Belmont Stakes (2019) - Thoroughbred Racing Dudes
Belmont Stakes (2019) - Thoroughbred Racing Dudes
The Belmont Stakes (G1) is the final jewel of the elusive Triple Crown, and while we don’t have a Justify looking to be the 14th Triple Crown winner of all- time this year, the race is full of great contenders, making for an excellent betting opportunity. Called “The Test of the Champion,” the Belmont Stakes is the oldest of the Triple Crown races and was first run in 1867 at Belmont Park in Elmont, NY. It is also the longest, with a grueling distance of 1 1/2 miles for 3-year-olds on the main dirt track. Led by the 151st running of the headlining event, an unprecedented eight Grade 1 races will make up the card on Belmont Stakes Day, June 8, all of which are included in this guide! This Inside Track to the Belmont Stakes is a combination of some of the best handicapping forces in the country.
The Racing Dudes have been offering handicapping picks and analysis daily for over seven years, but this year, all hands are on deck. Racing Dudes Aaron and Jared have studied these Belmont Stakes contenders for months. Expert handicapper Mike Somich is known for his massive multi-race scores and is ready to cash in big. He is fairly new to the team, but he is already making many fans with his Pick 4 and Pick 5 analyses and picks. As a special bonus this year, Jonathon Kinchen is contributing to this Inside Track to the Belmont Stakes! Jonathon was the 2015 NHC Tour champion and remains the only player in NHC history to have both of his entries qualify for The Final Table.
Jonathon’s work has been seen on DRF and Fox Sports. You can also check him out on the In The Money Players’ Podcast, which he does with tournament expert Peter T. Fornatale. IN THIS ALL-INCLUSIVE INSIDE TRACK TO THE BELMONT STAKES YOU CAN FIND: 4Multi-Race Wager plays and strategies from handicapping expert Mike Somich 4Exclusive analysis and picks from Jonathon Kinchen 4Top 4 choices for all stakes races from the handicappers at racingdudes.com 4Race by Race analysis of all 10 stakes races on the Belmont card including: 4Overview of the Race 4Race Shape and Pace Analysis 4Top Selections 4Major threats 4Longshots to Use 4Exclusive picks and plays, which include: win, place, and show bets; longshot across the board plays; exacta, trifecta, and superfecta plays; horses to use in multi-race wagers; and what to play on both a small and a large budget.
Each win, place, show, and across the board selection comes with a confidence rating so that you can see how strongly we feel about each pick. Finally, always remember to wager responsibly and never wager more than you can afford. Good luck today!
should improve with the added distance and will be able to sit a great trip oﬀ of #3 Sea Foam’s flank. I’ll also use #1 Mo Gotcha, who broke his maiden on debut before falling in his second career start to a horse named Majid that wired the field; I will be using him two races later, albeit in a much tougher spot.
Like Principled, Mo Gotcha is a lightly-raced 3-year-old and will be close to the pace. These two horses have the highest probability of improvement here, and if either one steps up, then they will knock oﬀ a horse who will be significantly over-bet. Since we started out with ALL in the first leg, we are going to have to make some stands in order to keep these tickets aﬀordable, and this is going to be one of those for me. I’m not- so-shockingly in love with #2 Better Tapit, who makes his career debut here. He could easily need a start under his belt, but let’s be honest, this isn’t a field of world-beaters and he’s a son of Tapit out of a Galileo mare.
There’s so much turf in his pedigree that grass literally grows wherever he walks. Trainer Steve Asmussen can get them home first time out, and his top jock Ricardo Santana, Jr., is aboard. The race also seems pace- heavy, and based oﬀ of his workouts, I expect him to be rolling late. I’m also going to use the #4 No Mans Land. He sports the far-best numbers of anyone in this race and was within a nose of winning at this distance before, something that no one else can boast. I don’t really love this 2/1 morning line favorite, but I also can’t figure out how to fade him here. I’ll finish it up with #9 Uncle Artie.
His last race was more than disappointing and he had no excuse that I can tell, but if you can look past it, then he fits. I’m giving jockey Joel Rosario a nod here and will hope that the combination of the added distance and Rosario’s ride gives us back-to-back $10+ winners to start this oﬀ.
One trend that I’ve noticed on these big days is that I’ve continually had success with the Early Pick 4s and Pick 5s on big cards. They also tend to pay out significantly more than I except, mainly due to the pool sizes and the tendency of people to overplay favorites early on these days. Why? Because the bulk of their time is spent dissecting the latter half of the loaded card where the bigger, sexier races sit. That leave us with an opportunity to make some money early that will help fund those late bets.
This is a classic “fade the favorite” race to me, so I will be going ALL in my deeper ticket.
Instead of talking about the horses that I like, let’s start with the morning line 7/5 favorite #6 Potomac. If you read Handicapping 301 or listen to The Magic Mike Show, then you’d probably think that I would be all over this horse as an improving second-out 4-year-old, but I see some serious red flags. First, let’s look at his last cycle. His previous trainer Rudy Rodriguez claimed him for $25,000 and he had a huge speed figure jump next out. That eﬀort wasn’t repeated until the More To Tell, a $66,000 stakes race which was by far his most impressive win. Potomac then took a few months oﬀ and showed up in a $50,000 claimer last out, which is how he arrived to the Carlos Martin barn.
He’s still got all of his conditions left, so it’s mind-boggling why solid connections were willing to lose him going into a New York summer season that has massive purses at Belmont Park and Saratoga. People will point to his 3-for-5 record over this course, but even that is a smoke screen. He beat $20k maiden claimers, $35k claimers NW3 lifetime, and then a $50k claimer field where he was lone speed in a field of five. Combine all of that with the fact that we are going from a 20% barn to a 6% barn that is also 7% first oﬀ the claim, and he’s going to get smashed at the windows. I see a real chance to start this out with a price.
Now, on to the horses that I like in my shorter ticket. Let’s start with #5 Principled. He is hitting the track for just his third career start and his second as a 3-year-old for a Todd Pletcher barn that generally does well in these spots. This son of Medaglia d’Oro RACE 1 – ALLOWANCE $92K N1X – 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT RACE 2 – MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $90K – 1 1/4 MILES ON THE TURF
Alright, we are headed right back to the ALL button here. The main reason is that I’ve got no interest in the 6/5 morning line favorite #6 Alwaysmining after his awful Preakness Stakes eﬀort. Also, everyone that he’s beaten in his seven career wins has looked atrocious since. I’m also not in love with #4 Outshine, who will be the public’s other go-to horse. I am going to use him on both tickets, but in the shorter one, it’s more of a defensive use than a confident play. I’m going to go to #5 Majid (remember him?) as my top pick here. He’s taken nice steps forward in his last two starts, and now trainer Rudy Rodriguez is moving him up aggressively.
Note that he was also touted as a 2-year-old in the Todd Pletcher barn after being Zayat Stables purchased him for $295,000. He’s also got a shot at being lone speed, depending on Alwaysmining, who’s never made the lead at any track except Laurel Park. If Majid is let go up front, he’s gone. I also will use #3 Grumps Little Tots because he is a great value at 12/1. He ran well as a 2-year-old and showed nice improvement as a 3-year-old before moving up for the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). That’s a toss race for me; he was eliminated at the break, thanks to a rogue rival knocking into half the field, and he was quickly 16 lengths oﬀ the lead after never being more than 4 oﬀ in any other start.
Additionally, trainer Jason Servis is firing at a 31% clip, jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., is currently winning 20% of his mounts, and they are an eye-popping 39% at Belmont Park when teaming up together.
Let’s not try to get too cute here; #4 Rushing Fall is my top pick. She’s got the early turn of foot to be on the lead in her second start as a 4-year-old for trainer Chad Brown and she’s got the class (she’s a three-time G1 winner) that no one else can match. I would not try to talk people oﬀ of singling her here. Man, #3 Beau Recall sure looked like a world-beater last out in the Churchill Distaﬀ Turf Mile Stakes (G2) vs. many of her rivals here. The track helped her out because it was playing toward closers, but I am still not sure how you can leave her oﬀ of here due to the improvement that she’s shown as a 5-year- old.
The only one of Beau Recall’s rivals that I’ll be using from the Distaﬀ Turf Mile is #8 Environs. We all know how good trainer Chad Brown is in New York, and I like the confidence that entering her in this spot shows. I was expecting more from her last out and it seems like I may have just been one race too early. If she improves again, then look out. If there is rain, I’ll be adding my girl #5 Capla Temptress because she loves tracks with some give in the ground. I will also be playing two Superfectas here: 4/3,5,6/3,5,6/3,5,6 and 4/1,5,6/1,5,6/1,5,6. I’ve pulled nice profits using this strategy (heavy favorite on top with three boxed underneath) in the past.
With two ALL races, you had to know that a single was coming! We’ve got two superstars going head-to-head in #1 Come Dancing and #2 Midnight Bisou. This is one of those matchups that I cannot wait to watch as a fan, but as a bettor, it scares the heck out of me. There is little value in playing both, so it’s a good place to take a stand with the one with a tactical advantage. That’s the case with Come Dancing. In a short field of five horses, with her being on the rail and the logical lone speed, it’s going to be tough for anyone to get by Come Dancing down the lane. My biggest fear here is that jockey Mike Smith will also realize that and could easily decide to make an Abel Tasmen-esque move aboard Midnight Bisou on the backstretch.
Despite that, I believe that Come Dancing is just the better horse right now. If I did use another horse, I’d turn to #4 Escape Clause, who gave Midnight Bisou a real scare in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) last time out. She’ll oﬀer significantly better value in the multi-race bets and should get first run at Come Dancing.
RACE 3 – EASY GOER STAKES – 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT RACE 4 – JUST A GAME STAKES (G1) – 1 MILE ON THE OUTER TURF RACE 5 – OGDEN PHIPPS STAKES (G1) – 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT MIKE’S TICKETS: $0.50 Pick 5 - ALL / 2, 4, 9 / All / 3, 4, 6 / 1 - $162 $0.50 Pick 5 - 1, 5 / 2, 4, 9 / 3, 4, 5 / 3, 4, 6 / 1 - $24 $0.50 Pick 5 - 1, 5 / 2, 4, 9 / 3, 4, 5 / 4 / 1 - $6
There is no Triple Crown on the line, but there is plenty to love about Belmont Stakes Day. What an unbelievable three days of racing that is the closest thing we have to a Spring version of the Breeders’ Cup.
You name the division for three-year-olds and up and they will be represented here. The 2019 Belmont Festival lives up to its promise. The best middle-distance turf female is running, Rushing Fall. Arguably the best dirt sprinter is running, Mitole (Sorry, Roy H but at least I threw in that “arguably” just for you). The best older dirt horse is running, Mckinzie. The best turf sprinter in the world is running, World of Trouble. Midnight Bisou could also make a case for some superlative if she tried hard enough. There are plenty of ways that you can attack the Belmont Festival. I am going to focus on Saturday’s late pick 4, but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out the wonderful new wager that NYRA created.
Starting Friday in the True North, there will be a 2-day, .20 cent, mandatory payout, all stakes, 15% takeout, pick 6. Horseplayers need to support this innovation. I know I will be.
This is one of my favorite races of the entire year and this is the first time it will be run as a Grade 1. Mind Control has never been out of the exacta in his one-turn races. He is drawn outside and his Hall of Fame rider, Johnny V, will have the ability to see what everyone inside of him is doing. Although Mind Control feels like the most likely winner, Honest Mischief and Complexity are likely to have something to say about the outcome of this race. Honest Mischief was a very impressive maiden winner at Keeneland in April. The speed figure he earned there alone makes him an extremely likely winner, with his connections and pedigree being the icing on the cake.
The rail draw is tricky for a lightly raced horse, but I think that can sometimes be a feature rather than a bug ($1, PTF). That’s because I believe the rail draw forces riders to be slightly more aggressive when breaking from the gate in an attempt to get their position moving forward. Complexity doesn’t need much introduction as the winner of the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes on this racetrack as a two-year old. The layoﬀ is obviously a concern, but Chad Brown had this one ready to win a maiden race at Saratoga on debut by four lengths. In my view, winning first out is “in the same family” as winning oﬀ a long layoﬀ.
Landeskog feels like the type that could get loose if the others have trouble or lack aggression. A horse who is likely to be on the front end at 12-1 or higher is always one worth serious consideration. Hog Creek Hustle ran sneaky good in the Pat Day Mile. He will be forgotten here and I will be running on late. As stated above, I believe Mckinzie is the best older horse in the country. His Grade 1 Malibu win at 7 furlongs was brilliant. He was ultra competitive in his eﬀorts at 9 and 10 furlongs this year. His Alysheba was jaw dropping at 8.5 furlongs and now he gets the one-turn mile that should suit him perfectly.
The post-position is not perfect, but I think he is tactical enough that Mike Smith should be able to work out a good trip. Mitole is probably the most interesting runner in the race. Extremely talented and dominant going 6 and 7 furlongs, but has yet to try anything farther. Mitole will have to deal with Promises Fulfilled who is expected to be on the engine early, but Mitole has shown the ability to relax. I think he could be special, but ALL GRADE ONE $.50 Late Pick 4 Saturday, Race 8, 4:04pm ET, G1 Woody Stephens Saturday, Race 9, 4:46pm ET, G1 Runhappy Met Mile Saturday, Race 10, 5:36pm ET, G1 Manhattan Saturday, Race 11, 6:37pm ET, G1 Belmont Stakes LEG A - G1 WOODY STEPHENS A: 1 – Honest Mischief 4 – Complexity 9 – Mind Control (Top Pick) B: 5 – Landeskog 8 – Hog Creek Hustle LEG B - G1 RUNHAPPY MET MILE
I also think he needs to be ridden aggressively. He will be in trouble if they take away his best weapon, his speed in an attempt to see out the trip. Firenze Fire is 3 for 3 at Belmont Park and there is a strong chance this one will get a nice setup with the potential speed duel between Mitole and Promises Fulfilled. I still prefer Mckinzie in that scenario, but would not be surprised if Firenze Fire got the job done. Prince Lucky may appear to have just been beating up on lesser down at Gulfstream Park, but his speed figures suggest that he could get a piece in this race. The outside draw is a positive as well.
Bricks and Mortar has not lost on the turf this year. Not only has he not lost on the turf, two of those wins have come in the biggest turf races we oﬀer in America (Old Forester Turf Classic and the Pegasus Turf Cup). This will be his first time going 10 furlongs, but I don’t foresee the distance being an issue. I admittedly did not like Qurbaan in his last start versus Bricks and Mortar, but he ran really well in his last start while adding blinkers. This will be his first attempt going 10 furlongs, but nothing suggests he won’t handle the distance. I have never been a fan of Raging Bull, but he also ran huge at CD on Derby Day.
He spent the early part of the race on the boggy inside and made an honest run when they turned for home. Olympico could be any kind after the impressive North American debut May 4th. This one should have no issue with the added distance. Over half of Olympico’s lifetime races have taken place at 10 furlongs or further. Channel Maker loves Belmont. Two of his best lifetime races have taken place on this turf course. Love the outside draw and the confidence Joel Rosario shows by sticking with this one.
A: 2 – Mckinzie (Top Pick) 3 – Mitole B: 7 – Firenze Fire C: 9 – Prince Lucky LEG C - G1 MANHATTAN A: 4 – Qurbaan 8 –Bricks and Mortar (Top Pick) B: 1 – Raging Bull 7 – Olympico 10 – Channel Maker I love Tacitus in this race, BUT I only love him if he is ridden forwardly. If he is ridden like he was in the Kentucky Derby, I don’t think he can win. He is a single for me because I trust Bill Mott and Jose Ortiz. Bill and Jose have both won this race before and know what kind of horse and trip is required. Tacitus is out of the classy mare Close Hatches who won a grade one on this racetrack and his sire Tapit needs no introduction.
War Of Will ran extremely well in Preakness, but he spent a lot of time on the inside of a racetrack that favored horses that spent time near the rail. He is still the second best horse in the race and I have heard Mark Casse comment a number of times that the Belmont is more of a speed race. I would imagine the instructions would be to keep him near the pace. He is a must use if ridden aggressively. Tax, Spinoﬀ, and Intrepid Heart all have a chance. Tax is bred to run all day and I could definitely see him winning if the top two don’t show up. Spinoﬀ is a talented horse that I thought had a chance in the Kentucky Derby.
He gets the 5 weeks oﬀ for Todd Pletcher who does really well in the Belmont Stakes (3 wins). Speaking of Todd, Intrepid Heart is another that has a shot in my opinion. I don’t typically like horses adding blinkers in grade one stakes, but it seems like this is something they have always wanted to do. Would have been a very odd move for an undefeated horse, but an easy decision after the recent eﬀort.
LEG D - G1 BELMONT STAKES A: 10 – Tacitus (Top Pick) B: 9 – War Of Will C: 4 – Tax 6 – Spinoﬀ 8 – Intrepid Heart All As: ($4 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 10 All As with (1) B: ($2 Pick 4) 5,8 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 10 ($2 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 7 w 4,8 w 10 ($2 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 1,7,10 w 10 ($2 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 9 All As with (2) Bs: ($1 Pick 4) 5,8 w 7 w 4,8 w 10 ($1 Pick 4) 5,8 w 2,3 w 1,7,10 w 10 ($1 Pick 4) 5,8 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 9 ($1 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 7 w 1,7,10 w 10 ($1 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 7 w 4,8 w 9 ($1 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 1,7,10 w 9 All As with (1) C: ($.50 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 9 w 4,8 w 10 ($.50 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 4,6,8 Total = $214
This race kicks oﬀ the stakes action on a Belmont day that is loaded with great betting opportunities. In total, there are 10 stakes race on the card, including eight Grade 1 events. For this contest, six horses have signed on to run, including standouts Outshine and Alwaysmining. Pure Speed: Majid, Alwaysmining Pressing Speed: Outshine Stalkers: Still Dreaming Closers: Dream Maker, Grumps Little Tots Look for a slow pace from this short field, and only two will have much interest in the lead. Those horses, Majid and Alwaysmining, are fast but don’t have to have the lead to win. The rest will draft in behind them, so the pace should set up fairly for all runners.
This is a big race for a horse who could be ready for a decent latter half of the season. He was a solid second to Tacitus in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), a real positive considering Tacitus is the Belmont Stakes (G1) favorite. He lost all shot at winning the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) last out after getting knocked around out of the gate. He should bounce back in this spot. Outshine's major threat is Alwaysmining, who looks to rebound after an extremely disappointing non-eﬀort in the Preakness Stakes (G1). Before that, he had won six straight in impressive fashion. Trainer Mark Casse has been high on Dream Maker all year long.
He has been inconsistent, but he did have a little bit better showing last time out when finishing third in the Pat Day Mile Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs.
This horse could be interesting from a pace standpoint. In his last three races, he has gone straight to the lead and never looked back, including an allowance win over this track last time out. Look for him to go to the front and try to take this field wire to wire. We’ll need to see some improvement from either of these two horse if they want to rise to the occasion and win this race. Both will also need a decent pace to develop up front if they hope to run down the early leaders. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE TOP CHOICE: #4 OUTSHINE MAJOR THREATS: #2 Dream Maker, #6 Alwaysmining OTHERS: #3 Grumps Little Tots, #1 Still Dreaming OVERVIEW: Bet to Win: #4 Outshine - Confidence Level 3 out of 5 Trifecta: 4,6/2,4,5,6/2,4,5,6 Superfecta: 2,4,5,6 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 2,4,6 Small Budget Wager: $.1 Exacta BOX 2,4,6 Across the Board Longshot Play: #2 Dream Maker - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Large Budget Wager: $4 Exacta BOX 2,4,6 Bet to Place or Show: #6 Alwaysmining- Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Exacta: 2,4,6 BOX LONGSHOTS TO USE: #5 Majid
This is always one of the best races of the year and is good enough to be the feature race on most cards. That is crazy, considering it is just the fourth race on this loaded card. Trainer Chad Brown has dominated this division for years. We can probably expect more of the same from his two solid entries in 2019. Pure Speed: Rushing Fall Pressing Speed: Got Stormy Stalkers: Capla Temptress, Bellavias Closers: Daddy Is a Legend, Beau Recall, Environs Most New York turf races going two turns end up with a slow pace, and this race is shaping up to be more of the same. The heavily-favored Rushing Fall should get out to an early easy lead with Got Stormy tracking the pace.
If the race goes how it looks on paper, then the closers will have a tough time making up ground. It’s hard to say anything bad about this filly, who is nearly perfect on her career. She is 7 for 8, with her only loss coming by a neck at Churchill Downs last year in the Edgewood Stakes (G3). Since that loss, she has rattled oﬀ three straight wins, including two Grade 1 events at Keeneland in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup and the Jenny Wiley. Daddy Is a Legend knocked the five-month rust oﬀ last time out to run third in the Churchill Downs Distaﬀ Mile Stakes (G2). She should be ready for an improved eﬀort.
Environs is Brown’s “other entry” and has Jose Ortiz aboard. Got Stormy was a strong second last time out in the Churchill Downs Distaﬀ Mile, getting passed late by Beau Recall.
Because of the pace, this is another ho Bellavais disappointed in her last start, finishing fifth in the Jenny Wiley Stakes. However, she has shown that she can run much better than that eﬀort. Beau Recall pulled oﬀ a big upset in the Churchill Downs Distaﬀ Mile last time out. If she can reproduce that eﬀort, then she could be tough to beat once again in this race. There is nothing wrong with Capla Temptress, who has several strong races on her resume. However, she is likely to be outclassed in a race of this magnitude. She needs to show major improvement here.
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #2 Bellavais, #3 Beau Recall RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE TOP CHOICE: #4 RUSHING FALL MAJOR THREATS: #1 Daddy Is a Legend, #6 Environs, #7 Got Stormy.
OTHERS: #5 Capla Temptress Bet to Win: #4 Rushing Fall - Confidence Level: 4 out of 5 Bet to Place or Show: #1 Daddy Is a Legend - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #6 Environs - Confidence Level: 2 out of 5 Exacta: 1,4,6 BOX Trifecta: 1,4,6,7 BOX Superfecta: 1,4,6,7 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,4,6,7 Small Budget Wager: $.50 cent Trifecta BOX 1,4,6,7 Large Budget Wager: $2 Trifecta BOX 1,4,6,7
This field came up short with just five fillies and mares entered to run, but the current top female horse in the country has entered. That horse is Midnight Bisou, who is a perfect 3-for-3 to start 2019. She will take on Come Dancing, another hot runner this year who has won two races graded stakes in a row by multiple lengths. Pure Speed: Come Dancing, Escape Clause Pressing Speed: Pacific Wind Stalkers: Mopotism Closers: Midnight Bisou A small field looks like a slow pace on paper. Come Dancing almost certainly will go to the lead, with Escape Clause not far behind. Those two can move swiftly up front but are unlikely to get into a speed duel.
This looks like a two-horse race on paper with Come Dancing and Midnight Bisou leading the way. This up- and-comer enters after two straight graded stakes victories in the state of New York. The first came in the Distaﬀ Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct, followed by the Ruﬃan Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park last time out. She also holds a pace advantage over her main rival here at what will likely be a better price.
It was hard to not put Midnight Bisou on top after her perfect start to 2019. It began with winning the Houston Ladies Classic Stakes (G3) before she shipped to Oaklawn Park to take home the Azeri Stakes (G2) and the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1). This race is certainly a two-horse battle between she and Come Dancing, but Midnight Bisou is likely to be over-bet in this spot, making her tough to play on top. She nearly upset Midnight Bisou last time out in the Apple Blossom Handicap, which would have been the biggest win of her career. This hard-knocker always shows up with a solid eﬀort. She fits into this race well and should have a chance at making some noise, especially if the pace is as slow as it looks on paper.
Throwing out Chad Brown in the state of New York is always a dangerous thing to do, but that is what we are doing with Pacific Wind. She has struggled to find the winner's circle in races like this one. Mopotism has competed at the highest level several times but has rarely won. Her best days may be behind her. LONGSHOTS TO USE: #4 Escape Clause RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE TOP CHOICE: #1 COME DANCING MAJOR THREATS: #2 Midnight Bisou OVERVIEW: OTHERS: #3 Pacific Wind, #5 Mopotism Bet to Win: #1 Come Dancing - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Bet to Place or Show: #2 Midnight Bisou - Confidence Level: 5 out of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #4 Escape Clause - Confidence Level: 1 out of 5 Exacta: 1,2 BOX Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,4/1,2,4 Superfecta: 1,2/1,2,4/1,2,4/1,2,3,4 Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,2 Small Budget Wager: $10 Win/Place on #1 Come Dancing Large Budget Wager: $20 Win/Place on #1 Come Dancing
Turf sprints are not always the most popular type of race in the United States, but this race is must-see TV. A field of nine will contest this year’s Jaipur, including two-time defending champion Disco Partner. Also in the race are World of Trouble, who could be the best sprinter in the world, along with other classy horses such as Belvoir Bay and Om. Pure Speed: Gidu, World of Trouble Pressing Speed: Belvoir Bay Stalkers: Om, Dirty, Wild Shot Closers: Undrafted, Diamond Oops, Disco Partner Anytime World of Trouble is entered, you know that the pace will be honest. The question becomes what horses are going to be able to run with him on the front end.
There doesn't look to be anyone in this race who can, with the exception of Gidu, who is also quick on the front end. Regardless, don't expect World of Trouble to get tired in this race.
It’s hard to go against a horse like World of Trouble, no matter where his connections decide to enter. He can ran just as well on both turf and dirt, making him a truly unique horse. He nearly won the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) last season, and he’s likely to get ahead of this group and not look back here. How can you not play two-time defending champion Disco Partner in this race? Two years ago, he set a world record in victory, and last year, he looked just as dominant. You also can’t forget about Belvoir Bay, who was a very close second two races back in the Al Quoz Sprint (G2) in Dubai.
Most recently, she was second in an oﬀ-turf edition of the Monrovia Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park.
He looks dangerous, especially underneath, in his second start oﬀ of a lengthy layoﬀ. There is no doubt that he was not yet his normal self in that last eﬀort, which was likely just a prep for this race. He will be ready to run much better. These five seem to be a bit outclassed and will really have to step up their games in order to make an impact here. The field is extremely tough and the top-heavy horses will all need to run poorly in order for these horses to have much of a chance. LONGSHOTS TO USE: #2 Om RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A FAST PACE TOP CHOICE: #8 WORLD OF TROUBLE MAJOR THREATS: #6 Disco Partner, #7 Belvoir Bay OTHERS: #1 Undrafted, #3 Dirty, #4 Gidu, #5 Diamond Oops, #9 Wild Shot OVERVIEW: Bet to Win: #8 World of Trouble - Confidence Level: 5 out of 5 Bet to Place or Show: #6 Disco Partner - Confidence Level 5 out of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #7 Belvoir Bay.
- Confidene Level 3 out of 5 Exacta: 6,7,8 BOX Trifecta: 2,6,7,8 BOX Superfecta: 2,6,7,8 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 6,7,8 Small Budget Wager: $20 to Win on #8 World of Trouble Large Budget Wager: $50 to Win on #8 World of Trouble
The 3-year-old filly division has been wide-open all season long, and this race is no diﬀerent. We could be set up for a wild one here in what should be an amazing betting race. Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress is wildly inconsistent and the hyped newcomer Guarana will face winners for the first time. This is the first stakes on the card that could produce a big upset. Pure Speed: Serengeti Empress, Cookie Dough, Fancy Dress Party, Guarana, Ce Ce Pressing Speed: Queen of Beas Stalkers: Bell’s the One Closers: Jeltrin, Proud Emma On paper, this one looks like it is going to be blazing up front.
That could be bad news for the two favorites, who both have blazing early speed. Serengeti Empress has proven that she needs the lead to be successful, and Guarana didn't face horses like this in her lone start. This has the makings of an upset. Let’s get a little bit crazy here with Cookie Dough. She cuts back in distance, which should suit her very well. She has been competitive with several of the top horses in this crop, so she fits from a class standpoint. She makes her first start for both new trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and jockey Javier Castellano. The most inconsistent horse in the country is Serengeti Empress.
She either runs first or last, so she is always a short price that looks beatable on paper, but you have to play her, too, because she can (and will) beat you. Guarana makes her second career start here after dominating maiden special weight foes. She also keeps jockey Jose Ortiz, who jumped oﬀ of Serengeti Empress to stay on Guarana. Ce Ce is also a promising filly who is making her third career start. If the pace starts to melt down up front due to a fast pace, then this is the horse that could make some noise at a big price. Sometimes, the pace does not materialize like it looks on paper.
That has already happened in this division in both the Kentucky Oaks and the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes this season. These four seem to be a bit outclassed and will really have to step up their games in order to make an impact here. A few of them could really benefit from a hot pace, which would set up for a closer to come in and pull oﬀ a big upset.
LONGSHOTS TO USE: #8 Queen of Beas RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A VERY FAST PACE TOP CHOICE: #3 COOKIE DOUGH MAJOR THREATS: #1 Serengeti Empress, #7 Guarana, #9 Ce Ce OTHERS: #2 Jeltrin, #4 Bell’s the One, #5 Fancy Dress Party, #6 Proud Emma OVERVIEW: Bet to Win: #3 Cookie Dough - Confidence Level: 2 out of 5 Bet to Place or Show: #7 Guarana - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #8 Queen of Beas - Confidence Level: 1 out of 5 Exacta: 3,7,9 BOX Trifecta: 3,7,8,9 BOX Superfecta: 3,7,8,9 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,3,7,8,9 Small Budget Wager: $.50 cent Trifecta BOX 3,7,8,9 Large Budget Wager: $2 Trifecta BOX 3,7,8,9
A large field of 11 sophomores will sprint 7 furlongs in an event that truly looks to be a “Box ‘em up and call ‘em home” type of race. This division has been wide open all season long, no matter if the races were sprints or routes. Several horses appear to have a serious chance of winning this contest. Pure Speed: Much Better, Complexity, Landeskog Pressing Speed: Lexitonian, Wendell Fong Stalkers: Mind Control, Honest Mischief Closers: Borracho, Nitrous, Strike Sliver, Hog Creek Hustle With three pure speed horses signed on, we should see a swift pace. Much Better knows only one thing, and that is to go the front.
Complexity should be ready to roll early, coming back from a long layoﬀ. Landeskog might be the fastest of all, though, which could turn this into a total meltdown on the front end.
This horse showed solid progression from his first start to his second, winning a maiden special weight at Keeneland by 8 lengths after a second on debut at Gulfstream Park. He seems to be on the rise and could sit a perfect inside stalking trip in this race. His price will be right to play on top. You have to consider these four to be major challengers in this race. Much Better has the best connections in the race and ran well at 7 furlongs two races back. Complexity returns for his highly- anticipated 2019 debut after a solid 2-year-old season. Landeskog has serious early speed up front, which makes him dangerous at a big price.
Mind Control is the most consistent horse in the race and can be relied upon to show up with his usual solid eﬀort. Nitrous is interesting if the pace falls apart; same for Hog Creek Hustle. Both horses do their best running late, so a hot pace will benefit them in a big way. Wendell Fong enters this one oﬀ of a win and seems to be improving at the right time to run a big one. There is nothing to knock when it comes to these three horses, all of whom have had good moments during their career. You just have to take a stand against someone in this diﬃcult spot.
LONGSHOTS TO USE: #6 Nitrous, #8 Hog Creek Hustle, #11 Wendell Fong RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A FAST PACE TOP CHOICE: #1 HONEST MISCHIEF MAJOR THREATS: #2 Much Better, #4 Complexity, #5 Landeskog, #9 Mind Control OTHERS: #3 Borracho, #7 Strike Silver, #10 Lexitonian OVERVIEW: Bet to Win: #1 Honest Mischief - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Bet to Place or Show: #9 Mind Control - Confidence Level: 4 out of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #5 Landeskog - Confidence Level: 2 out of 5 Exacta: 1,4,9 BOX Trifecta: 1,4,5,9 BOX Superfecta: 1,4,5,9 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,2,4,5,9 Small Budget Wager: $.50 cent Trifecta BOX 1,4,5,9 Large Budget Wager: $2 Trifecta BOX 1,4,5,9
The Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap, aka the Met Mile, drew six millionaires into the field, including two- time Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Thunder Snow. The Godolphin homebred colt has amassed $16,391,476 in career earnings coming into this race, far more than the rest of his challengers combined. However, he is still searching for his first win in the United States. Last year, he was third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs after finishing second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park.
Pure Speed: Coal Front, Mitole, Promises Fulfilled, Firenze Fire Pressing Speed: McKinzie, Thunder Snow, Prince Lucky Stalkers: Pavel Closers: Tale of Silence This one is going to be fast and wild.
Several tremendous speed horses signed on to run, with several more sitting just behind, pressing the pace. The stalkers and closers should have the advantage here. This horse has been nothing short of amazing this season, winning three straight races including the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) last time out. This will be his first race at a mile, but he has shown no signs of slowing down in any of his races. He’s a handful. When playing the Pick 4s and up, you have to go deep in this spot. Coal Front and Thunder Snow are coming oﬀ of big wins in Dubai, while Firenze Fire and McKinzie both picked up tremendous wins in the United States coming into this one.
All four of these horses can easily win this race. Overall, this could be the race of the year so far.
Because of the pace, this horse will have a shot to coming flying with a late stretch run at the end. He is 30-1 on the morning line, which makes him extremely interesting, especially in the underneath positions. It’s crazy to think that a horse like Promises Fulfilled could be considered a throw out, but it is very hard to see him winning at this distance against this type of competition. All three of these horses have had their day in the sun but look overmatched here. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A VERY FAST PACE TOP CHOICE: #3 MITOLE MAJOR THREATS: #1 Coal Front, #2 McKinzie, #4 Thunder Snow, #7 Firenze Fire OTHERS: #6 Promises Fulfilled, #8 Pavel #9 Prince Lucky OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #5 Tale of Silence Bet to Win: #3 Mitole - Confidence Level: 4 out of 5 Bet to Place or Show: #2 McKinzie - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #1 Coal Front - Confidence Level: 2.5 out of 5 Exacta: 1,2,3 BOX Trifecta: 1,2,3,7 BOX Superfecta: 1,2,3,7 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,2,3,4,7 Small Budget Wager: $10 Win/Place on #3 Mitole Large Budget Wager: $20 Win/Place on #3 Mitole
Bricks and Mortar is currently ranked as the number- one horse in the world, so that automatically makes this race a lot of fun. He will be used as a single for most multi-race players, especially with the deep fields that are in this sequence. He’ll face nine rivals in this spot as he looks to make it a perfect 4-for-4 in 2019. Pure Speed: Bandua Pressing Speed: Qurbaan Stalkers: Raging Bull, Bricks and Mortar, Epical Closers: Catcho En Die, Robert Bruce, Channel Cat, Olympico, Channel Maker The pace could make things interesting, with Bandua likely alone on lead. That will give Qurbaan a tactical advantage, which could help him turn the tables on rival Bricks and Mortar after his narrow defeat last time out at Churchill Downs.
The closers will likely have to sit a bit closer to the pace than normal in order to have a chance down the stretch.
This field is ultra-tough; however, it is hard to go against Bricks and Mortar after his tremendous 2019 thus far. He has won every major race that he has entered, including the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) to kick oﬀ his season. Trainer Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this race, and this is his best horse. Brown has two other formidable entries in this race, including the Arlington Million Stakes (G1) winner Robert Bruce and the strong closer Olympico. Qurbaan looks to have a significant pace advantage over many of his rivals, which should give him an honest shot at pulling oﬀ the upset.
Channel Maker is always diﬃcult to beat at Belmont Park and comes into this race oﬀ of a big win last time out in the Man o’ War Stakes (G1). The fourth Brown entry is Raging Bull, who must be respected as he runs third oﬀ of the layoﬀ. He was fourth to Bricks and Mortar last time out. Catcho En Die is mildly interesting at a big price, as he has been competitive with this kind of competition in the past. This will be his second start oﬀ the layoﬀ. These three seem to be a bit outclassed and will really have to step up their games in order to make an impact here. The field is extremely tough; several horses entered have world-class talent.
RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE TOP CHOICE: #8 BRICKS AND MORTAR OTHERS: #5 Channel Cat, #6 Bandua, #9 Epical OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #1 Raging Bull, #2 Catcho En Die MAJOR THREATS: #3 Robert Bruce, #4 Qurbaan, #7 Olympico, #10 Channel Maker Bet to Win: #8 Bricks and Mortar - Confidence Level: 5 out of 5 Bet to Place or Show: #3 Robert Bruce - Confidence Level: 4 out of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #4 Qurbaan - Confidence Level: 3 of 5 Exacta: 3,4,8 BOX Trifecta: 3,4,8,10 BOX Superfecta: 3,4,8,10 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 3,8 Large Budget Wager: $50 win on #8 Bricks and Mortar Small Budget Wager: $20 win on #8 Bricks and Mortar
The Triple Crown series comes to a close with the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes (G1). The race often referred to as the "Test of Champions" has drawn a field of 10 horses this year, and all must travel the grueling 1 1/2-mile distance over a deep and tiring Belmont Park surface. Preakness Stakes (G1) winner War of Will headlines the field, with Tacitus posing as his main challenger and the slight morning-line favorite. Pure Speed: Joevia, Intrepid Heart Pressing Speed: Spinoﬀ, War of Will Stalkers: Tax, Tacitus Closers: Everfast, Master Fencer, Bourbon War, Sir Winston This pace is a little hard to predict with the addition of Joevia, who is a real wild card.
He will likely be cheap speed, but he can still play a big factor in the race if he acts crazy like he did when he nearly took out half the field in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). The dangerous horses are Intrepid Heart, who has proven speed and staying power, and War of Will.
He is bred to get this marathon distance and is getting better with each start. He also has five weeks between races, which is his major advantage over War of Will. If he can secure the right trip, he will be hard to hold oﬀ down the lane. War of Will has the running style and pedigree to win this race, which would give him victories in two of the three Triple Crown events. Intrepid Heart also has a great pedigree and running style, but he must bounce back from a poor eﬀort last time out. Sir Winston is improving at the perfect time.
Bourbon War was a major disappointment last time out in the Preakness after the pace set up well for him.
However, he removes the blinkers and gets the services of jockey Mike Smith. Spinoﬀ being entered here means that Pletcher believes that he is doing well. Master Fencer is getting a lot of hype after his Kentucky Derby performance, but he still has some proving to do. So does Everfast, who must show that his Preakness runner-up eﬀort was not a fluke. Joevia looks to be outclassed, while Tax comes into the race oﬀ an average-at-best workout.
RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A MODERATE PACE TOP CHOICE: #10 TACITUS MAJOR THREATS: #7 Sir Winston, #8 Intrepid Heart, #9 War of Will OTHERS: #1 Joevia, #2 Everfast, #3 Master Fencer, #4 Tax OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #5 Bourbon War, #6 Spinoﬀ Bet to Win: #10 Tacitus - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Bet to Place or Show: #9 War of Will - Confidence Level: 3 of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #8 Intrepid Heart - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Exacta: 8,9,10 BOX Superfecta: 7,8,9,10 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 7,8,9,10 Small Budget Wager: $10 Win/Place on #10 Tacitus Large Budget Wager: $20 Win/Place on #10 Tacitus Trifecta: 7,8,9,10 BOX
If you are still interested in betting by the 13th race, then you have one more shot at glory. A fairly evenly- matched field of nine is set to contest this one, and trainer Todd Pletcher holds a strong hand in this year's edition. Pure Speed: You’re to Blame Pressing Speed: Realm Stalkers: Marconi, Sonneteer, Forewarned Closers: Campaign, War Story, Biblical, Rocektry Like usual, these longer races usually have a slow pace, and this one is no diﬀerent. There are no true speed horse in the race, so You’re to Blame will likely inherit the lead. In his only prior career start at this distance, he won while near the front.
He looks like he could get out to the early lead in this spot. Last time out, he put up a great eﬀort, narrowly losing to Tenfold in the Pimlico Special Stakes (G3). He looks to be the class of this field. Marconi was bred to run in this race. Last time out, he was won the Flat Out Stakes over this track. Campaign also won his last start, in the Tokyo City Cup Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park. War Story, who just missed in the 2018 edition, is always dangerous when running these marathon distances. The same could be said for the consistent Rocketry, though he will need some pace help up front in order to be eﬀective.
This distance should suit him quite well, as he seems to be a one-paced plodder. He’ll need some of the front runners to come back to him, but at double-digit odds, he is worth a hard look.
All three of these horses seem to be overmatched in a race that has drawn some very good marathoners. We’ll need to see improvement from this group if they want to make an impact in a race of this caliber. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE TOP CHOICE: #7 YOU’RE TO BLAME MAJOR THREATS: #1 Marconi, #2 Campaign, #4 War Story, #6 Rocketry OTHERS: #5 Biblical, #8 Realm, #9 Forewarned OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #3 Sonneteer Bet to Win: #7 You’re to Blame - Confidence Level: 2 out of 5 Bet to Place or Show: #6 Rocketry - Confidence Level: 2 out of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #1 Marconi - Confidence Level: 1 out of 5 Exacta: 1,6,7 BOX Trifecta: 1,4,6,7 BOX Superfecta: 1,4,6,7 BOX Small Budget Wager: $.50 cent Trifecta BOX 1,4,6,7 Large Budget Wager: $2 Trifecta BOX 1,4,6,7 Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,4,6,7
RACE Aaron Halterman Jared Welch Mike Somich Curtis “Magic” Kalleward Jonathon Kinchen Consensus SATURDAY 6/8/19 Easy Goer Outshine Alwaysmining Dream Maker Majid Outshine Alwaysmining Dream Maker Majid Majid Grumps Little Tots Outshine Dream Maker Outshine Grumps Little Tots Alwaysmining Still Dreaming Alwaysmining Outshine Dream Maker Still Dreaming Outshine Alwaysmining Grumps Little Tots Dream Maker Longines Just a Game (G1) Rushing Fall Daddy Is a Legend Environs Got Stormy Rushing Fall Environs Daddy Is a Legend Got Stormy Rushing Fall Environs Daddy Is a Legend Beau Recall Rushing Fall Beau Recall Daddy Is a Legend Capla Temptress Rushing Fall Daddy Is a Legend Beau Recall Bellavais Rushing Fall Daddy Is a Legend Environs Beau Recall Ogden Phipps (G1) Come Dancing Midnight Bisou Escape Clause Pacific Wind Midnight Bisou Come Dancing Mopotism Escape Clause Come Dancing Escape Clause Midnight Bisou Mopotism Midnight Bisou Escape Clause Come Dancing Pacific Wind Midnight Bisou Come Dancing Mopotism Pacific Wind Midnight Bisou Come Dancing Escape Clause Mopotism Jaipur Invitational (G1) World of Trouble Disco Partner Belvoir Bay Om World of Trouble Undrafted Disco Partner Gidu World of Trouble Om Belvoir Bay Disco Partner World of Trouble Disco Partner Belvoir Bay Om World of Trouble Undrafted Disco Partner Belvoir Bay World of Trouble Disco Partner Undrafted Belvoir Bay Acorn Stakes (G1) Cookie Dough Guarana Ce Ce Queen of Beas Ce Ce Guarana Cookie Dough Proud Emma Ce Ce Queen of Beas Guarana Fancy Dress Party Cookie Dough Guarana Proud Emma Serengeti Empress Ce Ce Guarana Fancy Dress Party Serengeti Empress Ce Ce Guarana Cookie Dough Queen of Beas Woody Stephens (G1) Honest Mischief Mind Control Complexity Landeskog Honest Mischief Mind Control Complexity Much Better Honest Mischief Complexity Mind Control Nitrous Mind Control Much Better Wendell Fong Complexity Mind Control Honest Mischief Complexity Hog Creek Hustle Mind Control Honest Mischief Complexity Much Better Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap (G1) Mitole McKinzie Coal Front Firenze Fire Mitole McKinzie Thunder Snow Firenze Fire McKinzie Mitole Firenze Fire Thunder Snow Mitole Firenze Fire Prince Lucky Thunder Snow McKinzie Mitole Firenze Fire Prince Lucky Mitole McKinzie Firenze Fire Thunder Snow Manhattan (G1) Bricks and Mortar Robert Bruce Qurbaan Channel Maker Bricks and Mortar Raging Bull Channel Cat Qurbaan Epical Bricks and Mortar Olympico Channel Maker Bricks and Mortar Qurbaan Bandua Robert Bruce Bricks and Mortar Qurbaan Channel Maker Raging Bull Bricks and Mortar Qurbaan Epical Robert Bruce/ Raging Bull Belmont Stakes (G1) Tacitus Intrepid Heart War of Will Sir Winston Tacitus War of Will Intrepid Heart Spinoﬀ Intrepid Heart Tacitus War of Will Sir Winston War of Will Tacitus Intrepid Heart Sir Winston Tacitus War of Will Intrepid Heart Tax Tacitus War of Will Intrepid Heart Sir Winston Woodford Reserve Brooklyn Invitational (G2) You’re to Blame Rocketry War Story Marconi Sonneteer Marconi You’re to Blame Rocketry Campaign Rocketry You’re to Blame Marconi Marconi Rocketry You’re to Blame Sonneteer Marconi Rocketry You’re to Blame Sonneteer Marconi You’re to Blame Rocketry Sonneteer