BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT
BE PREPARED:
CLIMATE
CHANGE AND
THE SOUTH
AUSTRALIA
BUSHFIRE
THREAT

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT
Authorship:
Professor Lesley Hughes
Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited
ISBN:    978-0-9941866-1-4 (print)
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Be Prepared: climate change and the South Australia bushfire threat
by Professor Lesley Hughes (Climate Council of Australia).

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                  Professor Lesley Hughes
                  Climate Councillor
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT
Introduction
     Residents of South Australia have           We first describe the background
     experienced the serious consequences        context of fire and its history in South
     of bushfires. In 2005 the Black Tuesday     Australia. We then outline the link
     bushfires on the Eyre Peninsula             between bushfires and climate change,
     resulted in the tragic loss of nine lives   before considering how bushfire danger
     and estimated damages of $41 million        weather is increasing in South Australia
     (2011$). At the beginning of 2014 several   and what this means for the immediate
     bushfires raged across the state, burning   future. We explore the impacts of fire
     tens of thousands of hectares of land,      on people, property, water supply and
     destroying properties and injuring          biodiversity, before considering the
     firefighters and residents.                 future influence of climate change on
                                                 bushfires, and the implications for South
     Australians have always lived with
                                                 Australian fire managers, planners and
     fire and its consequences, but climate
                                                 emergency services.
     change is increasing fire danger weather
     and thus the risk of fires. It is time to
     think very seriously about the risks that
     future fires will pose.

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU                                                                        Page 1
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT

              Key Findings
              1. Climate change is already                  ›› The fire season will continue to
                 increasing the risk of                        lengthen into the future, straining
                 bushfires in South Australia.                 South Australia’s existing resources
                                                               for fighting and managing fires.
                ›› Extreme fire weather has increased
                   over the last 30 years in South        3. Recent severe fires in
                   Australia.                                South Australia have been
                                                             influenced by record hot,
                ›› Australia is a fire prone country
                                                             dry conditions.
                   and South Australia has always
                   experienced bushfires. Today             ›› Record breaking heat and hotter
                   climate change is making hot                weather over the long term in
                   days hotter, and heatwaves                  South Australia has worsened
                   longer and more frequent, with              fire weather and contributed to
                   increasing drought conditions in            an increase in the frequency and
                   Australia’s southeast. The hotter,          severity of bushfires.
                   drier conditions are increasing the      ›› In January 2005, temperatures of
                   risk of high fire danger weather in         over 40°C contributed to severe
                   South Australia.                            bushfires on the Eyre Peninsula,
                ›› 2013 was South Australia’s hottest          which resulted in the tragic loss of
                   year on record and in Adelaide the          nine lives and estimated damages
                   average intensity of heatwaves              of $41 million (2011$).
                   has increased by 2.5°C. These          4. The total economic costs of
                   conditions are driving up the             the South Australian bushfires
                   likelihood of very high fire danger       in 2014 are projected to be
                   weather in the state.                     $44 million. By around the
              2. The fire season in South                    middle of the century these
                 Australia is starting earlier               cost will almost double.
                 and lasting longer. Fire                   ›› Bushfires cause significant
                 weather has been extending                    economic damage, estimated at
                 into Spring and Autumn.                       $337 million per year (2011$) in
                ›› This year, the bushfire season              Australia. With a forecast growth
                   will start early in seven of fifteen        in costs of 2.2% annually between
                   districts in South Australia. These         2014 and 2050, the total economic
                   districts include the Eastern Eyre          cost of bushfires is expected to
                   Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, the             reach $800 million annually by
                   Lower South East, the Mount Lofty           mid-century. In South Australia
                   Ranges, the North East Pastoral,            bushfires are projected to cost
                   Riverland and the West Coast.               $44 million in 2014 (2011$).

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT
›› These state and national                ›› Increased resources for our
          projections do not incorporate             emergency services and fire
          increased bushfire incident rates          management agencies will be
          due to climate change and could            required as fire risk increases. By
          potentially be much higher.                2030, it has been estimated that the
                                                     number of professional firefighters in
     5. In the future, South Australia
                                                     Australia will need to approximately
        is very likely to experience
                                                     double (compared to 2010) to keep
        an increased number of days
                                                     pace with increased population, asset
        with extreme fire danger.
                                                     value, and fire danger weather.
        Communities, emergency
        services and health services           6. This is the critical decade
        across South Australia must               ›› Australia must strive to cut emissions
        prepare.                                     rapidly and deeply to join global
       ›› Fire severity and intensity is             efforts to stabilise the world’s climate
          expected to increase substantially         and to reduce the risk of even more
          in coming decades, especially              extreme events, including bushfires.
          in those regions currently most
          affected by bushfires, and where
          a substantial proportion of the
          Australian population lives, such
          as South Australia.

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU                                                                           Page 3
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT

            1. The nature of bushfires
              Fire has been a feature of the Australian      75 and 100 considered ‘extreme’. The
              environment for at least 65 million years      unprecedented ferocity of the 2009 Black
              (Cary et al. 2012). Human management of        Saturday bushfires in Victoria saw a new
              fires also has a long history, starting with   ‘catastrophic’ category added to the FFDI
              fire use by indigenous Australians (“fire-     for events exceeding the existing scale.
              stick farming”) up to 60,000 years ago.
                                                             The concept of “fire regimes” is
              Between 3% and 10% of Australia’s land
                                                             important for understanding the
              area burns every year (Western Australian
                                                             nature of bushfires in Australia, and
              Land Information Authority 2013).
                                                             for assessing changes in fire behaviour
              In Australia, the Forest Fire Danger           caused by both human and climatic
              Index (FFDI) is used to measure the            factors (Figure 2). A fire regime describes
              degree of risk of fire in our forests          a recurrent pattern of fire, with the most
              (Luke and Macarthur 1978). The                 important characteristics being the
              Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and fire           frequency, intensity, and seasonality
              management agencies use the FFDI               of the fire. Significant changes in any
              to assess fire risk and issue warnings.        of these features of a fire regime can
              The index was originally designed on a         have a very important influence on
              scale from 0 to 100, with fires between        its ecological and economic impacts
                                                             (Williams et al. 2009).

              Figure 1: A Firefighter at work in South Australia

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT
01
                                                     THE NATURE OF BUSHFIRES IN AUSTRALIA

                                                                         Figure 4. Main factors affecting bushfires

           Main factors                                                                    3 | People
                                                                  Fires may be deliberately started
                                                                  (arson) or be started by accident

           affecting                                              (e.g. by powerline fault). Human
                                                                     activities can also reduce fire,
                                                                       either by direct suppression

           bushfires                                                     or by reducing fuel load by
                                                                                 prescribed burning

           1 | Ignition
           Fires can be started
           by lightning or
           people, either
           deliberately or
           accidentally

           2 | Fuel
           Fires need fuel of
           sufficient quantity &
           dryness. A wet year creates
           favourable conditions
           for vegetation growth. If                                                    4 | Weather
           this is followed by a dry                    Fires are more likely to spread on hot, dry,
           season or year, fires are                   windy days. Hot weather also dries out fuel,
           more likely to spread and                            favouring fire spread and intensity
           become intense

     FigureCLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
            2: Main Factors Affecting Bushfires                                                     Page 6

     Fire is a complex process that is very        of weather that affect fire and fuels are
     variable in space and time. A fire needs to   temperature, precipitation, wind and
     be started (ignition), it needs something     humidity. Once a fire is ignited, very
     to burn (fuel) and it needs conditions        hot days with low humidity and high
     that are conducive to its spread (weather     winds are conducive to its spread. The
     and topography) (see Figure 2). Fire          type, amount, and moisture level of fuel
     activity is strongly influenced by            available are also critical determinants
     weather, fuel, terrain, ignition agents       of fire behaviour, extent and intensity.
     and people. The most important aspects        The relationship between rainfall and

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU                                                                                                 Page 5
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT

              fuel is complex. Wet seasons can lead         about every 5 to 30 years, with spring
              to increased plant growth and therefore       and summer being peak fire season
              increase fuel buildup in the months or        (Clarke et al. 2011; Bradstock et al. 2012).
              years before a fire is ignited (Bradstock     People are also a very important
              et al. 2009). Warmer temperatures and         component of the fire equation.
              low rainfall in the period immediately        Many fires are either deliberately or
              preceding an ignition, however, can lead      accidentally lit, and in places where
              to drier vegetation and soil, making the      population density is high, the
              existing fuel more flammable. Warmer          probability of a fire igniting increases
              temperatures can also be associated           close to roads and settlements (Willis
              with a higher incidence of lightning          2005; Penman et al. 2013). Some of
              activity (Jayaratne and Kuleshov, 2006),      Australia’s most catastrophic bushfires
              increasing the risk of ignition.              have been ignited by powerline faults.
              As fire weather conditions become more        But people also play an important role
              severe, fuel moisture content declines,       in reducing fire risk, by vegetation
              making the fuel more flammable. By            management including prescribed
              contrast, in arid regions, vegetation         burning to reduce fuel load and
              and thus fuel in most years is sparsely       conducting fire suppression activities.
              distributed and fires, if ignited, rarely     Interventions such as total fire ban
              spread far. In Australia’s southeast, fires   days also play a pivotal role in reducing
              are common in the heathlands and dry          ignitions under dangerous fire
              sclerophyll forests, typically occurring      conditions (Climate Council 2014a).

              Figure 3: A bushfire near Adelaide

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT
South Australia is no stranger to bushfires.   In 2005 the Black Tuesday bushfires
     The state has been affected by bushfires       burnt approximately 82,000 hectares and
     throughout history. In 1983 the Ash            resulted in 110 injuries and the loss of
     Wednesday fires in Victoria and South          nine lives (AEM 2014b). More recently, the
     Australia led to the loss of 75 lives, the     2011-2012 fire season saw over 5 million
     destruction of over 2,300 homes and            hectares of land burnt and at the start of
     had an estimated cost of $307 million          2014, several significant bushfires burnt
     (2011$) in South Australia (AEM 2014a).        over 100,000 hectares and resulted in
                                                    24 injuries (SACFS 2014a).

     2. W
         hat is the link
        between bushfires
        and climate change?

     Figure 4: An outback fire in Renmark SA

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU                                                                            Page 7
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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT

              A fire needs to be started (ignition), it needs   very high fire danger weather (see Section
              something to burn (fuel) and it needs             3). The 2005 Black Tuesday bushfires on
              conditions that are conducive to its spread       the Eyre Peninsula illustrate the role of
              (weather) (Section 1). Climate change             weather conditions in affecting fire severity.
              can affect all of these factors in both           In January 2005, temperatures of over
              straightforward and more complex ways.            40°C contributed to ferocious bushfires
                                                                on the Peninsula, with heat from the fire
              The role of climate change in ignition
                                                                exceeding 1000°C and wind speeds of up to
              is likely to be relatively small compared
                                                                100 km per hour. The fires burnt 82,000 ha
              to the fuel and weather, but may still
                                                                and resulted in 110 injuries and the loss of
              be significant. For example, lightning
                                                                nine lives. The Insurance Council
              accounts for ~27% of the ignitions in
                                                                of Australia estimated total damages of
              the Sydney region (Bradstock 2008) and
                                                                $41 million (2011$) (AEM 2014b).
              the incidence of lightning is sensitive
              to weather conditions, including                  It is important to note that climate change
              temperature (Jayaratne and Kuleshov               is already increasing the intensity and
              2006). Climate change can also affect             frequency of some extreme events such
              fuel. For example, a lack of rainfall can         as very hot days and droughts. The
              dry out the soil and vegetation, making           strength of trends and the confidence
              existing fuel more combustible. But               in their attribution, however, varies
              whilst climate change can affect ignition         between regions and between different
              and fuel, it is the impact of climate             types of event (IPCC 2012; 2013; 2014).
              change on weather that has the most               Extreme weather events, like bushfires,
              significant influence on fire activity            are influenced by a number of different
              (Climate Council 2014a).                          factors. That’s why asking if a weather
                                                                event is “caused” by climate change
              Very hot, dry and windy days create very
                                                                is the wrong question. All extreme
              high bushfire risk. The most direct link
                                                                weather events are now being influenced
              between bushfires and climate change
                                                                by climate change because they are
              therefore comes from the relationship
                                                                occurring in a climate system that is
              between the long-term trend towards
                                                                hotter and moister than it was 50 years
              a warmer climate due to increasing
                                                                ago (Trenberth 2012). The latest IPCC
              greenhouse gas emissions – the increasing
                                                                report confirms with high confidence that
              amount of heat in the atmosphere – and
                                                                climate change is expected to increase
              the incidence of very hot days. Put simply,
                                                                the number of days with very high and
              climate change is increasing the frequency
                                                                extreme fire weather, particularly in
              and severity of very hot days (IPCC 2012;
                                                                southern Australia (IPCC 2014).
              2013), and is driving up the likelihood of

              Climate change is expected to increase the
              number of days with very high and extreme fire
              weather, particularly in southern Australia

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3. O
         bservations of
        changing bushfire
        danger weather in
        South Australia
     Increasing hot days, heatwaves and           record set in 2009 (BoM 2014; Climate
     rainfall deficiencies in South Australia     Council 2014b). Heatwaves in South
     are driving up the likelihood of very high   Australia are also increasing in
     fire danger weather in the state.            frequency, intensity and duration. For
                                                  example, in Adelaide from 1951-2011 the
     While hot weather has always been
                                                  average intensity of heatwaves has
     common in Australia’s southeast, it has
                                                  increased by 2.5°C (Climate Council
     become more common and severe over
                                                  2014b). The IPCC projects with virtual
     the past few decades, including in South
                                                  certainty that warming in Australia will
     Australia (see Figure 6). The southeast of
                                                  continue throughout the 21st century
     Australia has experienced significant
                                                  and predicts with high confidence that
     warming during the last 50 years (Timbal
                                                  bushfire danger weather will increase in
     et al. 2012). 2013 was the hottest year on
                                                  most of southern Australia, including
     record both nationally and in South
                                                  South Australia (IPCC 2014).
     Australia and mean temperatures in the
     state were 0.41°C above the previous

     Figure 5: Burned vineyards in South Australia

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU                                                                        Page 9
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT

              Figure 6: South Australia increasing heat (Australian Bureau of Meteorology). Blue
              bars indicate years where annual temperatures were below average, and red bars
              indicate years of above average temperatures.

              Much of eastern Australia has become          (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC
              drier since the 1970s, with the southeast     2014). Long-term rainfall deficits across
              experiencing a drying trend due to            southern Australia, coupled with above
              declines in rainfall combined with            average temperatures, have reduced soil
              increased temperatures (BoM 2013;             moisture and dried heavy fuels in forests,
              Climate Commission 2013). Since the           increasing bushfire potential in parts of
              mid-1990s, southeast Australia has            South Australia (Bushfire and Natural
              experienced a 15 percent decline in late      Hazards CRC 2014). It is very likely that
              autumn and early winter rainfall and a        an increased incidence of drought in the
              25 percent decline in average rainfall        southeast - coupled with consecutive hot
              in April and May (CSIRO & BoM 2014).          and dry days - will in turn result in longer
              Much of Australia was drier than normal       fire seasons and an ever larger number
              from mid-2012 with record low July to         of days of extreme fire danger in coming
              December rainfall across Central South        decades (e.g. Clarke et al. 2011; 2013).
              Australia (Climate Council 2014b). Rainfall
              since May 2014 has tended to be below
              average across northern South Australia

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The concept of a ‘normal’ bushfire season
     is rapidly changing as bushfires continue to
     increase in number, burn for longer and affect
     larger areas of land.

     The concept of a ‘normal’ bushfire           This year, the bushfire season has started
     season is rapidly changing as bushfires      early in several parts of South Australia.
     continue to increase in number, burn         The state has fifteen districts, and at
     for longer and affect larger areas of land   the time of writing the South Australia
     (Bushfire CRC 2014). The influence of        Country Fire Authority confirmed that
     hotter, drier weather conditions on the      seven of these districts have either
     likelihood of bushfire spread in South       already started, or are set to start. These
     Australia is captured by changes in          districts include the Eastern Eyre
     the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI),         Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, the Lower
     an indicator of extreme fire weather.        South East, the Mount Lofty Ranges,
     Some regions of Australia, especially        the North East Pastoral, Riverland and
     in the south and southeast (Victoria,        the West Coast. Total fire bans were
     South Australia and New South Wales)         also declared across parts of South
     have already experienced a significant       Australia on the 20th-24th of October
     increase in extreme fire weather since       as temperatures in the state climbed
     the 1970s, as indicated by changes in the    to above 30°C (SACFS 2014b). The
     FFDI. The FFDI increased significantly at    Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for
     16 of 38 weather stations across Australia   2014/15 (see Figure 7) projects that due
     between 1973 and 2010, with none of the      to the hotter, drier weather in southeast
     stations recording a significant decrease    Australia, above normal fire activity can
     (Clarke et al. 2013). These changes have     be expected in the North West Pastoral,
     been most marked in spring, indicating       West Coast, Eastern Eyre Peninsula,
     a lengthening fire season across             Lower Eyre Peninsula, Flinders and Mid
     southern Australia, with fire weather        North districts (Bushfire and Natural
     extending into October and March. The        Hazards CRC 2014).
     lengthening fire season means that
     opportunities for fuel reduction burning
     are decreasing (Matthews et al., 2012).

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU                                                                           Page 11
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              The Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for
              2014/15 projects that due to the hotter, drier
              weather in southeast Australia, above normal
              fire activity can be expected in the North West
              Pastoral, West Coast, Eastern Eyre Peninsula,
              Lower Eyre Peninsula, Flinders and Mid
              North districts.

                  Bushfire Bushfire
                           Potential    2014-15
                                    Potential 2014-15
                            Above Normal
             Above Normal   Normal

             Normal

              Figure 7: Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook
              (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC 2014)

              Research aimed at understanding future         their collective conclusion is clear –
              fire activity in Australia’s southeast has a   weather conditions conducive to fire
              long history (Table 1). While the detailed     in the southeast and southwest of the
              results of these studies vary due to the       continent are becoming increasingly
              use of different global circulation models     frequent and this trend will continue.
              (GCMs) and different climate scenarios,

 Page 12                                                                    CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
Future changes in the El Niño-Southern            intense during the 1979-2009 period
     Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are                 than at any other time in the past 600
     also likely to have an influence on               years (Aiken et al. 2013). Although there
     fire activity. There is a strong positive         is no consensus on the influence of
     relationship between El Niño events               climate change on ENSO behaviour,
     and fire weather conditions in southeast          recent projections suggest increases in
     and central Australia (Williams and               El Niño-driven drying in the western
     Karoly 1999; Verdon et al. 2004; Lucas            Pacific Ocean by mid-to late 21st century
     2005) and between El Niño events and              (Power et al. 2013); such a change would
     actual fire activity (Harris et al. 2013).        increase the incidence of heat and
     Significant changes have occurred in              drought, and potentially fire activity, in
     the nature of ENSO since the 1970s, with          eastern Australia.
     the phenomenon being more active and

     Table 1: Summary of projections from modeling studies aimed at projecting changes
     in fire risk in southeast Australia

      Study                      Projections
      Beer et al. (1988)         10%-20% increase in FFDI in southeast.
      Beer and Williams (1995)   Increase in FFDI with doubling of atmospheric CO2, commonly >10%
                                 across most of continent, especially in the southeast, with a few small
                                 areas showing decreases.
      Williams et al. (2001)     General trend towards decreasing frequency of low and moderate fire
                                 danger rating days, but an increasing frequency of very high and in
                                 some cases extreme fire danger days.
      Lucas et al. (2007)        Increases in annual FFDI of up to 30% by 2050 over historical levels in
                                 southeast Australia and up to a trebling in the number of days per year
                                 where the uppermost values of the index are exceeded. The largest
                                 changes projected to occur in the arid and semi-arid interior of NSW
                                 and northern Victoria.
      Hasson et al. (2009)       Analysed likelihood of increase in incidence of synoptic weather
                                 pattern in southeast Australia known to be associated with extreme
                                 fire events. Projected potential frequency of extreme events to increase
                                 from around 1 event every 2 years during the late 20th century to
                                 around 1 event per year in the middle of the 21st century, and to
                                 around 1 to 2 events per year by the end of the 21st century.
      Clarke et al. (2011)       FFDI projected to decrease or show little change in the tropical
                                 northeast. In the southeast, FFDI projected to increase strongly by
                                 end of the 21st century, with the fire season extending in length and
                                 starting earlier.
      Matthews et al. (2012)     Warming and drying climate projected to produce drier,
                                 more flammable fuel, and to increase rate of fire spread .

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU                                                                                       Page 13
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              4. Impacts of bushfires
              in South Australia
              Bushfires have had a very wide range           the community are also uneven, with the
              of human and environmental impacts,            elderly, infants and those with chronic
              including loss of life and severe health       heart or lung diseases at higher risk
              effects, damage to property, devastation       (Morgan et al. 2010).
              of communities and effects on water and
                                                             In addition to physical health impacts,
              natural ecosystems (Stephenson 2010).
                                                             the trauma and stress of experiencing a
                                                             bushfire can also increase depression,
              4.1 Health Impacts                             anxiety, and other mental health issues,
                                                             both in the immediate aftermath of
              Populations in South Australia are at risk
                                                             the trauma and for months or years
              from the health impacts of bushfires,
                                                             afterwards (McFarlane and Raphael
              which have contributed to physical and
                                                             1984; Sim 2002; Whittaker et al. 2012).
              mental illness as well as death.
                                                             For example, in the aftermath of an
              Tragically, in Australia bushfires             event such as the Ash Wednesday fires
              have accounted for more than 800               it is expected that 20% of the affected
              deaths since 1850 (Cameron et al.              population will develop significant
              2009; King et al. 2013), and have              psychological issues (McFarlane 1990).
              contributed to numerous fatalities in          Post-traumatic stress, major depression,
              South Australia. For example the Black         anxiety and suicide can also manifest
              Tuesday bushfires claimed the live of          among firefighters, sometimes only
              nine South Australian residents. In            becoming evident many months after an
              addition to fatalities, bushfire smoke         extreme event (McFarlane 1988; Cook et
              can seriously affect health. Smoke             al. 2013).
              contains not only respiratory irritants,
              but also inflammatory and cancer-              In the aftermath of
              causing chemicals (Bernstein and
              Rice 2013). Smoke can be transported           an event such as the
              in the atmosphere for hundreds or              Ash Wednesday fires
              even thousands of kilometres from the
              fire front, exposing large populations         it has been estimated
              to its impacts (Spracklen et al. 2009;
              Dennekamp and Abramson 2011;
                                                             that 20% of the affected
              Bernstein and Rice 2013). For example,         population will
              in 2006, air quality in Adelaide was rated
              as ‘very poor’ 3% of the year (this is equal
                                                             develop significant
              to 12 days). These twelve days of poor air     psychological issues.
              quality were attributed to smoke from
              bushfires or windblown dust (Dougherty
              2006). The impacts of bushfire smoke in

 Page 14                                                                   CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
4.2 Economic Costs                            Access Economics 2014). The total
                                                   economic costs of South Australian
     The economic cost of bushfires –              bushfires for 2014 are projected to be
     including loss of life, livelihoods,          $44 million (2011$). By about mid century
     property damage and emergency                 these costs will almost double, potentially
     services responses– is very high. The         reaching $79 million (Deloitte Access
     total economic cost of bushfires, a           Economics 2014). These estimates take
     measure that includes insured losses as       into account increases in the number
     well as broader social costs, is estimated    of households, growth in the value of
     to be $337 million per year in Australia      housing stock, population growth and
     (2011$), a figure that is expected to reach   increasing infrastructure density.
     $800 million by around 2050 (Deloitte

     Figure 8: Bushfire damage, Flinders Chase National Park, Kangeroo Island

     Bushfires can cause direct damage             can also be significant. For example,
     to properties, for example when the           in New South Wales a month after the
     Ash Wednesday fires destroyed 2,400           2013 Blue Mountains bushfires, tourism
     homes in Victoria and South Australia         operators estimated losses of nearly $30
     (AEMI 2014). Indirect costs, such as          million due to declines in visitors and
     impacts on local tourism industries           cancellations alone (ABC 2013).

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT

              The Ash Wednesday fires destroyed 2,400
              homes in Victoria and South Australia
              Bushfires can cause significant losses
              in farming areas of regional and rural
                                                             4.3 Environmental
              South Australia. Bushfires can cause               Impacts
              the death of hundreds of thousands
                                                             Fire can affect the quality and quantity of
              of livestock and affect significant
                                                             water in catchments and have significant
              amounts of farming land. For example
                                                             impacts on ecosystems.
              the Black Tuesday fires of 2005 killed
              approximately 47,000 livestock (SACFS
              2014a). Stock that survives the initial
                                                             4.3.1	Impact on water quality
              bushfires can face starvation in the
                                                                    and quantity
              post-fire period, as well as threats from      Large-scale high intensity fires that
              predators due to the destruction of            remove vegetation expose topsoils
              fences around properties (Stephenson           to erosion and increased runoff after
              2010). The Black Tuesday fires destroyed       subsequent rainfall (Shakesby et al. 2007).
              approximately 6,300 kilometers of              This can increase sediment and nutrient
              fencing (SACFS 2014a). Smoke damage            concentrations in nearby waterways,
              can also taint fruit and vegetable crops,      potentially making water supplies unfit
              with wine grapes particularly susceptible,     for human consumption (Smith et al.
              which is bad news for South Australia’s        2011; IPCC 2014). For example, bushfires
              strong wine industry (Stephenson 2010).        in January 2003 devastated almost all of
              The industry has been increasingly             the Cotter catchment in the Australian
              affected by bushfire smoke taint in wine,      Capital Territory, causing unprecedented
              which can often make grapes unusable           levels or turbidity, iron and manganese
              as they produce smoky, burnt ash               and significantly disrupting water supply
              aromas (Anderson et al. 2008).                 (White et al. 2006). Fires can also affect
                                                             water infrastructure. Fires in the Sydney
              It is important to note that these
                                                             region in 2002 affected the Woronora
              economic losses do not account for
                                                             pumping station and water filtration
              the full range of costs associated with
                                                             plants, resulting in a community alert to
              bushfires – few attempts have been
                                                             boil drinking water (WRF 2013). In South
              made to account for loss of life, social
                                                             Australia a wildfire in 2007 burned a
              disruption and trauma, opportunity costs
                                                             reservoir catchment that supplied water
              for volunteer fire fighters, fixed costs for
                                                             to Adelaide, negatively affecting the
              bushfire fighting services, government
                                                             quality of the water (Smith et al. 2011).
              contributions for rebuilding and
              compensation, impacts on health, and
              ecosystem services (King et al. 2013).

 Page 16                                                                    CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
4.3.2 Impact on ecosystems                   is too long, plant species that rely on fire
                                                  for reproduction may be eliminated from
     Fire is a regular occurrence in many
                                                  an ecological community. Animals are
     Australian ecosystems, and many species
                                                  also affected by bushfires, for example if
     have evolved strategies over millions of
                                                  they are restricted to localised habitats
     years to not only withstand fire, but to
                                                  and cannot move quickly, and/or
     benefit from it (Crisp et al. 2011, Bowman
                                                  reproduce slowly, they may be at risk
     et al. 2012). Fire does not “destroy”
                                                  from intense large-scale fires that occur
     bushland, as is often reported; rather, it
                                                  at short intervals (Yates et al. 2008). For
     acts as a major disturbance with a range
                                                  example, bushfires can be catastrophic
     of complex impacts on different species
                                                  for koalas, destroying eucalypt foliage,
     and communities. Particular fire regimes
                                                  as well as burning and killing the iconic
     (especially specific combinations of fire
                                                  Australian marsupial. Major fires can
     frequency and intensity) can favour
                                                  also act as a barrier to koala dispersal,
     some species and disadvantage others. If
                                                  reducing the source of immigrants and
     fires are too frequent, plant species can
                                                  leading to localised population declines
     become vulnerable to local extinction as
                                                  (Matthews et al. 2007; Wallis 2013).
     the supply of seeds in the soil declines.
     Conversely, if the interval between fires

     Figure 9: Tree-dwelling animals like koalas are very vulnerable during and
     immediately after bushfires.

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT

              5. Implications of
                 increasing fire
                 activity
              The risk that bushfires pose to people are     The economic, social and environmental
              particularily acute in southern Australia,     costs of increasing bushfire activity in
              where large populations live close to          South Australia are potentially immense.
              highly flammable native vegetation             As noted in Section 4.2, an analyses of
              that is exposed to frequent severe fire        projected costs of bushfires in South
              weather. The population of South               Australia by Deloitte Access Economics
              Australia could potentially grow from          (2014) forecast that bushfires in South
              1.7 million (as of June 2012) to 2.6 million   Australia could cost $79 million by about
              in 2061 (ABS 2014). In South Australia,        mid century (2011$), based only on
              39 councils have designated bushfire           population and asset increases, but
              protection areas within their council          not including increased risk due to
              boundaries as numerous homes are               climate change.
              within close proximity to bushland
              (SA government 2014). The increasing
              population and built assets, coupled with
              increasing fire danger weather, present
              significant and growing challenges for
              the state.

 Page 18                                                                    CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
The economic, social and environmental
     costs of increasing bushfire activity in
     South Australia are potentially immense.

     Figure 10: Bushfires in Clayton, South Australia

     There is increasing interest in how           lit in cool weather to reduce the volume
     adaptation to an increasingly bushfire-       of fuel. Fire managers are constantly
     prone world may reduce vulnerability.         faced with the challenge of balancing the
     Current initiatives centre on planning        need to reduce risk to life and property
     and regulations, building designs to          whilst simultaneously conserving
     reduce flammability, burying powerlines       biodiversity and environmental amenity,
     in high risk areas and retrofitting           and controlling air pollution near urban
     electricity systems, fuel management,         areas (Penman et al. 2011; Williams and
     fire detection and suppression, improved      Bowman 2012; Adams 2013; Altangerel
     early warning systems, and community          and Kull 2013). The increasing length of
     education (Preston et al. 2009; Buxton et     the fire season will reduce the window
     al. 2011; O’Neill and Handmer 2012; King      of opportunity for hazard reduction at
     et al. 2013). Responses to bushfires can      the same time that the need for hazard
     be controversial, particularly the practise   reduction becomes greater.
     of prescribed burning, where fires are

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU                                                                          Page 19
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOUTH AUSTRALIA BUSHFIRE THREAT

              Australia’s premier fire and emergency services
              agencies have recognised the implications of
              climate change for bushfire risk and fire-fighting
              resources for some time
              Australia’s premier fire and emergency       Substantially increased resources for
              services agencies have recognised            fire suppresson and control will be
              the implications of climate change for       required. Among these resources are
              bushfire risk and fire-fighting resources    professional firefighters, the number of
              for some time (AFAC 2009; 2010).             whom in Australia will need to grow by
              Longer fire seasons have implications        an estimated 20% (that is, by about 2300)
              for the availability and costs of fire-      by 2020 (compared to 2012) just to keep
              fighting equipment that is leased from       pace with increased population and asset
              fire fighting agencies in the Northern       growth (NIEIR 2013). When the increased
              Hemisphere. As fire seasons in the two       incidence of fire-related extreme
              hemispheres increasingly overlap, such       weather is also taken into account,
              arrangements may become increasingly         the estimate is that a further 1200 fire
              impractical (Handmer et al. 2012).           fighters will be needed.

              6. This is the
                 Critical Decade
              The impacts of climate change are            impacts as the temperature rises. For
              already being observed. Sea levels are       South Australia, these impacts include
              rising, oceans are becoming more acidic,     increased fire danger weather and longer
              and heatwaves have become longer and         bushfire seasons. Ensuring that this
              hotter. We are now more confident than       guardrail is not exceeded will prevent
              ever that the emission of greenhouse         even worse impacts from occurring.
              gases by human activities, mainly
                                                           The evidence is clear and compelling.
              carbon dioxide from the combustion of
                                                           The trend of increasing global emissions
              fossil fuels, is the primary cause for the
                                                           must be halted within the next few
              changes in climate over the past half-
                                                           years and emissions must be trending
              century (IPCC 2013; 2014).
                                                           downwards by 2020. Investment in
              Projections of future climate change and     renewable, clean energy must therefore
              its impacts have convinced nations that      increase rapidly. And, critically, most
              the global average temperature, now          of the known fossil fuel reserves must
              at 0.9oC above the pre-industrial level,     remain in the ground.
              must not be allowed to rise beyond 2oC–
                                                           This is the critical decade to get on with
              the so-called ‘2oC guardrail’. Societies
                                                           the job.
              will have to adapt to even more serious

 Page 20                                                                  CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
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IMAGE CREDITS

     Cover Photo: “An Outback fire in Renmark SA” by Flickr user Muffytyrone licensed
     under CC by -NC-SA 2.0.
     Page 4: Figure 1 “A Firefighter at work in South Australia” by Flickr user robdownunder
     licensed under CC by -NC -ND 2.0.
     Page 6: Figure 3 “A bushfire near Adelaide” by Flickr User J-ster licensed under CC
     by -NC-SA 2.0.
     Page 7: Figure 4 “An Outback fire in Renmark SA” by Flickr user Muffytyrone licensed
     under CC by -NC-SA 2.0.
     Page 9: Figure 5 “Burned vineyards in South Australia” by Flickr user David Clarke
     licensed under CC by -NC -ND 2.0.
     Page 12: Figure 7 “Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2014-15” by the Bushfires
     and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (2014).
     Page 15: Figure 8 “A blaze breaks out in Wingfield South Australia” By Flickr user
     Jak Sie Masz licensed under CC by -NC-ND 2.0.
     Page 17: Figure 9 “ Tree-dwelling animals like koalas are very vulnerable during
     and immediately after bushfires “ by Flickr user Frankzed licensed under CC by 2.0.
     Page 19: Figure 10 “Bushfires in Clayton, South Australia” by Flicker user Vicki
     licensed under CC by -NC -ND 2.0.

CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU                                                                          Page 27
Preparing for a Bushfire in
South Australia

                                                                      000
IN AN EMERGENCY, CALL TRIPLE
ZERO (106 FOR PEOPLE WITH A
HEARING OR SPEECH IMPAIRMENT)

What can I do to prepare for a bushfire?
          INFORM YOURSELF
          The South Australian Country Fire Service has the resources available to help you
          prepare for a bushfire. Use these resources to inform yourself and your family.

          ASSESS YOUR LEVEL OF RISK
          The excellent resources of the South Australian Country Fire Service are available
          to assist you to assess your level of risk from bushfire. Take advantage of them.
          Visit: http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/prepare_for_bushfire/know_your_risk.jsp

          MAKE A BUSHFIRE SURVIVAL PLAN
          Even if your household is not at high risk from bushfire (such as suburbs over 1 km
          from bushland), you should still educate yourself about bushfires, and take steps to
          protect yourself and your property. Access the bushfire ready self assessment tool:
          http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/prepare_for_bushfire/be_bushfire_ready/be_bushfire_
          ready_app.jsp

          PREPARE YOUR PROPERTY
          Regardless of whether you decide to leave early or to stay and actively defend,
          you need to prepare your property for bushfire, An important consideration is
          retrofitting older houses to bring them in alignment with current building codes for
          fire risk and assessing the flammability of your garden. Use the CFS Bushfire Ready
          Assessment Tool to help recognise exactly what you need to prepare your property:
          http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/prepare_for_bushfire/be_bushfire_ready/be_bushfire_
          ready_app.jsp

          PREPARE YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY
          Preparation is not only about the physical steps you take to prepare – e.g., preparing
          your house and making a bushfire survival plan. Preparing yourself and your family
          also involves considering your physical, mental and emotional preparedness for
          a bushfire and its effects. Take the time to talk to your family and to thoroughly
          prepare yourself on all levels.

Key Links
SA RFS:                           Bushfire Self Assessment Tool:     Fire Watch Map:
http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/    http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/          http://myfirewatch.landgate.
prepare_for_bushfire.jsp          site/prepare_for_bushfire/be_      wa.gov.au/
                                  bushfire_ready/be_bushfire_
1300 362 361
                                  ready_app.jsp
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