Ecosystem Science Capabilities Required to Support NOAA's Mission in the Year 2020
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Ecosystem Science Capabilities Required to Support NOAA’s Mission in the Year 2020 S. A. Murawski and G. C. Matlock (editors) U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Marine Fisheries Service – National Ocean Service NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-F/SPO-74 July 2006
Ecosystem Science Capabilities Required to Support NOAA’s Mission in the Year 2020 S. A. Murawski and G. C. Matlock (editors) NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-F/SPO-74 July 2006 U.S. Department of Commerce Carlos M. Gutierrez, Secretary National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., USN (Ret.) Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere National Marine Fisheries Service Dr. William T. Hogarth, Assistant Administrator for Fisheries National Ocean Service John H. Dunnigan – Assistant Administrator for Ocean Service
Suggested Citations: Murawski, S.A., and G.C. Matlock (editors). 2006. Ecosystem Science Capabilities Required to Support NOAA’s Mission in the Year 2020. U.S. Dep. Commerce, NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-F/SPO-74, 97 p. Individual sections: Carter, G., P. Restrepo, J. Hameedi, P. Ortner, C. Sellinger, J. Stein, and T. Beechie, 2006. Freshwater Issues. pp. 29-39. In: S.A. Murawski and G.C. Matlock (editors). Ecosystem Science Capabilities Required to Support NOAA’s Mission in the Year 2020. U.S. Dep. Commerce, NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-F/SPO-74, 97 p. A copy of the report may be obtained from: National Marine Fisheries Service Office of Science and Technology 1315 East-West Highway, 12th Floor Silver Spring, Maryland 20910 or National Ocean Service National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science 1305 East West Highway, Room 8110 Silver Spring, Maryland 20910 Or Online at: http://spo.nmfs.noaa.gov/tm/
Overview: Commission on Ocean Policy’s report
Ecosystem Science Capabilities (USCOP, 2004), and the
Administration’s response to that report
Required to Support NOAA’s
in the U.S. Ocean Action Plan (CEQ,
Mission in the Year 2020 2004).
Acting through its Ecosystem Goal
The mission of the National Oceanic and Team (http://.ecosystems.noaa.gov),
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is NOAA has begun to better integrate the
to understand and predict changes in the ecological research, observing, and
Earth’s environment and conserve and forecasting components undertaken by
manage coastal and marine resources to its “line offices” (i.e., NOAA Fisheries,
meet our nation’s economic, social and NOAA National Ocean Service, NOAA
environmental needs (NOAA, 2004). In Research, NOAA Satellites and
meeting its marine stewardship Information Service, and NOAA
responsibilities, NOAA seeks to ensure National Weather Service). NOAA’s
the sustainable use of resources and five-year research plan (NOAA, 2005b)
balance competing uses of coastal and emphasizes how the agency will better
marine ecosystems, recognizing both integrate its current activities, using the
their human and natural components Goal Team structure as a framework. In
(NOAA, 2004). Authorities for contrast, its 20-year vision for science
executing these responsibilities come and research encompasses broad themes
from over 90 separate pieces of Federal for the agency in meeting its ecosystem
legislation, each with unique stewardship responsibilities, as “NOAA
requirements and responsibilities. Few will provide the scientific underpinnings
of these laws explicitly mandate an for an ecosystem approach to
ecosystem approach to management management of coastal and ocean
(EAM) or supporting science. However, resources, so that complex societal
resource managers, the science choices are informed by comprehensive
community, and increasingly, the public, and reliable scientific information”
are recognizing that significantly greater (NOAA, 2005c, p. 6).
connectedness among the scientific
disciplines is needed to support The agency needs to know what types of
management and stewardship science, skills, and products will be
responsibilities (Browman and Stergiou, necessary to inform emerging ecosystem
2004; 2005). Neither NOAA nor any management challenges if it is to move
other science agency can meet the from simply better integrating its current
increasing demand for ecosystem activities to meeting its strategic 20-year
science products addressing each of its research vision. This document was
mandates individually. Even if it was developed to identify a strategic
possible, doing so would not provide the portfolio of research, monitoring, data
integration necessary to solve the integration, and decision support
increasingly complex array of capabilities underpinning more holistic
management issues. This focus on the approaches to NOAA’s stewardship and
integration of science and management management of coastal and ocean
responsibilities into an ecosystem view resources.
is one of the centerpieces of the U.S.
For purposes of this discussion Ecosystem science supporting these
concerning the scientific support characteristics must therefore be
necessary for an EAM, NOAA defines integrated on appropriate geographic
an EAM as: scales relevant to the particular problem
or issue being addressed. Some of these
An ecosystem1 approach to management management foci will be local (e.g., a
(EAM) is one that provides a bay or estuary), while many others will
comprehensive framework for living scale upwards, including a global scale.
resource decision making. In contrast to All will require greater integration of
individual species or single issue ecosystem knowledge across traditional
management, EAM considers a wider disciplines that can be easily
range of relevant ecological, reassembled at problem-relevant time
environmental, and human factors and space scales. Given the wider
bearing on societal choices regarding diversity of stakeholder groups that will
resource use. participate in ecosystem-level problem
solving, new information products -
EAM is differentiated from more including those that integrate and
narrowly focused management by a simultaneously interpret biological,
number of defining characteristics. social, and physical trends - must
EAM is: (1) geographically specified, (2) emerge. Finally, new management
adaptive in its development over time as (governance) institutions will also likely
new information becomes available or evolve from those currently in existence
as circumstances change, (3) takes into or yet to be formed, and will require the
account ecosystem knowledge and use of natural and social science
uncertainties, (4) considers the fact that information to inform difficult, but
multiple simultaneous factors may necessary, coastal and ocean ecosystem
influence the outcomes of management management decisions. One of the
(particularly those external to the vexing issues these institutions will face
ecosystem), and (5) strives to balance is the divergent value systems held by
diverse societal objectives that result stakeholder groups (e.g., utilitarian
from resource decision making and versus preservation views of marine
allocation. Additionally, because of its ecosystems). U.S. institutions and
complexity and emphasis on stakeholder science support systems must be
involvement, the process of prepared to evaluate management from
implementing EAM needs to be (6) these diverse perspectives.
incremental and (7) collaborative
(Murawski, 2006, pp. 1-2). This set of “white papers” is not
intended to be comprehensive with
1 respect to all of the existing and
An ecosystem is a geographically specified
system of organisms (including humans), the emerging issues, but rather, focuses on a
environment2, and the processes that control its few priority topics that researchers and
dynamics. coastal managers have identified as
2
multidisciplinary themes of EAM
The environment is the biological, chemical, requiring NOAA’s attention. These
physical, and social conditions that surround
organisms. When appropriate, the term themes were assigned to NOAA senior
environment should be qualified as biological, scientists and research managers who are
chemical, and/or social.
2
at the forefront of these issues, and who with other sectors and issues. In fact,
represent a cross-section of the various there is a growing demand from these
line offices within the agency current institutions for ecosystem-level
collaborating on them. This examination information and advice for which
of pivotal issues will help NOAA, its science is not yet fully equipped to
partners, and its stakeholders more fully provide (Rice, 2005). Thus, there is an
implement an EAM. It will contribute to urgent need to address these issues and
how NOAA organizes itself and priorities.
manages its activities, and how it will
interact with other Federal, state, and Finally, this exercise in futurism is not
local management organizations. Most the first, and will not be the last, to
importantly, these papers will inform consider emerging marine science and
long-term research planning activities of policy “mega-trends.” In 1984, the
the agency. Intergovernmental Oceanographic
Commission posited a vision of
The six white papers consider the emerging themes by the year 2000 (IOC,
following ecosystem-related themes: 1984). Chief among their predictions
were the increased importance of
Page interdisciplinary approaches to climate
1. Ecosystem Responses to research and ecosystem studies (Field et
Climate Variability………………… 6 al., 2005). More recently, in visioning
ocean science for 2020, Field et al.
2. Management of Living Marine (2005) provide a number of tantalizing
Resources in an Ecosystem predictions for science and management
Context………………………..…… 15 challenges for which science must
prepare, including: (1) the increased
3. Freshwater Issues…………….… 29 reliance on more capable remote
sensing, (2) the importance of the
4. Marine Zoning and Coastal Zone information revolution to ocean science,
Management……………………….. 40 (3) the “globalization” of modeling
capacity, (4) discovering functional
5. Ecological Forecasting…………. 52 biodiversity (molecular ecology), (5)
increased emphasis on global climate
6. Science Requirements to Identify change, (6) waste disposal in the oceans,
and Balance Societal Objectives…... 64 (6) understanding of the deep sea floor
biosphere, (8) the emerging importance
Of course, better science capabilities of the land-sea interface and the coasts,
alone will not be sufficient to meet the (9) the growth of interdisciplinary
increasing challenges in managing the sciences, (10) greater involvement of
Nation’s coastal and ocean ecosystems. society in managing the ocean’s limited
However, ocean governance systems resources, (11) transitioning to
have not been static. Even within sustainable fisheries, and (12) capacity
traditional use sectors (e.g., fisheries, building in marine science in both the
energy exploration and recovery), there developing and developed world. This
is an evolution towards broadening volume provides a NOAA-centric view
mandates to consider their interactions of important challenges for ecosystem
3management and the role that its science The authors acknowledge and appreciate
can play in informing and helping to the efforts of the numerous individuals
create a sustainable future for our who reviewed these white papers, and
Nation’s ocean and coastal ecosystems. particularly those of Ms. Lynn Dancy.
4Acronyms HAB harmful algal bloom
IOOS Integrated Ocean Observing
ABC acceptable biological catch System
AIS aquatic invasive species LMR living marine resource
ARO NOAA Fisheries’ Alaska MERHAB NOAA’s Monitoring and
Regional Office Event Response for Harmful
Bmsy stock biomass necessary to Algal Blooms Program
support MSY MPA marine protected area
CCSP U.S. Climate Change Science MSE management strategy evaluation
Program MSFCMA Magnuson-Stevens Fishery
CFM coastal flooding model Conservation and
CHPS Community Hydrologic Management Act
Prediction System MSY maximum sustainable yield
CZM coastal zone management NASA National Aeronautics and Space
EAM ecosystem approach to Administration
management NEXRAD Next Generation Radar
ECOHAB NOAA’s Ecology and NOAA National Oceanic and
Oceanography of Harmful Algal Atmospheric Administration
Blooms Program NGO non-governmental organization
EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone NMSP NOAA’s National Marine
EFH essential fish habitat Sanctuary Program
ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation NPCREP North Pacific Climate
EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Regimes and Ecosystem
Agency Productivity
ESA Endangered Species Act NPFMC North Pacific Fishery
ESU evolutionary significant unit Management Council
FAO Food and Agriculture OFL overfishing level
Organization of the United PBA NOAA program baseline
Nations assessment
Flim threshold maximum fishing PPBES NOAA’s Program Planning
mortality limit Budgeting and Execution
Fmsy fishing mortality rate associated System
with MSY SAFE Stock Assessment and Fishery
FMP fishery management plan Evaluation
FY fiscal year SIMOR Subcommittee on Integrated
GEOSS Global Earth Observing System Management of Ocean
of Systems Resources
GIS geographical information system TAC total allowable catch
GLOBEC U.S. Global Ocean
Ecosystems Dynamics
5White Paper #1 consequence of global warming and
subsidence, sea levels continue to rise
and the rate of rise is projected to
Ecosystem Responses
accelerate. Precipitation and resulting
to Climate Variability rates of runoff are predicted to change
significantly over the next century.
These variations and changes in
Authors: environmental conditions have profound
Kenric Osgood, NOAA Fisheries, implications for ecosystems and the
Office of Science and Technology human activities that are dependent on
Ned Cyr, NOAA Fisheries, Office of them by changing the distributions and
Science and Technology productivity of living resources.
Tom O’Connor, NOAA National
Ocean Service, National Centers for Climate changes potentially have large
Coastal Ocean Science impacts on living marine resource
Jeff Polovina, NOAA Fisheries, Pacific (LMR) populations including the Great
Islands Science Center Lakes (McGinn, 2002). Along the U.S.
David Schwab, NOAA Research, Great west coast, El Niño events cause shifts in
Lakes Environmental Research population distributions of many marine
Laboratory species and greatly impact ocean
Phyllis Stabeno, NOAA Research, productivity (Pearcy and Schoener,
Pacific Marine Environmental 1987), while decadal scale climate shifts
Laboratory impact the structure and productivity of
North Pacific and Bering Sea
ecosystems (Hollowed and Wooster,
I. Description of the Issue 1992; Hare and Mantua, 2000; Peterson
and Schwing, 2003). Shifts such as the
Background change from shrimp to groundfish
dominance in the Gulf of Alaska in the
Variations in the world’s climate have late 1970s reflect decadal changes in
significant implications for the ocean climate (Anderson and Piatt,
productivity and structure of marine and 1999), as do large shifts in Pacific
coastal (including Great Lakes) salmon production (Mantua et al., 1997).
ecosystems ranging from the tropics to The Bering Sea is undergoing a
the poles. Climate-driven variability of northward biogeographical shift in
environmental conditions is manifest on response to changing temperature and
many time and space scales, including atmospheric forcing (Overland and
year-to-year variation, multi-year (e.g., Stabeno, 2004; Grebmeier et al., 2006),
El Niño-Southern Oscillation [ENSO]), and in the North Atlantic many marine
and decadal scales (e.g., Pacific Decadal fish species have been observed to shift
Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, their distributions poleward in response
and Arctic Oscillation). In addition to to increases in water temperature
this shorter-term variability, the Earth’s (Murawski, 1993; Parker and Dixon,
climate system has demonstrably 1998; Perry et al., 2005). Long-term
warmed on both global and regional declines in krill stocks have been
scales since the pre-industrial era, observed in the Southern Ocean and
impacting ice extent (IPCC, 2001). As a
6links between annual krill density and occurs each summer over the northern
sea-ice cover have been established Gulf of Mexico shelf may increase in
(Atkinson et al., 2004). Similarly, in the size and intensity if runoff from the
Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean, reductions central U.S. increases (Justic et al.,
in sea ice coverage have negative 2003). Rising temperatures have
implications for ice dependent species, implications for the productivity and
but positive implications for other viability of coral reef ecosystems as
species that may be able to take mass coral bleaching has occurred in
advantage of the changing conditions, association with episodes of elevated sea
thus having consequences that cascade temperatures (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999).
through the food webs (ACIA, 2004). Coral reefs, and other calcifying marine
Changed climate forcing affects organisms including important plankton
important physical features in the ocean, components, are also susceptible to
thereby impacting marine species that anthropogenic ocean acidification due to
take advantage of these features. For increasing carbon dioxide (CO2),
example, the Transition Zone decreasing their ability to build their
Chlorophyll Front is a sharp boundary in calcium carbonate (CaCO3) structures
the waters north of the Hawaiian Islands (Feely et al., 2004; Orr et al., 2005;
between the stratified, low surface Kleypas et al., 2006).
chlorophyll water and the cooler,
vertically mixed, high surface There exists the need for science to
chlorophyll water. This productive identify how climate variability impacts
feature is used as a migration pathway ecosystems and how different
by sea turtles and tunas (Polovina et al., ecosystems respond to climate forcing,
2001), and its winter location appears to differentiate the impacts of short-term
important to the survival of monk seal variability (year-to-year, multi-year)
pups. Climate change will also from longer term variability (decadal
influence the thermal regime in the Great and longer), and to identify the most
Lakes, impacting the growth rate cost-effective ways to adapt to the
potential of important fish species changes or reduce the risk of negative
(Brandt et al., 2002). impacts. Without this information,
society cannot rationally assess the costs
Rising sea level directly impacts coastal and benefits of policy options to mitigate
ecosystems (Boesch et al., 2000), the impacts of climate variability or
inundating wetlands and shallow water adapt human uses to account for the
habitats and increasing, salinity, wave magnitude and timing of climate-
action, and storm surges. In regions induced changes.
where coastal development interferes
with the landward migration of coastal
ecosystems as sea level rises, the NOAA’s Role in Framing Climate-
ecosystems may disappear. Shifts in Ecosystem Issues
precipitation change the amount, timing,
and contents of freshwater runoff, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
thereby impacting coastal and estuarine Administration (NOAA) has
areas (Boesch et al., 2000). For responsibilities to monitor, understand,
example, the large hypoxic zone that and predict the impacts of global climate
7change on marine and coastal and the living resources contained
ecosystems. Specifically, NOAA has therein, and to provide the knowledge
responsibilities to: and tools needed to incorporate climate
• monitor and model changes in variability into the management of living
coastal production as a consequence marine and coastal resources. This topic
of predicted climate changes in the area entails a wide variety of projects to
rate and amount of runoff and in the investigate and provide a predictive
timing of spring phytoplankton capability of the impacts of changing
blooms; climate on coastal and marine
• evaluate and predict climate impacts, ecosystems. In addition to projects
including increases in CO2, on coral focused on what have become known as
ecosystems; climate regime shifts (e.g., ecosystems
• adapt how it manages marine alternating between anomalous warm
fisheries, marine mammals, and and cool states (Hollowed and Wooster,
protected marine species by 1992)), this topic also includes studies to
accounting for the impacts of climate investigate: coastal and marine
variability and change on marine ecosystem impacts from any change in
ecosystems; and the physical environment due to
• utilize predictions of climate status changing climate; the impact of
to forecast the impact of such change diminishing ice cover (e.g., impacts
on coastal ecosystems. diminishing sea ice on marine mammals
and fisheries within the Bering Sea
As an agency, NOAA has the ecosystem); and how climate variability
capabilities and legislative mandates to and change impact the productivity of
exert leadership in conducting this work. Pacific salmon within their oceanic and
Without NOAA investment, society’s freshwater habitats.
ability to adapt to changes in coastal and
marine ecosystems will be severely Coastal response to sea-level rise:
limited. To plan development that will protect
coastal property and ecosystems, state
To address these needs, NOAA has and local governments need accurate and
identified the following high-priority precise elevation maps showing the
topic areas: extent of coastal inundation due to
projected sea level rise. Projects within
Climate regimes and ecosystem this topic will collect topographic and
productivity: bathymetric data to create detailed
Profound shifts in biological elevation maps which, along with
productivity, species distributions, and hydrographic modeling, comprise
ecosystem structure are often ecological precise coastal flooding models (CFMs).
responses to climate variability, and are While CFMs are required to protect
of great consequence to fishery- human-made infrastructure, projects
dependent communities and the under this topic also provide for
commercial fishing industry. Projects protecting ecosystems by modeling the
within this topic aim to predict the responses of the various types of
probable consequences of climate wetlands and shallow water habitats to
change on coastal and marine systems
8increases in water depth, salinity, waves, shallow and deep water corals and
and storm surges. calcifying plankton, will decrease as
CO2 concentrations continue to rise.
Nutrient-climate interactions: Many of these organisms are of direct
Climate change models predict major economic importance to human
shifts in the amount of precipitation populations, while the others are
experienced by various regions of the important in the marine food web.
United States. In addition, the coastal Projects within this topic will gain a
glaciers of Alaska are melting. Such better understanding of how ocean
changes may lead to increased runoff of biology and chemistry will respond to
freshwater and its nutrients into coastal higher CO2 and concomitant lower pH
and estuarine areas, making them more conditions so that predictive models of
susceptible to eutrophication. For these processes and their impacts on
marine systems, this will also enhance marine ecosystems can be developed.
stratification, further increasing the
susceptibility to eutrophication. These
projects will monitor and model changes Influences External to NOAA that will
in coastal eutrophication as a Drive Future Needs
consequence of predicted climate
changes in the rate and amount of runoff. It is increasingly apparent that coastal
and marine ecosystems are not in a
Coral bleaching: steady state and that resource managers
Bleaching occurs when corals are must be prepared to adapt to changing
stressed by a synergistic combination of conditions. In addition to the
stressors, including increases in sea importance of annual to decadal scale
surface temperature. These projects will climate variability to ecosystems, global
improve the current network of climate change is predicted to have
observational sensors and provide an increasingly significant effects over the
integrated approach capable of next fifteen years. Such change will
forecasting the time, place, and potential impact both the mean state of the
severity of coral bleaching events. environment and its variability. By not
Successful forecasting of coral bleaching accounting for climate variability and
events will allow managers and change in its information exchange with
stakeholders to prepare for, forestall, resource managers, NOAA risks
and/or minimize the devastating effects providing management advice that does
of bleaching on coastal ecosystems and not match evolving environmental
resource loss resulting from bleaching conditions and thereby risks
events. mismanagement of coastal and marine
ecosystems. As any large-scale climatic
Decalcification: change will result in both winners (i.e.,
The carbonate equilibrium of the oceans species who do better in a new climate
is shifting in response to increasing regime) and losers (i.e., species who do
atmospheric CO2 concentrations. There not thrive under such change), failure to
is also mounting evidence that consider climate in management
calcification rates of several major decisions can and will result in over- or
groups of marine calcifiers, including under-harvesting of living resources and
9poor management of non-harvested consequences of climate variability and
species. This will clearly impact not change on marine ecosystems. Its
only the ecosystems, but also the strategy is to develop the ability to
individuals and communities that are predict the consequences of climate
dependent upon coastal and marine change on ecosystems by monitoring
resources. Long-range planning will be changes in coastal and marine
improved if a predictive capability for ecosystems, conducting research on
climate impacts on ecosystems is climate-ecosystem linkages, and
developed. Accounting for climate incorporating climate information into
variability and change is an important predictive physical-biological indicators
component of implementing an and models.
ecosystem approach to marine resource
management as called for in the U.S. NOAA’s Climate and Ecosystems
Ocean Action Plan (CEQ, 2004). In the Program was initiated in fiscal year (FY)
coming decades, as anthropogenic 2004 with one project. The North
stressors continue to impact coastal and Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem
marine ecosystems through coastal Productivity (NPCREP) project is
development and resource exploitation, developing an understanding of how
climate impacts are likely to become climate fluctuations and change affect
increasingly important. Through studies the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of
to monitor, understand, and predict the Alaska ecosystems. NPCREP is
impacts of global climate change on utilizing a combination of retrospective,
marine and coastal ecosystems, NOAA monitoring, process, and modeling
will address needs identified in the U.S. studies to advance the understanding of
Climate Change Science Program climate impacts on the fisheries in the
(CCSP) Strategic Plan (U.S. Climate region, thereby generating the necessary
Change Science Program, 2003). foundation for understanding climate-
ecosystem relationships. Through the
increased understanding being obtained,
II. Science Capabilities Necessary to NPCREP is developing indicators of
Support Future Decision-Making climate impacts and models to predict
the probable consequences of climate
Present capabilities change on the eastern Bering Sea and
Gulf of Alaska ecosystems. These
NOAA has made large investments products are given to fisheries managers
towards understanding the physical at the North Pacific Fishery
climate system and describing the Management Council (NPFMC) so that
mechanisms that govern climate climate variability and change can be
variability and change. However, very incorporated into management decisions
little work has been done to understand affecting the LMRs in these regions.
the impacts of climate variability or the
implications of future climate change on In addition to its Climate and
coastal and marine ecosystems. For this Ecosystems Program, NOAA is involved
reason, NOAA initiated a Climate and in a number of projects related to the
Ecosystems Program with the objective impacts of climate on marine
of understanding and predicting the ecosystems:
10• NOAA has helped support projects of the most appropriate products and
in the Georges Bank/Northwest models.
Atlantic Region and the Northeast • There is no ongoing NOAA project
Pacific (with components in the addressing the effect of climate
California Current and the Coastal change on coastal eutrophication or
Gulf of Alaska) that are coordinated modeling activity directly predicting
by the U.S. Global Ocean the locations and intensity of
Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC), a climate-driven coastal
research program addressing how eutrophication. However, existing
global climate change may affect the monitoring programs making in situ-
abundance and production of marine or satellite-based measurements of
animals. water quality and chlorophyll
• Since 2004, NOAA has been concentrations are beginning to
creating CFMs with a precision of 20 create the long-term database
cm in order to map coastal required to document such responses
inundation under the existing and to climate change.
projected rate of sea level rise.
Included is an ecological component
to model changes in coastal habitats New or Enhanced Capabilities that will
as a function of rates of sea level rise be Required
and landscape characteristics. These
models are designed for local Enabling the incorporation of climate
managers to accommodate sea level impacts into management plans, by
rise and its ecological consequences predicting the probable consequences of
into coastal development plans. climate variability and change on coastal
• NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch Program and marine ecosystems and delivering
has developed a variety of satellite- the knowledge and predictive tools to
and in situ-based products that managers, is essential. To support this
monitor the environmental goal, NOAA needs to: 1) expand its
conditions of coral reef ecosystems, capability to develop biophysical
and is linking ecosystem models indicators and models so coastal and
with current and past climate data to marine resource management can adapt
enable understanding of the to predicted climate-induced changes in
relationship between climate fishery, coastal, and coral reef resources;
parameters and coral ecosystem 2) expand its capability to monitor
response. changes in coastal and marine
• NOAA scientists are incorporating ecosystems through a network of in situ
indices of environmental variation and remote observing systems; and 3)
into assessments of the status of gain an understanding of the
living resource populations. Some of mechanisms and rates that control
these investigations are providing ecosystem response to climate variability
useful information to managers; and change. Predictive biophysical
however, these efforts should be indicators and models will allow for the
better connected and coordinated to proactive management of living
ensure information exchange and use resources, the most efficient manner in
which to manage resources. Monitoring
11changes in ecosystems will allow for ground truth the output from these
reactive management and provide data models and develop approaches to
essential for the development of directly or indirectly extend them to
indicators and models. Understanding address higher trophic level dynamics.
the mechanisms and rates that control The development of spatially resolved
ecosystem productivity and energy flux models to predict and assess the
is critical for the development of implications of climate variability and
predictive indicators and models. change on ecosystems is crucial for
planning adaptation strategies. These
NOAA requires an integrated climate- predictive models will provide a
ecosystem observing system to provide framework within which mitigation or
climate variability data as well as adaptation strategies and policy options
synoptic ecosystem structure and can be explored.
productivity information. Such input
parameters would be used to document Science and Research needed to
ecosystem responses to climate changes, Support these Capabilities
to develop a better understanding of
climate effects on ecosystems, and to There is sufficient technology to achieve
develop more timely biophysical a better understanding and more accurate
indicators and models that support and precise predictive capability of
management and policy actions. ecosystem responses to climate
Additional days-at-sea aboard next- variability and change. While new
generation oceanographic and fisheries observation technologies and advances
survey vessels are required to make the in modeling techniques would accelerate
critically needed observations (via the rate of achievement, the fundamental
deployment of moorings and satellite- need for a predictive ability to be
tracked drifters, as well as surveys of achieved is advancement in the
hydrography, fish stocks, protected conceptual understanding of the
resources, and plankton) and to conduct mechanisms through which climate
at-sea research to understand the impacts ecosystems. This requires
processes and mechanisms of climate process-based research focused on
impacts on ecosystems. improving the understanding of the
linkages between climate forcing and
Ocean models will be important tools to ecosystem responses at various time and
investigate and describe physical and space scales. This understanding is
biological responses resulting from essential to enable the development and
climate variability. Currently both testing of indicators of climate impacts
watershed-scale and regional ocean on ecosystems as well as models to
models are being used as research tools predict the probable consequences of
to describe ocean responses resulting climate variability and change on
from recent climate variability. Some of particular regions. Without the
these ocean-atmosphere coupled models knowledge of the mechanisms linking
also include a lower trophic level ecosystem responses to climate,
component to describe spatial and scientists and managers will be forced to
temporal aspects of plankton dynamics. rely on correlations between climate
A priority of future research will be to forcing and ecosystem responses. Often,
12these correlations break down over time Observing System (IOOS) through the
because there is no mechanistic link Alaska Ocean Observing System and the
among the parameters. They will almost Northwest Association of Networked
certainly break down under changed Ocean Observing Systems, and
climate forcing, since the linkages programs supported by other agencies
between the critical mechanisms that and non-governmental organizations
impact productivity will likely change. (NGOs) (e.g., programs supported by the
National Science Foundation, the North
Pacific Research Board, and the Exxon
III. Partnerships Necessary to Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council).
Effectively Address the Emerging NOAA’s work on developing CFMs for
Issues a portion of the North Carolina coast -
work that could evolve into a national
To effectively address the impacts of effort - requires the active participation
climate on marine ecosystems, NOAA of scientists with local knowledge and
must partner with other Federal state support in obtaining precise
agencies, as well as state and local topography. NOAA’s monitoring of
agencies, to leverage their expertise and coastal eutrophication within the
resources. Coordination of programs at National Estuarine Research Reserves is
the Federal level is conducted through done in partnership with states.
the Ecosystem Interagency Working
Group of the U.S. CCSP. NOAA
utilizes knowledge gained on ecosystem IV. Benefits to NOAA, Constituents,
responses to climate variability within and Society from this Effort
the U.S. and from around the world by
academia, government agencies and There are significant benefits to be
programs, and other entities. NOAA derived from better understanding and
scientists, along with their partners from forecasting of ecosystem responses to
academia and private industry who are climate variability. Projects within this
supported by research grants, are topic have a high potential to positively
conducting the single existing project impact management of these ecosystems
within NOAA’s Climate and Ecosystems and have a wide range of additional
Program. A significant portion of the benefits. For instance, they would
funding for all proposed Climate and enable NOAA to address the urgent and
Ecosystems projects would support continuing needs of living resource
academic researchers through grants in managers and move NOAA toward its
order to enhance collaborations and stated goal of ecosystem-based
provide necessary scientific expertise. management. NOAA would be able to
In addition, due to the scope of the observe, understand, and predict
information needed to address the ecological effects of climate variability
questions of the program, a wide range and change on major coastal and marine
of linkages and partnerships with other ecosystems of the United States. Users
programs are necessary. For example, would be provided the information
NPCREP, the Climate and Ecosystems needed for decisions about responses of
Program project, is linked with other LMRs and coastal zones to climate-
NOAA projects, the Integrated Ocean induced perturbations. Consideration of
13the potential impacts of climate Managers of coral reef resources would
variability on ecosystems and coastal benefit from predictions of climate
zones would become an explicit impacts on coral reefs by allowing them
component of LMR and coastal zone to quantify the risk of different reefs to
management (CZM) plans. climate impacts, identify regions to
maximize conservation, and reduce other
Fisheries managers would be able to stressors on reefs during predicted times
more accurately predict the optimum of increased climate induced stress.
yield for fishery stocks, thereby These predictions will also help
minimizing the amount of unrealized scientists better understand the cold
harvest or overharvesting of species. water corals that are found within U.S.
They could use the predictive waters.
information to modify fishing effort,
timing, or location for particular species; Climate variability and change have
change the gear type used; or change significant implications for the
which species are targeted for a region. distribution and abundance of species
The knowledge and predictive tools and for the productivity and functioning
generated by these investigations would of ecosystems as climate sets the
be of great value to the management of boundaries within which species are
marine mammals and other protected adapted. As species are excluded from
species, ensuring that potential direct presently inhabited geographic regions
and indirect climate impacts on their due to changed climate, some may
populations are considered. This disappear completely while others may
information would also help fishers with shift their geographic distributions if
their fishing strategies and their there is sufficient time and habitat. In
equipment investment planning, thus regions where major species shifts occur,
benefiting fishery-dependent human the newly structured ecosystems may be
communities. more or less productive than the present
ones, but management policies adapted
Coastal managers would benefit from for the present ecosystem will not apply
the development of precise maps of in the changed ecosystem. Changes in
predicted coastal inundation due to these ecosystems and their management
climate-induced sea level rise, models of will have a great impact on human
ecosystem responses to increased water communities and sectors dependent upon
depth and salinity, and models of susceptible LMRs.
changes in coastal eutrophication as a
consequence of climate variability. With
these models, coastal managers can plan
development that will have minimal
impact on coastal ecosystems, taking
into account climate impacts.
14White Paper #2 recognition that fishing is but one
competing use of ecosystems that
produces a broad set of ecological and
Management of
societal benefits. But the benefits are
Living Marine Resources not achieved without costs; thus, there is
in an Ecosystem Context a need to manage LMRs in an ecosystem
context. The critical need for a more
holistic approach to managing the use of
Authors: LMRs has been well articulated in a
Doug DeMaster, NOAA Fisheries, number of recent publications, including
Alaska Fisheries Science Center the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy
Mike Fogarty, NOAA Fisheries, report (USCOP, 2004), U.S. Ocean
Northeast Fisheries Science Center Action Plan (CEQ, 2004), Pew Oceans
Doran Mason, NOAA Research, Great Commission report (2003), Rappoport
Lakes Environmental Research (1998), report to Congress by the
Laboratory Ecosystem Principles Advisory Panel
Gary Matlock, NOAA National Ocean (1999), report by the United Nations’
Service, National Centers for Coastal Food and Agriculture Organization
Ocean Science (FAO, 2003), a series of essays
Anne Hollowed, NOAA Fisheries, published by the Marine Ecology
Alaska Fisheries Science Center Progress Series (Browman and Stergiou,
2004), and a series of National Research
I. Description of the Issue Council (NRC) publications (1994,
1999b, 1999c, 2001, 2002), as well as
One of the four goals articulated in numerous references contained therein.
NOAA’s Strategic Plan is to “protect,
restore and manage coastal and ocean
resources through an ecosystem The NOAA Perspective on
approach” (NOAA, 2004). This goal Management of LMRs
flows from the mandates and direction of
such Federal laws, executive orders, There are more than 90 Congressional
courts, and international treaties as the laws, treaty obligations, executive
Magnuson-Stevens Fishery and orders, regional agreements, NOAA-
Conservation Management Act specific policies, memoranda of
(MSFCMA), Endangered Species Act understanding with other Federal
(ESA), National Environmental Policy agencies, and court orders that drive the
Act (NEPA), Marine Mammal requirements of NOAA’s Ecosystem
Protection Act, Coral Reef Conservation Mission Goal (NOAA, 2005c). Over the
Act, Coastal Zone Management Act, last 20 years, NOAA has worked to
National Marine Sanctuaries Act, establish the scientific underpinning for
International Commission for the an ecosystem approach to management
Conservation of Atlantic Tunas, and (EAM) of coastal and ocean LMRs, so
Inter-American Tropical Tuna that complex societal choices are
Commission. These directives reflect informed by comprehensive and reliable
society’s desire for policies and scientific information (DeMaster and
institutions to manage the environment. Sandifer, 2004; NOAA, 2005b). The
When combined, they reflect the
15types of products and services NOAA many national and international
intends to provide to constituents and organizations. By necessity, it requires
agency managers include: (1) forecasts discourse between researchers and
and mitigation strategies related to managers, and in the future, NOAA will
harmful algal blooms (HABs), invasive need to increasingly incorporate
species, and air and water quality; (2) constituent input into this discourse.
ecological assessments and predictions The key assumption under this approach
of impacts from climate change on ocean is that management tools that do not
productivity (e.g., coral bleaching and perform well in computer simulations
loss of sea ice in the Bering Sea; see are very likely to fail in the real world.
White Paper #1); (3) decision support That doesn’t mean that management
tools for adaptive, ecosystem-based tools that perform well will necessarily
management of fisheries, other marine produce satisfactory results in the real
resources, and coastal development; (4) world, but they are certainly more likely
improved assessments of sea level to be successful than non-tested
change on coastal resources and management approaches. One form of
ecosystems; (5) better integration of decision support tools used to evaluate
observing system data for use by the impacts of harvest policy is a
managers responsible for the health of management strategy evaluation (MSE).
coastal ecosystems; and (6) fishery NEPA requires that agencies conduct
productivity forecasts incorporating the this type of review to provide public
effects of climate change. disclosure of potential impacts of
management actions. The MSE is an
For each of these products (e.g., attempt to provide quantitative, rather
forecasts, assessments, decision support than qualitative, information for
tools), it will be necessary to take decision-makers. Thus, NOAA
account or otherwise incorporate scientists play a crucial role in the
uncertainty associated with parameter process by providing the analysis tools
estimation and process error (e.g., and forecasts that will facilitate
uncertainty of how a change in one collaborations among managers,
component of an ecosystem influences researchers, and constituents to
the others). This is typically done by encourage the development of policies
evaluating the performance of competing with full knowledge of the necessary
approaches using output from computer tradeoffs between the likelihood of
simulations that are run under a wide sustainable use of a LMR, its
range of scenarios (FAO, 2003). Field community, or its ecosystem and the
data collected in support of these models likelihood of acceptable social or
are often not collected from a wide economic performance.
variety of system states, so there must be
inference regarding underlying processes A Common Lexicon for Ecosystem
dictating changes (e.g., prey switching Concepts
by predators). The evaluation of
performance must be closely coordinated As discussed in the overview, NOAA
with resource managers and policy has adopted a common lexicon to
makers. Such an approach has become promote a shared understanding and
one of the basic tenets of an EAM by
16usage of ecosystem concepts (NOAA, prerequisite to the success of this
2004; FAO, 2003): management approach. An a priori
assessment of possible ecosystem states
An ecosystem is a geographically must become the foundation for the
specified system of organisms selection of preferred management
(including humans), the actions.
environment, and the processes that
control its dynamics. Progress towards implementing an EAM
for LMRs can occur in stages along a
The environment is the biological, continuum. For example, management
chemical, physical, and social under an ecosystem approach can be
conditions that surround organisms. categorized into at least three levels. The
When appropriate, the term first level is single species management
environment should be qualified as of targeted resources, with issues of
biological, chemical, physical, and/or protected species, non-target species,
social. habitat, and species interactions
incorporated as important
An EAM is management that is considerations. The second level is a
adaptive, geographically specified, multi-species aggregate and system level
takes account of ecosystem approach. This management level
knowledge and uncertainties, incorporates important ecological and
considers multiple external environmental factors, such as trophic
influences, and strives to balance structure, carrying capacity, climate
diverse social objectives. anomalies or regime shift influences, on
the condition of the ecosystem. The third
A fishery can refer to the sum of all level is a comprehensive, multiple sector
fishing activities on a given resource. approach that captures activities and
It may also refer to the activities of a values associated with all external
single type or style of fishing on a influences (i.e., fishing and non-fishing
particular resource. The term is used sectors) impacting the condition and
in both senses. sustainability of ecosystems. The focus
is not only on LMR conservation or
The phrase “ecosystem approach to extraction, but also on uses of and
management” (instead of “ecosystem impacts on marine ecosystems by
management”) is used throughout the transportation, military, oil and gas
document in deference to the preferred sectors, etc.
international convention. An EAM is
incremental, as neither the scientific nor Background
fiscal underpinnings are usually
available to quickly and fully implement A number of recent publications provide
ecosystem approaches in every location. perspectives and approaches on how
LMR management changes ecosystems LMRs will be managed in an ecosystem
and their components. Specifying goals context over the next fifteen years:
for the condition of LMRs, the
ecosystem of which they are a part, and 1. Report to Congress by the Ecosystem
the human enterprise of fishing is a Principles Advisory Panel (1999, p. 3):
17“The benefits of adopting ecosystem- ecosystem services requires a process
based fishery management and research that engages scientists and decision-
are more sustainable fisheries and makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are
marine ecosystems, as well as more necessary because of the climate and
economically-healthy coastal societal controls on ecosystems, the
communities. We have identified actions feedbacks involving social change, and
required to realize these benefits. We the decision –making relevance of
urge the Secretary and Congress to forecasts.”
make those resources available.” (Note:
the eight ecosystem principals 4. Hilborn (in Browman and Stergiou
recommended by the Panel are presented [2004, pp. 275-276]):
in Appendix A). “No one questions that the majority of
the world’s fisheries are heavily used,
2. Murawski (2000, p. 649): many are overfished, some have
“Ecosystem considerations may be collapsed, and good biological and
incorporated into fisheries management economic management suggests
by modifying existing overfishing substantial reductions in fishing
paradigms or by developing new pressure are needed for sustainable
approaches to account for ecosystem management.”; “I, and others (Garcia et
structure and function in relation to al. 2003, Sissenwine & Mace 2003),
harvesting. Although existing concepts believe that we need a form of ecosystem
of overfishing have a strong theoretical management that emphasizes the
basis for evaluating policy choices and interaction between fish, fishermen and
much practical use, they do not provide government regulators and concentrates
direct guidance on issues such as on incentives and participation with user
biodiversity, serial depletion, habitat groups. This difference can be
degradation, and changes in the food considered as a choice between a
web caused by fishing.” and “Ecosystem participatory approach with incentives
considerations do not need to substitute as a ‘carrot’, and a centralized
for existing overfishing concepts. government using regulations as a
Instead, they should be used to evaluate ‘stick’.”; and “To argue that we need
and modify primary management more data intensive management and
guidance for important fisheries and more regulation by central governments
species.” in the fisheries of the world that have
little data and little regulation is
3. Clark et al. (2001, p. 657): untenable.”
“Planning and decision-making can be
improved by access to reliable forecasts 5. Pew Oceans Commission (2003):
of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, The Pew Oceans Commission identified
and natural capital. Availability of new governance structure as one key issue in
data sets, together with progress in developing more robust U.S. fisheries
computation and statistics, will increase management.
our ability to forecast ecosystem change.
An agenda that would lead toward a 6. Jennings (in Browman and Stergiou
capacity to produce, evaluate, and [2004, p. 279]):
communicate forecasts of critical “EAF [Ecosystem Approaches to
18Fisheries] is part of the ecosystem not routinely evaluated in current
approach. The broad purpose of the species-by-species or fishery-based
EAF is to plan, develop and manage management programs.”; “Controlling
fisheries in a manner that addresses the fishing mortality, and manipulating its
multiple needs and desires of societies, application on particular size or age
without jeopardizing the options for classes, are the keys to achieving the
future generations to benefit from the typical objectives of sustainability, high
full range of goods and services yield, and efficiency. Often, this is done
(including, of course, non fisheries by setting a Total Allowable Catch
benefits) provided by marine (TAC) based on the relationship between
ecosystems.” catch and fishing mortality. Another
approach is to limit fishing effort (days
7. Mace (in Browman and Stergiou at sea or some other effort metric) since
[2004, p. 291]): fishing mortality is proportional to
“The lack of adequate monitoring of effort. Controlling fishing mortality
marine species, habitats and through either a TAC or limit on fishing
oceanographic factors is perhaps the effort requires considerable scientific
most difficult problem of all to address, information about the fishery and
primarily because of the prohibitive resource species.”; and “Moving from
costs associated with conducting surveys ’intelligent tinkering’ to a more direct
of marine resources and the high costs focus on ecosystem properties and
of simply monitoring catches in many outcomes will necessarily involve closer
countries. Realistic cost-benefit analyses ties between science and management.”
may well indicate that the costs of
comprehensive scientific research far 9. U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy
exceed both short- and long-term (2004, p. 411):
potential economic benefits to the fishing “The many potentially beneficial uses of
industry. As a result, while a few ocean and coastal resources should be
countries may be improving their acknowledged and managed in a way
monitoring capabilities (e.g. the United that balances competing uses while
States), others are losing funds for preserving and protecting the overall
research and monitoring. Recent integrity of the ocean and coastal
progress includes several ambitious environments.”; and “Downward trends
programs under the auspices of the in marine biodiversity should be
Global Ocean Observing System reversed where they exist, with a desired
(GOOS), Global Ocean Ecosystem end of maintaining or recovering natural
Dynamic Programs (GLOBEC), and the levels of biological diversity and
Census of Marine Life (CML).” ecosystem services.”
8. Sissenwine and Murawski (in 10. Pikitch et al. (2004, p. 347):
Browman and Stergiou [2004, pp. 292- “Protecting essential habitat for fish and
295]): other important ecosystem components
“Incorporation of ecosystem-based from destructive fishing practices
approaches into fisheries management increases fish diversity and abundance.
involves accounting for a number of Thus, ocean zoning, in which type and
important classes of interactions that are level of allowable human activity are
19specified spatially and temporally, will successful for present and future
be a critical element of EBFM. … We generations.”
believe EBFM can be implemented in
systems that differ in levels of Overview of Managing LMRs in an
information and uncertainty through the Ecosystem Context
judicious use of a precautionary
approach. This means erring on the side There is increasing recognition of the
of caution in setting management targets need for management of LMRs in an
and limits when information is sparse or ecosystem context. Globally, declines in
uncertain. Greater uncertainty would be fishery resources, alteration of critical
associated with more stringent habitats, incidental capture of non-target
management measures. Because species, and the effects of climate
ecosystem management involves a wide variability all point to the need for a
range of objectives, great ecosystem more holistic approach to understanding
complexity, and a high level of human impacts on marine ecosystems
uncertainty in predicting impacts, EBFM and the interplay of natural and
inevitably requires that some level of anthropogenic agents of change.
precaution be exercised. Ideally, EBFM Nonetheless, as noted in the U.S. Ocean
would shift the burden of proof so that Action Plan (2004, p. 18), progress
fishing would not take place unless it toward restoring and maintaining healthy
could be shown not to harm key recreational and commercial fishing has
components of the ecosystem. been made in recent years. For example,
Progression from data-poor to data-rich since 2000, “17 major stocks have been
EBFM will be facilitated by adaptive rebuilt and/or removed from the list of
management and greater understanding overfished stocks (dropping from 56 to
of how ecosystems respond to alternative 39); almost all (over 93 percent) of the
fishing strategies.” remaining overfished stocks have
rebuilding plans in place, the number of
11. Hall and Mainprize (2004, pp. 18- species subject to overfishing has
19): decreased by 37 (48 percent); and the
“In a fisheries context, perhaps the most number of stocks with an “unknown”
important discussion of all must be status level has decreased by 48 (25
about what constitutes a desirable or an percent).”
undesirable state for an ecosystem and
how one weighs the importance of the The U.S. Ocean Action Plan strongly
various attributes… Identifying endorsed the concept of EAM following
stakeholders, distinguishing between the report of The U.S. Commission on
fishing and environmental impacts, Ocean Policy. The Commission noted
initiating comprehensive consultations, that (2004, p. 411)
finding alternative incentives and
choosing ideal measures for “U.S. ocean and coastal resources
management are all critical should be managed to reflect the
considerations. Only once this is relationships among all ecosystem
achieved will we be on the road to components, including human and
producing healthy fisheries that are nonhuman species and the environments
ecologically and economically in which they live. Applying this
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