George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement
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George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement Transport Report
George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning Agreement
Transport Report
JMP Consultants Limited
250 West George Street
Glasgow
G2 4QY
T 0141 221 4030
F 0800 066 4367
E glasgow@jmp.co.uk
www.jmp.co.uk
Job No. SCT3445
Report No. 1
Prepared by K Clarke / J Green
Verified KC
Approved by KC
Status Final
Issue No. 4
Date 02 May 2014
George Best Belfast City Airport Modification to Planning Agreement Transport Report Contents Amendments Record This document has been issued and amended as follows: Status/Revision Revision description Issue Number Approved By Date Draft 1 KC 15/10/2013 Draft Client Review 2 KC 15/11/2013 Final Legal Review 3 KC 05/12/2013 Final Representation Response 4 KC 02/05/2014
Contents
1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1
2 PLANNING CONTEXT .......................................................................................................... 3
Policy and Guidance .............................................................................................................. 3
Planning Policy Statements ................................................................................................... 3
Transport Assessment- Guidelines for Development Proposals in Northern Ireland ................ 4
3 EXISTING SITUATION .......................................................................................................... 5
Walking ................................................................................................................................. 5
Cycling .................................................................................................................................. 6
Public Transport .................................................................................................................... 7
Adjacent Highway Network .................................................................................................... 7
Existing Airport Car Parking Arrangements ............................................................................ 9
Passenger Movements ........................................................................................................ 10
4 DEVELOPMENT TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................. 12
Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 12
Survey Data......................................................................................................................... 15
Vehicle Trip Distribution ....................................................................................................... 17
Traffic Growth ...................................................................................................................... 17
Committed Developments .................................................................................................... 18
Airport Vehicle Trip Generation ............................................................................................ 19
Scenario Trip Generation Comparison ................................................................................. 24
Parking ................................................................................................................................ 25
Existing Parking Situation .................................................................................................... 25
Future Parking ..................................................................................................................... 26
5 TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT ...................................................................................... 28
Background ......................................................................................................................... 28
Base Paramics Results ........................................................................................................ 29
Mitigation Measures............................................................................................................. 32
Mitigation Paramics Results ................................................................................................. 32
Preliminary Design of Identified Physical Mitigation .............................................................. 34
6 PROPOSED SUPPORTING TRANSPORT MEASURES ..................................................... 36
Travel Plan .......................................................................................................................... 36
Walking and Cycling ............................................................................................................ 36
Public Transport .................................................................................................................. 37
Parking Provision................................................................................................................. 38
Access................................................................................................................................. 38
7 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 40
Tables and Figures Table 3.1 Parking Capacity ......................................................................................................... 10 Table 4.1 Airport Related Percentage Mode Share ...................................................................... 13 Table 4.2 Traffic Distribution A2 .................................................................................................. 17 Table 4.3 TA Predicted Flows on the A2 ...................................................................................... 18 Table 4.4 Airport Traffic Flows (Two-Way) ................................................................................... 24 Table 4.5 Scenario Comparison (Two-Way Airport Traffic Flows) ................................................ 24 Table 4.6 Existing April Car Parking Usage ................................................................................. 26 Table 4.7 Existing July Car Parking Usage .................................................................................. 26 Table 4.8 Future with Modification (without SFS) Parking Demand .............................................. 27 Table 5.1 GB BCA Paramics Network Summary Results ............................................................. 30 Table 5.2 GB BCA Paramics Network Summary Results (AM Peak) ............................................ 30 Table 5.3 GB BCA Paramics Network Summary Results (PM Peak) ............................................ 30 Table 6.1 IHT Guidelines - Suggested Acceptable Walking Distance ........................................... 37 Table 6.2 Walk and Cycle Time by Distance ................................................................................ 37 Table 6.3 Car Parking Changes .................................................................................................. 38 Figure 1.1 Location of GB BCA .....................................................................................................1 Figure 3.1 Site Location ................................................................................................................5 Figure 3.2 Footway along A2 and pedestrian bridge connecting to Sydenham station ....................6 Figure 3.3 Cycleway on A2............................................................................................................6 Figure 3.4 Vehicle Access to GB BCA (From North) ......................................................................7 Figure 3.5 Vehicle Access to GB BCA (From South)......................................................................8 Figure 3.6 GB BCA Car Parks .......................................................................................................9 Figure 3.7 April and July Passenger Movements ......................................................................... 11 Figure 4.1 JTC Survey Locations................................................................................................. 16 Figure 4.2 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Base Scenario......................................... 20 Figure 4.3 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Base Scenario ................................ 20 Figure 4.4 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Without Modification ................................ 21 Figure 4.5 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Without Modification Scenario......... 22 Figure 4.6 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: With Modification ..................................... 23 Figure 4.7 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: With Modification ............................ 23 Figure 4.8 Comparison of Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GBBCA .................................. 24 Figure 5.1 PARAMICS Model Extent ........................................................................................... 28 Figure 5.2 Travel Time Results for A2 Northbound ...................................................................... 31 Figure 5.3 Travel Time Results for A2 Southbound ...................................................................... 32 Figure 5.4 Travel Time Results for Mitigation Measures on A2 Northbound ................................. 33 Figure 5.5 Travel Time Results for Mitigation Measures on A2 Southbound ................................. 34 Figure 5.6 Preliminary Design ..................................................................................................... 35
Appendices APPENDIX A Engagement with DRD Roads Service / Amey APPENDIX B Traffic Survey Data APPENDIX C Validation of Assumptions APPENDIX D Network Diagrams APPENDIX E Parking APPENDIX F A2 & NRTF Analysis APPENDIX G Committed Developments APPENDIX H Scenario Analysis APPENDIX I Flight Schedules APPENDIX J AM & PM 3 Hour Modelling Periods APPENDIX K Paramics Modelling APPENDIX L Preliminary Design APPENDIX M Flow Charts APPENDIX N Accident Data
1 Introduction
1.1 JMP Consultants Ltd (JMP) has been commissioned by George Best Belfast City Airport Limited
(GB BCA) to undertake an assessment of the traffic and transport related effects of an request to
modify the current Planning Agreement in place for the GB BCA (the site). It was considered and
agreed with DoE Planning and DRD Roads Service (RS) that adopting the general format of a
Transport Assessment (TA) would help to inform the public inquiry to be held by the Planning
Appeals Commission (PAC) regarding the transport effects of the proposed modification.
1.2 An environmental statement of the possible environmental implications of the ‘project’ which
derives from the proposed variation (see Chapter 4 of the environmental statement), including
traffic, has been provided which includes commentary on the effects with regard to change in traffic
flows (Chapter 12). The environmental statement is a fundamental element of the assessment of
transport related environmental effects.
1.3 Consultation for the transport element of the analysis has been undertaken with DRD Roads
Service (RS) in relation to the transportation impacts of the proposed modification. This
consultation was in the form of preliminary meetings with RS officers followed by a scoping
exercise culminating in a scoping letter sent to RS and their term consultants Amey. This revised
report seeks to respond to the comments and request for clarification in the “Review of Transport
Assessments” dated March 2014 and prepared by Amey on behalf of RS. In seeking to do so, the
document also responds to representations by other parties. Copies of the exchange of
information between the project team and RS/Amey are included in Appendix A.
Existing Site Operation
1.4 GB BCA currently supports domestic UK and international flights. The airport operation is
regulated by an Article 40 agreement which currently includes a “seats for sale” restriction plus a
restriction on the total number of flights to and from the airport.
1.5 The location of the existing site is shown in Figure 1.1 below.
Figure 1.1 Location of GB BCA
Google
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SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport 1
Modification to Planning AgreementProposed Change to Planning Agreement
1.6 GB BCA are seeking to modify the terms of their current Planning Agreement with the Department
of the Environment (DOE), in the following way:
The removal of the ‘Seats for Sale’ limit;
The introduction of a noise contour control cap on the area falling within the 57dB(A) LAeq 16
Hr contour; and
The introduction of other noise control measures.
1.7 The current agreement also includes a maximum number of aircraft movements in and out of the
site. This limit of 48,000 movements is unaffected by the proposed modification. For the
avoidance of doubt, the existing annual number of aircraft movements is less than the maximum
number permitted under the current planning agreement.
1.8 The proposed modification could impact on traffic generation due to the change in passengers
travelling to and from GB BCA. This report will quantify and assess the potential effects of the
‘project’ (see Chapter 4 of the environmental statement and Section 2 of the addendum), on the
surrounding road network and gives consideration to the sustainable transport network. The
analysis is necessarily calculated on a best estimate basis.
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2 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning Agreement2 Planning Context
Policy and Guidance
2.1 This assessment has generally been undertaken in accordance with the “Transport Assessment –
Guidelines for Development Proposals in Northern Ireland”. This TA guidance is referred to in both
PPS3 and PPS13 and provides a good practice guide for the transport assessment of new
developments. It generally applies to circumstances where planning applications are under
consideration but is used here in the absence of any alternative body of guidance.
2.2 The guidance identifies that where traffic impact is being considered reference should also be
made to the Institution of Highways and Transportation (IHT) publication, “Guidelines for Traffic
Impact Assessment” which will be used in the preparation of such analysis.
2.3 The TA guidance additionally indicates that the environmental impact of development related traffic
should be addressed within supporting transport information. The IHT guidelines provide that the
environmental transport impacts should be assessed in accordance with the Institute of
Environmental Assessment (IEA) publication ‘Guidelines for the Environmental Assessment of
Road Traffic’. The environmental assessment in accordance with the IEA guidelines has been
undertaken in the supporting environmental statement. Chapter 7 of the environmental statement
considers noise impacts and Chapter 8 considers impacts on air and climate (refer to Section 4
(noise) and Section 5 (Air and climate) of the addendum).
2.4 Any infrastructure proposals will be designed in accordance with Development Control Advice Note
(DCAN) 15: “Vehicular Access Standards” and “The Design Manual For Roads and Bridges
(DMRB)”
Planning Policy Statements
2.5 Planning Policy Statements 3 and 13 refer to transport related implications of new developments.
Both documents build on the theme of developing sustainable transport solutions to mitigate
development related transport impacts and are more usually applied in the context of the
determination of planning applications.
2.6 Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) recognises that large travel generating developments require
to be supported by a Transport Assessment report (PPS3, Policy AMP6, “Transport Assessment”)
and for development proposals to be considered within the “context of wider government policy
aimed at achieving more sustainable travel patterns through a change in transport behaviour”.
2.7 Policy AMP 7 indicates that development proposals require adequate provision for car parking and
appropriate servicing arrangements.
2.8 Planning Policy 13 (PPS13) - Integration of Transport and Land-Use Planning also recognises the
requirement for a sustainable transport approach towards assessing and mitigating development
related transport impacts which includes for the provision of measures and support for non private
vehicle modes. It further suggests that a Travel Plan should be a consideration in terms of
assisting mode shift towards the more sustainable modes.
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SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport 3
Modification to Planning AgreementTransport Assessment- Guidelines for Development Proposals in
Northern Ireland
2.9 The “Transport Assessment – Guidelines for Development Proposals in Northern Ireland” (TA
guide, 2006) is referred to by both PPS3 and PPS13 and is intended to provide a good practice
guide for the transport assessment of new developments. As noted above it is generally applicable
in the context of planning applications. The document provides a general guide to transport
assessments and some detailed information on criteria that should be considered. The document
references the IHT report, “Guidelines for Traffic Impact Assessment”, regarding advice on the
assessment of traffic impact.
2.10 The thrust of the NI guidelines is to adopt a sustainable transport approach to supporting new
development proposals. The principle being to ensure that consideration is given to encouraging
changes in travel behaviour to more sustainable transport modes. The TA guide indicates that the
form of measures which should be considered include Travel Plans, financial incentives to
encourage alternative uses, improving walk and cycle infrastructure and more attractive public
transport along with any road improvements required to accommodate residual traffic.
2.11 With regard to traffic impact analysis, paragraph 4.111 of the NI guide sets out the approach to be
adopted. Reference is made to the IHT Guidelines for Traffic Impact Assessment, for best practice
guidance along with notes on some key issues. Of specific interest is the principle for,
“establishing the acceptability of mitigation measures for development impacts will be advised by
Roads Service during scoping discussions”.
2.12 The principle of “no net detriment” remains valid.
2.13 As indicated in the introduction, this planning policy and guidance requires to be interpreted in
terms of this being a proposed modification to a planning agreement which regulates the operation
of an existing development, not with regard to the acceptability of a new development in location or
transport accessibility terms.
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4 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning Agreement3 Existing Situation
3.1 GB BCA is located to the north east of Belfast and is located off the A2 Sydenham Bypass. The A2
connects to Belfast City Centre and further afield via the motorway network at the signalised
junction of Dee Street and to the north via Holywood to Bangor through the Tillysburn junction.
There is excellent vehicular access to the strategic road network providing links to the wider
population within Northern Ireland.
Figure 3.1 Site Location
Google Image
Walking
3.2 Pedestrian access to the site is available from the at-grade junction with the A2 Sydenham Bypass
with walking to the terminal building possible through the car parking areas and utilising a painted
walkway.
3.3 There is a footway along the airport side of the A2 which connects back towards Belfast City
Centre and onward towards Holywood. A pedestrian footbridge, associated with the Sydenham
Rail Halt provides grade separate pedestrian access to the residential area on the south side of the
bypass and railway. The lack of adjacent land uses around the airport and therefore the distance
pedestrians would require to walk to the GB BCA site plus the severance impacts of the A2 dual
carriageway results in a very low overall percentage of walk trips to and from the airport, measured
at around 0.1% (as indicated by Table 4.1) of all movements.
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SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport 5
Modification to Planning AgreementFigure 3.2 Footway along A2 and pedestrian bridge connecting to Sydenham station
Google Image
Cycling
3.4 The A2 includes a cycleway, in both directions, running in the hard shoulder of the road and
adjacent to the airport boundary. Notwithstanding the quality of facilities, cycling to the GB BCA site
represents a lower percentage of all movements than walking.
Figure 3.3 Cycleway on A2
Google Image
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6 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning AgreementPublic Transport
3.5 Translink operate an Airport Express 600 service between BCA and the Europa Buscentre. The
bus has a 20 minute frequency (at peak times) and departs from a bus stop located outside the
terminal building. Details of the service are available at http://www.translink.co.uk.
3.6 A private “Airporter” service to Derry/Londonderry also operates from the front of the terminal with
eleven services per day (on week days).
3.7 Annual travel data (from 2010) indicates that just over 200,000 passengers travelled to and from
the airport by bus (7.6% of all passengers). The proportion of travellers by bus at recognised
commuter peak travel periods was surveyed to be less than 1% (GB BCA travel survey 2010).
3.8 Sydenham Rail Halt is around 800m (10 minutes walk) from the airport terminal building. There is
currently the option of a shuttle bus operating between the station and airport. For the purposes of
this assessment, users of the train halt were recorded as either pedestrians walking from the halt to
the airport or shuttle bus users (i.e. using the shuttle bus to reach the terminal). The walking route
is described above.
Adjacent Highway Network
3.9 The A2 Sydenham Bypass forms the eastern boundary of the Airport site. Vehicular access to the
site is available directly from the A2 via an at-grade traffic signal junction to the south of the main
terminal building. The junction is the main access and supports inbound movements from both the
north (Holywood) and south (Belfast City Centre). The A2 connects to Belfast City Centre and
further afield via the motorway network via the signalised junction at Dee Street and to the north via
Holywood to Bangor through the Tillysburn junction.
Figure 3.4 Vehicle Access to GB BCA (From North)
Google Image
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SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport 7
Modification to Planning AgreementFigure 3.5 Vehicle Access to GB BCA (From South)
Google Image
3.10 Traffic exiting the site at the main access junction is able to join the A2 in the Holywood direction.
Traffic exiting the site in the Belfast bound direction requires to do so through a purpose-built grade
separated underpass connection located to the north of the terminal which provides access directly
onto the A2 southbound carriageway.
3.11 Within the Airport the site access road provides a two-way route between the site access junctions
with the A2. The internal site layout provides a segmented approach to managing each element of
traffic. The southernmost car park is utilised for short stay parking, private car and private taxi
(non-Airport approved) drop-off and pick-up. North of the terminal there is a long stay parking
facility and on-site car hire parking for pick-up and drop-off. The relevance of the segmentation of
vehicles relates to the way in which different user groups use the internal road network.
3.12 With regard to the operation of the road network, the A2 is heavily trafficked in peak periods with
the consequence of long and slow moving platoons of traffic along the route, generally relating to
the current junction operation at the Dee Street and Tillysburn junctions. At the Airport access
junction, city bound traffic is always given priority and therefore no queues form in this location.
With regard to the right turn movement into the Airport, surveys have indicated queues of up to 12
vehicles waiting to turn right into the Airport. In the north down bound direction queues will form
when the right turn traffic signal into the Airport is given priority. However, the queue dissipates
once the priority returns to the main traffic movement.
3.13 While generally this access junction and internal road layout operates within capacity, it is
recognised that there have been incidences where drivers queuing to access the airport have
infrequently delayed other road users.
3.14 This report will assess the appropriateness of the existing transport infrastructure in the context of
the ‘project’ and seek to identify measures, where available, to promote and encourage more
sustainable modes of travel insofar as they are applicable to this particular context.
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8 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning AgreementExisting Airport Car Parking Arrangements
3.15 Figure 3.6 below shows the location of GB BCA car parks in relation to the main airport building.
Figure 3.6 GB BCA Car Parks
GB BCA
Short Stay
3.16 The short stay car park includes 454 car parking spaces, accessed directly from the main spine
road through the site. The access is in the form of a mini-roundabout, giving a high level of priority
to incoming traffic. The car park has 3 entry barriers and 4 exit barriers which are shared with
users of the Pick up / Drop off (PUDO) area. The short stay car park generally has spare parking
capacity.
3.17 The average duration of stay in the short stay car park is around 7 hours 15 minutes excluding
PUDO.
Pick-Up and Drop-Off (PUDO) Area
3.18 The PUDO area shares an entry and exit point with the short stay car park and has a practical
capacity of around 20 vehicles. The PUDO area mostly operates at or around capacity however at
certain points during the day has been recorded as operating above capacity. The vast majority of
passenger vehicles using the PUDO area (90%) will have duration of stay of 10 minutes or less as
the first 10 minutes are free of charge.
Long stay
3.19 The long stay car park includes 1264 car parking spaces. The usage of the long stay car park at
GB BCA fluctuates throughout the year and increases significantly during summer months. The
long stay car park currently operates within capacity but during the summer period in 2013 the
demand for the long stay car park generally operates around or just over capacity.
3.20 The average duration of stay in the car park depends on the season. It is noted that vehicles tend
to stay for longer periods during the summer peak holiday season than during the more business
flight dominant winter period.
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SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport 9
Modification to Planning Agreementth th
3.21 The average duration of stay between Friday 19 and Friday 26 April 2013 (inclusive) was around
30 hours.
3.22 When parking demand is in excess of capacity, GB BCA adopt management measures to
successfully relocate and accommodate that demand. During 2013 such measures were
employed on approximately 5 occasions, all during the July (discussed further in Chapter 4). The
application of these measures ensured that this excessive parking demand was accommodated
on-site.
Staff
3.23 At the time of the parking survey was carried out in April 2013 staff made use of the short stay and
long stay car parks (predominantly short stay). The average duration of stay of staff is
approximately 7.5 hours. Since April 2013, staff members at GB BCA now use a separate car park
to the north-east of the airport building. The removal of staff from the short stay car park means
that parking demand generally operates well within capacity.
3.24 Other non public car park bound vehicles also use the airport access junctions such as delivery
vehicles, contractors and airport taxis. Airport taxis have a drop off / pick up area as close as
possible to the terminal frontage. Other non public car park bound vehicles are generally directed
to a separate car park north-east of the long stay car park.
Fast track, Executive and Car Rental
3.25 As shown by Figure 3.6 there is also a separate Fast Track and Car Rental area. The Fast Track
area can only be used by pre-booking a space and used in conjunction with the Fast Track Annual
Pass. The executive car parking area is also part of the Fast Track car park however cannot be
pre-booked.
3.26 The car rental area is used for storing, pick up and drop off of hired cars by a number of hire
companies which operate at the airport. Table 3.1 below shows the current capacity of the carious
car parks.
Table 3.1 Parking Capacity
Car Park Current Capacity
Short Stay 454
Long Stay 1264
PUDO 20
Fast Track 273
Car Hire (car hire parking and drop off) 379
Staff (within short stay provision) 0
Total 2 390
GB BCA
Passenger Movements
3.27 Baseline surveys of passenger movements have been provided by York Aviation in the form of
annual movements and average daily movements for the busiest month of the year in order to
provide a robust assessment.
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10 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning Agreement3.28 JMP has been provided with details of passenger movements during April, coinciding with the day
on which traffic surveys were undertaken and passenger movements during July, representing a
nd
typical busy day. On 22 April 2013, there were 7,337 two-way passenger movements per day to
and from the site. Similarly, on a typical busy in 2013 there were 9,350 two-way passenger
movements per day. This passenger data was received from York Aviation and GB BCA is
included in Appendix I.
3.29 The assessment of baseline passenger movements has been based on a typical busy day in July
2013. The profile of existing passenger arrivals and departures was provided by York Aviation on
the basis of actual flight schedules and passenger loadings, and is included in Appendix I.
3.30 With regard to passenger travel movements to and from the airport, there is a shift in the pattern of
movement compared with flight times. GB BCA have confirmed that departing passengers
generally arrive at the airport around one hour before flying to allow time to pass through security
and arrive at the gate before departure. Similarly, those arriving at the airport take around 25
minutes after their flight has arrived to get to the landside of the terminal. These parameters will be
taken into account when determining people travel movements to and from GB BCA.
3.31 The Figure 3.7 below shows the total two-way passenger movements (arrivals and departures) on
22nd April 2013 and a typical busy day in July 2013.
Figure 3.7 April and July Passenger Movements
York Aviation and JMP
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SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport 11
Modification to Planning Agreement4 Development Travel Characteristics
4.1 This chapter of the Transport Report (TR) looks in detail at the potential travel characteristics of the
‘project’ including trip generation, modal split and trip distribution.
Methodology
4.2 In order to understand the future potential traffic generation of GB BCA it was necessary to
understand the relationship between current passenger movements, traffic flows in and out of GB
BCA against the operating flight schedule on the day of the surveys. The different stages of the
methodology are summarised in the following paragraphs.
Passenger Movements
4.3 A comparison of existing and future passenger movements against flight schedules was
undertaken which included;
2013 April Scenario;
2013 July Scenario;
2025 July Scenario assuming retention of the seats for sale limit (SFS) (“2025 Without
modification”); and
2025 July Scenario assuming the removal of the SFS limit (“2025 With modification”).
4.4 For each of the passenger scenarios above there has been an application of site arrival and
departure time offset defined in paragraph 3.30 above and of mode share / passengers per vehicle
occupancy factors indicated in Table 4.1 and paragraph 4.14 below. The application of these
factors provided passenger related vehicle movements.
Non Passenger Movements
4.5 There are a series on non passenger related traffic movements associated with the site including
freight, contractor, airport and ancillary employees not accessing public car parks (eg car hire
staff). These are quantifiable in overall terms as the difference between the total traffic entering
and leaving the site (measured during 22nd April surveys) and those accessing public car parks
(measured during week long parking records during April).
Baseline Traffic Data
4.6 In terms of the baseline traffic data, all airport related vehicular movements were removed from the
base counts on the A2. The base traffic on the A2 was then factored to 2025 and 2030 in
agreement with RS before airport and committed development related traffic were added to the
networks.
4.7 This ensured that baseline traffic data on the A2 was representative of the April scenario (neutral
traffic month) whilst the airport related traffic represented the busier summer related airport
movements.
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12 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning AgreementScenarios
4.8 Using the methodology above the following three scenarios were produced:
Traffic movements associated with existing summer schedule;
Traffic movements associated with 2025 Without modification Scenario; and
Traffic movements associated with the ‘project’ or the 2025 With modification Scenario
based on anticipated new schedule.
4.9 The traffic flow scenario for the 2025 With modification Scenario (removal of the SFS limitation) is
based on the potential anticipated traffic flow associated with the ‘project’ in the peak summer flight
scenario and should therefore be considered as the worst case traffic flows in terms of vehicles
accessing and egressing from GB BCA.
4.10 In order to provide a robust traffic assessment the worst case traffic flows generated by GB BCA
during the summer months were analysed against a neutral month (April) flows rather than the
traditionally lower traffic flows during the summer months.
4.11 All the assumptions contained within the methodology were validated using the relationship
between existing traffic movements and passenger information.
Mode Share
4.12 It is recognised that due to the operating nature of the airport the majority of the trips associated
with GB BCA will be via private vehicle, taxi or public transport. In order to determine the mode
split and to provide a baseline level for all modes of transport, manual traffic surveys commissioned
by GB BCA and undertaken in 2008 identified the travel mode of all movements through the airport.
The surveys were undertaken for two hours in the AM and two hours in the PM. The mode share
associated with the AM and PM period is indicated by Table 4.1 below.
Table 4.1 Airport Related Percentage Mode Share
Peak Percentage Mode Share
Car HGV Bus Taxi Coach Bike/M Bike Foot Total
1
AM 85.4% 0% 0.4% 14.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0% 100%
1
PM 76.2% 0% 0.5% 22.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0% 100%
GB BCA Commissioned Person Trip Surveys 2008
Note1 : Minor differences between Table 4.1 and Figure C10 due to rounding differences
4.13 This mode share split has been used to calculate future movements to and from GB BCA in
relation to total passenger numbers. In summary, 99% of movements are made by car or taxi.
Table 4.1 above also indicates that 0.4% and 0.5% of passengers travel to the airport by bus in the
AM and PM peak periods respectively.
4.14 As discussed in Paragraph 3.7, annual travel data associated with the Airport Express 600 and the
Airporter services suggests that approximately 7.6% of GB BCA passengers travel to the airport by
bus. This would result in a lower car / taxi mode share than indicated in Table 4.1. Also it is
understood that the Consumer Council published a research study in May 2010 which included a
survey of passengers’ preferred mode of transport to all airports in Northern Ireland. The study
showed that 8% of passengers take public transport to the airport.
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SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport 13
Modification to Planning Agreement4.15 However, since the GB BCA manual traffic survey from 2008 has indicated a total vehicle mode
share of around 99%, it is appropriate and robust to use this survey to inform the future traffic
impact assessment process. Figure C10 Appendix C includes the results of this survey and
associated analysis to generate Table 4.1.
Passenger Vehicle Occupancy
4.16 It is recognised that not every passenger movement will be in their own private vehicle and that due
to the nature of the operation there will be car and taxi sharing e.g. family trips, travelling with
business colleagues etc. It is recognised, and confirmed by GB BCA, that due to the high
proportion of GB BCA passengers for business purposes average passengers per vehicle
occupancy at the airport is relatively low. GB BCA informed that the average number of airport
passengers per vehicle was 1.59 (1.587).
4.17 In order to validate the accuracy of the passengers per vehicle occupancy figure, GB BCA provided
4 years’ worth of car park booking data (May 2010 – April 2014) for the short stay, long stay and
fast track car parks. The number of passengers associated with each booking was also included to
calculate the average passengers per vehicle occupancy. Analysis of this data indicated that the
average passengers per vehicle occupancy in the car parks in this date range was 1.582 i.e. 0.005
less than what was applied.
4.18 This analysis indicates that the application of an average passengers per vehicle occupancy of
1.59 (1.587) is accurate and that changing the occupancy figure to 1.58 (1.582), will have a
negligible impact on the assessment of future traffic and future parking requirements at GB BCA.
4.19 Further analysis of this data indicates that the average passengers per vehicle occupancy in July
2013 was 1.88. Since the analysis has been based on 1.59 (i.e. lower), this approach is robust in
the assessment of base traffic conditions. Figure C12 in Appendix C includes a summary of the
data used to validate the application of 1.59 passengers per vehicle occupancy to inform the future
traffic impact and parking assessment.
4.20 The data supplied by GB BCA is of sufficient size to provide an accurate representation of the
average passengers per vehicle occupancy at GB BCA.
Methodology Validation
Passenger Movements
4.21 Information provided by GBBCA indicated the following offsets in terms of passenger movements:
Arriving passengers take approximately 25 minutes to leave the airport; and
Departing passengers arrive at the airport 1 hour prior to the scheduled take-off time.
4.22 Using this information and following the analysis of the movement of passengers it indicated that
there is a clear pattern between passenger movements on and off the site and flight patterns.
Appendix C demonstrates the correlation between measured traffic, short stay and long stay
parking movements and calculated passenger vehicle movements based on our assumptions, and
demonstrates that the process which has been applied is valid. This process was carried out on the
nd
flight schedule for Monday 22 April 2013 to allow for a direct comparison with the measured traffic
flows on and off the site.
4.23 It should be noted that a vehicle which has used airport parking at GB BCA will generate one
vehicle trip either in or out of the airport per arrival or departure whereas vehicles utilising the Pick
Up/Drop Off (PUDO) area will generate two trips i.e. one into the site and one out of the site. The
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14 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning Agreementdifferent nature of the trips utilising GB BCA have been factored into the calculated trip
generations.
4.24 Passengers utilising taxis as their mode of transport use either a private taxi or a GB BCA
approved taxi. Private taxis operate in the same manner as PUDO vehicles, i.e. one movement in
and one movement off the site. The airport approved taxis are permitted to wait at the airport taxi
rank to pick up passengers and therefore would only generate one trip. In order to provide a robust
analysis, all taxis have been considered to act as private taxis i.e. generate two trips per visit.
Uplift Factor
4.25 A comparison exercise was carried out on passenger related vehicle movements generated by
nd
applying assumptions described throughout this Chapter on the flight schedule for Monday 22
April 2013 and the measured traffic flows from the same day. This indicated that the application of
these assumptions produced an overall deficit to the measures traffic flows of around 20%.
4.26 As a result of this, it was considered appropriate that a 30% uplift factor was applied to passenger
related vehicle movements. This ensures a robust assessment of future traffic impact, when
applying these assumptions to future flight schedules. The application of the 30% uplift factor is
shown throughout Appendix H.
Survey Data
Traffic Surveys
4.27 Traffic surveys were undertaken on Monday 22nd April 2013 which collected all traffic movements
currently accessing and egressing the site as well as the flow northbound and southbound on the
A2. The surveys were undertaken for the period of 0430 to 2200 to cover the time the airport
gates were open in two locations:
Entry / Exit of GB BCA (at-grade) (junction 1)
Exit of GB BCA (underpass) (junction 2)
4.28 Figure 4.1 below shows the location of each of the Junction Turning Count (JTC) surveys.
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SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport 15
Modification to Planning AgreementFigure 4.1 JTC Survey Locations
Google/ JMP
4.29 In addition queue length surveys were undertaken at the traffic signals on the right turn into the site
from the southbound carriageway, the left turn into the site and on the northbound A2 movement.
4.30 The surveys established the AM and PM network peaks, as indicated below, which helped to
inform the AM and PM modelling periods.
AM – 0730 – 0830; and
PM – 1630 – 1730.
4.31 The baseline survey data, including queue data is included in Appendix B and shown by network
diagrams in Appendix D.
Parking Surveys
4.32 Parking survey data was provided by GB BCA to inform the assessment. On the day of the road
network traffic surveys (22nd April 2013), the number of vehicles parked overnight on-site was
identified. For the 22nd April, GB BCA also provided public parking entry, exit and duration of stay
data, available from the Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) system operating in
conjunction with the car park barriers at the short and long stay car parks. More extended
information (between 17th and 27th April) was also made available with regard to the long stay car
park.
4.33 GB BCA also provided details of the number of vehicles parked overnight in both the short and long
stay car parks to assist in the assessment of parking accumulation associated with the typical busy
day in Summer.
4.34 The ANPR data is confidential in nature and cannot be published in this report. However, the
analysis of the information is included in Appendix E.
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16 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning AgreementVehicle Trip Distribution
4.35 Consideration was given to developing a distribution and assignment process on the basis of
gravity model principles. However, it became clear that this approach did not contribute to
effectively determine vehicle trip assignment in association with the airport accesses. Therefore,
the existing movements to and from GB BCA were analysed to provide a vehicle trip distribution
and assignment information. Table 4.2 below shows the general traffic distribution and assignment
of GB BCA vehicles entering and exiting from / to the A2.
Table 4.2 Traffic Distribution A2
In Out
North South North South
07:00 – 10:00 38% 62% 41% 59%
16:00 – 19:00 39% 61% 36% 64%
Other 39% 61% 41% 59%
JTC Traffic Surveys
4.36 It would be assumed that as GB BCA already attracts passengers from all major settlements in
Northern Ireland that the distribution of passengers will remain constant in the 2025 scenarios.
Appendix D contains the network diagrams associated with the base trip movements.
Traffic Growth
4.37 In order to factor traffic flows an NRTF growth factor was applied to existing flows on the A2.
Following discussions with RS and Amey a methodology was identified to provide a robust
estimate of the anticipated traffic growth on the A2 corridor without the proposed modification.
Factor to 2025
4.38 Notwithstanding the strategic road improvements planned by RS, assuming that the A2 will remain
in its current format of two lanes in either direction and to estimate traffic growth to 2025 the
following steps were undertaken:
An examination of the previous ten years flows during the identified peaks on the A2
Sydenham Bypass in accordance with DMRB Section 7.2.1 HD 24/06 paragraph 2.18 to
identify actual traffic growth related to development, policy and demographic changes in
the corridor;
A secondary validation process was undertaken by examining predicted flows from
Transport Assessments (TA) for major schemes in the area in comparison to actual flows
on the A2; and Specific development which will have a practical completion date pre 2025,
were identified, and added as a committed development flow.
4.39 In considering future traffic growth, the methodology set out in DMRB, of examining the flows over
a ten year period, the existing trend, was applied. Measured traffic growth, even when considering
the major developments which have opened in the region and directly affected this corridor, is
lower than NRTF Low Growth. However, in recognition of the PM peak period which is witnessing
an underlying growth equivalent to NRTF Low Growth factor, it was concluded that NRTF Low
Growth Factors should be utilised to forecast future year flows on the A2 before the provision of the
A2 widening scheme.
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SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport 17
Modification to Planning Agreement4.40 This approach would be supported by the A2 scheme assessment report which identifies the
constraints to growth on the A2 corridor.
4.41 Also the over prediction provided by previous TAs in the region would indicate that the traditional
application of Central Growth plus committed developments in this corridor has resulted in
assessments based on unrealistically high future traffic flow predictions. Table 4.3 below indicates
the flows on the A2 from the relevant identified TAs.
Table 4.3 TA Predicted Flows on the A2
Development AM Peak PM Peak
(Flow Year)
Predicted Counted Difference Predicted Counted Difference
IKEA (2007) - - - 5905 5085 820 (-14%)
Tesco (2009) 5553 5292 261 (-5%) 5490 5367 123 (-2%)
Airport Hotel 5949 4465 1484 (- 6168 4798 1370 (-
(2010)* 25%) 22%)
JMP and RS *PM Peak Hour 1600-1700
4.42 It is evident that the method used in the previous TAs of applying NRTF Central Growth on the A2
corridor has led to a significant over prediction of traffic flows.
4.43 Given the above evidence, future base traffic in 2025 were based on a NRTF Low Growth Factor
from 2013 to 2025 plus the strategic committed developments as identified by RS and indicated
below.
Factor between 2025 and 2030
4.44 For robustness, assuming that the A2 will be upgraded by 2025 to three lanes in either direction the
traffic growth that will be applied during the 5 year period post 2025 will be NRTF Central Growth.
4.45 This provided a robust assessment identifying the implications for a future year scenario on the A2.
NRTF Central Growth for the period between 2025 and 2030 would equate to a 4.55% increase in
background traffic.
4.46 Full analysis and the data is set out in Appendix E.
Committed Developments
4.47 RS indicated that the following sites should be included as committed developments:
20% of Titanic Quarter Phase 2 (the element which could be delivered without significant
infrastructure improvement);
Sirocco Works; and
Hotel at GB BCA (for robustness, although the hotel will not be constructed in the location
permitted given the potential need to retain the land for car parking).
4.48 The traffic flows associated with these sites have been obtained from the TAs submitted with their
planning applications. No network diagrams where available for the Titanic Quarter development.
However, using the ward information from the TA, the number of vehicle trips assigned to the A2
was calculated.
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18 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning Agreement4.49 The Sirocco Works TA included network diagrams indicating the total number of vehicle trips
generated in the AM and PM peak periods. The TA also considered committed development traffic
flows (insignificant traffic volume) which have been included in the total committed development
traffic flows associated with our future year traffic assessment at GBBCA, in order to provide a
robust assessment.
4.50 The traffic flows associated with these sites were factored to 16 and 18 hour flows using the same
profile as the flows on the A2 for the mixed use developments of Titanic Quarter and Sirocco
Works or a TRICS analysis for the hotel at the airport.
4.51 Appendix G contains the information gathered from the relevant TAs of the committed
developments and Figures D4 to D9 in Appendix D show the associated network diagrams.
Airport Vehicle Trip Generation
4.52 There are a number of different types of vehicles accessing and egressing GB BCA. Each of these
different sets of users has different travel patterns in relation to the operation of the airport during
its opening hours.
4.53 To aid understanding we have identified the travel pattern associated with the user group for each
of the time periods before identifying the impact on the scenario and showing the total vehicle
numbers accessing and egressing the airport.
2013 Baseline Scenario
4.54 The 2013 baseline scenario utilises the April 2013 measured flows and the 2013 summer peak
calculated airport flows.
Passenger Movements
4.55 By applying assumptions associated with mode share, vehicle occupancy and time shift application
to the existing summer flight schedule, the vehicle movements in and out of the airport were
generated (indicated by Figures 4.2 and 4.3 below). These figures indicate that the morning peak
in terms of vehicle movements occurs between 0500 and 0600 due to passengers arriving and
departing the early morning business related flights. In terms of the evening movements there are
two distinct peaks between 1600 and 1700 and a marginally higher peak between 2100 and 2200.
4.56 As indicated above the network AM peak is between 0730 and 0830 and therefore the morning
peak for passenger movements occurs outwith the network peak. The network PM peak was
between 1630 and 1730 and this coincides with one of the two major peaks in airport related
passenger movements.
Other Movements
4.57 Staff vehicle movements have been kept consistent with those measured and identified from the
baseline surveys. All other unidentified movements reflect the difference between traffic accessing
the airport and traffic accessing the airport car parks.
4.58 Figures 4.2 and 4.3 indicate the total vehicles in and out of the airport in the baseline situation and
the total two way movements.
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Modification to Planning AgreementFigure 4.2 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Base Scenario
900
800
700
600
500
400
Vehicle Movements In
Vehicle Movements Out
300
200
100
0
00:00 - 01:00
04:00 - 05:00
05:00 - 06:00
09:00 - 10:00
10:00 - 11:00
14:00 - 15:00
15:00 - 16:00
19:00 - 20:00
20:00 - 21:00
01:00 - 02:00
02:00 - 03:00
03:00 - 04:00
06:00 - 07:00
07:00 - 08:00
08:00 - 09:00
11:00 - 12:00
12:00 - 13:00
13:00 - 14:00
16:00 - 17:00
17:00 - 18:00
18:00 - 19:00
21:00 - 22:00
22:00 - 23:00
23:00 - 24:00
GB BCA& JMP
Figure 4.3 Total Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Base Scenario
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
00:00 - 01:00
02:00 - 03:00
04:00 - 05:00
06:00 - 07:00
08:00 - 09:00
10:00 - 11:00
12:00 - 13:00
14:00 - 15:00
16:00 - 17:00
18:00 - 19:00
20:00 - 21:00
22:00 - 23:00
01:00 - 02:00
03:00 - 04:00
05:00 - 06:00
07:00 - 08:00
09:00 - 10:00
11:00 - 12:00
13:00 - 14:00
15:00 - 16:00
17:00 - 18:00
19:00 - 20:00
21:00 - 22:00
23:00 - 24:00
GB BCA& JMP
4.59 By applying the traffic distributions outlined in Table 4.1 network diagrams for the peak hours in the
base conditions were created and are included in Appendix D.
2025 Without modification Scenario (With SFS)
4.60 If the Planning Agreement is not modified it is still anticipated that there would be changes to the
flows accessing and egressing the site. This is related to the changing types of aircraft, changes in
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20 SCT3445 1 4 George Best Belfast City Airport
Modification to Planning Agreementschedules and also the importance of summer sunshine destinations which are predicted to
increase in the forthcoming years.
Passenger Movements
4.61 Figures 4.4 and 4.5 indicate the vehicle movements in and out of GB BCA for the 2025 summer
scenario. These figures again indicate that the morning peak in terms of vehicle movements
occurs between 0500 and 0600 due to passengers arriving and departing the early morning
business related flights. In terms of the evening movements there are again two distinct peaks
between 1600 and 1700 and a marginally higher peak between 2100 and 2200.
4.62 The AM peak for passenger movements still occurs outwith the network peak. The PM peak for
passenger movements still occurs during the PM network peak.
Other Movements
4.63 York Aviation assessed the impact on employment levels at GB BCA as a result of the modification
of the Planning Agreement. It was found that employment levels would reduce by approximately
10% between the 2013 base conditions and the 2025 Without Modification scenario. This was as a
result of increased employment productivity effects producing a higher GVA (gross value added)
per employee over time. As a result, staff vehicles have been reduced by 10% from existing levels.
4.64 It is understood that York Aviation has since provided new employment figures that suggests a
greater employment activity that provided originally. This would indicate a greater reduction in the
number of staff and therefore staff vehicles. However, it was considered appropriate and robust to
adopt the original reduction factor.
4.65 All other unidentified movements have been factored by 30% to reflect the anticipated growth in
airport activity.
Figure 4.4 Vehicle Movements In and Out of GB BCA: Without Modification
900
800
700
600
500
400
Vehicle Movements In
Vehicle Movements Out
300
200
100
0
04:00 - 05:00
05:00 - 06:00
06:00 - 07:00
07:00 - 08:00
08:00 - 09:00
09:00 - 10:00
10:00 - 11:00
11:00 - 12:00
12:00 - 13:00
13:00 - 14:00
14:00 - 15:00
15:00 - 16:00
16:00 - 17:00
17:00 - 18:00
18:00 - 19:00
19:00 - 20:00
20:00 - 21:00
21:00 - 22:00
00:00 - 01:00
01:00 - 02:00
02:00 - 03:00
03:00 - 04:00
22:00 - 23:00
23:00 - 24:00
GB BCA& JMP
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