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Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+ - HANDOUT TO PRESENTATION SLIDES Automation & Robotics in Passenger Travel & Airline Processes - Lehrstuhl ...
Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

    Automation in
Commercial Aviation
             2030+
Automation & Robotics in Passenger Travel & Airline
                                       Processes
          HANDOUT TO PRESENTATION SLIDES
Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+ - HANDOUT TO PRESENTATION SLIDES Automation & Robotics in Passenger Travel & Airline Processes - Lehrstuhl ...
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Intro | Copyright Statement

    Copyright Technische Universität München, Airbus, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V, München, 2017.
    Study performed by Technische Universität München, Airbus, Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V, ifmo and
    Flughafen München without any commercial interest.
    Please note that all results, diagrams and pictures documented in this handout are only for
    internal use. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the
    expressed written consent of the Institute of Aircraft Design, Technische Universität München,
    Airbus and Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.

    Munich & Hamburg, January 2017

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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Intro | Project Responsibilities

    Technische Universität München
    Gilbert Tay

    Airbus Operations GmbH
    Axel Becker

    Process Design & Moderation
    Axel Becker / Gilbert Tay

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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Intro | Contact

    Technische Universität München   Airbus Operations GmbH
    Lehrstuhl für Luftfahrtsysteme   Cabin Marketing
    Boltzmannstraße 15               Kreetslag 10
    85747 Garching                   21129 Hamburg
    Gilbert Tay, M.Sc.               Dipl.-Ing. Axel Becker
    Tel: +49 (0) 89 289 16708        Tel: +49 (0) 40 743 68512
    gilbert.tay@tum.de               axel.becker@airbus.com
    www.llls.mw.tum.de               www.airbus.com

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Intro | Project Participants
    STUDENTS                  EXPERTS

    Martin      Azzouni       Gilbert     Tay              - Lehrstuhl für Luftfahrsysteme
    Iason       Bausewein     Axel        Becker           - Airbus
    Alexander   Depser        Annika      Paul             - Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V.
    Marc        Hirschka      Kai         Plöttner         - Bauhaus Luftfahrt e.V
    Robin       Karpstein     Peter       Phleps           - Institut für Mobilitätsforschung (ifmo)
    Florian     Meindl        Christoph   Schneider        - Flughafen München GmbH
    Daniel      Metzler       Jördis      Därr             - Airbus
    Patrick     Muschak       Kevin       Keniston         - Airbus
    Jacob       Nowak
    Flavio      Rehn
    Christina   Rosenmöller
    Julian      Schmid
    Thomas      Schönberger

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Intro | Table of Contents
         1. Welcome – Prof. Mirko Hornung (BHL/LLS), Axel Becker (Airbus)                                7

         2. Topic Motivation - Gilbert Tay (TUM)                                                       12

         3. Project and Scenario Approach – Gilbert Tay (TUM)                                          15

         3. Description of Scenario Results – Students                                                 20

             – Scenario A                                                                              25

             – Scenario B                                                                              42

             – Scenario C                                                                              57

         4. Synthesis of Scenario Results – Students                                                   73

         5. Conclusions & Outlook – Students                                                           89

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Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+ - HANDOUT TO PRESENTATION SLIDES Automation & Robotics in Passenger Travel & Airline Processes - Lehrstuhl ...
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                             Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

                                        Welcome
          Prof. Mirko Hornung (TUM/BHL), Axel Becker (Airbus)

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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Welcome | Overview Institute of Aircraft Design

    As part of the Institute for Aerospace at the Technische Universität München the
    Institute of Aircraft Design focuses on the three topics:

                Scenario Analysis,        Aircraft Design               Analysis & Evaluation of
                 Future Trends &          (civil & military)             Air Transport Systems
                  Technologies

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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Welcome | Main Objectives

What are the main objectives of the practical course
„Air Transport Scenarios“ at TUM?
                                                                                                     cross-system
                                                                                                    thinking within
• To deepen the insight into the cross impacts within the air                                           aviation
  transport system on basis of a specific issue
• Presentation of scenario techniques as a methodology for                                         presentation of
  strategic planning                                                                                  scenario
                                                                                                    methodology
• Strengthening of soft skills:
  structured communication, organization and discussion
  within groups and plenum, presentation of complex results                                       strengthening of
                                                                                                      soft skills

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“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Welcome | History

10th Scenario project of Airbus with TU München &
Bauhaus Luftfahrt

• Airbus is supporting the lecture since 2006.
• Since 2015 as integrated part
  of Airbus Cabin Marketing (before Cabin Innovation).
• Working with scenarios to better understand future
  market developments.
• Close co-operations with internal and external
  stakeholders.
• “Green Airlines” scenario in 2015 part of Airbus´
  sustainability approach

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Welcome | Focus Airbus
Automation & Robotics in Aviation
• Airlines & airports embrace smartphones as digital
  companions to further guide passengers towards a
  self-service environment along travel chain.
• Increasing applications and trials of automation & robotics
  along passenger travel chain and airline operations.
• Drones and robots further drive airline and airport process
  efficiency with smart humanoid service robots allowing an
  "emotionalization" of the human machine interface.
• Identification of cabin-related needs and opportunities in
  Airbus cabin strategy, R&T and innovation portfolio.
• Offer opportunities for internships and thesis projects in
  Airbus Cabin Marketing.

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           Topic Motivation
                                 Gilbert Tay (TUM)

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Topic Motivation | „Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+“
• Maintaining a competitive cost structure is crucial for airlines, amidst a
  persisting challenging operating environment. I.e. cost pressures to
  maximize overall productivity on one hand, ensuring more consistent
  operations at high standards as well as removing other constraints to
  growth.
• Automation along the passenger journey and in airline operations has been
  taking place in the last couple of years. E.g. self-service check-ins, bag-
  drop counters, automated boarding gates.
• Technology is advancing fast in automation, robotics and artificial
  intelligence:
      More automation in other fields of transportation and tourism
      Exploring opportunities of more automation in passenger & airline
         processes
      Major investments made in these new fields of technology
• Challenges:
     Passenger & user acceptance
     Regulation & certification issues incl. safety & health issues
     Relationships with crews, ground support staff and labour unions

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Topic Motivation Main Questions Addressed in the
                 Scenario Project
    Topic                Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+
    Region               Global
    Time Frame           2016 - 2030

    Key questions:
    1. How will future business models and strategies change in the air transport sector within an
       increasing „automation“ along passenger, airline and airport processes?
    2. How will passenger and staff acceptance be influenced by more automation?
    3. What are the „touch points“ (hardware & software) and core technologies along the entire
       travel chain („Door-2-Door“) and in airline processes?
    4. What could be definitions for different grades of automation and the use of robots?

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           Project & Scenario
                    Approach
                                   Gilbert Tay (TUM)

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Project & Scenario Approach | Scenario Techniques

Scenario techniques help to cope with
uncertainty in future developments

A scenario is a consistent picture of a
comprehensive, future situation
and
a description of how this situation has                                Source: Daimler STRG
emerged

                 The question is not what will happen but what might happen?

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Project & Scenario Approach | Scenario Approach at LLS
Methodical approach of scenario projects at TUM-LLS
                       Scenario transfer

                                           Problem
                                           definition

                           Implication                           Environment
                            analysis                               analysis

                           Scenario                              Consistency
                                                        2030
                          storyboards                             analysis

                                             Scenario
                                           frameworks

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Project & Scenario Approach | Overview

                        Automation Environmental Analysis – Status Quo 2016
           Kick-Off
                          Introduction to current developments and applications

                                            Golden Age of Automation                  Scenario presentations:
          Workshop 1                                                                  • Scenario description
                                            Inclusive Development
                                                                                      • Travel-Chain Analysis
                                            Security First                            • SWOT-Analysis

          Workshop 2           Travel Chain Analysis – In 3 Scenarios 2030
                       Operational Implementation                             SWOT-Analysis

                                                                                                 Awareness
                       Derivation of various Grades of Automation

                                                                      Passenger
          Workshop 3
                         Various Scenario-Specific Stakeholder                    2030                       2030
                                     Implications
                                                                                  •   Airlines               •   Visibility

                                                                      •

                                                                                                 •
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Project & Scenario Approach | Intro to Student’s Presentation

                                  To be presented now

            Environment
              analysis
                                             Golden Age of
                                             Automation
                                                                       Structure of the
                                                                       three Scenario
                                                                       presentations:
                                             Inclusive
                                                                       • Scenario
                                             Development                 description
                                                                       • Travel-Chain
                                                                         Analysis
                                             Security First            • Stakeholder
                                                                         SWOT-Analysis

                          today      2030

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             Description of
           Scenario Results
                                             Students

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Scenario Results | Overview of Scenario Factors

    ECONOMICS, POLITICS &
                                              TECHNOLOGY                     SOCIAL & PASSENGER                      AIRLINE & AIRPORTS
        REGULATIONS

•   Political stability & security   •   Development of ICT             •   Passenger acceptance of            •   Market structure of mobility
    situation                        •   Cyber-attack threats for           automatization along travel            service providers
•   Legal framework for                  automated systems                  process                            •   Use of automation to improve
    automation technologies          •   Reliability of automated       •   Traffic load along passenger           workplace safety
•   Economic efficiency of               integrated systems                 processes                          •   Position of unions on
    automated systems                •   Market penetration of          •   Development of air travel              introduction of automation
•   Investment propensity on             advanced physical automated        demand                             •   Quality of access to airport
    automation technologies              systems                        •   Demographic development            •   Airport security practices
                                     •   Development of collaborative                                          •   Level of automation during
                                         data management                                                           aircraft ground handling
                                     •   Potential for travel time
                                         reduction from D2D

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Scenario Results | Uncertainty-Impact (UI) Analysis
              20

 rather
uncertain                                                                 Security situation                                                                                        Technology
                                                                          (Political stability)                                                                                     development
                                                                                                                                                 Technological advancement
              16                                                                                                                                                                    in ICT and A.I.
                                                                                                                                                  of physical automation and
                                                                                                                                                           robotics (incl. A.I.)
                                                                                                                                                                    User acceptance
                                                     Mobility service providers
                                                                                                        Infrastructure capacity
                                                     (Airlines and 3rd-parties)               Legal                                                                 Data and
              12                                                                                        (D2D and Airport)
                                                                                                                                                                    cybersecurity
UNCERTAINTY

                                                                                              framework
                                                      Accessibility of airports                                  Travel (time)         Automation
                                                      (Door-2-Door)                                              efficiency            system reliaility
                                        Ecology of                                     Individualisation                       Data management
                                automated systems                                      of pax needs         Airport security and sharing
                                                              Air traffic demand                            regulations        Investment
               8                                                                         User experience                       propensity
                                                                                         and expectations
                                           Consumer know-how                             Influence of unions                                                        Economics of
                                                                                 Ground-handling
                                           and perception                        automation (GSE)                                                                   automation

                                                              Workplace safety
               4

  rather                                                                                             Demographic development
  certain                                                                                            (aging / restricted accessibility)

               0
                   0                                 4                                    8                                   12                               16                                 20
                       less important                                                                  IMPACT                                                              very important

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Scenario Results | Criteria of Research

       RELEVANCE                                      DISSIMILITUDE

  1    To have impact, the scenarios
       should connect directly with the
       mental maps and concerns of the
       user.
                                            3         The scenarios should be archetypal
                                                      and describe generically different
                                                      futures rather than variations of one
                                                      theme.

                                                      LASTING EQUILIBRIUM
                                                      Each scenario ideally should

  2                                         4
       INTERNAL CONSISTENCY
                                                      describe an equilibrium or a state in
       The scenarios should be internally
                                                      which the system might exist for
       consistent to be effective.
                                                      some length of time, as opposed to
                                                      being highly transient.

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 Scenario Results | 3 Scenarios at a Glance

                   A                                          B                                                       C

         Golden Ages of                                 Inclusive                                             Security First
          Automation                                  Development
Revolutionary technological developments   Coevolution instead of revolution                     Automation in aviation in a hesitant world
+ high investments in the industry         Incremental introduction of user focused              & turbulent times

+ Passengers expect highly personalized    and faultless automatization systems                  Ongoing cyber attacks
services                                   + high cooperation between MSPs                        strict national standards and regulations
                                            integrated D2D travel                                investor distrust and lack of passenger
                                                                                                 acceptance for automated systems

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                              Scenario A

           Golden Ages of
              Automation

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Scenario A | Storyboard

The worldwide political situation is still tense but there aren’t any
escalations. International trade agreements have been established
between Europe, USA and South Korea which encourages the global
trade market, securing an annual average GDP growth of 1.5% in
Europe and Northern America. Due to the continued accelerated
globalization the strong economic growth of BRICS states will
continue, averaging at about 3.5%.
Thanks to the stable economy and political situation, air travel
demand increases by an average of 5.5% annually. Even though
processes are streamlined, more planes are indispensable over time.
Manual and semi-autonomous systems are being replaced by fully
autonomous systems in high risk areas to increase workplace safety.
Thanks to AI, ground support vehicles now drive autonomously,           für Automatisierung
reducing costs and time between overhaul for airlines and airports.
Tasks like refuelling the plane with water and kerosene are fulfilled
automatically. This leads to reduced costs for airports and airlines.

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Scenario A | Storyboard
In 2022, the Federal Ministry of Automation is founded in Germany,
based on a Japanese proof of concept in 2021. It is designed around
the principles of lean management and is in itself highly automated
and flexible. Its competences are: Setting standards for automated
systems and providing certification marks, as well as working
internationally to reduce the threat of cyber attacks and actively
pushing the development of automated systems by providing
subsidies.
The federal ministries of automation of the western hemisphere
collaborate in the Global Automation Treaty (GAT, 2024) to
encourage investments in start-ups around automated technologies
through tax incentives. The demand for well educated people is very
high.
In disputes between stakeholders and unions in the EU, the unions
achieved a guideline, obligating the industry to offer re-education for
at least 80% of the affected workforce. However, in developing
countries like India and Bangladesh, the integration of young, low
qualified workers represents a big problem, as the fight continues
between unemployed people and the application of automated
systems. Bangladesh’s Attempt to ban automated systems if they
take away jobs from humans backfired, resulting in an economic            world education index
crisis in Bangladesh which is still affecting peoples lives today.

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Scenario A | Storyboard
In 2030 the average passenger expects to see a cheap, yet
personalized travel experience. To meet this expectation high quality
data around each passenger is generated and shared between the
single service providers to achieve a comfortable, fast and easy D2D
chain.
The traffic load on the way to the airports decreases, even though air
travel demand rises. Based on worldwide standards for autonomous
driving established at GAT in 2024, automated vehicles such as
drones, cars, busses and trains prevent traffic jams, especially in the
dedicated autonomous lanes, where they are able to drive faster and
reduce the safe distance. This significantly improves the quality of
access to the airport for the passenger. Autonomous cars are often
offered in car sharing services, creating the advantage that the
passenger doesn’t have to drive, as well as worrying about a parking
spot. The big parking lots are now used for autonomous vehicles
from car sharing services offered by the airport as well as for rental
parking space to preserve airport earnings.
In 2027, the first drone taxi pilot project is tested which evolved from
the Airbus Vahana project. With this approach, even more time can
be saved during the D2D travel time.

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Scenario A | Storyboard

Upon arriving at the airport, the passenger checks in at the safety
gate by showing his ticket and ID. The baggage is being dropped off
at the automated station. The system matches the ID with the face-
scanner data, screens the person and guides the passenger to his
gate on moving walkways. If the algorithms trigger a warning, the
passenger is further screened by security staff.
For airports, the integration of automation initially caused a problem.
A lot less space is needed, as baggage drop, security check and
emigration merge, as well as immigration, baggage claim and
customs. The attempt to fill out these areas with more customer
attractions failed in part as passenger servicing time was reduced.
Later on this problem was resolved by the rising air demand,
implicating an higher amount of passengers.

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Scenario A | Storyboard

A lot is at stake with the strong market penetration of ICT. Cyber
criminals are continuously launching attacks to gain access to high
quality data, but as the systems revolutionized in the recent years,
major IT systems are robust, so that they detect and defend against
most attacks independently.
In 2026 the Geneva Cyber Convention (GCC) is adopted, entailing
political rules for cyber warfare, prohibiting attacks on civilians (data
leaks) and attacks on critical infrastructure (trains, nuclear reactors,
autonomous cars, electricity grid, …). Also the threat coming from
non-government cyber criminals was recognized. First steps to build
an international team to defend critical infrastructure and the
population from those attacks worldwide were taken and since
further expanded.

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Scenario A | Storyboard
In addition to the high market penetration of ICT, the revolutionary
physical automated systems effectively lower processing times for
the passenger. The intuitive interfaces for the passenger are well
accepted by tech-savvy travelers, however older generations have a
hard time trusting the new systems. As AI still has not reached a
humanoid level of intelligence, service points, customer care and
other jobs that require human cognitive functions as emotions and
creativity are still occupied by humans. Media agencies mostly
report positively about the application of new systems on behalf of
the ministries to support user acceptance.
In the background, some ground handling tasks are still being done
manually since the architecture of planes hardly changed. However,
the workforce is supported by exoskeletons and other highly
adaptable automated systems.
The high reliability level needed for the complex tasks in the
background as well as on the interface to humans is guaranteed
through machine certifications by the federal ministries of
automation which confirm an average operating time of at least         privacy ranking 2007
99.65%
 After the big hacking disaster in 2023, where the database of the
John-F.-Kennedy Airport was hacked and released to public, cyber-
attacks became increasingly unsuccessful, due to robust defense
systems since then.
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Scenario A | Storyboard

The attitude towards data privacy is relatively unchanged compared
to 2016. Society is divided – many fear the effects of big data, but
ironically they still share every little bit of it if it brings them any
benefit. On the other side data privacy activists warn of this
development and demand a more transparent handling of data by
big companies. They achieve the Worldwide Data-usage Act in 2024,
giving the customer the ability to object commercial data usage.

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Scenario A | Core Messages

                                               Continuous economic growth
    Political Stability & Security situation
                                               Political stability comparable to status quo

                                               Revolutionary soft- & hardware development → high
                      Development of ICT       market penetration of automated systems

                Investment Propensity on       Tax incentives, need to keep up with market, cost
                             Automation        cutting, …

      Expectation towards personalized         Passengers expect highly personalized services due to
                           experience          high data availability

             Traffic load along passenger      Non-invasive and highly automated security checks
                                processes      enable lower travel time

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Scenario A | Timeline
                      Political tensions in                     Critical data leak at New             Geneva cyber
                      middle east continue                      York JFK airport                      convention regulates
                                                                                                      cyber warfare

    2018              2019              2022                    2023              2025                2026                 2030

                                        Federal ministry of
                                        automation encourages
                                        development through
                                        legal frameworks.                                                                  Fully integrated and
                                        Industry must offer                                                                automated security,
    Maiden flight Airbus                                                          Extensive use of                         check-in and baggage
                                        reeducation and
    Vahana                                                                        automated travel                         drop processes
                                        improved workplace
                                        safety
                                          Bundesministerium
                                          für Automatisierung

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Scenario A | Travel Chain
                                                Baggage Drop, Security &                            Retail, Shopping,
          Booking & Planning
                                                 Emigration/Immigration                             Lounge & Waiting

  •   Artificial Intelligence as Personal   •   Passenger Screening & Profiling           •   Personalized Information with regards
      Assistant                             •   Aviation AI                                   to flight/shopping/F&B
                                                                                          •   Personalized Routing to
                                                                                              Gate/Shopping

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Scenario A | Travel Chain
                                                   Bus Transfer & Ground
            Gate / Boarding                                                                             In-Flight / Cabin
                                                         Handling

  •   Artificial Intelligence monitors       •   Autonomous vehicles operate on the          •   No Money on board. Cash less
      passenger throughout Terminal -> No        tarmac (Up until interface with the A/C)        payment through facial recognition by
      ID Check required anymore              •   Aircraft Surveillance                           AI linked to boarding Ticket (Billing
  •   Boarding optimized with respect to                                                         information)
                                             •   Drones support Pre-Flight Check
      passenger Comfort enabled through AI                                                   •   Automated Service Robots
                                                                                             •   More differentiation between booking
                                                                                                 classes

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Scenario A | Travel Chain
           Baggage Claim &                                                                           Aircraft MRO Between
                                                       Customer Feedback
              Customs                                                                                         Flights

  •   AI reunites baggage & passenger on       •   Personal Assistant on smartphone            •   Automated Anti-Germs Warfare
      automated even escalator (Human is           gathers Feedback                            •   No unauthorized access through
      moved on conveyer belt)                  •   Facial recognition enables AI to identify       Aircraft Surveillance
  •   Screened baggage is either cleared           current state of well-being                 •   Maintenance inspections by drones
      together with passenger or rerouted to
      Customs

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Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier
    STRENGTHS                                                                     WEAKNESSES
    •   Market share                  •   Existing alliances / co-                •   Dependent on hub airport •       High fix costs (e.g. pilots)
    •                                     operations                                  development
        Number of offered                                                                                      •       Rather slow in innovation
        destinations                  •   Internal technology &                   •   Missing flexibility / old        topics
    •   Data / experience / know          system operation                            structures / strong unions
        customer groups very              capabilities / know-how                     / etc.
        well (frequent traveler  •        Good co-operation with                  •   Limited door-to-door
        programs)                         their main hub(s)
                                                                      SW              capabilities / know-how

OPPORTUNITIES
                                                                      O T         THREATS
•       High-end / tailored     •         Enhance efficiency of hub               •   Too slow to cope with
        experience for customer           operations                                  revolutionary
        groups                                                        FSC             development
•       Extending travel chain                                                    •   Difficulty in replacing
        beyond classical                                                              humans with automations
        departure and arrival /                                                       (unions: 80% of staff)
        possibility to cooperate                                                  •   Problems in competing
        with MSP / other airlines /                                                   with prices of LCCs
        etc.

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Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier
    STRENGTHS                                                                  WEAKNESSES
    •   Consistently profitable     •   More flexible due to the               •   Offer to the passenger       •   Limited growth potential
    •                                   route network
        Cost efficiency                                                        •   Not present at major         •   Limited internal
        (outsource many                  choice of destinations
                                                                                   airports                         technology & system
        services, low capital      •    Offer to the passenger                                                      operation capabilities /
                                                                               •   Not compelling to high
        investments  flexibility)                                                                                  know-how
                                                                                   value customers
    •   Rather fast in innovation                                                                               •   Lower yields in general
                                                                               •
        topics
                                                                   SW              Image issues

OPPORTUNITIES
                                                                   O T         THREATS
•       Greater efficiency of       •   Better understand                      •   Airport and passenger     •       FSCs can achieve similar
        aircraft and passenger          customer base                              handling costs are higher         cost efficiency due to
        services due to greater
        automation
                                                                   LCC         •   Passengers expect highly          automated services
                                                                                   personalized services
•       Change service providers                                                   due to high data
        who offer better services                                                  availability
        for lower costs

                                                                                                                                          Slide 39
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport
    STRENGTHS                                                                  WEAKNESSES
    •   Network of destinations •      High yield passengers                   •   Capacity constraints due •       Dependence on transfer
    •   Economies of scale    •        Passenger differentiation                   to high traffic                  market
        (Passenger, A/C                                                            (esp. during peak hours) •       Physical infrastructure
                              •        Accessibility of
        movements) and scope           intermodal transportation               •   Strong dependency on             development
        (synergies)                                                                network carrier
                              •        Co-operation / -branding                                             •       Often location in urban
    •   Diversity of business          with “home” network                     •   Long distances within            areas limits options to
        segments                       carrier                     SW              terminals                        expand

OPPORTUNITIES
                                                                   O T         THREATS
•       Process optimization       •   Support from the                        •   Autonomous driving      •         Greater potential for
•       Creating new capacity          government                                  outcomes of automation:           cyber-attacks
•       Easing the traveler's
                                                                   HUB             non-used infrastructure
        journey                                                                •   Difficulty to tackle needs
                                                                                   of inhomogeneous
•       Tailored passenger                                                         passenger group through
        information                                                                standardized full-scale
•       Personalized advertising                                                   automation

                                                                                                                                          Slide 40
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario A | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport
    STRENGTHS                                                                  WEAKNESSES
    •   More growth potential      •   Proximity to destinations               •   Few transit passengers        •   Consumer expectations of
    •                                  with high awareness and                                                       international passenger
        More regional and local                                                •   Cannot stimulate growth
        stakeholder focused –          appeal                                                                        experience (retail etc.)
                                                                                   beyond a ceiling
        ability to work together
                                                                               •   Higher cost of other on-      •   More limited ground
        to support new routes                                                                                        transport options
                                                                                   airport service providers
        and build airline
                                                                               •                                 •   Limited cargo potential
        confidence
                                                                   SW              Peak hour infrastructure
                                                                                   pressure                      •   Highly seasonal

OPPORTUNITIES
                                                                   O T         THREATS
•       Development of                                                         •   Regional competition
        autonomous vehicles                                                        dedicated to easier way
•       Easy shopping, cashless                                    2ND             of access to airport
        payment                                                                •   High investments to
•       More detailed                                                              remain market leader
        personalized passenger                                                     (continuous development
        database  existing                                                        of technology)
        customer base

                                                                                                                                          Slide 41
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                           Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

                               Scenario B

              Inclusive
           Development
           Coevolution Instead of Revolution

Slide 42
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                      Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Storyboard

Until 2030 the global GDP has increased by 2,5% annually, as well
as the air travel demand, which increased 4,5% a year.
The increase of political instability and the continuing high threat of
cyber-attacks, have lead to an overall higher demand in security and
reliability for automated systems. Only the best systems, in terms of
safety and reliability, are introduced.
As politics are focused on other topics (due to political instability),
automation technologies are marginally regulated by legal
frameworks, what leads to few standards in this sector. Only security
relevant processes have high requirements.

                                                                                                             Slide 43
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                    Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Storyboard

Therewith, due to the high market demand physical and ICT
automation technologies have been improved continuously and
introduced stepwise as mature technologies. They are broadly used
in all phases of the journey and can be found in almost all major
airports around the world in the form of (semi-) automated systems,
working with a high reliability comparative to the level of non-
automated systems in 2016 and a increased economic efficiency.
Examples for automated systems: fully automated security check,
baggage drop off, immigration/emigration.
To address customer demands, existing MSPs have started
collaborating on a large scale by offering integrated D2D
transportation services. Enabled by bilateral sharing of high quality
data between collaborating MSPs, a customer can book his journey
from D2D through a single portal and then experience the
transportation services of the different MSPs as one product.

                                                                                                           Slide 44
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                    Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Storyboard

Therewith, due to the high market demand physical and ICT
automation technologies have been improved continuously and
introduced stepwise as mature technologies. They are broadly used
in all phases of the journey and can be found in almost all major
airports around the world in the form of (semi-) automated systems,
working with a high reliability comparative to the level of non-
automated systems in 2016 and a increased economic efficiency.
Examples for automated systems: fully automated security check,
baggage drop off, immigration/emigration.
To address customer demands, existing MSPs have started
collaborating on a large scale by offering integrated D2D
transportation services. Enabled by bilateral sharing of high quality
data between collaborating MSPs, a customer can book his journey
from D2D through a single portal and then experience the
transportation services of the different MSPs as one product.

                                                                                                           Slide 45
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                       Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Storyboard

Quality of access to airports has been enhanced in terms of travel
duration, comfort and individualization: Automated technologies are
performing most of the tasks previously done by passengers during
their travel. Therefore, passengers have more time and can enjoy
customer tailored services along the journey for example.
The traffic load along the passenger processes has not greatly
changed: Automation has improved efficiency and process times
leading to higher airport capacities, however passenger numbers
have risen simultaneously, so that the overall reduction in D2D travel
time has been moderate. A case example for this can be the
following: A passenger can check in his baggage in the autonomous
vehicle driving him to his terminal and leave it there, and then pick it
up again once he has reached his final journey destination. Thus
waiting times for baggage drop off and pick up are avoided,
increasing the overall throughput capacity of the airport.

                                                                                                              Slide 46
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                    Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Storyboard
In many fields, automation is found in the form of semi-automated
systems, requiring a human operator in a supervising function. E.g.
non-intrusive automated security systems have been introduced,
with special checks performed by humans if necessary; Ground
handling is partly automated, with human operators still required for
special or safety critical tasks.
Since human operators are still a required part of the (semi-
)automated system and work safety has improved due to automation
(physically demanding tasks are executed by machines), unions have
not opposed the introduction of automation.
New technologies in commercial aviation are introduced
incrementally and therefore do not overwhelm the customer. Instead
of introducing revolutionary, immature technologies, the introduced
automatization developments are working faultless and reliable,
leading to a high acceptance among passengers.
In this world automation doesn’t revolutionize the way of travelling
immediately but rather slowly and steadily, therefore it doesn’t
overwhelm all involved parties (passengers, the market, all
stakeholders). Revolution always leads to conflict in certain areas
(regulation, passenger acceptance, unions) but a inclusive
coevolution, where human and machine work alongside each other
might result in a plausible and bright scenario for the future of
automation in commercial aviation.
                                                                                                           Slide 47
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Core Messages

                                         Airport throughput capacity and RPK increase  load
     Development of Air Travel Demand    factor remains unchanged

     Expectation Towards Personalized    The passenger of 2030 demands a personalized travel
                          Experience     experience

                                         Incremental introduction of customer focused and
             Evolutionary Development    faultless automatization systems

     Development of Collaborative Data   High cooperation between MSPs  integrated D2D
                         Management      travel

             Passenger Acceptance of     High acceptance for semi-automated systems among all
                         Automation      passengers

                                                                                                                Slide 48
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Timeline
                      Lufthansa offers                  BMW start series                       (Semi-)automated
                      integrated D2D travel             production of                          airports show great rise
                      service                           autonomous cars                        in capacity, increasing
                                                                                               profitability while
                                                                                               simultaneously lowering
                                                                                               landing fees

    2018              2019             2022             2025               2029               2033                2035

    Car sharing available in           Japanese government                 World’s first (semi-)                  Almost all major airports
    every major city                   promotes the                        automated airport                      are (semi-)automated,
                                       development of an                   emerges in Japan                       with automatization
                                       (semi-)automated airport                                                   being demanded and
                                       with research funds                                                        considered as normal by
                                                                                                                  passengers

                                                                                                                                      Slide 49
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Travel Chain
                                               Baggage Drop, Security &                              Retail, Shopping,
          Booking & Planning
                                                Emigration/Immigration                               Lounge & Waiting

  •   Integrated planning, booking &       •   Bag pick up robots  trolley robots are     •   Personalized travel information through
      ticketing                                available in all important airport areas        personal electronics
  •   Due to cooperating MSPs D2D travel   •   Baggage can be “checked-in” inside of       •   Info on best paths / routes through the
      products can be booked under one         autonomous cars                                 airport, shopping suggestions, time /
      ticket                               •   Fully automated security check with             duration / delay information, info on
  •   Integrated D2D-travel                    human operator on (only) supervising            destination
                                               function                                    •   Waiting areas are becoming more and
                                                                                               more obsolete due to better (i.e. more
                                                                                               time-efficient) connections

                                                                                                                                         Slide 50
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Travel Chain
                                        Bus Transfer & Ground
            Gate / Boarding                                                                  In-Flight / Cabin
                                              Handling

  •   Fully automated             •   Automated busses (controlled by             •   Highly personalized in-flight
  •   Exact prediction                ground / apron controller)                      entertainment
  •   Display of boarding times   •   Human operators still present (on / off     •   Recommendations based on previous
                                      loading of aircraft bulk cargo), but            travels and on travel destination
                                      assisted by automated technologies
                                      (exoskeletons)
                                  •   Push back vehicles fully automated
                                      (but: push back command issued by
                                      human ground/apron controller)

                                                                                                                                Slide 51
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Travel Chain
            Baggage Claim &                                                                             Aircraft MRO Between
                                                          Customer Feedback
               Customs                                                                                           Flights

  •   Baggage delivery in autonomous car to       •   Data is gathered actively                   •   Refueling and replenish of goods only
      final destination ( integrated D2D)            (questionnaires) and passively(other            supervised
  •   Baggage delivery directly to final              data / behavior) throughout the travel      •   Inspection and deicing by drones
      destination (independent of passenger                                                           operated by humans
      travel from airport to final destination)                                                   •   Rubbish collecting robot
  •   Customs procedures only automated in
      countries where shopping data are
      shared with government agencies
      (customs)

                                                                                                                                                Slide 52
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier
    STRENGTHS                                                               WEAKNESSES
    •   Market share             •   Existing alliances / co-               •   Dependent on hub airport •       High fix costs (e.g. pilots)
    •                                operations                                 development
        Number of offered                                                                                •       Rather slow in innovation
        destinations             •   Internal technology &                  •   Missing flexibility / old        topics
    •   Data / experience / know     system operation                           structures / strong unions
        customer groups very         capabilities / know-how                    / etc.
        well (frequent traveler  •   Good co-operation with                 •   Limited door-to-door
        programs)                    their main hub(s)
                                                                SW              capabilities / know-how

OPPORTUNITIES
                                                                O T         THREATS
•       Evolutionary tech       •    Possibility to cooperate               •   Choose higher revenues
        development fits             with MSP  Extending                       instead of innovations
        inflexible company
        structures
                                     travel chain               FSC         •   Problems to compete
                                                                                with lower prices of LCCs
•       Automation is not                                                   •   Decrease in non-aviation
        perceived as cost                                                       revenues
        reduction measurement

                                                                                                                                       Slide 53
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | Low Cost Carrier
    STRENGTHS                                                                  WEAKNESSES
    •   Consistently profitable     •   More flexible due to the               •   Offer to the passenger       •   Limited growth potential
    •                                   route network
        Cost efficiency                                                        •   Not present at major         •   Limited internal
        (outsource many                  choice of destinations
                                                                                   airports                         technology & system
        services, low capital      •    Offer to the passenger                                                      operation capabilities /
                                                                               •   Not compelling to high
        investments  flexibility)                                                                                  know-how
                                                                                   value customers
    •   Rather fast in innovation                                                                               •   Lower yields in general
                                                                               •
        topics
                                                                   SW              Image issues

OPPORTUNITIES
                                                                   O T         THREATS
•       Blurred lines between                                                  •   FSC can achieve similar
        FSC and LCC                                                                cost efficiency
        encourages LCC to
        acquire FSCs
                                                                   LCC         •   High cooperation
                                                                                   between MSP and FSC is
•       Long-haul flights become                                                   not offered to LCC
        attractive to LCCs                                                     •   Passengers expect highly
•       Higher process & cost                                                      personalized services
        efficiency

                                                                                                                                          Slide 54
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | HUB Airport
    STRENGTHS                                                                WEAKNESSES
    •   Network of destinations •    High yield passengers                   •   Capacity constraints due •       Dependence on transfer
    •   Economies of scale    •      Passenger differentiation                   to high traffic                  market
        (Passenger, A/C                                                          (esp. during peak hours) •       Physical infrastructure
                              •      Accessibility of
        movements) and scope         intermodal transportation               •   Strong dependency on             development
        (synergies)                                                              network carrier
                              •      Co-operation / -branding                                             •       Often location in urban
    •   Diversity of business        with “home” network                     •   Long distances within            areas limits options to
        segments                     carrier                     SW              terminals                        expand

OPPORTUNITIES
                                                                 O T         THREATS
•       New business models      •   Through the use of semi-                •   Introduction of new
        for Airport                  automatization                              technologies can be
•       Gradual implementation       expectations of
                                     inhomogeneous
                                                                 HUB             more expensive due to
                                                                                 lack of standardization
        of technologies is
        possible                     passenger group can be                  •   Risk of unused / empty
                                     met                                         infrastructures

                                                                                                                                        Slide 55
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario B | Stakeholder Analysis | “Secondary” Airport
    STRENGTHS                                                                  WEAKNESSES
    •   More growth potential      •   Proximity to destinations               •   Few transit passengers        •   Consumer expectations
    •                                  with high awareness and                                                       of international passenger
        More regional and local                                                •   Cannot stimulate growth
        stakeholder focused –          appeal                                                                        experience (retail etc.)
                                                                                   beyond a ceiling
                                                                                   Higher cost of other on- •
        ability to work together                                                                                     More limited ground
                                                                               •
        to support new routes                                                                                        transport options
                                                                                   airport service providers
        and build airline
                                                                               •   Peak hour infrastructure •        Limited cargo potential
        confidence
                                                                   SW              pressure                      •   Highly seasonal

OPPORTUNITIES
                                                                   O T         THREATS
•       High acceptance                                                        •   Higher investments in
        between passengers                                                         technology to stay
•       Predictable passenger                                      2ND             competitive
        load and distribution                                                  •   High sophisticated
•       Evolutionary progress in                                                   customer expectations
        technology  constant                                                  •   Risk of unused / empty
        development                                                                infrastructures

                                                                                                                                          Slide 56
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                               Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

                                                   Scenario C

                              Security First
           Automation in Aviation in a Hesitant World & Turbulent
                                                           Times

Slide 57
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                       Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Storyboard
Multilateral co-operations between Western nations become weaker.
At the same time, an increasing number of threats and therefore
insecurities hinder the establishment of strong multinational
partnerships, while existing contracts are being broken up. This
results in a “reduced European Union” existing with its core
members only. This leads to heavily fluctuating exchange rates and
high risks and volatility on the financial markets. Moreover, after the
USA leaves the NATO due to an increasing distrust in military
collaboration, multiple other nations follow this incident. As a result,
Russia is able to establish stronger bonds under pressure with its
neighboring countries and new partners, including the USA in the
second row as well.
In the Middle East a new alliance, called "Middle Eastern
League"(M.E.L) is founded by the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
Bahrain and several other Arabian countries. One part of the contract
regulates freedom of trade and travel between its contract partners,
preferring M.E.L. states while reducing foreign trade and transport.
Meanwhile the World Bank estimates the worldwide economical
growth to less than 2% for the upcoming 20 years. The passenger air
traffic may increase by 4,5% due to high global population growth.

                                                                                                              Slide 58
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                      Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Storyboard

While the trust between nations decreases, a rising number of cyber
terrorist hacker attacks and threats affects the national security of
many countries. Moreover, a successful threat by, so called
hacktivists against AT&T diminishes public faith in American IT,
automated and intelligent systems. The occurrence is presented by
media coverage in an exaggerating negative way. Those incidents
make security to the key of all interest for all new strategic programs
at ICAO and for all other regulations in commercial aviation. New
special security guidelines for automation are established in every
possible working field. Most of the existing technologies are not able
to comply with those new standards. Therefore only high-standard
and expensive technologies can succeed in the market and will be
developed by nearly every single country or union on their own.

                                                                                                             Slide 59
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                     Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Storyboard
Most of those new revolutionary technologies in automation can not
be implemented due to a lack of public faith. Passengers tend to
refuse physical automated systems in comfort areas and sometimes
security areas as well because of negative media coverage about
former accidents. As an future projection example: After the
introduction of fully automated “robo-taxis” at the Frankfurt airport,
there has just been a slack demand and therefore those systems
could not be integrated in most of the other travel chains which are
connected to commercial aviation ground infrastructures. At the
same time, there are upcoming problems with the quality of access
at big airports. Strong growth of metropolitan areas result in high
traffic jams especially during peak hours. Automated systems could
solve those problems but besides the strict regulations the
investment costs are too high.
Although people try to avoid physical automated systems, most still
buy and use latest mobile devices, such as smartphones and tablets
with AI and other revolutionary technologies. ICT stays an integral
part of a passenger’s life and social media is further established as
the most popular communication tool. In general ICT users don´t
claim about commercial data sharing if search algorithms and
software tools are running automated in the background.

                                                                                                            Slide 60
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                   Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Storyboard

At Munich Airport an implementation of a new automated service
goes completely wrong: A university research project introduced an
application for smartphones to replace physical signs and airport
service staff for guidance through airport terminals. The app has
become a commercially successful business model which is sold to
other international airports as well after a short period of time
because unions couldn’t block the app introduction due to different
legal frameworks in different countries. One day, there has been a
complete system hack. The flight booking system broke down as
well because of billions of faked terminal-gate search app-requests.
As a result Munich Airport and all the other participating airports
remove the app and its support and return back to former terminal
service concepts which cost a multiple.

                                                                                                          Slide 61
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                      Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Storyboard
The low time efficiency of most commercial aviation services and
therefore additional waiting times in queues and traffic jams lead to
unpredictable travelling comfort for passengers. Moreover there is a
lack of incentives for collaboration between different mobility service
providers due to a strict legal framework. Contracts are barely
negotiable, due to new and harder job safety rules. Furthermore
high security standards make it hard for new business partners
entering the market or establishing international business
collaborations.
To improve the work conditions inside airports, American and
German unions fight for the implementation of semi-automated
systems for the airport security without reducing staff and workplace
safety and support as well e.g. with exoskeletons. In most of the
modern countries it is difficult to hire young staff for simple process
and production work. Moreover it is not allowed to hire immigrants
from foreign countries for those kinds of job. Most American airports
are under pressure to introduce a cost intensive mixture of direct and
indirect airport security methods. Because of new national U.S.-
security standards which have to be fulfilled by the connected
international airports as well the amount of incoming and outgoing
U.S.-flights has to be reduced.

                                                                                                             Slide 62
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+”
                                                                                      Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Storyboard

In Europe, some airports introduce new ICT technologies in their
airport information systems to enable real-time information between
employees achieving a more responsible and agile ICT-system. This
results in a higher workplace safety and improves the economic
efficiency of nearly all of the concerning systems. The generic
structure of those systems allows the implementation at most of the
major airports which have to sponsor the costs unwillingly. Unions in
Germany encourage the introduction of airport information systems
in order to achieve a higher level of workplace security and safety. In
modern international airports exoskeletons and comparable
technologies are being used as a standard, such as in new opened
airports in Istanbul, the Middle East and East Asia.

                                                                                                             Slide 63
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Core Messages
                                               NATO dissolves, EU & the € struggle, Arabian countries
    Political Stability & Security Situation   strengthen multilateral cooperation, Russia strengthens &
                                               increases USA cooperation

     Cyber Attack Threats on Automated         Ongoing attacks force economy and politics to national
                               Systems         regulation without international compatibility

                                               Low passenger acceptance & strict legal frameworks 
     Passenger Acceptance & Economic           slower market penetration & too high in investment costs
                            Efficiency         for automatization

    Workplace Safety, Airport Security &       Automated Systems are implemented in background
                     Position of Unions        processes and in non-public areas

                                               ICAO & other regulations put security as key interest for
                     Security Key Interest     all new strategic progams

                                                                                                                       Slide 64
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Timeline
                      EU and the Euro                    Unions fight for                      Most of the automation
                      currency struggle.                 automation technologies               technologies are too
                      Moreover, the UAE form             that support employees;               high in investment costs;
                      a stronger multilateral            there are hardly chances              problems with traffic
                      cooperation with Oman,             to hire young or                      jams, access to airports
                      Saudi Arabia, Qatar and            immigrant persons                     and passenger
                      other Arabian countries                                                  processes are increasing

    2016              2017             2020              2022              2025                2030                 2035
                                                                           Unions fight for                         Lower air traffic but also
    Political changes in the           Opening of the world‘s              automation technologies                  no economical growth
    USA and Europe; we                 largest airport in Dubai;           that support employees.                  (
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Travel Chain
                                                 Baggage Drop, Security &                            Retail, Shopping,
          Booking & Planning
                                                  Emigration/Immigration                             Lounge & Waiting

  •   Personalized marketing through         •   Automated systems are only in contact     •   Data trading formats for customer data
      cookies                                    with staff                                    exchange / sales
  •   Protection service for personal data   •   Information system for passengers         •   Customer profiling for understanding
  •   Hidden automation without contact          (data collection)                             processes within airport
      with customers                         •   Warning systems for dangerous loads       •   Autonomous customer transport
                                                                                               vehicle for people with limited mobility,
                                                                                               but often unused because of trust
                                                                                               issues

                                                                                                                                         Slide 66
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Travel Chain
                                                       Bus Transfer & Ground
             Gate / Boarding                                                                               In-Flight / Cabin
                                                             Handling

  •   Autonomous customer transport              •   Autonomous vehicle for people with         •   No obvious automation
      vehicle for people with limited mobility       limited mobility                           •   Single information systems and real-
  •   Less automation  less trust issues by     •   Exoskeletons help staff and aim for            time handling of data possible
      passengers                                     better workplace efficiency                •   No worldwide standards
  •   Information systems for employees are      •   Information systems are generated for
      a common auxiliary, sometimes with             each airport individually
      unreliable hardware

                                                                                                                                              Slide 67
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Travel Chain
            Baggage Claim &                                                                         Aircraft MRO Between
                                                      Customer Feedback
               Customs                                                                                       Flights

  •   Baggage scanning systems and early-      •   No obvious automation                      •   Staff is supported by exoskeletons, but
      warning systems for dangerous loads      •   Automation systems are not reliable            technology can’t replace special
  •   Information system for incoming              enough                                         machinery or staff
      passengers                               •   Certain happenings lead to wrong           •   Information systems (if they are used)
  •   Support of custom officers handling in       investments                                    get bigger, better, and more reliable
      unsecure situations                                                                     •   Every automation system means
                                                                                                  disproportinally high investment costs

                                                                                                                                            Slide 68
“Automation in Commercial Aviation 2030+” Final Presentation | 17.01.2017

Scenario C | Stakeholder Analysis | Full Service Carrier
    STRENGTHS                                                               WEAKNESSES
    •   Market share             •   Existing alliances / co-               •   Dependent on hub airport •       High fix costs (e.g. pilots)
    •                                operations                                 development
        Number of offered                                                                                •       Rather slow in innovation
        destinations             •   Internal technology &                  •   Missing flexibility / old        topics
    •   Data / experience / know     system operation                           structures / strong unions
        customer groups very         capabilities / know-how                    / etc.
        well (frequent traveler  •   Good co-operation with                 •   Limited door-to-door
        programs)                    their main hub(s)
                                                                SW              capabilities / know-how

OPPORTUNITIES
                                                                O T         THREATS
•       Able to meet security   •    Able to use personalized               •   Current flight plans         •    Image loss after
        regulations of hub           advertisement for                          might have to change              successful cyber attacks
        processes                    additional revenue         FSC             due to more border
                                                                                controls
                                                                                                                  is higher for FSCs in
                                                                                                                  comparison to LCCs
•       Able to introduce
        automated background                                                •   Heavy increase in D2D
        systems with new,                                                       travel times in
        standard-conform,                                                       comparison to
        reliable & secure ICT                                                   alternatives
        technology

                                                                                                                                       Slide 69
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