E-MOBILITÄT: DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL - IHK Aachen

 
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E-MOBILITÄT: DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL - IHK Aachen
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

„E-Mobilität aus der Region Aachen“

Prepared for                                                                                                      E-MOBILITÄT:
IHK Aachen                                               DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL

Aachen, April 12th 2018
Rüdiger Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH

                                                                © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties
E-MOBILITÄT: DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL - IHK Aachen
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

Agenda

 Introduction

 Drivers and challenges towards an electrified future of mobility

 FEV powertrain topology forecast 2030

 Influence on automakers and suppliers

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                             © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 2
E-MOBILITÄT: DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL - IHK Aachen
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

NEW YORK CITY (FIFTH AVENUE), EASTER 1900: CARS ARE THE EXCEPTION

                                                                            „If I had asked
                                                                            people what they
                                                                            wanted, they would
                                                                            have answered
                                                                            ‘faster horses’.“
                                                                            Henry Ford

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                      © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 3
E-MOBILITÄT: DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL - IHK Aachen
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

NEW YORK CITY (FIFTH AVENUE), EASTER 1913 – ONLY 13 YEARS LATER!

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                       © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 4
E-MOBILITÄT: DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL - IHK Aachen
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

E-mobility has reached its „Tipping Point“, most automotive OEMs have
announced to accelerate on the development of their electric models

                                  „We will introduce more than 30                      „Until 2022 we will bring more than
                                  additional pure electric vehicles                    ten new electric vehicles into series
                                  into the market until 2025.“                         production: from smart up to SUV.“

                                  Matthias Müller, VW,                                 Dieter Zetsche, Daimler,
                                  March 2017                                           March 2017

                                  “Already in 2020 it could be that                    „In 2025, 15 to 25 percent of our
                                  we sell 40 to 50 percent of our                      sales should be electric and plug-
                                  vehicles as pure electric or hybrid“                 in hybrid vehicles.“

                                  Ralph Speth, Jaguar Land Rover,                      Harald Krüger, BMW,
                                  March 2017                                           March 2017

                                  “Increase production until 2018 to                   „We are confident that by 2020,
                                  500,000 and until 2020 to one                        10 percent of Volvo’s global sales
                                  million vehicles per year.“                          will be electrified cars.“

                                  Elon Musk, Tesla Motors,                             Håkan Samuelsson, Volvo Cars,
                                  January 2017                                         May 2017

Source: Press releases of shown OEMs

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 5
Your engineering partner worldwide

                                                                           Independent engineering company

                                                                           Supporting engineering
                                                                                developments from innovations up
                                                                                to SOP

                                                                           Optimizing customers products
                                                                                and processes

                                                                           ~530 M€ revenue in 2017

                                                                           Close to our customers:
                                                                                                                           subsidiaries on
                                                                                               40+                         four continents

                                                                                                                   test cells for engines,

                                                                                        200+                   transmissions, drivelines,
                                                                                                                   e-machines, batteries

                                      Subsidiary   Headquarter            5000+                                                 employees
                                                                                                                                  globally

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                         © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 6
A partner you can trust

PORTFOLIO OF SERVICES – ORGANIZATION BY BUSINESS UNITS

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 7
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

FEV Europe GmbH history of development activities
Electrification
                                                                                                                                                                  Axle-split
                                                                                                                                                                  PHEV with
                                                                                                                                                                                      Dedicated Hybrid
GROWING GLOBALLY IN FAST PACE ESPECIALLY THE LAST 20 YEARS                                                                                                        torque
                                                                                                                                                                  vectoring
                                                                                                                                                                                      Transmission demo
                                                                                                                                                                                      car on the road

                                                                                                                                                                                      48V eCharger demo
                                           First fuel cell demo car                                                              Fleet of FEV BEV on the                              car on the road
                                           on the road (HyPower),                                                                road equipped with FEV
     Start of hybrid
                                           Test drive at Simplon                               Start of Li-Ion Battery           battery, BMS, electric
     benchmarking programm                                                                                                                                                             Tesla S benchmark
                                           Pass Switzerland                                    and BMS development               powertrain control unit, IKT
                                                                 Start of FEV Hybrid                                                                              SOP of Powertrain
                                                                 Control Unit Development                                                                         Controll Unit SW for BEV
                                                                                                                                                  P2-Hybrid SOP
                                                                                                           First off-road
                     Start of FEV hybrid
                                                                                                           hybrid powertrain
                     system simulation tool                                                                                                                                     Liquid cooled
                                                                                                                                                                                high performance
                                                               First FEV hybrid demo car                                                               Next Generation          battery design
                                                               on the road equipped with                               Start of eHorizon               P2-Hybrid SOP
                                                                                                                       Development                                                             SOP of next
                                                               Supercaps
                                                                                                                                                          First SOP of eHorizon                Generation P2-Hybrid
                                                                                                                                                                                               with ePGS

1998      1999     2000      2001       2002       2003       2004      2005       2006       2007         2008      2009        2010      2011       2012        2013      2014      2015       2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                 first SOP of FEV
                                                                                                    First battery                           FEV EESY battery design,                             battery and BMS SW
                                                                                                    test bench in                           combined battery with
                                                                                                    operation                               high power and high                              Fuel Cell range extender
                                                                                     First mass                                             energy modules                                   vehicle on the road
          Start of fuel cell                        Start of hybrid
                                                                                     production intended
          system development                        system development                                                                                                      SOP of BEV and PHEV
                                                                                     Diesel hybrid
                                                                                                                           First SOPs of hybrid
                                                                                                                           vehicles in Europe
                                                                          Start of first mass production                   and Asia
                                                                                                                                                                                      Microhybrid
                                                                          intended hybrid projects
                                                                                                                                                                                      demo car on
                                                                                                            First FEV BEV on the road                      V2 range extender          the road
                                                                                                            equipped with FEV battery,                     for BEV (best in class
                                                                                                            BMS, electric powertrain                       NVH behaviour)
                                                                                                            control unit, range extender

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                                                                           © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 8
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

Agenda

 Introduction

 Drivers and challenges towards an electrified future of mobility

 FEV powertrain topology forecast 2030

 Influence on automakers and suppliers

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                             © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 9
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

Different factors drive the shift towards an electrified future;
automakers and suppliers will have to adapt their business models

FACTORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON E-MOBILITY

     More stringent CO2 fleet targets                                                                                   Currently hesitating
     Tightening emission targets                                                                                        Purchase barriers being reduced
     Local access limitations                                                                                            (infrastructure, additional costs)
     Promotion of e-mobility (e.g.                            Political-                                                Increasing experience and
      purchase incentives, tax bene-                           regulatory           Consumer                              recommendation of e-mobility
      fits, privileges in road traffic)                        environment           behavior                            New mobility concepts will
                                                                                                                          change consumer behavior
                                                         Investment
                                                         and
     Increasing invest in e-mobility by                                                      Future
                                                         financing
      governments and OEMs                                                              strategies of
                                                         pattern       E-Mobility
     Decreasing invest for                                                                    OEMS
      conventional powertrains                                                                                            Almost all OEMs expand their
     Reluctance in terms of financing                                                                                     number of electric vehicle models
                                                                      Technology
      conventional technology                                         development                                         Differentiation from competitors
                                                                                                                          Opportunities for new players
                                                                                                                          Development of new business
                      Range increase and cost reduction                                                                   models necessary
                       with next generation batteries
                      Fast charging makes usage attractive
                      ADAS fosters e-business models

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                                          © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 10
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

All major automotive markets are heavily investing in charging infra-
structure with China taking the lead; still significant investments required

                                                                                                                                             # TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
PUBLIC CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

                                                                                                                                                          +117.0%           141k
                                                                                       +63.7%        111k
 Status quo

                              +33.7%                                                     69k                                                                  59k
                                32k        40k                               41k                                                               30k
                   23k

                  2014         2015        2016                             2014        2015        2016                                      2014           2015          2016

                   No major US subsidy                                     Subsidy programs support                                         China severely invests in
                    programs for charging                                    the extension of European                                         public charging
                    infrastructure                                           charging infrastructure                                           infrastructure
 Outlook

                                                                            Target for 2020*: 650,000                                        China announced to install
                   Large potential for
                                                                             (Projection for 2020 is                                           4.8 m charging stations by
                    charging stations at
                                                                             based on country specific                                         2020 (incl. private
                    shopping centers and
                                                                             sales targets)                                                    households) to meet
                    malls
                                                                                                                                               ambitious BEV targets
*2020 projection based on individual targets of Germany, England, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Austria
                                                                                                                           Publicly accessible slow & fast chargers
Source: ReportsnReports, European Alternative Fuels Observatory EAFO 2017, International Energy Agency, AHK/VDI/VDE/IT, FEV

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                                                    © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 11
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

The decrease of battery costs is major enabler for an increased market
relevance for electrified and electric vehicles

                                                                                                                                         # TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
FEV BATTERY COST FORECAST (LARGE VOLUME SCENARIO)
                      Cell costs                                        Pack costs                                                  Key assumptions
400                                                      400
                       in €/kWh                                          in €/kWh                                                                       EV                 PHEV
                                                                360
350                                                      350                                                                                      Li-Ion
                                           PHEV                                            PHEV                 Battery
                                                                                                                                            After 2025:                     Li-Ion
                                                                                                                technology*
                                             EV                                               EV                                       solid state, Li-S
300                                                      300
                                External studies /                                External studies /                                         2015: 200               2015:     150
                             x publications (EV)                              x publications (EV)               Cell energy
                                                               255                                                                           2020: 250               2020:     200
                                                                                                                density
250                                                      250                                                                                 2025: 300               2025:     230
                                                                            225                                 [Wh/kg]
                                                                                                                                             2030: >400              2030:     250
         200
200                                                      200                                                    c rate**                              1–3                   5 – 10
                                                                                        165
                                                                                                    150         Typical battery
                                                                                                                                           60 – 80 kWh             10 – 15 kWh
150                    140                               150                                                    capacity
        170                            110                            155
                                                   100                                                          Cost factor:
                                                                                                                                               2015:    1.5           2015:     1.8
100                                                      100                                                                                   2020:    1.4           2020:     1.6
               110                                                                                              pack to cell
                                                                                  105                                                          2025:    1.3           2025:     1.5
                                                                                                   90           costs***
                                                                                                                                               2030:    1.3           2030:     1.5
                                80
 50                                           70          50                                                    * Costs apply to prismatic, pouch, cylindrical cells
                                                                                                                                                PowereMotor [kW]
                                                                                                                ** c rate (discharge) =
   0                                                       0                                                                                   Capacitybattery [kWh]
   2015            2020           2025            2030     2015        2020        2025            2030         *** battery pack costs include battery cooling,
                                                                                                                housing and battery management system
Source: FEV

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                                                © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 12
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

Agenda

 Introduction

 Drivers and challenges towards an electrified future of mobility

 FEV powertrain topology forecast 2030

 Influence on automakers and suppliers

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                             © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 13
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

CO2 emission of new vehicle registrations in EU market are at 118 g/km in
2016, reduction of 20% has to be achieved to realize the target for 2021

FLEET-AVERAGE PASSENGER CAR CO2-EMISSION BY AUTOMAKER1 IN EUROPE
                           180
                                                                                                                               CY 2016 provisional data

                           160
    CO2 emission in g/km

                           140                                             KIA
                                                                                                                                                 JLR
                           120

                           100
                                 -26%                                         AVERAGE
                            80   -21%

                            60   -16%

                            40
                             1.000   1.100    1.200          1.300    1.400    1.500    1.600        1.700             1.800             1.900             2.000
1considering
2new
             manufacturer pooling;
     provision expected as WLTP will be applied after 2021
                                                                     Average fleet weight in kg
Source: EEA (provisional EU-28 data for 2016); FEV

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                                   © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 14
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

To achieve upcoming fuel economy targets automakers have to evaluate
different powertrain types based on their CO2 benefit and market potential

TRADE-OFF BETWEEN POWERTRAIN TYPES
     CO2 emission in g/km

                     Stop/
     Base1                                 90
                      start
                                                                      # MHEV EQUIVALENT
                                                                                                           8% CO2 reduction is
                   MHEV                                     -8%                                            considered 1 “MHEV
                                           83
                    48V                                                                                    equivalent (ME)”
                                                                      MHEV         MHEV

Powertrain
  type
 options                                                                                                  “By selling 2.5 MHEVs an OEM
                      HEV              72                  -20%                                           can spare sale of 1 HEV to
                                                                      HEV          MHEV                   achieve equal average CO2”

                                                                                                          “By selling 9 MHEVs an OEM
                                                                                                          can spare sale of 1 PHEV to
                   PHEV2         27                        -70%                                           achieve equal average CO2”
                                                                      PHEV         MHEV
1:
 Compact Car segment; 2: 50km electric range, 9kWh battery capacity
Source: FEV

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                         © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 15
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

For the European market FEV expects a major shift towards plug-vehicles,
the final distribution will mainly depend on customer preferences

FUTURE POWERTRAIN SCENARIOS PASSENGER CAR
                        FEV Scenario – most likely                                 Scenario 1: “BEV break-through”                        Scenario 2: “PHEV”

100%                                                         4%                                      5%                                                    5%
            18%
                                                                                                                92%
  80%                                         39%                    93%                                        electrified                                           90%
                                                            51%      electrified                                drives                                   46%          electrified
                                                                     drives                          56%                                                              drives
  60%                     84%                                          84%                                       84%
           78%
                                              33%                                                                                                          8%
  40%                                                        7%                                      2%
                                                                                                     7%                                                   24%
                                                            13%
                                               3%
  20%                                         13%                                                    26%
                          5%                                 21%      22%                                        27%                                      10%
                       2% 2%                                          5%                                         5%                                                      13%
        2%                                    10%                     w/o
                                                                      2%  ICE                                    w/o
                                                                                                                 2%  ICE
                                                                      2%                                         2%                                       3%             w/o ICE
                       3%                                  3% 1%      3%                              1%         3%
                                                                                                                 0%
    0% 2%                                      3%                                               3%                                                      5%
      2016                2020                2025            2030                   2025              2030                          2025                    2030

CO2 fleet
emission:
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

Agenda

 Introduction

 Drivers and challenges towards an electrified future of mobility

 FEV powertrain topology forecast 2030

 Influence on automakers and suppliers

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                             © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 17
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

Approx. 1,400 conventional powertrain components with a whole vehicle
value share of ~30% will be replaced by new e-components

CHALLENGES FOR THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

                               red = omitted; blue = modified for fully electric drive

Source: Auto Bild Dauertest, FEV

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                                 © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 18
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

The powertrain of fully electric vehicles will be much less complex –
ICE components will completely be omitted

Modification / changes within
the powertrain in the                                    CONVENTIONAL                HYBRID                                   FULLY ELECTRIC
upcoming years until
2025/2030

Base engine
(Crankcase, cylinder head, crankshaft,                   Modified / Downsized   Modified / Downsized                                     n/a
connecting rod, camshaft, valves, etc.)
Fuel system
(Injectors, fuel pump, rails, fuel tank system,                Modified               Modified                                           n/a
hoses, filters, etc.)
Boosting and exhaust system
(Turbocharger, exhaust manifold, catalysts,                    Modified               Modified                                           n/a
filters, sensors, exhaust pipe system, etc.)
Starter and generator                                          Modified               Modified                                           n/a
Transmission, clutch                                           Modified               Modified                                     Modified / n/a
Cooling fan, water pump, air conditioning, etc.                Modified               Modified                                        Modified
Electric motor                                                    -                    New                                              New
Battery system                                                    -                    New                                              New
Power electronics                                                 -                    New                                              New

Source: FEV

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                               © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 19
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

Automakers maintain their contribution in E-powertrains when entering the
battery business; mechanical part suppliers are highly challenged

CONTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENT MARKET PLAYERS TO MILD HYBRID AND ELECTRIC POWERTRAINS

        2027 48 V mild hybrid                             2027 base BEV                                             BEV vs. 48 V MHEV
          (powertrain only)                              (powertrain only)                                      (value chain transformation)

                                                                                                               OEM                 -3%
                   12%
              3%                                         26%           29%                              Supplier
                                     32%                                                                                         -45%
                                                                                          (mech. parts, others)
                      EUR                                      EUR
                      5,072                                    5,231                                    Supplier                +33%
                                                                                                            (battery)
                                                                         9%
                54%                                                                                     Supplier                +14%
                                                            36%               (E-motor, PWT electronics & E/E)

       OEM
       Supplier (mechanical parts, others)
       Supplier (battery)
       Supplier (E-motor, PWT electronics & E/E)

Source: FEV

R. Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH, April 2018                                                © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties | 20
„Mobilität made in der Region Aachen: Sind Sie dabei?“

„E-Mobilität aus der Region Aachen“

Prepared for                                                                                                      E-MOBILITÄT:
IHK Aachen                                               DER ANTRIEB IM TECHNOLOGISCHEN WANDEL

Aachen, April 12th 2018
Rüdiger Beykirch, FEV Europe GmbH

                                                                © by FEV – all rights reserved. Confidential – no passing on to third parties
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