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Dispatch No. 274 | 28 January 2019
Most Togolese mistrust electoral commission,
would prefer non-partisan, technical alternative
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 274 | Thomas Isbell and Hervé Akinocho
Summary
Since August 2017, Togo has been shaken by waves of protests by a coalition of opposition
parties known as C14 demanding constitutional, institutional, and electoral reforms resulting
in parliamentary and local elections as well as a constitutional referendum in a more
consensual atmosphere (Togo Times, 2018). The success of such an electoral marathon
would depend in part on how much the various stakeholders trust the institutions involved in
the electoral process, particularly the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI in
French). As might be expected, a battle ensued for control of the CENI, whose members
represent political parties as well as civil society and the administration, ultimately leading
the C14 to boycott the CENI and the parliamentary elections conducted on 20 December
2018 (Atlantic Infos, 2018; Lemask, 2018; Déguénon, 2018; RFI, 2018a, 2018b; Togosite.com,
2018; Digitalcongo.net, 2018).
Public trust in the electoral commission has been an ongoing issue as past elections have
been marked by disputed results and charges of CENI bias (Vampouille, 2010; lemonde.fr,
2015; togotribune.com, 2018).
Findings from Afrobarometer’s most recent survey in Togo show that popular trust in the
electoral commission is low, and while citizens support elections as the best means for
choosing leaders, perceived election quality has decreased. Most Togolese – even those
who trust the electoral commission – say a non-partisan, technical electoral commission
would work better.
Afrobarometer survey
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude
surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues in African
countries. Six rounds of surveys were conducted in up to 37 countries between 1999 and
2016, and results of Round 7 surveys (2016/2018) are currently being disseminated.
Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice
with nationally representative samples.
The Afrobarometer team in Togo, led by the Center for Research and Opinion Polls (CROP),
interviewed 1,200 adult Togolese in November 2017. A sample of this size yields country-level
results with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Previous
surveys were conducted in Togo in 2012 and 2014.
Key findings
▪ Only one in four Togolese (26%) say they trust the Independent National Electoral
Commission “somewhat” or “a lot,” an 11-percentage-point drop since 2014. Urban
residents, the most educated, and the poorest citizens express the least trust in the
commission.
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 1▪ Only four in 10 citizens (40%) say the most recent national election was generally free
and fair, a 21-point decline from 61% who felt that way in 2014.
▪ While three-fourths (74%) of Togolese voice support for choosing leaders through
elections, the share who say that alternative methods could be explored has risen
from 16% in 2012 to 25% in 2017.
▪ More than seven in 10 Togolese (73%) say that a non-partisan, technical electoral
commission would be better equipped for managing and proclaiming election
results. Even citizens who say they trust the existing “political” commission strongly
favour a non-partisan version.
Declining trust in the electoral commission
Only one in four Togolese (26%) say they trust the IEC “somewhat” or “a lot,” a decline from
37% in 2014. The proportion of citizens who say they trust the commission “just a little” or “not
at all” has climbed by 12 percentage points since 2012, to 65% (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Trust national electoral commission | Togo | 2012-2017
100%
80%
65%
57%
60% 53%
40%
37%
34%
20% 26%
0%
2012 2014 2017
Trust just a little/not at all Trust somewhat/a lot
Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough
about them to say: The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)?
Low or no trust in the electoral commission is especially prevalent among urban residents
(77%), the most educated (78% of Togolese with post-secondary education), and citizens
who experience moderate (65%) or high (69%) levels of lived poverty.1 Citizens who say they
frequently discuss political matters with friends and family are also more likely to mistrust the
commission (82%) than those who talk about politics only occasionally (65%) or never (60%)
(Figure 2).
1
Afrobarometer assesses lived poverty based on responses to the following questions: “Over the past year,
how often, if ever, have you or anyone in your family gone without: Enough food to eat? Enough clean water
for home use? Medicines or medical treatment? Enough fuel to cook your food? A cash income?“
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 2Figure 2: Trust national electoral commission | by socio-demographic group | Togo
| 2017
Rural 57% 32%
Urban 77% 18%
Post-secondary 78% 19%
Secondary 66% 24%
Primary 61% 30%
No formal education 60% 33%
High lived poverty 69% 24%
Moderate lived poverty 65% 24%
Low lived poverty 59% 33%
No lived poverty 47% 53%
Frequently discuss politics 82% 16%
Occasionally discuss politics 65% 28%
Never discuss politics 60% 29%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Trust just a little/not at all Trust somewhat/a lot
Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough
about them to say: The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)?
Trust in the electoral commission varies considerably by ethnic group and by how
respondents feel their ethnic group is treated by the government. Ethnicity has been highly
salient and politically polarized in Togo’s modern history as a legacy of ethnic clientelism by
the former German colonialists. In particular, the politically and economically dominant Ewé
group and the Northern Kabrai groups competed for power in politics and the military
apparatus during the first decades of independence (Horowitz, 2001).
It is important to note that breaking down survey responses by ethnic group requires
analyzing small sub-samples, producing results with very large margins of error. Thus, except
for the Ewé and Kabyè (the dominant group among the northern Kabrai), reported
percentages should be considered indicative and interpreted with caution. With this caveat
in mind, the data suggest that trust in the IEC is highest among Togolese from the Kabyè
(51%) and Lama (41%) ethnic groups, while mistrust is highest among respondents from the
Ikposso (77%), Ewé (78%), Tem (80%), Mina (85%), and Ouatchi (88%) groups (Figure 3).
Respondents who say their ethnic group is “never” treated unfairly by the government are
more likely to trust the IEC “somewhat” or “a lot” (39%) than those who believe their ethnic
group is “sometimes,” “often,” or “always” treated unfairly (19%-21% trust the IEC) (Figure 4).
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 3Figure 3: Trust national electoral commission | by ethnic group | Togo | 2017
Kabyè 41% 51%
Lama (Lamba) 35% 41%
N’Tcha (Bassar) 63% 37%
Ben (Moba) 50% 37%
Nawdem (Losso) 59% 34%
Adja 65% 33%
Ifè (Ana) 72% 21%
Ewé 78% 18%
Tem (Kotokoli) 80% 14%
Ikposso (Akposso) 77% 14%
Mina (Guen) 85% 12%
Ouatchi 88% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Trust just a little/not at all Trust somewhat/a lot
Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough
about them to say: The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)?
Figure 4: Trust national electoral commission | by treatment of ethnic group | Togo
| 2017
100%
19% 20%
80% 21%
39%
60%
40% 76% 75%
71%
52%
20%
0%
Never treated Sometimes Often treated Always treated
unfairly treated unfairly unfairly unfairly
Trust IEC just a little/not at all Trust IEC somewhat/a lot
Respondents were asked:
- How often, if ever, are [members of your ethnic group] treated unfairly by the government? –
- How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough about them to
say: The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)?
Compared to 33 other countries in Africa surveyed in 2016/2018, Togo ranks fourth in popular
mistrust in the national electoral commission, behind Gabon (82%), Sudan (71%), and São
Tomé and Príncipe (67%) (Figure 5). Togolese are twice as likely to express little or no trust in
their electoral commission as Mozambicans (29%), Gambians (31%), Sierra Leoneans (33%),
and Burkinabè (33%).
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 4Figure 5: Low or no trust in national electoral commission (%) | by country
| 34 countries | 2016/2018
100
82
80
71
67
63 6464 65
5959
60 5454 56 57
49 50 5151 52
44 46 47 48
39 4040 414141 42 43
40 35
29 31 3333
20
0
Senegal
Niger
Benin
eSwatini
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Mauritius
Uganda
Morocco
Mozambique
Madagascar
Sierra Leone
Namibia
Mali
Lesotho
Liberia
Kenya
Gabon
Burkina Faso
Botswana
Tunisia
Côte d'Ivoire
Cameroon
Guinea
Togo
Gambia
Malawi
Tanzania
Ghana
Cabo Verde
Nigeria
Sudan
South Africa
São Tomé and Príncipe
34-country average
Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough
about them to say: The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)?
How free and fair are elections?
One factor that may affect how much citizens trust the electoral commission is their
assessment of how well the commission performs in ensuring free and fair elections. In Togo,
the population’s evaluations of elections have worsened in recent years. In 2017, only four in
10 respondents (40%) say the last national
election (the 2015 presidential contest) was
Do your own analysis of Afrobarometer data – “completely free and fair” or “free and fair
on any question, for any country and survey with minor problems,” a 21-percentage-point
round. It’s easy and free at decline from 61% who felt that way in 2014
www.afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis. about the 2013 parliamentary election.
Almost half (47%) of Togolese citizens now
see the last national election as “not free
and fair” or “free and fair with major problems” (Figure 6).
Rural residents are more likely than urbanites to judge the last election as generally free and
fair (45% vs. 39%), as are young respondents (42% of those aged 18-35) compared to their
elders (35%-36%) (Figure 7). Poorer respondents are more critical of the most recent election
than their better-off counterparts.
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 5Figure 6: Freeness and fairness of the last national election | Togo | 2012-2017
100%
80%
61%
60% 47%
47%
40% 40%
20% 34% 34%
0%
2012 2014 2017
Completely free and fair/Free and fair with minor
problems
Respondents were asked: On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last
national election, held in [20xx]?
Figure 7: Freeness and fairness of the last national election | by socio-demographic
group | Togo | 2017
Rural 45% 41%
Urban 31% 56%
Women 39% 44%
Men 40% 50%
56+ years 35% 50%
36-55 years old 36% 51%
18-35 years old 42% 44%
Post-secondary 36% 55%
Secondary 40% 47%
Primary 42% 42%
No formal education 32% 52%
High lived poverty 33% 53%
Moderate lived poverty 39% 47%
Low lived poverty 52% 34%
No lived poverty 53% 35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Completely free and fair/Free and fair with minor problems
Not free and fair/Free and fair with major problems
Respondents were asked: On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last
national election, held in 2015?
As might be expected, citizen perceptions of election quality seem to align to some extent
with trust in the electoral commission. For example, among those who trust the IEC “a lot,”
more than three-fourths (77%) see the last election as generally free and fair. But among
those who don’t trust the IEC at all, only 19% say the election was free and fair (Figure 8).
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 6Figure 8: Freeness and fairness of the last national election | by trust in the electoral
commission | Togo | 2017
100%
80% 19%
60% 49%
57%
77%
40%
69%
20% 40% 30%
0% 12%
Don't trust IEC at Trust IEC just a Trust IEC Trust IEC a lot
all little somewhat
Election was completely free and fair/had minor problems
Election was not free and fair/had major problems
Respondents were asked:
- How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough about them to
say: The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)?
- On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election, held
in 2015?
In line with their mixed appraisals of election quality, almost half of Togolese say that
opposition candidates are at least “sometimes” prevented from running. One in five
respondents (19%) say this is “often” or “always” the case, in addition to 26% who say it
happens “sometimes” (Figure 9). These views have not changed significantly since the
previous survey in 2014.
Figure 9: Opposition prevented from running in elections | Togo | 2014-2017
100%
80% 22% 19%
Often/Always
60% 26% 26%
40% Sometimes
20% 46% 48%
Never
0%
2014 2017
Respondents were asked: In your opinion, during this country’s elections how often are opposition
candidates prevented from running for office?
Support for elections as the best way to choose leaders
Despite weak popular trust in the electoral commission and mixed reviews of election quality,
three out of four Togolese (74%) still say regular, open, and honest elections are the best way
to choose the country’s leaders. But support for elections has declined somewhat over the
past five years, from 82% in 2012, while the proportion of citizens who think that other
methods for selecting leaders might be preferable has increased from 16% to 25% (Figure 10).
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 7Figure 10: Choose leaders through elections vs. other methods | Togo | 2012-2017
100%
82% 77% 74%
80%
60%
40% 25%
21%
16%
20%
0%
2012 2014 2017
Choose leaders through elections
Choose leaders through other methods
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: We should choose our leaders in this country through regular, open, and honest elections,
Statement 2: Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt other methods for
choosing this country’s leaders.
(% who “agree” or “agree very strongly” with each statement)
The popular preference for elections is strong across key socio-demographic groups, with
above-average support among citizens with post-secondary education (82%) and below-
average support among the wealthiest (63%) (Figure 11).
Figure 11: Choose leaders through elections vs. other methods | by
socio-demographic group | Togo | 2017
Rural 75% 23%
Urban 71% 27%
Women 73% 26%
Men 74% 24%
56+ years 75% 24%
36-55 years old 77% 23%
18-35 years old 71% 26%
Post-secondary 82% 17%
Secondary 75% 24%
Primary 68% 30%
No formal education 73% 24%
High lived poverty 71% 26%
Moderate lived poverty 74% 25%
Low lived poverty 78% 21%
No lived poverty 63% 38%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Choose leaders through elections
Choose leaders through other methods
(% who “agree” or “agree very strongly” with each statement)
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 8Support for a non-partisan, technical electoral commission
One way to improve the IEC’s performance, and thus perhaps the quality of Togo’s
elections, may be to change the way the commission is constituted. In place of a
commission made up of 17 members representing parliamentary and extra-parliamentary
political parties as well as civil society and the administration, a large majority (73%) of
Togolese say that a non-partisan, technical electoral commission would be better suited for
organizing and proclaiming election results (Figure 12).
Regardless of how much they trust the existing national electoral commission, at least two-
thirds of Togolese say that a non-partisan, technical IEC would be better at managing and
announcing election results. Approval of such a non-political and technical alternative is
highest among those who say they don’t trust the electoral commission at all (79%), but even
those who trust the electoral commission “a lot” widely support a non-partisan alternative
(68%) (Figure 13).
Figure 12: Would a non-partisan, technical electoral commission be better? | Togo
| 2017
Agree/Strongly agree
16%
11% Disagree/Strongly
disagree
73% Neither agree nor
disagree/Don't
know/Refused
Respondents were asked: Please tell me whether you disagree or agree with the following statement,
or haven’t you heard enough to say: In Togo, a technical electoral commission made up of
technocrats with no affiliation with any political party would be better for the organization and
proclamation of election results?
Figure 13: Non-partisan, technical CENI would be better | by trust in the electoral
commission | Togo | 2017
100%
79%
80% 74% 73%
68%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Don't trust IEC Trust IEC just a Trust IEC Trust IEC a lot
at all little somewhat
(% who “agree” or “strongly agree” that a technical CENI would be better)
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 9Conclusion Alongside a steep decline in popular trust in the electoral commission, fewer citizens than in the past see their most recent national election as free and fair. And while elections still have majority support as the best way to choose leaders, this support has weakened as well. Overall, a large majority of Togolese say that a non-partisan, technical electoral commission would be better at managing and announcing election results. Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 10
References Akinocho H. (2018). Les Togolais sont prêts à s’engager pour le contrôle citoyen suite à la décentralisation. Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 215. http://afrobarometer.org/sites/ default/files/publications/Dispatches/ab_r7_dispatchno215_decentralisation_au_togo.pdf. Atlantic Infos. (2018). Togo: La C14 rend public un mémorandum sur la feuille de route de la CEDEAO. http://www.atlanticinfos.com/index.php/categories/k2-categories/item/456-togo-la- c14-rend-public-un-memorandum-sur-la-feuille-de-route-de-la-cedeao. CROP. (2015). La CENI peine à gagner la confiance des Togolais. http://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/press-release/togo/tog_r6_pr_ceni.pdf. Deguenon, V. (2018). Togo – Céni: Un nouveau pas vers l’organisation des élections le 20 Décembre malgré les protestations. https://beninwebtv.com/2018/08/togo-ceni-un-nouveau-pas-vers- lorganisation-des-elections-le-20-decembre-malgre-les-protestations/. Digitalcongo.net. (2018). Togo: Des élections législatives sous tension. https://www.digitalcongo.net/article/5c1b87bbaae0500004225e62/. Horowitz, D. L. (2001). Ethnic groups in conflict. Updated edition with a new preface. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Lemask, S. (2018). La C14 s’offusque du communiqué de la cour constitutionnelle. http://togo- online.co.uk/togo/la-c14-soffusque-du-communique-de-la-cour-constitutionnelle/. Lemonde.fr. (2015). Togo: Battu, le candidat de l'opposition conteste la victoire du président élu. https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2015/04/29/faure-gnassingbe-rempile-pour-un- troisieme-mandat-presidentiel-au-togo_4624696_3212.html. RFI. (2018a). Elections au Togo: La Céni publie son chronogramme. http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20180820-elections-togo-ceni-publie-son-chronogramme. RFI. (2018b). Togo: La Céni ira jusqu’au bout avec ou sans l’opposition. http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20181124-togo-ceni-poursuit-travaux-boycotte-opposition-legislatives. Togo Times. (2018b). L’Ufc va siéger à la Ceni et non les FDR, Conseiller de M Olympio. https://www.togotimes.info/index.php/politique/item/2271-l-ufc-va-sieger-a-la-ceni-et-non-les- fdr-conseiller-de-m-olympio. Togotribune.com. (2018). Togo, CENI: Le mensuel d’informations « Le bulletin », la trouvaille du controversé Kodjona Kadanga pour siphonner les ressources du pays. https://togotribune.com/news/togo-ceni-le-mensuel-dinformations-le-bulletin-la-trouvaille-du- controverse-kodjona-kadanga-pour-siphonner-les-ressources-du-pays/. Vampouille T. (2010). Togo: L'opposition conteste la réélection de Gnassingbé. http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2010/03/06/01003-20100306ARTFIG00506-montee-de- fievre-autour-de-l-election-au-togo-.php. Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2019 11
Thomas Isbell is a PhD student at the University of Cape Town in South Africa. Email:
tisbell@afrobarometer.org.
Herve Akinocho is director of the Center for Research and Opinion Polls (CROP), the
Afrobarometer national partner in Togo. Email: herve.akinocho@crop-africa.org.
Afrobarometer is produced collaboratively by social scientists from more than 30 African
countries. Coordination is provided by the Center for Democratic Development (CDD) in
Ghana, the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, the Institute for
Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi in Kenya, and the Institute for Empirical
Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in Benin. Michigan State University (MSU) and the
University of Cape Town (UCT) provide technical support to the network.
Financial support for Afrobarometer Round 7 has been provided by the Swedish International
Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, the Open Society
Foundations, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation,
the U.S. State Department, the U.S. Agency for International Development via the U.S.
Institute of Peace, the National Endowment for Democracy, and Transparency International.
Donations help the Afrobarometer Project give voice to African citizens. Please consider
making a contribution (at www.afrobarometer.org) or contact Felix Biga
(felixbiga@afrobarometer.org) to discuss institutional funding.
For more information, please visit www.afrobarometer.org.
/Afrobarometer @Afrobarometer
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 274 | 28 January 2019
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