CHINESE GROCERY'S AGE OF EMPIRES - TWO GIANT GROUPINGS ARE CARVING UP THE MARKET - Oliver Wyman

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CHINESE GROCERY'S AGE OF EMPIRES - TWO GIANT GROUPINGS ARE CARVING UP THE MARKET - Oliver Wyman
CHINESE GROCERY’S
AGE OF EMPIRES
TWO GIANT GROUPINGS ARE CARVING UP THE MARKET
CHINESE GROCERY'S AGE OF EMPIRES - TWO GIANT GROUPINGS ARE CARVING UP THE MARKET - Oliver Wyman
CHINESE GROCERY’S
AGE OF EMPIRES
Chinese retail is evolving into two rival empires, each dominated by competing e-commerce
giants. One realm is centered on Alibaba, which owns two of China’s largest e-commerce
platforms, Taobao and TMall, as well as an electronic payments system, AliPay. The other is an
alliance between JD, a leading online retailer, and Tencent, an internet and digital-technology
conglomerate that owns WeChat, China’s most popular social-media app. These two empires
already own the digital lives of Chinese consumers today, where the average Chinese spends
over 60% of their mobile app usage on either ecosystem.

Now Alibaba and Tencent/JD have set their sights on physical retail, including acquiring stakes
in six of China’s top 10 hypermarkets, the country’s biggest electronics retailer, one of the largest
department stores and the largest commercial property and entertainment conglomerate.

Exhibit 1: Empire of JD/Tencent and Alibaba

              Experiece           Online             Physical               Online              Offline                Social
                                   retail             retail              influence           influence
JD/           Mobike, QQ         Vip.com, Little    Walmart,            Tencent Video,       WeChat Pay,             WeChat, QQ,
Tencent       University,        Red Book,          Yonghui,            Dianping,            JD logistics,           LY.com, Qzone,
              Tencent Cloud,     YHD.com,           Wanda,              Sogou, QQ            Meituan                 Pengyou.com
              QQ Gaming,         Zhuanzhuan         Carrefour           Music, WeChat
              DiDi ChuXing                                              Pay
Alibaba       Ali Health, Taobao Etao, Taobao,      Intime Retail,      MGTV,                YTO express,            Sina Weibo,
Group         Education,         Hema, Tmall,       New Huadu,          Yicai.com, 36Kr,     Cainiao, Alipay,        Momo,
              Amap.com,          Suning.com         Bailian,            SCMP, Alipay         Ali LST, Koubei         Qyer.com,
              Xiami, Eleme,                         Century Mart,                                                    AcFun, Youku
              DiDi ChuXing,                         Sanjiang, Sun
              Ali Cloud                             Art, Hema

Source: Oliver Wyman analysis

Underlying their growing dominance is Chinese consumers’ enthusiasm for online shopping:
In 2006, just 11 percent of the population enjoyed internet access; today, more than 460 million
Chinese – one-third of the population – regularly shop online.

Exhibit 2: Number of online shoppers in China from 2006 to 2016
IN MM
    500                                                                                                                 466.7
                                                                                                             413.3
                                                                                                361.4
                                                                                     301.9
    250                                                                    242.0
                                                     160.5      194.0
                                  74.0      108.0
                33.6      46.4
      0
               2006       2007    2008      2009     2010       2011       2012      2013       2014         2015       2016
Source: CNNIC, Statista 2017

Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                         3
Unlike in Europe and North America, food shopping – the largest retail segment – is moving
online too, encouraged by densely populated cities that favor rapid, efficient home delivery.
As a result, nearly 10 percent of the Chinese population shops for groceries online, compared
to just 3 percent in the United States and 6 percent in the United Kingdom, Europe’s highest
rate. And room for expansion remains: Already, an estimated 5 percent of Chinese shoppers
buy groceries exclusively online, indicating plenty of potential growth if more people stop
shopping for food in physical stores. To gain still more customers, the e-commerce giants are
introducing new shopping formats – dubbed O2O, or online-to-offline – that blend online
shopping’s convenience and wealth of information with the social experience and physical
contact with products that people enjoy in traditional, brick-and-mortar stores.

An important foundation of the tech giants’ retail innovations is their dominance in mobile
payments, of which 97 percent are processed by either Alibaba or Tencent. Mobile payments
are already used for 35 percent of grocery purchases, and even when customers shop outside
the big e-commerce platforms, they can still be a valuable source of data. Through the
payments systems, the empires learn where, when, and what customers are buying, and
complement it with the rest of their digital ecosystem to see which websites they like to
visit, the apps they use, and whom they follow on social media.

Exhibit 3: Development of mobile payment landscape in China
MARKET SHARE BY PLAYER                                               MARKET SIZE OF MOBILE PAYMENT IN CHINA
2017H1                                                               IN TN RMB
                             2%                                         120
                                                                                                               108
                                                                        100

      32%
                                                                          80
                                                                                             202%
                                                                          60
                                                     65%

                                                                          40
                                                                                                      35

                                                                          20
                                                                                               16
                                                                                        8
                                                                           0     1
            AliPay         WeChat Pay            Others
                                                                               2013   2014   2015   2016      2017F

Source: Mobile payment association, Yiguan, Union Pay, Oliver Wyman analysis

China’s traditional supermarkets and convenience stores can’t compete with this onslaught,
and both their like-for-like sales and their margins are declining (see Exhibit 4).

But they may survive in some form with help from the online giants themselves. Both Alibaba
and JD have developed logistics systems based on centralized, large-scale networks of
warehouses, which can replace traditional distribution. For supermarkets, the online giants
can thus provide the means to deliver fresh food quick enough to satisfy demanding Chinese
home cooks. They have also developed software that helps old-fashioned corner shops more
easily access and tap into their logistics system to directly order goods.

Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                                         4
Exhibit 4: Declining performance to traditional big box grocers
LFL REVENUE GROWTH RATE EVOLUTION BY PLAYER, 2010-2016                                      OPERATING MARGIN BY PLAYER
IN %                                                                                        2012 VS. 2016
                                                                                            IN %
     15                                                                                                       2012                  2016

     10
                                                                                                   CRE1                4.42          -4.63
      5
                                                                                                   Wumart1             3.5           2.03
      0

      -5                                                                                           Yonghui             3.0           3.0

    -10
                                                                                                   San Jiang4          4.2           2.9
              2010      2011      2012      2013      2014      2015        2016

1. 2015 number for CRE and Wumart is as of H1 FY2015; CRE figures are based on retail segment result figure as reported in the annual
report “Segment Result“, mainly consisting of CR Vanguard, Chinese Arts & Crafts, CRCare, VIVO, Pacific Coffee, etc. | 2. Based on retail
segment result figure as reported in the annual report “Segment Result” representing earnings before interest income, finance costs
and taxation, to which we’ve added back the annual net gain on disposal of non-core investments and valuation surplus on investment
properties | 3. As of 2015 due to data availability | 4. 2011-2014 LFL not available; 2015-2016 comparison on same store revenue growth;
includes convenience store etc
Source: Corporate annual reports, Investor presentations, Analyst reports, Oliver Wyman analysis

Both empires are building their O2O power through three plays, each of which blends their
online capabilities with offline stores in new ways.

Exhibit 5: Future of retail in China: Major plays by the empires

  1                                         2                                         3
     Experiments with new                      Strategic partnership with           Reinvention of traditional “mom and
     retail formats                            traditional big box retailers        pop” shops
     Start to open own O2O retail              Strategically invest in              Capture the B2B opportunity to have fewer
     formats to showcase what                  offline giants to facilitate         layers, higher efficiency, and more transparency
     “future” looks like                       their transformation and             within RTM, and disrupt traditional distributors/
                                               realize synergy                      wholesalers

                            Taobao.com,
                            YHD.com, JD,
                             Tmall.com                         Brands
                                                     Stay in the center of retail
                                                    ecosystem and interact with
                                                        every stakeholder
                        e-Commerce platform
                        Already became the
                        largest players in
                                                                   Ali/
                                                                JD’s retail
                                                                 empire
                                                                                                             3
                                                                                                   Ali LST, JD
                        China grocery market                                                       Xintonglu
                                                             Alibaba Group,
                                                               JD, Tencent        Lianhua,
    Consumers                                                                                                      (multiple layers of)
                                              Hema,                            Quik, Walmart,
                                            7 Fresh, JD                       Bailian, RT-Mart,                      Distributors/
                                           Convenience                                                                wholesalers

                                        1   store, Tmall
                                             Xiaodian
                                                                                  Yonghui,
                                                                                 Carrefour   2

                                                                Retailers

Source: Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                5
1   EXPERIMENTS WITH NEW
    RETAIL FORMATS
    The first play is the development of new formats that blend digital and physical features to
    create imaginative new solutions. Many large supermarkets worldwide now offer online
    services, where customers can order via a website and have food delivered. But these mainly
    work as parallel services to traditional shopping in physical supermarkets.

    Exhibit 6: Overview of new retail format development
                                     Alibaba Group                                   JD/Tencent                    Other players

                         On its own      By affiliated retailers       On its own     By affiliated retailers
                         • Hema          • Haiwuhui                    • 7 Fresh      • Super Species             • Fresh Ideas
                                           (New Huadu)                   (JD)           (Yonghui)                   (Bu Bu Gao)
                         • F2
                           Fast &        • RT-Fresh                    • Zhangyu      • Hyper-mart                • Sp@ce
                           Fresh         • RISO                          (Meituan)      (Bubugao)                   (Tian Hong)
       Fresh               (Hema)
    supermarket                          • Lianhua Jingxuan
                                           (Lianhua & Bailian)
                                         • Bingo Box

                                         • Auchan Minute               JD unmanned store                          • Bingo Box
                                           (Auchan)
                                                                                                                  • Xingbianli
                                         • Suning Biu
                                           (Suning)
     Unmanned
       retail

    Source: Analyst reports, Company annual report, Oliver Wyman analysis

    At Alibaba’s Hema stores, customers don’t have to go to checkout counters; they can pay by
    smartphone. Many don’t take their purchases with them; the store sends a delivery van. And
    some don’t even want all their food at home; supermarket staff members cook some of it for
    eating in the store.

    Exhibit 7: Key features of new “O2O” stores – Hema example
                ASSORTMENT
                AND                               STORE                            IN-STORE                       CHECK
                PRODUCT                           SET-UP                           EXPERIENCE                     -OUT
                DISPLAY

    1. WELL PACKED HIGH         2. BASKETS ON THE              3. IN-STORE DINING                       4. HEMA APP TO CHECK
       QUALITY FRESH               FLYING RAIL                                                             OUT AND ALIPAY TO PAY
       PRODUCTS
    • Get assured that products • Items picked from the        • Buy high quality sea food              • Get all purchase histories
       are kept fresh and good     store and put on a flying      with low price                          through App
       quality even with           rail to get it delivered to • Enjoy in-store dining                  • Facilitate next purchase
       packaging                   your home within 30 mins
                                                                  together with grocery                   online if customers want
    • Gradually get used to it  • Feel comfortable and            shopping                                to buy same products
       once customers build        convinced that the future
       trust with Hema             online order enjoy the
                                   same product quality as
                                   in offline stores

    Source: Oliver Wyman analysis

    Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                      6
Hema stores aim to give shoppers the best of both worlds: the chance to see food before
purchase combined with online shopping’s detailed product information, quick payment,
and home delivery: To ensure customers get their food fresh, it arrives at their homes within
30 minutes. JD is experimenting with unmanned stores, uses mirrors, cameras, and smart
shopping carts to see which products customers are looking at and taking from shelves.
Then the store can provide them with information – and check what they’re walking out with.

More generally, this kind of model will often feature in-house apps, digital price tags, self-
service checkouts, and automated shopping carts. In the background will be a double-duty
logistics hub that serves both the physical store and deliveries from O2O orders, whether
placed online in in-store.

Early signs indicate that O2O retail will go beyond an interesting experiment and significantly
change the retail landscape. Hema stores are already attracting young, wealthy, tech-savvy
shoppers, a coveted group. They increasingly trust the Hema brand and are more willing to buy
fresh food online.

Exhibit 8: Profile of Hema shoppers
 Hema shoppers are younger                       Hema shoppers have higher                       Hema Shoppers show more
 than other consumers                            income level than other                         interest in online shopping for
                                                 consumers                                       FMCG products

AGE MIX                                        INCOME MIX                                     ONLINE SHOPPING (FMCG ONLY)
WHICH AGE GROUP DO YOU                         WHAT IS YOUR MONTHLY HOUSE-                    DO YOU HAVE EXPERIENCE
BELONG TO?                                     HOLD INCOME?                                   SHOPPING ONLINE FOR FMCG
IN RMB                                         AFTER-TAX IN RMB                               PRODUCTS?
                                                                                              IN RMB
 100%
               4%              5%
               8%                                                        19%
                              13%
   80%                                                                                                    31%
                                                          41%                                                            38%
               34%
   60%
                              45%
                                                                         50%
   40%                                                    34%
                                                                                                          69%
                                                                                                                         62%
   20%         54%                                                       11%
                              37%                         19%
                                                                         19%
    0%                                                    6%
             Hema            Other                       Hema           Other                            Hema          Other
           shoppers1       shoppers2                   shoppers       shoppers2                        shoppers      shoppers2

30 and below      31-40                        5,000 and below       5,000 - 9,999                      Yes            No

41-50             51 and above                 10,000 - 19,999       20,000 - and above

1. Incl. all shoppers w/different shopping frequency in Hema | 2. Refer to those consumers who are aware of these new concept stores in
the catchment, but never visited it
Source: Consumer survey (N=656,Oct 26-Nov 1, 2017), Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                             7
We estimate that O2O – that is, sales via the app for home delivery, rather than products
checked out in the traditional way – contributes as much as 60 percent of Hema revenues.
Though stores with O2O features have been expensive to set up and their initial running
costs are high, the O2O contribution has boosted productivity, thus keeping losses marginal.
With further maturity and greater scale, they should soon be able to break even. We believe
there is potential for at least 1,000 stores in prime locations in major cities with total revenues
of 200 billion yuan.

Exhibit 9: P&L estimate of a Hema store
A MATURE STANDARD HEMA STORE AT 4,000 SQM
AS % OF STORE REVENUE

     25
                23-24             5

     20
                                                3-5

     15                                                         c.4

     10                                                                           c.3
                                                                                          5-7
       5

                                                                                                              c.-3%
       0                                                                                             3-4    (on avg.)

      -5
               Gross        Markdown           Store         In-store         Home      Logistics   Other   Operating
               margin                          rental       overhead         delivery                        profit
                                                                            overhead

Source: Store visits, Primary research, Research reports, Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                                           8
2   STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH
    TRADITIONAL BIG BOX RETAILERS
    The second major strategic play consists of partnerships between online stores and large,
    traditional supermarkets. Big-box retailers have tried their own O2O and online shopping
    services in the past. Hypermarket chain RT-mart launched B2C online platform Feiniu.com
    in 2014, while Carrefour China tried a similar system a year later in Shanghai. But these and
    other initiatives have failed.

    One reason for such failures is that traditional retailers lack distribution capabilities of their
    own: Fresh food typically requires 30-minute delivery, which is only possible with a logistics
    operation that is complex, sophisticated, and large-scale. Another is that they do not naturally
    generate O2O traffic. This is something that internet and e-commerce companies do through
    their contact at multiple touch points in customers’ daily lives, such as payment services, social
    media, and e-commerce purchases. So, traditional retailers have little option but to join one
    of the tech empires.

    A number of alliances have been announced in the past few years. The most recent came in
    January 2018, when Tencent and YongHui Superstores agreed to take a stake in Carrefour
    China, as part of a plan to work on smart retail, mobile payments, and data analysis.

    Exhibit 10: Key M&A/partnership deals in China grocery retail
           August                               May                              November
           JD acquired 10% stake in             Ali acquired 18% public shares   Ali invested 2.9 billion USD in
           Yonghui and formed strategic         of Lianhua supermarket and       Sun Art Retail Group and
           partnership                          became 2nd largest shareholder   formed strategic partnership
           JD, Yonghui                          Alibaba, LianHua                 Alibaba, Sun Art

            2014                    2015              2016                 2017                     2018           Today

     March                                 June – December                       January
     Tencent invested 214 million          Walmart bought c.10% of               Tencent and Yonghui agreed to
     USD to become 3rd largest             JD public shares and became           take a stake in Carrefour China
     shareholder of JD at that time        3rd largest shareholder of            business
                                           JD at that time
     JD, Tencent                                                                 Tencent, YongHui, Carrefour
                                           Walmart, JD

                                           November
                                           Ali acquired 32% shares of
                                           Sanjiang Group – the largest
                                           grocery chain in Zhejiang

                                           Alibaba, SanJiang

    Source: Oliver Wyman analysis

    Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                                          9
These partnerships show early signs of success thanks to complementary strengths, as
technology from the online retailers helps the brick-and-mortar stores generate incremental
revenue. For example, Alibaba installed shelves from its Tmall Supermarket online grocery
service in RT-mart branches and started to offer one-hour home delivery for products on
these shelves. Next, Alibaba is likely to help RT-mart optimize its in-store O2O infrastructure
through an improved app, greater integration with backend, traffic help from Taobao and
TMall, and support for delivery. In turn, RT-mart could strengthen Alibaba’s grocery supplier
management and store operation capabilities. It could also provide valuable data to Alibaba
on customers’ buying habits.

Exhibit 11: O2O business contribution in major grocery retailers
% OF ORDERS/PURCHASES PER DAY1

           Level of change

                       W/o eCommerce            W/ eCommerce partner                 W/ eCommerce partner
                           partner               but no store upgrade                  and store upgrade
           100                c. 1
                                                  95               90-95              85-90               c.85

            20                                                                                                                  O2O

              0                                                                                                                 In-store
                          Carrefour           Walmart            Sanjiang1            Super             RT-mart3
                        (before recent                                               Species2
                         acquisition)
O2O order #                  c.50               c.100            150-200              c.300              c.800
   per day

      Format                Hyper               Hyper              Super              Super              Hyper

 Ecommerce                   None                 JD              Alibaba               JD              Alibaba
    Partner
        O2O               Carrefour/          JD Daojia           Meituan           Yonghui/           RT-mart/
   platforms               Meituan             mainly             mainly            JD Daojia          Meituan

1. Not all stores operate O2O | 2. The online order # only accounts for c.5% in Yonghui Bravo Luban Rd. Store in Shanghai | 3. A new
format store located in Yangpu, Shanghai
Source: Primary research, Store visits, Desktop research, Oliver Wyman analysis

Walmart has a strategic partnership with JD which is using its O2O unit JD Daojia as the service
platform for more than 150 Walmart stores in order to attract online traffic. Walmart is currently
planning to upgrade its stores in China to support O2O services, for example by adding picking
areas in store warehouses.

Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                              10
3   REINVENTION OF TRADITIONAL
    “MOM AND POP” SHOPS
    The third strategic play is to reinvent small, family stores. Traditional stores still account for
    half the sales of fast-moving consumer goods in China, much of them going through the
    more than 7 million family-run stores that dominate retail outside big cities. Since early
    2017, JD and Alibaba have been converting these into franchises. These stores are rebranded
    under the Tmall/JD umbrella and offer new services, such as bill-paying. In addition, each
    store is unique in its product offerings, as store owners receive data-based curation advice
    so that they stock the optimal product selection based on its neighborhood: infant milk in
    a neighborhood with lots of babies and pet supplies if many residents keep dogs or cats.

    Stores’ procurement processes also improve dramatically. Small stores have traditionally
    been served by a network of multi-layered distributors and wholesalers, which often come
    with troublesome requirements such as minimum purchase quantities. The two e-commerce
    giants have developed ordering systems that store owners can operate on their martphones:
    Alibaba’s Ling Shou Tong (LST) system and JD’s Xin Tong Lu (XTL). Goods arrive from centralized
    warehouses in less than three days and often on the day the order is placed – in contrast to
    delays of weeks with traditional wholesalers. The scale of the alliances gives them leverage over
    the product brands, resulting in better margins both for the stores and for JD and Alibaba.

    Exhibit 12: Disruption of traditional distribution model with B2B ordering tools

                                                 Brands

                                Tier 1
                             distributors

                                                                        B2B ordering
                                                                        tools (mainly
                                    Less in #                             Ali and JD
                                    and layer                            ecosystem)
                                                                        JD Xintonglu,
                            Wholesalers/                                Ali LST
                              low tier
                            distributors
                             (gradually
                             phase out)

                          Chained retailers                         Independent retailers

    Source: Oliver Wyman analysis

    Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                        11
Exhibit 13: JD Xin Tong Lu vs. Alibaba Ling Shou Tong
            DIGITAL SELF-OPERATED RESELLER: JD XIN TONG LU                                    DIGITAL PLATFORM: ALIBABA LING SHOU TONG

                                                                                                                                      Regardless where
                                                                                                                                        inventory is,
                                                                                                                                       brands own the
                                                                                                                                          inventory

                                                                                    3a             Deliver
                                                                                                 product via
                                                                                               brands own
                                                                                                                   Brands’
                                                                                                                  warehouse

                                                                                              warehouse
                                                                                                                   Very small proportion
                                                                                                                  of the business for now

                       3                                  0                                          3b
                     Deliver                         Sell products                                  Deliver
                    products                           and send                                   product via
    Small                             JD’s            products to     Brands       Small         Internet B2B      Alibaba’s                      Brands/
   retailers                       warehouse          warehouse                   retailers         players’      warehouse                     distributors
                                                                                                  warehouse

          1       Place order       2     Arrange
                                          delivery
                                                                                          1       Place order
                                                                                                                                     2           Inform
                                                                                                                                               brands of the
                                                                                                                                            order details

                                        JD                                                                         Alibaba
      Information flow             Product flow

MAJOR DIFFERENCE OF TWO MODELS
Stock ownership                                        JD                                                Brands
(working capital management)
Level of transaction visibility                        Mid-depending on JD’ willingness                  High
to brands                                              to share information
Decision power of assortment                           JD to decide                                      Brands to decide
and pricing

Source: Primary Research, Oliver Wyman analysis

Tmall was planning on 10,000 such franchises in 2017, while JD has said it is aiming for one
million by 2021. In addition to the customer data and insights they can capture from these
expansions, Alibaba and JD are likely to dominate the growing market for ordering systems,
which could be worth around 400 billion yuan over the next five years.

Exhibit 14: Number of registered shops
JD XIN TONG LU                                                       ALIBABA LING SHOU TONG
IN MM
    0.8
                                                                                                       0.7
                                          0.5
    0.4
                       0.2
                                                                                    0.1
      0
                     2016                2017                                     2016                2017

Source: Oliver Wyman analysis

Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                              12
CONCLUDING REMARKS
As O2O becomes the new normal in retail, the two alliances will act as both players in and
facilitators of these new models. Traditional retailers may start to test dark stores in selected
regions, and even the smallest stores are using the giants’ ordering systems.

To facilitate these combinations of e-commerce and traditional retail, a wave of acquisitions and
partnerships has taken place over the past four years. Alibaba has made strategic investments
totaling $21 billion in retail alone in just the past two years. The two empires already account
for around a tenth of grocery retail, and these plays will attract more consumers through
different activities and channels. Their share of grocery shopping could increase to around
30 percent over the next five years, when it could be worth around 4,000 billion yuan in gross
merchandise value.

Exhibit 15: GMV projection in the long-term (FMCG)
IN BN RMB

                                                            Alibaba Group                                        JD/Tencent

         e-Commerce platforms2                 c.1,800 in GMV                                     c.500 in GMV
         (FMCG)                                Taobao.com, Tmall.com                              JD

                                               c.1,000 in GMV                                     c.300 in GMV
  +      “New concept”
         O2O retailers3                        Hema, Sun Art, New Huadu, Bailian,
                                               Sanjiang
                                                                                                  Yonghui Superstores, 7 Fresh,
                                                                                                  Walmart, Carrefour

  +      B2B initiatives                       c.200 in GMV
                                               Ali LST
                                                                                                  c.200 in GMV
                                                                                                  JD Xintonglu

  =      Total GMV                             c.3,000                                            c.1,000

1. 5 years’ projection; for the GMV of Hema, Ali LST, JD XTL, “theoretical” full potential is used for this calculation | 2. Ali current FMCG GMV
is c.410 bn, JD current FMCG GMV is c.100 bn; assume c.30% CAGR for both players in FMCG categories in the next five years; for JD, YHD
GMV is excluded as it remains a very small proportion (
So, retailers need to plan for how to function in a world dominated by the two empires. The
first step is to build a clear plan for strategic alliances that leverage the empires’ tools and
strengths. These include online traffic resources, technology capabilities that make better
use of physical retailers’ customer transaction data to inform buying and merchandising
decisions, and the integration of online and offline aspects of their business. In the case of
sub-scale smaller stores and chains that are rapidly losing their ability to compete, the online
platforms may prove to be of help in areas where physical hypermarkets traditionally had
an advantage, such as product assortment, procurement, and supply chain management.
However, if a store is not be viable even after these potential improvements, its owners should
consider switching to another business model, reducing size, or simply shutting down.

Brands, too, need to figure out the best ways to engage the new tech empires. Just as anchor
tenants in malls get preferential treatment thanks to their role in attracting shoppers,
brands should establish themselves as part of store networks’ core propositions, so that
they benefit from prominent display and favorable financial terms. They should work with
the tech giants to make distribution more efficient, while also maintaining relationships
with other distributors – if these survive – to avoid being completely dependent on the
e-commerce giants.

It is inevitable that the shape and future of the supermarket and hypermarket industry will be
strongly influenced by the tech empires. To survive and thrive, incumbent retailers need to
find ways to partner or co-exist.

Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman
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and state-of-the-art analytical techniques to deliver better results for our clients. We understand what it takes to win in distribution and
wholesale: an obsession with attracting, serving, and growing customers, constant dedication to operational excellence, and a relentless
drive to improve capabilities. We have a track record of helping clients win in this environment, creating real competitive advantage and
driving significant growth. We believe our hands-on approach to making change happen is truly unique – and over the last 25 years, we’ve
built our business by helping distributors and wholesalers build theirs. Oliver Wyman is a strategic advisor to the NAW and sponsors a
number of NAW roundtable events for companies with revenues $1 BN+.

www.oliverwyman.com

ABOUT JANCHOR

Established in 2009, Janchor Partners takes a long-term industrialist mindset in investing in companies that have superior business
models, favorable growth prospects and the potential to take advantage of long-term positive structural dynamics of Asia
countries and economies. Janchor Partners’ ability to invest for the long-term is strengthened by its investment
partners, comprising high quality global institutional investors including family offices, university
endowments, foundations and pension funds, who commit their capital to Janchor Partners
for multi-year periods. This in turn enables Janchor Partners to build strong and
meaningful relationships with its investee companies.

www.janchorpartners.com

AUTHORS

WAI-CHAN CHAN                                                           JOHN HO
Global Consumer Goods Practice Leader                                   Janchor
Oliver Wyman                                                            john.ho@janchorpartners.com
wai-chan.chan@oliverwyman.com                                           +852 3665 8823
+852 2201 1702
                                                                        SHEN LI
RICHARD MCKENZIE                                                        Janchor
Partner, Oliver Wyman                                                   shen.li@janchorpartners.com
Retail & Consumer Goods                                                 +852 3665 8823
richard.mckenzie@oliverwyman.com
+852 2201 1703                                                          YUBO GONG
                                                                        Janchor
JAMES YANG                                                              yubo.gong@janchorpartners.com
Principal, Oliver Wyman                                                 +852 3665 8823
Retail & Consumer Goods
james.yang@oliverwyman.com
+852 2201 1715

Copyright © 2018 Oliver Wyman
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