How SA consumers have reacted to the re-opening of Liquor and changed their behavior across channels - COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail in ZA ...
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COVID-19 Impact on CPG & Retail in ZA How SA consumers have reacted to the re-opening of Liquor and changed their behavior across channels June 2020
Today’s Discussion
• COVID – 19 Update
• Latest Category Performance
• How Consumers reacted to Liquor re-opening
• Channel Switching during Lockdown
• IRI and BCG Global Update
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
Level 3 is in full swing and SA is taking advantage of
Liquor availability
• South Africans feel some relief from lockdown with the re-opening of liquor on 01 June 2020, ranking Liquor at the top
of the growth list this week
– Groceries growth was muted as consumers shifted spend to Liquor; 10% of LSM 1-6 and LSM 7-10’s spend was
apportioned to liquor, which is higher than the average share of 6-7%
– In the top 20 item ranking, LSM 1-6 preferred Beer, whereas Gin and Brandy were more popular amongst
LSM 7-10
– However, the opportunity to re-stock liquor cabinets benefited Gin, Whisky and Rum. Is this a boost Whisky needed
to remind consumers of an old favourite? Are these the first indications of Rum regaining popularity?
– Globally, Liquor performed well during lockdown and IRI will continue to track Liquor trends in SA in the coming
weeks
• Channel Switching during COVID-19 in SA during the first month of lockdown:
– Similar to the trends IRI has seen globally, the panic buying week and restriction of movement during lockdown
caused South Africans to change their shopping behavior in their channel and store format of choice
– Hypermarkets gained >10% share of trade in the panic-buying week as consumers looked to these stores for a
one-stop shop offering value, large packs and product range under one roof
– During lockdown, consumers have ‘stayed local’ and are choosing stores within close proximity to their homes
– Online sales increased >50%, a trend IRI expects to continue
– Forecourts and pharmacies have lost feet into store with less consumers filling up for petrol and less mall visits
– Covid-19 implications for retailers and manufacturers: the new shopper experience needs to assure shoppers of
store health and safety, the provision of products they can trust, targeted assortment and online shopping.
– A challenge for both retailers and brands will be retaining consumer loyalty, having shopped in new stores and
adopted new brands during the pandemic
• Traditional sales forecasting models need to be adapted and updated regularly to accurately take into account the
COVID-19 effect and the changing consumption patterns. IRI has developed a Machine Learning based algorithm that re-
evaluates each factor and enables accurate estimations of probable changes in COVID-19 wear-out effect on sales
patterns, as well as the potential effect of a second wave
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
COVID-19 Update
June 2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
SA now ranks at #22 in the world, moving up 8 places from last week
# Cases Deaths
1 USA 2 089 825 116 035
2 Brazil 805 649 41 058
3 Russia 511 423 6 715
4 India 298 283 8 501
5 UK 291 409 41 279
6 Spain 289 787 27 136
7 Italy 236 142 34 167
8 Peru 214 788 6 109
9 Germany 186 795 8 851
//
7,609,728 globally 424,084 globally
+29% vs. Previous update +17% vs. previous update
22 South Africa 58 568 1 284
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
SA COVID-19 Timeline
Apr 2 Apr 15
Global Global June 11
Mar 23 cases: cases: May 19 June 1 1m tests
Jan 11 21-day 1m 2m Announce Alcohol conducted
China lockdown ment that sales in SA
May 14 open
reports Mar 11 announced
Mar 27
May 1 All online schools
first WHO Move to will May 24
First retail June 8
death declares Level 4 reopen on Announce
death in Apr 10 sales SA
Coronavirus st
South Lockdown Lockdown open (excl 1 June ment SA Cases:
outbreak a will move
Africa extended Liquor & 50k
Pandemic to Level 3
Tobacco)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020
Lockdown Level 5 LD Level 4 LD Level 3
Mar 5 Mar 26
First South May 28
Start of SA
African May 8 US reaches June 7 June 8
lockdown Apr 7
tests Global 100 000 Global Most Gr 7’s
Boris Johnson deaths and 12’s
positive for admitted to cases: cases:
COVID-19 4m 7m return to
hospital school
Dec 31
Mar 26
China alerts Apr 27 May 20 May 29
Global
WHO to many Mar 15 Global Global Global
cases:
unusual Ramaphosa cases: cases: cases:
500k
pneumonia declares a 3m 5m 6m
cases in National
Wuhan State of Current Data Week
Disaster
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
SA Covid-19 cases are increasing at an accelerating rate, whilst the testing
backlog is impacting the timing for test results
Source (11th June 2020):
https://sacoronavirus.gov.za/update-on-covid-19-11th-june-2020/ © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/investigations/100-days-of-covid-19-cases-are-increasing-at-the-highest-rate-since-outbreak-began-20200612
The easing of alcohol restrictions saw significant shopper demand in the first week,
as evidenced by long queues and significant sales
Many retailers implemented purchasing According to Massmart’s
Stores across SA limits on Monday June 1st, but were able Corporate Affairs Executive,
had estimated to relax these from Tuesday demand was higher than
sales in excess of during Black Friday, with
R250-million on A resurgence in demand occurred with
rumours of a renewed ban, the retailer seeing bigger
Monday, 1June basket sizes than normal
despite government
assurances to the contrary
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2020-06-02-south-africa-splurges-as-liquor-stores-reopen/#gsc.tab=0
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
https://ewn.co.za/2020/06/09/once-bitten-despite-assurances-some-citizens-believe-booze-ban-coming-again
Latest Category Updates
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
Edible and Non-Edible Groceries growth remain higher during lockdown than a year
ago, although muted in the last week as consumers shifted spending to Liquor
Total Edible & Non-Edible Groceries (excl. Liquor & Tobacco)
Weekly Actual Value sales
Last Yr This Yr
Lockdown growth vs. YA: +7%
22/03/2020 29/03/2020 05/04/2020 12/04/2020 19/04/2020 26/04/2020 03/05/2020 10/05/2020 17/05/2020 24/05/2020 31/05/2020 07/06/2020
Panic Lockdown
Lockdown Level 5 Lockdown Level 4
Buying Level 3
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10Grocery essentials remain key to the consumer’s pantry, and Ice Cream benefits
from the need for indulgence, competitive pricing and acceptable weather
Mar 29th Apr 5th Apr 12th Apr 19th Apr 26th May 3rd May 10th May 17th May 24th May 31st Jun 7th
Ice Cream
Yoghurt
Wheat Flour
% Value
Baking Ingredients growth vs. YA
Sugars & Sweetners
Dry Pasta Scale:
Rice
Spreads >100
Spices & Seasoning
70 to 100
Cereals
Condiments & Sauces 50 to 70
Frozen Veg/Potato 30 to 50
Oil
11 to 30
Biscuits
Snacks 0 to 10
Canned Food -10 to 0
Cheese
-30 to -10
Frozen Meats
Fresh Meat -30 to -50
Confectionery
< -50
Maize
Bread
Soup & Stock
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary.
© 2020 11 Inc. (IRI).
Information Resources
Confidential and Proprietary.Shoppers continue to purchase health and hygiene products.
CSD’s did not benefit from the increased sales of Spirits over the latest week
Mar 29th Apr 5th Apr 12th Apr 19th Apr 26th May 3rd May 10th May 17th May 24th May 31st Jun 7th
Soaps & Sanitiser % Value
Wipes growth vs. YA
Non-Edibles
Vitamins
Personal Care Scale:
Pet >100
Toilet Paper
70 to 100
Oral Care
Medicinal 50 to 70
Household Cleaning 30 to 50
11 to 30
0 to 10
-10 to 0
Beverages
Mar 29th Apr 5th Apr 12th Apr 19th Apr 26th May 3rd May 10th May 17th May 24th May 31st Jun 7th
-30 to -10
Milk
Coffee & Tea -30 to -50
Juice < -50
CSDs & Water
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12While Liquor categories top the growth ranking over the latest week, Baking &
Indulgent categories also remain popular
Top Value Growth Categories vs. Year Ago by Week
Panic Buying Latest 6 weeks of Lockdown
Mar 22nd Mar 29th May 3rd May 10th May 17th May 24th May 31st Jun 7th
Vitamins Wheat Flour Baking Ingredients Soaps & Sanitiser Baking Ingredients Baking Ingredients Baking Ingredients Spirits
Wipes Dry Pasta Soaps & Sanitiser Wheat Flour Ice Cream Ice Cream Ice Cream Wine
Soaps & Sanitiser Vitamins Ice Cream Sugars & Sweetners Sugars & Sweetners Wheat Flour Soaps & Sanitiser FABs
Toilet Paper Baking Ingredients Spices & Seasoning Rice Wheat Flour Soaps & Sanitiser Wheat Flour Ice Cream
Medicinal Frozen Veg/Potato Sugars & Sweetners Baking Ingredients Soaps & Sanitiser Sugars & Sweetners Yoghurt Beer
Dry Pasta Canned Food Cheese Spices & Seasoning Spices & Seasoning Biscuits Biscuits Soaps & Sanitiser
Frozen Veg/Potato Spreads Yoghurt Oil Oil Yoghurt Frozen Veg/Potato Yoghurt
Canned Food Cereals Biscuits Soup & Stock Spreads Snacks Spices & Seasoning Wheat Flour
Spreads Medicinal Condiments & Sauces Yoghurt Dry Pasta Spices & Seasoning Condiments & Sauces Baking Ingredients
Household Cleaning Rice Spreads Dry Pasta Condiments & Sauces Confectionery Cheese Sugars & Sweetners
Non-Edible Baking/Indulgent Edible Groceries Liquor
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13First Week of Liquor
Re-opening
Data to week ending Sunday 07 June 2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14Pre-lockdown, SA consumers stocked up more on wine and spirits in formal retail,
however, wholesale declined and will continue to remain under pressure whilst on-
consumption is prohibited
While the US and Aus also saw spikes in Liquor sales in the lead up to their lockdown, the spike was less pronounced as there was no total ban
Value Growth % YA
Wk. 29.03.2020 Total Liquor
+42% +47% +85% +12% +26%
Unit Growth % YA
Wk 22.03.2020
Unit Growth % YA
Wk 15.03.2020
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15As expected, all Liquor categories experienced strong growth in the first week as
consumers re-stocked their cabinets
Wine recorded higher sales than during Black Friday week LY
Value growth % vs. YA
Spirits sales matched Black Friday sales Wk. Ending 07/06/2020
Total Liquor
+76% +106% +91% +69% +41%
Q1: 6.5% Q1: 8.4% Q1: 8.9% Q1: 3.4% Q1: 5.2%
Note: Black Friday promotional duration differ amongst retailers and may impact the numbers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16Gin, whisky and rum were the spirits of choice when liquor re-opened
Value growth % vs. YA
Wk. Ending 07/06/2020
Gin Whisky Brandy Vodka Rum Other Spirits*
+255% +106% +78% +65% +120% +68%
Q1: 46% Q1: 4.5% Q1: 7.9% Q1: -8.5% Q1: -1% Q1: 2.8%
*Tequila, Liqueur, Digestif, Shooters, Cream
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17Both LSM groups apportioned 10% of their spend to Liquor, shifting value out of
Edible Grocery categories
Value share of Total Spend
LSM 1-6 LSM 7-10
7 6 6 6
6
9 10 9 10 Liquor
8 9 6
8 8
33 36 32 37 GM / Other
33 32 35
34
9 10 9 Fresh / Frozen /
8
10 10 9 Perishable
8
Non-Edible
46 45 47 45 Groceries
42 40 42 40
Dry Groceries
Last Yr wk Panic Lockdown Latest wk Last Yr wk Panic Lockdown Latest wk
(09/06/2019) Buying wk wks (07/06/2020) (09/06/2019) Buying wk wks (07/06/2020)
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18Compared to a year ago, LSM 1-6 sales were higher on Flavoured Alcoholic
Beverages and Wine, whereas LSM 7-10 purchased more Spirits and Wine
Value share of Liquor Spend
LSM 1-6 LSM 7-10
15 11 14 13 Fabs
20 18
23 21 20
28 28
27 Beer
23 25 24
13
15 15
Wine
44 40 43 40 43
38
Spirits
Yr ago wk Panic Latest wk Yr ago wk Panic Latest wk
Buying wk Buying wk
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19Top 20 Item Ranking by LSM Group: Brandy, Whisky & Cognac feature in the
LSM 7-10 ranking, while LSM 1-6 prefer Spirit Coolers
Total Liquor
LSM 1-6 LSM 7-10
Wine did not
feature in the top
20, however
when sold, was
dominated by
box formats
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20Online retailers saw a major surge in orders during lockdown, despite order
fulfillment being delayed to post Level 4 restrictions easing
Threefold increase in online
orders since lockdown began.
Highest increase in orders in Gauteng.
70% growth vs. YA for the month of April.
Over R1million in online orders
during May 2020, as well as an increase
in the demand for online wine shops.
DryDock Liquor: over 100,000 online
orders during one week.
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/buying-wine-online-2020-5
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21
https://news.wine.co.za/News.aspx?NEWSID=36479&CLIENTID=&SPOTLIGHTID=Following the move to Level 3, online retailers battle through an order backlog, whilst
orders continuing to stream in
Supply shortages and curtailment of permissible delivery times (Mon – Thurs only) add to the constraints.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22While lockdown prompted a strong shift to online sales, we also saw a notable
increase in Direct to Consumer sales of alcohol
Manufacturers and wineries sell directly to the public, with many offering up to 30% discount on products, subsidising
delivery costs, or providing click and collect purchasing and promising quick delivery times
https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/hope-for-sas-wine-industry-as- © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23
government-pours-in-r6-billion-in-short-term-assistance-47534606Manufacturers have innovated to keep customers engaged and connected, as well
as giving back in times of need
Lucy Corne (aka the
Brewmistress) started
a viral trend called
#backyardbeerfest
at the start of
Craft Breweries in Cape Town banded lockdown, which
together to form the Brewers Soup gained strong traction
Collective and used their mash tuns across the globe Tops at Spar Wine
to make soup instead of beer Show offers entry
level online wine
courses in
Liquor stores, retailers, Many alcohol partnership with
and many wine farms manufacturers Cathy Marston –
hosted virtual interactive repurposed their Africa’s only Stage 2
wine tastings and production lines to Master of Wine
information sessions produce hand sanitiser (MW) student
with local winemakers
https://www.news24.com/fin24/Economy/winemakers-turn-to-zoom-tastings-to-survive-lockdown-20200425; https://wineshow.co.za/events/tops-at-spar-wine-show-cancelled
https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2020-05-07-making-soup-is-easier-than-beer-my-brew/; https://tamlynamberwanderlust.com/wine-farms-during-lockdown//
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/major-south-african-distilleries-distell-spier-wineries-producing-hand-sanitizers-in-light-of-covid-19-2020-3;
https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/lifestyle/2020-04-03-a-virtual-beer-fest-in-your-back-yard-heres-how-you-can-join-in-the-fun/; © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24A Google Trends Analysis shows a sharp rise in searches relating to ‘Alcohol’ in the
past week
The majority of searches are related to questions regarding regulations under Level 3, and concerns about the
possible reintroduction of the ban
South Africa
Search Trends over Time
Alcohol Top related queries:
Rumours of a
1. Alcohol South Africa
new ban
2. Alcohol ban
3. Lockdown alcohol
4. Alcohol ban South Africa
5. Alcohol in South Africa
11 March 202021 March 202031 March 2020 10 April 2020 20 April 2020 30 April 2020 10 May 2020 20 May 2020 30 May 2020
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=ZA&q=alcohol
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25Channel Switching During
Lockdown
Sample of Top End Retail data to 30 April 2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26Globally, consumers shifted their spend across channels. In France for example,
social distancing has accelerated growth of Convenience and Online and shoppers
prefer the proximity of local shops
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27In SA, Hypers attracted panic buying occasions with their large assortment offering
and bulk packs. Shoppers are ‘staying local’ and purchasing at their nearest stores
during lockdown 90
Value Share Movement by Channel
Axis not to Scale – Graph to illustrate share movement only
80
Pre Covid-19 Panic buying Apr20
70
*Axis not to scale*
12
*Axis not to scale*
60
10
50
40 8
30 6
20 4
1
0,9
2 0,8
10 0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0 0 0
Supermarket Pharmacy Hypermarket Branded Superette PFM Online
Source:
IRI Monthly & Weekly South African Top-End Retail EPOS data © 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28
Sample across Edible & Non-Edible Grocery categoriesPanic buying week: Hypermarkets increased share of trade by >10% with their large offering and
offering a one-stop-shop experience. Online picked up significantly, but long delivery times meant
less edible groceries purchased through this channel.
Panic Buying Week (w/e 29/03/2020)
• Hypermarket’s contribution to trade saw growth • Online’s share of market grew 40%
of 13% during panic-buying week • This was driven by non-edible
• Hypermarkets were a destination store for groceries as consumers stocked up
consumers to stock up on the better value on toiletries and hair care
offerings and wide range offered across
categories
• Petroleum Food Courts (PFMs) lost a third of • Pharmacy dropped 10% share of
their market share as consumers elected to trade as consumers moved spend
shop elsewhere in their search for value and to one-stop destinations and online
broad range
Source:
IRI Monthly & Weekly South African Top-End Retail EPOS data © 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29
Sample across Edible & Non-Edible Grocery categoriesLockdown April - Branded Superettes saw significant growth as consumers were forced to shop
local. Online also continued to gain presence, but Pharmacy and Convenience don’t offer the
one-stop- shop experience to consumers who are reducing movement
Lockdown (April 2020)
• Online’s contribution to trade up 50% vs. • Branded Superettes (neighbourhood
pre-COVID-19 convenience retail and branded
• Still driven predominantly by non-edible spaza) up by a quarter as travel
grocery, but edible grocery also picks up as restrictions and work-from-home force
online offerings improve and long delivery consumers to shop closer to home
times shorten
• Lower demand for petrol drives less traffic in • Pharmacy impacted by trading limitations
PFM’s resulting in a 10% drop in share of and shoppers avoiding malls result in 25%
market loss of market share during first month of
lockdown
Source:
IRI Monthly & Weekly South African Top-End Retail EPOS data © 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30
Sample across Edible & Non-Edible Grocery categoriesChannel Switching and What it Means for Retailers and Manufacturers
Revise your Range and
1 Retail Opportunity 2 Assortment Strategy
2 Online Demand
• Build loyalty through the safety of one-stop • Shifting channels and store formats require a • Online will increase faster everywhere but
shop revisit of your range and assortment strategy. the share is still small. Delivery complexity
and profitability constrains growth, which is
• Optimise the balance of convenience; • Is the value offering sufficient, do I have the dependent on retail investment.
respond to broader range of shopper right pack sizes and formats and am I
behaviours across channels, investments in catering to niche markets who would have • Retailers will reallocate space and resources
e-commerce and online engagement travelled to speciality stores? to solidifiy Click & Collect infrastructure.
• Local marketing may benefit as international
trade is reduced
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31COVID-19 Category Impacts Growths from around the Globe Global data up to 05 June 2020
IRI and BCG Share the Latest Global Purchase Trends Amid COVID-19
IRI is continuing to collaborate with our partners at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) to analyze the latest
consumer purchase trends in Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, U.K. and U.S. We just
updated the report, “Consumer Spending Tracker: COVID-19 Impact,” to capture the most recent insights.
Key highlights from the research include:
• As more countries in Europe and the United States begin to loosen COVID-19 restrictions, consumer spend patterns remain mostly
unchanged – this is reflected in consumer purchases in France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, UK and the U.S.
• In most geographies, sales remain elevated for edible categories, while demand for nonedible products vary across countries, e.g., growth for
paper products remains high in the U.S., but less so elsewhere, while Beauty is strong in Netherlands and New Zealand, but declining in
other countries.
• E-commerce continues to show strong growth over the last year in the U.S., Italy, France and Spain. After share shifted more to e-commerce
in the initial stages of the pandemic, it has remained at a steady elevated level.
• In the U.S., consumers continue to make larger more pantry stocking trips than a year ago. At the same time, consumers have relaxed trip
frequency slightly, starting to return to small trips vs. prior weeks of the pandemic.
• Loosened restrictions in some areas are having very marginal impact. New Zealand exhibits a softer growth level of ~10% (vs. 20%) following
wider reopening measures. Meanwhile, U.S. states that reopened earlier have marginally softer trends in non-beverage edible categories
than the rest of the U.S.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 34
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25Insights and Strategic
Guidance for Better Decisions
IRI’s Online Resources Include Real-Time
Updates and Weekly Reports Which Track
the Impact of the Virus on CPG and Retail
The IRI COVID-19 Info Portal
Includes COVID-19 impact analyses, dashboards
and the latest thought leadership on supply chain,
consumer behavior, channel shifts for the U.S.
AND international markets
The COVID-19 Dashboard and
The IRI CPG Demand Index™
Accessible through the insights portal
and tracks the daily impact of COVID-19.
This includes the new IRI CPG Demand
Index™, top selling and out of stock
categories across countries, and
consumer sentiment on social media.
© 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 42SA Grocery sales have increased by ~7% during lockdown, consumer behavior has changed
rapidly and we are heading into uncertain times. Demand forecasting will be impacted
Evolving IRI Demand Forecasting Solutions for COVID-19
Traditional sales forecasting models need to be adapted and updated regularly to take into account the COVID-19 effect
and the changing consumption patterns, accurately. IRI has developed a Machine Learning based algorithm that re-
evaluates the assessment of each factor and enables more accurate estimations of probable changes in COVID-19 wear
out effect on sales patterns, and the potential effect of a second wave
Two potential short-term consumption scenarios would lead to key Model outcome and basic scenario
differences in implications for Food & Beverage brands and retailers
weekly_Incidents Value Forecasting
4 000 If COVID-19 outburst stops here:
Thousands
1 Virus Effectively Contained 2 Two Virus Spikes in 2020
3 500 • Category will eventually decline by -13.6% in rest
3 000 of 2020 vs 2019
2 500 • Total 2020 vs 2019 will be negative by -1.7%
CPG Consumption –
Monthly YoY Growth 2 000
(Conceptual)
1 500
1 000
Scenario 1: Infection and death rates Scenario 2: Covid-19 incidence rates 500
slow significantly from July through slow before another virus breakout in 0
Sept and remain low through 2020 Q4 as illness rates spike again
Contact us for more information © 2019 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 43© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 44
CONTACT US IRI South Africa
Level 1, Block D, Aintree Park
FOR MORE Doncaster Road, Kenilworth
Cape Town, 7708
INFORMATION +27 21 700 7420
Follow IRI on Twitter: @IRIworldwide
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