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ISSUE 6 - DECEMBER 2020

 Growth vs Value - The Big Debate
   READ THE ARTICLE

     ALSO IN THIS ISSUE

                  Jet2 Ready for                A comeback for
                  Lift Off                      cyclical sectors?
                      READ THE ARTICLE
                                                READ THE ARTICLE
MARKET INSIGHT

BARGAIN HUNTING?
JAMES ROWBURY | INVESTMENT RESEARCH COORDINATOR

IN THIS ISSUE

            STOCK FOCUS                          At last, we can see the light          equipment used to make toys and
            Jet2 Ready for Lift Off              at the end of the tunnel. Last         the furniture in its office, while
                                                 month’s vaccine news offered           additional value would allow for
               READ THE ARTICLE
                                                 fresh hope to businesses               key financial measurables: revenue,
                                                 struggling to battle rising costs      profit margins and growth
                                                 and a non-existent customer            prospects.
           INSIGHT                               base. It has also seen a change
           Growth vs Value: The                  in investor sentiment.                 Yet, in today’s world it is more
           Great Debate                                                                 nuanced to measure the intangible
                                                 On the day Pfizer announced            assets that are becoming so
              READ THE ARTICLE                   a successful outcome in its            important to a company’s success.
                                                 Coronavirus vaccine trial, stock       How do you value Facebook’s
                                                 markets surged in places that          data, Disney’s brand power, or
            TOPIC OF THE MONTH                   had previously been unloved.           Amazon’s logistics technology?
            A Comeback for Cyclical              So-called value stocks – those         You certainly can’t crunch these
            Sectors?                             with a low share price relative to     numbers in the annual report.
                                                 their annual earnings or value of      Critics of these asset-light growth
               READ THE ARTICLE                  assets – saw their shares rise, in a   stocks would, not unreasonably,
                                                 bet that the traditional economy       argue that investors are placing too
                                                 (energy, consumer goods, leisure)      much value on that which we can’t
                                                 will bounce back to its previous       see, leading to share prices being
                                                 stature (See: Jet2 Ready for Lift      at eye-watering multiples to their
                                                 Off). That said, the growth stories    present earnings.
OPENING HOURS
                                                 (technology and healthcare) that
Monday–Friday, 08:00–17:00
                                                 have been the winners of the           In previous issues of this
GIVE FEEDBACK                                    pandemic saw just a meagre rise        publication, we have pondered the
publications@redmayne.co.uk                      on the day, lending very little of     idea of a market bubble forming.
                                                 their performance to the prevailing    The Amazons of the world surely
HEAD OFFICE
                                                 economic backdrop.                     look expensive on paper, but
0113 243 6941
                                                                                        investors have remained convinced
FOR MORE DETAILS                                 This ‘rotation’ of capital has been    they will continue this level of
redmayne.co.uk                                   long awaited by those who take         growth for the next decade and
                                                 comfort in the traditional valuation   beyond. With attention turning to
                                                 models. These financial rules are      the return of the ‘old economy’, we
                                                 entrenched by decades of stock         ask: does the sentiment change in
                                                 market investment analysis, but we     markets have legs, or is this just a
RISK WARNING                                     think investors need to recognise      blip in the unstoppable juggernaut
Investments and income arising from              the changes going on in the            that is growth stocks? Do market
them can fall as well as rise in value.          markets (See: Growth vs Value;         cycles still exist? (See A comeback
Past performance and forecasts are not           The Great Debate). Despite             for cyclical sectors?).
reliable indicators of future results and        being a logical method, valuation
performance. There is an extra risk of           is no longer just a measure of the
losing money when shares are bought              sum of the parts, AKA tangible
in some smaller companies. Redmayne              assets. Traditional companies,
Bentley has taken steps to ensure the            for example a toy manufacturer,
accuracy of the information provided.            would be valued on the land
                                                 value of its factories, the factory

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       CELEBRATING 145 YEARS | ESTABLISHED1875
MARKET INSIGHT

STOCK FOCUS
JET2 READY FOR LIFT OFF

The Travel and Leisure sector is very much a race to                  recovery. On 11th November, the company announced its
the bottom: who can charge the least per seat? Who can                tenth operating location to be Bristol Airport – operational
build hotels most quickly in the newest, most in-demand               from 1st April 2021, this will enhance its customer base in
locations? Who provides the best value for money?                     the South West of England. The company is displaying a
Overall, it is a fiercely competitive industry with high              reasonable liquidity position; from the first half of 2020 to
fixed costs which has caused the sector to struggle during            November 15th, the company’s cash was declining by around
the Coronavirus pandemic.                                             £50m per month. Therefore, assuming earnings do not add
                                                                      to the cash position, this provides an estimated cash liquidity
Limitations on international travel and consumers being less          period of 12 months. Jet2 is staying ahead of the competition
willing to take the risk of travelling both hurt the ailing sector.   by not following the crowd. Both Ryanair and easyJet have
While the airline industry has taken its fair share of punches        introduced extra costs for travellers wishing to take a second
from the pandemic, it is important to keep in mind its struggles      item of luggage on-board, a decision that will likely anger
before the pandemic even began - Coronavirus is only hurting          passengers, if not surprise them. Jet2, on the other hand, will
them further.                                                         keep this free of charge. Some will argue that from a business
                                                                      point of view this does not make sense, especially given the
The introduction of vaccines, the lifting of national lockdowns       lack of revenue during the pandemic. However, given that low-
and more lenient tiered systems are expected to cause a               cost airlines are known for their cheeky additional costs, this is
reversal in this trend as pent-up demand causes a surge in            likely to be welcomed by many, helping Jet2 secure as much of
bookings. Of the companies that may benefit from this is Jet2,        the post-pandemic rush as possible.
the British airline company known for its cheap fares. Shares
in Jet2 are up 366% since their March low of £305.80 per              With people locked into their homes for months on end, and
share, an astonishing feat, outperforming even a significant          travel restrictions reducing the reasons for people to take
portion of technology stocks over the same period. Recently,          holidays away from work, the pent-up demand is expected
the company reported an operating loss of £111.2m in the first        to be immensely high. The savings from a reduction in
half of 2020 which is indicative of the fall in demand for flights    commuting costs may leave some with a nice pot of money,
and holidays. The firm, however, is still displaying a strong         with which international travel may be the first port of call.
financial position with cash of c£632m, which puts it in a good       People may wish to travel to multiple destinations while
position to capitalise on the inevitable resurgence in air travel.    maxing out their annual leave from work and will look towards
                                                                      budget airlines such as Jet2 to maximise their value for
On 2nd December, it was announced that the UK was the first           money.
country globally to approve the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine
for widespread rollout. Subsequently, the UK purchased 40             Please note that this communication is for information only and
million doses of the vaccine, which displays a 95% efficacy           does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the shares of the
following two doses. Jet2 is adopting growth strategies which         investments mentioned.
will position it strongly for the expected post-Coronavirus

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       CELEBRATING 145 YEARS | ESTABLISHED1875
MARKET INSIGHT

INSIGHT
GROWTH VS VALUE
– THE GREAT DEBATE

The gap in performance between                            and agile, often in the ‘growth’              winning individual races, it is about
growth and value over the past                            category, continuing to flourish              winning the overall event; endurance,
ten years has been stark. Growth                          despite the severe headwinds.                 therefore, is key.
stocks have far outperformed their
value counterparts, and, in recent                        This is not to say that value investors       While growth investing has long been
years, the gap has only widened.                          have always lost out - there have been        a strategy for many investors, it started
The Coronavirus pandemic has                              certain timeframes within the past ten        to gain significant traction after the
caused a significant rift between                         years where the style has had its day,        2008/09 financial crisis, when new age
the two strategies, with stocks in                        but a view that perhaps best sums up          technology companies started to show
sectors most prone to being labelled                      the debate, at least in the long term,        explosive growth and, unlike during the
‘value’ (travel & leisure and airlines)                   comes from legendary UK-based quality         dot-com bubble, crucial profitability.
remaining slumped back, far away                          growth investor Terry Smith. Smith has,       This rise in the popularity of growth
from their all-time highs, while those                    on many occasions, likened investing          investing, coinciding with the growth
companies who remain innovative                           to the Tour de France - it is not about       of tech companies, meant that the

                                                          S&P 500 VALUE VS GROWTH
    400
                                                               S&P 500 Growth Index        S&P 500 Value Index

    350

    300

    250

    200

    150

    100

    50

      0
     31/12/10        31/12/11          31/12/12     31/12/13       31/12/14    31/12/15   31/12/16    31/12/17   31/12/18    31/12/19 30/09/20

                                                                                                                             Source: Redmayne Bentley
                                                         Figure 1 – S&P 500 Growth index vs S&P 500 Value Index over a 10yr period

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          CELEBRATING 145 YEARS | ESTABLISHED1875
MARKET INSIGHT

                                                                                              aspects that investors will want to keep
                                                                                              in mind. Firstly, while the vaccine news
                                                                                              is positive, both from a general health,
                                                                                              economic and business point of view,
                                                                                              mass vaccinations will likely take some
                                                                                              time. While preliminary comments from
                                                                                              many governments worldwide seem
                                                                                              to suggest that a vaccine will be rolled
                                                                                              out by the end of this year, this is only
                                                                                              likely to include those at particular risk
                                                                                              of death from the virus, which generally
                                                                                              encompasses those in the over 75 age
                                                                                              category. While this will be an important
                                                                                              step, those over the age of 75 are unlikely
                                                                                              to kick start the economic recovery
                                                                                              given their reduced level of consumer
                                                                                              spending when compared to those in
                                                                                              the 20-65 age category. This will mean
                                                                                              that many businesses will likely have to
                                                                                              wait until late 2021 until demand fully
                                                                                              returns, however, with many stocks at
information technology sector started            RECENT TRENDS                                all-time highs, the gap between business
to become increasingly important to              Despite the gap in performance               performance and investor expectation
the stock market as a whole. The sector          continuing to widen from the March           continues to widen and prove costly in
started to increase its weighting within         market lows, recent trends would seem        the short-term.
important global indexes such as the             to suggest that value is starting to
S&P 500 and the MSCI World, with                 make something of a comeback. The              “...many businesses will likely
IT now by far the largest sector in both         last two weeks have seen a (at present)
                                                                                                  have to wait until late 2021
indexes, standing at 27.6% and 21.63%,           short-term rotation into cyclical sectors
respectively.                                    and by association, value, helping the            until demand fully returns,
                                                 industrials-heavy Dow Jones Index               however, with many stocks at
For many new entrants into the investor          reach an all-time high of 30,000. This         all-time highs, the gap between
community, however, value investing              is of course due to the recent vaccine             business performance and
seems the logical choice. The eternal            breakthroughs from three separate              investor expectation continues
phrase ‘buy low, sell high’ makes sense          firms, which have spurred hopes of a
                                                                                                  to widen and prove costly in
on paper – purchase an asset below its           full economic recovery, sending those
intrinsic value and sell when it reaches         stocks that have been most affected by                 the short-term...”
or exceeds that value. This is ‘Value            the COVID-19 pandemic higher and
Investing 101’ but it fails to address the       those companies that have benefited          Secondly, many of the sectors in which
issue of why the price of the asset is so        most from the outbreak, such as Zoom,        you tend to find value stocks are facing
low. In many cases, assets are priced            lower, as changing circumstances force       significant structural headwinds going
below their intrinsic value for a reason;        investors to re-evaluate which sectors       forward. The energy sector, an area that
in essence, it’s not cheap by chance,            offer the best short/medium term upside      has suffered greatly due to the significant
it’s cheap because it deserves to be             potential.                                   reduction in oil prices, is facing a
and investors believe that the value of                                                       fundamental shift away from traditional
the assets may fall in the future. The           THE GREAT VALUE ROTATION?                    sources such as oil and gas and towards
strategy, despite maintaining a cult-like        This then poses the question of whether      renewable sources such as solar and
following to this day, has slowly begun to       value will continue to underperform          wind. The financial services sector, while
fall out of favour over the past ten years,      its growth counterparts or whether the       not facing quite the same structural
with investors attracted to the far higher       recent uplift is indicative of a longer-     change as the energy sector, is also
returns of growth stocks. This has, in           term style rotation? With the recent         battling with an increased regulatory
part, come down to a more favourable             vaccine news proving a much-needed           framework, especially in Europe, which
macroeconomic environment for the                short-term uplift to value stocks, it is     effectively helps to limit their upside
typical growth sectors, with low interest        likely that we may continue to see a short   potential. Such headwinds will likely,
rates providing cheap debt to further            and perhaps even medium-term boost           in effect, push investors towards assets
their expansion opportunities and fewer          to those cyclical sectors as economies       better positioned for the future and those
regulatory hurdles providing a more              start to open up thanks to immunised         facing structural tailwinds with regards
favourable business environment than             populations.                                 to the products they sell and or markets
traditional value sectors, reducing costs                                                     they tap into, in effect, growth stocks.
and decreasing barriers to entry.                However, it is worth mentioning two key

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MARKET INSIGHT

TOPIC OF THE
MONTH
A COMEBACK FOR CYCLICAL SECTORS?

                                         REAL ESTATE                                      CONSUMER
                                                                                          CYCLICALS

                                                            CYCLICAL
                                                             STOCKS
                   CONSTRUCTION                                                                              FINANCIAL
                                                                                                              SERVICES

                                                                       BASIC
                                                                     MATERIALS

Cyclical stocks have been                              such as technology and healthcare,         recovery in 2021 continues to grow,
predominantly depressed this year                      have performed significantly better.       energy, real estate and industrials are
amid the Coronavirus crisis, with                                                                 starting to look more attractive based
profits taking a large hit as travel and               However, following promising               on earnings expectations. According to
face-to-face meetings came to a near                   Coronavirus vaccine news, those sectors    Credit Suisse, the group is now expected
halt. Travel and leisure, real estate,                 more sensitive to economic cycles, have    to deliver a rise in profit growth next
energy, and industrials traded lower                   jumped as investors begin to shift their   year, with projections that cyclical
in 2020, while sectors that are less                   money away from high-flying tech           sectors could report more than 65%
dependent on economic conditions,                      stocks. As optimism over an economic       earnings growth in 2021.

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MARKET INSIGHT

The performance of markets in                    both sustainable and resilient in the        industry, pushing it into hibernation.
recent days has focused on the so-               long-term. Worldwide lockdowns               Since March, the focus for the sector
called ‘value rotation’, with cyclical           dramatically reduced the demand for          has been to survive rather than to thrive,
sectors outperforming defensive ones.            oil and gas but provided a significant       forcing many companies to reassess
Insurance, energy, and banks have                boost for renewables. Following a sharp      and reshape their business models in
recently been the best performers                drop in fuel prices, renewable energy        order to cope and recover during such
globally, up 21.1%, 16% and 16.7%                companies became more competitive            challenging times. Analysts, however,
respectively. Firms in the pandemic-hit          with ever-falling renewables prices and      are becoming increasingly bullish on
leisure sector such as British Airways           fossil fuel companies now beginning          the sector, pinning hopes on a vaccine-
owner International Consolidates                 to turn towards wind and solar energy        fuelled recovery that will benefit the
Airlines Group and Cineworld have                sources. Furthermore, traditional forms      industry later in 2021 and into 2022.
seen their valuation surge by 50% or             of energy are likely to encounter further    Although travel is unlikely to return to
more over the last couple of weeks with          scrutiny following the election of Joe       normal levels until the vaccine is widely
companies such as Whitbread, TUI and             Biden, who placed climate change at          available, air travel and, subsequently,
Carnival also producing strong gains, up         the forefront of his campaign and has        the overall leisure sector, will pick up
more than 30%.                                   now encouraged five of the UK’s biggest      significantly, with travel potentially
                                                 energy companies to lobby Boris Johnson      seeing a 50% recovery by the second
Energy is usually one of the industries          to match his clean energy goals. Given       quarter of 2021. As progress towards
which benefits from a shift in sentiment,        that oil and gas companies are facing        Coronavirus vaccines is helping investors
however, since the Coronavirus                   tougher headwinds from regulations, and      look past the current frightening
pandemic, the energy industry has                from a shift in political capital invested   resurgence of infections, cyclical value is
started to undergo a structural change           to push forward green energy, a cyclical     very much likely to return to the beaten-
as many countries across the world               value into the sector, may be hard to        down travel and leisure sector.
use the pandemic as an opportunity               envisage.
to enact more green policies and shift                                                        Please note that investments and income
towards renewables. Initially, when              On the other hand, the Coronavirus           arising from them can fall as well as
the pandemic broke, there were fears             crisis is the most significant challenge     rise in value. This communication is for
that the inevitable economic recession           that the travel and leisure sector           information only and does not constitute a
would hinder efforts to move towards a           has faced in recent years, with              recommendation to buy or sell the shares of
carbon neutral future, however, the crisis       markets essentially unable to operate.       the investments mentioned.
has only underlined the importance               Government restrictions across the
of ensuring that the economy remains             globe have had a seismic effect on the

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