African Markets Revealed - September 2017 - Stanbic IBTC

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African Markets Revealed - September 2017 - Stanbic IBTC
African Markets Revealed
September 2017

                           Penny Byrne
                           Walter de Wet
                           Michael Kafe
                           Phumelele Mbiyo
                           Ayomide Mejabi
                           Fausio Mussa
                           Jibran Qureishi
                           Dmitry Shishkin

                           www.standardbank.com/research
Standard Bank   African Markets Revealed
                September 2017

                Durant Basi Sihlali (1935-2004): Rhini Walls No 12

                Durant Sihlali was born on the 5th of March 1935 in Germiston on the outskirts of Johannesburg,
                South Africa. As a young child he spent time with his grandparents in rural Eastern Cape where he
                was exposed to traditional Xhosa wall murals. Durant returned to Johannesburg and trained in
                Chiawelo under Alphius Kubeka from 1950-1953. Later he emerged as a professional artist from
                the famous Polly Street Academy, having worked alongside famous artists such as Carlo Sdoya,
                Sydney Goldblatt, Ephraim Ngatane, Louis Maqhubela and Cecil Skotness. From 1983 to 1988 he
                was head of Fine Art at the Federated Union of Black Artists (FUBA).

                In 1982 Sihlai was introduced to papermaking and worked in this medium for the latter part of his
                career. From this time on his work became more abstract and included themes of graffiti and the
                wall designs he had been exposed to as a child.

                Source: Standard Bank Corporate Art Collection
Standard Bank         African Markets Revealed
                      September 2017

                      Contents
                4     African markets: Mind the BOP
                27    Angola: likely lower growth for longer
                33    Botswana: moderate growth
                39    Côte d’Ivoire: markets underestimating political risks
                45    DRC: mining rebounds despite politics
                51    Egypt: looking up
                57    Ethiopia: recovery underway after the drought
                63    Ghana: managing IMF conditionality
                69    Kenya: back to the ballot as new elections are called
                75    Malawi: cautiously optimistic
                81    Mauritius: still plodding along
                87    Morocco: the road to recovery
                93    Mozambique: uncertainty dominates
                99    Namibia: rebound ahead
                105 Nigeria: benefitting from improved oil revenues
                111 Rwanda: receding investment spending slows growth
                117 Senegal: relatively stable political situation
                123 South Africa: growth is far too low
                129 Tanzania: enthusiasm ebbing
                135 Tunisia: a long and winding road
                141 Uganda: growth looks more promising
                147 Zambia: growth ever looking up
                153 Glossary

                      This material is "non-independent research". Non-independent research is a
                      "marketing communication" as defined in the UK FCA Handbook. It has not been
                      prepared in accordance with the full legal requirements designed to promote
                      independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of
                      the dissemination of investment research.
Standard Bank                                          African Markets Revealed
                                                       September 2017

                                                                                                                                                               Uganda
Uganda: growth looks more promising
GDP growth: recovering                                                 GDP by expenditure
                                                                                12.0
We upgrade our GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 4.5% y/y,
                                                                                10.0
from 4.2% y/y. Following a tight monetary policy stance in
2015, private sector credit (PSC) growth fell sharply, declining to               8.0

1.6% y/y in Aug 16, from a 2015 high of 25.3% y/y in Sep 16.                      6.0
PSC growth has since then recovered to an average of 5.9% y/y                     4.0

                                                                            %
in H1:17, aided by the looser monetary policy stance by the BOU                   2.0
since Apr-16.
                                                                                  0.0
                                                                                -2.0
GDP growth expanded by 3.9% y/y in Q1:17, from 2.0% y/y in
Q4:16, mainly due to a strong performance from the services                     -4.0

sector which expanded by 6.0% y/y from 3.3% y/y during the                      -6.0
                                                                                            2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f
same period. Interestingly, the accommodation and food sub-
sector (tourism) grew by an impressive 16.3% y/y in Q1:17,                                    PCE                     GCE                    GFCF
which was the strongest reading since it registered 20.6% y/y                                 Stocks                  Netex                  GDP
growth in Q3:11. The tourism sector in Uganda is
underperforming relative to its potential, and reforms to boost        Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Standard Bank Research

output from tourism are likely to be one of the key priorities of
the government over the medium term due to the potential                 GDP by sector (%) contribution
multiplier effects. In addition to increased global marketing of                                                            2008     2010      2014    2016
                                                                         Agriculture, forestry & fishing                     27.1     25.2      22.5    21.1
Uganda’s tourism services, the country has capitalized on                Mining & quarrying                                   1.2      1.2       1.4     1.5
neighbouring Rwanda’s recent decision to hike permit fees for            Manufacturing                                        8.7      5.6       7.8     7.9
                                                                         Construction                                         5.5      5.6       6.5     6.6
mountain-gorilla trekking.                                               Trade & repairs                                     13.3     12.9      11.6     11
                                                                         Transport & storage                                  2.6      2.6       2.8     2.8
                                                                         Accommodation & food service                         2.1      2.2       2.4     2.4
It is evident that poor weather conditions weighed down on               Information & communication                          4.2      6.3       8.3     9.2
agricultural output in H1:17, a theme consistent across the East         Financial & insurance                                2.4      2.4       2.8     2.8
Africa region. However, it is also important to highlight that           Real estate activities                               5.5      5.2       5.3     5.5
                                                                         Public administration                                2.8      3.1         3     3.3
growth in the agricultural sub-sector contracted by an average of        Education                                            5.3      5.0       5.4     5.7
1.0% y/y in the 9-m to Sep 16, even before the short rains,              Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics

which were depressed, commenced in Q4:16. These
developments are perhaps a cue for the government to intensify
reforms in the agricultural sector in order to foster sustainable
economic growth.

Moreover, following the long rains season between Mar and May,
the agricultural sector could recover somewhat in H2:17;
however, the invasion of armyworms could still lead to a relatively
weaker food crop in Q4:17.                                             Stanbic Bank PMI
                                                                         58.0
Also, with public investment in infrastructure spend likely to
increase meaningfully over the next couple of years, GFCF is             56.0
likely to rise. The government of Uganda has finally agreed on
the construction terms of the oil pipeline from Tanga, Tanzania,         54.0
which is thus likely to encourage energy firms to make a final
investment decision by Q1:18.                                            52.0

                                                                         50.0
Better weather conditions, increased public investment in
infrastructure and improving PSC should underpin economic                48.0
activity, and thus we see GDP growth expanding by 5.6% y/y in
2018.                                                                    46.0
                                                                                Jun-16          Sep-16         Dec-16          Mar-17        Jun-17

                                                                                                                    PMI

                                                                       Source: IHS Markit

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Standard Bank                                                               African Markets Revealed
                                                                            September 2017

Quarterly indicators

                                                                                                                                                                                       Uganda
                                              Q1:16   Q2:16       Q3:16       Q4:16      Q1:17    Q2:17e      Q3:17f        Q4:17f        Q1:18f   Q2:18f     Q3:18f         Q4:18f
                                                                                                                                                                                                 5.4
GDP (% y/y) pa                                  4.1       2.9         1.2         2.0      3.9         4.2        4.5           5.2          5.4      5.7           5.5         5.9

                                                                                                                                                                                                 4.2
CPI (% y/y) pe                                  6.2       5.9         4.2         5.7      6.4         6.5        5.0           4.0          4.2      3.1           4.8         5.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                15.1
M3 (% y/y) pe                                  10.9       7.1         3.3       11.1      12.6       13.6        14.0         14.4          15.1     15.5       16.3           18.2

                                                                                                                                                                                                 3.4
FX reserves (USD bn) pe                         2.9       3.0         3.0         3.0      3.2         3.4        3.3           3.4          3.4      3.5           3.7         3.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                 4.9
Import cover (months) pe                        5.5       5.6         5.3         5.1      5.2         5.3        5.2           4.9          4.9      5.1           5.1         5.2

                                                                                                                                                                                                10.1
3-m rate (%) pe                                16.6     15.2        14.2        14.0      10.7       10.4         9.5           9.8         10.1     10.4       10.5           10.2

                                                                                                                                                                                                14.2
5-y rate (%) pe                                16.9     16.5        16.3        16.9      15.7       15.0        13.7         14.0          14.2     14.5       14.7           14.9

                                                                                                                                                                                                3730
USD/UGX pe                                    3351     3360        3425        3596      3615       3602        3615          3680         3730     3780       3840           3900

Source: Bank of Uganda; Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Bloomberg; Standard Bank Research

Notes: pa – period average; pe – period end

Political risks: dropping term limits                                                            Election results (2016)
                                                                                                 Presidential election                                      Party         % of votes
                                                                                                 Yoweri Kaguta Museveni                                     NRM                 60.6
Uganda still plans to scrap the presidential age limit, which is                                 Kizza Kifeefe Besigye                                       FDC                35.6
currently 75 years, in spite of strong resistance from opposition                                Amama Mbabazi                                               PDP                 1.3
                                                                                                 Abed Bwanika                                                                    0.9
groups as well as parts of the civil society.                                                    Legislative election                                                          Seats
                                                                                                 National Resistance Movement (NRM)                                             293
Back in 2005, parliament amended the constitution to scrap the                                   Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)                                                36
                                                                                                 Democratic Party (DP)                                                            15
two-term limit for the presidency. Also, with the ruling party the                               Uganda People's Congress (UPC)                                                    6
National Resistance Movement (NRM) still holding a significant                                   Other                                                                            76
                                                                                                 Total                                                                           426
majority in parliament, the likelihood of the presidential age                                   Source: Electoral Commission of Uganda
limit being dropped is quite high. Under the current
constitution, President Museveni, 72, will be ineligible to run in
the 2021 general elections since he will be over 75 by then.

Interestingly, under the current constitutional dispensation, it is
clear that any amendment to the said constitution through an
act of parliament must be supported by a referendum. However,
in 2005, the above requirement was ignored.

From the foregoing, it is apparent that the incumbent is
progressively consolidating power. This may displease the
international community. Human right organisations, which have
criticised the government’s treatment of opposition politicians,
may interpret the scrapping of the age limit as a means to
further popular dissent.

That said, the United Nations (UN) has lauded Uganda’s open
door policy to refugees due to an influx of refugees from nearby
war-torn regions such as South Sudan and the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC).

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Standard Bank                                          African Markets Revealed
                                                       September 2017

Balance of payments: increasing imports                                Current account developments

                                                                                                                                                    Uganda
                                                                                     2000
We retain our C/A deficit estimate for 2017 at 6.2% of GDP,
and increase our 2018 expectation to 7.5%.                                           1000

                                                                                         0
The C/A balance eased marginally to USD176.6m in Q1:17,
from USD184.4m in Q4:16, and an average of USD312m in                                -1000

                                                                             USD m
H2:16. However, available data shows that the trade balance
                                                                                     -2000
widened to USD362.7m in Q2:17, from USD296.5m in the
previous quarter, largely due to a rise in total imports of goods                    -3000
and services which grew by 13.9% q/q.
                                                                                     -4000

Import demand mainly associated with capital expenditure is                          -5000
                                                                                             2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f
likely to increase over the coming years, and is thus likely to
widen the C/A deficit. On the other hand, household imports                                   Trade                 Services            Income
could also rise as PSC growth and economic activity gathers                                   Transfers             C/A
pace in FY2017/18.
                                                                       Source: Bank of Uganda; Standard Bank Research
Despite, Uganda’s regional trading partners facing significant
political risks in 2017, exports grew by 11.1% q/q in Q2:17.
Notably, exports to Kenya, which is one of Uganda’s largest
trading partners in the COMESA, rose to USD137.0m in Q2:17,            FX reserves (USD bn)
from USD57.3m in Q1:17. In fact, should political risk persist in
Kenya, Uganda’s exports would inevitably decline in H2:17.               3.55

                                                                         3.45
Whereas foreign portfolio investment is likely to subside over
                                                                         3.35
the coming year, we suspect that direct investment will probably
increase owing to the investment spending related to the oil             3.25
sector. Furthermore, improving tourism earnings should also              3.15
continue to support service exports. We therefore see FX
                                                                         3.05
reserves rising to USD3.4bn (4.9 months of import cover) at the
end of 2017, and then USD3.8bn at the end of 2018.                       2.95

                                                                         2.85

                                                                         2.75

                                                                         2.65
                                                                             Jan-15           Jun-15      Nov-15     Apr-16    Sep-16      Feb-17

                                                                       Source: Bank of Uganda

FX outlook: bias for a gradual weakness                                USD/UGX: forwards versus forecasts
                                                                                     4 300
We now expect the USD/UGX to trade within a range of 3680-
3700, from our previous expectation of 3800-3850. A slow
recovery in corporate USD demand, and a softer USD globally,                         3 800
supported the UGX in H1:17. Furthermore, the value of coffee
exports also rose by 71.1% y/y as at Jun 17. That said, the                          3 300
                                                                         USD/UGX

easing of the BOU’s monetary policy stance is likely to stimulate
PSC growth and import demand in FY2017/18, and thus begin
                                                                                     2 800
to present upside risks to the USD/UGX. Additionally, while
portfolio investment is probably going to ease over the coming
year, this is likely to be counterbalanced by an increase in FDI                     2 300

inflows, primarily in H2:18, once a final investment decision on
Uganda’s recoverable oil reserves has been made. Therefore,                          1 800
even though we see improved economic activity driving the                                Aug-12        Dec-13      May-15      Sep-16      Feb-18

USD/UGX higher in 2018, the move is likely to be very gradual                                  History             Forwards             Forecast
due to the availability of adequate financing for the C/A deficit.
                                                                       Source: Bloomberg; Standard Bank Research

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Standard Bank                                            African Markets Revealed
                                                         September 2017

Monetary policy: neutral, with an easing bias                            Inflation and interest rates

                                                                                                                                                                Uganda
We expect the MPC to maintain a neutral stance with an easing                     60.0
bias over the coming year. Indeed, in view of waning inflation
                                                                                  50.0
expectations and subdued domestic demand, the MPC cut its
policy rate by a combined 200 bps in H1:17, which followed the                    40.0
cumulative 400 bps cut in 2016.                                                   30.0

                                                                         %, y/y
                                                                                  20.0
In spite of severe drought conditions earlier in the year, the
MPC remained confident that movements in headline inflation                       10.0
would remain within their preferred target range of 5%-7.5%.                         0.0
Thus, against this backdrop, the committee continued with its
                                                                                  -10.0
expansionary monetary policy stance despite headline inflation
rising to 7.3% y/y in May 17, arguing that the growth outlook                     -20.0
                                                                                      Feb-06        May-08     Aug-10     Dec-12       Mar-15     Jul-17
at the time was deteriorating. Admittedly, due to relatively weak
economic activity, the BOU could afford to cut its key                                                   Headline         Food           Core
benchmark rate amidst rising food inflation in H1:17.
                                                                         Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics
We expect headline inflation to edge lower to around 4.0% y/y
by Dec 17, and, thereafter, supported by complementary base
effects and potentially better weather conditions, it could fall
further to below 4.0% y/y by Jun 18.                                     Monetary statistics
                                                                                  50.00%
PSC growth has been recovering at a rather modest pace,
expanding by an average of 6.0% y/y in Q2:17, from 5.8% y/y                       40.00%
in Q1:17. However, business sentiment surveys are already
providing early signals of a recovery in economic activity. For                   30.00%
example, the Stanbic Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
rose to 54.1 in Aug, from a low of 47.7 in Jan 17.                                20.00%

At its meeting in Aug 17, the MPC opted to leave the CBR                          10.00%

unchanged at 10%, and further highlighted that domestic
                                                                                   0.00%
demand was starting to recover. To this effect, their own GDP
growth estimate was revised upwards to 5.5% y/y for
                                                                            -10.00%
FY2017/18, from 4.5% y/y previously. However, if the                              Jan-10                 Nov-11         Sep-13         Jul-15          May-17
recovery in PSC growth remains underwhelming given the
                                                                                                         M3 y/y                    PSC y/y
benign inflation outlook, the committee could still be tempted
to cut its policy rate further.
                                                                         Source: Bank of Uganda

Yield curve outlook: near the bottom                                     Changes in the yield curve

Indeed, the shift in the MPC’s stance to adopt a wait and see                              20.0
approach, should limit a further decline in T-bill yields.
Nonetheless, despite the heavy appetite for government debt,                               18.0
the BOU remains disciplined in only accepting bids worth what
they had initially advertised for. In the near term, the scope for                         16.0
government bond yields to fall is probably higher in comparison
                                                                                  YTM(%)

to T-bills. However, as commercial banks begin to extend more                              14.0

credit to the private sector over the next 6-m or so, the yield
                                                                                           12.0
curve is likely to start bear-flattening, with T-bills yields rising
much faster than bond yields. Further reinforcing this point is                            10.0
the slightly higher domestic borrowing target of UGX954bn in
FY2017/18, up from UGX846bn. Also, despite the funding for                                  8.0
most large ticket infrastructure projects coming from offshore,                                    91-d 182-d 364-d       2-y    3-y     5-y    10-y

in the event that disbursements of funds is delayed, the                                          31-Jan-17         06-Sep-17             6-m forecast
government is likely to increase its appetite for domestic
borrowing.                                                               Source: Bank of Uganda; Standard Bank Research

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Standard Bank                                           African Markets Revealed
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Fiscal policy: capex set to rise                                        Central government budget

                                                                                                                                                          [IInsert countryUganda
                                                                                                                                                                           here]
                                                                        % of GDP                                       FY2016/17            FY2017/18
The government’s planned fiscal deficit excluding grants is
                                                                        Total revenue (- grants)                               13.7                14.9
expected to increase to 7.2% of GDP in FY2017/18, from
4.6% in FY2016/17.                                                      Total expenditure                                      19.0                22.2

                                                                        - Wages                                                 3.8                 3.5
Development expenditure is expected to rise to UGX11,349bn,             - Interest                                              2.6                 2.7
from UGX6,490bn, while planned recurrent expenditure also               - Development expenditure                               7.2                10.1
rises to UGX11,902bn, from UGX9,902bn. However, low                     Overall balance (- grants)                             -4.6                -7.2
absorption rates mainly on development spending resulted in
                                                                        Overall balance (+ grants)                             -3.5                -5.6
the government only executing 71% of their development
                                                                        Net domestic borrowing                                  0.9                 1.0
budget. Interestingly, much of this shortfall manifested due to
delays in disbursement of concessional loans from multilateral          Net external borrowing                                  2.6                 4.6

partners that were withholding funds owing to the lethargic             Donor support (grants)                                  1.1                 1.6
execution of public investment projects.                                Source: Ministry of Finance

The FY2017/18 budget will be funded by higher domestic
borrowing of UGX954bn vs UGX846bn in FY 2016/17, and
higher external financing of UGX5,476bn vs UGX2,692bn. Net
external financing comprises concessional loans worth
UGX2,013bn and non-concessional loans of UGX3,463bn. In
fact, the significant rise in the commercial or non-concessional        Fiscal deficit incl. grants (%) of GDP
loans component in the budget is an indication of the                      0
government perhaps becoming more receptive to commercial
debt as funding pressures associated with the energy sector               -1
build up amidst low national savings.
                                                                          -2
Total tax revenue is seen rising to UGX14,686bn from
UGX12,882bn. Indeed, the growth in revenues seems quite                   -3

ambitious; however, bear in mind that the tax revenue outturn
                                                                          -4
of UGX12,882bn for FY2016/17 was still 13.6% higher than
the previous fiscal year.
                                                                          -5

Development projects such as the construction of the Standard             -6
Gauge Railway, oil pipeline from Tanga as well as hydropower
projects such as Karuma are likely to keep expenditure elevated           -7
over the medium term.                                                          FY10/11                FY12/13       FY14/15           FY16/17

                                                                        Source: Ministry of Finance

Equity market outlook: positive                                         Uganda Stock Exchange
                                                                          395
The equity market is likely to perform better over the coming
year mainly due to relatively unattractive UGX fixed income               390
valuations. Additionally, the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE)
could begin to reap the benefits of an improving equity market            385
in Kenya owing to the cross-listing of eight companies. This is
                                                                          380
likely to compliment already favourable fundamentals for the
equity market, especially in light of the lack of new listings and        375
thin trading volumes in most large counters.
                                                                          370

Furthermore, Uganda’s improving growth prospects on the back
                                                                          365
of higher investment spending in the energy sector is likely to
have multiplier effects on other parts of the economy, which              360
could continue to support the equity market.                                Oct-16           Dec-16        Feb-17     Apr-17      Jun-17        Aug-17

                                                                                                                    USE

                                                                        Source: Bloomberg

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Standard Bank                                                                African Markets Revealed
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Annual indicators

                                                                                                                                                                   Uganda
                                                                                        2012             2013         2014     2015     2016    2017f      2018f

Output

Population (million)                                                                    35.40           36.57         37.78    38.50    41.08    42.31     43.58

Nominal GDP (UGX bn)                                                                  61 373           66 764        72 660   81 688   86 555   95 310   107 110

Nominal GDP (USD bn)                                                                     24.4             25.9         27.6     24.5     25.2     26.2      28.1

GDP / capita (USD)                                                                        690              707         731      636      614      620       645

Real GDP growth (%)                                                                        3.2              4.7         4.9      5.7      2.6      4.5       5.6

Coffee production ('000 tons)                                                           195.2           209.8         216.5    221.8    226.5    229.7     235.9

Central Government Operations

Budget balance (excl. Grants) / GDP (%)                                                   -4.4            -4.9         -5.0     -5.4     -8.0     -4.6      -7.2

Budget balance (incl. Grants) / GDP (%)                                                   -2.5            -3.5         -4.0     -4.2     -6.6     -3.5      -5.6

Domestic debt / GDP (%)                                                                  10.5             12.0         13.0     13.1     13.0     13.5      13.9

External debt / GDP (%)                                                                  15.4             15.7         18.8     21.4     19.2     19.7      23.0

Balance Of Payments

Exports of goods and services (USD bn)                                                   4.94             5.32         4.73     4.85     4.53     4.65      4.35

Imports of goods and services (USD bn)                                                   7.74             7.75         7.81     7.65     6.52     6.95      7.65

Trade balance (USD m)                                                                   -2.80            -2.43        -3.08    -2.80    -1.99    -2.30     -3.30

Current account (USD m)                                                                 -1.66            -1.79        -2.38    -1.86    -1.20    -1.60     -2.10

- % of GDP                                                                                -6.8            -6.9         -8.6     -7.6     -4.8     -6.2      -7.5

Financial account (USD m)                                                                0.71             0.78         5.92     2.38     3.24     2.87      2.90

- FDI (USD m)                                                                            1.15             1.14         1.03     0.53     0.68     0.80      1.43

Basic balance / GDP (%)                                                                   -2.1            -2.5         -4.9     -5.4     -2.1     -3.0      -2.4

FX reserves (USD m) pe                                                                     3.0              3.1         3.2      2.8      3.0      3.4       3.8

- Import cover (months) pe                                                                 4.8              4.8         5.5      5.5      5.2      4.9       5.2

Sovereign Credit Rating

S&P                                                                                         nr                  nr       B        B        B        B         B

Moody’s                                                                                     nr              B1          B1       B2       B2       B2        B2

Fitch                                                                                        B                  B        B        B        B        B         B

Monetary & Financial Indicators

Consumer inflation (%) pa                                                                14.6               5.5         4.3      5.8      5.5      5.5       4.3

Consumer inflation (%) pe                                                                  5.3              6.7         1.8      8.7      5.7      4.0       5.0

M3 money supply (% y/y) pa                                                                 7.5            11.0         16.9     13.9      8.2     13.7      16.3

M3 money supply (% y/y) pe                                                               14.9               6.0        17.1     11.7     11.1     14.4      18.2

BOU policy interest rate (%) pa                                                          18.0             11.7         11.2     14.0     14.9     10.6       9.9

BOU policy interest rate (%) pe                                                          12.0             11.5         11.0     17.0     12.0     10.0       9.0

3-m rate (%) pe                                                                          9.94             9.79        11.82    19.50     14.0      9.8      10.2

1-y rate (%) pe                                                                         10.28           12.75         13.92    22.30     15.9     11.5      12.7

2-y rate (%) pe                                                                         10.75           13.35         14.32    20.10     16.7     12.8      13.4

5-y rate (%) pe                                                                         12.20           14.75         14.39    22.30     16.9     14.0      14.9

USD/UGX pa                                                                              2 513            2582         2636     3334     3433     3628      3812

USD/UGX pe                                                                              2678             2523         2766     3 381    3596     3680      3900
Source: Bank of Uganda; Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Ministry of Finance; ; Bloomberg; Standard Bank Research

Notes: pa – period average; pe – period end; nr – not rated

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Standard Bank                                  African Markets Revealed
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Glossary
For brevity, we frequently use acronyms that refer to specific institutions or economic concepts. For reference, below we spell out
these and provide definitions of some economic concepts that they represent.

14-d                    14-day, as in 14-d deposit, which denotes 14 day deposit

10-y                    10-year

16 Jan 13               16 January 2013

3-m                     3 months

3m                      3 million, as in USD3m, which denotes 3 million US dollars

3bn                     3 billion, as in UGX3bn, which denotes 3 billion Ugandan shillings

3tr                     3 trillion, as in TZS3.0tr, which denotes 3 trillion Tanzanian shillings

AOA                     Angola Kwanza

BAM                     Bank Al Maghrib

BCC                     Banque Central du Congo (Central Bank of Congo)

BCEAO                   Banque Central des États de L’Afrique de l’Ouest (Central Bank of West African States)

BCT                     Banque Central de Tunisie

BM                      Banco de Moçambique

BNA                     Banco Nacional de Angola

BOB                     Bank of Botswana

BOG                     Bank of Ghana

BOM                     Bank of Mauritius

BON                     Bank of Namibia

                        Balance of payments – a summary position of a country’s financial transactions with the rest of the world. It
BOP
                        encompasses all international transactions in goods, services, income, transfers, financial claims and liabilities.

BOT                     Bank of Tanzania

BOU                     Bank of Uganda

BOZ                     Bank of Zambia

BR                      Bank Rate (Reserve Bank of Malawi)

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BRVM                Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (Regional Securities Exchange)

BWP                 Botswana Pula

                    Current account balance. This is the sum of the visible trade balance and the net invisible balance of a
C/A
                    country. The latter includes net service, income and transfer payments.

                    Captures the net change in investment and asset ownership for a nation by netting out a country’s inflow and
Capital account
                    outflow of public and private international investment.

CBE                 Central Bank of Egypt

CBK                 Central Bank of Kenya

CBR                 Central Bank Rate

CDF                 Congolese Franc

                    Consumer Price Index – An index that captures the average price of a basket of goods and services
CPI
                    representative of the consumption expenditure of households within an economy.

Discount rate       Policy rate for Bank of Uganda

Disinflation        A decline in the rate of inflation. Here prices are still rising but with a slower momentum.

Disposable income   After tax income

DM                  Developed markets

ECB                 European Central Bank

EGP                 Egyptian pound

EM                  Emerging markets

ETB                 Ethiopian Birr

Eurobond            A bond denominated in a currency other than the home currency of the issuer.

Exports             The monetary value of all goods and services produced in a country but consumed broad.

FMDQ                FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange, Nigeria

FX                  Foreign Exchange

FY2016/17           2016/17 fiscal year

                    Government Consumption Expenditure - Government outlays on goods and services that are used for the
GCE                 direct satisfaction of the needs of individuals or groups within the community. This would normally include all
                    non-capital government spending.

                    Gross domestic expenditure, the market value of all goods and services consumed in a country – both private
GDE                 and public – including imports but excluding exports. This is measured over a period of time – usually a
                    quarter/year.

                    Gross Fixed Capital Formation – this is investment spending, the addition to capital stock such as equipment,
GFCF                transportation assets, electricity infrastructure, etc. to replace the existing stock of productive capital that is
                    used in the production of goods and services in a given period of time, usually a year/quarter. Normally, the

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                        higher the rate of capital, the faster an economy can grow.

                        Gross Domestic Product – the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country in a
GDP
                        specific period, usually a year/quarter.

GHS                     Ghanaian Cedi

H1:16                   First half of 2016

Imports                 The monetary value of goods and services produced abroad and consumed locally.

                        The rate at which the general level of prices of goods and services are rising. It is usually measured as the
Inflation
                        percentage change in the consumer price index over a specific period, usually a month/year.

Invisible trade balance The value of exports of services, income and transfers, less imports of same.

Jan 16                  January 2016

KBRR                    Kenya Bankers’ Reference Rate

KES                     Kenya Shilling

KR                      Key Rate (Bank Al Maghrib)

KRR                     Key Repo Rate

m/m                     Month on month, in reference to a rate of change

MAD                     Moroccan Dirham

MLF                     Marginal Lending Facility

MOF                     Ministry of Finance

MPC                     Monetary Policy Committee, the committee that makes the decision on policy rates

MPR                     Monetary Policy Rate

MUR                     Mauritian Rupee

MWK                     Malawian Kwacha

MZN                     Mozambican Metical

NAD                     Namibian Dollar

NBE                     National Bank of Ethiopia

NBR                     National Bank of Rwanda

                        Nominal Effective Exchange Rate. This is the weighted average rate at which a country’s currency exchanges
NEER
                        for a basket of currencies, usually trading partner currencies. It is measured in index format.

NGN                     Nigerian Naira

                        The monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country in a specific period, usually a
Nominal GDP
                        year/quarter, measured in current prices.

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NPL                     Non-Performing Loans

                        Refers to the par or nominal value of a debt instrument. This is usually the price at which the said instrument
Parity
                        is redeemed on maturity.

                        Personal or Household Consumption Expenditure: The monetary value of household purchases of durable
PCE or HCE
                        goods, non-durable goods, semi durables and services within a given period of time, usually a year/quarter.

PR                      Policy Rate

Prime rate              key lending rate

q/q                     quarter on quarter, in reference to a rate of change

Q1:16                   First quarter of 2016

RBM                     Reserve Bank of Malawi

                        The monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country in a specific period, usually a
Real GDP
                        year/quarter, measured in constant prices.

                        Real Effective Exchange Rate. This is the weighted average rate at which a country’s currency exchanges for a
REER                    basket of currencies - usually trading partner currencies – while taking into account any changes in relative
                        prices between the host country and its trading partners. It is often measured in index format.

RWF                     Rwandan Frank

SARB                    South African Reserve Bank

SDF                     Standing Deposit Facility (Mozambique)

SLF                     Standing Lending Facility (Mozambique)

                        Treasury bill – A short-dated, government backed security that yields no interest but is issued at a discount
T-bill
                        over a period of less than one year.

TND                     Tunisian Dinar

Treasury bond           A marketable government debt security with a maturity of a year or longer

TZS                     Tanzanian Shilling

UGX                     Uganda Shilling

USD                     US Dollar

VAT                     Value Added Tax

Visible trade balance   The value of exports of visible goods less imports.

                        West African Economic and Monetary Union, also known as Union Economique et Monetaire Ouest Africaine
WAEMU
                        (UEMOA)

XAF                     Central African Franc

XOF                     West African Franc

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y/y             Year on year, in reference to a rate of change

Yield           The return on an investment, usually expressed as a percentage over a period of time, usually a year.

YTD             Year to date

ZAR             South African Rand

ZMW             Zambian Kwacha

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Standard Bank                                    African Markets Revealed
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Standard Bank Research
Penny Byrne                       Phumelele Mbiyo                      Jibran Qureishi
+27-11-415-4177                   +27-11-415-4486                      +254-203-638138
Penny.Byrne@standardbank.co.za    Phumelele.Mbiyo@standardbank.co.za   Jibran.Qureishi@stanbic.com

Walter de Wet                     Ayomide Mejabi                       Dmitry Shishkin
+27-11-415-4176                   +234-1-270-0667 Ext: 1923            +44-203-145-6963
Walter.DeWet@standardbank.co.za   Ayomide.Mejabi@stanbicibtc.com       Dmitry.Shishkin@standardbank.com

Michael Kafe                      Fausio Mussa
+27-11-415-4000                   +258 215 01012
Michael.Kafe@standardbank.co.za   Fausio.Mussa@standardbank.co.mz
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