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Bridging the emissions gap
- The role of non-state and subnational actors
Pre-release version of a chapter of the forthcoming
UN Environment Emissions Gap Report 2018
© 2018 United Nations Environment Programme

Acknowledgements
UN Environment would like to thank the Ministry for
the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety of Germany, the Ministry of Economic Affairs
and Climate Policy of the Netherlands and the Climate
Works Foundation for their support to the work of the
Emissions Gap Report.

This publication is part of a collaborative series of
reports by over 30 organizations released in concert
with the 2018 Global Climate Action Summit, which
showcase the extraordinary action of states, regions,
cities, businesses and investors – and assess the
opportunity for even greater impact.

In this specific publication we focus on the role of non-
state and subnational actors in enhancing global climate
ambition and bridging the emissions gap.

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Suggested citation
Hsu, A.; Widerberg, O.; Weinfurter, A.; Chan, S.;
Roelfsema, M.; Lütkehermöller, K. and Bakhtiari, F.
(2018). Bridging the emissions gap - The role of non-
state and subnational actors. In The Emissions Gap
Report 2018. A UN Environment Synthesis Report. United
Nations Environment Programme. Nairobi.
Bridging the emissions gap
- The role of non-state and subnational actors

Pre-release version of a chapter of the forthcoming
UN Environment Emissions Gap Report 2018
5

Executive Summary

          This publication is a pre-release version of a        However, this pre-release Emissions Gap Report
          chapter in the forthcoming UN Environment             chapter shows that the additional emission
          Emissions Gap Report 2018. It provides an             reduction contribution made so far by non-
          assessment of the role and potential impact of        state actors is still quite limited in relation to
          mitigation actions by non-state and subnational       what countries have already pledged (up to
          actors such as cities, states, regions, companies,    0.2-0.7 GtCO2e per year by 2030 compared
          investors and foundations.                            to full Nationally Determined Contribution
                                                                implementation, and 1.5-2.2 GtCO2e per year
          Many non-state actors are engaging in                 compared to current policy). A wider, more
          mitigation action, across sectors and regions         comprehensive overview of all non-state and
                                                                subnational climate action occurring globally is
          Non-state and subnational actors have the             limited by the current low level of available data
          opportunity both to be part of implementing           and lack of consistent reporting on tracking the
          mitigation commitments made at national level         impact of non-state and subnational climate
          and to go beyond current pledges and raise            action.
          ambition. The number of actors participating
          is rising fast: more than 7,000 cities from 133       Non-state and subnational actors are providing
          countries and 245 regions from 42 countries,          other crucial contributions that go well beyond
          along with more than 6,000 companies with             quantified emission reductions
          at least US$36 trillion in revenue have pledged
          mitigation action. Commitments cover large            Non-state and subnational actors provide
          parts of the economy and are gradually                important contributions to climate action beyond
          expanding in regional coverage. Many of the           their quantified emission reductions. They build
          actors are cooperating in what are called             confidence in governments concerning climate
          ‘international cooperative initiatives’.              policy and push for more ambitious national
                                                                goals. They provide space for experimentation or
          Other actors need to join                             act as orchestrators in coordination with national
                                                                governments for climate policy implementation.
          The numbers seem impressive, but there is             Initiatives and actors also incentivize, support
          still huge potential for expansion. Not even 20       and inspire additional climate action by
          percent of the world population is represented        exchanging knowledge and good practices, by
          in current international initiatives, and most        engaging in advocacy and policy dialogue, by
          companies around the world still can and need         assisting in formulating action plans, and by
          to act. On the finance side, a record of just over    rewarding and recognizing climate actions.
          US$74 billion of Green Bonds were issued in the
          first half of this year, but still only represent a   Improving performance and transparency
          very small fraction of the capital markets around
          the world.                                            Non-state actors should ideally adopt more
                                                                common principles when formulating their
          Emission reduction potential from non-state           actions. Such principles should include clear
          and subnational action could ultimately be vast,      and quantifiable targets based on relevant
          but the current impact is still low and hard to       benchmarks, technical capacity of the actors,
          track                                                 availability of financial incentives, and the
                                                                presence of regulatory support. Monitoring and
          The emission reduction potential from non-            progress reporting, which are generally weak at
          state and subnational actors is large. If             the moment, are essential to document tangible
          international cooperative initiatives are scaled      results and gain credibility. Governments can
          up to their fullest potential, the impact could be    play a vital role by stimulating this growing
          considerable (up to 15-23 GtCO2e per year by          movement, and can for example support
          2030 compared to current policy). If realized this    non-state actors by providing collaboration
          would be instrumental in bridging the emissions       platforms, capacity building and technical and
          gap to “well below 2 degrees Celsius”.                financial resources.
6    Bridging the emissions gap - The role of non-state and subnational actors

Bridging the emissions gap - The role of non-state and
subnational actors
Pre-release version of a chapter of the forthcoming UN Environment Emissions Gap Report 2018

Lead authors: Angel Hsu (Yale-NUS College/Data-Driven Yale), Oscar Widerberg (IVM, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Contributing authors: Amy Weinfurter (Data-Driven Yale), Sander Chan (DIE, Germany), Mark Roelfsema (PBL, The Netherlands),
Katharina Lütkehermöller (NewClimate Institute), Fatemeh Bakhtiari (UNEP DTU Partnership)

                         1 Introduction to the publication and                emission reductions from commitments
                         overview of its key findings                         currently pledged by individual actors compared
                                                                              to the Nationally Determined Contributions
                         Global climate change governance is diversifying     (NDCs) find that their additional contribution is
                         rapidly: in recent years, political attention has    modest.
                         been acknowledging the increasingly important
                         role of non-state and subnational actors such        Limited data transparency and a lack of
                         as cities, states, regions, companies, investors,    consistent reporting that tracks implementation
                         foundations, civil society organizations, and        of NSA climate action prevent a full picture of
                         cooperative initiatives.                             the global impact, although reporting practices
                                                                              are improving and clearer results are emerging.
                         This publication, provides an assessment             Nonetheless, there is still limited knowledge on
                         of non-state and subnational actors’ role in         the extent to which NSAs are implementing their
                         enhancing global climate ambition and bridging       actions and realizing their commitments.
                         the emissions gap, based on the most recent
                         literature.                                          NSAs’ contributions to climate change action go
                                                                              beyond direct emission reductions. For example,
                         Non-state and subnational actors (NSAs) can          they can play a key role in building confidence in
                         take individual action to address climate change,    governments concerning the implementation of
                         or they can cooperate with other actors and,         climate policies and inspire higher national and
                         frequently, with national governments. This          global ambition. In addition, NSAs can facilitate
                         report confirms that there is clear evidence         catalytic linkages, act as orchestrators, and
                         that NSAs are increasingly committing to             provide a basis for experimentation. Quantitative
                         individual climate actions and coming together       analyses that emphasize NSAs’ direct
                         in international cooperative initiatives. In all     contributions to climate mitigation may overlook
                         sectors and regions, more commitments have           these aspects of the critical role that NSAs can
                         been formulated and registered compared to           play in global climate change governance.
                         the assessment in the 2016 UN Environment
                         Emissions Gap Report (UNEP, 2016).                   In recent years, great progress has been made
                         Furthermore, it is worth noting that only a          in terms of understanding what fosters and
                         fraction of the NSA activity occurring globally is   influences their performance. Solid design
                         being consistently reported and quantified at the    principles and context markers are emerging,
                         international level.                                 including: effective leadership, permanent
                                                                              secretariat (for cooperative initiatives), clear and
                         The emission reduction potential from NSAs is        quantifiable targets, monitoring and progress
                         large and could, if fully implemented, contribute    reporting systems, technical capacity of actors,
                         significantly to bridging the 2030 emissions         financial incentives, sustainable funding, and the
                         gap. However, realizing this potential requires      presence of regulatory support. By following or
                         commitments and action that go far beyond            establishing these principles and contexts, NSAs
                         current pledges made by individual actors or         can help bridge the emissions gap and foster
                         single initiatives, and implies the scaling up of    credibility, and governments can help establish
                         multiple initiatives across sectors and regions.     the required support.
                         The few studies that estimate the 2030 global
7

The publication begins with a brief overview of                        Programme 2017–2018). To this end, round
the increasing engagement of NSAs in the United                        tables were organized on how climate action and
Nations Framework Convention on Climate                                various Sustainable Development Goals could be
Change (UNFCCC) process (section 2), before                            mutually supportive.
examining the landscape and trends in terms of
NSAs’ individual commitments and international                         During the Conference of the Parties in 2017, the
cooperative initiatives (ICIs) (section 3). Section                    champions were asked to align the Marrakech
4 provides an assessment of the emission                               Partnership with the 2018 Talanoa Dialogue that
reduction potentials estimated by the latest                           takes stock of the efforts of Parties towards
studies and looks at, non-quantifiable, roles of                       goals set out in the Paris Agreement and aims to
NSAs that have important implications for global                       inform the preparation of new or updated NDCs
climate change governance. The final section                           by 2020 (Decision 1/CP.23, Annex II). They also
summarizes some of the key ways forward for                            presented the first ever yearbook on climate
harnessing the potential of NSAs’ climate action                       action that reports on actions by non-Party
to bridge the emissions gap (section 5).                               stakeholders (which is the term the UNFCCC uses
                                                                       for NSAs) throughout the year. The yearbook,
2 Non-state and subnational actors and                                 including the forthcoming 2018 edition, is
climate change negotiations: from Paris                                expected to inform the Talanoa Dialogue. By April
to Katowice                                                            2018, 109 inputs from NSAs had been registered
                                                                       on the Talanoa Dialogue online platform, and
The 2015 Conference of the Parties to the                              more are expected in time to inform the political
UNFCCC held in Paris showed an increased                               phase of the Talanoa Dialogue, which will take
institutionalization of processes and engagement                       place at the Conference of the Parties in Katowice
of NSAs (UNEP, 2016). Specifically, the Paris                          in December 2018.
Agreement:
                                                                       In parallel with the UNFCCC process, national and
•      Encourages Parties to work closely with                         regional initiatives have emerged to stimulate
       non-Party stakeholders to catalyse efforts to                   and support NSAs in the European Union, Latin
       strengthen mitigation and adaptation action                     America and Asia, among others (Chan et al.,
       (paragraph 118)                                                 2018). Fossil Free Sweden (Fossilfritt Sverige), for
                                                                       instance, is an initiative launched by the Swedish
•      Encourages non-Party stakeholders to                            government in which a national coordinator
       register their climate actions in the Non-                      engages companies, municipalities and other
       State Actor Zone for Climate Action platform                    non-Party stakeholders in showcasing climate
       (paragraph 117)                                                 action, sharing experiences, and encouraging new
                                                                       actors to take on commitments. The Argentinian
•      Strengthens the technical examination                           government has launched the National Climate
       process on mitigation for the period                            Change Cabinet (NCCC) initiative, with a view to
       2016–2020 in various ways (paragraphs 109                       increasing the participation of businesses and
       and 110)                                                        civil society in tackling climate change nationally
                                                                       through technical round tables and coordination.
•      Convenes a high-level event building on                         In India, the Energy and Resources Institute’s
       the Lima–Paris Action Agenda during the                         Council for Business Sustainability has been
       period 2016–2020 in conjunction with each                       engaging corporate leaders in climate action
       session of the Conference of the Parties                        since 2001 (Chan et al., 2018).
       (paragraph 120)
                                                                       3 Overview of non-state and subnational
•      Appoints two high-level champions on                            actor initiatives and individual
       behalf of the President of the Conference                       commitments
       of the Parties to catalyse NSAs (paragraph
       121).                                                           Cities, states, regions, businesses, civil society
                                                                       and a range of other actors can take individual
The Decision also mandated a summary for                               and cooperative actions to address climate
policymakers based on more information                                 change. Acknowledging that action by NSAs
gathering and an analysis of the potential of, and                     comes in many forms, this section focuses
results from, NSAs (paragraph 111(c)). In sum,                         on two categories: actions by individual NSAs
the process leading up to the Paris Agreement                          (section 3.1) and cooperative actions through
and the outcomes of Decision 1/CP.21 have paved                        international cooperative initiatives (ICIs)
the way for an increasingly prominent role for                         (section 3.2), both of which are on the rise. By 30
NSAs under the climate regime to support Parties                       August 2018, just over 12,500 commitments to
in reaching the mitigation and adaptation goals.                       action had been recorded in the Non-State Actor
                                                                       Zone for Climate Action (NAZCA), the largest
The Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate                           online platform showcasing climate efforts by
Action was launched by the first two high-level                        subnational and non-state actors. Almost two
champions1 during the 2016 Conference of the                           thirds of these commitments are by individual
Parties to continue mobilizing NSAs, support                           actors, while just over one third are by cooperative
the implementation of the targets set out by                           initiatives (including international cooperative
the Parties, and align NSAs’ actions with the                          initiatives. See also Box 1).
Sustainable Development Goals (MP Work

1   Dr. Laurence Tubiana (France) and Dr. Hakima El Haite (Morocco).
8   Bridging the emissions gap - The role of non-state and subnational actors

                         Box 1 Defining international cooperative initiatives

                         Although there is no single definition of an international cooperative initiative (ICI), a number
                         of terms and common characteristics help characterize them. When non-state or subnational
                         actors from at least two different countries “adhere to rules and practices that seek to steer
                         behaviour towards shared, public goals” across borders (Andonova et al., 2017), they engage
                         in “transnational climate governance” (Andonova et al., 2009). Broader coalitions made up
                         of countries, companies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), academia, international
                         organizations or subnational public actors, such as cities and regions, form cooperative initiatives
                         (Blok et al., 2012). When these coalitions cross national borders they become “international
                         cooperative initiatives” (Widerberg and Pattberg, 2015).

                       3.1 Individual commitments by non-state                              governments to companies, investors, higher
                       and subnational actors                                               education institutions and civil society
                                                                                            organizations. These actors often pledge climate
                       Individual NSA climate actions take a variety                        action through a range of networks that collate
                       of forms, referred to in the literature as                           individual climate pledges and inventories (for
                       ‘commitment’, ‘action’, ‘initiative’, and ‘target’.                  example, C40 Cities for Climate Leadership) or
                       These generally refer to a “diverse set of                           reporting platforms such as the CDP (formerly
                       governance activities taking place beyond                            known as the Carbon Disclosure Project). The
                       strictly government and intergovernmental (or                        criteria for participation within these networks
                       multilateral) settings” (Chan and Pauw, 2014).                       and platforms vary: some networks require
                       When individual actors participate in ICIs or                        members to pledge specific commitments, such
                       transnational climate governance initiatives,                        as greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, or
                       they may define an individual commitment or                          to submit regular emissions inventories. Others
                       climate action according to the specific set of                      emphasize peer-to-peer knowledge sharing and
                       rules that an initiative or programme identifies.                    capacity-building, while some are membership-
                       When an NSA abides by that particular initiative,                    based networks that do not require actors to
                       it constitutes an instance of “participation”                        commit to specific goals.
                       (Andonova et al., 2017).
                                                                                            While these networks capture many NSA climate
                       The landscape of NSA actors and the                                  actions, they do not comprehensively cover all
                       commitments they pledge on climate change                            NSA climate actions occurring globally.
                       are varied, ranging from city, state and regional

                      Table 1: Examples of the growth in individual NSA actor participation from 2015 to 2017

                          Actor group                                2015                                    2017
                          Cities                                     7,025 from 99 countries,                7,378 from 133 countries,
                                                                     representing 11 percent of              representing 16.9 percent
                                                                     the global population                   of the global population
                          States and regions                         116 regions from 20                     245 regions from 42
                                                                     countries, representing                 countries, representing
                                                                     11 percent of the global                17.5 percent of the global
                                                                     population                              population
                          Companies and investors                    4,431 companies from 88                 6,225 companies and
                                                                     countries and over 400                  investors from 120
                                                                     investors, with more than               countries, representing at
                                                                     US$25 trillion in assets                least US$36.5 trillion in
                                                                     under management                        revenue
                          Banks                                      15 of the 20 largest banks              34 of the 57 largest
                                                                                                             banks, representing
                                                                                                             US$3.1 trillion in market
                                                                                                             capitalization
                          Higher education                           Not assessed                            700 colleges and
                          institutes                                                                         universities in the United
                                                                                                             States, with a total student
                                                                                                             population nearing 1
                                                                                                             million and a collective
                                                                                                             endowment of over
                                                                                                             US$250 billion
                       Data source: Hsu et al., 2015b; Hsu et al., 2016, Hsu et al., 2017
9

  Box 2 Framing climate action in developing countries

  Linkages between sustainable development and climate change provide a powerful rationale for
  climate action. Evidence suggests that citizens are more likely to take climate action, or to support
  government action on climate change, if the sustainable development benefits of these efforts
  are emphasized (Floater et al., 2016). Communicating the sustainable development gains that
  are often co-generated alongside climate mitigation or adaptation may be particularly important
  among NSAs in developing countries and the Global South.

  One example is the Indian city of Rajkot, which “has emerged as a climate innovator” by
  focusing on projects that deliver urban development benefits, and support climate action as
  a supplementary goal or co-benefit. The political feasibility of climate action increases when
  connected to “more familiar, and often more immediate, urban priorities” (Bhardwaj and Khosla,
  2017). A survey of various climate action experiments also found that climate actions were
  aligned with development priorities.

  However, if actions and policies that generate substantial mitigation or adaptation benefits are
  framed and registered according to their ability to reduce poverty, create jobs, foster economic
  growth, or protect public health, they may fall under the radar of climate accounting efforts. This
  might be one of the reasons for the lower representation of NSA climate action in developing
  countries and the Global South.

For instance, national networks of NSAs                  Subnational governments – cities, states and
and individual actions that are not reported             regions
in global climate action databases are not               There are several networks connecting city,
included in the analysis here (see also Box 2).          state and regional action on climate change.
Analysis suggests, however, that individual              Figure 1 provides an overview of some of these,
NSA participation through these networks                 illustrating the number of NSA city participants
has increased since the 2015 Paris climate               and their geographical distribution. Networks
negotiations (Table 1 - possible overlaps are            include the Global Covenant of Mayors for
not taken into account). These positive trends           Climate & Energy (GCoM), signed by 9,130 cities
indicate the continued and growing role of NSAs          representing 775.5 million people worldwide
in global climate governance. The following              or just over 10 percent of the global population
section captures an overview of some of these            (Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy,
NSA constellations and their membership.                 2018). The GCoM includes the EU Covenant

Figure 1: Regional distribution of NSA city participants in carbonn, C40 Cities, CDP Cities, Global
Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, and Climate Mayors

                                                         83%
                                                         Europe

      7%

  North                                                                                                        5%
 America                                                                                                     Asia and
                                                                                                            the Pacific
       no initiatives                                                             0.3%
       1-3                                                                      West Asia
                                                             2%
       3 - 10
                                                         Africa
       10 - 30
       30 - 100
                                                    3%
       100 - 330
       330 - 1,000                         Latin America
       1,000 - 3,000                     and the Caribbean

  %
       Share of actors
       worldwide

Source: Yale, NewClimate Institute and PBL (2018)
10   Bridging the emissions gap - The role of non-state and subnational actors

                        of Mayors for Climate & Energy that reports                               2018). The United States and China topped the
                        7,755 signatories with 252.6 million inhabitants                          list of countries where the most bonds were
                        within the EU (EU Covenant, 2018). All of these                           issued, and most proceeds support projects
                        members commit to either submitting individual                            in the energy, buildings, and land-use sectors
                        Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans or                            (Climate Bonds Initiative, 2018). The Low Carbon
                        pledging a 40 percent reduction in carbon dioxide                         Investment (LCI) Registry currently includes 53
                        emissions by 2030. ICLEI, a global network of                             investors from 21 countries, with US$50 billion
                        subnational governments, has developed the                                in low-carbon assets (Global Investor Coalition
                        carbonn Climate Registry that includes more                               on Climate Change, 2018) – a slight increase
                        than 1,000 cities, towns and regions, drawn from                          on the 2014 assessment, which found 45
                        89 countries and accounting for 9 percent of the                          investors reporting investments valued at US$24
                        world’s total population (ICLEI, 2018).                                   billion, most of which (44 percent) focused on
                                                                                                  renewable energy (Global Investor Coalition on
                        In terms of state and regional governments                                Climate Change, 2014).
                        taking action, the Compact of States and Regions
                        (2017) includes 110 regional governments from                             3.2 International cooperative initiatives
                        36 countries, representing 658 million people and
                        18 percent of the world economy and baseline                              By engaging large and growing numbers of
                        emissions of 3.9 GtCO2e. These governments                                NSAs, international cooperative initiatives (ICIs)
                        have committed to 290 climate actions focused                             can lead to considerable emission reductions,
                        on emissions reductions, renewable energy and                             provided that their stated goals are realized and
                        energy efficiency that are estimated to result                            emissions reductions do not displace action
                        in total (cumulative) emissions reductions of                             elsewhere (Graichen et al., 2017; Blok et al., 2012;
                        21.9 GtCO2e between 2010 and 2050, if climate                             Hsu et al., 2015; UNEP, 2015; Widerberg and
                        targets are reached on time (The Climate Group,                           Pattberg, 2015; see also section 4).
                        2017).
                                                                                                  In addition to direct emission reductions, ICIs can
                        Companies and investors                                                   play a number of other important roles, including
                                                                                                  providing proofs of concept for low-emissions
                        CDP reports that over 6,300 companies                                     development strategies, spurring technology
                        representing a combined purchasing power of                               development and diffusion, and helping generate
                        over US$3 trillion responded to their climate                             momentum for additional initiatives and
                        change questionnaire, and that over 650                                   activities (Weischer et al., 2012).
                        investors with assets of US$87 trillion participate
                        (CDP, 2018). In 2017, CDP recorded primary data                           Several databases collect information on ICIs.
                        from over 4,800 companies, of which 47 percent                            They vary in number of initiatives, often due to
                        noted an emissions reduction or renewable                                 different definitions of ICIs, purposes, focus
                        energy target (CDP, 2018).                                                areas, data collection methods and sources
                                                                                                  (UNEP, 2016; Widerberg and Stripple, 2016). The
                        A few reports detail financial investors’                                 summary of trends in this section focuses on
                        actions on climate change. The Climate Bonds                              mitigation-related ICIs and is based on data from
                        Initiative’s 2018 Green Bonds Summary found                               the Climate Initiatives Platform, which is regularly
                        that US$74.6 billion in green bonds were issued                           updated, includes clear criteria for inclusion, and
                        during the first half of 2018, by 156 issuers                             is publicly accessible.2
                        from 31 countries (Climate Bonds Initiative,

                        2   The Climate Initiatives Platform is hosted by UN Environment and the UNEP DTU Partnership. It includes ICIs that fulfil the following
                            criteria:
                            • Includes several non-state actors taking voluntary action, and may also include states;
                            •	Have an objective to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to increase resilience, or could bring about greenhouse gas emission
                               reductions or increased resilience;
                            • Have an international scope or the potential for significant impact on a global scale; and
                            • Have a focal point.
                            Source: http://climateinitiativesplatform.org/index.php/Climate_Database:About.
11

      Figure 2: Number of international cooperative initiatives launched each year, between 2000 and 2018

                         50
                                                                                                           44
                         40
                                                                                                      34
Initiatives launched

                         30

                         20
                                                                                   15
                                                                              12          11 10                       10
                         10                       7                      8                        7
                                        5     5       5    6     5   6
                                                                                                                  3         2
                                  1
                           0
                               2000                       2005                     2010                    2015            2018

      Source: Climate Initiatives Platform [accessed 1 July 2018].

        The main features of these ICIs are captured in                      Over the past two decades, the number of ICIs
        Figures 2 and 3.                                                     has grown significantly, with peaks in launches
                                                                             of new initiatives around large climate events
        Trend in numbers of ICIs                                             such as COP15 in 2009, the United Nations
                                                                             Climate Action Summit convened by United
        The Climate Initiatives Platform currently records                   Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in 2014,
        244 initiatives, of which 220 are mitigation-                        and COP21 in 2015 (Figure 2). The slowdown
        focused and are implemented in more than                             in the number of new initiatives in 2016, 2017
        one country.3 Since the 2016 UN Environment                          and 2018 may reflect a shift in focus towards
        Emissions Gap Report, 17 new initiatives have                        implementing the initiatives created in earlier
        been added to the platform.                                          years, as well as the importance of global
                                                                             political forums in catalysing the formation of
                                                                             ICIs.

      3                As at 25 August 2018
12   Bridging the emissions gap - The role of non-state and subnational actors

                        Figure 3: Overview of features of 220 mitigation-focused ICIs

                        Global and regional distribution of ICIs
                                                                                                        North                              Western                   Eastern
                                                                                 144                   America                             Europe                    Europe
                                                                                 Global (only)

                                                                                                        34                                  39                          31

                                                            220
                                                            Total ICIs
                                                                                                                                                                                        29
                        7                                                                                                                                   26                  Asia and
                        Unknown
                                                                                 25                                        25                                                  the Pacific
                                                                                 Global                                                                 Africa
                                                            44                   and regional
                                                                                                                  Latin America and
                                                            Regional (only)
                                                                                                                   The Caribbean

                        Sectoral coverage of ICIs                                                                                                       % of ICIs that include the given sector

                                                    70%              37%          30%            24%      22%              20%                  20%                 18%                   13%                      9%
                                         200

                                         150
                        Number of ICIs

                                         100

                                           50

                                            0
                                                  Energy      Industry and Transport Agriculture         Urban        Finance                  Other             Forestry               Buildings                 Waste
                                                                business

                        Type of commitment                                                                       Monitoring and reporting mechanisms

                        48 Quantitative goal                       167 Qualitative goal      Non-specific 5      165 Unclear                               Irregular or underway 4                               Regular 51

                        Lead organisation                                                                        Function
                                                                                                                                                                           121 Knowledge dissemination
                                                                                                                                               13 Financing                and exchange
                         57                                          International organisation
                              54                                     Network/Consortium/Partnership                                                                      Tech
                                                                                                                                                                             nic                      74 Knowledge
                                                                                                                 18 Fundraising                  din
                                                                                                                                                    g             120
                                                                                                                                                                                al
                                                                                                                                                                                   di                 production and
                                     50                              NGO/Civil Society                                                         un                  90
                                                                                                                                                                                                      innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                          al
                                                                                                                                           F

                                                                                                                                                                                            og

                                                      15             Academic/Research institution
                                                                                                                                                                                              ue

                                                                                                                                                                   60

                                                       13            Other intergovernmental organisation
                                                                                                                 18
                                                                                                                                                                   30

                                                        11           Business
                                                                                                                             I m ple m e

                                                                                                                                                                                                b u il d i n g

                                                                                                                 Goal
                                                        10           United Nations or Specialised agency        setting                                                                                          59
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Awareness
                                                              4      Financial institution                                                                                                                        raising and
                                                                                                                 44
                                                                                                                                                                                             c ity
                                                                                                                                 nta

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  outreach
                                                              4      National government                         Technical
                                                                                                                                    ti o

                                                                                                                                                                                             pa

                                                                                                                 operational
                                                                                                                                           n

                                                                                                                                                                                          Ca

                                                              3      Corporate                                   implementation
                                                                                                                                                                                                   59 Training and
                                                                                                                                                     Pol
                                                                                                                                                           it i c a l d i a l o g u e              education of
                                                              2      Local government                            24 Norm and                                                                       individuals
                                                               1     Other                                       standard setting
                                                                                                                                               28 Advocacy                                54 Policy planning
                                                                                                                                                                                          and recommendations

                        Note: Many initiatives are active in several regions and sectors, and include multiple lead organisations and functions. The numbers
                        and percentages in this figure include all recordings by initiatives, explaining why totals for some elements are higher than 220
                        initiatives and 100 percent.

                        Source: Based on data from Climate Initiatives Platform [accessed 24 August 2018].4

                        4                Numbers for the lead organizations, type of action, region, and year of initiation are taken from analysis conducted by and published on
                                         the Climate Initiatives Platform website at: http://climateinitiativesplatform.org/index.php/ICI_Analysis [accessed on 24 August 2018].
13

Regional participation
                                                                of 29 initiatives contained explicit emissions
As Figure 3 illustrates, many initiatives operate               mitigation targets tied to a particular year. A
in several regions. Although the overall increase               study conducted by UNEP (2015) used a similar
in recorded mitigation-focused ICIs since 2016                  approach to narrow a list of 184 initiatives
is relatively limited, regional participation in                down to 15. However, among initiatives with
ICIs has increased in nearly every region of the                clear emissions reductions targets, many have
world. The biggest increase is in Latin America                 made more ambitious emission reduction
and the Caribbean, where the number of ICIs                     commitments than national governments
has increased from 6 in 2016 to 25 in 2018. In                  (Graichen et al., 2017).
Western Europe, Asia and the Pacific, regional
participation has roughly doubled compared with                 Monitoring, reporting, and verification practices
2016. It is worth noting that global ICIs may be                also remain weak across ICIs: just under
active in regions with relatively low participation             23 percent of ICIs on the Climate Initiatives
in regional ICIs, such as South-Eastern Asia and                Platform noted regular monitoring or reporting
the Middle East. Furthermore, while ICI activities              mechanisms. Other studies also report relatively
have been concentrated in high- and middle-                     low percentages of initiatives with established
income countries (Chan et al., 2015; Chan et                    monitoring and reporting mechanisms, ranging
al., 2018; Pattberg et al., 2012), the number of                from 31 percent (Graichen et al. 2017), to 43
ICIs operating in lower-income countries grew                   percent (Pattberg et al., 2012) or 44 percent
dramatically between 2015 and 2017, rising                      (Chan et al. 2018). Hsu et al. (2015a) found that
by 56 percent in low-income countries, and 50                   more than half (18) of 29 ICIs announced at the
percent in lower-middle income countries (United                United Nations Climate Action Summit convened
Nations Climate Change Secretariat, 2017).5                     by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-
                                                                moon in 2014 included provisions for monitoring
Sectors                                                         progress, but that very few of these identified
                                                                specific indicators to track performance.
Most ICIs (149 out of 220) cover multiple                       Bansard et al. (2016) likewise noted that the
sectors, generally focusing on key sectors where                type and stringency of monitoring requirements
the mitigation potential is significantly higher                varied widely among city-focused initiatives.
than the emission reductions implied by current                 Furthermore, many initiatives do not conduct
policies and NDCs: the energy, industry, forestry,              or share cost estimates or feasibility studies,
transport, agriculture, and building sectors                    adding an additional barrier to efforts to assess
(UNEP, 2017). An ICI’s sectoral emphasis often                  the feasibility and identify potential barriers to
shifts according to the needs and capacities of                 initiatives (Roelfsema et al., 2015). Striving for
the regions where it is implemented. Actions                    “more and better” data collection (Widerberg
focused on resilience and agriculture, for                      and Stripple, 2016) from initiatives is required
example, are most commonly implemented in                       to facilitate efforts to assess ICIs’ progress and
low-income and middle-income economies, while                   anticipate their contributions to climate action
initiatives addressing the industrial sector are                and sustainable development efforts (Roelfsema
most prevalent in high-income or upper-middle                   et al., 2015; Widerberg and Pattberg, 2015;
income economies (Chan et al., 2018).                           Hsu et al., 2016). Some ICIs have developed
                                                                approaches that demonstrate how this could be
Setting goals and tracking progress                             accomplished. The Bonn Challenge, for instance,
                                                                maintains an interactive online dashboard
The percentage of ICIs that have set                            tracking its signatories’ commitments, and
quantitative goals remains low, at around 22                    their potential collective progress towards the
percent. Quantitative goals – defined as a                      initiative’s goal.6
specific, measurable goal made either by an
initiative or an initiative’s members – range                   Lead organization and secretariat
from focusing on emissions reduction (for
example, reduce emissions by a specific                         The existence of a secretariat and a lead
amount by a specific year), to fund-raising (for                organization is likely to influence ICI
example, raise, distribute or invest a specific                 performance (Pattberg and Widerberg, 2016).
amount of funds), to capacity-building (for                     Initiatives with a permanent secretariat report
example, reach a specific number of people or                   both higher-than-average potential emission
communities). Similar low levels of quantitative                reduction contributions in 2020 and 2030, and
goals are reported in other studies (Chan et al.,               higher indirect impacts, complementary goals
2018; Graichen et al., 2017; Hsu et al., 2015;                  and co-benefits, such as diffusion of information,
Michaelowa and Michaelowa, 2017; Widerberg                      political effects, technology development,
and Stripple, 2016; Pattberg et al., 2012).                     reduced air pollution, improved health, and
                                                                strengthened energy security and economic
Graichen et al. (2017) found that 75 percent of                 development (Graichen et al., 2017). Similarly, the
the 174 ICIs they surveyed either did not include               active involvement of NGOs, as either leaders or
sufficient information about their targets, had                 ICI members, has been shown to be associated
unclear goals, or did not propose concrete                      with higher potential emission reductions and
actions. Focusing on emissions reduction                        potentially larger co-benefits (Graichen et al.,
targets, Hsu et al. (2015) found that just 8 out                2017).

5   Part of the increase may include adaptation-focused ICIs.
6   See http://www.bonnchallenge.org/
14   Bridging the emissions gap - The role of non-state and subnational actors

                        Almost all (217) of the ICIs included in this         1.   Individual commitments: estimate the
                        report state that they have a secretariat, in many         aggregate impact on emissions from
                        cases hosted by one of the larger organizations            pledges by individual cities, regions or
                        participating in the ICI. Based on the information         business actors that commit to fully
                        in the Climate Initiatives Platform, it is not             implement the targets they set themselves.
                        possible to assess how many of these
                        secretariats are permanent. In fact, some             2.   Single initiatives: estimate the potential
                        studies suggest that most ICIs lack a permanent            impact on emissions from a single
                        secretariat (Graichen et al., 2017; Chan, 2018).           cooperative initiative goal, assuming this
                                                                                   is implemented by all actors under the
                        Functions                                                  initiative. Often, individual actors subscribe
                                                                                   to a collective cooperative initiative (which
                        ICIs primarily provide information and                     can be an ICI) that together sets a goal for
                        knowledge-related services to their participants           the initiative. The single initiative studies
                        (Figure 3). Although the distribution of functions         assess the emission reductions of the
                        has remained relatively stable over time, a few            initiative’s goals, rather than pledges
                        new functions have recently emerged, including             that individual actors take themselves.
                        financing and fund-raising. In a recent survey             The estimated emission reductions
                        of 75 ICIs, funding was found to be the most               subsequently involve some scaling up of
                        common challenge, reported by approximately                the potential.
                        30 percent of respondents (UNFCCC, 2017).
                        Meanwhile, financial and organizational capacity      3.   Scaled-up potential of multiple initiatives:
                        tends to be associated with high-performing                estimate the potential emission reductions
                        ICIs (Chan et al., 2015; Chan and Pauw, 2014;              from several initiatives that would occur
                        Galvanizing the Groundswell of Climate Actions,            if the initiatives reached a transformative
                        2015; Widerberg and Pattberg, 2015; Biermann et            impact at the sector- or economy-wide
                        al., 2007). The recent growth in ICIs’ fund-raising        level. These studies apply a range of
                        and financing activities is therefore promising            significant assumptions on how actions are
                        and may suggest increased efforts to address               expanded; from assuming that all members
                        the challenges reported.                                   within a network will adopt an ICI’s
                                                                                   ambitious emission reduction goal, to that
                        4 The potential contribution of non-state                  membership will grow to a certain number
                        and subnational actors to enhancing                        of actors and cover a certain number of
                        ambition and bridging the 2030                             additional sectors. These studies therefore
                        emissions gap                                              estimate greater reduction potential at the
                                                                                   sector- or economy-wide level.
                        NSAs contribute to global climate change
                        governance in numerous ways. At the
                        international level, there is particular interest
                        in how much NSAs could contribute to global
                        greenhouse gas emission reductions by
                        2030 and the extent to which these potential
                        contributions are already included in national
                        current policy and NDC estimates. Section
                        4.1 assesses the most recent studies on
                        these issues, while section 4.2 addresses the
                        questions related to tracking the progress
                        and results of NSA action. NSAs also play
                        a number of critical roles that do not easily
                        lend themselves to quantification, but may
                        nevertheless be important to enhancing ambition
                        and bridging the 2030 emissions gap. Section
                        4.3 provides a brief overview of such roles.

                        4.1 Estimates of potential emission
                        reductions in 2030 of non-state and
                        subnational actors
                        The 2016 Emissions Gap Report (UNEP, 2016)
                        published an overview of quantitative analyses
                        of the potential contribution of NSA actions to
                        global emissions mitigation in 2030, illustrating
                        a wide range of results. Since these estimates
                        were published, the number of studies that
                        quantify NSAs’ potential contribution to global
                        climate action has grown, with more networks
                        and researchers conducting analysis of
                        aggregate impact of member groups on global
                        emissions. These studies can be divided into
                        three categories:
Table 2: Potential greenhouse gas emission reductions of selected individual commitments and initiatives (in MtCO2e per year in 2025/2030, by study).

 Actors          1) Individual commitments                                             2) Single initiatives                                                  3) Scaled-up potential of multiple initiatives
 and
 sectors
                 CDP           ICLEI         Kura­        Roelf­        Yale, New-     Ameri­       Arup          The            Compact       Global         CDP and      Roelfsema      Graichen     Erickson   Yale,
                 (2016)        (2015)        mochi et     sema          Climate        ca’s         and C40       Climate        of Mayors     Covenant       We Mean      et al.         et al.,      and        New-
                                             al. (2017)   (2017)        Institute,     Pledge       Cities for    Group          (2015)        of Mayors      Business     (2018)         (2017)       Tempest    Climate
                                                                        and PBL        (2018)       Climate       and CDP,                     (2017)         (2016)                                   (2014)     Institute,
                                                                        (2018)                      Leader­       Compact                                                                                         and PBL
                                                                                                    ship          of States                                                                                       (2018)
                                                                                                    Network       and
                                                                                                    (2014)        Regions
                                                                                                                  (2017)
 Cities and                    179 by        360–560      3–30          1,550–         500 in       402                          740           1,290                                                   3,700
 municipa­                     2035          by 2025                    2,200          2025
 lities                                                                 (current
                                                                        policy
 Regions                                                                                                          550
                                                                        scena­
 Business        1,000                                                  rio 1a);       .026 in                                                                3,200–
                                                                        200–700        2025                                                                   4,200
                                                                        (NDC
                                                                        scenario
                                                                        1b)
 ICIs                                                                                                                                                                      5,500          5,000–                  15,000–
                                                                                                                                                                                          11,000                  23,000
 Number of       1,089         116 cities    54 cities,   25 cities     2,175          155          228           110            360 cities    7,494          5 ICIs       11 ICIs        19 ICIs      600+       21 ICIs
 actors or       compa­                      22                         compa­         busi­nes­    cities        regional                     cities         including                                cities
 initiatives     nies                        regions,                   nies,          ses, 115                   govern­                                     ~ 300
 quantified                                  250                        76 regions,    cities, 20                 ments                                       compa­
                                             compa­                     5,910          states                                                                 nies
                                             nies                       cities
 Baseline        Not           Not           Current      Current       Current        Business     Business      Compared       Business      Business       Current      Counter­       Current      Current    Current
 scenario of     specified     specified     national     national      policy         as usual     as usual      to             as usual      as usual       national     factual        national     policy     policy
 the study       - variable    - variable    policies     policies +    scenario                    (no           ‘reference     (no policy    (no policy     policies     (no policy     policies     scenario   scenario
                 according     according     scenario     NDCs          and NDCs                    policy        techno­logy    baseline)     baseline)      scenario     baseline)      scenario                and
                 to            to                                       scenario                    baseline)     scenario’                                                               plus                    NDCs
                 individual    individual                                                                         that                                                                    NDCs                    Scenario
                 company       city actor                                                                         includes
                 actor                                                                                            current
                                                                                                                  policies
                                                                                                                  and the
                                                                                                                  NDCs
 Overlaps
 quantified?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               15

Note: This table only evaluates reports that include estimated impact in 2025/2030 and excludes those with pre-2025 or post-2030 assessment timeframes. Source: Adapted from Hsu et al. (in review).
16   Bridging the emissions gap - The role of non-state and subnational actors

                        Table 2 provides an overview of available studies,   A major question with respect to NSA climate
                        organized according to these three categories.       mitigation contribution is the extent to which
                        The table shows the wide range of potential          this leads to emission reductions that are not
                        emission reductions estimated in various studies     accounted for in current national policies or
                        – from companies based in the United States          in the NDCs. A limited number of the available
                        of America contributing 0.026 GtCO2e in 2025         studies assess NSA mitigation impact relative
                        (America’s Pledge, 2018) to as much as 15 to 23      to global current policy and NDCs based on
                        GtCO2e in 2030 based on an evaluation of the         an assessment of overlap scenarios (see
                        scaled-up potential of 21 cross-sector, multi-       Table 2). These quantitative assessments
                        actor ICIs (Yale, NewClimate Institute and PBL,      of overlap determine the ambition level of
                        2018).                                               NSA commitments vis-à-vis current policy
                                                                             scenarios and NDC scenarios by comparing
                        Due to the variable baseline methodologies           the rate of emissions decline in actors’ targets
                        and assumptions adopted by each study, as            (Kuramochi et al., 2017). For instance, if a city’s
                        well as different scopes in terms of actors and      emission reduction target results in a steeper
                        emissions covered, the wide range of overall         rate of decline in overall emissions compared
                        impact assessment is unsurprising. Some              to a national government’s NDC, a common
                        studies focus on NSA impact in a single country,     assumption is to consider the emissions
                        such as the United States of America (for            reductions that are beyond what a national actor
                        example, Roelfsema, 2017), while other single        has pledged as “additional” reductions.
                        initiative studies evaluate emissions savings
                        relative to business-as-usual scenarios for the      One analysis focused on the United States of
                        actor group, rather than comparing to a global       America (Kuramochi et al., 2017), found that 17
                        scenario.                                            states and 54 cities with recorded greenhouse
                                                                             gas mitigation commitments comprise 40
                        Only some studies report a range of results that     percent of national United States of America
                        take into consideration assumptions such as          emissions after accounting for overlaps.
                        a lower and upper range of results (Kuramochi        These commitments, which do not represent
                        et al., 2017; Roelfsema, 2017; CDP and We            pledges made after the national administration
                        Mean Business, 2016; Graichen et al. 2017;           announced its intent to withdraw from the Paris
                        Yale, NewClimate Institute, and PBL, 2018), and      Agreement in June 2017, were found to have
                        even fewer conduct sensitivity analyses. Not all     the potential to meet almost half of the United
                        studies include estimates of overlap between         States of America’s NDC by 2025. Another study
                        actor groups to adjust the resulting emissions       that quantified nearly 6,000 subnational and over
                        reductions accordingly. In some cases, studies       2,000 business commitments determined that
                        do not take into consideration overlap between       emissions would be 0.2 to 0.7 GtCO2e/year lower
                        actor groups’ impact, while others may select        in 2030 than with NDCs alone (Yale, NewClimate
                        for analysis only the most ambitious actor           Institute, and PBL, 2018, Figure 4).
                        pledges from the same geography or sector
                        (Yale, NewClimate Institute, and PBL, 2018;          Figures 4a and 4b illustrates the wide range
                        America’s Pledge, 2018). Other reports, such as      of potential emission reductions estimated in
                        the U.S. Climate Alliance (2017) report analysing    various studies. The figure includes the studies
                        15 regions’ contributions to greenhouse gas          from Table 2 that have clear and comparable
                        reductions or the Nordic Council of Ministers’       baseline scenario definitions by which to assess
                        report on NSAs in Nordic countries (Nordic           the magnitude of additional impact. Figure 4a
                        Council of Ministers, 2017), do not provide an       includes estimates from studies that aggregate
                        aggregate quantified assessment of impact.           from a bottom-up method of pledged 2030
                        They are therefore not included in Table 2.          commitments made by individual actors. As this
                                                                             figure illustrates, the pledged 2030 contribution
                        The studies included in Table 2 all assume           by NSAs, if fully realized, is estimated to lead to
                        various baseline scenarios against which they        limited additional emission reductions (ranging
                        assess additional impact of NSAs. These              from 3 to 700 MtCO2e, as indicated in Table
                        baseline scenarios range from study-specific         2) compared to the full implementation of the
                        “business as usual” or no-action scenarios, to       unconditional NDCs.
                        “current policy scenarios” that take into account
                        a range of existing government policies and          Figure 4b includes estimates of scaled-up
                        pledges, to an “NDC scenario” that assumes           potential emission reductions based on an
                        that countries implement their NDCs under the        assessment of single initiative goals and
                        Paris Agreement (Table 2; Hsu et al., in review).    multiple initiatives’ goals. These studies assume
                        Consequently, it is challenging to compare the       that all actors participating within their initiative
                        estimated impact across studies, although            fully implement and achieve the larger goal of
                        meta-analyses of methodologies applied in each       an initiative and therefore represent “scaled-
                        study demonstrate similar approaches, including      up” potential that is larger than the estimates
                        the use of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol               in Figure 4a. The studies behind the estimates
                        standard for distinguishing between direct           in Figure 4b apply a range of assumptions on
                        and indirect emissions (Hsu et al., in review).      how actions are expanded, from assuming that
                        Specifications of baseline scenarios by which to     all members within a network will adopt an
                        compare additional NSA contributions are also        ICI’s ambitious emission reduction goal, to that
                        increasingly converging to common terminology        membership will grow to a certain number of
                        and methods.                                         actors and cover a certain number of additional
                                                                             sectors.
17

 Figure 4: The range of estimated potential emission reductions in various NSA studies

  Figure 4a: Emission reduction potential                                                Figure 4b: Scaled up potential emission reductions
  of pledged commitments by NSAs                                                         based on single and multiple initiatives
                                           70
                                                        Individual commitments               Single Initiatives           Multiple Initiatives
                                                                                                                                                              No policy
                                                                                                                                                        65
  Annual GHG emissions in 2030 (GtCO2e)

                                                                                                                                                              baseline
                                                 0.03    0.5                               0.4   0.74 1.29
                                           60                                                                                                                 Current policy
                                                                                                                                                        59    scenario
                                                                                                                    5.5
                                                               0.46                                                                                           Unconditional
                                                                      1.85                                                                              55    NDC scenario
                                                                             0.02 0.45                                     3.7
                                                                                                             0.55
                                           50
                                                                                                                                  3.7

                                                                                                                                         8                    Baseline not based
                                                                                                                                                              on global scenario

                                                                                                                                                              Scaled up potential
                                           40                                                                                                                 based on
                                                                                                                                                              assumptions
                                                                                                                                                 19
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Notes
a) For studies that include ranges, median estimates are provided in Figures 4a and 4b.
b)Source:
   StudiesBased    on data
            for which       in Table
                       baseline          2.
                                   scenarios     are based on trajectories for the actor group as a whole, rather than compared to a global
  Note: a)are
scenario,   Forshown
                studies  thatnoinclude
                       with                ranges, that
                                  fill to indicate  median   estimates
                                                        the extent      are provided
                                                                    to which          in Figures are
                                                                             these projections   4a and  4b.
                                                                                                     comparable   to the Emissions Gap Report
scenariob)values
            S
             tudies
                  forfor which
                      2030        baseline
                             is less          scenarios are based on trajectories for the actor group as a whole, rather than compared to a global scenario, are
                                        certain.
            shown
c) Studies that  arewith  no fill to indicate
                     cross-hatched               that
                                          indicate    the extent
                                                   these  studiestoevaluate
                                                                    which these
                                                                            singleprojections areICI
                                                                                   and multiple   comparable   to than
                                                                                                     goals rather the Emissions
                                                                                                                       individual Gap Report
                                                                                                                                  actors’     scenario values for 2030 is
                                                                                                                                          recorded
            less pledges.
and quantified   certain. They rely on assumptions of future scaled-up impact and therefore represent potential rather than a quantified
analysisc)
         ofSindividual
              tudies that are cross-hatched
                        actors’   NSA pledges.indicate these studies evaluate single and multiple ICI goals rather than individual actors’ recorded and quantified
            pledges. They rely on assumptions of future scaled-up impact and therefore represent potential rather than a quantified analysis of individual
d) Studies that are outline cross-hatched indicate that both b) and c) applies.
            actors’ NSA pledges.
e) No extrapolation   of 2025
         d) Studies that         estimates
                          are outline          has been made.
                                           cross-hatched   indicate that both b) and c) applies.
                                           e) No extrapolation of 2025 estimates has been made.

 The figure indicates that NSAs have the potential                                                   Although the Non-State Actor Zone for Climate
 to contribute significantly to bridging the 2030                                                    Action acts as an umbrella for various NSA
 emissions gap, but that realizing this potential                                                    climate action repositories, no comprehensive
 requires commitments and action that go far                                                         database of NSA actions exists, with each NSA
 beyond current recorded and quantified individual                                                   adopting various criteria for inclusion that are
 actor pledges as well as single initiatives.                                                        often unclear or opaque (Widerberg and Stripple,
                                                                                                     2016). The reported data are often not suited to
 4.2 Tracking progress and results of                                                                calculating emissions impact, estimating overlap,
 non-state and subnational actors                                                                    or comparing NSA mitigation potential to the
                                                                                                     emissions scenarios of other actors, such as
                                                                                                     national governments.
 Data limitations and gaps
 As the previous sections illustrate, limited                                                        Key information, such as actors’ target and
 availability, consistency and comparability of                                                      baseline emissions, emissions scopes (that
 data pose significant challenges to evaluating                                                      is, direct or indirect), and inventory emissions
 the potential NSA impact on climate mitigation                                                      with historic time-series available, are often
 and their other benefits. For instance, Bansard                                                     inconsistently reported (if at all), with subnational
 et al. (2016) found in their evaluation of cities                                                   actors from the European Union reporting the
 participating in the C40 Cities for Climate                                                         largest amount of data required for mitigation
 Leadership Network that out of around 40                                                            impact assessments and the greatest gaps found
 members evaluated, nine different base years                                                        in emerging and developing countries (Hsu et al.
 with seven different target years were found,                                                       2018, in review).
 making an evaluation and comparison of targets
 and level of ambition difficult.
18   Bridging the emissions gap - The role of non-state and subnational actors

                            Box 3 Monitoring, reporting and verification success stories

                            Monitoring, reporting and verifying the emissions inventories and commitments of both national
                            actors and NSAs is key to global climate change assessment and governance, as there is a risk
                            that actors participate in transnational climate governance initiatives to “greenwash” or boost
                            their reputations, without setting or implementing meaningful climate action targets (Hsu et al.,
                            2016; Okereke, 2007; Mayer and Gereffi, 2010). Some NSAs, however, are making their emissions
                            inventories more transparent and making progress on implementing climate actions. For example,
                            Scotland, Wales, and the Australian Capital Territory all compile particularly comprehensive
                            greenhouse gas emissions inventories, which account for the emissions of one or more
                            greenhouse gases from sources within a defined space and time. Each government also goes one
                            step further, by having these inventories externally verified.

                            Scotland’s inventory (Scottish Government, 2017) covers a wide range of emissions sources,
                            and researchers draw on a variety of data sources – including government statistics, regulatory
                            agencies, trade associations, individual companies, and surveys and censuses – to develop
                            approaches that measure their contributions. Even as the inventory tailors and adjusts the
                            approach it uses to calculate emissions from a diverse range of sources, it remains consistent
                            with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s international guidance on national
                            inventory reporting.

                            Similarly, Wales aligns its inventory with international guidelines and provides extensive
                            information on its emissions, recording how much heat seven greenhouse gases7 could trap in the
                            atmosphere over a 100-year period (Aether and Ricardo Energy & Environment, 2016).8

                            While the Australian Capital Territory receives annual emissions data from a national database,
                            these data are often too coarse for the Territory’s monitoring goals. The district therefore collects
                            its own electricity, gas, transport and waste data, to supplement the information it receives from
                            the national government (Australian Capital Territory Government, 2017).

                        Note: This box draws heavily on insights shared by The Climate Group’s Compact of States and Regions initiative.9

                        Finally, as the figures in this report exclude                           Tracking progress on NSA implementation
                        national cooperative initiatives and networks,                           achievement of targets
                        they underestimate the scale and spread of NSA                           Although efforts to improve the monitoring,
                        climate actions, particularly in regions where                           reporting and evaluation of NSA actions are
                        actors have less access or capability to engage                          increasing (see previous section and Box
                        with transnational initiatives.                                          4), studies and information regarding NSA
                                                                                                 implementation – progress towards achieving
                        Some efforts under way to address data                                   targets and whether actors are meeting their
                        reporting and methodological consistency                                 goals – are still scarce (Chan et al. 2015; 2018).
                        should help improve the future data landscape                            Part of the difficulty of tracking implementation
                        for analysing NSAs’ contributions. For example,                          is that ex-post measurement of results is largely
                        the World Resources Institute’s Greenhouse Gas                           lacking, given the nascent nature of many NSA
                        Protocol Initiative released in 2015 (the Global                         climate actions. Therefore, most available
                        Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas                              studies quantifying the mitigation impact of
                        Emission Inventories (Fong et al., 2015)) and                            NSAs assess their potential emission reductions,
                        a consortium of non-government institutes,                               rather than ex-post or achieved results.
                        through the Initiative for Climate Action
                        Transparency (ICAT), are currently developing                            To bolster confidence in NSA contributions
                        guidance for NSAs, national governments and                              to bridging the 2030 emissions gap, data on
                        other audiences to account for and measure NSA                           implementation are critical to understanding
                        climate mitigation contributions (see also Box                           whether current targets and goals are being
                        3). These and other efforts should help improve                          reached and 2030 potentials are likely to be
                        consistency among NSA-reported data.                                     achieved.

                        7   Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, nitrogen trifluoride and sulfur hexafluoride.
                        8   In more technical terms, the inventory shares the global warming potential of these gases over a 100-year time horizon.
                        9   In particular, we thank Milimer Morgado and Jean Charles Seghers for their help in compiling these examples.
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