Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA

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Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
Issues to be considered for strategic
                            adaptation to climate evolution
                     Moselle, Germany           Wachau, Austria                             Napa, California

     Veneto, Italy                                                                  Champagne, France
                                           Banyuls, France

                                                                                        Claire Valley, Australia
Alto Adige, Italy

                                        Douro Valley, Portugal

  HansHans     Hans
           R. Schultz
       R. Schultz          R. Schultz Hochschule Geisenheim University
                                                                  Hans R. Schultz                       11.10.2011
                                                                                                              18.3.2010
Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution

    1. Where is the water going?
    2. Variability and continuity
    3. soils: the unknown half

                     Hans R. Schultz
Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution

    1. Where is the water going?
    2. Variability and continuity
    3. soils: the unknown half

                     Hans R. Schultz
Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution

    1. Where is the water going?
    2. Variability and continuity
    3. soils: the unknown half

                     Hans R. Schultz
Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution

    1. Where is the water going?
    2. Variability and continuity
    3. soils: the unknown half

                     Hans R. Schultz
Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
1. Is it really getting dryer?
2. The question of precipitation and evaporation
   (theory and facts)

                    Hans R. Schultz
Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
summer             winter
                                          The Budyko curve
                             Water limited                Energy
                                                          limited
                                                             Q/ETp
                             Ea/ETp
                                      1

                                                             Ea/ETp
P  = precipitation,                0
ETp= potential evapotranspiration      0                1
Ea = actual evapotranspiration                                         P could decrease
Q  = runoff                                         P/ETp              and/or ETp could
                          P could increase                             increase
                          and/or ETp could
                          decrease
Adapted from Farquhar and Roderick (2007) Water and the environment, Pontifical Academy of
                             Science, Scripta Varia, Vatican City
Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
Dryness indices are only rough indicators of
current and past vulnerability

Santos et al. (2012) Macroclimate and viticultural zoning in Europe. Clim.Res. 51: 89-103
Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
Dryness indices are only rough indicators of
   current and past vulnerability

Cook and Wolkovich (2016) Nature,
March 21 2016
Problematic: Palmer drought index
Thornthwaite ETo calculation
                                  Santos et al. (2012) Macroclimate and viticultural zoning in
                                  Europe. Clim.Res. 51: 89-103
Issues to be considered for strategic adaptation to climate evolution - INRA
The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship tells us, a
1°K (or 1°C) warming at 15 °C means about a
7% increase in evaporation but it also means a
1-2% increase in precipitation!

The average precipitable water column on earth is
about 28.5mm (Farquhar and Roderick 2007) which
would mean that 1° C warming would increase
evaporation by only roughly 2mm! (All other things
being equal). Therefore regional effects need to be
studied carefully.

                     Hans R. Schultz
Warming has occurred and continues to do
so – what are the effects on P and ETp?
                                                               Geisenheim, Germany                 10-year running mean values
                                                               Adelaide Hills (MB), Australia
                                                19             Mount Barker, WA, Australia                                    Mount   Barker (WA)
                                                               Adelaide Hills, Lenswood, Australia
   Mean temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) (°C)

                                                               Oxford, England
                                                18                                                                         Adelaide Hills

                                                17

                                                16                                                                         Geisenheim

                                                15
                                                                                                                           Oxford
                                                14

                                                13

                                                12
                                                 1880      1900      1920      1940    1960 1980 2000
                                                                                   Year Data: Meteorological office, UK
                                                                                        Deutscher Wetterdienst
                                             Hans R. Schultz                            Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology
What is happening in water limited areas, what
happens in enery limited areas
What is happening in energy limited parts of the
season, and what in water limited parts of the
season

                    Hans R. Schultz
Observations and simulations (hydrological
summer)
                                                                                                             precip. Oakville observed
                                                                    May-October                              ETp Oakville (Napa) 38,3° N, 122,2° W obs.
                                                                                                             ETp Avignon 43,9° N, 4,9° E obs.
                                                   1000                                                                                        1000
                                                                                                             precip. Avignon observed
                                                                  ETp Geisenheim 50° N, 7,9° E obs.
                                                   900                                                                                         900
        potential Evapo-transpiration (ETp) (mm)

                                                                  precip. obs.
                                                                  ETp simulated
                                                   800            precip. simulated                                                   ETp      800

                                                   700                                                                  ETp                    700
                    precipitation (mm)

                                                   600                                                                                         600

                                                   500                    ETp                                                                  500

                                                   400                                                                                         400

                                                   300                                                              P                          300

                                                   200
                                                                         P                                                                     200
                                                                                                                               P
                                                   100                                                                                         100

                                                     0                                                                                         0
                                                          1960   1980   2000        2020   2040   1970     1980    1990       2000     2010
                                                                             Year                                    Year
                                                                                                         French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA
                                                                                                         German data: Deutscher Wetterdienst
                                                                                                         US data: IPM set, Univ. of Calif. Davis
Hans R. Schultz
Observations and simulations (hydrological winter)
                                                                                                   ETp Oakville (Napa) 38,3° N, 122,2° W obs.
                                                                                                   precipitation Oakville observed
                                                            November-April                         ETp Avignon 43,9° N, 4,9° E obs.
                                                                                                   precipitation Avignon observed
                                               900                                                                                     900
    potential Evapo-transpiration (ETp) (mm)

                                                            ETp Geisenheim 50° N, 7,9° E obs.
                                               800          ETp Geisenheim simulated                                                  800
                                                            precipitation Geisenheim obs.
                                                            precipitation Geisenheim simulated
                                               700                                                                                    700
                precipitation (mm)

                                               600                                                                                    600   Oakville P
                                               400                                                                                    400
                                                                                                                                            and ETp
                                                                                                                                            Avignon P
                                               350                                                                                    350

                                               300                                                                                    300

                                                               P
                                               250                                                                  Avignon ETp       250
                                                                                                                                                P line
                                               200                                                                                    200
                                                                     ETp
                                                     1960   1980    2000      2020   2040        1980     1990      2000      2010
                                                                       Year                                  Year
                                                                                                    French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA
                                                                                                    German data: Deutscher Wetterdienst
  Hans R. Schultz
                                                                                                    US data: IPM set, Univ. of Calif. Davis
In the warm regions (esp. US and Australia no change in ETp)
(in southern France, small to no change during the past 20
years)
In China annual ETp has decreased 1-3% since 1966 (Liu et al.
2014, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18, 2803-2813) and run-off
increased by 1-6% (Budyko curve moves to energy limited)!
In South Africa ETp (pan evaporation) in the Cape Floristic
regions has declined substantially between 1974 and 2005 on
16 of 20 climate stations (Hoffmann et al. 2011 Pan
evaporation and wind run decline in the Cape Floristic region.
Climate Change 109:437-452)
What are the reasons?
                           Hans R. Schultz
Observations cool areas (a priori energy limited)

                                                        November-April                                             May-October
                                                  400                        ETp Geisenheim 50° N, 7,9° E (111m)                 700
       potential Evapo-transpiration (ETp) (mm)

                                                                             precipitation Geisenheim
                                                                             ETp Dijon 47,2° N, 5,1° E (211m)        Dijon ETp
                                                  375                                                                            650
                                                                             precipitation Dijon
                                                  350                                                                            600
                   precipitation (mm)

                                                  325
                                                                                                                        Geisenheim
                                                                                                                               550 ETp

                                                  300                                                                            500
                                                  275                                                                            450
                                                  250
                                                                                                                                 400
                                                  225
                                                                                                                                 350
                                                  200
                                                                                                                                 300
                                                  175       Geisenheim ETp                                                       250
                                                  150                        Dijon ETp
                                                                                                                                 200
                                                        1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010     1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
                                                                    Year                                   Year
                                                                                            French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA
Hans R. Schultz                                                                             German data: Deutscher Wetterdienst
What are the reasons for increased ETp in some, declining
or stable ETp in other regions? ?

Aerosol impact on solar radiation could be a factor in some
regions (i.e. China)

In China and South Africa, wind speed has declined between
25 and 29% since the beginning of the seventies! In Australia
similar effects are observed.

                           Hans R. Schultz
Average wind speed in Geisenheim

                                            average wind speed in summer (10 Meter height)
                       5                                                                                 4
                           (November - April)                      (May - October)

                       4
                                                                                                         3
    Wind speed (m/s)

                                                                                                              Wind speed (m/s)
                       3

                                                                                                         2

                       2

                                                                                                         1
                       1

                       0                                                                                  0
                           1960   1970 1980       1990   2000     1960    1970 1980      1990   2000   2010
                                           Year                                   Year

 Hans R. Schultz
                                                         Data source: Deutscher Wetterdienst
These differences are also one of the resons we need
specific regional based modelling efforts
Expl. REMO-UBA, changes in drought days 2041-2070 minus
abseline 1971-2000, region Rheingau, Germany

                           Marco Hofmann et Hans Reiner Schultz unpublished
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution

    1. Where is the water going?
    2. Variability and continuity
    3. soils: the unknown half

                     Hans R. Schultz
The variety question is alway launched during the climate
change debate.

Cabernet Sauvignon regions – what has changed?

                          Hans R. Schultz
The variety question is alway launched during the
climate change debate.

Cabernet Sauvignon regions – what has changed? A re-analysis of John
Gladstones (1992 Viticulture and Environment, Winetitles) climate data
sets

                      Bordeaux, France

    Napa Valley,
    California, USA                                           Coonawarra, Australia

                                         Barossa Valley, Australia
Average temperature
                                                                            Napa
     Barossa                                           Gladstones 1992                            reanalyses 1990-2015 (25 years)
     Bordeaux 22
     Coonawarra
                   average temperature (°C)

                                              20

                                              18

                                              16

                                              14
                                                                       Bordeaux, 41 years                        Coonawarra, Australia
                                                                       Coonawarra, 30 years                      Barossa Valley, Australia
                                              12                       Barossa, 16 years                         Napa Valley, California
                                                                                                                 Bordeaux, France
                                                                       Napa, 30 years

                                                   3     4   5   6    7     8    9      10    3      4   5   6      7     8     9   10       11
        northern hemis. May                                          July       Sept.                    May       July       Sept.
        southern hemis. Nov.                                         Jan.       Mar.                     Nov.      Jan.       Mar.

Hans R. Schultz
Maximum temperature
                                                           Gladstones 1992                       reanalyses 1990-2015 (25 years)
                                                  30
                  average max. temperature (°C)
                                                  28

                                                  26

                                                  24

                                                  22

                                                  20
                                                                                                                 Bordeaux, France
                                                  18                                                             Coonawarra, Australia
                                                                                                                 Barossa Valley, Australia
                                                                                                                 Napa Valley, California
                                                  16
                                                       3     4   5   6    7     8    9      10   3   4   5   6      7     8    9    10       11
    northern hemis. May                                                  July       Sept.                May       July       Sept.
    southern hemis. Nov.                                                 Jan.       Mar.                 Nov.      Jan.       Mar.

Hans R. Schultz
Minimum temperature

                                                    Gladstones 1992                           reanalyses 1990-2015 (25 years)

                                           16
           average min. temperature (°C)

                                           15

                                           14

                                           13

                                           12

                                           11

                                           10

                                            9

                                            8                                                                   Bordeaux, France
                                                                                                                Coonawarra, Australia
                                            7                                                                   Barossa Valley, Australia
                                                                                                                Napa Valley, California
                                            6
                                                3     4   5   6     7    8     9     10   3     4   5      6   7      8    9   10 11
northern hemis. May                                               July       Sept.                  May        July       Sept.
southern hemis. Nov.                                              Jan.       Mar.                   Nov.       Jan.       Mar.
Hans R. Schultz
Day-night temperature difference
                                                                                        Bordeaux, France             reanalyses
                                                              Gladstones 1992           Coonawarra, Australia        1990-2015 (25 years)
                  max.-min. diff. temperature (°C)   18                                 Barossa Valley, Australia
                                                                                        Napa Valley, California
                                                     17

                                                     16

                                                     15

                                                     14

                                                     13

                                                     12

                                                     11

                                                     10

                                                      9
                                                          3     4   5   6    7     8    9      10   3    4     5    6   7      8   9   10   11
    northern hemis. May                                                     July       Sept.                  May       July       Sept.
    southern hemis. Nov.                                                    Jan.       Mar.                   Nov.      Jan.       Mar.

Hans R. Schultz
rainfall
                                           Gladstones 1992                            reanalyses 1990-2015 (25 years)
                                  90           Bordeaux, France
                                               Coonawarra, Australia
                                  80           Barossa Valley, Australia
                                               Napa Valley, California
                                  70
                  rainfall (mm)

                                  60

                                  50

                                  40

                                  30

                                  20

                                  10

                                   0
                                       3   4    5     6     7    8     9     10   3    4   5      6   7      8    9   10 11
   northern hemis.  May                                   July       Sept.                 May        July       Sept.
    southern hemis. Nov.                                  Jan.       Mar.                  Nov.       Jan.       Mar.
Hans R. Schultz
We need to research the plasticity of varieties more

                     Sadras, Schultz, Girona, Marsal (2012): FAO crop responses to water

   Hans R. Schultz                                                          18.04.2016     28
Issues to be considered for strategic
adaptation to climate evolution

    1. Where is the water going?
    2. Variability and continuity
    3. soils: the unknown half

                     Hans R. Schultz
3. Soils the unknown half
 Our most valuable resource is a very large climate player
 but we do know little about it

Expanding the role of agricultural soil GHG mitigation will require an integrated research support
and implementation platform (a more intensive monitoring network is needed)

               Paustian et al. (2016) Climate-smart soils, Vol. 532, 49-57, Nature

                                Hans R. Schultz
3. Soils are the key to sustainability

We need to learn more about GHG emission and mitigation,
water, fertilizer, carbon and nutrient management

It takes 2000 years to build 10 cm of soil

Every year we loose 24 Billion Tons of soil due to erosion
(extreme events will increase this number)

This is 3.4 tons per person and year and is equivalent to 60€
per person and year = 420 Billion € per year

    Hans R. Schultz                                  18.04.2016   31
Climate effects on soils, strong increase in soil
temperature (the Potsdam time-series)

Since 1889 strong warming May-August (1m depth 2.4° - 3.2°C !!)
                                             1,6
                                                                                         mean trend 1889-2007
                                             1,4               ***

                                             1,2
                       absolute trend (°C)

                                                        **
                                             1,0                        ***
         Trend in °K

                                             0,8
                                                                                 **
                                             0,6
                                                                                            **
                                             0,4
                                                                                                      *
                                             0,2

                                             0,0
                                                       air    soil 1m soil 2m soil 4m soil 6m soil 12m
                                              soil temperatures at different depths as compared to air temperature

   Böhme und Böttcher, Klimastatusbericht des Deutschen Wetterdienstes 2011
                                                                                  Hans R. Schultz
                                                               Hans R. Schultz
soil GHG emission estimation

                                                 soil respiration, Geisenheim, Germany
                                                                                                the future
simulated annual soil respiration rate

                                         620     10-year running average
                                                 Projections A1       RCP 8,5
                                                 Projections A2
                                         600     Projections B1       RCP 2,6

                                         580
           (g C m year)

                                         560                                                             + 15 %
                  -2

                                         540
                                                                                                 This change to date
                                         520                                                     equates to an
                                                                                                 additional emission
                                         500
                                                                                                 of roughly 1 t CO2
                                         480                                                     /ha/year = for all
                                          1880    1920         1960         2000         2040
                                                                                                 European
                                                                                                    2080
                                                                                                 vineyards
                                                                        Year
                                                                                                 3.5 Mio t CO2
                      Hans R. Schultz
soil GHG emission estimation

                                         Italian data
estimated annual soil respiration rate
                                                                       Decrease in the past due to shifts in
                                                                       precipitation rates
                                          800

                                          750
           (g C m year)

                                          700
                                                                                                        + 16 %
                  -2

                                          650

                                          600      Chianti, Italy
                                                   10-year average
                                                   Rome, Italy
                                          550      10-year average

                                            1860        1900         1940          1980   2020       2060
                                                                            Year

 Hans R. Schultz
soil GHG emission estimation

                                          Australian data
estimated annual soil respiration rate

                                         900
                                                                                 Perth, Australia
                                                                                 10-year average
                                                                                 Margaret River, Australia
                                         850                                     10-year average

                                                                                          We need to validate (or
           (g C m year)

                                                                                          discredit) these models
                                         800                                              and trends
                  -2

                                         750

                                         700

                                         650
                                           1860    1900     1940          1980           2020          2060
                                                                   Year
                         Hans R. Schultz
Modeling of soil nitrogen dynamics (first estimates)

                                                                                                                                      Simulation cumulative N-Mineralisation (kg ha )
                                                    220                                                                         220

                                                                                                                                      -1
  Simulation cumulative N-Mineralisation (kg ha )
 -1

                                                          soil dry and
                                                                   Col 7 vsstony
                                                                            Col 9
                                                                                        A        Löeß-clay                  B
                                                                   Col 7 vs Col 10
                                                          (low organic      matter)
                                                                   Col 7 vs Col 11               (high in organic matter)
                                                    200                                                                         200
                                                                    1961-1990
                                                    180             1971-2000                                                   180
                                                                    1981-2010

                                                    160                                                                         160

                                                    140                                                                         140

                                                    120                                                                         120

                                                    100                                                                         100

                                                     80                                                                         80

                                                     60                                                 60
                                                      210 220 230 240 250 260 270 220 230 240 250 260 270
                                                      1. August            1. Sept.    1. Oct.
                                                                                      Day of the Year
Hans R. Schultz                                                                                            Schultz, Ehlig, Hassemer-Schwarz unpublished
Sumary

We need to analyse all climate data region by region for
strategic decisions with respect to water

Varietal plasticity needs to be studied

As scientists we need to focus more on the soil

    Hans R. Schultz                                 18.04.2016   37
Merci pour votre attention

Thank you for the invitation; and

Marco Hofmann for his modelling efforts
Inaki Garcia de Cortazar Atauri for acess to French
climate data

  Hans R. Schultz
                    Hans R. Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University
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