Belmont Stakes (2019) - Thoroughbred Racing Dudes
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The Belmont Stakes (G1) is the final jewel of the elusive Triple Crown, and while we don’t have a Justify looking to be the 14th Triple Crown winner of all- time this year, the race is full of great contenders, making for an excellent betting opportunity. Called “The Test of the Champion,” the Belmont Stakes is the oldest of the Triple Crown races and was first run in 1867 at Belmont Park in Elmont, NY. It is also the longest, with a grueling distance of 1 1/2 miles for 3-year-olds on the main dirt track. Led by the 151st running of the headlining event, an unprecedented eight Grade 1 races will make up the card on Belmont Stakes Day, June 8, all of which are included in this guide! This Inside Track to the Belmont Stakes is a combination of some of the best handicapping forces in the country. The Racing Dudes have been offering handicapping picks and analysis daily for over seven years, but this year, all hands are on deck. Racing Dudes Aaron and Jared have studied these Belmont Stakes contenders for months. Expert handicapper Mike Somich is known for his massive multi-race scores and is ready to cash in big. He is fairly new to the team, but he is already making many fans with his Pick 4 and Pick 5 analyses and picks. As a special bonus this year, Jonathon Kinchen is contributing to this Inside Track to the Belmont Stakes! Jonathon was the 2015 NHC Tour champion and remains the only player in NHC history to have both of his entries qualify for The Final Table. Jonathon’s work has been seen on DRF and Fox Sports. You can also check him out on the In The Money Players’ Podcast, which he does with tournament expert Peter T. Fornatale. IN THIS ALL-INCLUSIVE INSIDE TRACK TO THE BELMONT STAKES YOU CAN FIND: 4Multi-Race Wager plays and strategies from handicapping expert Mike Somich 4Exclusive analysis and picks from Jonathon Kinchen 4Top 4 choices for all stakes races from the handicappers at racingdudes.com 4Race by Race analysis of all 10 stakes races on the Belmont card including: 4Overview of the Race 4Race Shape and Pace Analysis 4Top Selections 4Major threats 4Longshots to Use 4Exclusive picks and plays, which include: win, place, and show bets; longshot across the board plays; exacta, trifecta, and superfecta plays; horses to use in multi-race wagers; and what to play on both a small and a large budget. Each win, place, show, and across the board selection comes with a confidence rating so that you can see how strongly we feel about each pick. Finally, always remember to wager responsibly and never wager more than you can afford. Good luck today!
One trend that I’ve noticed on these big days is that I’ve should improve with the added distance and will be able to sit a continually had success with the Early Pick 4s and Pick 5s on great trip oﬀ of #3 Sea Foam’s flank. I’ll also use #1 Mo Gotcha, big cards. They also tend to pay out significantly more than I who broke his maiden on debut before falling in his second except, mainly due to the pool sizes and the tendency of career start to a horse named Majid that wired the field; I will be people to overplay favorites early on these days. Why? using him two races later, albeit in a much tougher spot. Like Because the bulk of their time is spent dissecting the latter half Principled, Mo Gotcha is a lightly-raced 3-year-old and will be of the loaded card where the bigger, sexier races sit. That leave close to the pace. These two horses have the highest probability us with an opportunity to make some money early that will help of improvement here, and if either one steps up, then they will fund those late bets. knock oﬀ a horse who will be significantly over-bet. RACE 1 – ALLOWANCE $92K N1X – 1 1/16 MILES ON RACE 2 – MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $90K – 1 1/4 THE DIRT MILES ON THE TURF This is a classic “fade the favorite” race to me, so I will be Since we started out with ALL in the first leg, we are going to going ALL in my deeper ticket. Instead of talking about the have to make some stands in order to keep these tickets horses that I like, let’s start with the morning line 7/5 favorite #6 aﬀordable, and this is going to be one of those for me. I’m not- Potomac. If you read Handicapping 301 or listen to The Magic so-shockingly in love with #2 Better Tapit, who makes his career Mike Show, then you’d probably think that I would be all over debut here. He could easily need a start under his belt, but let’s this horse as an improving second-out 4-year-old, but I see be honest, this isn’t a field of world-beaters and he’s a son of some serious red flags. First, let’s look at his last cycle. His Tapit out of a Galileo mare. There’s so much turf in his pedigree previous trainer Rudy Rodriguez claimed him for $25,000 and that grass literally grows wherever he walks. Trainer Steve he had a huge speed figure jump next out. That eﬀort wasn’t Asmussen can get them home first time out, and his top jock repeated until the More To Tell, a $66,000 stakes race which Ricardo Santana, Jr., is aboard. The race also seems pace- was by far his most impressive win. Potomac then took a few heavy, and based oﬀ of his workouts, I expect him to be rolling months oﬀ and showed up in a $50,000 claimer last out, which late. I’m also going to use the #4 No Mans Land. He sports the is how he arrived to the Carlos Martin barn. He’s still got all of far-best numbers of anyone in this race and was within a nose of his conditions left, so it’s mind-boggling why solid connections winning at this distance before, something that no one else can were willing to lose him going into a New York summer season boast. I don’t really love this 2/1 morning line favorite, but I also that has massive purses at Belmont Park and Saratoga. People can’t figure out how to fade him here. I’ll finish it up with #9 will point to his 3-for-5 record over this course, but even that is Uncle Artie. His last race was more than disappointing and he a smoke screen. He beat $20k maiden claimers, $35k claimers had no excuse that I can tell, but if you can look past it, then he NW3 lifetime, and then a $50k claimer field where he was lone fits. I’m giving jockey Joel Rosario a nod here and will hope that speed in a field of five. Combine all of that with the fact that we the combination of the added distance and Rosario’s ride gives are going from a 20% barn to a 6% barn that is also 7% first oﬀ us back-to-back $10+ winners to start this oﬀ. the claim, and he’s going to get smashed at the windows. I see a real chance to start this out with a price. Now, on to the horses that I like in my shorter ticket. Let’s start with #5 Principled. He is hitting the track for just his third career start and his second as a 3-year-old for a Todd Pletcher barn that generally does well in these spots. This son of Medaglia d’Oro
Superfectas here: 4/3,5,6/3,5,6/3,5,6 and 4/1,5,6/1,5,6/1,5,6. RACE 3 – EASY GOER STAKES – 1 1/16 MILES ON I’ve pulled nice profits using this strategy (heavy favorite on top THE DIRT with three boxed underneath) in the past. Alright, we are headed right back to the ALL button here. The RACE 5 – OGDEN PHIPPS STAKES (G1) – 1 1/16 main reason is that I’ve got no interest in the 6/5 morning line MILES ON THE DIRT favorite #6 Alwaysmining after his awful Preakness Stakes eﬀort. Also, everyone that he’s beaten in his seven career wins With two ALL races, you had to know that a single was coming! has looked atrocious since. I’m also not in love with #4 We’ve got two superstars going head-to-head in #1 Come Outshine, who will be the public’s other go-to horse. I am Dancing and #2 Midnight Bisou. This is one of those going to use him on both tickets, but in the shorter one, it’s matchups that I cannot wait to watch as a fan, but as a bettor, more of a defensive use than a confident play. I’m going to go it scares the heck out of me. There is little value in playing both, to #5 Majid (remember him?) as my top pick here. He’s taken so it’s a good place to take a stand with the one with a tactical nice steps forward in his last two starts, and now trainer Rudy advantage. That’s the case with Come Dancing. In a short field Rodriguez is moving him up aggressively. Note that he was also of five horses, with her being on the rail and the logical lone touted as a 2-year-old in the Todd Pletcher barn after being speed, it’s going to be tough for anyone to get by Come Zayat Stables purchased him for $295,000. He’s also got a shot Dancing down the lane. My biggest fear here is that jockey at being lone speed, depending on Alwaysmining, who’s never Mike Smith will also realize that and could easily decide to made the lead at any track except Laurel Park. If Majid is let go make an Abel Tasmen-esque move aboard Midnight Bisou on up front, he’s gone. I also will use #3 Grumps Little Tots the backstretch. Despite that, I believe that Come Dancing is because he is a great value at 12/1. He ran well as a 2-year-old just the better horse right now. If I did use another horse, I’d and showed nice improvement as a 3-year-old before moving turn to #4 Escape Clause, who gave Midnight Bisou a real up for the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). That’s a toss race for scare in the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) last time out. She’ll me; he was eliminated at the break, thanks to a rogue rival oﬀer significantly better value in the multi-race bets and should knocking into half the field, and he was quickly 16 lengths oﬀ get first run at Come Dancing. the lead after never being more than 4 oﬀ in any other start. Additionally, trainer Jason Servis is firing at a 31% clip, jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., is currently winning 20% of his mounts, and they MIKE’S TICKETS: are an eye-popping 39% at Belmont Park when teaming up $0.50 Pick 5 - ALL / 2, 4, 9 / All / 3, 4, 6 / 1 - $162 together. $0.50 Pick 5 - 1, 5 / 2, 4, 9 / 3, 4, 5 / 3, 4, 6 / 1 - $24 RACE 4 – JUST A GAME STAKES (G1) – 1 MILE ON THE OUTER TURF $0.50 Pick 5 - 1, 5 / 2, 4, 9 / 3, 4, 5 / 4 / 1 - $6 Let’s not try to get too cute here; #4 Rushing Fall is my top pick. She’s got the early turn of foot to be on the lead in her second start as a 4-year-old for trainer Chad Brown and she’s got the class (she’s a three-time G1 winner) that no one else can match. I would not try to talk people oﬀ of singling her here. Man, #3 Beau Recall sure looked like a world-beater last out in the Churchill Distaﬀ Turf Mile Stakes (G2) vs. many of her rivals here. The track helped her out because it was playing toward closers, but I am still not sure how you can leave her oﬀ of here due to the improvement that she’s shown as a 5-year- old. The only one of Beau Recall’s rivals that I’ll be using from the Distaﬀ Turf Mile is #8 Environs. We all know how good trainer Chad Brown is in New York, and I like the confidence that entering her in this spot shows. I was expecting more from her last out and it seems like I may have just been one race too early. If she improves again, then look out. If there is rain, I’ll be adding my girl #5 Capla Temptress because she loves tracks with some give in the ground. I will also be playing two
There is no Triple Crown on the line, but there is plenty to love about Belmont Stakes Day. What an unbelievable three days of racing that is the closest thing we have to a Spring version of the Breeders’ Cup. You name the division for three-year-olds and up and they will be represented here. sometimes be a feature rather than a bug ($1, PTF). That’s because I believe the rail draw forces riders to be slightly more The 2019 Belmont Festival lives up to its promise. The best aggressive when breaking from the gate in an attempt to get middle-distance turf female is running, Rushing Fall. Arguably their position moving forward. Complexity doesn’t need much the best dirt sprinter is running, Mitole (Sorry, Roy H but at introduction as the winner of the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes least I threw in that “arguably” just for you). The best older dirt on this racetrack as a two-year old. The layoﬀ is obviously a horse is running, Mckinzie. The best turf sprinter in the world is concern, but Chad Brown had this one ready to win a maiden running, World of Trouble. Midnight Bisou could also make a race at Saratoga on debut by four lengths. In my view, winning case for some superlative if she tried hard enough. first out is “in the same family” as winning oﬀ a long layoﬀ. Landeskog feels like the type that could get loose if the others There are plenty of ways that you can attack the Belmont have trouble or lack aggression. A horse who is likely to be on Festival. I am going to focus on Saturday’s late pick 4, but I the front end at 12-1 or higher is always one worth serious would be remiss if I didn’t point out the wonderful new wager consideration. Hog Creek Hustle ran sneaky good in the Pat that NYRA created. Starting Friday in the True North, there will Day Mile. He will be forgotten here and I will be running on late. be a 2-day, .20 cent, mandatory payout, all stakes, 15% takeout, pick 6. Horseplayers need to support this innovation. I A: know I will be. 1 – Honest Mischief 4 – Complexity ALL GRADE ONE $.50 Late Pick 4 9 – Mind Control (Top Pick) Saturday, Race 8, 4:04pm ET, G1 Woody Stephens B: Saturday, Race 9, 4:46pm ET, G1 Runhappy Met Mile 5 – Landeskog Saturday, Race 10, 5:36pm ET, G1 Manhattan 8 – Hog Creek Hustle Saturday, Race 11, 6:37pm ET, G1 Belmont Stakes LEG B - G1 RUNHAPPY MET MILE LEG A - G1 WOODY STEPHENS As stated above, I believe Mckinzie is the best older horse in This is one of my favorite races of the entire year and this is the first time it will be run as a Grade 1. Mind Control has never the country. His Grade 1 Malibu win at 7 furlongs was brilliant. been out of the exacta in his one-turn races. He is drawn He was ultra competitive in his eﬀorts at 9 and 10 furlongs this outside and his Hall of Fame rider, Johnny V, will have the year. His Alysheba was jaw dropping at 8.5 furlongs and now ability to see what everyone inside of him is doing. Although he gets the one-turn mile that should suit him perfectly. The Mind Control feels like the most likely winner, Honest Mischief post-position is not perfect, but I think he is tactical enough and Complexity are likely to have something to say about the that Mike Smith should be able to work out a good trip. Mitole outcome of this race. Honest Mischief was a very impressive is probably the most interesting runner in the race. Extremely talented and dominant going 6 and 7 furlongs, but has yet to maiden winner at Keeneland in April. The speed figure he earned there alone makes him an extremely likely winner, with try anything farther. Mitole will have to deal with Promises his connections and pedigree being the icing on the cake. The Fulfilled who is expected to be on the engine early, but Mitole has shown the ability to relax. I think he could be special, but rail draw is tricky for a lightly raced horse, but I think that can
I also think he needs to be ridden aggressively. He will be in LEG D - G1 BELMONT STAKES trouble if they take away his best weapon, his speed in an attempt to see out the trip. Firenze Fire is 3 for 3 at Belmont I love Tacitus in this race, BUT I only love him if he is ridden Park and there is a strong chance this one will get a nice setup forwardly. If he is ridden like he was in the Kentucky Derby, I with the potential speed duel between Mitole and Promises don’t think he can win. He is a single for me because I trust Bill Fulfilled. I still prefer Mckinzie in that scenario, but would not be Mott and Jose Ortiz. Bill and Jose have both won this race surprised if Firenze Fire got the job done. Prince Lucky may before and know what kind of horse and trip is required. Tacitus appear to have just been beating up on lesser down at is out of the classy mare Close Hatches who won a grade one Gulfstream Park, but his speed figures suggest that he could on this racetrack and his sire Tapit needs no introduction. War get a piece in this race. The outside draw is a positive as well. Of Will ran extremely well in Preakness, but he spent a lot of time on the inside of a racetrack that favored horses that spent A: time near the rail. He is still the second best horse in the race 2 – Mckinzie (Top Pick) and I have heard Mark Casse comment a number of times that 3 – Mitole the Belmont is more of a speed race. I would imagine the B: instructions would be to keep him near the pace. He is a must 7 – Firenze Fire use if ridden aggressively. Tax, Spinoﬀ, and Intrepid Heart all have a chance. Tax is bred to run all day and I could definitely C: see him winning if the top two don’t show up. Spinoﬀ is a 9 – Prince Lucky talented horse that I thought had a chance in the Kentucky Derby. He gets the 5 weeks oﬀ for Todd Pletcher who does LEG C - G1 MANHATTAN really well in the Belmont Stakes (3 wins). Speaking of Todd, Intrepid Heart is another that has a shot in my opinion. I don’t Bricks and Mortar has not lost on the turf this year. Not only typically like horses adding blinkers in grade one stakes, but it has he not lost on the turf, two of those wins have come in the seems like this is something they have always wanted to do. biggest turf races we oﬀer in America (Old Forester Turf Classic Would have been a very odd move for an undefeated horse, but and the Pegasus Turf Cup). This will be his first time going 10 an easy decision after the recent eﬀort. furlongs, but I don’t foresee the distance being an issue. I A: admittedly did not like Qurbaan in his last start versus Bricks 10 – Tacitus (Top Pick) and Mortar, but he ran really well in his last start while adding blinkers. This will be his first attempt going 10 furlongs, but B: nothing suggests he won’t handle the distance. I have never 9 – War Of Will been a fan of Raging Bull, but he also ran huge at CD on C: Derby Day. He spent the early part of the race on the boggy 4 – Tax inside and made an honest run when they turned for home. 6 – Spinoﬀ Olympico could be any kind after the impressive North 8 – Intrepid Heart American debut May 4th. This one should have no issue with the added distance. Over half of Olympico’s lifetime races have All As: ($4 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 10 taken place at 10 furlongs or further. Channel Maker loves Belmont. Two of his best lifetime races have taken place on this All As with (1) B: turf course. Love the outside draw and the confidence Joel ($2 Pick 4) 5,8 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 10 Rosario shows by sticking with this one. ($2 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 7 w 4,8 w 10 ($2 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 1,7,10 w 10 A: ($2 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 9 4 – Qurbaan 8 –Bricks and Mortar (Top Pick) All As with (2) Bs: B: ($1 Pick 4) 5,8 w 7 w 4,8 w 10 1 – Raging Bull ($1 Pick 4) 5,8 w 2,3 w 1,7,10 w 10 7 – Olympico ($1 Pick 4) 5,8 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 9 10 – Channel Maker ($1 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 7 w 1,7,10 w 10 ($1 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 7 w 4,8 w 9 ($1 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 1,7,10 w 9 All As with (1) C: ($.50 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 9 w 4,8 w 10 ($.50 Pick 4) 1,4,9 w 2,3 w 4,8 w 4,6,8 Total = $214
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #5 Majid This race kicks oﬀ the stakes action on a Belmont day This horse could be interesting from a pace standpoint. that is loaded with great betting opportunities. In total, In his last three races, he has gone straight to the lead there are 10 stakes race on the card, including eight and never looked back, including an allowance win Grade 1 events. For this contest, six horses have over this track last time out. Look for him to go to the signed on to run, including standouts Outshine and front and try to take this field wire to wire. Alwaysmining. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE OTHERS: #3 Grumps Little Tots, #1 Still Dreaming Pure Speed: Majid, Alwaysmining Pressing Speed: Outshine We’ll need to see some improvement from either of Stalkers: Still Dreaming these two horse if they want to rise to the occasion and Closers: Dream Maker, Grumps Little Tots win this race. Both will also need a decent pace to develop up front if they hope to run down the early Look for a slow pace from this short field, and only two leaders. will have much interest in the lead. Those horses, Majid and Alwaysmining, are fast but don’t have to have the lead to win. The rest will draft in behind them, so the pace should set up fairly for all runners. TOP CHOICE: #4 OUTSHINE Bet to Win: #4 Outshine - Confidence Level 3 out of 5 This is a big race for a horse who could be ready for a decent latter half of the season. He was a solid second to Tacitus in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), a real positive Bet to Place or Show: #6 Alwaysmining- Confidence considering Tacitus is the Belmont Stakes (G1) favorite. Level: 3 out of 5 He lost all shot at winning the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) last out after getting knocked around out of the Across the Board Longshot Play: #2 Dream Maker - gate. He should bounce back in this spot. Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Exacta: 2,4,6 BOX MAJOR THREATS: #2 Dream Maker, #6 Trifecta: 4,6/2,4,5,6/2,4,5,6 Alwaysmining Superfecta: 2,4,5,6 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 2,4,6 Outshine's major threat is Alwaysmining, who looks to rebound after an extremely disappointing non-eﬀort in the Preakness Stakes (G1). Before that, he had won six Small Budget Wager: $.1 Exacta BOX 2,4,6 straight in impressive fashion. Trainer Mark Casse has been high on Dream Maker all year long. He has been Large Budget Wager: $4 Exacta BOX 2,4,6 inconsistent, but he did have a little bit better showing last time out when finishing third in the Pat Day Mile Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs.
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS Because TO USE: of the pace, this is#2 Bellavais, another ho #3 Beau Recall This is always one of the best races of the year and is good enough to be the feature race on most cards. Bellavais disappointed in her last start, finishing fifth in That is crazy, considering it is just the fourth race on the Jenny Wiley Stakes. However, she has shown that this loaded card. Trainer Chad Brown has dominated she can run much better than that eﬀort. Beau Recall this division for years. We can probably expect more of pulled oﬀ a big upset in the Churchill Downs Distaﬀ the same from his two solid entries in 2019. Mile last time out. If she can reproduce that eﬀort, then she could be tough to beat once again in this race. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE Pure Speed: Rushing Fall OTHERS: #5 Capla Temptress Pressing Speed: Got Stormy Stalkers: Capla Temptress, Bellavias There is nothing wrong with Capla Temptress, who has Closers: Daddy Is a Legend, Beau Recall, Environs several strong races on her resume. However, she is likely to be outclassed in a race of this magnitude. She Most New York turf races going two turns end up with needs to show major improvement here. a slow pace, and this race is shaping up to be more of the same. The heavily-favored Rushing Fall should get out to an early easy lead with Got Stormy tracking the pace. If the race goes how it looks on paper, then the closers will have a tough time making up ground. TOP CHOICE: #4 RUSHING FALL Bet to Win: #4 Rushing Fall - Confidence Level: 4 out of 5 It’s hard to say anything bad about this filly, who is Bet to Place or Show: #1 Daddy Is a Legend - nearly perfect on her career. She is 7 for 8, with her Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 only loss coming by a neck at Churchill Downs last year in the Edgewood Stakes (G3). Since that loss, she has Across the Board Longshot Play: #6 Environs - rattled oﬀ three straight wins, including two Grade 1 Confidence Level: 2 out of 5 events at Keeneland in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup and the Jenny Wiley. Exacta: 1,4,6 BOX Trifecta: 1,4,6,7 BOX MAJOR THREATS: #1 Daddy Is a Legend, #6 Environs, #7 Got Stormy. Superfecta: 1,4,6,7 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,4,6,7 Daddy Is a Legend knocked the five-month rust oﬀ last time out to run third in the Churchill Downs Distaﬀ Mile Small Budget Wager: $.50 cent Trifecta BOX 1,4,6,7 Stakes (G2). She should be ready for an improved eﬀort. Environs is Brown’s “other entry” and has Jose Ortiz aboard. Got Stormy was a strong second last Large Budget Wager: $2 Trifecta BOX 1,4,6,7 time out in the Churchill Downs Distaﬀ Mile, getting passed late by Beau Recall.
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #4 Escape Clause This field came up short with just five fillies and mares She nearly upset Midnight Bisou last time out in the entered to run, but the current top female horse in the Apple Blossom Handicap, which would have been the country has entered. That horse is Midnight Bisou, who biggest win of her career. This hard-knocker always is a perfect 3-for-3 to start 2019. She will take on Come shows up with a solid eﬀort. She fits into this race well Dancing, another hot runner this year who has won two and should have a chance at making some noise, races graded stakes in a row by multiple lengths. especially if the pace is as slow as it looks on paper. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE OTHERS: #3 Pacific Wind, #5 Mopotism Pure Speed: Come Dancing, Escape Clause Pressing Speed: Pacific Wind Throwing out Chad Brown in the state of New York is Stalkers: Mopotism always a dangerous thing to do, but that is what we are Closers: Midnight Bisou doing with Pacific Wind. She has struggled to find the winner's circle in races like this one. Mopotism has A small field looks like a slow pace on paper. Come competed at the highest level several times but has Dancing almost certainly will go to the lead, with rarely won. Her best days may be behind her. Escape Clause not far behind. Those two can move swiftly up front but are unlikely to get into a speed duel. TOP CHOICE: #1 COME DANCING This looks like a two-horse race on paper with Come Bet to Win: #1 Come Dancing - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 Dancing and Midnight Bisou leading the way. This up- and-comer enters after two straight graded stakes Bet to Place or Show: #2 Midnight Bisou - Confidence victories in the state of New York. The first came in the Level: 5 out of 5 Distaﬀ Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct, followed by the Ruﬃan Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park last time out. She Across the Board Longshot Play: #4 Escape Clause - also holds a pace advantage over her main rival here at Confidence Level: 1 out of 5 what will likely be a better price. Exacta: 1,2 BOX MAJOR THREATS: #2 Midnight Bisou Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,4/1,2,4 Superfecta: 1,2/1,2,4/1,2,4/1,2,3,4 It was hard to not put Midnight Bisou on top after her Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,2 perfect start to 2019. It began with winning the Houston Ladies Classic Stakes (G3) before she shipped Small Budget Wager: $10 Win/Place on #1 Come to Oaklawn Park to take home the Azeri Stakes (G2) Dancing and the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1). This race is Large Budget Wager: $20 Win/Place on #1 Come certainly a two-horse battle between she and Come Dancing Dancing, but Midnight Bisou is likely to be over-bet in this spot, making her tough to play on top.
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #2 Om Turf sprints are not always the most popular type of He looks dangerous, especially underneath, in his race in the United States, but this race is must-see TV. second start oﬀ of a lengthy layoﬀ. There is no doubt A field of nine will contest this year’s Jaipur, including that he was not yet his normal self in that last eﬀort, two-time defending champion Disco Partner. Also in which was likely just a prep for this race. He will be the race are World of Trouble, who could be the best ready to run much better. sprinter in the world, along with other classy horses such as Belvoir Bay and Om. OTHERS: #1 Undrafted, #3 Dirty, #4 Gidu, #5 RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A FAST PACE Diamond Oops, #9 Wild Shot Pure Speed: Gidu, World of Trouble These five seem to be a bit outclassed and will really Pressing Speed: Belvoir Bay have to step up their games in order to make an impact Stalkers: Om, Dirty, Wild Shot here. The field is extremely tough and the top-heavy Closers: Undrafted, Diamond Oops, Disco Partner horses will all need to run poorly in order for these horses to have much of a chance. Anytime World of Trouble is entered, you know that the pace will be honest. The question becomes what horses are going to be able to run with him on the front end. There doesn't look to be anyone in this race who can, with the exception of Gidu, who is also quick on the front end. Regardless, don't expect World of Trouble to get tired in this race. TOP CHOICE: #8 WORLD OF TROUBLE Bet to Win: #8 World of Trouble - Confidence Level: 5 out of 5 It’s hard to go against a horse like World of Trouble, no matter where his connections decide to enter. He can Bet to Place or Show: #6 Disco Partner - Confidence ran just as well on both turf and dirt, making him a truly Level 5 out of 5 unique horse. He nearly won the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) last season, and he’s likely to get ahead of Across the Board Longshot Play: #7 Belvoir Bay. - this group and not look back here. Confidene Level 3 out of 5 Exacta: 6,7,8 BOX MAJOR THREATS: #6 Disco Partner, #7 Belvoir Trifecta: 2,6,7,8 BOX Bay Superfecta: 2,6,7,8 BOX How can you not play two-time defending champion Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 6,7,8 Disco Partner in this race? Two years ago, he set a world record in victory, and last year, he looked just as Small Budget Wager: $20 to Win on #8 World of Trouble dominant. You also can’t forget about Belvoir Bay, who was a very close second two races back in the Al Quoz Large Budget Wager: $50 to Win on #8 World of Trouble Sprint (G2) in Dubai. Most recently, she was second in an oﬀ-turf edition of the Monrovia Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park.
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #8 Queen of Beas The 3-year-old filly division has been wide-open all season long, and this race is no diﬀerent. We could be If the pace starts to melt down up front due to a fast set up for a wild one here in what should be an pace, then this is the horse that could make some amazing betting race. Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti noise at a big price. Sometimes, the pace does not Empress is wildly inconsistent and the hyped materialize like it looks on paper. That has already newcomer Guarana will face winners for the first time. happened in this division in both the Kentucky Oaks This is the first stakes on the card that could produce a and the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes this season. big upset. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A VERY FAST PACE OTHERS: #2 Jeltrin, #4 Bell’s the One, #5 Fancy Dress Party, #6 Proud Emma Pure Speed: Serengeti Empress, Cookie Dough, Fancy Dress Party, Guarana, Ce Ce Pressing Speed: Queen of Beas These four seem to be a bit outclassed and will really Stalkers: Bell’s the One have to step up their games in order to make an impact Closers: Jeltrin, Proud Emma here. A few of them could really benefit from a hot pace, which would set up for a closer to come in and On paper, this one looks like it is going to be blazing up pull oﬀ a big upset. front. That could be bad news for the two favorites, who both have blazing early speed. Serengeti Empress has proven that she needs the lead to be successful, and Guarana didn't face horses like this in her lone start. This has the makings of an upset. TOP CHOICE: #3 COOKIE DOUGH Bet to Win: #3 Cookie Dough - Confidence Level: 2 out of 5 Let’s get a little bit crazy here with Cookie Dough. She Bet to Place or Show: #7 Guarana - Confidence Level: cuts back in distance, which should suit her very well. 3 out of 5 She has been competitive with several of the top horses in this crop, so she fits from a class standpoint. Across the Board Longshot Play: #8 Queen of Beas - She makes her first start for both new trainer Kiaran Confidence Level: 1 out of 5 McLaughlin and jockey Javier Castellano. Exacta: 3,7,9 BOX MAJOR THREATS: #1 Serengeti Empress, #7 Guarana, #9 Ce Ce Trifecta: 3,7,8,9 BOX Superfecta: 3,7,8,9 BOX The most inconsistent horse in the country is Serengeti Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,3,7,8,9 Empress. She either runs first or last, so she is always a short price that looks beatable on paper, but you have Small Budget Wager: $.50 cent Trifecta BOX 3,7,8,9 to play her, too, because she can (and will) beat you. Guarana makes her second career start here after dominating maiden special weight foes. She also keeps Large Budget Wager: $2 Trifecta BOX 3,7,8,9 jockey Jose Ortiz, who jumped oﬀ of Serengeti Empress to stay on Guarana. Ce Ce is also a promising filly who is making her third career start.
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #6 Nitrous, #8 Hog Creek A large field of 11 sophomores will sprint 7 furlongs in Hustle, #11 Wendell Fong an event that truly looks to be a “Box ‘em up and call ‘em home” type of race. This division has been wide Nitrous is interesting if the pace falls apart; same for open all season long, no matter if the races were Hog Creek Hustle. Both horses do their best running sprints or routes. Several horses appear to have a late, so a hot pace will benefit them in a big way. serious chance of winning this contest. Wendell Fong enters this one oﬀ of a win and seems to be improving at the right time to run a big one. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A FAST PACE Pure Speed: Much Better, Complexity, Landeskog OTHERS: #3 Borracho, #7 Strike Silver, #10 Pressing Speed: Lexitonian, Wendell Fong Lexitonian Stalkers: Mind Control, Honest Mischief Closers: Borracho, Nitrous, Strike Sliver, Hog Creek Hustle There is nothing to knock when it comes to these three horses, all of whom have had good moments during With three pure speed horses signed on, we should see their career. You just have to take a stand against a swift pace. Much Better knows only one thing, and someone in this diﬃcult spot. that is to go the front. Complexity should be ready to roll early, coming back from a long layoﬀ. Landeskog might be the fastest of all, though, which could turn this into a total meltdown on the front end. TOP CHOICE: #1 HONEST MISCHIEF Bet to Win: #1 Honest Mischief - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 This horse showed solid progression from his first start to his second, winning a maiden special weight at Keeneland by 8 lengths after a second on debut at Bet to Place or Show: #9 Mind Control - Confidence Gulfstream Park. He seems to be on the rise and could Level: 4 out of 5 sit a perfect inside stalking trip in this race. His price Across the Board Longshot Play: #5 Landeskog - will be right to play on top. Confidence Level: 2 out of 5 Exacta: 1,4,9 BOX MAJOR THREATS: #2 Much Better, #4 Complexity, #5 Landeskog, #9 Mind Control Trifecta: 1,4,5,9 BOX Superfecta: 1,4,5,9 BOX You have to consider these four to be major Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,2,4,5,9 challengers in this race. Much Better has the best connections in the race and ran well at 7 furlongs two Small Budget Wager: $.50 cent Trifecta BOX 1,4,5,9 races back. Complexity returns for his highly- anticipated 2019 debut after a solid 2-year-old season. Large Budget Wager: $2 Trifecta BOX 1,4,5,9 Landeskog has serious early speed up front, which makes him dangerous at a big price. Mind Control is the most consistent horse in the race and can be relied upon to show up with his usual solid eﬀort.
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #5 Tale of Silence The Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap, aka the Met Because of the pace, this horse will have a shot to Mile, drew six millionaires into the field, including two- coming flying with a late stretch run at the end. He is time Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Thunder Snow. The 30-1 on the morning line, which makes him extremely Godolphin homebred colt has amassed $16,391,476 in interesting, especially in the underneath positions. career earnings coming into this race, far more than the rest of his challengers combined. However, he is still searching for his first win in the United States. Last year, he was third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at OTHERS: #6 Promises Fulfilled, #8 Pavel #9 Churchill Downs after finishing second in the Jockey Prince Lucky Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park. It’s crazy to think that a horse like Promises Fulfilled RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A VERY FAST PACE could be considered a throw out, but it is very hard to see him winning at this distance against this type of Pure Speed: Coal Front, Mitole, Promises Fulfilled, competition. All three of these horses have had their Firenze Fire day in the sun but look overmatched here. Pressing Speed: McKinzie, Thunder Snow, Prince Lucky Stalkers: Pavel Closers: Tale of Silence This one is going to be fast and wild. Several tremendous speed horses signed on to run, with several more sitting just behind, pressing the pace. The stalkers and closers should have the advantage here. TOP CHOICE: #3 MITOLE Bet to Win: #3 Mitole - Confidence Level: 4 out of 5 This horse has been nothing short of amazing this Bet to Place or Show: #2 McKinzie - Confidence Level: season, winning three straight races including the 3 out of 5 Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) last time out. This will be his first race at a mile, but he has shown no signs of Across the Board Longshot Play: #1 Coal Front - slowing down in any of his races. He’s a handful. Confidence Level: 2.5 out of 5 Exacta: 1,2,3 BOX MAJOR THREATS: #1 Coal Front, #2 McKinzie, #4 Thunder Snow, #7 Firenze Fire Trifecta: 1,2,3,7 BOX Superfecta: 1,2,3,7 BOX When playing the Pick 4s and up, you have to go deep in this spot. Coal Front and Thunder Snow are coming Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,2,3,4,7 oﬀ of big wins in Dubai, while Firenze Fire and McKinzie both picked up tremendous wins in the United States Small Budget Wager: $10 Win/Place on #3 Mitole coming into this one. All four of these horses can easily win this race. Overall, this could be the race of the year Large Budget Wager: $20 Win/Place on #3 Mitole so far.
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #1 Raging Bull, #2 Catcho En Die Bricks and Mortar is currently ranked as the number- one horse in the world, so that automatically makes The fourth Brown entry is Raging Bull, who must be this race a lot of fun. He will be used as a single for respected as he runs third oﬀ of the layoﬀ. He was most multi-race players, especially with the deep fields fourth to Bricks and Mortar last time out. Catcho En Die that are in this sequence. He’ll face nine rivals in this is mildly interesting at a big price, as he has been spot as he looks to make it a perfect 4-for-4 in 2019. competitive with this kind of competition in the past. This will be his second start oﬀ the layoﬀ. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE OTHERS: #5 Channel Cat, #6 Bandua, #9 Epical Pure Speed: Bandua Pressing Speed: Qurbaan Stalkers: Raging Bull, Bricks and Mortar, Epical These three seem to be a bit outclassed and will really Closers: Catcho En Die, Robert Bruce, Channel Cat, have to step up their games in order to make an impact Olympico, Channel Maker here. The field is extremely tough; several horses entered have world-class talent. The pace could make things interesting, with Bandua likely alone on lead. That will give Qurbaan a tactical advantage, which could help him turn the tables on rival Bricks and Mortar after his narrow defeat last time out at Churchill Downs. The closers will likely have to sit a bit closer to the pace than normal in order to have a chance down the stretch. TOP CHOICE: #8 BRICKS AND MORTAR Bet to Win: #8 Bricks and Mortar - Confidence Level: 5 out of 5 This field is ultra-tough; however, it is hard to go against Bricks and Mortar after his tremendous 2019 Bet to Place or Show: #3 Robert Bruce - Confidence thus far. He has won every major race that he has Level: 4 out of 5 entered, including the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) to kick oﬀ his season. Trainer Chad Brown holds a strong Across the Board Longshot Play: #4 Qurbaan - hand in this race, and this is his best horse. Confidence Level: 3 of 5 MAJOR THREATS: #3 Robert Bruce, #4 Qurbaan, Exacta: 3,4,8 BOX #7 Olympico, #10 Channel Maker Trifecta: 3,4,8,10 BOX Brown has two other formidable entries in this race, Superfecta: 3,4,8,10 BOX including the Arlington Million Stakes (G1) winner Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 3,8 Robert Bruce and the strong closer Olympico. Qurbaan looks to have a significant pace advantage over many Small Budget Wager: $20 win on #8 Bricks and Mortar of his rivals, which should give him an honest shot at pulling oﬀ the upset. Channel Maker is always diﬃcult Large Budget Wager: $50 win on #8 Bricks and Mortar to beat at Belmont Park and comes into this race oﬀ of a big win last time out in the Man o’ War Stakes (G1).
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #5 Bourbon War, #6 Spinoﬀ The Triple Crown series comes to a close with the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes (G1). The race Bourbon War was a major disappointment last time out often referred to as the "Test of Champions" has drawn in the Preakness after the pace set up well for him. a field of 10 horses this year, and all must travel the However, he removes the blinkers and gets the services grueling 1 1/2-mile distance over a deep and tiring of jockey Mike Smith. Spinoﬀ being entered here Belmont Park surface. Preakness Stakes (G1) winner means that Pletcher believes that he is doing well. War of Will headlines the field, with Tacitus posing as his main challenger and the slight morning-line favorite. OTHERS: #1 Joevia, #2 Everfast, #3 Master RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A MODERATE PACE Fencer, #4 Tax Pure Speed: Joevia, Intrepid Heart Pressing Speed: Spinoﬀ, War of Will Master Fencer is getting a lot of hype after his Stalkers: Tax, Tacitus Kentucky Derby performance, but he still has some Closers: Everfast, Master Fencer, Bourbon War, Sir proving to do. So does Everfast, who must show that Winston his Preakness runner-up eﬀort was not a fluke. Joevia looks to be outclassed, while Tax comes into the race This pace is a little hard to predict with the addition of oﬀ an average-at-best workout. Joevia, who is a real wild card. He will likely be cheap speed, but he can still play a big factor in the race if he acts crazy like he did when he nearly took out half the field in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). The dangerous horses are Intrepid Heart, who has proven speed and staying power, and War of Will. Bet to Win: #10 Tacitus - Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 TOP CHOICE: #10 TACITUS Bet to Place or Show: #9 War of Will - Confidence Level: 3 of 5 He is bred to get this marathon distance and is getting better with each start. He also has five weeks between Across the Board Longshot Play: #8 Intrepid Heart - races, which is his major advantage over War of Will. If Confidence Level: 3 out of 5 he can secure the right trip, he will be hard to hold oﬀ down the lane. Exacta: 8,9,10 BOX Trifecta: 7,8,9,10 BOX MAJOR THREATS: #7 Sir Winston, #8 Intrepid Heart, #9 War of Will Superfecta: 7,8,9,10 BOX Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 7,8,9,10 War of Will has the running style and pedigree to win this race, which would give him victories in two of the Small Budget Wager: $10 Win/Place on #10 Tacitus three Triple Crown events. Intrepid Heart also has a great pedigree and running style, but he must bounce Large Budget Wager: $20 Win/Place on #10 Tacitus back from a poor eﬀort last time out. Sir Winston is improving at the perfect time.
OVERVIEW: LONGSHOTS TO USE: #3 Sonneteer If you are still interested in betting by the 13th race, This distance should suit him quite well, as he seems to then you have one more shot at glory. A fairly evenly- be a one-paced plodder. He’ll need some of the front matched field of nine is set to contest this one, and runners to come back to him, but at double-digit odds, trainer Todd Pletcher holds a strong hand in this year's he is worth a hard look. edition. RACE SHAPE: EXPECT A SLOW PACE OTHERS: #5 Biblical, #8 Realm, #9 Forewarned Pure Speed: You’re to Blame All three of these horses seem to be overmatched in a Pressing Speed: Realm race that has drawn some very good marathoners. Stalkers: Marconi, Sonneteer, Forewarned We’ll need to see improvement from this group if they Closers: Campaign, War Story, Biblical, Rocektry want to make an impact in a race of this caliber. Like usual, these longer races usually have a slow pace, and this one is no diﬀerent. There are no true speed horse in the race, so You’re to Blame will likely inherit the lead. In his only prior career start at this distance, he won while near the front. TOP CHOICE: #7 YOU’RE TO BLAME He looks like he could get out to the early lead in this Bet to Win: #7 You’re to Blame - Confidence Level: 2 out of 5 spot. Last time out, he put up a great eﬀort, narrowly losing to Tenfold in the Pimlico Special Stakes (G3). He Bet to Place or Show: #6 Rocketry - Confidence Level: looks to be the class of this field. 2 out of 5 Across the Board Longshot Play: #1 Marconi - Confidence Level: 1 out of 5 MAJOR THREATS: #1 Marconi, #2 Campaign, #4 War Story, #6 Rocketry Exacta: 1,6,7 BOX Marconi was bred to run in this race. Last time out, he Trifecta: 1,4,6,7 BOX was won the Flat Out Stakes over this track. Campaign Superfecta: 1,4,6,7 BOX also won his last start, in the Tokyo City Cup Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park. War Story, who just missed in Horses to Use in Multi-Race Wagers: 1,4,6,7 the 2018 edition, is always dangerous when running these marathon distances. The same could be said for Small Budget Wager: $.50 cent Trifecta BOX 1,4,6,7 the consistent Rocketry, though he will need some pace help up front in order to be eﬀective. Large Budget Wager: $2 Trifecta BOX 1,4,6,7
Curtis RACE Aaron Jonathon Jared Welch Mike Somich “Magic” Consensus Halterman Kinchen Kalleward SATURDAY 6/8/19 Outshine Outshine Majid Outshine Alwaysmining Outshine Alwaysmining Alwaysmining Grumps Little Tots Grumps Little Tots Outshine Alwaysmining Easy Goer Dream Maker Dream Maker Outshine Alwaysmining Dream Maker Grumps Little Tots Majid Majid Dream Maker Still Dreaming Still Dreaming Dream Maker Rushing Fall Rushing Fall Rushing Fall Rushing Fall Rushing Fall Rushing Fall Longines Daddy Is a Environs Environs Beau Recall Daddy Is a Legend Daddy Is a Legend Just a Game Legend Daddy Is a Legend Daddy Is a Legend Daddy Is a Legend Beau Recall Environs (G1) Environs Got Stormy Beau Recall Capla Temptress Bellavais Beau Recall Got Stormy Come Dancing Midnight Bisou Come Dancing Midnight Bisou Midnight Bisou Midnight Bisou Ogden Midnight Bisou Come Dancing Escape Clause Escape Clause Come Dancing Come Dancing Phipps (G1) Escape Clause Mopotism Midnight Bisou Come Dancing Mopotism Escape Clause Pacific Wind Escape Clause Mopotism Pacific Wind Pacific Wind Mopotism World of Trouble World of Trouble World of Trouble World of Trouble World of Trouble World of Trouble Jaipur Disco Partner Undrafted Om Disco Partner Undrafted Disco Partner Invitational Belvoir Bay Disco Partner Belvoir Bay Belvoir Bay Disco Partner Undrafted (G1) Om Gidu Disco Partner Om Belvoir Bay Belvoir Bay Cookie Dough Ce Ce Ce Ce Cookie Dough Ce Ce Ce Ce Acorn Guarana Guarana Queen of Beas Guarana Guarana Guarana Stakes (G1) Ce Ce Cookie Dough Guarana Proud Emma Fancy Dress Party Cookie Dough Queen of Beas Proud Emma Fancy Dress Party Serengeti Empress Serengeti Empress Queen of Beas Honest Mischief Honest Mischief Honest Mischief Mind Control Mind Control Mind Control Woody Mind Control Mind Control Complexity Much Better Honest Mischief Honest Mischief Stephens Complexity Complexity Mind Control Wendell Fong Complexity Complexity (G1) Landeskog Much Better Nitrous Complexity Hog Creek Hustle Much Better Runhappy Mitole Mitole McKinzie Mitole McKinzie Mitole Metropolitan McKinzie McKinzie Mitole Firenze Fire Mitole McKinzie Handicap Coal Front Thunder Snow Firenze Fire Prince Lucky Firenze Fire Firenze Fire (G1) Firenze Fire Firenze Fire Thunder Snow Thunder Snow Prince Lucky Thunder Snow Bricks and Mortar Bricks and Mortar Bricks and Mortar Epical Bricks and Mortar Bricks and Mortar Qurbaan Manhattan Robert Bruce Raging Bull Bricks and Mortar Qurbaan Qurbaan Epical (G1) Qurbaan Channel Cat Olympico Bandua Channel Maker Robert Bruce/ Channel Maker Qurbaan Channel Maker Robert Bruce Raging Bull Raging Bull Tacitus Tacitus Intrepid Heart War of Will Tacitus Tacitus Belmont Intrepid Heart War of Will Tacitus Tacitus War of Will War of Will Stakes (G1) War of Will Intrepid Heart War of Will Intrepid Heart Intrepid Heart Intrepid Heart Sir Winston Spinoﬀ Sir Winston Sir Winston Tax Sir Winston Woodford You’re to Blame Sonneteer Campaign Marconi Marconi Marconi Reserve Rocketry Marconi Rocketry Rocketry Rocketry You’re to Blame Brooklyn War Story You’re to Blame You’re to Blame You’re to Blame You’re to Blame Rocketry Invitational Marconi Rocketry Marconi Sonneteer Sonneteer Sonneteer (G2)
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