Monthly Market Update (India) - February 2021 |iFAST Research - Fundsupermart
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Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST Research
MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE
2021 2020-21 2020
MTD 1Y (%) Return (%)
Asia ex Japan (MSCI Asia ex Japan) 3.98% 33.30% 22.45%
Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) 2.97% 25.15% 15.85%
Europe (Stoxx 600) -0.80% -3.62% -4.04%
Japan (Nikkei 225) 0.80% 19.21% 16.01%
USA (S&P 500) -1.11% 15.15% 16.26%
Brazil (IBOV) -3.32% 1.15% 2.92%
China (HS Mainland 100) 5.32% 16.66% 1.97%
Hong Kong (HSI) 3.87% 7.49% -3.40%
India (SENSEX) -3.07% 13.66% 15.60%
Indonesia (JCI) -1.95% -1.31% -5.09%
Malaysia (KLCI) -3.74% 2.31% 2.42%
Russia (RTSI$) -0.36% 6.51% 7.98%
Singapore (STI) 2.06% -7.97% -11.76%
South Korea (KOSPI) 3.58% 40.45% 30.75%
Taiwan (Taiwan Weighted) 2.75% 31.69% 22.80%
Thailand (SET Index) 1.22% -3.11% -8.26%
*Returns are as at 29th January 2021. Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations All returns are in
respective local currency terms and MSCI Index returns are in USD
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchECONOMIC INDICATORS
Trade (December’20) Markets & Valuations Inflation (December’20)
India’s CPI came at 4.59% (provisional) during the month
India’s exports during December 2020 were valued at USD (As on January 29, 2021) of December 2020. Inflation softened further as compared
27.15 billion registering a positive growth of 0.14% in The benchmark Index (Sensex) was at 46,285.77 to last month. Food and Beverages that have a weightage
dollar terms as compared to USD 27.11 billion during the
of 45.86% in the CPI basket reported a decrease in prices
month of December 2019. Imports during December 2020 Estimated PE & earnings growth for BSE Sensex 3..87% in December 2020. The prices of Cereals and
were valued at USD 42.59 billion which was 7.56% higher
products decreased by 0.98%, prices of milk & products
in dollar terms as compared to imports which were valued
2020 2021 2022 decreased by 3.98%. The Consumer Food price index came
at USD 39.59 billion in December 2019..
Price/Earnings 27.75 26.47 20.21 at 3.41% for the month.
For exports, the major commodity groups showing Earnings Growth 14.93% 4.83% 30.99%
positive growth over the corresponding month of last year
are Iron ore 69.26%, Drugs & pharmaceuticals 17.47% &
Engineering goods 16.51%.
For imports, major commodity groups showing high
changes in December 2020 over the corresponding month
of last year are Transport Equipment (-) 32.05%
Metalliferous ores & other minerals (-) 24.42% and
Petroleum (-) 10.61%. The trade deficit for the month of
December 2020 stood at USD 15.44 billion as against the
deficit of USD 12.49 billion during December 2019.
Industrial Production (December’20)
In December 2020, India's IIP came positive by 1% y-o-y.
The IIP for the Mining, manufacturing, and Electricity
sectors for the month of December 2020 stands at 115.1,
137.5, and 158 respectively. As per Use-based
classification, the growth rates in December 2020 are (-)
0.3% in Primary goods, 0.6% in Capital goods, 0.4% in
Intermediate goods and 0.9% in Infrastructure/
Construction Goods. The Consumer durables and
Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of 4.9%
and 2% respectively.
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchEQUITY MARKET
BSE Sensex - Top & bottom performers in January 2021.
Broader Indices (Performance % in January 2021)*
Top Performers MTD Bottom Performers MTD
BSE MID CAP 0.78
Kotak Mahindra Bank BSE SMALL CAP -0.61
Bajaj Auto Ltd 16% Ltd -14.1%
Nifty Index -2.48
BSE Sensex -3.07
Bharti Airtel Ltd 9% Asian Paints Ltd -12.9%
Tata Consultancy Dr Reddy's -4 -2 0 2
Services Ltd 8% Laboratories Ltd -11.6%
Earnings growth estimates of top weighted stocks:
Sectoral Indices (Performance % in January 2021)*
Stock FY-20 FY-21 FY-22
BSE AUTO 6.32
HDFC Bank Ltd. -2.38% 18.69% 19.58% BSE CG 3.93
Reliance Industries Ltd. 10.92% -1.76% 35.20% BSE TECK 2.52
BSE IT 2.36
Equity View BSE CD -0.97
BSE Oil & Gas -1.97
BSE Sensex gave a negative return of -3.07% in January 2021. Overall, the market BSE Realty -2.41
remained cautious due to global clues. On the domestic front, the market BSE Power -2.79
remained vigilant before the Union budget. Sensex broke 50,000 points for the BSE FMCG -3.10
first time, although the market felled as investors booked profits. As the
BSE Bankex -3.42
BSE-HC -4.85
government announced a pro-growth budget, it was good for the market. The -4.90
BSE METAL
government is committed to pushing the economy to the forefront by increasing
spending, focusing on capital expenditures on infrastructure. On the sectoral -10 -5 0 5 10
front BSE Auto, BSE CG and BSE Teck were among the top performers for the Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
month.
We advise our investors to stay invested in Large-cap funds. Enter the market via
the SIP route depending on their risk profile and time horizon.
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchDEBT MARKET OUTLOOK
10 Year G-sec Yield Curve
Fixed Income View 6.00
During January 2021, the 10- year G-sec yield was at 5.91% at the month-end. 5.95
Due to the expectations of OMO, the yield at the beginning of this month was
low. The yields were range-bound as RBI purchased OMOs of around 20,000 5.90
crores. In the Union budget, the planned borrowing has led to an anticipatory
steepening of the yields for government securities with longer durations. Since 5.85
bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship, higher yields lead to lower
5.80
bond prices, which, in turn, impacts NAVs of debt MFs.
5.75
We would like to suggest debt mutual fund categories at the shorter and
1-Jan-21
3-Jan-21
5-Jan-21
7-Jan-21
9-Jan-21
15-Jan-21
11-Jan-21
13-Jan-21
17-Jan-21
19-Jan-21
21-Jan-21
23-Jan-21
25-Jan-21
27-Jan-21
29-Jan-21
medium end of the duration curve remain preferable.
.
Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchGLOBAL MARKET UPDATE – GROUP 7 COUNTRIES
G7 Countries - Performance in January 2021* Europe
0.80%
The persistent virus case count has resulted in policymakers extending lockdown measures,
Japan (Nikkei 225)
delaying the recovery of the region as economic activities are disrupted. Leading indicators
Canada (S&P/TSX) -0.68% (i.e. consumer confidence and PMI) have softened amid the prevailing backdrop, signalling
UK (FTSE 100) -0.82% expectations of a slowdown in consumption and economic activities in the months ahead.
USA (S&P 500) -1.11% Encouragingly, the overwhelming policy support from the European Central Bank (ECB) and
-2.08% ongoing mass distribution of vaccine limits the downside for the region. As such, growth
Germany (DAX)
momentum may stumble in early 2021 but can revitalise down the road given its cyclicality
France (CAC-40) -2.74% exposure. We maintain our star rating of Europe at an “Attractive” rating of 3 stars.
Italy (FTSE MIB) -2.97%
Japan
-4% -2% 0% 2%
In Japan, the recovery is looking better than expected but the recent declaration of state
emergency will likely slow down its recovery momentum in 1Q. PMIs in Japan continued to
*Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
ease in January and remained in contractionary territory. The data reported reflects the
impact from the latest anti-virus emergency measures imposed in early January. Exports
Our View
growth in Japan accelerated in December, buoyed by a pickup in global demand as the
USA barrage of vaccine news raised hopes for a recovery. Overall, we do not expect virus the
The economic recovery of the US has displayed stark disparity. While trade headwinds to have a dramatic impact on the recovery.We maintain our star ratings of the
related data (i.e. PMIs and industrial production growth) is booming, Japanese market at an “Attractive” rating of 3 stars.
consumption related data (i.e. retail sales growth) is showing signs of stalling
amid a surge in virus infections. Spirits of consumers have also turn a tad
pessimistic. On the labour market front, unemployment rate remains
persistently high and is unlikely to abate in the near term. In our opinion, the
recovery of the US in 1Q will be bumpy and uneven as the country continues
to battle against the virus situation. 2Q's outlook could turn rosier if
vaccination programme takes off and fiscal stimulus gets underway. We have
upgraded our rating of 3.0 Stars “Attractive” for the US equity market.
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchGLOBAL MARKET UPDATE – ASIA PACIFIC (Ex-JAPAN)
Asia Pacific (Ex Japan) - Performance in January 2021*
Hong Kong (HSI) 3.87%
South Korea (KOSPI) 3.58%
Taiwan (Taiwan Weighted) 2.75%
Singapore (STI) 2.06%
Thailand (SET Index) 1.22%
Australia (S&P/ASX 200) 0.31%
Indonesia (JCI) -1.95%
Malaysia (KLCI) -3.74%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
*Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
Our View
Asia ex Japan
Recovery momentum is starting to pick up in the Asia ex-Japan region
External sectors, which are more reliant on global demand continued to
extend their recovery, evident from manufacturing. PMIs, exports and
industrial production data. Domestic demand, as captured by consumption
related data (consumer confidence and retail sales) is recovering as well but
not at the pace seen in North Asian economies. Notably, Singapore which had
been a laggard for the bulk of 2020 has staged a remarkable comeback, racing
ahead of its peers. In summary, the region should see a faster recovery to pre-
pandemic levels than other non Asian regions (i.e. US, EU, LATAM, EMEA),
given China’s economic impulse and better containment measures. We
maintain a 4 Stars “Very Attractive” rating.
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchGLOBAL MARKET UPDATE – BRIC (Ex-India)
BRIC (Ex-India) - Performance in January 2021*
China (HS Mainland 100) 5.32%
Russia (RTSI$) -1.43%
-3.32%
Brazil (IBOV)
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
*Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations. All returns are in respective local currency terms
Our View
China
Broadly, China’s economic data continues to improve, reinforcing
expectations of a healthy growth in 2021. Trade related data, more
specifically industrial production,(i.e. PMIs and Industrial production
growth) has displayed strong growth as it surpassed pre-pandemic levels.
Nonetheless, recent resurgence in virus cases and moderating global
recovery may slow China's recovery momentum in early 2021. Concerns
on tightening in monetary policy are a tad exaggerated at the moment
given the prospects of softer recovery and mild inflationary pressure. We
hold the view that China’s growth would still outperform other major
economies. We maintain for China A-‘4.5 stars’, China H-‘4.5 stars’ “Very
Attractive”.
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchFUND CATEGORY RETURNS
Fund Category Returns (As on January 2021 end)
1 Month 1 Year
Equity: Large Cap -1.90 12.11
Equity: Multi Cap -1.05 13.30
Equity: Mid Cap -0.11 17.10
Equity: Small Cap 0.16 19.80
Equity: ELSS -1.52 12.55
Equity: Index -2.17 13.85
Hybrid: Aggressive Hybrid Funds -1.22 11.79
Hybrid: Conservative Hybrid Fund -0.21 8.75
Debt: Gilt -0.14 10.85
Debt: Medium to Long Duration Fund -0.13 9.85
Debt: Short Duration Fund -0.10 7.66
Debt: Ultra Short Duration Fund 0.17 5.00
Debt: Liquid 0.22 3.86
Other: FOF Overseas 0.81 22.30
Solution Oriented Fund -1.28 10.52
Source: ACE MF, iFAST Compilations
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchTOP & BOTTOM EQUITY FUNDS
Top and Bottom Performing Equity Funds on our Platform as on 29th January 2021
Large Cap Funds Multi Cap Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Franklin India Bluechip Fund(G) 1.36 15.58 Invesco India Multicap Fund(G) -0.17 13.48
HDFC Top 100 Fund(G) -0.09 8.86 ICICI Pru Multicap Fund(G) -0.28 9.21
Indiabulls Blue Chip Fund(G) -4.67 4.93 Sundaram Equity Fund-Reg(G) -1.76 8.56
Axis Bluechip Fund-Reg(G) -4.95 13.16 Baroda Multi Cap Fund(G) -2.30 15.35
Mid Cap Funds ELSS Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Mirae Asset Midcap Fund-Reg(G) 3.73 25.88 IDFC Tax Advt(ELSS) Fund-Reg(G) 1.09 17.86
PGIM India Midcap Opp Fund-Reg(G) 1.88 41.64 Quantum Tax Saving Fund-Reg(G) 1.04 15.99
L&T Midcap Fund-Reg(G) -1.81 11.53 LIC MF Tax Plan(G) -3.77 3.39
Axis Midcap Fund-Reg(G) -2.12 18.13 Axis Long Term Equity Fund-Reg(G) -5.74 11.40
Small Cap Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Kotak Small Cap Fund(G) 3.17 26.93
Edelweiss Small Cap Fund-Reg(G) 1.60 26.32
Sundaram Small Cap Fund(G) -1.39 15.21
UTI Small Cap Fund-Reg(G) -1.67 0.00
Source: NAV India, iFAST Compilations
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchTOP & BOTTOM DEBT and HYBRID FUNDS
Top and Bottom Performing Debt and Hybrid Funds on our Platform as on 29th January 2021
Aggressive Hybrid Funds Conservative Hybrid Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Franklin India Equity Hybrid Fund(G) 0.61 14.36 Aditya Birla SL Regular Savings Fund(G) 1.42 11.87
Kotak Equity Hybrid Fund(D) 0.54 14.03 Kotak Debt Hybrid Fund(G) 0.43 13.96
Axis Equity Hybrid Fund-Reg(G) -3.02 10.73 HSBC Regular Savings Fund(G) -0.76 9.42
Indiabulls Equity Hybrid Fund-Reg(G) -3.38 8.98 Axis Regular Saver Fund(G) -1.04 11.66
Medium to Long Duration Funds Gilt
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Kotak Bond Fund-Reg(G) 0.23 12.19 IDBI Gilt Fund(G) 0.22 8.05
HDFC Income Fund(G) 0.16 8.89 DSP 10Y G-Sec Fund-Reg(G) 0.18 11.49
HSBC Debt Fund(G) -0.50 8.64 IDFC G-Sec-Invest-Reg(G) -0.37 13.02
IDFC Bond Fund - Income Plan-Reg(G) -0.51 10.87 Baroda Gilt Fund(G) -0.38 9.17
Short Duration Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Franklin India ST Income Plan(G) 0.86 -1.18
Baroda ST Bond Fund(G) 0.09 6.84
LIC MF ST Debt Fund-Reg(G) -0.31 7.28
DSP Short Term Fund-Reg(G) -0.32 8.29
Source: NAV India, iFAST Compilations
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchTOP & BOTTOM OTHER FUNDS
Top and Bottom Performing Other Funds on our Platform as on 29th January 2021
FOF Overseas Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Edelweiss Gr China Equity Off-Shore Fund-Reg(G) 8.96 76.68
PGIM India Emerging Markets Equity Fund(G) 6.82 31.54
Franklin India Feeder - Templeton European Opportunities Fund(G) -3.47 -6.03
HSBC Brazil Fund(G) -7.49 -22.59
Top and Bottom Performing Other Funds on our Platform as on 29th January 2021
Index Funds
Scheme 1 Month 1 Year
Motilal Oswal Nifty Smallcap 250 Index Fund-Reg(G) 1.04 18.58
Nippon India Nifty Smallcap 250 Index Fund-Reg(G) 0.68 0.00
LIC MF Index Fund-Sensex Plan(G) -3.10 13.92
Edelweiss MSCI India Domestic & World Healthcare 45 Index Fund-Reg(G) -3.34 0.00
Source: NAV India, iFAST Compilations
Monthly Market Update (India) – February 2021 |iFAST ResearchDISCLAIMER: THIS REPORT IS NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION FOR THE SUBSCRIPTION, PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY MUTUAL FUND. ANY ADVICE HEREIN IS MADE
ON A GENERAL BASIS AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SPECIFIC INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE OF THE SPECIFIC PERSON OR GROUP OF PERSONS. PAST PERFORMANCE AND ANY
FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF THE FUTURE OR LIKE PERFORMANCE OF THE MUTUAL FUND. THE VALUE OF UNITS AND THE INCOME FROM THEM MAY FALL AS WELL AS
RISE. OPINIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY.
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