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Mutual Fund Review November 19, 2009 | Mutual Fund
August 19, 2015
Mutual Fund
ReviewMutual Fund Review
August 19, 2015
Equity Markets ....................................................................................... 2
Debt Markets.......................................................................................... 3
MF industry synopsis ............................................................................ 4
MF Category Analysis............................................................................ 5
Equity funds...................................................................................... 5
Equity diversified funds ....................................................................... 6
Equity Infrastructure fund.................................................................... 7
Equity Banking Funds .......................................................................... 8
Equity FMCG........................................................................................ 8
Equity Pharma Funds .......................................................................... 9
Equity Technology Funds.................................................................... 9
Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) ....................................................... 10
Balanced funds ............................................................................... 11
Monthly Income Plans (MIP) .......................................................... 11
Arbitrage Funds .............................................................................. 12
Debt funds ...................................................................................... 13
Liquid Funds ...................................................................................... 14
Income funds..................................................................................... 15
Gilt Funds ........................................................................................ 16
Gold ETFs: Medium term outlook benign......................................... 17
Model Portfolios .................................................................................. 18
Equity funds model portfolio.......................................................... 18
Debt funds model portfolio ............................................................ 19
Top Picks.............................................................................................. 20
Note: Whenever, returns for the scheme are shown in the report, they are for the growth option of the scheme.
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF ResearchCNX Nifty: Volatility increases in last few months Equity Markets
9000 Update
8500 Indian equity markets have been trading in a narrow range amid some
volatility in the last two months
8000
Profit booking after the steady rise of nearly 9% in June-July, a
7500 stalemate in the ongoing monsoon session of Parliament and renewed
weakness in Chinese equity markets weighed on sentiments. This
7000 resulted in a subdued performance thereafter
6500 The broader markets, however, continued their positive momentum
with the BSE midcap index blazing to hit a new life-time high
Nov-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Global markets recovered during July 2015 on receding concerns over
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Greece and the deal between Iran and the international community.
However, volatility increased post a sharp correction in the Chinese
Midcap, small caps outperform… market during August 2015
2.3
2.5 Worries over monsoons continue to recede with the overall deficit
2.0
coming down to 9% below its long term average for the period
0.9
1.5
-0.3
1.0
-0.7
-1.3
Return (%)
0.5 between June 1 and August 9, 2015. The sowing, domestically, has,
0.0 however, been encouraging post the initial spell of rains particularly in
-0.5
-1.0 pulses, rice and oilseeds. The same will help contain any sharp rise in
-1.5
-2.0 prices, going forward
BSE BSE BSE 500 BSE 100 BSE
Midcap Small Sensex
Cap Outlook
The fact that the markets factored in a slew of negativity surrounding
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research the Greek referendum, Chinese equity meltdown and weak monsoon
Returns : July 16, 2015– August 14, 2015 forecast domestically while overcoming the overhead resistance adds
IT shows maximum gain to the significance of this bullish turnaround
15
Continuance of FII buying in Indian equities is also likely to continue as
9.8
10 most emerging markets are facing various difficulties including a
-13.6
commodity sell-off, slowing growth and currency depreciation. In this
3.3
2.8
1.8
5
0.7
0.1
Return (%)
0 backdrop, India remains relatively well placed as short-term money
-5 flows there amid fast shrinking investment avenues
-1.3
-2.3
-3.6
-5.6
-5.7
-10
Structurally, the outlook for the Indian equity markets has improved
-15
significantly. This is on the back of a steep correction in commodities,
Reality
Auto
Con.Dura
FMCG
Metal
Healthcare
Sensex
PSU
Banking
Cap.Goods
Oil &Gas
IT
especially crude oil & industrial metals, 75 bps repo rate cut,
subsequent transmission of the same to the corporate balance sheets
and relatively stable exchange rates
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research However, given that the markets have already rallied significantly in the
Returns : July 16, 2015– August 14, 2015 last two years, particularly midcaps, some caution is required while
investing. The investment strategy should be to utilise any 100-200
Research Analyst points correction in Nifty to build the equity portfolio
Sachin Jain One of the major concerns for the market currently is the ongoing
sachin.jain@icicisecurities.com logjam in Parliament, which may derail the passage of important reform
Sheetal Ashar
legislations like GST and Land Acquisition Bill. The deferral of
sheetal.ashar@icicisecurites.com implementation of GST from April next year would be a major setback
for the markets
Isha Bansal
isha.bansal@icicisecurities.com Corporate India is witnessing green shoots in terms of recovery and
flow of operating leverage (increase in utilisation levels, change in
favourable product mix and lower input costs) and financial leverage
(improvement in working capital cycle and lower rates). This may
gradually translate to improved profitability in a few quarters
We expect markets to remain in a consolidation mode and undergo a
base building process in the coming months amid volatility on global
news flows and the result season. Any sharp correction should be
utilised to build the equity portfolio
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 2Debt Markets
G-Sec yields turn volatile after rallying significantly last Update
year In the third bi monthly monetary policy, RBI left the repo rate, CRR and
9.0 SLR unchanged due to front loading of the earlier rate cut, partial
transmission to bank lending rates and upside surprise in CPI in June.
8.5
RBI, however, maintained an accommodative stance and revised down
its January-March 2016 inflation projection by 20 bps to 5.8%
Yield (%)
8.0 The liquidity environment remains comfortable with net selling under
the LAF window averaging ~ | 3,345 crore in July (vs. borrowing of |
4,025 crore in June). Banks borrowed on an average |171 crore in July
7.5
2015 (until July 30) from the RBI’s marginal standing facility (MSF)
Nov-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
compared with | 623 crore in the previous month
CPI July 2015 slipped to an eight-month low of 3.78% while WPI came
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research in at -4.05% slightly below expectations. CPI food inflation (CFPI)
dropped substantially to 2.15% YoY (0.8% MoM). Core CPI is hovering
Fiscal roadmap
around 4.1% YoY (0.4% MoM). CPI June 2015 was maintained at
Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP Target
5.40%. WPI July 2015 stayed in the red at -4.05% for the ninth
FY15 (Revised Estimates) 4.1
consecutive month. Core WPI at -1.39 signifies slack demand for input
FY16 3.9
commodities
FY17 3.5
FY18 3.0 On easing liquidity, three months to 12 months CP/CD rates have eased
further by 10-20 bps in the last month. One year CP/CDs are currently
trading at 8.40% and 7.85%, respectively
Rates across maturities softened 10-20 bps during last month due to
Source: RBI, ICICIdirect.com Research improved liquidity conditions and benign inflation outlook
Brent crude oil fell sharply by around 18% during July on account of
G-sec yield curve shifts lower expectations of low demand, going forward, due to weak economic
data across the globe, especially from China and rise in supply from
8.2 Iran post lifting of international sanctions. Other widely used industrial
7.9 8.0 7.8
8.0 commodities like copper, zinc, rubber, sugar, etc. have also seen a
7.7
correction in global prices
Yield (%)
7.8 7.6 7.8
7.9
7.6
7.5 As the fall in crude and industrial commodities is inflationary and fiscal
7.4 positive, this will keep the outlook for bond markets upbeat
1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr Outlook
FII inflows into the Indian debt market have subsided as the limit for FII
13-Aug-15 16-Jul-15
investment in government securities has already been exhausted. FII
flows have been negative since April 2015 to the extent of US$524
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research million vs. net inflows of US$27 billion in FY15. With expectations of no
increase in the limit in the near term, the same is keeping the pressure
on the markets
Corporate bond yield becoming steeper
However, domestic mutual funds have been upbeat on the Indian debt
8.6 8.5 8.6
8.4 market outlook and have poured in | 1.31 lakh crore in the first four
8.5 8.5
8.3
months of FY16
8.4
Yield (%)
8.3 8.4 8.5 Concerns over below normal monsoons have subsided to a large
8.3
8.2 extent. As the fall in crude and industrial commodities is inflationary
8.1
and fiscal positive, this will keep the outlook for bond markets upbeat
8.0
1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr Indian debt markets remain attractive from a medium-term perspective
13-Aug-15 16-Jul-15 as the inflation trend remains on a downward trajectory and well within
RBI’s target range
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Investors may consider both duration funds as well as accrual funds
depending on their risk return profile
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 3MF industry synopsis
In July 2015, assets under management (AUM) grew 31% YoY to
| 1317267 crore with share of equity oriented funds at 30% from 25% in
July 2014. Total net inflows in MFs were | 119060 crore in July 2015
due to substantial inflows into liquid and income funds
Inflows into equity schemes were at | 6133 crore during July 2015.
Income funds received a handsome | 21713 crore of net inflows during
July 2015. Liquid funds received inflows to the tune of | 89978 crore
Exhibit 1: Equity AUM drives overall AUM
35% 1400000
32% 32% 31% 31% 31%
30% 31% 31% 1200000
29% 27%
25% 25% 1000000
23%
20% 19% 20% 800000
| Crore
15% 600000
10% 400000
1006452
1012824
1095653
1090309
1051343
1181356
1202196
1082807
1186364
1203547
1173294
1317267
959415
5% 200000
0% 0
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Total AUM (RHS) Growth (YoY)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 2: AUM share July 2014 Exhibit 3: AUM share July 2015…share of equity AUM increases
significantly in past one year
FOF(Overseas)
Other ETFs 0% FOF(Overseas)
Balanced
1% 2% Other ETFs 0%
Equity Balanced
1%
25% 3%
Equity
Income
30% Income
Gold ETFs 46%
42%
1%
Gold ETFs
0%
Money Market
Gilt Gilt
24%
1% Money Market 1%
23%
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com, Research
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com, Research
Exhibit 4: HDFC AMC maintains top position, Franklin Templeton records Exhibit 5: HDFC, Reliance highest contributors to increase in AAUM
highest YoY growth in AAUM DSP BlackRock
MF IDFC MF Others HDFC MF
1%
165013
200000 5% 13% 15%
155522
144693
175000 Jun-15 Jun-14
125502
150000 Kotak Mahindra Reliance MF
92730.2
MF 16%
125000
83693
4%
| Cr
74312
100000
54497.9
48076.6
Ipru MF
36036.5
75000
130036
118056
112914
Franklin 13%
98556
79441
69213
50987
43694
35521
33113
50000
Tempelton MF
25000 10% Birla Sunlife MF
SBI MF UTI MF 11%
Reliance
Tempelton
Mahindra
Ipru MF
IDFC MF
HDFC MF
Sunlife MF
UTI MF
SBI MF
BlackRock
Franklin
Kotak
MF
Birla
DSP
6% 6%
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 4MF Category Analysis
Equity funds
Midcap funds have significantly outperformed large cap funds in the
last year
Among sector funds, pharma funds delivered highest returns in the last
year
Exhibit 6: Pharma, midcap clear winners (returns as on August 16, 2015)
46.3
50
45
38.8
35.8
40
34.0
35
Midcap funds gained on multiple re-rating as a fall in
28.2
25.8
30
Returns (%)
24.2
23.9
commodity prices helped midcaps post better growth with
22.1
21.1
20.6
20.6
25
20.0
19.5
19.5
19.3
improved margins in Q1FY16
18.6
18.2
18.2
20
15.0
12.9
11.3
15
9.2
10
5.5
5
0
Pharma Mid cap Diversified Banking FMCG Technology Infrastructure Large Cap
1 year 3 Year 5 year
Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research ; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns
Exhibit 7: Inflow into equity funds moderates in July 2015 but still better Exhibit 8: Equity AUM soars led by record inflows, market rally
13500 10845 12273
10584
11500
393602
10076
372313
365166
9500 7946 8481
Net Inflow ( | Cr )
345739
345139
345129
340936
6324 450000 319478
314684
7500 560049636651 6133
297160
5364 400000
280397
5840
266742
251630
5500 350000
| lakh Crore
3500 300000
1500 250000
-500 200000
-2500 150000
-4500
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Net inflow (Equity + ELSS) Equity +ELSS
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 9: Deployment of equity funds
\
Exposure to banks and finance stocks together account for Consumer Industrial
Industrial
Allocation Banks Software Pharma Auto Finance Non- Construction Petroleum Capital
the highest proportion with 27% of equity assets followed Products
Durables Goods
by technology and pharma
| crore 78582 35410 29744 27164 24041 19826 17169 16022 15,892 14040
% of total 20.5 9.3 7.8 7.1 6.3 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 3.7
Source: Sebi, ICICIdirect.com Research, Sector Classification (as per Amfi)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 5Equity diversified funds
View
Short term: Positive Equity diversified funds delivered healthy returns last year. Midcap
Long-term: Positive funds were outperformers with 39% one year average return followed
by multicap funds with one year average return of 24% and then large
caps with 18% return against BSE Sensex return of 8% as on August
14, 2015
The fact that the markets factored in a slew of negative news
surrounding the Greek referendum, Chinese equity meltdown and weak
monsoon forecast domestically while overcoming the overhead
resistance adds to the significance of this bullish turnaround
Although earnings growth may remain muted in the next couple of
quarters, it is expected to improve significantly in FY17 and FY18. The
same may keep market sentiments upbeat
The structural medium to long term outlook for the Indian equity market
remains positive supported by lower commodity prices, benefit of
lower interest rates and policy action by the government to spur
investments and, consequently, overall growth. However, volatility is
likely to remain elevated in the near term led by the ongoing logjam in
Parliament, which may derail the passage of important reform
legislations like GST and land acquisition bill
The Sensex is currently trading at 17.3x FY16E EPS of | 1608 and 14.6x
FY17E EPS of | 1901, which provides comfort. Investors should
accumulate multicap funds following a buy on dips or SIP strategy
Caution is required in midcap and small cap mutual funds as they have
significantly outperformed large caps in the current market rally since
September 2013. Therefore, if the overall market volatility increases,
midcap and small caps funds in the near term may underperform.
Investment in the same should only be over a five year investment
horizon
Recommended funds
Large cap
Axis Equity
Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity
ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity
SBI Bluechip
UTI Opportunities
Diversified
Franklin India Prima Plus Fund
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan
Reliance Equity Opportunities
Midcap
HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund
SBI Magnum Global Fund
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 6Equity Infrastructure fund
View After a clear mandate, the government unveiled its 10-year agenda to
Short-term: Positive focus on infrastructure, especially in road & railways like the dedicated
Long-term: Positive freight corridor (US$80 billion), Diamond Quadrilateral (Mumbai
Ahmedabad bullet train preliminary cost pegged at | 65,000 crore),
Sagar Mala project (| 1 lakh crore project) and Bharat Mala project (|
55000 crore project). With increased focus on road development,
NHIDCL is set to award projects worth | 1.3 lakh crore over the next five
years with additional 1500 km of highways under the Bharat Mala
project whereas NHAI plans to award 20000 km of road projects (| 1.8
lakh crore) in the next couple of years. This lends comfort that there will
be tangible opportunities in the long run for infrastructure players
Secondly, the government's progress towards speeding up the decision
making process towards low hanging fruits/stuck project worth | 8 lakh
crore would not only lead to better execution but also improve the
liquidity of various infrastructure projects
Also, increase in allocation to road sector & ports, rationalisation of
capital tax gains regime for sponsors & tax pass through status for
infrastructure investment trusts (InvITs) and establishment of National
Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) with initial annual outflow of
| 20,000 crore in the recent Union Budget would pave the way for
greater opportunities for various infrastructure players
Thirdly, the relatively good monsoon than forecasted re-ignites the
hopes of softening inflation and interest rates, which could lead to
possible valuation upgrades on account of interest outgo and lower
discount rates
Fourthly, with the RBI's recent action allowing banks to issue long term
bonds for infrastructure with benefits such as relaxation of CRR & SLR
norms and longer duration of bonds, we believe the pressure on
developers to fund infrastructure projects would ease. Hence, cost of
funds and strain on cash flow are likely to reduce, going ahead
Going ahead, while we believe there would be opportunities in the
infrastructure, we remain selectively positive on the sector
Preferred Picks
Franklin Build India Fund Refer to
HDFC Infrastructure Fund www.icicidirect.com for
ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund details of the fund
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 7Equity Banking Funds
View
Short-term: Neutral Subdued profitability continued for PSU banks in the quarter ending
Long-term: Positive June 2015 due to lower growth (loan growth for most PSU Banks in
single digits), subdued margins and rising NPA provisions. Further,
there were no large gains on treasury investment front which supported
their financials in the last three quarters against higher provisions
Slippages i.e. fresh NPAs remain elevated for most PSU banks. During
the quarter, a large part of slippages came from the restructured book.
The management has indicated that NPA pain may continue for at least
the next two quarters
Private banks, on the other hand, continued with the healthy
performance on profitability
The recent reform measures planned under “Indradhanush” for PSU
banks including capitalisation of | 25000 crore for FY16 is positive over
the longer term. Appointment of private sector honchos can also be a
game changer in overall strategy management of PSU banks
We believe that, going ahead, asset quality woes and, consequently,
growth concerns for PSU banks will continue for the bulk of FY16E. We
suggest considering PSU bank stocks for a two-year investment
horizon. Though private banks are also seeing moderation, a steady
operational performance ahead should provide investors with better
returns over the next two or three years. The expected turnaround in
the economy should augur well for the banking sector, as a whole.
Hence, we remain positive on the sector over the long term
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Refer to
Reliance Banking Fund www.icicidirect.com for
UTI Thematic - Banking Sector Fund details of the fund
Equity FMCG
View FMCG companies continue to witness muted demand from both rural &
Short-term: Neutral urban India. With the significant correction in commodity prices, the
Long-term: Neutral industry has taken price cuts to pass on raw material benefit. This has
affected revenue growth mainly due to the absence of a price hike in
sales. However, a decline in commodity prices has resulted in a
considerable expansion in operating margins despite companies
increasing their advertisement & promotion (A&P) spend
In the last month, the valuation multiples of FMCG companies have
seen some contraction in the wake of stringent action by the food
regulator after Nestlé’s Maggi controversy. We believe recent events
would remain an overhang on FMCG stocks. This may result in a further
contraction of premium multiples it commands vis-à-vis the market
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential FMCG Fund Refer to
SBI FMCG Fund www.icicidirect.com
for details of the fund
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 8Equity Pharma Funds
View Strong visibility on the back of a good product basket and a reasonable
Short-term: Neutral base business growth continue to attract buying interest in the pharma
Long-term: Positive sector despite premium valuations
US and Indian formulations remain the main growth drivers for the
sector on the back of a strong pipeline and incremental product
launches. Healthy operating margins, relatively low leverage and strong
return ratios are some of the other attributes for most pharma players
However, the pharma sector has significantly outperformed other
sectors in the last few year. Therefore, they may undergo some
consolidation in the near term
Preferred Picks
Reliance Pharma Fund Refer to
SBI Pharma Fund www.icicidirect.com
UTI-Pharma & Healthcare for details of the fund
Equity Technology Funds
View Tier-I IT companies reported average 3.1% QoQ (2.3% estimate) dollar
Short-term: Neutral revenue growth in Q1FY16 vs. 1.2% decline in Q4FY15 and 3% in
Long-term: Positive Q1FY15 as Q1 is a seasonally strong quarter and cross currencies were
stable. Infosys reported stellar revenue beat, TCS and HCL Tech were
inline while Wipro was marginally below. Wage hikes, visa expenses,
business investments (S&M, onsite) were key margin headwinds which
were partially offset by currency tailwinds and operational efficiency.
FY16E commentary was upbeat led by healthy deal signings and
traction in digital technologies
Operationally, discretionary spending remains healthy in the US and led
growth while other markets (Europe, APAC) were soft. Insurance,
telecom and oil & gas verticals are structurally challenged and growth
continues to be uneven.
Average rupee has depreciated ~2% in Q2FY16E and could aid margins
leading to earnings upgrade in FY16E, FY17E. Upsides could be in line
with earnings upgrades given blended valuations are at ~17x FY17E.
However, sharp sell-offs should be used to accumulate given long-term
growth prospects.
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential Technology Fund Refer to
DSPBR Technology fund www.icicidirect.com for
details of the fund
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 9Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)
In India, three kinds of ETFs are available: Equity Index ETFs, liquid
ETFs and gold ETFs
An equity index ETF tracks a particular equity index such as the BSE
Sensex, NSE Nifty, Nifty Junior, etc
An equity index ETF scores higher than index funds on several grounds.
Traded volumes should be the major criterion that is used
The expense of investing in ETFs is relatively less by 0.50-1.00% in
while deciding on investment in ETFs. Higher volumes
comparison to an index fund. The expense ratio for ETFs is in the range
ensure lower spread and better pricing to investors...
of 0.50-0.75% excluding brokerage while for index funds the expense
ratio varies in the range of 1.0-1.5%. However, brokerage (which varies)
Tracking error, though it should be considered, is not the is applicable on ETFs while there are no entry loads now on index funds
deciding factor as variation among funds is not huge... The tracking error, which explains the extent of deviation of returns
from the underlying index, is usually low in ETFs as it tracks the equity
index on a real time basis whereas it is done only once in a day for
index funds
ETFs also provide liquidity as they are traded on stock exchanges and
investors may subscribe or redeem them even on an intra-day basis.
This is unavailable in index funds, which are subscribed/redeemed only
on a closing NAV basis
There are over 400 ETFs traded globally. ETFs are transparent and cost
efficient. The decision on which ETF to buy should be largely governed
by the decision on getting exposure in that asset class
Volumes are higher only in the Goldman Sachs Benchmark ETFs and
tracking error is also lowest at 0.01%. Therefore, it is our top pick for
investors wanting Nifty-linked returns
CPSE ETF is a new entry in the Goldman Sachs ETF offering. The ETF
invests in selective 10 PSU stocks and has been listed on the exchange
since April. It has delivered healthy 45% return since its launch. Also,
bonus units at the end of the year will also provide additional benefit
Exhibit 10: CPSE ETF leads outflows Exhibit 11: AUM moderates
1000 10000
8060
773
7795
752
7404
7322
7317
7170
7056
800 623
6702
8000
5997
Net Inflow ( | Cr )
429 492
5465
600
5239
5083
4737
400 211 6000
128
| Crore
200 51 73 4000
0
2000
-200
-400 -216 0
-334
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
-600 -439
-800 -579
Nov-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Sep-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Dec-14
Other ETFs
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 10Balanced funds
View Balanced funds are hybrid funds. More than 65% of the overall portfolio
Short-term: Positive is invested in equities. Hence, as per provisions of the Income Tax Act,
Long-term: Positive 1961, any capital gains over one year become tax free. Also, dividends
declared by funds are tax free
In case you separately invest 35% of your investible corpus in a debt
fund, the same will be subject to higher taxation. However, if the whole
corpus is invested in balanced funds, 100% shall have lower taxation
applicable as mentioned above
Investors with a limited investible surplus and a lower risk After a sharp rally in equity markets, the funds can be a preferred
appetite but with a willingness to invest in equities can investment avenue as the debt proportion serves to protect on
look to invest in these funds intermediate relief rallies or the downturn while providing 65%
participation on further upsides
Exhibit 12: Moderate inflow… Exhibit 13: …leads to AUM growth
34550
5000
32259
4500 38000
4419
28749
4000
27015
33000
26507
26368
25792
24490
3500
22769
Net Inflow ( | Cr )
28000
| Crore
21080
3000
18277
17293
23000
16217
2500 1789
2000 2075 1491 18000
732 879
1500 1358
1235 1183 13000
1000 835 1202
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
500 348 448
0
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Dec-14
Balanced
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Advantage Fund
HDFC Balanced Fund
Tata Balanced Fund
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
Monthly Income Plans (MIP)
View An MIP offers investors an option to invest in debt with some
Short-term: Neutral participation in equity, ~10-25% of the portfolio. They are suitable for
Long-term: Positive investors who seek higher return from a debt portfolio and are
comfortable taking nominal risk. The debt corpus of the portfolio
provides regular income while the equity portion of the fund provides
alpha. However, returns can also get eroded by a fall in equities
MIP should be a preferred debt investment for funds that MIPs can be classified into aggressive MIP and conservative MIP based
need to be parked for over two years
on its equity allocation. Risk averse investors should invest in MIPs with
lower equity allocation to avoid capital erosion
The change in taxation announced in the Union Budget 2014, shall be
applicable to MIP funds (refer to debt funds section for details)
Preferred Picks
Birla Sun Life MIP II - Savings 5 Plan
ICICI Prudential MIP 25
DSPBR MIP Fund
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 11Arbitrage Funds
View Arbitrage funds seek to exploit market inefficiencies that get manifested
Short-term: Positive as mispricing in the cash (stock) and derivative markets
Long-term: Positive
Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market
scenario. A directional movement in the broader index attracts
speculators in the market and cost of funding makes futures positions
biased
Arbitrage funds are classified as equity funds as they invest into equity
share and equity derivative instruments. Since these are classified as
equity funds for taxation, dividends declared by the funds are tax free.
No capital gains tax will be applicable if they are sold after a year
These funds can be looked upon as an alternative to liquid funds.
However, for these funds, returns totally depend on arbitrage
opportunities available at a particular point of time and investors should
consider reviewing the same before investing. Returns of arbitrage
funds are non-linear and, therefore, unsuitable for investors who want
consistent return across time period
Arbitrage funds should be used as a liquid investment and should not
be a major part of the investor’s portfolio
Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market
scenario. Directional movement in the broader index attracts
speculators in the market while cost of funding makes future positions
biased
In case of positive movement, long build-up in futures puts pricing in an
upward bias and creates a window for direct arbitrage positions
On the other hand, negative bias attracts fresh sellers in the market.
Speculators try to sell the stock much cheaper than theoretical prices. In
such situations, reverse arbitrage opportunities arise
On the other hand, a range bound market does not give ample room to
create arbitrage positions
Preferred Picks
ICICI Prudential Equity - Arbitrage Fund – Regular
IDFC Arbitrage Fund - (Regular)
Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund
SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 12Debt funds
Exhibit 14: Category average returns
14.00
11.77
11.55
12.00
9.72
8.93
8.90
8.90
8.87
8.77
8.74
8.72
10.00
8.40
8.14
8.13
Within short-term funds, credit opportunities funds have 8.00
delivered better consistent returns over a longer period
%
4.77
6.00
3.36
4.00
2.00
0.00
6 months 1 year 3year
Gilt Funds Income LT Income ST Income UST Liquid
Source: ACE MF, ICICIdirect.com Research
Note : Returns as on August 16, 2015; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns
Exhibit 15: Deployment of funds: July 2015
Government Securities
1 year and above Corporate Debt CP
Bank CD
Investment into securities with maturity of less than 90 182 days to 1 year Bank CD Treasury Bills
days and more than one year dominates total investments
by mutual funds
CBLO
90 days to 182 Bank CD
days Other Money Market
Investments
Corporate Debt
Less than 90 days CP Bank CD
PSU Bonds
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
Securitised Debt
Bank FD
Source: SEBI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Note : Holding as percentage of total AUM
Exhibit 16: G-Sec yield curve Exhibit 17: Corporate bond curve
8.1 8.7
7.9 8.0 8.6
7.8 8.5 8.5 8.5
8.6
7.9 8.5
7.9 8.4 8.4
8.4
Yield (%)
Yield (%)
7.8 8.3
8.3
8.3
7.7 8.2
7.7
8.1
7.6 8.0
7.5
7.5 1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr
1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr
13-Aug-15 16-Jul-15
13-Aug-15 16-Jul-15
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 13Liquid Funds
View
Neutral Liquid fund returns moderated to 8.1-8.7% pre tax from over 9% earned
in the previous year
The Reserve Bank’s proactive liquidity management operations ensured
that Call rates stayed range bound around the policy rate reducing day-
to-day volatility. The CBLO rates also hovered just above the repo rate.
With an improvement in liquidity conditions, the certificate of deposit
and commercial paper rates in the three month bracket also eased by
over 100 bps to the 7.5-8% range from 9.1-9.3%. The same is likely to
moderate returns in liquid funds going forward
For less than a year, individuals in the higher tax bracket should opt for
dividend option as the dividend distribution tax @ 28.325% is
marginally lower. Also, though the tax arbitrage has reduced, they still
earn better pre-tax returns over bank savings (3-4%) and current
accounts (0-3%)
Changes in taxation rules announced in Union Budget 2014 are also
applicable to liquid funds, as post tax returns in less than a three-year
period gets reduced for individuals falling in the higher tax bracket (30%
tax slab) and for corporates
Exhibit 18: Call rates near repo rate Exhibit 19: …CP/CD yields decline
12 10.0
11 9.5
10
9.0
9
%
%
8 8.5
7 8.0
6 7.5
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Apr-15
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Call rate 3M CD 3M CP
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 20: Flows into liquid funds remain volatile on institutional activity Exhibit 21: AUM increases in July due to net inflow
100,611
85,848
101,592
300738
89,978
278807
120,000
276070
266722
265358
330000 253899
245035
244220
25,589
228149
80,000 206979
280000
8,784
184525
178491
40,000
162562
Net Inflow ( | Cr )
230000
| Crore
0
180000
-5,864
-15,657
-40,000
-47,330
130000
-50,786
-52,460
-80,000
-67,318
80000
-120,000
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Mar-15 -112,810
-160,000
-200,000
Money Market
Nov-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Dec-14
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Preferred Picks
HDFC Cash Management Fund - Savings Plan
SBI Magnum InstaCash
Reliance Liquid Fund - Treasury Plan
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 14Income funds
View
Ultra-short term: Positive In the income funds category, long term debt funds outperformed
Short-term: Positive delivering 11.5% absolute return in last year (as on August 16, 2015)
Long-term: Positive We continue to remain positive on the Indian debt markets as they are
well placed to benefit from a structural improvement in macroeconomic
data and expect the positive undertone of the debt market to sustain
The corporate bond market segment continues to be attractive
especially with expectations of an improvement in corporate
profitability, going ahead, and an improved economic outlook. The
credit opportunities funds are better placed due to stable returns and a
change in taxation warranting a minimum holding period of three years
to avail indexation benefits
The recent sell-off in yields of government securities provide an
investment opportunity for aggressive investors to add duration funds
with a one or two year investment horizon.
Credit opportunities fund can also be looked upon by investors who
prefer stable returns profile
Exhibit 22: Income funds witness substantial inflows Exhibit 23: AUM increases
25,000
21,713
19,844
555884
20,000
528900
522366
522178
520234
515773
514628
502154
500595
15,446
600000
475968
471651
461114
15,000
454495
550000
12,163
500000
Net Inflows
10,000
5,861
| Crore
450000
(| .Cr)
4,205
5,000 400000
350000
-152
0
-1,632
-2,510
300000
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
-5,000
-8,927
-10,080
Oct-14 -10,567
-10,000
Sep-14 -12,696
-15,000 Income
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
Recommended funds
Ultra Short Term Funds
Birla Sun Life Savings Fund
Ultra-short-term fund returns are attractive on risk adjusted Franklin India Ultra Short Term Bond Fund
basis ICICI Prudential Flexible income
Short Term Funds
Birla Sunlife short term fund
Short-term funds will benefit as the bond curve reverts to HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund
an upward slopping curve. Credit opportunities funds earn ICICI Pru Short Term Plan
the highest accrual and are the best in the category
Short Term Funds – Credit opportunities
Birla Sunlife Medium term
Franklin India Short term Plan
HDFC Corporate debt opportunities
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings
Dynamic bond funds are suitable for all types of investors Long term/Dynamic
and for longer duration. They can take exposure to all Birla Sunlife income plus
durations as per the interest rate outlook and switch ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund
between G secs and corporate bonds
IDFC dynamic bond fund
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 15Gilt Funds
View
Short-term: Neutral In July 2015, gilt funds delivered 11.7% absolute return in the last year,
Long-term: Neutral the highest among debt funds. We believe the odds remain in favour of
the government securities yield trending down over the next one or two
years. However, gilt funds will be less attractive due to the longer
holding period (more than three years) as lower accrual income will
neutralise the impact of moderate capital gains in the near term
The front loaded rate cuts by the RBI can push overall interest rates
down depending on how soon banks transmit it into the system by re-
pricing their assets and liabilities lower
The central government has signed a memorandum with the RBI setting
out a clear inflation objective to bring the inflation rate to the mid-point
of the band of 4 +/- 2%. CPI, as per our assessment, should average
close to 5% for FY16 (on assumption of normal monsoon and a stable
currency). The government’s commitment towards controlling price
shocks and steps taken to improve the supply chain are commendable.
Also, global prices that have corrected sharply are supportive be they
crude, metal or food prices. Hence, inflation should likely stay on the
intended path. This creates room for the RBI to cut rates by another
100-150 bps to earn a real return of ~1.5-2%
On the supply front, the Budget has pegged the market borrowing for
FY16 at | 6 lakh crore on a gross basis and | 4.56 lakh crore on a net
basis. Both gross and net market borrowings were close to market
expectations. Borrowings related concern is expected to come down,
given the government’s commitment towards reducing the fiscal deficit
to 3% of GDP by FY17
Aggressive investor can invest in gilt funds with an investment horizon
of one or two years
Recommended funds
Birla Sun Life Gilt Plus - PF Plan - Regular
ICICI Prudential LT Gilt Fund - PF Option - Regular
(Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
Exhibit 24: Net inflows as low Inflation increases rate cut expectation
2500
2090
2058
1813
2000
1439
Net Inflow ( | Cr )
1500
875
814
1000
367
500
190
164
132
110
-209
-279
0
-500
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Dec-14
Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 16Gold ETFs: Medium term outlook remain benign
Global gold prices after falling sharply by ~7% during July 2015 on
account of selling pressure form Chinese investors and expectations of
a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and strength in the dollar index,
recovered some of its losses in August 2015 after surprise devaluation
of its currency by Chinese authorities
The recent devaluation of Yuan by the Chinese government may
increase fear about currency war among emerging markets. The same
may provide some support to gold prices in the near term due to safe
heaven demand
However, the medium-term, investment demand for gold is largely
governed by the broader economic climate. One of the major
determinants of investment demand is inflationary concerns. With a low
Technically, after the multiyear bull phase during 2004-12, global economic growth environment adding to deflationary pressure,
gold prices corrected significantly. The violation of the long inflationary demand factor for gold remains absent in the near term
term trend line highlights the breach of a decade long trend
Another major determinant for global gold prices is real interest rates.
of out performance and signals a period of medium-term
With the US Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates, going forward,
consolidation
the opportunity cost of holding gold will increase while the same is
likely to put pressure on gold prices from a medium-term perspective
Exhibit 25: International gold price subdued… Exhibit 26: …domestic prices follows global trend
34000
1400
32000
1350
30000
1300
|
28000
1250
1200 26000
1150 24000
Apr-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
1100
1050
Nov-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Sep-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Price (|/10 grams)
Price ($/Ounce)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 27: Outflows for second year….
0
-32
-38
Net Inflow ( | Cr )
-47
-50
-69
-74
-76
-86
-105
-111
-111
-112
-131
Two years of outflow
-200
Nov-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Sep-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Source: Amfi, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 17Model Portfolios
Equity funds model portfolio
Investors who are wary of investing directly into equities can still get
returns almost as good as equity markets through the mutual fund route.
We have designed three mutual fund model portfolios, namely,
conservative, moderate and aggressive mutual fund portfolios. These
portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like
investment horizon, investment objective, scheme ratings, and fund
management.
We have changed the mutual funds portfolio in July, to include midcap
funds as we believe an improvement in the growth scenario may generate
better alpha in midcap stocks over large cap stocks
Exhibit 28: Equity model portfolio
Particulars Aggressive Moderate Conservative
Review Interval Monthly Monthly Quarterly
Risk Return High Risk- High Return Medium Risk - Low Risk - Low Return
Medium Return
Funds Allocation % Allocation
Franklin India Prima Plus 20 20 20
Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity 20 20 20
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan - - 20
UTI Opportunites Fund - 20 20
Reliance Long term Equity 20 - -
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery 20 20 20
HDFC Midcap Opportunities 20 20
Grand Total(a+b) 100 100 100
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 29: Model portfolio performance : One year performance (as on July 31,2015)
30%
25%
25%
21%
20%
16%
15%
%
10% 8%
5%
0%
Aggressive Moderate Conservative BSE 100
Aggressive Moderate Conservative BSE 100
Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research
Portfolio inception date : April 15, 2009
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 18Debt funds model portfolio
We have designed three different mutual fund model portfolios for different
investment duration namely less than six months, six months to one year
and above one year. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind
various key parameters like investment horizon, interest rate scenarios,
credit quality of the portfolio and fund management, etc.
Exhibit 30: Debt funds model portfolio
Particulars Time Horizon
0 – 6 months 6months - 1 Year Above 1 Year
Liquidity with
Objective Liquidity moderate return Above FD
Review Interval Monthly Monthly Quarterly
Very Low Risk - Medium Risk - Low Risk - High
Risk Return Nominal Return Medium Return Return
Funds Allocation % Allocation
Ultra Short term Funds
Birla SL Savings Fund 20
Franklin India Ultra Short Bond Fund 20
ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan 20
Short Term Debt Funds
Birla Sunlife Medium Term Plan 20
Birla Sunlife Short Term Fund 20 20
Birla Sunlife Short Term Opportunites Fund 20
Franklin India Short Term Income Fund 20
HDFC Medium Term Opportunities Fund 20
HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund 20 20
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings 20
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 20
IDFC SSI Short Term
Sundaram Select Debt 20
UTI Short Term Fund
Long Term/Dynamic Debt Funds
IDFC Dynamic Bond fund 20
Total 100 100 100
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 31: Model portfolio performance
12.0 11.10
9.82
10.0 9.24 9.28
8.33 8.37
8.0
6.0
%
4.0
2.0
0.0
0-6 Months 6Months - 1Year Above 1yr
Portfolio Index
Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, , ICICIdirect.com Research
*Index: 0-6 month’s portfolio – Crisil Liquid Fund Index; 6 months-1 year – Crisil Short term Index
Above 1 year: Crisil Composite Bond Index
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 19Top Picks
Exhibit 32: Category wise top picks
Equity
Category Top Picks
Largecaps Axis Equity Fund
Birla Sunlife Frontline equity Fund
ICICI Pru Focussed Bluechip Equity Fund
UTI Opportunities Fund
SBI Bluechip fund
Midcaps HDFC Midcap Opportunities Fund
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund
SBI Magnum Global Fund
Diversified Franklin India Prima Plus
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan
Reliance Equity Opportunities
ELSS Axis Long Term Equity
ICICI Prudential Tax Plan
Franklin India Tax shield
Debt
Liquid Funds HDFC Cash Mgmnt Saving Plan
ICIC Pru Liquid Plan
Reliance Liquid Treasury Plan
Ultra Short Term Birla Sunlife Savings Fund
Franklin India Ultra Short Term Bond Fund
ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan
Short Term Birla Sunlife Short Term Fund
HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund
ICICI Pru Short Term Plan
Credit Opportunities Fund Birla Sunlife Medium Term Plan
Franklin India Short term Plan
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings
Income Funds ICICI Prudenti Dynamic Bond Fund
Birla Sun Life Income Plus - Regular Plan
IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund
Gilts Funds ICICI Pru Gilt Inv. PF Plan
Birla Sunlife Gilt Plus
MIP Birla Sunlife Savings 5
ICICI Prudential MIP 25
(Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund)
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 20Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Disclaimer
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ICICI Securities Limited,
expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or Funds. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly
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