Automotive Council & the Electrification Transformation - Prof. Neville Jackson Dep. Chair, Auto Council Technology Group Chair, APC Advisory ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Automotive Council & the
Electrification Transformation
Prof. Neville Jackson
Dep. Chair, Auto Council Technology Group
Chair, APC Advisory Group
Chief Technology & Innovation Officer, Ricardo plc
www.automotivecouncil.co.uk
UK Automotive Council: Structure & Approach
■ The Automotive Council was formed in 2009
■ To strengthen and promote sustainable growth of the automotive sector in the UK through enhanced dialogue and co-operation
between UK government and the automotive industry
■ Membership is made up of senior figures from across industry, government, trade association and trade unions
■ Through the Council, industry works in partnership with government to support innovation, create the right business
environment and to ensure that the UK remains an open economy
One UK Team
Business
Creating Insight Environment
& Skills
Establishing
Strategy
Supply
Technology
Chain
Driving
Implementation
A continuous value creation cycle involving all facets of the Automotive Council
Advanced Propulsion Centre & Mapping the road ahead
• The Advanced Propulsion Centre:
– £1b investment by Industry & Government to
commercialise future low carbon propulsion
technologies
• The Automotive Council’s roadmaps:
– visualize the evolving automotive landscape
– communicate a shared view of the future.
• Latest APC roadmaps Signpost
– short, medium and long term challenges in R&D
– where investment is required
– potential collaborative opportunities
• Stephenson Challenge
ISCF Bid - £96m (+£125m loans)
Manufacture of £5b worth
of e-Drives By 2025
‘Towards 2040: A Guide to Automotive Propulsion Technologies’ Launched, July 18
Faraday challenge addresses well defined targets via three defined initiatives
The Faraday Challenge: an investment of £246 million over 4 years
Faraday Institution
Countering Degradation
Solid State Batteries
Multi-Scale Modelling
Developing A Circular
Economy
Feasibility Studies
Technology Challenges
Business Models
National Battery
Research & Development Manufacturing
Materials & Manufacturing Development Facility
Faraday Battery Challenge
Day 1 Diversified Products
12th September
10:45 – 12:00 & Services
Main Plenary Hall
Leading proposition for battery technology Research, Development & Scale-up
A rapidly growing UK market for batteries & rapid technological change
NB: Battery Giga-factory ~ $4-5b capex investment each – 6-7 needed in Europe by 2030
Environmental challenges/policies have accelerated Vehicle OEM
commitments to introduce more electrified vehicles & larger batteries
To launch first Plan joint EV
electrified platforms
products on Targets 1M sales of
Efficient electrified vehicles EV Versions of
Modular all 300 models
Platform in Group
(EMP) First full EV 20 new all- 50% of
Model 3 10 electric electric and Plans 15-25% of All vehicles will production to
enters All models to “EQ” models HFC models sales to be electric
volume be electrified be hybrid be EV’s
production
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
13 new electrified
To produce All models 40% of
models Expects 15-25% of Expects 2/3rds
0.5M will be global
models to be electrified Plans to sell of models to be
electrified electrified models will
Expects 50% 1M electric electrified
vehicles be electrified
of models to vehicles per
To have 7 PHEV be electric annum
and 4 BEV models Plans 80 new EV
on EMP models accounting for 25% vehicles
up to 25% of sales will be electric
100 mile range 150-200 mile range 200-250 mile range 300+ mile range
HFC = hydrogen fuel cell Battery capacity/range
© Ricardo plc 2018 Unclassified - Public Domain October 2018 6
Battery chemistries will continue to evolve but major steps forward at
least a decade away for the volume market
Gasoline, Diesel,
Potential Addressable Market (%)
Li-Air Li-ion
200 Wh/kg 12 Kerosene, Biomass
100
Adv. Li-ion 450 Wh/l to Liquids
O2 (+) 350 Wh/kg
Li (-) 750 Wh/l HVO (Biodiesel)
NMC (+)
80 Graphite (-) 10
NMC (+)
C-Si (-) FAME (Biodiesel)
Solid State
60 500 Wh/kg NMC (+)
1000 Wh/l Li (-) 8 Ethanol
40
Li-S
400 Wh/kg LNG incl. tank
450 Wh/l
20 LMP 6 Coal?
S (+) 150 Wh/kg LFP (+)
Li (-) 400 Wh/l Li (-)
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
4
Technology Readiness Level CNG (250 bar)
> 10 years 5-10 years < 5 years Today 2 including tank
Time to Market Introduction H2 (700 bar)
including tank
NMC = Nickel Manganese Cobalt LFP = Lithium Iron Phosphate
LMP = Lithium Metal Polymer Li-S = Lithium Sulphur 0 Li-ion Batteries
LMO = Lithium Manganese Oxide NCA = Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxide Energy Density (kW.hr/kg)
Source: EMIRI (Tank sized for HD truck)
© Ricardo plc 2018 October 2018 7
Ultra Low or Zero carbon HD trucks – probably a choice between H2
Fuel cells with renewable hydrogen or Bio-Waste/Power to Liquid Fuels
800 kW.h ~ 38,000 Cells 320 kW.hr ~ 15,000 cells
Renewable
Electricity
to Liquid
Fuels
12 kW.hr
H2 Fuel Cell Trucks – Toyota/Nikola Motors < > Renewable “Synthetic” Fuels
© Ricardo plc 2018 October 2018 8
Grid voltage levels and charging times for 250+ mile range 85 kW.hr
battery – to charge at >15 miles/hour need three phase supply
24 UK Grid
Grid connection also depends
connection
7 miles on # points / location
/hour
18 Higher power capability chargers need to
Low voltage single
Charge time (hours)
connect to the medium voltage grid to
deliver sufficient usable energy in minutes; phase 220V
Will
multiple chargers may share one
connection Wireless
12
15-20 Charging
miles/hour Disrupt this
System?
Low voltage three
6 Phase 415V
50 miles/hour
200-500
100 miles/hour 11kV Med voltage
miles/hour
80%*
0
50%* 33kV Med voltage
Slow Medium Fast Rapid Ultrafast
Up to 3.5kW 7kW 22kW Up to 50kW 90 – 350kW
Charging rate
urce: Ricardo analysis * = charge level within charging time from low State of Charge
© Ricardo plc 2018 October 2018 9
Network reinforcement required beyond 15-20% EV penetration to
deliver adequate EV re-charge power will be significant*
Generation • Capital costs for re-enforcing EU EV charging
Transmission
Network 400 kV / 275 kV infrastructure & charge facilities for predominantly EV
passenger cars & van parc:
Grid Supply Point
Extra High Voltage – €630 billion assuming primarily “home” charging
Network EHV (132 kV)
Bulk Supply Point
– €830 billion assuming “grazing” frequent top-up
High Voltage (HV)
HV (33 kV – 22 kV) • Based on “Smart” network with charge periods selected
Network
to minimise local network loads
Primary Substation
Medium Voltage (MV)
Network
MV (11 kV – 10 kV)
Only a small part of total road transport costs
Secondary Substation including vehicles and energy but who pays for this?
Low Voltage (LV) LV (400 V three phase
Distribution Network - 230 V single phase)
Ref: Impact Analysis of Mass EV Adoption – Ricardo
Significant Re-enforcement Required Defossilizing the transportation sector - FVV
Source: The Energy Technologies Institute & *Household Electricity Survey - A study of domestic electrical product usage Intertek Report R66141
© Ricardo plc 2018 October 2018 10Auto Industry concerned that Infrastructure will limit market penetration
– Supply/Network operators assume a more demand led approach
Automotive Industry Challenge: Electricity Supply Challenge:
• To achieve EV market uptake, need larger • Investment in networks and charging facilities
batteries/longer range and improved responsive and based on demand
charging availability • Local network issues will be resolved by
• Need to invest in more charging infrastructure demand control and strategic positioning of
to encourage EV purchase recharge facilities
Need economies of scale to be commercially viable No significant impact from EV take-up by 2030
Source: Ricardo Analysis, UK OLEV, Role of the power sector for Electromobility - Iberdrola
© Ricardo plc 2017 October 2018 11You can also read
