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NEWS U CAN USE March 19, 2021 - Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully - Nippon India ...
NEWS U CAN USE
                                  March 19, 2021

Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
The Week that was…
                       15th Mar to 19th Mar

2

    Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Indian Economy
• The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation rose 27-month high to 4.17% in Feb 2021
  from 2.03% in the previous month and 2.26% in the same month of the previous year. The
  WPI Food Index rose 3.31% in Feb 2021 from contraction of 0.26% in the previous month
  and growth of 1.11% in Dec 2020. Under food articles, WPI inflation for vegetables
  contracted 2.90% in Feb 2021 as compared to contraction of 20.82% in the previous
  month. WPI inflation for potato contracted 29.78% as compared to contraction of 22.04%
  in the previous month. WPI inflation for fuel and power rose 0.58% in Feb 2021 after
  contracting for seven consecutive months.
• India’s trade deficit widened to $12.62 billion in Feb 2021 from $10.16 billion in the same
  period of the previous year. Exports grew to $27.93 billion in Feb 2021 over the year from
  $27.74 billion in Feb 2020. Imports rose to $40.54 billion in Feb 2021 over the year from
  $37.90 billion in Feb 2020. For the period from Apr 2020 to Feb of 2021, trade deficit
  narrowed sharply to $84.62 billion from $151.37 billion in the same period of the previous
  year. Imports fell 23.11% on a yearly basis during the period from Apr 2020 to Feb 2021
  while exports came down 12.23%. Oil imports in Feb 2021 was 16.63% lower in dollar
  terms compared to the same period of the previous year while non-oil imports in dollar
  terms rose 16.34% on a yearly basis in Feb 2021.
• According to the Union Minister of State for Finance & Corporate Affairs, fiscal deficit for
  FY22 is estimated at 6.8%. The minister further added that under the restructured fiscal
  consolidation path the government aims to reach fiscal deficit at 4.5% of GDP by FY26.

3
      Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Indian Equity Market
                                                                                    • Indian equity markets settled for the
                       Domestic Equity Market Indices                                 week with modest losses. Bourses were
Indices                         19-Mar-21    1 Week Return YTD Return                 dragged       initially   by     weak
S&P BSE Sensex                  49,858.24       -1.84%                4.41%           macroeconomic data. Besides, elevated
Nifty 50                        14,744.00       -1.91%                5.45%           crude prices weighed on sentiment.
S&P BSE Mid-Cap                 20,044.50       -2.59%               11.72%
                                                                                    • Additionally, rising COVID-19 cases
S&P BSE Small-Cap               20,470.54       -3.48%               13.11%
                                                                                      increased the risk of a second wave.
Source: MFI Explorer
                                                                                      Market participants were worried after
                                                                                      Gujarat decided to impose night curfew
                       S&P BSE                   S&P BSE            S&P BSE
     Ratios
                        Sensex
                                    Nifty 50
                                                 Mid Cap           Small Cap          in Surat, Rajkot, Ahmedabad, and
                                                                                      Vadodara for the next fortnight owing
P/E                     34.71        40.16         56.58              743.48
P/B                     3.36         4.18           2.93               2.77           to rising cases of COVID-19 infection.
Dividend Yield          0.72         1.08           0.92               0.87
Source: BSE, NSE                                         Value as on Mar 19, 2021
                                                                                    • Further, elevated U.S. Treasury yield
                                                                                      triggered fears regarding outflow of
                        NSE Advance/Decline Ratio
                                                                                      foreign money from domestic equities
      Date             Advances   Declines Advance/Decline Ratio
                                                                                      to U.S. bond market.
  15-Mar-21               691           1316                   0.53
  16-Mar-21               913           1022                   0.89
  17-Mar-21               382           1582                   0.24
  18-Mar-21               425           1529                   0.28
Source: NSE

 4
              Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Indian Equity Market (contd.)
                            Sectoral Indices
                                    Last        Returns (in %)             • On the BSE sectoral front, majority of the
              Indices                                                        sectors closed in the red. S&P BSE Realty was
                                  Closing*      1-Wk    1-Mth
S&P BSE Auto                      23,000.7     -1.92%        -3.34%          the major loser, down 5.93%, followed by S&P
S&P BSE Bankex                    38,468.5     -3.82%        -4.62%          BSE Capital Goods and S&P BSE Oil & Gas,
S&P BSE CD                        32,432.4     -2.57%         1.87%          which dipped 5.20% and 4.06%, respectively.
S&P BSE CG                        21,087.9     -5.20%        -3.21%
                                                                           • Meanwhile, S&P BSE FMCG, S&P BSE Power
S&P BSE FMCG                      12,574.6     2.81%          2.37%
                                                                             and S&P BSE Metal were the only gainers, up
S&P BSE HC                        20,545.1     -3.48%        -3.69%
                                                                             2.81%, 0.64% and 0.06%, respectively.
S&P BSE IT                        25,995.5     -1.10%         2.17%
S&P BSE Metal                     13,879.3     0.06%          8.38%
S&P BSE Oil & Gas                 15,246.5     -4.06%        -1.21%
Source: Refinitiv                              *Value as on Mar 19, 2021

     Indian Derivatives Market Review
    • Nifty Mar 2021 Futures stood at 14,756.45, a premium of 12.45 points above the spot
      closing of 14,744.00. The total turnover on NSE’s Futures and Options segment for the
      week stood at Rs. 233.22 lakh crore as against Rs. 181.40 lakh crore for the week to Mar 12.
    • The Put-Call ratio stood at 0.88 compared with the previous week’s close of 0.99.
    • The Nifty Put-Call ratio stood at 1.20 compared with the previous week’s close of 1.02.

     5
                    Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Domestic Debt Market
                                                                                          • Bond yields fell as market participants
                 Debt Indicators         Current    1-Wk        1-Mth        6-Mth          expect open market operations (OMO)
                       (%)                Value     Ago          Ago          Ago
                                                                                            purchases by the Reserve Bank of India
Call Rate                                    3.25       3.22     3.21         3.41          (RBI) to continue till the current fiscal
91 Day T-Bill                                3.33       3.30     3.23         3.35
                                                                                            year end. Yields further fell on
                                                                                            expectations that RBI will cancel the last
05.22% 2025, (5 Yr GOI)                      5.66       5.77     5.56         5.41
                                                                                            scheduled weekly government securities
05.85% 2030, (10 Yr GOI)                     6.19       6.23     6.13         6.01          auction for the current financial year.
Source: Refinitiv                                              Value as on Mar 19, 2021
                                                                                          • Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper
                                                                                            (5.85% GS 2030) fell 4 bps to close at
                                   10 -Yr Benchmark Bond ( % )
                 6.22                                                                       6.19% from the previous week’s close of
                                                                                            6.23% after moving in a range of 6.17%
    Yield in %

                                                                                            to 6.25%.
                 6.18
                                                                                          • RBI conducted the auction of four
                                                                                            government securities- 5.15% GS 2025,
                 6.14                                                                       5.85% GS 2030 and 6.76% GS 2061 for a
                          15-Mar    16-Mar     17-Mar     18-Mar       19-Mar               cumulative amount of Rs. 33,000 crore,
           Source: CCIL
                                                                                            which was oversubscribed.

6
                    Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Domestic Debt Market (Spread Analysis)
                                                                                    • Yields on gilt securities fell by up to 12 bps
                                G-Sec Yield   Corporate Yield       Spread            across maturities, barring 2-year paper that
        Maturity
                                    (%)            (%)               bps              rose 5 bps and 30-year paper was steady.
                                                                                      Yield fell the most on 6-year paper.
                  1 Year            4.17            4.48               31           • Corporate bond yields rose in the range of 3
                                                                                      to 35 bps across the curve, leaving 10- & 15-
                  3 Year            5.10            5.71               61
                                                                                      year papers that fell 4 & 22 bps, respectively.
                  5 Year            5.85            6.62               77
                                                                                    • Spread between AAA corporate bond and gilt
            10 Year                 6.29            7.49              120             expanded in the range of 14 to 46 bps across
                                                                                      the segments, except 15-year paper that
Source: Refinitiv                                      Value as on Mar 19, 2021       contracted 12 bps and 10-year paper was
                                                                                      steady.
                                                      India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W-o-W)

                                                                                                                                 Change in bps
                   8.00                                                                                                    6
     Yield in %

                   5.00                                                                                                    -4

                   2.00                                                                                                    -14
                               3 Mths      6 Mths          1 Yr             5 Yrs         10 Yrs         20 Yrs   30 Yrs
           Source: Refinitiv                           Change in bps          19-Mar-21      12-Mar-21

 7
                      Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Regulatory Updates in India
• The Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways unveiled the vehicle scrapping policy,
  stating that vehicle owners who scrap their old vehicles are likely to receive financial
  incentives. The Union Government proposed to offer a road-tax rebate of up to 25% for
  personal vehicles and up to 15% for commercial vehicles. Vehicle manufacturers are also
  encouraged to offer a 5% discount on the purchase of a new vehicle in exchange for the
  scrapping certificate. In addition, if a new vehicle is purchased with a scrapping certificate,
  the registration fee may be waived.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its stance on cryptocurrencies, informing the
  government of its decision to pursue a ban on such instruments after previously expressing
  serious concerns. While stating that blockchain technology should be promoted, the central
  bank has challenged the utility of cryptocurrencies being classified as a currency. The central
  bank has also raised security concerns about cryptocurrencies, claiming that the anonymity
  of the transactions could lead to money laundering and terror financing. The regulator
  believes that allowing cryptocurrency into the economy will undo the current government's
  efforts to restrict black money movement, as a large amount of illicit cash stashed abroad
  might return through this path.
• According to media reports, The Reserve Bank of India will have to postpone the start of
  monetary policy normalisation by three months due to an increase in COVID-19 cases, but
  there is no major threat to the economy's recovery unless stringent lockdowns are
  reinstated.

8
      Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Regulatory Updates in India (contd..)
• Finance Minister introduced a Bill in Rajya Sabha to amend the Insurance Act, allowing for
  74% foreign direct investment (FDI) in the sector. Amendments to the Insurance
  Amendment Bill 2021 have been approved by the Union Cabinet. Currently, the maximum
  amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) allowed in life and general insurance is 49%,
  with Indian ownership and management control. Increased FDI would aid in the country's
  life insurance penetration. The country's life insurance premiums are 3.6% of GDP, well
  below the global average of 7.13%, and general insurance premiums are even worse, at
  0.94% of GDP, well below the global average of 2.88%.
• The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has proposed to streamline the initial
  public offering (IPO) process with unified payment interface (UPI) in application supported
  by blocked amount (ASBA) and redressal of investor grievances.
• Government has formed an expert advisory committee that will oversee the Startup India
  Seed Fund Scheme's overall execution and monitoring. According to an office
  memorandum from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT),
  the committee will evaluate and select incubators for allotment of funds under the
  scheme, track progress, and take all appropriate steps for efficient utilisation of funds
  against the scheme's objectives

9
      Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Global News/Economy
•    The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged in its monetary policy review.
     The U.S. Central Bank also decided to continue with its asset purchase program in which it
     buys at least $120 billion of bonds a month. The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated no rate
     hikes likely through 2023 despite an improving outlook and higher inflation. In addition,
     the U.S. Central Bank now expects the U.S. economy to grow by 6.5% in 2021 as compared
     to its earlier projection of 4.2% in Dec 2020.
•    A global rating agency has affirmed the sovereign ratings of the U.S. at 'AA+' with 'stable'
     outlook. The agency retained the ratings because of the country's strong institutions,
     dynamic and resilient economy, monetary policy stability, and unique position as the
     world's leading reserve currency issuer. However, the agency mentioned that the ratings
     were hindered by high general government debt and fiscal deficits, all of which
     deteriorated last year because of the pandemic's economic shock.
•    According to data of Commerce Department, U.S. retail sales fell 3% in Feb 2021 after
     rising by an upwardly revised 7.6% in Jan 2021.
•    Bank of England policymakers unanimously agreed to keep the benchmark rate unchanged
     at 0.10% and quantitative easing unchanged at GBP 895 billion. The committee stated that
     it would not tighten monetary policy until clear proof of substantial progress in removing
     spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation goal on a long-term basis. It also stated that if
     the outlook for inflation deteriorated the committee would be prepared to take whatever
     additional steps were required to fulfil its mandate.

10
        Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Global Equity Markets
                           Global Indices
                                                                           U.S.
                                                                           •   U.S. markets largely remained under
                                      1-Week             YTD
Indices                19-Mar-21
                                      Return            Return                 pressure as recent spike in treasury
Russell 3000            1,941.82       -1.00%           -0.55%
                                                                               yields renewed concerns about the
Nasdaq 100             12,866.99       -0.54%           -0.17%
                                                                               outlook for high-growth companies.
FTSE 100                6,708.71       -0.78%            3.84%             •   The downturn was restricted by U.S.
DAX Index              14,621.00       0.82%             6.58%                 Fed’s forecast on stronger economic
Nikkei Average         29,792.05       0.25%             8.56%                 growth and higher inflation this year
Straits Times           3,134.54       1.27%            10.22%                 although it expects to keep interest
Source: Refinitiv                               Value as on Mar 19, 2021       rates at near-zero levels through 2023.
 Europe
 •     European markets largely went up during the week with investors cheering the Fed's
       pledge to continue its accommodative policy and taking positive cues from the Bank of
       England's monetary policy announcement.

 Asia
 •     Majority of the Asian markets rose during the week after U.S. Fed reiterated its
       accommodative monetary policy and projected the U.S. economy to grow 6.5% this year.
       Nonetheless, rise in U.S. Treasury yield kept investors wary.

  11
               Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Global Debt (U.S.)
                    US 10-Year Treasury Yield Movement            •   Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 9
1.76                                                                  bps to close at 1.73%, from the previous
                                                                      week’s close of 1.64%. Yield rose to its
                                                                      highest level in 14 months.
1.67                                                              •   U.S. Treasury prices fell despite strong
                                                                      demand for a 20-year bond auction. Prices
                                                                      declined further after the U.S. Federal
                                                                      Reserve projected a sharp rise in
1.58                                                                  economic growth with no interest rate
              15-Mar     16-Mar   17-Mar    18-Mar    19-Mar
Source: Refinitiv
                                                                      hikes through 2023.
                                                                  •   The fall in treasury prices accentuated by
                                                                      the end of week as market participants
                                                                      expect higher inflation as the economic
                                                                      recovery in the U.S. gathers steam.

12
               Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Commodities Market
                                      Global Commodity Movement                                    Gold
                           11.00      Rebased to 10                                                •   Gold prices went up after U.S. Federal
 Global Commodity Prices

                           10.50                                                                       Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and
                                                                                                       indicated that there are no interest rate
                           10.00                                                      -8.76%           hikes likely through 2023 despite an
                                                                                      1.06%
                            9.50
                                                                                                       improving outlook and higher inflation.
                                                                                    1.28%

                            9.00
                                                                                                   Brent Crude
                             19-Feb-21                5-Mar-21                 19-Mar-21           •   Brent crude prices plunged after data from
                           Gold Spot ($/Oz)       Silver Spot ($/Oz)        Brent ($/bbl)
                                                                                                       the EIA showed that U.S. crude inventories
 Source: Refinitiv                                                                                     rose by 2.4 million barrels for the week
                                                                                                       ended Mar 12, 2021. Persisting concerns
                                   Performance of various commodities
                                                                                                       over the COVID-19 pandemic after some
Commodities                                           Last Closing*       1-Week Ago
                                                                                                       European countries halted the use of the
Brent Crude($/Barrel)                                    63.23                 69.30
                                                                                                       AstraZeneca vaccine also dampened
Gold ($/Oz)                                             1744.74               1726.41
                                                                                                       sentiments.
Gold (Rs/10 gm)                                          44788                 44177
Silver ($/Oz)                                            26.25                 25.91               Baltic Dry Index
Silver (Rs/Kg)                                           66744                 65835               •   The index rose during the week due to
Source: Refinitiv                                                      *Value as on Mar 19, 2021       improved capesize and panamax activities.

  13
                               Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Currencies Markets
                                                      Currency Movement
                                                                                                              Rupee
                                      10.30                                                                   •   The Indian rupee rose against the U.S. dollar on
                                               Rebased to 10
                                                                                                                  greenback inflows associated with initial public
 Currency Prices ( in terms of INR)

                                      10.20
                                      10.10                                                                       offerings of corporates.
                                                                                              -0.52%
                                      10.00                                                                   Euro
                                                                                              -0.23%
                                       9.90                                                                   •   Euro fell against the U.S. dollar on rise in U.S.
                                       9.80
                                                                                              -0.49%
                                                                                                                  Treasury yields. However, losses were limited as
                                       9.70                                                                       the U.S. Fed does not expect to increase
                                                                                              -0.19%
                                       9.60                                                                       interest rates till the end of 2023.
                                        19-Feb-21              5-Mar-21                    19-Mar-21
                                                    USD        GBP        Euro           JPY
                                                                                                              Pound
           Source: Refinitiv
                                                                                                              •   Pound fell against the U.S. dollar on possible
                                         Movement of Rupee vs Other Currencies
                                                                                                                  downside risks relating to the UK's Covid-19
                                                                                                                  vaccine rollout and tensions with the European
Currency                                                   Last Closing*             1-Wk Ago
                                                                                                                  Union.
US Dollar                                                      72.52                    72.68
                                                                                                              Yen
Pound Sterling                                                 100.94                  101.47                 •   Yen was little changed against the U.S. dollar as
EURO                                                           86.45                    86.88                     fall due to rise in U.S. treasury yields neutralised
100 Yen                                                        66.64                    66.77                     gains as the U.S. Fed does not expect to
                                                                                                                  increase interest rates till the end of 2023.
Source: Refinitiv                                                Figures in INR , *Value as on Mar 19, 2021

        14
                                              Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
The Week that was…
                        15th Mar to 19th Mar

15

     Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
The Week that was (Mar 15 – Mar 19)
                                                                                     Present       Previous
     Date                                      Events
                                                                                      Value         Value
                    • India Wholesale Price Inflation (Feb)                           4.17%          2.03%
   Monday,          • India Trade Deficit (Feb) (USD)                                 12.62B        14.54B
 March 15, 2021     • China Retail Sales (YoY)(Feb)                                  33.80%          4.60%
                    • China Industrial Production (YoY)(Feb)                         35.10%          7.30%
                    • U.S. Retail Sales (MoM)(Feb)                                     -3%           7.60%
                    • Japan Industrial Production (YoY)(Jan)                          -5.20%        -5.30%
   Tuesday,
                    • Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Feb) (Yen)               217.4B        -325.4B
 March 16, 2021
                    • Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Mar)                    76.6           71.2
                    • Eurozone ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Mar)                    74            69.6
  Wednesday,        • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Feb)                        0.20%          0.20%
 March 17, 2021     • U.S. Housing Starts (MoM)(Feb)                                 1.421M         1.584M
                    • Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Feb)                  -0.40%        -0.60%
   Thursday,
                    • Eurozone Labor Cost(Q4)                                           3%           1.60%
 March 18, 2021
                    • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 12)                             770K          725K
    Friday,         • U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar)                                -16           -23
 March 19, 2021     • Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) (Feb)                       0.70%          1.40%

16
      Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
The Week Ahead
                        22nd Mar to 26th Mar

17

     Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
The Week Ahead
         Day                                                    Event
       Monday,         • People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision
     Mar 22, 2021      • Japan Leading Economic Index (Jan)

      Tuesday,         • U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jan)
                       • U.S. New Home Sales (MoM)(Feb)
     Mar 23, 2021      • Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
                       • U.K. Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Feb)
     Wednesday,        • U.S. Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
                       • Germany Markit PMI Composite (Mar) PREL
     Mar 24, 2021      • Eurozone Markit PMI Composite (Mar) PREL
                       • U.K. Markit Services PMI (Mar) PREL
      Thursday,        • U.S. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)
     Mar 25, 2021      • Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Apr)

                       • U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar)
       Friday,         • U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
     Mar 26, 2021      • U.K. Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)
                       • Germany IFO – Business Climate (Mar)

18
        Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Disclaimer
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19
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