BP Energy Outlook 2019 edition
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BP Energy Outlook 2019 edition
The Energy Outlook The Outlook considers a number of different scenarios. These
scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what BP
explores the forces would like to happen. Rather, they explore the possible implications
shaping the global of different judgements and assumptions by considering a series of
“what if” experiments. The scenarios consider only a tiny sub-set of
energy transition the uncertainty surrounding energy markets out to 2040; they do not
provide a comprehensive description of all possible future outcomes.
out to 2040 and the
For ease of explanation, much of the Outlook is described with
key uncertainties reference to the ‘Evolving transition’ scenario. But that does not imply
surrounding that that the probability of this scenario is higher than the others. Indeed,
the multitude of uncertainties means the probability of any one of
transition these scenarios materializing exactly as described is negligible.
The Energy Outlook is produced to aid BP’s analysis and decision-
making, and is published as a contribution to the wider debate. But the
Outlook is only one source among many when considering the future
of global energy markets. BP considers the scenarios in the Outlook,
together with a range of other analysis and information, when forming
its long-term strategy.
3 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019The outlook facing major energy need for much more energy to meet
providers, like BP, is both challenging demand as prosperity rises.
and exciting. There are many other challenges
One of the biggest challenges of our facing our industry as the global energy
time is a dual one: the need to meet system evolves. The centre of gravity
rising energy demand while at the of energy demand is shifting, with
same time reducing carbon emissions. the expanding middle classes in Asia
The emissions-reduction side of this accounting for much of the growth in
dual challenge will mean shifting to a global GDP and energy consumption
lower-carbon energy system, as the over the next 20 years. The pattern
Welcome to the world seeks to move to a pathway of energy supply is also changing,
consistent with meeting the climate with the shale revolution catapulting
2019 edition of goals outlined in the Paris Agreement. the US to pole position as the world’s
BP’s Energy Outlook Much more progress and change
is needed on a range of fronts if
largest producer of oil and gas, and the
rapid growth of liquefied natural gas
the world is to have any chance of (LNG) transforming how natural gas
moving on to such a pathway. is transported and traded around the
Meeting the other side of the dual globe. Meanwhile, the way in which
challenge will require many forms energy is consumed is changing in
of energy to play a role. There’s a real time, as the world electrifies and
strong correlation between human energy increasingly becomes part of
development and energy consumption broader services that are bought and
– and our analysis of this relationship sold in ever more competitive and
in this year’s Outlook highlights the efficient digital markets.
The challenge is to understand, adapt to our thinking and decision-making.
and ultimately thrive in this changing It helps us gauge the range of
energy landscape. Along with these uncertainties, judge how the risks
challenges, come opportunities – and can be managed, and determine how
that’s what makes this a really exciting best to encourage change that puts
time for our industry. Billions of people the world on a more positive and
are being lifted out of low incomes, sustainable path. Ultimately, we are
helping to drive economic growth all part of the energy transition and
and the demand for energy. New the decisions all of us make today
technologies are revolutionizing the can shape the future for many years
way in which that energy is produced, to come.
transported and consumed. And the The Energy Outlook plays an
transition to a lower-carbon energy important role in helping to inform and
system is opening up a wide range of shape our strategic decision-making in
business possibilities. BP. I hope you find this year’s Outlook
This year’s Energy Outlook provides a useful contribution to your own
fresh insight into these trends and discussions and thinking.
many more. The value of the Outlook is
not in trying to predict the future. Any
such attempt is doomed to fail – the
uncertainty surrounding the energy
transition is here to stay. Rather the
value of the Energy Outlook is in Bob Dudley
providing a structure and discipline Group chief executive
5 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Executive summary
The demand for Key points
energy is set to The Energy Outlook considers Despite this increase in energy
increase significantly different aspects of the energy demand, around two-thirds of the
transition and the key issues and world’s population in 2040 still live
driven by increases uncertainties these raise. in countries where average energy
in prosperity in the In all the scenarios considered, world
consumption per head is relatively
low, highlighting the need for
developing world GDP more than doubles by 2040
driven by increasing prosperity in
‘more energy’.
fast-growing developing economies. Energy consumed within industry
and buildings accounts for around
In the Evolving transition (ET) three-quarters of the increase in
scenario this improvement in living energy demand.
standards causes energy demand to
increase by around a third over the Growth in transport demand slows
Outlook, driven by India, China and sharply relative to the past, as gains
Other Asia which together account in vehicle efficiency accelerate.
for two-thirds of the increase. The share of passenger vehicle
kilometres powered by electricity
increases to around 25% by
2040, supported by the growing
importance of fully-autonomous
cars and shared-mobility services.
The world continues to electrify, Natural gas grows robustly,
with around three-quarters of supported by broad-based demand
the increase in primary energy and the increasing availability of gas,
absorbed by the power sector. aided by the continuing expansion
of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Renewable energy is the fastest
growing source of energy, Global coal consumption is broadly
contributing half of the growth flat, with falls in Chinese and OECD
in global energy supplies and consumption offset by increases in
becoming the largest source of India and Other Asia.
power by 2040.
In the Evolving transition scenario,
Demand for oil and other liquid carbon emissions continue to
fuels grows for the first part of the rise, signalling the need for a
Outlook before gradually plateauing. comprehensive set of policy
measures to achieve ‘less carbon’.
The increase in liquids production
is initially dominated by US tight oil, The Outlook considers a range of
but OPEC production subsequently alternative scenarios, including the
increases as US tight oil declines. need for ‘more energy’, ‘less carbon’
and the possible impact of an
escalation in trade disputes.
7 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Contents Overview10 Global backdrop 16 GDP, prosperity and energy intensity 18 Alternative scenario: More energy 22 Dual challenge: More energy, less carbon 24 Sectors26 Summary28 Industry 30 Non-combusted 32 Alternative scenario: Single-use plastics ban 34 Buildings 36 Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon industry and buildings 38 Transport42 Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon transport 48 Power52 Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon power 58 Regions62 Regional consumption 64 Fuel mix across key countries and regions 66 Regional production 68 Global energy trade 70 Alternative scenario: Less globalization 72 Demand and supply of fuels 76 Overview78 Oil80 Alternative scenario: Greater reform 88 Natural gas 94 Coal 102 Renewables 104 Nuclear and hydro 108 Carbon emissions 110 Summary112 Alternative scenario: Rapid transition 114 Beyond 2040 118 Comparisons122 Comparisons to previous Outlooks 124 Comparisons to external Outlooks 128 Annex132 Key figures, definitions and sources 134 9 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019
Overview 11 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019
Overview
The Energy Outlook considers a range of scenarios to explore
different aspects of the energy transition
Primary energy consumption by fuel CO2 emissions
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Key points
The Energy Outlook considers Some scenarios focus on specific
a range of scenarios to explore fuels or policies, e.g. a possible
different aspects of the energy ban on single-use plastics
transition. The scenarios have (pp 34-35). Others focus on impact
some common features, such of possible changes in behaviour,
as ongoing economic growth e.g. an escalation in trade disputes
and a shift towards a lower- (pp 72-75) or major oil producers
carbon fuel mix, but differ in reforming their economies
terms of policy, technology faster-than-expected (pp 88-89).
or behavioural assumptions. The Outlook also considers the
In what follows, the beginning dual challenge facing the energy
of each text page (unless stated system: the need for ‘more energy’
otherwise) highlights features of the (pp 22-23) and ‘less carbon’
energy transition common across all (pp 24-25), including the contribution
scenarios considered. For ease of reducing carbon emissions in
exposition, much of the subsequent different sectors of the energy
description and text boxes are system – transport (pp 48-51),
based on the Evolving transition power (pp 58-61) and industry and
(ET) scenario, which assumes that buildings (pp 38-41) – can make to
government policies, technology and achieving the Paris climate goals.
social preferences continue to evolve
in a manner and speed seen over
the recent past.
13 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Overview
The Outlook considers the energy transition through three different
lenses: sectors, regions and fuels
Primary energy demand
Billion toe
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Key points
The Energy Outlook considers the Growth in energy consumption Renewable energy is the fastest
energy transition from three different is broad-based across all the growing source of energy,
perspectives each of which helps main sectors of the economy, accounting for around half of the
to illuminate different aspects of with industry and buildings increase in energy. Natural gas
the transition: the sectors in which accounting for three-quarters grows much faster than either oil
energy is used; the regions in of the increase in energy demand or coal. The growing abundance of
which it is consumed and produced; (Sectors pp 28-61). energy supplies plays an increasing
and the consumption and production role in shaping global energy
of different fuels. By region, all of the growth in energy markets (Fuels pp 78-109).
demand comes from fast-growing
In the ET scenario, global energy developing economies, led by
demand grows by around a third India and China. Differing regional
by 2040 – a significantly slower trends in energy production lead to
rate of growth than in the previous noticeable shifts in global energy
20 years or so. trade flows (Regions pp 64-75).
15 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Global
backdrop
GDP, prosperity and energy intensity
Alternative scenario: More energy
Dual challenge: More energy, less carbon
17 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Global backdrop
Global economic growth is driven by increasing prosperity in
developing economies, led by China and India
Global GDP growth and
Increase in global GDP, 2017-2040 regional contributions
Trillion $US PPP % per annum
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The world economy continues to But the vast majority of world
grow, driven by increasing prosperity growth is driven by increasing
Billions of people in the developing world. productivity (i.e. GDP per head),
move from low- which accounts for almost 80%
incomes driving global In the ET scenario, global GDP of the global expansion and lifts
grows around 3¼% p.a. (on a more than 2½ billion people from
economic growth and Purchasing Power Parity basis) – low incomes. The emergence
energy demand a little weaker than average growth of a large and growing middle
over the past 20 years or so. class in the developing world is
an increasingly important force
Global output is partly supported by shaping global economic and
population growth, with the world energy trends.
population increasing by around
Developing economies account
1.7 billion to reach nearly 9.2 billion for over 80% of the expansion in
people in 2040. world output, with China and India
accounting for around half of that
growth.
Africa continues to be weighed
down by weak productivity,
accounting for almost half of
the increase in global population,
but less than 10% of world
GDP growth.
19 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Global backdrop
Higher living standards drive increases in energy demand, partly
offset by substantial gains in energy intensity
Contributions to primary
Increase in primary energy demand, 2017-2040 energy demand growth
Billion toe % per annum
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Key points
Expansion in global output and The overall growth in energy Despite significant growth in
prosperity drives growth in global demand is materially offset by prosperity and energy consumption
energy demand. declines in energy intensity over the next 20 years, a substantial
(energy used per unit of GDP) proportion of the world’s population
Energy consumption in the ET as the world increasingly learns in the ET scenario still consumes
scenario increases by around a to produce more with less: relatively low levels of energy
third over the Outlook. As with global GDP more than doubles in 2040. The need for the world
GDP growth, the vast majority over the Outlook, but energy to produce ‘more energy’ as
of this increase stems from consumption increases by well as ‘less carbon’ is discussed
increasing prosperity, as billions only a third. in pp 22-25.
of people move from low to
middle incomes, allowing them to Global energy grows at an
increase substantially their energy average rate of 1.2% p.a. in the
consumption per head. ET scenario, down from over 2%
p.a. in the previous 20 years or so.
This weaker growth reflects both
slower population growth and faster
improvements in energy intensity.
21 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Global backdrop
Alternative scenario: More energy
Alternative scenario: the world needs ‘more energy’ to allow global
living standards to continue to improve
Human development index and energy Share of world population consuming
consumption per head, 2017 less than 100 Gigajoules per head
HDI % of total population
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Key points
There is a strong link between This requires around 25% more
human progress and energy energy by 2040 – roughly equivalent
consumption. to China’s energy consumption
80% of the world’s
in 2017. population live in
The United Nation’s Human
This assumes that countries countries where
Development Index (HDI)
suggests that increases in in which energy consumption average energy
energy consumption up to is much greater than 100 GJ/per consumption is less
around 100 Gigajoules (GJ) head do not economize on their
per head are associated with energy use. If all those countries than 100 GJ per head
substantial increases in human reduced average consumption
development and well-being, levels to the EU average in
after which the relationship 2040 (around 120 GJ/per head),
flattens out. this would provide almost the
entire energy required.
Around 80% of the world’s
population today live in countries Improving energy efficiency in
where average energy consumption countries which use disproportionate
is less than 100 GJ per head. amounts of energy is likely to be
In the ET scenario, this proportion is key to solving the dual challenge
still around two-thirds even by 2040. of providing ‘more energy and less
In the alternative ‘More energy’ carbon’ (pp 22-25).
scenario this share is reduced to
one-third by 2040.
23 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Global backdrop
The global energy system faces a dual challenge: the need for
‘more energy and less carbon’
Primary energy demand and carbon emissions
Cumulative growth rate, 2017 = 0%
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The global energy system faces a The ‘More energy’ scenario
dual challenge: the need for ‘more represents a half-way step to
energy and less carbon’. reducing the proportion of the
world’s population living in
The ET scenario is not consistent countries where the average
with achieving either of these level of consumption is
challenges: below 100 GJ/per head to
one-third by 2040.
energy demand increases by
a third, but two-thirds of the The ‘Rapid transition’ scenario
world population in 2040 live in (see pp 114-117) represents a similar
countries in which average energy half-way step on carbon emissions:
consumption is still less than 100 reducing CO2 emissions by around
GJ per head; 45% by 2040, almost half-way
to reducing entirely carbon
CO2 emissions from energy use
emissions from energy use.
continue to edge up, increasing by
almost 10% by 2040, rather than
falling substantially.
25 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors
Summary
Industry
Non-combusted
Alternative scenario: Single-use plastics ban
Buildings
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon industry and buildings
Transport
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon transport
Power
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon power
27 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors
Energy demand grows in all sectors, with buildings and
non-combusted use increasing in importance
Primary energy consumption by end-use sector† Annual demand growth and sector contributions
Billion toe % per annum
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Key points
Growth in global energy demand In the ET scenario, the growth of The importance of energy used
is broad-based across all the main energy consumption in all sectors within buildings expands over the
sectors of the global economy. slows as gains in energy efficiency Outlook, as growing prosperity
Differing trends in how energy quicken. The slowing in demand in developing economies leads
is used and consumed in these growth is most marked in the to significant increases in power
sectors has an important bearing transport sector – with the growth demand, for space cooling, lighting
on the energy transition. of transport demand less than half and electrical appliances (pp 52-55).
the rate of the previous 20 years –
The industrial sector (including as improvements in vehicle
the non-combusted use of fuels) efficiency accelerate (pp 42-43).
currently consumes around half
of all global energy and feedstock Growth of energy demand
fuels, with residential and used within industry also slows
commercial buildings (29%) (pp 30-31). Despite this, the non-
and transport (21%) accounting combusted use of fuels within
for the remainder. industry – particularly as a feedstock
in petrochemicals – is the fastest
growing source of incremental
demand (pp 32-33).
29 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Industry
The pattern of energy used within industry shifts, driven by the
changing role of China
Final energy consumption in industry: Final energy consumption in industry:
Regional shares of growth Demand by fuel
% per annum Billion toe
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Key points
The Outlook for industrial energy The transition in the Chinese
demand is dominated by the economy means much of the
Growth of energy changing energy needs of China growth in industrial production
used in industry shifts (see pp 64-67). is located outside of China,
from China to other with India, Other Asia and
After tripling over the past 20 years, Africa accounting for around
developing countries Chinese industrial energy demand two-thirds of the increase in
in the ET scenario peaks in the industrial energy demand over
mid-2020s and gradually declines the Outlook.
thereafter. Some of this decline
stems from policy efforts to All of the net growth in industrial
improve the efficiency of existing demand is met by natural gas
industries. In addition, it reflects and electricity, with these fuels
the continuing transition of the accounting for around two-thirds
Chinese economy away from of the energy used in industry
energy-intensive industrial sectors by 2040. Coal consumption
towards less-intensive service and within industry declines as China,
consumer-facing sectors. the EU and North America switch
to cleaner, lower-carbon fuels,
partially offset by growth in India
and Other Asia.
31 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Non-combusted
Non-combusted use of oil, gas and coal grows robustly, despite
increasing regulation on the use of plastics
Non-combusted demand: By source Non-combusted demand: Oil demand
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The non-combusted use of oil, The growth of fuels as a feedstock Despite increasing regulation,
gas and coal, e.g. as feedstocks is slower than in the past, largely the use of oil as a feedstock
for petrochemicals, lubricants and reflecting the assumption that is the largest source of oil
bitumen, grows robustly driven by regulations governing the use demand growth over the
particularly strong growth in plastics. and recycling of plastics tighten Outlook (7 Mb/d); the contribution
materially over the next 20 years, of non-combusted use to the
In the ET scenario, the non- including a doubling of recycling growth of gas and coal demand is
combusted use of fuels grows by rates to around 30%. This reduces much smaller. The non-combusted
1.7% p.a., accounting for around the growth in oil demand by around use of oil accounts for around
10% of the overall growth in energy 3 Mb/d relative to a continuation 18% of total liquids consumption
demand. Oil-based fuels account for of past trends. (The impact of a by 2040, compared with 7% for
around 60% of this growth, followed worldwide ban on the use of natural gas and 3% for coal.
by natural gas (30%) and coal (10%). single-use plastics is considered
on pp 34-35).
33 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Non-combusted
Alternative scenario: Single-use plastics ban
Alternative scenario: increasing environmental concerns lead to a
worldwide ban on single-use plastics from 2040
Liquid feedstocks for single-use plastics Total liquids demand
Mb/d
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The ET scenario assumes that the and the overall growth of liquids
regulation of plastics tightens more demand is limited to 4 Mb/d,
quickly than in the past. But growing compared with 10 Mb/d in the
A substantial
concerns about the use of plastics ET scenario. tightening in the
means that regulation of plastics regulation of plastics
may tighten by even more. The scenario does not account for
the energy consumed to produce could significantly
The alternative ‘Single-use plastics the alternative materials used in reduce the growth
ban’ (SUP ban) scenario considers place of the single-use plastics, of oil demand
a case in which the regulation of and so represents an upper-bound
plastics is tightened more quickly, of the impact on liquid fuels.
culminating in a worldwide ban on
the use of plastics for packaging Indeed, without further advances
and other single uses from 2040 in these alternative materials
onwards. These single-use plastics and widespread deployment
accounted for just over a third of of efficient collection and reuse
plastics produced in 2017. systems, such a ban could lead
to an increase in overall energy
In this alternative scenario, demand and carbon emissions,
the growth in liquid fuels used and raise a number of other
in the non-combusted sector is environmental concerns, such as
reduced to just 1 Mb/d – 6 Mb/d increasing food waste.
lower than in the ET scenario –
35 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Buildings
Buildings account for over a third of global energy growth, driven
by increased power demand in the developing world
Growth of prosperity and Final energy consumption
energy use in buildings in buildings by fuel
Annual growth in 2017-2040, % per annum Billion toe
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The increase in prosperity and Energy growth in much of the
expanding middle class in the developed world and CIS essentially
Electricity provides developing world drives growing flat-lines as increasing activity is
most of the use of energy within buildings. offset by efficiency gains.
increasing energy
In the ET scenario, energy used in The vast majority of the growth in
used in buildings buildings grows (1.5% p.a.) more energy used in buildings over the
strongly than in industry or transport, Outlook is provided by electricity,
with its share of overall energy reflecting greater use of lighting
consumption edging up to around and electrical appliances and the
a third by 2040. increasing demand for space cooling
in much of the developing world
This growth is driven entirely (Asia, Africa and the Middle East)
by developing economies, as living standards increase.
where improving wealth and
living standards allows people There is also small increase in gas
to live and work in greater comfort. consumption, which gains share
from both coal and oil in space
heating and cooking.
37 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Industry and Buildings
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon industry and buildings
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon industry and buildings, driven
by efficiency gains, CCUS and circular economy
Energy demand growth in ET and LCIB scenarios Industry and buildings fuel mix (2040)
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Key points
In the ET scenario, the growth Energy use in industry and buildings
of energy used in both industry increases by only 0.3% p.a. in the
and buildings slows relative to the LCIB scenario, compared with 1.0%
Industry and buildings
past, as gains in energy efficiency p.a. in the ET scenario and 1.8% p.a. are the dominant
accelerate. The ‘Lower-carbon over the past 20 years. end-users of global
industry and buildings’ (LCIB)
scenario considers an even In addition, a rise in carbon energy and so have an
more marked slowing in energy: prices in line with that assumed important bearing on
in the Lower-carbon power scenario the energy transition
for industry, this reflects greater (pp 58-61) prompts a shift in the
gains in energy efficiency as fuel mix, particularly in industry,
recent trends in efficiency are away from coal towards gas and
accelerated, supported by an power and increases the use of
expansion of circular economy carbon capture use and storage
activities (re-use and recycling) (CCUS) in the industrial sector.
reducing demand for new
materials and products;
for buildings, these gains are
achieved via a combination of
retrofitting existing buildings and
stricter regulation of new buildings
and electric appliances.
39 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Industry and Buildings
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon industry and buildings
Carbon emissions fall in the LCIB scenario, largely in industry,
driven by efficiency and CCUS
Carbon emissions in industry and buildings Carbon emissions by sector
Gt of CO2
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In the LCIB scenario, CO2 emissions The reduction in carbon emissions
from industry and buildings scenario from buildings are more limited,
fall by 15% (3.9 Gt by 2040), and all stem from the efficiency
compared with an increase of measures applied to retrofitting
6% (1.7 Gt) in the ET scenario. existing buildings and tighter
efficiency regulations for new
The majority of these reductions buildings and appliances.
relative to the ET scenario are
concentrated in the industrial sector. The contribution of fuel switching
These gains are driven by the to the fall in carbon emissions is
accelerated efficiency gains and relatively small in both sectors.
the increase use of CCUS which, This partly stems from the
in the industrial sector, reaches difficulty of switching fuels for
around 2 Gt by 2040. The reduced some activities, especially high-
demand for new materials and temperature processes in industry.
products associated with the It also reflects that the benefits
increased adoption of circular of switching from existing fuels
economy activities also adds into electricity are mitigated without
to carbon savings in industry. a significant decarbonization of the
power sector (see pp 54-57).
41 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Transport
Demand for transport services grows strongly, but gains in energy
efficiency limit increases in energy used
Final energy consumption in transport: Final energy consumption in transport:
By region Growth by mode
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Rapid gains in energy efficiency The increase in energy consumed
limit increases in energy used in across different modes of transport
transportation despite rapid growth is affected by the pace of efficiency
in the demand for transport services. improvements. The efficiency of
the average internal-combustion-
In the ET scenario, the demand engine car improves by nearly 50%
for transport services almost in the major global car markets; truck
doubles, but quickening gains in efficiency also records substantial
engine efficiency mean that energy gains. As a result, the rate of
consumed increases by only 20%. demand growth in the road sector
decelerates significantly, leading
The growth in energy used in the slow-down in overall transport
transport is concentrated within demand growth.
developing Asia, which accounts
for 80% of the net increase, In contrast, the scope for further
as rising prosperity increases efficiency gains within aviation
demand for both the quantity and marine is more modest.
and quality of transport services. These modes account for nearly
half of the increase in energy used
in transport in the final decade of
the Outlook, even though their
combined share of total transport
demand today is only 20%.
43 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Transport
Transport demand continues to be dominated by oil, despite
increasing use of natural gas, electricity and biofuels
Final energy consumption in transport: Final energy consumption in transport:
Consumption by fuel Growth by fuel and mode, 2017-2040
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Key points
The transport sector continues Electricity and natural gas in
to be dominated by oil, despite transportation increase by
increasing penetration of alternative broadly similar volumes
Non-oil energy
fuels, particularly electricity and (120 Mtoe), with the increased sources account
natural gas. use of electricity concentrated in for over half of the
passenger cars and light trucks;
In the ET scenario, the share of oil and the rising demand for natural
increase of energy
within transport declines to around gas largely within long-distance used in transport
85% by 2040, down from 94% road haulage and marine.
currently. Natural gas, electricity
and biofuels together account for The use of biofuels increases
more than half of the increase in by just under 2 Mb/d (60 Mtoe),
energy used in transport, with each predominantly in road transport,
providing around 5% of transport with some increase in aviation.
demand by 2040.
An alternative ‘Lower-carbon
Oil used in transport increases 4 transport’ scenario (pp 48-51)
Mb/d (220 Mtoe), with the majority considers the scope for greater
of that demand stemming from fuel switching, as well as faster
increased use in aviation and marine, efficiency gains.
rather than road transportation.
45 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Transport
Electric vehicles continue to grow rapidly, with their impact
amplified by growth of autonomous vehicles
Passenger car parc and vehicle km electrified Change in the share of road passenger km
Share electrified Percentage point
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Key points
Electric vehicles continue to The rise in global prosperity leads to
grow rapidly, concentrated within a shift away from high-occupancy
Global prosperity and passenger cars, light-duty trucks road transport (buses) to private
autonomous vehicles (LDTs) and public buses. vehicles, reducing the global load
risk increasing factor for road vehicles (i.e. the
In the ET scenario, the number of average number of passengers
congestion electric vehicles reaches around per vehicle). This trend is
350 million by 2040, of which compounded in the second half
around 300 million are passenger of the Outlook by the falling cost
cars. This is equivalent to around of road travel associated with the
15% of all cars and 12% of LDTs. growing availability of low-cost
shared mobility services using
The use of electric passenger autonomous vehicles.
cars is amplified by the emergence
of autonomous cars (AVs) from The fall in the global load factor
the early 2020s offering low- for road vehicles and associated
cost, shared-mobility services, increase in road congestion is a key
predominantly in electric cars. challenge facing the global transport
As a result, around 25% of system over the Outlook.
passenger vehicle km are
powered by electricity in 2040,
even though only 15% of cars
are electrified.
47 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Transport
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon transport
Alternative scenario: a lower-carbon transport sector by increasing
efficiency, alternative fuels and shared mobility
Efficiency improvements 2017-2040 (%) Electrification of vehicle km by 2040 (%)
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Key points
Despite significant increases in increased electrification, including increasing the share of biofuels
vehicle efficiency and electrification, bans on sales of all internal- in road transport in the OECD
carbon emissions in the transport combustion engine cars in much and China to 20% by 2040 (and
sector in the ET scenario continue of the OECD and China by 2040 to 10% in the rest of the world);
to increase. or soon after; half of global sales similarly in aviation, increase the
of new trucks and buses are share of biofuels in jet fuel to 20%
The alternative ‘Lower-carbon electric or hydrogen-powered in the developed world by 2040;
transport’ (LCT) scenario includes a by 2040;
large number of measures designed car scrappage schemes which
to reduce carbon emissions in the increased penetration of shared reduce the typical lifespan of a car
transport sector, including: mobility services, including more from around 12 years to 8 years
consumer-friendly ‘mini-buses’, by 2040, improving the average
further tightening in vehicle increasing the share of passenger efficiency of the global car parc
efficiency standards, such that kilometres which are electrified and the pace of electrification.
the average internal-combustion- and helping to arrest some of
engine car in 2040 is around 55% the decline in the global road
more efficient than today; the pace ‘load factor’;
of efficiency gains in new trucks
and ships also increases;
49 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Transport
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon transport
Increasing efficiency, rather than fuel switching, is the main factor
causing transport carbon emissions to fall from current levels
Transport emissions in ET and LCT Road emissions in LCT scenario,
scenarios in 2040 2017-2040
Gt of CO2
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Key points
As a result of these measures, Compared to the current levels
CO2 emissions from transport of emissions, improving levels of
in the LCT scenario fall by 2% efficiency within transport mean that
(0.2 Gt) from 2017 levels, the rapid growth in the demand for
compared with an increase of transport services over the Outlook
13% (1.1 Gt) in the ET scenario. can be met with almost no increase
in energy consumption. The most
Compared with the ET scenario, important driver of these efficiency
the majority of the reduction gains is the significant tightening
in emissions stems from road in vehicle emissions standards,
transport, particularly via fuel much of which is already reflected
switching. This reflects the in the ET Scenario. The use of car
importance of road transportation scrappage schemes also helps to
relative to marine and aviation; improve average car efficiency.
and the greater scope to electrify
different aspects of road use. The contribution of fuel switching
Increased electrification accounts in reducing emissions from current
for around a half of the reduction levels is less significant. Increasing
in emissions relative to the ET electrification accounts for around
scenario by 2040. half of the gains from fuel switching,
with the majority of the remainder
reflecting greater use of biofuels,
which increase by around 4 Mb/d
to 6 Mb/d by 2040.
51 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Power
The world continues to electrify, led by developing economies,
with renewable energy playing an ever-increasing role
Growth in primary energy and inputs to power Fuel shares in power
Billion toe
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Key points
The world continues to electrify, The mix of fuels in global power
with power consumption generation shifts materially, with
growing strongly. renewables gaining share at the
By 2040 renewables
expense of coal, nuclear and hydro. overtake coal as the
In the ET scenario, around three- The share of natural gas is broadly largest source of
quarters of the entire growth in flat at around 20%.
primary energy over the Outlook global power
is used for power generation, with Renewables account for
around half of all primary energy around two-thirds of the increase
absorbed by the power sector in power generation, with their
by 2040. share in the global power sector
increasing to around 30%.
Almost all of the growth in power In contrast, the share of coal
demand stems from developing declines significantly, such that
economies, led by China and India. by 2040 it is surpassed by
Demand growth in the OECD is renewables as the primary
much smaller, reflecting both slower source of energy in the global
economic growth and a weaker power sector.
responsiveness of power demand to
economic growth in more mature,
developed economies.
53 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Power
The strong growth of power demand in developing economies
helps renewables penetrate, but also creates demand for coal
Change in primary energy Growth in carbon intensity and
in power 2017-2040 power consumption, 2017-2040
Billion toe % per annum
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The contrasting trends in power In contrast, the strong growth In the ET scenario, limits on the pace
demand in the OECD and of power demand in developing at which non-fossil fuels can grow
developing economies affects economies means there is greater results in a trade-off between the
the extent to which the power scope for renewables to increase. growth of power and the pace of
sector can decarbonize. But in the ET scenario, renewables decarbonization. Some countries and
do not grow sufficiently quickly to regions, such as China and Africa,
The slower growth of power meet all of the additional power are able to grow non-fossil fuels
demand in the OECD slows the demand, and as a result coal relatively rapidly and so
speed with which renewables can consumption also increases. achieve high levels of decarbonization.
penetrate since it is hard for a new In contrast, in some other regions,
renewable power station to compete limits on the extent to which
commercially against an existing non-fossil fuels can be increased
facility. In the ET scenario, there is commercially, means there is
some substitution of renewables greater reliance on coal, and so
for coal in the OECD, but the extent less decarbonization.
of this shift is limited by the pace
at which existing power stations
are retired.
55 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Power
Growth of renewables depends on technical progress and the
pace at which existing power stations are retired
Share of renewables in power, and CO2 emissions Power mix in 2040
Billion toe
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Key points
The outlook for renewables is The impact of these faster
underpinned by continuing gains technology gains is partly limited
in technology, but is also affected by the speed at which existing
by a number of other factors. power stations are retired,
especially in the OECD.
In the ET scenario, the costs of wind
and solar power continue to decline If, in addition to faster technological
significantly, broadly in line with their gains, policies or taxes double
past learning curves. the rate at which existing thermal
power stations are retired relative
To give a sense of the importance to the ET scenario, the reduction
of technology gains in supporting in emissions is doubled.
renewables, if the speed of
technological progress was twice as This suggests that technological
fast as assumed in the ET scenario, progress without other policy
other things equal, this would intervention is unlikely to be
increase the share of renewables sufficient to decarbonize the
in global power by around 7 power sector over the Outlook.
percentage points by 2040 The ‘Lower-carbon power’ scenario
relative to the ET scenario, described on pp 58-61 considers
and reduce the level of CO2 a package of policy measures aimed
emissions by around 2 Gt. at substantially decarbonizing the
global power sector.
57 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Power
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon power
Alternative scenario: a lower-carbon power sector is driven by
higher carbon prices and direct policy measures
Carbon prices Other policy measures
Real $/t of CO2
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Key points
The extent to which the global This is achieved via a combination conventional coal-fired power
power sector decarbonizes over of policies. Most importantly, stations in OECD banned from
the next 20 years has an important carbon prices are increased to $200 2030; worldwide ban from 2030
bearing on the speed of transition to per tonne of CO2 in the OECD by on new investment in non-CCUS
a lower-carbon energy system. 2040 and $100 in the non-OECD – coal stations; support for stronger
compared with $35-50 in OECD and deployment of nuclear and hydro
In the ET scenario, the carbon China (and lower elsewhere) in the power;
intensity of the power sector ET scenario.
declines by around 30% by 2040. support for higher R&D
The alternative ‘Lower-carbon Carbon prices in the LCP scenario investment, which is assumed
power’ (LCP) scenario considers a are raised only gradually to avoid to double the pace of
more pronounced decarbonization premature scrapping of productive technological progress;
of the power sector. assets. To help support carbon
incentives for investment in
prices, especially as their impact
carbon capture, use and storage
is building, a number of additional
(CCUS) in gas and coal-fired
policy measures are taken:
power stations.
59 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Sectors – Power
Alternative scenario: Lower-carbon power
The carbon intensity of the power sector declines by over 75% led
by renewables, greater use of CCUS, and less coal
Carbon intensity in ET and LCP scenarios Inputs to power by fuel
g of CO2 per kWh Billion toe
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Key points
The carbon intensity of the global Renewables more than account
power sector in the LCP scenario for the entire growth of power
Carbon prices account declines by over 75% by 2040 generation in the LCP scenario,
for nearly half the fall relative to the ET scenario. As a with their share of the global power
in CO2 emissions result, total CO2 emissions in the sector increasing to around 50%
LCP scenario fall by 25% by 2040, by 2040.
compared with an 7% increase in
the ET scenario. The share of natural gas in power is
broadly unchanged from its current
The most significant factor level, although by 2040 almost
underpinning this decarbonization half of all gas-fired generation is
is the higher carbon price, supported by CCUS. Gas with
which accounts for almost half
CCUS is more competitive than
of the carbon reduction. This is
coal with CCUS due to the greater
supported by the other measures,
carbon content in coal. In total,
especially during the first half
CCUS captures 2.8 Gt of CO2
of the Outlook as carbon prices
emissions by 2040 in the
gradually rise. The limit on the
LCP scenario.
speed with which carbon prices
can be increased without leading Coal is the main loser in the LCP
to scrapping of productive assets scenario, with its share declining
implies other policy measures from around 40% in 2017 to less
are needed to achieve significant than 5% by 2040.
progress over the next 20 years.
61 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Regions
Regional consumption
Fuel mix across key countries and regions
Regional production
Global energy trade
Alternative scenario: Less globalization
63 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Regions
A transition is underway in the global pattern of demand, with the
dominance of the developing world increasing
Primary energy growth
Primary energy consumption by region and regional contributions
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Key points
There is an energy transition China’s transition to a more
underway in the global pattern of sustainable pattern of economic
By mid-2020s India energy demand, with the developing growth means that by the mid-
is the world’s largest world increasing its role as the main 2020s India surpasses China as
growth market market for energy consumption. the world’s largest growth market,
accounting for over a quarter of the
In 1990, the OECD accounted growth in global energy demand
for almost two-thirds of energy over the Outlook. Even so, China
demand, with the developing world remains the largest market for
just one-third. In the ET scenario, energy: roughly double the size
that position is almost exactly of India in 2040.
reversed by 2040, with the
non-OECD accounting for over Africa’s energy consumption
two-thirds of demand. remains small relative to its size:
Much of the increase in energy in 2040 Africa accounts for almost
demand is concentrated in a quarter of the world’s population,
developing Asia (India, China, but only 6% of energy demand.
and Other Asia), where rising
prosperity and improving living
standards support increasing energy
consumption per head. See pp 22-25
for a discussion of the importance of
providing ‘more energy’.
65 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Regions
Differences in the fuel mix across regions have an important
influence on the energy transition
Primary energy consumption by region and fuel
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Key points
Differences in the fuel mix across In contrast, the share of coal
regions, and the extent to which within India declines only modestly,
that mix changes over the Outlook, driven by increasing coal
have an important bearing on the consumption within the Indian
energy transition. power sector (pp 102-103).
The two countries accounting for the The US and EU both start the
fastest growth in energy demand Outlook with relatively diverse
– India and China – both start with fuel mixes and, over the Outlook,
relatively coal-intensive fuel mixes. share similar trajectories of
declining shares of coal and
In the ET scenario, China’s coal oil offset by increasing use of
share declines sharply over the renewables and, in the US,
Outlook – falling from 60% in 2017 natural gas.
to around 35% in 2040 – largely
offset by increasing shares
of renewables and natural gas.
Indeed, in China, the growth of
non-fossil fuels (renewables plus
nuclear and hydro power) more
than matches the entire growth in
Chinese energy demand over
the Outlook.
67 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019Regions
The global pattern of energy production is shifting with strong
growth in US supply and slowing growth in China
Primary energy supply growth
Primary energy supply by region and regional contributions
Billion toe % per annum
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Key points
The global pattern of energy The growth of energy production Russia’s share of global energy
production is also shifting, in China slows markedly relative to production declines slightly over
with strong growth in US energy the past 20 years as China adjusts the Outlook, largely reflecting
production and a slowing in to a more sustainable pattern of an edging down in its share
the expansion of Chinese economic growth. Despite this of global gas production.
energy supplies. slowing, China is the world’s largest Even so, Russia remains the
source of growth in energy supplies world’s largest exporter of
US energy production increases over the Outlook, driven by rapid oil and gas. The changing
markedly in the ET scenario, growth in renewables and nuclear global pattern of energy trade
driven by increases in oil, gas, power (pp 104-109). and imbalances is considered
and renewables. The US is the on pp 70-71.
largest contributor to energy The Middle East maintains its role as
production growth until the a key source of energy, supported by
mid-2020s; after which growth the growth of OPEC oil production
slows as tight oil production in the second half of the Outlook
peaks and gradually declines. (pp 86-87), together with an
expansion in gas production in
Qatar and Iran (pp 94-95).
69 | BP Energy Outlook: 2019 edition | © BP p.l.c. 2019You can also read
