Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung der energiepolitischen Rahmenbedingungen des Erneuerbare-Energien-Sektors in der EU in Hinblick auf die 2020 ...
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Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung der
energiepolitischen Rahmenbedingungen des
Erneuerbare-Energien-Sektors in der EU in
Hinblick auf die 2020 Zielerreichung
Authors: Lukas Liebmann, Gustav Resch
Energy Economics Group, TU Wien
Contact:
Web: http://eeg.tuwien.ac.at
Email: liebmann@eeg.tuwien.ac.at
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs,
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 1
Motivation und zentrale Fragestellung
• Wie entsprechen der historische Verlauf und die Szenarienergebnisse des
erneuerbaren Elektrizitäts-, Wärme- und Verkehrssektors den selbstgesteckten
Zielen der nationalen Aktionspläne der 28 Mitgliedsstaaten?
• Welche Ergebnisse liefern modellbasierte Evaluierungen der energiepolitischen
Rahmenbedingungen für den Sektor der Erneuerbaren Energien der 28 EU
Mitgliedsstaaten in Hinblick auf die 2020 Zielerreichung eins 20% Anteils am
Bruttoendenergieverbrauch?
• Ein Vergleich von verschiedenen Ausbauszenarien des Green-X Modells soll ein
detailliertes Verständnis für den Stand, die Aussichten und Herausforderungen
des Erneuerbare-Energien-Sektors innerhalb der EU und deren 28 Mitgliedsstaaten
liefern.
Legal disclaimer: The sole responsibility for the content of this presentation lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the
European Union. Neither the EACI nor the European Commission are responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs,
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 2
(1) Status Quo
(In 2 0 1 4 )
2014
2014
2014
2014
à 24 MS on track regarding NREAP targets,
and 4 underachieved.
à 27 MS have met the 2013/2014 RES directives
interim trajectory milestone.
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: All MS NREAPS, EUROSTAT Shares (2016) and Resch et al. (2015)
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 3
(1) Status Quo
25%
20%
15%
10%
actual overall RES share
5%
NREAP overall RES trajectory
minimum trajectory defined in RES dirctive
0%
2019
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2020
40%
35%
30%
25% actual RES-E share
20% NREAP RES-E trajectory
15% actual RES-H&C share
10% NREAP RES-H&C trajectory
actual RES-T share
5%
NREAP RES-T trajectory
0%
2008
2020
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: All MS NREAPS and EUROSTAT Shares (2016)
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 4
(1) Status Quo
14.0% 14.0%
14.0%
12.0% 12.0%
12.0%
10.0% 10.0%
10.0%
8.0% 8.0%
8.0%
6.0% 6.0%
6.0%
4.0% 4.0%
4.0%
2.0% 2.0%
2.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Electricity Heat Transport Overall Electricity Heat Transport Overall
0.0%
Electricity 2010-2014 Electricity 2014-2020 Heating & Cooling 2010-2014 Heating & Cooling 2014-2020
Transport 2010-2014 Transport 2014-2020 Overall 2010-2014 Overall 2014-2020
Electricity Heating & Cooling Transport Overall
Growth rates of RES 2010-2013 [%/a] versus average annual growth rates [%/a] required from 2014 to
2020 to achieve the 2020 target.
Source: All MS NREAPS and EUROSTAT Shares (2016)
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs,
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 5(2) Ergebnisse einer modellbasierten Evaluierung
► Key assumptions
… by use of a specialised energy system model (Green-X) a quantitative assessment was
conducted to assess feasible RES developments up to 2020 according to the defined policy
pathways, indicating feasible RES deployment at country level that can be expected in the
near future as well as related impacts on costs and benefits in a brief manner.
Main input sources for scenario parameters
Based on PRIMES Based on Green-X database Defined for this assessment
Primary energy prices RES cost (investment, fuel, O&M) RES policy framework
Conventional supply portfolio
RES potential Reference electricity prices
and conversion efficiencies
Modified data on energy demand
CO2 intensity of sectors Biomass trade specification by sector, impacted by energy
efficiency*
Default data on energy demand Technology diffusion / Non-economic
by sector barriers
Learning rates
*Primes scenario used: Reference
case (as of 2013)
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs,
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 6(2) Ergebnisse einer modellbasierten Evaluierung
This MS is expected to achieve
its 2020 target
Results:
“Business as usual” (BAU) scenario
There are doubts whether this
Business-as-usual scenario MS may achieve its 2020 target
… 2020 RES target This MS is not well on track to
achieve its 2020 target
achievement
► 9 MSs appear being well
on track
► In another 4 MSs there
are doubts whether
2020 targets are
reached
► 14 MSs can be classified
as “not well on track”!
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: Green-X –
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 7 Keep on Track! scenarios (2014)(2) Ergebnisse einer modellbasierten Evaluierung
This MS is expected to achieve
its 2020 target
Results:
“Business as usual” (BAU) scenario
There are doubts whether this
Business-as-usual scenario MS may achieve its 2020 target
… 2020 RES target This MS is not well on track to
achieve its 2020 target
achievement
► 10 MSs appear being
well on track
► In another 3 MSs there
are doubts whether
2020 targets are
reached
► 15 MSs can be classified
as “not well on track”!
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: Green-X –
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 8 Keep on Track! scenarios (2015)(2) Ergebnisse einer modellbasierten Evaluierung
Results: This MS is expected to exceed its
(PR) scenario
2020 target domestically and acts as
Policy recommendations a (possible) seller within in the RES
cooperation mechanism in 2020
scenario (incl. complementary
This MS is expected to achieve its
activities to improve energy
2020 target through a combination
efficiency) of domestic action and RES
“Policy recommendations”
… 2020 RES target cooperation, acting as a buyer for
meeting the remaining gap
achievement
► All MSs achieve their
2020 RES targets
► The majority of MSs
even exceeds its
obligations – there are
good reasons doing so!
(Supply security, local
employment, …)
► 3 MSs make use of
cooperation
mechanisms as a
buyer while all other act as
(possible) seller
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: Green-X –
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 9 Keep on Track! scenarios (2015)(3) Ein Vergleich von unterschiedlichen Ausbauszenarien
Results: RES-H share development and absolute RES deployment at EU level
25% Historic and expected future
23,7% RES-H
23.3% RES developments
developments &
energy
finaldemand
20% 2020 RES target
20% 19,5% BAU
16,5% 18.4%
fulfillment
PR
energy
[%]
BAU
Historic deployment
in gross
15% PR
demand
16.0%
sharefinal
Datenreihen3
[%]
2020 RES target
in gross
10%
Breakdown of
RES-H
Biofuels for transport
RES generation
RES share
5% RES-heating & cooling
RES-electricity by sector
3,500
Energy production from RES [TWh/a]
0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 3,000
291.0
2,500 238.6
RES share in gross final energy demand 2,000 152.6 1362.5
at EU level 1,500 1017.4
1226.6
according to the BAU and PR case 1,000
1262.5
500 871.5 1036.9
0
2014 2020 (BAU) 2020 (PR)
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: Green-X –
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 10 Keep on Track! scenarios (2015)(3) Ein Vergleich von unterschiedlichen Ausbauszenarien
Results: Comparison of sector-specific RES deployment by 2020 at EU level
2020 (BAU) 2020 (PR)
Breakdwon (of generation) Breakdwon (of generation)
Biogas 2013
Biomass*
by RES-H&C technology by RES-E technology
3% 6% 5%
Geothermal 2% 6%
Large hydro 8%
Small hydro 13% 12%
12%
PV 25% 30%
29%
CSP
25%
Tidal & wave 10% 31%
37% 11%
Wind onshore 15%
Wind offshore 6% 5% 4%
2013 2020 (BAU) 2020 (PR)
8% 3% 3%
2% 3% 3% 4%
1% 11% 12%
Biogas 1% 1%
Biomass*
Geothermal
Solar thermal
86% 82% 80%
Heat pumps
Breakdown (of generation) by RES-E and RES-H&C technology for EU-28
according to the BAU and PR case
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: Green-X –
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 11 Keep on Track! scenarios (2015)(3) Ein Vergleich von unterschiedlichen Ausbauszenarien
Results: Investments, costs & benefits of RES deployment at EU level
Avoided expenses for CO2 emission allowances
Avoided expenses for fossil fuel (imports)
Support expenditures
RES (installed 2011 to 2020) at EU level [billion €]
Capital expenditures
Indicators on yearly average (2011 to 2020) costs
and benefits of as well as investments in new
90
80
70
60
50
40 80.8
4.9
30 56.8
1.9
20
28.7 30.1 30.7
26.2
10
0
Business as usaul (BAU) Policy recommendations (PR)
Investments, selected costs & benefits
according to the BAU case (left) and the
“Policy recommendations” (PR) case
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: Green-X –
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 12 Keep on Track! scenarios (2013)(3) Ein Vergleich von unterschiedlichen Ausbauszenarien
Results: RES-H share development and absolute RES deployment in Austria
25%
45% Historic and expected future
41.3%
23,7% RES-H
23.3% RES developments
developments &
energy
finaldemand
40%
36.9%
20% 2020 RES target
20%
35% 19,5% BAU
16,5% 34%
18.4%
fulfillment
33.1% PR
energy
[%]
30% BAU
Historic deployment
in gross
15% BAU
PR
demand
25% 16.0%
sharefinal
PR
Datenreihen3
[%]
20% Datenreihen3
2020 RES target
in gross
10%
2020 RES target
15% Breakdown of
RES-H
Biofuels for transport
RES share
10% RES-heating & cooling RES generation
5%
RES-electricity by sector
5%
3,500
140
Energy production from RES [TWh/a]
0%
3,000
120 6.9 7.9
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 291.0
2,500
100 6.2
238.6
59.4 61.4
RES share in gross final energy demand 80
2,000 152.6
49.7 1362.5
at EU level 60
1,500 1017.4
1226.6
according to the BAU and PR case 40
1,000
49.6 56.8 57.6
1262.5
20
500 871.5 1036.9
00
2014
2014 2020
2020(BAU)
(BAU) 2020
2020 (PR)
(PR)
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: Green-X –
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 13 Keep on Track! scenarios (2015)(3) Ein Vergleich von unterschiedlichen Ausbauszenarien
Results: Comparison of sector-specific RES deployment by 2020 in Austria
2020 (BAU) 2020 (PR)
Breakdwon (of generation) Breakdwon (of generation)
Biogas 2013
Biomass* 6%
by RES-H&C technology by RES-E technology
2% 2%
Geothermal 1% 1%
4%
4%
Large hydro 9% 9%
11% 13%
Small hydro 8%
PV 13% 12% 11%
CSP
Tidal & wave
Wind onshore 71% 62% 61%
Wind offshore
2013 2020 (BAU) 2020 (PR)
3% 3% 5% 2%
4% 3% 1% 4% 6%
1% 1%
1%
Biogas
Biomass*
Geothermal
Solar thermal
Heat pumps 91% 86% 89%
Breakdown (of generation) by RES-E and RES-H&C technology for EU-28
according to the BAU and PR case
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs, Source: Green-X –
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 14 Keep on Track! scenarios (2015)(3) Recommendations
In the Communication of the Energy Union Package, the EU dedicated itself to becoming the
world’s “number one in renewables”. This is a much welcomed commitment, especially at a time
with global warming on the rise and the lingering question of security of energy supply, enhanced by the
continuing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the EU.
In order to truly achieve the goal of making the EU the number one in renewables, the EU must:
► Ensure the achievement of its 20% renewables target by 2020.
► Strive for an ambitious and binding 2030 renewable energy target which is
significantly higher than 27%, alongside energy efficiency and greenhouse gas
emissions targets. Adopt a strong governance framework to facilitate and
ensure the achievement of these targets.
► Ensure a predictable and stable legislative framework for renewables at the
national level and in particular to avoid any retroactive changes to existing
support schemes.
► Establish an energy market design based on increasing shares of renewable
energies. Remove all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear.
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs,
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 15Danke für Ihre Aufmersamkeit!
Literatur
[1] Richtlinie 2009/28/EG Des europäischen Parlaments und des Rates vom 23. April 2009 zur Förderung der
Nutzung von Energie aus erneuerbaren Quellen und zur Änderung und anschließenden Aufhebung der Richtlinien
2001/77/EG und 2003/30/EG.
[2] Hamelinck, C., de Lovinfosse, I., Koper, M., Beestermoeller, C., Nabe, C., Kimmel, M., van den Bos, A., Yildiz,
I., Harteveld, M., Ragwitz, M., Steinhilber, S., Nysten, J., Fouquet, D., Resch, G., Liebmann, L., Ortner, A., Panzer, C.,
Walden, D., Diaz Chavez, R., Byers, B., Petrova, S., Kunen, E., Fischer, G. (2012) Renewable energy progress and biofuels
sustainability, Ecofys: Utrecht, Niederlande
[3] Hamelinck, C., Koper, M., Janeiro, L., Klessmann, C., Kuwahata, R., Nabe, C., Doering, M., Cuijpers, M., van
den Bos, A., Spoettle, M., Alberici, S., Ragwitz, M., Steinhilber, S., Nysten, J., Fouquet, D., Resch, G., Liebmann, L.,
Ortner, A., Panzer, C., Johnson, F., Olsen, O., Godar, J., Karlberg, L., Fischer, G. (2014) Renewable energy progress and
biofuels sustainability, Ecofys: Utrecht, Niederlande, Verfügbar unter
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/Final%20report%20-November%202014.pdf.
[4] Resch, G., Liebmann, L., Ortner, A., Busch, S. (2014) 2020 RES scenarios for Europe - are Member States
well on track for achieving 2020 RES targets?, Ein Bericht erstellt im Rahmen des Intelligent Energy Europe Projekts
Keep-on-Track!, koordiniert von Eufores und Eclareon, Technische Universität Wien - Energy Economics Group (EEG):
Wien, Österreich, Verfügbar unter www.keepontrack.eu.
[5] Resch, G., Liebmann, L., Welisch, M. (2015) 2020 RES scenarios for Europe - are Member States well on
track for achieving 2020 RES targets?, Ein Bericht erstellt im Rahmen des Intelligent Energy Europe Projekts Keep-on-
Track!, koordiniert von Eufores und Eclareon, Technische Universität Wien - Energy Economics Group (EEG): Wien,
Österreich, Verfügbar unter www.keepontrack.eu.
Lukas Liebman
Contact
e-mail: liebmann@eeg.tuwien.ac.at phone: +43-1-58801-370 355
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs,
Energy Economics
Graz, 10.2.2016… SlideGroup
16 (EEG), Vienna University of Technology, http://eeg.tuwien.ac.at(2) Outlook towards 2020
… from “business as usual” (BAU) to improved RES policies
► Green-X modelling in accordance with a detailed qualitative assessment
of expected future (2020) (“Policy recommendations” scenario)
RES progress
Policy recommendations
scenario:
BAU case: ◄ Meeting/Exceeding 20% RES by 2020
RES policies are as precondition
applied as currently ◄ Continuation BUT fine-tuning
implemented (increasing cost-efficiency & effectiveness)
(without any of national RES policies: improving the design of
adaptation) until RES policies but no change of the in prior chosen
2020, RES policy instrument type
i.e. a business as ◄ Mitigation of non-cost barriers
usual (BAU) ◄ RES cooperation comes into play in the
forecast. exceptional case that pure national target
fulfilment appears not feasible
◄ Increase in energy efficiency in accordance
with 2020 energy efficiency targets
www.green-x.at
Eine modellbasierte Evaluierung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Sekto rs,
Graz, 10.2.2016… Slide 17You can also read
