BREKO Broadband Study 2016 - Market survey among BREKO members Sources: BREKO network operators across Germany, if not indicated otherwise

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BREKO Broadband Study 2016 - Market survey among BREKO members Sources: BREKO network operators across Germany, if not indicated otherwise
BREKO Broadband Study
                                           2016
                                Market survey among BREKO members

Sources: BREKO network operators across Germany, if not indicated otherwise
BREKO Broadband Study 2016 - Market survey among BREKO members Sources: BREKO network operators across Germany, if not indicated otherwise
Executive Summary Broadband Study

    Digitisation – fully interconnecting all areas – carries a high potential
    for growth and prosperity

    Digitisation requires comprehensive deployment of optical fibre
    networks

    Status quo: in the absence of counter-measures, Germany will further
    fall behind

    Alternative network operators guarantee comprehensive optical fibre
    deployment

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BREKO Broadband Study 2016 - Market survey among BREKO members Sources: BREKO network operators across Germany, if not indicated otherwise
Germany on the path to digital transformation?
          Regional network operators are leading the way!

                                       € 78 billion
    € 0.6 - 1.2 billion        cumulative potential of value added                   20%
     GDP growth at 1%              through industry 4.0 by 2025                potential savings in
      increase in fibre         (equivalent to an annual growth of            administrative costs
         penetration                1.7% of gross value added)               through eGovernment
                                       (Source: Fraunhofer IAO)             (Source: European Commission)
      (Source: IW Consult)

                                     8.6                             80%
                             connected devices per            of FTTB/H deployment
                               inhabitant in 2019              by regional network
                                 (currently 4.6)                    operators
                                 (Source: Cisco)                  (as of end 2015)

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BREKO Broadband Study 2016 - Market survey among BREKO members Sources: BREKO network operators across Germany, if not indicated otherwise
Study by Prof. Dr. Nico Grove: Why fibre networks?
        Sustainable Deployment of Broadband Infrastructures

                         Source: Adam.J.W.C. (creative commons)

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8 Theses
          Sustainable Deployment of Broadband Infrastructures

    1   Infrastructure decisions are hardly reversible and create a path dependency.

        Sustainable infrastructure deployment takes the view of future needs set
    2   against known physical and economic drawbacks.

    3   Infrastructure supply creates and drives demand.

    4   The trend towards exponential growth of bandwidth is set to continue.

    5   Projections tend to underestimate future demand.

    6   The future of mobile is fixed.

    7   Download speed is not the only criterion determining Quality of Service.

        Fibre is the broadband infrastructure with the highest potential to comply with
    8   future quantity and quality requirements.

                                    Source: Grove (2016)

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Future bandwidth development
        Sustainable Deployment of Broadband Infrastructures

       Bandwidth development                                          WIK Study 2025

    Nielsen’s Law:
          (Supply drives demand)
          Bandwidth doubles every 21
           months
                                        Source: Grove (2016); Monti, A. & Schäfer, R. G. (2012):
                                        Marktpotentziale für hochbitratige Breitbandanschlüsse in
                                        Deutschland: Abschlussbericht, Presentation. Bad Honnef.
                                        WIK, Godlovitch, I., Lemstra, W., Pennings, C. & de Streel,
                                        A. (2016): Public Workshop: Regulatory, in particular
                                        access, regimes for network investment models in Europe
                                        (SMART 2015/0002). Brussels. WIK, Deloitte & IDATE.

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How “good” is broadband?
    Sustainable Deployment of Broadband Infrastructures

    Quantity                                 Application                  Bandwidth          Delay/    Jitter   Packet
     Maximum speed                                                                          Latency            Loss

     Up-/Download                           E Mail                       Low                Low       Low      Medium
     Average speed                          File Sharing                 High               Low       Low      Medium

                                             Web Access                   Medium             Medium    Low      Medium
    Quality
     Delay/Latency                          Remote Login                 Low                Medium    Medium   Medium

     Jitter                                 Audio on Demand              Low                Low       High     Low
     Packet loss                            Video on Demand              High               Low       High     Low
     DNS response time                      Telephony                    Low                High      High     Low
     Reliability
                                             Videoconferencing            High               High      High     Low
       (QoS: Quality of Service)

                             Source: Grove (2016); Tanenbaum & Wetherall (2011): Computer
                             Networks 5th Edition, Tanenbaum and Wetherall, Prentice Hall.

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BREKO member survey
    representative for the fixed broadband market in Germany

            151 network operators
            (265 members in total)
    • BREKO unites more than 80% of
      broadband network operators in
      Germany and thus represents “the
      voice of competition”

    •   The leading fibre association in
        Germany: 60% of competitive FTTB/H
        deployment by BREKO network
        operators

    •   Deploying fibre networks: Strong
        partners for cities and municipalities!

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BREKO network operators are the
           foundation of Germany's Gigabit Society

    Indicators of BREKO network operators in 2015
    Turnover: € 8 billion (+ 3%)                      Investment rates:
                                                       turnover: 24%
                                                         (Deutsche Telekom 17%)
                                                       EBITDA: 95%
        EBITDA:                                          (Deutsche Telekom 43%)
       € 2 billion              Investments:
        EBITDA                   € 1.9 billion                8.5 million
                                   (+12%)              fixed line connections
      margin: 25%
                                                                (+7%)

    Indicators do not include mobile
    € 9.5 billion invested since 2010;
    depending on the framework conditions, BREKO network operators predict a further increase
    of the 2015 investments by 15%

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Investment record: Alternative network operators
            invest in the networks of the future

                                                                 € 8.1 billion investments in
                                                                              2015

      Total investments since 1998:
                                                                                       53%
      • € 128 billion                                               47%
                                                                                       € 4.2
      • 53% of which by                                                               billion
                                                                   € 3.85
         competitors                                               billion

                                                              Deutsche Telekom     Competitors

                             Source: BNetzA, BREKO Research

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Status quo FTTB/H deployment in Germany

     FTTB/H total availability: 2.65 million households

                                                                                                        81% of FTTB/H
                                                                                                        deployment by
                                                                                                        alternative network
                                                                                                        operators
                                         0.87 million
                                            32%
                                                                      1.28 million
                                                                         49%

                                             0.5 million
                                                19%

                            BREKO network operators               Deutsche Telekom             Others

                                               Source: BNetzA, TüV Rheinland, BREKO Research

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BREKO … DEPLOYING FIBRE NETWORKS!

     BREKO network operators:
     300,000 km of fibre in total                                                                     8.3 million

                                                                            4.3 million
                                                                                                   4.2 million of which
                                    3.3 million
                                                                                                        FTTB/H

    2.4 million
                                                                    1.28 million of which FTTB/H

       2013                            2014                                   2015                  2016 - 2018

Number of households/businesses that have access to NGA networks* due to these investments

* NGA networks: ≥ 30 Mbps (definition by the European Commission)

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Broadband availability ≥ 50 Mbps in federal states for
                          households (fixed)
                Hamburg                                                                                  94.4%
                 Bremen                                                                                 93.4%
                   Berlin                                                                             90.1%
  North Rhine-Westphalia                                                                      76.1%
       Schleswig-Holstein                                                                    74.4%
                   Hesse                                                                71.4%
     Baden-Württemberg                                                                  71.4%
           Lower Saxony                                                                70.9%
                Saarland                                                               70.6%
        National average                                                              69.8% *
     Rhineland-Palatinate                                                            68.5%
                 Bavaria                                                             67.5%
            Brandenburg                                                      55.4%
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern                                                     52.5%
                Thuringia                                                50.4%
                  Saxony                                                 49.5%
           Saxony-Anhalt                                        41.9%

     * Including wireless: 70.1%
                                   Source: TüV Rheinland – end of 2015

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Availability of broadband connections ≥ 50 Mbps
                            for businesses

     Risk of a location disadvantage for the German economy

                                                                               Large businesses
                                                                         68%

                                               63%                             Medium size businesses
                                                                Average: 59%

                        58%                                                    Small businesses

                                                 Average rural area: 29%

                              Source: TüV Rheinland – end of 2015

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Fixed line network: Indicator of the digital economy
                                                                                                                              56
                                                                                                                            billion   80.4% (76% in
                                                                                                                             GB       2014) of mobile
                                                                                                                                      internet usage
     Fixed line data volume per year (incl. TV, streaming, M2M/IoT)
                                                                                                                                      takes place in WiFi
     Average fixed line data volume per connection and month (incl. TV, streaming)                                                    networks
                                                                                                                                      (Source: Mobidia)
     Mobile as share of total fixed line data volume

                                                                                                                                      85% of Germans
                                                                                                                                      do not want to do
                                                                                                                                      without fixed
                                                                                                                                      (only 65% in 2012)
                                                                                                                  14                  (Source: D21)
                                                                                                   11.8      billion GB
                                                                                               billion GB
                                                                                9.7
                                                            7.8            billion GB                                        110      Data volume is
                                           7
     4.6
                       5.5           billion GB
                                                       billion GB
                                                                                                                37
                                                                                                                             GB       expected to triple
                  billion GB                                                                       32
billion GB
                                        21.2              22.7
                                                                               27.3
                                                                                                   GB
                                                                                                                GB                    by 2019
                                                                               GB
                                        GB                GB                                                                 9%       (Source: IW Consult)
   1%
                                                                                                   5%           6%

 2010              2011               2012              2013                 2014               2015          2016          2020
                                                                                                            expected      expected

                                                                    Source: BNetzA, Cisco, BREKO Research

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Take-up of high bit rates is increasing
                                 significantly
          30.7 million (contractual) broadband connections in fixed line networks
                              by the end of 2015 (+1.1 million)

                                          +2.2 million
     44% 43%
                                          42%
                              40%
                                    36%
               -3.8 million
               29%
                                                                              +1.7 million                          2013
                                                                              21%                                   2014
                                                                        16%
                                                               13%                                     +1 million   2015
                                                                                                        8%
                                                                                                  5%
                                                                                             3%

      100 Mbps

                                           Source: BNetzA, BREKO Research

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Bandwidth demand 2025

                    “Top-Level” demand:                                                               Ca. 12.1 million households
                    1 Gbps and more downstream                                                                                      29.7%
                                                                                                         Ca. 300.000 businesses
                    600 Mbps and more upstream

                “High-Medium” demand:
                500-1000 Mbps downstream                                                                Ca. 19 million households   46.6%
                300-600 Mbps upstream

            “Medium” demand:                                                                           Ca. 3.5 million households
            150-500 Mbps downstream                                                                                                 8.7%
                                                                                                       Ca. 2.7 million businesses
            100-300 Mbps upstream

        “Low-Level” demand:                                                                           Ca. 3.04 million households
        Up to 150 Mbps downstream                                                                                                   7.5%
                                                                                                        Ca. 590.000 businesses
        Up to 100 Mbps upstream

     No broadband / Refusal                                                                           Ca. 3.06 million households   7.5%

                                                                                                     Ca. 40.7 million households    100%
          More than 75% of households will demand
          bandwidths greater than 500 Mbps by 2025

     * The demand estimates for businesses have not been updated
     but were included in the projections for private households
     without new calculations.

                                                           Source: WIK market potential model 2015

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Demand for high bit rate connections increases
          BREKO members’ expected average bandwidth demand (in Mbps) by 2025

                                       Download in Mbps        Upload in Mbps

                                                                                411

                                                      170                       200

                                                      100
                30
                10
                Present                                 2020                    2025
Examples for current offers on the market:
Vereinigte Stadtwerke: 1 Gbps symmetrical speed
Unitymedia: 400 Mbps download speed
RFT kabel: 400 Mbps download speed
1&1 Versatel: 1 Gbps symmetrical speed for business
customers

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Is Germany on the way towards the Gigabit Society?
         Households with available connection bandwidths ≥ 50 Mbps

           +670.000                +3.750.000                        +900.000

       61.60%   63.60%

                                                                                 2014
                                                                                 2015
                                           26.50%
                           17.10%

                                                                 4.40%   6.71%

           CATV                    VDSL                            FTTB/H

                           Source: TüV Rheinland – end of 2015

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What has vectoring contributed to the broadband target of
           the German Federal Government?
                            Households with connection bandwidths ≥ 50 Mbps

                                                                                               27.83                More than 2/3 of
                                             26.36                                             million              the investments
                                             million                                                                in 2015 have not
      23.72
      million                                                                                                       contributed to the
                                                                                                                    broadband
                                                                                                                    targets of the
                                                                                                                    Federal
                                                                                                           38%      Government but
                                                                                                         parallel   have led to
                                                                                                         roll-out   parallel
                                                             26%
                                                           parallel                                                 infrastructure roll-
                   18%                                     roll-out                                                 out
                 parallel
                 roll-out                                                         +3.87 Mio.
                              +2.48 Mio.
                 4.3         +5.12 million                 6.78           +5.34 million                  10.65
                million      connections                  million         connections                    million

            2013                                   2014                                             2015
NGA penetration ≥ 50 Mbps

Parallel roll-out ≥ 50 Mbps                   Source: TüV Rheinland für
                                              Breitbandatlas BMWi – end of 2015

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Vectoring in the nearshore area: Regulatory mandated
      overbuild of existing NGA infrastructures delays entire
                      broadband deployment
                 Deployment Deutsche Telekom                        Deployment alternative network
                                                                             operators
                 Requirements: none                               Requirements: high
                                                                     already 40% of all street cabinets covered in a
                                                                      deployment area and 33% more than Deutsche
                 Deployment deadlines*:                              Telekom
                   20% after 18 months                            Deployment deadlines*:
                   20% after 27 months (2018 target expired)        100% after 18 months
                   60% after 30 months (2018 target expired)
                                                                   Deployment technology:
                 Deployment technology:                             FTTB/H deployment of alternative network
                   FTTC/B/H taken into account                       operators (existing and future) is subject to
                                                                      regulatory mandated overbuild
                                                                   Substitute product:
                 Wholesale products:                                Without specifications on Deutsche Telekom’s
                   VULA (not available)                              VULA, no planning of migration, deployment and
                   Bitstream Layer 2 (Vectoring I decision)          business possible
                    mandated in 8/2013, to date not available

* After completing procedure for LLU reference offer
(not started yet)

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Challenges for BREKO network operators in 2016

     Vectoring in the nearshore area                  40%

                     Parallel roll-out               39%

                   Price competition                 38%

         Public funding programmes             29%

                          Financing      24%

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Where does Germany stand in the international
                       competition?
     According to the Digital Location Index, Germany ranks 6th in the global competition
     (Source: TNS Infratest/BMWi)*
     * Based on the degree of digitisation of business processes and in-house processes as well as the intensity of use of new digital
     technologies and services

     Share of the implemented digital potential in percent

                  USA                                                                                                                18

                    UK                                                                                                         17

              Sweden                                                                                               15

     The Netherlands                                                                                               15

               Europe                                                                              12

                France                                                                             12

             Germany                                                                         10

                   Italy                                                                     10

                           0         2           4          6             8            10         12       14           16          18    20

                                                        Source: Mc Kinsey Global Institute

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Infrastructure objective in Schleswig-Holstein is effective

Households covered with FTTB/H
(homes passed)

                                                 National average:
                                                 6.7%

                                                 NRW is the second
                                                 federal state with an
                                                 infrastructure
                                                 objective

* Below national average
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The BREKO Broadband Study shows:

Alternative network operators shoulder 80%
of the deployment with ultrafast fibre
connections

BREKO network operators are prepared to
take their fibre deployment to the next level

Current political and regulatory framework
conditions impede the urgently needed fibre
roll-out

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Areas of Action

                         Germany needs gigabit                          A regulatory framework                              A greater commitment to
     1. Infrastructure

                                                                                                  3. Framework Conditions
                                                       2. Competition
                         networks.                                      with the aim to secure                              statements within a
                         Only fibre-to-the-                             and guarantee effective                             market exploration
                         building/home provides                         infrastructure-based                                procedure and
                         the necessary capacity                         competition is a                                    investment protection
                         for a digitised economy.                       prerequisite for                                    can prevent strategic
                         In order for Germany not                       investment in FTTB/H.                               overbuild and thus
                         to fall further behind                                                                             promote FTTB/H
                         other leading industrial                                                                           deployment.
                         nations, a political target                                                                        Likewise, the regulatory
                         towards FTTB/H                                                                                     mandated overbuild
                         infrastructures needs to                                                                           under Vectoring II must
                         be established.                                                                                    be prevented.

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Backup

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Deutsche Telekom is still dominant in the access
                               segment
           Phone connections based on DT infrastructure          16%                                                 84%   2014

                                                                   18%                                               82%   2015

                        Phone connections retail market                                    44%                       56%   2014

                                                                                           45%                       55%   2015
Broadband connections DT market share (incl. resale und
                                                                                             49%                     51%   2014
                     bitstream)
                                                                                             49%                     51%   2015

Broadband connections DT market share (excl. resale and
                                                                                                 55%                 45%   2014
                      bitstream)
                                                                                                   59%               41%   2015

                       NGA connections (with bitstream)                                            60%               40%   2014

                                                                                                         66%         34%   2015

                    NGA connections (without bitstream)                                                        83%   17%   2015

                                     Competitors            Deutsche Telekom

                                                Source: Deutsche Telekom, BREKO Research

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Regulation is not an obstacle: Deutsche
                Telekom’s margin is highest in the regulated
                             domestic market
                                       2013           2014         2015

                       40% 40% 39%

                                                                           33% 34%   34%
      29% 29%   29%

                                                             23%
                                              20% 19%

                                                                                              9%   9%   9%

     EBITDA margin    EBITDA margin        EBITDA margin                  EBITDA margin     EBITDA margin
         group          Germany                USA                           Europe        systems solutions

                                      Source: Deutsche Telekom

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