MEGACITIES - BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES 2030 - A smarter world for a conscious society
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White Paper MEGACITIES – BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES 2030 A smarter world for a conscious society
Executive Summary ........................................................................................ 4
1. Introduction:
The role of megacities in a changing world .................................................. 6
2. Summary: Business Opportunities 2030
2.1 High performance polymers in a sustainable and smart world ............. 8
2.2 The impact on Celanese core markets .................................................... 9
3. Spotlight: Building & Living
Overview: Challenges and Opportunities .................................................... 11
3.1 Multi-local way of life ............................................................................. 12
3.2 Smarter living concepts ......................................................................... 15
3.3 Towards a sustainable city ..................................................................... 18
4. Spotlight: Energy & Supply
Overview: Challenges and Opportunities .................................................... 21
4.1 Urban supply ecosystems ...................................................................... 22
4.2 Smart energy shift .................................................................................. 26
4.3. Energy blackout prevention ................................................................... 29
5. Spotlight: Mobility & Infrastructure
Overview: Challenges and Opportunities .................................................... 31
5.1 E-mobility in advance ............................................................................. 32
5.2 Changing pattern of mobility.................................................................. 35
5.3 Smart traffic and logistics ...................................................................... 38
6. Spotlight: Health & Security
Overview: Challenges and Opportunities .................................................... 41
6.1 Personalized medicine and home care ................................................. 42
6.2 New concepts for public health ............................................................. 45
6.3 Preventing crime and terrorism ............................................................ 48
3
Executive Summary
The global trend towards urbanization is leading to an increasing number challenges of our future
of megacities with over ten million inhabitants in densely populated areas. megacities
Megacities are often characterized by housing shortages, collapsing
traffic systems, air pollution, lack of clean water and poor energy supply.
Advantages for the population on the other hand are working possibilities
or easy access to technical infrastructure (internet) and medical facilities.
These advantages are strong enough to boost the influx of the population
into the city districts – which again intensifies the problems as described.
Given this situation, megacities have an urgent need for solutions –and
to be specific: Sustainable solutions. Sustainability suggests itself because
of the ecological nature intrinsic to most of the problems: Air and water
pollution are having an impact on the quality of life and health that no
longer can be ignored. Scarcity of resources is driving the search for alter-
native energy sources. In all probability, megacities will have to solve such
problems in a shorter period of time than other regions around the world
and will therefore accelerate development towards sustainable solutions.
Scientific studies have recently confirmed the importance of megacities
for the global economy: They fuel their region’s economy because of the
faster growing urban middle class and function as experimentation fields
for new ideas.
Certainly, life in megacities will develop its own characteristics and
concepts in the fields of living, mobility, health and water/ energy supply.
And in some, perhaps even in most of the solutions, polymer materials
will play a role - beginning at the urgent need for biodegradable materials
through to highly specialized applications.
A multi-local way of life requires smarter living concepts. These include four major topics of change
new designs and operating concepts for mobile communication and en-
tertainment devices, lightweight and recyclable furniture to allow a more
flexible use of rooms, technology integrated in everyday objects and the
use of robotics in private households. The trends point to an increasing
demand for materials suited for smart home solutions on the one hand
– and recycled materials on the other hand. The sustainable city also
involves a gradual reduction in throwaway products.
The changing pattern of mobility promotes e-mobility, which itself leads
to the development of new energy storage and energy recovery technol-
ogies. As traffic in inner cities primarily needs smaller and more flexible
vehicles, long-distance transportation will have to deal with the ques-
tion of environmentally compatible mobility. Lightweight materials and
composites that provide a high degree of safety for drivers are becoming
an important enabler for the suitability of e-vehicles. The energy supply
infrastructure, smart traffic and logistics infrastructure will also lead to
a growing demand for advanced materials.
4
In most of the megacities, basic health services have to be improved.
Beyond that, personalized medicine and home care are among the
greatest challenges for ageing societies. Nano-optimized polymers play
an important role in the development of devices for personal medicine
including diagnosis, treatment and care. Due to their specific require-
ments, medical grade polymers could increasingly replace other materi-
als in medical care and even provide affordable substitutes for the public
medical market.
Not only the water and energy supply systems need a make-over; smart
grid infrastructures also have to be developed – often with the help of
advanced materials like polymers. Cradle-to-cradle orientation or water
and energy saving measures like home energy generation and smart
metering counteract rising energy prices. Polymers used in the fields of
energy and water supply fulfill demands in durability, resilience and high
resistance to corrosion and aggressive media.
To put it short, our empirical projections indicate: The development in
megacities will drive the change of polymers from basic into advanced
high-performance materials. In this regard, the polymer industry will be
part of future concepts that – hopefully - will improve life in megacities.
5
1. Introduction:
The role of megacities in a changing world
What are megacities?
Following the common definition megacities are metropolitan areas with definition
a total population of 10 million inhabitants. Currently the number has in-
creased to more than 20 cities that can be defined as megacities. Most of
the world’s largest cities are located in emerging world regions. Accord-
ing to forecasts, by 2025 Asia alone will have at least 10 megacities with
more than 20 million inhabitants, including Mumbai, India (33 million),
Shanghai, China (27 million), Karachi, Pakistan (26.5 million), Dhaka,
Bangladesh (26 million) and Jakarta, Indonesia (24.9 million people).
Urbanization is driving the emergence of megacities worldwide. For the
first time in 2010 the number of people living in urban areas exceeded
the number of people in rural areas. The UN forecasts that today‘s urban
population of 3.2 billion will rise to nearly 5 billion by 2030, when three
out of five people will live in cities. Surveys indicate that urban growth
over the next 25 years will concentrate on the least-urbanized develop-
ing countries. Thus most of the new megacities will emerge in Africa and
underdeveloped parts of Asia.
Global share of people living in cities from
1950 to 2050 (in%)
80
71 70
70
40
51
49
50
40
29 30
30
20
10
0
1950 2010 2050
Rural areas Urban areas
1: United Nations (2011): Bunge - Growing world - Annual report 2010
6
Why are megacities important for future business?
megacities as the major The scientific and public perspective on megacities has changed over the
economic driver last decades. Megacities are no longer solely seen as places of agglom-
eration of poverty and social problems but also as vital motors for the
economic and social development of emerging countries. Studies confirm
the importance of megacities for the global economy. Despite existing
problems, they are the experimentation field for new ideas, concepts and
solutions. Therefore megacities can be seen as accelerators of social,
technological and economic developments. In fact, the social structure of
megacities tends to develop a stable, urban middle class much faster than
rural or less urbanized societies. According to the United Nations, the
proportion of urban dwellers living in slums decreased from 47% to 37% in
the developing world between 1990 and 2005. Surveys show that megaci-
ties improve economic performance in their regions on a sustained basis.
It must be assumed that megacities will significantly increase in impor-
tance for the world economy in the coming decades.
This change of perception is the initial point for describing and explaining
business opportunities related to the future topic megacities in this White
Paper. Using strategic trend analysis to explore the dynamics of urban-
ization and megacity growth, we are able to identify the main challenges
related to fast growing metropolitan regions and to derive their impact on
the business field of plastic industries, on customers and stakeholders.
How to read trends?
Strategic trend analysis has been developed for long-term strategic
planning in enterprises and public organizations. The method sys-
tematically uses trend knowledge to deduce trend impact for busi-
ness relevant contexts, markets, customer behavior or technologies.
Trends are valid, empirically-based developments that resolve clear
directions. The following analysis points out various long- and mid-
term trends (2030+) related to different key aspects of megacities.
Every trend is described and projected under the assumption of con-
tinuing progress. Thus, it should be read as one feasible future devel-
opment, which will not be realized in precisely that shape. But it gives
a substantiated idea of how megacities are changing and challenging
the global economy in general and the plastics industry in specific.
72. Summary: Business Opportunities 2030
2.1 High performance polymers in a sustainable and smart world
The analysis of mid- and long-term trends illustrates how megacities are solutions from high-
accelerating the global change towards a sustainable and smart business performance polymers
environment. Due to the severe problems in megacities, technological and
organizational solutions will become established within a shorter period
of time compared with the stagnating or even decreasing urban areas in
western societies. The changing paradigms of mobility, living, supply and
security are challenging business, especially the target markets for sup-
pliers of high-performance polymers.
On the one hand polymers in their different forms provide a variety of
properties allowing new applications in the field of smart technologies.
Especially in the automotive sector, engineering thermoplastics are
replacing different sorts of metals. In fact, together with composites they
are the most important material for the construction of electric vehicles
of different types and classes. High-performance polymers will play an
important role in the improvement of converging technologies (NBIC). Due
to accelerating technological progress it is safe to conclude that there will
be a fast-growing demand for advanced materials such as conductive,
self-healing, self-cleaning or nano-optimized surfaces in the near future.
Polymers are increasingly developing into high-tech materials for the
automotive, electrical, medicine and energy sectors. To participate in this
growth field, suppliers of engineering polymers are compelled to intensify
their research and development and to open up their innovation activities
to different branches of high-tech industry.
On the other hand the changing consumption habits and growing aware- sustainable concepts highly
ness of environmental aspects will challenge plastics and the plastics needed
processing industries. The massive utilization of polymer materials for
packaging and articles of daily use provokes considerable criticism among
consumers and stakeholder groups. The picture of plastic waste pollut-
ing oceans and landscapes is increasingly dominating public discourse
on polymer materials. It is to be expected that in a mid-term perspective
this perception will lead to a considerable decrease in the use of plastics
for disposable products and packaging. At the same time, due to grow-
ing commodity prices plastic waste will become a sought-after recycling
material. Right now a prospering market for used polymer materials is
developing in the urban metropolises of the emerging countries. Industry
will develop innovative recycling procedures in order to improve the purity
of recycled resins. The growing importance of bioplastics and recyclability
of polymer materials is also closely related to sustainability and growing
commodity prices. In a long term perspective (2030+) cradle-to-cradle
product cycles will predominantly replace the traditional resource-inten-
sive value creation in the plastics industry.
82.2 The impact on Celanese core markets
Regarding the trends described under each spotlight, there is a specific
distance to Celanese’s current core markets which diminishes as trends
emerge. Trend analysis allows the deduction of a multitude of challenges
and opportunities for Celanese, the plastics and plastics processing in-
dustry and their core markets. development.
Buildung Mobility
& &
Living Towards a Changing Infrastructure
sustainable pattern
city of mobility
Smarter living E-mobility
concepts in advance
Multi-local Smart
way of life traffic and
logistics
CORE
MARKETS
Urban Personalized
supply medicine
ecosystems and home-care
Smart New concepts
energy for public
shift health
Energy Improvement
blackout of personal
Energy prevention security Health
& &
Supply Security
In a nutshell:
Trends related to building and living point to an increasing demand
for high-performance polymers and composite materials for smart
home solutions as well as for recyclable plastic products that are
used in private households. There is also a growing need for mate-
rials to improve convenience and flexibility for highly mobile users
and consumers. The change towards a sustainable city will lead to
an increasing demand for recycled plastics and gradual reduction of
plastic for packaging and throwaway products.
9Energy and supply infrastructures will be adapted to the require-
ments of a growing population, rising energy prices and changing en-
vironmental conditions. High-performance engineering polymers will
play an important role in the development of smart energy devices
and for the realization of smart grid infrastructures. Just like energy,
water supply and water treatment place demands on durability, resil-
ience and high resistance to corrosion and aggressive media.
Sustainability also drives the reorganization of urban traffic. E-mobility
is going to be one of the most important growth fields for polymers
in the automotive sector. Lightweight materials and composites that
provide a high degree of safety for drivers become an important
enabler for the suitability of e-vehicles. Also the energy supply in-
frastructure for the realization of e-mobility challenges innovations
in the plastics industry such as conductive composites for energetic
recovery. Smart traffic and logistic infrastructures will also lead to a
growing demand for advanced materials used in detection and control
devices.
According to the existing core markets, personalized medicine pro-
vides the biggest market potential in the health and safety sector.
Nano-optimized polymers for medical use are playing an important
role in the development of devices for personal medicine including
diagnosis, treatment and care. Due to the specific requirements,
medical grade polymers could increasingly replace other materials
in medical care. Again, high-performance materials are becoming a
driver for innovations in home care technologies. But also the pub-
lic medicine market - that is in search of affordable substitutes for
expensive medical materials – is opening up new opportunities for
plastics and plastics processing industries. The increasing need for
personal safety leads to growing demand for highly stable, flame-
resistant and impact-proof surfaces. Engineering polymers will also
be increasingly used in personal safety devices that come close to
what is required in smart and mobile technologies in general.
To summarize the results, it can be noted that the improvement of sus- conclusion
tainability and smart solutions is driving the change of polymers from
basic into advanced high-performance materials. This creates business
opportunities for enterprises with strong capacity for innovation and
adaptability on fast changing markets.
103. Spotlight: Building & Living
Overview: Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges for 2030
Challenges
New designs and operating concepts for mobile communication
for 2030
and entertainment devices
Lightweight and recyclable furniture, products for interior design
that allows quick and simple setup and dismantling
Development of new concepts for temporary living, a more
flexible use of rooms for different purposes and mobile homes
Next generation of smart materials to be developed: Intercon-
nection of smart devices, energy control, and grid
Invisibility of technologies: Additional functions become increas-
ingly integrated in everyday objects (e.g. furniture, walls, win-
dows, etc.)
Increasing use of robotics, augmented reality and artificial intel-
ligence in private households
Changing consumption habits towards a sustainable way of life;
changing plastics in daily life
Opportunities for plastic and polymer industries
Opportunities Increasing need for innovative plastics providing malleability;
composites for multi-functional surfaces (e.g. self-cleaning
surfaces)
Growing importance of recyclable plastics that make it possible
to develop more flexible interior designs
Increasing need for plastics and composites allowing a flexible
construction of temporary buildings, multi-functional interior
and design freedom
Innovations in polymers and composites for smart materials
such as shape memory polymers, electrostrictive polymers, poly-
mers for piezoelectric transduction, conductive polymers
Growing demand for functional surfaces, OLEDs, OFETs, conduc-
tive surfaces, touch sensitive surfaces
Plausible growing demand for technical engineering plastics for
electronic devices, optical polymers, polymeric optical fibers
Improving sustainable production and treatment: Improvement of
recycling plastics, bioplastics for fast-moving consumer goods
113.1 Multi-local way of life
Description
The gap between rural and urban populations is growing by the minute – geographic and demographic
and it will become even more dramatic in the future. Cities will develop into changes
conurbation areas while peripheral regions will become more and more
fragmented with a low density of population. As a consequence of this
movement, cities’ population structures will become much more hetero-
geneous than now – a tendency that will also intensify due to the fact that
employees have to become even more flexible regarding their work place.
They will have to split up their life space onto several places. Globalization
and the upcoming knowledge economy are changing the working world
dramatically. Due to their global deployment, employees have to be highly
flexible and mobile, ready to change their location whenever it is necessary.
Temporary living is becoming a lifestyle for a growing number of people. At
the same time the distinction between leisure and work time is vanishing.
Mobil devices and permanent internet access have lead to the development
of location-independent ways of working. Consequently, living space and
working space increasingly lose their significant functional meanings.
Key aspects
Growing cultural and ethnic heterogeneity
Conurbation in cities in accordance with fragmentation of peripheral
areas
Due to increasing flexibility the border between leisure and work
diminishes
Temporary living gains in importance
New living concepts develop
Drivers
Increasing demand for faster, cheaper and more flexible opportunities
for traveling and moving
Development of alternative ways to generate and use living space
(intermediate rent, communities, share models)
Availability of workplace outside of office buildings and free access to
internet
Mobility, flexibility and international experience are work requirements
Globalization and knowledge economy changes the way people work
and live
Strong increase in passenger volumes for flights between metropolises
12Indicators
The number of kilometers flown both nationally and internationally
has increased more than one and a half times within ten years. Air
traffic between the worlds´ metropolitan regions is a strong driver
for this development.
Passenger kilometer of international air transport
from 1997 until 2007 (in Billions)1
3000
2.545
2500
2.358
2.200
2.015
2000
1.779 1.736 1.739
1.716
1.614 1.657
1.583
1.512 1.522
1.468 1.430
1500
1.239 1.281
1.214 1.228
1.174
1.105 1.115
1000
500
0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
National Traffic International Traffic
1: National aeronautics and space research centre of the Federal Republic of Germany,
Air Transport Report 2008, page 40, December 2008
Impact
Strong expansion of travel infrastructure will lead to a high demand
for less polluting solutions and alternatives driven by renewable
resources
Growing demand for innovative solutions for flexible and temporary
living including relocation logistics
High need for absolute internet access will require a huge widening of
broadband network
Increasing demand for living space in the inner-city areas in adaption
to additional requirements (frequent change of renters, flexible use of
rooms for different purposes, etc.)
13Projection In 2030 the multi-local way of life has become widely established among changing living patterns young and well-educated people living in megacities. Their work require- ments define their level of mobility and flexibility because global busi- ness networks have strengthened. If necessary they can move from one city to another within hours. Many of the inner-city housing estates are owned by companies and temporary allocated to their employees. Despite web-based communication increasingly substituting business travel, the passenger volume between the global economic centers is still increasing. Within urban areas a highly extended travel infrastructure has developed in order to guarantee a dense transportation network. The mobility required leads to a completely new situation in living patterns. Instead of having only one living space in only one city people need several rooms to be locally in- dependent. Newly built communities, more intermediate rents, apartment share models and transportable homes solve the problem of scarce and expensive living space. But also communication has changed. Progress in communication technology allows a more ‘personal’ or ‘physical’ way to communicate and, consequently leads to twenty-four / seven availability. The great need for absolute internet access has been realized by a huge widening of the broadband network. 14
3.2 Smarter living concepts
Description
combining life and lifestyle The smart home trend is deeply connected with two major paradigms of
modern societies: Convenience and sustainability. The changing working
world means that the individual importance of leisure time is increasing.
Leisure time is seen as quality time reserved exclusively for recreation,
social and cultural activities and self-fulfillment. Smart home technolo-
gies aim at facilitating everyday life and automating bothersome routines.
Intelligent fridges or autonomous vacuum cleaners are just the start of the
change towards smart household management. Different functions like
heating and ventilation, locking or unlocking doors and windows or starting
washing machines can currently be controlled by one universal interface
(e.g. a smart phone). In the near future, different devices will be able to
communicate and interact autonomously. Connected to energy supply sys-
tems, smart home technologies reduce energy consumption and prevent
load peaks in the supply networks. A growing number of private house-
holds will feed self-produced energy into the public supply infrastructure.
Smart energy control appears as an enabling technology for smart grid
and decentralized supply of renewable energy.
Key aspects
Facilitation of daily routines by autonomous devices
Intelligent holistic household and energy management
Sustainable energy control, reduction of energy costs and emissions
Enabling smart grid and decentralized generation of energy
Drivers
Individualization and growing importance of leisure
Increasing awareness of sustainability and ecological sensibility
Strongly increasing energy prices
Progress in smart home technologies
15Indicators
By 2020 the worldwide performance of solar collectors will increase increase of renewable energy
to 166 GW in Europe, 110 GW in Asia, 100 GW in USA and 6 GW in the
rest of the world.
Anticipated solar collector performance
world wide until 2020 (in GW)1
180
166
160
140
120 110
100
100
80
60
40
20 6
0
Europe Asia USA Rest of the world
1: Roland Berger (2011)
Within 40 years the consumer price for residential energy has in-
creased tenfold from US $ 2.10 to 22.40 /million British thermal units.
U.S. consumer price estimates for residential energy from
1970 to 2010 (U.S. dollars per million British thermal units)2
30 23.06
22.05 22.40
21.49 21.56
25 19.16
20 14.21
12.62
11.87
10
7.46
5
2.10
0
1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2: EIA (2010)
16Impact
Establishment of autonomous household appliances that support
household management
Extensive replacement of housing materials in order to save or gen-
erate energy
Decentralization of energy generation – households will have the
technology to provide their own energy
Projection
developments in future In 2030 the widespread application of smart home technologies has
households changed everyday life for many people in megacities. Thanks to an intel-
ligent system, refrigerators are able to recognize the individual ingredients
they contain and detect any difference to a previously determined amount.
The digital information is sent to a selected grocery store which then
delivers the goods to the apartment. Similar processes are conceivable for
e.g. vacuum cleaners that always know the appropriate time to clean the
apartment or ovens that know the correct time and temperature to cook
the meal perfectly. Most inner city residential buildings apply coordinated
systems for household management, energy control and security that
respond to the residents’ individual needs and habits. If required, these
self-learning systems can also organize transportation and appointment
coordination. Additionally, the use of home robotics increases. Their ap-
plications range from entertainment over ancillary tasks to assistance in
geriatric care. Smart home applications are interconnected with energy
control systems optimizing power generation and consumption. In this
way they play a significant part in realizing a functioning, urban smart grid
infrastructure.
173.3 Towards a sustainable city
Description
Currently megacities are suffering from massive environmental problems, focus on sustainability
air and water pollution, increasing soil sealing and gridlocks. All theses
factors lead to a low quality of life, serious impairment to health and nega-
tive social consequences for urban citizens. To stand the pace in the global
competition among the world’s metropolises, megacities are forced to find
sustained solutions to their problems. Sustainable urban planning is based
on the inclusion of social, economical, ecological and political factors of
urban living into one holistic, future concept. From social and cultural
diversity over intact urban ecology to political participation, livable cities
combine many different aspects. Due to the specific situation in today’s
megacities, urban development will focus on sustainable traffic and supply
infrastructures and improvement in the quality of living. In the near future,
approaches like urban or vertical gardening and expansion of renewable
energy sources will gain in importance.
Key aspects
Solving serious environmental problems like air and water pollution
Improving quality of life for urban citizens and families
Maintaining social and cultural heterogeneity of cities
Implementation of sustainable energy shift
Realization of urban and vertical gardening
Supporting political participation and self-organizing structures
Drivers
Aggravation of existing social and environmental problems in
megacities
Global competition among metropolises and economic centers
Growing threat of social divide within various urban population groups
Preventing migration of well educated (brain drain) and middle class
families
Growing awareness of social and ecological matters among
consumers (e.g. LOHAS)
18Indicators
Within four years the number of buildings with green certification
constructed by the building company Hochtief multiplied three-fold
in the EU from 104 to 306 buildings
Hochtief: buildings with green building
certification 2008–20121
350
306
300
250 240
200 192
150 142
104
100
50
13 17 21 27
8 4 7 7 11
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EU (DGNB, LEED, BREE AM) Australia (Green Star) U.S. (LEED)
1: Hochtief – Annual Report (2012)
42% of the interviewees (altogether 1,057 persons) considered sus-
tainability of food production “a little” as their concern, 24% “a lot”
Concern of consumers for sustainability of
food production in the U.S. 2012 (in %)2
50
45 44
42
40
35
30 30
30
24
25 22
20
15
10
5 44
2012
0 2013
A lot A little None Not sure
2: Food Information Council Foundation/Food & Health Survey (2012)
19Impact
Living communities that unite generations
Establishment of alternative accommodation communities
Using new spaces for greening (like house facades) with limited
free space
Green spaces and parks for recreation and to increase quality of life
Gardening on and in houses/apartments
Local and private cultivation of sustenance
Development of sustainable building materials
Projection
Megacity 2030: The picture has changed completely. Despite the ever- overcoming past problems
increasing population, air pollution, dust exposure and water scarcity
are things of the past. Traffic is reorganized toward a major use of public
transportation. Hydrogen and electric engines drive the remaining indi-
vidual traffic. To counteract the massive soil sealing in urban areas a large
number of green spaces have been created inside and outside of the city
used for recreation as well as for agriculture. These urban gardens and
some major vertical garden buildings allow the city to subsist from self-
produced foodstuffs to some degree. Residential districts have developed
into family-friendly communities thanks to intergenerational support like
self-organized childcare, cooking and shopping services. At the same time
the sustainable megacity is highly technologized. Free internet access
across the city is available for every citizen. Almost all types of electronic
devices in public and private space are interconnected with the WWW in
order to optimize energy generation, supply and consumption. Also the
building industry has adjusted its structural measures to the current
challenges. Buildings are constructed with ‘green’ material, which has
become lighter to facilitate building higher to achieve more units. Simulta-
neously the materials can construct stronger buildings that can withstand
natural disasters e.g. earthquakes.
204. Spotlight: Energy & Supply
Overview: Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges for 2030
Challenges
Development, modernization and renovation of energy supply
for 2030
infrastructures: Enhancing security of supply
Smart grid infrastructure to be developed: Home energy genera-
tion and storage, smart metering and energy control
Improvement of sustainable water and wastewater manage-
ment: Water supply, water treatment and purification
Interconnection of different energy sources: Generation from
biomass, local water storage, solar energy, etc.
Opportunities for plastic and polymer industries
Opportunities Increasing use of high-performance polymers and composites
for energy supply infrastructures
Organic electronics as enabling technology for smart grid and
decentralized energy generation (e.g. organic photovoltaic, con-
ductive polymers, etc.)
Replacement of conventional pipeline and supply networks by
highly resistant, durable polymer systems; materials for filtra-
tion and purification
Increasing use of temperature and corrosion-resistant plastic
components in pump systems, micro generators, cogeneration
plants
214.1 Urban supply ecosystems
Description
Securing power and water supply is currently one of the main challenges water as a key aspect
in megacities. Especially poor districts but also middle class quarters are
confronted with energy and water scarcity, difficult access, fragile or obso-
lete supply infrastructures and poor water quality. Megacities are growing
much faster than supply infrastructures can be developed or upgraded.
In many cases there is a huge lack of investment which reinforces these
problems. Status quo: On average public expenditure in supply infrastruc-
ture will triple by 2030. Additionally, most of the world’s megacities are
located in regions where the groundwater level is low. Constant removal of
water leads to further lowering of the groundwater level. Meanwhile, local
authorities are intensifying their efforts to renew obsolete structures and
connect underdeveloped districts to the public supply networks. Waste-
water management has moved into the focus of reconstruction activities.
Innovative water purification technologies do not only help to improve
water quality but also to reduce waste dramatically. Therefore, ensuring
power and water supply is crucial to making urban infrastructures more
organized.
Key aspects
Construction and renewal of supply infrastructures
Innovative concepts and technologies to ensure and improve supply
Sustainable wastewater management and new purification
technologies
Improvement of (drinking) water quality
Ensuring reliability of energy and water supply
Increase of investments in supply infrastructure, components and
devices
Drivers
Water scarcity due to sinking groundwater levels in (most) urban areas
Rapid increase in power demand for industry and private households
Poor (drinking) water quality due to insufficient wastewater management
Lack of investments in urban supply infrastructure
22Indicators
increasing demands on water The world’s biggest megacities are located in regions with water
and energy supply scarcity. On top of that urbanization and industrialization increase the
demand for water.
Increasing Demand for Water:
Forecast 2005–2030 (in Billion cbm)1
400
350 338
320
300
300
250 243
200 181
178
150
117 124
100
100 89 92 89 85
80
72 68
54
50 40
28 21 23 21 28
12 6 9 7
0
China India Sub Sahara Rest of Asia North America Europe South America Middle East Oceania
Africa North Africa
Municipal domestic Industry Agriculture
1: KPMG (2012): Expect the Unexpected: Building business value in a changing world
From a global perspective the severe problems in megacities might
seem unsettling; however the water supply in urban areas is still
much better than in rural areas. The following chart shows the pro-
portion of different water sources in rural and urban areas in 2010.
Global Water Subbly:
Usage of Water Sources (in %)2
90
80
80
70
60 52
50
40
29
30
20 16 14
10 4 5
0
0
Pipes on Other improved Unimproved Surface water
Premises sources water sources
Urban regions Rural regions
2: WHO (2012): Progress on Drinking Water and Sanitation – 2012 Update
23Due to industrialization and urbanization, the electric power
consumption of the emerging countries is increasing dramatically.
By 2030 China will be the world’s biggest energy consumer.
Electric Power Consumption of World
Regions: Forecast 2030 (in Mtoe)3
700 655
600
500 470
390
400
300 282
246 248
200 164
120
86 74
100 62 52
0
EU Russia North South China India
America America
2008 2030 (prognosis)
3: World Energy Outlook (2010)
Impact
Extensive renewals and expansion lead to a growing demand for resil-
ient construction materials for supply networks
Strengthening of innovation activities in the field of waste and water
disposal, water purification and power generation
Increasing need for innovative interface technologies for energy and
water
Improvement of urban supply circuits leads to a significant reduction
of wastage
24Projection
megacities as their own Megacities develop concepts to solve their problems of supply insecurity.
ecosystem Beside the development of new sources, these concepts focus on sus-
tainable usage. In the field of water supply the cradle-to-cradle principle
has gained importance. Future megacities have closed water circuits
and highly efficient filter technologies to transform wastewater back into
drinking water. This procedure only leads to a small loss of water that can
be fed into other circuits (e.g. for industrial use). Innovative supply circuits
also include other energy sources. Micro generators connected with
water pipes feed electricity into local power supply systems. Even a large
proportion of waste is utilized in biomass power plants. While solving the
problem of supply insecurity, megacities have become precursors for a
new urban paradigm: Understanding cities as ecosystems.
254.2 Smart energy shift
Description
Growing megacities carry the burden of a constantly increasing demand for intelligent solutions for energy
electricity that can hardly be covered by conventional energy supply. Peak hungry cities
loads caused by temporary high demand prove to be a serious problem for
supply security. Fluctuating amperages or even power blackouts are the
result of supply infrastructures becoming obsolete. These cannot carry
the increased power volume. All this leads to an increasing necessity
for investment in modern infrastructure systems, supply and generation
technologies. Currently the renewal of power generation and the supply
infrastructure are amongst the main challenges for megacities. The spe-
cific requirements of urban energy consumption, from private households
through public services to commercial and industrial users, increasingly
set limits on the conventional forms of energy supply. Also the rising cost
of fossil fuels is working as a strong driver for smart change in energy gen-
eration and supply. Urban areas in the emerging countries suffering from
weak grid structures will therefore develop into the global testing environ-
ment for new technologies; e.g. smart grids and smart metering solutions
and decentralized electricity generation and supply.
Key aspects
Sustainable change in energy policies
Improvement of smart grids and smart technologies
Development of new decentralized storage technologies
Necessity for compensating for load peaks and avoiding blackouts
Increasing economic relevance of energy efficiency
Drivers
Fast increasing demand for energy in growing urban areas
Increase of supply insecurity for commercial and private consumers
Obsolete or even non-existent supply infrastructure
Rising prices for fossil energy sources
Acceleration of technological development in storage and grid sector
26Indicators
smart is key Global investments in intelligent infrastructure for energy supply rose
from US$ 67 billion in 2009 to US$ 120 billion in 2012; global invest-
ment volume of US$ 197 billion is estimated for 2015.
Worldwide Investments in Smart Energy
Infrastructure (in Billion USD)1
250
197
200
164
150 139
120
100
100 81
67
50
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1: Thomas Reuters (2012)
According to the various components of smart infrastructures, invest-
ments are focusing on sensors and electric components. A global
investment volume of US$ 85.5 billion is estimated for 2014 in this
sector alone.
Smart Infrastructure Investments 2009–2014:
Different Components (in Billion USD)2
90 35,5
80
70
60
50 39,4
37,6
40
27,4
30
19,0
20 15,2
10,0 6,4
10
0
Sensors / Electric IT hard- and Communication Smart electricity
components software systems meters
2014 2009
2: Zpryme Research & Consulting (2010)
27Impact
Growing demand for energy-related high-tech materials for storage, energy as intelligent as IT
metering, supply and generation
Stepping up efforts in research and development (R&D) of intelligent
infrastructure solutions
Achieving power self-sufficient districts or cities in a long or midterm
perspective
Changing energy markets including new competitors from non-energy
related sectors (e.g. telecommunication, ICT and retail)
Projection
Megacities play a key role in the smart energy shift. Infrastructure develop-
ment and renewal demonstrate that new generation and supply technolo-
gies will overcome obstacles in the urban regions of emerging countries
earlier than in western economies. On the consumption level this includes
a strong dissemination of smart home technologies for higher efficiency
and output control to avoid load peaks. On the production level, power
input from various renewables looks to complement or, in some cases,
even substitute conventional, centralized power plants by 2030. The wide
spread of smart grid in urban areas offsets the boundaries between con-
sumption and generation. The border between producing and consuming
vanishes: Simple consumption turns into producing and storing. Especially
for underdeveloped districts, the urban energy shift provides social and
economic improvements. Access to less expensive and clean energy works
as a strong driver to raise living standards and prosperity.
284.3. Energy blackout prevention
Description
avoiding the worst case What happens when megacities become temporarily disconnected from
the energy supply? Best case: Residential districts are blacked out for a
few minutes. Worst case: The complete loss of energy for multiple hours
or days. This would mean a huge problem for the public and economic
sector. Public transportation, industrial processing and IT networks rely
on a stable power supply to a very high degree. From a global perspec-
tive, blackouts cause losses running into many billions each year. In fact,
energy safety is one of the main obstacles to economic development in
emerging countries. The specific issue in megacities does not only have to
do with power generation but also with supply. Urban energy consumption
produces enormous load peaks transcending the infrastructure capacity.
In the near future megacities will be forced to develop innovative solutions
to avoid energy blackouts, especially under conditions of extreme weather
events like storms and floods.
Key aspects
Energy security as one major location advantage
Energy blackouts inhibit social and economic development in
megacities
Stable generation and supply to be improved in urban areas
Intelligent load peak control and technologies to compensate for load
peaks
Drivers
Overloading power grids due to greatly increasing power demand
Insufficient power generation capacities for strong megacity growth
Susceptibility of electronic devices and systems
Supply networks and supply hub less flexible
Increasing risk of extreme weather events due to climate change
Indicators
China has the world’s highest electricity consumption. Meanwhile
emerging economies like India and Brazil are on the same consump-
tion level as western economies. Based on their economic growth, the
BRIC states are forced to improve their capacities.
Graphic: see next page!
29Electricity Consumption Wordwide in 2011
(in Billion kilowatt hours)1
5.000 4.693
4.500
4.000 3.741
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000 860 858
601 550 545 461 456 455
500
0
China USA Japan Russia India Canada Germany France Brazil South Korea
1: CIA (2012): Country Comparison: Electricity - Consumption
Impact
Increase in public and private investment in emergency systems to
ensure power supply
Developing closed and autonomous circuits for highly endangered
facilities and infrastructures
Increasing demand for resistive materials for electronic facilities,
devices and power supply infrastructure
Projection
In 2030, fatal large-scale power blackouts are a thing of the past. The gen- smart and safe
eral power supply is covered by an energy mix of renewable sources (about
80%) and conventional sources as a contingency reserve for temporary
high demands (about 20%). Control systems organize the interplay of the
various sources with the different consumption units. Additionally, indus-
trial facilities, business districts and residential districts are provided with
highly efficient emergency power systems. Autonomous circuits supplied
by micro generators operate these emergency systems. These produce
enough energy to keep the basic supply stable for days. One of the most
powerful systems is reserved for public transport, telecommunication,
infrastructure and hospitals. Smart control and gradual preventative
measures mean economic losses caused by blackouts have been reduced
dramatically. Furthermore, power supply is maintained longer or recov-
ered earlier in disaster situations. In 2030 living in megacities is safer than
ever before.
305. Spotlight: Mobility & Infrastructure
Overview: Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges for 2030
Challenges
Enabling e-mobility for inner-city traffic: Charging infrastruc-
for 2030
ture, energy storage technologies, energy recovery technologies
New types of vehicles for inner-city transport: E-vehicles, micro
vehicles, lightweight construction vehicles
New modes of transport for long and short-distance traffic:
Inexpensive and environmentally compatible mobility
Opportunities for plastic and polymer industries
Opportunities Growth market e-mobility: Specified electronic components for
charging stations, batteries and energy recovery, piezoelectric
road surfacing, etc.
Metal replacement in vehicle construction: Weight-optimized
plastics and composites, composites and plastics allowing new
design solutions
Plausible growing demand for inexpensive and lightweight basic
materials for automotive, aviation and personal transport
315.1 E-mobility in advance
Description
With the increasing migration into urban areas and the growing middle mobility need to become
classes, megacities face specific challenges for individual and public trans- intelligent
port. Hundreds of thousands of people and goods have to be transported
every day. The increased demand in the transport sector is linked with a
shortage of resources for e.g. parking spaces, fuel and road networks.
Severe problems like air pollution, transport congestion and rising real costs
for transportation driven by the oil price development become immense. The
factors mentioned are accelerating the switch from combustion to e-mobility
that is implemented in urban transportation. Hybrids, plug-in-hybrids, full
electric and other forms of alternative engines are gaining in acceptance,
especially among urban users interested in economic efficiency and sus-
tainability. These arguments also count for public transportation: More and
more cities are replacing their conventional vehicle fleet by hybrid or electric
vehicles step by step. Currently, the lack of citywide charging infrastructure
is one of the greatest obstacles to a successful shift towards e-mobility. To
solve the ever-increasing ecological and social problems related to individual
transport, megacities are challenged to develop concepts to realize a suit-
able charging infrastructure as quickly as possible.
Key aspects
Rising individual transport causes massive ecological and social
problems
Continuous market growth due to consumer acceptance of non-
combustion engines
Industry intensifies activities in research and development (R&D) of
technologies related to e-mobility (e.g. batteries, storage, lightweight
construction)
Incremental technological progress: From hybrid over plug-in-hybrids
to full electric motors
Deficits in (charging) infrastructure as main obstacle to engine shift
Drivers
Due to massively growing prices for fossil fuel, e-mobility gains
importance
40% of worldwide pollution is produced by combustion engines in traffic
Sustainability increasingly works as a strong sales argument in auto-
motive market
Air pollution and quality of living due to emissions will climb on politi-
cal agendas of local authorities
32Indicators
electric fuel The expected number of hybrid and electric motors in use is growing.
The global market for hybrid and full electric vehicles is estimated at
US$ 88 billion for 2020.
Forecast for Development of Existing Hybrid and Electric
Vehicles from 2009 to 2020 (in Billion)1
100
85 85 87 88
90 83
77 80
80 72
68
70 63
58
60 54
50
40
30
20
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1: PRTM (2010): Green Tech
Exemplary model concept for the development of engine types in
Europe. The estimated market development according to different
engines shows a 50% market share for hybrid and electric vehicles in
2020. In 2025 combustion engines will be in the minority at only 41%.
Forecast for Engine Types in New Cars in Europe
from 2011 to 2025 in %2
100% 1
9 16
90%
80% 14
70% 15 24
60% 12 11
50% 99
8
40%
30%
50
20% 41
10%
0%
2011 2020 2025
Combustion engine Mildhybrid Full-Hybrid
Plug-in-Hybrid Full electric motor
2: A.T. Kearney (2012)
33Impact
The increasing proportion of electric vehicles for private use and pub-
lic transport is essential for the traffic structure in megacities
The quantity of vehicles means that the development of charging
infrastructure has to be intensified in the near future
The popularity of electric vehicles will lead to an increasing demand
for highly specialized lightweight materials in the automotive sector
The necessity for innovative solutions in vehicle construction, charg-
ing infrastructure and battery technology is rising
New classification of vehicles will have to be established for urban
usage (e.g. new concepts for micro vehicles)
Projection
In 2030 the traffic in megacities is completely electrified. Local authori- e-mobility will be
ties refuse inner-city access for combustion engine vehicles. Different emotional mobility
types of electric micro vehicles for individual transport dominate the typi-
cal street scene. Autonomous driving systems are on the rise. They are
connected with traffic guidance systems controlling traffic flow, speed,
safety distance and traffic lights. In the electric megacity, congestions and
accidents are a thing of the past. Charging stations are widely available in
public parking spaces. Main streets are equipped with devices for energy
recuperation or generation. People without a personal car have the pos-
sibility of using public rental cars that are available across the city. Despite
these improvements, individual transport has decreased in importance.
Hundreds of thousands commuters use the electric public transport sys-
tem every day. Priority is given to busses, trams and trains making public
transport faster than individual transport. Overall, the e-mobility shift has
provided positive effects for the cities. The living quality in suburbs and
the inner-city districts have improved significantly. Traffic-related environ-
mental problems like air pollution and dust exposure are practically un-
known. On top of that, e-mobility has reduced dependence on fossil fuels.
Despite the fear that investment in charging infrastructures, new streets,
public transport and guidance systems would have been extremely high,
the real costs of transportation have been kept stable.
345.2 Changing pattern of mobility
Description
The main challenge caused by the rapid growth of megacities is supplying
the required infrastructure. On weekdays commuters from the surround-
ing countryside pour into the hubs of the conurbation. In the ten biggest
European cities, approximately 40 % of travelers use public transport every
day – and this figure will increase. The efficiency and capacity of the trans-
port system quickly reaches its limits. For this reason new trends start to
emerge in the field of transport and mobility. There is a change in thinking
and acting. On the one hand new sharing concepts arise, on the other hand
there is an increase in the number of cars in the developing countries.
Although the number of public transport possibilities in China in 2011 was
seven times higher than 20 years earlier, the numbers of cars is rising.
New toll systems and instruments are needed to limit car numbers in city
centers. The search for new ecological and economical solutions will influ-
ence the future development of industry and purchasing behavior.
Key aspects
endless individual solutions Shared mobility: Concepts of sharing instead of possessing
Improving intermodal transportation
Increasing of public transport and soft mobility
Growing proportion of private transport especially in urban areas
Mobile applications offering rideshares and avoiding congestion
Growing number of cars in developing countries
Urban tolls for road use in cities
Drivers
Rising level of income in developing countries
Higher mobility costs
Different values: Car as status symbol (developing countries) versus
less consideration of cars among younger clientele
Technological development and innovations
High traffic congestions in inner citie
35Indicators
The growing demand for cars in emerging markets is a symbol of the sharing will be positive
increasing wealth and leads to growing traffic.
Demand for cars in emerging markets
from 2000 to 2020 (in %)1
60%
50% 48%
44%
40% 36%
31%
30%
22%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1: Focus Medialine (2009): Der Markt der Mobilität, Seite 43.
Growing car sharing – experts predict that new mobility offers like
car sharing will substitute 25 % of car purchases.
When will car sharing has beed established?2
80
70 67
60
52
50
43
40
31
30 25 25
24
19 18 19
20 17
15
13
9 10
10 7 6
1 0 0
0
2015 to 2019 2020 to 2024 2025 to 2030 Later than Probably
2030 never
German experts EU experts US experts Other international experts
2: TNS Infratest (2009): Zukunft und Zukunftsfähigkeit der Informations- und
Kommunikationstechnologien und Medien - Internationale Delphi-Studie 2030.
36Impact
variety of mobility Growing acceptance of car sharing
Demand for lower priced alternatives to petrol-driven vehicles
Exploding number of private cars in developing countries
Road pricing as a common method of reducing traffic in city centers
Projection
In 2030 the change in mobility patterns is leading to a changing traffic
structure within megacities and between the economically strong global
metropolises. The extensive use of devices for mobile communication and
unlimited access to WWW could substitute long-distance business travel
significantly. Even the number of private journeys is stagnating while the
use of new interface technologies increases. Driven by constantly growing
prices for fossil fuels, passenger volumes in inner-state air traffic have
been decreasing. This does not mean that people are less mobile, but
mobility habits have changed. Cars have lost their importance as a status
symbol. Sharing concepts are popular and satisfy the need for individual
transport. All in all, mobility habits have become more flexible and multi-
faceted. People use many different means of transport. Public transporta-
tion forms the solid basis of urban mobility. Combined with car and bicycle
sharing, micro vehicles and other sorts of locomotion the future megaci-
ties are constantly in motion.
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