Cipla 'Playing catch-up' - June 24, 2016 - Spark Capital

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Cipla

      ‘Playing catch-up’

                                                  June 24, 2016

Dr HARITH AHAMED       harith@sparkcapital.in  +91 44 4344 0052
KRISHNA KIRAN KONDURI  krishna@sparkcapital.in  +91 44 4344 0037
Cipla                                                                                                                     CMP                  Target                  Rating
                                                                                                                         Rs. 476              Rs. 440                  SELL
‘Playing catch-up’; initiating coverage with SELL
Key investment thesis:
                                                                                                                                                Initiating Coverage
 Missed opportunity in the US, respiratory generics off to a disappointing start: Having opted for a partnership
  model in the US, Cipla lags large-cap peers by a significant margin in the scale of its US operations. The partnership            Date                        24 June 2016
  model also meant that Cipla was unable to fully monetize its capabilities across generic segments such as complex                 Market Data
  orals, injectables and respiratory. While the recent course correction towards a front-end model (including the $550mn
  acquisition of InvaGen in FY16) is a positive, we believe Cipla’s ramp up in the US is largely dependent on its                   SENSEX                      27002
  respiratory platform, where we see significant challenges                                                                         Nifty                       8270
 Domestic formulations and Cipla Medpro – steady performance to continue: With strong positions in respiratory                     Bloomberg                   CIPLA IN
  and anti-infective segments, Cipla’s domestic business has performed consistently over the years. Current low shares
                                                                                                                                    Shares o/s                  804mn
  in some of the larger therapeutic segments imply significant growth opportunities and the company has identified
  gastroenterology, urology, dermatology and paediatrics as focus areas. Low exposure to banned FDCs provides                       Market Cap                  Rs. 382bn
  comfort on near-term growth. In South Africa, Cipla Medpro is the 2nd largest generic player and we expect the                    52-wk High-Low              Rs. 748-457
  business to deliver steady growth on the back of strong positions in respiratory, HIV and CVS segments. Recent
                                                                                                                                    3m Avg. Daily Vol Rs. 1,096mn
  partnerships with Teva and Serum Institute should further aid growth
 Company in transition, high churn at the top adds to the challenge: Cipla is in the midst of significant strategic                Index member                BSE100
  transitions across its businesses 1) Strengthening of US front-end including integration of InvaGen acquisition 2) Roll-
  back of EU front-end strategy 3) Roll-out of respiratory franchise across regulated markets 4) Rationalization of
                                                                                                                                    Promoters                   36.8
  markets in EM portfolio 5) Significant step up in R&D programs (including clinical trials for inhalers) with targeted filings
  in complex segments. In our view, the recent churn in Cipla’s top management adds to the challenge of managing this               Institutions                34.2
  transition. Recent high-profile exits include Kamil Hamied (Chief Strategy Officer), Sameer Goel (Country Head –                  Public                      29.1
  India), Frank Pieters (Head of EU and Global Respiratory), Sudhanshu Priyadarshi (COO) and Rajesh Garg (CFO).
  While the company has found suitable replacements and has established a 6-member Management Council as part of                    Stock performance
  a recent restructuring, we believe top management exodus can be disruptive for a company in transition
 Escalating costs, deteriorating return ratios: Roll-out of the aforementioned strategic changes has led to escalating                                  1m         3m       12m
  costs, while the topline benefits of the same have been delayed vs. initial expectations. The impact is visible in                CIPLA                -4%       -11%      -22%
  declining margins (830bps decline over FY13-16) and return ratios (600bps decline over FY13-16). Despite the recent
                                                                                                                                    Sensex               7%         7%       -3%
  correction, we prefer to wait for further clarity and progress on some of the ongoing initiatives, before turning
  constructive on the stock. Initiate coverage with SELL. Our target price of Rs. 440 is 18x FY18E EPS of Rs. 24.4                  BSEHC                -1%        -3%      -8%

 Financial Summary (Consolidated)
 Year      Revenues (Rs. mn)      EBITDA margin %         PAT (Rs. mn)      EPS (Rs.)         P/E(x)         EV/EBITDA(x)                 ROE                        ROCE
 FY15            113,454                19.1%                11,808           14.7             32.5               19.5                   11.2%                       11.8%
 FY16            136,783                18.3%                15,059           18.7             25.5               16.9                   13.0%                       11.5%
 FY17E           160,514                17.5%                15,928           19.8             24.1               15.1                   12.4%                       10.6%
 FY18E           182,360                18.6%                19,690           24.4             19.5               12.5                   13.6%                       11.8%

                        Dr HARITH AHAMED       harith@sparkcapital.in  +91 44 4344 0052                                                                                    Page 1
                                                                                                                           Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK ),
                        KRISHNA KIRAN KONDURI  krishna@sparkcapital.in  +91 44 4344 0037                               Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset
Cipla                                                                                                                      CMP               Target          Rating
                                                                                                                         Rs. 476         Rs. 440              SELL
Business overview

Sales breakup (FY16)                                                  Cipla has the highest exposure to EMs among pharma peers

                           APIs, 5%
                                                                             7%
                                                     Domestic                19%                                                                      20%
                                                                                                 10%                                    23%                   24%
                                                   formulations,                                           41%       20%      31%
       RoW, 25%                                        38%                           36%
                                                                                                 42%                                                  48%
                                                                                                           15%                32%       43%                   40%
                                                                             73%                                     49%

                                                                                     44%                   38%
                                                                                                 31%                          28%       25%           26%     27%
                                                                                                                     14%
            South
         Africa, 12%                                                        ALKEM    ARBP        CDH      CIPLA      DRRD     GNP        LPC          SUNP    TRP
                         EU, 4%          US, 15%
                                                                              Domestic formulations    US formulations   RoW formulations     API / CRAMS / Others

Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research                          Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

Revenue breakup (Consolidated)

Rs. mn                                              FY14            FY15                 FY16                 FY17E                 FY18E              FY16-18E CAGR

Domestic formulations                              39,740          47,480               51,840                57,924                66,070                   13%

US                                                  7,443           9,033               21,032                35,055                40,802                   39%

Europe                                              5,688           4,333                6,020                   6,109               8,009                   15%

South Africa                                       15,331          14,481               15,675                17,383                19,071                   10%

RoW (ex South Africa)                              25,475          28,014               34,192                36,272                40,047                   8%

APIs                                                8,350           6,897                7,336                   7,776               8,242                   6%

Gross sales                                        102,027         110,238              136,095               160,518               182,242                  16%

Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                   Page 2
Cipla                                                                                                                            CMP          Target           Rating
                                                                                                                             Rs. 476          Rs. 440          SELL
Respiratory generics – key value driver for Cipla

 Respiratory generics, especially inhalers, has been a key area of competence for Cipla. After establishing a strong presence in the domestic
  market, Cipla has launched respiratory generics in key EMs and more recently in regulated markets. We take a close look at Cipla’s initiatives
  in respiratory generics till-date and evaluate potential opportunities going forward.

ICS + LABA is the largest respiratory drug class                                      Advair/Seretide is the largest ICS + LABA drug globally

                             LAMA
                                                                                               1.6            1.7                1.6
                                                                                                                                               1.5
                                                            ICS + LABA                         2.5            2.3                2.3
                       ICS                                                                                                                                    1.2
                                                                                                                                               2.2
                                                                                                                                                              1.6

                                                                                               4.0            4.0                4.3
                                                                                                                                               3.3            2.9
                     SABA

                                                                                             CY11            CY12                CY13         CY14            CY15
                    Anti-cytokines                   LABA
                                                                                       Advair sales ($bn)       US          EU     Emerging markets
                                       LAMA + LABA
Source: Teva, Spark Capital Research                                                  Source: GSK, Spark Capital Research

DPIs dominate the inhaled maintenance respiratory market for COPD and asthma

      EU                                                          US                                                 RoW markets

                                          29%                                                                                                           26%
                                                                                               39%

                                                                         61%
                      71%                                                                                                               74%

                                                                               pMDI      DPI
Source: AstraZeneca, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                     Page 3
Cipla                                                                                                                     CMP              Target          Rating
                                                                                                                        Rs. 476           Rs. 440          SELL
Inhaler launches in EU – disappointing start

 Over the past 3-4 years, Cipla has launched several respiratory products across key European markets, primarily focusing on MDI inhalers.
  These include mono-inhalers (such as beclomethasone, albuterol, fluticasone and ipratropium) and combination inhalers (salmeterol +
  fluticasone). Moving away from its long-standing partnership model, the company established a front-end team of ~150 members to drive the
  respiratory business across EU. In 2012, Frank Pieters (ex Teva) was appointed as Head of European Region and Global Respiratory Business,
  as part of the new front-end strategy.
 Given the relatively smaller sizes of ICS, SABA and LAMA monotherapies in Europe, ramp up of Cipla’s inhaler franchise in EU was dependent
  on its salmeterol + fluticasone MDI product (generic of GSK’s Seretide). In all EU markets except UK, DPIs account for ~80% of the ICS + LABA
  market and ramp up of Cipla’s salmeterol + fluticasone MDI sales in EU (ex UK) has been disappointing so far. Successful commercialization in
  UK (where MDIs account for ~80% of the ICS + LABA market) became crucial for Cipla’s respiratory efforts in EU. However, a significant delay
  in approval has diminished the salmeterol + fluticasone MDI opportunity for Cipla in UK. Sandoz and Mylan received approvals for their
  gSeretide products in June 2015 and Nov 2015, respectively.
 Further, Cipla has announced a roll back of its front-end strategy in EU, opting to return to a partnership-driven model across EU markets. We
  believe the change in strategy significantly diminishes the economics of its respiratory franchise for Cipla in EU. In the case of DPIs, filings in
  EU will leverage clinical trial data from US, which are yet to commence, and hence launches are possible only a few years out.

Cipla’s respiratory launches in EU                                                                  gSeretide launch in UK expected by the end of FY17

Active ingredient          Active ingredient type   Brand               Device        Device type
                                                                                                                                                            122
                           Nasal H2 antagonists +
azelastine + fluticasone                            Dymista             Nasal spray   -
                           corticosteroid
                                                                                                           94                        92             93
ipratropium + albuterol    LAMA + SABA              Duoneb              Respules      -
albuterol                  SABA                     Accuneb             Respules      -                                 71
mometasone                 Nasal corticosteroid     Nasonex             Nasal spray   -
budesonide                 ICS                      Pulmicort           HFA           MDI
fluticasone                ICS                      Flovent             HFA           MDI
salmeterol + fluticasone   LABA + ICS               Advair              HFA           MDI
ipratropium                LAMA                     Atrovent            HFA           MDI
                                                    Proair /Proventil                                    FY14         FY15         FY16            FY17E   FY18E
albuterol                  SABA                                         HFA           MDI
                                                    /Ventolin
beclomethasone             ICS                      Qvar                HFA           MDI                                      EU sales ($mn)

Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research                                                        Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                  Page 4
Cipla                                                                                                                                        CMP             Target           Rating
                                                                                                                                         Rs. 476             Rs. 440          SELL
Respiratory launches in US – material opportunities are many years away

 As part of its medium-term filing targets, Cipla plans to file 20-25 ANDAs in                            Cipla’s respiratory launches in the US
  the US in FY17, including ~5 respiratory filings. The company’s top-50 R&D                               Active ingredient            Brand                   Marketed by      Facility
  projects, with expected filings over the next 2 years, includes 8 respiratory
                                                                                                           levalbuterol HCl             Xopenex respules        Dr Reddy's       Indore
  projects.
                                                                                                           budesonide                   Pulmicort respules      Sandoz           Goa
 So far, Cipla’s presence in the respiratory segment in the US has been
  through partnered nasal sprays (Dymista) and inhalation solutions                                        azelastine + fluticasone     Dymista nasal spray     Meda             Goa
  (Pulmicort, Xopenex and Accuneb). We believe Cipla is yet to commence                                    ipratropium + albuterol      Duoneb respules         Cipla            Goa
  filings for inhaler products in the US. Management has guided for at least                               albuterol sulfate            Accuneb respules        Actavis          Goa
  one MDI filing in FY17.
                                                                                                           Source: Company data, USFDA, Spark Capital Research

 We believe DPI filings will require clinical trials and Cipla’s filings and launches in the next few years will be limited to monotherapy MDIs and
  nasal sprays (Nasonex and Flonase). We expect Cipla to file for combination MDIs (Advair, Symbicort, Combivent, Dulera) as well as mono &
  combination DPIs only on completion of clinical trials (which are yet to commence). We note that Cipla is significantly behind peers, with
  Mylan and Hikma having already filed ANDAs for substitutable Advair Diskus (DPI) generics in the US, with GDUFA goal dates of Mar 2017 and
  May 2017, respectively. Other players who are ahead of Cipla include Teva (phase III trial for gAdvair DPI) and Sandoz/Oriel (phase I trial for
  gAdvair DPI).
 We also note the complex IP landscape around many of these products in the US, posing an additional barrier for Cipla to overcome. Overall,
  meaningful monetization of US respiratory franchise is unlikely before FY20 and we await further progress before turning constructive on the
  opportunity for Cipla.

Potential respiratory opportunities for Cipla in the US
Active ingredient                 Active ingredient type      Brand                          Device         Device type        Sales ($mn)   Patents            Launch date*
fluticasone                       Nasal corticosteroid        Flonase                        Nasal spray    -                      240       Patents expired    4 generics in the market
salmeterol                        LABA                        Serevent                       Diskus         DPI                     70       Aug-16             FY19
albuterol                         SABA                        Proair /Proventil /Ventolin    HFA            MDI                    300       Dec-16**           FY18
beclomethasone                    ICS                         Qvar                           HFA            MDI                    200       Dec-17             FY19
mometasone                        ICS                         Asmanex                        HFA            MDI                    NA        Aug-17             FY18
mometasone                        ICS                         Asmanex                        Twisthaler     MDI                    NA        2017-2018          FY19/20
budesonide                        ICS                         Pulmicort                      Flexhaler      DPI                    200       May-18             FY19/20
mometasone                        Nasal corticosteroid        Nasonex                        Nasal spray    -                      449       Apr-18             FY19
fluticasone                       ICS                         Flovent                        Diskus         DPI                    150       Aug-16             FY19
Source: Company data, USFDA, Spark Capital Research; *earliest possible; **patent expiry for Proair

                                                                                                                                                                                   Page 5
Cipla                                                                                                                               CMP            Target             Rating
                                                                                                                                  Rs. 476          Rs. 440             SELL
US respiratory – we await further progress

Key respiratory opportunities in the US (…continued)
Active ingredient                                Active ingredient type         Brand        Device      Device type Sales ($mn) Patents                     Launch date*
fluticasone                                      ICS                            Flovent      HFA         MDI             450        Dec 2017 - Aug 2026 -
salmeterol + fluticasone                         LABA + ICS                     Advair       Diskus      DPI            2,500       Aug-16                   FY20
salmeterol + fluticasone                         LABA + ICS                     Advair       HFA         MDI             300        Dec 2017 - Aug 2026 -
budesonide + formoterol                          ICS + LABA                     Symbicort    HFA         MDI            1,500       Sep 2017 - Apr 2029      -
ipratropium                                      LAMA                           Atrovent     HFA         MDI             300        May 2020 - Jan 2030      -
levalbuterol                                     SABA                           Xopenex      HFA         MDI             120        Nov 2017 - Oct 2024      -
ipratropium + albuterol                          LAMA + SABA                    Combivent    Respimat    MDI             890        May 2016 - Dec 2029 -
mometasone + formoterol                          ICS + LABA                     Dulera       HFA         MDI             580        Aug 2017 - May 2020 -
Source: Company data, USFDA, Spark Capital Research; *earliest possible

                                                                          US generics (ex respiratory)

 At ~$300mn sales in FY16 (excluding the acquired InvaGen business consolidated from Mar 2016), Cipla’s scale in the US is significantly less
  compared to large-cap peers, who have built businesses of close to $1bn (and above) in the world’s largest generic market.

US sales lags peers

                                                                                                                                                     2,631
                                                                                                                                                2,327
                                                                                                                                           2,064
                                                                                                                                   1,566
                                     1,426                                                   1,376
                                1,244                                              1,1531,233                                 1,271
                          938                          826                                                              887
                                             615 666                  536 623                                 628 610
                                                               321                                      371                                                      410 313 339
    138 155 209

        ALKEM                   ARBP             CDH                 CIPLA                DRRD                GNP             LPC              SUNP                 TRP
                                                          US sales $mn       FY16         FY17E    FY18E

Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                            Page 6
Cipla                                                                                                                            CMP              Target         Rating
                                                                                                                                Rs. 476         Rs. 440           SELL
Course correction in the US

 Unlike peers, Cipla opted for a partnership model in the US, to avoid the risks                      Market shares in own-label products
  associated with patent litigations and front-end fixed costs, while focusing on the
  company’s strengths in R&D and manufacturing. However, in FY12/13, Cipla                             Active          Dosage
                                                                                                                              Facility
                                                                                                                                              Genericized
                                                                                                                                                          Launched
                                                                                                                                                                   Market
  announced a major strategic shift by establishing a US front-end. The company                        ingredient      form                      from              share
  set up a team under the leadership of Tim Crew (ex Teva) and started filing                          meloxicam       Tablet     Kurkumbh      Jul-06      Feb-15      28.1%
  ANDAs under its own label. First products under Cipla’s label in the US were                         alendronate     Tablet     Goa           Feb-08      Sep-15      21.5%
  launched in 3QFY15. In FY16, Cipla’s own front-end business accounted for                            rizatriptan     Tablet     Goa           Dec-12      Feb-15      17.9%
  ~$50mn sales.                                                                                        topiramate      Tablet     Kurkumbh      Mar-09      Feb-15      17.9%
 Cipla’s partnered products in the US accounted for ~$250mn sales in FY16. This                       amlodipine      Tablet     Goa           Jun-07      Jun-15      14.2%
  includes gNexium, for which Cipla’s partner (Teva) enjoyed 6-month exclusivity                       lamotrigine     Tablet     Goa           Jul-09      Apr-15       9.1%
  starting Feb 2015. We observe several complex and high-value products in Cipla’s                     nadolol         Tablet     Hauppauge     Oct-93      Mar-16       8.0%
  current partnered portfolio. In our view, Cipla was unable to meaningfully                           valacyclovir    Tablet     Goa           May-10      Feb-15       6.7%
  monetize its capabilities in high-value generic segments such as complex orals
                                                                                                       famciclovir     Tablet     Goa           Mar-11      Aug-15       4.2%
  (gNexium, gVancocin), injectables (gDacogen, gVidaza) and respiratory
                                                                                                       celecoxib       Capsule    Kurkumbh      Dec-14      Apr-16       1.2%
  (gPulmicort, gXopenex and Dymista) due to the inferior economics of its
  partnership-driven model in the US.                                                                  Source: Company data, Bloomberg, USFDA, Spark Capital Research

Partnered portfolio include several complex products…                              …including injectables, respiratory and ophthalmic drugs

Active ingredient                 Dosage form         Partner      Approval date   Active ingredient                Dosage form           Partner             Approval date
doxercalciferol                   Capsule             Roxane          Sep-11       albuterol sulfate                Inhalation solution   Actavis                Sep-07
isotretinoin                      Capsule             Dr Reddy's      Mar-13       levalbuterol HCl                 Inhalation solution   Dr Reddy's             Dec-13
vancomycin HCl                    Capsule             Akorn           Apr-12       budesonide                       Inhalation suspension Sandoz                 Sep-13
esomeprazole Mg                   DR capsule          Teva            Jan-15       argatroban                       Injection             Sandoz & Eagle          Jun-11
potassium chloride                ER capsule          Perrigo         Nov-15       azacitidine                      Injection             Mylan                   Apr-16
cetirizine + pseudoephedrine      ER tablet           Perrigo         Feb-08       decitabine                       Injection             Dr Reddy's              Jul-13
escitalopram oxalate              Tablet              Teva            Mar-12       epirubicin HCl                   Injection             Areva & Sagent          Oct-07
dutasteride                       Softgel capsule     Roxane          Nov-15       irinotecan HCl                   Injection             Areva                  Feb-08
zidovudine                        Syrup               Qualitest       Jun-08       pamidronate disodium             Injection             Areva                  Nov-08
amoxicillin + clavulanate         Oral suspension     Wockhardt       Nov-08       azelastine + fluticasone         Nasal suspension      Meda                   May-12
griseofulvin                      Oral suspension     Teva            Sep-07       travoprost                       Ophthalmic solution   Par                     Mar-13
Source: Company data, USFDA, Spark Capital Research                                Source: Company data, USFDA, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                        Page 7
Cipla                                                                                                                              CMP              Target             Rating
                                                                                                                                 Rs. 476            Rs. 440             SELL
InvaGen acquisition brings much needed scale to US operations

 The $550mn acquisition of InvaGen in FY16 brings much needed scale to Cipla’s front-end initiatives in the US. Invagen had sales of ~$225mn
  at the time of deal announcement. InvaGen has 40 approved ANDAs and 32 ANDAs pending approval including 5 FTFs.

InvaGen – Para IV pipeline

Active                                       Brand sales         Launch
                  Brand      Innovator                                    Comments
ingredient                                      ($mn)             date
sevelamer                                                                 Impax is FTF. Lupin, Torrent, Sandoz and Actavis are known filers. InvaGen sued in Apr 2012. FDA
                  Renvela    Genzyme              350            Jul-17
carbonate tab                                                             issued revised bioequivalence guidance in Sep 2015
sevelamer HCl                                                             Lupin is FTF. InvaGen sued in Mar 2012. FDA issued revised bioequivalence guidance in Dec 2014.
                  Renagel    Genzyme              200            Jul-17
tab                                                                       InvaGen to launch post Lupin’s exclusivity
                                                                          Teva, Mylan and Natco/Lupin are FTFs. InvaGen sued in Dec 2014. Apotex and Alkem are other
lanthanum                                                                 known filers. Mylan, Lupin and Alkem have won the litigation and can launch on approval. Expect
                  Fosrenol   Shire                120            Jun-17
carbonate                                                                 InvaGen to launch in June 2017 (expiry of 30-month stay). FDA issued revised bioequivalence
                                                                          guidance (draft) in June 2015 which could delay generics
                                                                          Teva and Mylan settled litigations to launch in Dec 2017. Actavis, Ajanta Pharma, Aurobindo, Dr
sildenafil citrate Viagra    Pfizer              1,300           Jun-18   Reddy’s, Apotex, Amneal Pharmaceutical, Macleods, Rubicon, Hetero and Torrent are other known
                                                                          players. Assuming launch after Teva's and Mylan's exclusivity
                                                                          Emcure and InvaGen are FTFs. Sunovion sued Emcure and InvaGen in Jan 2015 on patent ‘372
lurasidone HCl    Latuda     Sunovion             750            Jul-18
                                                                          (July 2018). Lupin, Amneal, MSN, Emcure and Sun have TAs. Teva is other known filer
                                                                          InvaGen sued in Nov 2015 on patents ‘934 (Apr 2030), ‘419 (Dec 2019), ‘910 (July 2018), ‘060 (Dec
                                                                          2019) and ‘124 (Jul 2021). Alembic, Actavis, Sigmapharm, Mylan, Micro Labs, Sandoz, HEC Pharma,
ticagrelor        Brilinta   AstraZeneca          240              -
                                                                          Apotex, Prinston and Amneal are known filers. As per AstraZeneca, litigation is at an early stage and
                                                                          no trial dates have been set
                                                                          Actavis sued Accord Healthcare, Alembic, Apotex, InvaGen and Teva on patents ‘020, ‘195, ‘804 and
                             Actavis
vilazodone HCl    Viibryd                         328              -      ‘921 in Mar 2015. All patents are expiring in June 2022. As per Actavis, trial is expected to start in Jan
                             (Forest Labs)
                                                                          2018
                                                                          Mylan, Intas, Accord, Aurobindo, HEC Pharma, Dr. Reddy's, Cadila, MSN, Prinston, Huahai, Zhejiang
                            Boehringer                                    Huahai and Sun are other known players. Boehringer sued all generic players in Aug 2015 on patents
linagliptin       Tradjenta                       815              -
                            Ingelheim                                     ‘648 (Aug 2023), ‘927 (May 2027), ‘955 (May 2025), ‘156 (Mar 2031), ‘695 (Jun 2030) and ‘541 (Aug
                                                                          2023)
                                                                          InvaGen sued in Jan 2016 on '456 (Feb 2021), '860 (Dec 2020) and '339 (Dec 2020) patents.
rivaroxaban       Xarelto    Bayer                830              -      Aurobindo, Breckenridge, Micro, Mylan, Prinston, Sigmapharm and Torrent were sued in Oct 2015.
                                                                          As per J&J, InvaGen’s case consolidated with other cases. Trial expected to start in Mar 2018
Source: Company data, USFDA, Bloomberg, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                             Page 8
Cipla                                                                                                                                CMP              Target            Rating
                                                                                                                                   Rs. 476           Rs. 440             SELL
ARVs to drive own-label US business in the near-term

 Cipla (ex InvaGen) currently has 78 ANDAs pending approval of which ~2/3rd are partnered and the remaining are under Cipla’s own label. The
  78 pending ANDAs include tentative approvals for several interesting ARV products with patent expiries over the next 2-3 years. As elaborated
  earlier, the key monitorable under Cipla’s own-label business will be updates from clinical trials and filings for inhaler products.

Interesting ARV opportunities in the near-term                                              InvaGen to boost US sales from FY17
                                                                Brand Sales     Launch
Active ingredients                   Brand      Innovator
                                                                   ($mn)         date
                                                ViiV
abacavir + lamivudine                Epzicom                        450         Nov-16                                                                                271
                                                Healthcare
                                                                                                                                                       235
lopinavir + ritonavir                Kaletra    Abbvie               160        Dec-16                                                 14
ritonavir                            Norvir     Abbvie               500        Jun-17                                                 50                              99
                                                                                                                                                       65
atazanavir                           Reyataz    BMS                  590        Dec-17
tenofovir                            Viread     Gilead               540        Jun-18                                 15
                                                                                                                                      257              235            253
efavirenz                            Sustiva    BMS                 1,041       Sep-21                 123            133
emtricitabine                        Emtriva    Gilead                25        Sep-21
efavirenz + emtricitabine +                                                                          FY14            FY15            FY16            FY17E           FY18E
                                     Atripla    Gilead              2,200       Sep-21
tenofovir
emtricitabine + tenofovir            Truvada    Gilead              2,100       Dec-21                       US sales $mn B2B        DTM     InvaGen

Source: Company data, USFDA, Spark Capital Research                                         Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

Final outcome of Indore facility inspection will be key monitorable

Facility                      Last inspection    Type of facility      Comments
Kurkumbh                          May-14        APIs, Formulations No observations in the last inspection
Indore                            Aug-15          Formulations         Form 483 with 9 observations issued post last inspection. Inhalers are manufactured at this facility
Virgonagar (Bangalore)            Jul-14              APIs             Form 483 issued post last inspection
Bangalore                         Mar-15              APIs             No observations in the last inspection
                                                                       Form 483 issued post last inspection. Received approval for nevirapine tablets post inspection (Oct 2015).
Goa                               Apr-15          Formulations
                                                                       Key marketed products include budesonide (Sandoz), Dymista (Meda), alendronate, rizatriptan
Patalganga                        Feb-15        APIs, Formulations No observations in the last inspection
Hauppauge (New York)              May-15          Formulations         Part of InvaGen. EIR received
Source: Company data, USFDA, FDAzilla, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                              Page 9
Cipla                                                                                                                                                                                          CMP            Target            Rating
                                                                                                                                                                                             Rs. 476         Rs. 440            SELL
Domestic formulations – leadership in respiratory and anti-infective segments

Cipla ranks 3rd in the domestic pharmaceutical market                                                                                                  Domestic formulations – % of total sales
    8.2%

                                                                                                                                                           73%
           6.3%
                  4.7%
                         3.8%
                                 3.4%
                                        3.3%
                                               3.3%
                                                      3.2%
                                                             3.2%
                                                                                                                                                                               38%

                                                                    2.9%
                                                                           2.7%
                                                                                  2.4%
                                                                                         2.4%
                                                                                                2.3%
                                                                                                       2.3%
                                                                                                              2.3%
                                                                                                                                                                      31%

                                                                                                                     2.1%
                                                                                                                            2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      28%                        27%

                                                                                                                                   1.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       26%

                                                                                                                                           1.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                             25%
                                                                                                                                                                                          14%

                                                                                                                                                          ALKEM       CDH     CIPLA      DRRD         GNP    LPC       SUNP      TRP

                                                                                                                                                                                Domestic formulations - % of sales

Source: IMS Health MAT May 2016, Spark Capital Research                                                                                                Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

IPM – breakup by therapeutic segments                                                                                       Cipla – breakup of domestic sales by therapeutic segment                        Ranked top-10 in 5 segments

                                    Others,                                                                                               Gynaecology, 2%      Others, 11%                                  Therapy                    Rank
                                     12%
                                                                           Anti-infectives, 15%                             Dermatology,                                                Anti-               Respiratory                   1
Gynaecology, 5%                                                                                                                 3%                                                   infectives,            Anti-infectives               1
                                                                                                                                     CNS, 3%                                            25%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Cardiac                       5
 Dermatology,                                                                        Cardiac, 12%                                          Pain , 4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Gastro-intestinal             8
     6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            CNS                           9
           CNS, 6%                                                                                                                                                                      Cardiac, 11%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dermatology                   13
                                                                                      Gastro-                                              Respiratory,                                                     Gynaecology                   18
             Pain , 7%                                                                                                                        28%                                       Gastro-
                                                                                     intestinal,
                                                                                                                                                                                     intestinal, 9%         Pain                          19
   Respiratory,                                                                         12%
      8%                            Anti-                                                                                                                                                                   Anti-diabetics                30
                                                                            Vitamins,                                                             Anti-diabetic, 2%           Vitamins, 3%
                                diabetic, 8%                                                                                                                                                                Vitamins                      32
                                                                               9%
Source: Industry data, Spark Capital Research                                                                               Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research                                    Source: Company data, Spark
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Page 10
Cipla                                                                                                                    CMP             Target             Rating
                                                                                                                        Rs. 476         Rs. 440             SELL
5 inhaler brands with >Rs. 1bn sales

Generic drugs account for 19% of Cipla’s domestic sales                        Domestic formulations – growth vs. IPM

                                                                                             20%                 20%
                  Generic (Gx),                                                                                               19%
                     19%                                                                                                                           18%
                                                                                                                        17%
                                                                                                                                  15%                15%
                                                                                                14%
                                                                                                                                             12%
                                                                                       11%            11%11%
                                                                                  9%                                                    9%                        9%
                                                                                                                                                             8%

                                                   Branded drugs                  Jun-14     Sep-14    Dec-14     Mar-15      Jun-15    Sep-15     Dec-15    Mar-16
                                                     (Rx), 81%
                                                                                               Cipla - domestic formulations growth          IPM - growth

Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research                                   Source: AIOCD, Spark Capital Research

Top-10 brands include 6 inhalers                                               Top-10 brands account for ~25% of sales

Brand            Molecule                                  Therapy
Foracort         formoterol + budesonide                   Respiratory                                                                   Top 10
                                                                                                                                          25%
Budecort         budesonide                                Respiratory
                                                                                                   Others
Asthalin         salbutamol                                Respiratory                              40%
Seroflo          salmeterol + fluticasone                  Respiratory
Duolin           levosalbutamol + ipratropium              Respiratory
                                                                                                                                              Top 11-20
Aerocort         levosalbutamol + beclomethasone           Respiratory
                                                                                                                                                13%
Azee             azithromycin                              Anti-Infectives
Montair LC       montelukast + levocetirizine              Respiratory                                                                      Top 21-30
                                                                                                                                              10%
Novamox          amoxicillin                               Anti-Infectives                                  Top 41-50               Top 31-40
Emeset           ondansetron                               Gastro Intestinal                                   5%                      7%

Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research                                   Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                               Page 11
Cipla                                                                                                               CMP             Target        Rating
                                                                                                                   Rs. 476          Rs. 440        SELL
Minimal impact from FDC ban

Respiratory segment impacted the most by FDC ban                           Impact of FDC ban will be minimal for Cipla

               Gynaec, 3%      Others, 5%         Market size of banned      12.7%
   Gastro-intestinal, 4%                          FDC drugs is ~Rs. 36bn
                                                                                     9.4%
                Pain, 5%
                                                                                            6.0%
          Derma, 10%                                Respiratory, 43%
                                                                                                   3.1% 2.5%
                                                                                                             1.9% 1.7%
                                                                                                                             1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

          Anti-infectives,
                15%
                                             Anti-diabetic, 15%
                                                                                                    % of sales at risk due to FDC ban

Source: IMS Health, Spark Capital Research                                 Source: AIOCD, Spark Capital Research

                                                                           Domestic formulations – annual trend
 Cipla has dominant positions in respiratory and anti-infective                                                                                  66.1
  segments. The company has identified gastroenterology, urology,
                                                                                                                                     57.9
  dermatology and paediatrics as focus areas and is currently in the                                                 51.8
  process of launching new products in the these therapies. Cipla is                                47.5
  also strengthening its product basket by in-licensing drugs (6 in               39.7
  FY16)
 With its pan-India distribution network, strong doctor relationships
  (7,000+ MRs) and tier III/IV/rural reach, we expect Cipla to outpace
  industry growth, going forward
 Domestic growth in FY16 (9% yoy) was impacted by product
  rationalization in the generic segment and a change in distribution
                                                                                 FY14               FY15            FY16            FY17E        FY18E
  policy. Branded segment delivered a healthy growth of 12% yoy
                                                                                                     Domestic formulations sales (Rs. bn)

                                                                           Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                         Page 12
Cipla                                                                                                                     CMP           Target          Rating
                                                                                                                         Rs. 476        Rs. 440          SELL
South African pharma market – overview

 South African pharma market to reach ZAR 43.5bn by 2019                            State hospitals account for 16% of total pharma market

                                                                            43.5
                                                                                                     State hospitals
                                                                                                          16%
       32.5

                                                                                                                                            Private market
                                                                                                                                                 84%

       2014            2015        2016          2017       2018            2019
              Retail sector    Hospital sector     Other outlets (ZAR bn)
Source: UTI Pharma, Spark Capital Research                                         Source: UTI Pharma, Spark Capital Research

OTC drugs accounts for ~30% of the private pharma market                           Generics account for 38% and 65% (by value and volume) of the Rx market

                                                                                                        4%                                  2%
                         OTC
                         31%
                                                                                                       38%
                                                                                                                                           65%

                                                                                                       58%
                                                                                                                                           33%
                                                          Rx
                                                         69%
                                                                                                      Value                                Volume
                                                                                                              Branded      Generics   Others

Source: UTI Pharma, Spark Capital Research                                         Source: UTI Pharma, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                             Page 13
Cipla                                                                                                                           CMP          Target     Rating
                                                                                                                              Rs. 476        Rs. 440    SELL
Cipla Medpro – steady performance to continue

 5% share in South African private pharma market
                                                                   South Africa is the 3rd largest market (~12% of sales in FY16) for Cipla after India and US.
                                    Aspen,                          Cipla established a front-end presence in South Africa by acquiring its marketing
                                     15%                            partner Cipla Medpro for $512mn in Jun 2013. The acquisition also strengthened the
   Other, 39%
                                                                    company’s presence in other African markets such as Botswana and Namibia. Cipla
                                             Adcock
                                             Ingram,                Medpro operates in both private (DTM, ~65% of sales) and institutional (B2B, ~35% of
                                               9%                   sales) segments.
                                                                   Cipla Medpro is the 6th largest player in the South African private pharmaceutical market
                                             Sanofi,                with a share of ~5%. The company has strong presence in respiratory, HIV, CVS and
                                              7%                    OTC segments. Distribution tie-ups with Teva for 65 products in oncology, CNS,
                                         Pfizer, 6%                 Women’s Health and ophthalmic segments and with Serum Institute of India for
   Roche, 3%
                                                                    vaccines has further strengthened Cipla’s portfolio in South Africa. Department of
                                           Novartis,                Health recently approved a price hike of 4.8% (effective from March 2016), which should
    Bayer, 3%                                5%
                                  Cipla, 5%                         support near-term growth
      Merck & Co, 4% J&J, 4%

Source: Aspen, Spark Capital Research

 Institutional segment accounted for ~35% of Cipla Medpro’s sales in                    Cipla Medpro – annual sales trend
  FY16 (27% in FY15). Near-term growth is likely to be muted as the
  company focuses on profitability. Recent tender wins include a few                                                                                   3,981
  in non-ARV segments (respiratory, CVS, mental health and women’s                                                                            3,628
  health)                                                                                                                        3,272
                                                                                                2,565           2,613
Recent tender wins for Cipla
Date   Therapy               Awarded by          Amount           Duration
Feb-15 ARV                   Global Fund         $189mn           Jan 2015 - Jan 2018
Dec-14 ARV                   National ARV tender ZAR2bn           Apr 2015 - Apr 2018
       Mental health,
       cardiovascular        National oral solid
Aug-14                                                 ZAR280mn   Aug 2014 - Aug 2016
       and women's           tender
                                                                                                FY14            FY15             FY16        FY17E     FY18E
       health
                             National respiratory                                                                     Cipla Medpro sales (ZAR mn)
Jun-14 Respiratory                                     ZAR345mn   July 2014 - Apr 2017
                             tender
Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research                                             Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                           Page 14
Cipla                                                                                                                          CMP            Target             Rating
                                                                                                                             Rs. 476          Rs. 440            SELL
Largest exposure to EMs among Indian pharma peers

                                                                                       Cipla’s EM business operates under 3 verticals
Cipla has one of the largest exposures to emerging markets among
Indian pharma players. The company’s EM business operates under 3
verticals which contribute roughly equally to topline:
1) Front-end markets: Cipla has set up front-ends in Iran, Sri Lanka,
                                                                                                     Cipla Global                                 Front-end
   Yemen, Uganda and Morocco and has strong positions in these                                      Access, ~35%                                markets, ~35%
   markets. This vertical recorded strong growth of >20% in FY16
2) Partnership markets: Cipla covers ~80-90 smaller markets through
   partnerships. Recently, the company announced plans to
   rationalize geographical coverage under this model. FY16 growth
   for the vertical was ~8%
3) Cipla Global Access: Tender-based institutional business that
   concentrates on four key therapy areas - HIV/AIDS, malaria,
   multidrug-resistant TB and reproductive health. FY16 growth was                                                            Partnership
   12%                                                                                                                       markets, ~30%
                                                                                       Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

Strengthening presence in EMs through M&As                                                                        RoW sales – annual trend
Date   Market Consideration Comments
Nov-13 Uganda $15mn         Increased stake in Quality Chemical Industries from 36.5% to 51%                                                                      612
                                                                                                                                                        554
Dec-13 Croatia NA           Acquired Celeris, Cipla's distributor in Croatia                                                                 523
       Sri                                                                                                                        459
Jun-14         $14mn        Acquired 60% stake in existing Sri Lankan distributor                                      421
       Lanka
                            Acquired pharma manufacturing and distribution business of a UAE-based
Jun-14 Yemen $21mn
                            company
                            JV with Iranian distributor for setting up manufacturing facility. Cipla owns 75%
Oct-14 Iran    Rs. 2.2bn
                            in the JV
                            Formed 60:40 JV with Societe Marocaine De Cooperations Pharmaceutique.
Feb-15 Morocco >$15mn
                            JV to set up manufacturing facility in Morocco
                            Formed 40:60 JV with Biopharm SPA for setting manufacturing facility in
Feb-15 Algeria >$6mn                                                                                                  FY14       FY15        FY16     FY17E      FY18E
                            Algeria
Apr-15 Brazil  Rs. 30mn     Acquired Brazil-based pharma distributor Duomed Produtos Farmaceuticos
                                                                                                                                        RoW sales ($mn)
May-15 Uganda $8mn          Increased stake in Quality Chemical Industries from 51% to 62%
Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research                                                                      Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                    Page 15
Cipla                                                                                                                         CMP              Target          Rating
                                                                                                                            Rs. 476        Rs. 440                 SELL
Escalating costs, deteriorating return ratios

Sharp increase in R&D spending                                                      Breakup of top-50 R&D projects by dosage form

 16.0                                                                        9.0%
                                                                   8.0%                                          Othes, 9
 14.0                                                     7.5%               8.0%
 12.0
                                                6.5%                         7.0%                                                                Solid Orals, 20
 10.0
                                        5.9%
  8.0                                                                        6.0%
  6.0                          4.8%                                                             Inhalations, 8
          4.5%                                                               5.0%
  4.0               4.1%
                                                                             4.0%
  2.0
           3.1       3.3       4.7       6.4     8.7      11.8     14.3
  0.0                                                                        3.0%
          FY12      FY13   FY14     FY15     FY16  FY17E FY18E                                           Injectables, 13
                       R&D expenses (Rs. bn)      % of sales

Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research                                        Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

Margins under pressure primarily due to rising employee costs                       Declining return ratios

                                                                                                        18.1%17.5%
                                                                                       16.0%15.8%
                                                                                                                            14.5%14.6%
        39.0%          35.7%           38.4%           36.9%         37.4%                                                                                13.0%
                                                                                                                                         11.2%11.8%                11.5%

        11.0%          12.5%           15.3%           17.4%         17.9%
        26.4%          25.3%
                                       25.2%           26.6%         26.4%

        23.6%          26.5%           21.1%           19.1%         18.3%
                                                                                           FY12            FY13               FY14             FY15           FY16
        FY12            FY13            FY14           FY15           FY16
                                                                                                                      RoE (%)       RoCE (%)
        EBITDA margin       Other expenses     Employee cost     Raw material

Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research                                        Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                     Page 16
Cipla                                                                                                                       CMP              Target          Rating
                                                                                                                          Rs. 476           Rs. 440           SELL
Peer comparison

 Summary of financials

                              Revenues                             EBITDA                              Adj. PAT                                Adj. EPS
Company
                   FY15      FY16 FY17E        FY18E     FY15     FY16 FY17E       FY18E     FY15     FY16 FY17E       FY18E      FY15         FY16    FY17E      FY18E
ALKEM             37,887   49,874    56,129    67,162    4,871    8,538    9,744   12,783    4,626    7,604    7,942    9,718       38.7        63.6      66.4       81.3
ARBP            121,205 138,961 164,504 183,703         25,636   32,056   40,134   46,478   16,354   20,480   25,320   29,319       28.0        35.0      43.3       50.1
BIOS              30,898   34,854    39,952    45,587    6,958    8,121    9,361   11,593    4,081    4,373    4,978    5,800       20.4        21.9      24.9       29.0
CDH               86,513   98,376 107,994 126,160       17,557   23,829   24,520   29,192   11,589   15,275   16,502   20,115       11.3        14.9      16.1       19.6
CIPLA           113,454 136,783 160,514 182,360         21,617   25,011   28,012   33,830   11,808   15,059   15,928   19,690       14.7        18.7      19.8       24.4
DIVI              31,150   37,764    42,309    48,573   11,653   14,138   15,897   18,354    8,516   11,119   11,912   13,421       32.1        41.9      44.9       50.6
DRRD            148,189 154,708 166,520 188,522         33,469   39,089   41,419   47,359   22,179   24,664   23,784   29,123     129.8        144.2     140.9      172.5
GNP               66,448   76,496    95,550 100,151     12,246   15,268   23,683   23,247    6,624    7,929   14,523   14,091       24.4        28.1      51.5       50.0
LPC             127,700 142,085 175,991 206,727         36,196   37,333   47,076   54,320   24,032   22,707   28,548   33,875       53.2        50.3      63.2       75.0
SUNP            274,334 283,152 313,852 359,900         79,635   84,727 103,229 119,528     47,771   54,011   66,503   79,123       19.9        22.4      27.6       32.9
TRP               46,535   66,760    66,137    73,659   10,202   27,200   18,868   20,018    7,509   18,620   12,370   13,462       44.4       110.0      73.1       79.6
                                P/E                               EV/EBITDA                             ROCE                      CMP       MCap
Company                                                                                                                                                TP (Rs.)   Rating
                   FY15      FY16 FY17E        FY18E     FY15     FY16 FY17E       FY18E     FY15     FY16 FY17E       FY18E      (Rs.)    (Rs. mn)
ALKEM               35.5      21.6      20.7     16.9     32.9     18.8     16.4     12.5   13.4%    17.5%    18.7%    19.8%      1,375      164,432     1,463     BUY
ARBP                25.9      20.7      16.8     14.5     18.1     14.5     11.6     10.0   19.9%    19.9%    20.3%    20.2%        726      424,628       902     BUY
BIOS                35.5      33.2      29.1     25.0     21.5     18.4     16.0     12.9   10.1%     7.1%     9.0%    10.3%        725      144,950       746     BUY
CDH                 27.8      21.1      19.5     16.0     19.2     14.2     13.8     11.6   18.9%    21.4%    21.4%    23.6%        314      321,609       354    ADD
CIPLA               32.5      25.5      24.1     19.5     19.5     16.9     15.1     12.5   11.8%    11.5%    10.6%    11.8%        476      382,298       440    SELL
DIVI                34.4      26.3      24.6     21.8     24.4     20.1     17.9     15.5   26.2%    28.4%    25.4%    24.5%      1,103      292,745     1,011    SELL
DRRD                24.4      22.0      22.5     18.4     16.0     13.7     13.6     11.3   15.9%    16.3%    14.6%    16.9%      3,172      540,877     3,104    ADD
GNP                 31.8      27.6      15.1     15.5     20.4     16.4     10.6     10.8   13.1%    12.9%    18.7%    16.5%        776      218,814       799    SELL
LPC                 27.9      29.6      23.5     19.8     20.3     19.6     15.6     13.5   28.7%    16.9%    16.2%    18.0%      1,486      669,812     1,500    SELL
SUNP                37.9      33.5      27.2     22.9     22.5     21.1     17.3     15.0   20.8%    17.2%    18.1%    18.7%        753    1,811,278       792    ADD
TRP                 30.3      12.2      18.4     16.9     23.0      8.6     12.4     11.7   22.4%    38.1%    25.3%    25.6%      1,345      227,527     1,591     BUY
Source: Company data, Spark Capital Research

                                                                                                                                                                  Page 17
Cipla                                                                                                                                      CMP            Target             Rating
                                                                                                                                      Rs. 476             Rs. 440            SELL
Financial Summary

    Abridged Financial Statements (Consolidated)                                                    Key metrics

    Rs. mn                                    FY14       FY15       FY16      FY17E      FY18E                                    FY14      FY15        FY16    FY17E      FY18E
    Profit & Loss                                                                                   Growth ratios
    Revenue                                  101,004    113,454    136,783    160,514    182,360    Revenue                        22.0%     12.3%      20.6%    17.3%      13.6%
    EBITDA                                    21,331     21,617     25,011     28,012     33,830    EBITDA                         -2.9%         1.3%   15.7%    12.0%      20.8%
    Depreciation                              (3,726)    (5,047)    (5,417)    (6,532)    (7,488)   Adjusted PAT                   -7.8%     -15.0%     27.5%       5.8%    23.6%
    EBIT                                      17,604     16,570     19,594     21,480     26,342    Margin ratios
    Other Income                               2,654      1,656      2,089      2,190      2,050    EBITDA                         21.1%     19.1%      18.3%    17.5%      18.6%
    Interest expense                          (1,457)    (1,683)    (1,613)    (2,488)    (2,451)   Adjusted PAT                   13.4%     10.3%      10.8%       9.8%    10.7%
    Exceptional items                            -          -          -          -          -      Performance ratios
    PBT                                       18,800     16,543     20,070     21,183     25,941    RoE                            14.5%     11.2%      13.0%    12.4%      13.6%
    PAT (after minority interest)             13,884     11,808     15,059     15,928     19,690    RoCE                           14.6%     11.8%      11.5%    10.6%      11.8%
    Adjusted PAT (after minority interest)    13,884     11,808     15,059     15,928     19,690    RoA                            11.9%         8.9%    9.0%       7.9%     9.2%
    Balance Sheet                                                                                   Fixed asset turnover (x)         1.4          1.2     1.1        1.1      1.1
    Net Worth                                100,999    109,820    121,271    135,858    154,158    Total asset turnover (x)         0.9          0.9     0.8        0.8      0.9
    Deferred Tax                               3,090      2,846      3,664      3,664      3,664    Financial stability ratios
    Total debt                                12,479     17,033     51,914     50,969     43,183    Net Debt to Equity (x)           0.1          0.1     0.3        0.3      0.2
    Other liabilities and provisions           7,640     11,233     17,174     17,936     18,736    Net debt to EBITDA (x)           0.4          0.4     1.5        1.3      0.8
    Total Networth and liabilities           124,208    140,932    194,022    208,427    219,741    Current ratio (x)                3.2          2.7     2.5        2.6      2.7
    Gross Fixed assets                        91,181    101,425    143,522    154,272    165,022    Inventory and debtor days       170          194      168       168      168
    Net fixed assets                          69,383     74,105    110,786    115,004    118,266    Working capital days            133          141      130       130      130
    Investments                                3,971      3,900      1,764      1,764      1,764    Interest cover (x)              12.1          9.8    12.1        8.6     10.7
    Cash & ST investments                      4,866      8,140     14,520     15,483     14,920    Valuation metrics
    Loans & advances and other assets         10,442     12,710     19,374     20,343     21,360    Fully Diluted Shares (mn)      804.1     805.6      806.1    806.2      806.2
    Net working capital                       35,546     42,076     47,578     55,833     63,432    Market cap (Rs.mn)           382,298
    Total assets                             124,208    140,932    194,022    208,427    219,741    Adjusted EPS (Rs.)              17.3         14.7    18.7       19.8     24.4
    Cash Flows                                                                                      P/E (x)                         27.6         32.5    25.5       24.1     19.5
    Cash flows from Operations                15,627     11,734     18,899     17,081     22,357    EV (Rs.mn)                   422,388
    Capex                                     (8,274)    (9,603)   (45,991)   (10,750)   (10,750)   EV/ EBITDA (x)                  19.8         19.5    16.9       15.1     12.5
    Cash flows from Investing                (12,499)    (9,412)   (47,163)   (10,750)   (10,750)   BV/ share (Rs.)                125.0     134.1      147.1    164.4      186.5
    Cash flows from Financing                 (2,656)    (1,648)    31,335     (5,367)   (12,171)   Price to BV (x)                  3.8          3.5     3.2        2.9      2.6

                                                                                                                                                                                    Page 18
Cipla                                                                                                                                    CMP               Target            Rating
                                                                                                                                       Rs. 476            Rs. 440             SELL
Disclaimer

                                                                                                                        Stock expected to provide returns of 15% over a 1-year horizon      REDUCE
                                                                                                                        horizon
      Rating
  Interpretation               Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% – 10% over a 1-year horizon
                               horizon

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Cipla                                                                                                                              CMP               Target            Rating
                                                                                                                                  Rs. 476           Rs. 440            SELL
Disclaimer (Cont’d)

Spark Capital and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency,
Spark Capital has incorporated a disclosure of interest statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of views expressed in this report:

 Disclosure of interest statement                                                                                                                                    Yes/No

 Analyst financial interest in the company                                                                                                                             No
 Group/directors ownership of the subject company covered                                                                                                              No
 Investment banking relationship with the company covered                                                                                                              No
 Spark Capital’s ownership/any other financial interest in the company covered                                                                                         No
 Associates of Spark Capital’s ownership more than 1% in the company covered                                                                                           No
 Any other material conflict of interest at the time of publishing the research report                                                                                 No

 Receipt of compensation by Spark Capital or its Associate Companies from the subject company covered for in the last twelve months:
  Managing/co-managing public offering of securities
                                                                                                                                                                       No
  Investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services
  products or services other than those above
  in connection with research report

 Whether Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company covered                                                                No
 Whether the Research Analyst or Research Entity has been engaged in market making activity of the Subject Company;                                                    No

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