Macro + FX Strategy Singapore MAS Preview: More Easing Needed To Aid Growth - United Overseas Bank

Page created by Karl Moreno
 
CONTINUE READING
Global Economics & Markets Research
Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com
URL: www.uob.com.sg/research

Macro + FX Strategy
Singapore MAS Preview: More Easing Needed To Aid Growth

Wednesday, 18 March 2020
                                  Highlights
                                        The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is slated to announce its monetary policy
                                         decision in April 2020. MAS previously reduced its S$NEER slope by an estimated 0.5% in
Barnabas Gan                             Oct 2019, while keeping other policy parameters unchanged.
Economist                               We identify three drivers that could lead to another round of monetary easing in the
Barnabas.GanSC@uobgroup.com
                                         upcoming meeting, seen from (1) lower interest rates globally, (2) the softness in the
Peter Chia                               S$NEER below its mid-point and (3) a likelihood of a persistent negative output gap in 2020.
Senior FX Strategist
Peter.ChiaCS@uobgroup.com               We reiterate our base case call for MAS to ease policy to neutral, down from a currently
                                         perceived +0.5% appreciation slope. This is predicated on the recent deterioration in
                                         economic fundamentals. There is also a growing risk that S$NEER band could be re-centred
                                         lower.
                                        There is an increasing risk for the MAS to announce an off-cycle meeting before its April
                                         schedule, although this is not our base case. The last time MAS did an off-cycle monetary
                                         policy meeting was back in January 2015, where policy-makers reduced the slope while
                                         keeping other policy parameters unchanged.

                                  Three Drivers That Could Signal Monetary Easing
                                  Given that the objective for the Monetary Authority of Singapore is to “maintain price stability
                                  conducive to sustained growth of the economy”, we see three drivers that could signal a potential
                                  MAS monetary easing in April 2020, namely from the (1) lower interest rates globally, (2) the
                                  softness in the S$NEER below its mid-point and (3) a likelihood of a persistent negative output
                                  gap in 2020.

                                                            Chart 1: Benchmark Rate Cuts Seen Year-To-Date

                                      Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research

Singapore MAS Preview: More Easing Needed To Aid Growth
Wednesday, 18 March 2020
1|P a g e
First, MAS may see a growing impetus to ease monetary policy conditions in tandem with lower
                                       interest rates globally. Since the start of this year, the US Federal Reserve has reduced its
                                       Federal Funds Target Rate (FFTR) by a total of 150 basis points to a range of 0.0% - 0.25%.
                                       Other developed central banks that cut rates also included RBNZ (-75bps since YTD), BOE (-
                                       50bps) and RBA (-25bps). Over in Asia, Singapore’s key trading partners including Hong Kong
                                       (HKMA: -114bps), Malaysia (BNM: -50bps), Thailand (BOT: -25bps), Indonesia (BI: -25bps) and
                                       Philippines (BSP: -25bps) have also cut rates since the start of 2020.

                                       Second, the softness in the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) in the
                                       recent weeks below its mid-point reflects a relative pullback in investor risk appetite on concerns
                                       over the COVID-19 outbreak and falling oil prices. As we flagged in our previous MAS meeting
                                       preview report1, we had observed that a majority of easing moves were done when the S$NEER
                                       was below the estimated mid-point (specifically in October 2008, October 2011, January 2015,
                                       October 2015 and April 2016). The recent softening of the S$NEER below mid-point could also
                                       suggest that market players have guided the S$NEER lower in anticipation of such monetary
                                       easing move into April 2020. According to our in-house S$NEER model, the S$NEER has
                                       weakened to -0.4% from its mid-point at the time of writing (18 March 2020), down from a strong
                                       +1.8% from mid-point at the end of January 2020.

                                                    Chart 2: S$NEER Has Softened To Below Mid-Point In March 2020

                                        Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research

                                       Note that the fall in the S$NEER also coincided with the MAS statement on 5 th February which
                                       cited that there is “sufficient room within the policy band to accommodate an easing of the
                                       S$NEER in line with the weakening economic conditions”. With the fall of the S$NEER in the
                                       recent weeks, the room for further weakness in the S$NEER is comparatively limited versus
                                       when the S$NEER is “fluctuating near the upper bound of the policy band” after October 2019.
                                       As such, an easing of monetary policy may be on the cards in April 2020, in order to allow the
                                       S$NEER to weaken further in line with the weaker economic outlook.

                                       Third, the expected growth headwinds into 2020 should suggest a persistent negative output gap
                                       for Singapore in the year ahead. Singapore’s output gap, defined as the difference between the
                                       actual GDP growth and potential GDP growth, persisted in negative territory for five quarters into
                                       4Q19. A negative output gap also indicates the presence of growth slack in the economy, and
                                       that inflation will likely be kept in check as well.

1
    United Overseas Bank, Singapore Focus: A Global Slowdown, An Easing MAS?, 7 October 2019

Singapore MAS Preview: More Easing Needed To Aid Growth
Wednesday, 18 March 2020
2|P a g e
Chart 3: Negative Output Gap Persists, May Worsen Into 1Q20

                                          Source: Macrobond, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research

                                         On the same note, given that the MAS monetary policy is forward looking and focused on the
                                         medium term economic outlook, a monetary easing move in April 2020 may indicate policy-
                                         makers’ reduced optimism on Singapore’s economic outlook into the four to six quarters ahead.
                                         The MAS noted that their econometric models suggest that the “peak impact of a change in
                                         exchange rate policy on the economy occurs only after four to six quarters,” which is then cited
                                         as the main reason why monetary policy formulation needs to be forward-looking2.

                                         MAS Likely To Ease Policy Slope To Neutral
                                         The negative output gap which is expected to worsen into the start of 2020 will likely persuade
                                         the MAS to ease monetary policy at the April meeting. We reiterate our base case call for MAS
                                         to ease policy to neutral, down from a currently perceived +0.5% appreciation slope, while
                                         keeping the width of the policy band and the level at which it is centred unchanged. This
                                         is predicated on the recent deterioration in Singapore-centric economic fundamentals, including
                                         the contraction in manufacturing PMI (Feb 2020) and retail sales (Jan 2020) on the back of rising
                                         global recession risk. There is also a growing risk that MAS could re-centre the S$NEER band
                                         lower as a signal that a looser monetary policy is needed to cushion both growth and inflation
                                         risks this year.

                                         Meanwhile, in the light of several unscheduled meetings by key central banks and their moves
                                         to loosen their respective monetary policies, there is an increasing possibility for MAS to join the
                                         bandwagon and announce an off-cycle meeting before its April schedule. The last time MAS did
                                         an off-cycle monetary policy meeting was back in January 2015, where policy-makers reduced
                                         the slope while keeping the rest of its policy parameters unchanged. Back in January 2015, the
                                         MAS cited that the inflation outlook since its October 2014 monetary policy statement has “shifted
                                         significantly” given the rapid decline in global oil prices amid weaker prospects for global demand.
                                         We observe that current circumstances have some similarities to-date, given that oil prices have
                                         plummeted by over 50% from January 2020’s high of US$68.9/bbl to March’s US$30~/bbl. Global
                                         economic prospects are similarly dim as well, seen from the exacerbation in COVID-19 concerns,
                                         while the recent announcement by Malaysia to restrict inbound and outgoing human traffic at its
                                         borders effective 18 – 31 March will likely affect foreign labour supply into Singapore and add to
                                         downside risk to growth prospects in 1Q20. Should an off-cycle meeting occur, our call for MAS
                                         remains identical to the above-mentioned base case.

2
    Monetary Authority of Singapore, how does MAS formulate its monetary policy? Oct 2018

Singapore MAS Preview: More Easing Needed To Aid Growth
Wednesday, 18 March 2020
3|P a g e
USD/SGD To Be Sticky Above 1.40 In 1H20
                                  The SGD has weakened to a 3-year low of 1.42 against the USD. The quick turnabout from 1.35
                                  at the turn of the year reflects the sudden deterioration of Singapore’s growth and inflation outlook
                                  brought about by the COVID-19 outbreak. Trading under the midpoint, the S$NEER has also
                                  largely priced in a lowering of the policy slope to neutral in the upcoming MAS meeting in April,
                                  while keep other parameters unchanged. In a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, it is likely
                                  the S$NEER will stay pinned below the midpoint in the coming few months. That said, in keeping
                                  pace with expected weakness of most of its trading peers against the USD, we can expect a
                                  further slide in SGD to 1.43 /USD in 2Q20. After which, we expect a modest growth recovery in
                                  2H20 as the COVID-19 outbreak shows signs of getting under control, with USD/SGD point
                                  forecasts at 1.41 in 3Q20, 1.40 in 4Q20 and 1.38 in 1Q21. A risk to our updated set of forecasts
                                  is a more aggressive easing by MAS, either off cycle or at its scheduled April meeting, which
                                  involve a one-off re-centring of the S$NEER lower. Such a move would put upside risks to our
                                  USD/SGD forecasts, especially in the immediate quarter (2Q20).

Singapore MAS Preview: More Easing Needed To Aid Growth
Wednesday, 18 March 2020
4|P a g e
Disclaimer
This publication is strictly for informational purposes only and shall not be transmitted, disclosed, copied or relied upon by any person for whatever
purpose, and is also not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to its laws
or regulations. This publication is not an offer, recommendation, solicitation or advice to buy or sell any investment product/securities/instruments.
Nothing in this publication constitutes accounting, legal, regulatory, tax, financial or other advice. Please consult your own professional advisors about
the suitability of any investment product/securities/ instruments for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.

The information contained in this publication is based on certain assumptions and analysis of publicly available information and reflects prevailing
conditions as of the date of the publication. Any opinions, projections and other forward-looking statements regarding future events or performance
of, including but not limited to, countries, markets or companies are not necessarily indicative of, and may differ from actual events or results. The
views expressed within this publication are solely those of the author’s and are independent of the actual trading positions of United Overseas Bank
Limited, its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, officers and employees (“UOB Group”). Views expressed reflect the author’s judgment as at the date of
this publication and are subject to change.

UOB Group may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in the securities/instruments mentioned in the publication. UOB
Group may have also issued other reports, publications or documents expressing views which are different from those stated in this publication.
Although every reasonable care has been taken to ensure the accuracy, completeness and objectivity of the information contained in this publication,
UOB Group makes no representation or warranty, whether express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness and objectivity and accept no
responsibility or liability relating to any losses or damages howsoever suffered by any person arising from any reliance on the views expressed or
information in this publication.

Singapore MAS Preview: More Easing Needed To Aid Growth
Wednesday, 18 March 2020
5|P a g e
You can also read