MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC

MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
Monthly Property Market
& Economic Update
New Zealand
March 2018
MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
Contents
About CoreLogic                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4
       CoreLogic Data and Analytics ....................................................................................................................................................................                               4
       Legal Disclaimer ...............................................................................................................................................................................................                4

Macro Economic and Demographic Indicators                                                                                                                                                                                              6
       New Zealand Asset Classes .........................................................................................................................................................................                             7
       New Zealand Population ...............................................................................................................................................................................                          8
       Migration .............................................................................................................................................................................................................         9
       Regional Building Consents .........................................................................................................................................................................                           10
       Population Growth Compared to Building Consents ........................................................................................................................                                                       10
       Consumer Confidence ...................................................................................................................................................................................                         11
       Employment .......................................................................................................................................................................................................             12
       Interest Rates ....................................................................................................................................................................................................            13

Housing Overview                                                                                                                                                                                                                      14
       Nationwide Values ...........................................................................................................................................................................................                  15
       Sales Volumes ...................................................................................................................................................................................................              16
       Rent .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................   17
       Market Activity ..................................................................................................................................................................................................             18
       Valuations Completed.....................................................................................................................................................................................                      19
       Listings .................................................................................................................................................................................................................     20
       Buyer Classification .........................................................................................................................................................................................                 22
       House Price Index ............................................................................................................................................................................................                 23

Main Cities Housing Market Indicators                                                                                                                                                                                                 26
       Auckland Market Activity .............................................................................................................................................................................                         28
       Auckland Values ...............................................................................................................................................................................................                29
       Auckland Suburb Value Change ................................................................................................................................................................                                  30
       Current Auckland Suburb Values ..............................................................................................................................................................                                  32
       Hamilton Market Activity ..............................................................................................................................................................................                        34
       Hamilton Values ................................................................................................................................................................................................               35
       Tauranga Market Activity ..............................................................................................................................................................................                        36
       Tauranga Values ...............................................................................................................................................................................................                37
       Wellington Market Activity ...........................................................................................................................................................................                         38
       Wellington Values ............................................................................................................................................................................................                 39
       Christchurch Market Activity .......................................................................................................................................................................                           40
       Christchurch Values ........................................................................................................................................................................................                   41
       Dunedin Market Activity ................................................................................................................................................................................                       42
       Dunedin Values .................................................................................................................................................................................................               43




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MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
About CoreLogic




CoreLogic is a leading property information,                                                               Whilst all reasonable effort is made to ensure
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United States, Australia and New Zealand.                                                                  CoreLogic does not warrant the accuracy,
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access to rich data and analytics.                                                                         connection with the data and commentary
                                                                                                           contained in this publication.




Contact
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Email: reports@corelogic.co.nz




www.corelogic.co.nz


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MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
Macro Economic and
Demographic Indicators




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MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
New Zealand Asset Classes

                                             Residential Real Estate

                                             $1.07          trillion
                                             ($248 billion in home loans)




                                             Commercial/Industrial Real Estate

                                             $201 billion

                                             NZ Listed Stocks

                                             $130 billion

                                             NZ Super and KiwiSaver

                                             $79 billion

The value of residential property continues to grow beyond one trillion dollars, outperforming the
value of other asset classes. Residential mortgages secured against 23% of this value.

Following on from the drop in value experienced in February 2018 the NZX has gradually
strengthened to a new record value at the end of March 2018.




                                                 *Source: CoreLogic NZ, Reserve Bank of NZ, NZX, NZ Superfund, Financial Markets Authority




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MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
New Zealand Population
Quarterly Change in National Population

                                                                                                                                     Population growth slowed further in Q4
                                                                                                                                     2017, with the moving average continuing
                                                                                                                                     to trend down.

                                                                                                                                     Almost three-quarters of population
                                                                                                                                     growth is due to net migration, which
                                                                                                                                     was 70,000 for the year to the end of
                                                                                                                                     December 2017. This represents a further
                                                                                                                                     fall from the peak of 72,200 to the end of
                                                                                                                                     June 2017.

                                                                                                                                     After hitting a 20 year low, natural
                                                                                                                                     population growth rebounded in Q4 2017,
                                                                                                                                     but the overall trend is flat.

Population Change Composition




Annual Change in Population




                                                                                                                                                          Source: Statistics New Zealand

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MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
Migration
Long Term Migration

                                                                                                                                      January’s bounce-back in net migration
                                                                                                                                      (up by 1.6% from a year earlier) proved to
                                                                                                                                      be a temporary blip, with February’s figure
                                                                                                                                      coming in 14% lower than a year ago.
                                                                                                                                      Higher departures and lower arrivals both
                                                                                                                                      contributed to February’s soft result.

                                                                                                                                      In the 12 months to February, total net
                                                                                                                                      migration into New Zealand was 68,943.
                                                                                                                                      That total has eased from the peak of
                                                                                                                                      more than 72,000 in mid-2017, but the
                                                                                                                                      net migration is still running at historically
                                                                                                                                      high levels and has not dipped to the
                                                                                                                                      extent that might have been expected
                                                                                                                                      when Labour and NZ First originally came
                                                                                                                                      to power.

                                                                                                                                      Indeed, Stats NZ’s underlying ‘trend’
Monthly Net Migration Between New Zealand and Australia                                                                               measure of net migration is holding up
                                                                                                                                      pretty well, and this is not a bad thing
                                                                                                                                      when you consider the labour shortages
                                                                                                                                      – especially for skilled workers – currently
                                                                                                                                      faced by the NZ economy.

                                                                                                                                      A key thing to watch for in the migration
                                                                                                                                      figures over the coming months is the net
                                                                                                                                      position with Australia. Historically, the
                                                                                                                                      Australian net balance has been the swing
                                                                                                                                      factor for overall migration to NZ, and
                                                                                                                                      when it changes direction it can change
                                                                                                                                      very quickly. At least for now, however,
                                                                                                                                      subdued wage growth in Australia will
                                                                                                                                      be capping its attractiveness for foreign
                                                                                                                                      migrants and Kiwis potentially considering
                                                                                                                                      making a move.



                                                                                       Net Gain Last Year                                                          % Change
 TOTAL ALL AREAS                                                                                 70,016                                                                -0.8%
 Auckland Region                                                                                  36,152                                                                6.6%
 Hamilton City                                                                                     1,875                                                               12.3%
 Tauranga City                                                                                     1,052                                                                0.5%
 Wellington                                                                                       3,593                                                                10.9%
 Christchurch City                                                                                5,403                                                                -4.0%
 Dunedin City                                                                                      1,024                                                               23.7%
 Main Urban Area (Other)                                                                          5,239                                                                -5.9%
 Rural Centres                                                                                    4,798                                                                 8.6%
 Not applicable/Not stated                                                                       10,880                                                               -23.8%




                                                                                                                                                           Source: Statistics New Zealand

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MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
Regional Building Consents
New Dwelling Consents Trend

                                                                                                                                     The number of building consents issued in
                                                                                                                                     Auckland remains strong, despite a minor
                                                                                                                                     drop in the monthly trend series, with the
                                                                                                                                     annual pace of growth accelerating to 15%.
                                                                                                                                     Even at these high build-rates, however,
                                                                                                                                     the shortfall of housing will take several
                                                                                                                                     years to be eroded.

                                                                                                                                     Controversy continues to swirl around
                                                                                                                                     the government’s KiwiBuild initiative and
                                                                                                                                     it remains to be seen how much of a true
                                                                                                                                     net boost it will provide to Auckland’s
                                                                                                                                     housing stock. After all, KiwiBuild will
                                                                                                                                     absorb labour resources that would
                                                                                                                                     otherwise have been available to build
                                                                                                                                     private sector-funded houses. And that’s
                                                                                                                                     potentially a problem in an industry
                                                                                                                                     already running at capacity.

                                                                                                                                     That said, the easing in building consents
                                                                                                                                     elsewhere around the country may at
                                                                                                                                     least help to free up some workers for
                                                                                                                                     Auckland’s construction market.




Population Growth Compared
to Building Consents
Quarterly Population Change and Building Consents Nationwide

                                                                                                                                     With population growth slowing and
                                                                                                                                     building consents continuing to increase,
                                                                                                                                     the gap between the two is reducing.

                                                                                                                                     The gap is calculated by assuming 80%
                                                                                                                                     of dwellings consented translate into an
                                                                                                                                     actual increase in the number of dwellings
                                                                                                                                     (which may be generous given our results
                                                                                                                                     of consent to stock change analysis), and
                                                                                                                                     that each of those dwellings will house
                                                                                                                                     the current average number of people (2.7
                                                                                                                                     people per dwelling).

                                                                                                                                     For example, over the year to December
                                                                                                                                     2017 there were 31,127 dwellings consented
                                                                                                                                     (able to house 67,234 people), and an
                                                                                                                                     increase in population of 97,000, leaving
                                                                                                                                     a difference of almost 30,000 too many
                                                                                                                                     people for dwellings.




                                                                                                                                                          Source: Statistics New Zealand

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MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
Consumer Confidence
ANZ-Roy Morgan Confidence Consumer

                                                                                                                                     January’s rise in consumer confidence
                                                                                                                                     was repeated in February, with consumers
                                                                                                                                     buoyed by the strong labour market
                                                                                                                                     (albeit not much pay growth), housing
                                                                                                                                     wealth and the prospect of continued low
                                                                                                                                     interest rates.

                                                                                                                                     The feel-good factor around the new
                                                                                                                                     government may also be bolstering
                                                                                                                                     households’ confidence, although the first
                                                                                                                                     signs of tension may now be emerging
                                                                                                                                     in the coalition (e.g. Jacinda Ardern
                                                                                                                                     having to reprimand Shane Jones for his
                                                                                                                                     comments about Air New Zealand).

                                                                                                                                     The gap has closed in recent months, but
                                                                                                                                     for now consumer confidence in NZ is
                                                                                                                                     higher than Australia.




                                                                              Source: ANZ NZ, Roy Morgan




Trans-Tasman Consumer Confidence Index




                                                              Source: Westpac NZ, McDermott Miller




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MONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET & ECONOMIC UPDATE - CORELOGIC
Employment
Annual Change in Employment, Full Time and Part Time

                                                                                                                                     The rate of part-time employment lifted
                                                                                                                                     however the rate of growth in full-time
                                                                                                                                     employment eased off for the fourth
                                                                                                                                     quarter in a row (albeit only marginally
                                                                                                                                     last quarter). The total number of people
                                                                                                                                     actually employed has continued to rise.

                                                                                                                                     The labour force participation rate eased
                                                                                                                                     slightly to 71.0% in Q4 2017 after peaking
                                                                                                                                     in Q3 2017 at 71.1% and the unemployment
                                                                                                                                     rate dropped further to 4.5% - the lowest
                                                                                                                                     since 2008.

                                                                                                                                     For an employment lead significant
                                                                                                                                     correction in the housing market to occur,
Labour Force Participation Rate                                                                                                      there would have to be a turnaround in
                                                                                                                                     employment with people unable to pay
                                                                                                                                     mortgages or rent.




Unemployment Rate




                                                                                                                                                          Source: Statistics New Zealand

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Interest Rates
Mortgage Interest Rates - %

                                                                                                                                     Mortgage lending rates have stayed pretty
                                                                                                                                     flat at historically low levels in recent
                                                                                                                                     weeks, as the retail banks remain in tight
                                                                                                                                     competition with each other for market
                                                                                                                                     share.

                                                                                                                                     Acting Governor Grant Spencer’s last rates
                                                                                                                                     decision saw the OCR on hold at 1.75%
                                                                                                                                     on 22nd March. The incoming Adrian Orr
                                                                                                                                     is tipped to shake things up a bit more
                                                                                                                                     than recent governors, but given NZ’s
                                                                                                                                     continued low inflation environment it
                                                                                                                                     seems unlikely that the OCR will rise
                                                                                                                                     before 2019.

Projected Official Cash Rate - %                                                                                                     Even so, some early signs of offshore
                                                                                                                                     funding pressures may start to push up NZ
                                                                                                                                     domestic lending rates. This is something
                                                                                                                                     to watch for over an 18-24 month horizon,
                                                                                                                                     as the vast majority of fixed mortgages
                                                                                                                                     come to an end and homeowners have to
                                                                                                                                     refinance.




Average Two Year Fixed Rates - %




                                                                                                                                              Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

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Housing Overview




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Nationwide Values
Average Value of Housing Stock - New Zealand

                                                                                                                                     Nationwide value growth experienced its
                                                                                                                                     traditional cooling in February, with the
                                                                                                                                     quarterly rate slowing to 1.2%.

                                                                                                                                     However, looking through the normal
                                                                                                                                     seasonality by comparing to a year earlier,
                                                                                                                                     the annual growth rate held pretty steady
                                                                                                                                     at 7%. This is underpinned by a strong
                                                                                                                                     labour market and continued low interest
                                                                                                                                     rates.




Annual and Quarterly Change in Value




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Sales Volumes
Nationwide Sales Volumes

                                                                                                                                     After holding steady in December, sales
                                                                                                                                     volumes fell in January and the decline
                                                                                                                                     continued into February (albeit at a slower
                                                                                                                                     pace than the previous month).

                                                                                                                                     Auckland’s downturn in sales volumes
                                                                                                                                     continued last month, with high prices and
                                                                                                                                     less of a ‘FOMO’ effect (fear of missing
                                                                                                                                     out) combining to dampen market activity
                                                                                                                                     levels. Indeed, properties in Auckland are
                                                                                                                                     sitting on the market for longer now than
                                                                                                                                     they have down for several years.

                                                                                                                                     Other North Island cities such as Hamilton
                                                                                                                                     and Wellington are seeing turnover
                                                                                                                                     increase, while Christchurch and Dunedin
Nationwide Annual Change in Sales Volumes                                                                                            are also showing renewed green shoots of
                                                                                                                                     recovery.




Regional Sales Volumes Year-on-Year




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Rent
Nationwide Annual Change in Value and Rent

                                                                                                                                      The pace of annual rental growth slowed
                                                                                                                                      from 4.9% in January to 4.1% in February, a
                                                                                                                                      slightly different picture than the stability
                                                                                                                                      for value growth.

                                                                                                                                      Gross rental yields continue to tick up
                                                                                                                                      and down a little from month to month,
                                                                                                                                      broadly hovering at just above the 3%
                                                                                                                                      mark.

                                                                                                                                      Christchurch’s rental market remains the
                                                                                                                                      weakest of the main centres, with rents
                                                                                                                                      down by 1.9% over the past 12 months.
                                                                                                                                      Wellington and Tauranga continue to lead
                                                                                                                                      the pack in terms of rental growth, but
                                                                                                                                      yields in these centres are comparatively
                                                                                                                                      low. Dunedin stands out for having
                                                                                                                                      reasonably solid rental growth, combined
                                                                                                                                      with a reasonable gross yield of 4.6%.




Gross Rental Yield - Nationwide




                                                                          Median Weekly Rent                          Annual Change in Rent                                   Gross Yield
 Auckland                                                                               $513                                          2.1%                                          2.2%
 Hamilton                                                                               $361                                         4.4%                                          3.4%
 Tauranga                                                                              $437                                           7.0%                                          3.2%
 Wellington                                                                            $483                                          8.4%                                           3.3%
 Christchurch                                                                           $351                                         -1.9%                                          3.7%
 Dunedin                                                                               $349                                           2.9%                                         4.6%



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Market Activity
Market Activity Index

                                                                                                                                      With the holiday period now out of the
                                                                                                                                      way, valuation patterns have reverted to
                                                                                                                                      ‘normal’ and we can see that in all centres
                                                                                                                                      market activity is still well down on the
                                                                                                                                      volumes of a year ago.

                                                                                                                                      Auckland continues to be an area of
                                                                                                                                      weakness in terms of valuations activity.




  Latest 3 Weeks Year-on-Year                                                                                                             Percentage change
  Auckland                                                                                                                                            -29%
  Hamilton City                                                                                                                                        -6%
  Tauranga City                                                                                                                                        -5%
  Wellington Region                                                                                                                                   -19%
  Christchurch City                                                                                                                                   -19%
  Dunedin City                                                                                                                                         -11%


This market activity is based on the number of automated valuations run by bank staff using our systems each week. This
number of valuations correlates very closely to the number of sales that will subsequently occur so this is an extremely
timely measure of buyer demand, more than any measure of sales. We can also track across any geographic area.




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Valuations completed
Market Activity Year-on-Year

                                                                                                                                     This map shows activity in the latest three
                                                                                                                                     weeks compared to the same three weeks
                                                                                                                                     last year.

                                                                                                                                     The heatmap for NZ as a whole illustrates
                                                                                                                                     the pretty board-based nature of the
                                                                                                                                     valuations activity slowdown, with only
                                                                                                                                     Nelson and a few selected parts of the
                                                                                                                                     central North Island showing any sort of
                                                                                                                                     strength.




                                                    *Size of bubble represents the level of activity for the period 29 January – 18 February 2018

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Listings
New Listings

                                                                                                                                     New listings have gone through their
                                                                                                                                     seasonally typical lift over the last few
                                                                                                                                     weeks, however listings in Auckland have
                                                                                                                                     not been as strong as around the rest of
                                                                                                                                     the country with the one year comparison
                                                                                                                                     in Auckland 11% down.

                                                                                                                                     New listings in Canterbury have also been
                                                                                                                                     weak, while Waikato has seen a strong
                                                                                                                                     increase on the same time last year – up
                                                                                                                                     25%.




 New Listings                                                       Average last 3 weeks                                1 month change                                    1 year change
 New Zealand                                                                     2,353                                             4%                                              0%
 Auckland                                                                         723                                              4%                                             -11%
 Waikato                                                                          249                                              4%                                             25%
 Bay of Plenty                                                                     186                                            12%                                              0%
 Wellington                                                                        221                                             3%                                              2%
 Canterbury                                                                       340                                             -6%                                             -8%
 Otago                                                                             120                                            24%                                             12%




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Total Listings

                                                                                                                                      Listings are showing signs of increasing
                                                                                                                                      both in Auckland and around the rest of
                                                                                                                                      the country, which will tend to dampen
                                                                                                                                      price pressures. Wellington, however, is
                                                                                                                                      still a tight market in terms of property
                                                                                                                                      available for sale.




  Total Listings                                                            Latest week                                  1 month change                                    1 year change
 New Zealand                                                                     30,521                                             3%                                              8%
 Auckland                                                                         9,932                                             7%                                             19%
 Waikato                                                                          3,230                                             3%                                             21%
 Bay Of Plenty                                                                    2,147                                             1%                                              6%
 Wellington                                                                       1,652                                             2%                                              -1%
 Canterbury                                                                       4,881                                             1%                                              4%
 Otago                                                                             1,118                                            2%                                              6%




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Buyer Classification
Buyer Classification - New Zealand

                                                                                                                                     First home buyers have slightly reduced
                                                                                                                                     their share of the market in the first few
                                                                                                                                     months of 2018, but remain more active
                                                                                                                                     than they have been at any point in the
                                                                                                                                     past 4-5 years.

                                                                                                                                     Multiple property owners have also
                                                                                                                                     increased their share of the market in
                                                                                                                                     recent months, perhaps because some will
                                                                                                                                     be able to rejig existing finances to allow
                                                                                                                                     extra property purchases. On the other
                                                                                                                                     hand, movers are taking a smaller share
                                                                                                                                     of activity, perhaps preferring to renovate
                                                                                                                                     their existing house rather than move.




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House Price Index
Average Dwelling Value

                                                                                                                                     Values were at worst flat across most of
                                                                                                                                     the country in February, with Tauranga
                                                                                                                                     and Wellington showing solid monthly
                                                                                                                                     gains of roughly 1% boosting their three
                                                                                                                                     month growth rates to 2.8% and 3.1%
                                                                                                                                     respectively.

                                                                                                                                     The recent rebound in Auckland values
                                                                                                                                     was halted, for the time being at least,
                                                                                                                                     with a 0.1% drop in February. Values
                                                                                                                                     continue to track sideways in Christchurch,
                                                                                                                                     and the growth rate in Dunedin slowed to
                                                                                                                                     only 0.1% for the month.




                                                                                                                         February 2018
                                                                    Current Value                           3 months                           12 months                     Since 2007 peak
 New Zealand                                                            $672,645                                1.2%                                 7%                                 62%
 Auckland                                                             $1,053,948                               0.8%                                  1%                                 93%
 Hamilton                                                               $548,417                               0.8%                                  3%                                 52%
 Tauranga                                                               $706,825                                2.8%                                 5%                                 47%
 Wellington                                                             $640,737                                3.1%                                 9%                                 41%
 Christchurch                                                          $494,563                                 0.1%                                 -1%                                30%
 Dunedin                                                                $392,921                                1.7%                                 9%                                 37%



                                                                                                                    Source: CoreLogic NZ QV Monthly House Price Index




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House Price Index
Annual Value Change

                                                                                                                                     Focusing on the past 12 months, value
                                                                                                                                     changes have been strongest in parts
                                                                                                                                     of the lower North Island, including
                                                                                                                                     Horowhenua and Masterton.

                                                                                                                                     Auckland and Canterbury stand out as
                                                                                                                                     parts of the country with more modest
                                                                                                                                     value gains, while lower down in the South
                                                                                                                                     Island, areas such as Winton, Te Anau and
                                                                                                                                     Riverton have helped boost overall values
                                                                                                                                     in the Southland District.




                                                                         *Size of bubble represents the number of properties in the Territorial Authority

                                                                              CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 22

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Three Month Value Change

                                                                                                                                     Looking at a more recent three month
                                                                                                                                     change in values, areas of strength have
                                                                                                                                     been around Hawke’s Bay and Waikato,
                                                                                                                                     while there have also been some hotspots
                                                                                                                                     in the lower half of the South Island.

                                                                                                                                     Again, the areas with softer price trends
                                                                                                                                     have been around Canterbury and
                                                                                                                                     Auckland.




                                                                         *Size of bubble represents the number of properties in the Territorial Authority

                                                                              CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 23

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Main Cities Housing
Market Indicators




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Auckland Market Activity
Buyer Demand - Auckland

                                                                                                                                     Overall demand in Auckland’s housing
                                                                                                                                     market has made a relatively lacklustre
                                                                                                                                     start to 2018, but this trend does not
                                                                                                                                     necessarily apply to all types of buyers.

                                                                                                                                     Multiple property owners held onto their
                                                                                                                                     gains in the Auckland market over the
                                                                                                                                     past few weeks and are now consistently
                                                                                                                                     accounting for more than 40% of activity.
                                                                                                                                     As we outlined last month, it’s typical
                                                                                                                                     for between 25% and 33% of these to
                                                                                                                                     make their purchase without a mortgage,
                                                                                                                                     unaffected by LVRs or serviceability
                                                                                                                                     criteria (and subsequently excluded from
                                                                                                                                     RBNZ reporting).

                                                                                                                                     First home buyers are also consistently
                                                                                                                                     active in Auckland at around 23% of the
                                                                                                                                     market, and have now overtaken movers in
                                                                                                                                     the rankings. First home buyers are willing
                                                                                                                                     to sacrifice location and/or quality to get
                                                                                                                                     on that first rung of the ladder.




Buyer Classification - Auckland




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Auckland Values
Average Value of Housing Stock - Auckland

                                                                                                                                     The quarterly rate of change in Auckland
                                                                                                                                     values slowed from 1.6% in January to
                                                                                                                                     0.8% in February, which seems consistent
                                                                                                                                     with the cooling in market activity levels.

                                                                                                                                     Waitakere continues to experience a
                                                                                                                                     very slow recovery in values but they
                                                                                                                                     still remain below the level a year ago.
                                                                                                                                     Auckland City values have effectively
                                                                                                                                     plateaued for over a year now, while
                                                                                                                                     Manukau has experienced some recent
                                                                                                                                     growth, but only enough to make up for
                                                                                                                                     losses over the previous 9 months




Annual and Quarterly Value Change - Auckland




                                                                                                                         February 2018
                                                                    Current Value                           3 months                           12 months                     Since 2007 peak
 Rodney                                                                 $951,356                                1.7%                                 2%                                 62%
 North Shore                                                            $1,231,179                              1.5%                                 3%                                 91%
 Waitakere                                                              $825,362                               0.5%                                  -1%                                95%
 Auckland City                                                        $1,239,086                               -0.2%                                 1%                                 99%
 Manukau                                                                $902,791                                1.3%                                 0%                                 97%
 Papakura                                                               $702,318                                1.5%                                 2%                                 95%
 Franklin                                                                $674,114                               2.2%                                 2%                                 70%

                                                                              CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 27

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Auckland Suburb Value Change
Annual Value Change




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As was the case last month, parts of
                                                                                                                                   central Auckland and in the eastern
                                                                                                                                   suburbs are seeing solid gains in property
                                                                                                                                   values, of 10% or more on an annual basis.
                                                                                                                                   However, to the west and south of the city
                                                                                                                                   there are several suburbs that have seen
                                                                                                                                   prices fall over the past year.




                                                                                                                                      *Size of bubble represents the number of
                                                                                                                                                       properties in the suburb.
                                                                                                                                          Based on CoreLogic Median E-valuer

                                                                           CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 29

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Current Auckland Suburb Values
Median Value of Housing Stock




                                                                                                   20 km

                                                                                              10 km




Slight drops in value have not changed a picture of widespread unaffordability in Auckland.

There are now 10 suburbs where the average value of the housing stock is over one million dollars with Piha, New Windsor
and Unsworth Heights among the latest to join the club and Botany Downs dropping slightly below the milestone mark.




                                                                                                                                               *Based on CoreLogic Median E-valuer

                                                                              CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 30

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Hamilton Market Activity
Buyer Demand - Hamilton

                                                                                                                                     Buyer demand has risen solidly in
                                                                                                                                     Hamilton in recent weeks, in contrast to
                                                                                                                                     softer results for neighbouring areas.

                                                                                                                                     Multiple property owners have been
                                                                                                                                     easing back in Hamilton and movers have
                                                                                                                                     also seen their share of the market slide a
                                                                                                                                     bit. That leaves first home owners as the
                                                                                                                                     key support for recent activity in Hamilton,
                                                                                                                                     and their 24% share of the market has now
                                                                                                                                     edged slightly above movers.

                                                                                                                                     First home buyers still have a strong
                                                                                                                                     incentive to get into the market if they
                                                                                                                                     can, given that renting can often be
                                                                                                                                     more expensive than owning. Access
                                                                                                                                     to Kiwisaver withdrawals may also be a
                                                                                                                                     factor here.




Buyer Classification - Hamilton




                                                                              CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 32

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Hamilton Values
Average Value of Housing Stock - Hamilton

                                                                                                                                     Hamilton’s property values seem to have
                                                                                                                                     passed a recent soft patch and although
                                                                                                                                     quarterly growth rates are ticking along at
                                                                                                                                     less than 1%, the annual rate has recently
                                                                                                                                     lifted to 3% in the past few months.

                                                                                                                                     Growth in Hamilton South West has now
                                                                                                                                     begun to slow, while Central & North West
                                                                                                                                     has finally seen a turnaround in values
                                                                                                                                     after 4 months of value erosion, however
                                                                                                                                     the three month rate is still negative.

                                                                                                                                     Hamilton South East is showing signs of
                                                                                                                                     recovery, with the three-month growth
                                                                                                                                     rate pretty strong at 1.8%.




Annual and Quarterly Value Change - Hamilton




                                                                                                                         February 2018
                                                                    Current Value                           3 months                           12 months                     Since 2007 peak
 Hamilton Central & North West                                          $498,761                               -0.2%                                 1%                                 39%
 Hamilton North East                                                   $694,699                                0.7%                                  2%                                 55%
 Hamilton South East                                                   $500,468                                 1.8%                                 4%                                 43%
 Hamilton South West                                                    $491,915                               0.5%                                  6%                                 44%



                                                                              CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 33

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Tauranga Market Activity
Buyer Demand - Tauranga

                                                                                                                                     Tauranga’s valuation volumes have been
                                                                                                                                     up and down so far in 2018, but if we look
                                                                                                                                     through the volatility the general trend has
                                                                                                                                     been rising.

                                                                                                                                     First home buyers play less of a role in
                                                                                                                                     Tauranga than other main centres, so it’s
                                                                                                                                     the movers and multiple property owners
                                                                                                                                     that are supporting the city’s activity.
                                                                                                                                     Multiple property owners in particular
                                                                                                                                     have had a relatively good start to 2018.




Buyer Classification - Tauranga




                                                                             CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 34

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Tauranga Values
Average Value of Housing Stock - Tauranga

                                                                                                                                     Tauranga house values seem to have
                                                                                                                                     started a bit of a bounceback, with the
                                                                                                                                     quarterly rate of change picking up in the
                                                                                                                                     last few months. It was 2.8% in February,
                                                                                                                                     up from 1.7% in January. The annual rate
                                                                                                                                     of growth also now seems to have turned
                                                                                                                                     a corner.




Annual and Quarterly Value Change - Tauranga




                                                                              CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 35

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Wellington Market Activity
Buyer Demand - Wellington

                                                                                                                                     Wellington’s property market is pretty
                                                                                                                                     active at present, with valuation volumes
                                                                                                                                     the same or better than a year ago. That’s
                                                                                                                                     pretty rare around the country.

                                                                                                                                     Movers are not especially active, only
                                                                                                                                     accounting for about 20% of the market
                                                                                                                                     in Wellington at present. Multiple property
                                                                                                                                     owners are holding their own, but the real
                                                                                                                                     action is amongst first time buyers. They
                                                                                                                                     continue to raise their share of activity,
                                                                                                                                     and at 33%, are now more significant in
                                                                                                                                     the market than at any time in the past
                                                                                                                                     decade.




Buyer Classification - Wellington




                                                                             CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 36

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Wellington Values
Average Value of Housing Stock – Wellington

                                                                                                                                     Values in Wellington continue to rise fairly
                                                                                                                                     strongly on a quarterly basis, at around
                                                                                                                                     3%. The annual rate of growth has come
                                                                                                                                     down from previous rapid levels of more
                                                                                                                                     than 20%, but it remains pretty strong at
                                                                                                                                     9%.

                                                                                                                                     Growth has slowed across the wider
                                                                                                                                     Wellington area with values in February
                                                                                                                                     in particular quite weak, and Lower
                                                                                                                                     Hutt’s quarterly rate of 0.5% the lowest
                                                                                                                                     witnessed since October 2015.




Annual and Quarterly Change in Value - Wellington




                                                                                                                         February 2018
                                                                    Current Value                           3 months                           12 months                     Since 2007 peak
 Porirua                                                                $546,552                                2.1%                                10%                                 43%
 Upper Hutt                                                             $474,961                                1.0%                                 8%                                 35%
 Lower Hutt                                                             $526,659                               0.5%                                  8%                                 34%
 Wellington City                                                       $764,020                                 1.9%                                 8%                                 44%



                                                                              CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 37

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Christchurch Market Activity
Buyer Demand - Christchurch

                                                                                                                                     Market activity in Christchurch remains
                                                                                                                                     pretty stable, albeit at levels comfortably
                                                                                                                                     lower than a year ago.

                                                                                                                                     The buyer classification series shows that
                                                                                                                                     multiple property owners and movers have
                                                                                                                                     reduced their share of the market lately,
                                                                                                                                     and this is creating a gap for first time
                                                                                                                                     buyers. The latter have increased their
                                                                                                                                     share of activity in Christchurch to 25%.

                                                                                                                                     It is important to note that most buyer
                                                                                                                                     types, not only in Christchurch but all
                                                                                                                                     around the country, have become less
                                                                                                                                     active. It’s just that first home buyers have
                                                                                                                                     held up better than others in terms of their
                                                                                                                                     interest in entering the property market.




Buyer Classification - Christchurch




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Christchurch Values
Average Value of Housing Stock - Christchurch

                                                                                                                                     Against the backdrop of subdued market
                                                                                                                                     activity levels in Christchurch, values
                                                                                                                                     are also soft. The quarterly change was
                                                                                                                                     essentially zero in February, and values
                                                                                                                                     have dipped by 1% compared with a year
                                                                                                                                     ago.

                                                                                                                                     This is evident across the City; however
                                                                                                                                     values in the Hills have continued to make
                                                                                                                                     some ground back after the average value
                                                                                                                                     dropped to below $650k in October 2017.

                                                                                                                                     Over the longer term, Christchurch
                                                                                                                                     Southwest has seen the greatest growth
                                                                                                                                     since the previous peak at the end of 2007
                                                                                                                                     (39%), but values have struggled in recent
                                                                                                                                     times (-1% annual rate). As have Central &
                                                                                                                                     North.




Annual and Quarterly Value Change - Christchurch




                                                                                                                         February 2018
                                                                    Current Value                           3 months                           12 months                     Since 2007 peak
 Banks Peninsula                                                         $511,931                              -0.4%                                 1%                                  7%
 Christchurch Central & North                                           $583,678                               -0.3%                                 -1%                                32%
 Christchurch East                                                      $371,826                                0.1%                                 0%                                 20%
 Christchurch Hills                                                    $669,770                                 1.3%                                 0%                                 21%
 Christchurch Southwest                                                 $472,482                               0.4%                                  -1%                                39%

                                                                             CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand March 2018 | 39

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Dunedin Market Activity
Buyer Demand - Dunedin

                                                                                                                                     Market activity in Dunedin has started off
                                                                                                                                     2018 pretty positively, with valuation levels
                                                                                                                                     on a gently rising trend.

                                                                                                                                     First time buyers and movers have not
                                                                                                                                     been particularly active in the Dunedin
                                                                                                                                     market in recent months, so it’s been
                                                                                                                                     multiple property owners that have moved
                                                                                                                                     up in terms of market share. At 32%, that
                                                                                                                                     figure is the highest for a couple of years.
                                                                                                                                     This may reflect some decent gains in
                                                                                                                                     rents over the past few quarters and the
                                                                                                                                     relatively high levels of yields that are
                                                                                                                                     on offer in the city, which would appeal
                                                                                                                                     to this buyer group. Of course, rising
                                                                                                                                     requirements around the standard of
                                                                                                                                     rental properties is something that they’ll
                                                                                                                                     be keeping an eye on.




Buyer Classification - Dunedin




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Dunedin Values
Average value of stock – Dunedin

                                                                                                                                     The growth in values in Dunedin continues
                                                                                                                                     to tick along at a reasonable pace, with
                                                                                                                                     the quarterly change coming in at 1.7%
                                                                                                                                     in February. The annual growth rate has
                                                                                                                                     slowed, but values are still 9% higher than
                                                                                                                                     a year ago.

                                                                                                                                     Values across the Peninsula and Coastal
                                                                                                                                     areas have been volatile with values
                                                                                                                                     dropping dramatically over winter and
                                                                                                                                     quickly regaining those losses in spring
                                                                                                                                     and more recently flattening out.
                                                                                                                                     In Taieri, values have again started to rise,
                                                                                                                                     outpacing the other areas within the city
                                                                                                                                     in the last three months.




Annual and quarterly change in value - Dunedin




                                                                                                                         February 2018
                                                                    Current Value                           3 months                           12 months                     Since 2007 peak
 Dunedin Central & North                                                $407,170                               0.9%                                  9%                                 35%
 Dunedin South                                                          $373,280                                1.4%                                10%                                 31%
 Peninsula and Coastal                                                 $360,626                                 1.6%                                10%                                 33%
 Taieri                                                                $408,439                                 2.7%                                 9%                                 39%




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CoreLogic Data and Analytics
CoreLogic Buyer Classification                                                                             Suburb scorecard
A unique and flagship product to CoreLogic, Buyer                                                          Detailed housing market indicators at suburb level,
Classification determines the type of buyer for every                                                      with data either in time series or current snapshot, and
purchase of property based on their current and previous                                                   segmented across houses, flats and apartments. The
ownership of NZ property. Created at a record level, this                                                  Suburb Scorecard data includes key housing market
can be matched to other datasets or summarised at any                                                      metrics such as median prices, median values, transaction
geographic area.                                                                                           volumes, rental statistics and market metrics such as
                                                                                                           median selling time.
Our buyer classification is used by financial institutions
and Government agencies at both record and summary
level and overlaid with their own data to assist strategic,                                                To view the latest report online and subscribe to
policy, compliance, risk management and marketing                                                          receive it in your inbox on a monthly basis, visit;
decisions.
                                                                                                           www.corelogic.co.nz/new-zealand-monthly-
                                                                                                           property-market-update
CoreLogic value measures
CoreLogic has a suite of products to measure property
prices. This ranges from simple market measurements                                                        If you would like to know more or obtain tailored
such as median or average sales prices through to                                                          data, analytics and insights for your business, please
stratified medians, various house price indices, and valuing                                               email us at reports@corelogic.co.nz.
groups of properties using Automated Valuation Models
such as E-valuer. The house price indices are available both
quarterly for completeness and monthly for reactivity.

The Quarterly CoreLogic House Price Index has been
specifically designed to track the value of a portfolio of
properties over time and is relied upon by New Zealand
regulators and industry as the most accurate measurement
of housing market performance. These value measures are
available for long time series and for either standard or
custom geographic areas and property types.




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 Published date: March 2018




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