PART ONE 2019 - SURVEY RESULTS - Freeman Media
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SURVEY REPORT 2017
PA R T O N E – 2 0 1 9 – S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
ENERGY NEWS
www.energynews.co.nz
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PART 1 - 2019
Highlights
Results from Part One of the 2019 Energy News and ABB Electricity Survey are now in. We had more than 200 respondents complete the
six-question survey, providing an insight into the sector’s thoughts on decarbonising New Zealand’s electricity sector.
Thanks to our industry advisory panel, who are helping to develop the surveys this year. Part Two is due to go live in June.
In response to Part One of our survey, the sector thought:
Industry needs EVs are here to
to go electric stay
Displacing non-renewable energy Growth of electric vehicle
through electrification of transport registrations will likely follow the
and process heat is the best way NZ S-curve trend post-2021
can exploit its renewable advantage
Hydrogen
remains
Prices will spike questionable
Expect greater price volatility and The economics don’t stack up at the
security risk once Genesis says moment, but that might change
good-bye to burning coal
ENERGY NEWS 3
www.energynews.co.nz
PART 1 - 2019
Decarbonisation
Timeline for change
Question 1
For the fourth year running we want you to gaze into the crystal ball yet again and tell us when you think this country will hit the following
milestones. How have your views changed over time?
100 MW of solar in NZ
Single solar asset over 5 MW 2019
New generation asset over 50 MW 2018
2017
20,000* electric vehicles
2016
All networks with utility scale batteries
Next network amalgamation
50 retailers
2018 2020 2022 2024 2030 Never
Date
Milestone 2020 2022 2024 2030 NEVER
100 MW of solar installed?
58% 26% 8% 6% 2%
(90 MW as of 31 Jan 2019)
A single solar project over 5 MW?
6% 29% 31% 27% 7%
(Yealands is the largest at 0.5 MW)
A new generation asset over 50 MW? 18% 26% 28% 21% 7%
20,000 electric vehicles?
31% 49% 14% 5% 1%
(12,197 as of 31 Jan 2019)
All networks with utility-scale batteries?
1% 6% 24% 47% 22%
(3 in 2018)
Next lines company amalgamation? 12% 28% 30% 15% 15%
50 retail brands?
6% 25% 25% 9% 35%
(40 as of 31 Jan 2019)
* We increased the number of retailers to 50 in 2018, from 40 in 2016 and 2017.
* This year we increased the number of EVs to 20,000 from 10,000 in previous years.
ENERGY NEWS 4
www.energynews.co.nzPART 1 - 2019
Decarbonisation
Question 2
This country has a strong renewable electricity standing when compared globally. What is the best way to exploit this renewable
advantage? Choose one option you most agree with:
Making and An HVDC link between NZ
exporting hydrogen and Australia
More low emissions
industrial exports
5% 3%
12%
By displacing non-
renewables
16%
Knowledge and
experience 64%
By displacing non-renewable energy through electrification of transport and process
heat – 64%
Knowledge and experience - such as New Zealand-based companies working offshore to
help develop renewable projects – 16%
By making more low emissions industrial exports like aluminium – 12%
By making hydrogen and exporting it to markets that have the infrastructure to use it – 5%
Linking New Zealand and Australia’s electricity markets via an HVDC link – 3%
ENERGY NEWS 5
www.energynews.co.nzPART 1 - 2019
Decarbonisation
Question 3
Genesis has indicated it will halt the use of coal for power generation by 2030. Which of the following do you think will most likely happen after
this? Choose one option:
Consumers will opt for their own
Tiwai will close so
energy storage methods
it doesn’t matter
69
48
44 Genesis will not
30 stop using coal
25
1%
8
2 4%
Greater price volatility
11% and security risk
31%
More focus
on other deep
energy storage
optimisation 13%
19%
21%
More renewables will
be built
Genesis will use more
gas
There will be greater price volatility and security risk if renewables do not have a
thermal back up – 31%
Genesis will replace its coal use with gas – 21%
More renewable generation will be built to cover the shortfall – 19%
There will be a bigger focus on optimising the performance of other deep energy
storage options – 13%
Genesis will not stop using coal by then – 11%
The Tiwai aluminium smelter will cease operation around the same time so it won’t be a
problem – 4%
Wealthy consumers might become less confident in centralised security of supply and
opt to use their own storage methods, such as diesel generation or batteries – 1%
ENERGY NEWS 6
www.energynews.co.nzPART 1 - 2019
Decarbonisation
Question 4
We are moving ever closer to the deadline year for the national target of 64,000 electric vehicles on New Zealand roads by 2021. As of
January 2019 there were more than 12,000 registered. How do you see EV registrations tracking post-2021? Choose one option:
TAAS and other alternative fuels
will become more popular
Exponentially
7%
11% Growth will likely follow
the S-curve trend
38%
18%
Growth will slow post
mid-2020
26%
Growth will continue
regardless of any changes
Growth will likely follow the S-curve trend – 38%
All major producers are pursuing electric drive trains and abandoning ICE - it doesn’t really
matter, the genie is out of the bottle – 26%
Growth will slow once the road user charge exemption for EVs expires in June 2020 – 18%
Exponentially – 11%
EV registrations will be overtaken by the growth of transport-as-a-service offerings or other
alternative fuels – 7%
ENERGY NEWS 7
www.energynews.co.nzPART 1 - 2019
Decarbonisation
Question 5
On the subject of electrifying transport - for each of the different transport modes, choose what percentage of the fleet you think will be electric
by 2035:
Light vehicles
Bicycles/scooters
Ferries/ships
Trains
Trucks
0% 10% 20% 40% 50% 70% More
EV fleet percentage
Milestone 0% 10% 20% 40% 50% 70% More
Light vehicles
1% 8% 25% 24% 20% 17% 5%
Bicycles/scooters 1% 7% 16% 17% 30% 21% 8%
Ferries/ships 28% 41% 22% 3% 4% 1% 1%
Trains 4% 14% 17% 19% 13% 20% 13%
Trucks 11% 26% 31% 16% 8% 7% 1%
ENERGY NEWS 8
www.energynews.co.nzPART 1 - 2019
Decarbonisation
Question 6
The Government has strong aspirations to create a hydrogen industry in this country to help it meet its net zero carbon goals. What are your
thoughts on this stance? Choose one option you most agree with:
It will only work as a
transport fuel
They’re going down
the right path
6%
It’s early days but
12% good to get started
39%
15%
This is an
impossible task
28%
We cannot meet
decarbonisation goals
with hydrogen
I don’t think the economics stack up yet, but it is good to get this ground work in
place – 39%
Decarbonisation goals cannot be met by hydrogen and there are more economic ways to
achieve a better outcome through electrification – 28%
No country in the world has cracked this - what makes us think we can? We have been
down this path before. It didn’t work then, it won’t work now – 15%
They’re going down the right path - this is a good way for us to lower emissions in the
heavy transport fleet and in some power generation – 12%
I see it only being successful as a transport fuel – 6%
ENERGY NEWS 9
www.energynews.co.nzPART
QTR 1 - 2019
2018
Further thoughts
Thanks to those who provided further thoughts on the survey’s theme. Here are some of your comments below:
“We have the technical ability and resources to decarbonise the electricity system
while maintaining security of supply. The question is whether we are open
minded enough and have the will to.”
“Cut gas too soon, this means coal will be used for a much longer than necessary
time.”
“Government-led programmes are bound to fail. This process will only reach its
goal with substantial technical break throughs and consumer demand.”
“Hydrogen is likely to be of the energy system, finding a niche (which might be
significant), but it will not meet all fossil fuel replacement needs. Of course it does
not compare to the incumbent systems because they were less expensive and
have benefited from a century of intense R&D and capital investment.”
“The new paradigms will take off as soon as all the baby boomers retire from the
power industry.”
“The whole of the electrical industry is in need of a clean up. There are too many
organisations contributing various ideas and achieving little.”
“The industry is losing sight of diversity and resilience.”
ENERGY NEWS 10
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About ABB About Energy News
ABB (ABBN: SIX Swiss Ex) is a pioneering technology leader in Energy News is New Zealand’s online news and information service
electrification products, robotics and motion, industrial automation for the energy sector. The website was launched in 2008 and now
and power grids, serving customers in utilities, industry and transport boasts more than 5,000 readers every month from 300 subscribing
& infrastructure globally. Continuing a history of innovation spanning organisations. Its readership consists of New Zealand energy sector
more than 130 years, ABB today is writing the future of industrial organisations and service companies spanning the electricity, oil and
digitalisation with two clear value propositions: bringing electricity gas, petroleum and alternative energy value chain.
from any power plant to any plug and automating industries from
The subscription-based site provides daily news, executive interviews,
natural resources to finished products. As title partner of Formula E,
opinion and commentary. It also hosts a suite of information resources
the fully electric international FIA motorsport class, ABB is pushing
including two large databases of asset owners and energy resources.
the boundaries of e-mobility to contribute to a sustainable future. ABB
Other information includes 30-minute electricity prices, supply and
operates in more than 100 countries with about 135,000 employees.
demand monitoring, petroleum permit deadline summaries and an oil
www.abb.com
price monitor.
* Cover image: Auckland Museum’s solar array
ENERGY NEWS 11
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