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Financial Mail Page 1 -26/02/15 12:32:00 AM

                 Financial Mail
                  February 26, 2015           SPECIAL REPORT      WWW.FINANCIALMAIL.CO.ZA

                                                               Brace yourself for
                                                                more tax hikes
                                                                      Treasury’s battle
                                                                 to control public finances
                                                                  set to continue. Page 4

                                                                  Alternative
                                                               scenarios for fiscal
                                                                    stability
                                                                 Treasury for the first time
                                                               reveals potential fiscal disaster
                                                                     outcomes. Page 4

                                                                   Corporate tax
                                                                    untouched
                                                                But personal and fuel taxes
                                                                  are loaded. Page 18-20

                                                                  Transfer duties
                                                               Relief for middle class. Page 34

                                                                    Land reform
                                                                  Modest rise in allocation
                                                               aimed at boosting smallholder
                                                                   farms and strategic
                                                                   acquisitions. Page 35

                                                               Sars commissioner
                                                                  Tom Moyane
                                                                    On meeting targets
                                                                  in tough times. Page 14
Financial Mail - Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
Financial Mail Page 2 -25/02/15 09:11:22 PM

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Financial Mail - Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
Financial Mail Page 3 -26/02/15 12:32:13 AM

                 FM Contents

                                                                                                                                           23
                                                                                    36
                 On the cover
                                                   8                                Spiwe Chireka
                                                                                    Telecommunications
                                                                                    analyst
                 4 Tax hikes                       Dennis Davis                                                                          Lynne Brown
                 4 Scenarios                       Tax committee                                                                    Public enterprises
                 19 Corporate tax
                                                   chairman                                                                                   minister
                 34 Transfer duty
                 35 Land reform

                                                   24
                 14 Tom Moyane
                    Cover image:
                    Trevor Samson

                                                                                                          14
                                                   Dan Matjila                                            Tom Moyane
                                                   Public Investment Corp                                 SA Revenue Service
                                                   head                                                   commissioner

                                                   Overview                         Revenue                             28 Provinces
                                                   4 Budget 2015/2016               15 Tax compliance                      Salaries up
                                                      Serious about fiscal health      Looking for every cent           28 Tourism
                                                   8 Highlights and lowlights       18 Personal taxes                      Just don’t use electricity
                                                      No shock, no delight             Net cast wider                   29 Education
                                                   10 Political analysis            19 Corporate tax                       Norms and standards to meet
                                                      Not entirely convincing          Rate unchanged                   30 Security
                                                   14 Q&A                           19 Sin taxes                           Could spend more
                                                      Sars commissioner Tom            The usual suspects               31 Infrastructure
                 Online                               Moyane                        20 Green taxes                         Impatient for action
                 The Financial Mail’s website is   ——————————————————————————          Incentives to save               33 Home affairs
                 at www.financialmail.co.za        Opinion                          ——————————————————————————             Beefing up for elections
                                                   7 Nicolaas Kruger                Policy                              33 Social protection
                                                      Spirit of collaboration       22 Government borrowing                Welfare rises
                                                   13 Blum Khan                        Repayments to escalate           34 Human settlements
                                                      Africa beckons                23 State-owned enterprises             Hard to dent backlog
                                                   17 Dylan Garnett                    Don’t say “privatisation”        34 Transfer duties
                                                      NHI inertia                   24 Personal savings                    Welcome relief
                                                   21 Rowan Burger                     Tax-free accounts                35 Rural development
                                                      Long road of change           25 Small business                      Getting strategic
                                                   26 Khanyi Nzukuma                   One-stop supplier database       36 Telecommunications
                 Twitter                                                                                                   Boost for broadband
                                                      Improving saving              25 Skills development
                 Follow the FM on                                                                                       37 Mining
                                                   32 Sibusiso Mabuza                  Desperate measures
                 @FinancialMail                       Invest for sustainability     ——————————————————————————             Phakisa treatment
                                                   38 Mark van der Watt             Spending
                 E-mail                               Look at your personal plan    27 Health
                 fmmail@fm.co.za                                                       Bailout for laboratory service

                                                                                                  February 26 - March 4, 2015     Financial Mail 3
Financial Mail - Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
Financial Mail Page 4-5 -25/02/15 11:11:04 PM

                 FM Overview

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ‘‘
                                                                                                                                                                                     could fall to 1% this year.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Likewise, if global growth slows by more
                                                                                                                                                                                     than anticipated by the IMF, causing export
                                                                                                                                                                                     commodity prices to slide by a further 10%,
                                                                                                                                                                                     SA’s growth performance could come in at
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           SLOW GROWTH PUTS LONG-TERM SOCIOECONOMIC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                TRANSFORMATION PROJECT AT RISK
                                                                                                                                                                                     1,5% this year and 2,1% in 2016 (see graph).
                                                                                                                                                                                         According to treasury officials, the reason
                                                                                                                                                                                     for disclosing these in-house scenarios is                                                           LUNGISA FUZILE
                                                                                                                                                                                     that the uncertainty over both the SA and
                                                                                                                                                                                     the global economic outlook is higher than
                                                                                                                                                                                     normal.
                                                                                                                                                                                         There are question marks over the poten-      ance Fund contributions worth about                      next two years and freezing personnel
                                                                                                                                                                                     tial for a further slowdown in China, the         R15bn). The deficit is still forecast to taper to        numbers.
                                                                                                                                                                                     sustainability of the low oil price and the       2,6% in 2016/2017 and 2,5% thereafter.                      But it is going to be a big stretch for SA to
                                                                                                                                                                                     effect of monetary stimulus in Europe, not           SA’s problem is that serial growth dis-               bring the deficit down to 2,5% over the
                                                                                                                                                                                     to mention whether or not another Eskom           appointments, coupled with a lax wage dis-               medium term while still upholding Nene’s
                                                                                                                                                                                     silo could collapse.                              pensation and years of strong spending                   pledge to protect spending on core social
                                                                                                                                                                                         Despite the downside risks to the growth      growth, have saddled the country with a                  and economic programmes.
                                                                                                                                                                                     outlook, treasury assumes that after two          structural mismatch between revenue and                     “The key challenge will be to reduce real
                                                                                                                                                                                     lean years SA’s growth will pick up to an         expenditure.                                             expenditure growth to 2,1% [as budgeted]
                                                                                                                                                                                     above-potential 3% in 2017.                          As a result, government debt has almost               over the next three years while getting more
                                                                                                                                                                                         Flowing from this, the budget deficit is      doubled from 21,8% at the start of the global            bang for our buck. There is still a long grind
                                                                                                                                                                                     set to narrow from 3,9% in 2014/2015 to 2,5%      financial crisis in 2008/2009 to 40,8% in                ahead,” says Kamp.

                                                                                                                                                                     Trevor Samson
                                                                                                                                                                                     by 2017/2018, with government net loan debt       2014/2015. Interest payments on this debt, at               Reuss agrees. He fears that by not having
                  Tom Moyane, Nhlanhla Nene, Mcebisi Jonas and Lungisa Fuzile                                                                                                        stabilising below 44% in the same year.           R115bn this fiscal year, have become the                 raised taxes by a larger amount now, trea-
                   Finance minister and his men arrive for budget speech                                                                                                                 This adheres closely to the fiscal con-       fastest-growing item of government expen-                sury hasn’t left itself much room to
                                                                                                                                                                                     solidation path set out in the mini-budget in     diture. SA is budgeting to spend a shocking              manoeuvre on the expenditure side. This
                                                                                                                                                                                     October. SA’s ability to meet these targets is                                                                    raises the implementation risk, espe-
                 BUDGET 2015/2016                                                                                                                                                    a key indicator used by credit rating agen-
                                                                                                                                                                                     cies to judge whether the country is serious       GDP GROWTH                                                     cially around the current wage nego-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       tiations with public sector unions.

                 Straining the limits
                                                                                                                                                                                     about stopping the erosion of its public           Economic scenarios to 2017                                         The Budget Review identifies three
                                                                                                                                                                                     finances.                                                                                                         main risks to the fiscal outlook: that
                                                                                                                                                                                         With SA’s sovereign credit rating on the       Percentage change (y-o-y)                                      growth turns out weaker than expect-
                                                                                                                                                                                     skids towards junk status, no slippage on          3,0                                                            ed; that the public sector wage settle-
                                                                                                                                                                                     these targets can be countenanced. So the                                                                         ment comes in significantly above
                                                                                                                                                                                     consistency of the 2015 budget should be           2,5                                                            consumer inflation; and that public
                                                                                                                                                                                     well received by the credit rating agencies.                                                                      entities require direct support or
                 The budget shows government is serious                                                                     It says it has no choice but to hike taxes
                                                                                                                        and curb expenditure, even though SA’s
                                                                                                                                                                                         Standard & Poor’s MD for SA and sub-
                                                                                                                                                                                     Saharan Africa Konrad Reuss welcomes the           2,0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       guarantees beyond current estimates.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           This first risk — that growth turns
                 about returning SA to fiscal health                                                                    muted economic outlook suggests the very                     fact that the 2015 budget sticks to the medi-                                                                     out to be weaker than expected —
                                                                                                                        opposite is necessary.                                       um-term plan to reverse SA’s debt dynam-           1,5                                                            would reduce revenue collection,
                                                                                                                            HSBC’s SA economist David Faulkner                       ics, as well as its “measured, balanced                                                                           widen the primary balance and raise

                 S
                                                                                                                        points out that SA’s weak growth outlook                     approach”.                                                      Base                                              debt-service costs.
                          outh Africans should brace them-           WHAT IT           move, generating an extra        and energy supply concerns have made this                        For despite SA’s growth slowdown,              1,0          Lower global growth                                   Economists have questioned the
                                                                     MEANS
                          selves for a tough few years of high-                        R6,4bn in the coming fiscal      fiscal consolidation task more difficult, and                finance minister Nhlanhla Nene looks set to                     More binding electricity                          wisdom of treasury repeatedly build-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Less binding electricity
                          er taxation as government seeks to                           year.                            that several risks remain.                                   narrowly beat his 2014/2015 consolidated           0,5                                                            ing an automatic growth upswing into
                          close the hole in the national budget,
                 hampered by a weak and uncertain growth
                                                                     GROWTH               Analysts are surprised
                                                                                       that the wealthy weren’t
                                                                                                                            “However, we think these fiscal adjust-
                                                                                                                        ments are necessary for SA to start sta-
                                                                                                                                                                                     budget deficit target of 4,1% of GDP.
                                                                                                                                                                                         He has revised the deficit to 3,9%, owing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2012       2013       2014        2015   2016     2017 consecutive budgets.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           In fact, treasury’s growth forecasts
                 outlook.                                            FORECAST          singled out to bear a dis-       bilising its debt levels and make the public                 partly to stellar personal tax collection (due
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       have had to be revised down for five
                    Before accounting for fiscal drag, nearly        CUT TO            proportionate burden of the      finances sustainable over the medium term.”                  to high wage increases) and the fortuitous                                                                        years in a row.
                 R17bn will be clawed back from taxpayers in         DISMAL 2%         tax hike and relieved that           Treasury has cut its growth forecasts to                 rebasing of GDP data — a routine statistical      R420bn on debt service costs over the next                  But without an acceleration in growth,
                 2015/2016 through a variety of measures,                              there was no growth-             below those of the IMF and the Reserve                       exercise which has had the effect of narrow-      three years, which reflects average nominal              SA’s deficit and debt trajectories would
                 including a one percentage point increase in        DEFICIT           sapping increase in taxes on     Bank as well as the prevailing consensus to a                ing the 2014/2015 deficit as a percentage of      growth in interest payments of 9,4% over                 worsen. The budget hangs together only as
                 the marginal personal income tax rates of all       NARROWS TO        savings and investment.          dismal 2,0% for 2015 and 2,4% in 2016 from                   GDP by 0,2 percentage points.                     this period.                                             long as economic growth recovers.
                 but the lowest earners.
                    This is the first time in two decades that
                                                                     3,9% IN              “To the extent that this
                                                                                       was a shift, it was a shift in
                                                                                                                        2,5% and 2,8% previously.
                                                                                                                            For the first time, the Budget Review
                                                                                                                                                                                         Other lucky breaks that have eased SA’s
                                                                                                                                                                                     fiscal bind include the fact that cheap oil has
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Government debt has now climbed to the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       point where Nene says “if we don’t deal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Treasury director-general Lungisa Fuzile
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                defended the treasury’s growth forecasts as
                 the overall personal income tax burden has          2014/2015         the right direction,” says       reveals some alternative scenarios that                      lowered the inflation trajectory, allowing        with it, by 2016 we will be paying more in               realistic at a pre-budget briefing, saying: “We
                 been raised. But because these hikes will be                          Sanlam Investment Man-           national treasury fears could materialise if                 departments to buy more goods and ser-            interest than in social grants”.                         care about our credibility and wouldn’t put
                 almost fully offset by adjustments for fiscal       agement economist Arthur Kamp. “It’s pos-          the core assumptions underpinning its                        vices without breaching the expenditure              To reassert control over the fiscus, Nene             them out there if we didn’t think they were
                 drag, a large part of the tax changes will fall     sible that if we look back in a few years’         growth forecast turn out to be incorrect.                    ceiling. It may also help facilitate a sus-       remains committed to the plan he outlined                achievable.”
                 on indirect, consumption taxes.                     time we will view this as the budget that              For instance, it warns that its 2% real                  tainable wage agreement.                          in the mini-budget in October.                              But he is under no illusion that the eco-
                    Of these, the fuel levy is taking the            turned us back into safer waters.”                 GDP forecast for 2015 is premised on the                         Nene has revised next year’s budget              In addition to tax increases, curbs on                nomy faces a difficult few years. In the
                 biggest hit. It will be hiked by a hefty 80,5c/l.      Treasury has made no bones about the            assumption that there will be intermittent                   deficit target from 3,6% to 3,9% of GDP (in       wastage, and the deficit-neutral financing of            foreword to the Budget Review, he says “slow
                 This will raise government’s take-out from          fact that SA’s public finances are straining       load-shedding. Should there be further dete-                 order to give employers and employees a           state-owned enterprises, it still involves               economic growth puts our society and long-
                 27,6% of the petrol price to 41% in one swift       the limits of debt sustainability.                 rioration in electricity availability, growth                one-year holiday on Unemployment Insur-           reducing expenditure by R25bn over the                   term socioeconomic transformation project

                 4 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015                                                                                                                                                                                                                          February 26 - March 4, 2015       Financial Mail 5
Financial Mail - Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
Financial Mail Page 6 -26/02/15 12:03:22 AM

                 FM Overview
                                                                      STATE APPLIES BRAKES
                 at risk” and suggests that the solution to                                                                                  Between 2006/2007 and 2010/2011,
                 faster, investment-led growth lies in imple-                                                                            national and provincial personnel expendi-
                 menting the National Development Plan.               Consolidated government fiscal framework                           ture grew by over 15%/year “despite little
                     Konstantin Makrelov, national treasury’s                                                                            evidence of a corresponding improvement
                                                                                              2014/15
                 chief director of economic modelling and                                                 2015/16   2016/17    2017/18   in service delivery”.
                                                                                              Revised
                 forecasting, concedes that the required esca-       Rbn % of GDP            estimate         Medium term estimates          Between 2007/2008 and 2010/2011, total
                 lation in economic growth from 1,5% in 2014                                                                             local government personnel spending
                 to 2,4% in 2016 and 3% in 2017 is steep in an       Revenue                 1 091,0      1 188,9   1 331,5   1 439,5    increased by 60% from R27bn to more than
                 environment where confidence is low.                                         28,1%       28,4%     29,3%      29,2%     R43bn.
                 Expectations that the economy is capable of         Expenditure            1 243,4       1 351,0 1 448,8      1 561,7       In addition, national treasury estimates
                 growing at only 2,0%-2,5% are in danger of                                  32,0%         32,2% 31,9%          31,7%    that most public sector workers are in the
                 becoming self-fulfilling, he fears.                                                                                     top 30% of wage earners nationally. “Typic-
                                                                     Budget balance              -152,4   -162,2    -117,3     -122,2
                     But treasury believes that beyond 2016                                      -3,9%    -3,9%     -2,6%       -2,5%    ally, higher-income earners experience
                 the electricity constraint will be far less                                                                             inflation in line with or slightly below con-
                 binding. This, accompanied by the removal           SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY                                           sumer inflation,” it notes, “yet wage
                 of other domestic supply-side bottlenecks                                                                               demands remain in excess of CPI inflation.”
                 and improvements in the global economy,                In addition, it stated that the Davis tax                            The third risk raised by treasury is that
                 should allow SA to achieve 3% growth by             committee has noted that compared with                              public entities may require direct support or
                 2017.                                               rates in other countries, there also appears                        guarantees beyond current estimates.
                     “If the economy does OK we won’t need           to be some scope to increase taxes on capital                           According to the Budget Review, net loan
                 to raise taxes, but if the growth doesn’t           income and Vat.                                                     debt is set to stabilise at under 45% in the
                 materialise we’ll be faced with another                The Budget Review says the tax committee                         medium term.
                 round of tax increases in 2016,” an official at     will publish reports on these and other                                 However, SA’s total public sector debt
                 the SA Revenue Service told the Financial           taxes, as well as the overall tax system, soon                      (which includes the liabilities of state-
                 Mail during pre-budget technical briefings.         and adds ominously that “these reports will                         owned companies and local government)
                     This suggests it would be wise for tax-         inform policy considerations in the 2016                            was 59,1% in 2013/2014.
                 payers to start preparing for further mild tax      budget”.                                                                This is hardly a sustainable number.
                 increases over the medium term, given the              The second major risk to SA’s fiscal out-                            In recognition of this threat, the Budget
                 uncertain growth outlook.                           look is that the public sector wage settle-                         Review for the first time devotes an entire
                     Though the 2015 budget leaves the com-          ment comes in significantly above consumer                          chapter to the financial position of public
                 pany tax rate unchanged at 28% and Vat at           inflation.                                                          sector institutions. It concludes that
                 14%, the door was left open to a future hike           Treasury has allowed for the compen-                             “although the solvency of these institutions
                 in Vat with treasury noting in the Budget           sation budget to grow by just 6,6% in nomi-                         is strong overall, several poorly performing
                 Review that “since Vat is directed at con-          nal terms over the next three years. The                            and inefficient entities represent significant
                 sumption, it is regarded as more efficient          budget also assumes that the overall head                           risks to public finances”.
                 than other taxes with a less damaging               count will stabilise at current levels, allow-                          This is probably the closest any finance
                 impact on long-term economic growth”.               ing the share of compensation to stabilise at                       minister has come to publicly lambasting
                                                                             about 40% of noninterest spending                           state-owned entities for the damage being

                  SPENDING CATEGORIES                                        over the medium term.
                                                                                 In October, treasury warned that
                                                                                                                                         done to the fiscus by their mismanagement
                                                                                                                                         and perennial demands for bail-outs.
                  Spending growth by economic classification                 any departure from the path of CPI-                             One example of this is the fact that 50c of
                                                                             linked cost-of-living adjustments                           the 80,5c/l increase in the fuel levy will have
                      Next three years:      Last three years:               would require a reallocation of                             to be sidelined to cover the R98,5bn un-
                      2014/15 - 2017/18      2011/12 - 2014/15               resources from other spending areas                         funded liability the Road Accident Fund has
                                                                             (capital, goods and services, transfers)                    accumulated. Most of this is owed to
                                                           9,4               or prompt a need to reduce govern-                          lawyers, not victims of road accidents.
                   Interest payments                                         ment employment.                                                In general, government is working with
                                                                                 “Whatever happens [in the current                       all state-owned enterprises to develop sus-
                                                          8,9                wage    negotiations] it shouldn’t                          tainable financial frameworks supported by
                    Capital payments
                                                                             impact on our deficit,” Nene told                           turnaround plans.
                                                                             journalists in a pre-budget briefing,                           The bottom line is that treasury has
                                                     7,1
                     Capital transfers                                       but added that it would be “a sad                           delivered a realistic budget which makes a
                                                                             situation” if SA reached the point                          genuine attempt to correct the fiscal mis-
                                                    6,9
                                                                             where it was paying more for wages                          takes of the past without resorting to heavy-
                    Current transfers
                                                                             than on providing services.                                 handed tax measures or growth-sapping
                        and subsidies
                                                                                 The 2015 Budget Review goes fur-                        cuts to departmental budgets.
                                                   6,6                       ther than previous budget documents                             What the 2015 budget cannot do is
                       Compensation                                          in asserting that one of the main rea-                      double as a growth strategy or a job-creation
                                                                             sons for SA’s structural budget deficit                     plan. There is no fiscal room to do more
                                               5,1                           is that the state has been too lax on                       than protect capital budgets while re-
                  Goods and services
                                                                             wages and personnel growth.                                 doubling efforts to root out wastage and
                                                                                 It reveals that over the past                           corruption so that every tax rand goes
                                       0   2  4     6     8    10 12 14
                                                                             decade, public sector unit labour                           further. It is up to the rest of government
                                                  % growth
                                                                             costs have increased by more than                           now to play its part.               Claire Bisseker
                  SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY
                                                                             80% in real terms.                                                                         bissekerc@fm.co.za

                 6 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015
Financial Mail - Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
Financial Mail Page 7 -25/02/15 10:13:55 PM

                 FM Opinion
                 Nicolaas Kruger

                 The spirit of collaboration
                 In the new global context, we urgently need to rediscover the spirit
                 of collaboration and sharing within and between countries

                 I
                        n an increasingly connected yet con-                               tions and narrow interests are         graphic endowments, as well as
                                                                                           ingrained not only in our socio-       its national and regional unique-
                        strained world, it is quite clear that                             political and socioeconomic            ness. SA cannot afford to be
                        greater collaboration is required.                                 fabric, but across the world.          sidestepped in the opportunity
                        However, a common cause and shar-                                      If we gloss over how chal-         of an Africa rising.
                                                                                           lenging it is to achieve real,             Besides the objectives and
                        ing of resources is easy to envisage,                              practical collaboration, we run        plans it espouses, the National
                 but difficult to achieve, and requires a rad-                             the risk of relegating it to just      Development Plan points to the
                                                                                           another catchphrase. As such, it       need for deep transformation in
                 ical recommitment to forgo self-interest for                              will have little credibility or cur-   our society; from entitlement to
                 collective wellbeing. Collaboration across                                rency in accelerating the pos-         inclusiveness. We need to return
                                                                                           itive change we need. To create        to the dream on which our
                 different spheres of society, and                                         the conditions necessary for col-      nation was built, to remember
                                                                                           laboration, for the sake of our        that “I am what I am because of
                 within and between different         grappling with poverty, inequal-     collective future, will take bold      who we all are”. Indeed, we
                 organisations, countries and         ity, geopolitical conflict and       and visionary leadership in all        have found ways to co-operate
                 regions, has never been more         environmental degradation, just      sectors of society.                    and collaborate across deep
                 necessary than it is today. Tack-    as they are looking to harness           In SA, the common cause of         divides before. The miracle of
                 ling the compounding chal-           the profound possibilities of the    nation building remains elusive,       SA’s transition to democracy is
                 lenges we face and finding the       digital revolution.                  as witnessed in the hostile activ-     known around the world for the
                 solutions and advances we need           The Davos conclusion was         ity on the afternoon of the state      unlikely collaboration it
                 for a better quality of life for     the urgent need for a spirit of      of the nation address. The             required, across all spheres of
                 global citizens rests on sharing     collaboration and sharing within     divides reflected that day would       our society.
                 our talents, skills, perspectives    and between countries. This is       seem unbridgeable. We have to              It is time again for a radical
                 and means.                           just as true in Europe, where the    demonstrate our resilience and         recommitment from all SA’s
                     At the recent World Econom-      European Union is under con-         guard against focusing too             leaders in government, business
                 ic Forum in Davos, Switzerland,      siderable pressure to balance the    inwardly during this difficult         and civil society to forgo self-
                 the “new global context” framed      needs of its disparate member        phase of development of our            interest for collective wellbeing.
                 the discussions. Rather than         states, as it is in Africa, as its   young democracy, to avoid the          Only from there can we begin
                 merely highlight how connected       characterisation changes in the      weakening of our relative posi-        the delicate and difficult work of
                 the world is becoming, the key       story of global growth.              tion in Africa.                        turning the noble concept of
                 insight in considering this global       Connectivity and collabora-          The message from Davos was         ubuntu into a working reality, of
                 context is how interdependent        tion are obvious corollaries, and    positive: Africa’s attractiveness      once again making collaboration
                 we are as risk and opportunity       it is useful to discuss them in      for increased foreign attention        the hallmark of our leadership
                 globalise.                           concept. The reality, however, is    and capital is undisputed, and         style and the cornerstone of our
                     Countries across the globe,      that historical divisions, nation-   there is a growing understand-         nation’s future. ■
                 developed and developing, are        alistic tendencies, partisan posi-   ing of its vast natural and demo-               Kruger is CEO, MMI Holdings

                                                                                                           February 26 - March 4, 2015        Financial Mail 7
Financial Mail - Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
Financial Mail Page 8-9 -25/02/15 09:43:27 PM

                 FM Overview
                 HIGHLIGHTS & LOWLIGHTS                                                                                                                                        there could be further short- to medium-
                                                                                                                                                                               term windfalls here.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Budget Review notes that real expenditure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  growth over the three-year period will actu-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   much illumination on the energy supply
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   crisis that, some economists believe, could

                 No need to panic . . . yet
                                                                                                                                                                                   However, should SA not find growth             ally be slower than it has been over the past    trip up even pedestrian economic growth
                                                                                                                                                                               traction fairly quickly, there are ominous         three years, though the pace of spending         forecasts for the next few years.
                                                                                                                                                                               references to possible tax changes in the          across platforms will differ.                        He acknowledges that security and
                                                                                                                                                                               medium term outside Nene’s prepared                    Spending growth for social services          reliability of energy supply are primary
                                                                                                                                                                               speech.                                            (social protection, health, basic education      challenges in dealing with structural and
                                                                                                                                                                                   The detailed Budget Review book indicates and local economic development) will                  competitiveness issues hampering produc-
                                                                                                                                                                               that the Davis tax committee, convened by          increase 7,2% over the medium term but           tion and investment in the economy. But the
                                                                                                                                                                               Judge Dennis Davis in 2013, has shown that,        spending on general public services will         budget speech threw no new light on
                 Minister avoids big                                                                                                                                           compared with rates in other countries,
                                                                                                                                                                               there appears to be “some scope” to increase
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  slow to 2,6%.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Still, there will be serious questions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   developments; it simply reiterated the sup-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   port package.
                 shocks but doesn’t                                                                                                                                            taxes on capital income, marginal personal         around the sustainability of the current lev-        Nene was asked at the media briefing to
                                                                                                                                                                               tax income rates and indirect taxes such as        els of government expenditure. Right now,        identify state assets that would be put up for
                 offer much in the                                                                                                                                             fuel levies and value added tax (Vat).             government debt as a percentage of gross         sale to underpin the funding package ear-
                                                                                                                                                                                   National treasury expects reports                                                                       marked for Eskom. He declined to
                 way of nice surprises                                                                                                                                         on the overall tax system — Vat, estate                                                                     offer further detail, explaining that
                                                                                                                                                                               duty, wealth and mining taxes — to be                                                                       national treasury was at an advanced
                 either, writes Marc                                                                                                                                           published soon. These reports will                                                                          stage of leveraging resources. “We
                                                                                                                                                                               inform policy considerations for the                                                                        will only come back to you [with the
                 Hasenfuss                                                                                                                                                     2016 budget, with possibilities around                                                                      detail] once the sale has been con-

                 N
                                                                                                                                                                               Vat probably generating most debate.                                                                        cluded,” he said.
                             ervous discussions around how                                                                                                                     Nene confirmed that national treasury                                                                          In fact, there might have been a
                             an increasingly brittle fiscal foun-                                                                                                              wanted to allow for further consul-                                                                         hint of desperation when Nene reck-
                             dation could possibly sustain a                                                                                                                   tation on Vat.                                                                                              oned the best short-term prospects
                             much heavier debt burden —                                                                                                                            While SA’s 14% Vat rate compares                                                                        for faster growth lay in less energy-
                 especially when private-sector growth                                                                                                                         favourably with that in other countries                                                                     intensive sectors such as tourism,
                 engines lack power — had raised fears of a                                                                                                                    (where rates of over 20% can apply), it                                                                     agriculture, light manufacturing and
                 budget horror show.                                                                                                                                           seems unlikely that Nene will impose                                                                        housing construction. “These are
                     The dreaded “T” word was once again                                                                                                                       a blanket increase in the medium                                                                            sectors that employ more people, and
                 bandied about, possibly the first time in                                                                                                                     term. More likely is a customised                                                                           so they contribute to more inclusive
                 about two decades that South Africans have                                                                                                                    approach: perhaps zero-rating a few                                                                         growth. Efforts to support these sec-
                 seriously fretted about a bigger income tax                                                                                                                   more “essential” household items and                                                                        tors have to be intensified.”
                                                                                                                                                                               targeting luxury goods with higher Vat Dennis Davis

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Business Day
                 burden.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Whether economic hubs outside
                     Thankfully there were no big shocks (or                                                                                                                   levels.                                      His committee showed                                           the local mining sector can drive
                 many pleasant surprises) in the 2015 budget,                                                                                                                      The intimation is that the Davis         some scope for tax hikes                                       growth remains to be seen. But if
                 and finance minister Nhlanhla Nene exuded                                                                                                                     committee report could considerably                                                                         growth does not come, Nene’s grip on

                                                                                                                                                               Trevor Samson
                 a reassuring pragmatism in his maiden                                                                                                                         widen the tax net in the next three                                                                         government expenditure becomes all
                 speech. At the pre-speech media briefing, he       Nhlanhla Nene                                                                                              years if growth remains sluggish. This needs       domestic product (GDP) is shifting uncom-        the more critical when there is unrelenting
                 observed: “The economy has deteriorated            Warning on                                                                                                 to be put in context.                              fortably towards 50%. It was closer to 25%       political pressure to spend.
                 but the fiscal package holds. For that reason      debt ratio                                                                                                     Arguably the most worrying admission in before the global financial crisis of late 2008.            Nene indicated that government pro-
                 there are no surprises.”                                                                                                                                      the Budget Review documents is that debt           So gearing is at levels that are tough to        posed reducing the expenditure ceiling by a
                     The ever-watchful rating agencies, per-                                                                                                                   servicing is the fastest-growing item of           service when the country’s prowess as a          sizeable total of R25bn in the next two years.
                 haps recognising that Nene had little room                                                                                                                    expenditure. Debt servicing has increased at       competitive economy (even with a markedly        He detailed encouraging efforts to cut
                 to manoeuvre, economically or politically,                                                                                                                    an annual average of 10,1% on the back of          weaker rand and a benign inflation environ-      spending on catering, entertainment and
                 will probably be placated, for now.                                                                                                                           increases in government borrowing since            ment) is clearly waning.                         venues by 8%/year, while travel and sub-
                     But perhaps there’s much more that             ably informed by low levels of economic         that are more palatable if taken with the                  2008/2009. This, in turn, reflects govern-             One journalist at the media briefing         sistence will be cut back by 4% annually in
                 could be done (and said) than reinforcing          activity and restrained consumer spending       recent fuel price drops that have resulted                 ment’s growing commitments to local                reminded Nene that his predecessor had           real terms.
                 notions that there is a firm hand holding the      that has hampered growth in many listed         from a weaker crude oil price.                             development and social infrastructure —            “capped” the debt-to-GDP ratio at 38%. The           But there appears to be an escape clause.
                 country’s purse strings.                           companies.                                         These will, along with the traditional “sin             with health expenditure set to top R178bn in       ratio has since moved to 45% and, at the         The budget framework includes an un-
                     It could be argued that Nene needed to            Dividends tax has declined for two con-      tax” increases on alcohol and tobacco, bring               2017/2018 and education R640bn in the next         pre-budget briefing, there was no indication     allocated contingency reserve of R5bn next
                 grasp a few nettles, backing up his call to        secutive years but one hopes any decision       in an additional R8,3bn in 2015/2016 in a                  three years.                                       that a new cap had been set.                     year, followed by R15bn for 2016/2017 and
                 “address economic restraints, improve our          around increasing the current rate will be      relatively painless manner.                                    The cost is punitive, with interest on state       Of course, the elephant in the parlia-       R45bn for 2017/2018.
                 growth performance, create work opportu-           deferred as mining-company profits recover         On the other hand, the proposed tem-                    debt set to jump from R115bn this year to          mentary chamber was Eskom, and it was                This might be deemed a convenient
                 nities and broaden economic participation”.        from the prolonged strike and commodity         porary increase in the electricity levy (from              R153bn in 2017/2018.                               perhaps the one really disappointing aspect      political fall-back, giving government a tap
                     One possible interpretation of the budget      prices firm.                                    3,5c/kWh to 5,5c/kWh) might upset some.                        It’s not as if Nene hasn’t noticed this        of the budget that the problems being faced      that can be turned on to fund whatever it
                 speech might be: “We are not in a panic . . .         The hike in income taxes — which had         There is cold comfort in Nene’s insistence                 alarming pressure point. At the media brief-       by the power utility were not addressed          deems a spending priority.
                 but we might be in a few years if the econ-        not been proposed in the budget for many        that the additional amount will be with-                   ing he conceded that “if we don’t do some-         more frankly and in considerably more                Nene noted the arrangement took into
                 omy does not buck up.”                             years — was largely expected. In truth, the     drawn once the electricity shortage is over.               thing we will be paying more interest than         detail.                                          account the uncertain economic outlook
                     Investors will breathe an initial sigh of      quantum of the increase (one percentage            It’s also worth noting that mining and                  social grants by 2016”.                                There is already a grudging admission in     and the fact that weaker growth and rising
                 relief that there was no increase in corporate     point for all taxpayers earning more than       petroleum royalty revenues rose sharply                        In this scenario, one has to realise that      the public sector that Eskom will not be a       interest rates were possible. He added,
                 taxes. Neither was there — as some stock-          R181 900/year) is far less than anticipated.    when production was resumed after the                      consolidated government expenditure is             quick fix, and it may take up to five years to   perhaps ominously, that national treasury
                 brokers had feared — a hike in the unpopu-            Another smart tax initiative was to hike     prolonged platinum mining strike. As profit-               projected to grow by 7,9% from R1,24 trillion      restore the electricity supply to acceptable     was also mindful that public service salary
                 lar tax on dividends. The decision around          the general fuel levy by 30,5c/l and the Road   able production increases in conjunction                   in 2015/2016 to R1,56 trillion in 2017/2018.       levels.                                          negotiations still needed to be concluded. ■
                 corporate and dividends tax was presum-            Accident Fund levy by 50c/l — measures          with potentially higher commodity prices,                  This is 2,3%/year ahead of inflation. But the          Nene’s references to Eskom won’t offer                                 hasenfussm@fm.co.za

                 8 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015                                                                                                                                                                                                            February 26 - March 4, 2015       Financial Mail 9
Financial Mail - Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
Financial Mail Page 10-11 -25/02/15 11:11:44 PM

                 FM Overview
                 POLITICAL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                   the ANC. But this lack of consensus on an
                                                                                                                                                                      economic plan that will speed up trans-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        by the increase in electricity and fuel levies,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        which will add to the cost of doing business.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          cially given government’s need to placate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          public-sector employees ahead of the 2016

                 Unconvincing
                                                                                                                                                                      formation without harming production and             DA parliamentary leader Mmusi                  municipal election. Public-sector wages
                                                                                                                                                                      investment is not limited to the ANC              Maimane does not believe Nene’s budget            have been increasing along with the coun-
                                                                                                                                                                      alliance. It extends to Zuma’s cabinet. And       does enough to encourage people to start          try’s deficit. They now consume 12% of GDP
                                                                                                                                                                      no-one is confident that the domestic obsta-      small businesses, so critical to job creation.    and 34% of government’s total expenditure.
                                                                                                                                                                      cles to growth will be dealt with, as Nene        “The budget is a call for taxpayers to pay            The wage bill in provincial departments
                                                                                                                                                                      says they must be. For example, the Budget        government more while it goes about doing         is the largest component of spending, at 77%,
                                                                                                                                                                      Review documents call for the regulatory          more of the same,” Maimane says.                  and yet the vacancy rate in provinces high-
                                                                                                                                                                      burden on business to be eased in order to           Nene’s plan for economic rehabilitation        lights how provincial departments, which

                                                                                                                          Sowetan
                                                                                                                             Korea and Singapore because it was       attract investment:                               hinges on structural reform — away from           spend 43% of the national budget, are bat-
                                                                                                                             implemented by strong, visionary             “Restoring confidence in the future           consumption- to investment-led growth.            tling with too few skills. While this under-
                                                                                                                             leaders,” says UCT political scientist   growth of the economy is the key to unlock-       Achieving this depends on business, labour        mines service delivery, national treasury
                                                                                                                             Zwelethu Jolobe.                         ing the long-term investment commitment           and government agreeing to and rallying           continues trying to find creative ways of
                                                                                                                                It’s true that the fiscal package     of private funds,” reads the Budget Review,       behind a single plan; it also depends on an       ensuring that the provinces spend money on
                                                                                                                             Nene presented in response to the        which says the regulatory burden on busi-         efficient, cost-effective state.                  policy priorities without threatening their
                                                                                                                             difficult economic predicament SA        ness is receiving attention.                         The public-sector wage negotiations, now       independence.
                                                                                                                             finds itself in hasn’t changed sig-          Nene says government is reconsidering         on the go, will be the first test of how              Meanwhile, Nene has budgeted for a 6,6%
                                                                                                                             nificantly from the one he present-      the implications the stricter visa regulations    seriously Nene’s budget will be taken, espe-      increase for all civil servants. The public
                                                                                                                             ed in his medium-term budget last        will have on tourism. But this begs the ques-                                                       servants, however, are demanding 15%. They

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ‘‘
                                                                                                                             October. National treasury hopes         tion of how the regulations were adopted by                                                         do not appear to have any sympathy for the
                                                                                                                             that this consistency and predict-       cabinet in the first place if all the ministers                                                     predicament Nene is trying to negotiate the
                                                                                                                             ability will keep the ratings agencies   were on the same page about growing the                                                             economy out of.
                                                                                                                             from downgrading SA’s credit rating      economy and attracting investment.                                                                      “Though we are also going to try to pro-
                                                                                                                             again. In the past year Standard &           It is unclear what government’s recon-                                                          tect the buying power of public servants, we
                                                                                                                             Poor’s downgraded SA’s sovereign         sideration of the visa requirements will                                                            also have a demand of productivity [from
                                                                                                                             credit rating to just above junk sta-    bring, especially since home affairs minister
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 IT IS A CALL FOR                         them]. I am convinced that whatever it is

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                TAXPAYERS TO PAY
                                                                                                                             tus and Fitch adjusted SA’s outlook      Malusi Gigaba has stated that they will not                                                         that happens [in wage negotiations] it should
                                                                                                                             to negative.                             be reviewed. The political reality for Nene is                                                      not affect the deficit and what we have
                  Public service sector union march
                  Demanding higher wages
                                                                                                                                But predictable numbers and a
                                                                                                                             transparent budget process may no
                                                                                                                                                                      that this and other significant changes to the
                                                                                                                                                                      regulatory environment could be difficult,            GOVERNMENT MORE WHILE                         allocated,” Nene told journalists in a pre-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          budget briefing, where he was asked about
                                                                                                                             longer be enough to convince
                                                                                                                             ratings agencies and investors. They
                                                                                                                                                                      considering that Gigaba and other ministers
                                                                                                                                                                      in charge of economic development and                   IT GOES ABOUT DOING                         the impact of another public-sector strike if
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          government failed to come up with a satis-

                 Intended to stabilise public finances, the
                                                                                                                             want to know that government has
                                                                                                                   a bigger plan to implement policies that will
                                                                                                                                                                      trade are champions of more interventionist
                                                                                                                                                                      policy and regulation rather than less.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               MORE OF THE SAME                           factory offer.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nene’s call for more productivity from a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        MMUSI MAIMANE
                                                                                                                   improve government efficiency and                      Also, Nene’s call for the regulatory bur-                                                       better-skilled civil service is a call that has
                 budget does not bolster confidence that                                                           accountability and, ultimately, contain costs      den on business to be eased is contradicted                                                         been made since Zuma came to office. A
                                                                                                                   and encourage investment and growth. Nene
                 domestic obstacles to growth will be dealt                                                        says there is one.
                                                                                                                                                                      State of the nation debate
                                                                                                                      “We have agreed on a National Develop-
                 with, writes Troye Lund                                                                           ment Plan (NDP). But there is still hard work
                                                                                                                   ahead of its implementation,” Nene told a

                 F
                                                                                                                   joint sitting of parliament before tabling his
                           inance minister Nhlanhla Nene’s       WHAT IT          calls for cost cutting but       budget.
                           2015 budget is a pragmatic bid to
                           shore up confidence in govern-        MEANS            does not draw a line in the
                                                                                  sand about bailing out
                                                                                                                      The first obstacle to implementing the
                                                                                                                   NDP is that there is no consensus on it in
                           ment’s ability to manage the eco-
                 nomy responsibly. It’s presented in the
                                                                 FISCAL PACKAGE state-owned       enterprises.
                                                                                  Nor does Nene’s budget give
                                                                                                                   the ANC alliance. As Nene prepared to
                                                                                                                   deliver his maiden budget speech, Cosatu
                 name of stabilising public finances, repaying   NOT              the sense that it is a plan      members filled the streets outside parlia-
                 debt, cutting government spending and           CHANGED FROM driven by Zuma, his cabinet          ment protesting against unemployment and
                 building fiscal space. The matter-of-fact       MEDIUM TERM and the ANC alliance                  low wages. The union is opposed to the
                 plan lists the domestic obstacles to growth
                 and blames them for the steady economic
                                                                 EXPENDITURE      urgently rallying round to
                                                                                  rescue the economy and
                                                                                                                   NDP’s core proposals to grow the economy.
                                                                                                                   Cosatu is demanding that government
                 decline since President Jacob Zuma began        FRAMEWORK        create jobs.                     increase spending — rather than cut it, as
                 his first term in 2009, promising “radical
                 economic transformation”.
                                                                 MUCH STILL TO challenges
                                                                                      “There are two main
                                                                                               the ANC is fac-
                                                                                                                   Nene’s budget does — to help create more
                                                                                                                   jobs and lower poverty and inequality.
                    The ANC is paying the price for this.        DO BEFORE        ing. It is suffering from an        “We are following European and IMF
                 Opposition is increasing, especially at local   IMPLEMENTATION instability of ideas. It is also   austerity policies, which have only plunged

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Siyasanga Mbambani/DOC
                 government level. The party is in danger of     OF NDP           not convinced by the ideas       Europe deeper into crisis, where we should
                 losing ground, if not another metropolitan                       it does have. For example,       be following the US stimulus approach,
                 government in the 2016 municipal election.                       the concept of the develop-      which is leading to recovery of their eco-
                 And though Nene’s budget acknowledges           mental state is poorly articulated and poorly     nomy,” Cosatu said in a statement.
                 the impediments to economic growth, it          implemented. This is because Zuma is not a           Cosatu leaders say that the brand of fiscal
                 doesn’t acknowledge the political environ-      big vision person. This concept was imple-        policy government is promoting makes
                 ment in which these have to be resolved. It     mented successfully in countries like South       workers question why they keep supporting

                 10 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015                                                                                                                                                                                                 February 26 - March 4, 2015       Financial Mail 11
Financial Mail - Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
Financial Mail Page 12 -25/02/15 11:11:56 PM

                 FM Overview
                 properly functioning education sector is                                                                                    increase investor interest and

                                                                      Russell Roberts
                 critical for improving the country’s skills,                                                                                employment prospects in
                 which, in turn, are critical to economic                                                                                    these areas.
                 growth and job creation.                                                                                                       One of the main themes of
                     “Unemployment remains our single                                                                                        Nene’s budget is stabilising
                 greatest economic and social challenge,”                                                                                    state finances by cost cutting.
                 Nene told parliament before pointing out                                                                                    He announced a plan to
                 that he had continued the trend of allocating                                                                               reduce the main budget
                 the lion’s share of the budget to education —                                                                               expenditure ceiling by R25bn
                 R640bn over three years. Though these allo-                                                                                 over the next two years, but
                 cations have expanded access to education                                                                                   did not single out state-
                 dramatically over the past 20 years, govern-                                                                                owned enterprises for the
                 ment admits that the quality of teaching is a                                                                               regular bailouts they require,
                 concern. In his budget Nene says the num-                                                                                   as he did in October last year
                 ber of qualified teachers entering the public                                                                               during his medium-term
                 service will increase from 8 227 in 2012/2013                                                                               budget.
                 to 10 200 in 2017/2018.                                                                                                        Nene confirmed that
                     Though an additional R3,1bn will be allo-           Zwelethu Jolobe                                                     Eskom would be getting a
                 cated to support teacher training, Zuma’s                                                                                   R23bn bailout, but assured
                 state of the nation speech and Nene’s budget            Zuma is not a                                                       investors that further fiscal
                 are silent on measuring performance and                 big vision person                                                   support to state-owned com-
                 linking salaries to performance. There is no                                                                                panies would be “financed
                 move to demand better-quality teaching or                                                                                   through offsetting asset sales
                 limit the powers of teachers’ unions to dis-          promises about creating jobs. SA now has            so that there is no net impact on the budget
                 rupt education.                                       the third-highest unemployment rate in              deficit”. Though he did not advance that
                     These are concepts that the SA Demo-              Africa, but Nene’s budget provides no new           thinking, it is a proposal that will meet with
                 cratic Teachers Union, which is the coun-             solutions for unemployment, especially              opposition from ministers and party leaders
                 try’s largest teachers’ union and a Cosatu            youth unemployment. The budget                      who will see it as privatisation.
                 affiliate, is opposed to.                             announces that the Jobs Fund will spend                 Aside from departments having to do
                     Despite treasury’s acknowledgment that            R4bn on encouraging new employment and              more with less, treasury hopes its recent
                 the education system is not producing the             that government’s extended public works             review of supply chain management will
                 levels of education and skills that the eco-          programmes, which provide relief for the            reduce wastage and corruption. From Jan-
                 nomy so desperately needs, and despite his            unemployed rather then permanent jobs,              uary next year, for example, all schoolbook
                 acknowledgement that unemployment is                  will be extended by 21%/year.                       contracts will go through a central contract,
                 the economy’s “biggest challenge”, Nene’s                  Given SA’s electricity constraints and its     and school building plans will be standard-
                 budget steers clear of making sweeping                unskilled workforce, Nene says government           ised. From April, there will be a centralised
                                                                                             will also intensify job-      government supplier database with suppli-

                   EXPENDITURE GROWTH                                                        creating efforts in sectors
                                                                                             that require less energy
                                                                                                                           ers needing to register just once, and all IT
                                                                                                                           contracts will run through the State Infor-
                   Nominal expenditure growth by function                                    and can absorb more           mation Technology Agency.
                                                                                             unskilled workers.                Nene has promised tighter controls on
                                      Next three years:   Last three years:                      “Over the next several    government spending on goods and services,
                                      2014/15 - 2017/18   2011/12 - 2014/15                  years the sectors best        as well as hotel accommodation, flights
                                                                                             placed to thrive and          and meals. He also wants accounting officers
                                                                                             create jobs include           in government departments to be held liable
                               Debt-service cost                                             tourism, agriculture,         for mismanaging public funds. The Public
                                                                       10.1
                                                                                             agriprocessing, light         Finance Management Act already allows for
                   Local economic development                                                manufacturing and ser-        accounting officers to be held personally
                       and social infrastructure                 8.2
                                                                                             vices like business pro-      liable for state funds they manage negli-
                                     Post-school
                          education and training              7.1                            cess outsourcing,” say        gently. But this isn’t enforced because par-
                                                                                             supporting budget             liament hasn’t held officials in government
                                          Health                                             documents.                    departments and state-owned enterprises to
                                                              7.1
                                                                                                 These sectors were        account as it should, especially if they are
                                Social protection             7.0                            highlighted as priority       political deployees and senior members of
                                                                                             job creation areas in pre-    the ruling party.
                                 Basic education            6.3                              vious budgets, but Nene           Though Nene’s budget highlights stronger
                                                                                             gave no details of plans      oversight by parliament as key to an effi-
                                Economic affairs
                                                           6.0                               to overcome policy            cient state, better planning and implemen-
                                 Defence, public                                             uncertainty in these sec-     tation, the ANC majority in parliament has
                                order and safety          5.7                                tors, such as a cap on        been more focused on protecting the presi-
                          General public services                                            land ownership. Nor did       dent and other ANC leaders in his cabinet
                                                      2.6                                    he suggest that govern-       than monitoring how government is imple-
                                                 0         5               10            15 ment was considering           menting economic policy and managing
                  SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY                   % growth                       any labour-market             public funds. ■
                                                                                             reforms which would                                             lundt@fm.co.za

                 12 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015
Financial Mail - Momentum Metropolitan Holdings
Financial Mail Page 13 -25/02/15 10:25:29 PM

                 FM Opinion
                 Blum Khan

                 Continental opportunities
                 Africa’s impressive willingness to adopt new technologies
                 offers exciting prospects for smart product solutions

                 C
                            arefully researched and targeted                                are working closely with major        that unite us and spend less time
                                                                                            mobile phone network opera-           on that which divides us. The
                            expansion into African markets                                  tors to bring financial services to   future lies in finding solutions
                            is a strategic and transactional                                the market via this channel,          which draw on our combined
                            necessity for SA’s long-term                                    which has revolutionised com-         learning.
                                                                                            munications and service deliv-           The challenges of multiple
                            insurers and asset managers as                                  ery across Africa.                    regulatory environments, differ-
                 the continent’s population, living standards                                  There is a great opportunity       ent currencies, distribution
                                                                                            through understanding local           capacity, skills availability and
                 and demand for financial services continue                                 customer needs and market             low financial services penetra-
                 to grow strongly. It makes good business                                   insights to inform how we apply       tion have to be tackled.
                                                                                            our vast experience, capability          Accepting there is no one-
                 sense for SA financial services companies                                  and intellectual property to          size-fits-all model is a big step;
                                                                                            deliver market-leading products.      the next is to analyse individual
                 to maximise opportunities for        itants are 19 or younger, in sharp    We must increasingly collabo-         markets, understand client
                 collaboration, connectedness         contrast to the developed world,      rate with stakeholders to derive      needs and develop appropriate
                 and growth across the length         where ageing populations are          mutual benefit from business,         propositions to meet them.
                 and breadth of the continent.        the norm.                             cultural and personal relation-          Significantly, Africa’s willing-
                    Africa provides a natural             Financial inclusion policy ini-   ships and grow the continent as       ness to adopt new technologies
                 market because of its geographi-     tiatives are driving some of the      a global player.                      — in some cases quicker than SA
                 cal proximity, but also due to its   changes and creating opportu-            While Africa offers undoubt-       — offers exciting learning
                 exciting economic growth rates       nities. In sub-Saharan Africa, for    ed growth potential, it also poses    opportunities and prospects for
                 and population dynamics. By          example, it is estimated that         challenges and obstacles to           smart product solutions.
                 properly growing their footprint     only 24% of adults have a bank        overcome.                                However, whatever markets
                 in product and service offerings     account, despite the strong              Having operated in the             we are interested in require a
                 in various countries, SA com-        growth of the banking sector in       Southern African Development          structured process of research
                 panies can benefit from these        recent years. There is no doubt       Community for more than a             and market segmentation as a
                 growth rates, contribute to          Africa presents an opportunity        decade, we have an established        prelude to any market penetra-
                 Africa’s development and             for SA companies to diversify         base from which to grow. We           tion.
                 improve SA’s balance sheet.          earnings and develop growth           must now move up another gear            The time is ripe for SA to
                    At the end of 2014 there          markets for the future.               and embrace the diversity the         become much more connected
                 were 1,1bn people living in 54           MMI’s measured approach to        continent offers. This includes       with the rest of Africa and to
                 sovereign states, nine territories   expansion in Africa is about          cultural nuances, language and        build on the common threads,
                 and two de facto independent         growth, diversification of rev-       in-country realities.                 hopes and ambitions that bind
                 states in Africa. That number is     enue and taking our intellectual         We must appreciate that we         us together. ■
                 expected to double before 2050.      property and capabilities into        have a common objective to                Khan is CEO of MMI’s International
                 What’s more, 50% of the inhab-       these exciting new markets. We        uplift Africa, to find the areas                                    Division

                                                                                                          February 26 - March 4, 2015        Financial Mail 13
Financial Mail Page 14-15 -25/02/15 11:59:05 PM

                 FM Overview
                 QUESTIONS & ANSWERS                                                                                                                                             TAX COMPLIANCE                                                                                                                 global, thanks to a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                rapid move towards

                                                                                                                                                                                 Sars to carry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                the exchange of infor-

                 Tax shortfall to be expected
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                mation between
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                national tax authori-

                                                                                                                                                                                 out major
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ties. “Cross border
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                avoidance of tax is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sars’ biggest focus

                                                                                                                                                                                 crackdowns
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                area,” says Dan Foster,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                tax director at Webber
                 SA Revenue Service commissioner Tom Moyane talks to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Wentzel. It is an area
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                in which SA already
                 Stephen Cranston about meeting targets in tough times                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ranks among the top
                                                                                                                                                                                 Finance minister Nhlanhla Nene’s budget                                                                                        50 countries in terms
                                                                                                                                                                                 speech — brief and to the point — fills a                                                                                      of mutual assistance

                                                                                                                      Trevor Samson
                 There was a shortfall in revenue last year.                                                                          of shopping malls to attract some of the   mere 22 pages. But the budget he delivered                                                                                     on tax issues, he says.
                 Are you disappointed by this?                                                                                        22m taxpayers who do not have a com-       has far broader ramifications — not least of                                                                                      The noose is getting
                 Yes, tax revenue of R979bn was R14,7bn                                                                               puter. We need to be accessible to         these is the mounting pressure faced by the                                                                                    tighter. Foster foresees
                 less than the budget estimate. But as the                                                                            everyone.                                  SA Revenue Service (Sars) to rake in every                                                                                     automatic exchange of
                 minister [Nhlanhla Nene] said, it was                                                                                                                           cent of revenue it can to bridge govern-                                                                                       information globally
                 against the backdrop of difficult eco-                                                                   You have started your time as                          ment’s revenue gap.                                                                                                            becoming a reality as
                 nomic conditions.                                                                                        commissioner during a period when there                    In a flagging economy Sars faces a daunt-                                                                                  soon as 2017. “There
                    What were we capable of collecting                                                                    has been negative publicity about a                    ing task. Preliminary figures for fiscal                                                                                       will be no more secret
                 in those circumstances? Personal                                                                         number of senior Sars officials. Does this             2014/2015 reflect this clearly with, unchar-                                                                                   bank accounts,” he
                 income tax was robust but just think                                                                     trouble you?                                           acteristically, Sars’ tax collections falling                                                                                  says.
                 about the effect of electricity load-shed-                                                               I would be the wrong kind of leader if I               R14,7bn below the original budget estimate.                                                                                       The pace at which
                 ding alone on corporate tax. If a mine                                                                   dismissed the allegations. It would not                Even the reduced target set out in the Octo-                                                                                   the international
                 was well managed, it would have diesel                                                                   augur well if I put my head in the sand.               ber medium-term budget review proved too                                                                                       clampdown on HNW
                 generators as a back-up against load-                                                                    I need to be firm but fair. It is impor-               high. The revised tax collection figure is                                                                                     tax evaders is pro-
                 shedding, but that would increase its                                                                    tant to know that the minister of                      predicted to be R4,6bn short.                                                                                                  ceeding, Foster says, is
                 costs. Others might have lost whole                                                                      finance and I speak with one voice in                      More than ever, the pressure is on                                                                                         vividly illustrated by
                 shifts’ production.                                                                                      this matter.                                           extracting tax from the small base of indi-                                                                                    the storm of contro-
                    As Sars, at the end of the value chain,                                                                  I am very pleased that the minister                 vidual taxpayers. Their contribution to the                                                                                    versy UK bank HSBC
                 there is little we can do if production                                                                  has set up an advisory committee                       fiscus is budgeted to increase from 33,8% of                                                                    Dan Foster has found itself in.
                 and profit have been hit. We aren’t in the                                                               under retired judge Frank Kroon to                     total revenue in 2014/2015 to 36,4% in the                                                  Clampdown on high-net worth           At the centre of the
                 good old days when the world economy                                                                     guide the long-term strategy at Sars.                  upcoming fiscal year.                                                                          tax evaders is on the cards     storm   is a disclosure
                 was strong and commodities were                                                                             It aims to ensure that decisions                        It is little surprise that Sars is turning up                                                                              that HSBC’s Swiss pri-
                 booming. But with GDP being revised                                                                      about our operations, personnel, budget                the heat on errant taxpayers. “Sars is tight-                                                                                  vate bank aided hun-
                 up, we will have a better chance of                                                                      and technology support our long-term                   ening up a lot on collections, and penalties                                                                                   dreds of clients in
                 meeting our targets.                                                                                     plans. The committee will review the                   are high,” says Mike Dingley, national head             Sars does not even have to go through a       evading tax authorities in their home coun-
                                                                                                                          events that have been reported by the                  of tax at Mazars. “In some respects you             lengthy court process. All that is required,      tries.
                 Will you be tougher on collections?                                                                      media in recent months and will advise                 could say its approach is almost Draconian.”        says Dingley, is for a senior Sars official to        The revelation came thanks to a list of
                 Of course we won’t tolerate people who                                                                   us on the best way to prevent this kind                    Backing Sars in its bid to extract the last     declare that a sum is owed and a magistrate       names extracted from secret files released
                 can pay tax but refuse to do so. They will       ticularly pleased that the proportion of tax-     of thing occurring again.                                    drop of tax is the Tax Administration Act. “It      will rubber stamp a court order. Collection       by the International Consortium of Inves-
                 feel the full might of Sars falling on them.     payers submitting returns on time increased                                                                    is a strong piece of legislation,” says Dingley.    of the debt is as simple as an instruction to     tigative Journalists in February. “There are a
                 We are finding that we receive fewer sub-        from 91,5% to 94,5%.                              Are you comfortable with your mandate at                     “It is so strong it is almost frightening.”         the taxpayer’s bank.                              few South African names on the list,” says
                 missions from previous years: 1,02m in the                                                         Sars?                                                            Even a minnow taxpayer assessed as                  But for Sars the really sought-after prize    Foster.
                 last tax year, which was 34% less than in        The minister talked about potential cutbacks in   We have a very simple objective: the effi-                   owing Sars a small amount is in the firing          in its crackdown on tax evaders are the big           Cross-border tax avoidance is far from a
                 2013 as the number of late submitters con-       the public service. Will Sars be cutting back?    cient and effective collection of revenue. We                line. “If you do not ask for a suspension of        fish: high-net worth (HNW) individuals. “A        pursuit confined to HNW individuals. Multi-
                 tinues to fall. This is an encouraging indi-     We do not have a programme of shedding            also provide protection against the illegal                  payment, Sars will slap you with a court            large number of HNW individuals are               national companies also play the avoidance
                 cator that the administrative penalties          jobs but we are going through a transfor-         import and export of goods, facilitate trade                 order in 10 days,” he says.                         underdeclaring their income and their use         game through profit shifting to the most
                 imposed for outstanding returns have             mation programme to review our operating          and advise the minister of finance on all                                                                        of trusts as a means to evade tax,” notes Sars    beneficial tax jurisdictions, with the resul-
                 improved compliance levels. Defaulting tax-      model and see how we can be as modern in          revenue matters. We are also governed by                                                                         in its three-year strategy review.                tant loss of tax income (base erosion) by
                 payers paid us R436m in penalties last year.     other parts of our IT and operations as we
                                                                  are with e-filing.
                                                                                                                    the values in the constitution which govern
                                                                                                                    public administration, such as the need to
                                                                                                                                                                                  MAJOR INCENTIVE PROGRAMMES                             “Sars has established a dedicated unit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     focused on HNW individuals,” says Eugene
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       countries where they earn the profit.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Hogan Lovells head of tax Ernie Lai King
                 Do you believe Sars is a service-orientated         I also want Sars employees to feel             maintain a high standard of professional                      Three fiscal years to March 2018                   du Plessis, head of tax at Grant Thornton         tells the Financial Mail that anti-avoidance
                 organisation?                                    empowered: they must be treated with              ethics, be impartial, and offer a fair service                                                                   Johannesburg.                                     measures to counter base erosion and profit
                                                                                                                                                                                      Department                        Rm
                 I think the huge success of e-filing counts in   respect and then they will treat the public       without bias.                                                                                                        Weapons at Sars’ disposal include audit-      shifting by multinationals is the new battle
                 our favour. An amazing 99,91% of returns         with respect.                                         We are also expected to foster trans-                    Science & technology                  21 400        ing tax returns and lifestyle risk profiling of   ground for corporate tax.
                 were submitted electronically and 94,98% of         I would like to see a one-stop approach: a     parency by providing the public with timely,                 Trade & industry                      17 200        individuals. Adding to its armoury is another         As a G20 member state, SA has been at
                 returns were assessed in three seconds           taxpayer who runs a small business should         accessible and accurate information. And in                  Agriculture, forestry & fishing         7 210       new special unit focused exclusively on pro- the forefront of co-operation on combating
                 while 98% of refunds were paid within 72         be able to deal with his Vat issues at the        all our interactions we must recognise the                   Small business development              2 915       visional tax submissions,” says Du Plessis.       base erosion & profit shifting (BEPS) since
                 hours.                                           same place as personal tax, but often the         rights of taxpayers, traders and Sars employ-                                                                    “Sars has raked in billions of rand more          the formation in July 2013 of the BEPS
                                                                                                                                                                                 Tourism                                  557
                     Tax refunds of R15,2bn were paid to 2,1m     two places are 5 km-10 km apart.                  ees to just administrative action and access                                                                     through this initiative.”                         action plan under the auspices of the Organ-
                                                                                                                                                                                 SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY
                 taxpayers in the 2014 tax year. I am par-           I would also like to make much more use        to information. ■                                                                                                    Sars’ reach is also becoming increasingly     isation for Economic Co-operation & Devel-

                 14 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015                                                                                                                                                                                                               February 26 - March 4, 2015        Financial Mail 15
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