DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2019 WITH SPECIAL FOCUS: THE TECH SECTOR IN DUBLIN - Knight Frank

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DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2019 WITH SPECIAL FOCUS: THE TECH SECTOR IN DUBLIN - Knight Frank
RESEARCH

DUBLIN
OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
2019
WITH SPECIAL FOCUS:
THE TECH SECTOR IN DUBLIN

OCCUPIER TRENDS   INVESTMENT TRENDS   MARKET OUTLOOK
SUMMARY                                          REVIEW AND
    1.	Ireland was the fastest growing
                                                     OUTLOOK 2019
        economy in Europe for a fifth                Facebook’s 870,000 sq ft mega deal at Ballsbridge
        consecutive year in 2018,
        expanding by an estimated 6.8%
                                                     drives annual take-up to the highest level ever achieved.

    2. Take-up reached 3.9 million sq ft             Economy                                     Occupier market
       in 2018 – the highest level ever              According to the European Commission’s      Occupier activity expanded for a sixth
                                                     Winter Economic Forecast, the Irish         consecutive year in 2018 establishing a
    3. Prime Grade-A rents remained 		               economy is estimated to have expanded       new record for the highest level of letting
                                                     by 6.8% in 2018 making it the fastest       activity ever recorded in the Dublin office
       unchanged in 2018 at €62.50 psf
                                                     growing economy in Europe for a fifth       market as 3.9 million sq ft transacted. This
                                                     consecutive year. This robust               represents an 8% increase in comparison
    4.	Prime yields remained stable at              performance saw the unemployment
        4.00% throughout 2018                        rate continue its downward trajectory,      FIGURE 2
                                                     falling to 5.7% at the end of 2018, down    Office take-up sq ft
    5.	2.0 million sq ft of office space            from 6.2% the year previous. Looking
                                                     ahead, economic activity is anticipated     4,000,000
        was completed in 2018 with 2.2
        million sq ft projected for 2019             to advance at a relatively solid pace in
                                                                                                 3,500,000
                                                     2019, with the European Commission
                                                     projecting that the economy will grow by    3,000,000
                                                     4.1% this year.
                                                                                                 2,500,000
                                                     While this growth outlook is heavily
                                                     contingent upon a soft Brexit, Ireland is   2,000,000

                                                     currently forecast to be the second
                                                                                                 1,500,000
                                                     fastest growing economy in Europe along
                                                     with Slovakia – with Malta occupying the    1,000,000
                                                     top spot. Additionally – in what will be
                                                     positive news for the office market – the    500,000

                                                     Central Bank is also suggesting that the
                                                                                                        0
                                                     labour market recovery is far from
                                                                                                             2005
                                                                                                             2006
                                                                                                             2007
                                                                                                                    2008
                                                                                                                    2009
                                                                                                                    2010
                                                                                                                    2011
                                                                                                                    2012
                                                                                                                    2013
                                                                                                                    2014
                                                                                                                    2015
                                                                                                                                     2016
                                                                                                                                     2017
                                                                                                                                     2018
                                                     complete, forecasting that 50,000 jobs
                                                     will be created this year.                  Source: Knight Frank Research
FIGURE 1
Ireland vs EU-28 GDP growth rates

                                                        KNIGHT FRANK VIEW ON RISK
8%
                                          FORECAST

7%
                                                        Of all the risks that face the office    occupancy ratio of 130 sq ft per
6%                                                      market, the potential for overbuilding   worker and an obsolescence rate of
                                                        will always be the most analysed.        1% for existing stock, this equated
5%
                                                        Looking back at demand in 2018,          to demand for 2.1 million sq ft of
                                                        the Central Statistics Office’s Labour   new office space. Therefore, the
4%
                                                        Force Survey showed that 50,500          2.0 million sq ft of new office stock
3%                                                      jobs were created in Ireland last        delivered in 2018 was approximately
                                                        year, of which 25,900 (or 51%)           in-line with estimated demand.
2%                                                      were located in Dublin. Given that       Looking ahead, with similar job
                                                        office based employment accounts         creation of 50,000 expected this
1%         IRELAND                                      for half of new jobs, an estimated       year, the 2.2 million sq ft due for
           EU-28                                        12,950 new workers took up office        delivery in 2019 also looks to be
    0
        2016    2017    2018   2019   2020              space in Dublin in 2018. Using an        approximately in-line with demand.
Source: EU Commission

2
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2019                                                     RESEARCH

                                                 was the second largest sector with
FIGURE 3                                                                                         FIGURE 5
                                                 13%. This was driven by the expansion           Dublin prime office rents
Take-up by location
                                                 of WeWork who took 343,000 sq ft                € per sq ft per annum

                           2%                    across Charlemont Exchange, No. 2
                                                 Dublin Landings, Central Plaza and 5            €70
                           NORTH SUBURBS
                                                 Harcourt Road.
                                                                                                 €60
                                                 The Finance sector accounted for the next
                                                                                                 €50
                WEST                             highest market share with 12%, followed
               SUBURBS
      SOUTH                                      by the State and Professional Services,
     SUBURBS      7%                                                                             €40
                                                 both of which had 7%. Looking ahead to
       11%                                       2019, occupier demand is forecast to
                                                                                                 €30

      FRINGE                                     remain strong, however the volume of            €20
       7%                                        take-up is likely to moderate in
                                                                                                 €10
                                                 comparison to 2018. Furthermore, there
                            CITY CENTRE          may be renewed upward pressure on

                                72%
                                                                                                   0

                                                                                                       2005
                                                                                                              2006
                                                                                                                     2007
                                                                                                                            2008
                                                                                                                                   2009
                                                                                                                                          2010
                                                                                                                                                 2011
                                                                                                                                                        2012
                                                                                                                                                               2013
                                                                                                                                                                      2014
                                                                                                                                                                             2015
                                                                                                                                                                                    2016
                                                                                                                                                                                           2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2018
                                                 prime rents, particularly in the City Centre
                                                 given that 60% of the pipeline that will be
                                                                                                 Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                 delivered there is already let.

                                                                                                 Development market
Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                 FIGURE 4                                        2.0 million sq ft of new and refurbished
to the 3.6 million sq ft that was let in 2017.   Take-up by sector                               office space was completed in 2018,
Prime rents remained stable throughout                                                           representing the largest quantum to be
the year at €62.50 psf while the vacancy
rate contracted to 6.2%, down from
                                                                 2% 1%                           delivered this cycle. Notable completions
                                                                                                 included Kennedy Wilson’s Capital Docks,
6.8% a year previously.                            3%                                            Starwood/Chartered Land’s Seamark
                                                                           7%                    Building and the Clancourt Group’s Three
An extraordinary 72% of take-up was                         12%                                  Park Place which comprised of 340,000
concentrated in the City Centre, much                                               13%          sq ft, 182,500 sq ft and 175,000 sq ft
higher than the 5-year average of 56%.
                                                                                                 respectively. In 2019 we predict output to
While Dublin 2 accounted for the majority            7%
of take-up with a 34% market share,                                                    5%        rise by 10% to 2.2 million sq ft.
the City Centre’s increased share was                                                            However, in the City Centre, supply is
driven by the improved performance                                                               expected to be more constrained with only
of Dublin 4 which comprised 30% of                                                               1.4 million sq ft due to be delivered
occupier activity – a fivefold increase in                                                       compared to the 1.7 million sq ft that was
comparison to 2017. This was largely                                                             completed in 2018. The reduction in the
due to Facebook’s decision to create a                                52%                        City Centre will be more than offset by the
new 870,000 sq ft campus at Ballsbridge.                                                         greater focus on suburban development
Elsewhere in Dublin 4, Google acquired                TMT               FINANCE      STATE       where 800,000 sq ft is expected to be
Bolands Quay which will incorporate                   PROFESSIONAL      EDUCATION    COWORKING   delivered. Notable developments include
                                                      SERVICES
220,732 sq ft of office space upon                    PHARMA            MEDICAL      OTHER
                                                                                                 Two and Three Dublin Airport Central
completion later this year with the                                                              (207,000 sq ft), Nova Atria South (175,000
development providing a strategic                Source: Knight Frank Research                   sq ft) and One South County (141,000 sq ft).
expansion of the company’s existing
footprint at Barrow Street. Outside of the
City Centre, Google also made it’s first         Top 5 office take-up deals of 2018
foray into the Sandyford office market
                                                  Property                                             Tenant                             Sector                       Size (sq ft)
with deals at the Chase and the
Blackthorn Building of 52,925 sq ft and           Facebook Campus, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4               Facebook                           TMT                                870,000
48,522 sq ft respectively. The South
                                                  Bolands Quay, Dublin 4                               Google                             TMT                                220,732
Suburbs had an 11% market share while
the Fringe and the West Suburbs both              Blocks A-D, Charlemont Exchange, Dublin 2            WeWork                             Coworking                          120,618
comprised 7%.
                                                  1 Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2                 Hubspot                            TMT                                113,034
While TMT was the standout performer
                                                  Three Park Place, Dublin 2                           IDA                                State                              112,000
accounting for 52% of the market, 2018
saw rapid growth in Coworking, which             Source: Knight Frank Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                  3
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2019                                                                                                                                    RESEARCH

                  TOP TAKE-UP, INVESTMENTS AND DEVELOP MENTS IN 2018

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The Beckett Building

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Date: Q2 2018

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                                                  TAKE-UP                                                                                        GRANGEGORMAN

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Yield: 4.15%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Price: €101,000,000

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                                                  INVESTMENTS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13-18 City Quay

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Purchaser: Kookmin Bank

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                                                  DEVELOPMENTS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Date: Q3 2018

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Type: Development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          No.2 Dublin Landings

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                                                  DART RAIL LINE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Owner: Irish Life                                      STATION

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Date: Q2 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Space Delivered: 117,757 sq ft                                                                                          No.2 Dublin Landings
                                                  LUAS TRAM LINE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Type: Development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Date: Q1 2018
                                                                                                                                                    The Infinity Building                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Owner: JR AMC
                                                  LUAS TRAM LINE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Rent: €50.00 psf

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                     T ITU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     O’CO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Space Delivered: 99,500 sq ft

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         EET
                                                                                                                                                    Date: Q4 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Take-up: 99,500 sq ft

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ER
                                                                                                                                                    Yield: 5.18%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       New Century House                                                      Tenant: WeWork

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         NNEL
                                                                                                                                                    Price: €56,600,000

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      STR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Date: Q3 2018                                                          Sector: Coworking
                                                                                                                                                    Purchaser: Credit Suisse                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              No.2 Dublin Landings

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   NS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Yield: 4.02%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ET                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Date: Q4 2018

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          L STR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        RE                                                                                                                             Price: €65,300,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    IE
                                     ES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             T                                                                                                                                                                                      SHERIFF ST                                                     Yield: 4.21%
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                                        TE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Purchaser: Credit Suisse                                          REET UPPE
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LOW
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           HENRY                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Price: €106,500,000
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                                              IEL                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Purchaser: JR AMC
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                                                                             HEUSTON                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         No.1 Dublin Landings                                                            No.1 Dublin Landings
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               R        GES QUAY                                  CITY                                                                                                                                                       Date: Q1 2018
                                                                             STATION                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GE O                                                            QUAY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Date: Q1 2018
                                                                                                                         VICTORIA QUAY                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Type: Development                                                               Yield: 3.94%
                                                                                                                                                                               ARR                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Owner: Triuva                                                                   Price: €165,250,000
                                                                                                                                                                                 AN Q
                                                                                                                                                                      USH             UAY                                                                                                                                                                                                      1 Sir John                                                                    Space Delivered: 143,967 sq ft                                                  Purchaser: Triuva
                                                                                                                                                                               ER’S
                                                                                                                                                                                    QUA                                                                                                   QUAY                                                                                                 Rogerson’s Quay
                                                                                                                                                                                        Y                                                                                        WOOD                                                                                                          Date: Q4 2018
                                       Y   PASS                                                                 31-36 Golden Lane
                                  OD B                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        TRINITY                          Rent: €59.75 psf                                                      GRAND CANAL
                               LIZ
                                                                                                                                                                                            B RI D E S
                                                                                                                Date: Q2 2018
                            APE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               COLLEGE                          Take-up: 113,034 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ENERGY THEATRE
                          H                                                                                     Yield: 5.26%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Tenant: Hubspot
                      C                           1 & 2 HSQ                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DUBLIN
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                                                                                                                Price: €25,500,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sector: TMT
                                                  Date: Q1 2018
                                                  Yield: 4.88%
                                                                                                                Purchaser: KGAL                                                                  TR
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                One Central Plaza                                                                                                                                                                                                5 Hanover Quay
                                                  Price: €176,000,000                                                                                    THOMA                                                                                                  Date: Q2 2018
                                                                                                                                                              S ST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             PEAR                              Date: Q2 2018
SOUTH CIR CULAR

                                                  Purchaser: CK Properties Ltd                                                                                       REE                                                                                        Rent: N/A                                                                                                                                                                           S
                                                                                                                                                                         T                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               E STR                   Type: Development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Take-up: 74,000 sq ft                                                                                                                                                                         EET
                                                                                                                13-14 Aungier Street                                                                                                                  T
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Owner: TIO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         PATRICK STREE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Tenant: WeWork                                                                                                     The Sharp Building                                                                            Space Delivered: 162,783 sq ft
                                                                               EET
                                                                                                                Date: Q4 2018                                                                                                                                   Sector: Coworking                                                                                                  Date: Q3 2018                                                                                                                                      Capital Dock
                                                                           STR                                  Yield: 4.15%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Yield: 4.43%
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Date: Q4 2018
                                                                       M                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GRAFTON

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                                                                   J A                                          Price: €15,000,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Price: €56,300,000

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Type: Development
                                                                                                                Purchaser: Private Irish                                                                                                                                                                              STREET                                                       Purchaser: Credit Suisse                                                                                                                           Owner: Kennedy Wilson
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   KILD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Space Delivered: 339,613 sq ft
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    BUILDINGS                      MERRION                      UN                                   TL                                               The Reflector
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 KEV                                                                                                                                                                               SQUARE                            TS                                OW
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    IN S                                                                                                                                                                                                                      TR                          ER                                          Date: Q4 2018
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ET                                                                                                                                                                                                                       TL                                                                Type: Development
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          UPP                                                                                                                                                                                         OW                                                              Owner: Park Developments
                                                                                                                                                           Three Park Place                                                                                     ER                                                                                                           One Grand Canal Quay                                                           ER                                                        Space Delivered: 123,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ST STEPHEN’S                                           Date: Q3 2018                                                                                            Bolands Quay

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                                                                                                                                                           Date: Q2 2018

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                                                                                                                                                           Rent: N/A                                                                                                                                                                                                         Rent: N/A                                                                                                Date: Q2 2018
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 CUFFE ST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        BATH AVEN

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Take-up: 58,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                            ET             Take-up: 112,000 sq ft                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Rent: Purchase

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                                                                                                                                       RE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Tenant: Google                                                                                           Take-up: 220,732 sq ft
                                                                                                                                    ST                     Tenant: IDA
                                                                                                                               RK                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sector: TMT

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                                                                                                                                                           Sector: State                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tenant: Google
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                                                                                        ROA                                                                Date: Q2 2018
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                                                                                              D                                                            Type: Development                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ON
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                                         LP                                                                                                                Owner: Clancourt Group

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                                                                                                                                                           Space Delivered: 175,000 sq ft                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            HA
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                BER
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           10 Molesworth Street

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ER
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Date: Q1 2018                                              Two Haddington Buildings                                        PEMBR
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   RO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Type: Development                                          Date: Q1 2018                                                             K E RO
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              WER

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Owner: IPUT                                                Yield: 5.40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                AR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       D
                                                                                                         Blocks A-D,Charlemont                                                                                                                                                                                                             Space Delivered: 115,000 sq ft                             Price: €24,000,000
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                                                                                                         Exchange                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Purchaser: Quadoro Doric
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                                                                                                         Date: Q4 2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Facebook Campus
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                                                                                                         Rent: €55.00 psf
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             UE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ST

                                                                                                         Take-up: 120,618 sq ft                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Date: Q4 2018

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                                                                                                         Tenant: WeWork                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Rent: N/A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    AVE
                                                                                                         Sector: Coworking                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Take-up: 870,000 sq ft
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            LE                                                                       Tenant: Facebook

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ES                                                                  Sector: TMT
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Note: All areas and delivery times noted above are approximate estimates only and subject to change

                  4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 5
Investment
                                                                                                                                                         3 OF THE
                                             respectively. Significant transactions
                                             included Spear Street Capital’s
€3.6 billion worth of investment             purchase of the Belfield Office Campus

                                                                                                                                                         TOP 5
transactions changed hands in 2018,          for €90.0 million and the purchase of
60% ahead of the 2017 spend of               One and Two Gateway for €29.0 million
€2.3 billion. Office investment sales
                                             by Yew Grove REIT. These deals were

                                                                                                                                                         DEALS
accounted for the largest proportion of
                                             also emblematic of the increasing
investor activity with 40% of the market
                                             investor appetite to deploy capital in
or €1.5 billion, of which 89% or €1.3
                                             non-core markets where there is greater
billion was concentrated in Dublin.
                                             potential for value-add plays. Looking
The emergence of institutional capital                                                                                                                   were acquired by
                                             ahead to 2019, office investment
from Asia was a key feature of the market                                                                                                                Asian buyers
                                             volumes are likely to remain buoyant
in 2018. Asians accounted for 37% of the
                                             as the pipeline of newly completed and
total spend and were responsible for
                                             let office stock comes to the market
three of the top five acquisitions. This
                                             for sale.
included the largest office transaction of
the year, namely the sale of 1 and 2 HSQ
to Hong Kong based CK Properties Ltd
for €176.0 million.                          FIGURE 7                                                                                                FIGURE 8
The other deals were executed by Korean      Dublin prime office yields                                                                              Buyer and vendor source
money, namely the purchase of No.2
                                                                                                                                                                                US       IRELAND    UK
Dublin Landings for €106.5 million by JR     8%                                                                                                           ASIA       EUROPE

AMC and the acquisition of the Beckett
                                             7%
Building for €101.0 million by Kookmin                                                                                                                               13%
Bank. European buyers were the most                                                                                                                   BUYERS
                                             6%                                                                                                                               2%
active source of capital however,
accounting for 38% of the market spend.      5%
The largest purchase by a European                                                                                                                    12%                          18%
                                             4%
                                                                                                                                                                                             2%
buyer was the sale of No.1 Dublin
                                                                                                                                                                                                   37%
landings to Triuva for €165.3 million.
                                             3%
                                                                                                                                                                     50%             28%
Buyers from Ireland and the United
States accounted for the rest of the         2%                                                                                                                                    VENDORS
market with a 13% and 12% share
                                             1%

                                               0                                                                                                                   38%
                                                   2005
                                                          2006
                                                                 2007
                                                                        2008
                                                                               2009
                                                                                      2010
                                                                                             2011
                                                                                                    2012
                                                                                                           2013
                                                                                                                  2014
                                                                                                                         2015
                                                                                                                                2016
                                                                                                                                       2017
                                                                                                                                              2018

FIGURE 6
Irish commercial investment
volumes € million                            Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                           Source: Knight Frank Research

5,000

                                             Top 5 office investment transactions of 2018
4,000
                                             Property                                                                                  Seller                    Buyer               Approx. price
                                                                                                                                       Northwood
                                              1 and 2 HSQ, Dublin 8                                                                                              CK Properties Ltd        €176.0m
3,000                                                                                                                                  Investors

                                              No.1 Dublin Landings, Dublin 1                                                           Ballymore/Oxley           Triuva                   €165.3m
2,000
                                              Off-market asset swap of
                                                                                                                                       Confidential              Confidential             €160.0m
                                              properties in Dublin 1 and Dublin 2
1,000
                                              No.2 Dublin Landings, Dublin 1                                                           Ballymore/Oxley           JR AMC                   €106.5m

                                                                                                                                       The Comer
    0                                         The Beckett Building, Dublin 3                                                                                     Kookmin Bank             €101.0m
                                                                                                                                       Group
        2006

        2018
        2005

        2007
        2008
        2009
        2010
        2011
        2012
        2013
        2014
        2015
        2016
        2017

Source: Knight Frank Research                Source: Knight Frank Research

6
DUBLIN OFFICE MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 2019                                                                                                                             RESEARCH

SPECIAL FOCUS:
THE TECH SECTOR IN DUBLIN
Last year in our Review and Outlook for 2018, we examined the importance of the tech sector to
Dublin’s office market, with a particular focus on Mega-Cap Tech companies. With their influence
only growing further over the past year, we have decided to revisit our analysis, while also
expanding it to include the next tier of tech firms active in Dublin. We focus our analysis on
central Dublin, where the majority of these firms are located.

MEGA-CAP TECH                                        FIGURE 10
                                                                                                                                                                         Dublin, we are likely to see this projected
                                                                                                                                                                         footprint grow further.
As illustrated in Figure 9, 2018 was                 Growth of Mega-Cap Tech footprint
the strongest year yet for the Mega-                 in Dublin sq ft
Cap Tech firms in Dublin (valuation                   1,200,000                      GOOGLE
                                                                                                                                                                         MID/LARGE-CAP TECH
greater than $200Bn, includes Google,                                                FACEBOOK                                                                            These are tech firms that are publicly
Facebook, Microsoft/LinkedIn and                      1,000,000
                                                                                     MICROSOFT/LINKEDIN                                                                  listed with a market capitalisation of
                                                                                     AMAZON
Amazon with Apple the only absentee)                                                                                                                                     between $2Bn and $200Bn. Typically,
with 1.3 million sq ft of office space                  800,000                                                                                                          they are leaders in their business segment
taken-up, representing a 56% increase                                                                                                                                    and at a relatively mature stage of
on the record setting 2017. Facebook’s                  600,000                                                                                                          development but still experiencing strong
creation of a new 870,000 sq ft campus                                                                                                                                   growth. Salesforce is one such firm.
in Ballsbridge (staggered occupation,                   400,000                                                                                                          Although publicly listed since 2004, its
full project completion due in 2022) was                                                                                                                                 growth has accelerated in recent years
the main driver of this and supported by                200,000                                                                                                          and rose to prominence in Dublin in 2018
Google’s taking of 380,170 sq ft across                                                                                                                                  with the letting of 430,000 sq ft at Spencer
four transactions in 2018. The most high-                      0                                                                                                         Place (agreed in 2018, signed early 2019).
                                                                   Pre 2010
                                                                              2010
                                                                                     2011
                                                                                            2012
                                                                                                   2013
                                                                                                          2014
                                                                                                                 2015
                                                                                                                        2016
                                                                                                                               2017
                                                                                                                                      2018
                                                                                                                                             2019
                                                                                                                                                    2020
                                                                                                                                                           2021
                                                                                                                                                                  2022

profile of these was the forward purchase
                                                                                                                                                                         Hubspot is another firm undergoing fast
of the 220,732 sq ft Bolands Quay on
                                                                                                                                                                         growth in Dublin, most recently taking
Barrow Street (completion due in 2019)               Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                                                         113,000 sq ft at Hibernia REIT’s 1 Sir John
which underlined the long-term strategic
                                                     at the end of 2018 to 3.0 million sq ft by                                                                          Rogerson’s Quay in 2018. This represents
importance of Dublin to the company.
                                                     2022. It includes LinkedIn’s new 152,000                                                                            their latest expansion in Dublin since their
Taking these pre-commitments into                    sq ft office at One Wilton Park which is                                                                            IPO in 2014, adding to their existing holding
account, Figure 10 outlines how the                  being constructed by IPUT with delivery                                                                             of 73,000 sq ft at One and Two Dockland
footprint of these large tech occupiers is set       due for 2020. With Amazon reportedly                                                                                Central. Next door at 1WML, new entrant
to grow from the 2.1 million sq ft occupied          looking at expanding their presence in                                                                              Autodesk took 48,484 sq ft in 2018 while
                                                                                                                                                                         LogMeIn took 40,000 sq ft at The Reflector
                                                                                                                                                                         at Grand Canal Dock. Workday in Smithfield
FIGURE 9
                                                                                                                                                                         remain one of the largest occupiers in
Mega-Cap Tech take-up sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                         Dublin, having taken 170,000 sq ft in 2015.
1,500,000        GOOGLE       FACEBOOK    MICROSOFT/LINKEDIN            AMAZON                                                                                           Meanwhile, Dropbox and Docusign
                                                                                                                                                                         – both of which went public in 2018 –
1,200,000                                                                                                                                                                have bases at One Park Place (83,345
                                                                                                                                                                         sq ft) and Cumberland Place (31,926
                                                                                                                                                                         sq ft) respectively. Start-ups that were
  900,000
                                                                                                                                                                         previously earmarked to go public
                                                                                                                                                                         but were bought by larger companies
  600,000                                                                                                                                                                include Indeed (acquired by Japanese
                                                                                                                                                                         company Recruit in 2012), Jet.com
  300,000                                                                                                                                                                (bought by Walmart in 2016) and most
                                                                                                                                                                         recently Qualtrics (bought by SAP
                                                                                                                                                                         in November 2018 in advance of an
       0
            Pre 2010   2010     2011     2012    2013       2014                     2015                   2016                  2017                     2018          expected IPO). These companies have
Source: Knight Frank Research                                                                                                                                            let 211,393 sq ft at Capital Dock, 30,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       7
sq ft at 40 Molesworth Street and 53,507                                                                     45,000 sq ft at the One Building on Grand                                                                                                                                                                      RESEARCH
sq ft at 1 Clarendon Row/Chatham and                                                                         Canal Street since 2015. Newcomers                                                                                                                                                                             John Ring, Head of Research
King respectively.                                                                                           Coinbase entered the Dublin market in                                                                                                                                                                          +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            john.ring@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                             2018, with the crypto currency exchange
TECH UNICORNS                                                                                                taking 19,000 sq ft at the Exchange in                                                                                                                                                                         Robert O’Connor, Research Analyst
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                             the IFSC. The largest Tech Unicorn in
‘Tech Unicorns’ are start-up companies                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      robert.oconnor@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                             Dublin is Airbnb and they took 40,000
that have a valuation of $1 billion or more.
                                                                                                             sq ft in 2018 at The Reflector in Grand                                                                                                                                                                        CAPITAL MARKETS
Typically, these companies are rapidly
expanding and expected to go public in                                                                       Canal Dock, located next to their EMEA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Adrian Trueick, Director
the coming years. Irish founded Intercom                                                                     HQ which is of a similar size. On a more                                                                                                                                                                       +353 1 634 2466
is one such company and who took                                                                             modest scale, other companies that have                                                                                                                                                                        adrian.trueick@ie.knightfrank.com
15,145 sq ft at Stephen Court last year,                                                                     taken space in 2018 include Asana, who                                                                                                                                                                         Peter Flanagan, Director
adding to the 50,000 sq ft they took in                                                                      took 5,200 sq ft at the newly completed                                                                                                                                                                        +353 1 634 2466
the same building in 2016. Another Irish                                                                     Three Park Place. They join fellow Unicorn                                                                                                                                                                     peter.flanagan@ie.knightfrank.com
company, Stripe, are the largest Fintech                                                                     Slack who took 29,222 sq ft at One Park                                                                                                                                                                        Ross Fogarty, Director
Unicorn in the world and have occupied                                                                       Place in 2016.                                                                                                                                                                                                 +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ross.fogarty@ie.knightfrank.com

Large/Mid-Cap & Unicorn tech firms in central Dublin                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        OFFICES
Arranged by market capitalisation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Declan O’Reilly, Director
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            +353 1 634 2466
 Size                                                          Company                Primary                                 Market cap/                     Approx. space                                                                                                                                                 declan.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                      business line                          est. value (Bn)*               occupied in Dublin
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Paul Hanly, Director
                                                                                                                                                               150,000 sq ft,
 Large-Cap                                                     Salesforce             CRM                                                     €91.5           commmitted to                                                                                                                                                 +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                           430,000 sq ft by 2021                                                                                                                                            paul.hanly@ie.knightfrank.com
 Large-Cap                                                     Workday                Enterprise resource planning                            €30.7                       170,000 sq ft                                                                                                                                     Jim O’Reilly, Director
 Large-Cap                                                     Autodesk               3D design software                                      €24.6                                  48,000 sq ft                                                                                                                           +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            jim.oreilly@ie.knightfrank.com
 Large-Cap                                                     Twitter                Social media                                            €19.1                                  85,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Gavin Maguire, Associate Director
 Mid-Cap                                                       Dropbox                Cloud storage                                            €7.3                                  83,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            +353 1 634 2466
 Mid-Cap                                                       Docusign               Cybersecurity                                            €5.8                                  32,000 sq ft                                                                                                                           gavin.maguire@ie.knightfrank.com
 Mid-Cap                                                       Zalando                E-commerce                                               €5.7                                  19,000 sq ft                                                                                                                           Mark Headon, Associate Director
 Mid-Cap                                                       Zendesk                Customer service                                         €5.5                                  58,000 sq ft                                                                                                                           +353 1 634 2466
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            mark.headon@ie.knightfrank.com
 Mid-Cap                                                       Hubspot                Inbound marketing                                        €4.3                       186,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            David Reddy, Associate Director
 Mid-Cap                                                       LogMeIn                Remote access work                                       €3.6                                  40,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            +353 1 634 2466
 Former Unicorn                                                Indeed                 Jobs portal                                               n/a                       211,000 sq ft                                                                                                                                     david.reddy@ie.knightfrank.com
                                                                                                                                                          27,000 sq ft, committed
 Former Unicorn                                                Qualtrics              Surveying                                                 n/a
                                                                                                                                                          to 54,000 sq ft by 2020
 Former Unicorn                                                Jet.com                E-commerce                                                n/a                                  30,000 sq ft
 Unicorn                                                       Airbnb                 Rental accomodation                                     €25.5                                  78,000 sq ft
 Unicorn                                                       Stripe                 Fintech                                                 €17.7                                  45,000 sq ft
 Unicorn                                                       Coinbase               Fintech                                                  €7.0                                  19,000 sq ft
 Unicorn                                                       Slack                  Work messenger                                           €6.2                                  29,000 sq ft
 Unicorn                                                       Asana                  Project management                                       €1.3                                          5,000 sq ft
 Unicorn                                                       Intercom               Customer messaging                                       €1.1                                  65,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          © HT Meagher O’Reilly trading as Knight Frank
*Source: Publically listed values from YCharts as at 31/12/2018. Unicorn valuations from CB Insights, January 2019                                                                                                                                                                                                        This report is published for general information only and not to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or
RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               liability whatsoever can be accepted by HT Meagher O’Reilly
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          trading as Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents
                                                                           RESEARCH                           INVESTMENT INSIGHT                             RESEARCH
                                                                                                                                                             DUBLIN INDUSTRIAL MARKET
                                                                                                                                                             2018 IN REVIEW

                                                                           THE DUBLIN                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     of this document. As a general report, this material does
                                                                                                                                                             2018 was another strong year
                                                                                                                                                             for Dublin’s industrial market as
                                                                                                                                                             295,480 sq m of space transacted,

                                                                           PRS REPORT
                                                                                                                                                             representing a 17% increase on
                                                                                                                                                             the 252,452 sq m taken in 2017.
                                                                                                                                                             Manufacturing activity continued to

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          not necessarily represent the view of HT Meagher O’Reilly
                                                                                                                                                             expand, although at a slower pace,
                                                                                                                                                             with the Investec Manufacturing
                                                                                                                                                             Purchasing Manager’s Index reading
                                                                                                                                                             54.5 at the end of 2018 compared
                                                                                                                                                             to 59.1 a year earlier. Interestingly,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          trading as Knight Frank in relation to particular properties
                                                                                                                                                             according to a survey by Eurostat,
                                                                                                                                                             Ireland has been ranked the
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Units A & B Mountpark Baldonnell, Dublin 22
                                                                                                                                                             highest in Europe for the number
                                                                                                                                                             of enterprises making online sales
                                                                                                                                                             for a fourth consecutive year. The         FIGURE 2                                       FIGURE 3
                                                                                                                                                             importance of online retailing is          Take-up by location, 2018                      Take-up by deal size, 2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part
                                                                                                                                                             increasingly challenging existing
                                                                                                                                                             supply chain networks, and by
                                                                                                                                                                                                               6%                                                                       6%
                                                                                                                                                             extension, shaking-up the structure               NORTH-EAST
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