Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth

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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
Investment Review
January 2020
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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
IN THIS EDITION...

                  Contents
Introduction

                                    04
Market Developments

                                     06
What we think and what
we have done

                                       12
Information Brief:
ESG policy and practise

                                      14

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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
INTRODUCTION

Introduction
2020 Vision
It is that time of the year again when economists, market strategists and a multitude of amateur Nostradamus’ look
into the future and attempt to predict what will happen over the course of the next 12 months. Fact is though, as the
saying goes, ‘predictions are never easy, especially if they are about the future’. Or in the words of accidental new-age
philosopher Forrest Gump ‘life is like a box of chocolates; you never know what you’re gonna get’.

And as we wave good-bye to the 2010s and welcome in the roaring 20s, the prediction making industry has gone into
overdrive with a whole new decade to forecast – and likely get wrong. Learned soothsayers in the past have dismissed
both cars and electricity as ‘fads’ and the telephone as a ‘toy’. As recently as 2007, the CEO of Microsoft Steve Ballmer was
equally dismissive of the smart phone, ‘there is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.
No chance.’

As we write, just a few days into the new year and new decade, the US assassination of Iran’s top general has seen fears
of a Middle East conflagration spike sharply higher, stock markets fall and forecasters question their market predictions
even before the ink has dried on their most recent notes. Less ‘roaring’, potentially more ‘warring’!

Acknowledging the inescapable fact that we cannot accurately predict the future, we strongly advocate broadly
diversified portfolios by both asset class (equities, bonds, property etc) and geography where we attempt to prudently
build an innings over time rather than wildly swing the bat in the hope of a quick score. Our aim is for our funds to
consistently participate in good markets when prices are rising and provide protection in bad markets when prices are
falling, and by doing so deliver strong returns over the long-term to our clients.

The year just finished was indeed a good one, with asset classes of all colours firing on all cylinders. Typically, markets will
favour either strong equity returns or solid bond returns depending on whether sentiment is ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’. But 2019
saw strong returns from both equities and bonds, with our property and alternative trading strategy funds also performing
admirably. We are indebted to our fund manager partners for their hard work over the year, helping all our portfolios to
report healthy returns.

A harsh truth about investment though is that you cannot invest in yesterday’s performance; the success or otherwise of
funds put to work today will depend on what happens tomorrow. Critically therefore, there is no room for complacency and
our responsibility here at Lumin Wealth is to ensure that our portfolios are capable of performing as well in the future as
they have in the past.

Complacency though is an all too often seen investment foible and we are concerned that as we enter 2020, markets
generally are looking rather too unworried. The most commonly used measure of market complacency, the VIX index or
fear gauge, has fallen to historically low levels and the CNN Fear and Greed index (below) is pushing towards maximum
greed on the dial. Compare and contrast with the situation a year ago when the dial was on extreme fear and where
therefore in simple probability terms, the balance of risks to market expectations would have been to the upside.

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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
INTRODUCTION

The sage words of the world’s most successful fund manager Warren Buffett spring to mind – “be fearful when others are
greedy and greedy when others are fearful”. Around a quarter of his fund is currently in cash!

How have we arrived at these extreme levels of greed? A year ago, market sentiment reflected fears that global central
banks led by the US Federal Reserve (FED) had moved prematurely to remove easy monetary policy (primarily low interest
rates), putting at risk anaemic economic growth and threatening to turn a global manufacturing slowdown into a fully-
fledged recession.

Riding swiftly to the rescue though, the FED, followed in due course by the European Central Bank and others, performed
a 180-degree monetary policy U-turn that in the nick of time averted the manufacturing slowdown spreading irretrievably
to services. With disaster avoided and a more stable platform going into year end, positive developments in December in
two of the market’s major concerns – the US/China trade dispute and Brexit – allowed markets to end on a high.

At the risk of appearing a perennial party pooper, we caution against getting too excited on either of these fronts (and
explain why in the next section) but point instead to many fundamental characteristics of financial markets currently that
give us continued cause for concern. We have just enjoyed a decade without a global recession – a rare phenomenon – and
begin the next one with alarmingly high levels of debt at both the country and corporate level, with politics and geopolitics
in a state of worrying uncertainty and with the market affording valuations to the two principal asset classes of equities
and bonds that for the most part look stretched or downright expensive in the case of the mighty Wall Street.

Notwithstanding these elemental concerns, markets will do what they do and prices will rise and fall with the cycle. The
history of financial markets is that investors will do fine over the long-term if they remain disciplined about the prices they
pay and prioritise ‘time in’ over ‘timing’ markets. Fidelity International research shows that £1,000 invested in the FTSE All-
Share at the start of this century will have grown to £2,734 by the end of last year. Investors moving in and out who then
may have missed the 20 best days during that 20-year period, would have seen a return of just £977. Even if those ‘timers’
only missed the 10 best days, their return would have fallen to £1,479, a little over half that would have been received if
they had stayed fully invested. Compelling numbers indeed.

Lumin Wealth – ESG policy and practise
The fundamentals do not change but favoured themes do and we venture daringly that ‘this time it is indeed different’
when it comes to the critically important subject of ethical/responsible (or ESG for short) investing. It is a massive growth
area, moving rapidly from the periphery to the mainstream, and in a dedicated section at the back of this review we want
to share with you Lumin Wealth’s ESG policy and practise and detail the work undertaken recently to measure how our
model portfolios comply with current standards.

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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

As always, a continuous stream of background ‘noise’ for investors to cut through, but the important market-moving issues
limited to three critical areas: central bank liquidity, trade tensions and in the UK, politics. Positively received outcomes in
the latter two late in the period allowed markets to push ahead and end the year on a high. We look at developments in each
before considering where this leaves us in terms of valuation and finish with a few thoughts on the energy sector.

Central bank liquidity
Efforts by global central banks in 2018 to normalise monetary policy and start to lift interest rates from their emergency
lows were spectacularly reversed in 2019. From a position in the autumn of 2018 where the consensus forecast three
further rate hikes from the FED in 2019, the outcome was the total opposite with three rate cuts. FED chairman Powell
announced in November that rates were on hold absent a material deterioration in the economy.

A sharp fall on Wall Street in the final quarter of 2018 and an avalanche of aggressively critical tweets from President
Trump, prompted the exercise of the ‘Powell put’, in the same way we have experienced the Bernanke and Yellen ‘puts’
previously, i.e. big and fast moves by successive FED chairmen in the face of falling investor confidence to cut rates,
stimulate the economy, and limit the damage on Wall Street.

The effect of this is for successive rate cycles since the 1980’s to start and finish at lower levels – best illustrated in the
chart below. It is a phenomenon that applies equally to the UK rate cycle and highlights the simple point that the FED and
the Bank of England are limited in terms what can be done with rate cuts alone in the next recession. Unless of course
rates move into negative territory like in Japan and Europe, an idea so far dismissed by the FED as unlikely.

The FED are also limited in their ability to boost fiscal stimulus because it is already running a recession-level deficit. US
Gross National Debt exploded by more than $1.3trn in 2019, ending the year at over S23trn. It is a gargantuan figure that has
grown steadily over decades but accelerated under Obama and is rising exponentially under Trump – see following chart.
This at a time when the economy is growing (albeit slowly) and so should be a ‘time to repair the roof when the sun is shining’
according to JFK. The fear is that if it is growing at this pace at a time of growth, how fast will it grow in a recession?

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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

More rate cuts were made by the 10 biggest central banks in 2019 than in any other year since the global financial crisis
(GFC). This has been supplemented by moves to crank up the printing presses again and restart quantitative easing (QE)
– also known as money printing – an experimental and controversial policy tool designed to boost the economy by aiding
bank lending. The FED, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are expected to buy almost £500bn of debt this year and
nearly £1trn by the end of 2021. The ‘over-extended state of central bank balance sheets’ is the key source of vulnerability
when predicting the next crisis according to US economist Stephen Roach.

The sudden injection of liquidity into the market by the FED in September (the black bar above) was forced upon them
after a mini-crisis mid-month that saw the overnight funding rate spike from 2% to 10%. The underlying issue was a
systemic shortage of money, much to the apparent surprise of officials who wrongly believed there was an ample pool of
reserves to keep the banking system oiled. There are specific and complex technical issues here but in simple terms and
rather worryingly, it shows how markets have become dangerously addicted to central bank intervention and in danger of
falling over as soon as that injection of capital is removed.

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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

As a result of rate cuts and further QE, the cost of borrowing has remained at historically low levels. We have talked before
how this encourages riskier behaviour amongst borrowers and fails to clear zombie companies who otherwise would have
failed and disappeared from the financial system.

It has led to an explosion in corporate debt with more than half the $4.8trn of this labelled investment grade (the highest
quality/less risky) rated BBB or lower, a fivefold increase since 2008 and just one rating downgrade above ‘junk’ status.
The US Office of Financial Research suggests a one-point rise in borrowing costs would lead to a $1.4trn decline in value.
A slight uptick in inflation could bring this about in an instant. Amongst many areas of concern in a market ten years into
recovery and so arguably overdue a correction, it is the one we worry about most.

Trade tensions
Wax and waning developments on the trade dispute front between the US and China were a constant area of investor focus in
2019. Markets received a late fillip in mid-December when President Trump announced in typical fanfare a limited ‘phase one’
trade agreement with Beijing, rolling back some existing tariffs and cancelling new levies set to take effect. Signing of that deal is
due to take place imminently although there is some concern that details of the deal are still being reviewed by both sides.

The deal covers only a limited number of US complaints with China’s trade practises, leaving untouched such fundamental
issues as subsidies and Chinese pressure on American firms to share technology. There remains therefore, considerable
scepticism that discussion on phase 2 and 3 will lead anywhere. The good news for investors is that the deal averted a new
round of tariffs that could have tipped the US and global economy into recession. The bad news is that it represents what
appears just a temporary truce amid a much larger strategic rivalry.

When Trump kicked off the trade dispute in March 2018, he announced that ‘trade wars are good, and easy to win’. This has
not proved the case. Beijing has not rolled over and acquiesced as hoped; the economy has clearly taken a hit, but the full
force of tariffs curbed as production is channelled through Vietnam and other neighbourly conduits. As we enter 2020, the
ball is on the other foot with China knowing that the President cannot withstand a perpetual trade war because he faces
defeat in the November elections if the US economy buckles, dragging Wall St down.

The damage has been done and is most clearly visible in the decline in international trade, the chart below from DHL
indicating the impact into year end. The effect is to reverse the globalization process that has been such a strong factor
contributing to economic growth worldwide since the 1980’s.

Notwithstanding the trade picture, the latest survey data on global manufacturing (see following chart) points to an uptick
late last year in several key international markets, lending credence to the idea of a potential bottoming in global growth.
It would appear that trade war uncertainty was successfully offset by the concerted central bank action (described above)
to cut rates and pump liquidity back into the financial system.
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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

The apparent turn in the data was particularly notable in the eurozone (Germany and France) and emerging markets - see
charts below, highlighting that improving business sentiment was more marked in regions generally susceptible to trade
tensions and external growth conditions.

The net effect of all this is to make us slightly more comfortable on Europe, whilst still falling short of being outright
positive, and reinforces our more constructive view on emerging markets. Our attraction to the former is still tempered by
political instability and by lingering concerns about a precariously interwoven banking industry. The attraction of the latter
built on underperformance and a depressed valuation that affords little to the long-term structural growth story that the
region offers.

Politics
As we all know painfully too well, UK headlines ever since the referendum in 2016 have been dominated by Brexit. Chaos
at the centre of government and never-ending uncertainly have provided ample excuse for international investors to shun
the UK, contributing to the marked underperformance of UK equities during the period: the main FTSE100 index rising 17%
versus over 70% for the FTSE All-world.

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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

It is understandable therefore that the big Tory majority in the December election - removing the fear that a Labour
victory or a hung, coalition government would lead to continuing Brexit dither and delay - was initially received so well. The
celebrations were short-lived however, with the announcement just a few days later of a bill to rule out an extension to the
transition period, reintroducing the unwelcome spectre of a ‘no-deal’ exit.

News here served as an abrupt reminder that whilst more extreme political and immediate uncertainty had been removed,
victory for Boris Johnson was but the first step on a long and difficult Brexit journey – to quote the new PM’s hero Winston
Churchill, ‘this is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the end, this is just perhaps the end of the beginning.’

Notwithstanding the caveats, the election result has reinforced our constructive view of the UK equity market, certainly
relative to more expensive areas like the US. Commentators have referred to both a ‘Boris bounce’ and the removal of
the ‘Corbyn discount’ (applied most obviously to those industries threatened by renationalisation). Both factors add at
the margin to a market that has been unloved (shunned by international investors), has under-performed and is relatively
undervalued (the FTSE100 yielding c.3x the S&P500).

Elsewhere within politics, governments in both Germany and Spain have seen recent changes in their constitution
that have shifted them a little to a more populist left. However, the big market-moving political event of this year is
undoubtedly the US Presidential election in November. Expect plenty of pump priming by the Trump administration in
advance: they will try their hardest to see Wall Street stay strong. Of the 23 election years since 1928, only four have seen a
negative return on the S&P500.

Valuation
As observed in the introduction, 2019 proved a vintage year for investors with both the two main asset classes performing
well. Within equities, all areas delivered strong returns but it was Wall Street and in particular, the fabled FAANGs
(Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) that really set the pace – mirroring the experience of 2017.

The top-ranking return on Wall Street over the year – up 29% in US$ terms – is all the more remarkable because it has
come against a backdrop of flat earnings growth - the US has effectively suffered an earnings recession since 2018.
Instead, it has been a big beneficiary of the FED’s easy monetary policy and three interest rate cuts. The effect of price
escalation on zero earnings growth is to see a spike in the valuation, the forward multiple of price/earnings (the most
common valuation method) rising from c.14 to 19 times, over a third higher. The next chart shows all the S&P 500 returns
from sentiment driven multiple expansion rather than fundamental earnings growth.

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Investment Review January 2020 - Lumin Wealth
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

An iron law of investment, supported by evidence gathered over the history of financial markets, is that the higher the
price an investor pays for an expected stream of cash flows today, the lower the return that investor should expect over the
long-term. On this basis, forecasts of long-term returns on Wall Street look decidedly poor, the highly regarded GMO 7-year
asset class forecast suggesting a negative 4.5% annual real return from here.

Earnings growth is typically correlated to economic growth. Clouding this relationship in the US however is the fact that
corporate profit margins remain close to peak levels. Traditionally this ratio has been a reliable mean-reverter, centring
around a long-term average 6 to 7%. Having reached a high of 12% in 2018, it has fallen modestly since but can conceivably
fall considerably further, as costs rise and workers demand a greater share of the pie. This together with fiscal (tax cut
related) tailwinds of the last two years forecast to turn into a headwind in 2020 means earnings growth in the US may prove
for the second year in a row hard to come by.

We remain fundamentally cautious on prospects for Wall Street from here. We readily acknowledge though that this
position is not new: we have been cautious for a while and yet Wall Street keeps on rising and outperforming other equity
markets. With hindsight, we would have acted differently but hindsight investing is not an option. Looking forward, all we
have for certain is todays valuation and todays valuation looks excessively high.

Oil
We finish with just a few lines on the oil price. It is an area worthy of debate because of all the left-field events that could
feasibly upset the apple-cart and bring to an abrupt end the decade-plus long economic and market recovery since the global
financial crisis in 2008/9, a spike in the oil price and the feed through into inflation and global growth could be the one.

Just as the bombing of a tanker in the Straits of Hormuz and the shelling of the world’s largest refinery in Saudi Arabia
caused only temporary disruption, so too the recent US assassination of Iran’s military leader in the gulf. Thus far,
retaliation has been modest and the oil price has pretty much settled down from where it came.

Away from the headlines though, OPEC and Russia are trimming quotas and have proved (unusually) disciplined in
observing prior agreements. The big swing producer is arguably no longer Saudi but onshore US: it has accounted for all
the growth in global oil production over the last decade. Despite this growth, industry economic viability is poor: it is cash-
flow negative and is kept alive only by the availability of cheap debt. The number of new wells is in decline at the same time
as the legacy decline rate has risen to 95%, i.e. 95% of all gross production brought on by new wells is to offset losses from
legacy wells declining, pointing to a further deterioration in the economics of drilling.

The energy sector was the weakest performer of 2019. This reflects the shorter-term impact of falling earnings, reflecting
in turn a lower average oil price in 2018. But it is doubtless also a result of a longer-term issue; a rapidly growing investor
base that in response to climate-change concerns, looks to reduce their exposure to the fossil-fuel industry. We share
these concerns but note that these companies are also the biggest investors in clean energy.

Strategically, the sector is attractive as a hedge against inflation and tactically, earnings are forecast to rise this year, reflecting
now a higher average oil price during 2019. Given the evident pros and cons, we keep our natural resources exposure under review.

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ASSET CLASS VIEWS

Equities
WHAT WE THINK                                                  WHAT WE HAVE DONE
We are tempted here simply to copy and paste our thoughts      We continually monitor the performance of all our funds.
of three months ago. The background is the same only           We are pleased to report that all of the equity funds
more so. Back then we noted that global equity markets         have performed broadly in-line with how we would have
had performed well despite significant macroeconomic           expected them to over recent periods; some a little better,
and political headwinds. This trend continued and indeed       some a little worse.
accelerated in the final quarter, led once again by Wall
Street. We said that the latter’s performance was all the      The effect of our quarterly portfolio rebalance is to take
more remarkable because it was delivered in the face of        the top of those that have done exceptionally well and add
two quarters of flat earnings. Well, we have now had three     a little to those that have fared less well – selling high and
quarters of flat earnings and Wall Street has risen higher     buying low. Given that we are happy with individual fund
still.                                                         performance, we do not propose to change any positions
                                                               this quarter over and above that achieved in the rebalance.
On a host of measures, US equities are now as expensive
as they have ever been. This coincides with investor
sentiment at historic highs and volatility at cycle lows
(indicating a high degree of investor complacency).

The US is critical because it is by far and away the largest
equity market and tends to set the agenda for what
happens elsewhere - “when America sneezes, the world
catches a cold”. We believe there is better value in the
UK and in Emerging Markets, but when looking at a global
equity index, the two largest US companies (Apple and
Microsoft) have a higher weighting than the entire UK stock
market.

To repeat what we said In the last quarterly, our cautious
view of the dominant US market means that we end up with
a modestly underweight position to equities overall. That
remains the case.

Please note: some platforms restrict the use of Investment Trusts and Exchange Traded Funds and here we substitute
comparable equivalents.

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ASSET CLASS VIEWS

Fixed Interest, Property, Alternative Trading Strategies
WHAT WE THINK                                                        WHAT WE HAVE DONE
Here also our view of all three of these asset classes is            As we say above, we are happy that our fixed-interest
little changed on where we were three months ago. Bond               managers broadly share our cautious views. We are
markets generally have performed well over the year, with            therefore content to remain with the three of them;
the area that we worry about most - the US high-yield                Jupiter, Artemis and Close. The latter is a relatively new
corporate bond market – kicking on further in the final              addition to portfolios and holdings are smaller. They have
quarter. We are happy to see that all three of the managers          had a good year and have fully delivered on the assurances
who look after our fixed interest funds share our cautious           made when we first invested. We have therefore moved to
view and are underweight this area of the market.                    equalise our positions in the three by adding to Close and
                                                                     funding this by trimming the other two.
In some respects, it was a year of two-halves for the
fixed-interest market. As investors grew more concerned              Within the ATS space, the JPM Global Core Real Assets
about the global manufacturing slowdown turning into                 (JARA) fund is also a relatively new position and so holdings
recession, prices rose in the safest area of the market,             are similarly small. We are keen to steadily add to the
namely government bonds like US treasuries and UK gilts.             position and have chosen to fund this within the asset
This trend peaked in August with c40% of the world’s                 class by modestly trimming our holdings in the Legg Mason
government bonds carrying a negative yield - investors               Macro Opportunities fund. The team here have had an
paying for the privilege of holding these instruments rather         excellent year and delivered very strong returns. We are
than being paid for doing so. As concerted global central            conscious though that whilst long-term performance has
bank intervention kicked-in to rescue the situation, prices          been very good, the fund can be quite volatile with periods
fell from their highs, but still clocked-up creditable returns       of strong performance often followed relatively quickly
for the year as a whole.                                             by periods of poor performance. We are taking profits
                                                                     therefore, rather than exiting altogether.
Strong returns were also seen from the property and
alternative trading strategy asset classes. We are gratified
that over recent periods, we have moved to ensure that
where we can*, most of our property exposure is via
closed-end trusts rather than open-ended investment
funds (OEICs). The inherent problem with the latter is that
they offer instant liquidity to investors whilst investing in
totally illiquid assets, i.e. big office blocks, retail parks etc.

If there is a rush of investors selling property trusts, then
the price adjusts accordingly and the managers are not
forced into selling the underlying assets. In contrast, if
there is a rush of investors selling property OEICs then the
managers quickly become forced sellers of property to
meet those redemptions. This happened in early December
to the huge M&G Property fund which had to be ‘gated’,
meaning that investors were unable to take their money
out. This is the same experience investors had with the
Woodford funds and for the same reason, i.e. illiquid (not
easily tradable) underlying assets.

[* Not all of our platforms support trusts. Where this is the
case, we have opted for large, broadly geographical spread
funds that because of their rich diversity are highly unlikely
to suffer liquidity issues.]

Please note: some platforms restrict the use of Investment Trusts and Exchange Traded Funds and here we
substitute comparable equivalents.

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INFORMATION BRIEF

Lumin Wealth - ESG policy and practise
In this document, we outline how Lumin Wealth approaches the critically important subject of ethical investing. We
will also share with you what steps we have taken recently to measure how our 5 model portfolios comply with current
common standards.

As a first step, it is important to differentiate between the principle forms of ethical investing.

•       ESG – Environmental, Social and Governance refers to the three central factors in measuring sustainability and
        ethical impact of an investment in a company or business – see pictorial below.

•       SRI – Socially Responsible Investing considers ESG criteria to generate long term financial returns and a positive
        societal impact. Positive and negative screens are placed on investment decisions. Sustainable investing also
        falls under this category (some define SRI as Sustainable, Responsible and Impact Investing).

•       Impact Investing means the investments must have a positive impact in some way. The objective is to help
        a business to accomplish specific goals beneficial to society or the environment, regardless of whether success
        is guaranteed. The aim is to address the world’s most pressing challenges.

Lumin Wealth focuses on the first of these; we invest in funds/trusts with good ESG practises. It is for the funds
themselves to engage in impact investing, focusing on the products and services that individual companies supply.

                                                         Source: Barclays

Studies show that the environment is considered the most important of the three by asset owners, governance the
most important by asset managers.

Purpose - why invest in funds/trusts with good ESG practises?
•       Because all three are critically important areas and represent values that Lumin Wealth strongly support. In
        order for us to be recognised as good corporate citizens, we must evidence strong ethical standards in our
        investing activities. And in order to do this, we must ensure that all the funds/trusts that we invest in have
        equally strong ethical credentials.

•       Because there is a strong performance logic to be invested in areas where hard or soft ESG related targets are
        only going to increase over time, particularly in relation to the environment and climate change. Amongst the
        investment winners of tomorrow will likely be those companies who offer innovative solutions in these areas and
        those who will benefit from legislation driven demand.

•       Because of the irrefutable fact that ESG policy is moving from the periphery to the mainstream and is widely
        forecast to be fully incorporated into all investment funds and portfolios within a few years. As an innovative
        company, Lumin Wealth intends to be at the vanguard of this development.

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INFORMATION BRIEF

ESG practise - current shortcomings

  •       A robust and functioning ESG policy is critically important when promoting better business behaviours. But,
          whilst ESG policy is moving to the mainstream, the science of measuring ESG practise is still in its infancy.

  •       There are currently some 125 different research firms that provide data measuring a company’s ESG credentials.
          Unhelpfully though, the definitions they apply vary materially, giving rise to some perverse outcomes. Take for
          example Tesla, the US electric car and renewable energy company, where two of the largest providers of ESG
          data give an environmental score at opposite ends of the scale, largely it seems because of a lack of company
          disclosure.

  •       No doubt over time, the world will move to common standards in terms of the measurement and interpretation
          of ESG data, but for the moment, the lack of universally accepted clear definitions, allows a degree of
          ‘greenwashing’ whereby companies make misleading claims about products and practise in order to appear more
          environmentally friendly than they truly are.

  •       The first ‘ethical funds’ launched in the 1990’s and today around a quarter of the £7.7 trn of assets managed
          by the industry are ‘subject to a responsible investment approach’ according to the Investment Association.
          But the FCA, the City regulator, only recently acknowledged ‘there are currently no universally agreed common,
          minimum standards and guiding principles for measuring the performance and impact of green finance
          products.’

  •       Whatever the current shortcomings, ‘sustainability’ is fundamentally a shared goal for investors and
          companies alike, the sustainability of the business model being inextricably linked to environmental and social
          sustainability. If companies impose costs on society and the environment, it is likely that such activity will simply
          be regulated out of existence.

  Lumin Wealth ESG questionnaire
  To understand where our fund managers currently stand in terms of ESG policy and practice, we sent to all of them in
  December our inaugural ‘Lumin Wealth ESG Survey’. This a 14-point questionnaire that combines a mix of yes/no or
  numerical questions with enquiries that require more considered and detailed answers.

  The results are all in and we are now in the process of collating responses and completing a scorecard. We aim to be
  able to share the results with all our clients within the next quarter, at which point we will be pleased to receive client
  feedback as to the quality and value of the information gathered. As this is our first ESG survey, we would then look to
  refine and improve the next questionnaire.

                                                                                                                            15
St Albans                London                     This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation
                                                    for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
First Floor              Central Court              The views and strategies described may not be suitable
                                                    for all investors. This material has been prepared for
No.5 Sandridge Park      25 Southampton Buildings   informational purposes only, and is not intended to
Porters Wood             London, WC2A 1AL           provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting,
                                                    legal or tax advice. We believe the information provided
St Albans
                         0203 709 9300              here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy
Herts, AL3 6PH                                      or completeness. Opinions and estimates offered
                                                    constitute our judgement and are subject to change
01727 893333                                        with-out notice. Past performance does not guarantee
                                                    future results. Any forecasts contained herein are for
                                                    illustrative purposes only and not to be relied upon as
                                                    advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

                                                    Lumin Wealth Management Ltd is authorised and
info@luminwealth.co.uk                              regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
www.luminwealth.co.uk                               FCA No. 580185

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