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India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?
An Economist Intelligence Unit report

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India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

Contents
Executive Summary                                                                                                 2
    About the research                                                                                            4

Introduction5

1) The big picture                                                                                                7
    A young, growing economy                                                                                      7
    India as an export market                                                                                     8
    Japanese FDI in India                                                                                         9
    M&A                                                                                                          11

2) Synergies and opportunities                                                                                   12
    Infrastructure                                                                                               12
    Energy and arms                                                                                              14
    “Make in India”                                                                                              15
    Hitachi: India as global hub                                                                                 16
    Retail and consumer goods                                                                                    17

3) Challenges ahead                                                                                              18
    Red tape and taxes                                                                                           18
    Logistics                                                                                                    19
    HR and cultural issues                                                                                       20
    Kokuyo: Lessons in M&A, from India to the world                                                              22

4) Conclusion                                                                                                    23

1                                                      © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

                                                       Executive
                                                       Summary

    As the second-most-populous country in the                            remain for those companies eager to seize them.
    world and one of the largest and fastest-growing                      Its main findings include:
    economies in Asia, India has always offered much
    to internationally minded Japanese firms. The                         l India’s demographic profile and economic
    success of companies like Suzuki and Honda,                             transition represent great opportunities
    which formed partnerships with Indian firms so                          India’s economy will grow at an average
    successful their products came to dominate their                        of 7.1% per year to 2020, according to EIU
    respective markets, is evidence of this potential.                      forecasts. It has a youthful population and
    Yet these successes are notable because they                            a rapidly expanding middle class. Moreover,
    have been comparatively rare; it is fair to say                         between 2015 and 2030 its urban population
    that the potential of the overall bilateral trade                       will rise by 39% to nearly 600m people. As well
    and investment relationship has been largely—                           as infrastructure needs, such growth implies
    so far—unrealised. India ranks only 20th as a                           a massive increase in demand for consumer
    destination for Japanese exports, for instance,                         goods and financial services that Japanese
    and accounts for just 1.5% of Japan’s foreign                           firms should be well positioned to provide,
    direct investment. Fewer Japanese businesses                            given their experience in emerging markets.
    operate in India than in Thailand.
                                                                          l India needs infrastructure; Japan can
    The difficulty of doing business in India—dealing                       finance and build it
    with its complex bureaucracy and regulations,                           Japan’s abundance of capital and India’s
    numerous jurisdictions, and inadequate                                  need for it are a good match. Japan has
    infrastructure, among other irritations—has                             long experience in channeling long-term,
    put off many foreign investors. However, the                            low-cost funds for infrastructure projects in
    crushing victory in the 2014 general election of                        emerging markets. Japanese firms are already
    Narendra Modi, the reformist and pro-business                           playing a major role in several such projects in
    former chief minister of Gujarat state, was seen                        India, including the US$90bn Delhi-Mumbai
    as heralding a new dawn. Mr Modi, it was hoped,                         Industrial Corridor and a similar project
    would usher in investor-friendly reforms and                            linking Chennai and Bangalore. Japan is also
    a new focus on infrastructure that would ease                           in the running to supply India with high-
    the path of foreign investment and fast-track                           speed shinkansen passenger trains: a joint
    economic growth. Japanese companies should                              feasibility study is underway. Japanese firms
    be well-placed to benefit. This paper examines                          such as Hitachi, Toshiba, Mitsubishi and JGC
    where the opportunities are and what challenges                         Corporation are also working on “smart cities”
                                                                            within the planned transport corridors.
2                        © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

l Energy is also a core focus, but nuclear                    also sees India as “a major production hub for
  cooperation remains sensitive                               overseas markets,” and has made acquisitions
  Improving India’s patchy energy infrastructure              to bolster its manufacturing capacity with this
  is a key goal for Mr Modi—with the ambition                 in mind.
  of achieving 24-hour electricity for all
  by 2019. Reaching this goal will require               l The challenges of investing in India remain
  estimated investment of US$250bn in the                  considerable
  sector. In Mr Modi’s first full budget the               So far, the economic transformation under
  government announced plans to build five                 Mr Modi is more wishful thinking than
  “ultra mega” power plants of 4,000 megawatts             reality. The World Bank ranks India 134th
  to ease supply problems. India has been                  out of 189 economies in terms of ease of
  courting Japan with regard to nuclear power              doing business, taking into account factors
  generation, but diplomatic obstacles to this             such as dealing with permits, paying taxes,
  remain considerable, as India is a declared              enforcing contracts and getting electricity.
  nuclear-weapons state.                                   Poor infrastructure, arbitrary tax treatment,
                                                           lax enforcement of intellectual property laws
l Japanese firms are taking up the invitation              and complex bureaucracy (especially regarding
  to “make in India”                                       land acquisition) are particular problems.
  It is telling that while India is Sony’s fourth-         Mr Modi’s first full budget, announced in
  largest market globally, it has not made any             February 2015, includes measures to bolster
  products in the country since it shut its last           infrastructure spending, simplify taxation
  facility there in 2004. Recognising the crucial          and—pending parliamentary approval—ease
  role manufacturing plays in economic growth,             land-acquisition rules, which may help.
  Mr Modi wants to raise its share of GDP from
  15% to 25-30%, with plans to slash red tape,           l Success in M&A requires getting over
  simplify taxation and offer incentives to firms          “culture shock”
  to “make in India”. These are so far at an early         Japanese firms’ record of buying assets in
  stage, though the prospect of lower costs                India is not stellar: the ill-fated purchase by
  should be enticing: average wages in India               pharmaceutical company Daiichi Sankyo in
  are lower than many comparable economies.                2008 of Ranbaxy, an Indian maker of generic
  Many Japanese firms—including Sony—are                   drugs, is one oft-mentioned failure, as is NTT’s
  reconsidering; Toto, Nidec and Daikin are just           loss-making joint venture with Tata Group. But
  some examples of companies that have either              M&A is picking up: according to the Zephyr
  opened factories in India in recent months or            M&A database Japanese companies made
  have made plans to do so.                                some 46 acquisitions (including minority
                                                           stakes and joint ventures) in India in 2014, up
l Many see the potential of India as hub to                from just 23 in the previous year. Interviewees
  reach markets to the west                                for this paper recommend close control of
  India is appealing as a potential production             acquired assets and getting over “cultural
  and distribution hub for markets in the Middle           gaps” through regular communication.
  East, Europe and Africa. To take two examples            Cultural differences are exacerbated by the
  from interviews for this paper, Hitachi plans to         relative dearth of personal contact between
  make India a “global hub for productisation”,            Japanese and Indian people: only around
  from which to develop products for export to             7,000 Japanese work in India (as of 2012),
  the Middle East and Africa—as well as for sale           compared to 150,000-plus living in China.
  locally. Kokuyo, a stationery manufacturer,

3                                                © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

    About the research
    This Economist Intelligence Unit report,                             EIU and do not necessarily reflect those of the
    sponsored by Standard Chartered Bank, is                             sponsor. The report was written by David Line
    based on in-depth research, data analysis and                        and edited by Laurel West. Amie Nagano and
    interviews with a number of senior executives                        Takato Mori contributed additional reporting,
    in India and Japan. Our thanks are due to all                        and translated the report into Japanese. The
    interviewees for their time and insights. The                        English text should be regarded as definitive.
    views expressed in the report are those of the

4                       © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

                                    Introduction

The warm relationship between India’s prime             areas in which Japanese firms excel. Japanese
minister, Narendra Modi, and his Japanese               consumer companies, meanwhile, are aware
counterpart, Shinzo Abe, is the most obvious            that with a shrinking and ageing domestic
sign that ties between the two countries                population their future lies abroad: India
are stronger than perhaps ever before. The              has a young demographic profile and vast
two leaders began their respective tenures              population, a fast-growing economy, and ample
with much in common: solid mandates after               urbanisation potential.
crushing electoral victories, a determination
to drive economic growth after years of                 A bilateral free-trade agreement, signed in
underperformance, and a robustly nationalist            2011, seemed set to herald a new phase in cross-
political philosophy. Strategically the two             border trade and investment. Yet economic ties
countries—separated geographically by China—            have so far failed to achieve their potential. To
have much to gain through co-operation. That            be sure, many Japanese brands are well known
Mr Modi made an official visit to Japan only a few      in India (e.g. Honda and Suzuki, to give just two
months after taking office was symbolic of his          household names in the automotive sector), and
desire to deepen and strengthen the bilateral           around 1,000 Japanese firms have operations
relationship.                                           of one kind or another there, according to the
                                                        Japan External Trade Organisation (JETRO). But
The two leaders’ personal ties have a long              to put that in perspective, over 1,400 Japanese
history, cemented during Mr Modi’s tenure as            firms are registered with the Japanese Chamber
chief minister of Gujarat state. The “Gujarat           of Commerce (JCC) in Thailand while over 2,400
model” of development he championed—                    have signed up at the JCC’s Shanghai office.3
                                                                                                                 1
                                                                                                                  BJP, “Modi’s Gujarat
                                                                                                                 Model”, campaign pamphlet
focused on power-sector reforms, infrastructure         All told, India accounts for only around 1% of
investment and industrial liberalisation, among         Japan’s foreign direct investment and 1.2% of            2
                                                                                                                  PTI, “40 more Japanese
other measures1—benefited from investment               its exports. It is also worth noting that previous       firms to invest in Gujarat:
by Japanese firms, of which more than 60 now            summit meetings between national leaders of              Japan’s envoy”, August
operate there.2 It could therefore be seen as           the two countries, such as one between Mr Abe            20th 2014
a natural step for Japan to play a key role in          and Mr Modi’s predecessor Manmohan Singh                 3
                                                                                                                  JETRO, “Challenges for
helping Mr Modi apply his policies on a national        in May 2013, led to grand pronouncements                 India-Japan Investment
scale. India is in desperate need of investment         about Japanese investment without heralding              Promotion and Proposals
in infrastructure, energy and manufacturing,            any breakthroughs. Indeed, the difficulties              to Both Governments”,
                                                                                                                 September 2013

5                                               © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

                             for Japanese companies of operating in India                          quarter. (Full-year GDP results released since
                             remain considerable.                                                  suggest India’s economy is now outpacing even
                                                                                                   China’s, growing 7.5% in 2014 as a whole.4)
                             Nonetheless there is a feeling that given his                         Mr Abe, meanwhile, promised to double both
                             pro-business credentials and the success of                           Japan’s investment and the number of Japanese
                             the “Gujarat model”, Mr Modi’s accession to                           companies operating in India within five years,
                             the premiership marked a new start in the                             targeting ¥3.5trn (US$33.6bn) of private and
                             relationship. In an address to business leaders                       public financing. Japanese companies should be
                             in Tokyo last September he proclaimed that                            in prime position to benefit if the two leaders’
                             the “environment of disappointment” that                              hopes are fulfilled. This paper examines where
                             had surrounded India’s economy was over,                              the opportunities are and what challenges
                             citing the fastest pace of GDP growth in two                          remain for Japanese companies eager to seize
                             years of 5.7% year on year in the April-June                          them.

4
 This follows India’s
rebasing of official GDP
data, making 2011-12 its
base year for comparison
rather than 2004-05.
This arguably inflated the
official growth rate.

6                                                 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

               1                         The big picture

A young, growing economy                                                              goods in India and repatriate profits at such
                                                                                      rates—it is far smaller (Figure 1). Nevertheless
India’s economic potential has never been in                                          its economy is expected to grow rapidly, at an
doubt. It is the second most populous country                                         average of 7.1% per year to 2020 according
in the world and in purchasing-power-parity                                           to EIU forecasts, and despite having very
terms (in nominal US dollars) its economy is                                          low per-capita income India has a rapidly
larger than that of Japan and third globally                                          expanding middle class (Figure 2). Moreover its
behind the US and China. However, at market                                           demographics are favourable, especially when
exchange rates—of greater relevance to                                                compared to Japan (Figure 3).
would-be exporters, considering they must sell

    Figure 1: Large but poor
    2013 GDP, select G20 economies
    (US$ bn)
                                                                        PPP        Market e/r
    16,000

    12,000

    8,000

    4,000

    0
                                                    il

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                                                                                                                                                ra
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                                                                                                                                  r
                         rm

                                                                                    n
                                                         Ru
                  Ja

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                                                                                                                    do
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                                                                                               So

                                                                                                                                       So
                                                                                                                                 Sa

    Source: EIU

7                                                                             © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

                                          Figure 2: Getting richer
                                          US$, constant 2005 prices
                                                  Median household income (LHS)                                                             % of households earning > US$3,000 p.a. (RHS)
                                          4,000                                                                                                                                      60

                                                                                                                                                                                     50
                                          3,500
                                                                                                                                                                                     40
                                          3,000
                                                                                                                                                                                     30
                                          2,500
                                                                                                                                                                                     20
                                          2,000                                                                                                                                      10

                                          1,500                                                                                                                                       0
                                                          2010         2011            2012             2013              2014     2015        2016          2017          2018
                                          Source: EIU

                                          Figure 3: Youthful profile
                                          Population by age group
                                          (thousands; both sexes)

                                                           2030       2010

                                            0-14
                                                                                                                                                               351,239
                                                                                                                                                                363,764
                                           15-24

                                           25-49

                                           50-64

                                             65+

                                                    0                100,000               200,000              300,000                 400,000              500,000              600,000
                                          Source: UN World Population Prospects 2012. Projections are based on medium fertility profile

    Figure 4: Not heavily featured                                                                                          India as an export market
    Share of Japan’s goods exports, 2013
                                                                                                                            Despite its potential, India is a surprisingly
    (%)
                                                                                                                            small market for Japanese exporters: it ranks
    India
                                                                                                             ROW            only 20th overall (Figure 4). The main reason is
    Canada
    Panama                                                                                                      US          India’s limited purchasing power. Much smaller
    Philippines
                                                            13.65                                                           economies (such as Mexico or the Philippines)
    Mexico                                                                     18.81
                                                   1
                                                 1.2.20                                                                     rank higher as markets for Japanese exports,
    Vietnam                                     1.3 2
                                               1.3 5
                                              1.365
                                                                                                                            partly because of their higher per-capita
    Russia                                   1.48
                                             1.53
                                                                                                            China           incomes: US$10,630 in Mexico and US$2,790 in
    UK                                       1.55

    Netherlands                              1.94
                                                                                           18.1
                                                                                                                            the Philippines, compared to India’s US$1,505.
                                             2.13
    Malaysia                                  2.37
    Australia                                   2.3
                                                    8                                                                       In terms of composition, India’s US$10.5bn
                                                        65
    Indonesia                                       2.                                                                      worth of imports from Japan—which account
                                                            93
    Germany                                              2.
                                                             5.03                 7.9                       Korea           for 2% of its total imports—are idiosyncratic:
    Singapore                                                       5.23 5.82
    Thailand                                                                                            Taiwan              globally Japan’s biggest export line is cars and
                                                                                                     Hong Kong              other vehicles (which account for 21% of its
    Source: ITC calculations based on UN COMTRADE statistics

8                                                                        © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

total goods exports), but these struggle to get           Figure 5: What India wants
into the protected Indian market: vehicles make
                                                          India’s imports from Japan, 2013
up only 5% of India’s purchases from Japan, and
                                                          (US$bn and %)
many of the largest Japanese auto firms have                                                                                                Everything else
production facilities in the country already.             Mineral fuels, distillates                                                                  1.35
                                                          0.22                                                                                   Machinery
There is a much better match between India’s                                                                                                          2.87
demand for capital equipment as the country                                                                        13%
                                                          Rubber and articles thereof                    2%
                                                                                                                                 27%
industrialises and Japan’s ability to supply              0.3                                         3%
it: comfortably the largest single element                Plastics and articles thereof             4%
in India’s imports from Japan is machinery                0.37
                                                                                                    4%
(US$2.9bn worth, 27% of total imports from                Organic chemicals
                                                          0.4                                       4%
Japan; Figure 5).
                                                          Articles of iron or steel
                                                                                                         5%                            15%
                                                          0.42
Japan and India signed a bilateral free-trade                                                                 5%
                                                          Vehicles                                                                            Iron and steel
agreement in 2011, the Comprehensive                      0.55                                                      7%                                   1.54
                                                                                                                           11%
Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA),                                                                                                 Electrical, electronic
                                                          Optical, photo, technical, medical,                                              equipment, 1.16
which covers liberalisation of trade in goods             etc apparatus, 0.57
                                                                                                                                                Ships, boats
(90% of tariffs on India’s side and 97% on                                                                                                              0.75
Japan’s are to be phased out within 10 years)             Source: ITC calculations based on UN COMTRADE statistics

and more limited provisions covering trade in
services, intellectual property, cross-border             Figure 6: A yen for India
investment and visa requirements. Within a                Japanese FDI stock by country, 2013
year of its coming into force in August 2011 the          (US$bn and %)
number of Japanese firms operating in India               Vietnam, 8.4                                                                     Everywhere else
                                                                                                                                                    109.7
rose 14%, while the country’s exports to India            Philippines, 10.4
                                                          Malaysia, 13.3                                                                                US
rose from US$9bn in 2010 to US$11bn the                                                                                                               285.8
year after. The trend has not been maintained,
                                                          Taiwan, 13.3                                             11%
                                                                                                                                 28%
                                                                                                             1
                                                                                                           1 %
                                                          Canada, 14.5                                    1 %
                                                                                                         1%%
however: by 2012 not many more Japanese                   India, 15.1
                                                                                                       1
                                                                                                      1%%
                                                                                                     2%
firms had set up in India and goods exports fell          Germany, 16.9                             2%
to US$10.6bn in 2012 and US$8.6bn in 2013.                Hong Kong, 18.3                          2%
                                                                                                   2%
Ironically, India’s free-trade agreements with            Indonesia, 18.4                          2%
                                                          France, 20                                 3%
other nations have been equally as beneficial to
                                                          Korea, 25.5                                 3%
                                                                                                                                       9%      Netherlands
Japanese companies: Sony, which used to have              Thailand, 35                                    3%
                                                                                                                                                      94.2
a manufacturing facility in India that it shut                                                                                                       China
                                                          Brazil, 35.3                                        5%                 9%                     93
in phases in 2004, now imports its products to            Singapore, 36                                              6%                           Australia
                                                                                                                          6%
India from overseas factories using FTAs India                                                                                                        61.2
                                                          UK, 53.8
                                                                                                                                                 Cayman Is
has signed with other nations.5                                                                                                                       59.6

Japanese FDI in India                                                                                                            5
                                                                                                                                  Economic Times, “Sony
                                                       only 1.5% of the total) or its investment in other                        mulls setting up a
The CEPA was also expected to herald rapid             Asian destinations (it is not much more than its                          manufacturing plant in
growth in Japan’s foreign direct investment                                                                                      India enthused by policies
                                                       FDI in the much smaller economies of Taiwan
(FDI) into India, but this has not transpired.                                                                                   of new government”, August
                                                       or Malaysia; Figure 6). To be sure, Japan’s                               26th 2014
Japanese direct investment in India, at around         investment in India has grown considerably
US$15bn, is still relatively modest whether            in recent years, from the US$100m-200m                                    6
                                                                                                                                  Nikkei, “Daiichi Sankyo to
compared with Japan’s total FDI (India makes up        range per year in the early 2000s to a high of                            end 6-year Ranbaxy debacle
                                                                                                                                 with sale”, April 8th 2014

9                                              © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

    Figure 7: Investing abroad                                                                                         US$5.6bn in 2008 (most of which came from the
                                                                                                                       purchase of Ranbaxy, an Indian pharmaceuticals
    Annual FDI flows from Japan to India
    (US$m)                                                                                                             manufacturer, by Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo, for
    6,000                     Japan data (JETRO)                 India data (via UNCTAD)                               ¥500bn6). But gains have not been sustained:
                                                                                                                       currently annual FDI from Japan is running
    5,000
                                                                                                                       around US$2bn a year. Data from the Reserve
    4,000                                                                                                              Bank of India, meanwhile, suggests a doubling
    3,000                                                                                                              of FDI flows from Japan in the year after the
                                                                                                                       CEPA’s introduction, although it also shows that
    2,000
                                                                                                                       it subsequently fell back (Figure 7).7 Red tape
    1,000                                                                                                              and a poor record on the part of Japanese firms
    0                                                                                                                  in managing acquisitions in India (explained in
        2004   2005    2006      2007        2008         2009      2010      2011        2012        2013             more detail in part 3) are partly to blame.

                                  Figure 8: Good prospects
                                  (% respondents)
                                                 Promising countries over next 10 years                                        Promising countries over next 3 years
                                  Rank                       Country                                             %     Rank              Country                                        %
                                  1                          India                                            53.1     1                 Indonesia                                44.9
                                  2                          China                                            38.6     2                 India                                    43.6
                                  3                          Indonesia                                        37.5     3                 Thailand                                 38.5
                                  4                          Brazil                                           31.7     4                 China                                    37.5
                                  5                          Thailand                                         27.5     5                 Vietnam                                  30.3
                                  6                          Vietnam                                          26.7     6                 Brazil                                   23.4
                                  7                          Myanmar                                          20.8     7                 Mexico                                   17.2
                                  8                          Russia                                           18.1     8                 Myanmar                                  13.1
                                  9                          Mexico                                           13.1     9                 Russia                                   12.3
                                  10                         US                                               13.1     10                US                                       11.1
                                  Source: JBIC

                                      Figure 9: Buying spree?
                                      Japanese acquisitions in India
                                      (number of deals)
7
  FDI flow data from                  50
India, Japan and in third
party databases do not
                                                                                                                                                                       46
                                      40
necessarily match. Figures
in this paragraph are those           30
from the Japan External
                                                                                                                     28           27
Trade Organization (JETRO).           20                                                                                                             23
For comparable data from                            20                   20
                                                                                               18
the Reserve Bank of India
                                      10
(RBI), collated by UNCTAD,
see Figure 4. Data from
                                      0
the RBI includes FDI only
                                                    2008                 2009                  2010                  2011         2012               2013              2014
through official routes
                                      NB: Deals completed and assumed completed in given year. Includes minority stakes, increases in stockholdings, joint ventures and acquisitions.
and refers to fiscal years
                                      Source: Zephyr, Bureau van Dijk
beginning in April.

10                                                                  © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

Nevertheless, surveys of Japanese firms show                                 entering specific sectors—is heating up, such
that India remains a favoured investment                                     investment is starting from a comparatively
destination—particularly in the longer term.                                 low base and has suffered some high-profile
A 2013 survey of Japanese manufacturers                                      failures (discussed below). The number of
conducted by the Japan Bank for International                                completed deals in recent years has been
Cooperation (JBIC), a publicly owned bank that                               modest: according to the Zephyr M&A database
supports Japanese businesses going abroad,                                   Japanese companies made some 46 acquisitions
showed India ranked first for promising overseas                             (including minority stakes and joint ventures)
business destinations over the next 10 years and                             in India in 2014, up from just 23 in the previous
second over the next three years (Figure 8).8                                year (Figure 9). These included Hitachi Systems’
                                                                             acquisition of a 76% stake in Micro Clinic India,
M&A                                                                          an IT services company, and the purchase by
                                                                             Meidensha, a capital goods manufacturer, of
Although Japanese companies’ interest in
                                                                             23% of Prime Electric, an Indian transformer
acquiring assets in India—or entering into
                                                                             manufacturer (Figure 10), as well as various
joint ventures, which is a prerequisite for
                                                                             other deals.

Figure 10: Who’s in?
Select Japanese deals in India, 2014
Buyer                                   Target                               Deal type                                Industry
Shiroki Corporation                     Shiroki Technico India               Joint venture                            Automotive parts
FCC                                     Rico Auto                            Increased stake in JV to                 Automotive parts
                                                                             100%
Nippon Life Insurance                   Reliance Capital Asset               Increased stake to 49%                   Financial services
                                        Management
Hitachi Zosen                           ISGEC Hitachi Zosen                  Joint venture                            Heavy engineering
Outsourcing Inc                         Alp Consulting                       Acquisition                              Human resources
Tsubakimoto Chain                       Mahindra Conveyor Systems            Acquisition                              Industrial machinery
Hitachi Systems                         Micro Clinic India                   Acquisition                              IT services
CAC                                     Accel Frontline                      Acquisition                              IT services
Kintetsu World Express                  Gati                                 Joint venture                            Logistics
Rohto Pharmaceutical                    Deep Care Health                     Joint venture                            Pharma-ceuticals
Toshiba                                 Vijai Electricals – electricity      Acquisition                              Power
                                        T&D business
Toshiba Mitsubishi-Electric             AEG Power Solutions:                 Acquisition                              Power
Industrial Systems                      Bangalore facility
Meidensha                               Prime Electric                       Joint venture                            Power
en-Japan                                New Era India Consultancy            Acquisition                              Recruitment consulting
Softbank                                Inmobi Technologies                  Capital increase                         Telecommunications
Sources: Zephyr/Bureau van Dijk, press, companies

                                                                                                                                                      8
                                                                                                                                                       JBIC, “Survey Report
                                                                                                                                                      on Overseas Business
                                                                                                                                                      Operations by Japanese
                                                                                                                                                      Manufacturing Companies”,
                                                                                                                                                      March 2014

11                                                                   © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

                                     2                    Synergies and opportunities

                             Infrastructure                                                       metro projects, water supplies, sanitation,
                                                                                                  power and other infrastructure sectors.9 JBIC’s
                             Japan has much to offer India—particularly to                        2014 annual report showed 832 loans and equity
                             help it complete desperately needed large-scale                      participation commitments to India up to March
                             infrastructure projects. “Too much debate and                        of that year, worth a combined ¥1.2trn.10
                             corruption has led to a lack of infrastructure
                             like roads, highways, energy and industrial                          “If you look at the amount [of funds] and the
                             zones; we are lagging behind,” says Sanjeev                          long-term appetite, Japan is number-one in the
                             Sinha, president of Sun and Sands Advisors,                          world [for infrastructure financing],” says Mr
                             a consultancy that specialises in Japan-                             Sinha, noting that JBIC offers 40-year loans at
                             India business links. “This is exactly where                         low interest rates.
                             Japan can contribute: it has huge technology
                             [capabilities] and a long-term investment                            This presents a massive opportunity for
                             appetite.”                                                           Japanese construction, transport and
                                                                                                  machinery companies—the involvement of
                             Japan’s abundance of capital and India’s                             which is often a prerequisite for securing the
                             need for it are clearly a good match. Japan                          type of funding described above. JICA was
                             has long experience in channeling long-                              involved in the funding of the Delhi Metro,
                             term, low-cost funds for infrastructure                              India’s biggest subway system, and will play a
                             projects in emerging markets in the form of                          major role in several other major infrastructure
                             official development assistance (ODA) loans,                         projects that have been prioritised by the
                             distributed through policy institutions such as                      Modi government. These include the US$90bn
9
 JICA, ODA Loan Project      the Japan International Cooperation Agency                           Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC), which
Data, available at http://
                             (JICA) and JBIC. JICA figures show a cumulative                      includes a raft of proposed developments along
www2.jica.go.jp/en/yen_
                             commitment of ODA loans to India of ¥4.2trn                          a dedicated 1,483km freight railway (Figure
loan/index.php/module/
search                       (around US$35.7bn at exchange rates as of                            11), and a similar project linking Chennai and
                             mid-January 2015), through more than 240                             Bangalore.
 JBIC, Annual Report 2014,
10
                             agreements for various projects such as roads,
p94

12                                               © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

 Figure 11: Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor

                                      JAMMU
                                    AND KASHMIR

                                       HIM ACHAL
                                        PRADESH
                                   PUNJAB
                                                                                                           ARUNACHAL PRADESH
                                     HARYANA                                           SIKKIM
                                             Delhi
                        RAJASTHAN
                                                      UTTAR                                    BHUTAN
                                                     PRADESH                                               ASSAM       NAGALAND
                    Ikbalgarh
                                                                          BIHAR              MEGHALAYA                MANIPUR
                 GUJARAT
                                                                                     WEST
                              Ahmedabad MADHYA PRADESH
                                                                                    BENGAL                         MIZORAM
                                                                                                      TRIPURA
                                MAHARASHTRA                           ORISSA

                  Mumbai
                                            ANDHRA
                                            PRADESH
                        GOA

                                KARNATAKA

                                     TAMIL NADU
                                  KERA
                                    LA

Such projects are not necessarily new, but their             energy, water, transport, and healthcare—and
implementation has proved more difficult than                the IT network infrastructure that cuts across
perhaps the Japanese investors envisaged                     these—there is huge potential.” At the end of
when the initial deals were struck. The DMIC                 2012 Hitachi committed to investing ¥70bn
agreement was signed in 2007 but work got                    (US$587m) in India, of which 60-70% had been
bogged down in disagreements between rival                   spent by the end of 2014.
political parties running different states along
the route. The crushing victory of Mr Modi’s                 Two aspects of infrastructure in particular
party in the 2014 general election has removed               have attracted a lot of Japanese attention:
many of these impediments.                                   transport links and smart cities. In 2013 Sojitz,
                                                             a Japanese conglomerate, signed a ¥110bn
“India is about to build its infrastructure from             contract—the largest ever signed under an ODA
the bare minimum,” says Ichiro Iino, who was                 loan—to build a 626-km section of the Western                           11
                                                                                                                                       Sojitz press release,
until recently the managing director of Hitachi              Dedicated Freight Corridor in partnership with                          “Sojitz Receives the
India and is now the company’s chief executive               India’s Larsen & Toubro.11 Separately, much has                         Contract of Civil & Track
                                                                                                                                     Works for Western Dedicated
for the Asia-Pacific region. “It’s certainly a               also been made about the possibility of Japan
                                                                                                                                     Freight Corridor Project in
land of opportunity. In all fields including                 supplying India with high-speed shinkansen                              India”, June 10th 2013

13                                                   © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

                               passenger trains, particularly since Mr Modi has                              India illustrates the size of the opportunity:
                               allowed complete foreign ownership of such                                    according to UN projections, between 2015
                               projects. There has been little concrete progress                             and 2030 India’s urban population will rise by
                               on these to date, although a joint feasibility                                39% to nearly 600m people (Figure 12). As well
                               study on a high-speed railway between Mumbai                                  as infrastructure needs, such growth implies
                               and Ahmedabad has been launched and should                                    a massive increase in demand for consumer
                               be complete by July 2015.12                                                   goods and financial services that Japanese
                                                                                                             firms should be well positioned to provide.
                               Roads are another promising area: in 2013 East                                Nevertheless, competition from firms in South
                               Nippon Expressways acquired a small stake in                                  Korea, Singapore, Germany, the UK and the US
                               an Indian special purpose company set up by                                   is likely to be steep as more urban development
                               the country’s largest operator of public-private                              plans are rolled out. China, too, aims to increase
                               partnership (PPP) roads to widen highways                                     its presence in the country: while visiting Delhi
                               in Maharashtra—a trial that will be carefully                                 shortly after Mr Modi returned from Japan,
                               watched to see if it is successful and replicable.13                          China’s president, Xi Jinping, announced plans to
                                                                                                             invest US$20bn in India over the next five years.15
                               Meanwhile Hitachi, Toshiba, Mitsubishi and JGC
                               Corporation have formed a consortium to work
                               on four “smart cities” within the DMIC route
                                                                                                             Energy and arms
                               (of several that are being planned). These are                                India’s patchy energy infrastructure is a
                               intended to be self-sustainable habitats with                                 key focus for Mr Modi—with the ambition of
                               low pollution, efficient energy supplies and                                  achieving 24-hour electricity for all by 2019.
                               state-of-the-art public transportation. Mr Modi,                              This will require a massive increase in capacity:
                               whose election campaign promised 100 new                                      in November 2014 Piyush Goyal, the minister for
                               city developments, took the opportunity while                                 power, coal and renewable energy, said India
                               visiting Kyoto in September 2014 to depict it as                              needed investment of US$250bn in the sector to
                               a model for the planned revamping of Varanasi                                 realise this goal. Meanwhile rapid urbanisation,
                               into a “smart heritage city”,14 suggesting                                    and a commitment to electrify rural regions, will
                               Japanese design and technology will be                                        require more investment in transmission and
12
   Business Standard,                                                                                        distribution (T&D).
                               uppermost in planners’ minds.
“Japan going whole hog
with investment in Indian
                               The scale and speed of urbanisation across                                    Investment in power generation has been
infrastructure”, January
27th 2014                       Figure 12: Run to the cities
13
  Economic Times, “IL&FS,       India’s urban population
                                      Millions (LHS)                                                                                                                 % (RHS)
East Nippon Expressway
                                900                                                                                                                                       55
to jointly work for PPP
projects”, Jun 27th 2013        800                                                                                                                                      50

                                700                                                                                                                                      45
14
  IBNLive, “PM Narendra
                                600                                                                                                                                      40
Modi’s plan to turn Varanasi
into a ‘smart city’: Will       500                                                                                                                                      35
the Kyoto model work?”,
                                400                                                                                                                                      30
September 1st 2014
                                300                                                                                                                                      25
15
  Nikkei, “China to invest      200                                                                                                                                      20
$20B in India over next 5                    2015           2020            2025              2030              2035             2040             2045        2050
years”, September 19th          Source: UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Urbanisation Prospects: The 2014 Revision
2014

14                                                          © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

hamstrung over the years by numerous issues              military co-operation agreements that elevated
such as acceptable risk levels, and most                 the relationship between the two countries to
recently by erratic fuel supplies (in particular         a “Special Strategic and Global Partnership”—
owing to controversies over the allocation               part of which will involve the sale of 15 planes
and exploitation of coal resources, and the              worth more than US$1.5bn in total.
inefficiencies of the state-owned supplier, Coal
India) but Japanese companies have invested in           “Make in India”
T&D—including two high-profile deals in 2014 by
                                                         In theory India should be an attractive
Toshiba and its partners (Figure 10). Meanwhile,
                                                         opportunity for Japanese companies to
in the first full budget of Mr Modi’s tenure,
                                                         establish lower-cost manufacturing bases from
unveiled on February 28th 2015, the government
                                                         which to ship goods to the rest of the world.
announced plans to build five “ultra mega” power
                                                         This has been the foundation of Japanese
plants of 4,000 megawatts to ease problems with
                                                         direct investment in South-east Asia in recent
electricity supply.
                                                         decades—and a trend Mr Modi hopes can be
It is in the field of nuclear power generation           replicated in his country. During a speech on
that India is most assiduously courting Japan.           India’s Independence Day (15th August) he
Hitachi, which in collaboration with GE has a            invited global companies: “Come, make in
large nuclear-power generation equipment                 India”, and he reiterated that call while in Tokyo
business, would be one major supplier if                 the following month, promising that “now a red
diplomatic obstacles can be overcome. These              carpet, not red tape, awaits you”.16 Currently
remain considerable: during Mr Modi’s visit              manufacturing makes up around 15% of GDP; Mr
last year a highly anticipated civil nuclear             Modi wants to raise this to 25-30%.
agreement between the two countries did not
                                                         Certainly the prospect of lower costs should
materialise, although both governments did
                                                         be enticing: average wages in India are lower
pledge to accelerate negotiations. The issue
                                                         than many comparable economies—and are
of nuclear co-operation with India remains a                                                                                     16
                                                                                                                                   NDTV, “Red Carpet, Not
                                                         projected to stay that way for the short term at
particularly sensitive one in Japan, as India is a                                                                               Red Tape, Awaits You in
                                                         least, according to EIU projections (Figure 13).
declared nuclear-weapons state. The Japanese                                                                                     India, Says PM Narendra
                                                         Productivity growth and a continued plentiful                           Modi to Japan”, September
government wants explicit guarantees from
                                                         supply of new labour, given the country’s                               2nd 2014
India, which is not a signatory of the nuclear
non-proliferation treaty, to limit atomic tests
and allow closer inspection of its nuclear                  Figure 13: Pricier, but still cheap
facilities.                                                 Average manufacturing labour costs per hour
                                                            (US$, EIU estimates and forecasts)
An equally controversial opportunity—                       5
                                                                                                            China         Thailand           India
especially given Japan’s fractious diplomatic
relations with China—is for Japan to export                 4
military equipment to India, something that
has only become possible since Mr Abe lifted                3
a long-term ban on such exports in 2013.
Discussions on the possible purchase of                     2
amphibious aircraft from Japan, specifically
the ShinMaywa US-2i, started long before that.              1
During Mr Modi’s Japan trip last year he co-                      2009       2010        2011     2012   2013      2014   2015        2016      2017   2018
signed defence equipment, technology, and                  Source: EIU

15                                               © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

                                 youthful demographics, also have the potential                         there.17 If it decides to do so Sony would
                                 to limit future growth in real wages. However,                         follow Panasonic, Daikin, Sharp and Hitachi in
                                 Japanese firms have so far been reluctant to                           increasing investment in production capacity in
                                 take advantage of these factors (for reasons                           the country.
                                 examined in more detail below). As mentioned
                                 above, to take one example, even though India                          Manufacturers in other sectors are also stepping
                                 is Sony’s fourth-largest market globally, it no                        up their capacity in India to take advantage
                                 longer makes any of its products in the country.                       of expected burgeoning demand. Toto, a
                                                                                                        manufacturer of sanitary ware, teamed up
                                 But prompted by Mr Modi’s initiatives, the                             with trading house Mitsui to begin full-scale
                                 prospect of manufacturing in India is gaining                          production at a state-of-the-art factory in
                                 currency among Japanese electronics firms—                             Gujarat, which opened in August 2014,18 while
                                 which have been struggling to match the                                Nidec, a maker of electric motors, announced
                                 aggressive pricing of their Korean competitors                         last June that it would build its first plant in
                                 in the Indian market. A report by India’s                              India, for ¥10bn (US$93m), in the Neemrana
                                 Economic Times newspaper quoted Kenichiro                              Industrial Area in Rajasthan—where Daikin
                                 Hibi, managing director of Sony’s Indian                               has a factory.19 Nidec’s president, Shigenobu
                                 subsidiary, saying that initiatives allowing                           Nagamori, later said the company would build
                                 foreign manufacturers to sell their products                           around five factories in India.20 Yokohama
                                 directly online—as well as the prospect of stable                      Rubber, meanwhile, completed a new plant in
                                 economic growth and exchange rates—may well                            the country in February this year, while JFE Steel
                                 prompt the firm to look again at the possibility                       has a joint venture with local steel major JSW in
                                 of making flat-panel TVs and smartphones

                                  Hitachi: India as global hub
                                  Although Narendra Modi has set his sights on                          past two to three years we’ve found that India
                                  increasing India’s manufacturing capacity, it                         has strength in designing and producing
17
     See footnote 5               would be a mistake to see it only as a centre for                     electrical equipment such as motors and
                                  low-cost production, reckons Ichiro Iino, chief                       switchgears, the core items supporting the
18
  Mitusi & Co press release,      executive for the Asia-Pacific region at Hitachi                      manufacturing industry,” he says. Such
“Mitsui & Co., TOTO joint         Group. The company is making India a “global                          technical expertise, married with experience of
venture opens sanitary ware       hub for productisation”, that is to develop                           international standards, makes the partnership
factory in India”, August         products there for export to the Middle East                          of Japanese and Indian skillsets particularly
20th 2014                         and Africa—as well as for sale locally.                               beneficial.
19
  Globe Newswire,                 “Once you cross the western boundary of                               “India has great talent with a flexible and
“Nidec to Set Up Its First        Myanmar, it’s wise to assume that you are no                          innovative mindset,” Mr Iino explains. “The
Manufacturing Foothold in         longer able to sell the same goods in the same                        Indian people are also more used to working
India”, June 4th 2014             way as you do in Japan and in the rest of South-                      with global standards than the Japanese,
                                  east Asia,” Mr Iino says. “We can leverage the                        given the big presence of Western firms in this
20
  Nikkei, “Nidec to build five    trust and respect that the Japanese brand and                         country. Japanese [companies] tend to be
plants in India: President”,      quality receive. But once you are in India, you’d                     strong in working in an organised manner and
June 18th 2014                    want to look forward to doing things that you                         producing goods with consistent quality. So I
                                  couldn’t do in Japan.”                                                think Japanese and Indian talents complement
21
  Nikkei, “Japanese                                                                                     each other well, presenting immense
investment in India               Mr Iino stresses the appeal of the technical                          potential.”
growing, but for how              skills available to investors in India. “In the
long?”, July 2nd 2014

16                                                     © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

the latter’s first cold-rolling mill, in Karnataka.21      Spencer of the UK and Benetton of Italy) to take
                                                           advantage of the recent liberalisation, but Mr
Many Japanese companies—including Hitachi                  Modi’s warm welcome to foreign investment
and Kokuyo, profiled in boxes below—are                    could be the needed incentive for them to dip
excited about the prospect of using India as a             their toes in the water. In the highest-profile
manufacturing hub from which to ship products              move thus far, Ryohin Keikaku, owner of the
elsewhere. One of the most successful Japanese             Muji brand of household goods, will be the
companies in India, Suzuki, is committing to               first major Japanese retailer to open in India
exports by building a plant in Gujarat expressly           when it finalises a joint venture agreement
to service the European and African markets.               with a local partner later this year. It plans
In January 2015, at an investment summit in                to open its first store in Delhi or Mumbai in
Gujarat, the chairman of Suzuki, Osamu Suzuki,             2015 or 2016 depending on how swiftly the
told the Nikkei newspaper: “For Japanese                   Indian government approves its investment
companies, India is a gateway to the Middle                application.24
East, Africa and Europe.”22 But there will be
many hurdles—not least logistics and trade                 Mr Modi also had a meeting with Tadashi Yanai,
facilitation—before this potential can be                  CEO of Fast Retailing (which owns the Uniqlo
realised.                                                  brand), in June 2014 and apparently entreated
                                                           him to expand into India.25 Mr Yanai reportedly
Retail and consumer goods                                  told Mr Modi the company would source
                                                           garments from India.26 Previous reports in early
As mentioned above, the potential for supplying
                                                           2013 that the company was about to start a
goods and services to India’s rapidly expanding
                                                           joint venture with India’s Arvind, to establish
urban, middle-class population is considerable.
                                                           a US$1bn business in the country, came to
However, retail remains one of the most
                                                           nothing (Arvind later announced a joint venture
protected industries in India. The liberalisation
                                                           with Uniqlo’s US competitor, Gap, to open 40             22
                                                                                                                      Nikkei, “India on cusp of
of the sector, while politically sensitive and
                                                           stores in India).27                                      breaking out, says Suzuki
slow-moving, is proceeding gradually. Since                                                                         chief”, January 14th 2015
2012 restrictions have been loosened to allow              Food is another promising area given projected
single-brand stores to establish wholly-owned              urbanisation and rising incomes. Japan’s Nikkei
                                                                                                                    23
                                                                                                                      Wall Street Journal,
units, and more opening up is expected during              newspaper recently reported that Toyo Suisan
                                                                                                                    “Arvind to Bring Gap Stores
Mr Modi’s tenure.                                                                                                   to India”, August 22nd 2014
                                                           and Ajinomoto have formed an Indian joint
                                                           venture to produce instant noodles in Tamil              24
                                                                                                                       Nikkei, “Muji stores to
With India’s apparel market, to take one retail
                                                           Nadu; Nissin has opened its third instant-noodle         open in India as country
sector, valued at around US$40bn per year                                                                           eases restrictions”,
                                                           plant in India, in Odisha; and Mitsui and Yanmar
and expected to grow 50% by 2020,23 the                                                                             September 1st 2014
                                                           have formed a JV with India’s Mugrappa Group
opportunity is considerable. Japanese firms
                                                           to make rice-farming machines and combine                25
                                                                                                                         See footnote 21
have been slower than their counterparts
                                                           harvesters.28
overseas (such as Inditex of Spain, Marks &                                                                         26
                                                                                                                      Reuters, “Japan’s Uniqlo
                                                                                                                    may source garments from
                                                                                                                    India”, June 25th 2014

                                                                                                                    27
                                                                                                                      Times of India, “Japanese
                                                                                                                    giant Uniqlo set to partner
                                                                                                                    Arvind in India JV”, January
                                                                                                                    16th 2013

                                                                                                                    28
                                                                                                                         See footnote 21

17                                                 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

                                     3                      Challenges ahead

                             India is not an easy place to do business: the                         companies going to India to do business,”
                             World Bank, in its annual ranking of such issues,                      says Sandeep Tewari, country head and CEO
                             rates India 134th out of 189 economies, taking                         in Japan for the State Bank of India. JETRO
                             into account factors such as dealing with permits,                     cites complaints by Japanese companies about
                             paying taxes, enforcing contracts and getting                          unequal treatment and uncertainty in how
                             electricity.29 But India is far from a homogenous                      companies will be treated by the tax authorities
                             entity. The World Bank also ranks 17 Indian cities                     in different jurisdictions. The prime minister
                             by the same criteria. Ludhiana, in the state of                        is aiming to tackle such issues, says Mr Tewari,
                             Punjab in northern India, ranks first while Kolkata                    “but it will not happen overnight.” Mr Modi’s
                             in West Bengal is 17th. To take one indicator, in                      government made some initial steps in its first
                             Ludhiana businesses need 17 procedures to deal                         budget, cutting corporate taxes over the next
                             with construction permits, taking an average                           four years to 25% (from around 30% now) and
                             of 143 days (against an OECD average of 13                             implementing a countrywide goods and services
                             procedures in 147 days) while in Kolkata they                          tax by April 2016.
                             must grapple with 27, taking 258 days.
                                                                                                    Land acquisition has long been recognised as
                             While it is beyond the scope of this paper to                          a hindrance to large-scale investment, even
29
  World Bank Group, “Doing   iterate the precise advantages and disadvantages                       for local businesses, let alone foreign ones.
Business: Measuring          of each location in the country, there are a                           The establishment of special economic zones
Business Regulations”,       number of common factors that companies                                (SEZs) in which permits and land rights could
available at http://www.     struggle with when doing business there.                               be more easily acquired was meant to tackle
doingbusiness.org/rankings
                                                                                                    this problem. But it is not a new solution: the
30
  Ministry of Commerce &     Red tape and taxes                                                     first such zone was set up in 1965 and there
Industry, Special Economic                                                                          are more than 190 in operation around the
                             Taxes and land acquisition are particular
Zones in India website,                                                                             country (as of May 2014).30 This has not led
                             problems. “The complex tax system prevalent in
“Fact Sheet on Special                                                                              to a significant liberalisation of the business
Economic Zones”, January     India [and] the acquisition of land to establish
                                                                                                    environment in the same way that China’s usage
21st 2015                    a factory are major hurdles for Japanese
18                                                 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

of similar zones has, but there are hopes Mr             India’s regulations (or at least the enforcement
Modi’s push for the broader use of such entities         of them) are insufficient, particularly in terms
may yield faster benefits. Steps taken in the            of protecting intellectual property. JETRO’s
2015 budget, including an executive order to             paper cites numerous instances where Japanese
revise a restrictive 2013 law governing land             companies have complained that counterfeit
purchases (eliminating a consent clause and the          and imitation brands operate with impunity
requirement for social impact assessments to be          and recommends various areas in which
conducted should the land be used for certain            improvements are needed. The paper estimates
purposes) may help, although this requires the           damages from piracy in 2012 were worth as much
consent of parliament.                                   as 80% of revenues in the IT software industry
                                                         and 30-40% in the auto parts sector.33
Mr Modi’s government has also emphasised
the importance of cutting back on the endless            Logistics
regulations that stymie foreign investors.
Hiroyuki Ishige, chairman of JETRO, identified           While there are plenty of opportunities for
bureaucratic red tape as the number-one                  Japanese construction companies to build roads,
problem in a recent interview with the Wall              bridges, ports, power stations and other vital
Street Journal, saying Japanese companies                infrastructure in India, the poor current state of
had complained to him that “when they build a            such facilities makes life difficult for businesses
factory in India, they need a separate warehouse         in most other industries. JETRO cites complaints
to store all the documents for regulatory                from Japanese investors about limited power
filings”.31 As part of his simplification drive Mr       and water supplies (even in industrial parks),
Modi has scrapped India’s planning commission,           congestion and poor roads that limit truck
which he has accused of excessive centralisation,        transport to 300km per day, and innumerable
obstructing other state governments from                 delays in getting approvals for upgrading
following the kind of plan he pioneered in               infrastructure.
Gujarat. Changes to liberalise foreign investment
                                                         Logistics and distribution have been a particular
in various sectors are expected, though these
                                                         challenge. Mr Sinha of Sun and Sands Advisors
are progressing less swiftly than many had
                                                         cites the example of Lawson convenience stores,
hoped when Mr Modi took office.
                                                         which sought his advice when investigating
Given India’s political constitution it might not        whether to open in India. The political sensitivity
be realistic to expect dramatic simplification of        of allowing foreign investment in retail (given
regulatory jurisdictions, but Japanese investors         it is dominated by mom-and-pop stores) meant
would be well served by a central repository of          it was always going to be a speculative exercise.
information that provides necessary information          But Lawson’s former president, Takeshi Niinami
(for instance about SEZs), claims a 2013 JETRO           (who stepped down in May 2014) decided
white paper. The paper makes unflattering                that the poor infrastructure and distribution
comparisons with the situation in Thailand—              network—as well as human resources issues—
pointing out that while Thailand’s Board of              made it a non-starter.                                   31
                                                                                                                    Wall Street Journal Japan
Investment has two desks in Japan (in Tokyo                                                                       RealTime blog, “Japan,
                                                         The situation is changing, though, Mr Sinha              India Look to Reenergize
dating from 1979 and in Osaka from 1995) the
                                                         says. “Distribution and logistics for retail has         Economic Ties”, June 3rd
Indian government has none.32                                                                                     2014
                                                         improved from e-commerce. Flipkart [an online
The problem is not always of excessive                   retailer] and other companies have created               32
                                                                                                                       See footnote 3
regulation; there are important areas in which           the impetus to [improve] the logistics industry
                                                         at the retail level—it’s getting better day by           33
                                                                                                                       Ibid.

19                                               © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

 Figure 14: Reported problems                                                                                                 HR and cultural issues
 Business issues of Japanese companies in India
 (% respondents)                                                                                                              India’s abundant, relatively cheap human
 India                                                                                                                 %      capital makes it an ostensibly attractive place
 1 Wage increase                                                                                                    71.1      to invest. However, it is hardly alone in having
 2 Difficulty in local procurement of raw materials and parts                                                       66.4      a large labour pool: its South Asian neighbours
 2 Power shortage or blackouts                                                                                      66.4      Bangladesh and Myanmar can offer the same.
 4 Competitors’ market shares are growing (cost-wise competition)                                                   63.5      And while there might be an abundance of
 5 Complicated customs clearance procedures                                                                         55.6      unskilled labour in India, the price of this
 Source: Survey on Business Conditions of Japanese-Affiliated Firms in Asia and Oceania (2012, JETRO)                         is rising steadily: in a 2012 JETRO survey of
                                                                                                                              Japanese companies in India wage increases
                                                                                                                              were the most commonly cited business
                                          day. Five years ago it was quite backwards,                                         issue—ahead of even logistics or infrastructure
                                          but maybe now Lawson or Uniqlo can consider                                         problems (Figure 14).
                                          India as a better opportunity.” Still, it will take
                                          time to raise standards. “Logistics will remain a                                    Tellingly, according to Mr Sinha, the second
                                          challenge for Japanese companies because they                                       reason Lawson’s president gave for deciding
                                          are used to working in an extremely organised                                       against an Indian foray was the low quality of
                                          environment.”                                                                       available labour. “One of India’s weaknesses
                                                                                                                              is education; it’s good in tech education like
                                          There are signs that Japanese companies in                                          physics, sciences, engineering and so on, but
                                          some sectors are learning to adapt to India’s                                       there isn’t enough vocati onal education.” This
                                          operating environment. For example, there have                                      means a lack of available middle managers who
                                          been frustrations with delays in getting grand                                      might reliably oversee the local operations
                                          projects such as the DMIC up and running. In                                        of Japanese businesses. Meanwhile, cultural
                                          part, Mr Sinha contends, this is because Japanese                                   differences are exacerbated by the relative
                                          investors “wanted a Master Plan approach for the                                    dearth of personal contact between Japanese
                                          whole region and to work under that plan”. Given                                    and Indian people: only around 7,000 Japanese
                                          the multiple jurisdictions involved this was always                                 work in India (as of 2012), compared to 150,000-
                                          going to be unrealistic. For a similar Bangalore-                                   plus living in China.35
                                          to-Chennai industrial corridor now being
                                          planned, Japanese companies are being much                                          A lack of mutual understanding has proved
                                          more flexible. “They have not taken a ‘big plan’                                    to be a problem when Japanese companies
                                          approach, which won’t work in India,” says Mr                                       buy assets in the country. Indeed, the story
                                          Sinha; rather “they are attracting entrepreneurs                                    of Japanese M&A in India is more famous for
                                          and using a PPP [public-private partnership]                                        its high-profile failures than its successes.
                                          model rather than government planning.”                                             These include the purchase by pharmaceutical
                                                                                                                              company Daiichi Sankyo in 2008 of Ranbaxy,
34
  Wall Street Journal,                    The government is certainly aware of the need                                       an Indian maker of generic drugs. Shortly after
“India’s Budget Focuses on                to invest in infrastructure to make India a more
Infrastructure”, February
                                                                                                                              the purchase, quality-control problems led to
                                          attractive investment destination. In Mr Modi’s                                     Ranbaxy’s products being banned by the US’s
28th 2015
                                          first full budget the government said it would                                      Food and Drug Administration. Daiichi Sankyo
35
  Statistics Japan dataset,               double investment in transport, as part of                                          was unable to fix problems at Ranbaxy, in part,
“Japanese Nationals Living                Rs700bn (US$11bn) in extra spending allocated                                       some analysts speculated, because it never
Abroad, 1990-2012”,                       for roads, railways and other infrastructure.34
available at http://www.
stat.go.jp/data/nenkan/
zuhyou/y0215000.xls

20                                                                           © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

had sufficient control of the company—with                 Such examples, while famous, are arguably no
only one Japanese executive among 10 senior                more representative than the success enjoyed by
operating officers.36 It ended up offloading its           Suzuki—which through its 30-year partnership
stake in Ranbaxy to an Indian company, Sun                 with Maruti became India’s largest producer
Pharmaceuticals, in early 2014, through a stock            of vehicles—or Honda, which parlayed a joint
swap that leaves Daiichi owning 9% of Sun.                 venture with Hero (begun in 1984 and dissolved
Another high-profile failure was NTT’s joint               in 2011) into a market leading position on its
venture with Tata Group, signed with much                  own. And as the box below on Kokuyo (which
fanfare in 2009, which the Japanese company                bought India’s Camlin in 2011) illustrates, open
sold last year having never made a profit.                 communication is the key to overcoming cultural
                                                           surprises.

                                                                                                                    36
                                                                                                                      Nikkei, “Culture clashes
                                                                                                                    threaten quality standards
                                                                                                                    for Japanese companies in
                                                                                                                    India”, April 21st 2014

21                                                 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
India: A new dawn for Japanese companies?

     Kokuyo: Lessons in M&A, from India to the world
     Kokuyo, a Japanese manufacturer of                                   The company continues to face challenges
     stationery, saw great potential in the Indian                        in managing its Indian business. “Cultural
     market when it bought Camlin, a stationery                           gaps still exist in some areas, not least in
     company based in Mumbai, in 2011. But                                the area of compliance,” Mr Sumitani says.
     managing the investment has been far from                            “Our challenge is to optimise our existing
     straightforward.                                                     compliance standards in accordance with local
                                                                          legal frameworks and social conventions. We
     “When we started our business in India about                         also organise annual gatherings to discuss
     four years ago, we were really surprised by the                      these matters with all staff in India and deepen
     cultural gaps,” says Tsutomu Sumitani, director                      understanding of our compliance practices.”
     and managing officer for Kokuyo Solutions &
     Technologies. Kokuyo recognised that Camlin                          Despite these issues, Kokuyo remains excited
     had established itself in India as a leading                         about the Indian market. “Its demographics
     stationery and art material manufacturer, with                       are qualitatively different from China, given
     strong brand equity and a robust distribution                        its growing, young population and vibrant
     network. “But the company needed to improve                          middle class,” Mr Sumitani explains. The
     its product development and design capability                        company’s confidence is reflected in the new
     as well as cross-departmental communication,”                        manufacturing facility it is building—its largest
     Mr Sumitani says.                                                    outside Japan—in Maharashtra, into which
                                                                          its subsidiary operations will be consolidated
     In fixing these issues, it wouldn’t work simply                      when it starts fully-fledged production in 2016.
     to impose the Japanese model that Kokuyo
     had perfected at home. “One of the keys [to                          Kokuyo’s enthusiasm for acquiring Indian
     M&A success] is effective localisation of the                        assets is likewise undiminished. “Our next step
     business model and product development,” he                          would be to develop India as a major production
     says. “It [may have been] less time-consuming                        hub for overseas markets, including Asia, the
     to introduce our existing business model, or                         Middle East, Africa and Latin America,” Mr
     products that we have nurtured in Japan. But                         Sumitani says. To this end in 2013 it acquired
     we cannot make our business grow in India                            Riddhi Enterprises, an Indian firm that did
     unless our local staff are confident in our                          not have a domestic brand or distribution
     business model and products.”                                        network but which specialised in the export
                                                                          of stationery products to overseas markets,
     “To overcome differences, it is important                            mainly Central and South America. “We are
     to communicate and establish mutual                                  planning to expand our presence into new
     understanding,” he adds. “It is also important                       markets in those regions by leveraging Riddhi’s
     to share management know-how and systems                             production and distribution infrastructure,” Mr
     freely with the acquired company and ensure                          Sumitani says.
     speedy decision-making through seamless
     communication at management level.”

22                       © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2015
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