DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2018 - RESEARCH

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DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2018 - RESEARCH
RESEARCH

DUBLIN
OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
2018

OCCUPIER TRENDS   INVESTMENT TRENDS   MARKET OUTLOOK
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2018 - RESEARCH
SUMMARY                                     REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2018
                                                Total space let across the top ten deals in 2017
    1. 	Ireland was the fastest growing        exceeded the combined top ten deals completed
       economy in Europe for a fourth
       consecutive year in 2017 as the
                                                between 2009 and 2016 as new supply unlocked
       economy expanded by 7.3%                 pent-up demand.

    2. Take-up
       	       reached 3.6 million sq ft
       in 2017 – the highest level ever         Economy                                            matching the new office space supply of
                                                                                                   1.9 million sq ft delivered in 2017.
                                                A pick-up in economic growth and the
       	
    3. Prime Grade A rents finished 2017
       at €62.50 psf
                                                continuation of an accommodative
                                                monetary policy will support investment
                                                                                                   Occupier market
                                                flows to European real estate in the               2017 saw the highest level of activity
                                                coming year. Data from Eurostat                    ever recorded in the Dublin market,
    4. P
        rime yields compressed to
                                                shows that the European economy                    with 3.6 million sq ft let as the market
       4.00% by year-end, down from                                                                expanded for the fifth consecutive year.
                                                expanded by 2.5% in 2017, outpacing
       4.50% at the start of the year                                                              While robust levels of letting activity were
                                                the United States which grew by 2.3%.
                                                The rosier backdrop on the continent
    5. 1.9 million sq ft of office space was   added further impetus to the domestic
                                                                                                   FIGURE 1
        completed in 2017 with 2.7 million      performance in 2017 as Ireland was the
                                                                                                   Take-up by location, 2017
        sq ft projected for 2018                fastest growing economy in Europe for
                                                 a fourth year in a row according to the                                              5% WEST
                                                European Commission.                                                                  SUBURBS

                                                                                                                                          2% NORTH
                                                While growth is expected to moderate                                      FRINGE
                                                                                                                                          SUBURBS
                                                                                                               SOUTH
                                                from the 7.3% recorded last year to                           SUBURBS      13%
                                                4.4% in 2018 and 3.1% in 2019, Ireland
                                                will remain in the upper echelons of the
                                                                                                                19%
                                                European growth table in the coming
                                                years. The labour market edged closer to
                                                full employment in 2017 as the circa
                                                50,000 new jobs created brought the
                                                unemployment rate to 6.2% at year-end.                             CITY CENTRE
                                                According to our calculations and                                     61%
                                                factoring in depreciation of existing stock,
                                                this will have resulted in office occupier
                                                demand arising from jobs growth                    Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                Top 5 office leasing transactions, 2017

                                                Qtr    Property                                           Tenant            Sector       Size
                                                                                                                                       (sq ft)
                                                Q4     One Microsoft Place, Leopardstown,                 Microsoft         TMT        300,000
                                                       Dublin 18

                                                Q4     100 & 300 Capital Dock, Sir John Rogerson’s        Indeed            TMT        211,393
                                                       Quay, Dublin 2

                                                Q2     The Beckett Building, East Wall, Dublin 3          Facebook          TMT        170,000

                                                Q2     Block H, Central Park, Dublin 18                   AIB               Finance    158,000

                                                Q4     One Wilton, Wilton Terrace, Dublin 2               LinkedIn          TMT        152,000

                                                Source: Knight Frank Research

2
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2018                                                                                                         RESEARCH

observed throughout the year, the final                                                                as many of the major players here
                                                                                                                                                     FIGURE 3
quarter witnessed an average deal size                                                                 continue to expand and also as some
                                                                                                                                                     Dublin prime office rents
of 23,852 sq ft – well over double the                                                                 of the US companies which might have          € per sq ft per annum
norm for a typical quarter – as a number                                                               landed in London will now look to Dublin
of large deals transacted. In fact, total                                                              as their base for Europe as a result of       €70
space let across the top ten deals in 2017                                                             Brexit. We also expect to see an increase
exceeded the combined top ten deals                                                                    in the number and size of deals that will     €60

completed between 2009 and 2016 as                                                                     be done as a direct result of Brexit in
                                                                                                                                                     €50
new supply unlocked pent-up demand.                                                                    the financial and professional services
                                                                                                       sectors with the likes of Morgan Stanley,     €40
The demand was mainly driven by
                                                                                                       Bank of America, CITI and Goldman             €30
the TMT (Technology, Media and
                                                                                                       Sachs all having declared their intention
Telecommunications) sector which                                                                                                                     €20
                                                                                                       to expand their presence in Ireland.
accounted for 51% of take-up with
                                                                                                       The vacancy rate declined by 0.1% in Q4
Microsoft’s occupation of their new                                                                                                                  €10
                                                                                                       to stand at 7.2% at year-end, down from
300,000 sq ft campus in Leopardstown
                                                                                                       7.7% at the beginning of the year while        €0
and Indeed’s taking of 211,000 sq ft at

                                                                                                                                                           2005
                                                                                                                                                                  2006
                                                                                                                                                                         2007
                                                                                                                                                                                2008
                                                                                                                                                                                       2009
                                                                                                                                                                                              2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                     2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                            2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2017
                                                                                                       rents grew from €60.00 to €62.50 psf
the soon to be completed Capital Dock
                                                                                                       over the period.
the largest of these. LinkedIn, Facebook                                                                                                             Source: Knight Frank Research
and Google also substantially increased
their footprint in 2017.                                                                               Development market                            Hibernia REIT’s 1SJRQ will further
While TMT was the standout performer,                                                                  The recovery of office development            enhance the appeal of the south
there was an increase in activity across                                                               activity continued in earnest in 2017, with   docklands. Additional space will also be
the market, with the Finance and State                                                                 1.9 million sq ft of office accommodation     delivered in suburban locations including
sectors also performing particularly                                                                   delivered, the largest amount of space        Elm Park and Central Park where
well. Finance accounted for 20% of                                                                     to be completed this cycle. 83% of this       Chartered Land/Starwood Capital and
the market, led by AIB who let 273,000                                                                 space has already been let, with notable      Green REIT are developing respectively.
sq ft across two locations – 10                                                                        completions including new headquarters        While the increase in the development
Molesworth Street and Block H, Central                                                                 for Microsoft, LinkedIn, Amazon and The       pipeline will go some way to addressing
Park – while the State accounted for                                                                   Central Bank. Looking ahead, more than        pent-up demand, 34% of 2018 delivery
10% of the market, the largest being                                                                   2.7 million sq ft is due to come on stream    has already been let suggesting that the
the OPW’s letting of 143,000 sq ft at                                                                  this year of which approximately 40% will     disequilibrium between demand and
Miesian Plaza.                                                                                         be in the docklands.                          supply will persist.
Activity continued to focus on the city                                                                The delivery of Ballymore Oxley’s No.1
centre which accounted for 61% of
take-up, followed by the south suburbs
                                                                                                       and No.2 Dublin Landings in the north
                                                                                                       docklands will continue the rejuvenation
                                                                                                                                                     Investment
with 19% and the city fringe with 13%.                                                                 of this area, while Kennedy Wilson’s          The market in 2017 was defined by a
Looking ahead, we anticipate another                                                                   Capital Docks, Park Development’s             stabilisation of investment volumes with
strong year in 2018 from the tech sector                                                               Reflector, Irish Life’s City Quay and         €2.3 billion worth of deals changing

FIGURE 2
Office take-up sq ft
                                                                                                         KNIGHT FRANK VIEW ON RISK
4,000,000
                                                                                                         Following nine quarters without             from 2012 to 2015. That phase was
3,500,000                                                                                                movement between Q1 2015 and Q2             largely driven by aggressive rental
                                                                                                         2017, prime office yields contracted        growth expectations as Ireland’s
3,000,000
                                                                                                         by 0.25% in both Q3 and Q4 to               economic recovery took hold and
2,500,000                                                                                                finish 2017 at 4.00%. The renewed           Dublin moved from a distressed
                                                                                                         downward pressure on yields reflects        market to a recovery market. With
2,000,000
                                                                                                         the transitioning of the Dublin market to   the recovery now firmly established,
1,500,000                                                                                                core status in the eyes of international    the latest yield movements reflect
                                                                                                         capital markets, which is attracting        the entry of longer-term international
1,000,000
                                                                                                         funds with global core mandates             capital with lower return expectations
  50,0000                                                                                                to bid here. This yield compression         seeking security of income, liquidity
                                                                                                         marks the latest phase of tightening        and diversification benefits, qualities
       0
                                                                                                         that the Dublin market has undergone        which the Dublin office market
            2005
                   2006
                          2007
                                 2008
                                        2009
                                               2010
                                                      2011
                                                             2012
                                                                    2013
                                                                           2014
                                                                                  2015
                                                                                         2016
                                                                                                2017

                                                                                                         following the recovery phase which ran      now present.
Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2018                                                                                           RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                             PO
TMT ACTIVITY IN CITY CORE

                                                                                                                                                 RT
                                                                                                                                                   LA
                                          KEY                                                                                                                                2 Dockland Central                  The Beckett Building,

                                                                                                                                                     ND
                                                                                                                                                                             Date: Q1 & Q3 2017                  East Wall

                                                                                                                                                        RO
                                                                  LETTINGS                                                                                                   Rent: €52.50 psf                    Date: Q2 2017

                                                                                                                                                           W
                                                                                                                                                                             Take-up: 32,480 sq ft
                                                                  INVESTMENTS                                                                                                                                    Rent: €22.00 psf
                                                                                                                                                                             Tenant: Hubspot                     Take-up: 170,000 sq ft
                                                                  DEVELOPMENTS                                                                                                                                   Tenant: Facebook
                                                                  SDZ BOUNDARY                                                                          CONNOLLY
                                                                  DART RAIL LINE                                                                      TRAIN STATION
                                                                  LUAS TRAM LINE                                                                                                                                                         100 & 300 Capital Dock,
                                                                  LUAS TRAM LINE                                                                                                                                                         Sir John Rogerson’s Quay
                                                                                                                                                      1 Dockland Central                                                                 Date: Q4 2017

                                                                          O‘C O
                                                                                                                                                      Date: Q4 2015                                                                      Rent: €53.50 psf

                                                                                                                                         ET
                                                                                                                                                      Rent: €45.00 psf                                                                   Take-up: 211,393 sq ft

                                                                                                                                      TRE
                                                                            N N EL
                                                                                                                                                      Take-up: 27,500 sq ft                         SHERIFF ST                           Tenant: Indeed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 REET UPPE

                                                                                                                                       SS
                                                                                                                                                      Tenant: Hubspot
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   R

                                                                              L STR

                                                                                                                                    IEN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5 Grand
                                                                                                                                                                                                    the                   Canal Square

                                                                                                                                  AM

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               D
                                                                                  EET
                                                                                                                                                                                                 convention               Date: Q4 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            E WALL ROA
                                                                                                                                            1WML                                                   centre                 Rent: €45.00 psf
                                                                                                            AY                                                                                                            Take-up: 126,376 sq ft
                                                                                                    N QU                                    Date: Q2 2017                                                                                                          3ARENA
                                                                                                ED E                                        Rent: €55.00 psf
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Tenant: Facebook
                                                                                                                                            Take-up: 23,767 sq ft
                                                                                                         ES QUAY
                                                                                                     EORG                                   Tenant: Core Media                                              4 Grand Canal Square
                                                                                                   G                                                                                                        Date: Q4 2013
                                                                               UA       Y                                                                                                                   Rent: €35.00 psf
                                                                         O  NQ                                                 1WML                                               CITY QUA
                                                                    AST                                                        Date: Q1 2017                                                    Y           Take-up: 121,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Tenant: Facebook
                                                                                                                               Rent: €55.00 psf
                                                                                                                               Take-up: 35,000 sq ft
                                                                                                             TRINITY
                                                                                                             COLLEGE
                                                                                                                               Tenant: Informatica                                                                                                                   8 Hanover Quay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Date: Q1 2016
                NORTH                                                                                         DUBLIN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Price: €32,000,000
               SUBURBS                      31-32 Golden Lane                                                                                                                                                                                                        Yield: 4.41%
                                            Date: Q2 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5 Hanover Quay                         Purchaser: BNP Paribas
                                            Rent: €47.00 psf                                                           4 & 5 Grand                                                        GRAND CANAL                                                                Tenant: Airbnb
                                            Take-up: 31,000 sq ft                                                      Canal Square                                                                                           Date: Q4 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                   PEAENERGY
                                                                                                                                                                                      RSE S THEATRE
                                            Tenant: New Relic                                                          Date: Q1 2015                                                       TREET                              Rent: €57.50 psf
                                                                                                                       Price: €233,000,000                                                                                    Take-up: 61,333 sq ft

                                                                                                ET

                                                                                                                  ST
                                                                                                                       Yield: 4.31%                            Cumberland House                                               Tenant: Delphi

                                                                                              N STRE
                                                                        GRAFTON                                                                                Date: Q3 2015

                                                                                                                 ARE
                                                                                                                       Purchaser: Union
                                                                         STREET                                        Tenant: Facebook                        Rent: €50.00 psf
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3 Grand Canal Quay

                                                                                                             KILD
                                                                                                                                                               Take-up: 85,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                 MO                      GR
                                                                                                                                                               Tenant: Twitter

                                                                                             DAWSO
                                                                                                                                                                            A                                                 Date: Q2 2016
                                                                                                                                                   UN                             ND                                          Rent: €65.00 psf
                                                                                                             GOVERNMENT                                TS                              CA
                                                                                                              BUILDINGS                 MERRION           TR                              N                                   Take-up: 19,095 sq ft
                   CORE                                                                                                                                        EE                             AL                              Tenant: Zalando
                                                                                                                                        SQUARE                      TL                           ST
      WEST                                                                                                                                                              OW                          LO
                            DUBLIN BAY                                                                                                                                       ER
     SUBURBS                                                                                                                                                                                           W   ER                 Montevetro
                                                                  40 Molesworth Street
                                                                             ST STEPHEN’S                         Cumberland House                                                                                            Date: Q1 2011
                                                         Date: Q2 2017                                            Date: Q3 2016                                                                                               Rent: Owner-Occupied
                                                                               GREEN
                                                         Rent: €60.00 psf                                         Rent: €53.85 psf                              Two Haddington Buildings                                      Take-up: 211,000 sq ft                                         UE
                                         CUFFE      STREETake-up:
                                                          T       30,000 sq ft                                    Take-up: 33,104 sq ft                         Date: Q2 2017                                                 Tenant: Google                                BATH AVEN
                                                         Tenant: Jet.com                                          Tenant: Mobile Travel Technologies            Rent: €48.00 psf
                                                                                                                                                                Take-up: 28,385 sq ft                              Velasco
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Date: Q2 2017
                                                                       21 Charlemont                                                                            Tenant: Dentsu Aegis Network

                                                                                                                                                 BA
                                                                                                                                             R
                                                                                                                                            PE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Rent: €55.00 psf

                                                                                                                                                   GG
                   SOUTH                                               Date: Q3 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                           RD

                                                                                                                                        UP

                                                                                                                                                     OT
                                                                                                       LE

                  SUBURBS                                              Price: €45,000,000                                                                                                             ON           Take-up: 51,096 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                    GT                                                             AVIVA STADIUM

                                                                                                                                                        ST
                                                                                                       ES

                                                                                                                                                                                                 IN                Tenant: Google

                                                                                                                                      ST
                                                                       Yield: 4.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                              DD

                                                                                                                                                                                                                NO
                                            CAMDEN STREET L

                                                                                                                                                            LO
                                                                                                                                                                                        HA
                                                                                                        ON

                                                                       Purchaser: La Francaise

                                                                                                                                  IAM

                                                                                                                                                             WE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  RTH
                                                                       Tenant: Viasat                                                                 LinkedIn EMEA HQ
                                                                                                             ST

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               SHELB
                                                                                                                                                                R
                                                                                                                                ILL
                                                                       HATCH STR           R                                                       Completion Date: Q1 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     U
                                                                                 EET L OWE
                                                                                                                 LO

                                                                                                                              ZW

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     MB
                                                                                                                                                   Type: Development
                                                                                                                  WE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             E ROAD
                                                                                                                            FIT

                                                                                                                                                   Owner: LinkedIn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    OURNE ROA D
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ER L
                                                                                                                                   LinkedIn       HQ Site
                                                                                                                       R

                                                                                                                                                   Space Delivered: 126,045 sq ft
                                            21 Charlemont                                                                          Grand Canal/Fitzwilliam Sq

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           AND
                                            Date: Q2 2017                                                                          Floorspace: 100,000 sq ft
                                                                  CH

                                                                                                                                   Delivery date: Feb 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ILL
                                            Rent: €55.00 psf

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            RO
                                                           OWER

                                                                   AR

                                            Take-up: 36,834 sq ft

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NV
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              AD
                                                                       LE

                                            Tenant: Viasat                                                   One Wilton                                         Vertium                                  Burlington Plaza                                                                                O
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    IT
                                                                        M
                                                                          ON

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  TR
                                                                                                             Completion Date: Q4 2019                           Date: Q4 2016                            Date: Q1 & Q3 2014
                                            55 Charlemont                                                    Type: Pre-let
                                                                             T

                                                                                                                                                                Rent: €50.00 psf                         Rent: €27.50 psf
                                                                               ST

                                            Date: Q2 2017                                                    Developer: IPUT                                    Take-up: 172,136 sq ft                   Take-up: 102,579 sq ft
                                            Rent: €53.50 psf                                                 Size: 152,000 sq ft                                Tenant: Amazon                           Tenant: Amazon
                                                                                      RA

                                            Take-up: 57,865 sq ft
                                                                                        NE

                                            Tenant: Zendesk
                                                                                            LA G

                                                                                                                                                        L EE
                                                                                                                                                               SO
                                                                                             H RO

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Note: All areas and delivery times noted above are approximate estimates only and subject to change
                                                                                                                                                                    N
                                                                                                                                                                        ST
4                                                                                                                                                                            UP                                                                                                                                       5
                                                                                                  AD

                                                                                                                                                                              PE
“	46% of office                                                                                hands. The lack of large lot-sized
                                                                                                    assets was best demonstrated by the
                                                                                                                                                                                                     spend. The lack of prime opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                     in the city centre encouraged investors
       investment                                                                                   fact that 17 deals in excess of €50                                                              to move up the risk curve with the
       transactions                                                                                 million occurred in 2016 as opposed
                                                                                                    to six in 2017. Despite this, the market
                                                                                                                                                                                                     purchase of suburban assets and forward-
                                                                                                                                                                                                     funding opportunities becoming more
       in Dublin were                                                                               comfortably surpassed its 10-year                                                                commonplace. This was highlighted by
       purchased by                                                                                 average of €1.8 billion.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     the sale of the Cherrywood Business Park

       Irish buyers.”                                                                               Office investment sales accounted for
                                                                                                    the largest proportion commanding
                                                                                                                                                                                                     for €145.0 million and the forward-funding
                                                                                                                                                                                                     of 13-18 City Quay for €126.3 million.
                                                                                                    39% of the market or €891.4 million.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     It was noteworthy that 46% of office
                                                                                                    Activity remained focused on Dublin with
                                                                                                    the capital attracting 93% or €830.4                                                             investment transactions in Dublin
                                                                                                    million of the total office investment                                                           were purchased by Irish buyers which
                                                                                                                                                                                                     represented a significant shift in the origin
                                                                                                                                                                                                     of the buyer profile given that purchasers
                                                                                                                                                                                                     from the US and Europe dominated the
FIGURE 4                                                                                            FIGURE 5                                                                                         market in 2016. This can be somewhat
Irish commercial investment                                                                         Dublin prime office yields                                                                       attributed to the prevalence of smaller
volumes € million                                                                                                                                                                                    lot-sized assets which are mainly of
                                                                                                                                                                                                     interest to domestic private investors.
                                                                                                    8%
5,000                                                                                                                                                                                                However, there remains considerable
                                                                                                    7%                                                                                               depth in the market with buyers from
                                                                                                                                                                                                     the US and Europe accounting for 29%
4,000                                                                                               6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     and 22% respectively. Prime yields
                                                                                                                                                                                                     compressed to 4.00% by year-end,
                                                                                                    5%
3,000                                                                                                                                                                                                down from 4.50% at the start of the year.
                                                                                                    4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Looking ahead, 2018 should see an
2,000                                                                                               3%                                                                                               increase in prime office investment
                                                                                                                                                                                                     opportunities as developers and their
                                                                                                    2%                                                                                               funders seek to exit their positions as
1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     new office stock gets delivered and let.
                                                                                                    1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Additionally, the lowering of the required
     0                                                                                              0%                                                                                               holding period, from seven to four
         2005
                2006
                       2007
                              2008
                                     2009
                                            2010
                                                   2011
                                                          2012
                                                                 2013
                                                                        2014
                                                                               2015
                                                                                      2016
                                                                                             2017

                                                                                                          2005
                                                                                                                 2006
                                                                                                                        2007
                                                                                                                               2008
                                                                                                                                      2009
                                                                                                                                             2010
                                                                                                                                                    2011
                                                                                                                                                           2012
                                                                                                                                                                  2013
                                                                                                                                                                         2014
                                                                                                                                                                                2015
                                                                                                                                                                                       2016
                                                                                                                                                                                              2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                     years, for the exemption of capital gains
                                                                                                                                                                                                     tax should also encourage the disposal
Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                       Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                    of assets.

FIGURE 6                                                                                            Top 5 office investment transactions, 2017
Buyer and vendor source, 2017

                                                                                                    Qtr          Property                                                        Seller                      Buyer               Approx price
            US                  IRELAND                     EUROPE                       UK

                                                                                                    Q4           Cherrywood Business                                             Hines                       Spear Street        €€145.0 million
    BUYERS                                                                                                       Park, Co. Dublin                                                                            Capital

                                                                                                    Q1           13-18 City Quay,                                                TIO                         Irish Life          €€126.3 million
                                                                                                                 Dublin 2

                                                          VENDORS
                                                                                                    Q3           Gardiner House,                                                 Kennedy Wilson              IPUT                  €60.0 million
                                                                                                                 Dublin 2

                                                                                                    Q3           Blocks 4 & 5 Harcourt                                           Clancourt Group             Ares                 €€47.0 million
                                                                                                                 Centre, Dublin 2

                                                                                                    Q3           21 Charlemont,                                                  Rohan Group                 La Francaise         €€45.0 million
                                                                                                                 Dublin 2

Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                       Source: Knight Frank Research

6
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2018                                                                                            RESEARCH

SPECIAL FOCUS: THE TMT SECTOR IN DUBLIN
The Technology, Media and                                                           felt the impact of tech’s rise as keenly as
                                                                                                                                         FIGURE 8
Telecommunications (TMT) sector has                                                 Dublin with Alphabet (Google), Microsoft
established itself as the most important                                            (owners of LinkedIn), Amazon and
                                                                                                                                         Relationship between TMT lettings
                                                                                                                                         and VC funding in Dublin
sector in the Dublin office market,                                                 Facebook accounting for six of the top
accounting for 51% of take-up in 2017,                                              ten deals in 2017.                                          2,000,000                                                            1,200
                                                                                                                                                                    SPACE LET TO TMT
two and half times the next nearest sector                                                                                                                          VC FUNDING TO TECH
                                                                                    These companies are no longer leaders                       1,800,000
of Finance which had a 20% market
                                                                                    just in the tech space, but – in the                        1,600,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,000
share. Just as important, the tech sector
                                                                                    preceding order – finished 2017, as
had a net take-up ratio of 62% which is                                                                                                         1,400,000
                                                                                    the largest companies in the world by                                                                                            800
much higher than the 45% experienced
                                                                                    market capitalisation only behind Apple                     1,200,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           € millions
across the rest of the market. While the
                                                                                    (European HQ in Cork). What’s more,

                                                                                                                                        sq ft
                                                                                                                                                1,000,000                                                            600
rise of the TMT industry has been a global
                                                                                    despite their already large size, they are
phenomenon with implications for office                                             expanding rapidly and leading the race to
                                                                                                                                                 800,000
markets across the world, few cities have                                           become the first trillion dollar company.                    600,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     400

                                                                                    For example, Facebook’s revenue in                           400,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     200
FIGURE 7                                                                            Q4 grew by 48% year-on-year to
                                                                                                                                                 200,000
Evolution of large tech footprint                                                   USD$12.9 billion.
in Dublin                                                                                                                                              0                                                             0

                                                                                                                                                                                                             2017*
                                                                                    Aligning its fortunes with the world’s

                                                                                                                                                            2010

                                                                                                                                                                   2011

                                                                                                                                                                          2012

                                                                                                                                                                                 2013

                                                                                                                                                                                        2014

                                                                                                                                                                                               2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                      2016
800,000                                                                             largest and fastest growing companies
                        ALPHABET (GOOGLE)                                                                                                Source: Knight Frank Research / Irish Venture
                        MICROSOFT/LINKEDIN                                          has been the primary factor in the
                                                                                                                                         Capital Association
700,000                 FACEBOOK                                                    expansion of the Dublin office market in
                                                                                                                                         *VC Funding for full year estimated by extrapolating trend for
                        AMAZON                                                      recent years. As illustrated in Figure 7,
600,000                                                                                                                                  the first three quarters of the year
                                                                                    the growth in large TMT firms in Dublin
500,000                                                                             has mainly come post-2010, with the                  Lastly, putting Dublin in an international
400,000                                                                             quantum of space taken increasing                    context yields some interesting results.
                                                                                    fourfold over the period. This is a trend            Although the top five companies occupy
300,000                                                                             that shows no sign of abating with further           less space in Dublin than in London
                                                                                    high-profile expansion announcements                 and New York in absolute terms – an
200,000
                                                                                    expected in 2018. Interestingly, Figure              estimated 2.0 million sq ft versus
100,000                                                                             8 shows that venture capital funding to              2.6 million sq ft and 3.1 million sq ft
                                                                                    tech in Dublin is trending upwards along             respectively – they account for a much
       0
                                                                                    with tech take-up which is supportive                higher relative footprint in Dublin – 4.9%
           Pre 2010
                      2010

                             2011

                                    2012

                                           2013

                                                  2014

                                                         2015

                                                                2016

                                                                       2017

                                                                                    of the view that the arrival of these                versus 1.1% and 0.7%. It is worth
                                                                                    established global firms is helping foster           noting, however, that the space occupied
Source: Knight Frank Research                                                       start-up activity in Dublin.                         across the three of these cities pales in

Footprint comparison of top tech companies in key global locations

  Company                       Business                          Market value                   Dublin         London        New York               Global HQ                    Global HQ
                                segment                          ($USD billions)*                 (sq ft)         (sq ft)            (sq ft)                   (sq ft)            location
                                Consumer
  Apple                                                                       861                      -        171,000             46,370             6,100,000                  San Francisco, CA
                                Electronics

  Alphabet
                                Search                                        729               748,331       1,100,000            993,091             7,860,000                  San Francisco, CA
  (Google)

  Microsoft/                                                                                  306,448 &        50,000 &       331,427 &               14,900,000                  Seattle, WA & San
                                Software                                      660
  LinkedIn                                                                                      191,497          70,000         195,248              & 1,083,000                  Francisco, CA

  Amazon                        E-Commerce                                    564               288,805         793,000            700,697            13,600,000                  Seattle, WA

  Facebook                      Social Media                                  515               417,376         400,000            808,355             2,000,000                  San Francisco, CA

  Total                                                                  3,329                1,952,457       2,584,000           3,075,188           45,543,000

  Office Stock                                                                               39,500,000     226,000,000     443,000,000

  Footprint                                                                                        4.9%            1.1%               0.7%

Source: Knight Frank Research
*as at 2nd January 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           7
comparison to their operations in their                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            unprecedented pressure. This is leading                                                                                                                                                                                      RESEARCH
                                     respective Global HQ cities which stands                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           to fears that a key competitive advantage                                                                                                                                                                                    John Ring, Head of Research
                                     at over 45.5 million sq ft combined.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               is being eroded. However, judging by                                                                                                                                                                                         +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        activity in 2017, this has not deterred tech                                                                                                                                                                                 john.ring@ie.knightfrank.com

                                     RISKS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              firms from pressing ahead with expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        plans in Dublin suggesting that the old IDA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Robert O’Connor, Research Analyst
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     +353 1 634 2466
                                     Tech crash – there are concerns that                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               mantra of ‘Come for the tax and stay for                                                                                                                                                                                     robert.oconnor@ie.knightfrank.com
                                     being too closely tied to the tech industry                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        the talent’ is proving true.
                                     exposes Dublin to a Dot-com type crash                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          CAPITAL MARKETS
                                     as occurred in the early 2000’s. While                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Adrian Trueick, Director
                                     apprehensions regarding toppy tech stock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        OUTLOOK                                                                                                                                                                                                                      +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        While much of the discussion regarding                                                                                                                                                                                       adrian.trueick@ie.knightfrank.com
                                     market valuations may be legitimate, the
                                     difference for many of today’s tech firms is                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       potential benefits to the Dublin office                                                                                                                                                                                      Peter Flanagan, Director
                                     that they have built-up large cash reserves                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        market arising from Brexit has focused on                                                                                                                                                                                    +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        the Finance sector, it is our opinion that                                                                                                                                                                                   peter.flanagan@ie.knightfrank.com
                                     from established revenue streams so they
                                     are well positioned to withstand                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   the Tech sector holds the real potential                                                                                                                                                                                     Ross Fogarty, Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        for a Brexit bounce. With TMT companies                                                                                                                                                                                      +353 1 634 2466
                                     fluctuations in market value.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        highly reliant on sourcing skilled talent                                                                                                                                                                                    ross.fogarty@ie.knightfrank.com
                                     Tax pressure – The EU ruling on Apple’s                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            from across the EU, the uncertainty
                                     tax affairs in Ireland combined with a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             regarding foreign worker visas in the UK                                                                                                                                                                                     OFFICES
                                     tougher stance by the United States                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                following Brexit may see firms choose to                                                                                                                                                                                     Declan O’Reilly, Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     +353 1 634 2466
                                     on foreign cash holdings has resulted                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              grow operations in Dublin rather than risk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     declan.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
                                     in Ireland’s tax policy coming under                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               employee shortages in London.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Paul Hanly, Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     paul.hanly@ie.knightfrank.com
                     Overall market ranking of the top TMT deals 2010-2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jim O’Reilly, Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     +353 1 634 2466
                                      Rank                           Year                              Tenant                                                                                                                                                           Property                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     jim.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
                                      1                              2017                              Microsoft                                                                                                                                                        One Microsoft Place, Leopardstown                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   300,000                  Gavin Maguire, Associate Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        100 & 300 Capital Dock, Sir John
                                      2                              2017                              Indeed                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               211,393                  gavin.maguire@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rogersons Quay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mark Headon, Associate Director
                                      3                              2011                              Google                                                                                                                                                           Montevetro, Barrow Street                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           211,000                  +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     mark.headon@ie.knightfrank.com
                                      5                              2016                              Amazon                                                                                                                                                           Vertium, Burlington Road                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            172,136
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     David Reddy, Associate Director
                                      6                              2017                              Facebook                                                                                                                                                         The Beckett Building, East Wall                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     170,000                  +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     david.reddy@ie.knightfrank.com
                                      8                              2017                              LinkedIn                                                                                                                                                         One Wilton, Wilton Terrace                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          152,000

                                      13                             2014                              Facebook                                                                                                                                                         5 Grand Canal Square                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                126,376

                                      14                             2014                              LinkedIn                                                                                                                                                         LinkedIn EMEA HQ, Lad Lane                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          126,045

                                      15                             2013                              Facebook                                                                                                                                                         4 Grand Canal Square                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                121,000

                                      22                             2015                              Workday                                                                                                                                                          The Kings Building, Smithfield                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          95,000

                   Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   © HT Meagher O’Reilly trading as Knight Frank
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   This report is published for general information only and not to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or
                   RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     liability whatsoever can be accepted by HT Meagher O’Reilly
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   trading as Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents
                                                                                                            RESEARCH                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   of this document. As a general report, this material does
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             RESEARCH
                                                                                                            INDUSTRIAL MARKET INSIGHT - 2017 IN REVIEW                                                                                                                                                                                                                    INVESTMENT INSIGHT - 2017 IN REVIEW
                                                                                                            While rising employment levels and                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Despite a strong finish to the year         Office sales comprised of the largest     FIGURE 3
                                                                                                            household incomes are underpinning                                                                                                                                                                                                                            - with €965.3 million transacting           proportion of activity with 39% of

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   not necessarily represent the view of HT Meagher O’Reilly
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Investment spend by sector
                                                                                                            increases in consumer spending, the                                                                                                                                                                                                                           during Q4 - 2017 was defined by a           the market or €891.4 million. The
                                                                                                            proliferation of digital technologies means                                                                                                                                                                                                                   stabilisation of investment volumes         lack of opportunities in the city
                                                                                                            that a growing share of this expenditure                                                                                                                                                                                                                      with approximately €2.3 billion worth       centre induced investors to move                                     %            2
                                                                                                            is happening on-line. This was                                                                                                                                                                                                                                of deals changing hands. While              up the risk curve with the purchase                      %        4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        STUDENT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ACCOMMODATION   %   1                       Residential
                                                                                                            demonstrated in Eurostat’s 2017 survey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          investor appetite for Irish real estate     of suburban assets and forward-                       6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      % MULTI-FAMILY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      RESIDENTIAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             THE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             HENRY
                                                                                                            on ICT which showed that 18% of Irish                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 HOTEL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          remained robust, volumes were               funding opportunities becoming more
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                %    6                                                              Student Accommodation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   trading as Knight Frank in relation to particular properties
                                                                                                            people purchased household goods on-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      commonplace. This was highlighted INDUSTRIAL
                                                                                                            line in 2017, up from 10% five years ago.                                                                                                                                                                                                                     constrained by a shortage of large
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          lot-sized assets as a result of the         by the sale of a confidential suburban
                                                                                                            This phenomenon has acted as a driving                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Multi Family
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      asset for €145.0 million and Irish Life’s
                                                            THE 2018 REPORT                                 force behind recent demand for industrial                                                                                                                                                                                                                     decline in the deleveraging activity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                39%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             STREET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      forward-funding of 13-18 City Quay for
                                                                                                            space, with research by Standard Life
                                                                                                            Investments1 illustrating that e-commerce
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          and loan portfolio sales which had
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          characterised the market up until now.      €126.3 million. Retail sales accounted               %
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     MIXED-USE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10                          OFFICE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Hotel
                                                                                                            requires twice as much industrial space                                                                                                                                                                                                                       The lack of large lot-sized assets was      for 32% of the total spend or €714.3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part
                                                                                                            as traditional bricks and mortar retail for a                                     Unit 103, Northwest Business Park, Ballycoolin, Dublin 15 which Knight Frank sold in Q4 2017.                                                                               best demonstrated by the fact that          million. While half of this was driven by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Industrial
                                                                                                            given amount of sales.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        17 deals in excess of €50.0 million         the disposal of shopping centres and

                                                                                                            Adding a further layer to demand, was the                                       FIGURE 2                                                                         FIGURE 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          occurred in 2016 as opposed to six
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          deals in 2017, the largest of which
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      retail parks, there was also significant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      interest in high-street retail assets,                    RETAIL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       %       32                                   Mixed-Use
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             REPORT
                                                                                                            sharp increase in industrial production                                         Take-up by location                                                              Deal size share of market in sq m
                                                                                                            in 2017, with Investec’s Manufacturing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          FIGURE 1                                    FIGURE 2                                                                                                      Retail
                                                                                                            Purchasing Managers’ Index finishing the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3%                                                           9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   is not allowed without prior written approval of HT Meagher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Irish commercial investment volumes         Investment spend by location                     Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                            year at 59.1 – the strongest reading in the
                                                                                                            history of the series – up from 55.7 a year
                                                                                                                                                                                                       7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      NORTH-EAST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              SOUTH-EAST
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         South East
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10,001+ sq m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10,001+
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          € million
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Office
                                                                                                            earlier.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         North East               8%                     9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        501-1,000 sq m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5,001-10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2500                                                                                        FIGURE 4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Investment spend by buyer origin
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