COVID-19 CONSUMER SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT #4 - APRIL 6, 2020: FIGHTING IN THE DARK
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COVID-19 CONSUMER
SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT #4
APRIL 6, 2020: FIGHTING IN THE DARK
By Lara Koslow, Jean Lee, Aparna Bharadwaj, Kanika Sanghi, and Nimisha Jain
F rom France to China to India to the
US, we are a global community at
home. Hunkered down in our rooms, we
lockdown there seems to be inspiring some
confidence that light at the end of the tun-
nel may now be in sight. In our most re-
are collectively fighting a virus that we are cent survey, 8% fewer Italians say they be-
still learning about—and as consumers, we lieve that the worst impacts lie ahead than
are changing our day-to-day behaviors in did two weeks ago. Sentiment in China is
the face of government orders and adviso- the most optimistic, with only 40% of con-
ries and continued increases in confirmed sumers now believing that the worst is still
COVID-19 cases. ahead, compared with 75% or more of con-
sumers in other countries. (See Exhibit 2.)
Shadow Boxing While concerns over becoming infected
In recent weeks, as China’s reported cases with COVID-19 as a result of engaging in
have flatlined, infections in other countries travel or in certain everyday activities con-
surveyed have steadily climbed, at an aver- tinue to increase in the Western world,
age daily growth rate of approximately 18% they are starting to decline in China. (See
since our last survey period.1 During the Exhibit 3.)
period, from March 17 to April 3, cases in
Italy increased at the lowest rate (8%) In India, negative consumer sentiment is
while cases in the US rose at the highest disproportionate to the level of COVID-19
rate (28%).2 (See Exhibit 1.) infections. Despite the disease’s relatively
late onset in the subcontinent and the as-
Consumer sentiment has grown more pes- yet relatively low number of cases there,
simistic in the US, France, and UK as the Indian consumers are as concerned as
numbers of confirmed cases in those coun- their US and European counterparts. In
tries have increased. Although the number India, 87% of consumers said they are
of cases in Italy has continued to rise, the practicing social distancing, and 84% saidGLOBAL – WEEK 4 – MARCH 27–30, 2020
Exhibit 1 | The Numbers of COVID-19 Cases Continue to Increase Rapidly in the US and in Europe
Wave 2: India survey Wave 3:
200 US/Europe/ in field US/Europe/
China survey China survey US
Hubei (except Wuhan)
in field in field
Confirmed coronavirus cases
lifts travel ban; Wuhan
150 set to lift its ban April 8
National lockdown in
(thousands)
France; EU closes borders
100
Italy
Germany
50 China
Italy imposes France
national lockdown UK
Canada
0 India
31 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1 3
Mar April
First UK death US-Europe travel US-Canada border France announces lockdown
ban announced is closed; first stay- extension through April 15
at-home orders Record 3.3 million file
No new confirmed cases Germany begins to Italy’s death toll for unemployment in US
outside Hubei limit public activities surpasses China’s “Complete” lockdown in India
Amazon warns that household State of emergency Police-enforced
items are out of stock is declared in Canadian lockdown in UK Positive milestones
provinces
Sources: World Health Organization Situation Reports; press release from China State Council, National Health Commission of the PRC,
Chinese Provincial Government; media reports; BCG analysis.
GLOBAL – WEEK 4 – MARCH 27–30, 2020
Exhibit 2 | Pessimism Grows as Infections Spread, but Italy Shows Signs That It May Be Turning the
Corner
More optimistic More pessimistic Agreement with each statement, March 27–30 (%)
I believe the worst I have changed my daily I believe the world is
impacts are ahead lifestyle due to the virus in serious danger
Agreement with each statement, March 27–30 (%)
Change since March 13–16 (percentage points)
40 89 91 90 100
86 87 88 86 86
85 84
81 79
77 75
30
20 36 50
40
China is significantly more
confident that the worst has past; 25 25
10 Italy is beginning to follow suit 22 20
12
6 6 5 1 6
0 2 2 0
-8 -6
-10
US France UK Italy China US France UK Italy China US France UK Italy China
Sources: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 13–16, 2020 (N = 1,831 China; 2,521 France; 2,206 Italy; 2,787 UK; 2,345 US), and
March 27–30, 2020 (N = 2,916 China; 2,985 France; 2,150 Italy; 2,984 UK; 2,944 US) unweighted; representative within ±3% of census/national
demographics.
Note: Question text: “How much do you agree with each of the following statements about the coronavirus?”
Boston Consulting Group | COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Snapshot #4 2GLOBAL – WEEK 4 – MARCH 27–30, 2020
Exhibit 3 | As Concerns Over the Virus Continue to Amplify in France and the Rest of the Western World,
China Demonstrates Sentiment Recovery
China France
Change in consumer concern about catching a virus from each activity,
from March – to March –, (percentage points)
- - - - - -
- -
- -
-
Traveling Taking a Taking a Visiting Visiting Staying at Taking a Going Going Taking Cooking at Shopping
internationally cruise domestic a theme a casino a hotel bus, subway, to a to a local an Uber/ a friend’s online
flight park or train restaurant store Lyft house
TRAVEL AND TOURISM EVERYDAY ACTIVITIES
Sources: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 13–16, 2020, and March 27–30, 2020 (N = 1,831 and N = 2,916, respectively, for
China, and N = 2,521 and N = 2,985, respectively, for France), unweighted; representative within ±3% of census/national demographics.
Note: Question text: “Would you be concerned about doing any of the following in the near future? Select all that apply.” and “You mentioned
you would be concerned about X. What part of the experience concerns you? Select all that apply.” Bar chart numbers have been rounded to
the nearest whole digit, but bar lengths reflect the actual proportionate size of each percentage change.
they fear an economic recession. These In fact, fewer consumers in India and China
high levels of concern likely reflect the than elsewhere plan to maintain their cur-
swift, full lockdown of the country that the rent levels of spending—and in areas where
Indian government imposed on March they intend to increase spending, the mag-
25—in the midst of our survey period— nitude of the expected change is larger
underscoring the gravity of the situation. than among consumers in developed econ-
(See Exhibit 4.) omies. (See Exhibit 7.)
Looking more closely at India, we see
Implications for Spending meaningful differences in spending that re-
Despite the sometimes sharp differences flect the country’s large income disparities
in global sentiment, the virus continues to and diverse demographics—features that
affect consumers’ spending behavior in are common in emerging markets. Specifi-
similar ways across the world, as we have cally, lower-income and younger consumers
documented in previous Snapshots. (See show a higher propensity to plan to reduce
Exhibit 5.) their spending, while older and higher-
income groups exhibit more resilience and
Consumers in most countries continue to are more likely to expect to maintain or in-
plan to decrease their spending in more crease their spending. (See Exhibit 8.)
product and experience categories than
they intend to increase their spending in— Much as we saw in China during the SARS
except in China, where consumer optimism epidemic of 2002 to 2003, the pandemic
continues to recover from its earlier nadir, appears to be driving a step change in on-
and in India, where consumers anticipate line shopping across categories in emerging
a more balanced split of spending de markets such as India, even in traditionally
creases and increases across categories. offline categories. (See Exhibit 9.) We are
(See Exhibit 6.) also observing accelerated online pene
Boston Consulting Group | COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Snapshot #4 3INDIA – WEEK 4 – MARCH 23–26, 2020
Exhibit 4 | COVID-19 Generates Significant Concern Among Indian Consumers Despite the Currently
Limited Number of Cases There
562 Economic crisis
3,374
Concern
Confirmed cases Elderly
Avoid travel Outbreak Wash hands
Recession China Pandemic
as of March 24 1
Confirmed cases
Coronavirus Stay home
as of April 41
Global
Death Cautious Self-quarantine Infect Sick
Strong early government action: Fear Spread
Away from crowds
• Janta curfew across the nation
• Complete lockdown for 21 days
2
Dangerous Contagious
News
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 23–26 2020 (N = 2,106 India); representative of the top 35% of the metro tier 2
(cities with populations greater than 0.5 million) population in India.
Note: Question text: “You mentioned that you are aware of a global virus outbreak. What comes to mind when you think about the virus?
Please list 3–5 words or phrases.”
1March 24 was the midpoint of the India survey period; April 4 is the most recent date for which COVID-19 infection data is available (source:
World Health Organization).
2The Janta curfew, which started on March 22, permits people to be out only for essential activities and only from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. each day.
Source: Economic Times, March 21, 2020.
GLOBAL – WEEK 4 – MARCH 27–30, 2020
Exhibit 5 | Category Winners and Losers in Planned Spending Remain Generally Consistent Across Eu-
rope and North America
UK Germany US Canada Italy France UK Germany US Canada Italy France
In-home entertainment Travel
Fresh and organic foods Out-of-home-entertainment
Packaged food and beverages Restaurants
Preventive health care Gambling
Household care products Luxury/fashion
Savings Public transportation
Utilities Home décor
Restaurant pickup/delivery Women’s clothing
Out-of-home entertainment Outerwear
Medical procedures Athletic equipment and clothing
Vitamins/supplements Cars/automobiles
Education Home electronics and appliances
Shoes/footwear
Toys and games
Men’s clothing
Winners Losers
Tobacco/smoking
More than % of respondents More than % of respondents Mobile electronics
plan to spend more plan to spend less Restaurant pickup/delivery
Cosmetics/perfume
Alcohol
Savings
Medical procedures
Education
Hair and body care
Rent/mortgage
In-home entertainment
Utilities
Insurance
Vitamins/supplements
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 27–30, 2020 (N = 2,928 Canada; 2,985 France; 3,085 Germany; 2,150 Italy; 2,984
UK; 2,944 US), unweighted; representative within ±3% of census demographics.
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Categories listed here
exclude baby/child food, childcare, and children’s clothing.
Boston Consulting Group | COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Snapshot #4 4GLOBAL – WEEK 4 – MARCH 27–30, 2020
Exhibit 6 | Across Categories, Consumers in China and India Plan to Increase Their Spending More Than
Western Consumers Do
Planned changes in spending across categories
over the next six months
China 0% Only small changes planned Plan to increase spending (net) China and India are the only countries in
India which some categories show net increases
in planned spending
Canada
France
Germany
20%
Plan to spend less
Italy
UK
US Net decreases in India and China
are smaller than those in Europe and
40%
North America
Plan to decrease Consumer spending
spending (net) expectations mixed
60%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Plan to spend more
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 27–30, 2020 (N = 2,928 Canada; 2,916 China; 2,985 France; 3,085 Germany;
2,150 Italy; 2,984 UK; 2,944 US) unweighted; representative within ±3% of census demographics; and March 23–26 2020 (N = 2,106 India);
representative of the top 35% of the metro tier 2 (cities with populations greater than 0.5 million) population in India.
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Plotted data excludes
categories with N < ~100.
GLOBAL – WEEK 4 – MARCH 27–30, 2020
Exhibit 7 | Consumers in China and India Are More Likely to Change Their Spending Behavior, Increasing
or Decreasing Spending More Than Others
Planning to spend more (average %) Planning to spend the same (average %) Planning to spend the less (average %)
Average increase or decrease Average increase or decrease
across top winners (%) across top losers (%)
13 9 8 9 12 8
26 23 22 23 22 21 30 27
46
55 35 39 40
44 52
21 52
34
52 58 59 60 60 65
25 38
49 52 52 52 47
39 39
36
20 16 22 20 19 17 18 14
India China Italy France Canada US UK Germany India China Italy Canada UK US France Germany
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey March 27–30, 2020 (N = 2,928 Canada; 2,916 China; 2,985 France; 3,085 Germany;
2,150 Italy; 2,984 UK; 2,944 US), unweighted; representative within ±3% of census demographics; and March 23–26 2020 (N = 2,106 India);
representative of the top 35% of the metro tier 2 (cities with populations greater than 0.5 million) population in India.
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Charts exclude results for
childcare, children’s clothing, and baby/child food.
Boston Consulting Group | COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Snapshot #4 5INDIA – WEEK 4 – MARCH 23–26, 2020
Exhibit 8 | Significant Differences Emerge Across Product Categories and Consumer Cohorts in India
Similar number of categories likely Significant differences in sentiment across consumer cohorts
to win and lose Plan to decrease spending in the next six months across categories (%)
TOP WINNERS TOP LOSERS Plan to increase spending in the next six months across categories (%)
• Education • Vacation/leisure travel
• Fresh foods • Luxury products Socioeconomic
Age (years) classification
• Preventive health care • Home construction
• Mobile services renovation
• Savings • Public transport - - - SEC A SEC B
• Subscription for paid • Nonmobile consumer
videos (over the top) electronics and appliances
• Home Wi-Fi connection • Business travel
• Vitamins/supplements • Apparel/footwear
• Medical procedures • Spas/theme parks
• Personal care • Restaurants
• Insurance • Cosmetics
• First aid • Home furnishings and décor
• Groceries and staples • Movies at cinema hall
• Household care products • Scooters/bikes
• Toys and games • Cars
• Utilities • Tobacco and smoking
• Direct-to-home services supplies
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 23–26 2020 (N = 2,106 India); representative of the top 35% of the metro tier 2
(cities with populations greater than 0.5 million) population in India.
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Average increase and
decrease in spending were calculated across all consumer sentiment categories covered; socioeconomic classification was calculated using
the education and occupation of the chief wage earner in the household (the member who contributes the greatest amount toward meeting
household expenses). SEC A = the top 13% of households in metro tier 2 cities in India; SEC B = the next 22% of households in metro tier 2
cities in India after SEC A.
INDIA – WEEK 4 – MARCH 23–26, 2020
Exhibit 9 | Many Indian Consumers Plan to Shift Toward Online Spending, Even in Traditionally Offline
Categories
More than usual Same Less than usual
55 37 8 Mobile phones
High online propensity
53 38 9 Apparel/fashion
30 64 6 Nonmoble consumer
Consumers who expect their online
electronics and appliances
47 39 15 Nonprescription medications
spending to change (%)
Moderate to low
54 35 11 Vitamins/supplements
online propensity
43 45 12 First aid
44 42 14 Cosmetics, makeup, perfume
55 34 11 Personal care products
48 38 14 Packaged food and beverages
Low online propensity
44 45 11 Household care products
46 39 15 Fresh foods
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 23–26 2020 (N = 2,106 India); representative of the top 35% of the metro tier 2
(cities with populations greater than 0.5 million) population in India.
Note: Question text: “In the next one month, how do you expect your online spend for the following types of products to change?”
Boston Consulting Group | COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Snapshot #4 6US – WEEK 4 – MARCH 27–30, 2020
Exhibit 10 | US Consumers Are Finding Positive Ways to Spend Their Extra Time at Home—and Most
Plan to Resume Normal Levels of Spending Post-COVID-19
How consumers are using their Spending expectations if the virus were under
extra time at home control in one, three, or six months (%)
Regardless of the current situation’s duration, about two-thirds
62% 42%
of consumers expect their spending to return to at least normal
month
connecting more spending more
with family/friends time with family
(digitally) at home
months
41% 39%
spending more time exercising
months
on hobbies more A lot less Somewhat less About the same Somewhat more A lot more
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey, March 27–30, 2020 (N = 2,944 US), unweighted; representative within ±3% of US census.
Note: Question text: “Which types of things are you doing more of while at home during the coronavirus outbreak?” and “If the coronavirus
were to be under control in [1 month/3 months/6 months], what do you think your spending habits would be like at that point?”
tration in developed markets, particularly around the world—and in turn, on future
in older age groups. real-world consumer spending.
In our next Snapshot, we will assess the latest
Silver Linings differences in consumer sentiment and spend-
As consumers around the world continue ing behaviors across the globe, and look at the
to cocoon at home, many of them are find- impact of COVID-19 in additional emerging
ing ways to use the time beneficially— markets.
investing extra time in hobbies, exercising,
or spending time (virtually or in person)
with family and friends. Most of them plan
to return to normal spending once the Notes:
virus is under control. (See Exhibit 10.) 1. Reflects the average daily growth rate (rounded up
from 17.73%) for the countries other than China in
Although this widespread intention gives this study: Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, the
us hope for a solid recovery, the length and UK, and the US.
difficulty of the battle against COVID-19, 2. Numbers of cases are based on World Health
Organization Situation Reports, China State Council,
as it plays out, will undoubtedly have a
and National Health Commission of the PRC.
huge influence on national economies
About the Research
BCG’s COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Snapshot series is based on data drawn from an online survey of
consumers that is conducted every one to two weeks across multiple countries worldwide. Each Snapshot
highlights a selection of insights from a comprehensive ongoing study that BCG provides to clients. The
survey is produced by the authors, who are members of BCG’s Center for Customer Insight (CCI), in part-
nership with coding and sampling provider Dynata, the world’s largest first-party data and insights plat-
form. The goal of the research is to provide our clients and businesses around the world with periodic ba-
rometer readings of COVID-19-related consumer sentiment and actual and anticipated consumer
behavior and spending to inform critical crisis triage activities, as well as rebound planning and decision
making. The research does not prompt consumers about the virus when asking many of the key ques-
tions, including questions about spending changes in the next six months, in order to avoid biasing the
results. A team composed of BCG consultants and experts from CCI completes the survey analytics.
Boston Consulting Group | COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Snapshot #4 7Acknowledgments
We appreciate the generous support provided by the following people in producing this research and asso-
ciated article series:
•• Practice Leadership: Rohan Sajdeh, Jean-Manuel Izaret, Niki Lang, Jason Guggenheim, Pranay
JhunJhunwala, and Stephane Cairole
•• In-Market Leadership: In Europe, Diederik Vismans, Gabriele Ferri, and Jessica Distler; in Canada,
Kathleen Polsinello; in China, Vincent Lui and Cinthia Chen
•• Global and US Team: Dan Metzel, Greg McRoskey, Ben DeStein, Andrea Mendoza, Madeleine
Macks, Christian Ueland, Ariel Hudes, Thomas Uhler, Ian Irungu, and Lolly Buenaventura
ǟǟ China team: Roger Hu, Sherry Hong, and Florence Li
ǟǟ Europe team (UK, France, Italy, Germany): Maxence Jalaleddine, Bram Philippen, Raphael
Estripeau, Jiawei Liu, Elodie Yuan, Joe Boydell, Filippo Bozzoli, Martin Sieg, Jakob Haßler, and
Karolina Palmowska
ǟǟ Canada team: Dan Bodley, Sebastiaan Peeters, Shawn Betel, and Maneka Chitiprolu
ǟǟ Emerging markets team: Isha Chawla, Prashant Srivash, and Ankur Jain.
We also thank BCG’s Center for Customer Insight (CCI) team globally, Scott Wallace, and Dynata.
About the Authors/Research Study Leaders
Lara Koslow is a managing director and partner in the Miami office of Boston Consulting Group, with a
focus on growth strategy, marketing, branding, consumer insight, and commercial/go-to-market topics
across industries—in particular, travel and tourism, consumer, retail, and automotive. She is the global
leader of BCG’s Center for Customer Insight and its customer-centric strategy business, as well as the
North American leader of the firm’s travel and tourism sector. You may contact her by email at koslow.
lara@bcg.com.
Jean Lee is a partner and associate director in the firm’s Seattle office, focusing on customer-centric
strategy and consumer insight across a range of consumer and social impact industries. She has deep
expertise in the travel and tourism sector and is the North America leader for BCG’s Center for Customer
Insight. You may contact her by email at lee.jean@bcg.com.
Aparna Bharadwaj is a managing director and partner in BCG’s Singapore office. She leads the Center
for Customer Insight (CCI) in the emerging markets. You may contact her by email at bharadwaj.aparna@
bcg.com.
Kanika Sanghi is a partner and associate director in the firm’s Mumbai office and the leader of BCG’s
Center for Customer Insight (CCI) in India. You may contact her by email at sanghi.kanika@bcg.com.
Nimisha Jain is a managing director and partner in BCG’s New Delhi office and leads the Marketing,
Sales & Pricing practice in Asia Pacific. You may contact her by email at jain.nimisha@bcg.com.
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