Lessons learned from the frontline of the global COVID-19 vaccine rollout - Executive Perspectives - Boston Consulting Group
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Executive
Perspectives
March 2021
Lessons learned from
COVID-19 vaccine rollout
the frontline of the global
Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 19 March 2021 Version 2.0
COVID-19 IS A GLOBAL SOCIETAL CRISIS
BCG Executive We at BCG believe that the COVID-19 outbreak is first and
foremost a societal crisis, threatening lives and the well-being
Perspectives of our global community. Society now, more than ever, needs
2.0Version 2.0
to collaborate to protect people’s lives and health, manage mid-
term implications, and search for lasting solutions
OBJECTIVES OF THIS DOCUMENT
Perspectives
Perspectives 19 March19
updatedupdated March
2021 2021
Version
LEADERS NEED TO DRIVE AN INTEGRATED RESPONSE
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BCG Executive
TO NAVIGATE THE CRISIS
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It is the duty of health, political, societal, and business leaders
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to navigate through this crisis. A complex interplay of epidemic
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progression, societal response, government action, sector impact,
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and company action is playing out. This document intends to help
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leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate the crisis in
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their own environments. It encourages thinking across the multiple
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time horizons over which we see the crisis manifesting itself
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The COVID-19 recovery will be driven by disease progression, de-averaged economic
impact, government policies, and business and public responses
Flatten Fight Future
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Typically in the initial phase after a pandemic Finding paths to collectively fight the virus, Disease controlled through vaccine/cure/ herd
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outbreak, the goal is to urgently limit the number restart the economy, and support society in immunity and treatment within sustainable medical
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of new cases, especially critical care balancing lives and livelihood capacities possible
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19 March19
updatedupdated
Social distancing (lockdown) and partial business Increasing economic activity with recovering GDP, Reactivated economy with strong business
closures lead to economic recession with a large some business reopenings, and social distancing rebound and job growth, social restrictions limited or
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employment impact on a sustainable level completely suspended
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1. Disease progression, healthcare system capacity, and response
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2. Government policies and economic stimulus
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3. Economic scenarios
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4. Business engagement and response
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5. Public engagement and response
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All of the above five factors result in specific economic and social outcomes in each phase
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Source: BCG
3
Summary snapshot | Restart progression at a glance
As of 15 Mar 2021
To be updated in forthcoming editions
Epidemic Progression Consumer Activity Business Impact
Global epidemic snapshot Mobility Stock market performance
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120M 20.7M 2.7M 359M Nov Dec Jan Month end vs. 02 Jan '20 Nov Dec Jan
Mobility6 US -20% -20% -26%
2021
# of # of # of Vaccine doses S&P500 11% 15% 14%
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cases active cases fatalities administered (month vs.
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Jan '20) Europe -31% --34% -47% FTSE100 -18% -15% -16%
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Nov Dec Jan Feb
19 March19
Japan -7% -6% -22% CHN SSE 10% 12% 13%
updatedupdated
Month-on- Americas 1.7x 1.4x 1.1x 0.6x
month Volatility Index (S&P500)12 1.6x 1.8x 2.7x
Europe 1.8x 0.8x 1.1x 0.7x Domestic air US
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growth of -45% -43% -54%
new cases2 Asia3 1.0x 1.1x 0.7x 0.9x travel tickets
International trade
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booking7,8 (YoY) UK -55% -53% -78%
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China -5% -15% -37%
Trade value13 US 1% 3% 2%
Economic Impact
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(YoY) France 0% 5%
IMF4 (Jan '21) Banks5 Sales
GDP forecasts (YoY%)
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China 14% 13%
Retail US 5% 2% 10%
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2021 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
goods sales9
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4.2% Europe10 0% 2% -4% Industrial production
(excl. auto &
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Europe
fuel, YoY)
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5.1% China 4% 4%
Purchasing US 57 57 59
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US manager’s
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3.1% EU 54 55 55
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Passenger US -21% -9% -15% index14
Japan China 52 52 51
vehicle (base = 50)
8.1%
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sales11(YoY) Europe -5% -3% -22%
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China
11.5%
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China 13% 7% 30% Steel production (YoY)15 6% 6% 8%
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India
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1. Calculated as 7-day rolling average; 2. Calculated as monthly average of daily cases vs. previous month; 3. Includes Middle East and Oceania; 4. IMF Jan 2021 forecast; 5. For India, forecast is for financial year; for others, it is for calendar year; YoY forecasts; range from forecasts (where available) of World Bank, International Monetary Fund, JP Morgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America;
Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; As of reports dated 08 June 2020 to Mar 01 2021; For India's GDP forecast, World Bank's 2020 forecast from 08 June provides the upper bound of the forecast range; 6. Mobility values are calculated as the average of mean monthly mobilities in workplace, public transit, retail & recreation, and grocery & pharmacy and compared to a
baseline from 03 Jan – 06 Feb 2020; Europe mobility values are calculated as the average of Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 7. Calculated as change in last 14 days rolling average value as compared to same period last year; 8. As of 01 Mar 2021; 9. Retail goods sales include online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personal care, home appliances, general
merchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel & food services; 10. Europe includes 27 countries currently in EU; 11. Figures represent passenger vehicle (including sedan, hatchback, SUV, MPV, van and pickup) sales data for over same month in previous year; Europe value calculated as cumulative sales in Germany, France, UK, Spain, and Italy; 12. Underlying data is from Chicago
Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX); Volatility Index is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility and provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments; 13. Calculated as sum of imports and exports, measured in USD and compared to previous year period; EU trade values between EU and all outside countries 14.
PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding (>50), staying the same (50), or contracting (
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Perspectives LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE FRONTLINE OF THE
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GLOBAL COVID-19 VACCINE ROLLOUT
AGENDA
2021
Version
Global vaccine development and implementation
19 March19
updatedupdated March
2021
Equitable vaccine distribution and path to normality
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UPDATED ANALYSES AND IMPACT
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Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
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Economic and business impact
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7 key lessons learned from the frontline of the global COVID-19 vaccine rollout
Vaccine development in record time
1 Safe and effective vaccines were developed, tested, and approved with
unprecedented speed
INITIAL FINDINGS
A
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Develop and implement global Vaccination uptake will follow "S-curve"
COVID-19 vaccination program 2 Vaccine uptake can be modeled along a predictive path, shaped by
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shifting constraints and supply
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with unprecedented speed
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Vaccine effectiveness proven in real world
3
updatedupdated
Israel is a successful example showing that broad vaccination across the
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population results in controlling cases
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Developed nations must focus on uptake
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1
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Developed nations will soon have adequate supply, but must address
hesitancy to increase demand
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STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
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B
Urgency to get vaccine to Southern Hemisphere as winter approaches
2
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Minimize harm from COVID-19 and Low- and middle-income countries lack vaccine supply; redistribution from
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maximize equitable distribution developed nations is crucial to protect populations
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within and across nations
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Phased approach to reopening will save lives
3
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A planned and phased approach to reopening alongside other public
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health measures is critical
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COVID-19 will stay; goal to treat as "next flu"
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COVID-19 will not be fully eliminated; the mid-term objective is to de-
risk and manage it like the "next flu" 6
A.1 Vaccine development in record time
Safe and effective vaccines were developed, tested, and approved with unprecedented speed
Vaccine candidates Process acceleration Looking ahead
findings
As of March 15th, 2021, 121 vaccine candidates Despite concerns, no steps were skipped
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Key
have been approved for use globally in the vaccine development process Clinical assessments for
approved vaccines will
Registration trials have resulted in 0 Regulatory agencies substantially
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continue throughout
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hospitalizations and deaths accelerated review between phases
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vaccination rollout
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Thus far, vaccines
updatedupdated
Year scrutinized by scientific
Vaccine development timeline
Traditional 5–10- year process
A.2 Vaccination uptake will follow "S-curve"
Vaccine uptake can be modeled along a predictive path, shaped by shifting constraints and supply
Rollout Ramp up Reach the end
Primary Supply
constraint Supply Demand
Throughput
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Conceptual illustration
Supply constraints initially result from the lack of vaccines in the market. As Demand constraints are driven by
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vaccines are approved and distribution begins, supply can be constrained by # of hesitancy, due to questions on safety and
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administrators, storage requirements, etc. effectiveness
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Uptake level1
updatedupdated
Israel
Disease risk minimized through significant share UAE 3
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of vulnerable population being vaccinated2
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Demand becomes
constraint
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UK 2
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USA
Germany France Vaccine supply ramps up
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1 Time
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As of 25 Feb 2021
Address bottlenecks in
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rollout and expand supply
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Looking ahead
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As nations continue to obtain more vaccine supply, they will reach an inflection point where demand will be the primary constraint.
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Priorities will shift from increasing vaccine supply to increasing uptake among different populations, particularly those that are
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vaccine hesitant
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1. Does not distinguish between 1 vs. 2-dose regimen (i.e., those who have had 1 out of 2 doses are considered as "vaccinated") 2. Disease risk minimization dependent on the share of vulnerable people that get vaccinated
Source: Our World in Data, BCG analysis 8
A.2 (continued) Vaccine campaigns are underway globally; countries are at different stages
Cumulative COVID-19 vaccinations given per 100 people as of 05 March 2021
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100
95 Israel
90
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85
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Total vaccinations per hundred people
80
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19 March19
75 Spain
updatedupdated
70
65 Italy
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60
UAE
Brazil
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55
Germany
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50
45
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40 France
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35 Canada
30 UK
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25 Russia
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US
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Argentina
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15
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10 India
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0 Mexico
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Days since first vaccine was administered
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Note: Data counted as a single dose and may not equal the total number of people vaccinated, depending on the specific dose regime. For China and Russia, first available data point in December is treated as Day 0, although vaccinations
commenced in Summer/Fall 2020
Source: Our World in Data
9
A.3 Vaccine effectiveness proven in real world
Israel is a successful example showing that broad vaccination across the population results in controlling cases
Vaccination Looking ahead
statistics
>50% of total population has received at least 1 dose (~4.5M people)
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>80% of people aged 60+ are fully vaccinated Israel continues to
vaccinate more people
~50% decrease in hospitalizations since peak1
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while continuing with
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other public health
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Daily hospitalizations in Israel2 measures
updatedupdated
As of 04 Mar 2021
Israel begins
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vaccinations on Dec
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20th with healthcare Israel continues to
2,000
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workers and people 60+
promote vaccination
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while closely
monitoring different
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Data
1,000 variants
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Mask mandate
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continues even with
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vaccination progress
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0 Reopening continues as
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vaccinated people are
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Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
issued a "green pass",
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Israel enters 2nd Israel enters 2nd As of Feb 17th, which can be presented
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lockdown on lockdown on ages 16+ are on paper or via mobile
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Sep 18th Dec 27th3 eligible4
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1. Change in 7-day trailing average of daily hospitalizations from Jan 21st peak to Mar 4th; 2. 7-day trailing average of daily hospitalizations in Israel; 3. Third lockdown ended on February 8, 2021; 4.
People with severe allergic reactions, recovered patients, andB.1 Developed nations must focus on uptake
Developed nations will soon have adequate supply, but must address hesitancy to increase demand
U.S. example shown
Vaccine supply
U.S. vaccine supply forecasts Looking ahead
Based on current manufacturer commitments, the U.S. will have enough vaccines available for:
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• 200 million people in CDC's priority groups by early May1 Rapidly expand vaccine
throughput capacity to
• All 250 million U.S. adults by end of May2
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accommodate for
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supply increases
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U.S. adult As of 08 Mar 2021 % Hesitant per segment immediately
updatedupdated
population not
yet vaccinated 185 million 58% 33% 57% This includes building
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or scheduled: slack capacity into
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~15 M system to allow for
Vaccine hesitancy
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Definitely 42% ~8 M uneven supply releases
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~9 M
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Likely 12% ~85 M
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Maybe 16%
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~53 M Urgently address
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Unlikely 10%
vaccine hesitancy
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Definitely not through targeted
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19%
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outreach to increase
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Overall U.S. Hesitant Black Americans Pre-retirement Low-income Remaining
Adult Population adults White Americans White uptake of vaccine
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Americans3
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1. Captures all priority groups (~202M) including healthcare workers, 65+, health vulnerable, and essential workers since prioritization varies across states ; 2. 77% of US population (~253M) over 18 years old; 3. Excluding Black Americans and White
Americas age 55 to 64. Note: Vaccine supply estimates based on US purchasing agreements, including for J&J vaccine, which was given Emergency Use Authorization by FDA late February; Assumes near constant flow of doses from manufacturer.
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Hesitancy is attributed to respondents who answered 'Maybe,’ 'Somewhat unlikely,' or 'Highly unlikely' to a question asking whether they would make an appointment for a COVID-19 vaccine today if it were available; responses filtered to include only
individuals who had not already received a vaccine and were not scheduled to receive a vaccine at the time of the survey.
Source: BCG National Vaccine Sentiment Survey February 17-22, 2021; n = 1,450; overall sample representative of US adult population by age, income, ethnicity, gender, and region); US American Community Survey 2019; CDC COVID Data Tracker; New
York Times; Bloomberg; NPR; Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J press releases 11B.2 Urgent need to get vaccine to Southern Hemisphere as winter approaches
Low- and middle-income countries1 lack vaccine supply; redistribution from developed nations is crucial to protect populations
Vaccine doses administered per 100 people Looking ahead
Administered vaccines
No data
70%
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0-5
Mission critical to
protect populations in
of vaccines have gone to people
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low- and middle-income
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5-10
representing 20% of countries
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countries as variants
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proliferate and winter
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updatedupdated
These countries have an average 10-50
approaches in the
GDP per capita more than 2x Southern Hemisphere
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global average 50+
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As of 15 Mar 2021
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Doses per 100 people
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No data Doses contracted as a % of population
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Vaccine contracts
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0-5% It is imperative to
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50%
redistribute vaccines
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immediately from
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5-50%
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of countries have only secured wealthy nations to
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enough vaccine supply for 5% of 50-100% prevent impending
health crises
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their population
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100%+
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% of population covered As of 01 Mar 2021
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1.Low- and middle-income countries, defined as countries with a GNI per capita ofB.3 Phased approach to reopening will save lives
A planned and phased approach to reopening alongside other public health measures is critical
Looking ahead
65-90% reduction in peak ICU occupancy projected by phasing the lifting of restrictions
and delaying reopenings
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It is critical for
Modeled effects of reopening decisions
Modeled impact of phased and delayed reopening decisions on ICU occupancy peak businesses, schools, etc.
2021
to use a phased
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reopening approach,
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with clear thresholds
% of baseline peak ICU
updatedupdated
for action based on
100 local infection
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dynamics and
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25-30%
80 vaccination progress
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60 20-25%
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15-20%
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40
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5-15% As reopening
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20 commences, COVID-19
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testing, contact tracing,
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0 and other public health
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Baseline Peak Reduction in ICU 1 month 2 month 3 month Potential reduced measures should
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ICU occupancy: peak if restrictions ICU peak
continue to be upheld
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restrictions lifted lifted in phases Reduction in ICU peak for each month that reopening is delayed
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all at once today
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Source: IHME; Daily COVID ICU hospitalizations for a national government, BCG analysis
13B.4 COVID-19 will stay; goal to treat as "next flu"
COVID-19 will not be fully eliminated; the mid-term objective is to de-risk and manage it like the "next flu"
Hospitalization rates
Looking ahead
35x
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Through regular
reduction in Infection COVID-19 vaccines can help reduce hospitalization rates to manageable vaccination, COVID-19
2021
levels that are even below the hospitalization rates of the annual flu risk can be managed to
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Hospitalization Rate
March
(IHR) for people aged levels similar to those
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19 March19
65+1 after of the annual flu
updatedupdated
vaccination
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Variants introduced over time pose risks to vaccine efficacy
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As of 05 Mar 2021
Variants have the
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100
potential to increase
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19A 20F 80 COVID-19 infectiousness
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Variants
19B 20D and/or decrease
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60
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20A 20G vaccine effectiveness
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20B 20H/501YV2 / B.1.351 40
Booster shots
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20C 20I/501YV1/B.1.1.7
administered on a
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20
20E (EU1) 20J/501YV3/P.1 /P.2
regular cadence can
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help combat variants
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Oct-20
Apr-20
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Feb-20
Sep-20
Feb-21
Aug-20
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Jan-20
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Jan-21
Mar-20
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1. Derived using the CDC's data on COVID-19 net hospitalization, South Korea’s hospitalization data, and data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. Note: Several of the concerning variants (e.g., those first identified in
the UK and South Africa), share mutations (e.g., N501Y), while also having distinct mutations (some more than others)
Source: JAMA, Nextstrain, Financial Times, Virological, CDC, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, real world data in South Korea and Israel, BCG analysis 14Vaccine roll-out underway amidst spread of COVID-19 variants; vaccine distribution and
access raise ethical questions
As of 18 Mar 2021
March 2, 2021 March 3, 2021 March 2, 2021 March 4, 2021
updatedupdated
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19 March19 2021
Version
March 2.0Version 2.0
President Biden says US would have As COVID-19 vaccines spread, so do Virus variant in Brazil infected many U.K. to fast-track approval of vaccines
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enough vaccine doses for every adult underhanded ways to get them—not who had already recovered from for COVID-19 variants
American by the end of May everyone is prepared to wait their turn COVID-19
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February 18, 2021 March 4, 2021 March 18, 2021 March 2, 2021
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Emmanuel Macron urges Europe Hundreds of fake COVID-19 vaccines European nations will resume Texas and other states ease COVID-19
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and US to send 5% of vaccines to seized in South Africa, Interpol says AstraZeneca vaccine rollout as EU rules despite warnings
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Africa regulator affirms safety
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15Action areas for leaders | Menu of actions under consideration by companies ACTIONS FOR
to encourage uptake among employees, subject to local regulation LEADERS
Educate & Facilitate
Incentivize Penalize Mandate
Copyright © 2021 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. BCG Executive Perspectives updated 19 March 2021 Version 2.0
encourage access
Educate employees Make it easier Reward individuals Punish individuals Require vaccination
on vaccines and/or for employees to get for inoculating for not inoculating for a group of individuals
encourage uptake vaccinated
Encourage vaccination and Adjust workers' schedules Provide paid time off and Restrict work travel or Mandate employees to be
interventions
highlight benefits through around vaccine transportation to vaccination attendance at company vaccinated
Example
educational information; appointments events without vaccine
sharing science and Provide $100 for vaccination
evidence from trusted Provide onsite vaccination or educational course if No paid medical leave if Require proof of
authorities medical/religious exemption vaccine is refused vaccination for onsite
vendors and/or customers
More complex issues with
liability and legal issues to
Simpler interventions (minimal resolve, complex
liability or legal issues, communications
straightforward communications)
16BCG Executive
Perspectives LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE FRONTLINE OF THE
2.0Version 2.0
GLOBAL COVID-19 VACCINE ROLLOUT
AGENDA
2021
Version
March
Global vaccine development and implementation
2021
19 March19
updatedupdated
Equitable vaccine distribution and path to normality
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BCG Executive Perspectives
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UPDATED ANALYSES AND IMPACT
reserved.
reserved.
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Epidemic progression and virus monitoring
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Economic and business impact
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17After a substantial case peak during Northern Hemisphere’s winter, EPIDEMIC
global case volumes have begun to drop PROGRESSION
As of 15 Mar 2021
Daily new cases (7-day rolling average) Key observations
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800,000
120M
March
2021 2021
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South
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600,000
# of confirmed cases
updatedupdated
America
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North
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400,000 Asia
North
1 America
America
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20.7M
South America
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Africa
Asia1
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200,000 North
# of active cases
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Africa
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Europe
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Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
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2.7M
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Month-on-
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month growth ~235% ~20% ~50% ~60% ~10% ~10% ~40% ~50% ~10% ~10% ~(40%)
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of new cases2
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# of fatalities
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1. Includes Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and surrounding island nations of the Pacific ocean); 2. Calculated as monthly as average of daily as compared
To previous month; Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Our World in Data; BCG 18COVID-19 has broader geographic reach today with countries at different EPIDEMIC
PROGRESSION
stages in their fight
As of 15 Mar 2021 Non-exhaustive
CONTINUATION RESURGENCE CRUSH AND CONTAIN
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Curve was never quite flattened; Curve was flattened, but saw one Curve was flattened and case
on-going battle or more resurgences counts continue to remain low
March
2021 2021
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Daily new confirmed cases per million1 Daily new confirmed cases per million1 Daily new confirmed cases per million1
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1,000
updatedupdated
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800
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600
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400
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200
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0
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Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar '21 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar '21 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar '21
Boston
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Argentina UAE Brazil US France Germany Spain Australia Japan
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Switzerland UK Singapore South Korea
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1. Data shown as 7 day rolling average of daily new cases per million
Source: Our World in Data; BCG
19Many large economies expected to continue recovery and reach
ECONOMIC
2019 GDP levels between 2021-2022 IMPACT
As of 01 Mar 2021
GDP forecast levels indexed to 2019 value (Base: 100)
US Europe China Japan India1
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120.8
116 116.8
2021
115.8 114.8
Version
March
112.9
112
2021
112.0
19 March19
110.8
110.6
updatedupdated
110.1 109.6
108 107.2
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104 104.1
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104.1
103.1 103.1 103.1
102.3 102.6
102.0
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101.7
101.5 100.6 100.2
100 99.8 100.1 100.2
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99.8 99.5 99.3
98.8 98.6
97.8 97.6
96.6 96.6 96.9 97.1 96.8
reserved.
96 96.4 95.9 95.8
94.8 95.3
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94.9
94.7
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92.8
92 92.6 92.0
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90.4
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88
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2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022
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2021 forecast
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99-103% 95-99% 107-113% 96-100% 98-106%
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vs 2019
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2019 GDP levels (Index) Forecast IMF (Jan 20, 2021) Forecast World Bank (Jan 5, 2021) Forecast range from leading banks2
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Note: As of reports dated 08 June 2020 to 01 Mar 2021, YoY forecasts 2020 values are estimated actual GDP; 1. For India, forecast is for financial year; for other countries, the forecast is for calendar year; 2. Range
from forecasts (where available) of JPMorgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; Source: Bloomberg; World Bank; IMF; BCG 20Retail and recreation mobility recovered fastest; public transit mobility
ECONOMIC
remains lower in most countries IMPACT
As of 01 Mar 2021
Workplace1, public transit2 and retail & recreation3 mobility compared to baseline of January 2020 to February 2020
US Germany Australia
March
2021
19 March19 2021
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updatedupdated
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Perspectives
Italy South Korea
BCG Executive
reserved.
reserved. Perspectives
BCG Executive
Mar
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Sweden Japan
Consulting
Consulting Group.
Group.
Workplace mobility
Boston
Retail & recreation Public transit mobility
Boston
byby
Lockdown started4 Lockdown easing4
2021
Mar
Nov
Dec
Aug
Feb
Sep
Feb
Apr
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Jun
Mar
Jan
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Jul
Copyright
1. Tracked as changes in visits to workplaces; 2. Tracked as changes in visits to public transport hubs, such as underground, bus and train stations; 3. Tracked as changes for restaurants, cafés, shopping centers,
theme parks, museums, libraries and cinemas; 4. Refers to average lockdown start and easing dates; Note: Data taken as weekly average compared with baseline (average of all daily values of respective weeks
during Feb 15 2020–Feb 28 2021); Source: Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: 01 Mar 2020; Press search; BCG 21Manufacturing PMI recovery globally indicates positive momentum ECONOMIC
As of 01 Mar 2021 IMPACT
Manufacturing PMI before, during, and after the crisis
US Germany China1
2.0Version 2.0
Neutral 11 9 Neutral 6 8 8 8 7 Neutral 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1
9 8 0
level = 50 6 5 level = 50 1 2 level = 50
3 4
2021
1 0
Version
-5 -2 -5
March
-1 -5
2021
-9 -7 -16 -13
19 March19
-14
updatedupdated
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Perspectives
Italy South Korea
Perspectives
Neutral Neutral
5 1 3 3 3
BCG Executive
2 3 3 4 2 3
level = 50 level = 50
BCG Executive
-1 -1 0 -1 0
-5 -3 -3 -2
-10 -6
-8 -9 -7
reserved.
-19
reserved.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
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Sweden Japan
Group.
Group.
Neutral Neutral 0
Consulting
15 12
9
Consulting
level = 50 5 8 level = 50
2 3 1 3 -1 -2 -1 -0.2
-3 -2 -1
Boston
≤ -30% -29% to -15% -14% to 0% > 0% -5 -5
Boston
-3 -8
-7 -10
-13 -11
byby
-12
Lockdown started Lockdown easing
2021
Copyright ©©2021
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Copyright
1. Lockdown dates are only pertaining to Hubei province; Note: PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding,
staying the same, or contracting. 50 is neutral, >50 is considered to be positive sentiment andPassenger vehicle sales see rebounds but dips again in countries
ECONOMIC
with second wave of lockdowns IMPACT
As of 01 Mar 2021
Monthly passenger vehicle1 sales, YOY % change vs past year
US Germany China2
2.0Version 2.0
8% 9% 30%
7% 2% 9% 6% 8% 9% 13% 7%
-4% -9% -9% -9% -15% -7% -11% -5% -4% -3%
-14% -2%
2021
-23% -20% -20%
Version
-30% -21% -32% -30%
-46% -43% -40% -38% -48%
March
-58% -61% -49% -82%
2021
19 March19
Feb
Sep
Jan
Dec
Jan
Jun
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May
Oct
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Apr
Jul
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Feb
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Sep
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July
Feb
Sep
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jun
Oct
Mar
May
Nov
Apr
updatedupdated
Aug
Aug
Italy South Korea3
Perspectives
2% 8% 0% 46%
Perspectives
18% 19%
BCG Executive
-6% -8% -11% -7 -14 -14 11% 12% 13% 9%
0% 6%
BCG Executive
-48% -24%
-2% -6%
-85% -14% -20%
-98%
reserved.
Feb
July
Feb
Sep
Sep
Jan
Dec
Jan
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jun
Jun
Mar
May
Oct
Nov
Mar
Oct
May
Nov
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Apr
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reserved.
Aug
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Group.
26% 30%
Group.
7% 6% 10% 7%
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Consulting
-6% -9% -4% -5% -13%
-18% -22% -13% -12% -10% -9% -13% -15%
-37% -34% -30% -23% -15%
Boston
≤ -30% -29% to -15% -14% to 0% > 0% -50%
Boston
-47%
byby
July
Feb
Sep
Jan
Jan
Jun
Deec
Mar
Apr
May
Oct
Nov
Aug
Lockdown started Lockdown easing
Feb
Sep
Dec
Jan
Jun
Jan
Oct
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Apr
Jul
Aug
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May
2021
Copyright ©©2021
Copyright
1. Passenger vehicle sales includes data on, where available, hatchback, MPV, pickup, sedan, SUV, and vans; 2. Stimulus policies: Launched subsidies for car purchases in 10 cities, lessened purchase restriction in high tier cities and extended NEV
subsidies; 3. South Korea's growth in auto sales from Mar through June 2020 is supported by recent tax cuts for individual consumption goods (e.g., cars), several carmakers (e.g. Audi, VW) launching new models and the increased appreciation by
the Koreans of cars as a safe mode of transport and as a travel alternative for camping during COVID-19, supported by recently passed legislation to allow a variety of different cars to be modified into 'camping cars'.
Source: Marklines; BCG 23Retail goods sales (excl. auto and fuel) have rebounded to pre-COVID-19
ECONOMIC
levels across most countries IMPACT
As of 15 Mar 2021
Growth of total retail goods sales (excl. auto & fuel)1, YOY % change vs same month past year
Retail goods sales include online & offline sales and comprise food & beverages, apparel, cosmetics & personal
care, home appliances, general merchandise, building material; do not include auto, fuel & food services
2.0Version 2.0
Jan
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
'21
2021
Version
March
4% 4% 1% -15% -4% 3% 4% 5% 7% 6% 5% 2% 10%
2021
US
Retail goods sales have rebounded
19 March19
updatedupdated
to pre-COVID-19 levels, with
UK 1% 0% -4% -19% -11% 1% 3% 4% 6% 7% 6% - - countries showing higher growth
Perspectives
levels than in Jan
Perspectives
Italy 1% 2% -18% -27% -11% -1% -11% 1% 0% 1% -7% -6% -8%
BCG Executive
US and UK have seen consistent
BCG Executive
retail sales growth over last 6
Sweden 3% 5% 2% -3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 0% 3% months
reserved.
reserved.
Belgium 2% 1% -6% -14% 2% 7% 3% 14% 5% 8% -5% 9% 5% Some European countries have
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seen retail sales dips coinciding
Group.
China2 -16% -12% -6% -1% 2% -2% -1% 2% 1% 4% 4% - with second waves of
Group.
cases/lockdown
Consulting
Consulting
Japan 0% 2% 1% -6% -2% 9% 7% 7% -1% 12% 8% 6% 3%
2021byby Boston
Boston
≤ -30% -29% to -15% -14% to 0% > 0%
Copyright ©©2021
Copyright
1. Retail goods sales categorization may be different across countries; seasonally adjusted values taken; country-specific categorization; 2. For China,
combined value of Jan & Feb is available
Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy Japan 24De-averaged view | Retail store sales in China have rebounded across
ECONOMIC
categories; apparel sales continue to be impacted in other countries IMPACT
As of 15 Mar 2021
Retail store sales breakdown by category, YoY % change vs same month in past year
Food & beverage stores Personal care & cosmetics stores
2.0Version 2.0
Jan Jan
May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
'21 '21 China's sales (except Home
Appliances) have rebounded past
2021
US 15% 12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 9% 12% US -8% -1% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 7%
Version
March
UK 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 6% - - UK -30% -5% -1% 1% 15% 14% 3% - - year-ago run rates
2021
Italy 1% -1% -2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 4% 3% Italy -13% -9% -5% -1% -2% -2% -2% -12% -13%
19 March19
updatedupdated
Sweden 0% 1% 0% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0% Sweden -5% 3% 1% 2% 3% 0% 1% 0% -3% Retail store sales recovery driven by
Belgium 10% 4% 4% 5% 2% 6% 2% 11% 4% Belgium -8% 0% 0% 3% 7% 9% 0% -3% - F&B across all countries
Perspectives
China1 11% 11% 7% 2% 5% 5% 9% 9% - China1 13% 21% 9% 22% 16% 20% 32% 9% -
Perspectives
Japan 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 4% 0% -1% 0% -3% 3% 1% 2% -7% 3% -1% 1% -1%
Japan Personal care & cosmetics
BCG Executive
category sales have rebounded
Apparel stores2 Home appliance stores3
BCG Executive
to 2019 levels except in Italy
reserved.
Jan Jan
May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
'21 '21 Apparel category saw the largest
reserved.
-62% -24% -23% -20% -9% -11% -16% -16% -10% US -42% -20% -6% -4% -7% -5% -10% -16% -2% decline; continued fluctuations and
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US
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UK -60% -34% -25% -15% -14% -14% -29% - - UK -29% 2% 12% 13% 11% 18% 21% - - far from recovery across countries
Group.
Italy -43% -18% -41% -2% -3% -4% -44% -26% -40% Italy -15% 2% 0% 2% 2% 2% -12% -11% -1% except China
Group.
Sweden -31% -22% -22% -18% -14% -14% -25% -30% -24% Sweden 15% 15% 15% 7% 10% 9% 17% 5% 11%
Consulting
Consulting
Belgium -35% -9% -33% 18% -7% -14% -73% -13% - Belgium 2% 14% 2% 23% 19% 16% -18% 11% - Home appliances sales with
-1% 0% -3% 2% 6% 10% 5% 4% - China1 4% 10% -2% 4% -3% 1% 5% 11% -
China1 mixed development; US sales
Boston
Boston
Japan -35% -6% -19% -18% -24% -4% -8% -5% -18% Japan 9% 26% 12% 10% -29% 29% 25% 15% 11%
continue to struggle
2021
Copyright ©©2021 byby
≤ -30% -29% to -15% -14% to 0% > 0%
Copyright
1. For China, Feb data includes both Jan & Feb, Food & beverages category only includes food & grains; 2. Includes clothing accessories, shoes, etc.; 3. Includes audio video &
home appliances stores; Note: For US, share in retail store sales in Q4 2019: F&B ~25%, personal care & cosmetics ~12%, apparel ~6%, home appliances ~3%, general
merchandising ~25% and building material & gardening equipment ~13%. Sector classification & mix may be different across countries; Source: US Census Bureau; PRC National 25
Bureau of Statistics; Eurostat; Ministry of Economy JapanStock markets continue to have an optimistic outlook: 11 out of 24 sectors
ECONOMIC
currently above pre-crisis TSR levels IMPACT
As of 01 Mar 2021
Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies
TSR1 Companies2 with probability of default >15%3
21 Feb 2020 21 Feb 2020
2.0Version 2.0
-20 Mar 2020 -28 Feb 2021 21 Feb 2020 28 Feb 2021
Semiconductors -30% 60% 0% 0%
2021
Tech Hardware -26% 25% 0% 0%
Version
March
Media -36% 21% 0% 0%
2021
Materials -32% 20% 5% 4%
19 March19
updatedupdated
Retailing -40% 19% 0% 18%
Durable Goods -39% 18% 0% 0%
Perspectives
Capital Goods -35% 12% 2% 2%
Auto -41% 12% 0% 0%
Perspectives
Financials -35% 8% 0% 0%
BCG Executive
Software -30% 5% 0% 0%
BCG Executive
Health Equipment -31% 5% 0% 0%
Pharma -20% 0% 0% 5%
reserved.
Prof. Services -30% -1% 0% 0%
reserved.
Household Products -16% -2% 0% 0%
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Hospitality -44% -3% 8% 15%
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Food/Staples retail -10% -3% 0% 0%
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Insurance -39% -5% 0% 0%
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Banks -39% -7% 0% 4%
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Consulting
Food & Beverage -23% -8% 0% 0%
Energy -52% -10% 0% 12%
Boston
Transport -34% -11% 0% 24%
Boston
Telecom -17% -13% 0% 4%
2021byby
Real Estate -39% -13% 0% 0%
Copyright ©©2021
Utilities -30% -16% 0% 3%
Copyright
1. Performance is tracked for two periods, first from 21 February 2020 (before international acceleration of outbreak) to 20 March 2020 (trough of the market) and from 21 February 2020 through 28 Feb 2021; 2. Retailing, Hospitality,
Transport and Energy are sectors with > 10% of companies with a probability of default > 15%; 3. Implied by 5-year credit default swap based on median; Note: Based on top S&P Global 1200 companies; Sectors are based on GICS
definitions; Source: S&P Capital IQ; BCG ValueScience Center; BCG 26Additional perspectives on COVID-19
2021
Version
March
2021 2.0Version 2.0
US Vaccine sentiment Getting to the COVID-19 Finish Line: A Drama in 3 Acts Reimagining global health after the coronavirus
reserved.
reserved. BCG Executive
BCG Executive Perspectives
Perspectives 19 March19
updatedupdated
Seven lessons from the corporate frontlines Why the global economy is recovering faster than A Vaccination Strategy to Save Lives and Livelihoods
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expected
2021
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Boston Group.
Consulting
Consulting All rights
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As vaccines roll out, testing still matters What 12,000 employees have to say about the future of Designing resilience into global supply chains
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