How the e-commerce landscape has evolve d in the last 18 months - August 2021
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How the e -comme rc e landscap e has evolve d in the last 18 months August 2021
“E-commerce got a big boost from the pandemic. […] “During 2020, almost half of consumers made a new
There has been a real shift and adoption of digital and online purchase that they previously had only made in-
embracing of technology that perhaps we have not seen store. […] E-commerce has seen five years of growth in
before.” just twelve months.”
Oct-2020 Jul-2021
“Today’s e-commerce landscape is almost “In-store retail sales fell when the pandemic forced
unrecognizable compared to how it looked just over a consumers to stay home, while e-commerce boomed.
year ago. […] Online retail sales as a % of total retail Following a 25.7% surge in 2020, to USD 4.2tn, we
sales were sitting at around 19% in February 2020. A expect e-commerce sales worldwide to climb a further
year later, it had skyrocketed to close to 35%.” 16.8% this year.”
May-2021 Jul-2021
The last 18 months have been an accelerator and game changer for e-commerce. Financial and
operational metrics have significantly improved, as has the M&A environment. In the medium to long
term, we expect e-commerce to sustainably benefit while in the short term growth and profitability
might suffer in light of last year’s COVID-19 driven growth and shortages in the supply chain.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 How the e-commerce landscape has evolved in the last 18 months
2 GCA Altium is the #1 e-commerce M&A advisor
3 Get in touch
4 Appendix: Valuation overview
3
1 How the e-commerce landscape has evolved in the last 18 months
HOW THE E-COMMERCE LANDSCAPE HAS EVOLVED IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS …
Positive development across all product verticals Impact on three levels
Strong growth of revenue … REVENUES / • Strong growth since beginning of the pandemic
KPIS • KPIs strongly improving (CAC, re-purchase, AOV, etc.)
• Growth for most product categories ✓✓✓
… driven by first-time customers and increased re- • Challenge has shifted to the supply chain
purchase rate of existing customers …
MARKET • Offline players: We get approached by many
… at substantially lower overall marketing
PERCEPTION traditional retailers which now want to strengthen
e-commerce inorganically ✓✓✓
and CAC costs …
• Consumers: Broadening customer base is here to stay due
… with lower rebates and thus higher gross margins…
to convenience and speed. However, risk that delivery
lags in logistics might damage reputation ✓✓
• Brands/producers: Looking to partner with leading
… leading to strong growth at higher EBITDA margins.
e-commerce players. Better relationship will lead to
better access going forward, also to key brands ✓✓✓
• PE investors: Highly increasing interest for niche
“E-commerce surged in March 2021, proving once again that
the shift in online shopping […] is not slowing down.”
e-commerce players due to acceptance of sustainable
e-commerce shift and increasing profitability ✓✓
Apr-2021 M&A • We expect e-commerce to sustainably benefit
• Short-term growth and profitability might suffer in light
“By 2025, e-commerce will account for >38% of retail sales.”
of last year’s COVID-19 driven growth and supply
chain shortages ✓✓
Jul-2021
• Crowded IPO pipeline might lead to disappointments
E-commerce market perception of all stakeholders has strongly improved
5
… AND HOW THIS IMPACTED THE M&A ENVIRONMENT
Higher valuations on EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA based on forward Sales/EBITDA driven by
the disrupting long-term effects of the pandemic, as well as positive growth and I
profitability expectations
Increased interest from financial investors due to growth and profitability
profile of attractive specialist e-commerce players in niche markets II
“Amazon fear” for market leaders in Europe almost disappeared due
to subsector specialization and differentiation III
Sharp IPO rebound and skyrocketing SPAC activity in 2020 have made
IPO and SPAC viable options next to M&A (although the crowded IPO IV
landscape might lead to disappointments in the next 6-12 months)
Exploding M&A activity in H1-2021 continuing in H2-2021. We expect
2021F to be a new record year V
Overall acceleration of processes with a significant amount being pre-empted at
attractive valuations VI
6
I HIGHER VALUATIONS AND II INCREASED INTEREST FROM FINA NCIAL INVESTORS
Higher valuations based on forward Sales/EBITDA Increased interest from financial investors
Peer group Multiple 20191) 20212) Change In 2019, we counted c. 20 Private Equity investors in
Europe looking at e-commerce/consumer deals
E-COMMERCE EV/Sales 0.8x 1.4x +75.0%
EV/EBITDA 14.4x 17.4x +20.8%
MARKETPLACE EV/Sales 3.9x 3.5x (10.3%) TODAY, WE COUNT >100 PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTORS
LOOKING AT E-COMMERCE/CONSUMER DEALS3)
EV/EBITDA 17.1x 20.7x +21.1%
CLASSIFIEDS EV/Sales 5.6x 11.6x +107.1%
EV/EBITDA 16.7x 21.7x +29.9%
Higher valuations are driven by fundamental effects of
Increased interest from financial buyers due to growth
the pandemic on e-commerce, as well as growth
and profitability profile of attractive e-commerce players
and profitability expectations
Note: 1) Median FY2020 multiple as of 13-Aug-2019; 2) Median FY2022 multiple as of 13-Aug-2021; 3) Overview of selected private equity
investors 7
III DISAPPEARING “AMAZON FEAR” AND IV IPO AND SPAC AS ALT ERNATIVE OPTIONS
Disappearing “Amazon fear” in Europe IPO and SPAC as viable options next to M&A
Global SPAC activity
# of SPAC IPOs
Explosive growth in 2020/21 430
SPAC gross proceeds raised (USDbn)
306
PRESENCE IN MOST SUBMARKETS BUT NOT
MARKET LEADER, SUCH AS … 178 158 104
110 76
Online furniture Online golf Online pharmacies
13 10 14
2017 2018 2019 2020 H1-2021
• Online shop selling and • Pan-European group • Online shops providing
shipping furniture and offering a comprehensive prescription and over- Global IPO activity
home furnishings in range of golf products in the-counter medications # of IPO
Europe DACH and UK • #1 online pharmacies in Explosive growth in 2021 1′147
IPO money raised (USDbn)
• #1 online destination • #1 European golf respective markets
for home and living e-commerce group
746
881
553
482
215
79 90 68 61
2017 2018 2019 2020 H1-2021
Both IPO and SPAC markets have seen increased activity
Specialist e-commerce market leaders with huge potential
and become viable options next to M&A. Crowded IPO
are exiting assets for investors
pipeline might lead to disappointments
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence 8
V INCREASE IN M&A ACTIVITY AND VI ACCELERATION OF PROCE SSES
Strong increase in M&A activity Acceleration of processes
# of e-commerce M&A transactions p.a. in Europe1) Examples of recent GCA Altium pre-emptive processes
GCA ALTIUM EXPECTS 2021 TO
BE A NEW RECORD YEAR JULY 2021
312
320 >320 PRE-EMPTIVE PROCESS WITH LESS THAN 2
299 WEEKS ELAPSING BETWEEN MARKET
288
271 APPROACH AND SIGNING
221
MAY 2021
177 TIGHT PROCESS WITH LESS THAN 6
WEEKS ELAPSING BETWEEN HITTING
THE MARKET AND SIGNING
JANUARY 2021
TIGHT PROCESS WITH LESS
THAN 6 WEEKS ELAPSING
BETWEEN KICK-OFF
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021YTD 20212) AND SIGNING
Continued and strong buyer/investor interest in the Increasing number of pre-emption processes mainly
e-commerce sector within European market with a related to enlarged buyer universe and lack of
record of 177 transactions in 2021 YTD high-quality assets
Note: 1) M&A and private placements within e-retailing sector with EUR >10m deal value; 2) Indicative extrapolation from YTD2021;
Source: Capital IQ as of 13-Aug-2021; GCA year-end e-commerce report; Mergermarket 9
E-COMMERCE IS OUTPERFORMING STOCK MARKETS
S&P 500 and DAX performance YTD vs. selected e-commerce, marketplaces and classifieds players
250.0%
Uptick Performance
Low
230.0% from low since Jan-2020
E-commerce (26.8%) +232.1% +105.3%
210.0%
Marketplaces (26.0%) +186.8% +60.8%
190.0% Classifieds (36.4%) +162.0% +25.6%
170.0% S&P 500 (31.3%) +168.5% +37.1%
DAX (36.9%) +156.3% +19.4%
150.0%
130.0%
110.0%
90.0%
70.0%
50.0%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
E-commerce Marketplaces Classifieds S&P 500 DAX
Wider subsector performance: 01-Jan-2020 to 13-Aug-2021
110.6%
71.0% 52.3% 45.4% 33.6% 31.1% 28.9% 25.4% 24.9% 24.2% 23.7% 7.3% 6.6%
(8.5%)
E-commerce Marketplaces Gaming Payment Gambling E-commerce Consumer/B2C Diversified Classifieds Other online Social Content Customer Travel
and marketing services and portals marketing networking and monetization acquisition
E-commerce and marketplaces outper- solutions communties
formed the other sectors since Jan-2020
Outperforming Underperforming
Source: Capital IQ as of 13-Aug-2021 10DEVELOPMENT OF VALUATION LEVELS
EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA NTM1) multiples have strongly improved
EV/Sales
2.0x 12.0x
Marketplaces
10.0x
1.7x
E-commerce
8.0x
1.4x
6.0x
1.1x
Classifieds
01-Jan-20 13-Aug-21 Delta 4.0x
E-commerce 0.8x 1.5x +73.6%
0.8x
Marketplaces 4.9x 4.7x (4.0%) 2.0x
Classifieds 7.0x 8.9x +26.4%
0.5x 0.0x
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
EV/EBITDA
24.0x 30.0x
Marketplaces
28.0x
22.0x
26.0x
20.0x
E-commerce
24.0x
18.0x 22.0x
16.0x 20.0x
Classifieds
01-Jan-20 13-Aug-21 Delta 18.0x
14.0x
E-commerce 15.9x 18.0x +13.0% 16.0x
12.0x Marketplaces 21.3x 22.2x +3.9%
14.0x
Classifieds 19.3x 23.1x +19.6%
10.0x 12.0x
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
Note: Delta calculation based on actual multiples, not rounded to one decimal; About You, Bike24 and Victorian Plumbing not included as
not yet covered by analysts due to only recent IPO; 1) NTM = Next twelve months
Source: Capital IQ as of 13-Aug-2021 11MEDIA AND ANALYSTS EXPECT CONTINUED GROWTH OF E -COMMERCE BUSINESSES
E-commerce
“Pandemic-driven demand for e-commerce accelerated sales growth for “[…] Increasing adoption of Internet, user-friendly interface of web
every product category, and Amazon generated more than one-quarter of portals, enhanced discounts and offers, changing consumer patterns and
US e-commerce sales for every category other than auto/parts.” purchasing power are aiding the growth of e-commerce.”
May-2021 Mar-2021
“While we anticipate some online sales […] could revert to brick-and-
“Retailers are scrambling to invest in their websites as the pandemic
mortar players, we believe the ongoing shift will continue to power
moves sales of clothing, food and general merchandise online.”
Amazon's healthy long-term growth trajectory.”
Aug-2020
Jun-2021
“In the world of e-commerce, there’s one undisputed leader: Amazon. As “E-commerce has seen accelerated sales growth in the United States, and
consumers changed their buying behavior in 2020, the retail giant’s around the world, in 2020. [… ] We are now six months into the new year
financial results revealed a 38% increase in net sales.” of 2021 and e-commerce has continued to increase.”
Apr-2021 Oct-2020
Share price in USD
4’500
M’Cap of
4’000 USD >1.8tn
M’Cap of
3’500 USD >1.5tn
3’000 M’Cap of
USD >1.0tn
2’500 +74%
2’000
1’500
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
Source: Capital IQ as of 13-Aug-2021 12LANDMARK CONSUMER/E-COMMERCE DEALS IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS
1)
entered a
partnership with
acquired
EV: n/a
acquired EV: EUR 632m
acquired
acquired acquired a
33% stake in acquired
Jun-2020
Jul-2021
EV: EUR 2.2bn
EV: n/d EV: n/d EV: n/d EV: n/d
Feb-2021
Jun-2020 Sep-2020 May-2021 Aug-2021
Jan-2020 Aug-2021
entered a acquired
acquired
partnership with
acquired a
49% stake in acquired the online
EV: n/a business of EV: n/d EV: n/d
acquired
Nov-2020 May-2021 July-2021
EV: n/a
Jun-2020
EV: EUR 5.7bn EV: EUR 1.9bn
Aug-2020 Mar-2021
Strong M&A activity in the e-commerce and D2C sectors with several landmark deals
Note: 1) Velocity Acquisition Corporation is a special purpose acquisition company formed by &vest, an investment platform founded and
led by CEO Doug Jacob; Source: GCA Altium research; Mergermarket 132 GCA Altium is the #1 e-commerce M&A advisor
GCA ALTIUM OVERVIEW
Leading global investment bank providing strategic M&A and capital markets advisory services
Global e-commerce sector team
Alex Grünwald Thomas Egli Tobias Schultheiss Sam Fuller John Lambros Josh Wepman Rupert Sadler
Zurich Zurich Frankfurt London New York New York New York
Managing Director; Managing Director; Managing Director;
Managing Director; Managing Director;
Member of Executive Co-Head of Digital, Co-Head of Digital, Managing Director Managing Director
Head of Consumer Europe President GCA US
Management Europe Media & Internet Europe Media & Internet Europe
Highly active in all key disruptive areas of the technology market Full-suite of M&A and capital market advisory services
Digital media Software Tech-enabled services
• Marketplaces • Vertical application • Marketing services ~60% ~65% ~35% ~80%
• E-commerce • Commerce and retail • Information services TRANSACTIONS HAVE SELL-SIDE BUY-SIDE REPEAT OR
• Digital content & IP technology • Professional services TECH COMPONENT TRANSACTIONS TRANSACTIONS REFERRED CLIENTS
• Marketing and advertising • Data and analytics • IT services
technology • Asset maintenance and • Customer care and claims
• Music, video and social repair services
• Gaming • Infrastructure ~50% ~50% >500 >100
CROSS-BORDER FINANCIAL SPONSOR TOTAL TRANSACTIONS DEBT TRANSACTIONS
65 142 47 TRANSACTIONS TRANSACTIONS IN LAST 3 YEARS IN LAST 3 YEARS
DEALS LAST 3 YEARS DEALS LAST 3 YEARS DEALS LAST 3 YEARS
Leading franchise in e-commerce and marketplaces
15A LEADING INDEPENDENT GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANK
Alexander Grünwald Thomas Egli
• Member of GCA’s Board of • Co-Head of Digital, Media &
Directors and Co-Head Europe Internet Europe
§
• Prior to joining GCA, Alexander •Tel
PriorAviv
to joining GCA, Thomas
led Marchfifteen, Austria's worked for Deutsche Bank in
leading technology fund Frankfurt and London
John Lambros
STOCKHOLM
LEEDS Sam Fuller Akikazu ‘Kaz’ Ida
• Member of GCA’s Board of • Head of Consumer Europe • Head of TMT and member of
Directors the Exec. Committee in Japan
MANCHESTER LONDON • More than 20 years of M&A
• Prior to joining GCA, John BIRMINGHAM experience having led a signi- • Prior to joining GCA, Kaz
worked for Morgan Stanley in FRANKFURT ficant number or both public worked for UBS and Dresdner
New York PARIS MUNICH and private transactions Kleinwort Wasserstein
LAUSANNE MILAN
KYOTO
NEW YORK ZURICH
SAN FRANCISCO TOKYO
TEL AVIV FUKUOKA NAGOYA
SHANGHAI
NEW DELHI OSAKA
Tobias Schultheiss
MUMBAI
Adrian Reed • Co-Head of Digital, Media &
Internet Europe
• More than 20 years of M&A Sunil Mehra
experience • Prior to joining GCA, Tobias was HO CHI MINH CITY
• More than 20 years of M&A
• Adrian has successfully a Director at DC Advisory in
experience
executed a number of high- Frankfurt and London
• Prior to joining GCA, Sunil
SINGAPORE
profile M&A transactions
worked for MAPE advisory and
Standard Chartered
500+ 400+ 80+ 24 13
Managing
employees bankers locations countries
Directors
16LEADING MID-MARKET CONSUMER & E-COMMERCE M&A ADVISOR WITH GLOBAL REACH
Leader in the European consumer & e-commerce
deal-making space
~50% GCA Altium
Rothschild & Co 19
23
CROSS-BORDER
Alantra 11
BNP Paribas 9
Lincoln International 9
UBS Investment Bank 8
Lazard 8
JPMorgan 7
Translink Corporate Finance 7
Citi 6
Source: Mergermarket (deals in Europe, deal valueUNIQUE TRACK RECORD IN CONSUMER & E-COMMERCE AND DIGITAL MEDIA
E-commerce Consumer Digital media
Building Bathroom Kitchenware Brokerage of Performance Fine arts,
materials equipment Online bike and interior premium mountain antiques and Used photo RV rental
e-retailer retailer retailer decoration property bikes luxury goods equipment marketplace
Online retailer D2C design Headphones, Data science
of bathroom Golf equip- and home loudspeakers Designer and marketing Stock media Insurance
products ment e-retailer furnishings and microphones Outdoor brand grills company company marketplace
Online D2C Online Online
Online printing marketplace for platform for Fashion Bikes for Audio systems education Insurance Online job
consumables metal posters luxury fashion accessories children for children portal marketplace classifieds
Online garden Online Online bike Luxury Luxury Online B2B Online Online
house marketplace marketplace retailer watchmaker watchmaker Jewelry classifieds classifieds classifieds
Note: Flag to the left: target; Flag to the right: acquirer Deals in 2021 18WHAT BUYERS ARE LOOKING FOR IN E-COMMERCE
Our experience from recent deals What buyers are looking for …
Growth
P P P P
Sustainable growth
Profitability
P P P P
Double digit (cash)
EBITDA margins
I II
Customers
What excites strategic buyers What excites financial buyers
P P P P
Attractive cohorts (low
✓ Access to loyal ✓ Credibility with customers churn and CAC, high
purchase frequency)
customer base ✓ Superior customer
✓ Additional distribution economics Sourcing
channel ✓ High top-line growth AND
P P P P
Gross margin
✓ Market leading position strong profitability development/share
✓ Strong digital capabilities ✓ USP against established of private label
✓ Good product, technology brands Credibility
and IP ✓ Good development during
P P P P
Credibility within its
the pandemic customer group key
✓ Strong management team for investors
19VALUATION LEVELS OF RECENT E-COMMERCE TRANSACTIONS LED BY GCA ALTIUM
Tight process with six weeks elapsing between hitting the market and signing Largest IPO ever recorded on London’s AIM
• Perfect Drive Sports Group is the leading golf e- • Leading UK-based online retailer of bathroom
commerce player in Europe products and accessories
• GCA Altium ran a structured pre-warming process • GCA Altium explored a dual track exit with the
approaching a narrow selection of the most primary focus on the IPO route and acted as sole
likely buyers independent financial advisor and NOMAD
• Bregal emerged as the frontrunner, submitting a • Holistic management and thorough preparation led
pre-emptive offer, followed by non-binding offers to the book being covered by >3x and the IPO being
Share price +35% YTD
of four other parties priced at the upper end of the range
EV/EBITDA 2020 EV/EBITDA 20211)
>15x >24x
Successful IPO at a premium valuation Tight process with three weeks elapsing between market approach and signing
• Leading European bike and sports e-commerce • Leading and fast-growing online retailer of
company, with the broadest bike offering focused bathroom and sanitary products in Germany,
on the premium segment offering a broad portfolio of >340k own and leading
• GCA Altium acted as strategic advisor to the branded products
shareholders on the private placement of 21.5m • GCA Altium managed a stealth process including a
shares with institutional investors ahead of the selective outreach to key potential bidders
listing, advised on the positioning of Bike24 for the • Holistic management of an intense and fast-paced
IPO and supported on the option program (1 week) due diligence process
EV/EBITDA 2021 Share price +21% YTD EV/EBITDA 2021
>18x >15x
Recent e-commerce transactions show strong investor appetite resulting in various pre-emptive processes and
attractive valuation levels
Note: 1) 2021 financials based on Barclays estimates
Source: Capital IQ as of 13-Aug-2021 20RELEVANT KPIs POTENTIAL BUYERS FOCUS ON …
Key metrics for e-commerce/D2C companies and importance for potential buyers
Market trends Traffic Shop/front-end Conversion Customers After sales Financials
% market growth % paid vs. Load times % conversion rate Repurchase rate Same/next day delivery % top-line growth
unpaid traffic
% online-share CPCs for # of exclusive and % cancellation rate Split existing and new # of SKUs and % EBITDA margin
growth paid channels total products customers/orders % on stock
9
% market share % direct traffic Scalability Drop out rate AOV Handling time % gross margin
Net promoter score Filtering functionality Response times CLTV to CAC ratio Return rate % cash conversion
% mobile Mobile friendliness Churn rate/customer NWC requirement
traffic share cohorts
Main buyer focus on top-line growth, gross and EBITDA margins, and customer economics. E-commerce/D2C
companies only attract interest if these KPIs/financials look attractive
Importance of criteria
Main focus (Full = high; empty = low) 21… AND WHAT THEY QUESTION IN M&A PROCESSES
• Internationalization strategy historically and going forward
• Development of online/offline share historically and in the future
Strategy • Lay out key initiatives of future growth plan
• Profitability of home/core market vs. international operations (P&L by country)?
• KPI benchmarking with peers?
Competition • Market shares in respective countries?
• How do you differentiate yourself from potential competitors (e.g. Amazon and Zalando)?
• How dependent is the company on management team?
Management/
• Is management willing to reinvest?
ownership • Willingness for financial/trade buyer?
• What are sourcing conditions and what is “secret sauce”?
Products/brands • Explain relevant competence, product strategy specialization, best brands, price point, etc.
• What are the capabilities of data warehouse (CRM, ERP, marketing and purchasing tools)?
Technology • What do management dashboards and KPI information on real-time basis look like?
• Technology stack: scalable, mobile ready, proprietary and state-of-the art?
• Source of traffic (direct, search engine (organic/paid), referrals, email, mobile share, CPC, NPS)
Customers/marketing • Profound understanding of cohort analysis (# orders, # customers, churn, AOV, repurchase), monthly CLTV and CAC
• What is the focus of your marketing efforts online and offline?
• Current sourcing strategy, i.e. how can the supply chain challenge current business models (e.g. bike, chips and gaming console industries)
• How scalable and up-to-date is your logistics center?
Sourcing/logistics • Current outbound/inbound/storage capacity utilization levels vs. maximum capacity
• What is your strategy regarding inventory levels, SKU, units in stock and what are the associated risks?
• Elaborate on unit economics of detailed bottom-up growth plan
• How do you expect to generate further operating leverage?
Financials • NWC development – show DIO, DSO and DPO development and explain monthly peaks
• COVID-19 impact: Buyers are questioning short-term growth in light of very strong LTM growth. Furthermore, are higher margins sustainable?
223 Get in touch
GET IN TOUCH
Mario Schlup, Director
Alexander Grünwald, Co-Head Europe Mario
Guido Schlup,
Viggiani,
ThomasDirector
Analyst
Egli, Managing Director
• Member of GCA’s Board and • Co-Head of Digital, Media &
Co-Head of Europe Internet Europe
• Prior to joining GCA, Alex managed • Prior to joining GCA, Thomas worked
Marchfifteen, Austria's leading for Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt and
media and technology fund London on cross-border M&A
• Graduated from WU Vienna and transactions
Boston University • Graduated from the University
of St. Gallen
alexander.gruenwald@gcaaltium.com thomas.egli@gcaaltium.com
+41 43 499 43 47 +41 43 499 43 41
+41 79 620 00 93 +41 79 418 71 13
Mario Schlup,
TobiasDirector
Schultheiss, Managing Director Mario
Guido Schlup,
Viggiani,
Director
Analyst
Sam Fuller, Managing Director
• Co-Head of Digital, Media & • Head of Consumer Europe
Internet Europe • Sam has extensive corporate finance
• Prior to joining GCA, Tobias was a experience having led a significant
Director at DC Advisory in Frankfurt number or both public and private
and London transactions in the leisure, retail
• Graduated from EBS and San and e-commerce sector
Francisco State University • Graduated from Oxford University
tobias.schultheiss@gcaaltium.com sam.fuller@gcaaltium.com
+49 69 204 34 64 16 +44 207 484 40 37
+49 160 534 62 78 +44 781 807 84 00
24WHY GCA ALTIUM IS THE IDEAL PARTNER FOR E -COMMERCE M&A
#1 M&A ADVISOR
STRONG SELL-SIDE BRAND
FOR CONSUMER &
SIGNALING A QUALITY ASSET
E-COMMERCE TRANSACTIONS
OUTSTANDING VALUE
REALIZATION TRACK GLOBAL TEAM WITH
RECORD ALSO IN VERY EXPANSIVE NETWORKS
CHALLENGING TIMES
DIRECT GLOBAL PERSONAL ABILITY TO “EMOTIONALLY”
ACCESS TO KEY DECISION POSITION OUR CLIENTS WITH
MAKERS POTENTIAL BUYERS
25CONTACT US
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264 Appendix: Valuation overview
VALUATION OVERVIEW – E-COMMERCE, MARKETPLACES AND CLASSIFIEDS
I II III
E-commerce Marketplaces Classifieds
EV/Sales ‘21 1.6x EV/Sales ‘21 4.4x EV/Sales ‘21 9.3x
Sales CAGR ‘20-’22 20.1% Sales CAGR ‘20-’22 29.0% Sales CAGR ‘20-’22 14.7%
EV/EBITDA ’21 23.5x EV/EBITDA ’21 24.3x EV/EBITDA ’21 24.8x
EBITDA margin ‘21 7.4% EBITDA margin ‘21 21.6% EBITDA margin ‘21 35.2%
Multiples have remained broadly constant despite COVID-19 and will benefit in the mid-/long-term
Note: Median figures
Source: Capital IQ as of 13-Aug-2021 28I VALUATION OVERVIEW
E-commerce
MV EV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EBITDA margin Sales
Company Country (EURm) (EURm) 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 CAGR
Amazon US 1’413’633 1’441’896 4.4x 3.6x 3.0x 35.3x 23.5x 19.0x 12.5% 15.2% 15.9% 20.7%
JD.com CN 91’579 83’226 0.9x 0.7x 0.5x 38.0x 38.0x 22.8x 2.2% 1.8% 2.4% 25.2%
Wayfair US 27’460 28’600 2.4x 2.3x 2.0x 65.1x 45.0x 34.9x 3.7% 5.2% 5.6% 10.5%
Zalando DE 23’591 22’816 2.9x 2.2x 1.9x 46.5x 31.9x 27.3x 6.1% 6.9% 6.8% 23.7%
Ocado Group GB 15’473 15’361 5.6x 4.8x 4.2x n/m n/m 80.0x (1.4%) 3.1% 5.2% 16.2%
ZOZO JP 9’393 9’339 8.5x 7.5x 6.9x 26.8x 23.9x 21.4x 31.7% 31.5% 32.3% 11.0%
Vipshop CN 9’474 7’467 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 8.4x 6.5x 5.4x 6.7% 7.1% 7.3% 18.9%
Rakuten JP 15’155 7’330 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 45.3x 95.0x 6.1x 1.4% 0.6% 8.3% 13.5%
ASOS GB 4’658 4’937 1.2x 1.1x 0.9x 18.8x 12.8x 10.8x 6.5% 8.3% 8.2% 17.2%
boohoo GB 4’035 3’733 2.0x 1.6x 1.2x 23.0x 15.9x 12.5x 8.5% 10.3% 9.5% 28.3%
Zur Rose Group CH 3’244 3’453 2.5x 2.1x 1.5x n/m n/m n/m (7.3%) (3.6%) (0.9%) 30.8%
zooplus DE 2’807 2’745 1.5x 1.3x 1.1x 63.2x 41.4x 34.6x 2.4% 3.2% 3.3% 15.4%
Shop Apotheke Europe NL 2’416 2’346 2.4x 2.1x 1.6x n/m n/m 64.4x 1.3% 0.3% 2.5% 23.2%
MYT DE 2’117 2’076 4.0x 3.2x 2.6x 52.2x 38.6x 34.1x 7.7% 8.3% 7.7% 24.0%
BHG Group SE 1’624 1’863 2.1x 1.6x 1.4x 26.3x 16.8x 15.3x 8.1% 9.4% 9.3% 22.0%
1-800-FLOWERS.COM US 1’735 1’750 1.1x 0.9x 0.9x 11.9x 9.3x 8.7x 9.3% 10.0% 9.9% 13.5%
AO World GB 1’216 1’247 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 27.6x 19.2x 17.1x 2.6% 3.2% 2.9% 19.5%
Boozt SE 1’130 1’041 2.4x 1.9x 1.6x 36.6x 24.3x 17.4x 6.7% 7.8% 9.1% 23.8%
Westwing DE 892 794 1.8x 1.5x 1.2x 24.6x 16.4x 15.2x 7.5% 9.1% 8.2% 21.6%
Kogan.com AU 753 712 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 16.7x 18.0x 15.1x 9.9% 7.9% 8.7% 11.5%
home24 DE 544 479 1.0x 0.7x 0.6x n/m 59.4x 34.8x (0.4%) 1.3% 1.8% 24.9%
Lyko Group SE 412 434 2.7x 2.2x 1.7x 87.9x 24.4x 18.2x 3.0% 8.8% 9.5% 23.8%
PetMed Express US 487 393 1.5x 1.6x 1.5x 11.6x 12.5x 12.0x 12.8% 12.5% 12.5% (0.4%)
Verkkokauppa.com FI 375 377 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x 18.4x 13.0x 11.8x 3.7% 4.9% 5.0% 7.3%
Average 68’092 68’517 2.3x 1.9x 1.7x 34.2x 27.9x 23.4x 6.1% 7.2% 8.0% 18.6%
Median 2’611 2’545 1.9x 1.6x 1.4x 27.2x 23.5x 17.4x 6.3% 7.4% 7.9% 20.1%
Note: EV/EBITDA below 0.0x or above 100.0x considered not meaningful (“n/m”); About You, Bike24 and Victorian Plumbing not included
as not yet covered by analysts due to only recent IPO; Source: Capital IQ as of 13-Aug-2021 29II VALUATION OVERVIEW
Marketplaces
MV EV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EBITDA margin Sales
Company Country (EURm) (EURm) 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 CAGR
Alibaba CN 433’303 411’340 4.9x 3.6x 3.0x 20.4x 16.3x 13.9x 23.9% 22.0% 21.5% 27.7%
eBay US 40’774 34’105 3.9x 3.9x 3.7x 12.1x 10.2x 9.6x 32.4% 38.0% 38.3% 3.5%
Delivery Hero DE 28’877 29’103 11.8x 5.0x 3.4x n/m n/m n/m (32.7%) (11.1%) (4.0%) 86.3%
Copart US 28’367 28’044 14.5x 11.7x 10.8x 32.7x 24.3x 22.8x 44.3% 48.1% 47.3% 15.9%
Etsy US 20’603 20’466 14.0x 10.6x 8.8x 53.5x 38.2x 31.0x 26.2% 27.7% 28.3% 26.2%
Just Eat Takeaway.com NL 15’430 15’469 7.6x 3.0x 2.2x n/m n/m n/m 0.9% (5.3%) (0.1%) 84.9%
Farfetch GB 13’264 13’048 9.2x 6.9x 5.4x n/m n/m 99.4x (26.4%) 1.1% 5.4% 30.4%
Americanas BR 6’317 7’074 4.3x 3.3x 2.4x n/m 43.1x 27.2x 3.2% 7.6% 8.8% 34.6%
Cars.com US 767 1’191 2.6x 2.3x 2.1x 10.0x 7.5x 7.1x 25.6% 30.2% 30.4% 9.4%
Infibeam Avenues IN 653 617 8.7x 5.9x 4.1x 44.7x 27.7x 18.6x 19.4% 21.3% 21.9% 45.9%
Average 58’836 56’045 8.1x 5.6x 4.6x 28.9x 23.9x 28.7x 11.7% 18.0% 19.8% 36.5%
Median 18’016 17’967 8.1x 4.4x 3.5x 26.6x 24.3x 20.7x 21.7% 21.6% 21.7% 29.0%
Note: EV/EBITDA below 0.0x or above 100.0x considered not meaningful (“n/m”)
Source: Capital IQ as of 13-Aug-2021 30III VALUATION OVERVIEW
Classifieds
MV EV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EBITDA margin Sales
Company Country (EURm) (EURm) 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 CAGR
Zillow Group US 20’882 19’376 6.8x 3.5x 2.3x n/m 38.9x 34.7x 3.8% 8.9% 6.7% 71.5%
REA Group AU 12’366 12’614 23.0x 20.0x 17.5x 47.1x 35.1x 30.7x 48.8% 57.0% 56.9% 14.7%
Info Edge IN 7’965 7’632 n/m n/m 39.6x n/m n/m n/m 24.9% 21.9% 37.3% 21.0%
SEEK AU 6’612 7’565 7.9x 9.3x 10.3x 42.4x 26.5x 24.9x 18.6% 35.2% 41.4% (12.7%)
Auto Trader Group GB 7’188 7’176 21.7x 17.0x 14.7x 34.1x 24.0x 20.2x 63.6% 70.6% 72.5% 21.7%
Rightmove GB 7’017 6’951 28.8x 19.6x 18.3x 43.2x 26.2x 24.2x 66.6% 75.0% 75.7% 25.5%
Scout24 DE 5’858 5’457 14.5x 14.3x 12.8x 30.0x 24.8x 21.7x 48.5% 57.6% 59.0% 6.5%
carsales.com AU 3’981 4’246 17.8x 14.8x 13.6x 36.0x 26.2x 23.3x 49.5% 56.6% 58.1% 14.7%
51job CN 4’469 3’166 6.6x 5.9x 5.4x 25.4x 18.1x 16.1x 25.8% 32.5% 33.9% 9.9%
Autohome CN 4’199 2’118 1.9x 1.9x 1.7x 4.9x 5.3x 4.5x 38.3% 35.2% 38.3% 4.3%
Fang CN 69 500 2.7x n/a n/a 10.2x n/a n/a 26.8% n/a n/a n/a
SaraminHR KR 417 368 5.2x 4.4x 3.9x 18.5x 13.7x 11.7x 28.3% 32.2% 33.1% 16.2%
DHI Group US 154 168 1.4x 1.7x 1.6x 9.3x 8.0x 7.0x 15.5% 21.7% 22.6% (4.5%)
Average 6’244 5’949 11.5x 10.2x 11.8x 27.4x 22.4x 19.9x 35.3% 42.0% 44.6% 15.7%
Median 5’858 5’457 7.4x 9.3x 11.6x 30.0x 24.8x 21.7x 28.3% 35.2% 39.9% 14.7%
Note: EV/EBITDA below 0.0x or above 100.0x considered not meaningful (“n/m”)
Source: Capital IQ as of 13-Aug-2021 31You can also read
