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Part October
COVID-19
The Changing Shape of the CPG Demand Curve 30
2020
HOME FOR
THE HOLIDAYS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
With fall spikes of confirmed cases of COVID-19 as well as low-level consumer confidence, traditional holiday plans that include
large gatherings are being shelved. Americans are finding new ways to celebrate holidays, which presents opportunities for retailers
and manufacturers that extend beyond 2020.
Halloween Sales Not Spooky
• Halloween candy sales surged in July, an early start to the season compared to previous years.
• July - October sales vs. YA are up 12% for holiday seasonal sales of chocolate and 4% for non-chocolate.
• Despite solid sales, more consumers report they’ll curb participation in trick or treating this year.
Outlook for Thanksgiving
• IRI proprietary research shows that fewer consumers will host or attend a Thanksgiving meal with extended family,
down from nearly half in 2019. Traveling out of state is less likely in 2020, as Americans will opt to stay home and
celebrate with immediate family.
• 2020 Thanksgiving turkey sales are projected to be strong, with an emphasis on smaller birds and cuts. Retailers
should promote chicken and other cuts of meat to appeal to smaller gatherings.
• Retailers and manufacturers have an opportunity to help consumers create excitement for the holidays by providing
recipes, merchandising and seasonal entertainment suggestions.
Winter Holidays Outlook
• Early indications for December holiday celebrations and growth spending suggest a similar impact as Thanksgiving,
with the exception that a segment of consumers plan to spend less on December holiday gifts than last year.
• Retailers with omnichannel capabilities will be the beneficiaries of holiday spending, both for gifts and groceries.
• In anticipation of uncertain holiday spend, retailers have started the holiday season earlier this year. Winter displays
and assortment are widely available as of mid-October.
• Typical celebratory on-premise consumption will suffer due to socializing restrictions. CPG retail will benefit from the
shift to in-home celebrations.
• Retailers have an added opportunity to support gift-giving this year as consumers seek to give the gift of a celebration
with gourmet and specialty items. Items such as candy, baking and liquor will contribute to seasonal sales lift.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
With COVID-19 Cases Surging and Consumer Confidence
Low, Holidays in the U.S. Will Look Different in Late 2020
of Consumers Surveyed in October Expect the Length
of the Health Crisis to Last More Than 12 Months
Late October daily cases of
COVID-19 hit record highs: 42%
41%
85K+ on October 24.
35%
Q3 consumer sentiment is
74.9, down from a Q4 2019
level of 97.2. 22%
28% of consumers surveyed
25% 26%
October 16-18 are more 6% 20%
12%
concerned about COVID-19 6%
than they were last week, W2 3/20-3/22 W7 4/24-4/26 W12 5/29- W17 8/7-8/9 W21 10/16-
double the rate seen in mid- 5/31 10/18
September. 7-12 more months More than 12 months
Q: How long do you expect this health crisis to last before health concerns return to normal? Please select your best estimate based on your own opinion as of today; Base=Total Respondents
Source: IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22 to 10/16-28/2020, among National Consumer Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers; https://www.moodys.com
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
Halloween Candy Sales Started
Early and Remain Healthy
Sales Spikes of Nearly 200% for Seasonal
Halloween Chocolate Candy Occurred in July
and Remain Above 2019 Levels
Seasonal Chocolate
Halloween Candy
Seasonal Non-Chocolate
Halloween Candy
Halloween YTD (7.26 – 10.4)
Halloween YTD (7.26 – 10.4)
Source: IRI POS Total U.S. MULO + C
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
Who Will Eat the Candy?
of households with kids aged 6-12
will go trick or treating to a similar
number of homes as they did last
year, and even fewer in cities
say they won’t go at all due to
COVID-19, and some others will only
go to a few pre-planned homes
plan to give out treats to trick-or-
treaters this year; two-thirds of those
who usually buy candy / treats are
going to buy less this year, with city
dwellers even more likely to buy less
Source: IRI Survey fielded 10/16-28/2020, among National Consumer Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
Pre-Pandemic, Fall and Winter Holidays See Strongest Sales Lift Across Total
Store; With Fewer On-Premise Options in 2020, CPG Sales Will Increase
Since COVID-19, Large Gathering Holidays Saw Slightly Lower Lift
vs. YA, While Mother’s Day / Father’s Day Were Bigger for CPG Sales
Holiday Total Store Growth and Lift / MULO
Total Tracked 5yr
20% CAGR = +1.6%
% Holiday Sales Lift in MULO
15% 2019 - Christmas
10%
2019 - Easter
2019 - Thanksgiving
2020 - Mother’s Day
5% 2019/2020 - NYE
2020 - Father’s Day
2019 - Labor Day
2019 - July 4th
2020 - Valentine’s Day 2020 - July 4th
0% 2020 - Labor Day
2019 - Father’s Day
2019 - Memorial Day 2019 - Halloween
2020 - Memorial Day 2020 - Super Bowl
-5% 2019 - Mother’s Day
-10%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
2015-2019 Holiday CAGR (%)
Holiday Lift is defined as % difference between average holiday week and 52 week average for pre-COVID holidays. For post-COVID holidays, Lift defined as %
difference between average holiday week and average of two prior weeks for post-COVID holidays. Easter 2020 excluded due to timing at the start of the pandemic.
Source: IRI POS Data. MULO. IRI Consulting analysis.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
Resetting the Holiday Table: COVID-19 Is Dampening the Holiday Spirit, With More
Indicating They Are Not Looking Forward to the Holidays Than Are This Year
State of Mind About November / December Holiday Season This Year
Worried that celebrations will
cause a spike in COVID-19 cases 32%
Not looking forward to the holidays
the way I usually would, since I won’t
be able to celebrate with others as 31%
much as usual due to COVID-19
Worried about whether I’ll be able to afford 26% among those currently
the type of celebration I usually have 11% furloughed / laid off
Looking forward to having something
to celebrate after a stressful year 22%
Feeling about the same as last
year; not expecting the holidays 17%
to be any different this year
Feeling optimistic that things will
be back to normal by then 11%
Source: IRI Survey fielded 9/4-9/6 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
Only 29% Expect to Host or Attend a Thanksgiving Meal With
Extended Family Who Do Not Live With Them vs. 48% in 2019
Median Number of People at the Main Thanksgiving Meal
Is Expected to Be 5 This Year, Down From 8 Last Year*
Thanksgiving Last Year vs. This Year
Q: Next, please think about the Thanksgiving holiday. How did you celebrate it last year, and how
are you likely to celebrate this year (although it's still a couple months away)?
Base=Total Respondents
Host or attend a meal 48%
with extended family
who do not live with me 29%
Prepare a special meal 27%
just for myself /
my household 34%
Host or attend 9%
a “Friendsgiving”’
meal with friends 4%
Travel out of my state to 7%
attend a celebration at
someone else's home 3% 2019 2020
Source: IRI Survey fielded 9/4-9/6 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers; *10/16-18/2020 survey.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
Expect to Spend MORE on
Groceries for Thanksgiving
Higher Prices 1 in 5 plan to shop over 3 days earlier than last year,
and Home either to avoid crowds or out-of-stocks.*
Cooking Will
Mean Steeper Expectiing Celebrating at Creating a full
Grocery prices for
groceries to
home rather
than going
meal myself
(last year others
Spend for be higher than
in the past
to a relative /
friend's house
provided parts
of the meal)
Some,
But a Greater
Percentage
Will not host Will be making a Will likely host
Report They’ll any guests full meal on a a smaller
this year budget because gathering
Spend Less budget is tight this year
Because They 22% of those who plan to spend less will buy a smaller
Won’t Host turkey and 15% will not buy a whole turkey.*
Expect to Spend LESS on
Groceries for Thanksgiving
Source: IRI Survey fielded 9/4-9/6 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers; *10/16-18/2020 survey.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
Smaller, Higher Quality Birds Offered in 2019; 2020 Promises More
of the Same, With Many Households Cooking a Feast for the First Time
In 2020, roasting meats have seen a boom during the pandemic, with turkey enjoying
some of that bounce especially early-on. During the pandemic, more households buy
whole bird turkeys, with strongest growth among younger and lower-income.
Total CPG – Dollar Sales Trends
Total Year November 2019 Oct. – Dec. 2019 Pandemic Period
2019 (Thanksgiving Season) (Year-End Holidays) 2020 (26 WE 9-6-20)
TOTAL TURKEY
$2,380MM
$670MM $1,040MM $1,090MM
% Change vs. YA
-1.1% 2.0% 0.1% 30.7%
TURKEY WHOLE BIRD
$570MM $450MM $540MM
$40MM
% Change vs. YA
-1.8% 0.8% -1.2% 99.8%
Source: IRI Multi-Outlet sales data including both random and fixed weight items, fresh and frozen
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 102020 Could Mean a New Generation of Thanksgiving Hosts and Ample
Opportunity for Years to Come to Reinstitute Traditions Centered on Turkey
• Multiple celebrations, as only 29% of consumers
expect to gather with extended family for the fall
holidays
• Emphasis on traditions, including turkey, as
cornerstone of the Thanksgiving season; 22% of
Americans are looking forward to having something
to celebrate
• Turkey sales are expected to be strong, with focus on
smaller birds and/or cuts. Retailers should also
promote chicken and other cuts of meat for smaller
holiday meals
• Turkeys and roasting meats also mean value to many
consumers looking to stretch their meal dollar;
marketing messages should focus on leftovers and
multiple meals out of one meat purchase
Source: IRI Survey fielded 9/4-9/6 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11As With Thanksgiving, Americans Are Most Likely to Stay Home
and Celebrate With Immediate Family for December Holidays
December Holidays 2019
2020
Host or attend a celebration with 48%
extended family not living with me 32%
Buy gifts for others 39%
outside my household 31%
35%
Buy gifts for myself/my household
31%
Prepare a special celebration 27%
just for myself / my household 32%
Host or attend a 10%
celebration just with friends 5%
Travel out of my state to attend a 8%
celebration at someone else's home 4%
Look for new products / inspiration 6%
to make an extra special out-of-
the-ordinary holiday meal 5%
Source: IRI Survey fielded 9/4-9/6 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers; 10/16-18/2020 survey.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12Expect to Spend MORE
While Prices on Groceries for
and Increased December Holidays
Consumption
Will Have
Some Expect prices to
be higher than
Will be at
home more,
Will do more
cooking at home
Spending in the past in general rather than eating
out for the main
More for holiday meal
Holiday
Groceries, a
Greater Cutting back to Will not host any Will likely
save money guests this year host a smaller
Percentage gathering
this year
Report They’ll
Cut Back to
Expect to Spend LESS
Save Money on Groceries for
December Holidays
Source: IRI Survey fielded 9/4-9/6 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13With Smaller
Gatherings and
Less Travel, Many
Consumers Report
They’ll Be Spending
Less on Gifts for
December Holidays
This Year Gourmet and
specialty food items
are great gift options
for any size budget.
Manufacturers can
adopt seasonal,
14%
festive packaging for
greater gifting appeal.
Merchandising is a
expect to spend MORE than last year way for retailers to
25%
showcase their
offerings and should
promote multiple
expect to spend LESS than last year items for gift baskets.
Source: IRI Survey fielded 9/4-9/6 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers; Q: You mentioned you'd be buying gifts for yourself or others
for the holidays in December this year. Do you expect to spend more, about the same, or less on gifts compared to last year? Base=Those Buying Gifts for December Holidays
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14In Large Format Stores, Baking, Liquor, Meat and
Gifts Are Big Drivers of Year-End Holiday Sales
Year End Holiday Sales Lift Drivers Contribution to Total Uplift
THANKSGIVING CHRISTMAS
$ sales % contrib. to $ Sales % Contrib.
Aisle Aisle
% uplift Total lift % Lift to Total Lift
Total 7.0% Total 13.5%
Baking 73.8% 23.5% Candy 70.8% 12.7%
Dairy 19.9% 19.7% Liquor 38.0% 11.9%
Turkey 990.0% 18.1% Dairy 20.0% 10.2%
Liquor 18.3% 11.1% Baking 62.2% 10.2%
Smoked Ham 354.0% 7.7% Beef 31.0% 5.4%
Meals – Stuffing Mixes Misc. General Merch
17.7% 7.4% 55.2% 4.5%
& Soup – Cookware, Candles
Foils, Wraps, Bags 52.3% 5.9% Fragrance 357.5% 4.3%
Misc. General Merch – Smoked Ham 367.4% 4.1%
34.5% 5.5%
Cookware & Candles Cookies & Crackers 19.2% 2.7%
Bakery 13.0% 5.3% Carbonated Soft
14.3% 2.6%
Condiments & Sauces 15.8% 4.6% Drinks
Source: IRI POS Data, MULO. IRI Consulting analysis; Holiday Lift = % difference between average holiday wk and 52 wk average for pre-COVID-19 holidays. 2019 holidays. Thanksgiving = 2 WE 12-1; Christmas = 2 WE 12-29,
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15Shoppers Plan to Spend Less Across Channels, Especially
Drug and Local Small Businesses; E-Commerce Will Gain
December Holiday-Related Spending on Groceries,
Decorations and Gifts vs. Last Year by Retailer Type
Spend MORE
Mass 19% Than Last Year
Merchandise 11% Spend LESS
Than Last Year
17%
Grocery
11%
c
14%
Club 8%
17%
Drug
15%
Dollar Stores
Independent / 18%
Small Shops 7%
15%
Online 18%
Source: IRI Survey fielded 9/4-9/6 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16Pre-COVID-19, Foodservice Accounted for More Than Half the Food Dollar;
Even in a Good Year, More Holiday Spending Shifts to At-Home Consumption
Food Away From Home Food At Home
Total U.S. Food at Home (FAH) vs. Food Away From Home (FAFH) Sales ($B)
$139B $135B $144B $140B $142B $144B $133B $138B $138B $146B
2019 $128B $122B
73 71 75 74 74 75 69 71 69 72
64 64 (49%)
(50%) (53%) (52%) (52%) (53%) (52%) (52%) (52%) (52%) (50%)
(52%)
64 58 66 64 68 66 68 69 64 67 69 74
(50%) (48%) (47%) (48%) (48%) (47%) (48%) (48%) (48%) (48%) (50%) (51%)
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Index to Prior Year Monthly Average
summer peak away from home holiday peak at home
FAFH 94 94 108 104 111 109 109 111 102 105 101 106
FAH 98 90 102 100 106 102 105 106 98 103 107 115
TOTAL 96 92 105 102 108 106 107 109 100 104 104 110
2020 $132B $131B $133B $123B $129B $135B $135B
54 Food away from home will take an additional hit as
67 68 $105B 48 57 61 62 cold weather meets indoor maximums imposed under
(51%) (52%) (40%) 35 (39%) (45%) (45%) (46%) COVID-19. COVID-19 resurgence means greater
(34%) restrictions on bars and restaurants. Expect at home
65 63 79 75 71 74 73 to benefit from reduced away from home and desire
(60%) 69 (61%) (55%)
(49%) (48%) (66%) (55%) (54%) to indulge after a stressful 2020.
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Index to Prior Year Monthly Average
FAFH 94 95 76 50 68 81 85 88
FAH 98 95 119 104 112 107 111 109
TOTAL 96 95 97 76 89 94 98 98
Source: USDA Monthly Sales of Food with taxes & tips; Includes food sales across store types; IRI Consulting analysis.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17Typical Spike in Restaurant Visits During Holidays and Winter Months Won’t Happen
This Year, But Takeout Can Still Play Important Role in Smaller Celebrations
• U.S. Market: Restaurant sales down 85% from March 18 forward.
• Over 60% of restaurants closed. Recovery began in June, but sales are at 55% of pre-COVID-19 run rate.
• Reduced dwell time reflects higher incidence of food to go.
Average
Dwell Time
100.4 112.9 100
100.0 Dollar Index vs. Oct 2019 Average Dwell Time
95.4 90
91.3
80
56.6
49.3 50.9 52.7 51.3 70
33.4 60
16.5 50
40
Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month Month
Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending Ending
10-31-2019 11-30-2019 12-31-2019 01-31-2020 02-29-2020 03-31-2020 04-30-2020 05-31-2020 06-30-2020 07-31-2020 08-31-2020 09-30-2020
Source: IRI On-Premise Daily Data; Index current dollars to benchmark of October 2019. Total Menu, Total U.S., All Day Parts; Casual Dining and Upscale/Fine Dining
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18Opportunities Are in Season for Manufacturers and Retailers
RETAILERS
MANUFACTURERS
• Offer special holiday packaging; promote • Make the most of in-store displays; utilize online
products as giftable. platforms to promote holiday marketing
messages.
• With many grappling with economic hardship,
promote holiday essentials; at the same time, • CPG retailers have opportunity to capture
premium products will appeal to shoppers dollars that would have gone to on-premise
looking to enhance holiday experiences. celebrating during the winter holiday season.
Promote at-home entertainment ideas.
• Online resources should include search engine
optimization for holiday themes, including • With on-premise dining curbed, retailers have
recipes and cooking tips, entertainment ideas, an opportunity to partner with local restaurants
and budgeting tips. for meal fulfilment or offer their own restaurant-
• Consider cross-promotions with other holiday style meals.
items, including complementary categories, • Promote giftable food and drinks; upsell with
cooking implements or tableware. “build-your-own-basket” items.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19Vivek Sankaran Ram Krishnan Brian Cornell
President & CEO, Albertsons Companies Global Chief Commercial Officer, PepsiCo CEO of Target
August 25, 2020 August 17, 2020 July 16, 2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20Insights and Strategic
Guidance for Better Decisions
IRI’s Online Resources Include Real-Time
Updates and Weekly Reports That Track
the Impact of the Virus on CPG and Retail
The IRI COVID-19 lmpact
Includes COVID-19 impact analyses, dashboards
and the latest thought leadership on supply chain,
consumer behavior and channel shifts for the U.S.
AND international markets.
IRI CPG Economic Indicators, Including
the IRI CPG Demand Index™, IRI CPG
Supply Index™ and IRI CPG Inflation
Tracker™
Accessible through the insights portal
to track the daily impact of COVID-19.
This includes top-selling and out-of-stock
categories across the country and
consumer sentiment on social media.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21IRI COVID-19 IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORTS (CLICK TO SEE FULL REPORT)
COVID-19: THE CHANGING SHAPE OF THE CPG DEMAND CURVE
SPECIAL COVID-19 SERIES: RECESSION PROOF YOUR BUSINESS
COVID-19 EMERGING POINT OF VIEW
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22NOW INCLUDES
IRI CPG Demand Index™
U.S., UK, FRANCE, ITALY,
GERMANY & NETHERLANDS
The IRI CPG Demand Index™ provides a
standard metric for tracking changes in spending
on consumer packaged goods. It measures
weekly changes in consumer purchases, by
dollar sales, against the year-ago period across
departments, including fixed and random weight
products, grocery aisles and retail formats. The
IRI CPG Demand Index™ is available for eight
U.S. regions, all U.S. states, UK, France, Italy,
Germany and the Netherlands.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23IRI CPG Channel Shift Index™
The IRI CPG Channel Shift Index provides a
standard metric for tracking changes (migration)
in spending on consumer packaged goods across
select channels. The index measures weekly
changes in consumer purchases by dollar sales
and product trips against the year-ago period for
edible and non-edible products. The index is
available for seven geographies—All Outlets,
Grocery, Club, Dollar, Drug, Mass and Total E-
Commerce.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24IRI CPG E-Commerce
Demand Index™
The IRI CPG E-Commerce Demand Index
provides a standard metric for tracking changes
in spending on consumer packaged goods
purchased online. The index measures rolling
quad-weekly changes in consumer purchases by
dollar sales against the year-ago period across
releasable edible and non-edible departments.
The index is available for three channels--Total
E-Commerce, Brick & Mortar E-Commerce and
Online E-Commerce, and two fulfillment types –
Click & Collect and Delivery / Shipment.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25Want to Be the First to Know?
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