ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington

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ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
ANTARCTIC
RESEARCH
CENTRE Annual Review 2018
ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
6                          $3.7                                                                   23
                                                                                                           Nature
                                                                                                           group

                        125,000                                                                            papers
                                                                                               published by ARC staff;
                                                                                               3 in Nature, 2 in Nature              million
                                                                                                                                                                                                 presentations

                            years ago
                                                                                                                                                                                                 given to politicians,
                                                                                              Communications and 1 in                                                                         stakeholders, schools and
                                                                                               Nature Climate Change.       GNS Science sub-contract for the
                                                                                                                          MBIE-funded Past Antarctic Climates                                 community groups by ARC
                       parts of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet                                                                                                                                     staff and students.
                                                                                                                           (PAC) programme has ended after
                               melted contributing to
                                                                                                                          eight years, with numerous research
                         6-9 metre higher sea levels than
                                                                                                                                        outcomes.
                        today, according to a Nature paper

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10
                           co-authored by Rob McKay.

                                                                                                                                                                                                        three
                                                                            2         new                                                                                                               out of
      17             years
      Andrew Mackintosh
                                                                                      staff
                                                                          welcomed to the ARC family,
                                                                       Stefan Jendersie and Richard Levy.
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Rutherford Foundation
                                                                                                                                                                                                      New Zealand Postdoctoral Fellowships,
                                                                                                                                                                                                      awarded to Bella Duncan, Holly Winton,
                                                                                                                                                                                                               and Oliver Wigmore,

                                                                                                                                          $960K
                                                                                                                                                                                                            will be based in the ARC.
    has worked for Victoria
     University, as he says
   goodbye as ARC Director.                                                                                                              Marsden
                                                                                                                                           Fund
                                                                              $49
                                                                                                                                         awarded to Rob McKay to
                                                                                                                                         improve knowledge of the
                                                                                                                                        magnitude of ice sheet-ocean
                                                                                                      million

                                                                                                                                                                                   3
                                                                                                                                               interactions.
                                                                                 over 7 years of Government                                                                               IPCC Lead
                                                                             investment in a Strategic Science
                                                                              Investment Fund (SSIF) platform
                                                                                                                                                                                          Authors
                                             32
                                                                              for Antarctic science, directed by
                                                                                                                                                                                    Nick Golledge was selected for
                                                                                        Nancy Bertler.
                                                                                                                                                                                    Chapter 9 ‘Ocean, cryosphere,
                                                                                                                                                                                     and sea level change’ in the
                                       publications                                                                                                                                current assessment. He joins the
                                    with ARC authorship                                                                                                                             ranks with Andrew Mackintosh
                                                                                                                                                                                            and Tim Naish.

                                                                                                                               3 theses
  Beryllium10                                                                                                                submitted by ARC
                                                                                                                            supervised students,
work led by Shaun Eaves opens the door                                                                                     one PhD and two MSc.
  for cosmogenic nuclide applications

                                                                             45                                                                                                                                       51
   in volcanic rocks, as well as quartz.                                                                                                                                                                                           media
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   interviews

                                                                                                                                             2 degrees
   By obtaining accurate estimates of
cosmogenic nuclide production rates we
can help quantify rates of past ice sheet                                                                                                                                                                                 given by ARC staff on
                 change.                                                       years                                                                                                                                      Antarctic and climate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             related issues.
                                                                after the first drill cores were taken in the
                                                                                                                                               of global warming is sufficient
                                                                 Ross Sea, Rob McKay and the team on
                                                                                                                                              to trigger long-term melting and
                                                                board IODP Expedition 374, retrieved the
                                                                                                                                            ongoing sea-level rise from both the
                                                               longest-ever drill ship piston core from the
                                                                                                                                            Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
                                                                              Southern Ocean.
                                                                                                                                            according to research published by
                                                                                                                                                       Nick Golledge in
                                                                                                                                                   Nature Climate Change.
ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
Contents                            director’s                                   discussion on the future of Antarctica at the
                                                                                 POLAR18 meeting in Davos, Switzerland,
                                                                                                                                 inspiring female speakers in Antarctic
                                                                                                                                 science right now. I received a great list of
                                                                                                                                                                                     I start my new position as Head of
                                                                                                                                                                                     the School of Earth, Atmosphere and

                                    summary
                                                                                 hosted by Nature magazine. We were              suggestions, and in 2018 invited Professor          Environment at Monash University in
 2      Director’s Summary                                                       particularly effective at engaging with         Dorthe Dahl-Jensen (Niels Bohr Institute)           Australia on 1 May, and it is with mixed
                                                                                 present and former New Zealand and              as the first of this group. I hope that this list   feelings that I prepare to move to
 5      Our Research Approach                                                    international political leaders. In June,       provides some useful suggestions to the
                                                                                                                                 next ARC Director.
                                                                                                                                                                                     Melbourne. I’m excited about new research
                                                                                                                                                                                     and the opportunity to lead a significant
                                    As I prepare to leave Wellington after 17    Rob McKay briefed the European Union
 7      Research Outcomes           years at Victoria University, surrounded
                                    by half-packed boxes, I reflect on what
                                                                                 Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström on
                                                                                 innovations in Antarctic geological drilling    Another of my goals as ARC Director was to
                                                                                                                                                                                     academic department, particularly one
                                                                                                                                                                                     with strength in both the atmospheric and
                                                                                                                                                                                     earth sciences. However, I will miss working
19     Science Drilling Office      we have achieved in the ARC not only
                                    in the last year but also since I arrived
                                                                                 and international Antarctic and geoscience
                                                                                 collaboration at the request of Trade and
                                                                                                                                 ensure that we had the correct team to lead
                                                                                                                                 our major projects and to answer the most           in the ARC, the School of Geography,
                                    in Wellington in 2002. Back then, the        Export Growth Minister Hon. David Parker.       pressing questions in Antarctic science. In         Environment and Earth Sciences, and in
21     Teaching & Supervision       Antarctic Research Centre (ARC) was          In July, I hosted a visit by former Prime       2018, we made two new appointments,                 Wellington with its access to government
                                    internationally renowned for Antarctic       Minister and head of the United Nations         Richard Levy from GNS Science and Stefan            agencies and Crown Research Institutes. I
23     Significant Events           drilling and ice sheet history, a legacy     Development Programme, Rt. Hon. Helen           Jendersie from NIWA as part of the MBIE-            will never forget the support that I received
                                    that we continue to build on today. In       Clark. And in November, Nick Golledge,          funded NZ SeaRise programme. Stefan,                from previous ARC Directors Peter and
33     Financial Summary            subsequent years and particularly during     Nancy Bertler and James Renwick (SGEES)         appointed as a fixed-term Research Fellow,          Tim, and my rewarding collaborations with
                                    Tim Naish’s reign as ARC Director, our       hosted a visit by Minister for Climate          is a very talented - and I’m sure he will           colleagues and students that became
39     Engagement & Outreach        staff and student numbers, range of
                                    expertise, and external funding portfolio
                                                                                 Change, Hon. James Shaw and Luke Gaskin
                                                                                 (MFAT).
                                                                                                                                 appreciate me saying this - young ocean
                                                                                                                                 modeller, who has helped to fill a significant
                                                                                                                                                                                     friendships - we have achieved a lot
                                                                                                                                                                                     together. Michelle, I’ll even miss working on
43     Publications & Conferences   expanded greatly. I was therefore lucky
                                    to be appointed as Director of a thriving,   Another key development in 2018 was
                                                                                                                                 gap; numerical modelling of ocean
                                                                                                                                 circulation at regional scale, including
                                                                                                                                                                                     this annual review together! I look forward
                                                                                                                                                                                     to continuing my relationship with the ARC
                                    internationally renowned research centre     the appointment of Nancy Bertler to the         under ice shelves. This is critical expertise       as an Adjunct Professor, and I wish the ARC
48     Our People                   in April, 2017.                              position of Director of the Antarctic Science   because most of the heat reaching the               and its new Director every success in the
                                                                                 Platform. This required Nancy to step           Antarctic continent leading to ice sheet            future.
                                    As freshly minted ARC Director, I had a      aside from her own substantive ice core         mass loss is being delivered via the ocean.
                                    few immediate goals. It was clear that       programme (see research outcome on the          Future projections of the Antarctic ice
                                    we were performing very well in terms of     RICE project) to oversee the development        sheet will remain somewhat limited in
                                    research outputs, and I was motivated to     of this multimillion dollar national science    their quality until we better represent the
                                    see whether we could do more in terms        platform, funded by MBIE and hosted by          physical processes linking the oceans to
                                    of engagement with policy makers and         Antarctica New Zealand. Nancy brings a          the ice. We appointed Richard Levy, a long-
                                    funding agencies. I also wanted to use       ~20 year record of international scholarship    term ARC collaborator, Antarctic geologist
                                    my position to encourage and develop         and research leadership to this role, and       and paleoclimate expert, on a permanent
                                    the careers of our younger researchers,      I’m delighted for her and very proud that       0.2 FTE position to lead the NZ SeaRise
                                    including addressing the staff gender        one of our staff was chosen to lead this        programme. Richard also brings significant
                                    balance in our Centre. With this latter      critical venture. Additionally, I am pleased    strategic leadership and outreach/
                                    goal in mind, a major achievement in         that Huw Horgan and Richard Levy were           engagement expertise to the ARC.
                                    2018 was securing three new Rutherford       chosen as co-investigators of the science
                                    Postdoctoral Fellowships, with two of        programme.                                      Each year without fail in the ARC we
                                    these awarded to female scientists.                                                          publish world-class publications and bring
                                    Remarkably, only ten such fellowships        One area where I was looking for change in      in significant research funding. In 2018
                                    were awarded in New Zealand overall,         2018 was the S.T. Lee Lecture in Antarctic      Rob McKay led the way with a $960,000
                                    which is a testament not only to the high    Studies, where only one out of fifteen of       Marsden grant which he will use to better
                                    quality of the applicants but also to the    our previous speakers had been a female         understand the role of ocean heat in ice
                                    draw of our Centre. As I write, our own      scientist. All of our previous speakers         sheet loss over geological timescales. Rob
                                    Bella Duncan, as well as Oliver Wigmore      have been outstanding (and I chose one          also co-authored a Nature paper which
                                    from the University of Colorado Boulder,     of the male speakers), but this imbalance       demonstrated that the East Antarctic Ice
                                    USA, have just started. Holly Winton from    needed to be addressed. We have also had        Sheet lost significant mass during late
                                    the British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge,     a preference for inviting very senior and       Quaternary interglacial warm periods. Tim
                                    UK, will join us later in 2019.              distinguished scientists, whereas I thought     Naish and Nick Golledge also published a
                                                                                                                                                                                     Professor Andrew Mackintosh
                                                                                 there might also be role for inviting high-     Nature paper on reconstructing the long-
                                                                                                                                                                                     Director, Antarctic Research Centre
                                    We’ve had a terrific year of engagement,     profile early to mid-career researchers. For    term history of the Antarctic ice sheet using
                                    with 23 presentations to government          several years, Tim Naish has been trying        cosmogenic isotopes preserved in legacy
                                    and other influential stakeholders. Nick     to persuade Valerie Masson Delmotte,            material from ANDRILL cores, and Tim co-
                                    Golledge joined myself and Tim Naish         co-chair of IPCC Working Group, to deliver      authored a third Nature paper on the future
                                    as the third member of ARC staff to          an S.T. Lee lecture, but unfortunately her      of Antarctica, authored by recipients of the
                                    be nominated as an IPCC Lead Author,         schedule has so far been too busy. So           prestigious Tinker/Muse Prize for Science
                                    and Tim Naish participated in a panel        I asked our staff to nominate the most          and Policy in Antarctica.

Photo: Michelle Dow
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3
ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
our
                                                                                                       research
       Our mission is to improve understanding of
       Antarctic climate and ice sheet processes
                                                                                                       approach
       and their impact on New Zealand and the                                                         Rationale                                   research is informing the International
                                                                                                                                                   Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
                                                                                                       We are rapidly heading towards a            Improved understanding of climate

                      Earth system                                                                     climate that is 2-4oC warmer than
                                                                                                       present. Ice sheets and oceans take
                                                                                                                                                   change impacts including sea-level rise
                                                                                                                                                   impacts in the southwest Pacific region
                                                                                                       centuries to millennia to fully adjust to   provide tangible benefits to all New
                                                                                                       climate forcing, and the fundamental        Zealanders. Our research is leveraged
                                                                                                       changes that we are observing               by very strong national and international
                                                                                                       today may be irreversible on human          collaborations and partnerships, and
                                                                                                       timescales. In order to provide reliable,   world-leading in-house polar drilling
                                                                                                       policy-relevant projections of future       technology provided by the Science
                                                                                                       climate and sea level, scientists are       Drilling Office. We are funded and
                                                                                                       increasingly relying on computer            supported through a range of MBIE,
                                                                                                       models. Our Centre has undergone a          Marsden, and Rutherford programmes,
                                                                                                       numerical revolution, and around half       Antarctica New Zealand and private
                                                                                                       of our staff now routinely carry out        donations.
                                                                                                       physics-based computer simulations of
                                                                                                       past, present and future climate.           In summary, our approach involves:

                                                                                                       We develop confidence in future climate     a. Improving our physical understanding
                                                                                                       projections if models show skill at         and observation of modern climate,
                                                                                                       simulating present and past climate.        ocean, glacier and ice sheet systems.
                                                                                                       Because direct climate and ice sheet
The Antarctic Research Centre (ARC) is a centre of research excellence                                 observations span the last century at       b. Acquiring past observations of
                                                                                                       best, reconstructions of past climate       surface temperature, precipitation,
within the Faculty of Science at Victoria University of Wellington,                                                                                atmospheric composition (greenhouse
                                                                                                       conditions provide the only means to
and reports directly to the Dean of Science.                                                                                                       gases and aerosols), ice sheet, glacier,
                                                                                                       assess climate and ice sheet models on
                                                                                                       their relevant timescales. Furthermore,     and sea-ice variability, and oceanic
It is co-located with the School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences,                         past climate observations provide           conditions from terrestrial, marine,
with which it shares academic staff, facilities and contributes to both undergraduate and graduate     insight into the long term “endgame”        lacustrine and ice core archives.
teaching and supervision.                                                                              (equilibrium response), that we will
                                                                                                       commit our planet to this century based     c. Developing and improving numerical
Our research provides exciting opportunities and challenges for young researchers, a sound basis for   on current warming scenarios. Past          models of climate-ocean-glacier and
international climate change assessment and will help build a more resilient New Zealand.              climate records also provide insight into   ice sheet systems, by advancing
                                                                                                       the rates and magnitudes of climate         the physics, and then carrying out
                                                                                                       and ice sheet changes that may be           sound evaluation of models against
                                                                                                       possible in the near future, and allow      modern observations and past climate
                                                                                                       the fingerprint of human influences to      reconstructions.
                                                                                                       be identified in the context of natural
                                                                                                       variability in the climate system.          d. Using our models to improve future
                                                                                                                                                   climate simulations, and projections
                                                                                                                                                   of glacier and ice sheet contribution
                                                                                                       Outcome-based research                      to sea-level rise, river flows and other
                                                                                                                                                   changes in the Earth System.
                                                                                                       Our research approach is policy-relevant
                                                                                                       and outcome focused. We aim to              e. We disseminate our research
                                                                                                       improve forecasts of future climate         findings through publications in the
                                                                                                       change including their global and New       world’s leading scientific journals, and
                                                                                                       Zealand impacts, for the benefit of         through education, communication and
                                                                                                       humanity. By reducing the uncertainties     outreach to the public, practitioners and
                                                                                                       around future climate and sea-level         policy makers.
Photo: Dan Zwartz
                                                                                                       rise predictions, our cutting-edge
ARC Annual Review 2018                                                                                                                                                                        5
ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
research
                         outcomes

Photo: Cliff Atkins
ARC Annual Review 2018              7
ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
Choosing their future
In cities around the world,                      that led to greater melt of the Antarctic ice   ‘Low-emissions economy’ and stressed the
hundreds of thousands of                         sheet, a reduction of summer sea ice, and       urgency for ‘immediate action’. So, it seems
children are protesting.                         an acceleration of global sea-level rise.       that both the science and the necessary
                                                 Lack of proper regulation led to increased      response are clear. But the question our
                                                 human presence in Antarctica as well as         children pose still stands - since we know
Inspired by a Swedish teenager, these            increased fishing, leading to much greater      this, why aren’t we doing more?
children are trying - very successfully - to     environmental degradation. Under a low
draw attention to climate change. But more       emissions scenario the outlook was much         CONTACT: Nick.Golledge@vuw.ac.nz
importantly, these future voters are voicing     better, but not completely without impacts.
their dissatisfaction and frustration with the   Sea ice only reduced slightly from present-     • Greta Thunberg’s address
current state of global climate policy. They     day levels and melting of ice shelves           https://www.eesc.europa.eu/en/news-
see a future world that is very different from   was similarly reduced compared to the           media/videos/speech-greta-thunberg-
                                                                                                 climate-activist
what it would be without greenhouse gas          high emissions scenario. The ice sheet
emissions from human activities. They want       contribution to sea-level rise was much         • IPCC
to change the path that we are currently         lower, and ecosystem impacts were much          https://www.ipcc.ch/
on and choose their own future - one             less serious.
that keeps greenhouse warming below 2                                                            • MfE Zero Carbon Bill                                                                                                      Icebergs off the East Antarctic Ice Sheet - Photo: Rob McKay
degrees. Their figurehead, Greta Thunberg,       This study drew on published research to        https://www.mfe.govt.nz/have-your-say-
told the audience at the recent European         present two alternatives for the future,        zero-carbon
Economic and Social Committee in Brussels        essentially asking the reader to ‘choose’
to, ‘unite behind the science’, a deliberate     which world we would rather live in. But it     • :vivideconomics report on Net Zero in New
criticism of the fact that governments           highlighted that we are already committed       Zealand
around the world have failed to act on           to ongoing changes, even with aggressive
                                                                                                 http://www.vivideconomics.com/
                                                                                                 publications/net-zero-in-new-zealand
                                                                                                                                                Moderate levels of warming
what international scientific guidance
has been warning since the first report of
                                                 mitigation. These long-term commitments,
                                                 in both the Antarctic and Greenland ice         • NZ Productivity Commission ‘Low-
                                                                                                                                                puts the East Antarctic Ice Sheet
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) in 1990.
                                                 sheets, were the subject of a second high-
                                                 profile paper in Nature Climate Change
                                                                                                 emissions economy’ Final Report                at risk
                                                                                                 https://www.productivity.govt.nz/inquiry-
                                                 (Pattyn, et al., 2018), that included ARC       content/3254?stage=4
The science we undertake in the ARC              researcher and IPCC Lead Author Nick                                                           New Nature article suggests                  In 2018, a paper published in Nature          retreated significantly inland relative to
contributes significantly to IPCC reports        Golledge. This paper reviewed geological                                                       the world’s largest ice sheet,               (Wilson et al., 2018), and led by             today, and was therefore a contributor to
through the journal articles we write, the       and numerical modelling studies in an                                                          the East Antarctic Ice Sheet,                collaborators at Imperial College of          Last Interglacial sea levels.
international collaborations we build, and       attempt to define the points at which                                                                                                       London, found that the East Antarctic
                                                                                                                                                may have been a significant
our direct representation in the authorship      ongoing loss of the two ice sheets becomes                                                                                                  Ice Sheet was reduced in extent during        If all of the ice that sits below sea level
                                                                                                                                                contributor to sea-level rise                this time of elevated sea level, as well      today were to melt, East Antarctica could
of these assessments. In 2018, Tim Naish,        inevitable. The analysis found that both ice
former Director of the ARC and past IPCC         sheets have surprisingly low tolerances for
                                                                                                                                                despite it being considered                  as during other “moderately warmer-           contribute up to 19 metres of sea-level
Lead Author, contributed to a high-profile       environmental change, and that an average                                                      the least vulnerable.                        than-present” climates over the past          rise. Although these results indicate
publication in the journal Nature (Rintoul,      global warming of only two degrees is                                                                                                       400,000 years. This suggests that some        that only a fraction of this ice melted,
et al., 2018) that posed the exact same          sufficient to trigger long-term melting and                                                    Coral reef studies suggest that global       of the ice that remained on Earth after       it demonstrates that a modest but
question those school-children are asking        ongoing sea-level rise. In Greenland this                                                      sea levels were 6-9 metres higher            the end of the last ice age (~20,000          sustained warming of just 1-2 degrees
today - what happens if greenhouse gas           arises from feedbacks with the atmosphere,                                                     than today during the Last Interglacial      years ago), including that in East            is enough to cause the ice sheet in East
emissions remain unchecked? Looking              whereas in Antarctica the ongoing melt is                                                      Period 125,000 years ago. However,           Antarctica, may already be primed for         Antarctica to retreat from some of its
back to the present from 2070, Tim and his       driven by ocean warming.                                                                       global climate during this period was        renewed melting.                              low-lying areas.
colleagues used the best available science                                                                                                      only 1-2oC warmer than preindustrial,
to predict what changes would have               Both studies show that urgent and much                                                                                                      The ARC’s Rob McKay contributed               CONTACT: Robert.McKay@vuw.ac.nz
                                                                                                                                                and although ice sheet melt is implied
occurred in Antarctica and the Southern          more ambitious mitigation efforts are                                                          for sea-level rise of this magnitude, it     to this study by identifying sediment
Ocean. Focusing on two different scenarios,      essential for slowing the pace at which ice                                                    has long puzzled scientists which ice        layers related to elevated levels of
the authors first imagined what Antarctica       sheet melt and long-term environmental                                                         sheets contributed to this rise. There       iceberg discharge associated with loss
and the Southern Ocean might look like if        change take place. In New Zealand our                                                          is evidence that Greenland remained          of ice in East Antarctica. These layers
greenhouse gases kept increasing the way         current government are proposing a                                                             partially glaciated at this time, and        were compared with geochemical
they are now. In the second, they explore an     mechanism to ensure a ‘just transition’ to                                                     West Antarctica does not hold enough         “fingerprinting” techniques, led by David
alternative world in which strong mitigation     a low-carbon economy – the Zero Carbon                                                         vulnerable ice to contribute to this event   Wilson and Tina van de Flierdt (Imperial
took place, and the worst climate change         Bill – underpinned by a British-based                                                          alone. This raises the possibility that      College of London). The geochemical
impacts were avoided.                            economic analysis from :vivideconomics                                                         the world’s largest ice sheet, the East      fingerprints of the sediment were
                                                 that aims to, ‘help illuminate long-term                                                       Antarctic Ice Sheet, was a significant       consistent with erosion of rocks that
The findings were alarming. In the               low-emission pathways’. In August 2018,                                                        contributor despite it being considered      now lie far beneath the East Antarctic
unmitigated world, rising global                 the New Zealand Productivity Commission                                                        the least vulnerable to moderate levels      Ice Sheet. These combined lines of
temperatures changed ocean currents and          published their final report to government                                                     of warming.                                  evidence showed that the ice sheet had
atmospheric circulation patterns in ways         outlining the transformations required for a

ARC Annual Review 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      9
ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
Cosmic signals of past ice sheet behaviour
Since inception of the state-                   In the journal Quaternary Geochronology,          during these past collapse events. This
of-the-art Victoria University                  ARC Lecturer Shaun Eaves led a multi-             new work (Shakun et al., 2018), published
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         from bubbles to
of Wellington Cosmogenic                        author paper (Eaves et al., 2018) that            in the leading scientific journal, Nature,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         global temperatures
Laboratory in 2013, ARC                         presents new estimates of the production          showed that quartz sand, eroded from the
                                                rate of cosmogenic 10Be in pyroxene. This         continent and transported to the Ross Sea
research driven by Andrew
                                                work is significant for two main reasons.         by East Antarctic outlet glaciers, contains                                                                                                            Ice cores record significant and
Mackintosh and Kevin Norton                     First, routine chemical techniques for 10Be       almost no cosmogenic 10Be. This result
has maximised the opportunities                                                                                                                                                                                                                          abrupt past climate changes
                                                extraction currently only exist for quartz.       is significant because it implies that the
this capability offers to                       Therefore this new work opens the door            portion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         associated with large and
interrogate past ice sheet                      for cosmogenic nuclide applications in            supplies sediment to the Andrill-1B site has                                                                                                           rapid changes in atmospheric
behaviour in Antarctica.                        volcanic rocks, such as the Ferrar Dolerite.      remained in place, effectively shielding the                                                                                                           greenhouse gases, such as
                                                Second, accurate estimates of cosmogenic          continent from cosmic radiation, for the                                                                                                               methane.
Cosmogenic nuclides are rare isotopes           nuclide production rates are required             last 8 million years. Long-term stability of                PhD student Katelyn Johnson with NZ Ice Core Facility Manager, Rebecca Pyne - Photo: VUW
(e.g. 10Be, 26Al, 3He) produced continuously    to convert concentrations into exposure           land-based ice, points the finger at marine-                                                                                                           While our current estimates of past
in minerals situated at Earth’s surface by      durations, and thus quantify rates of past        based sectors capable of rising sea level                                                                                                              climates have vastly improved with ice
cosmic radiation emitted from supanovae.        ice sheet change. Building on previous ARC        by ~22 metres during past warmer-than-                                                                                                                 core data, large uncertainties remain in
Accumulation of these isotopes over time        research at Mackay Glacier (Jones et al.,         present times, such as the Pliocene,                 east and west antarctica                                                                          our understanding of the relationships
can be harnessed as a useful geological
clock: the longer a host rock sits at Earth’s
                                                2015. Nature Communications 6 no.8910),
                                                Shaun and the team demonstrated the
                                                                                                  3-5 million years ago.
                                                                                                                                                       at loggerheads                                                                                    between greenhouse gases extracted
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         from the bubbles and local temperatures
surface exposed to cosmic radiation, the        utility of this new technique by presenting       With in-house laboratory capability and                                                                                                                extracted from the surrounding ice. We
greater the cosmogenic nuclide content.         a complementary chronology of ice surface         a long tradition of successful sediment              The Roosevelt Island Climate                    accumulation, one of only three such              have developed a new method to obtain
This technique is particularly powerful         lowering at this East Antarctic outlet glacier    recovery from terrestrial and marine                 Evolution (RICE) project, a NZ-                 records from Antarctica extending past            a more accurate gas signal that is less
in glacial environments where flowing           since the Last Glacial Maximum.                   archives around the Antarctic margin,                                                                the last millennium. The RICE records             attenuated and increases the time
ice quarries rocks from depth, ultimately                                                         the ARC is well placed to harness this
                                                                                                                                                       led, nine-nation collaboration
                                                                                                                                                                                                       show that snow accumulation continued             resolution of the gas measurements in
exposing them to cosmic radiation at ice        In a separate study, led by Jeremy Shakun         powerful cosmogenic toolbox to unlock
                                                                                                                                                       achieved some exciting and                      to increase until the 15th Century, when          ice cores. Our first results show combined
margins. Applications in such settings offer    (Boston College, USA) and co-authored by          further mysteries concerning past ice                significant milestones.                         it sharply started to decrease until              measurements/experiments from the
the opportunity to directly quantify past       the ARC’s Tim Naish and Nick Golledge,            sheet dynamics. Future work will target                                                              modern times. This is curious as over             RICE core and modelling to produce gas-
changes in ice sheet extent over timescales     measurements of cosmogenic 10Be in                the sensitive marine-based margins of                Two age models for the past 2,700               the same time period, local temperature           trapping functions, and gain information
of hundreds, thousands, or even millions of     the Andrill-1B site revealed the long-term        both East and West Antarctica, which are             years and 83,000 years were finalised           steadily increased, usually conducive to          about how many bubbles were closed off
years.                                          stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.        thought to be most vulnerable to future              and spliced. The 2,700 year age scale,          an increase in moisture and thus snow             at each considered depth.
                                                The Andrill-1B core was recovered in              ocean warming.                                       developed under the lead of Mai Winstrup        fall. This suggests a sensitive feedback
In 2018, ARC researchers published              2006 from beneath the Ross Ice Shelf                                                                   (then University of Copenhagen), takes          mechanism induced by large scale                  The research was presented at the SCAR/
two papers that encompass both                  and contains sedimentary evidence that            CONTACT: Shaun.Eaves@vuw.ac.nz                       advantage of seasonally resolved                changes in sea ice cover. Moreover, the           IASC Polar2018 Conference in Davos,
the development and application of              suggests multiple periods of reduced ice                                                               geochemical records and applies an              RICE records show that the eastern Ross           Switzerland, and submitted to the Journal
cosmogenic nuclide dating, which help           sheet extent, relative to present, occurred                                                            independent uncertainty assessment              Sea and West Antarctica experienced               of Geophysical Research.
understand past ice sheet response to           during Earth’s past warm intervals.                                                                    using volcanic eruptions identified via         opposing trends in temperature and snow
climate.                                        However, outstanding questions concern                                                                 geochemical peaks and one visible ash.          accumulation over the past 2,700 years.           CONTACT: Ruzica.Dadic@vuw.ac.nz
                                                the precise configuration of Antarctic ice                                                             The 83,000 year age scale, developed            During the Little Ice Age period, West
                                                                                                                                                       under the lead of James Lee (then               Antarctica and the western Ross Sea
                                                                                                                                                       Oregon State University), takes advantage       (adjacent East Antarctica) experienced
                                                                                                                                                       of the high resolution RICE methane data        significant cooling, while the central Ross
                                                                                                 Beacon sandstone, Antarctica - Photo: Richard Jones   to correlate with the West Antarctic Ice        Sea (in the vicinity of Roosevelt Island),
                                                                                                                                                       Sheet Divide (WDC) and the Greenland            continued to warm. With an emerging
                                                                                                                                                       (NGRIP) ice core records.                       network of high resolution, well dated
                                                                                                                                                                                                       ice core records, such regional patterns
                                                                                                                                                       The availability of these two age scales        can now be detected and deciphered
                                                                                                                                                       enabled the RICE team to shift their focus      providing important constraints for ice
                                                                                                                                                       on the interpretation of the environmental      sheet models projecting future scenarios.
                                                                                                                                                       and glaciological information contained
                                                                                                                                                       in the core leading to the publication          While the RICE team is now focusing on
                                                                                                                                                       of a RICE community paper in Climate            the deglaciation, three ARC PhD students,
                                                                                                                                                       of the Past (Bertler, et al., 2018) with        Katelyn Johnson, Lukas Eling and Abhijith
                                                                                                                                                       a focus on the past 2,700 years. The            Ulayottil Venugopal have extended the
                                                                                                                                                       comparison of ice core proxies with             geochemical records to encompass
                                                                                                                                                       climate data showed that the RICE               the early Holocene and glacial periods.
                                                                                                                                                       records are highly sensitive to air             The emerging records promise to reveal
                                                                                                                                                       temperature, changes in sea ice cover,          many more surprises and to improve
                                                                                                                                                       sea surface temperature, atmospheric            our understanding of the inner workings
                                                                                                                                                       circulation pattern and marine primary          of the Ross Ice Shelf, and its future
                                                                                                                                                       productivity, providing a sensitive tool        behaviour, helping to quantify future sea
                                                                                                                                                       for environmental reconstructions in this       level contributions from Antarctica.
                                                                                                                                                       important region. The high resolution age
                                                                                                                                                       scale permitted the calculation of snow          CONTACT: Nancy.Bertler@vuw.ac.nz

ARC Annual Review 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            11
ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
drilling mission captures a 20
 million year record of
 ocean-ice sheet interactions
  In 2018, an international                      the climatic threshold was for the loss of
  research team travelled to the                 the last land-based plants in Antarctica.
  Ross Sea aboard the JOIDES                                                                       ice sheets and sea
  Resolution, as part of the                     Investigation of the chemistry and                level in the pliocene
  International Ocean Discovery                  fossil content in the cores, along side
  Program (IODP) Expedition 374.                 modelling experiments, will also help
                                                 understand the implications of large              Why ice sheets grow and decay
                                                 freshwater releases from the Antarctic            and their role in setting global
 The expedition was led by the ARC’s Rob         ice sheet into the Southern Ocean. The            sea level lies at the heart of our
 McKay and Laura De Santis (Istituto             most obvious impact is sea level, but a           research interests.
 Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica        fresher ocean could lead to changes in
 Sperimentale, Italy) and obtained five          sea ice extent, nutrient delivery to marine
 sediment cores up to 700 metres in              plankton, and affect the way oceanic              In 2018, we started to see the culmination
 length. The sites formed a continental          heat is transported from Antarctica to the        of several year’s work on a section of
 shelf to deep sea transect designed             rest of the planet - as a large component         Pliocene rocks deposited 3 million years                                                                                                        Friis Hiils, Antarctica - Photo: Tim Naish
 to understand past oceanic-ice sheet            of ocean circulation near the edge of the         ago in Whanganui Basin supported by Tim
 interactions. The project was designed          Antarctic Continent is driven by changes          Naish’s Marsden grant and undertaken
 to build on the results of the ANDRILL          in the density of surface ocean waters.           by Georgia Grant as her PhD topic and
 project, drilled over a decade ago that                                                           presented at AGU in December. In 2018,
 provided the first clear evidence that
 the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) had
                                                 The expedition broke several long-
                                                 standing Antarctic drilling records: it
                                                                                                   Georgia led a paper in Quaternary Science
                                                                                                   Reviews outlining the detailed stratigraphy
                                                                                                                                                  Past Antarctic Climates programme legacy
 collapsed numerous times over the past          achieved the highest-ever recovery rate           of two drill holes in the Turakina River
 20 million years. The loss of this “marine      (63%) and deepest drill hole (702 m)              valley that also incorporates unpublished      Since 2010, one of the ARC’s                  Stutz, and Ross Whitmore), and one         response to climate change will inform
 based” ice sheet is thought to be due to        from a drill ship core on the Antarctic           work from two other former ARC students        underpinning research projects                MSc student (Libby Galbraith). Some        new work being conducted under the
 oceanic warming melting the ice at its          continental shelf, and retrieved the              – Juliet Sefton and Molly Patterson.                                                         achievements of these early career         MBIE-funded NZ SeaRise programme.
                                                                                                                                                  has been the MBIE-funded
 marine margin, rather than “top down”           longest-ever piston core (271 m) in the                                                                                                        researchers include Jamey organising
 melting by the atmosphere.                      Southern Ocean, giving the research               These shallow marine sediments
                                                                                                                                                  Past Antarctic Climates (PAC)                 and chairing two workshops; one held at    Over the eight years, numerous papers
                                                 team one of the most pristine geological          contain systematic changes in species
                                                                                                                                                  programme.                                    the Past Antarctic Ice Sheets Conference   have been published in leading journals
 While IODP Expedition 374 also sought           records ever obtained of ice sheet                of microscopic shells and grain size                                                         in 2017 and the other at the SCAR/IASC     such as Nature, Nature Communications,
 to identify additional periods of major         variability and oceanographic change              that point to rising and falling sea level     The MBIE contract, held by GNS                Polar2018 Conference, in 2018.             Nature Geoscience, Geophysical
 ice sheet loss, its primary goal was to         offshore of Antarctic.                            between 2 and 3.3 million years ago. The       Science (and led by Richard Levy), had                                                   Research Letters, and Earth and
 identify what changes in the oceans                                                               Pliocene is a period of time when Earth’s      a significant sub-contract to the ARC         Examples of the achievements of the        Planetary Science Letters. Results from
 caused the WAIS to melt. Key questions          New Zealand joined IODP in 2008                   climate was warmer than present and            worth $3.7 million over eight years. In       programme include future projections       PAC research on ice sheet response to
 the scientists hope to answer are: how          through the Australia and New Zealand             Northern Hemisphere ice sheets were            September 2018, this sub-contract came        on what Antarctica may look like under     past intervals of higher than present
 warm did the oceans directly offshore           IODP Consortium (ANZIC). ANZIC is                 small or non-existent. For that reason,        to an end as MBIE established the new         various warming scenarios, improved        atmospheric CO2 concentrations were
 of Antarctica get before loss of the            funded by the Australian Research                 the frequency and magnitude of sea level       Antarctic Science Platform.                   understanding of the causes and            also included in an article published
 marine-based ice sheets occurred;               Council and other research organisations          in that period is a guide to the behaviour                                                   consequences of 21st century ice sheet     in the annual World Meteorological
 and did shifting oceanic currents push          and universities in Australia and New             of Antarctic’s ice sheets in a warmer          The approach of the PAC Programme has         melt, and improved understanding of        Organisation Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.
 warm waters, that currently exist further       Zealand; including GNS Science, NIWA,             world. More specifically, the evidence         been to integrate geological data with        ice sheet loss from the East Antarctic     The bulletin received exceptionally high
 north in the Southern Ocean, closer to          Victoria University of Wellington, the            suggests the part of Antarctica that is        numerical models grounded in a robust         Ice Sheet during past warm intervals.      coverage in major news outlets and
 the Antarctic ice sheets leading to their       University of Otago and the University            thought to be relatively stable today (the     understanding of modern processes in          Research conducted under the PAC           in many languages. So, although this
 retreat. It also anticipated the cores will     of Auckland. The scientific drilling ship         East Antarctic Ice Sheet) was actively         order to reconstruct how Antarctica’s ice     programme and its predecessor              programme comes to end for the ARC its
 answer fundamental questions about              JOIDES Resolution is funded by the US             expanding and contracting in the Pliocene.     sheets responded during past “warmer-         ANDRILL, are being integrated into         research legacy will continue to shape
 how, and when, the marine-based WAIS            National Science Foundation.                      The frequency of these changes is also         than-present” times, in order to provide      guidance documents including the           future research on the Antarctic.
 first formed, as well as determining what                                                         important because they tell us something       insights into future changes and their        recently published NZ Ministry for the
                                                 CONTACT: Robert.McKay@vuw.ac.nz                   about what is driving this instability. Some   global consequences.                          Environment – Coastal Hazards Strategy     CONTACT: Tim.Naish@vuw.ac.nz
                                                                                                   theories suggest direct melting (and                                                         and the Intergovernmental Panel on
                                                                                                   freezing) of ice in response to changing       The ARC team of researchers who worked        Climate Change 6th assessment report.
                 Laura De Santis and Rob McKay on board the Joides Resolution - Photo: Rob McKay
                                                                                                   incoming solar radiation (insolation;          on the programme include Tim Naish,           Knowledge of Ross Sea geology and
                                                                                                   as described by Milankovitch theory),          Peter Barrett, Lionel Carter, Gavin Dunbar,   glacial history generated through the
                                                                                                   whilst others highlight the importance of      Nick Golledge, and Andrew Mackintosh.         PAC programme were used to guide the
                                                                                                   warmer oceans nibbling away at marine          The team were also supported by Alex          science objectives of other programmes
                                                                                                   terminating glaciers and ice shelves (or       Pyne and Darcy Mandeno from the               such as the recently completed IODP
                                                                                                   some combination thereof). We hope             ARC’s Science Drilling Office. Within the     Expedition 374 co-led by Rob McKay.
                                                                                                   our conclusions on these topics will be        ARC, PAC fully/partially funded three         Furthermore, knowledge gained regarding
                                                                                                   published soon!                                PhD students (Hannah Chorley, Jamey           past, present, and future ice sheet

                                                                                                   CONTACT: Gavin.Dunbar@vuw.ac.nz

ARC Annual Review 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          13
ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
launch of the Antarctic
   Science platform
   2018 saw the launch of the                     flow, and the retrieval of stratigraphic
   Antarctic Science Platform, a                  records of past ice-sheet extent and
   Strategic Science Investment                   environmental conditions.
   Fund programme providing                       Antarctica New Zealand has been
   dedicated funding from MBIE.                   contracted to host and implement the
                                                  platform. The ARC is involved at multiple
   This exciting platform promises a new age      levels, with Nancy Bertler seconded
   of New Zealand led scientific exploration      to the platform directorship, Nick                                                                                                                                                         Applying research
   in the Antarctic. The broad goal of the        Golledge leading a platform-wide Future                                                                                                                                                    to inform a changing
   platform is to conduct excellent science       Projections advisory panel, Tim Naish
   to understand Antarctica’s impact on the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             world
                                                  leading the Previous Climate Experiments
   Earth system and how this might change         objective of Project 1, and Huw Horgan
   in a warming world. To accomplish this         Co-Investigator alongside Richard Levy
   the platform has established two central       (PI) leading Project 1. Platform funding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             The ARC provides advice on the
   work programmes: (1) The Antarctic ice-        for Project 1 begins 1 April 2019, with the                                                                                                                                                environmental impact of fibre-
   ocean-atmosphere system in a warming           first field campaign of direct access at                                                                                                                                                   optic cables.
   world, and (2) The Ross Sea region             the grounding zone of Kamb Ice Stream
   ecosystem dynamics in a warming world.         in the 2019/2020 season. We all look                                                                                                                                                       Currently, the United Nations is walking
   Each of these programmes consists              forward to the bounty of science that this                                                                                                          Electron microscope view of a diatom   a tightrope between the use and
   of two main projects, which broadly            platform will enable.                                                                                                                                                                      conservation of the marine environment
   cover the most important aspects of                                                                                                                                                                                                       as exists in international waters beyond
   the cryosphere as identified by a series       For more information visit:                                                                                                                                                                the legal boundaries of the Exclusive
   of workshops and consultation. Project
   1 addresses Antarctic Ice Dynamics:
                                                  http://www.antarcticanz.govt.nz/science/
                                                  antarctic-science-platform/                                                                       southern ocean                                                                           Economic Zone and Legal Continental
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Shelf. This zone, formally termed the
   Past, Present, and Future and includes
   an ambitious work plan of direct
                                                                                                                                                    sediments                                                                                Area Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ),
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             occupies ~65% of the ocean. It is now
   access beneath the West Antarctic Ice                                                                                                                                                                                                     coming under increasing pressure as
   Sheet. This will result in much-needed                                                                                                           Increases in carbon dioxide                to the surface, they ‘vent’ CO2 into the      human activities, such as seabed mining,
   observations of the controls on ice                    Cliff Atkins and Gavin Dunbar, Antarctica                                                                                            atmosphere, enhancing global warming          expand from shore. In that context, the
                                                                                 Photo: Dan Zwartz                                                  ‘venting’ from the Southern
                                                                                                                                                    Ocean.                                     and helping drive the termination of          ARC provides advice to the submarine
                                                                                                                                                                                               the last ice age. Melanie found a strong      cable industry. This group supplies the
                                                                                                                                                                                               relationship between biogenic silica          fibre-optic cables that underpin ~95% of
                                                                                                                                                    In 2018, MSc student Melanie Liston        production and the rate of increase in        global Internet traffic.
                                                                                                                                                    (co-supervised by Gavin Dunbar and         atmospheric CO2 during the past two
                                                                                                                                                    Helen Bostock, NIWA) completed             glacial terminations south of the APF.        Our advice provides a scientific basis
A busy year for the Organic                                                                                                                                                                    This suggests the venting of CO2 out of
                                                                                                                                                    her study of two sediment cores                                                          to guide discussions regarding the
Geochemistry Laboratory                                                                                                                             from the Antarctic Polar Front (APF)       the Southern Ocean was not a ‘one off’        environmental impact of laying and
                                                                                                                                                    region ~600S. Melanie found there          process at the end of the last ice age        maintaining fibre-optic cables in the ABNJ
Postdoctoral Fellow Bella                        and four summer research students utilise            VUW Organic Geochemistry Laboratory, as       are a systematic series of plankton        but part of an ongoing series of events       and elsewhere. Most recently a paper in
Duncan, together with Sebastian                  the laboratory to investigate projects as            well as helping students to learn and apply   productivity changes that recur            that recurs with each Pleistocene             Ocean Engineering by Christoph Kraus
Naeher at GNS Science, have                      diverse as the initiation of the Great Barrier       biomarker techniques.                         during glacial terminations. Biological    glacial termination.                          and Lionel Carter (2018) showed that
                                                 Reef, climate offshore Antarctica in the                                                           productivity of biogenic silica                                                          disturbance caused by burying fibre-optic
been developing the GNS/                         Miocene and Pliocene, and New Zealand                CONTACT: Bella.Duncan@vuw.ac.nz                                                          CONTACT: Gavin.Dunbar@vuw.ac.nz
                                                                                                                                                    (overwhelmingly diatoms) in particular                                                   cables beneath the seabed – a method
VUW Organic Geochemistry                         paleoenvironment over the last 14,000                                                              is linked to upwelling of nutrients from                                                 to protect cables from benthic fishing
Laboratory.                                      years. Among the compounds investigated                                                            deep in the Southern Ocean’s interior.                                                   – was temporary. Rates of physical and
                                                 are alkenones, which are used to                                                                   Along with nutrient elements (including                                                  biological recovery ranged from days to
This facility enables us to extract molecular    reconstruct past sea surface temperatures,                                                         silicon) comes carbon dioxide (CO2)                                                      decades, tending to take longer in deep
fossils known as biomarkers from samples         and plant waxes such as n-alkanes and                                                              in various dissolved forms that has                                                      water where current action is limited. A
and identify and quantify the different          fatty acids, which tell us about past                                                              accumulated from decaying organic                                                        companion study assessing the chemical
compounds present to investigate what            vegetation, hydroclimate and carbon cycle                                                          matter. So high is the abundance of                                                      and physical durability of cables, revealed
they can tell us about past climates. Now        changes.                                                                                           CO2 in the Southern Ocean’s depths                                                       them to be highly resilient. Most showed
that this facility is up and running it’s been                                                                                                      that when these waters are brought                                                       little degradation even though they had
a busy year in the laboratory.                   In 2018, Bella received a Rutherford                                                                                                                                                        resided on the seabed for up to 45 years.
                                                 Foundation Postdoctoral Fellowship (see                                                                                                                                                     That study will be published in 2019.
Over 2018 we’ve had two ARC Masters              page 25). This fellowship will enable her to
students, Rebecca Pretty and Nikita Turton,      continue developing and utilising the GNS/                                                                                                                                                  Next, is the effect of ocean/climate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             change on the fibre-optic network. This
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             takes advantage of the ARC’s expertise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             with respect to sea-level rise, storminess
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             and sediment density flows.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             CONTACT: Lionel.Carter@vuw.ac.nz

ARC Annual Review 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    15
ANTARCTIC RESEARCH CENTRE Annual Review 2018 - Victoria University of Wellington
Extending historic
                                                                                                 glacier length
                                                                                                 records using
                                                                                                 cosmogenic exposure
                                                                                                 dating
                                                                                                 Retreating mountain glaciers
                                                                                                 are prominent icons of present-
                                                                                                 day climate change, due to their
                                                                                                 acute sensitivity to changes in air
                                                                                                 temperature.

                                                                                                 Glacier forelands often contain rich                                                                          Sea wall protecting the town of Granity, West Coast from sea-level rise - Photo: Tim Naish
                                                                                                 geological evidence of former ice extents,
                       Brian Anderson undertaking a snowline survey - Photo: Dave Allen (NIWA)   in the form of landforms such as moraines,
                                                                                                 which document how glaciers have varied in
                                                                                                 size over the past few centuries to millennia.      NZ SeaRise Programme on the rise!
 Glacier snowline Surveys: A new                                                                 These archives offer the potential to extend
                                                                                                 our understanding of how glaciers, and thus         The New Zealand SeaRise                         rise. Namely, by improving estimates               with local authority partners (Otago
 approach and the end of an era                                                                  climate, have changed over timescales that
                                                                                                 exceed instrumental climate measurements.
                                                                                                                                                     programme, aims to produce                      of polar ice sheet melt and accounting
                                                                                                                                                                                                     the significant influence of vertical land
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Regional Council, Greater Wellington
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Regional Council, Hawke Bay Regional
                                                                                                 However, achieving precise dates for these
                                                                                                                                                     improved location specific                      movements around the New Zealand                   Council) and Iwi (Ngati Kahugnunu), to
                                                without anthropogenic climate change?                                                                predictions of sea-level rise to
 Since 2015, the ARC has                                                                         young glacial landforms has, until recently,
                                                                                                                                                     2100 and beyond.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     coastline. The latest estimates of polar           understand the impact of the sea-level
 taken part in the annual ‘end                                                                   proved difficult.                                                                                   ice sheet and glacier melt, ocean thermal          projections on coastal flooding and storm
                                                The 2017/2018 summer may have                                                                                                                        expansion, land water storage, vertical            surge recurrence, groundwater salination
 of summer snowline survey’.
                                                been a step change in the loss of New            In recent work funded by the National               Richard Levy took over leadership of            land movements, ocean dynamics are                 and inundation, and coastal estuarine
 This project was initiated                     Zealand’s glacier ice, but there is no           Geographic/Waitt Program, we have applied           the programme, from Tim Naish, when             being combined within a probabilistic              environments. Ultimately our projections
 by Trevor Chinn way back in                    doubt about the heavy loss to the snow           cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure dating             he was appointed Associate Professor            framework using international best-                will strengthen national policy statements
 1978, and has been run by                      and ice research community with the              to produce precise dates for pre-historic           (0.2 FTE) at the ARC in November                practice methodology of our USA                    and hazards planning guidance
 NIWA since the 1990s.                          death of Trevor Chinn in December                moraines at Dart Glacier in the Southern            2018. Tim remains in a leadership               collaborator, Bob Kopp (Rutgers                    documents (e.g. MfE, LGNZ, DOC), and
                                                2018. Trevor’s persistence in the face           Alps. This technique utilises concentrations        role joining Rob Bell (NIWA) and Nick           University). We hope to have a preliminary         scientifically robust local projections will
 ARC’s role, working with Drew Lorrey           of adverse weather, retreating glaciers,         of the rare isotope, 10Be, which builds             Golledge as project leaders. We have            set of projections for NZ tide gauges              strengthen the statutory mandate for
 (NIWA), has been two-fold: to upgrade          and obstructive bureaucrats has left             up in glacial sediments over time due to            made significant progress towards               for a range of future climate scenarios            adaptation decision-making.
 the information collected during the           an incredible legacy of facts, figures,          interaction with cosmic radiation. To date          reducing global and local uncertainties         by the end of 2019. As the science is
 flights; and to re-process images taken        and photos of New Zealand’s glaciers             landforms deposited by Dart Glacier just            that affect our ability to predict sea-level    evolving, we are developing case studies           CONTACT: Richard.Levy@vuw.ac.nz
 since 1978 to extract more and higher          that simply would not exist without              a few centuries ago, we collaborated with
 quality data from the existing historic        his inquisitive and unique brand of              Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
 archive.                                       glaciology.                                      in the USA, who have the capability in
                                                                                                 accelerator mass spectrometry to resolve
 Brewster Glacier, which the ARC has            As an example, the original glacier              such small 10Be concentrations. Our results      lake ohau layering                                                                                                       Unconformity possibily caused by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        earthquake shaking ~3300 years ago
 been measuring since 2004 with                 inventory, started in 1978, was almost           show a prominent advance of Dart Glacier
 colleagues from University of Otago, was       lost when Trevor’s boss in the 1980s             that culminated at the end of the 17th
 the first target of this work. PhD student,    informed him one Friday that he was              century. This new data extends the relatively
                                                                                                                                                  Sediment layering reveals                         shown we can identify ‘mast’ years (years
 Lauren Vargo, used new photogrammetry          going to ‘delete the tapes on Monday’            rich observational record of Dart Glacier,       frequency of environmental                        of greatly enhanced seed production) from
 techniques and published a reanalysis          even though, after years of work,                which was first mapped in 1915, and              events such as earthquakes,                       the abundance of pollen extracted from
 of the snowline and terminus position          the inventory of 3144 glaciers was               provides a useful target for future numerical    flooding and beech ‘masting’.                     the sediment. Abundant food from Beech
 record of this glacier in 2017.                essentially complete. Trevor paid one of         modelling experiments in which we seek                                                             forest masting in particular leads to a huge
                                                his colleagues to work all weekend to            to determine the geological precedence of        The ARC’s Gavin Dunbar and collegues              growth in predator populations that turn
 The record-setting heat of the                 print out the inventory. Sure enough the         recent glacier retreat in the Southern Alps.     continue to advance work on the detailed          on native fauna as the supply of seeds run
 2017/2018 summer, associated with              tapes were deleted and the inventory                                                              stratigraphy of the Lake Ohau cores with          out if they are not actively managed. The
 a marine heat wave in the Tasman               only lives on through that epic printing         CONTACT: Shaun.Eaves@vuw.ac.nz                   recent publications in Scientific Drilling and    long pollen timeseries available from Ohau
 Sea, resulted in the highest snowlines         session.                                                                                          Quaternary Science Reviews (Levy, et al.,         sediments includes periods of the past
 ever recorded. More than half of the                                                                                                             2018 and Vandergoes, et al., 2018). Much          both warmer and cooler than today and
 measured glaciers had no snow cover            Trevor’s approach has rubbed off                                                                  effort has gone into a quantitive method to       examining the frequency and magnitude of
 left at all. This is a crisis point for a      on many of the next generation of                                                                 count the annual layers evident in the core       masting events in the past will help us gain
 glacier, because glaciers are replenished      glaciologists, ensuring that his legacy                                                           x-rays (with assistance from Euan Smith,          a better understanding of the climatic cues
 solely by winter snow that survives the        will live on. As Trevor said in one of his                                                        SGEES) and we now have a layer-counted            that help trigger them. We also know that
 summer melt.                                   last interviews “glaciers don’t lie”. And                                                         stratigraphy for our lower sedimentation          major flood events deposit anomalously
                                                while this is true, he loved that glaciers                                                        site that extends back ~5000 years. The           thick layers of fine sediment – up to
 The marine heat wave, hot summer,              could also confound common sense,                                                                 record is interrupted by a disturbed interval     three times the annual average and layer
 and subsequent record high snowlines           as Franz Josef Glacier/Kā Roimata o                                                               dated to 3300 years before present that           counting enables us to identify these years.
 received a lot of media attention in           Hine Hukatere did in 2017/2018 by                                                                 appears to correlate with the last known          Long term trends (if any) in the frequency
 2018. Behind the scenes Lauren and her         advancing during the hottest summer on                                                            movement on the Ostler Fault that passes          of these beech masting events and major
 colleagues are extending the snowline          record.                                                                                           south of the lake.                                floods is the current focus of our research,
 photo analysis and working to answer                                                                                                                                                               now the ground work has been done.
 the question - could this particular year’s    https://niwa.co.nz/videos/glaciers-dont-lie                                                       Layer counting is important not only for
 record loss of glacier ice have happened                                                                                                         dating the core, but also for examining the       CONTACT: Gavin.Dunbar@vuw.ac.nz
                                                CONTACT: Brian.Anderson@vuw.ac.nz
                                                                                                                                                  stratigraphy in great detail. For example,
                                                                                                                                                  Joe Prebble and Xun Li (GNS Science) have
ARC Annual Review 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      17
science
                                drilling
                                office
                                The Science Drilling Office (SDO)                A major aspect of our continuing Hot
                                is currently preparing for future                Water Drilling programme has been the
                                programmes on the ice.                           unsatisfactory performance of the diesel
                                                                                 generators that support this operation.
                                                                                 In 2018, the SDO temporarily contracted
                                The SDO is hosted in the ARC and led by          Jeff Rawson, who has previously worked
                                Alex Pyne SDO Director and ARC Projects          with us for several Antarctic field seasons,
                                Manager, along with Darcy Mandeno                to review options for field generator
                                as Operations and Field Engineer. SDO            replacement in 2019. The issue is cold
                                activities in 2018 have not included             temperature operations and use of aviation
                                a 2018-19 field season in Antarctica,            kerosene replacing diesel fuel. Jeff found
                                which has been a welcome break, and              replacement engine options, we secured
                                has allowed the team to start addressing         CAPEX for 2019, and will be repowering
                                housekeeping issues that are becoming            the generators with larger lower technology
                                increasingly problematic as we continue to       Duetz engines better rated for kerosene
                                support equipment and logistics-heavy field      based fuels.
                                activities in Antarctica.
                                                                                 In the second half of the year Alex started
                                Over the 2017/2018 summer our small              working on the concept for a new “light
                                warehouse and workshop facility at the           weight” drilling capability to access marine
                                Karori Campus was moved to new leased            geological sea floor record beneath ice
                                premises in Lower Hutt. The relatively small     shelves. The concept for this drilling
                                space                                            capability is to complement and integrate
                                (133 m²) required several weeks of               with our successful Hot Water Drilling
                                reorganisation but is now a compact and          operations and be initially deployed as part
                                functional facility designed to enable us to     of the Ross Ice Shelf project and Antarctic
                                better service and repair equipment in New       Platform programme. We anticipate that
                                Zealand primarily in preparation for annual      the CAPEX funding, design, procurement
                                Antarctic field activities. Our operational      and manufacture to be carried out in
                                model still requires larger equipment to         2019 -2021 for first drilling in the 2021-22
                                be purchased and constructed out-of-             Antarctic season.
                                house under our leadership in design and
                                innovation.                                      CONTACT: Alex.Pyne@vuw.ac.nz

                                Darcy is developing a practical field-friendly
                                way to inventory and track our increasingly
                                complex range of field equipment that
                                at any time may be wintered in a remote
                                locations in Antarctica, stored at Scott
                                Base, in transit, or being stored and
                                serviced at the workshop.

Photo: www.neilsilverwood.com
ARC Annual Review 2018                                                                                                          19
TEACHING &
                         SUPERVISION
                         Our staff support a wide range of teaching being carried
                         out within the School of Geography Environment and Earth
                         Sciences.

                         The ARC supports a significant proportion         lectures in both undergraduate and
                         of the research being carried out in the          graduate courses as well as supervision
                         paleoclimatology theme through teaching           of graduate students enrolled with the
                         and graduate supervision. There is also a         School of Geography, Environment and
                         close interaction between ARC staff and           Earth Sciences (SGEES). In 2018, our staff
                         projects with other research programmes           supervised 16 PhD and
                         in geophysics, geology, physical geography,       7 MSc students and contributed to the
                         and the environmental studies programme.          following courses:
                         Our teaching contribution includes

                         Courses we taught in
                          ESCI 111       The Earth System: An Introduction
                          ESCI 132       Antarctica: Unfreezing the Continent
                          ESCI 201       Climate Change and New Zealand’s Future
                          ESCI 204       Petrology and Microscopy
                          GEOG 220       Hydrology and Climate
                          ESCI 241       Introductory Field Geology
                          ENSC 301       Topics in Environmental Science
                          ESCI 301*      Global Change: Earth Processes and History
                          GEOG 321       Ice and Climate
                          GEOG 325       Field Methods
                          ESCI 403*      Stratigraphy and Palaeoenvironments
                          ESCI 404*      Topics in Earth Sciences
                          ESCI 412*      Paleoclimatology
                          PHYG 414       Climate Change: Lessons from the Past
                          ESCI 580       Research Preparation

                         * An ARC staff member was the course co-ordinator

                         Graduate completions
                         Georgia Grant (PhD)                               Karsten Lorentz (MSc)
                         “Pliocene glacial-interglacial sea-level          “Bedrock to soil: In-situ measurement and
                         change.”                                          analytical techniques for initial weathering
                         Supervised by Tim Naish and Gavin Dunbar          of proglacial environments.”
                         (ARC).                                            Supervised by Kevin Norton (SGEES) and
                                                                           Brian Anderson (ARC).
                         Melanie Liston (MSc)
                         “Glacial-interglacial productivity in the Polar
                         Frontal Zone, southwest Pacific Ocean.”
                         Supervised by Helen Bostock (NIWA) and
                         Gavin Dunbar (ARC).
Photo: Peter Barrett
ARC Annual Review 2018                                                                                                    21
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