Brazil Economic Outlook - 1Q19 - BBVA Research

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Brazil Economic Outlook - 1Q19 - BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 1

Brazil Economic
Outlook
1Q19
January 2019
Main messages

 The Brazilian economy will grow 2.2% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020,
 stimulated by factors such as the expansive tone of monetary policy
 and the increase in confidence. However, prospects for growth
 recovery are now less positive, mainly due to the view that the
 global environment will be less favorable than previously expected

 We maintain the view that the new government will take measures to curb fiscal
 deterioration, including a reform of social security, which, however, would not be ambitious
 enough to trigger a better-than-expected macroeconomic scenario

 Inflationary pressures will continue to rise, mainly from the middle of 2019 onwards,
 reflecting the relative strengthening of demand as well as the exchange rate depreciation.
 In any case, the balance of risks for inflation has improved, which has created room for the
 central bank to postpone until the end of this year the beginning of the monetary tightening
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 3

Índice

01 Global environment: moving towards a soft-landing
    of global growth, amid high uncertainty

02 Brazil: the economy will grow 2.2% in and 1,8% in 2020

03 Brazil: forecast table
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 4

            01
        Global environment:
  moving towards a soft-landing of
global growth, amid high uncertainty
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 5

Global GDP will likely recover somewhat in 4Q18,
but the trend is clearly downwards

World GDP growth
(Forecast based on BBVA-GAIN, % QoQ)
                                                                                                                                                               Global growth is decelerating,
1.2                                                                                                                                                            but it remains solid
 1.2
                                                                                                                                                               The generalized deterioration of
                                                                                                                                                               industrial production and trade
1.0                                                                                                                                                            suggest a more evident impact of
 1.0                                                                                                                                                           protectionism

                                                                                                                                                               The strong moderation of industrial
0.8                                                                                                                                                            confidence extends to other
 0.8
                                                                                                                                                               sectors, but the growth of private
                                                                                                                                                               spending remains
0.6
 0.6                                                                                                                                                           The high uncertainty continues at the
                                                                                                                                                               beginning of the year and will continue
                                                                                                                                                               to weigh on the growth
 0.4
0.4
          Dec-13

                                          Dec-14

                                                                           Dec-15

                                                                                                        Dec-16

                                                                                                                                    Dec-17

                                                                                                                                                      Dec-18
                            Jun-14

                                                         Jun-15

                                                                                     Jun-16

                                                                                                                          Jun-17

                                                                                                                                             Jun-18
       Dec-13

                                 Dec-14

                                                    Dec-15

                                                                            Dec-16

                                                                                               Dec-17

                                                                                                                           Dec-18
                   Jun-14

                                           Jun-15

                                                                  Jun-16

                                                                                      Jun-17

                                                                                                                 Jun-18

                CI 20%                                       CI 40%                                       CI 60%
                Point Estimates                              Period average

Source: BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 6

Global trade: effect of both increased tariffs and uncertainty
on trade negotiations are now more evident

BBVA – Global exports of goods
(% YoY, 3-period moving average, nominal exports)
                                                                                                                                            World trade has shown strong volatility
10                                                                                                                                          due to uncertainty about trade
                                                                                                                                            disputes
 9
                                                                                                                                            The recent poor performance of
 8                                                                                                                                          exports in China is partly due to the
                                                                                                                                            previous front-loading of exports
 7
                                                                                                                                            triggered by the possibility of new tariff
 6                                                                                                                                          increases, but its downward trend is
                                                                                                                                            worrying
 5
                                                                                                                                            The worse-than-expected evolution of
 4                                                                                                                                          exports has also been observed in the
                                                                                                                                            rest of Asia and in Germany
 3

 2

 1

 0
     Nov-11

                       Nov-12

                                         Nov-13

                                                           Nov-14

                                                                             Nov-15

                                                                                               Nov-16

                                                                                                                                   Nov-18
                                                                                                                 Nov-17
              May-12

                                May-13

                                                  May-14

                                                                    May-15

                                                                                      May-16

                                                                                                        May-17

                                                                                                                          May-18

Source: BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 7

   Lower oil prices could drive global growth up by
   between one and two tenths in 2019-20

   Oil prices
   (Brent, USD per barrel)
                                                                    •   Oil prices may recover in the short
120 120                                                                 term due the announced production
                                                                        cuts
110 110

100 100                                                             •   However, the growing production in
                                                                        the US and lower global demand will
 90 90                                                                  push prices downwards more than
                                                                        expected throughout 2019-20
 80 80

 70 70                                                              •   The fall in prices will benefit world
                                                                        growth, but the effect on some Latam
 60 60                                                                  countries will be negative
 50 50
                                                                    •   Copper forecasts were revised
 40 40                                                                  downwards, due to lower world
                                                                        growth, while soybean forecasts were
 30 30                                                                  adjusted upwards, due to the
 20 20
                                                                        prospects for relaxation in the China -
    Nov-14

    Nov-15

    Nov-16

    Nov-17

    Nov-18

    Nov-19

                                                           Nov-20
     Mar-14

     Mar-15

     Mar-16

     Mar-17

     Mar-18

     Mar-19

     Mar-20
      Jul-14

      Jul-15

      Jul-16

      Jul-17

      Jul-18

      Jul-19

      Jul-20

                                                                        US trade relationship
     Jul-14

     Jul-15

     Jul-16

     Jul-17

     Jul-18

     Jul-19

     Jul-20
    Mar-14

    Mar-15

    Mar-16

    Mar-17

    Mar-18

    Mar-19

    Mar-20
    Nov-14

    Nov-15

    Nov-16

    Nov-17

    Nov-18

    Nov-19

    Nov-20

          Previous
           oct-18 forecasts (Oct/18)
                       Jan-19          Current forecasts

   Source: BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 8

Recent turmoil in the financial markets due to a risk
of a sudden adjustment of global growth

BBVA’s Financial Tensions Index
(Índex)
                                                                                                                            01                                02
1.5                                                                                                                         Developed markets (US)            EM remained relatively
                                                                                                                            are at the center of the          resilient despite the
                                                                                                                            episode, where financial          global mood and the fall
1.0
                                                                                                                            tensions have rebounded           in oil prices
                                                                                                                            sharply
0.5

                                                                                                                            03                                04
0.0                                                                                                                         Investors have                    The response of
                                                                                                                            withdrawn sizeable                central banks,
                                                                                                                            outflows from DM, but             particularly the Fed
-0.5                                                                                                                        EMs have failed to                showing higher
                                                                                                                            attract new flows                 prudence/patience, has
                                                                                                                                                              been key to halt tensions
-1.0

-1.5
                Sep-13

                                  Sep-14

                                                    Sep-15

                                                                      Sep-16

                                                                                        Sep-17

                                                                                                          Sep-18
       May-13

                         May-14

                                           May-15

                                                             May-16

                                                                               May-17

                                                                                                 May-18
       Jan-13

                         Jan-14

                                           Jan-15

                                                             Jan-16

                                                                               Jan-17

                                                                                                 Jan-18

                                                                                                                   Jan-19

         Emerging Markets                              Developed Markets

Source: BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 9

Still soft landing, but more uncertain due
to dependence on policies

           Worse macro outcomes                                            Higher financial stress
           Faster slowdown than expected                                 Risks of global growth hard landing
                (Protectionism+China)
                                                                            Tougher financial conditions
    Evidence that impact from US fiscal stimulus will
               fade earlier than expected

                              Three key assumptions in our projections:

   01                                                   02                                 03
   Easing US-China trade                                Orderly Brexit                     Fed and ECB: more
   tensions with no                                                                        dovish and with
   changes in the auto                                                                     more room of
   sector                                                                                  maneuver
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 10

Widespread downward revision of growth, with moderation
more evident in developed and emerging Asian countries

        US                               Eurozone

                                      
2019          2020                     2019      2020
                                                                                                               China
2.5           2.0                      1.4     1.4
                                                                                                        
                                                                                                        2019           2020

           Mexico                                                                                     6.0            5.8
       
       2019          2020

   2.0           2.2
                                                                      Turkey

                        Latam                                     
                                                                  2019      2020
                                                                                                            World
                 
                2019            2020
                                                                  1.0      2.5                       
                                                                                                     2019           2020
               2.1          2.4               Upward revison
                                              Remains unchanged
                                                                                                    3.5          3.4
                                              Downward revision

Source: BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 11

US: further growth slowdown due to the fading
of fiscal stimulus and financial volatility

US: GDP growth
(% a/a)
                                                                  A downward revision of GDP due to
                                                                  less optimistic prospects for private
                                             Current   Previous   investment and public spending

                                                                  Private consumption will moderate
                                                                  following lower taxes’ fading effects,
                                                                  and despite the strength of the labor
                                                                  market
                                 2.9%
                                  2.8%                            Inflation remains above the target, but
                                            2.5%                  will gradually converge to below-the-
                2.2%                        2.8%                  target levels in 2020
                                                       2.0%
                                                                  The downside risks have increased
1.6%                                                              due to the deterioration of the global
                                                                  environment; the risk of recession in
                                                                  the two-year horizon is also greater
  2016            2017            2018      2019 (f)   2020 (f)

(f) Forecast.
Source: BBVA Research , based on BEA data
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 12

China: policy priority is to avoid a hard-landing scenario

China: GDP growth
(%)
                                                                  Growth forecasts are maintained
                                                                  unchanged due to greater policy-
                                             Current   Previous   stimuli

                                                                  Supportive fiscal and monetary
                                                                  measures are being extended, but
                                                                  attempts are made not to worsen
                6.8%
                                                                  existing financial vulnerabilities
6.7%                             6.6%                             Protectionism remains the main
                                 6.5%                             risk. If its effects trigger additional
                                            6.0%                  stimuli, and the necessary
                                            6.0%       5.8%       deleveraging is slowed down, then
                                                                  a sharp depreciation of the
                                                                  exchange rate could be observed

  2016            2017            2018      2019 (f)   2020 (f)

(f) Forecast.
Source: BBVA Research, based on CEIC data
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 13

Global risks tilted to the downside: US recession fears, China’s
debt and trade war are the main sources of concerns

                                                                         Economic recession: increasing (trade concerns, political
                                                                         controversy -shutdown-, geopolitical issues, credit risk /
                                                                         corporate leverage)
                                                                         Protectionism: high. Negative spillovers on growth
                                                                         (investment, impact on certain sectors / states) and cost
                                                                         pressures
                                                              US         Fed’s exit: falling. Lower risk of overshooting (rates above
                                                                   CHN   neutral levels)

                                                                         Disorderly deleveraging: relatively higher. Growing debt
- Short-term probability +

                                                       EZ                overhang amidst further stimulus and flagging growth (also
                                                                         visible in household expenditure). Monitoring: RMB, corporate
                                                                         defaults, local government debt
                                                                         Protectionism: high. Big differences remain despite a potential
                                                                         trade deal in March19. Lack of advances in structural issues
                                                                         (intellectual property, FDI, WTO reform)

                                                                         Political concerns: relatively higher. Lack of advances in
                                                                         integration process on the eve of European Parliament elections
                                                                         • Brexit: risk of a cliff-edge Brexit in March19
                                                                         • Italy: political and policy uncertainty remains. Banking
                             - Severity (at global level) +                concerns rising
                                                                         Proteccionism: contained but it could be not discarded (autos)
                                                                         ECB’s exit risk: low. Pending on changes in the Board

Source: BBVA Research
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 14

        02Brazil:
the economy will grow 2.2%
    in and 1,8% in 2020
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 15

The government of Jair Bolsonaro begins, with
optimism regarding the evolution of the economy

Confidence indicators: cumulative increase
between September and December 2018
(Base-points change)                                                                          Confidence in the economy has increased
                                                                                              significantly
45
                                                                                              Financial markets are also more
40                                                                                            optimistic, mainly due to the liberal agenda
                                                                                              introduced by the new administration,
35                                                                                            which includes proposals for trade
                                                                                              liberalization, fiscal adjustment, economic
30
                                                                                              reforms, privatizations, etc.
25
                                                                                              Since September, the Sao Paulo Stock
20                                                                                            Exchange index increased 20% and the
                                                                                              exchange rate appreciated around 10%
15
                                                                                              Greater confidence will continue to favor
10                                                                                            recovery
 5                                                                                            However, optimism with the new
                                                                                              government will hardly remain at such
 0
        Confidence in the                Business                   Consumer                  high levels, among other reasons because
       improvement of the               confidence                  confidence                difficulties to approve reforms, with a
          economy (*)                                                                         fragmented and polarized congress, could
                                                                                              be higher than anticipated

(*) Increase in the proportion of the population that expects the economy to improve in the
coming months, according to Datafolha surveys.
Source: Datafolha, FGV, Fecomercio, BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 16

The most likely is that a social security reform will be approved,
reducing, but not eliminating, fiscal problems

                  Base                             Positive                              Negative
                  scenario                         alternative scenario                  alternative scenario

Social security   A not very ambitious social      An ambitious social security          A reform of social security is not
reform            security reform is approved      reform is approved                    approved

                  Public debt continues to rise,
                  although less than in recent     The conditions for public debt to
                                                                                         Public debt continues to
Fiscal outlook    years; new significant fiscal    trend down in the medium term
                                                                                         increase significantly
                  adjustments will become          are given
                  necessary

                                                                                         Stagnation or even a new
                                                   GDP growth converges to 3%
Macroeconomic                                                                            recession, in a context of
                  GDP growth converges to 2%       or even more if other economic
outlook                                                                                  growing doubts about the debt
                                                   reforms are approved
                                                                                         sustainability

Probability       60%                              25%                                   15%
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 17

We maintain our view on the local drivers of growth, but we revise GDP
forecasts downwards due to a less favorable global environment

                               2.4   %
                                                     2.2   %
                               (before)
                                                     (now)                      2.0      %
                                                                                                            1.8     %
                                                                                 (before)
     1.2    %
                                                                                                              (now)

    (unchanged)

      2018                                2019                                                 2020

    We keep our estimate for 2018 GDP growth            The 0.2 pp downward adjustments in our forecasts for 2019
unchanged at 1.2%, which would follow an expansion       and 2020 are due to global factors: lower global growth,
    of 1.1% in 2017 and the 7% GDP contraction           higher financial volatility (mainly in the first half of 2019)
        accumulated between 2015 and 2016                              and lower commodity prices
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 18

Growth in 2019 and 2020 will be supported mainly
by the expansion of investments and exports

Growth of GDP and its components(*)
(%)

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0

-2.5
                  GDP                   Investment   Private consumption   Public consumption           Exports                  Imports

       2018 (p)   2019 (f)   2020 (f)

(*) (f) Forecasts
Source: BBVA Research

       Expansive monetary policy and the increase in confidence                                  The depreciated exchange rate
       will stimulate the performance of private consumption and                                will continue to favor net exports
                        investment, mainly in 2019                                                     in the coming years
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 19

Inflation will continue to rise, but less than
previously expected

Inflation (*)                                                           Inflation closed 2018 at 3.8%, below both
(y/y %; end-of-period)                                                  the expected level and the 4.5% target for
                                                                        the period
7
                                                                        We anticipate that inflationary pressures
6
                                                                        will increase further, mainly from the
                                                                        second half of 2019 onwards, in line with
                                                                        the depreciation of the exchange rate, the
5                                                                       relative strengthening of demand and
                                                                        greater pressures from food prices
4
                                                                        Inflation would reach 4.5% at the end of
                                                                        2019 and 4.9% at the end of 2020, above
3                                                                       the inflation targets (4.25% in 2019 and
                                                                        4.0% in 2020)
2                                                                       This scenario for inflation is more benign
                                                                        than the one we had before as it
1
                                                                        incorporates the recent downward
                                                                        surprises in inflation figures, prospects of
                                                                        lower oil prices and weaker domestic
0                                                                       demand forecasts
        2016          2017            2018        2019 (f)   2020 (f)

    Current forecasts        Previous forecasts (Oct/18)

(*) (f) = Forecasts.
Source: BCB, BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 20

The better prospects for inflation will postpone the beginning
of the monetary adjustment cycle

Interest rates: SELIC (*)                                               With lower inflationary pressures and
(y/y %; end-of-period)                                                  the prospect of a more gradual
                                                                        normalization of monetary policy in
16
                                                                        developed countries, the central bank
                                                                        now has room to postpone the
14                                                                      beginning of the monetary tightening
                                                                        cycle
12
                                                                        More precisely, we expect the SELIC
10
                                                                        rate to start to be adjusted upwards in
                                                                        the second half of 2019, when inflation
                                                                        and expectations will likely be above
 8
                                                                        the targets
 6                                                                      The monetary policy reference rate
                                                                        (SELIC) would converge to 8.0% at
 4                                                                      the end of this year and to 9.0% in 2020

 2

 0
         2016            2017         2018        2019 (f)   2020 (f)

     Current forecasts       Previous forecasts (Oct/18)

(*) (f) = Forecasts.
Source: BCB, BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 21

      Primary fiscal deficits will decline but will continue to be a source of
      concerns, while external deficits will increase but will remain under control

      Primary balance and current account (*)                                                           Primary fiscal deficits will trend down,
      (% of GDP)                                                                                        thanks to the effect on revenue of higher
                                                                                                        GDP growth, a strict control of
4,0   4.0
                                                                                                        expenditures and one-off revenues
3,0   3.0
                                                                                                        Still, the adjustment of the fiscal balance
2,0   2.0
                                                                                                        ahead will be too slow

                                                                                                        In the coming years, the country will
1,0   1.0
                                                                                                        continue to produce primary deficits,
0,0   0.0                                                                                               which coupled with high interest
                                                                                                        payments will continue to prevent a clear
-1,0 -1.0                                                                                               improvement of the overall fiscal result
                                                                                                        and public debt, at least if a more
-2,0 -2.0                                                                                               ambitious social security reform is not
                                                                                                        approved
-3,0 -3.0
                                                                                                        With respect to the current account
-4,0 -4.0
                                                                                                        deficit, a gradual increase is expected in
-5,0 -5.0
                                                                                                        the coming years, but external accounts
                                                                                                        will continue to be no source of worry
                                                                           (f)

                                                                                       (f)

                                                                                             2020 (f)
                2011

                       2012

                              2013

                                     2014

                                            2015

                                                   2016

                                                             2017
                       2013

                              2014
        2011

                2012

                                     2015

                                            2016

                                                   2017

                                                               (f)

                                                                     2018 (f)

                                                                                 2019 (f)
                                                          2018

                                                                     2019

                                                                                 2020

               Current account
               Saldo por Cuenta Corriente Total fiscal
                                                 Saldoresult
                                                       fiscal primario
      (*) (f) Forecasts.
      Source: BCB, BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 22

The exchange rate will remain slightly more appreciated during the next
few months, but by the middle of the year it will start to depreciate again

Nominal exchange rate (*)                                                                                                                    After depreciating strongly between April
(Brazilian real/ US dollar)                                                                                                                  and September, the exchange rate
                                                                                                                                             appreciated around 10% in line with
4.3
                                                                                                                                             global markets and greater optimism
                                                                                                                                             with the Bolsonaro government
4.1

                                                                                                                                             The honeymoon of the financial markets
3.9                                                                                                                                          with the new government will help to
                                                                                                                                             maintain the exchange rate relatively
3.7
                                                                                                                                             appreciated in the coming months,
                                                                                                                                             despite the fact that in this period global
3.5
                                                                                                                                             volatility will remain high
3.3                                                                                                                                          However, starting in the middle of the
                                                                                                                                             year, the exchange rate will possibly
3.1
                                                                                                                                             begin to depreciate, as the difficulties in
                                                                                                                                             the approval of the reforms (especially
2.9
                                                                                                                                             the social security one) become more
                                                                                                                                             evident and in line with the expected
2.7
                                                                                                                                             moderation in commodity prices
2.5
      Jan-15
               Jun-15

                                                                                                                  Jan-20
                                                                                                                           Jun-20
                                 Apr-16

                                                            Jul-17

                                                                              May-18
                                                                                       Oct-18
                        Nov-15

                                                                     Dec-17

                                                                                                                                    Nov-20
                                          Sep-16

                                                                                                         Aug-19
                                                                                                Mar-19
                                                   Feb-17

(*) Forecasts from January 2019 on.
SourceBBVA Research
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 23

 03 Brazil:
forecast table
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 1Q19 / 24

Brazil forecasts

                                            2017   2018 (f)             2019 (f)              2020 (f)

 GDP                                         1.1       1.2                   2.2                   1.8

    Private consumption (%)                  1.3       1.9                   1.7                   1.6

    Public consumption (%)                  -0.9       0.0                  -1.1                  -0.9

    Investment in fixed capital (%)         -2.5       4.9                   6.5                   4.1

    Exports (%)                              5.7       1.8                   4.5                   4.1

    Imports (%)                              5.5       9.3                   4.3                   3.0

 Unemployment rate (average)                12.7      12.2                  11.1                  10.0

 Inflation (end of period, YoY %)            2.9       3.8                   4.5                   4.9

 SELIC rate (end of period,YoY %)           7.00      6.50                   8.0                   9.0

 Exchange rate (end of period)              3.30      3.88                  4.05                  4.05

 Current account (% of GDP)                 -0.3       -0.3                 -0.8                  -1.5

 Public sector primary balance (% of GDP)   -1.7       -1.9                 -1.4                  -1.0

(*) (f) Forecasts.
Source: BCB, BBVA Research
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