INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International

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INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
Research &
Forecast Report

                   Accelerating success.

INDUSTRIAL
Second Half 2019
INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
Accelerating success.

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             joanne.henderson@colliers.com
             colliers.com.au/colliersedge
INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
CONTENTS

     Snapshot | Industrial                     4

     National Overview                         5

     Sydney                                    6

     Melbourne                                 9

     Brisbane                                 12

     Adelaide                                 14

     Perth                                    16

     Newcastle                                18

     New Zealand                             20

     Our Expertise                           22

                             Accelerating success.
INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

INDUSTRIAL
SNAPSHOT
*H2 2019 figures as at Q3 2019

                                                                                                     Brisbane*
                                                                                                  Net Face                          Capital            Incentive        Land
                                                                                                                     Yield
                                                                                                    Rent                            Value                Level          Value
                                                                                                   $/sqm                %           $/sqm                 %             $/sqm

                                                                                H2 2019 (Q3)         $111           5.94%           $1,874              16.2%           $321

                                                                                H1 2019 (Q1)        $110            6.07%               $1,816          16.2%           $310

                                                                                                     Sydney
                                                                                                  Net Face                          Capital            Incentive        Land
                                                                                                                     Yield
                                                                                                    Rent                            Value                Level          Value
                                                                                                   $/sqm                %           $/sqm                 %             $/sqm

                                                                                H2 2019 (Q3)        $155            4.75%           $3,258               9.1%           $1,261

                                                                                H1 2019 (Q1)        $151            5.04%           $3,000              8.9%            $1,214

                     Adelaide                                                                        Melbourne
                  Net Face                     Capital      Incentive   Land                      Net Face                          Capital            Incentive        Land
                                  Yield                                                                              Yield
                    Rent                       Value          Level     Value                       Rent                            Value                Level          Value
                   $/sqm           %           $/sqm           %        $/sqm                      $/sqm                %           $/sqm                 %             $/sqm

H2 2019 (Q3)        $102          7.56%        $1,385        11.3%      $205    H2 2019 (Q3)         $111           5.73%               $1,975          14.3%           $393

H1 2019 (Q1)        $100          7.75%        $1,319        11.3%      $200    H1 2019 (Q1)         $111           6.03%           $1,876              14.4%           $393

                     Perth                                                      * Includes the following precincts: ATC, North and Outer North, South, South West and Yatala

                  Net Face                     Capital      Incentive   Land
                                  Yield
                    Rent                       Value          Level     Value
                   $/sqm           %           $/sqm           %        $/sqm

H2 2019 (Q3)         $79         7.00%          $1,121       17.5%      $438

H1 2019 (Q1)         $78          7.10%        $1,099        17.5%      $438

Average Land Value Ranges                                                       Share of Supply to be Delivered 2019 to 2023

        $1,800
                                                                                                                             5%
        $1,600                                                                                                    10%
        $1,400   $1,261
        $1,200
                                                                                                             9%
        $1,000
                                                                                                                                                 46%
$/sqm

         $800
         $600                                                           $441
                                 $393
         $400                                 $321
                                                             $205
         $200
                                                                                                                  29%
           $0
                 Sydney      Melbourne*   Brisbane    Adelaide          Perth
                                      Low High Average
                                                                                            NSW               VIC                 QLD              SA              WA
Source: Colliers Edge
Note: *This figure for Melbourne excludes the City Fringe                       Source: Cordell Connect/Colliers International

4
INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

NATIONAL
OVERVIEW
By Karina Salas                                                           There is no doubt that the current transport infrastructure investment
Manager | Research                                                        is set to transform the outlook of the industrial market not only for
karina.salas@colliers.com
                                                                          operators, but also for developers and investors currently revisiting
Transport infrastructure investment transforming                          their investment strategy to recognise the changing market dynamics
the industrial market                                                     created by the infrastructure investment.

Transport infrastructure plays a critical role shaping the dynamics       Industrial land values driven by rapid population
of how a country uses its labour force and capital. As the Australian     growth
population continues to grow and land availability for different          Rapid population growth and high population density in the East
uses becomes restricted, a strategic transport network is required        Coast underpin the increase in land values throughout the largest
to facilitate socio-economic development and to provide efficient         capital cities, as land availability for industrial development becomes
and flexible access to different markets. The Australian transport        limited and its use is restricted to other purposes, particularly in
infrastructure network has entered an era of transformation and           proximity to the CBD.
renewal, with an estimated investment in transport infrastructure
                                                                          Melbourne has reported an increase in industrial land values in the
projects under construction and committed of $133 billion and with
                                                                          range of 25 to 105 per cent for the past five years, with the average
over 65 per cent of this investment scheduled for completion in the
                                                                          land values sitting in the range of $305/sqm to $1,400/sqm.
next three to five years.
                                                                          Similarly, Sydney has seen growth in average industrial land values
Several infrastructure projects currently under construction are
                                                                          in the range of 85 to 215 per cent over the past five years to a range
expected to have a significant impact on the way the Australian
                                                                          of $725/sqm and $2,750/sqm. In the case of Brisbane, a solid 5-year
industrial market operates, reshaping the demand drivers for
                                                                          increase in land values in the range of 25 to 50 per cent, to an
industrial land. The $16.8 billion WestConnex project in Sydney will
                                                                          average range of $300/sqm to $415/sqm has been witnessed.
reduce travel time between Parramatta and the Airport by about 40
minutes, cutting down transport costs for industrial operators within     As more than half of the Australian population remains heavily
the Inner, Central and Outer West precincts and potentially driving       concentrated in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, industrial land
industrial expansion in the Western Sydney precincts offering more        values in these capital cities will continue to trend upwards, with
availability of industrial land.                                          the transition from bricks and mortar retail to e-commerce retail
                                                                          becoming another key driver of industrial activity in these regions.
The $6.7 billion West Gate Tunnel project in Melbourne will create an
alternative and direct route connecting the West industrial precinct      We anticipate that the rail transport infrastructure investment pipeline
with the Port, benefiting up to 9,000 trucks using the West Gate          will improve operational efficiencies for industrial operators located
bridge and reducing travel time by up to 50 per cent. The completion      in outer and even regional precincts, which eventually may ease the
of this project opens the opportunity to use High Productivity Freight    pace of the growth in land values. However, a National Population
Vehicle road access. This is expected to allow movement of greater        Strategy is critical to promote decentralisation of Australia’s
volumes of freight with fewer movements encouraging industrial            population and support a more efficient use of land and resources
development within more affordable and distant precincts to the Port      across the country.
and beyond the City Fringe precinct.

Colliers International anticipates that the $10 billion Inland Rail
project will challenge the status quo of the industrial market on the     Transport Infrastructure Projects
Australia East Coast, expanding and connecting the supply chains
                                                                                          $35                                                               45
across Melbourne and Brisbane to international and other domestic                                                                                           40
                                                                                          $30
                                                                                                                                                            35
                                                                                                                                                                 Number of Projects

markets. This initiative, scheduled for completion by 2028, will                          $25
                                                                         AUD$ (billion)

                                                                                                                                                            30
strategically lift the national freight capacity creating distribution                    $20                                                               25
and transport efficiencies reflected on rail costs savings of about                       $15                                                               20
$10 per tonne between Melbourne and Brisbane. The completion of                                                                                             15
                                                                                          $10
                                                                                                                                                            10
this project is expected to support industrial development beyond                          $5                                                               5
the traditional capital-cities industrial precincts and into regional                      $-                                                               -
                                                                                                NSW VIC       QLD Various WA     SA    TAS    NT    ACT
locations in proximity to the rail line in Victoria, NSW and Qld. The
                                                                                                Air & Space       Rail      Road       Number of Projects
most likely regions to benefit from the Inland Rail are expected to be
Toowoomba, Willowbank, Bromelton and Acacia Ridge in Queensland,
                                                                          Source: Deloitte Access Economics Investment Monitor, June 2019 -
Tottenham in Victoria and Parkes in New South Wales.                      Under Construction and Committed

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INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

 SYDNEY
 OVERVIEW
 Market Indicators - September 2019                                                                                                                                                                                 Transport, Postal & Warehousing and Wholesale Retail sectors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    continue to drive tenant demand, underpinning growth in the
                                   AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)                                                                                                                                                    average prime net face rents of circa 8 per cent over the past YoY to
                                   Prime                Secondary                                                                                                                                                   September 2019.

                                        L                                            H                                                     L                                            H
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The South industrial sub-market has recorded the most substantial
                                 $139                                         $171                                                  $123                                         $141
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    average prime rental increase among all precincts in Sydney over the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    past 12 months. Prime net face rents have risen by 21.3 per cent YoY
                                   AVERAGE YIELDS                                                                                                                                                                   to average around $228/sqm due to declining stock and increased
                                   Prime                                                                                               Secondary                                                                    competition for alternative uses.
                                        L                                            H                                                     L                                            H
                               4.54%                                        4.96%                                                  5.21%                                       5.68%                                The average prime net face rent across the West sub-markets has
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    increased by 5.3 per cent YoY to $130/sqm as at September 2019,
                                   AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2)                                                                                                                                                    while the average prime incentive has declined from 11 per cent a
                                   Prime                 Secondary                                                                                                                                                  year ago to circa 10 per cent now.

                                        L                                            H                                                     L                                            H
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Industrial investment activity in NSW has reached circa $1.97 billion
                               $3,055                                       $3,456                                                $2,369                                       $2,501
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    over the year to September 2019, driven by demand from private
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    and offshore investors, particularly from Japan and Europe. Yield
                                                               DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY                                                                                                                                   compression is forecast to continue on the back of a record low cash
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    rate (0.75 per cent) and bond yields trending downwards.
                                   2019                                                                                    ANNUAL AVERAGE
                                                                                                                           (2009-2018)                                                                              Limited land supply continues to drive a solid increase in land values
                                        533,810m2                                                                            473,930m2                                                                              across all industrial precincts in Sydney. The South precinct has
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    recorded the strongest land values growth of 29 per cent YoY to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    September, remaining as the most sought after location for industrial
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    operators, developers and investors willing to pay an average of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $2,750/sqm.

 Sydney Average Net Face Rents by Grade                                                                                                                                                                             Sydney Average Yields by Grade

               $180                                                                                                                                                                                                            12%
               $160
               $140                                                                                                                                                                                                            10%
               $120                                                                                                                                                                                                            8%
Rent ($/sqm)

               $100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Yield (%)

                $80                                                                                                                                                                                                            6%
                $60                                                                                                                                                                                                            4%
                $40
                $20                                                                                                                                                                                                            2%
                 $0                                                                                                                                                                                                            0%
                      Sep-09
                               Mar-10
                                        Sep-10
                                                 Mar-11
                                                          Sep-11
                                                                   Mar-12
                                                                            Sep-12
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-19

                                                                      Prime Grade                                                          Secondary Grade                                                                                                                      Prime Grade                                                           Secondary Grade

 Source: Colliers Edge                                                                                                                                                                                              Source: Colliers Edge

 6
INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

By Alex Pham                                                             in the South West and Inner West markets over the past 12 months.
Director | Research                                                      The average prime net face rents in the South West and Inner West
alex.pham@colliers.com
                                                                         precincts rose by 6.6 and 6.3 per cent YoY to $116 and $143/sqm
Conditions in the Sydney industrial market have remained positive        respectively. With relatively more moderate growth, prime net face
over the third quarter of 2019. Demand continues to be driven by         rents in the North West and Central West increased by 2.8 and
the Transport, Postal & Warehousing and Wholesale Retail sectors.        2.0 per cent to $128 and $130/sqm respectively. Prime incentives
Growth in e-commerce activity and infrastructure investment is           currently average around 9 - 12 per cent across all sub-markets in
supporting the logistics sector and demand for warehouses in             the West.
strategic locations. Following the steady supply of new industrial       Secondary assets in the Western markets also registered
space during 2019 with 533,810sqm of space delivered, the rate of        increases in rents over the past 12 months due to the high level of
new construction activity is expected to slow down in 2020. Since        requirements for existing industrial facilities. On average, secondary
the beginning of this year, a total of 221,793sqm of new industrial      net face rents across all sub-markets in the West have risen by
space have been completed.                                               5.8 per cent per annum to around $116/sqm. In line with the prime
On the back of the positive space demand amid limited supply, net        market, the Outer West secondary market also recorded the sharpest
face rents have continued to rise across the board. The average          escalation in net face rents – which rose by 11.1 per cent YoY to
prime rent in Sydney has increased by 7.9 per cent to $155/sqm in        $120/sqm. The strong rental growth has spilt over to the South West
September 2019 from $144/sqm a year ago. For secondary assets,           precinct, where the average secondary net face rent has increased
net face rents averaged around $132/sqm, which was up 7.1 per cent       by 8.8 per cent YoY to $105/sqm. Softer growth was recorded in
YoY. Incentives have declined from 10 per cent from a year ago to        the Inner West, North West and Central West sub-markets, where
circa 9.0 per cent for prime and secondary properties as at 3Q 2019.     secondary net face rents have risen by 4.4, 3.1 and 2.1 per cent to
                                                                         $118, $115 and $120 respectively. Incentives are being offered at
Investment Market                                                        around 9.0 to 11.0 per cent.

The rate of capital flows into the industrial market has accelerated     Investment yields have continued to trend down further across all
over the past quarter with demand stemming from both institutional       sub-markets in the West. Core market yields have compressed by
and private investors. Most importantly, Colliers International          around 50 bps over the past 12 months. Core market yields for
continues to witness the healthy buying activity of private buyers as    prime assets are currently sitting at 4.5 to 5.0 per cent. Secondary
well as offshore investors – particularly from Japan and Europe. The     properties are trading at around 5.0 to 6.0 per cent. Land prices
amount of dry power remains high, with many groups have recently         across the West market have increased by over 24 per cent over the
completed capital raises to put in the logistics sector. Over the 12     past year to average between $670 and $820/sqm.
months to September 2019, a total of $1.97 billion worth of industrial
assets in NSW have transacted, which is slightly lower than the
corresponding volumes a year ago.

A notable transaction occurring in the third quarter of this year was
159 Newton Road, Wetherill Park purchased by a private investor
from Lester Group for $24.4 million. The transaction represents
an initial yield of 5.71 per cent and a building rate of $1,928/sqm.
Another benchmark deal was 230-236 Captain Cook Drive, Kurnell
which was transacted as a sale & lease back for $36 million from
Dika Data to EG Funds. The purchase price reflects an initial yield
of 5.90 per cent and a building rate of $2,256/sqm. With the cash
rate sitting at its record low level of 0.75 per cent and bond yields
continuing to trend down, Colliers International anticipates yields to
compress further and to stay low for a while longer.

Sub-Markets
West
Industrial space demand has remained solid across all sub-markets
in the West, which saw rents elevated compared to a year ago.
The average prime net face rent across the West sub-markets has
increased by 5.3 per cent YoY to $130/sqm as at September 2019.
The average prime incentive has declined from 11 per cent a year
ago to circa 10 per cent as at 3Q 2019. By sub-markets in the West,
the Outer West market recorded the most substantial growth in
prime net face rents, which rose by 9.9 per cent over the past year      64 Biloela Street, Villawood
to $128/sqm as at Q3 2019. Strong rental growth was also recorded        Sold on behalf of AMP Capital

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INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

North                                                                    South
The industrial market across the Northern suburbs of Sydney              Due to declining stock and increased competition for alternative uses,
continues to experience a lack of supply and limited stock levels. Net   the South industrial sub-market has recorded the most substantial
face rents for prime industrial space have climbed by 3.0 per cent       rental increase among all sub-markets in Sydney over the past 12
over the 12 months to September 2019 to average around $206/sqm.         months. Prime net face rents have risen by 21.3 per cent YoY to
In the secondary space market, net face rents currently sit at circa     average around $228/sqm as at September 2019. Secondary rents
$168/sqm on average, up by 3.7 per cent from the previous year.          have increased by 15.0 per cent over the past year to average around
While rents in areas further North such as Hornsby and Ku-ring-gai       $180/sqm as at 3Q 2019. Incentives for both prime and secondary
are at similar levels to the Western suburbs, rents start to escalate    stock are currently sitting at 7-8 per cent. Due to significant rental
in the precincts closer to the commercial and population hubs of         increases, many of the traditional industrial users have continued to
Macquarie Park, Chatswood and St Leonards. Incentive levels range        relocate to more affordable markets. At the same time, the tenant
quite extensively depending on the type of assets and owners.            base has broadened to higher-value uses such as car and furniture
Privately-owned assets are offering incentives of around 5 per cent      showrooms, wholesale retailing, import-export goods and services,
while institutional-grade properties are giving away up to 15 per cent   as well as non-traditional tenancies such as childcare, education
in incentives to attract the right user.                                 centres, gyms, clinics and independent coffee roasters.

The tenant base in the North sub-market continues to shift toward        The investment market remains active with strong demand for
higher-value industrial users such as medical, IT, construction and      mixed-use development sites and small industrial units. Strata
automobile services. Investors are facing stiff competition from         industrial assets in the South market continue to transact well with
owner-occupiers, who are willing to pay a premium to secure              new projects still coming to market. There are a couple of site sales
strategic positions for their business. Investment yields for prime      around Green Square and mascot railway for mixed-use commercial
assets in the area are currently around 4.75-5.00 per cent and for       development. Investment yields have continued to get tighter over
secondary assets are around 5.25-5.75 per cent. However, the             the past 12 months. Prime industrial buildings are being traded
market is starting to see some well-located assets traded at sub-5       at between 4.5 and 4.75 per cent, while secondary assets are
per cent as the competitive pressure continues to build up. A recent     transacting at 5.0 and 5.25 per cent.
example was 11-13 Rhodes Street in West Ryde transacted a 4.5 per
cent initial yield for $7.9 million. The buyer is an owner-occupier in
the construction supply business.

13 Ferndell Street, South Granville
Sold on behalf of Centuria Capital

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INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

MELBOURNE
OVERVIEW
Market Indicators - September 2019                                           Industrial developers are starting to consider what the warehouse
                                                                             of the future might look like, with advancements in robotics and
              AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)                                  automation driving demand for higher internal clearance to increase
              Prime                Secondary                                 storage volumes and accommodate for new age picking and
                                                                             palletising equipment.
               L                 H             L               H
             $104            $119             $72             $84
                                                                             Strong leasing demand, particularly in the West where 2019
                                                                             pre-commitment requirements are tracking at almost 5 times the
              AVERAGE YIELDS                                                 long-term annual average. Speculative development activity is
              Prime                           Secondary                      increasing in response to this trend.
               L                 H             L               H
            5.45%           6.00%            6.50%           7.10%           Industrial areas are set to benefit from major new infrastructure
                                                                             projects and freeway upgrades improving connectivity and reducing
                                                                             travel times to and from the Port of Melbourne.
              AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2)
              Prime                 Secondary
                                                                             Land values are increasing off the back of strong leasing demand and
               L                 H             L               H
                                                                             take-up coupled with the dwindling supply of industrial land across
            $1,750          $2,229           $1,032          $1,314
                                                                             Victoria.

                        DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY                                   Investment demand continues to be very strong, and stock remains
                                                                             tightly held, with the majority of transaction activity in 2019 being
              2019                          ANNUAL AVERAGE
                                            (2009-2018)                      secondary assets or turn-key developments. Total volume is forecast
                                                                             to be around $1 billion which is low compared to previous years but
               201,800m2                    381,940m2                        is expected to bounce back in 2020. Strong demand relative to the
                                                                             supply of investment grade stock has driven a tightening of prime
                                                                             and secondary yields across all precincts.

Prime Initial Reversionary Yield                                             Land Values

    10.0%                                                      Forecast              $1,600

    9.0%                                                                             $1,400

                                                                                     $1,200
    8.0%
                                                                                     $1,000
    7.0%
                                                                             $/sqm
%

                                                                                      $800

    6.0%                                                                              $600

                                                                                      $400
    5.0%
                                                                                      $200
    4.0%                                                                                $-
            Mar-20
            Mar-06

            Mar-08
            Mar-05

            Mar-09

            Sep-20

            Mar-22
            Sep-06

            Sep-08
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            Sep-22
            Mar-07
            Sep-07

            Mar-10
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            Mar-12

            Mar-21
            Mar-14

            Mar-16

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            Sep-21
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            Sep-16

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                                                                                                                North                                            South East                                                    West                                               Outer East                                                     City Fringe
            North       South East   West       Outer East     City Fringe

Source: Colliers International                                               Source: Colliers International

9
INDUSTRIAL Second Half 2019 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

By Sarah Walker                                                           to advanced manufacturing are the most prevalent availability and
Manager | Research                                                        proximity of a skilled labour force and the CBD. As the landscape
sarah.walker@colliers.com
                                                                          changes for industrial occupiers in fringe precincts, new retail and

Overview                                                                  lifestyle amenity becomes a necessity. In Port Melbourne, this has
                                                                          seen the emergence of tenants like Sensory Lab Coffee Roasters,
There are a few key themes to note across the industrial market in        Starward Whiskey, Colonial Brewing Co and event spaces like The
Victoria this quarter. The first is the continued strength in leasing     Timber Yard and Half Acre. We forecast rents to continue to grow as
demand across the board which is in part driven by the e-commerce         precincts gentrify further and industrial landlords seek to replace the
effect but also by supply chain improvements that allow for               traditional industrial occupier with the likes of the above. On average
consolidation and expansion into larger, more modern warehouses           face rentals in the City Fringe for prime stock are $200/sqm and
where there is land available to develop them, i.e. Melbourne’s West      $110/sqm for secondary. Incentives have continued steady at 8 per
in particular.                                                            cent for prime and 12 per cent for secondary.
Secondly, industrial developers are starting to consider what the         The most notable investment sale in the City Fringe this year to date
warehouse of the future might look like. Advancements in robotics         was 127 Todd Road, Port Melbourne which was sold by The Herald
and automation is driving demand for warehouses with higher               and Weekly Times (HWT) to Blackstone. The $55 million price tag in
internal clearance, higher speed data connections and other changes       April this year for the 5.82ha site reflects an underlying land value of
to the traditional design elements to respond to new age storage          approximately $945/sqm. The asset was purchased with a short-term
solutions and supply chain management. More and more tenants              leaseback to HWT at approximately $115/sqm. Average yields
are viewing automation as essential in new warehouse design and           continue with a steady decline averaging 5.38 per cent for prime and
placing a huge emphasis on the automation of their distribution           6.13 per cent for secondary- the recent interest rate drop will slow
centres to increase productivity and efficiency in the supply             the rate of future compression.
chain. Whilst buildings are currently valued on a rate per sqm, as
warehouses trend towards automation and higher clearances we can
                                                                          North
see valuation methodologies adapting.                                     One of the world’s largest supermarket chains, Kaufland is opening
                                                                          its first Australian distribution centre at MAB’s Merrifield Business
Furthermore, across all industrial precincts, face rents are increasing
                                                                          Park. The 28ha site encompasses a purpose-built distribution centre
as underlying land values continue to grow and yields are continuing
                                                                          that will be the largest of its kind in Australia. The Merrifield Business
to firm in response to lower interest rates and a shortage of
                                                                          Park was chosen due to its location on the Hume Freeway, proximity
investment stock available relative to demand. We forecast rents
                                                                          to the city and ability to cater for future expansion. The $255 million-
to continue growing, particularly in areas set to benefit from major
                                                                          dollar distribution centre will incorporate 40-metre high-bay storage
infrastructure projects already underway or close to commencing,
                                                                          areas, an emerging trend that responds to increased reliance on
such as the West Gate Tunnel, North East Link, and the Mordialloc
                                                                          robotics and automation.
Bypass.
                                                                          Face rentals in the north have remained steady for the last 6 months
Sub-Markets                                                               at an average of $85/sqm for prime and $70/sqm for secondary
                                                                          assets. Incentives remain at 15 per cent for prime and 12 per cent for
City Fringe
                                                                          secondary assets.
Land tax increases are negatively impacting the city fringe industrial
markets by driving occupancy costs higher and prompting tenants           Despite investment sale volumes being down on last year, there
to consider relocating further from the CBD. This is particularly         have been some key major site sales including the Ford site in
notable in Port Melbourne where outgoings are now above $60/sqm           Broadmeadows. Pelligra, who purchased the site from Ford, has
in the Fishermans Bend Urban Renewal Area and above $40/sqm               earmarked the existing building on site as a hub that will provide for
in the Employment Precinct. This increase is continuing to push           several smaller tenancies to be leased to industrial occupiers. In the
leasing demand from the more traditional logistics operators further      long term, the balance of the surplus land will be redeveloped.
West where land values and economic rents are significantly less.         At the conclusion of the third quarter the northern market’s vacancy
The West Gate Tunnel project due for completion in 2022 provides          rate for buildings above 3,000sqm was 5.86 per cent across 21
further encouragement for logistics operators to migrate further          buildings, with A Grade vacancy much tighter at 2.14 per cent. This is
West by providing direct access for trucks to Citylink and the Port of    the result of increased demand in the North and the scarcity of prime
Melbourne.                                                                grade stock currently available, in a market that has not traditionally
Leasing demand remains the strongest in employment precincts as           added much new development stock year on year. This will change
opposed to urban renewal areas due to relatively lower occupancy          in the coming years with developers like Frasers and Vaughans being
costs. Research and development companies in the automotive               able to accommodate for pre-lease and speculative demand in Epping
sector and other high-tech industrial users including those linked        and as Pelligra starts to develop the surplus land on the Ford site.

10
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

West                                                                    steady at an average of 6.75 per cent, however we expect to see
                                                                        some compression in 2020 off the back of falling interest rates and
Melbourne’s West is one of the fastest growing industrial areas
                                                                        strong investment demand.
in Australia. Its popularity stems from its proximity to the Port of
Melbourne, and connectivity to major arterials which reduces travel     South East and Outer East
times and increases efficiency in supply chains. Coupled with the       A notable trend in the South East and Outer East markets in 2019
ability to access large parcels of land, this market continues to       has been sale and lease back transactions. Of the total investment
attract major corporate occupiers, e-commerce businesses and high       sales this year, approximately 52 per cent have been purchased by
profile 3PLs seeking larger warehouse footprints relatively close to    an Institution, with the predominant vendors being corporate owner
the Port and the CBD. The automation trend is prevalent here also,      occupiers. Some examples include 67-91 Nathan Road, Dandenong
with Woolworths recently commencing construction of their new           South and 282-300 Hammond Road, Dandenong South which were
Fresh Distribution Centre in Truganina to replace the existing centre   both sold by owner-occupiers to Charter Hall for $18.6 million and
in Mulgrave. On completion, the warehouse will comprise 14km of         $30.9 million respectively. 649-655 Springvale Road, Mulgrave was
conveyor belts serviced by robots, a $560 million investment in         sold to Fife Capital by Rinaldi Pasta who have consolidated into their
automation to improve productivity and efficiency. Toyota Australia     neighbouring facility. Fife purchased the 20,000sqm property for
proposed a fleet of autonomous autopilot vehicles from their Altona     $26 million with plans to redevelop it.
factory in 2020. Toyota will have autopilot driverless technology
to complete mobility in conveyance, towing, lifting and be able to      The South East and Outer East markets are much more land
autonomously place product throughout the warehouse and pick            constrained than the West, which drives developers to consider the
orders for customers.                                                   acquisition of vacant brownfield sites or long-term land banking plays
                                                                        like Charter Hall’s acquisition of the Bombadier Transport site. Land
Demand is outstripping supply with vacancy rates sitting around 2.5     values in this sub-market are the highest outside of the City Fringe
per cent for prime grade stock above 5,000sqm. The rising trend         averaging $ 500/sqm in the South East and $443/sqm in the Outer
of e-commerce companies attracted to the West continues, with           East.
eStore Logistics recently committing to two leases in Truganina; a
26,000sqm facility at 8 Feldsted Drive and another circa 8,400sqm       Leasing activity is increasing due to pent up demand from corporate
development at West Industry Park. These two new distribution           occupiers wanting to be located in new or modern buildings in the
centres will comprise leading automated technology to ensure an         Bayside area. Fraser’s “Braeside Industrial Estate” has secured a
optimal supply chain, with same day delivery.                           lease with Puma, the third speculative tenancy in the development.
                                                                        Puma have committed to a 14,110sqm warehouse which will be 5
There has been a combined total of 540,000sqm take up across            Green Star and worth approximately $25 million on completion.
pre-leases and existing building transactions above 3,000sqm this       Puma will join IVE Group occupying 14,133sqm and Gale Pacific
year with the average size deal approximately 15,500sqm. This           Group who will occupy 10,643sqm both all speculatively built. Once
reflects a year on year increase of 258,000sqm.                         these three speculative sites are built, Frasers will spec another
About 30 per cent of all leasing deals so far in 2019 have been         24,000sqm with a remaining pad site that can accommodate
in Truganina, with some of the larger existing deals including          approximately 35,000sqm. The major drawcard for this site is the
HB Commerce (30,000sqm), Secon (23,000sqm) and Estore                   proximity to the proposed Mordiallic Bypass which will be 500m
(8,383sqm). Pre-lease activity has also been predominantly              from the Estate. Rents remained steady for prime assets averaging
concentrated in Truganina with deals including Super Amart              $93/sqm in the South East and $99/sqm in the Outer East.
(50,000sqm), CEVA (38,000sqm) and Orora (8,000sqm). Face rents          Movement was recorded for secondary in the South East increasing
for prime grade assets currently average $81/sqm and $65/sqm for        7 per cent in the last quarter to average $75/sqm due to lack of
secondary assets, with incentives averaging 20 per cent across the      available prime stock. Lack of available stock has enabled landlords
board.                                                                  to decrease incentives across prime stock to 18 per cent in the South
                                                                        East and 12 per cent in the Outer East.
Transaction activity has been steady, with Mapletree Logistics Trust
recently purchasing a speculative development project of 15,100sqm
at 15 Boterro Place, Truganina for $18.4 million to be completed next
year.

In the last three years, land values have doubled and currently
average $325/sqm (serviced). The market is fuelled by demand from
Institutions who remain heavily dominant, particularly with respect
to land ownership and development. A noteworthy recent land
transaction is ISPT‘s acquisition of 744 Boundary Road, Truganina,
an unzoned vacant site within the Urban Growth Boundary which
they purchased for $23.1 million. Average yields for prime assets
have tightened 50bps in the last 6 months to 5.25 per cent due to
the limited supply of investment stock coming to market relative
                                                                        17-23 Redwood Drive, Dingley
to record high demand. Yields on secondary stock have remained          Leased on behalf of Chromagen Australia

11
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

 BRISBANE
 OVERVIEW
 Market Indicators* - September 2019                                                             The proposed dedicated freight rail between Acacia Ridge and
                                                                                                 the Port will accelerate the industrial development activity in the
                                                                                                 Southern and Australia TradeCoast (ATC) precincts, with a significant
                           AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)
                                                                                                 level of demand from logistics, transport and distribution operators.
                           Prime                Secondary
                                                                                                 The development supply in Greater Brisbane and Yatala is forecast
                             L              H                   L                H
                                                                                                 to reach circa 317,650sqm in 2019, potentially remaining above the
                           $107            $114                $72              $90              long-term average of circa 261,000sqm.

                           AVERAGE YIELDS                                                        Land value growth has accelerated over the past few months
                           Prime                               Secondary                         increasing across several precincts in the range of 1 to 6.5 per cent
                             L              H                   L                H               for the year to September, to an average of $321/sqm (including
                                                                                                 Yatala). The ATC recorded the strongest annual growth of land values
                          5.70%           6.18%              7.15%            7.90%
                                                                                                 of 6.4 per cent, to $415/sqm.

                           AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2)                                         Prime grade leasing activity dominates the market, driven by the
                           Prime                 Secondary                                       relocation and expansion activity within the Yatala and South
                             L              H                   L                H               precincts. The average net face rents in Greater Brisbane and Yatala
                         $1,736           $2,012              $926            $1,260             increased by 1.3 per cent, to $111/sqm in September this year. Rental
                                                                                                 activity within the secondary market continues to soften, revealing
                                                                                                 the flight-to-quality phenomenon extended across the different
                                     DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY                                          Australian property asset classes.

                           2019                            ANNUAL AVERAGE                        The Brisbane industrial property market has become an attractive
                                                           (2009-2018)                           investment option for institutional investors due the stronger returns
                             317,650m2                      260,670m2                            compared to other national and worldwide investment options in
                                                                                                 property and non-property asset classes. The year-to-date volume
                                                                                                 of sales (above $5 million) in Greater Brisbane and Yatala of $1.09
 * Includes the following precincts: ATC, North and Outer North, South, South West and Yatala
                                                                                                 billion is on track to outperform the 2018 sale volumes.

                                                                                                 Fierce competition for industrial assets across a broad spectrum of
                                                                                                 investment players has driven further compression of yields in the
                                                                                                 range of 40 to 50bps over the past year. Prime grade investments
                                                                                                 are transacting at an average yield of 5.94 per cent while secondary
                                                                                                 grade assets are trading at an average yield of 7.53 per cent.

 Brisbane Industrial Sales ($5 million+)                                                         Brisbane Average Net Face Rent by Grade ($ per sqm)

                $1,600                                                                                         $160
                $1,400                                                                                         $140
                $1,200                                                                                         $120
                                                                                                AUD$ per sqm
$AUD millions

                $1,000                                                                                         $100

                 $800                                                                                          $80

                 $600                                                                                          $60
                                                                                                               $40
                 $400
                                                                                                               $20
                 $200
                                                                                                                $0
                   $0                                                                                            Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19
                         2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
                                                                                     YTD
                                         Domestic    Offshore    Undisclosed                                            Prime           Secondary          Prime to Secondary Rent Premium

 Source: Colliers Edge                                                                           Source: Colliers Edge

 12
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

By Karina Salas                                                          Keppel Logistics (10,480sqm) and Concept Logistics (6,950sqm) are
Manager | Research                                                       a few of the tenants expanding or relocating within the Southern
karina.salas@colliers.com
                                                                         precincts this year.

Investment Market                                                        The South West precinct has seen strong demand of pre-committed
                                                                         activity, with the Australia Post Facility (48,748sqm) and Coles
REITs driving demand of industrial assets
                                                                         Distribution Centre (66,000sqm) supporting nearly one third of the
The estimated volume of sales of $1.09 billion was largely driven by
                                                                         development supply within the precinct over the next three years.
large-scale transactions above $100 million (contributing to nearly
40 per cent of the total sales). The surge of REITs as an attractive     Upon completion of the Logan Enhancement Project, Berrinba has
investment vehicle worldwide is driving demand for large industrial      now consolidated as a favoured location for industrial tenants with
assets in Brisbane with nearly half of the sales this year ($505         leasing deals of circa 82,000sqm over the year to date. This includes
million) acquired by Australian and offshore REITs. This compares        pre-commitment deals with CEVA Logistics (21,200 sqm), DHL
with an estimated participation of REITs in the Brisbane investment      (20,600sqm), Huhtamaki (food packaging operator, 12,635sqm) and
market for industrial assets of circa 20 per cent in 2018 and circa 5    Phoenix Transport (10,000sqm) and leases of existing assets with
per cent in 2017.                                                        WING Aviation (drone-delivery operator, 17,800sqm).

As the current infrastructure investment in projects like the M1         New industrial development supply at Berrinba between 2019 and
Pacific Motorway and the Logan Enhancement Project strengthens           2022 is forecast at circa 268,360sqm, with nearly 30 per cent (circa
the outlook of the industrial market, REITs have identified Brisbane     79,200sqm) of the space reaching practical completion in 2019.
as a strategic location for industrial investments providing long-WALE   Our forecast includes the purpose-built industrial facilities for Mitre
rental streams. Colliers International anticipates that REITs will       10 (27,500sqm) and QLS Logistics (12,000sqm) at the Motorway
continue to drive a large portion of investment demand of Brisbane       Industrial Park and the Pinnacle Hardware warehouse (12,000sqm)
industrial assets over the next 12 to 18 months. This is because the     at Berrinba Logistics Park completed in H1 2019.
Brisbane industrial market continues to consolidate as a preferred       Colliers International anticipates that the suburb of Crestmead
location for a variety of operators looking for affordable large-scale   will see the next wave of leasing deals due to its proximity to the
warehouses in proximity to a transport network offering cost-            upgraded roads along the Logan Motorway and the availability of
efficient connectivity to national and international markets.            vacant industrial land along Green Road largely owned by institutional
The solid demand from REITs underpins the lift on the average sale       investors (estimated at circa 40ha).
price (for transactions above $5 million) from circa $15 million in      Prime grade assets drive operational efficiencies and
2018 to an estimated average of circa $24 million over the year to       rental growth
date. We have also noted a reduction in the number of investment
                                                                         Tenant’s preference for quality assets prompting operational
sales above $5 million from circa 75 transactions in 2018 to circa 46
                                                                         efficiencies has put upward pressure on the premium paid for prime
transactions for the year to date.
                                                                         grade assets compared to the rent paid for secondary assets. The
So far in 2019, the South precinct remains as the main location of       current average prime grade net face rent of $111/sqm is $30/sqm
investment transactions, with circa $501 million sales representing      more expensive than the average net face rent for secondary assets
46 per cent of the total sales volumes. The most notable transaction     of $81/sqm. This compares to a 10-year average rental premium of
was the sale of the Crestmead Distribution Centre at 105-137             prime to secondary assets of $24/sqm. As tenants’ requirements
Magnesium Drive in Crestmead for $183.6 million acquired by              for asset quality and location continue to drive demand of industrial
Charter Hall REIT at a passing yield of 5.15 per cent from Blackstone.   assets, we expect to see an upward trend on the premium rent paid
The building offering 89,254sqm of gross lettable area is leased to      for prime grade assets compared to secondary grade assets.
the wholesale distribution and marketing company, Metcash Trading,
with a WALE of 10 years.

The long-standing reduced cost of debt and the current low levels
of the Australian bond yield are forecast to continue to drive further
yield compression into 2020.

Leasing Market
Southern precincts leading leasing activity
The recent completion of the $512 million Logan Enhancement
Project and the ongoing upgrade of the M1 Pacific Motorway
support the consolidation of the Southern industrial precincts as a
strategic location for industrial expansion in southeast Queensland.
Leasing demand of existing industrial space in the South and South
West precincts has been solid over the year to date, with circa
214,000sqm of gross lettable area (GLA) tenanted.                        1-7 Wayne Goss Drive, Berrinba
                                                                         on behalf of Ascendas (now Capitaland) to WING Aviation

13
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

ADELAIDE
OVERVIEW
Market Indicators - September 2019                          Infrastructure investment remains key for growth in the Adelaide
                                                            industrial market, with the most recent state budget committing $5.4
             AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)                  billion to the final stages of the North-South Corridor. The state
             Prime                Secondary                 government has committed to the entire corridor to be completed
                                                            within a decade.
              L                  H      L           H
             $88             $121      $56          $75
                                                            Vacancy falls to a record low of 2.7 per cent down from 3.7 per cent.
                                                            This has been driven by vacancy in the Inner North falling to 1.7 per
             AVERAGE YIELDS                                 cent. Relatively low vacancy rates are expected to result in some
             Prime                     Secondary            higher than average rental growth over the next two years. More
              L                  H      L           H       design & construct activity is expected due to low vacancy.
           6.65%            8.20%     8.30%        9.70%
                                                            Prime gross face rents have started to grow across most markets.
                                                            The Inner North rents are not far from the peak in 2013 with the Outer
             AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m )    2

                                                            North needing to see growth of 16 per cent to be at the same level as
             Prime                 Secondary
                                                            the peak (which is expected over the medium term).
              L                  H      L           H
           $1,337           $1,458     $685        $789
                                                            New supply reaches decade highs with circa 152,500sqm of space due
                                                            to complete in 2019. This is the highest level of new supply seen since
                        DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY                  2007. There is 220,107sqm currently under construction with major
                                                            projects including the new Metcash DC, Sigma Healthcare DC, new
             2019                    ANNUAL AVERAGE         Huhtamaki DC and the expansion of Woolworths DC. Pre-commitment
                                     (2009-2018)            activity has driven the new supply with very limited speculative
              152,500m2               63,880m2              development. Large institutional developers have become more
                                                            actively involved in the development of new Distribution Centres.

                                                            Prime yields are starting to tighten in key precincts over the last
                                                            12 months. Outer North has tightened 50bps with the Inner North
                                                            tightening 25bps over the same period. Scope for further tightening in
                                                            yields is expected.

Adelaide Industrial Vacancy                                 Total Adelaide Industrial Supply

7.00%
                                                                       200
6.00%                                                                  180
5.00%                                                                  160
                                                                       140
4.00%                                                                  120
                                                           '000s sqm

3.00%                                                                  100
                                                                        80
2.00%
                                                                        60
1.00%                                                                   40
                                                                        20
0.00%
                                                                         0
                                                                             2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Colliers International                              Source: Colliers International

14
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

By Kate Gray                                                                  Land values in the Outer North have remained stable over the last 12
Director | Research                                                           months and is now in the range of $35-$85/sqm.
kate.gray@colliers.com
                                                                              Inner North
Market Outlook                                                                Vacancy in the Inner North has fallen to a record low of 1.6 per cent,
The outlook for the Adelaide investment market is positive, with              down from 4.2 per cent over the last half of the year. Prime net face
rate cuts and increased demand improving the investment outlook.              rents have grown by 4.9 per cent y-o-y and are in the range of $90-
Demand for investment grade stock is expected to remain high with             $125/sqm. Secondary net face rents have remained stable and are
the buyer pool strengthening. We expect that institutional owners             in the range of $50-80/sqm. Incentives are unchanged with prime
will continue to be active, but there will continue to be opportunities       incentives ranging between 5-15 per cent and secondary 10-15 per
for businesses to purchase sites as owner occupiers. The increased            cent.
competition, reduced cost of debt and relatively high yield spread            The Inner North has over 195,000sqm of space under construction
compared to the eastern seaboard is expected to result in yields              and due to complete during 2019 and 2020. Major projects include
compressing further in the short term. This is most relevant for              the Sigma Healthcare DC (10,000sqm), expansion of the Woolworths
prime grade investment stock with long WALEs which are expected               DC (94,000sqm), Metcash new DC (68,000 sqm) and Huhtamaki
to lead the way in yield compression.                                         DC (8,000sqm). As the ramp up to construction for the Frigates
                                                                              and submarine project nears, we expect further construction in the
Investment Market                                                             Inner North precinct around Osbourne to support the growth in the
Despite the abolishment of stamp duty on commercial transactions              defence sector.
in July 2018, sales volumes to September 2019 have reached $107.8
                                                                              Prime yields have tightened and range between 6.25-8.00 per cent
million compared to $278.9 million in 2018. Institutional owners have
                                                                              with secondary yields unchanged at 8.00-10.00 per cent.
accounted for 59 per cent of the sales volume this year compared to
43 per cent in 2018. Institutional owners have accounted for 59 per           Land values have increased 2.3 per cent over last 12 months and fall
cent of the sales volume this year compared to 43 per cent in 2018.           within the range of $180-$260/sqm.

The east coast industrial markets have experienced significant                West & South
compression in industrial yields and investors are looking to                 Prime net face rents in the West have grown by 18 per cent ranging
Adelaide to balance their portfolio with higher yielding assets. There        from $125-$170/sqm. Secondary net face rents have grown by 9.4
is a significant amount of capital which is looking to be placed,             per cent and range between $75-$100/sqm Prime rents in the Inner
within the Adelaide market offering higher yields and an improved             South have grown by 4.5 per cent ranging $95-$135/sqm. Secondary
economic outlook due to investments in defence, mining, energy and            rents have grown by 10.7 per cent and range between $55-$85/sqm.
infrastructure. The renewed interest in Adelaide from institutional           Incentives are unchanged for both markets with prime incentives at
investors has resulted in yields starting to compress with prime              5-15 per cent and secondary at 10-15 per cent.
yields over the last 12 months tightening by 50bps in the Outer North,
                                                                              Prime yields in the West have tightened to range between 6.00-7.75
and 25bps in the Inner North. With the RBA indicating scope to make
                                                                              per cent. Secondary yields have tightened to range between 7.75-
further cuts to the cash rate, it is expected competition for assets will
                                                                              9.00 per cent. Yields in the Inner South have tightened with prime
increase driving further yield compression.
                                                                              yields between 6.00-7.75 per cent and secondary 7.75-9.00 per cent.

Sub-Markets                                                                   Land values in the West have grown by 2.2 per cent y-o-y and range
                                                                              between $370-$550/sqm. Land values in the Inner South have
Outer North
                                                                              remained stable and range between $350-$500/sqm.
The Outer North has seen vacancy increase to 7.6 per cent, up
from 6.7 per cent in March 2019. The Lionsgate Business Park had
significant activity since it was purchased by the Pelligra Group with
Levett Engineering, AMA Security, Sonnen, SA Power Networks,
Australian Cranes and Genis Steel all taking space in this precinct.

Drakes supermarkets have completed their 45,000sqm - $80 million
distribution centre at Edinburgh North. This new facility will see Drakes
depart from Metcash who have committed to a new facility.

Prime net face rents have increased by 18.5 per cent annually with a
rental range of $70-$90/sqm. Secondary rents have remained stable
with a range of $35-$50/sqm. Incentives have remained unchanged
at 10-15 per cent across both prime and secondary markets.

Prime yields have tightened by 50bp over the last 12 months with a
significant tightening at the lower end. The current range is 7.00 per cent
                                                                              19 Indama Street Regency Park
to 8.50 per cent. Yield compression was greater than other Adelaide
                                                                              Sold for $4.5m on behalf of a Private Client
sub-markets as the risks around the exit of Holden have reduced.

15
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

   PERTH
   OVERVIEW
   Market Indicators - September 2019                                                                      Global economic uncertainty has impacted both consumer and
                                                                                                           business confidence in WA. But buoyant global commodity demand is
                                          AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)                                    driving increased exploration investment in WA, which is starting to
                                          Prime                Secondary                                   flow through to improved landlord and investor sentiment for Perth’s
                                                                                                           industrial sector.
                                           L              H                  L              H
                                          $70            $87               $53             $73
                                                                                                           Vacancy had been in moderate decline since 2017 which assisted
                                                                                                           a mild recovery in Prime face rental rates in 2018-19 financial year.
                                          AVERAGE YIELDS                                                   However, continued developer activity, weak economic growth and a
                                          Prime                            Secondary                       subdued net tenant demand environment has seen vacancy begin to
                                           L              H                  L              H              increase over H1 2019.
                                      6.25%            7.75%              7.25%          8.50%
                                                                                                           The flight to quality is continuing to impact secondary grade stock
                                          AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m )            2                       vacancy and is driving redevelopment activity in precincts with dated
                                          Prime                 Secondary                                  stock - such as Kewdale/Welshpool and Bayswater/Bassendean.

                                           L              H                  L              H
                                      $1,000           $1,243              $673           $921             An improved outlook led to increased demand for land in core
                                                                                                           precincts, which had supported a 7.36 per cent increase in average
                                                                                                           vacant land values since 2018.
                                                   DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY
                                                                                                           Prime yields have continued to tighten during 2019. Low cost of
                                          2019                         ANNUAL AVERAGE
                                                                                                           funds and lack of more favourable yielding alternative investments
                                                                       (2009-2018)
                                                                                                           has seen robust investor interest in the higher yielding Perth market.
                                          197,930m2                     248,700m2                          The low interest rate environment has contributed to the weight of
                                                                                                           funds from superannuation seeking to be invested in the sector.

   Perth Industrial Space Supply                                                                           Perth Industrial Face Rents
                                                                                                                                    $140
                                400,000
                                                                                                                                    $120
                                350,000
                                                                                                        Average rents ($ per sqm)
Industrial Space Supply (sqm)

                                                                                                                                    $100
                                300,000
                                                                                                                                    $80
                                250,000
                                                                                                                                    $60
                                200,000
                                                                                                                                    $40
                                150,000
                                                                                                                                    $20
                                100,000
                                                                                                                                     $0
                                 50,000
                                                                                                                                       Sep-05
                                                                                                                                       Mar-06
                                                                                                                                       Sep-06
                                                                                                                                       Mar-07
                                                                                                                                       Sep-07
                                                                                                                                       Mar-08
                                                                                                                                       Sep-08
                                                                                                                                       Mar-09
                                                                                                                                       Sep-09
                                                                                                                                       Mar-10
                                                                                                                                       Sep-10
                                                                                                                                        Mar-11
                                                                                                                                        Sep-11
                                                                                                                                       Mar-12
                                                                                                                                       Sep-12
                                                                                                                                       Mar-13
                                                                                                                                       Sep-13
                                                                                                                                       Mar-14
                                                                                                                                       Sep-14
                                                                                                                                       Mar-15
                                                                                                                                       Sep-15
                                                                                                                                       Mar-16
                                                                                                                                       Sep-16
                                                                                                                                       Mar-17
                                                                                                                                       Sep-17
                                                                                                                                       Mar-18
                                                                                                                                       Sep-18
                                                                                                                                       Mar-19
                                                                                                                                       Sep-19

                                     0
                                          2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
                                                                                                                                           Prime Warehouse Rents (Net Face)   Secondary Warehouse Rents (Net Face)

   Source: Colliers International                                                                          Source: Colliers International

    16
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

By Quyen Quach                                                            Prime-grade incentives were stable between 15 and 20 per cent,
Associate Director | Research                                             while secondary incentives were between 10 and 25 per cent.
quyen.quach@colliers.com
                                                                          Vacancy continues to be a larger issue in the smaller end of the
Overview                                                                  market. However, the recent vacancy increase will likely have a
                                                                          dampening effect on rental recovery.
After a positive start to the 2019 calendar year, the leasing and
investment sales environment in the September quarter appears to          Yields tighten in 2019
be more subdued.                                                          While rents and value deterioration has largely impacted the
Economic conditions have been more stable, but growth has                 smaller end of the market, capital values of larger investment stock,
been slow to return - much slower than most would have like or            particularly institutional-grade assets, continued to be assisted by
anticipated. However, the foundations for a return to demand growth       yield compression during 2019.
are strengthening.
                                                                          Yields as low as 5.9 per cent have been reported for asset
Population growth has continued to accelerate, rising from an             transactions with strong lease covenants. Despite yield compression,
annualised growth of 0.93 per cent in March 2019 to 1.0 per cent          transaction activity in institutional-grade segment was relatively low,
in June 2019. Business investment spending is expected to start           with only five assets greater than $10 million changing hands in the
growing again in 2020, and contribute to economic growth instead of       first half of 2019. This continues to be a function of low availability
being the driver of its contraction.                                      as opposed to low investor appetite for this class of asset. The main
Buoyant export revenue to underpin investment                             obstacle for potential sellers is the lack of options with comparable or
revival                                                                   superior returns that they can divert capital into.

Resource exploration activity is trending higher, and laying the          In general, Perth’s industrial market yields were between 6.25 per
foundation for future investment spending growth. These explorations      cent to 7.75 per cent for prime-grade assets and 7.25 per cent and
have resulted from continued demand for the state’s vital natural         8.50 per cent for secondary assets. These yields, in comparison
resources such as iron ore, natural gas, lithium, rare earths and         to bonds and yields in other Australian cities, remain attractive to
various other; which is persisting despite global economic uncertainty.   investors and as a result, Colliers maintains a projection of further
                                                                          yield compression in the 2019-20 financial year.
Bumper export revenue has boosted state government royalty and
tax collections, permitting the state and local government to increase    Land values and new supply
public investment spending – which grew 10.1 per cent year-on-year        After a low year of supply in 2018, when completions amounted to
in the June 2019 quarter.                                                 91,915sqm (for buildings over 2,000sqm), 152,730sqm of space has
Why it’s taking so long                                                   been completed in the nine months to September 2019. Eventually,
                                                                          2019 is expected to see total completions of 209,905sqm in Perth’s
Its been an extended wait for a recovery in Perth’s industrial
                                                                          metropolitan area. Nearly half (91,590sqm) of this is in the south
sector. One factor, outside the business investment decline, that
                                                                          region, with 84,200sqm in the East and 22,145sqm in the north.
has hindered a rental rate recovery is supply. Despite weak net
                                                                          Colliers’ estimate for 2020 completions stands at 66,030sqm.
tenant demand, developers have continued to do their job – develop.
Development activity certainly slowed as the downturn unfolded, but       Signs of improving economic conditions had seen an increase in land
it did not cease.                                                         demand and Colliers analysis shows average core land values for lots
                                                                          between 2,000sqm and 10,000sqm increased 7.36 per cent between
Perth’s industrial floor-space continued to increase over the past four
                                                                          2018 and 2019. Core industrial land values were between $350 and
years - which contributed to the downward pressure on rents and
                                                                          $525/sqm in the September quarter 2019.
extending the time for the market to trough.

Although the continued development activity wasn’t a positive for
market rents or investor returns, it was good for construction jobs
and industrial space demand connected to the sector. It was also
good for the economy. Without it, the construction sector economic
conditions could have been worse.

Vacancy to keep leasing market competitive
Across metropolitan Perth, rents have continued to be stable in the
+2,000sqm market. The latest Colliers industrial vacancy survey
in October 2019 indicates an increase in vacancy. The industrial
vacancy rate across Perth’s metropolitan area was estimated to be
8.65 per cent for buildings in excess of 2,000sqm. This represented
approximately 866,810sqm of total space available for lease, up
from 765,300sqm in April. In the September 2019 quarter, prime
face rents remained between $70 and $90/sqm. At the same time,
                                                                          19 Miles Road, Kewdale
secondary rents were $50 to $75/sqm range.                                Sold for $45.25m on behalf of Coca-Cola Amatil Pty Ltd

17
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H2 2019

 NEWCASTLE
 OVERVIEW
 Market Indicators - September 2019                                                                      Infrastructure investment in significant projects like the M1 Upgrades
                                                                                                         and NorthConnex, the refurbishment of the John Hunter Hospital and
                             AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)                                               the Astral Aerolab Newcastle Airport are forecast to drive growth in
                             Prime                Secondary                                              industrial activity by either reducing operational costs or promoting
                                                                                                         industrial activity in defence or medical sectors.
                              L                  H                      L                     H
                             $100               $127                  $80                 $95            Leasing activity on the rise in the second half of 2019, with
                                                                                                         increasing enquiry particularly after the Federal election. Market
                             AVERAGE YIELDS                                                              participants have been from a broad array of industries, ranging from
                             Prime                                    Secondary                          the traditional mining and resource sectors together with distribution,
                              L                  H                      L                     H          agribusiness, e-commerce and port-related services. Rental Rates
                         4.95%                  6.70%               7.75%               8.25%            have steadily increased over the past three years, with the growth
                                                                                                         continuing across the board for the year to September.

                             AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2)
                                                                                                         Demand outstripping available supply of existing stock as a result of
                             Prime                 Secondary
                                                                                                         strong levels of enquiry across all sectors, particularly from Sydney
                              L                  H                      L                     H          based companies and major third-party logistics operators.
                        $1,350               $1,700                 $1,000              $1,250
                                                                                                         The shortage of supply of industrial buildings continues to drive
                                                                                                         land sales and create increased competition for existing buildings
                                        DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY*
                                                                                                         among tenants and occupiers who may not have suitable budgets or
                             2019                                ANNUAL AVERAGE                          timeframes to construct new industrial facilities.
                                                                 (2017-2018)
                               37,530m2                            25,950m2                              A shortage in available investment stock coupled with the falling cash
                                                                                                         rate environment is being reflected in continued yield compression.

 * Excludes owner-occupier developments

 Newcastle Industrial Rents -                                                                            2018 - 2019 Vacancy Rate by Precinct
 Workshop & Warehouse Rates
                                                                                                         Inner West
               $120
                                                                                                  $110
               $110                                                                                      Outer West
                                                                                       $105
               $100                                                           $95                             West
Rate per sqm

                                                           $90       $90
               $90    $88         $88     $88        $88
                                                                                                         South West
               $80

               $70                                                                                             Port

               $60
                                                                                                         North West
               $50
                      2011       2012     2013     2014    2015      2016     2017     2018      2019            0.0%   0.5%   1.0%   1.5%   2.0%     2.5%   3.0%   3.5%   4.0%   4.5%
                             Warehouse & Workshop $/sqm       Poly. (Warehouse & Workshop $/sqm)
                                                                                                                                              2019   2018

 Source: Colliers International                                                                          Source: Colliers International

 18
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