GLOBAL ENTERTAINMENT AND MEDIA OUTLOOK 2016 -2020: A WORLD OF DIFFERENCES - FACEBOOK'S CAROLYN EVERSON SIR MARTIN SORRELL OF WPP INDIA'S ...
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FACEBOOK’S CAROLYN EVERSON • SIR MARTIN SORRELL OF WPP • INDIA’S TRIPLE PLAY SPECIAL REPORT GLOBAL ENTERTAINMENT AND MEDIA OUTLOOK 2016–2020: AWORLD OF DIFFERENCES
Global entertainment and media outlook 2016 –20 Learn more at www.pwc.com /outlook How do you stand out from the crowd in a fragmented and multi-speed world? To capture attention and build value, companies need to understand how local and global markets are impacted by the changing pace of the media industry. For 17 years, PwC’s Global entertainment and media outlook has been providing expert commentary and insights centred on the shifts in advertising and consumer spending. Regardless of how you inﬂuence business decisions, the Outlook can help you understand industry trends so you can capitalise on new opportunities. The 2016–20 Outlook gives you even more data and insights than ever before including: • Advertising and consumer spending data with expert commentary across 54 countries • Access to 13 segments like T V advertising, Internet access, Book publishing and Music • The ability to compare ﬁve-year historic and ﬁve-year forecast data This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice.You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PwC does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. © 2016 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.171731
comment editor’s letter editor’s letter Looking Ahead with Confidence 1 If you’re a senior executive in the spending and advertising revenues for his industry (page 58). Carolyn entertainment and media industry, for 13 media industry segments, so Everson, vice president, global mar- you are probably engaged in rear- that media companies can plan their keting solutions, at Facebook, covers guard actions against your own growth in 54 major markets, from the future of the Internet (page 50). past assumptions. Every sector has Argentina to Vietnam. Elsewhere, journalist Sarah Ellison been struck by major technological Strategy+business is an award- compiles her fantasy-league media change during the past decade — winning magazine, known for its conglomerate (page 38), researcher newspapers and publishing by the ability to translate the complexities Erin Reilly describes a new way of move to digital, video and audio of business into forward-looking understanding your fan base (page by streaming, advertising by data articles by and for incisive thinkers 42), and Daniel Gross, editor of this analytics, marketing by new media and enterprise leaders. In 2015, it special issue, unveils a mysterious opportunities, interactive games by, celebrated its 20th anniversary. truth: how media journalists think well, other interactive games, and ev- We open this special report (page 64). erything by the smartphone and the with “A World of Differences” (page Finally, in “You’re a Media ever-more-global Internet. But only 6). PwC experts Chris Lederer and Company. Now What?” (page 28), now are these immense changes co- Megan Brownlow summarize the Deborah Bothun and John Sviokla alescing enough for us to make sense Outlook’s latest findings and fore- lay out four strategic orientations — of them. The challenge is not simply casts, and describe compelling each with its own promise and chal- to react to disruption and change, opportunities offered by pockets lenges — that media companies can but to choose a path that allows you of growth around the world. One adopt. For executives ready to ex- to look ahead with confidence. of the largest is India. As journal- pand and clarify their own outlook, That is the underlying premise ist Suvarchala Narayanan observes this special report provides a starting of this special report: a joint effort (page 20), the country has three rap- point. And on page 2, you’ll see how between two well-established sourc- idly growing media audiences: news- to stay in touch, so that we can look es of strategic thinking, which have paper readers, smartphone-oriented ahead with confidence together. combined to provide insight that we sophisticates, and the youth of the Illustration by Lars Leetaru believe is available nowhere else. country’s villages and small cities. Deborah Bothun The Global Entertainment and We’ve included in-depth inter- Global Leader Media Outlook, which PwC has views with two of the most prescient Entertainment and Media, PwC produced for 17 years, is a compen- media executives active today. Sir dium of data and perspective about Martin Sorrell, founder and chief Art Kleiner this extraordinarily vibrant industry. executive of the advertising net- Editor-in-Chief Each year, it estimates the consumer work WPP, considers the prospects strategy+business
strategy+business www.strategy-business.com strategy+business Published by PwC EDITORIAL Editor-in-Chief Special Report Editor Managing Editor Editor, Digital Deputy Managing Editor Assistant to the Editors Art Kleiner Daniel Gross Elizabeth Johnson Melanie Rodier Sally Errico Natasha Andre kleiner_art@ gross_daniel@ johnson_elizabeth@ rodier_melanie@ errico_sally@ andre_natasha@ strategy-business.com strategy-business.com strategy-business.com strategy-business.com strategy-business.com strategy-business.com Global Entertainment Principal Art Director Designers Information Graphics Chief Copy Editor and Media Leader Chris Lederer John Klotnia Laura Eitzen Linda Eckstein Victoria Beliveau Deborah Bothun firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org info@ info@ deborah.k.bothun@ strategy-business.com strategy-business.com pwc.com Jennifer Thai jennifer@ 2 optodesign.com PUBLISHING Publisher and Business Business Operations Senior Marketing Production Director Outlook Marketing Manager Manager Manager Catherine Fick Leader Gretchen Hall Bevan Ruland Charity Delich Publishing Experts Inc. Pauline Orchard Tel: +1 617 521 8808 Tel: +1 973 630 6924 Tel: +65 9359 4784 cfick@ Tel: +44 20 7804 9783 hall_gretchen@ ruland_bevan@ delich_charity@ publishingexperts.com pauline.orchard@ strategy-business.com strategy-business.com strategy-business.com uk.pwc.com PwC PARTNER OUTLOOK ADVISORS Global Entertainment Chris Lederer Phil Stokes Christopher A.H. and Media Leader Megan Brownlow James DePonte Vollmer Deborah Bothun PwC GLOBAL ENTERTAINMENT AND MEDIA OUTLOOK TEAM Pauline Orchard Caroline Calkins Sally Potts Matt Lieberman Ovum, a provider of business intelligence and strategic Christina Jackson Gary Rosen Neil Kothari Natali Dobbs services to the global telecoms and media markets (which is a trading division of Informa Telecoms and Media Ltd). www.ovum.com PwC Head of Clients and Head of Asia Pacific Head of Europe Middle Head of Strategy&, Head of Global Public Communications Markets, PwC Americas Advisory East Africa Advisory PwC’s strategy Thought Leadership Review Robert Swaak Miles Everson Ashley Unwin consulting business John Sviokla Ann-Denise Grech Les Moeller Julie Weidemann Head of Global Natasha Andre Consulting Thought Leadership Ivan de Souza Scan this QR code with Don’t have a reader? strategy+business magazine Articles published in your smartphone reader Search for “QR code contains only paper products strategy+business do not to go to reader” in your app that the Forest Stewardship necessarily represent the Council™ certifies have views of the member firms www.pwc.com/outlook store. come from well-managed of the PwC network. Reviews forests that contribute to and mentions of publica- conservation and respon- tions, products, or services sible management. do not constitute endorse- ment or recommendation for purchase. strategy+business (ISSN 1083-706X) is published by certain member firms of the PwC network. © 2016 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see pwc.com/structure for further details. Mentions of Strategy& refer to the global team of practical strategists that is integrated within the PwC network of firms. For more about Strategy&, see strategyand.pwc .com. No reproduction is permitted in whole or part without written permission of PwC. “strategy+business” is a trademark of PwC. Printed in the U.S.A.
20 essay contents technology Global E&M Outlook 6 A World of Differences 50 Thought Leader Entertainment and media companies Interview: can tap into many pockets of growth and opportunity. Our intensive Carolyn Everson 38 analysis of five shifts roiling the industry can help you identify them. Facebook’s top marketing execu- tive describes the social network’s ambitious efforts to forge enduring by Chris Lederer and meaningful relationships — with and Megan Brownlow employees, industry partners, and everyone on Earth. by Deborah Bothun 3 20 India’s Triple Play and Emmanuelle Rivet What do feature phones, regional newspapers, and smartphones have in common? They’re all vehicles 58 Thought Leader for the country’s remarkable move Interview: to digital broadband. Sir Martin Sorrell by Suvarchala Narayanan WPP’s CEO explains how the global agency is deploying its resources 50 28 You’re a Media Company. to connect effectively with clients and consumers across industry and geographic borders. Now What? Four strategies that work in this by Deborah Bothun and Daniel Gross dynamic new world. by Deborah Bothun and John Sviokla 64 Story Time Why are we so interested in media about media? 38 Fantasy-League Media by Daniel Gross If you could draft an all-star team of entertainment and media assets and Cover illustration by James Yang capabilities, who would you pick? by Sarah Ellison 6 42 Fan Favorites In order to build engagement and loyalty in a climate of intense competition and distraction, media companies have to understand their customers, viewers, and readers as fans. by Erin Reilly 58 special report 2016
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country contacts Use of data in this publication Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Articles in this publication are drawn from data in the Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020, a comprehensive source Jayant Bhargava Phil Stokes of consumer and advertising spend data available via subscription at jayant.bhargava@ email@example.com www.pwc.com/outlook. PwC continually seeks to update the online strategyand.ae.pwc.com Outlook data; therefore, please note that the data in the articles in this publication may not be aligned with the data found online. The Global United States Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020 is the most up-to-date Singapore Deborah Bothun source of consumer and advertising spend data. Charlotte Hsu firstname.lastname@example.org 5 email@example.com This document is provided by PwC for general guidance only and does not constitute the provision of legal advice, accounting services, invest- Venezuela ment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information South Africa Manuel Pereyra provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, legal, or other competent advisors. Before Vicky Myburgh firstname.lastname@example.org making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a profes- email@example.com sional advisor who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. Vietnam Spain Ong Tiong Hooi The information is provided as is, with no assurance or guarantee of Jorge Planes Trillo firstname.lastname@example.org completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information and without email@example.com warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose. Content from the articles in this publication must not be Sweden excerpted, used, or presented in any portion that would render it mis- leading in any manner or that fails to provide sufficient context. Nicklas Kullberg firstname.lastname@example.org Permission to cite Switzerland Patrick Balkanyi No part of this publication may be excerpted, reproduced, stored in a email@example.com retrieval system, or distributed or transmitted in any form or by any means — including electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or scanning — without the prior written permission of PwC. Taiwan Requests should be submitted in writing to Gary Rosen at Damian Gilhawley firstname.lastname@example.org outlining the excerpts you wish to use, along email@example.com with a draft copy of the full report that the excerpts will appear in. Provi- sion of this information is necessary for every citation request to enable PwC to assess the context in which the excerpts are being presented. Thailand name to come bold type here Without limiting the foregoing, excerpts from the publication may be Tina Hammond used only for background market illustration, should not be the sole firstname.lastname@example.org source of 2016–2020 information, and must not form the majority of sourced information. Turkey Murat Colakoglu email@example.com UAE Jayant Bhargava jayant.bhargava@ strategyand.ae.pwc.com 5
Entertainment and media companies can tap into many pockets of growth and opportunity. Our intensive analysis of five shifts roiling the industry can help you identify them. A WORLD OF s+b special report DIFFERENCES BY CHRIS LEDERER A ND MEGA N BROW NLOW Entertainment and media (E&M) companies are making 7 great strides in pivoting to serve digital consumers around the world. However, at first glance, the outlook for E&M companies worldwide still may seem troubling. Declining pricing power, disinflation, and the trend toward free media and sharing all make it fundamentally challenging to grow organically. Despite growing 5.5 percent last year, this US$1.7 trillion global industry is likely to have difficulty Illustration by Guy Billout keeping up with the economy as a whole. The Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020 projects that E&M will rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4 percent in nominal terms through 2020 — lagging behind overall economic growth (see Exhibit 1, next page).
Chris Lederer Megan Brownlow firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com advises senior management in focuses on market diligence the media industry on issues and strategy for the of strategy and growth for entertainment and media Strategy&, PwC’s strategy sector at PwC. She is a consulting business. He is a principal with PwC Australia, principal with PwC US based based in Sydney. in New York. He has published previously in Harvard Business Review and with Harvard Business Publishing. But a closer examination brings a different pic- and Nigeria, will also produce comparatively higher ture into focus. E&M is a dynamic, diverse industry E&M growth rates (see Exhibit 2 ). But that’s just the with steady and sustainable growth. Although the beginning of the story. s+b special report strong aggregate growth is not shared equally by all At a global level, one of the most significant shifts participants, impressive growth and opportunities can evident is a reordering of the industry’s sectors (see Ex- be found in many areas of the industry. Drastic slow- downs in some areas and stagnation in others coexist with spectacular expansion in “hot” countries, regions, Exhibit 2: A World of Differences In many developing markets, E&M spending is growing more rapidly than and sectors. Which is to say: This global media land- the economy at large. scape is multi-shifting. Percentage-point difference in growth rates of E&M spending and GDP, 2016 In fact, for the majority of the countries we looked Venezuela at — 36 out of 54 — E&M spending is growing more Argentina Indonesia rapidly than GDP, often by a factor of more than Brazil Egypt 50 percent. Venezuela tops the list; E&M spending Russia Nigeria growth there is likely to outpace GDP growth by more Pakistan South Africa than 14 percentage points in 2016. Many of the most Peru MENA* populous E&M markets, including Brazil, Pakistan, Colombia 8 Chile Vietnam Turkey India Exhibit 1: Exhibit Global E&M 1:Growing Spending vs. GDP but Slowing UAE Over the next five years, growth in spending on entertainment and media Greece Over the next five years, growth in spending on entertainment and media China will lag overall economic growth. will lag overall economic growth. Kenya Saudi Arabia 10% Growth Rates Mexico 10% Annual Growth Rates New Zealand Thailand 8% Taiwan 8% Italy Exhibit 1: Global E&M and GDP growth Canada Exhibit 2: EMC Outpacing GDP Growth 6% GDP Singapore 6% GDP (nominal, PPP) (nominal, PPP) Philippines Exhibit 3: Sector and Biz model strategy+business special report 2016 U.S. Exhibit 4: Bubble chart 4% Czech Republic 4% E&M E&M Norway Exhibit 5: Ten youngest and ten oldest markets (nominal) (nominal) France 2% Switzerland Exhibit 6: Media stock index 2% Australia Exhibit 7: Recorded music Japan 0 Exhibit 8: Music and video streaming 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Exhibit 9: Heat map 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PROJ. *MENA (Middle East and North Africa) = Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, PROJ. and Qatar. Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt are broken out separately. Source: Ovum, IMF Source: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020, PwC, Ovum Source: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020, PwC, Ovum
FOR THE MAJORITY OF COUNTRIES WE LOOKED AT, E&M SPENDING IS GROWING MORE RAPIDLY THAN GDP. hibit 3). On the left of the exhibit, we’ve aggregated video and new e-commerce offerings, for example — segments into five broad groups: Internet, video enter- to jump directly into new markets and segments. tainment, publishing, music, and video games. As the We expect the transitions we’ve described to con- features s+b chart shows, revenue across E&M is steadily shifting tinue, as powerful macroeconomic, technological, and special from publishing businesses to video and Internet busi- social trends work to change the face of many indus- titlereport nesses — in particular those that provide over-the-top tries, not just E&M. But the obvious changes under (OTT) services and monetize consumer data. When way throughout E&M mask a series of counterintui- of the article we break down global spending by business model tive shifts that are apparent only to those deeply im- on the right of the exhibit, direct consumer spend- mersed in the industry. Each year, in putting together ing models remain strong, while spending on Internet the Global Entertainment and Media Outlook, we access, including mobile data, will rival advertising. and our colleagues collect and aggregate an immense This development creates more fertile ground for new amount of data, gain insight through discussions with entrants and traditional players alike — think OTT colleagues and industry leaders, test hypotheses, and Exhibit 3: A Decade of Divergence Differential growth rates for sectors and business models are reshaping the E&M industry. Global Spending by Sector, US$ Billions Global Spending by Business Model, US$ Billions 9 $1,000 $1,000 Internet Consumer Spending CAGR 2015–20: CAGR 2015–20: 7.8% 2.6% $800 $800 Advertising Spending Video Entertainment 4.9% $600 $600 3.6% Publishing 1.1% Internet Access $400 $400 6.8% $200 Music $200 2.3% Video Games $0 4.8% $0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PROJ. PROJ. Note: Internet includes Internet access, search, and online classified Note: Consumer spending includes subscription revenues (from TV and advertising. Video entertainment includes TV/video, TV advertising, radio), ticket sales, and product purchases (books, video games, etc.). and cinema. Publishing includes magazines, newspapers, Advertising spending includes advertising revenue from TV, publishing, business-to-business, and books. Music includes radio, Internet advertising, and out-of-home advertising. Internet access music and radio. includes Internet subscription fees. Source: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020, PwC, Ovum Source: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020, PwC, Ovum
Exhibit 4: Youth Movement Across countries, there is a strong correlation between the relative size of the under-35 population and growth in E&M spending. Percentage of Population below Age 35 80% Kenya Nigeria Venezuela Peru UAE 70% South Africa Philippines Pakistan CANADA Saudi Arabia Malaysia INDIA Poland MEXICO 60% Israel Colombia INDONESIA U.K. Argentina Egypt FRANCE BRAZIL Turkey GLOBAL Vietnam Norway AVERAGE Denmark U.S. Chile 54.4% s+b special report 50% New Zealand CHINA Hungary AUSTRALIA Finland RUSSIA Switzerland Singapore Belgium Thailand 40% Romania GERMANY Taiwan KEY Sweden 30% JAPAN SOUTH KOREA Circle size represents Global Region Czech Republic agreggated E&M spending Austria NORTH AMERICA Portugal 2015–20 Ireland ASIA-PACIFIC Greece $100 billion 20% ITALY WESTERN EUROPE Hong Kong $500 billion SPAIN $1 trillion CENTRAL AND Netherlands EASTERN EUROPE 10% BOLD = countries spending LATIN AMERICA GLOBAL over US$20 billion in 2020 AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST AVERAGE E&M Spending Growth, CAGR 2015–20 4.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Source: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020, PwC, Ovum 10 formulate strategies. This process enables us to pin- ment and cutting the cord on cable TV obscures a point shifts that few others can see — and the ones larger trend. We’ve all seen the speed at which younger we’ve identified this year promise a host of opportu- consumers adopt new consumption behaviors and their nities across the E&M sector. They should serve as a startling ability to multitask in different media. These serious call to action for many of the industry’s incum- same attributes allow them to lead the way in setting bent leaders, which can take control of their future. trends and driving consumption in E&M markets The biggest of these shifts are occurring in five di- around the world. Companies may find it easier and mensions of the global E&M landscape: demography, more comforting to pitch their products and services at competition, consumption, geography, and business putatively more affluent older people. But our data sug- strategy+business special report 2016 models. Simultaneous and interrelated, they influence gests that in many countries in many parts of the world, and play off one another. We’ll look at each shift in turn. the young will propel E&M growth through 2020. As shown by our mapping of 54 countries’ popula- Shift 1. Demography: Youth Will Be Served tion percentage under 35 against their projected E&M A great deal is made — in the U.S. in particular — of spending growth rates, there’s an almost perfect correla- the financial struggles of millennials. But the cultural tion between markets with more youthful populations trope of 20-somethings living in their parents’ base- and those with higher E&M growth (see Exhibit 4 ).
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MEDIA COMPANIES IS TO UNDERSTAND THE YOUNG AND BE ABLE TO PREDICT, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THEY WILL PIVOT FROM MUSIC DOWNLOADS TO STREAMING. Why? Here’s our hypothesis. Younger people consume of legacy media — in other words, in these markets, more media than older people, and are more open to a large base of consumers comfortable with traditional adopting digital behaviors — and therefore more open media will make it possible to sustain profitability for features s+b to digital spending. Although some analog segments re- some time, whereas pushing new technology too hard special main robust, digital media is where aggregate growth will risk alienating the considerable number of older titlereport is strongest globally. In addition, many of the most consumers. In Japan, for example, the average daily youthful markets have rapidly growing middle classes newspaper circulation is 45.6 million, a number that of the article whose discretionary spending power is on the rise — has declined by only 6.3 percent in the past four years. and E&M spending is usually discretionary. The op- There’s no immediate rush for Japanese newspaper portunity for media companies is to understand how companies to go all-digital. the young spend on digital content, and to be able to In younger markets, by contrast, there will be a predict, for example, when they will pivot from paying significant incentive for providers to shift completely for music downloads to streaming music services. to digital media, or to offer bundles, the better to tar- Of course, E&M providers entering new markets get the large number of youthful consumers with less or seeking to accelerate growth in existing ones should ingrained habits and preferences. India’s growing mid- take into account a country’s demographics along with dle class has supported print newspaper growth. But its wealth or rate of economic growth. A number of the ranks of Indian social media users surged by 26 11 lower-growth, relatively older markets, such as the U.S., percent in 2015, to 134 million. That suggests more remain fundamentally important because of their size digital reading is imminent. (See “India’s Triple Play,” by and absolute growth. In older, less digitized markets, it Suvarchala Narayanan, page 20.) may make sense to focus more on managing the decline Our analysis of total E&M revenue growth in the world’s 10 youngest and oldest markets in demographic terms further underscores the vital importance of youth Exhibit 5: Age Matters (see Exhibit 5 ). On average, E&M spending in the 10 Between 2015 and 2020, E&M spending will grow far more rapidly in the world’s youngest markets than in the oldest ones. youngest markets is growing three times as rapidly as in the 10 oldest markets. In Pakistan, where around 70 E&M CAGR, 2015–20 8.0% percent of the population is under 35, E&M spending is projected to grow at a 10 percent CAGR through 2020; by contrast, Germany and Japan — two much wealth- ier countries with among the lowest proportions of peo- 2.5% ple under 35 — sport a meager E&M CAGR of about 10 YOUNGEST 10 OLDEST 2 percent. Put another way, growth in E&M spending markets markets is more influenced by the age of a country’s population Source: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020, PwC, Ovum than by its comparative wealth. So youth will be served.
MUCH OF THE E&M INDUSTRY IS GROWING MORE GLOBAL, BUT CULTURES AND TASTES IN CONTENT REMAIN STEADFASTLY LOCAL. Exhibit 6: Content Struggles In a world in which Netflix can launch its stream- In 2015, stocks of media companies encountered significant headwinds. ing services in 130 new countries in a single day, it’s easy to assume that content is becoming more globally s+b special report S&P 500 Media Industry Group Index 550 homogeneous. But the reality is that content is being 525 redefined by forces of globalization and localization si- multaneously. In the global coffee market, a homoge- 500 nizing force such as Starbucks, now present in 70 coun- 475 tries around the world, can thrive alongside local chains 450 and coffee shops. The same holds true in E&M. Net- 425 flix, for example, has said that locally produced content 400 2015 weekly prices is its future. J F M A M J J A S O N D Much of the E&M industry is growing more glob- Source: S&P Capital IQ al, but cultures and tastes in content remain steadfastly local. The international opening weekend of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (in March 2016) grossed Shift 2. Competition: Content Is Still King $254 million globally on 40,000 screens in 66 markets In 2015, the stocks of many of the world’s largest tra- outside the U.S., the fifth most successful international 12 ditional media conglomerates, especially those based in opening in history. But the year’s biggest opening in the U.S. and Europe, suffered in comparison to both China thus far, the Hong Kong–produced fantasy com- technology-driven platforms such as Netflix and com- edy The Mermaid, grossed $120 million on its opening munications platforms such as Verizon. Declines in weekend in February 2016. media stocks were especially significant in the summer Content-based business models across the world are (see Exhibit 6 ). being transformed to support this coexistence of global Content was deemed to have taken a backseat to and local content offers. South Africa–based Naspers technology and communications. The symptoms: slow- has an impressive portfolio including pay-TV operations ing ad markets for traditional, content-producing me- that serve 48 African countries, and Nation Media dia; big ratings declines for cable and broadcast tele- is the biggest media house in East Africa, having ex- strategy+business special report 2016 vision; the currency drag from a strong dollar; and a panded from its origins in Kenya to build major opera- slowdown in TV affiliate fees. As a result, it might seem tions in Uganda and Tanzania. Such companies thrive that the mantra from the 1990s, “content is king,” had by blending international reach and local focus. A host become outdated. But in fact, in an important yet wide- of global television formats are produced domestically, ly overlooked shift, we believe that content will reign in local languages with local talent. More than 100 supreme as platforms seek to differentiate and expand international variations of the British-created quiz internationally. show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? have been pro-
duced since the original U.K. version debuted in in India, the world’s most prolific producer of movies; 1998. Talent shows, dating shows, and cooking shows in Nigeria, where Nollywood produces about 1,000 have also proven to have universal appeal, but they films a year (more than U.S. studios do); and in China, features s+b succeed in domestic markets largely because of their which will overtake the U.S. in 2017 as the world’s larg- special local characteristics. est market for box office revenue. titlereport The dichotomy of global and local may be seen These factors carry implications for media compa- most clearly in those markets that combine well-devel- nies’ strategies. In particular, it’s important not to as- of the article oped digital distribution infrastructure and platforms sume that past patterns in spending on “global” content with strong local content industries. The preference in mature markets are a valid guide to future spend- for local content over “global” (often code for U.S.-pro- ing in emerging markets, which often have their own, duced ) content is evident even in a mature, developed, even more deeply held tastes in content and cultures, on English-speaking country such as Australia, where lo- top of a variety of native languages. As companies tai- cally produced sports, reality shows, news, and drama lor their decisions about market entry, they also need to offerings, such as Shaun Micallef’s political satire Mad consider the mix of global versus local brands they will as Hell, rank as the 10 most-watched television pro- deploy in order to build audiences. grams every year. Local tastes are even more prevalent A particularly striking example of counterintui- tive trends driven by local content demand can be seen 13 in physical recorded music revenues in 2015. Global Exhibit 7: Local Tastes Dominate spending on physical recorded music — mainly CDs Consumers in three European countries bucked the trend of sharply and vinyl —Exhibit fell in1: 2015 declining sales of physical recorded music. GlobalbyE&M6.3andpercent. Yet spending GDP growth on physical music Exhibit formats in the U.K. 2: EMC Outpacing was almost flat, GDP Growth 2015 Spending on Physical Recorded Music which is quiteExhibit an 3: Sector and Biz achievement model considering the down- ward trend. Exhibit And in 4: Bubble chart Norway, the spending Italy and +30.5% Exhibit 5: Ten youngest and ten oldest markets growth was remarkable: 22.7 percent and 30.5 percent, Exhibit 6: Media stock index respectively (see Exhibit 7 ). Exhibit 7: Recorded music +22.7% What happened? In and Exhibit 8: Music each videomarket, streamingthe impact of global music streaming Exhibit 9: Heat map was offset by specific local tastes. In the U.K., Adele’s new blockbuster album, 25, which was not made available for streaming, was U.K. almost single-handedly responsible for the strength of Worldwide Norway Italy –0.5% physical music; the legions of fans among Adele’s coun- –6.3% trymen and -women were willing to pay for CDs. In Italy, a strong domestic repertoire, led by the 13th stu- Source: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020, PwC, Ovum dio album of singer–songwriter Jovanotti, Lorenzo 2015
Exhibit 8: A Stream Runs Through It now to curate their own playlists — through apps, You- Revenues for streaming services are growing rapidly. Tube, streaming services, social media, and OTT offer- ings. Broadly speaking, many pundits have proclaimed s+b special report US$ Millions $40,000 4.0% the end of the bundle — the set of offerings that radio Digital music streaming revenue stations, cable and record companies, or even news- $35,000 3.5% Electronic home video papers and magazines have traditionally sold together. OTT/streaming — SVOD revenue $30,000 3.0% And indeed, the rise of subscription content streaming Share of global $25,000 consumer revenue 2.5% services has been a major feature of the E&M land- (right scale) scape in recent years (see Exhibit 8 ). Global subscription $20,000 2.0% spending on Netflix and other OTT subscription- $15,000 1.5% video-on-demand (SVOD) services grew by 33.8 per- $10,000 1.0% cent in 2014 and 32.3 percent in 2015 — that’s 77 per- cent in two years. The launch of Apple Music provided $5,000 0.5% a major boost to digital music streaming revenue, and $0 0% other streaming companies, such as Tidal, Beatport, 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PROJ. Deezer, Earbits, Pandora, Spotify, and Rhapsody — to Source: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2016–2020, PwC, Ovum name but a few — arguably saw a boost due to the en- 14 hanced awareness Apple Music created among consum- CC, accounted for the rebound in physical music. And ers. Partly as a result, global music streaming spending in Norway, where the popular electronic dance music rose by 41.8 percent in 2015, to $4.07 billion. scene promotes record-spinning DJs as rock stars, vi- But the bundle isn’t dead, not by a long shot. nyl sales accounted for 24 percent of all physical mu- The rapid growth in on-demand streaming revenues sic revenue, a high proportion compared with vinyl’s 2 is starting from a very low base, and even today on- percent share of music revenue globally. Faced with an demand streaming accounts for little more than 2 per- array of choices, consumers decide at the local — and cent of global consumer E&M revenue. Meanwhile, indeed personal — level what to purchase. And that video and cable incumbents, which were initially slow leads to wildly different outcomes, even in markets that off the mark, are fighting back with gusto by offer- strategy+business special report 2016 might appear superficially similar. ing their content on an integrated omnichannel basis, on TV, laptop, tablet, and smartphone. In numerous Shift 3. Consumption: The Joy of Bundles markets, many consumers — including cord cutters The ability to design and curate your own media diet — still love the convenience of having their content has been one of the most powerful trends to emerge in aggregated in one place, rather than needing to root the industry. Whether in the U.S. or Uzbekistan, con- it out across a bunch of disconnected services. In the sumers have never had a greater ability than they do U.K., Sky’s Now TV stand-alone streaming service
IN 2017, WHEN CHINA OVERTAKES THE U.S. IN BOX OFFICE REVENUE, IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THE U.S. HAS NOT HELD THE LEADING POSITION IN AN E&M SEGMENT. had more than 700,000 subscribers in early 2015. But We also see bundles popping up, or reappearing, Sky also offers those who subscribe to their main ser- in other sectors. In Europe, newspaper publishers are vice a new multidevice streaming capability. enabling custom bundles by mashing content onto features s+b As such services gain traction, it’s clear that some new digital platforms. Blendle, based in Utrecht, the special consumers may opt for a set of “pure” à la carte offer- Netherlands, launched an English-language version in titlereport ings to keep costs down. And fewer will pay a premium March 2016 with 20 high-caliber publishing partners price for a mundane collection of channels that they can including the New York Times and the Economist. This of the article watch only on television. But the traditional bundlers are experiment, which leverages micropayments, may prove adapting rapidly, and they have substantial advantages attractive to digital consumers used to paying small and large customer bases. As a result, we believe the bulk amounts for apps, songs, and mobile games. of digital OTT mass-market services will gradually be reabsorbed into aggregated offerings that will echo the Shift 4. Geography: Growth Markets traditional analog-style bundle, but that will be more Generally, companies have had one set of expectations flexibly priced and available on a full range of devices. about developed markets (slow growth, low regulation, These offerings will have features such as intelligent in- easier to access) and another about developing markets tegration, which permits a consumer to watch part of a (rapid growth, high regulation, more difficult to ac- movie on one device and then finish it on another. cess). The result was that a company might have one 15 When this happens, the competitive battle may strategy for developed markets, and another, some- move up a notch from the OTT service level to the what generic strategy for developing markets. But the realm of service aggregators, which range from giants dynamics are shifting rapidly. In 2017, for example, such as Apple, Google, and Verizon to small entrants when China overtakes the U.S. in box office revenue, such as WeShow and Aggrega. The big battles will it will mark the first time the U.S. has not held the no longer be fought mainly over networks, cable leading position in an E&M segment. China is also channels, and upstarts gaining access to content. well advanced in segments such as digital advertis- The new battles will be among cable incumbents, ing. In 2016, three countries — China, the U.K., and technology giants, and telecommunications compa- Denmark — will become the first to reach the tipping nies, fighting over gaining access to distribution. The point at which total digital advertising revenues sur- heightened importance of ownership of broadcast pass their non-digital equivalent. spectrum will make spectrum auctions such as the Disruption is pushing markets to develop in differ- one currently under way in the U.S. potentially piv- ent ways. The divergences are being driven by several otal. Whoever buys and owns spectrum may be bet- factors. One is the differential growth rates among sec- ter placed to enter and win the race to offer stream- tors. The table in Exhibit 9 (page 17) demonstrates that ing bundles. As bandwidth comes up for grabs, so too beyond zeroing in on the fastest-growing markets, such will the role of aggregator. as Indonesia, India, and Peru, E&M companies must
REGIONAL INCONSISTENCY IN REGULATION AFFECTS BUSINESS MODELS, THE SHAPE OF THE MARKET, AND THE REVENUE OUTLOOK IN DIFFERENT TERRITORIES. focus on those that are generating the greatest absolute access affects business models, the shape of the market, dollar growth — namely, the U.S. and China. In ad- and the revenue outlook in different territories. Ger- dition, in every country, different sectors are driving man publisher Axel Springer quit the Russian market s+b special report growth to different degrees. The result of these diver- in 2015 owing to foreign ownership limits. But other gences is that “opportunity” economies — even with- countries are improving the regulatory environment for in the same region — can display significantly varied E&M companies. In Nigeria, which in 2014 created an growth patterns. online copyright registration system, the government is In addition to understanding the where and how working to enact legislation to protect publishers more of growth by country, companies must grasp the im- effectively against copyright infringement. Malaysia’s portance of a third factor: regulation. In the E&M con- government has blocked tariffs on books in order to text, regulatory interventions include blocking entry of promote reading and literacy. international companies, requiring a certain percent- The fundamental and ingrained differences be- age of airtime to be dedicated to local market content, tween markets represent a key factor that E&M compa- mandating government review and approval of content nies must take into account when planning their global before content can be aired, and imposing different tax strategies. And it’s clear that despite globalization, such structures for local and international companies. And differences won’t go away anytime soon. The chal- once again, the conventional E&M wisdom is often un- lenge for E&M companies is how to navigate around or 16 dermined by the facts on the ground. Simply put, some through the barriers and thus gain access to these mar- of the most heavily regulated markets are also those kets’ expanding consumer opportunities and growing with the most growth. revenues. One option is creating new, tailored business In China, companies may face significant obstacles models and local joint ventures or partnerships, and due to regulation. The websites of U.S. companies such then localizing content and advertising experiences to as Facebook, Google, and Netflix are blocked, and the comply with local regulations on such issues as decency number of foreign films shown annually is limited. and public health, as well as to suit local tastes. Yet China remains one of the most robust markets for E&M growth in terms of absolute dollars. The more Shift 5. Business Models: Transforming with Trust restrictive environments tend to limit what media com- In 2013, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings (now) famously strategy+business special report 2016 panies can broadcast and publish, and also limit who said he wanted to build Netflix into a company that ac- owns them, with a common focus on maintaining in- tually resembled a premium cable network. This was a digenous ownership and control. This often takes the technology company racing to become a new kind of form of governments funding local content or enacting hybrid content company. Meanwhile, traditional pub- regulations to prevent “excessive” outside cultural influ- lisher Time Inc. is emerging as a hybrid technology ence and protect local artists. company. In March 2016, it acquired the data-driven Regional inconsistency in regulation and market marketing specialist Viant Technology. Such moves
Exhibit 9: Hot Spots TOP 10 rank in category In every country, a different mix of factors is propelling growth. BOTTOM 10 rank in category COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATES 2015–20 COUNTRY E&M VIDEO VIDEO E&M SPENDING 2015 SPENDING INTERNET GAMES ENTERTAINMENT MUSIC PUBLISHING US$ MILLIONS Indonesia 13% 21% 8% 15% 4% 4% $12,672 Nigeria 11% 15% 12% 4% 7% 2% $4,311 India 10% 14% 11% 12% 7% 4% $25,126 Egypt 10% 15% 7% 13% 11% 1% $2,859 Vietnam 10% 13% 5% 12% 2% 3% $3,103 Pakistan 10% 14% 5% 9% 9% 2% $3,066 China 9% 12% 7% 9% 6% 1% $168,826 MENA 9% 14% 4% 7% 7% 0% $10,180 Kenya 8% 9% 14% 10% 7% 4% $2,254 Argentina 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 4% $11,645 Peru 8% 12% 9% 8% 9% 2% $3,944 Philippines 8% 12% 7% 9% 5% 2% $5,675 Venezuela 8% 12% 6% 6% 11% 3% $5,135 Colombia 7% 10% 10% 7% 8% 2% $5,264 South Africa 7% 13% 6% 6% 5% 1% $9,567 UAE 7% 10% 9% 5% 4% -1% $3,785 features s+b Chile 7% 10% 7% 5% 5% 3% $4,340 Turkey 7% 10% 8% 6% 6% 2% $11,533 special Brazil 6% 10% 11% 5% 4% 2% $35,657 titlereport Russia 6% 10% 6% 6% 0% 2% $15,380 Saudi Arabia 5% 6% 8% 14% 6% -1% $7,472 Mexico 5% 7% 4% 4% 6% 3% $21,616 of the article Singapore 5% 9% 5% 3% 2% 2% $5,148 Thailand 5% 8% 7% 6% 5% 2% $9,005 Australia 5% 8% 3% 4% 0% 1% $29,856 Taiwan 5% 8% 2% 1% 5% 2% $13,685 Romania 5% 9% 7% 2% 1% 2% $2,171 Sweden 5% 11% 4% 3% 5% -1% $12,767 New Zealand 4% 10% 5% 3% 1% 1% $4,784 South Korea 4% 6% 6% 2% 6% 0% $51,107 Czech Republic 4% 7% 6% 2% 0% 2% $4,351 Malaysia 4% 8% 6% 3% 4% 2% $7,321 Israel 4% 7% 4% 2% 0% 0% $5,110 Ireland 4% 9% 5% 2% 4% -1% $4,476 U.S. 4% 8% 4% 1% 2% 2% $602,973 $32,751 17 Italy 3% 6% 4% 3% 1% -1% Poland 3% 7% 6% 2% 0% 1% $9,196 Canada 3% 7% 4% 1% 2% 2% $40,329 Netherlands 3% 7% 5% 2% 2% 0% $16,402 U.K. 3% 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% $89,428 Norway 3% 7% 2% 2% 3% -1% $10,023 France 3% 6% 2% 2% 0% 1% $63,493 Spain 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 0% $24,215 Greece 3% 6% 5% 2% 4% -1% $4,056 Denmark 3% 7% 4% 1% 2% -1% $8,304 Hong Kong 3% 5% 6% 1% 4% 0% $8,797 Portugal 3% 4% 6% 3% 0% -1% $6,738 Hungary 3% 4% 7% 3% 2% 1% $2,564 Finland 3% 7% 3% 1% 1% 0% $6,413 Switzerland 3% 6% 4% 3% 2% -1% $16,055 Austria 2% 7% 3% 3% 1% -1% $10,655 Belgium 2% 5% 2% 2% 2% 0% $11,242 Japan 2% 3% 5% 3% -3% -1% $148,961 Germany 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% 0% $85,712 GLOBAL 4.4% 7.8% 4.8% 3.6% 2.3% 1.1% $1.7 TRILLION Note: Internet includes Internet access, search, and online classified advertising. Video *MENA (Middle East and North Africa) = Algeria, Bahrain, Source: Global Entertainment and Media entertainment includes TV/video, TV advertising, and cinema. Publishing includes magazines, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, and Qatar. Outlook 2016–2020, PwC, Ovum newspapers, business-to-business, and books. Music includes music and radio. Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt are broken out separately.
E&M COMPANIES THAT COMBINE TECHNOLOGY WITH INDUSTRY-CENTRIC ASSETS — SUCH AS RELATIONSHIPS, CUSTOMERS, AND KNOWLEDGE — WILL THRIVE AND EVOLVE. highlight another noteworthy shift. In many areas, the not build, they buy or access through partnering. Enter growth of technology and digitization acts as a power- the new “super” agency. ful centrifugal force — breaking up existing relation- In September 2014, the advertising holding com- s+b special report ships; pushing large, generalist entities to give way to pany WPP injected $25 million and the ad server plat- smaller specialists; and allowing smaller, nimble com- form from its programmatic media arm Xaxis into ad petitors to beat out incumbents. But the reality is that technology provider AppNexus, in return for a signifi- the historic shifts now under way are forging the cre- cant stake in the business. (See “Thought Leader In- ation of new business models, and perhaps even new terview: Sir Martin Sorrell,” by Deborah Bothun and industries. Those that are able to integrate the capabili- Daniel Gross, page 58.) Announcing the deal, WPP, ties and approaches that create value for customers will whose Kantar unit represents one of the largest con- continue to thrive. sumer retail data sets available, said the move continued Let’s take advertising as an example. The rise of its strategy of investing in fast-growing sectors such as large integrated data sets, smart analytics, and new vi- ad technology and programmatic media buying. Oth- sualization and delivery platforms — combined with er savvy, forward-looking agencies also have large and the growth of programmatic advertising and the ad- valuable data assets, and are working to evolve them to vent of native content — would seem to significantly world-class levels. For instance, Publicis bought Sapi- undermine the role of the traditional agency and me- ent, which includes SapientNitro and Razorfish, thus 18 dia company. This view is reinforced by a migration of enabling the company to build a portfolio of leading advertising revenue away from companies whose core technology and digital assets. product is “the big idea” and toward those, like Google As these players in the advertising value chain de- and Facebook, whose differentiator is their algorithmic velop their data strategies, the new linchpin for com- buying platform. At the same time, multichannel net- petitive advantage could be bundling in content mar- works, social media, and content marketing businesses keting (or, as some say, “brand to demand”) at scale. are seeking to grab a slice of the advertising pie. This next-generation marketing strategy offers promise But what if all these changes are creating an op- not just to the agencies, but to content creators as well. portunity for incumbent agencies to reorient themselves In Australia, the three biggest newspaper publishers to become invaluable to markets? One might argue that — News Corp, Fairfax, and APN News and Media — strategy+business special report 2016 the established agency holding companies are uniquely have all set up or bought a content marketing business well positioned to bring together programmatic capa- in the last couple of years. These organizations may be bilities, analytics, data aggregation, and native content. very well suited to capture this opportunity because of And in fact, they’re already doing it. The biggest hold- the trust equity that lives in the brands, especially when ing companies are scaling world-class programmatic ca- it comes to assuring consumers who have privacy con- pabilities, while also developing software to buy digital cerns. Globally, revenues from the creation and provi- advertising faster and more efficiently. What they can- sion of content marketing grew 13.3 percent in 2014,
to reach $26.47 billion, according to PQ Media. E&M To do this, they’ll need to ensure that their capa- companies that embrace technology and combine it bilities are both up to the job individually and aligned with industry-centric assets — such as relationships, such that they add up to more than the sum of their features s+b customers, and knowledge — will thrive and evolve. parts. Strong brands must be underpinned by the best special talent, which must be empowered by low-friction digi- titlereport Navigating Multispeed Markets tized processes that enable them to glean and use deep As the five shifts that we’ve described play out, so will consumer insight from data. Companies that combine of the article changes in the E&M landscape. This industry is learn- these attributes and establish positions in high-growth ing from experience and becoming nimble; more and markets will be the most likely to succeed. + more, it will position itself to seize the opportunities that appear. The E&M industry is getting used to the new normal — a multispeed marketplace that expects and plans for disruption. Why do we say this? From the vantage point of to- day, it might seem that any strategy for the next five years will be rendered not just obsolete but irrelevant by 2018, let alone by 2021. Just think about how E&M 19 companies’ five-year pro forma plans from 2011 look today in light of the disruption we’ve seen. Even so, E&M companies are learning, acting, and, in many parts of the world, thriving. Each of the shifts we’ve highlighted can help companies plan and Resources do business better. The power of youth, the primacy of localized content, the resilience of a new kind of bundle, Edward H. Baker, “The Surprising Endurance of the Boob Tube,” s+b, Sept. 9, 2015: Author Michael Wolff’s argument about why television the deepening of developing markets, the potential for maintains its audience. new business models: All are taking place against the Christopher A.H. Vollmer and Matt Egol, “Five Rules for Strategic Part- backdrop of steadily growing industry-wide revenues. nerships in a Digital World,” s+b, Dec. 22, 2014: For leading companies For E&M companies with the right strategies and in E&M, the future depends on the capabilities and insights they can tap by working with others. insights, the opportunities are legion. And the shifts play We will be continuing the conversation around the Global Entertainment to the strengths of companies with big market positions, and Media Outlook 2016–2020 at major industry conferences, on our capital they can invest, strong brands, and strength in websites, and in future articles. Topics could include deeper dives into understanding local tastes and preferences. If they make measurement, mobile, and privacy, as well as country-specific conver- sations. Go to www.pwc.com/outlook to get access to more Outlook the right calls, incumbents can position themselves to information and subscription options. capitalize on the next phase of change and drive growth.
20 s+b special report INDIA’S strategy+business special report 2016 TRI
PLE PLAY s+b special report What do feature phones, regional newspapers, and smartphones have in common? They’re all vehicles for the country’s remarkable move to digital broadband. by Suvarchala Narayanan 21
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