45 Billion Cameras by 2022 Fuel Business Opportunities - Five Year Visual Technology Market Analysis August 2017 - 5 Year Visual Tech Market ...
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45 Billion Cameras by 2022
Fuel Business Opportunities
Five Year Visual Technology Market Analysis
August 2017
1
Table of Contents
Introduction 3
…………………………………………………………………………………………….…
LDV Market Segments to Watch…………………………..7
Visual Technology Ecosystem Growth……14
Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………..…17
2Introduction 44,354,881,622 Cameras in the world by 2022, at minimum In this report a “camera” refers to a unique lens and sensor used for image capture. Over the next five years there will be a proliferation of cameras integrated into products across industries and markets. Nearly all inanimate objects will be begin to see, creating vast amounts of visual data across the visual technology ecosystem. Visual technologies are any technologies that capture, analyze, filter, display or distribute visual data for businesses or consumers. They typically leverage computer vision, machine learning and artificial intelligence. Taking into account the industries that will embed cameras into products, those that will add additional cameras to products, and new vision-enabled products that will arise, the number of cameras will grow at least 220% in the next five years.
Introduction Camera growth provides insight into where and how visual data will be captured, analyzed and interpreted. Cameras are no longer just for memories, they are becoming fundamental to improving business and personal lives. Most of the pictures captured in the years to come will never be seen by a human eye. Visual data comes in many forms such as images, videos, 2D, 3D, 4D, 6D, 360, LiDAR, Radar, Thermal, MRI, CAT Scans, Ultrasonic, infrared and visual point clouds among many others.
Introduction
A Paradigm Shift in Visual Data Capture
Smartphones have become synonymous with cameras plunging the Total Cameras (Billions)
traditional point-and-shoot & DSLR market to only 1.6% of cameras
sold in 2016.(1)
In the next five years, embedded cameras, like the ones in
smartphones, will become an essential component of nearly every 216%
Growth (2017-2022)
44.4
device used by businesses and consumers.
In this report a “camera” refers to a unique lens and sensor used for 36.0
image capture.(2) The goal of this research is to understand where
visual data will be created, analyzed and interpreted.
27.6
Over 30 industries were identified as having or expected to have
products with embedded cameras in the next five years. Of those, we 20.7
have included 12 industries in this first phase report(3). 17.4
14.0
Using industry data as a baseline for market sizes and historical growth
rates, a proprietary LDV model was developed using expert opinion to
predict integration of cameras, future growth, and expected adoption
rates(4). We believe this is a conservative projection of the market size.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
(1) CIPA, Mayflower Concepts & Gartner, Inc. (2) A 3D camera, like a stereo camera, for instance, is counted as two cameras due to the two
unique lenses/sensors they typically utilize. Sensors such as LiDAR, RADAR, etc. are not yet included in this report and will be addressed in 5
future research. (3) Industries not included in this first phase include, medical imaging, entertainment/broadcast media, inventory/logistics,
and military.(4) Adoption rates were determined through historical rates, product lifespan, and expert opinion.Introduction
Depth Capture & New Verticals Drive Growth
Growth in cameras in the next five years will be primarily driven by the move toward depth/3D capture and the integration of
cameras into a wide range of existing products.
2017 2022
14 Billion Cameras 44 Billion Cameras
Robots
7%
Security
3% Smart Home
18%
(2)
Other
18% Robots
9%
(1)
Handheld Cameras
Security 59%
(1)
Handheld Cameras 8%
72%
(2)
Other
6%
WearablesLDV Market Segments to Watch
LDV Market Segments To Watch
The primary drivers of growth in cameras over the next five years are depth capture, increased camera
integration and the emergence of new visually-enabled devices. The five below were chosen for their market
share, projected growth, and new business opportunities:
‣ Handheld Cameras
‣ Robots
‣ Smart Home
‣ Security & Surveillance
‣ WearablesLDV Market Segments to Watch: Handheld Cameras
Depth Capture Alone Will Double Cameras by 2022
Since 2012, the number of handheld cameras has nearly doubled. This Handheld Cameras
growth is attributable to the sharp rise in the use of smartphone
cameras instead of legacy cameras(1). By 2022, the number of cameras
will be nearly 12X the 2012 figures.(2)
Smartphones will continue to dominate visual capture. These cameras
will continue to lead the market due to the increase in smartphones
and the advent of depth capture providing 3D data via smartphones.
The number of cameras per device will at least double.
Around 2021, “High Definition” Smartphones, equipped with six to 13
different cameras will have zoom & depth functionalities of a DSLR via
its hardware and advances in computational photography.
Handheld 360 Degree Cameras and 3D Cameras are projected to grow
over the next five years(3) but will ultimately lose their market share to
3D and 360-enabled Smartphones.
By 2022, new smartphones and tablets will have at least four cameras 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
and will drive growth of content for Augmented & Virtual Reality.
Smartphone Smartphone (High Def) Tablet
Digital (Legacy) 3D
(1) Digital (legacy) cameras include traditional point-and-shoots, DSLRs, (2) CIPA, Mayflower Concepts & Gartner, Inc (3) Allied Market Research,
8
Global 3D Market Expected to Reach $7.6 Billion, 2014LDV Market Segments to Watch: Robots
Robotic Autonomy Achieved With Cameras
The key to robotic autonomy is vision. Cameras are the eyes for robots, delivering
0 Robots
real-time computer vision, machine learning and artificial intelligence to empower
the robot to understand visual data and operate (semi) autonomously.
Automotive: By 2022, all new vehicles will be equipped with more than 25
0 cameras(1). Light vehicles will have eight external cameras(2) and commercial
vehicles, 16. Four to six cameras will be installed internally to monitor the behavior
of the driver and passengers.
0 Drones: Both commercial and consumer drone industries are poised to increase
dramatically(3) with autonomous and semi-autonomous capabilities powered by
cameras (two to six cameras) for high-quality visual capture and navigation.
Recent FDA approval for commercial drone use spans multiple industries.
0 Robotics: Robotics will have 20X more integrated cameras. Visually enabled robots
will operate in industrial, consumer, retail and warehouse sectors.
0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Maritime Vessels: Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) & Surface Vehicles
(USVs) are deployed commercially and by the military. There are 255 unique
configurations of UUVs in service today, including 147 different vessel platforms.
Robots: (def) computers in motion that The industry will grow with 2D and 3D capabilities for autonomy and surveillance.(4)
operate autonomously and intelligently.
(1) Lidar, Radar and other sensors will be included in future research. (2) Tesla, “Autopilot; Full Self Driving Hardware on all Cars”, 2017. (3) Gartner,
9
Says Almost 3M Personal and Commercial Drones Will Be Shipped, 2016. (4) Autonomous Undersea Vehicle Applications Center, AUV Systems. 2016LDV Market Segments to Watch: Smart Home
Nearly Every Household Appliance Will Have Cameras
The Internet of Eyes (IoEYES)(1) will be exponentially larger than the Smart Home
Internet of Things. Smart Homes will integrate cameras throughout the
home: the refrigerator, stove, oven, doorbell, thermostat, TVs and more.
Currently, less than one million devices in the home have embedded
cameras and almost all are refrigerators(2). The Amazon Echo Look is
the first artificially intelligent (AI) Assistant to have a camera. 486%
Avg. CAGR (2017-2022)
The number of cameras embedded in smart home devices will
skyrocket to over six and a half billion based on conservative
predictions.
AI Assistants will be a centerpiece of the smart home. Within five years,
many are expected to have at least two to six cameras for 360 degree
perspective. They will probably also link to other visually enabled smart
appliances to do things, such as, recognize when a child approaches
the stove and remotely shut off the gas.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
AI Assistants Smart Appliances
10
(1) Evan Nisselson, NextWeb, “The Internet of Eyes”, May 2017 (2) IHS Technology, “The Growing Smart Appliance Market”, 2015LDV Market Segments to Watch: Security & Surveillance
Surveillance to be More Powerful with Computer Vision
The market for security and surveillance cameras will continue to grow Security and Surveillance
exponentially.(1)
52%
Over the last few years we have seen an increase in internet-enabled
security cameras (i.e. network cameras) shifting away from analog
surveillance cameras. Avg. CAGR (2017-2022)
In 2017, the installed base of analog cameras still exceeds that of
network cameras. This will change significantly and will far surpass
analog to dominate the market.(2)
Network cameras will evolve further to include 3D and 360
perspectives which means more than one camera per device.
Surveillance cameras with computer vision, machine learning and
artificial intelligence will produce extremely powerful signals of the
visual data they capture.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Network/IP Security Cameras Analog/CCTV Security Cameras
(1) Yano Research, “Global Surveillance Camera Market: Key Findings”, 2016 (2) IHS Technology, “245 Million Surveillance Cameras 11
Installed Worldwide”, 2014LDV Market Segments to Watch: Wearables
Augmented & Mixed Reality to Drive Wearables Growth
2017 2022
20 Million Cameras 116 Million Cameras
Body Cameras
Standard 3%
Wearables
Standard 11%
Wearables
24%
Body Cameras Action Cameras
Action Cameras 5% 54% AR Glasses
64% 31%
AR Glasses
7%
The integration of cameras into wearable technologies (e.g. Apple Watch and action cameras like GoPro) will enable them to see and
analyze signals in order to improve our lives, safety, health, communication, and entertainment.
Augmented and Mixed Reality will deliver significant growth. Augmented Reality (AR) superimposes and integrates a computer-
generated image with the user’s environment in real time.(2) Integration of AR into the workplace will have the most dramatic impact.
AR glasses will have at least two cameras to understand depth and 3D.(3) By 2018, global shipments of AR glasses are expected to
reach 1.3 million.(4) By 2022, it will be 35X that.
(1) “Standard Wearables” include watches, hats, clothing, glasses, jewelry, toys. (2) Tech Terms, “Augmented Reality”, 2017. (3) 4 cameras in 12
total, based on our definition of a unique camera. (4) PIV Imaging, “Photo and Imaging Market Trend Report 2016”, September 2016LDV Market Segments to Watch: Other
Other Industries to be Disrupted by Camera Integration
Certain sectors of other industries are included in the five year calculation of cameras.
“Visual technology, • Laptop and Desktop Computers: A single camera is on most laptops and desktops
today. Adoption of 3D imaging in this category will be slower than smartphones.
combined with smart
• Satellites: Earth observation satellites have three cameras per satellite and a 75%
cameras in fixed locations at projected CAGR. In the future, many other types of satellites will adopt cameras.
home and at work, can • Inventory & Supply Chain Logistics: Figures around NFC-enabled Point-of-Sale
improve our health, aid our systems are included in the model. The integration of 3D imaging will be a staple of
check-out free stores, like Amazon Go. Cameras will be integrated across the supply
memory, and provide us new chain from ship-to-shore cranes to warehouses and retail smart shelves.
ways to care for loved ones. ” • Maritime Vessels: Unmanned Underwater Vehicles are included in the model but the
-Serge Belongie, Professor of Computer overall spectrum of Maritime Vessels includes other vessels such as Unmanned
Vision at Cornell Tech & Expert in Residence Surface Vehicles which we will include more in future research.
at LDV Capital
Medical Imaging, Military Robots, and Civil Robots will be included in future research. These
industries will be a disruptive force in the camera market over the next five years and
beyond.
13Ecosystem Growth The entire visual tech ecosystem is driving and driven by the integration of cameras and visual data. Advances in power, speed and size of processing has made it possible to embed cameras in devices as well as collect and store visual data. Edge and cloud computing are rapidly advancing to process and store massive quantities of visual data. In parallel, promising approaches are emerging that combine real and synthetic imagery for scalable training of high capacity deep learning models. Exponential growth of visual data will require more sophisticated algorithms that leverage computer vision and artificial intelligence to analyze, interpret and act on the visual data.
Ecosystem Growth
Processing Advances Enable Leaps in Visual Analysis
Advancements in processing are allowing computer vision algorithms to run 1000X faster than
before, making computer vision and artificial intelligence possible after decades of research.
New generations of high powered graphics chips and deep learning processing units optimize
computer vision, making it possible to process massive data sets in fractions of a second.
Interpreting visual data can now be analyzed in real time on micro-chips, locally on devices
such as smartphones, wearables and other devices without sending data to the cloud (i.e. edge
computing).
Extensive computing power is needed to teach a data model how to make predictions based
on high quality visual data signals. The enormous computing power and time required to train
deep learning models cannot yet be done on a device and is being developed by cloud
computing services. It is still incredibly expensive.
A recent Google/CMU study, for instance, used 50 NVIDIA GPUs for two straight months to
teach a model how to interpret 300 million images.(1) On Amazon AWS, for example, 50 GPUs
is estimated to cost nearly $720/hr.
These processing power advances are enabling the present phase of visual data collection and
analysis. Continued advances in speed, size and computing power will need to be made to
support the exponential growth of visual data.
15
(1) Google Research & Carnegie Mellon University, “Revisiting Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data in Deep Learning Era”, July 2017.Ecosystem Growth
War Over AI Will be Won with Visual Data
Major technology companies and startups are at war over having the most valuable artificial intelligence. At
the core of this war is possessing unique, high quality visual data. This battle will be won by owning the
connected camera.(1)
The majority of the data brains analyze is visual, and therefore the majority of the data needed for artificial
intelligence to have human (or better than human) skills, will rely on the ability for computers to translate
high quality visual data.
Scaling the capture, storage and processing infrastructure to handle exponentially more visual data from at
least 45 billion cameras around the world will be extremely challenging. Another difficult challenge is
leveraging the right algorithms to decipher and understand the valuable signals in visual data to make their
AI the smartest. In most scenarios, 99% of the visual data captured will not be valuable but 1% of the visual
data at any given time can be extremely valuable.
One of the business sectors that will be revolutionized by artificial intelligence is e-commerce. Amazon’s
Echo Look is their first step to empowering customers to shop on the platform using nothing but a camera.
The Look lets their customers buy products via Selfies, and it provides the company with trends of visual
data so their artificial intelligence algorithms can learn our favorite clothes, styles and products.
Google will follow soon with cameras on their Assistant which will probably communicate with Nest and
Dropcam. We are prepared to watch the battle between big companies fighting to control your cameras
and interpret our visual data, in the hopes to increase revenue, and to make our lives easier, and more fun.
16
(1) Evan Nisselson, TechCrunch, “The War Over Artificial Intelligence Will be Won with Visual Data”, May 2017Conclusion Massive camera growth will create infinite new business opportunities that cannot be fathomed today. There are hurdles that come with the integration of cameras including, but not limited to, the cost of embedding cameras in devices, privacy concerns and cultivating a workforce with the appropriate skills. The LDV Market Segments to Watch represent some of the many industries where cameras and visual data will be a disruptive force in the next five years. We look forward to hearing your insights, learning about your startups and reading your research papers on how businesses are addressing these challenges and opportunities at contact@ldv.co.
About Us LDV Capital invests in people building visual technology businesses. LDV Capital has over 50 years working in the visual technology sector and building visual technology businesses in Silicon Valley, New York and Europe. We thrive on collaborating and investing in people with deep domain expertise who leverage computer vision, machine learning and artificial intelligence to solve problems, build businesses and improve our world. Our unique LDV Platform includes: - Annual LDV Vision Summit since 2014. Our 2017 edition had over 600 attendees, 80 speakers, 40 sessions, 2 competitions over 2 days. - LDV Community started in 2011 has over 800 members with equal gender balance. This is the first phase of a multi-phased research project at LDV Capital to help our ecosystem garner insights and find the next generation of brilliant entrepreneurs to partner with and invest in.
© 2017 LDV Capital, New York, NY, US. All Rights Reserved. This material is based upon work supported by LDV Capital. Any
opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations are those of the authors. LDV Capital believes the information in this
document is accurate as of its publication date; such information is subject to change without notice. LDV Capital acknowledges
the proprietary rights of other companies to the trademarks, product names and such other intellectual property rights mentioned
in this document. Except as expressly permitted, neither this documentation nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, without prior permission of LDV Capital and/or any named
intellectual property rights holders under this document.
Follow us @LDVCapital or subscribe to our newsletter for news and updates, get in touch at contact@ldv.co.
Authors:
Evan Nisselson
General Partner
Abigail Hunter-Syed
Director of Operations
Sadhana Shah
Summer Analyst
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