Insights ARTISAN PARTNERS - Where We Are Finding Growth

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Insights ARTISAN PARTNERS - Where We Are Finding Growth
Where We Are Finding Growth              ARTISAN PARTNERS
The Global Transition to a Sustainable
Energy Economy                           Insights
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Where We Are Finding Growth

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Artisan Partners Growth Team is committed to finding accelerating                                                                                                                                                                                                   Modern biofuels
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Other renewables
profit cycles globally and investing in reasonably valued companies that                                                                      140,000                                                                                                               Solar
                                                                                                                                                                                              Global direct primary                                                 Wind
are positioned for long-term growth. The team’s experience and broad                                                                          120,000                                                                                                               Hydropower
                                                                                                                                                                                              energy consumption

                                                                                                                        Terawatt Hour (TWh)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nuclear
knowledge of the global economy are key attributes helping it identify                                                                                                                                                                                              Gas
                                                                                                                                              100,000
growth opportunities, wherever they occur, for the four portfolios it
                                                                                                                                                    80,000                                                                                                          Oil
manages—Artisan Global Opportunities Fund, Artisan Global Discovery
                                                                                                                                                    60,000
Fund, Artisan Mid Cap Fund and Artisan Small Cap Fund.
                                                                                                                                                    40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Coal
Here, the team discusses compelling opportunities it is finding among
                                                                                                                                                    20,000
companies leading the transition to a sustainable energy economy. The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Traditional biomass
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team believes the world is in the early stages of a meaningful mix shift

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from hydrocarbon-based energy to renewables-powered energy enabled
by improving economics, social awareness and increasing regulatory                                                         Source: ourworldindata.org. Global Energy Consumption (2017).
pressures. These dynamics have enabled the team to uncover several
profit cycle opportunities globally. Before digging in, it is important to
                                                                                                                           Power-Generating Activities Have and Will Continue to
                                                                                                                           Negatively Impact the Environment
understand the historical milestones shaping and the drivers behind
                                                                                                                           The Industrial Revolution was a transformative period for humanity and
what can be a once-in-a-century transition.
                                                                                                                           shaped societies for several generations, though many of the innovations
The Industrial Revolution Laid the Foundation for Power                                                                    from this period have had negative effects on the environment. In recent
Generation Today                                                                                                           decades, scientists have observed exponential increases in heat-trapping
The Industrial Revolution, which most argue began in Great Britain in the                                                  greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. The lion’s share of
18th century, led to rapid industrialization and urbanization of previously                                                these gases is carbon dioxide (76%, exhibit 2), primarily from burning coal,
agrarian societies as science was increasingly applied to industry.                                                        natural gas and petroleum for electricity, heat, transportation and in the
Important breakthroughs were the use of coal to power electricity                                                          production of goods from raw materials (exhibit 2). The cumulative effect
and innovations such as the steam engine—used in manufacturing                                                             of these activities over the past 200 years has driven carbon parts per
production, trains and other machines. The petroleum-powered                                                               million (PPM) in the earth’s atmosphere ~50% higher (exhibit 2)—levels
internal combustion engine (ICE), developed later, became the driving                                                      not seen for ~3 million years when the Earth was ~2-3°C warmer and sea
force behind automobiles and planes, changing the way people and                                                           levels were estimated to be 50-80 feet higher—and the global surface
goods move around the planet. These fossil fuel-burning activities                                                         temperature ~1°C above pre-industrial levels.
played an important role in developing economies for several centuries,
                                                                                                                           Exhibit 2: Global Surface Temperatures and Carbon Emissions
helping drive exponential population (exhibit 1) and economic growth.
                                                                                                                                                     35                                                                                                             Other industry
Today, fossil fuels remain a core source of power for most economies’                                                                                                                                                                                               Flaring
                                                                                                                                                                               CO2 emissions by fuel type, World                                                    Cement
                                                                                                                                                     30
transportation and power grids (exhibit 1).                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Gas
                                                                                                                                Tonnes (Billions)

                                                                                                                                                     25
Exhibit 1: World Population1 and Global Direct Primary Energy Consumption
                                                                                                                                                     20                                                                                                             Oil
        12
                                              World Population                                                                                       15
        10
                                                                                                                                                     10
            8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Coal
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            2
                                                                                                                           Sources: ourworldindata.org (2019).
                                                                                                                                                      Global greenhouse gas emissions by gas
            0                                                                                                                       F-gases 2%
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                                                                                                                                    Nitrous Oxidet 6%                                                                                  Carbon Dioxide (fossil fuel and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            industrial processes) 65%
Source: ourworldindata.org. World Population Growth (2019). Forward population estimates are based on
                                                            1
                                                                                                                                    Methane 16%
UN projections.                                                                                  Modern biofuels
                                                                                                     Other renewables
            140,000                                                                                  Solar
                                              Where
                                           Global directWe  Are Finding Growth—The
                                                         primary               Wind Global Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
            120,000                                                                                  Hydropower                   Carbon Dioxide
                                           energy consumption
Wh)

                                                                                                     Nuclear                      (forestry and other land use) 11%
                                                                                                     Gas
5

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                                                   Global greenhouse gas emissions by gas                                 Exhibit 3: Meaningful Carbon Emission Reductions Are Required to Limit
                                                                                                                          the Global Surface Temperature Warming Pathway
      F-gases 2%
      Nitrous Oxidet 6%                                                                                                                                 Metric gigations of CO2 (GtCO2 ) per year
                                                   Global greenhouse gas emissions byCarbon
                                                                                     gas Dioxide (fossil fuel and
                                                                                             industrial processes) 65%
                                                                                                                          80
      Methane2%
      F-gases  16%
                                                                                                                          70                                                                                          Continued growth
      Nitrous Oxidet 6%                                                                 Carbon Dioxide (fossil fuel and   60
                                                                                             industrial processes) 65%
                                                                                                                          50
     Methane 16%
                                                                                                                          40                                                                                          McKinsey GEP
    Carbon Dioxide
                                                                                                                          30                                                                                          Reference Case, 2019
    (forestry and other land use) 11%
                                                                                                                          20                                                                                          2°C pathway
                                                                                                                          10
  Carbon Dioxide
Source:  IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the            0                                                                                          1.5°C pathway
  (forestry and other land use) 11%
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and

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             27-Oct-2020—Ice-core
L.A. Meyer (eds.)].                        data
                    IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland,   before
                                               151  pp. 1958. Mauna Loa data after 1958
                                 400                                                                                      Source: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the
                                                                                                                          Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and
                   (ppm) (ppm)

                                        27-Oct-2020—Ice-core data before 1958. Mauna Loa data after 1958
                                                                                                                          L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.
                                 350
                                 400
         CO2 Concentration

                                                                                                                          Attractive Economics and Increasing Regulatory Support
                                 300
                                 350                                                                                      Should Accelerate Wind and Solar Adoption
 CO2 Concentration

                                                                                                                          De-carbonizing the power grid is critical to achieving the 1.5°C warming
                                 250
                                 300
                                                                                                                          scenario, and wind and solar emit significantly less carbon than their

                                 200
                                                                                                                          fossil fuel counterparts per kilowatt hour of electricity produced (exhibit
                                 25010                  8        6              4               2                   0
                                                             Thousands of Years Ago                                       4). These alternatives have not always been economically viable, but

                                 200
                                                                                                                          recent breakthrough developments have enabled both technologies to
                                   10                   8        6              4               2                   0
                                                             Thousands of Years Ago                                       become more affordable than most fossil fuel alternatives.
Source: Scripps Institution of Oceanography (2020).
                                                                                                                          Exhibit 4: Renewables Powered Carbon Footprints are Significantly Lower
Many scientists believe continuing along the current path (without any                                                    than Hydrocarbon Based Energy

mitigation efforts) will cause further warming and long-lasting changes                                                                        Coal                                                                           870
in all areas of our climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe and                                                         Natural Gas
                                                                                                                             (combined cycle)                                                464
irreversible impacts on human civilization. By the middle of this century,
                                                                                                                          Coal, carbon capture
                                                                                                                            and sequestration                           156
under a worst-case scenario (defined as Representative Concentration
Pathway 8.5 by IPCC) annual GHG emissions could increase nearly                                                                Solar, residential              48

70% and the global surface temperature could be approximately 2.5°C                                                                  Solar, utility            41

above pre-industrial levels. The higher the average surface temperature                                                            Wind, onshore            14
climbs, the higher the likelihood of extreme weather events (heat waves,
                                                                                                                                             Nuclear        12
flooding, droughts, wildfires), decreasing crop yields, rising sea levels
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which would make certain parts of the planet uninhabitable, decreasing
                                                                                                                                                                    Grams of CO2 per kilowatt of electricity produced
water supply, conflict over limited resources (food, water, etc.) and
ultimately, population displacement.                                                                                      Source: Joshua D. Rhodes, PhD, The University of Texas at Austin, 2017.

                                                                                                                          An important catalyst was the 2011 Fukushima earthquake. Accompanying
A 1.5°C Warming Pathway Could Significantly Reduce                                                                        nuclear concerns, several European countries passed mandates which
Global Warming Risks
                                                                                                                          eliminated their own nuclear-power reliance. In Germany, this had the
Many scientists consider a 1.5°C warming scenario pathway (above
                                                                                                                          unintended consequence of forcing it to rely on the dirtiest burning coal,
pre-industrial levels) to be an upper limit for the change in the average
                                                                                                                          lignite. As a result, Germany (joined by other European countries) focused
earth surface temperature. This ceiling reduces the probability of the
                                                                                                                          increasingly on shifting from coal to cleaner energy sources—namely,
most extreme climate change outcomes. However, achieving a 1.5°C
                                                                                                                          wind and solar.
warming pathway by 2050 (by getting to net-zero emissions) will require
a rapid acceleration in both the development of sustainable alternatives                                                  The Europeans recognized a transition to wind and solar would require

and a reduction in GHG emissions (Exhibit 3).                                                                             technological improvements to make these renewable energy sources

                                                                   Where We Are Finding Growth—The Global Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
economically competitive with their hydrocarbon counterparts. This                                                we do not expect to see one from the U.S. Federal Government in the
drove an effort to reduce wind turbine material costs between 44%-78%                                             near-term due to lack of bi-partisan support.
from their peak between 2007 and 2010. Solar costs have also declined
                                                                                                                  Gaining political support for carbon taxes can be a difficult obstacle
since 2010, namely, with Crystalline PV modules (the semiconducting
                                                                                                                  to overcome, but it doesn’t appear to be limiting progress in the US.
material used in solar panels) approximately 90% cheaper. Further wind
                                                                                                                  The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory of
and solar cost reductions are expected through 2025 from increasing
                                                                                                                  electricity generators shows renewables (wind, solar and battery storage)
economies of scale, more competitive supply chains and further
                                                                                                                  are expected to make up a greater share of new electricity generation
technological improvements.
                                                                                                                  capacity in 2021 (81% vs 76% in 2020).
In the next three years, on a pure economic basis, generating a megawatt
                                                                                                                  Emissions trading systems (ETS) are another mechanism that work
from a greenfield renewable power plant is expected to be more
                                                                                                                  on a cap and trade principle designed to drive adoption of renewable
economic than operating an existing nuclear, coal and some natural
                                                                                                                  alternatives and a reduction in overall emissions. The cap places a limit
gas power plants (exhibit 5). These dynamics have made it increasingly
                                                                                                                  on total GHG emissions—notably declining over time as emissions fall—
attractive for utilities to convert their power grids to renewable sources.
                                                                                                                  and companies receive or buy tradeable GHG emission allowances. For
When new-build economics can compete with the economics of the
                                                                                                                  example, a company undershooting its emission allowance can sell to a
existing power fleet, we believe the next step-change of the transition
                                                                                                                  company who has overshot and needs additional allowances to avoid
to renewables will occur.
                                                                                                                  heavy fines.
Exhibit 5: Estimated Costs of Generation Resources Post-2023 ($/MWh)
                                                                                                                  The European Union (EU) has been an early leader implementing an ETS

     New Offshore Wind                                                                                            and the US has launched a program on the West Coast. The EU ETS was

          Existing Nuclear
                                                                                                                  established over the past decade and currently covers nearly half of its
                                                                                                                  emissions. The price of carbon allowances in the EU ETS have increased
              Existing Coal
                                                                                                                  to new highs in early 2021 (exhibit 6; +700% over the last 5 years), which
     New Natural Gas CC
                                                                                                                  could further accelerate the transition away from carbon intensive
    New Near-Firm Solar
                                                                                                                  regions. In the US, the California Air Resources Board’s cap and trade
    New Near-Firm Wind
                                                                                                                  system could enable the state to make progress toward its 2045 net-zero
                              $0          $20          $40         $60          $80         $100        $120
                                                                                                                  emissions targets.
                                                         Storage Adder

Source: NextEra Energy Investor Day Presentation June 2019. Storage adder refers to additional costs associated   Exhibit 6: Spot Contract Prices for European Emissions Allowances and
with battery storage systems.                                                                                     European Emission Aviation Allowances

                                                                                                                                      € 45.00
While post-pandemic inflation poses a risk to these economics in the
                                                                                                                                      € 40.00
                                                                                                                  Cost/metric tonne

near-term, particularly the raw materials of key wind and solar projects,                                                             € 35.00
                                                                                                                                      € 30.00
we remain confident renewables will be cost competitive. We believe it
                                                                                                                                      € 25.00
would take sustained inflation for utility-scale markets to require a $1-2/                                                           € 20.00
                                                                                                                                      € 15.00
MWH increase of PPAs for these technologies.
                                                                                                                                      € 10.00
                                                                                                                                       € 5.00
In addition to economics, the Paris Climate accord has helped spur                                                                     € 0.00
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governments to increasingly implement mechanisms to accelerate the
adoption of renewables in recent years. Two such tools are carbon taxes
and emissions trading systems.                                                                                    Source: Bloomberg.

Carbon taxes are a cost levied by governments on each tonne of CO2                                                Finally, battery technology to harness the power generated by these
emitted. The taxes are intended to increase costs and raise prices on CO2                                         renewable sources at mass scale will be required to pump power into
intensive industries which should promote conserving energy, switching                                            the grid when demand exceeds supply. This should enable renewable
to lower-carbon fuels and adopting low tailpipe emitting vehicles. In the                                         energy to capture greater share of the overall power generation market
US—the second highest carbon emitting country in the world behind                                                 and serve as a base load power source—a common pushback on the
China—researchers at MIT have estimated a $50/tonne tax on CO2 with a                                             ultimate penetration rate of renewable capacity.
5% annual increase could drop carbon emissions 63% by 2050. However,

                                                Where We Are Finding Growth—The Global Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
Hydrocarbons will play a role in the energy economy until battery                At a more residential level, Generac, a holding in our Mid Cap Fund, is a
storage capability is widely available. However, breakthroughs in battery        provider of backup generators in the US with a dominant market position.
technology within the transportation sector (discussed further below)            While our core thesis is based on the company being in the early stages of a
leave us optimistic this capability will improve over time. In fact, there are   period of elevated growth as climate change leads to increased frequency
several large-scale battery energy storage systems being put into place          and severity of natural disasters—hurricanes, floods and wildfires—we
in parts of the US, notably, the Moss Landing Energy project in California.      believe its acquisitions and investments in the area of solar battery backup
                                                                                 systems represent a new profit-cycle driver. We believe Generac’s scale,
Where We Are Finding Growth in Renewable Energy                                  distribution network and differentiated go-to-market strategy will help it
We have held utilities company NextEra Energy (NEE) in our Global                gain a foothold in this industry.
Opportunities Fund since mid-2019. The company operates across two
                                                                                 Advance Drainage Systems, a manufacturer of water drainage structures
segments: Florida Power and Light (FPL), a regulated utility, and NextEra
                                                                                 and supplies across multiple construction-related end markets, is a
Energy Resources (NEER), one of the US’s largest developers and producers
                                                                                 holding in our Small Cap Fund. While not explicitly tied to renewable
of renewable power generation. While our thesis is underpinned by a stable
                                                                                 energy, we believe Advanced Drainage’s dominant market share and
and visible growth profile at FPL, the accelerating profit cycle is driven by
                                                                                 low-cost production within the plastic-pipe drainage market—60-70%
NEER. We believe NEER is well-positioned to be one of the leading providers
                                                                                 market share—enables the company to accelerate the trend away from
of sustainable power generation for the US utilities sector as it transitions
                                                                                 carbon-intensive concrete-based pipes (~65% of the overall market) in
toward a more environmentally friendly and sustainable power-generation
                                                                                 the drainage market. When compared to concrete-based pipes, plastic
fleet. NEER is one of the largest investors in US infrastructure and expects
                                                                                 drainage provides 3X faster installation times, 20% lower installation
to expand its renewable power-generation capacity by nearly 50% over
                                                                                 costs and have useful lives of ~100 years. Internally, 66% of the plastic
the next five years. The company’s growth profile is supported by a 15GW
                                                                                 feedstock utilized in Advanced Drainage’s products are derived from its
project backlog, long-term contracts with utilities counterparties, a solid
                                                                                 internal recycling operations, positioning the company as the 2nd largest
execution track record and access to low-cost capital. Approximately 88%
                                                                                 recycling firm in North America. We believe the company’s dominant
of NEER’s existing power generation is carbon free, and with utilities one of
                                                                                 market share and low-cost production, coupled with an industry-wide
the largest carbon-emitting sectors, NEER will not only provide a cheaper
                                                                                 material conversion story, position it well for a sustained profit cycle.
source of power to utilities, but it will also play a pivotal role in helping
customers meet their sustainability targets.                                     Declining Battery Costs and Rising Regulatory Pressures on
                                                                                 Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles Could Lead to
We have identified and invested in companies supplying the components            Increasing Adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)
these utilities companies are purchasing to develop their wind farms and
transition their power grids. Vestas Wind Systems, a holding in our Global       As numerous parts of the world have developed over the past couple

Opportunities and Global Discovery Funds, is the leading producer                hundred years, automobiles—most of which are powered by internal

and servicer of onshore wind turbines globally. We believe Vestas is             combustion engines—have become entrenched in how we live, work

particularly well-positioned given it is the low-cost producer and global        and go about our daily lives. In the US (before the pandemic), 87% of

market share leader.                                                             daily trips took place in personal vehicles and the average driver spent
                                                                                 55 minutes per day behind the wheel and covered over 10,000 miles
Shoals Technologies Group is a holding in our Small Cap Fund. The                per year. Unfortunately, the transportation sector is the second-largest
company is a global manufacturer of electrical balance of systems (EBOS)         contributor to global CO2 emissions (exhibit 7) and approximately 75% of
products for utility-scale solar energy projects. EBOS encompasses all the       these emissions come from road transportation.
necessary components to carry the electric current produced by solar
panels to an inverter, and ultimately to the power grid. Shoals’ core product,   Exhibit 7: 2016 Global GHG Emissions by Sector
                                                                                  Bunker Fuels 2%                                      Other Fuel Combustion 3%
Big Lead Assembly®, provides mission-critical electrification components
                                                                                                                                                       Waste 4%
                                                                                  Electricity & Heat 27%
which reduce the labor and raw materials costs to install EBOS systems                                                                               Industry 4%

by ~40% and ~20% respectively. These cost reductions can drive overall                                                                      Fugitive from energy
                                                                                                                                                   production 6%
project costs ~5% lower. We believe this franchise—~32% U.S. market share                                                                           Buildings 7%
and growing, patent protection on BLA® through 2030 and the lowest cost           Transport 14%                                                 Land-Use Change
                                                                                                                                                 and Forestry 9%
producer—is well positioned for a solid profit cycle ahead as the global                                                                          Manufacturing/
                                                                                 Agriculture 13%                                         Construction energy 11%
power grid transitions to renewable sources such as solar.
                                                                                 Source: ourworldindata.org (2016).

                                 Where We Are Finding Growth—The Global Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
Battery                 Powertrain           Vehicle            ICE medium
                                                                                                                                                                                              Battery                 Powertrain           Vehicle             ICE medium

With the number of cars on the road expected to double by 2040 (to                                                                                                                                                    Lithium-ion battery price outlook
                                                                                                                                                                              1,200                                   Lithium-ion battery price outlook
                                                                                                                                                                              1,200
over 2 billion), there is a strong sense of urgency to find an alternative to

                                                                                                                                                                      price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Observed prices

                                                                                                                                                                 packprice
ICE vehicles to stay on the 1.5°C warming scenario pathway. Rather than                                                                                                       1,000                                                          Observed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             18%       prices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 learning rate
                                                                                                                                                                              1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             18% learning rate

                                                                                                                                                             $/kWh)
                                                                                                                                                         batterypack
dramatically alter how we get around on a daily basis, BEVs are an

                                                                                                                                                        2020$/kWh)
                                                                                                                                                                                 800
                                                                                                                                                                                 800
environmentally friendly alternative. BEVs do not consume gasoline and

                                                                                                                                          Lithium-ionbattery
                                                                                                                                                                                 600

                                                                                                                                                  (real2020
have zero tailpipe emissions. Furthermore, as the power grid supplies                                                                                                            600                                     2024 implied        2030 implied
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2024$92/kWh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        price  implied       2030$58/kWh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            price  implied

                                                                                                                                        Lithium-ion
a higher portion of energy from renewable sources, the overall carbon                                                                                                                                                   price $92/kWh       price $58/kWh

                                                                                                                                                (real
                                                                                                                                                                                 400
                                                                                                                                                                                 400                                                                                   2035 implied
footprint of BEVs will move towards zero, while ICE vehicles will continue                                                                                                                                                                                             2035$45/kWh
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      price  implied
                                                                                                                                                                                 200                                                                                  price $45/kWh
                                                                                                                                                                                 200
to produce tailpipe emissions.
                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                                                                        0
BEVs are not a recent innovation, having been around since the 1800s,

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but only recently have they meaningfully closed the cost gap with ICE
                                                                                                                                         Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Lithium-ion Battery Price Outlook (2021).
vehicles. Lithium ion battery packs are the source of power for BEVs
and have historically made up a large portion of the cost. Luckily, as BEV                                                                                                                        U.S. annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain
                                                                                                                                                                20                              Global Passenger Vehicle Fleet Outlook by Drivetrain
                                                                                                                                                                1.6
volumes have ramped, manufacturing scale has been a key factor in the                                                                                                                                                                                                    Internal combustion
                                                                                                                                                                1.4                                                                                                       Battery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Fuel  cell electric
85% decline in the cost of battery packs over the past decade. That being                                                                                       15                                                                                                        Plug-in hybrid
                                                                                                                                                                1.2                                                                                                      Plug-in Hybrid

                                                                                                                                         Millions
said, battery packs still make up ~35%-40% of the total cost of BEVs today,                                                                                                                                                                                               Fuel cellElectric
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Battery

                                                                                                                                        Billions
                                                                                                                                                                1.0
                                                                                                                                                                10                                                                                                        Hybrid
and we believe several technological and process-related improvements                                                                                           0.8                                                                                                       Internal combustion
over the next couple of years could drive the overall cost significantly                                                                                        0.6
                                                                                                                                                                 5
                                                                                                                                                                0.4
lower (exhibit 8). This declining cost should enable BEVs to reach price
                                                                                                                                                                0.2
                                                                                                                                                                 0
parity with ICE vehicles by 2025 (exhibit 8), at which point we believe BEV
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2035

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2040
adoption will rapidly accelerate (exhibit 8).

Exhibit 8: Declining Battery Costs Should Drive Consumers to Increasingly                                                                Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Vehicle Sales by Drivetrain (2021).
Adopt BEVs
                                                                                                                                         From a regulatory standpoint, governments are increasingly supporting
                                                         U.S. medium segment vehicle price estimates
                        50
                                                                                                                                         BEVs and pressuring ICE vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs),
                                        48%
                        40
                                                                                                                                         making it costly for them to keep up with stricter emissions standards.
                                                      42%
                                                                    36%
                                                                                                                                         Seventeen countries have announced 100% zero-emission vehicle targets
Thousand 2016 $

                                                                             31%
                                                                                        27%
                        30                                                                                                               or the phase-out of ICE vehicles through 2050. In Europe, the Green Deal
                                                                                                      24%      21%        18%
                                                                                                                                         is expected to tighten emissions regulations to achieve net-zero emissions
                        20
                                                                                                                                         by 2050. In Asia, China is targeting 5 million BEVs sold in 2025 and has
                        10                                                                                                               announced a target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. In the US,
                                                                                                                                         President Joe Biden’s climate plan aims for all new vehicles sold by 2035
                                 0
                                                                                                                                         to be BEVs, and provides added consumer incentives via tax credits and
                                        2016

                                                      2018

                                                                    2020

                                                                             2022

                                                                                        2024

                                                                                                      2026

                                                                                                                2028

                                                                                                                          2030

                                                                                                                                         subsidies. California has recently passed legislation to ban the sale of ICE
                                               Battery              Powertrain          Vehicle              ICE medium
                                                                                                                                         vehicles by 2035—the first policy of its kind in the US. As more regulators
                                                                                                                                         get on board with supporting BEVs, ICE vehicle OEMs will likely experience
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Vehicle Price Estimates (2017).
                                                                    Lithium-ion battery price outlook                                    lower sales volumes and margin pressures through increased costs via
                                     1,200
                                                                                                                                         higher emissions and punitive taxes.
Lithium-ion battery pack price

                                                                                           Observed prices
                                     1,000
                                                                                           18% learning rate                             A robust charging infrastructure is another important consideration
      (real 2020 $/kWh)

                                      800                                                                                                for widespread BEV adoption, and several initiatives are in motion to
                                                                                                                                         build this out over the next decade. The number of EV-related charging
                                      600
                                                                       2024 implied       2030 implied                                   connections is expected to increase 10X (27% CAGR) by 2030 (exhibit 9),
                                                                      price $92/kWh      price $58/kWh
                                      400
                                                                                                                   2035 implied
                                                                                                                  price $45/kWh
                                      200

                                        0
                                             2010

                                                             2015

                                                                                 2020

                                                                                               2025

                                                                                                                2030

                                                                                                                                 2035

                                                                           Where We Are Finding Growth—The Global Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
                                                    U.S. annual passenger vehicle sales by drivetrain
                      20
which we believe will help reduce range anxiety. President Biden has set                       Where We Are Finding Growth in the Transportation
a goal of adding 500,000 electric charging stations over the next decade.                      Sector’s Transition to BEVs
Volkswagen’s Electrify America subsidiary has already committed and is                         Aptiv, a holding in our Global Opportunities and Mid Cap Funds, is a leading
currently building out its charging infrastructure, which is notably brand                     provider of safety, infotainment and electronic control components to the
agnostic. Electrify America aims to invest $2 billion in the US over the next                  automotive market. On the strength of its market-leading products, the
decade, adding charging stations across the country. Tesla is also ahead of                    company is capitalizing on accelerating uptake for its advanced driver
the game, with more than 11,000 superchargers in place around the globe.                       assistance systems (ADAS) and high-voltage electrification solutions to
                                                                                               take market share. On the strength of the secular trend toward electric
There are still meaningful charging infrastructure investments required,
                                                                                               and autonomous vehicles still ahead, we believe Aptiv is well-positioned
but we are encouraged by the progress and the rising interest among the
                                                                                               to expand margins and drive an accelerating profit cycle.
large auto OEMs to participate. Once in place, we believe the expanded
availability of charging stations will prompt more drivers to abandon
their ICE vehicles, and as the utility grid increasingly generates power
from renewable sources, these stations will help lower the transportation
sector’s overall carbon footprint.

Exhibit 9: BEV ChargePoints are Expected to Grow 10X by 2030

                                     Public charging stations by region (fast and slow)
                               12
Charging Stations (Millions)

                               10

                                8

                                6

                                4

                                2

                                0
                                    2010
                                    2011
                                    2012
                                    2013
                                    2014
                                    2015
                                    2016
                                    2017
                                    2018
                                    2019
                                    2020
                                    2021
                                    2022
                                    2023
                                    2024
                                    2025
                                    2026
                                    2027
                                    2028
                                    2029
                                    2030

                                    NAFTA        Europe         China         RoW

Sources: IEA, Exane BNP Paribas estimates.

Finally, widespread BEV adoption is not possible without buy in from
the large auto OEMs. We have been encouraged by recent evidence of
a mindset shift among the auto OEMs to increasingly manufacture BEVs.
Previously, they believed the transition would be subtle—ICE vehicles to
mild hybrids, mild hybrids to hybrids, hybrids to BEVs. However, as Tesla
has demonstrated an ability to make BEVs profitable and realize it is not
cost-effective to pour capital into multiple engine types, the other auto
OEMs have concluded they need to jump the gap. A notable example
is commitments recently made by one of the world’s largest auto
manufacturers, General Motors (GM). The company plans to invest an
additional $7 billion ($27 billion total) to fund BEV development, launch 30
new models by 2025 and only sell zero-emission vehicles by 2035.

                                                     Where We Are Finding Growth—The Global Transition to a Sustainable Energy Economy
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be obtained by calling 800.344.1770. Read carefully before investing.
Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. International investments involve special risks, including currency fluctuation, lower liquidity, different accounting methods and economic and political systems, and
higher transaction costs. These risks typically are greater in emerging markets. Securities of small- and medium-sized companies tend to have a shorter history of operations, be more volatile and less liquid and may have
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there is no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in the discussion. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any investment service,
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