Market trends For week ending October 25, 2019 - Performance Foodservice
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market trends For week ending October 25, 2019
market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Produce
Market Overview
Salinas MARKET ALERT
The weather has been fairly normal for this time of year in the mid to • Broccoli – EXTREME
high 60’s. But we are expecting to be warm again next week in the high • Cauliflower – EXTREME
70’s to mid-80’s on the coast and warmer in the south valley. Adverse • Iceberg – EXTREME
weather continues to disrupt supply by reducing yields on various items. • Garlic- EXTREME
Due to the short supply and the market conditions associated with
• Melon (Cantaloupe/Honeydew):
these events, lettuce, romaine, broccoli, and cauliflower are EXTREME.
We are also seeing quality issues such as mildew and insect damage. EXTREME
• Peas (Sugar Snap and Snow) -
Quality is still the same. Iceberg has been packer brand all week due to EXTREME
either light weights, mildew or seeder. Romaine is either young and light • Romaine - EXTREME
has seeder or mildew. Green Leaf is okay with occasional fields having
issues. Huron will be starting this weekend with iceberg lettuce. We will WATCH LIST
have product being harvested in Huron and Salinas until Yuma starts • Anaheim Chili
around the week of Nov 5th.
• Florida Tomatoes
• Sweet Potatoes and Yams
Idaho Potatoes
This past week we had a serious early frost causing significant damage
to the remaining crop yet to be harvested. Wednesday 10/9 morning
and afternoon a cold front moved in from the north. During the
afternoon this front produced several inches of snow and extremely cold
weather. The nighttime air temperature low dipped down into the single GOOD BUYS
digits and the soil temp in the low 30’s to high 20’s. The potatoes left in Each week, we want to spotlight commodities
the ground were pulping as low as mid 20’s. The growers with potatoes based on how favorable prices, quality, and
left in the ground worked very long hours (16-24) hours a day to try and supply are in the market. Stay ahead of the
get as much harvested as possible before the cold front. The cold front trends and look to these good buys for their
still hovered through Friday morning with the low temperature being 17 stellar performance in the fields!
degrees and lower in some areas more north with one more day of low
20’s came in for Saturday evening. Commodity
Hard Squash – Acorn, Butternut, Kobocha
Most warehouses were running field run and packing product being Spaghetti
brought right in from the field during the freeze period. Most of the first
potatoes harvested put away are still going through the sweat process. Produce Expert Tip
Those first potatoes going through suberization (sweat) are still a week Roast it, blend it, bake it. There are so many
away from being completely ready to be packed for the fresh market. applications for hard squash. Try making a
This event of no field run available and the suberization process has soup or dicing it and roasting in stuffing, or as
created a bottleneck for production and short-term shortage of available
a simple side dish. The brisk weather is here,
product.
and squash is upon us!
SALINAS FORECAST
2
market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Produce (continued)
Apples & Pears Bananas
The market is steady. New crop Washington Fuji, Gala, Bananas are in a good supply. Quality is good with no issues
Golden Delicious, Granny Smith, and Red Delicious Apples to be expected in the near future. Plantains remain tight.
are available. Quality is excellent: fruit is crisp, crunchy, and
juicy. Sugar levels range from 14 to 18 Brix. Beans
Pears: Bartletts are in good supply. Bosc are limited. Fair EAST: Bean deals are extremely short in the east, pallet deals
supply of red pears. Asian pears have started. only. GA’s heat has affected yields on its new crop. With no
additional weather issues, we should be back into normal
Artichokes volumes in the next 2-3 weeks. Beans are available in VA
There is a lighter supply of artichokes available. Most of our where they expect to continue at least through this month.
volume this week is estimated to be 30s and 24s. Quality is With tighter volumes throughout, FOBs have an upward
excellent. Demand is good; prices are higher. pressure. Quality is fair and looking to improve given the
weather’s cooperation.
Arugula WEST: Beans remain snug on the west. Coastal CA
Supplies have started to tighten up rather rapidly, due to the production is limited but is expected to carry through October,
recent heatwave we have experienced in our valley. There’s weather permitting. Baja supply is currently on the light side
good demand, but the industry overall seems to be in light as well. The bean business is looking for the CA desert
supply, with quality related issues. We’re hoping supplies to begin in the next week or so to bridge any production
could be better by possibly by the second half of this week, gap. Mainland Mexico deals should come onboard around
weather permitting. November 1st.
Asparagus Berries:
Prices are weak; standard size supplies are more abundant Blackberries
than jumbo stocks. Quality is very good: stalks are straight Stocks have tightened a bit, but prices are stable. Quality is
and firm, while flavor is slightly bitter, yet grassy. very good: berries are deeply colored, juicy, and sweet. Sugar
levels range from 12 to 13 Brix.
Avocados
Avocado markets are split depending on size. 48’s and larger Blueberries
are steady to tight, as the fruit gets bigger, 60’s and smaller The market is unchanged. West Coast stocks are ample;
are weaker. The size curve of the new crop is much smaller Mexican supplies are starting to increase. Quality is very good:
than anticipated and the large sizes are very tight. Currently berries are plump, deep blue/black, and juicy. Sugar levels
there is a big difference in price between 60’s and 48’s. This range from 12 to 16 Brix.
size differential could last until December. The fruit continues
to be very clean and #2 grades are still only around 5% of the Raspberries
current crop. Prices are steady; domestic volume is high. Quality is very
good: berries are plump and juicy with mildly sweet flavor.
Sugar levels range from 13 to 14 Brix.
Strawberries
Prices are inching up. Although cooler nights are aiding quality
(creating firmer fruit), shorter days are preventing growers from
keeping pace with strong demand.
Bok Choy
All packs are in short supply all week.
Broccoli
Supplies continue to be light this week. The demand is very
good and with quality from the field causing lower yields, the
market will continue to go up.
3
market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Produce (continued)
Brussels Sprouts Eggplant
Expect to see the sprout market stay strong for the upcoming EAST: A couple northern growers still have product, but the
week; production will be slightly down, but there are no expected Eggplant production is moving south! Most areas north of
challenged with fill rates. GA are beginning to wind down where then the East will
shift to a FL/GA deal. There is plenty of product around with
Cantaloupe FOBs having a downward pressure. Quality is looking fair to
We are finished on the Westside and have transitioned to the adequate.
California and Arizona deserts, in the past 3-weeks there have WEST: In the West, the cooler weather has slowed production,
been some tropical storms in the regions which has cause but Fresno and CA’s Central Valley are still in the game.
some scarring and just not ideal growing conditions. Expect to California Dessert, Coachella Eggplant will be showing up any
see mostly a green cast and scarring. They will not be as nice day now and Mexico is bringing in some nice quality product
looking as the Westside fruit was just want you to be aware. through Nogales, showing an upward pressure in eggplant
The market is very tight as production is slow coming and will volume. FOBs looking steady and quality is superb.
probably stay that way until we finish there around the 3rd
week of November. English Cucumbers
The market is easing back and expected to stabilize. Mexico
Carrots will start light production the third week of October.
Supply and quality are good.
Fennel
Cauliflower Supply is slightly above demand. We will continue to see a majority
Weather conditions continue to affect plant growth, resulting in of production available by way of 18ct and 24ct throughout the
limited availability again this week. week. Quality remains strong with no issues to note.
Celery Garlic
Most shippers have lighter volume for celery in Salinas. Most EXTREME Domestic garlic yields are drastically down due to a
still have heavier volume of the larger sized 24’s. The market is percentage of plants that did not develop. We are also seeing
better, and quality is excellent. quality issues due to weather. Chinese garlic is becoming
very short in supply due to a US custom fee that will need
Cilantro to be paid, higher tariffs, and lower yields in their crop. The
Supplies are below normal this week. Chinese supply we are seeing has great quality; however, it
is expensive. Please be aware that you may see a shortage
Corn in supply in our domestic crop as well as increases in prices.
Markets are stable despite lighter supply out of New York and Please understand that quality of domestic product is average.
Michigan; we will see Georgia and Florida ramp up any time higher.
this week or next. Out west, California will be ramping up
for the fall crop, and Colorado will continue bringing market
prices down in the west.
Cucumbers
EAST: GA is building volume as more deals begin to come to
the table with nice product. Upward pressure on volumes are
projected for the next week. Florida will come into play by the
end of the month in a light way for its typical fall season. These
deals have allowed for a smooth transition from the deals in
NY and Eastern NC, which will wrap up over the next week.
WEST: In the West, Baja volumes have been light due to
the cool weather causing less supply than usual to finish off
the season; However, quality remains strong throughout. In
Nogales, more shippers from the Sonora area are starting
daily and there are more to come over the next 3 weeks. Early
picks here are light in color but should improve over the next
few weeks. FOBs looking to have a downward pressure.
4
market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Produce (continued)
Ginger Lettuce:
Chinese ginger markets are mixed, but quality is good. Also, Butter
product is available at higher costs from Brazil, Peru and There are lighter volumes on butter lettuce. We are continuing
Thailand. to see occasional irregular sizing, with some burn. Demand is
advancing along with market pricing.
Grapes
We are going full speed here in the Central Valley and will Green Leaf
continue with good volume through December, the overall Green Leaf production volumes are slightly below budget
crop looks good, and hopefully quality continues to stay good this week. There is occasional irregular sizing and fringe/wind
barring any crazy weather going forward. We are going on burn. Demand is slowly gaining. Market pricing is steadily
several different varieties of reds and greens as well as packing advancing.
snack packs.
Red Leaf
Green Cabbage Red leaf production volumes are about half of regular budget
Supplies are steady/fair this week. for the week. Demand has increased as market prices firm up
accordingly.
Red Cabbage
Supplies are steady/fair this week. Iceberg Lettuce
EXTREME Supply continues to be below budget. Salinas is
Green Onions starting to wind down. The forecast is for three more weeks
The green onion market is steady, with volume crossing from of light supply. The market is very active and looks like it will
Mexico being below average. This is due to some growers remain that way for the week.
losing acres to the hot humid summer they’ve had the past 8
weeks. Weather is changing with temps dropping to normal, Romaine
slowing growth down, keeping the market steady. EXTREME Romaine is slightly below budget for the next
couple of weeks. There is still occasional fringe/wind burn,
Honeydew insect pressure, twist, and seeders in the romaine products.
We are finished on the west side and northern California With some recent changes in temperatures, combined with
and have transitioned to the California and Arizona desert. reduced yields, we are seeing less industry supply available.
Honeydews were hit with the storms as well and there will be Market prices are rising due to strong demand.
scarring and sugar spots on the dews and they remain very
tight due to slow production, please be aware that they will
eat but they will not be real pretty. Mexico has started but they
are having lots of problems making sugar and they are still
crossing with low sugar so we will do our best to only ship
California and Arizona dews.
Jicama
Storage product available--will see blemishing due to the fact
it’s storage fruit. Good supply available.
Kale (green)
Supplies are fair this week.
Lemons
We are packing Dist. 2 (Coastal Regions) fruit and will be
harvesting through October. The overall color is good but you
will see some green as well due to the time of the year we are
gassing to bring on color but you will still see some green stem
end and blossom end, the fruit is on the firm side. We are in
full swing on our Dist 3 (Desert Region), the fruit looks good,
just on the smaller side peaking on 165’s and 140’s, fruit will
continue to size up as we go forward.
5
market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Produce (continued)
Romaine Hearts Parsley(Curly, Italian)
EXTREME Romaine is slightly below budget for the next couple Supplies and quality are good.
of weeks. There is still occasional fringe/wind burn, insect
pressure, twist, and seeders in the romaine products. With Green Pepper
some recent changes in temperatures, combined with reduced EAST: Volumes are shifting south with the majority coming
yields, we are seeing less industry supply available. Market from our SC and GA deals this week with few remaining bells
prices are rising due to strong demand. out of NC, MI, and NY. Larger peppers are on the tighter side
due to the heat on the new crops, but supply continues to be
Limes adequate. Quality is declining in the older production areas,
The market is level; supplies are adequate with 200-count and with the higher quality fruit coming out of our GA deals. Nicely
smaller fruit being the most plentiful. timed crop production out of Florida should begin at the end
of the month which will hopefully provide a nice and smooth
Napa transition. FOBs are looking steady out of East.
Supplies are fair/steady. WEST: Pepper availability is still looking solid throughout
California with several areas still in production. Mexico is
Onions looking to start up in the next 2-3 weeks with some bells.
NEW CROP ONIONS were also affected by the freeze and Quality is looking fair to good and FOBs are steady.
could stand to lose up to 5000 acres in the Treasure Valley
(the East Oregon / Idaho growing regions) *. They will also Jalapeños (Chiles)
struggle with overall supplies this year as yields are down as EAST: Our North-Eastern deals are still holding on by a thread
well. Washington is all but finished on new crop harvest and looking to wrap up their last bits of volume this week. The East
now most all will come from storage. Overall yields in both is now looking to GA for our product availability where light
Washington and Oregon are down and, in some areas, up supply is available until Plant City gets up and running around
to 25%. All of the Northwest locations including Washington, the 1st of November. FOBs are slightly escalated, and quality is
Eastern Oregon / Western Idaho are still producing very nice good.
finished quality, however profiles continue to be reported WEST: There are a few CA chilies available, but we are mainly
as smaller than many years past, with more Jumbos and looking toward our Mexico deals for supply. Our strongest
Mediums vs. Colossal and Super Colossal. Larger Onion volumes are out of Eastern Mexico crossing at McAllen where
markets once all storages are full and harvest is complete will quality reports are looking good. Sinaloa and Sonora will be
be very strong. Short term market conditions are good but bringing fruit through Nogales soon with an upward pressure in
look for increases as we progress into the holidays. volumes projected for mid- November
Oranges
Small oranges getting very tight as we move through the
season, please expect prices to continue to firm up on 88’s
and smaller both grades. We will continue through October
on Valencia’s also some Chilean navels are arriving as well
with mostly bigger sizes, the overall crop volume is of normal
volume size structure, peaking on 72’s , 56’s and then 88’s
The overall quality of the Valencia’s looks good now but fruit
will have a tinge of green and some heavier green due to
our extremely hot temperatures, with good internal juice and
sugars are 12-13 so eating good, and keep in mind they are
a Valencia that has been on the tree for about 15 months.
The re greening process and green that you see does not
mean that the fruit is not ripe, the tree basically is taking care
of next year’s crop that is on the tree and therefore this year’s
fruit starts to re green. We will start some New crop Navels
towards the end of next week. This year’s crop is projected
to be about 7% lighter than last year’s, which is not much
different so we will have a good run of sizes as we get started.
6
market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Produce (continued)
Mini Sweet Peppers Sugar Snap Peas
Baja’s production remains lighter, but we anticipate an EXTREME Due to the consistent battle with Mother Nature,
increase sometime this month. Weather in Eastern WA got volume is nonexistent.
colder over the weekend and that will end the season sooner
than originally thought. CA production has been steady so far Sweet Potatoes and Yams
this week but will decrease as farms move into 2nd picks. WATCH LIST The market on number ones is down
significantly but there is still quite a bit of pressure on the
Red & Yellow Bell Peppers jumbos and any large sizes. Reason for this is that our whole
EAST & WEST: Western Canada’s volume is lighter this week region didn’t have measurable rain fall for 10 weeks outside of
due to the cold temperatures. Expect a small uptick the one fast moving tropical storm... so this crop is small, but it is
following week and then a gradual decline in the numbers as nice clean quality. There will be a struggle for big sizes as the
the season comes to an end. Pepper volume of all color and season goes along. I think too there will be the most pressure
sizes are looking good out of Mexico coming through Nogales on this crop than of any we have had in years and that’s
with excellent quality. because there is no old season crop left to help w holiday
business. In most years the very large grower/packers will
Pineapple ship old crop up until at least Christmas. this year the pipeline
The market is low; stocks are ample. Quality is very good: was completely on empty. So, it should be interesting. The
sugar levels range from 13 to 16 Brix. 90ct/petite sizes will be plentiful and can already be had pretty
cheap.
Idaho Potatoes
Post-freeze damage assessments are still in progress, but
what we do know is that approximately 12,000 fresh potato
acres had yet to be harvested after the freeze event last
week here in Idaho. Approximately 12,000 acres that did
get harvested in a 48-72-hour window prior to the freeze
event were harvested in cold temps (35-38 degrees F) *. Of
those acres affected, the vast majority of them were Burbank
Russets.
Russet Burbanks remain pushed back to the 21st for any new
crop. Early estimates for this year’s crop are definitively lower,
but again assessments for losses and damage are still being
done at this time. Approximate numbers are for the state of
Idaho to be close to 4 Million sacks or hundred weight lower
than that of the 2018 crop year.
GOOD NEWS is the new crop REDS YELLOWS and
WHITE CHIPPING POTATOES are all coming from storage,
unaffected by the freeze event and through the sweat.
Shippers have really great quality and volumes this year and
we’re looking forward to a great season on those items.
Snow Peas
EXTREME Due to the consistent battle with Mother Nature,
volume is nonexistent.
Spinach (Bunched)
Supply has improved, and quality is fair to good.
Spinach (Baby)
Supply has improved, and quality is fair to good.
Spring Mix
The market is climbing; stocks will tighten through the
transition to Yuma in mid- November.
7
market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Produce (continued)
Yellow Squash/Zucchini Romas
EAST: Squash volume is relying on GA as all our northern deals Roma availability is at pallet quantity in the East out of TN and
are done for the season. Volume is looking fair out of GA due NC with slightly more volume out of Quincy. The Eastern Roma
to the prior heat and is expected to trend upward in the next situation will remain snug until our crop in Ruskin/Palmetto gets
7-10 days. GA’s quality is nice for Zucchini, but yellow squash going around November 1st. Quality of fruit still on the vines is
is on the fair side with its typical scuffing/scarring. Plant city fair. Expect FOBs to increase next week.
could be producing some volumes as early as this weekend.
WEST: Volumes are beginning to dwindle down as our CA Grapes/Cherries
deals are closing shop. The west has already transitioned Grape production is light as well in the East as we are
smoothly from a mostly CA deal to MX product. We are transitioning to our more southern crops. There are handfuls
expected to see some good production increases from Baja available remaining in our local deals in NC and TN and few in
and Mainland Mexico as more deals get underway. FOBs are Quincy but expect product volume to gradually start increasing
steady. Quality is looking great for both Zucchini and Yellow in our Ruskin/Palmetto deal in the next few weeks.
Squash
WEST/MEXICO
TOMATOES Rounds
California’s volumes has been light this week and beginning to
EAST taper off over the next 10-14 days as our remaining growers begin
Rounds to wrap up their crop. Baja will continue to work their existing fields
The Tomato transition time is well underway in the East as for their Vine Ripes until new acreage comes into play later this
production moves from our local deals back down to Florida for month. Eastern Mexico expects to pitch in some moderate supply
the Fall/Winter. VA has finished with their production; however, through the fall season as well. Barring weather, we should see
there is still a little product in our TN and NC locations which can a smooth transition from West to East. FOBs are steady with fair
stretch 1-2 more weeks, weather permitting. Supply is expected quality determined by the weather.
to be on the light side through the end of the month as we work
through this transitional period. Most of the growers in Quincy are Romas
up and running, but overall yields are on the lighter side with 13 Our Roma situation is looking light in volume out of the west as
consecutive days of 100+ degree heat! The Palmetto/Ruskin crop our crop has transitioned into the Nogales season. Volumes will
will begin the week of the 21st in a light way, with volume expected remain tight until Eastern Mexico picks up in early November.
to come by the 1st of November. Expect some upward pressure Expect an upward pressure on FOBs out of CA as supply
on FOBs. Quality remains excellent. tightens up. Quality remains to be fair.
Grapes
Cooler weather has slowed down the expected volume
increases out of Baja. Volumes out of Eastern Mexico are
projected to pick up over the next few weeks to help improve
availability. Quality is excellent with FOBs steady.
Watermelons
Prices are elevated; demand is strong. Overall supplies are
tight. Quality is average: sugar levels range from 11 to 12 Brix.
8
market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Beef, Veal & Lamb
Although coming in over the week prior, beef production last week was down 1.2% year-over-year, a common trend in recent
weeks. Packers appear content to produce beef at a slower rate from last year, with margins being ample and cattle inventories
manageable. The Choice boxed-beef market is seasonally rising and should continue to increase into November before trending
sideways (as usual) into year’s end. The beef 50s prices are attractive here, but seasonal upside potential is expected over the
coming weeks. Ribs, as well, will likely be rising sharply from here into late-November before peaking and heading lower.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Cattle (Steer) Increasing Short Lower
Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Decreasing Short Lower
Ground Beef 81/19 Decreasing Good Higher
Ground Chuck Decreasing Good Higher
109 Export Rib (ch) Increasing Good Higher
109 Export Rib (pr) Decreasing Good Higher
112a Ribeye (ch) Increasing Good Higher
112a Ribeye (pr) Decreasing Good Higher
114a Chuck , Shlder Cld(ch) Increasing Good Higher
116 Chuck (sel) Increasing Good Higher
116 Chuck (ch) Increasing Good Higher
116b Chuck Tender (ch) Decreasing Good Higher
120 Brisket (ch) Decreasing Good Higher
120a Brisket (ch) Decreasing Good Higher
121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Good Higher
121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) Increasing Good Higher
121e Cap & Wedge Decreasing Good Lower
167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) Decreasing Good Higher
168 Inside Round (ch) Increasing Good Higher
169 Top Round (ch) Decreasing Good Higher
171b Outside Round (ch) Increasing Good Higher
174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) Decreasing Good Higher
174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) Increasing Good Higher
180 0x1 Strip (ch) Decreasing Good Higher
180 0x1 Strip (pr) Decreasing Good Higher
184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) Decreasing Good Higher
184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) Decreasing Good Higher
184-3 Top Butt, bnls (ch) Increasing Good Higher
185a Sirloin Flap (ch) Decreasing Good Higher
185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) Increasing Good Higher
189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) Increasing Good Lower
189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) Increasing Good Higher
189a Tender (pr, heavy) Decreasing Good Higher
193 Flank Steak (ch) Decreasing Good Lower
50% Trimmings Increasing Good Lower
65% Trimmings Increasing Good Higher
75% Trimmings Steady Good Higher
85% Trimmings Increasing Short Higher
90% Trimmings Decreasing Short Higher
90% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Higher
95% Imported Beef (frz) Increasing Good Higher
Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Steady Good Higher
Veal Top Round (cap off) Steady Good Lower
9
market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Grains
World palm oil prices continue to be at a significant discount to soybean oil. Various countries are attempting to limit palm oil
use due to deforestation issues with increased palm oil output. This could swing more demand to soybean oil during the next
several months. That said, the upside price potential for soybean oil may be limited.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Soybeans, bushel Increasing Good Higher
Crude Soybean Oil, lb Increasing Good Higher
Soybean Meal, ton Increasing Good Lower
Corn, bushel Increasing Good Higher
Crude Corn Oil, lb Steady Good Higher
High Fructose Corn Syrup Steady Good Higher
Distillers Grain, Dry Increasing Good Higher
Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD Increasing Good Lower
HRW Wheat, bushel Increasing Good Lower
DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Decreasing Good Lower
Durum Wheat, bushel Increasing Short Higher
Pinto Beans, lb Increasing Good Higher
Black Beans, lb Increasing Good Lower
Rice, Long Grain, lb Steady Good Higher
Dairy
The cheese markets remain high with both block and barrel prices being above $2.00/lb., the first such occurrence since
November 2014. Spot butter prices found modest support since last week after flirting with hitting $2.00/lb. Per the USDA,
Q4 milk production is expected to be .7% better than last year. And, Q1 2020 milk output is forecasted to be 2% more than
2019 which would be the best year-over-year gain for any quarter since 2016. Better milk supplies and expectations of lack-
luster exports should influence cheese prices lower in the coming weeks. Butter prices can still seasonally fade as well.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Cheese Barrels (CME) Increasing Good Higher
Cheese Blocks (CME) Increasing Good Higher
American Cheese Increasing Good Higher
Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Increasing Good Higher
Mozzarella Cheese Increasing Good Higher
Provolone Cheese Steady Good Same
Parmesan Cheese Increasing Good Higher
Butter (CME) Increasing Good Lower
Nonfat Dry Milk Increasing Ample Higher
Whey, Dry Decreasing Good Lower
Class 1 Base Steady Good Higher
Class II Cream, heavy Decreasing Good Lower
Class III Milk (CME) Increasing Good Higher
Class IV Milk (CME) Increasing Good Higher
10market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Pork
Despite pork production being revised downward from last week, Monday’s hog harvest made up the difference and set a
new single day record for output. Last week’s 9.2% year-over-year increase for pork output is expected to keep the market
well supplied, but escalating exports could underpin prices despite the expanding supplies. Upside price risk for the bellies is
present, especially after seeing forward sales continue to be bought at premiums to the prevailing spot market. Ham prices,
as well, are likely to escalate in response to holiday demand.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Live Hogs Increasing Ample Lower
Sow Increasing Ample Lower
Belly (bacon) Decreasing Good Lower
Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Increasing Good Lower
Ham (20-23 lb) Increasing Good Higher
Ham (23-27 lb) Increasing Good Higher
Loin (bone in) Decreasing Good Lower
Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Decreasing Good Higher
Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Decreasing Good Lower
Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Increasing Good Lower
Picnic, untrmd Decreasing Good Lower
SS Picnic, smoker trm box Increasing Good Higher
42% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower
72% Trimmings Decreasing Good Lower
11market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Poultry
Weekly chicken harvests continue to accelerate, with slaughter for the week ending October 5th reportedly 4.7% larger
than last year. Bird weights typically peak in mid-October, but year-over-year increases are expected to persist, leaving RTC
production well above a year ago. The larger production schedules continue to pressure chicken prices, leaving breast meat
at the lowest price this time of year in more than two decades, but the wing markets continue to remain firm. However, look
for wing prices to trend downward from late-October into year’s end, but sharply higher prices usually occur leading up to the
Super Bowl and the NCAA March Madness tournaments.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Birds WOG-Nat Decreasing Good Lower
Wings (jumbo cut) Increasing Good Higher
Wing Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Higher
Breast, Bnless Skinless NE Increasing Good Lower
Breast, Bnless Skinless SE Decreasing Good Lower
Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Increasing Good Lower
Tenderloin Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Higher
Legs (whole) Decreasing Good Higher
Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Decreasing Good Higher
Thighs, Bone In Increasing Good Higher
Thighs, Boneless Decreasing Good Lower
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Increasing Good Higher
Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Steady Good Lower
Eggs
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Large Eggs (dozen) Steady Short Lower
Medium Eggs (dozen) Increasing Short Lower
Liquid Whole Eggs Steady Short Lower
Liquid Egg Whites Steady Short Lower
Liquid Egg Yolks Decreasing Short Lower
Egg Breaker Stock Central Increasing Short Lower
12market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Seafood
The snow crab markets remain expensive. This is despite solid snow crab imports. In August, the U.S. imported 3% more
snow crab than prior year. The Alaskan Bering Sea snow crab fishing season is underway. The 2019-20 quota is set at 34
million pounds, up 24% from the previous season and the largest in five years. Still, world snow crab supplies could remain
limited deep into 2020 which should temper any price downside.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Shrimp (16/20 frz) Steady Good Higher
Shrimp (61/70 frz) Steady Good Lower
Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Steady Good Higher
Snow Crab, frz Steady Good Higher
Tilapia Filet, frz Steady Good Lower
Cod Filet, frz Steady Good Lower
Tuna Yellowfin, frsh Steady Good Lower
Salmon Atlantic Filet, frsh Steady Good Lower
Pollock Filet, Alaska, frz Steady Good Higher
13market trends
WEek ending October 25, 2019
Paper and Plastic Products
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
WOOD PULP (PAPER)
NBSK- Paper napkin Steady Good Lower
42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Steady Good Lower
PLASTIC RESINS (PLASTIC, FOAM)
PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. Steady Good Lower
PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils Steady Good Lower
PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Steady Good Lower
Retail Price Change from Prior Month
Description Aug-19 July-19 June-19
Beef and Veal Decreasing Increasing Decreasing
Dairy Increasing Increasing Decreasing
Pork Decreasing Increasing Decreasing
Chicken Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing
Fresh Fish and Seafood Increasing Decreasing Decreasing
Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Decreasing Increasing Decreasing
Various Markets
Nearby Arabica coffee futures are down since last week and remain historically deflated. Solid Brazilian coffee production and
the continuation of the weakening real versus the greenback are two factors pushing prices downward. But, from a long-
term perspective, buying some coffee now makes sense.
Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year
Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Steady Good Higher
Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Steady Good Higher
Coffee lb ICE Decreasing Good Lower
Sugar lb ICE Increasing Ample Higher
Cocoa mt ICE Increasing Short Higher
Orange Juice lb ICE Decreasing Good Lower
Honey (clover) lb Steady Good Lower
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