Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley, BC →
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley, BC →
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley, BC Report & and Recommendations June 2009 Prepared by Ingrid Liepa
iii Acknowledgements This pilot project was possible thanks to funding and guidance of the Columbia Basin Trust’s (CBT) Communities Adapting to Climate Change initiative. Special thanks go to CBT expert Advisory Committee members Stewart Cohen, Mel Reasoner, Cathy Leblanc, Hans Schreier, Lara Whitley-Binder, Cindy Pearce, George Penfold and Trevor Murdock for their generous input, advice and support at different stages of the project. Thanks also to Michelle Laurie and Kindy Gosal for their vision and efforts on behalf of CBT.
A local Steering Committee guided and informed this project beginning in May 2008. Thanks are in order to the generous volunteer contributions of time and advice from Bill Green, Kent Goodwin, Schaun Goodeve, Paddy Weston, Bob Dyrda, and Chris McCurry. City of Kimberley staff and councillors were engaged throughout the project, without which the project would not have achieved the breadth and depth that it did. Thanks are in order to Laurie Cordell, Carol McGregor, Troy Pollock, Al Collinson, Jack Patterson, Don Schacher, Mark Baron, Bob West-Sells, Paddy Weston, Albert Hoglund and Mayor Jim Ogilivie for their participation and/or direction over the course of the year.
In addition to providing climate visioning tools to enhance communication and understanding of climate impacts in Kimberley, UBC’s Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning provided valuable perspectives on Kimberley as a compact, livable and walkable community and opportunities for future planning and development. Thanks go to Dr. Stephen Sheppard, Sara Muir-Owen, Ellen Pond, Cam Campbell and Olaf Schroth for their tireless efforts, as well as Selkirk College’s GIS group, represented by Paul Sneed. Without the funding of the Real Estate Foundation and the Ministry of Community Development’s Smart Development grant program, CALP’s valuable contributions to this project and to building climate visioning capacity in the Columbia Basin would not have been possible.
The project would not have gotten very far without the climate analysis provided by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium in fall 2008. The efforts of Trevor Murdock and Arelia Werner were pivotal in bringing the analysis to fruition. The District of Elkford also undertook a climate adaptation planning process at the same time as Kimberley. Considerable collaboration and collegial exchange occurred between the Elkford consultants Karen Gorecki, Jeff Zukiwsky, Megan Walsh and the Kimberley coordinator Ingrid Liepa throughout their respective year-long projects. Final thanks goes to all the residents of Kimberley who took the time to participate in one or more of the project’s workshops and/or working groups, adding rich local experience and perspectives to the project’s findings and recommended actions.
v Table of Contents Acknowledgements . . iii Table of Contents . . v Executive Summary . 1 1.0 Introduction . 9 1.1 CBT’s Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative . 9 1.2 Kimberley’s Climate Adaptation Project Proposal: Learn, Share, Plan . 10 1.3 CALP: An Unexpected Partner . . 11 1.4 Overview of Project and Process . . 11 1.5 Learning Reflections on Starting an Adaptation Process . 14 2.0 About Kimberley . 15 2.1 Natural Environment . 15 2.1.1 Climate . 15 2.1.2 Water and Watersheds . 16 2.1.3 Forests and Ecosystems . 16 2.1.4 Kimberley Nature Park . 17 2.2 Built Environment . 18 2.2.1 Municipal Water Supply . 18 2.2.2 Roads & Bridges . 19 2.2.3 Sanitary Sewer System . 19 2.2.4 Storm Water System . 19 2.2.5 Land Use . 19 2.2.6 Parks and Recreation Areas . . 20 2.2.7 Natural Hazard Areas . . 20 2.3 Socio-Economic Environment . . 20 2.3.1 Tourism . 21 2.4 Community Values and Character . 21 3.0 Learning: Historical and Future Climate . . 23 3.1 Local Observations . . 23 3.2 Historical Climate and Trends for Kimberley . . 24 3.4 Future Projections . . 25 3.5 Learning Reflections . . 26 4.0 Sharing: Community Engagement . . 29 4.1 Local Stakeholder Workshop: Identifying Priority Issues . . 29 4.2 Community Workshops: Climate 101 & Planning for a Changing Climate . . 29 4.3 Open House and Report to Community . . 30 4.4 Community Survey . 31 4.5 Media and Other Promotion of the Project . . 32 4.6 Learning Reflections . . 32 5.0 Assessment & Planning: Priority Issues & Recommended Actions . . 35 5.1 Overview of Process . . 35 5.1.1 Note Regarding Complete Action Matrix versus Summary Tables in the Report . 37 5.2 Natural Environment: Water and Forests . . 38 5.2.1 Municipal Water Supply . . 39 5.2.2 Quality of Aquatic Environment . 41
vi 5.2.3 Risk of Flooding . . 42 5.2.4 Forest Health, Mountain Pine Beetle and Risk of Wildfire . . 43 5.2.5 Wildfire and Risk to the Built Environment . . 44 5.3 Built Environment: Municipal Infrastructure . . 45 5.3.1 Urban Trees . . 47 5.3.2 Drinking Water System . . 47 5.3.3 Flooding Associated with Storm Water System . . 48 5.3.4 Wildfire Protection and Municipal Infrastructure . . 49 5.3.5 Risk of Slope Failure . . 50 5.3.6 Risk of Flooding . . 50 5.3.7 Future Proofing and “Other” Considerations . . 50 5.4 Socio-Economic Environment: Tourism . 51 5.4.1 Ski Tourism . 53 5.4.2 Golf Tourism . . 54 5.4.3 Trail-Based Tourism . 55 5.4.4 Water-Based Tourism . . 56 5.4.5 Festival & Event Based Tourism . 57 5.4.6 Other Local Attractions . . 58 5.5 Learning Reflections . . 59 6.0 CALP Local Climate Visioning and Scenarios . 61 6.1 Data and Resource Review and Development . . 62 6.2 Using Scenarios to Inform Visioning and Planning . 66 6.3 Visualization Development . 69 6.4 Project Outcomes and Visioning Tools . 71 6.5 Key Learnings . . 73 6.6 Future Collaborations . . 74 6.7 Recommendations from Scenarios Working Group . . 74 7.0 Putting it All Together: The Way Ahead for Kimberley . 77 7.1 Next Steps . 77 7.2 Learning Reflections . . 78 APPENDICES . . 79 APPENDIX 1: Table of Recommendations with Narratives . 80 APPENDIX 2: CALP Visualizations for Low Carbon Kimberley and Mountain Pine Beetle . 81 APPENDIX 3: Workshop Proceedings for June ’08, Fall ’08 and June ‘09 . . 82 APPENDIX 4: Community Survey Form & Complete Results . . 83 APPENDIX 5: Sample Worksheets for Vulnerability Assessments . 84 INDEX OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1: CALP Visualization of Snowpack Reductions on the North Shore Mountains under a “Do Nothing” baseline scenario . . 11 Figure 2: Map of Kimberley . 15 Figure3: Mark Creek Community Watershed . 18 Figure 4: Kimberley’s Current Land Use Allocation . . 20 Figure 5: Kimberley’s Alpine Resort in the summer season . 22 Figure 6: Annual Mean Temperature (2050s) and Annual Mean Precipitation (2050s . . 26 Figure 7: Small Group Mapping of Impact Pathways for Tourism . . 30 Figure 8: Working Group Process Showing Key Steps and Milestones . . 35
vii Figure 9: Inter-relationship of Environments . . 37 Figure 10: Kimberley Land Use Map . . 63 Figure 11: Example of 2D Mapping showing Walkability . 64 Figure 12: 2D GIS map using Community Viz to show current and potential buildout . . 65 Figure 13: Existing Residential Locations within Services . 68 Figure 14: Mountain Pine Beetle Susceptibility . 69 Figure 15: Flood Mapping Based on 1999 Flood Risk Assessment Study . . 70 Figure 16: Historic Wildfires Around Kimberley . . 70 Figure 17: Beyond 2100 – Looking north into the Mark Creek watershed . 71 Figure 18: Low Carbon Infill Visualization for Downtown Area of Kimberley . 71 Figure 19: Green Ribbon Vision for Low Carbon Kimberley . . 73 Table 1: Summary of Key Project-Related Activities and Milestones . 12 Table 2: Stakeholders Represented by Project Steering Committee . 13 Table 3: Priority Issues Identified in June Workshop . 13 Table 4: Summary of Climate Analysis for Kimberley . . 23 Table 5: Community Survey Responses on Importance of 14 Climate Impacts . 31 Table 6: Definition of Terms for Vulnerability Assessment . . 36 Table 7: Definitions for Threat Reduction and Urgency of Action . . 37 Table 8: Goals and Vulnerabilities for Water and Forests . . 38 Table 9: Recommended Actions for Municipal Water Supply . . 39 Table 10: Recommended Actions for Quality of Aquatic Environment . 41 Table 11: Recommended Actions to Reduce Risk of Flooding . . 42 Table 12: Recommended Actions on Forest Health, Mountain Pine Beetle and Wildfire Risk Reduction . . 43 Table 13: Recommendation Actions to Reduce Risk of Wildfire to the Built Environment . . 45 Table 14: Average Lifespans of Municipal Infrastructure Components . . 45 Table 15: Kimberley’s Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Associated Goals . 46 Table 16: Recommendations for Management of Urban Trees . . 47 Table 17: Recommendations for City Drinking Water System . 48 Table 18: Recommendations to Reduce Flooding Associated with the Storm Water System 49 Table 19: Recommendations to Protect Municipal Infrastructure from Wildfire . 49 Table 20: Recommendations to Reduce Risk of Slope Failure . . 50 Table 21: Recommendations for Future Proofing Kimberley’s Municipal Infrastructure . 51 Table 22: Vulnerability Assessment Worksheet used by Tourism Working Group . . 52 Table 23: Key Tourism Vulnerabilities and Objectives . . 53 Table 24: Recommended Actions for Ski Tourism . . 54 Table 25: Recommended Actions for Kimberley’s Golf Courses . . 55 Table 26: Recommendations for Trail-Based Tourism . . 55 Table 27: Recommendations for Water Based Tourism . . 57 Table 28: Recommendations for Festival and Event Based Tourism . . 57 Table 29: Recommendations for Other Local Attractions . . 58 Table 30: Recommendations from the Scenarios Group and Other . . 74
Executive Summary The City of Kimberley was selected by the Columbia Basin Trust (CBT) in April 2008 as one of two pilot communities1 for its Communities Adapting to Climate Change initiative.2 The purpose of CBT’s initiative is helping Basin communities increase their resiliency to climate change through engaging in a process to address anticipated changes to climate at the local level by identifying the range of potential impacts, assessing local vulnerabilities and sensitivities, and developing adaptation strategies. Kimberley’s project was based on the three pillars of Learn, Share and Plan, which also defined the three stages of its process: Learn – Gathering available scientific data on projected climate impacts to Kimberley and connecting this with local observations and concerns.
Share – Bringing the results of the data collection to the community, and providing opportunities to learn how the predicted impacts could affect Kimberley. Plan –Synthesizing all the input that was received in the learning and sharing stages, and creating an action plan setting out both short-term and long-term adaptation measures. A historical climate analysis and future climate projections were prepared by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) to inform local understanding of how Kimberley’s climate has been changing and how it may continue to change in the future.3 In short, temperatures in this area have warmed about 1 degree Celsius over the last century, and are forecast by PCIC to warm by an additional 2 to 3 degrees by the 2050s. Overall precipitation in the area has seen a slight increase over the last hundred years, with a clear trend to less precipitation in the form of snow. In the future, precipitation is expected to see a slight increase in winter and slight decrease in summer. Stream flows have also been changing, with peak spring flows shifting into April/May from May/June since the 1950s. Future projections for stream flows predict earlier spring freshets with lower peak volumes and a more sustained duration, and lower stream flows in late summer and early fall.
On the basis of current climate science, local observations and input received from five workshops and a community survey, three priority climate impact issue areas were identified for Kimberley: 1. Water and Forests (Natural Environment) 2. Municipal Infrastructure (Built Environment) 3. Tourism (Socio-Economic Environment) Small working groups comprised of City staff and council representatives, local Steering Committee members and other interested local stakeholders were formed to further address the priority issues. Each of the working groups undertook a vulnerability assessment where they identified key vulnerabilities associated with their priority issue (see Summary of Kimberley’s Vulnerabilities by Priority Issue Area 1 The second community was the District of Elkford. 2 For more information on CBT’s initiative, see http://www.cbt.org/Initiatives/Climate_Change/?Adaptation 3 Arelia T. Werner, Brenna M. Paterson & Harpreet K. Jaswal, “Analytical Summary: Past Trends and Future Projections for the Kimberley and Elkford Region – DRAFT”, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, October 2008. The analysis remains in draft form as of the preparation of this report, and is expected to be finalized later in 2009.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 2 below) and developed recommendations for adaptive actions. High priority actions for each vulnerability are summarized further below by priority issue area, and a complete list of recommended actions can be found in the appendices to this report. Summary of Kimberley’s Vulnerabilities by Priority Issue Area Natural Environment: Water and Forests Built Environment: Municipal Infrastructure Socio-Economic Environment: Tourism Municipal Water Supply Urban Trees Ski Tourism Quality of Aquatic Environment Drinking Water System Golf Tourism Risk of Flooding Risk of Flooding Trail-Based Tourism Forest Health, Mountain Pine Beetle and Wildfire Risk Flooding associated with Storm Water System Water-Based Tourism Wildfire Risk to the Built Environment Wildfire and Protection of Municipal Infrastructure Festival and Events Tourism Risk of Slope Failure Other Local Attractions Future Proofing and Other Considerations The project’s recommendations for adaptation range from simple, no regrets measures such as obtaining standing permission of the Mayor for City of Kimberley fire crews to fight fires in Kimberley’s watersheds to more complex investigations such as undertaking a comprehensive flood hazard study for Mark Creek. Many of the recommendations are intended to inform Kimberley’s upcoming OCP review and renewal process, and several extend to seek involvement of other local stakeholders in addressing local vulnerabilities, including Tourism Kimberley, Wildsight, Resorts of the Canadian Rockies, Kimberley Nature Park Society, service clubs, and local residents.
The hundred plus recommendations formed during the project will be received by the City of Kimberley in late June, 2009, after which the City will begin the process of determining which recommendations it can and will move forward with. Overall, the project Steering Committee has concluded that the vast majority of Kimberley‘s vulnerabilities to local climate impacts over the next decade or two can be managed through appropriate adaptive actions. For example, there is likely sufficient adaptive capacity in Kimberley’s water usage patterns to be able to make necessary reductions in the event of a significant drought year, though key questions still need to be explored in greater detail regarding reservoir management in drought years and balancing water needs for aquatic habitat with human needs.
Perhaps the most catastrophic vulnerability facing the community is wildfire, especially if it occurs in either of the watersheds that Kimberley relies upon for drinking water. Interface forest fuel management and reduction thus remains a high priority for the community, and will ideally be conducted in a manner that takes into account Kimberley’s status as a resort town and its tourism assets such as viewscapes, recreational trails and overall aesthetics of the community. Accordingly, navigating and balancing multiple interests and values will be a big component of moving forward with certain of the project’s recommendations, and measured tradeoffs between competing values will likely be required in some instances.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 3 In addition to the recommendations arising from this project, the main “take-home” messages to the community are the importance of a) taking into account the possibility and implications of new patterns of temperatures and precipitation when planning for Kimberley’s future, and b) giving consideration to a wider range of climate futures than what may have been experienced here in the past. CALP and Visualization of Climate Impacts In fall 2008, the University of British Columbia’s Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) received funding to do a climate change visioning study as part of Kimberley’s adaptation project. The purpose of the study was to develop digital visualization tools to help communicate climate change impacts and adaptation and mitigation scenarios to local residents and stakeholders. CALP worked with the project Steering Committee to localize two general scenarios: 1) “Kimberley Adapts” - adapting to climate impacts in a world where greenhouse gas emissions continue in a “business as usual” trajectory, and 2) “Low Carbon Kimberley” - engaging in both climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. CALP synthesized considerable map-based (geo-spatial) information about Kimberley both now and in the future, creating an interactive tool in GoogleEarth that allows users to view different scenarios for the community using GoogleEarth’s capabilities to show landscapes in three dimensions. This work will be publicly available later in 2009.
The scenarios work with CALP revealed some underlying vulnerabilities that could be triggered by the advent of peak oil and sky-rocketing energy prices. These include the impacts of peak oil and/or carbon pricing on tourism, energy security and food security, especially in respect of Kimberley’s dependence on outside sources for its energy (natural gas and petroleum), food, tourism and recreational property investment dollars. Accordingly, various recommendations emerged from the Scenarios Working Group around energy, food security, transportation, housing and land-use planning with a view to enhancing Kimberley’s resilience.
Summary of Key Project Outcomes As a result of the climate change adaptation project and the City’s more recent efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions inventories and mitigation planning, a solid foundation has now been created for Kimberley to continue its efforts on both climate change adaptation and mitigation, with the overall goal of building a community that is more informed, responsive and resilient to future impacts, trends or events associated with climate change. A short list of project outcomes include: • Increased local knowledge and capacity on climate change adaptation planning within City of Kimberley and community • Partnerships and relationships with a wide network of climate change scientists, experts and planners in BC • Collection of considerable amount of data, research and studies on different aspects of climate change impacts and adaptation that is applicable to this area • Digitization of considerable spatial and technical data in GIS, which will support City of Kimberley in expanding its information and mapping systems to include GIS-based material • Identification of three priority adaptation issues and 18 areas of vulnerability for the community. • Approximately 100 recommendations for local climate adaptation planning
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 4 • Visioning material and scenarios to support conversations around Kimberley’s future opportunities and challenges vis-à-vis climate change • Tools and processes for continuing the work • Interest among some of the project partners to undertake additional climate adaptation work in Kimberley Summary of High Priority Actions The priority issue tables below set out the high priority actions for addressing Kimberley’s vulnerabilities associated with each of its priority issues, adding up to fifteen high priority recommendations in total. For interested readers, over 80 moderate and lower priority recommendations can be found both in the body of the report and in greater detail in the appendices. The table immediately below illustrates the criteria used to assign level of priority to recommendations: Definitions for Threat Reduction and Urgency of Action Rating Threat Reduction Urgency of Action High (H) This action will help reduce the risk of damage to Kimberley homes, economic conditions and/or living conditions affecting more than 10% of Kimberley's population Initiate action in 0-2 years, or between 2009-2011 Medium (M) This action will help reduce the risk of damage to Kimberley homes, economic conditions and/or living conditions affecting less than 10% of Kimberley's population Initiate action in 3-10 years, or between 2012-2019 Low (L) This action will not reduce the risk of damage to Kimberley homes, economic conditions and/or living conditions, but may reduce the risk of impacts to other aspects of life Initiate action in 10+ years WATER AND WATERSHEDS Goal: Work towards a high degree of knowledge and understanding of Kimberley's water sources and system to ensure long-term sustainability and adaptation in a changing climate ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion Vulnerability: Municipal Water Supply Objective: Kimberley is resilient to drought and seasonal low-water periods while maintaining adequate water for ecosystem needs WF-1 Determine the reasons Kimberley has more than double the BC average for water consumption H H H+ City WF-2 Determine the limits of current water supply for current demands and future growth, including estimates of drought flows incorporating future climate change H H H+ City
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 5 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion scenarios WF-10 Develop a plan to address community water use and reservoir management during drought conditions H H H City Vulnerability: Quality of Aquatic Environment Objective: Aquatic life and local fish populations are protected and maintained despite the stresses of a warming climate No High Priority Actions Identified Vulnerability: Risk of Flooding Objective: Flooding risks to Kimberley homes and infrastructure are minimized through upgrading flood hazard information to incorporate projected climate impacts and corresponding mitigative actions WF- 20/ MI-24 Undertake a comprehensive flood hazard study for Kimberley, including re-analysis of stream flow data for flood return frequency, digital elevation model, possible obstruction/blockage sites and weak/low points in the system.
M H M++ City FORESTS AND FOREST ECOSYSTEMS Goal: Minimize threats to forest health, watersheds, the local tourist economy and the built environment through adaptive management of the forests surrounding Kimberley. ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion Vulnerability: Forest Health, Mountain Pine Beetle and Wildfire Objective: To minimize the risk of catastrophic wildfire in Kimberley’s watersheds and ensure logging activity minimizes impact to water quality and volume in Mark, Matthew and Kimberley Creeks WF- 28 Contact Tembec to assist in defining spill response locations for Kimberley and Matthew Creek. Identify and map locations for pumping stations and clearly mark with signs on site.
H H H City WF- 32 Ensure Total Chance Access Planning is in place for all three watersheds (Mark, Kim, Matthew) and that regular refreshers (annual) occur for fire crew and contractors. H H H City – Fire Chief WF- 33 Obtain standing permission from Mayor for wildfire response in the City's watersheds H H H City WF- 35 Maintain and improve communications with the SE Fire Centre in Castlegar H H H City – Fire Chief
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 6 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion WF- 36/ MI-8 Ensure plan for alternative drinking water source for the community in the event of wildfire in Mark Creek watershed H H H City Vulnerability: Wildfire & Risk to the Built Environment Objective: To protect life and property from the threat of wildifre WF- 37 Continuation of current suite of interface fuel treatment activities, with addition of community education program to build and maintain support for interface fuel management H H H City – Fire Chief WF- 39 Encourage community uptake of FireSmart building and landscaping guidelines H H H City WF- 40/ MI-16 Review and update community emergency response plans for all emergencies (fire, flood, extreme storm events, etc), including emergency communication and evacuation plans H H H City – Fire Chief MUNCIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE Goal: Kimberley’s municipal infrastructure is resilient to the stresses of a changing climate. ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion Vulnerability: Urban Trees Objective: Kimberley develops an urban forestry plan to ensure safe and healthy trees throughout the community No High Priority Actions Identified Vulnerability: Drinking Water System Objective: Kimberley’s drinking water system minimizes water loss and provides high quality drinking water for the community MI-8/ WF- 36 Undertake cost-benefit analysis for reciprocal back-up water system from Matthew Creek or St Mary's River if Mark Creek system goes down H H H City MI-9 Reduce risk to chlorination plants and associated infrastructure through appropriate firesmarting H H H City Vulnerability: Flooding Associated with Storm Water System Objective: Kimberley develops and adopts an integrated storm water management plan that reflects future climate projections
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 7 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion No High Priority Actions Identified Vulnerability: Wildfire Protection and Municipal Infrastructure Objective: City of Kimberley takes appropriate measures to reduce wildfire risks to significant municipal infrastructure MI-9 Reduce risk to chlorination plants and associated infrastructure through appropriate firesmarting H H H City – Fire Chief MI-15/ WF-37 Continuation of current suite of interface fuel treatment activities, with addition of community education program to build and maintain support for interface fuel management H H H City - Fire Chief MI-16/ WF- 40 Review and update community emergency response plans for all emergencies (fire, flood, extreme storm events, etc) H H H City - Fire Chief Vulnerability: Risk of Slope Failures Objective: At-risk slopes are identified and there is a clear plan to manage risk associated with them. No High Priority Actions Identified Vulnerability: Future Proofing and Other Considerations Objective: Kimberley’s built and human environment is resilient to climate change impacts MI-32 Incorporation of climate impacts and adaptation measures into the City’s upcoming 10 year infrastructure plan H H H City TOURISM Goal: To maintain and, where feasible, enhance Kimberley’s tourism assets through climate adaptation actions, and identify opportunities to attract visitors from areas that are experiencing more significant climate impacts.
ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion No High Priority Actions Identified for any of the Vulnerabilities Below Vulnerability: Ski Tourism Objective: To maintain a viable commercial ski hill operation for as long as possible without compromising municipal water supply and related water values. Vulnerability: Golf Tourism Objective: To maintain three commercially viable golf courses in Kimberley for as long as possible without compromising municipal water supply and related water values
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 8 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion Vulnerability: Trail Based Tourism Objective: To enhance, protect and more effectively promote Kimberley’s trail systems as a valuable recreational and eco-tourism asset Vulnerability: Water Based Tourism Objective: Enhance awareness of our precious local rivers and lakes, and help ensure appropriate land/resource use decisions to manage and protect them in a changing climate Vulnerability: Festival and Event Tourism Objective: Maximize opportunities for festivals afforded by a changing climate while ensuring health and safety of visitors Vulnerability: Other Local Attractions Objective: Preserve the character of local tourist attractions and general mountain town feel in a changing climate
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 9 1.0 Introduction “Climate change is real. How it is occurring is not the issue. The effects need to be looked at and addressed.” ~ Mayor of Kimberley, Jim Ogilvie, June 2008 Workshop This report provides a broad overview of Kimberley’s climate adaptation project, showcasing an organic, community-driven adaptation process, recommended actions for adaptation, key learning reflections, plus useful background information on the community, adaptation planning and local vulnerabilities. The project is premised on the prevailing international scientific consensus that climate change is occurring, and that the risks of waiting for more scientific certainty outweigh the benefits of assessing Kimberley’s climate vulnerabilities and moving ahead with prudent no-regrets type actions that provide multiple benefits to the community.
This document is intended as a general resource for all stakeholders in Kimberley, and may also serve as a helpful resource to other communities in the Columbia Basin wishing to engage in climate adaptation planning. 1.1 CBT’s Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative Over the past decade or so, Columbia Basin residents have been witnessing weather conditions different than what has previously been considered “normal.” To help determine whether the new weather conditions are related to climate change or extremes in natural variability of climate, the Columbia Basin Trust contracted the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium in 2006 to analyze climate change impacts in the Basin. The study concluded that Basin climate is changing, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, with predicted impacts expected to touch many aspects of life and livelihood in the Basin. Some of the forecasted Basin- wide climate changes include: • increases in annual average temperatures between 2 to 3 degrees Celsius by mid-century, • increased occurrence of extreme weather events, • greater variability in both temperature and precipitation across the Basin, • slight increase in average annual precipitation, • warmer, wetter winters, • less snow • hotter, drier summers.4 Kimberley Nature Park looking west up St Mary’s Valley 4 Climate Change in the Canadian Columbian Basin: Starting the Dialogue, Columbia Basin Trust, 2007.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 10 Recognizing the need to support local action and learning on how to adapt to a changing climate, CBT initiated its Communities Adapting to Climate Change initiative, subsequently hosting a workshop for Basin local government representatives in November 2007 to share the scientific findings on climate change in the Basin and the essentials of climate adaptation planning. To help build local and regional capacity, CBT sought Basin communities willing to engage in a pilot learning project on climate adaptation. The overall goal of the multi-year initiative is supporting communities in the Columbia Basin to: • Increase their adaptive capacity and resiliency related to climate change impacts at a local community level, and, • Address climate change at a local community level by identifying the range of potential impacts, assessing local vulnerabilities and sensitivities, and developing strategies for addressing climate change impacts.
Communities Adapting to Climate Change incorporated the assistance and guidance of an expert Advisory Committee, which was comprised of leading scientists, planners, and policy experts from a broad range of disciplines, all with an interest in planning for climate impacts and adaptation. Once the pilot communities were selected, a Basin-Wide Learning Network was also established as part of the initiative. 1.2 Kimberley’s Climate Adaptation Project Proposal: Learn, Share, Plan The City of Kimberley participated in CBT’s November 2007 workshop and determined thereafter to apply for selection as one of the first pilot adaptation communities in the Basin. In April 2008, both the City of Kimberley and District of Elkford were chosen from among nine applicants by the CBT for the year-long project, and each provided with a $30,000 grant.
Kimberley’s original project plan was centered on a community-based adaptation project with three distinct stages of “Learn”, “Share” and “Plan”. Learn – Gathering the scientific data that is available and using this data to determine the projected climate impacts to Kimberley and begin to form a picture of the impacts that a changing climate may have on Kimberley. Share – Bringing the results of the data collection to the community, and providing opportunities to learn how the predicted impacts may affect a wide variety of community stakeholders. Using the data as inputs to multi-sector planning meetings to discuss direct impacts with the groups most affected and to hone in ideas that may work to address impacts.
Plan –Synthesizing all the input that was received in the learning and sharing stages, and making it in to an action plan. The plan will involve short-term and long-term measures, community, sectoral and individual recommendations. It will also detail opportunities for the funding of adaptation work. The plan will make recommendations for policy changes within the City and help to direct changes to the Official Community Plan. The climate adaptation plan will then be communicated to the community, refined and brought before Council for adoption.
As per the proposal, the project was guided by a multi-stakeholder steering committee representing key stakeholders in the local community, and had the benefit of significant involvement by City staff and councillors.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 11 1.3 CALP: An Unexpected Partner In May 2008 the City of Kimberley was approached by Dr. Stephen Sheppard of the University of British Columbia’s Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) to determine interest in becoming a pilot community for testing simple, relatively low-cost visualization technology to assist with local climate change visioning processes in smaller communities in BC. Recognizing that local governments and planners need simple flexible frameworks and methods for integrating the best available climate science and knowledge into policy and decision-making, the purpose of the CALP’s visioning project is to provide a new process for planning and community engagement that helps bridge the gap between global climate science and local action.
The Local Climate Change Visioning process uses realistic 3D imagery and spatial modelling of alternative climate futures at the neighbourhood scale, to address climate change causes, projected impacts, and possible adaptation/mitigation choices holistically. The resulting visualizations such as Figure 1 at right are used to translate the scientific information and make alternative futures explicit at the local level, using a participatory planning process to simultaneously build awareness, capacity, and better inform decisions on long term climate change adaptation options. Figure 1: CALP Visualization of Snowpack Reductions on the North Shore Mountains under a “Do Nothing” baseline scenario.
Selkirk College is a local partner in the project, which will create an enhanced capacity within Selkirk College’s GIS group to perform climate impacts visualization work for Basin communities. 1.4 Overview of Project and Process Kimberley’s process was initiated by bringing together a small group of local stakeholders as a project Steering Committee. After guiding the development of a basic project workplan and community workshop to formally kick off the process, the original Steering Committee of six members was expanded to twelve members to ensure a more inclusive process – see Table 2 below. Table 1 below provides a brief synopsis of the key events, activities and milestones of the project for Kimberley as well as project partners CBT and CALP.
Current 2080s 2050s
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 12 Table 1: Summary of Key Project-Related Activities and Milestones ACTIVITY Month Kimberley CALP CBT April (2008) • Hiring of Local Project Coordinator • Participation in CBT’s Project Kick-off Meeting • • Project Kick-Off Meeting with Advisory Committee, Kimberley and Elkford May • Formation of Steering Committee • Initial contact with Kimberley about possible Local Climate Visioning Project June • Kick-Off Workshop July • Expansion of Steering Committee • Climate Impacts Data/information gathering • Learning Network Field Day in Kimberley August • Climate Impacts Data/information gathering • Advisory Committee Telecon September • Received first draft of PCIC’s climate impacts analysis for Kimberley • Community & High School Workshops: Climate Change 101 • Advisory Committee Telecon October • Second draft of PCIC’s climate impacts analysis for Kimberley • Community Climate Change Survey • Community & High School Workshops: Planning for Climate Impacts in Kimberley • CALP meeting with Steering Committee & City Council • CALP presentation at Community Workshop • Advisory Committee Telecon • Learning Network Telecon November • Identification of draft priority issues • Municipal Election • Interim Report to CBT • • Advisory Committee Telecon December • Interim Project Report to New Council & confirmation of priority issues & working groups • Design Charette to develop Kimberley Scenarios January (2009) • Formation of Priority Issue Working Groups on Tourism, Municipal Infrastructure, and Water/Forests. • Advisory Committee Telecon February • Working Groups: Vulnerability Assessment • Elkford Workshop on Vulnerability Assessment March • Working Groups: Action Identification • Preliminary Visualization Workshop April • Development of Draft Action Plan • Project Review & evaluation with Advisory Committee May • Draft Final Report and Action Plan June • Presentation of Final Draft Report at Community Workshop/Open House • Completion of Final Report • Project Evaluation • Presentation of Final Visualizations at Community Workshop & Open House • Learning Network Telecon • Completion of on-line collection of adaptation resources, process tools and learnings from the two pilot projects Fall 2009 • Report to Basin
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 13 Table 2: Stakeholders Represented by Project Steering Committee *from July 08-Jan 09. The June 2008 workshop was a critical “kick off” point for the project, inviting a broad cross-section of some thirty-five local stakeholders to engage in both learning and sharing on climate impacts in Kimberley with a view to identifying Kimberley’s priority issues, further questions and data needs. Table 3 shows the order of priority issues for Kimberley after a group ranking process. Summary of the workshop proceedings can be found in the appendices.
Table 3: Priority Issues Identified in June Workshop After a summer of data collection and receipt of the Pacific Climate Impact Consortium’s draft climate analysis for Kimberley and Elkford, the community was invited to participate in a direct mail survey on priority climate impacts and two workshops: “Climate Change 101” and “Planning for Climate Impacts in Kimberley”. The second workshop engaged community residents in mapping climate impacts for Kimberley’s priority issues. A summary overview of each workshop can be found in the appendices. To ensure youth participation, a parallel workshop series was also held for the Gr.10 Planning class at Selkirk High School. All of these community engagement activities helped define the issues that were looked at in further detail by smaller multi-stakeholder Working Groups formed in late January 2009. Three working groups were formed to address climate impact vulnerabilities and sensitivities associated with: A) Natural Environment: Water and Forests B) Built Environment: Municipal Infrastructure, and C) Socio-Economic Enivronment: Tourism, and were tasked with developing a suite of recommended actions to help Kimberley prepare for a changing climate.
Project Steering Committee • Chamber of Commerce • Resorts of the Canadian Rockies* • City Planner • SPARK Youth Society • City Councillor • Tourism Kimberley • College of the Rockies • Wildsight • Nature Park Society • Local Project Coordinator • Nordic Club & CBT Advisory Committee • Communities Adapting to Climate Change Coordinator Priority Ranking Issue 1 Water Supply & Demand 2 Energy and Economy 3 Forest Ecosystems 4 Tourism and Economy 5 Wildfire Prevention & Management 6 Municipal Infrastructure 7 Food Security 8 Health (Direct and Indirect Impacts) 9 Water Quality 10 Flooding 11 Groundwater
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 14 A fourth working group was formed to support CALP’s work on the development of two scenarios for Kimberley: a) Kimberley Adapts, and b) Low Carbon Kimberley. For more information on the scenarios, please refer to Chapter 6. In June 2009, the Final Draft Report and CALP’s visualizations were presented to the community, and a Final Report was completed after incorporating residents’ feedback from the Open House and presentations. 1.5 Learning Reflections on Starting an Adaptation Process 1. Establish a local project steering committee to help guide the project if at all possible. Seek a representative cross section of key community stakeholders who would like to be part of the project, provide advice, and who can help communicate the project to other members of the community. 2. Read the climate adaptation guidebook prepared by the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group.5 Don’t give up if it seems too technical or somewhat impenetrable. The CBT’s experts can give a lot of excellent background and guidance to your process – talk to them. Read about the City of Keene’s process6 , the Federation of Canadian Municipalities’ Municipal Infrastructure Risk Project7 , and the Clean Air Partnership’s Cities Preparing for Climate Change: A Study of Six Urban Regions8 .
3. Make it clear to all core participants that current climate science does not have all the answers around future local impacts, and that the science is still relatively high level and directional at this stage. Scenarios are a useful way to transcend this gap. This may be difficult for participants who want definitive answers/scientific guidance, and/or who are skeptical about climate change being real in the first place. 4. Over the course of a year, Kimberley’s project saw a significant turnover in both key City staff and steering committee members, most commonly because of a change in position or employer. In some cases the original person was replaced, in other cases they were not. While it would have been difficult to anticipate any of these changes at the beginning of the project, it may be worthwhile to consider the issue of turnover in the local steering committee and with key City staff at the front end of the project and discuss a general strategy for dealing with it at the beginning of the project. 5. Most people are familiar with climate change in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation, but planning for climate adaptation is lesser known and distinctly different in focus. It may be useful to spend some time at the front end of the project to briefly define and differentiate the two tasks, and note the overlap in terms of adaptation planning that can be antagonistic or synergistic for greenhouse gas reductions.
5 Climate Impacts Group at University of Washington and King County, Washington, Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State Governments, in association with ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, September 2007. 6 City of Keene, New Hampshire, in association with ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability, Adapting to Climate Change: Planning a Climate Resilient Community, November 2007. 7 Federation of Canadian Municipalities, Final report on Federation of Canadian Municipalities Municipal Infrastructure Risk Project: Adapting to Climate Change, prepared for the Climate Change Action Fund, Natural Resources Canada, 29 p.
8 Clean Air Partnership, Cities Preparing for Climate Change: A Study of Six Urban Regions, May 2007.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 15 2.0 About Kimberley “Kimberley is a community enjoying outstanding quality of life in harmony with nature and each other.” 9 With the discovery of high grade ore in 1892, Kimberley (originally named Mark Creek Crossing) quickly established itself as a small mining settlement in the East Kootenays. At its peak, the Sullivan Mine was the largest lead-zinc mine in the world. Originally separate settlements, the villages of Marysville and Chapman Camp amalgamated with the City of Kimberley in 1969. In 1972, the community recognized that Kimberley’s mineral resources would eventually be depleted, and looked to Kimberley’s spectacular recreational resources as a means of sustaining the community in the future. In 1973 the town’s Bavarian theme was adopted and the transition from a mining town to a tourism and recreational destination began. The mine closed in 2001, and Kimberley officially became a BC resort community in 2007. Its current resident population sits around 6,000.
2.1 Natural Environment Kimberley sits on the east flank of the southern Purcell mountains along the west side of the Rocky Mountain trench, enjoying commanding views of the Canadian Rockies on the other (eastern) side of the Rocky Mountain trench. Elevations within Kimberley range from 930 metres at Marysville Falls to 1981 metres at the top of Kimberley Alpine Resort. Its settlement topography is somewhat complex, resulting in a series of distinct neighbourhoods over a seven kilometer corridor occurring mostly along Mark Creek.
Figure 2: Map of Kimberley 2.1.1 Climate Kimberley is considered to have a dry, mild interior climate. It is known for its abundance of year-round sunshine, getting an average of 2,151 hours of sun annually. For the period 1980-2002, average annual precipitation was 450 mm, which includes an average annual snowfall of 251 cm. Annual mean temperature was 5.4 degrees Celsius, 0.4 degrees higher than the period 1961-1990. More detailed climate information can be found in Chapter 3. 9 Vision statement, Official Community Plan, 2005, p.7.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 16 2.1.2 Water and Watersheds The City of Kimberley currently depends on two relatively low elevation watersheds for its drinking water: Mark Creek and Matthew Creek. Historically water was also withdrawn from the St Mary’s River by Cominco for its Sullivan mine operation, and currently both the Bootleg Gap and Kimberley golf courses rely on the St Mary’s River for irrigation water. Groundwater is not a source of drinking water for the community. Two smaller creeks, Lois Creek and Kimberley Creek, flow into Kimberley from the northwest, and feed into Mark Creek just south of the Platzl.
Devastating floods of Mark Creek in the first half of the 20th century resulted in the construction of a concrete flume to channel the creek through the downtown area, with additional channelization measures taken both up and downstream of the flume. Channelization of Mark Creek from downtown to Marysville was carried out after the flood of 1948. The City’s concrete flume was completed 10 years later. Kimberley has another much larger concrete flume upstream of downtown that was built by Cominco along its historic waste dump reclamation lands to prevent acid rock drainage into Mark Creek. The Columbia Basin Trust contracted the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium in 2006 to analyze climate change impacts in the Basin. With respect to water supply, the analysis identified the following likely environmental changes and possible sector impacts in the Basin, emphasizing that the volume of winter snowpack is critically important for spring and summer stream flow.10 : • Increased winter stream flows due to more rainfall • Earlier freshets due to warmer temperatures in late winter and early spring • Lower summer flows that extend over longer periods due to changes in glacier and snowmelt • Loss of 12% of April 1st average snowpack by the 2040s • Reduced soil moisture due to increased summer evaporation and transpiration Water and forests are closely linked, and changes to one will inevitably impact the other. 2.1.3 Forests and Ecosystems Like other forested areas in BC’s southern Interior, fire has played an important historic role in shaping the local forest ecosystems. Modern fire suppression has resulted in significant forest in-growth and fuel build- up in surrounding forests, with the last major fire in Kimberley having occurred in 1919. Also noteworthy was a large fire in the Matthew Creek community watershed in the 1980s that had significant subsequent impact on Matthew Creek water quality.
Tree species commonly found in the Kimberley area include lodgepole pine, larch, aspen, and Douglas fir, with pockets of ponderosa pine, western red cedar, hemlock, and spruce according to local micro-climate. Mountain pine beetle has infested numerous stands of lodgepole pine in the area, including those in Kimberley’s watersheds. This has resulted in increased logging activity in the Kimberley area over recent years, including the Kimberley, Mark, and Matthew Creek community watersheds. Wildfire is a significant risk for Kimberley, which the City has taken very seriously after the severe wildfire season in BC in 2003. Interface forest fuel treatment around the perimeter of Kimberley’s built environment is more than 50% complete, which is being achieved through forest thinning and removal of fuel on the forest floor. Determining appropriate treatments for the Kimberley Nature Park has been and 10 Climate Change in the Canadian Columbia Basin: Starting the Dialogue, Columbia Basin Trust, 2007.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 17 continues to be a complex, challenging process of balancing competing values of cost-effective wildfire risk reduction through fuel treatment and retaining the Nature Park’s essential character as a relatively undisturbed natural area. Climate-related predictions for BC’s forests were recently compiled by Simon Fraser University’s Adaption to Climate Change Team11 and serve as guidance for future impacts in this area: • An increase of 1°C will shift ecosystem zones 300m in elevation upwards and 150km northwards; a 2–5°C increase translates to a 600–1500m rise in elevation and a shift 300–750km northwards. • This shift is estimated to occur at a rate of 40km per decade, while some components of ecosystems are capable of shifting only six km per decade.
• Forested ecosystems will change significantly in BC towards drier forest types in the south and warmer, moister forest types in the north. • These changes may result in increased disease outbreaks, wild fires, drought stress, and loss of ecological function. • Such climate changes will result in regional shifts of vegetation types across the landscape. The largest impacts will be in forested ecosystems. • Most of the trees now standing will endure the changes in climate predicted for the next 70 years, and even changing the species planted following harvest will have a very limited effect on adapting forests to climate change.
Finally, with respect to ecosystems, the southern Rockies trench area has been recognized as one of four biodiversity hotspots in the province for two interconnected reasons: 1) a significant number of species at risk in BC are located within this area, and 2) it is an area where human populations are exerting significant development pressures in the valley bottoms at the expense of natural habitat.12 The “epicenter” for this biodiversity lies somewhat south and east of Kimberley, though Kimberley still sits on the flank of this hotspot area.
2.1.4 Kimberley Nature Park At over 800 hectares in size, the Kimberley Nature Park is one of Canada’s largest and wildest municipal parks. It is the home of at least 17 tree species, 120 birds and mammals, and hundreds of plants and flowers representing a number of different ecosystems. While it has experienced some human disturbance in the early 20th century through logging and mining exploration, the vast majority of the park has been relatively undisturbed for several decades, with usage limited to non-motorized recreation. The Nature Park is a well-used and well-loved feature of Kimberley, appealing to low-impact recreationalists and nature viewers. Stewardship of the Nature Park is led by a volunteer non-profit society that has developed a management plan for the Park and is integrally involved with a variety of stewardship activities ranging from trail building and maintenance to documenting natural history.13 11 J. O’Riordan, Summary Recommendations: Climate Adaptation and Biodiversity, Adaptation to Climate Change Team, Simon Fraser University, January 2009.
12 Eric Kimmel, Climate Change Adaptation and Biodiversity, prepared for the Adaptation to Climate Team, Simon Fraser University, January 2009. 13 For more information, see http://kimberleynaturepark.rockies.net
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 18 2.2 Built Environment Kimberley’s municipal infrastructure and built environment occupies less than 15% of the City’s total land area. Like many Kootenay communities, a significant portion of the local infrastructure pre-dates the 1970s, although significant upgrades have been made to various infrastructure components over time. The City has committed to developing a 10 year infrastructure plan in the near future. More information on the various infrastructure components are provided below.
2.2.1 Municipal Water Supply The City of Kimberley’s two primary sources of water are Matthew Creek and Mark Creek. The City of Kimberley holds three conditional water licenses on Mark Creek dating from 1920 and 1953. The City has a 275 million litre reservoir on Mark Creek approximately 6 kilometres upstream that was constructed in the 1990s. The Mark Creek supply system is designed to supply up to 45 million litres per day of water to the City. The dam can serve as a balancing reservoir although the Drinking Water Officer prefers to have overflow on the dam for improved water quality.14 A riparian flow into Mark Creek is maintained year round to protect the aquatic value of Mark Creek. The Mark Creek water supply serves all areas of Kimberley including the ski hill snow making and the Trickle Creek Golf Course irrigation system, but does not normally serve Marysville unless Matthew Creek water quality becomes problematic.
The Marysville area draws its water from a direct inlet in Matthew Creek approximately 8 kilometres west of Marysville. Figure3: Mark Creek Community Watershed Kimberley does not filter its water but does disinfect with chlorine. The current OCP recognizes that changes to provincial drinking water regulations may require upgrading the level of treatment in the future. Boil water advisories are not uncommon during high turbidity periods associated with spring run- off. In summary, the municipal water system features: • Concrete dam with 275 million-litre reservoir; • 8 concrete storage reservoirs; • Three chlorinating plants; 14 City of Kimberley, Official Community Plan, Schedule B to Bylaw 2235, July 25, 2005, p.73.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 19 • Over 100 kilometres of water main pipe; • 1 pump station and 3 pressure reduction stations; • Rated Capacity 12 million gallons per day (mgd) • Average Daily Demand 3.6 mgd • Peak Demand 6 mgd • $ per 1,000 gallons* (industrial) $1.18 2.2.2 Roads & Bridges The Operations Services Department has the responsibility for maintaining in a safe and passable condition approximately 80 km of paved and gravel streets, including lanes, within the City of Kimberley. The exception is Highway 95A which runs from Cranbrook through Marysville, becoming 304th Street, then follows the Mark Creek Valley into Kimberley where it becomes Warren Avenue, then Wallinger Avenue before running east to Ta Ta Creek and Wasa. Highway 95A is maintained and serviced by private companies under contract to the Ministry of Transportation. It is scheduled for extensive upgrading and repaving in 2009.
Kimberley’s bridges were assessed in 2007, and a plan is in place for timely upgrading and/or replacement of bridges. 2.2.3 Sanitary Sewer System Kimberley has one sanitary sewage treatment plant located in the Marysville area. This plant uses the activated sludge process to treat the sewage, and discharges the treated effluent into the St. Mary River. This plant treats all of the sewage from the City of Kimberley including the Marysville area. The City of Kimberley sanitary sewer system features: • One treatment plant including an aerobic digester with two settling ponds and two clarifiers; • Two lift stations; • Over 72 kilometres of sanitary sewer mains; • Rated Capacity 14,500 cu.M.
• Average Daily Flow 4,000 cu.M. • Peak Flow 12,000 cu.M. 2.2.4 Storm Water System Kimberley’s storm water system is discharged into various drainage courses with most outfalls flowing directly into Mark Creek. The City of Kimberley storm sewer system features: • Over 36 kilometres of storm sewer mains; • Over 700 catch basins. 2.2.5 Land Use The majority of Kimberley’s residential neighbourhoods can be characterized as modest single family homes constructed between the 1930s and the 1970s. Kimberley is a relatively compact and walkable community, with the majority of residents living within 600 metres of a grocery or convenience store. Newer developments include residential and condominium development at Kimberley Alpine Resort and Forest Crowne. The City of Kimberley is pursuing an extension to the municipal boundary to incorporate an additional 506 acres, adding the prospect of 700 additional residential units to the community. Under the
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 20 development scenarios currently on the table, up to 3700 new units are possible. At full build-out this would more than double Kimberley’s current housing stock. Lands for light industrial use are limited. The City of Kimberley is pursuing opportunities for additional light industrial lands, including near the existing industrial park in Marysville. Historic industrial activity has resulted in various brownfield areas with limited allowable uses. These include lands south of Concentrator Hill, as well as parts of Marysville and Townsite.
Figure 4: Kimberley’s Current Land Use Allocation 2.2.6 Parks and Recreation Areas The City maintains approximately 11 hectares of urban parks and playing fields, a campground, and several Right-of-Ways and Licences of Occupation for trails throughout the community. The parks serve a dual purpose as places of recreation and lands that help conserve Kimberley’s natural beauty and character. Kimberley has a long and rich heritage as a sporting community with a broad spectrum of recreational facilities, including two arenas, a curling rink, golf course, aquatic centre, tennis dome, and skate park. 2.2.7 Natural Hazard Areas Natural hazard areas are lands susceptible to flooding, erosion, slope instability or that pose a threat to surrounding lands should their natural conditions be altered. In Kimberley they consist primarily of steep slopes and floodplains. Development on steep slopes cannot proceed without a technical report from a professional engineer and the registration of appropriate covenants on the land.15 A lack of provincial flood plain mapping for the City is a challenge in that Mark Creek has overflowed its banks on several occasions over the past 100 years, in two cases with catastrophic impacts. After the devastating flood of 1948, a concrete flume was built to channelize Mark Creek through Kimberley’s downtown area. In 1999, a flood assessment report commissioned by the City identified insufficient freeboard on one side of the creek upstream of the flume.
2.3 Socio-Economic Environment Kimberley has gradually been rebuilding its local economy since the closure of the Sullivan Mine in 2001. The current transition economy was put in motion long before the mine closed, with the move to tourism and branding of Kimberley as the Bavarian City of the Rockies going back to the early 1970s. The mainstays of the transition economy have been tourism, construction and real estate development. The largest employers in the community are the Kimberley Alpine Resort, School District No.6 and the City of Kimberley. Recognizing the need to continue strengthening and diversifying Kimberley’s economy, an Economic Development Strategy was commissioned by the City in 2008 and is scheduled for delivery in late 15 City of Kimberley, Official Community Plan, p.61.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 21 spring 2009. Diversification into sectors other than tourism is generally viewed as critical to Kimberley’s long-term sustainability and resilience. Since the mine closure, the number of full-time residents has dropped and the number of part-time residents has jumped, attracted by reasonably priced homes in a community with excellent recreational opportunities. The purchasers of these second homes come from neighbouring Alberta and around the world, pushing the share of Kimberley’s housing stock owned by non-residents from 20% in 2000 to 32% in 2005.16 2.3.1 Tourism In 2007 Kimberley officially became a BC resort community, signing a five-year revenue sharing agreement with the province entitling it to a two percent share of hotel taxes levied in the community. Kimberley’s tourist industry draws visitors to the town with year-round recreational opportunities that include Alpine and Nordic skiing, snowboarding, golfing, hiking, fishing, mountain biking, river rafting, and horseback riding. A typical year now sees more than 120,000 skier visits to Kimberley in winter and 70,000 rounds of golf in summer at its three golf courses.17 These activities are complemented by a longstanding series of summer festivals and events such as JulyFest and the Kimberley International Old Time Accordion Championships, heritage attractions such as the Bavarian City Mining Railway and Sullivan Mine Interpretive Centre, as well as the historic Cominco Gardens.
Sports tourism in Kimberley is almost as old as the community itself, and will receive a significant boost from the City’s efforts to develop an international paralympic training centre, which includes completion of a paralympic training and conference centre in late 2009. Kimberley’s annual JulyFest soccer tournament attracts teams from all over the Pacific Northwest and is one of the largest in Canada. Finally, the recent expansion of the nearby Canadian Rockies International Airport to accommodate international flights and wide-body jets has boosted general interest in the area from tourism, business and economic perspectives.
2.4 Community Values and Character Factors such as community values and character are important considerations within in any planning process, even though they can at times be challenging to define and articulate. Kimberley’s character has been undeniably shaped by the fact of being a single-industry mining town for almost a century. Sports and outdoor recreation have been core to the local culture since Kimberley’s early days, as has a strong tradition of service and volunteerism. When residents were surveyed in 2003 as part of a community visioning process, the overall vision identified was as “a community of smiling faces enjoying outstanding quality of life in harmony with nature and each other.”18 Retaining a small town feel was identified as important, as was creating a cohesive, 16 Data from Kimberley Community Profile and Business Guide 17 Data from http://www.investkimberley.com/invest.htm 18 Johnstone & Associates, “Creating the Kimberley Residents Want, the Way they Want it”, report to City Council on the Community Consultations, June 2003.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 22 nurturing and happy community where all, regardless of age, culture or personal circumstance, could benefit from Kimberley’s quality of life. Economic prosperity and stability were also identified as important, but not at the expense of the natural environment, the character of the community, or common values. Residents indicated that, as opposed to imitating other communities, they wished to define and articulate Kimberley’s preferred future as a community, and “achieve it by forging their own path”. .
Figure 5: Kimberley’s Alpine Resort in the summer season
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 23 3.0 Learning: Historical and Future Climate In fall 2008, the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) provided an analysis of historical and future climate for Kimberley and Elkford as part of the CBT’s Communities Adapting to Climate Change initiative. 19 Climate science, analysis and modeling is complex and nuanced. What is provided here is a snapshot of the analysis which summarizes past trends and future projections for the area. Table 4: Summary of Climate Analysis for Kimberley20 * Based on Cranbrook 1961-1990 and difference between Cranbrook and Kimberley 1980-2002 climatologies ^Ranges based on 25th and 75th percentiles of projections from 30 GCM results unless otherwise noted # Range for surrounding area based on single regional climate model projection 3.1 Local Observations Over the course of the project, local residents and stakeholders were asked to identify changes that they have observed and felt may be related to climate change. What follows is a short list of what was heard: 1. More and stronger wind, windstorms 2. Hotter, drier summers 3. The relatively recent advent of electrical storms which have not occurred in this area in the past 4. Warmer winters and shorter “cold snaps” 19 Arelia T. Werner, Brenna M. Paterson & Harpreet K. Jaswal, “Analytical Summary: Past Trends and Future Projections for the Kimberley and Elkford Region – DRAFT”, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, October 2008. The analysis remains in draft form as of the preparation of this report, and is expected to be finalized later in 2009.
20 PCIC analysis, p.6. Variable Historical climatology (1961-1990)* Historical climatology (1980-2002) Past trend Future projection (2050s)^ Temperature – annual mean 5.0°C 5.4°C +1.0°C to +3.0°C per century 7.6°C to 8.6°C (+2°C to +3°C warming) Precipitation – annual total 463 mm 450 mm +20% to +40% per century +3% to +10% increase Precipitation – winter +1% to +13% increase Precipitation – summer -4% to -10% decrease Snow n/a 251 cm (snowfall) n/a -15% to 0%# (snowpack) Streamflow Shift of peak from May/June to April/May (1950- 1995)
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 24 5. Drier climate overall 6. Increase in pine beetle 7. Shoulder seasons have shifted - colder, later springs & warmer later falls 8. More intensive/extreme weather events 9. Higher variability in aquifer levels 10. Lower water levels & less water in mountain lakes 11. Increase in cedar (stink) bugs 12. Less snow and long term decrease in snowpack, glaciers 13. Discolouration of larch trees - forests seem less healthy 14. Species moving beyond their normal ranges – birds, noxious and invasive weeds 15. More tourists from Alberta because of adverse changes to their lakes 16. Gardening zone has changed from Z3 to Z4 17. More algae in aquatic systems 18. Huckleberry cycle is off, season seems shorter 3.2 Historical Climate and Trends for Kimberley PCIC’s historical climate analysis for Kimberley was based on data from a meteorological station in Cranbrook that has been keeping data since 1907. While Kimberley has had various meteorological data gathering efforts over the years, the data sets were either not long enough in duration or did not have appropriate QA/QC. Data collected at a volunteer weather station in Marysville since 1972 was analyzed against the Cranbrook data, and confirmed that Kimberley’s temperatures tend to be slightly lower, and that the Kimberley area receives more of its precipitation in the form of snow. The period from 1961 to 1990 was selected to represent Kimberley’s baseline climatology, which illustrate the following general patterns of temperature and precipitation in the area: For the 1961 to 1990 period, temperatures were lowest in December and February. Minimum temperatures were below zero, on average, from October to April. Average maximum temperatures were greatest in July and August. The highest precipitation amount was received in June, with high amount also occurring from November to January (inclusive). However, the majority of the precipitation fell as snow during November to January.
Seasonally, minimum temperatures were below zero for all seasons except summer. Maximum temperatures were below zero in winter. Spring and autumn had similar minimum, maximum and mean temperatures on average. The greatest amount of precipitation was received in summer as rain. Roughly 80% of the precipitation fell as snow during the winter. Some snow was also received in spring and autumn although inputs from rain were roughly 3 to 4 times as much those received via snow.21 The period from 1900 to 2004 was analyzed to determine climate trends over a longer timeframe: Annual trends in minimum temperature range from 1.0°C to 2.0°C increases per century for the Columbia Basin. Kimberley’s minimum temperature increases from 1.5°C to 2.0°C per century. Winter saw the biggest seasonal increase in minimum temperature trends.
Mean temperature trends range from 1.0°C to 2.0°C increases per century for the Basin, and from 1°C to 1.5°C per century in Kimberley. 21 PCIC Analysis, pp. 9 & 10
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 25 Maximum temperature trends ranged from 0.5°C to 1.5°C per century for the Basin, from 1.0°C to 1.5°C per century in Kimberley. Increases in maximum temperature were not as large as increases to minimum temperatures. Annual precipitation trends were positive over the Basin, but were between 0% and 10% per century in some areas. The greatest precipitation increase over the 105 year period was found in vicinity of Kimberley, Cranbrook and Creston (30% to 40% per century), with Kimberley showing the biggest increases in spring and fall. Overall, Kimberley was a much drier area in the early part of the 20th century than the latter part. Snowfall relative to rainfall has been on a steady decline over the past century.22 A further consideration when looking at recent historical climate is the influence of short term cycles such as El Nino and La Nina, as well as the multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Past climate consists of components at three scales which are superimposed: year-to-year variability, decadal oscillations, and long term trends. In the South-East Kootenays, year to year variability is heavily influenced by year-to-year conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. For example, an El Nino winter can be up to 6°C warmer than an average year, and conversely La Nina years are colder than normal (ENSO variability). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) adds an additional influence of 1°C to 2°C warmer or colder than usual on ~20 year cycles.23 With respect to streamflow, historical flow data collected from the St. Mary River at Maryville and Wycliffe showed that the St. Mary River was responding like glacial-fed rivers that were losing their upstream glacial mass. Over 1950 to 1995, streamflow saw significant increases in March and April, coinciding with increases in temperature observed over the same time period.
3.4 Future Projections Complex climate models are used to forecast future climate, with PCIC applying over 30 different global climate circulation models (GCMs) to generate some of the results found in the analysis for Kimberley and Elkford. A regional climate model (RCM) was also utilized to obtain higher resolution outputs, taking the 350 km2 grid of the GCM down to 45 km2 . PCIC has indicated that for the 2050s more uncertainty is contributed by the various models than by different emission scenarios. By the 2080s, or the 2071-2090 period, emission scenarios have a stronger influence on the strength of the change in temperature and precipitation, which is largely due to the length of time that carbon cycles in the atmosphere.
22 PCIC Analysis, pp. 17-28. 23 PCIC Analysis, p.6.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 26 Figures 5 and 6 below illustrate projected annual mean temperature and precipitation for the 2050s using the Canadian RCM. For additional reference, Table 4 shows the projections for temperature and precipitation for the 2050s. Figure 6: Annual Mean Temperature (2050s) and Annual Mean Precipitation (2050s) 3.5 Learning Reflections Bridging leading edge climate science and modeling into a community level process is not without its challenges. Several learnings stand out relating to Kimberley’s experience: 1. The importance of communicating clearly to the community at the front end of the process as to what the science can and can’t provide in addressing local questions around impacts. It is probably fair to say that local expectations around what science would tell us about climate impacts were significantly beyond what was feasible within the parameters of the project and the current science. This points to the need for managing local/community expectations right from the beginning of the project.
2. The use of scenarios plus real-life examples of climate impacts in other communities is helpful for bridging the science and moving past its current limitations. The science of future climate projections is directional at best, showing what changes might occur with respect to temperature and precipitation on an annual and seasonal basis. Telling people that it might, on average, be 2-3 degrees C warmer in 4o years is still somewhat abstract and difficult to grasp in terms of the implications. There remains the question of “well, what does that really mean for our water, forests, ecosystems, gardens, buildings, etc.” Applying different scenarios based on more extreme manifestations of past climate can be helpful for asking “what if’ questions, as is looking to communities that currently have the kind of climate that is being predicted to see what kind of stresses they might already be facing.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 27 3. Engage residents by asking what changes they are observing that might be related to climate change. Asking this question early on in the community engagement process accomplishes several things: 1) it provides an opportunity for residents to share and perhaps validate with others in the community what they are already observing, 2) it is a good way to “open” the process and engage residents in the dialogue right from the beginning, 3) some of the local observations may subsequently be validated in a presentation by a visiting expert, which reinforces that climate impacts are not being imagined, 4) the shared observations provide an informal snapshot of what is important to residents and could inform subsequent research and data gathering.
4. Hearing more than one presentation of the climate science and impacts is useful. The climate science was presented to key stakeholders in Kimberley on several occasions. This kind of repetition was useful in getting to some of the nuances of the data and modeling that most individuals new to the subject would not necessarily absorb the first time it is presented to them. Hearing the data and analysis presented several times in different venues to different audiences increased people’s understanding and corresponding comfort level with the subject matter. 5. Engage the experts to communicate climate science and take the time to understand climate modeling and its limitations.
Climate analysis and modeling is complex and subject to understanding some basic principles of how the models work, how the outputs are generated and general strengths and limitations of current climate modeling science. It is best to engage the climate science experts to assist with communication of the science so that it is conveyed correctly and clearly. It is also important for core local stakeholders to have some basic understanding of modeling principles and limitations.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 28
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 29 4.0 Sharing: Community Engagement The community engagement component of Kimberley’s project was comprised of six workshops - three public, one by invitation and two at the local high school; a community survey circulated via direct mail; and submissions to the local newspaper around key events and milestones in the project. 4.1 Local Stakeholder Workshop: Identifying Priority Issues The first workshop invited some 50 key community stakeholders to take part in a project kick-off workshop that had the following objectives: • Participants gain an understanding of climate change adaptation • Participants understand the project, why it’s important and how it applies to Kimberley • Participants are able to identify impact pathways and brainstorm on community information needs and future steps • Participants identify priority impact areas in the community for research, analysis, exploration • Create stakeholder support, interest and enthusiasm for the project. The invites were targeted at individuals who were identified by the Steering Committee as having an interest in local climate impacts and adaptation planning because of the “hats” they wear, either professionally or as a volunteer. Sectors represented included local developers, service clubs, outdoor guides and instructors, education, provincial government agencies, youth, sports, Teck, eco-tourism, agriculture, local business, environmental/conservation organizations, plus a variety of City staff. To bring the group up to speed on climate adaptation planning, three of CBT’s expert Advisory Committee members were involved in delivering presentations on climate science (Mel Reasoner), impacts and adaptation (Stewart Cohen), and the nature of an adaptation planning process (Lara Whitley-Binder). One of the significant outcomes of the workshop was an initial prioritized list of issues of importance to Kimberley that was generated by local stakeholders. The workshop also generated a significant list of questions and data needs that would direct data gathering and research on the priority issues. A more detailed overview of the workshop proceedings can be found in the appendices. 4.2 Community Workshops: Climate 101 & Planning for a Changing Climate Despite the emergent global scientific consensus, the science of climate change continues to be a somewhat controversial subject. Between climate change “believers” and “deniers” are many who may not have much background in the subject either way. The project therefore delivered an introductory level workshop on climate change and climate science to local residents, presenting the current science as endorsed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the national academies of science of all G-8 countries plus China, India and Brazil.24 24 See http://royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?id=20742 for a copy of the joint statement of the 11 national academies of science. Given the preponderance of global scientific consensus on the subject, the project did not present the arguments against climate change or human-caused climate change.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 30 “Climate 101” was planned as the first of a two-part open workshop series for residents to engage in the process. It followed a simple format of two presentations, one a shortened version of Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth slide show that provided a “big picture” look at climate change, presented by Gore-trained presenter Ingrid Liepa; the second a more in-depth look at climate science and projected local impacts from CBT Advisory Committee expert Mel Reasoner.
Figure 7: Small Group Mapping of Impact Pathways for Tourism The second workshop of the series centred on planning for climate change, engaging local residents into mapping local impact pathways for priority issues after hearing presentations from CBT Advisory Committee experts: Stewart Cohen presented on climate impacts and adaptation planning, and Trevor Murdock of PCIC shared the highlights of PCIC’s analysis with the community. A facilitated small group format was used to involve participants in generating impact pathways for the priority issues. In an effort to engage local youth, a shortened version of each workshop was presented to Grade 10 Planning students at the local high school. The issues and concerns identified by students were not dissimilar from those voiced in the community workshops, and they demonstrated a very strong sense of local ecological and socio-economic connections in the impact pathways mapping. For additional information on the two community workshops, a more detailed workshop report can be found in the appendices.
4.3 Open House and Report to Community In June 2009 local residents and stakeholders were invited to an open house and presentations on both the Kimberley project’s findings and draft recommendations and CALP’s local visioning of Kimberley’s climate impacts and planning opportunities. Participants were invited to provide feedback on the project’s recommendations and to participate in demonstrations of CALP’s GoogleEarth interactive visualizations of Kimberley under different scenarios. Feedback from workshop evaluations was overwhelmingly positive and pointed to the high level of interest the project created among participants. For more information, a detailed report can be found in the appendices.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 31 4.4 Community Survey A simple four-question community survey was developed to gather additional information about the perceived priorities of Kimberley residents and was circulated via direct mail to households and businesses between the first and second community workshop in fall 2008. Return rate on the survey was 2.4 percent, which is slightly above the North American norm of 2 percent for direct mail surveys. The survey asked residents to rank the importance of 14 climate impacts related to the four priority issues of water, forests, municipal infrastructure and tourism. It also asked whether they agreed with the need for climate adaptation planning, whether they were seeing evidence of climate change in the local area, and whether they expected to see the climate in and around Kimberley change over the coming decades. Table 5: Community Survey Responses on Importance of 14 Climate Impacts Potential Impact Not Important Somewhat Important Very Important Urgent Total Not or Somewhat Important Very Important or Urgent Reduced Water Supply 3 11 54 34 102 14 88 Lower Water Quality 6 6 61 26 99 12 87 More Mountain Pine Beetle 3 18 51 27 99 21 78 Increased Fire Risk 4 21 52 24 101 25 76 Changes to Forest Ecosystems 7 29 55 11 102 36 66 Risks to Food Security 8 31 49 14 102 39 63 Disruptions from Extreme Weather 4 26 49 13 92 30 62 Impacts on Outdoor Recreation 6 30 53 8 97 36 61 More Extreme Weather 5 33 50 8 96 38 58 Shorter Snow Season 9 35 48 10 102 44 58 More Invasive Weeds/Species 7 41 45 9 102 48 54 New Risks to Health 9 41 38 13 101 50 51 Less Winter Tourism 14 42 39 7 102 56 46 Increased Flooding Risk 14 46 31 11 102 60 42 Increased Summer Tourism 14 45 40 2 101 59 42 Increased Amenity Migration 11 45 31 5 92 56 36
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 32 A copy of the survey and complete results can be found in the appendices. 4.5 Media and Other Promotion of the Project News releases were prepared for all of the public events and milestones of the project and were subsequently published in the local newspaper, the Kimberley Daily Bulletin. The project also received spots in the Kootenay Advertiser, GO Kimberley, and CBC’s BC Almanac radio show. Over the course of the project, in addition to the planned project workshops and CBT Learning Network, special presentations were made to the local Rotary Club, the CBT’s Board of Directors, and the Association of Kootenay Boundary Local Government’s April 2009 annual general meeting. A mobile display unit highlighting the City of Kimberley’s commitments around climate change and community sustainability was commissioned near the end of the project and was set up at an Earth Day Community Marketplace, a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction workshop, and the final community workshop for this project. It is expected that the display will be used on numerous additional occasions in the future.
CBT’s fold-out brochure entitled Changing Climate, Changing Basin was made available at all community events and at the City of Kimberley’s front reception area. Approximately 200 copies were distributed over the course of the project. 4.6 Learning Reflections 1. Identifying and bringing together a broad group of local stakeholders who may have an interest in climate impacts and adaptation planning at the front end of the project was a really valuable exercise, especially via a workshop over 1.25 days. The initial workshop accomplished two important things for the project: 1) it enabled a “first-cut” identification of priority issues at the very beginning of the project, and 2) it created a general awareness of the project and its goals among a broad cross-section of community leaders and stakeholders.
2. In hindsight, radio was an underutilized medium during the project. Setting up interviews for visiting experts or the local coordinator at key junctures of the project would have made for some good general coverage and community awareness of the project. 3. The community survey may have had a higher response rate if it had also been available on-line and published in the local newspaper. Having it available to residents in these two forms in addition to the direct mail route is recommended, even though it adds additional complexity in terms of collecting and tabulating results.
4. The most successful workshops are those that combine concise delivery of subject matter from visiting experts with interactive components designed to engage participants. In general, residents and local stakeholders are very receptive to activities that enable them to share information and provide input or guidance. 5. In Kimberley, the Mayor and several councillors attended all the workshops. This was very valuable in demonstrating the City’s commitment to the project to the community, and it also provided important opportunities for residents and stakeholders to interact with their elected officials in facilitated small group processes, which strengthens the local sense of community for all concerned.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 33 6. Kimberley’s process relied significantly on Steering Committee members to assist with facilitation at workshops as well as some of the general house-keeping tasks. A better avenue would be to hire some local workshop assistants to ease the commitment level of volunteer Steering Committee members and free up the project coordinator from minor logistical details during the workshop.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 34
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 35 5.0 Assessment & Planning: Priority Issues & Recommended Actions 5.1 Overview of Process On confirmation of the priority issues of Water & Forests, Municipal Infrastructure and Tourism with City Council in December 2008, multi-stakeholder working groups were established to identify and assess Kimberley’s vulnerabilities for each of the priority issues using input from residents and information gathered at earlier stages of the project, and then determined recommendations for action. Figure 9 below provides a general overview of how the working groups fit into the overall project process, with the left hand column showing the progression of work.
Figure 8: Working Group Process Showing Key Steps and Milestones June Invitational Workshop Community Direct Mail Survey October Community Workshop Feb 2 Kick Off Meeting Late February Vulnerability Screening Mar 25 or 26 Preliminary Visualization Workshop Early April – ID. Planning & Action Early June – Community Workshop End June – Final Report TIMELINE Scenario Working Group inputs to CALP Outputs to CALP for visualization Workshop on Visualization & Draft Recommendations Determine Priority Issue Areas: Water/Forestry, MI, Tourism Vulnerability/adaptiveness screening to identify/validate key risks within Priority Issue Areas Establish multi-stakeholder Working Groups for Priority Issues areas Recommendations for Action: • Mainstreaming/No Regrets • More data gathering • Detailed assessment • OCP Renewal/Long Term Final Report, Visualization & Next Steps for Climate Adaptation Planning in Kimberley PCIC Analysis & other info/data Process for Screening of Climate Impacts and Identifying Recommendations for Adaptation
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 36 The multi-stakeholder groups ranged in size from 5 to 8 individuals, and brought together a range of Steering Committee members, City councillors and staff, and other local stakeholders with specific expertise or interest in a priority issue. The groups met twice through the months of February and March: once to identify and screen vulnerabilities associated with their respective priority issues, and a second time to identify appropriate actions to address those vulnerabilities. Worksheets were developed for each group to assist in tracking identification, assessment and action planning for each area of vulnerability. A final compiled matrix of recommended actions and associated narrative was subsequently circulated to all working group members for review and comment.
The following general concepts were used in evaluating vulnerabilities: Table 6: Definition of Terms for Vulnerability Assessment Vulnerability The degree to which a natural or human system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change and additional human-induced pressures. The vulnerability of a system is determined by the magnitude and rate of climate change to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. a) High: High sensitivity + low adaptive capacity b) Moderate: Medium sensitivity + medium adaptive capacity c) Low: Low sensitivity + high adaptive capacity Sensitivity The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by a climate- related stressor or human induced pressure.
a) Low: Affects from climate change unlikely b) Medium: Affects from climate change possible c) High: Affects from climate change very likely Resilience The amount of change a system can undergo without changing state, or the degree to which the system is able to rebound or recover from a stressor or driver. Adaptation Refers to adjustments in ecological-social-economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli, their effects and/or impacts. Adaptive Capacity The ability of a system to adjust to climate change and moderate potential damages, take advantage of opportunities, or cope with the consequences.
a) Low: Actions are difficult and costly b) Moderate: Actions possible with some disruptions and/or costs c) High: Actions possible with minimum disruptions and cost The priority issues selected ensured that vulnerabilities within Kimberley’s natural environment, built environment and socio-economic environment would be identified and considered. It was felt that this approach would provide the best overview of Kimberley’s vulnerabilities to climate change and also create the opportunity to identify important synergies and connections between the three types of environment that make up a community.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 37 Figure 9: Inter-relationship of Environments On identification of recommended actions within each working group, they were each priorized according to the following measures: Table 7: Definitions for Threat Reduction and Urgency of Action Rating Threat Reduction Urgency of Action High (H) This action will help reduce the risk of damage to Kimberley homes, economic conditions and/or living conditions affecting more than 10% of Kimberley's population Initiate action in 0-2 years, or between 2009-2011 Medium (M) This action will help reduce the risk of damage to Kimberley homes, economic conditions and/or living conditions affecting less than 10% of Kimberley's population Initiate action in 3-10 years, or between 2012-2019 Low (L) This action will not reduce the risk of damage to Kimberley homes, economic conditions and/or living conditions, but may reduce the risk of impacts to other aspects of life Initiate action in 10+ years Combining ratings for threat reduction and urgency of action create the final priority rating for a recommended action: L, L+, M, M+ or H.
5.1.1 Note Regarding Complete Action Matrix versus Summary Tables in the Report The complete action table is in a large spreadsheet that does not lend itself to this report format, so summary tables were used in the sections below to show the highlights of proposed adaptive actions. The Natural Environment Built Environment Socio Environment
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 38 complete action matrix spreadsheet, found in the appendices, should be used as the source document for determining which actions to pursue in the short term, and contains the following information: 1. Goal statement for each priority area 2. Statement of objective for each vulnerability 3. Action ID number 4. Recommended action 5. Action type, eg. no regrets, OCP, long term, mainstreaming, etc. 6. Threat reduction (H/M/L) 7. Urgency for action (H/M/L) 8. Priority (H, M+, M, L+, L) 9. Lead/champion 10. Other key stakeholders 11. Links to other vulnerabilities and actions 12. Additional narrative/background to help frame the action 5.2 Natural Environment: Water and Forests Goal statement for Water and Forests: Protecting the integrity of Kimberley's forests and waters in a changing climate through timely planning and implementation of adaptation measures Water and forests consistently ranked as top priorities and concerns for local residents and stakeholders, with municipal water supply and the risk of wildfire as the number one issues that came forward under each area.
The working group began with a broad list of issues and concerns over water and forests that had been raised over the course of the project. It subsequently narrowed its efforts to five key vulnerabilities by examining both sensitivity and adaptive capacity associated with each issue. Climate adaptation goals were established for both water and forests. The five key vulnerabilities and associated goals were: Table 8: Goals and Vulnerabilities for Water and Forests Water Forests Goal Work towards a high degree of knowledge and understanding of Kimberley's water sources and system to ensure long-term sustainability and adaptation in a changing climate Minimize threats to forest health, watersheds, the local tourist economy and the built environment through adaptive management of the forests surrounding Kimberley.
Municipal Water Supply Forest Health, Mountain Pine Beetle and Risk of Wildfire Quality of Aquatic Environment Key Vulnerabilities Risk of Flooding Wildfire and Risk to the Built Environment An overview of each area of vulnerability and recommended actions is provided below. A more detailed action matrix for each vulnerability can be found in the appendices.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 39 With respect to water, an important reference for future local actions on water may well be the province’s Living Water Smart initiative, a water plan tabled in 2008 that sets out a comprehensive agenda for provincial, local and residential action on water stewardship and conservation.25 The plan also incorporates an ecosystem-based approach to preserving water quality and quantity. The water-related actions identified in this project will support Kimberley in meeting the goals articulated in the provincial plan. 5.2.1 Municipal Water Supply Objective: Kimberley is resilient to drought and seasonal low-water periods while maintaining adequate water for ecosystem needs.
The combination of hotter, drier summers and lower stream flows during summer and early fall raises the prospect of municipal water shortages in Kimberley, especially if the population grows and per capita demand remains at just over double the provincial average. The actions identified by the working group effectively constitute the nuts and bolts of a local drought strategy as per the province’s recommended guidebook.26 The following actions were identified for Kimberley – they are listed in order of priority. Table 9: Recommended Actions for Municipal Water Supply ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion WF-1 Determine the reasons Kimberley has more than double the BC average for water consumption H H H+ City WF-2 Determine the limits of current water supply for current demands and future growth, including estimates of drought flows incorporating future climate change scenarios H H H+ City WF-10 Develop a plan to address community water use and reservoir management during drought conditions H H H City WF-3 Investigate feasibility and costs of using alternative water sources, e.g. cisterns, tanks, grey water recycling and re-use of waste water for residential, commercial and municipal use.
H M M+ City WF-4 Minimize leakage and other losses from water distribution system through system repairs & high standard of operations M M M City WF-5 Promote water conservation in residential and commercial indoor water use through a strategic combination of municipal L H M City 25 See www.livingwatersmart.ca for more information on the province’s plan and agenda for water. 26 In 2004 the BC government published Dealing with Drought: A Handbook for Water Suppliers in British Columbia, which provides a comprehensive outline of how to create a local drought strategy.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 40 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion regulatory tools, incentives, and education.27 WF-6 Promote water conservation in residential and commercial outdoor water use through a strategic combination of municipal regulatory tools, incentives, and education.28 L H M City WF-7 Promote water conservation in City of Kimberley by reducing water use for irrigation, improving soil conditions, and shifting to xeriscaping, native and drought tolerant plants, and eco-grasses where appropriate L H M City WF-8 Promote water conservation by current and future industrial users by raising industrial water rates to within a reasonable margin of the provincial average, and requiring industrial users to explore alternate sources for irrigation and snow-making L M L+ City WF-9 Provide economic incentives for residential water conservation by phased introduction of water metering and setting a objective date for metering in all households.
L M L+ City 27 For specific details, please consult the accompanying narrative in the detailed action matrix in the appendices. 28 For specific details, please consult the accompanying narrative in the detailed action matrix in the appendices.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 41 5.2.2 Quality of Aquatic Environment Objective: Aquatic life and local fish populations are protected and maintained despite the stresses of a warming climate During much of Kimberley’s mining days, mine effluent was discharged straight into Mark Creek. Acid rock drainage resulting from mine operations gave Mark Creek an orange appearance, which led some to conclude that the Creek would never recover. In 1979 a mine drainage water treatment plant came into operation, and in the mid to late 1990s the first fish in decades were spotted in urban Mark Creek. The Mark Creek Recovery Program was implemented soon after to support recovery and restoration of the local aquatic and riparian environment, focusing on the stretch of creek between the dam several kilometers upstream of Kimberley and the confluence of Mark Creek with the St Mary River. The creek provides a home for genetically pure Westslope cutthroat trout, a provincially blue-listed (threatened) species.
To ensure an aquatic environment that is sustainable for fish and other species in a warming climate that is likely to see a drop in summer and early fall stream flows, the proposed recommendations focus on establishing and maintaining minimum stream flows and continuing to improve the riparian environment to increase resilience of the aquatic habitat. Table 10: Recommended Actions for Quality of Aquatic Environment ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion WF- 12 i) Monitor stream temperatures and BOD in Kimberley, Lois, Mark and Matthew Creeks (both up and downstream of diversions) through summer and fall L H M Wildsight WF- 13 Monitor and ensure compliance by forest tenure holders with the Forest and Range Practices Act L H M Ministry of Forests WF- 14 Ensure compliance with riparian protection provisions of OCP; develop and implement riparian protection bylaw for all types of city- regulated land use.
L H M City WF- 16 Support community efforts for restoration of riparian vegetation communities L H M City WF-11 Establish and maintain minimum instream flows for Mark and Matthew Creeks adequate to maintain westslope cutthroat trout (and bull trout populations in Matthew Creek). L M L+ City WF- 15 Develop a long-term plan for snow storage (from snow removal operations) to minimize impacts to riparian vegetation and habitat L M L+ City
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 42 5.2.3 Risk of Flooding Objective: Flood risks to Kimberley homes and infrastructure are minimized through updating flood hazard information to incorporate projected climate impacts and corresponding mitigative actions. Kimberley has experienced flooding of both Mark Creek and Kimberley Creek in its past. With the prospect of warmer, wetter winters, the increased likelihood of both rain-on-snow events and extreme storm events, there is good reason to believe that the right combination of events could again cause flooding in Kimberley. In fact, communities are experiencing more frequent return cycles for 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year flood events, with the City of Grand Forks having recently experienced two 1-in-100 year floods within five years. Recommended actions focus on updating flood hazard information, prevention, and emergency management.
Despite being ranked as a low priority recommendation in terms of urgency and threat reduction, the recommendation to do a visioning exercise for the Mark Creek flume (WF-19/MI- 23) is viewed by both the Water & Forests and Municipal Infrastructure working groups as something that would be valuable to the community. The objective of a visioning exercise would be to identify a medium to long term strategy for replacement of the two concrete flumes in Mark Creek along with restoration of more natural streambed conditions. This would ideally include a long-term strategy for acquiring "at-risk" properties in the most significant flood risk zones. Restoration of the flumed area in the downtown area is viewed as a significant opportunity to increase the attractiveness of the area for tourists and residents alike. Table 11: Recommended Actions to Reduce Risk of Flooding ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion WF- 20/ MI-24 Undertake a comprehensive flood hazard study for Kimberley, including further analysis of stream flow data for flood return frequency, digital elevation model, possible obstruction/blockage sites and weak/low points in the system.
M H M++ City WF-17/ MI-21 Review 1999 Mark Creek Flood Study and subsequent report by Wildsight (2007) with respect to increasing freeboard upstream of flume M H M+ City - Operations WF- 18/ MI-22 Review and update the Emergency Flood Plan described in the 1999 Mark Creek Flood Study M H M+ City – Fire Chief WF- 22/ MI-11 Undertake annual fall inspection/clean up of Kimberley Creek culvert to reduce risk of debris blockages M H M+ City - Operations WF- 23/ MI-26 Investigate options for flood hazard reduction in Kimberley/Lois Creek area, including upstream of Morrison sub-division M H M+ City WF- Commit to renew current OCP actions M H M+ City
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 43 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion 24/ MI-12 related to storm water management and flooding; identifying at-risk drainage catchments; design drainage and flood control on the basis of updated return cycles for storm events; develop an integrated stormwater management plan WF- 25/ MI-10 Review maintenance/ inspection schedules for stormwater drains to minimize risk of localized flooding in areas that have flooded in the past M H M+ City WF-21/ MI-25 Obtain and incorporate updated storm event return periods for design of different classes of municipal infrastructure M M M City WF- 19/ MI-23 Undertake a community visioning exercise around Mark Creek flume as part of next OCP review.
L M L+ City 5.2.4 Forest Health, Mountain Pine Beetle and Risk of Wildfire Objective: To minimize the risk of catastrophic fire in Kimberley's watersheds and ensure logging activity minimizes impact to water quality and stream flows in Mark, Matthew and Kimberley Creeks. Mountain pine beetle, an early sign of a warming climate, has infested lodgepole pine stands in both the Mark and Matthew Creek watersheds, which has resulted in accelerated logging in these two areas. The infestation creates significant management dilemmas in that beetle-killed forests create a more significant wildfire risk if left standing, and logging results in more immediate impacts to watershed hydrology and water quality. A crown fire in either watershed would negatively impact drinking water quality for many years to come, and significantly alter overall watershed hydrology.
Projected climate impacts such as hotter, drier summers and lower soil moisture will increase wildfire risk in southern BC, result in a longer forest fire season over time, and increase the likelihood of larger fires with higher intensity. Recognizing the need to balance competing values around forest health, health of Kimberley’s watersheds and reducing the risk of catastrophic wildifre, the following actions were identified: Table 12: Recommended Actions on Forest Health, Mountain Pine Beetle and Wildfire Risk Reduction ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion WF-28 Contact Tembec to assist in defining spill response locations for Kimberley and Matthew Creek. Identify and map locations for pumping stations and clearly mark with signs on site.
H H H City
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 44 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion WF-32 Ensure Total Chance Access Planning is in place for all three watersheds (Mark, Kimberley, Matthew) and that regular refreshers (annual) occur for fire crew and contractors. H H H City – Fire Chief WF-33 Obtain standing permission from Mayor for wildfire response in the City's watersheds H H H City WF-35 Maintain and improve communications with the SE Fire Centre in Castlegar H H H City – Fire Chief WF- 36/ MI-8 Ensure plan for alternative drinking water source for the community in the event of wildfire in Mark Creek watershed H H H City WF-29 Remain current on forest research and strategies used by other communities to manage forests in interface and community watersheds M H M+ Integrated Watershed Committee WF-26 Include Matthew Creek in the scope of the Integrated Watershed Committee to provide a coordinated approach to watershed management in Kimberley L H M City WF-30 Explore/pilot alternative silvilculture practices, including replanting with a mix of species. Experiment with deciduous species in test plots on low risk areas in local watersheds and Nordic Centre, for e.g. L H M Integrated Watershed Committee WF-31 Request Tembec to participate/update Integrated Watershed Committee around harvesting/treatment plans for dead pine in Matthew and Kimberley Creeks, L H M City WF-34 Continue efforts to prohibit recreational access to Mark Creek watershed L H M City 5.2.5 Wildfire and Risk to the Built Environment Objective: To protect life and property from the threat of wildfire. Since the catastrophic wildfires in Kelowna in 2003, reducing the risk of wildfire to the human and built environment has become a significant priority for communities across BC. Kimberley has made significant progress on interface forest fuel treatment, having achieved approximately 50 percent of its overall plan to date. The working group identified additional opportunities to reduce risk through greater penetration of FireSmart principles within Kimberley’s built environment, and observed that local biomass energy potential could be investigated in greater detail given the large volume of trees that are being cut for interface forest fuel reduction purposes.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 45 Table 13: Recommendation Actions to Reduce Risk of Wildfire to the Built Environment ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion WF-37 Continuation of current suite of interface fuel treatment activities, with addition of community education program to build and maintain support for interface fuel management H H H City – Fire Chief WF-39 Encourage community uptake of FireSmart building and landscaping guidelines H H H City WF- 40/ MI-16 Review and update community emergency response plans for all emergencies (fire, flood, extreme storm events, etc), including emergency communication and evacuation plans H H H City – Fire Chief WF-38 Undertake feasibility study on biomass energy potential for Kimberley & area M H M+ City 5.3 Built Environment: Municipal Infrastructure Goal Statement for Municipal Infrastructure: Kimberley's municipal infrastructure is resilient to the stresses of a changing climate. A changing climate has numerous implications for the design, operation and maintenance of municipal infrastructure. A number of Canadian communities have now experienced the challenges and impacts to existing infrastructure as a result of new climate extremes that were not anticipated when the infrastructure was originally designed. The built environment has traditionally been designed on the basis of historical climate data. With climate change, responsible design will be based on future climate conditions projected to occur over its operational lifespan. In general, climate scientists are predicting that return periods for extreme events will be roughly half of what they have been in the past, thus what has customarily been known as a 1-in-100 year weather event is projected to become a 1-in-50 year event by the end of this century.29 Table 14: Average Lifespans of Municipal Infrastructure Components Adaptation is expensive; however, the costs of not adapting infrastructure will be greater in many cases. Uncertainty and cost should not be barriers to implementing certain adaptation options. “No-regrets” adaptations provide cost-effective benefits regardless of future climate changes. “No- regrets” adaptations for infrastructure include actions such 29 Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee, Adapting to Climate Change: Canada’s First National Engineering Assessment of Public Infrastructure, 2008.
Lifespan Major Upgrades or Refurbishment Reconstruction Houses & Buildings 50-100 years 15-20 years 50-100 years Storm/Sanitary Sewer 100 years 25-50 years Dams/Water Supply 50-100 years 20-30 years 50 years Roads 50-100 years 10-20 years 50-100 years Bridges 50-100 years 20-25 years 50-100 years
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 46 as analyses of infrastructure failures; regular infrastructure maintenance; community disaster management planning; updating climatic design values and engineering codes and standards; and improving the quality and length of climate data records.30 Adaptation of infrastructure presents specific challenges such as the long life spans of some infrastructure and the expense of retro-fitting or changing infrastructure. In response to this, Engineers Canada partnered with Natural Resources Canada to set up the Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) to undertake a national assessment of the vulnerability of Canadian infrastructure to climate change.31 Templates generated by the national infrastructure assessment project were adapted for use in Kimberley’s adaptation project to help screen Kimberley’s infrastructure for areas of high vulnerability.32 Samples of the adapted template can be found in the appendices. The municipal infrastructure working group used the following definition to single out infrastructure components of high vulnerability based on its understanding of climate predictions to the 2040s: Based on best available judgment (engineering and operational), there is a high risk of reduced or limited performance and perhaps even failure of the element due to the indicated climatic factor. High vulnerabilities will require remedial action in the short-to-medium term (0-8 yrs). Note: A high vulnerability may also exist if there is insufficient information or too many unknowns to make a professional judgment. 33 The working group subsequently identified a series of adaptive actions for each area of vulnerability. Table 15: Kimberley’s Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Associated Goals Vulnerability Objective Urban Trees Kimberley develops an urban forestry plan to ensure safe and healthy trees throughout the community Drinking Water System Kimberley's drinking water system provides high quality drinking water for the community while minimizing water loss Flooding associated with storm water system Kimberley develops and adopts an integrated storm water management plan that reflects future climate projections Wildfire Protection and Municipal Infrastructure City of Kimberley takes appropriate measures to reduce wildfire risks to significant municipal infrastructure Slope Failure At-risk slopes are identified and there is a clear plan to manage risk associated with them.
Risk of Flooding Flood risks to Kimberley homes and infrastructure are minimized through updating flood hazard information to incorporate project climate impacts and corresponding mitigative actions. 30 Auld, H. and D. MacIver. Cities and Communities: The Changing Climate and Increasing Vulnerability of Infrastructure. Occasional Paper 3. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Group, 2005) 31 For more information on PIEVC and its initiatives, visit www.pievc.ca 32 See Adapting to Climate Change: Canada’s First National Engineering Assessment of Public Infrastructure, Canadian Council of Professional Engineers, April 2008 for original templates.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 47 Vulnerability Objective Future Proofing and “Other” Considerations Kimberley's built and human environment is resilient to climate change and its impacts 5.3.1 Urban Trees Objective: Kimberley develops an urban forestry plan to ensure safe and healthy trees throughout the community Kimberley is surrounded by trees and has many beautiful trees in its neighbourhoods, parks and green spaces. They are an essential component of Kimberley’s natural infrastructure, and will play an increasingly important role in climate adaptation by providing shade areas during heat waves in summer and improved infiltration of water into soil. It is also important to recognize that trees grow slowly, and that decisions taken now about urban tree management will play out over several decades.
Changes in temperature, precipitation, frost-free days and other environmental factors such as wind and storm events could compromise the health of Kimberley’s urban trees and increase the likelihood of damage to property and person during high wind events. Higher temperatures in winter may also increase the likelihood of winter kill, in which trees begin to circulate water and nutrients in their vascular tissue as the temperatures warm. If this is followed by rapid cooling (e.g. Chinook conditions in southern Alberta), tissues will freeze and the trees will sustain injury or death.34 Thus managing for tree health will become increasingly important, as well as planning for succession of existing mature trees. The following actions were identified for the short to medium term: Table 16: Recommendations for Management of Urban Trees ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion MI-1 Put up signs at entrances to Black Bear- Marysville Trail warning of falling cottonwood branches during high wind events.
L H M City MI-2 Encourage regular inspection and removal of hazard trees or branches in the community L H M City MI-3 Develop urban forestry and tree renewal strategy for Kimberley M M M City 5.3.2 Drinking Water System Objective: Kimberley's drinking water system provides high quality drinking water for the community while minimizing water loss 34 Mark Johnston, Impacts and Adaptation for Climate Change in Urban Forests, Saskatchewan Research Council, prepared for the sixth Canadian Urban Forest Conference, October 2004.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 48 This section documents recommended actions for the infrastructure component of Kimberley’s municipal water supply – supply lines, pump stations, chlorination systems, pressure reducing stations, etc. For a more complete picture of the overall municipal water system that includes source water considerations also check s. 5.2.1. Overall, Kimberley enjoys excellent drinking water out of its Mark Creek and Matthew Creek systems, though some challenges remain as a result of an aging system of underground pipes that are currently upgraded or “fixed” on an incremental basis. At present time Mark Creek can supply the community with its drinking water needs if Matthew Creek water were to go offline, but this is not reciprocal, that is, there is no way to pump Matthew Creek water uptown in the event that Mark Creek water cannot be used. One of the most significant uncertainties lies around future requirements of the province’s Drinking Water Act which could require more intensive water treatment may in the future.
Table 17: Recommendations for City Drinking Water System ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion MI-8/ WF-36 Undertake cost-benefit analysis for reciprocal back-up water system from Matthew Creek or St Mary's River if Mark Creek system goes down H H H City MI-9 Reduce risk to chlorination plants and associated infrastructure through appropriate firesmarting H H H City MI-4 Upgrade chlorination plants or extend water treatment to effectively treat higher and more turbid flows if/when provincial regulations require it H M M+ City MI-5 Replace older mains, step up flushing programs, and loop dead ends in water distribution system M H M+ City MI-6 Reduce system damage from freeze/thaw cycles and sedimentation by reviewing/updating maintenance schedules for Matthew Creek intake, City pump and pressure reduction stations as needed L H M City 5.3.3 Flooding Associated with Storm Water System Objective: Kimberley develops and adopts an integrated stormwater management plan that reflects future climate projections Kimberley has experienced occasional and highly localized flooding from its storm water system in the past and for the most part it has not been a significant issue. However, with the prospect of more severe storm
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 49 events and more winter precipitation in the form of rain, it is appropriate to keep this item on the agenda for both the City Operations department and with respect to upcoming OCP renewal. Table 18: Recommendations to Reduce Flooding Associated with the Storm Water System ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion MI-11/ WF-22 Undertake annual fall inspection/clean up of Kimberley Creek culvert to reduce risk of debris blockages M H M+ City MI-12/ WF-24 Commit to renew current OCP actions related to stormwater management and flooding; identifying at-risk drainage catchments; design drainage and flood control on the basis of updated return cycles for storm events; develop an integrated stormwater management plan M H M+ City MI-10/ WF-25 Review maintenance/ inspection schedule for stormwater drains to minimize localized flooding L H M City 5.3.4 Wildfire Protection and Municipal Infrastructure Objective: City of Kimberley takes appropriate measures to reduce wildfire risks to significant municipal infrastructure This vulnerability was also considered by the Water & Forests Working Group, whose recommended actions on wildfire and the built environment can be found in s. 5.2.5. There are two main components to addressing this vulnerability – prevention and emergency response planning. Table 19: Recommendations to Protect Municipal Infrastructure from Wildfire ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion MI-9 Reduce risk to chlorination plants and associated infrastructure through appropriate firesmarting H H H City – Fire Chief MI-15/ WF-37 Continuation of current suite of interface fuel treatment activities, with addition of community education program to build and maintain support for interface fuel management H H H City - Fire Chief MI-16/ WF-40 Review and update community emergency response plans for all emergencies (fire, flood, extreme storm events, etc) H H H City - Fire Chief
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 50 5.3.5 Risk of Slope Failure Objective: At-risk slopes are identified and there is a clear plan to manage risk associated with them. As a mountain community, steep slopes are part and parcel of Kimberley’s municipal landscape. Kimberley has generally not had issues with slope failures without some kind of contributing factor such as inappropriate water diversions. Even in those instances the failures have been relatively contained in terms of size and impact to property. Nonetheless, there are some steep slopes, cuts and embankments along both Highway 95A and Mark Creek that have slipped in the past and were identified as worthy of some kind of minimal monitoring given the prospect of warmer, wetter winters and more extreme storm and rain events.
Table 20: Recommendations to Reduce Risk of Slope Failure ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion MI-18 Minimize development, disturbance and vegetation removal on and near slopes exceeding 25% as per Natural Hazard Areas identified in OCP M H M+ City MI-19 Visually monitor at-risk slopes for signs of subsidence, instability M H M+ City MI-20 Clarify jurisdiction over at-risk slopes along Hwy 95A within city limits M H M+ Ministry of Transport MI-17 Review previous City studies and/or available information on slope stability issues that have occurred in community L H M City - Operations 5.3.6 Risk of Flooding Risk of Flooding was also considered under the Water & Forests Working Group. The proposed actions of the working groups around flooding were combined into one – see s.5.2.3. 5.3.7 Future Proofing and “Other” Considerations Objective: Kimberley's built and human environment is resilient to climate change and its impacts The idea of “future-proofing” comes from the growing recognition of major global trends that are inter- related and that will increasingly shape the future, including climate change, peak oil, population growth, aging populations, resource scarcity, continued expansion of digital media, etc. Climate adaptation planning is a key element of future proofing communities. This particular section of proposed actions addresses items that were outside of the key vulnerabilities yet were identified as important to put forward in the context of municipal operations and infrastructure.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 51 Table 21: Recommendations for Future Proofing Kimberley’s Municipal Infrastructure ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion MI-32 Incorporation of climate impacts and adaptation measures into the City’s upcoming 10 year infrastructure plan H H H City MI-28 Regularly review & update key operations/ maintenance procedures to factor in new climate patterns & extremes M H M+ City MI-27 Ensure design/upgrading of all municipal infrastructure, including new residential development, reflects the projected changes to local climate over its operational lifespan. M M M City MI-29 Identify City committees that would benefit from adding consideration of climate impacts/ adaptation to their terms of reference and decision making L H M City MI-30 Work with community partners and residents to better control/manage invasive weeds within municipal boundaries L H M City MI-33 Pursue establishment of a permanent meteorological station in Kimberley L H M City MI-31 Step up mosquito control in the event of vector borne diseases becoming present in this area M L L+ City/Interior Health 5.4 Socio-Economic Environment: Tourism A mainstay of Kimberley’s local economy is tourism and outdoor recreation. Given future climate scenarios, the outdoor recreational focus of tourism in this area brings both threats and opportunities to the local sector. Planning for climate adaptation in tourism has an additional layer of complexity (and opportunity) because it involves both looking at how climate will impact the quality of Kimberley’s tourism product and how climate change is impacting the places where tourists are coming from, or other popular destinations that currently attract tourists. For example, summers are warming throughout North America, yet because of the temperatures and conditions associated with warming in California, the relatively cooler summer temperatures in southern BC may make it a more attractive destination for some. A number of Rocky Mountain destinations have conducted studies to determine how climate change might impact visitation and demand for outdoor recreation opportunities. Banff’s visitor survey concluded that it would take very substantial environmental changes associated with current climate projections for the 2080s to impact visitation.35 Studies conducted in Montana have stressed the importance of investigating 35 D.Scott & B.Jones, Climate Change & Banff National Park: Implications for Tourism and Recreation, prepared for the Town of Banff, University of Waterloo, 2005.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 52 tourist response to both temperature change and ecosystem changes. They show a number of important trends: 1) once temperatures sustain at 80 degrees F or higher, visitation drops significantly, 2) a reduction in forest-cover will result in drops to forest-based recreation, 3) low summer stream flows negatively impact participation in both fishing and paddling, 4) wildfire causes immediate reductions in visitation and long term reductions in visitation in the event of a crown fire, and, 5) skier visits drop when snowfall is down and snow season is shortened.36 The tourism working group looked at all of Kimberley’s tourism assets through the lens of climate change, identifying both threats from climate impacts and opportunities to enhance attractions. They used a worksheet developed by CBT Advisory Committee member Cindy Pearce which was adapted to focus their work on each area of vulnerability. The group thus looked at both climate and non-climate stresses for an area of vulnerability in both the short term (next 10 years) and long term (10-40 years). Table 22: Vulnerability Assessment Worksheet used by Tourism Working Group Adaptive capacity Climate stress + Non-climate stresses = Potential impacts Possible actions Can we do it? Challenges/ Barriers Are we vulnerable? Timeframe – Now + 5 years Future timeframe – 2020 to 2050 VULNERAB I L I TY 36 Alison Dimond, Perry Brown, Wayne Freimund, Impacts of Climate Change on Recreation and Tourism in the Northern Rockies, University of Montana, powerpoint presentation for Climate Change and Crown of the Continent workshop, 2008.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 53 Table 23: Key Tourism Vulnerabilities and Objectives Vulnerability Objective Ski Tourism To maintain a viable commercial ski hill operation for as long as possible without compromising municipal water supply and related water values. Golf Tourism To maintain three commercially viable golf courses in Kimberley for as long as possible without compromising municipal water supply and related water values. Trail-Based Tourism To enhance, protect and more effectively promote Kimberley's trail systems as a valuable recreational and eco-tourism asset in a changing climate.
Water-Based Tourism Enhance awareness of our precious local rivers and lakes and help ensure appropriate land/resource use management decisions to manage and protect them in a changing climate Festival & Event Based Tourism Maximize opportunities for festivals afforded by a changing climate while ensuring health and safety of visitors Other Local Attractions Preserve character of local tourist attractions and general mountain town feel in a changing climate 5.4.1 Ski Tourism Objective: To maintain a viable commercial ski hill operation for as long as possible without compromising municipal water supply and related water values.
The working group recognized that all ski hills in southeastern BC are likely to experience, on balance, warmer and wetter winters over time, but that some resorts may be more resilient in terms of maintaining skier visits because their snow reliability and quality is better or perceived to be better relative to other resorts in the area. No studies specific to climate change and ski resorts in this region were found, therefore it is unknown at this time how Kimberley’s alpine resort will fare relative to others in the area. The critical time for all ski resorts is the Christmas season, which has been described as the “make or break” period for the winter season. Having sufficient snow at that time is a huge priority for operators, and considerable effort will go into snowmaking to guarantee a base in the absence of natural snow fall. Adaptation to climate impacts for ski resorts generally focuses on three main strategies: 1) increased snow making all through the ski season, 2) physical changes to the ski area to enhance snow reliability, including landscaping, contouring, better use of trees for shade and to capture snow, expansion of terrain on north facing slopes, and moving the ski hill base higher up the mountain, or 3) diversification of activities available to ski tourists at the resort.37 Adaptation by skiers consists of three general actions, 1) continue skiing at same resort, 2) begin skiing more at another resort with better snow reliability, or 3) reduce or give up skiing. A survey of European skiers asked “where and how often would you ski if you knew the next five winters (at this resort) would 37 D.Scott & G.Boyle, “Climate Adaptation in the Ski Industry” in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Climate Change, Springer, 2007.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 54 have very little natural snow?” Responses were 49% for going to a different resort with more snow, 39% would stick with the resort, 6% were unsure, and 4% would give up skiing.38 The working group recognized that Kimberley Alpine Resort offers a solid product that is already on track with enhanced snowmaking equipment and operations to increase snow reliability, and that diversification of winter activities and opportunities to raise awareness through general stewardship activities could be beneficial in the long run.
Table 24: Recommended Actions for Ski Tourism ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion T-1 To ensure commercially viable early season and late season skiing, continue snowmaking at beginning of season, supplement as needed during season, subject to instream flow needs for Mark Creek M M M RCR T-23 Continued diversification of Kimberley's winter tourism product M M M Tourism Kimberley T-2 Consider adoption of a climate change awareness program for ski-area patrons similar to that of Aspen or Park City L H M RCR 5.4.2 Golf Tourism Objective: To maintain three commercially viable golf courses in Kimberley for as long as possible without compromising municipal water supply and related water values.
Climate change is expected to affect golf courses in a number of ways, ranging from heat, drought and water availability to winter freeze/thaw cycles that damage turf by creating an ice layer over top of it. Increases in turf grass diseases and pests seen further south are also anticipated as they move northwards with a warming climate. Invasive weeds could become an issue for the “rough”, and golf course tree health will be important to monitor given the anticipated increase in climate-related stresses. Adaptation efforts by golf courses are likely to centre on water use, and will adjust according to the volume and cost of water available. If water is plentiful, hot dry conditions will be managed through more watering. If water availability is constrained, tactics will focus on ways to reduce use. It is anticipated that future climate conditions in Kimberley will result in a water-constrained scenario, which is the basis of the recommended actions below.
Anecdotally, demand-side opportunities exist for Kimberley’s golf courses as golfers from warmer climates seek a cooler alternative. There has already been some efforts to attract “climate refugee golfers” from places like Arizona and even Kelowna, and there is interest in formalizing these efforts. 38 Jeannette Behringer,Rolf Buerki and Jürg Fuhrer, “Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture” in Integrated Assessment 1: 331–338, 2000, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 55 On the greenhouse gas mitigation side of the climate change equation, some of the emerging opportunities to monitor include solar powered golf carts39 and carbon sequestration in golf course turf.40 Table 25: Recommended Actions for Kimberley’s Golf Courses ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion T-4 Increase climate resilience by creating more natural courses, seeding with more drought resistant turf/grass species (native, if possible) L M L+ Golf courses T-3 Conserve water through reduction of turf area and installation of greywater systems to reuse water.
L L L Golf courses 5.4.3 Trail-Based Tourism Objective: To enhance, protect and more effectively promote Kimberley's trail systems as a valuable recreational and eco-tourism asset in a changing climate. An extensive network of recreational trails within easy access of the community features as one of Kimberley’s more valuable but relatively undiscovered/unknown tourism assets. While trails within the built environment are maintained by the City, trails outside the City are generally maintained by volunteers. Popular recreational trails are found in the Lois Creek area, the Nature Park, Horse Barn Interpretive Forest, Forest Crowne, Alpine Resort and Nordic Centre.
The two main climate-related threats to trails are the increasing risk of wildfire and logging associated with mountain pine beetle and interface forest fuel reduction. Kimberley's trails are viewed as an underdeveloped tourism asset that is at risk from logging/interface fuel treatments that are insensitive to the values placed on trails by residents and tourists. By enhancing their significance within Kimberley's suite of tourism assets it is felt that they may be better protected from logging activities associated with mountain pine beetle and wildfire risk reduction. The working group’s recommendations seek to find a balance between protection of trails from damage through logging and fuel reduction activity, supporting the continued evolution of trails and trail management as an important tourism asset for the community, and the need to reduce wildfire risk to the community.
Table 26: Recommendations for Trail-Based Tourism ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion T-11 Protection of trails when logging and/or reducing fuel loads in interface forests L H M Various 39 See http://www.suncatchergolf.com/index.html for more information. 40 See http://golfcourseproject.com/Home_Page.html for more information on these efforts.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 56 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion T-12 Enhanced promotion of Kimberley's trails as a tourism attraction, plus local nature tourism in general L H M Tourism Kimberley T-10 Create more formal structure for trail maintenance, expansion and operation, and consider establishing an interactive website to better promote and inform the public about Kimberley’s trails. L M L+ Undetermined 5.4.4 Water-Based Tourism Objective: Enhance awareness of our precious local rivers and lakes and help ensure appropriate land/resource use management decisions to manage and protect them in a changing climate.
Lakes, rivers and streams in the area provide an important draw for tourists, who are attracted by the opportunities for fishing and fly fishing, boating, paddling, rafting, kayaking, and swimming, as well as the simple aesthetic experience of being near water in scenic mountain areas. Climate changes that threaten water-based tourism are low summer flows for creeks and rivers, which can in turn impact recreational and commercial fishing and paddling opportunities. Low flows in the Kootenay River are also an issue for nearby Wasa Lake, a popular recreational destination where lake levels are highly correlated to the levels in the river.
Long time anglers in the St Mary River are seeing some increase in summer water temperatures, with late afternoon temperature occasionally reaching up to 70 degrees F from an average of 50 to 55 degrees F earlier in the day. Trout behaviour will change on exposure to extended periods above 68 degrees water temperature, but this kind of sustained temperature regime is still thought to be decades away. Very low summer water levels in 2003 propelled the local commercial rafting company to bring on inflatable kayaks to extend its offering for local St Mary River trips, which exemplifies adaptation in action. The prospect of earlier freshets and an earlier start to the rafting season is mixed because the summer holiday season remains the same, that is, beginning in mid-June and extending to the Labour Day weekend. There may be great rafting earlier in the season – the issue will be whether clientele will also make the shift.
The working group felt that climate adaptation for water-based tourism will mostly relate to tourists and commercial operators making different choices of equipment, timing of outings, and location, and that these choices will be more or less self-initiated. In response to concerns raised about the impact of logging in Mark, Matthew and St Mary River watersheds on water levels, the working group’s sole recommendation follows in Table 26.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 57 Table 27: Recommendations for Water Based Tourism ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion T-14 Look at relative merits of reinstating a hydrometric station on St Mary's River @ Marysville or upstream, Matthew and/or Mark Creeks. L H M Ministry of Environment 5.4.5 Festival & Event Based Tourism Objective: Maximize opportunities for festivals afforded by a changing climate while ensuring health and safety of visitors Festivals and events form a significant part of Kimberley’s summer and winter tourism offerings, running the spectrum from arts and culture events to sports tournaments and competitions. This is a highly adaptive component of Kimberley’s tourism mix in that festivals and events can be scheduled to take advantage of optimal temperatures and conditions as climate trends shift over time. The working group noted that the prospect of warmer and wetter winters coupled with an increase in freeze-thaw events may require a higher level of attention to ice and snow management in key pedestrian areas, and that increasing summer temperatures may warrant the creation of cooling areas for event patrons.
Opportunities also exist to take advantage of warmer shoulder seasons, especially the fall, to strategically extend Kimberley’s festival and event season, and to draw in tourists from areas that are more dramatically impacted by changing climate. Bus tourism provides another avenue of potential, but is currently hampered by the fact that most of Kimberley’s accommodations are not set up to deal with groups of that size. Table 28: Recommendations for Festival and Event Based Tourism ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion T-16 Ensure excellent ice/snow management in key pedestrian areas M H M+ City & street level businesses T-15 Providing designated cooling areas for summer festivals/events L M L+ City & festival organizers T-17 Encourage more shoulder season festivals and events L M L+ Tourism Kimberley T-19 Promote more bus and geotourism to Kimberley L M L+ Tourism Kimberley T-20 Consider climate-based tourism marketing to US & other areas with greater climate impacts L M L+ Tourism Kimberley T-18 As climate change becomes more significant, consider shifting timing of L L L Festival & event organizers
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 58 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion selected "high summer" events to cooler times of day or times of year, and schedule events requiring snow reliability in January or February. 5.4.6 Other Local Attractions Objective: Preserve character of local tourist attractions and general mountain town feel in a changing climate Beyond the more obvious tourism vulnerabilities discussed above, the working group considered climate impacts to Kimberley’s other main attractions, like Cominco Gardens, the Mining Railway and Interpretive Centre, Kimberley Riverside Campground, and Marysville Falls. In the group’s view, with the exception of Marysville Falls (which is a natural attraction), these other attractions are well managed and will be able to identify and implement the adaptations needed to deal with warmer drier summers, more extreme weather events, and warmer, wetter winters.
Two pieces that the group identified as important to Kimberley’s attractiveness as a tourism destination that were not addressed in the vulnerabilities above were the overall aesthetics and quality of viewscapes that give Kimberley its distinct mountain town identity, and the larger picture of how the Nature Park is managed within a changing climate. Kimberley has already experienced a diminishment of its overall aesthetics and viewscapes as a result of logging near the community, which has led to some challenging, but ultimately positive outcomes as key stakeholders now appreciate the need to develop new strategies to deal with competing values around land management. However, there is still much work to do on this front given that the current regulatory framework for logging is designed for industrial forestry, which remains a formidable obstacle to developing alternative approaches.
Kimberley’s Nature Park also stands to benefit from considerable scientific research and knowledge that is developing around the management of parks and protected areas in the Canadian and US Rockies in the face of climate change, and may wish to incorporate some of the emerging ideas and strategies into its management plan as time goes on. Table 29: Recommendations for Other Local Attractions ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion T-21 Protect integrity of existing trails and viewscapes from unnecessary damage by logging and interface forest fuel treatment. M H M+ City T-22 Learn from climate adaptation management plans being developed for parks and protected areas in the Canadian and U.S. Rockies to guide management of Kimberley's Nature Park, balancing the need between interface forest fuel treatment prescriptions L H M Kimberley Nature Park
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 59 ID Action Threat Reduction Urgency Priority Lead/Champion and the special status of the Park as a popular natural area and tourist attraction. 5.5 Learning Reflections 1. Kimberley’s objective in this process was to create a foundation for on-going climate adaptation planning in the community. Accordingly the “net” was cast widely to identify the broad suite of issues and vulnerabilities Kimberley will be facing as a consequence of climate change. In selecting issues that reflected priorities in the natural environment, built environment and socio-economic environment, underlying connections and synergies between different issues became more apparent. 2. Existing vulnerability and risk assessment templates for climate adaptation planning can be quite detailed and complex, which is not necessarily the best fit for a community adaptation process that is largely reliant on stakeholders who are volunteers (unless there are very specific issues the community wants to look at in detail and with a lot of rigour, which was not the case for Kimberley). To better fit Kimberley’s process, it was necessary to simplify the templates and modify the process to better accommodate the participants. In general this approach worked well, although there is a risk of oversimplification and losing valuable nuances if terms like vulnerability, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are not well understood by the participants.
3. Different worksheets/templates were developed for each working group to facilitate their vulnerability assessment and identification of adaptive actions. This worked effectively. 4. An important item that did not get fleshed out until near the end of the working group process was a system to ascribe priority to proposed adaptive actions on an issue. In collaboration with the Steering Committee, an approach to priority setting was developed using two defined inputs: level of threat reduction and urgency of action. Combining these two inputs created the 5-level priority system that is found in the tables above (L, L+, M, M+, H).
5. The broad focus of Kimberley’s adaptation efforts means that a lot of important information and thinking has been generated among those who participated in the working group process, but it has also created challenges around effectively and efficiently documenting and processing the work/research that was done in way that is easy for participants to review. Solid information management processes are necessary for a project like this.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 60
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 61 6.0 CALP Local Climate Visioning and Scenarios The Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) is an informal group of researchers at the University of British Columbia specializing in landscape visualization, environmental perception, public land management processes and sustainable landscapes41 . CALP has been leading the development of tools and processes for visioning future climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation at the local level using 2D Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and 3D visualization techniques.
CALP’s climate visioning process, which uses “virtual reality" techniques based on digital mapping and scientific data, is aimed at enhancing community engagement, social learning and policy-change processes around long-term climate change at the local level. Previous CALP research suggests that these tools can rapidly enhance awareness of climate change and response options42 . In the spring of 2008, CALP identified the Columbia Basin as an ideal place to test and modify its local climate visioning tools in a smaller, more rural venue outside of the Lower Mainland area. CALP, with the Columbia Basin Trust, determined that the Kimberley Climate Adaptation Project offered an excellent opportunity for collaboration with a local community and their climate change process. Kimberley typifies smaller BC communities that need to plan for a range of climate change-related impacts and issues (eg. reduced snowpack, increased spring flooding and forest fire risk, and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to amenity migration and development pressures) and that do not necessarily have the resources, information and tools to readily mainstream climate adaptation and mitigation into local land use planning.
CALP’s project had two main purposes: 1. Application and adaptation of innovative visioning methods developed for climate change planning in Kimberley, and 2. Development of a regional template for a GIS-based participatory climate visioning process that is transferrable to other communities in the Columbia Basin and other parts of BC and housed at Selkirk College. The goal was to spatialize, localize, and visualize climate change effects at a neighbourhood or community level, based on regional climate modeling, scientific advice, and local stakeholder involvement. The CALP component of the Kimberley Climate Adaptation project was a pilot case supported by the City of Kimberley with funding from the Ministry of Community Development--Smart Partnership Program and the Real Estate Foundation of British Columbia. Additional in-kind support for CALP’s involvement was provided by the Columbia Basin Trust and Selkirk College, with project-specific climate modeling from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) and input from the CBT Climate Advisory Committee, particularly Dr. Stewart Cohen.
With the input of City council, CALP’s team of experts worked with Kimberley project steering committee members, working group experts, City consultants, provincial and federal researchers, and City staff to develop an understanding of Kimberley as a community and related climate change issues and priorities. 41 http://www.calp.forestry.ubc.ca/ 42 Sheppard, S.R.J. 2008. Local climate change visioning: A new process for community planning & outreach using visualization tools. Canadian Institute of Planners. Plan Canada Vol. 48 (1): 36-40
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 62 Local and regional data, information, climate research, local stakeholder views, available mapping and visuals were gathered in order to develop visualizations of Kimberley’s current conditions, climate impacts for the City of Kimberley, and two future scenarios. The CALP project team experimented with different software and visualization techniques, exploring a range of options to produce compelling visuals, enable the opportunity to show change over time, and try out “virtual touring.” Post-doctoral researcher Olaf Schroth, with funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation, also involved the open source community developing the virtual globe Biosphere3D to provide in-kind 3D tree modeling specifically for the Kimberley project, enabling CALP to test new open-source software for landscape and vegetation rendering.
Given the successful pilot, plans are now underway for the visualization models and a template for conducting a local climate change visioning process to be made available for application by other local governments. CALP has also commenced work with Selkirk College to share knowledge and information about visualization techniques, software, and required data resources, and to enhance their current suite of geo-spatial tools to encompass local climate change visualization. 6.1 Data and Resource Review and Development The CALP project team initiated the pilot by gathering background information and resources, including Kimberley’s Official Community Plan, zoning bylaws, and other relevant planning and land use and related resources and references. The team also gathered all relevant 2D data, converting much of the City’s CAD data to GIS. High resolution aerial photos of the town and surrounding area were obtained from Teck Cominco, and provincial aerials for the larger region were gathered from Selkirk College. The team was able to download additional data resources from provincial GIS databases including VRI (Vegetation Resources Inventory such as forest stands), TRIM (roads, rail lines, contours, etc.), and community watershed boundaries. Finally, the team obtained GIS data and resource information from various local experts including the City’s fire consultant (Bob Gray) and local provincial foresters working on the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic through contacts in the Working Groups.
As data resource availability developed, the team began 2D data integration and analysis to produce GIS-based land-use maps, as well as a “figure-ground” or map of all the building footprints in Kimberley today. The team used Community Viz to develop buildout scenarios based on current development plans, and conducted an analysis of common sustainability indicators including identification of “400 metre radius” around services in Kimberley to exhibit the community’s “walkability.” Throughout the course of the project, the CALP team worked closely with PCIC’s climate scientists who developed the technical climate change data, particularly snowpack extent, for Kimberley. Kimberley’s downscaled climate modeling by PCIC for snowpack extent is a first for British Columbia. CALP provided the digital elevation model data for the snowpack modeling, and converted the PCIC model outputs into GIS-based maps – work which will continue with Selkirk College through 2009.
Examples of the 2D mapping are shown on the following pages.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 63 Figure 10: Kimberley Land Use Map This Kimberley land use map is an example of the preliminary GIS mapping done by CALP using CAD- converted City data.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 64 Figure 11: Example of 2D Mapping showing Walkability Each building in Kimberley was drawn in GIS by the CALP team, as shown by the black building footprints. GIS analysis included sustainability indicators such as "walking circles" which show how walkable a community is. Kimberley has almost 50% of its residences within 400m of a food store, with over 65% of its current residences within 600m.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 65 Figure 12: 2D GIS map using Community Viz to show current and potential buildout This buildout is based on City data, as well as Master Plans for developments, where applicable. Planning for climate change adaptation needs to consider both current City form and how the City’s future form may affect or be influenced by the types of development currently under consideration.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 66 The 2D GIS data served as key baseline information for the development of two future scenarios: Kimberley Adapts and a Low Carbon Kimberley. The scenarios, which cover both adaptation and climate change mitigation, were developed to facilitate community level discussions on possible futures and options for the City of Kimberley. The global context for the scenarios is: 1. Kimberley Adapts – a world where fossil-fuel based energy use continues in a “business-as-usual” manner and local management of climate change is limited to adaptation efforts. Climate is not stabilized and adaptation planning for on-going and more extreme impacts continues into the foreseeable future and beyond.
2. Low-Carbon Kimberley – a world where policy and commitment to climate change mitigation is such that local (and higher level) planning urgently and sharply minimizes greenhouse gas emissions and stabilizes climate such that the more extreme climate change impacts are avoided by the mid to late 21st century. 6.2 Using Scenarios to Inform Visioning and Planning Scenario planning is a method used to explore alternative futures by examining the nature and possible range of impacts of important driving forces affecting our world. It is often a group process that encourages knowledge exchange and understanding of key issues important to the future of a defined entity: a local community in this instance. It works on the basis of crafting a number of plausible scenarios (or stories) that “book-end” a range of futures by extrapolating uncertain yet influencing trends and driving forces. Narrative scenarios capture increasing complexity in poorly-understood systems, handling significant issues driven by values, cultural shifts, and institutions. Scenarios include “what-if” analyses, backcasting, and forecasting. “What-if” analyses examine the implications of different assumptions and what surprises might occur; backcasting assesses the feasibility of desirable futures and the implications of longterm risks; and forecasting offers a “bandwidth of initial trajectories and allowable actions” – how socio-ecological or economic trends may work out in the short-term43 .
Kimberley’s scenarios were developed by CALP over the period of several months in an iterative process that involved local Steering Committee members, City staff, councilors, as well as several other community stakeholders in the latter stages. Each of the scenarios considered the interactions of the following factors at both a global and local level out to 2100: • Levels of greenhouse gas emissions • Predicted climate impacts based on greenhouse gas emissions measures • Population trends, including climate-related migration • Energy use • Economy • Land Use • Transportation • Food Security 43 Swart, R.J., J.Robinson and P. Raskin. “The Problem of the Future: sustainability science and scenario analysis.” Global Environmental Change 14, 2004: 137-146; and Shaw, A., S.R.J. Sheppard, S.Burch, D. Flanders, A. Wiek, J. Carmichael, J. Robinson, and S. Cohen. 2009. “Making futures tangible: Synthesizing, downscaling, and visualizing climate change scenarios for participatory capacity building.” Global Environmental Change. Accepted April 2009. ___
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 67 • Ecosystems and Water • Governance and Policy The two scenarios that were developed out of this process are used to illustrate “extremes”, understanding that a range of possible options and pathways lie between them44 , including pathways with synergies between adaptation and mitigation options. Brief localized descriptions are included here: Kimberley Adapts This scenario is based on a high energy use, fossil fuel-based economy which continues current development pathways, including a full build-out of Kimberley’s current and proposed land use development plans. Climate change impacts are at the extreme end and considerable adaptation is required, with an emphasis on flood and forest fire protection. Landscape-scale fuel management continues within the City’s boundaries, while fuel management beyond the City’s boundaries is also implemented. The working groups’ findings and most of their recommendations fit within this scenario.
Low-Carbon Kimberley This scenario is based on sharply reduced greenhouse gas emissions and energy usage. A move to renewable energy includes solar thermal for hot water, and local biomass energy that helps to drive the local economy. Other elements include a steadystate local population with the capacity to double if necessary (depending on the number of “climate refugees” or climate migrants), electric vehicle and rail-based transportation, and development patterns based on rebuild and infill within the existing walkable nodes in Kimberley. Alternative green building technologies such as strawbale housing (fire resistant and thus an adaptation as well) are implemented. Local food production (regional) is greatly enhanced. The working group recommendation to pursue local energy planning fits within this scenario.
44 Carbon emissions were one indicator used to distinguish the scenarios. Preliminary carbon emissions for the current City of Kimberley and the full buildout pathway (Kimberley Adapts) were initially calculated using a spatial methodology in order to assess the potential GHG implications of current development plans, barring any GHG mitigation actions. The spatial methodology differs from the method used by the province’s Community Energy and Emissions Inventory as the spatial method allows for calculation of emissions from future development plans. The carbon emissions numbers in the CALP posters used a combination of the CEEI material and the CALP projections to give preliminary assessments of potential emissions under a business-as-usual energy and development scenario.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 68 Figure 13: Existing Residential Locations within Services Figure 13 provides an example of the data generated by GIS analysis, including development of the low-carbon scenarios. Feedback at a working group session meant that final posters only used stats on existing groceries, rather than all existing services. “Wildcards” The scenarios working group team identified several significant “wildcards” representing future factors with high uncertainty in terms of probability and timing, “but a likely high impact”45 . Wildcards are an instrument to compare different scenarios by testing how resilient they are with regard to unforeseen events. The main wildcards for Kimberley vis-à-vis planning for climate change are: 1) Peak oil and consequent impacts on the price of energy and economy, as well as on transportation and second home owners, and the current globalized food system.
2) Climate refugees and the extent to which the Kootenays become a destination for people leaving areas with more severe climate impacts. 3) Economic drivers and the extent to which current globalization or future localization will influence Kimberley’s economy, and how Alberta’s economic fortunes will impact tourism and recreational property investment in the area. While the wildcards discussion did not produce specific recommendations, consideration of these and other wildcards in future planning exercises in Kimberley is recommended to ensure robust planning that has considered possible “extreme” future situations.
45 BIPE Conseil et al. 1992: Wild Cards: A multinational perspective.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 69 6.3 Visualization Development After the future scenarios had been developed, reviewed and refined, the project team began exploring 3D visualization of existing conditions, climate change related impacts, and adaptations identified in key theme areas—forests, water, tourism, etc.— by Kimberley’s Climate Change Adaptation working groups. This preliminary 3D visualization imagery was prepared with widely-used software such as Community Viz, Google Earth, and Sketchup, with additional highly realistic vegetation visualizations from the Beta-testing open- source software Biosphere 3D. The preliminary mapping, analysis, and visualizations were reviewed by local stakeholders and residents in a “Big Viz” workshop held in March 2009. The comments received at this workshop informed the subsequent stages of the 3D visualization work, including the prioritization of climate change related impacts and adaptations for visualization—fire, flooding and snowpack— as well as the refinement of Kimberley build- out plan.
Examples of the 3D visualizations are provided below. Figure 14: Mountain Pine Beetle Susceptibility For Figure 14, GIS mapping was moved into a virtual globe to enable 3D interactive visualizations. In this case, current Mountain Pine Beetle susceptibility was mapped for the forests surrounding Kimberley. The dark orange show high susceptibility, while the light orange shows medium susceptibility. The green areas are low or very low susceptibility. Susceptibility is based on the amount of pine in the stand, the age of the pine, the density of the stand, and the stand’s location (Shore and Safranyik 1992, updated by ILMB 2007); GIS data supplied by Art Stock, Entomologist, BC Forest Service.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 70 Figure 15: Flood Mapping Based on 1999 Flood Risk Assessment Study The 1999 flood mapping information was digitized in GIS, and moved into the virtual globe. Layering allows the Mountain Pine Beetle susceptibility to be visible at the same time, drawing attention to the potential deforestation risks in the watershed (and thus downstream flooding risks). Each house in Kimberley is represented by a 3D icon, while the commercial and institutional buildings are represented by 3D gray boxes. Figure 16: Historic Wildfires Around Kimberley Historic fire maps, available as GIS data from Bob Gray, were put into GoogleEarth as part of the “virtual tour”.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 71 Figure 17: Beyond 2100 – Looking north into the Mark Creek watershed For Figure 17, Biosphere 3D, an open-source software under development in Germany, was used to generate realistic renderings of possible future forest scenes: this scene shows fire damage, species changes, and the return of pests and diseases. Biosphere 3D developers modeled BC-based trees, including those under red and grey attack, for the Kimberley project (courtesy of Olaf Schroth with thanks to Philip Paar, Jan Walter Schliep and Steffen Ernst).
Figure 18: Low Carbon Infill Visualization for Downtown Area of Kimberley Figure 18 shows possible low-carbon (passive solar, district heat connected) infill buildings developed in Sketchup, a 3D building modeling tool. Here the infill development and the Green Infrastructure work together to add a mix of housing styles (duplex rowhouses, mixed-use residential over commercial) into the downtown area of Kimberley. The grey buildings to the right are existing Platzl buildings. 6.4 Project Outcomes and Visioning Tools CALP produced a series of 2D technical posters giving the background for the visualizations along with the data sources; a preliminary downtown Sketchup model with adaptations and infill development; a
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 72 Biosphere 3D model of the forest stands around Kimberley to illustrate potential fire, mountain pine beetle, and species change possibilities; and an interactive Google Earth visualization, all of which help to build an overall narrative around Kimberley’s climate issues and opportunities for adaptation. Lastly, CALP also produced a conceptual landscape architecture plan for the City with adaptation (Green Infrastructure) and mitigation (Infill Development) options for the downtown area. All of these materials were presented to the community at a workshop and open house in June, 2009. An example of the mountain pine beetle poster is included in Appendix 2.
The main focus areas for the visioning tools were: • Baseline of Kimberley now, showing land use patterns and GHG emissions • Kimberley at full build out given current development plans, with possible GHG emissions • Mountain Pine Beetle susceptibility mapping for the area around Kimberley, with 3D viz of possible future outcomes depending on chosen adaptations to the current epidemic • Wildfire Risk showing location of historic wildfires and predicted susceptibility to fire risk based on current forest composition, as well as the potential fire season extension under a high emissions climate change scenario • Snowpack depth for April 1st, which was limited to preliminary, uncalibrated modeling for the local area including the Mark and Matthew Creek watersheds • Flood risks associated with Mark Creek • Scenario 1: Kimberley Adapts —using Green Infrastructure to meet multiple working group recommendations for Kimberley’s Platzl area • Scenario 2: Low-Carbon Kimberley options • A “Green Ribbon Vision” for Kimberley integrating low-carbon and adaptation options into a resilient community (shown below). The Green Ribbon is a synthesis of both Kimberley Adapts, and the Low-Carbon Kimberley scenarios, with a future vision for the City. Most of the CALP material was integrated into a Google Earth (virtual globe) platform, and presented as a “virtual tour” of Kimberley at the June Community Open House. The database set includes a 3D model of the town with all of the current houses and public/institutional buildings. Development plans are shown in “4D” -- they include a time-phased buildout sequence that can be viewed with a time slider in GoogleEarth. Fire mapping - including the FarSite fire model from Bob Gray, the City’s fire consultant - shows time sequences in hours for a potential fire threat, while current MPB susceptibility for each forest stand is shown for the region. As the snowpack data, generated pro-bono by PCIC using experimental new-to-BC modeling tools, is currently uncalibrated to local conditions, it was shown only in 2D GIS mapping. Flood risk areas, and a possible adaptation plan for the City of Kimberley were included in the virtual tour. Finally, a few low-carbon options from the Low-Carbon scenario – such as the potential express bus route or light rail stops for a line to Cranbrook, as well as the solar farm location, were also included in the virtual tour. The Low-Carbon poster presented additional transportation, renewable energy, and land use planning options, as shown in Appendix 2. Lastly, the “Green Ribbon Vision” was presented as a potential integration of low-carbon and adaptation options – and as a way to continue conversations among residents, Councilors, staff, and others about opportunities to draw on current amenities and strengths to continue building a great future for the City of Kimberley.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 73 Figure 19: Green Ribbon Vision for Low Carbon Kimberley Figure 19 illustrates the Green Ribbon Vision for a resilient, low-carbon Kimberley, proposing the following elements for discussion: infill development pays for the Green Infrastructure, adds more housing than removed for creek re-naturalization, and enables enough density for district heat. With low-carbon, renewable energy housing, and supported public transit connections to Cranbrook, Kimberley builds a vibrant small city core that is resilient to climate change impacts and “wildcard” scenarios such as peak oil, and has amenities for everyone.
6.5 Key Learnings: • data gathering requires considerable time and multiple data sources in order to produce a credible depth of GIS mapping • collaboration between CALP and the working groups was fruitful in connecting the CALP team with local experts and better local and regional data on current conditions and impacts such as fire and mountain pine beetle • working group recommendations were critical in developing the integrated visions and responses shown in the CALP material such as the adaptation planning for Kimberley’s downtown • localized climate modeling is still under development, and more committed funding is needed to continue snowpack modeling and calibration so that 3D snowpack visualizations can be generated
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 74 • next-step projects could work on integrating fuel management options with mountain pine beetle responses and biomass-fuel production in order to plan and visualize integrated landscape responses • joint planning across jurisdictions (Municipal, Crown Land) may enhance community adaptation options • preliminary responses (prior to tabulating the research questionnaires) shows that using time sliders and layers in 3D virtual models enhances public understanding of risks such as forest fire threats to the City and could be useful in further education about the need for a Fire Smart Kimberley, and other adaptation options (further evaluations using the pre and post Open House questionnaires will be made available in the CALP report to the Ministry of Community Development) • real opportunities exist for synergies across adaptation and mitigation • climate change adaptation provides an opportunity to explore and plan for a future, resilient community that protects and builds on current assets 6.6 Future Collaborations The GIS data, posters and related digital images are being made available to the City of Kimberley staff for future city use. CALP, in collaboration with Selkirk College, will be experimenting with hosting a simplified virtual tour online, for public download and use. CALP will be producing a report for the Ministry of Community Development on the Visioning Process for Small Communities, which will cover the methods used, and research findings, in more detail, available later in 2009. Opportunities for continuing CALP collaboration with the City of Kimberley, whose Mayor, Councilors, staff and residents have demonstrated a strong commitment to climate change and progressive City planning, will be explored. 6.7 Recommendations from Scenarios Working Group There are various proposed actions that either relate to the scenarios work or were noted over the course of the project and did not easily fit with the other vulnerabilities. These are captured in the table below. Table 30: Recommendations from the Scenarios Group and Other Issue Action # Recommended Actions Priority Lead/Champion Other Key Stakeholders Food Security S-1 Identify options & measures to promote local food security M Undetermined Community Garden committee, Wildsight, City Google Earth visualizations S-4 Introduce Selkirk High School teachers to the on-line Google Earth visualization technology for Kimberley and identify key curriculum connections M Wildsight Selkirk High School, CALP, Columbia Basin Trust Transportation S-5 Continue with efforts to maintain, enhance transit within Kimberley and between Kimberley/Cranbrook M City Interior Health, BC Transit, City of Cranbrook, Wildsight, Chamber of Commerce, Tourism Kimberley
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 75 Issue Action # Recommended Actions Priority Lead/Champion Other Key Stakeholders S-6 Recognize long term possibility of reclaiming the Rails to Trails route for a light rail line L City S-7 Right-size fleet and day to day use of City vehicles. Consider use of electric scooters or vehicles for 3-season in-town use. M City Integration with Kimberley Carbon Neutral Strategy S-8 Identify, promote synergies with climate adaptation recommendations/actions, and form a climate committee to continue advising and championing this work to the community M City Stakeholders on City’s climate committee Green Building S-9 Encourage new developments to be as energy and water efficient as possible M+ City Ministry of Community Development Land Use Planning S-10 As part of OCP renewal, look at tools to encourage density changes that would enhance land use within current building footprint M City S-11 Engage in a Kimberley character study that identifies neighbourhoods and “character zones” in order to pursue in- character infill development and to ensure that new developments are also “in character” L+ City Solar Energy S-12 Encourage solar power development at both residential and commercial level, including solar hot water and passive solar systems M City Solar BC, Wildsight, local solar businesses S-13 Consider phased conversion to solar powered golf carts L+ Golf courses
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 76
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 77 7.0 Putting it All Together: The Way Ahead for Kimberley The City of Kimberley’s four goals in undertaking this project were facilitating community learning on how climate change may impact Kimberley, identifying priority risks and sensitivities for further investigation by experts and local stakeholders, developing a climate adaptation report and recommendations for the City of Kimberley, and supporting Basin-wide learning and knowledge sharing on planning for climate adaptation. All of these goals were effectively achieved and the results of all the participants’ and partners’ efforts are documented in this report.
Summary of Project Outcomes As a result of the climate change adaptation project and the City’s more recent efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions inventories and mitigation planning, a solid foundation has now been created for Kimberley to continue its efforts on both climate change adaptation and mitigation, with the overall goal of building a community that is more informed, responsive and resilient to future impacts, trends or events associated with climate change. A short list of this project outcomes include: • Increased local knowledge and capacity on climate change adaptation planning within City of Kimberley and community • Partnerships and relationships with a wide network of climate change scientists, experts and planners in BC • Collection of considerable amount of data, research and studies on different aspects of climate change impacts and adaptation that is applicable to this area • Digitization of considerable spatial and technical data in GIS, which will support City of Kimberley in expanding its information and mapping systems to include GIS-based material • Identification of three priority adaptation issues and 18 areas of vulnerability for the community. • Approximately 100 recommendations for local climate adaptation planning • Visioning material and scenarios to support conversations around Kimberley’s future opportunities and challenges vis-à-vis climate change • Tools and processes for continuing the work • Interest among some of the project partners to undertake additional climate adaptation work in Kimberley 7.1 Next Steps Communicating the Issues, Findings and Actions to Residents One of the major realizations on completing this project is that this is just the beginning of work on an issue that will be part of the landscape for years, if not decades to come. Continuing efforts to innovatively communicate the science, issues and preferred actions to Kimberley residents and stakeholders will be a key part of moving forward.
In addition to awareness-building actions identified in the project’s recommendations, some of the immediate initiatives under consideration include creation of utility inserts to communicate the issue of local climate change and simple adaptive actions that residents can undertake, use of empty storefront space to display some of CALP’s posters addressing Kimberley’s priority issues and opportunities for
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 78 adaptation planning, and formation of a local climate action committee to work with the City as it moves ahead with its climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. Action Planning, Monitoring and Reporting Progress The project’s findings and recommendations will be formally presented to City Council and staff in late summer 2009. Next steps for the City of Kimberley will entail creating a process to review, adopt and channel the project’s recommendations to appropriate leads or champions, monitor progress on implementation, and report back to local residents as well as the CBT in 2010 and at future agreed intervals. CBT is working on a simple monitoring framework for its first two pilot communities (Kimberley and Elkford) to assist in that process.
CBT’s Communities Adapting to Climate Change – Phase 2 As CBT enters the second round of its Communities Adapting to Climate Change initiative, there will be a number of opportunities for Kimberley to share its experience with the next group of communities undertaking the process. A region-wide workshop is planned for fall 2009, which will serve the dual purpose of reporting the experiences of the first round of the initiative and creating an opportunity for second round communities and other interested local governments to learn and share on climate adaptation planning as they begin the process. Kimberley will also participate on the initiative’s Learning Network and Technical Advisory Committee.
Possibilities for Further Work on Climate Adaptation As a result of all the local ground work, data gathering and capacity building that was done in 2008-09, Kimberley is well positioned and open to hosting additional partnered projects on specific climate impacts research and adaptation planning where there is a good fit with local issues and planning objectives. 7.2 Learning Reflections • Kimberley’s project enabled a broad screening of community vulnerabilities and has created a solid foundation for future research, study, action and innovation.
• One of the unique aspects of engaging in a community-level climate adaptation planning process, as distinct from more conventional planning processes, is its emphasis on a longer term, intergenerational approach to planning for the future with a focus on creating resilience in all systems: natural, built and socio-economic. • Kimberley’s project was vast in the amount of ground it covered and generated a large number of recommendations. This can make it challenging for someone new to the project to grasp the scope and breadth of the effort.
• Partnerships were key to the project’s success. CALP’s climate visioning work was enormously helpful in engaging and communicating residents and stakeholders, PCIC’s climate analysis provided important direction to the local discussions, CBT’s support was invaluable in terms of funding, facilitating communication with its expert Advisory Committee and providing higher level coordination of the pilot, and the communication and exchange of ideas with the District of Elkford’s climate adaptation team enabled some process “potholes” to be avoided. • The high level of engagement and support from key City staff and councilors helped keep the project on track.
• The focus on community learning and engagement resulted in good community awareness of the project, with new faces appearing at each event.
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 79 APPENDICES Available on request: 1. Table of Recommendations with Narrative 2. CALP Visualizations: Low Carbon Kimberley and Mountain Pine Beetle 3. Workshop Proceedings from June ’08, Fall ’08 & June ‘09 4. Community Survey Form & Results 5. Sample Worksheets for Vulnerability Assessments
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 80 Appendix 1: Table of Recommendations with Narratives
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 81 APPENDIX 2: CALP Visualizations for Low Carbon Kimberley and Mountain Pine Beetle
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 82 APPENDIX 3: Workshop Proceedings for June ’08, Fall ’08 and June ‘09
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 83 APPENDIX 4: Community Survey Form & Complete Results
Adapting to Climate Change in Kimberley 84 APPENDIX 5: Sample Worksheets for Vulnerability Assessments