NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International

Page created by Floyd Morgan
 
CONTINUE READING
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
Market Indicators
Report | 2016

NEW ZEALAND RETAIL

NO TURNING
BACK NOW

Accelerating success.
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
The Terrace
  Christchurch CBD, Christchurch
  The Terrace is a $140 million redevelopment of the Christchurch
  hospitality precinct previously known as The Strip on Oxford
  Terrace. The precinct is being developed by Hereford Holdings
  Limited and will include 3,500 sqm of retail space. It is due
  for completion in early 2017 and will incorporate premium
  restaurants and bars, laneways, courtyards and roof terraces.

Artist's impression
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
Contents
Key Nationwide Trends                           1

Introduction                                    3

Key Findings                                    3

Retail Market Indicators                        4

Auckland                                        5

Wellington                                      7

Christchurch                                    9

Hamilton                                        10

Palmerston North                                10

Nelson                                          10

Queenstown                                      11

Rotorua                                         11

Hawke's Bay                                     11

Tauranga/Mt Maunganui                           12

Dunedin                                         12

Outlook                                         13

Retail Leasing Activity                         14

Retail Sales Activity                           15

Retail Developments                             16

   colliers.co.nz/Find-Research

   Join our LinkedIn group:
   Colliers International New Zealand Network
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
IN BRIEF

NEW ZEALAND RETAIL
                                                               Q2 2016 REVIEW

1                      AUCKL AND                                 2               HAMILTON
                           Vacancy                4.3%                       Average Prime Net Rent   $388/sqm
             Average Prime Net Rent               $1,017/sqm            Average Secondary Net Rent    $175/sqm
        Average Secondary Net Rent                $513/sqm               Average Prime Market Yield   7.00%
         Average Prime Market Yield               5.91%              Average Secondary Market Yield   9.13%
     Average Secondary Market Yield               8.05%
                                                                      OUTLOOK: Demand       Supply
                Retail Investor Confidence:
                         net positive 48%
                                                                 3
           OUTLOOK: Demand                 Supply
                                                                     TAURANGA/MT MAUNGANUI
                                                                             Average Prime Net Rent   $444/sqm
                                                                        Average Secondary Net Rent    $231/sqm
                                                                         Average Prime Market Yield   6.25%
                                                                     Average Secondary Market Yield   7.25%

                                                                         OUTLOOK: Demand      Supply

                                                                                                                          8

10                       DUNEDIN
                           Vacancy                7.6%
             Average Prime Net Rent               $825/sqm
        Average Secondary Net Rent                $300/sqm
         Average Prime Market Yield               7.13%
     Average Secondary Market Yield               9.75%
                                                                                                                      9
           OUTLOOK: Demand                 Supply

11                  QUEENSTOWN
             Average Prime Net Rent               $1,650/sqm
        Average Secondary Net Rent                $725/sqm
         Average Prime Market Yield               4.50%                           11
     Average Secondary Market Yield               5.50%

           OUTLOOK: Demand                 Supply                                                                10

Source: Colliers International Research
Note: Rents are based on averages.
Refer to Market Indicators on page 4 for futher breakdown.

                                                                     1
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
4
                                                                                ROTORUA
                                                                           Average Prime Net Rent      $265/sqm
                                                                      Average Secondary Net Rent       $150/sqm
1                                                                      Average Prime Market Yield
                                                                   Average Secondary Market Yield
                                                                                                       8.50%
                                                                                                       10.50%

                                                                      OUTLOOK: Demand         Supply

                    3
        2
                4                                              5
                                                                             HAWKE'S BAY
                                                                           Average Prime Net Rent      $423/sqm
                                                                      Average Secondary Net Rent       $248/sqm
                                                                       Average Prime Market Yield      7.31%
                                                                   Average Secondary Market Yield      8.38%

                         5                                             OUTLOOK: Demand         Supply

                                                               6
                                                                         PALMERSTON NORTH
                                                                           Average Prime Net Rent      $450/sqm
            6                                                         Average Secondary Net Rent       $225/sqm
                                                                       Average Prime Market Yield      7.50%
                                                                   Average Secondary Market Yield      10.00%

    7                                                               OUTLOOK: Demand             Supply

                                                               7              WELLINGTON
                                                                                        Vacancy     8.9%
                                                                         Average Prime Net Rent*    $1,257/sqm
        8                    NELSON
                                                                     Average Secondary Net Rent*    $732/sqm
                                                                       Average Prime Market Yield   6.85%
                    Average Prime Net Rent      $575/sqm           Average Secondary Market Yield   7.38%
               Average Secondary Net Rent       $325/sqm
                Average Prime Market Yield      6.75%                      Retail Investor Confidence:
            Average Secondary Market Yield      7.25%                            net positive 30%

                OUTLOOK: Demand           Supply                       OUTLOOK: Demand         Supply

                                                                                                         Gross Rents*

        9               CHRISTCHURCH
                    Average Prime Net Rent      $813/sqm
               Average Secondary Net Rent       $450/sqm
                Average Prime Market Yield      7.25%
            Average Secondary Market Yield      8.38%

                    Retail Investor Confidence:
                             net positive 12%

                OUTLOOK: Demand           Supply

                                                           2
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
Introduction                                                                                                 New Zealand Retail CBD Market Indicator Summary

                                                                                                                                         Average Net Prime Rents                                            Average Prime Capital Values
Eight years on from the global financial crisis, many retailers have                                                                      Q2 2015 –                                                               Q2 2015 –
                                                                                                                                                                              12 Month                                                                       12 Month
streamlined their operations, ramped up their sales campaigns and,                                                                         Q2 2016                                                                 Q2 2016
                                                                                                                                                                              Forecast                                                                       Forecast
                                                                                                                                         (% Change)                                                              (% Change)
in some cases, rationalised their space to meet the changing demand
of the new consumer.                                                                                  Auckland                                    3.5%                                                              10.3%                                           
                                                                                                      Hamilton                                    3.5%                                                               11.1%                                          
New Zealand is also receiving more enquiry from international
retailers and a select few national retailers are looking to expand their                             Tauranga                                    0.0%                                                               0.0%                                           
footprint with a more targeted approach. For these retailers, the new                                 Wellington*                                 3.7%                                                               4.2%                                           
strategies being employed – although challenging – are working.
                                                                                                      Christchurch                                0.0%                                                                   N/A                                        
However, not all retailers have upped the ante, and some major retail                                 Dunedin                                     0.0%                                                               4.7%                                           
brands have closed their doors for good. This is an important reminder
for many to stay focussed and not lose sight of the end game. On the                                                Source: Colliers International Research
                                                                                                                    *Based on gross rents
flip side, the closures provide opportunities for other retailers to secure
prime spots and employ a better retailing approach.

These underlying conditions have given buoyancy to property                                                   New Zealand Retail Sales by Industry
leasing enquiry and activity. We are seeing occupancy highs in many
locations – albeit retailers sticking to basics are the winners.                                                          Supermarket & Grocery Retail                                                     High Street Retail                                        Bulk Retail

                                                                                                             20%
Many retail owners are inspired by the new look and forward facing
approach, but are mindful of where the sector sits in the cycle and               Annual Percentage Change    15%

the added requirements for immersion and interaction required.                                               10%
While interest rates are dragging down inflation and margins, it is
                                                                                                              5%
keeping rents down and investor purchasing activity high.
                                                                                                              0%
                                                                                                                       Jun-98
                                                                                                                                Jun-99

                                                                                                                                                           Jun-02

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            J u n -1 1
                                                                                                                                         Jun-00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jun-16
                                                                                                                                                  Jun-01

                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-03
                                                                                                                                                                             Jun-04
                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-05
                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-14
                                                                                                             -5%

Key Findings
                                                                                                             -10%

                                                                                                             -15%

                                                                                                             -20%
>>A prolonged period of economic prosperity has encouraged                                                      Source: NZStats, Colliers International Research
  consumers to spend more, and retailers to keep enticing them                                                  Note: Seasonally adjusted
  with great deals. The perceived boost in wealth from house price
  rises nationally is advantageous. While interest rates remain
  low, retail activity will remain high.
>> Auckland’s vacancy rates are at or near record lows depending on
                                                                                                             New Zealand Shopping Centres
   the sector. Construction activity is rising, but not enough in the
                                                                                                                 Town Centre    Sub Regional Centre    Regional Centre    Other
   right areas to keep rents from rising further. Investors remain
                                                                                                                 Neighbourhood Centre    Major Regional Centre    District Centre
   extremely confident, which will push yields lower.
                                                                                                                                                            City Centre    Bulk Retail
>> The rise in new entrants to Wellington and more retailers relocating
   around the CBD confirms the dramatic upturn in the market’s                                                  2016
   strength in less than 18 months. The challenge for the sector will be                                        2014
   how to keep up with this heightened level of demand. Rents are rising
                                                                                                                2012
   as a consequence of the demand, and investors are eyeing up their
                                                                                                                2010
   next move. Investor confidence is the strongest it’s been this cycle
   and the future looks bright.                                                                                 2008

                                                                                                                2006
>> A bounce back in investor confidence in Christchurch cements the
   sector’s new growth path. Certainty in the sector is being driven by                                         2004
                                                                                       Year

   enquiry translating into activity. This is a feature across all property                                     2002
   types. Momentum is now building and the market’s appreciation                                                2000
   of better times ahead will be showcased in rent and investor activity                                        1998
   over the next 12 months.
                                                                                                                1996
>> Trends in regional markets show that retailers sticking to the basics
                                                                                                                1994
   of locating in strong catchments while providing customers with
                                                                                                                1992
   the right product and service levels are experiencing the best
   outcomes. Landlords are conscious of the difficult trading environ-                                          1990

   ment, but are also cognisant of the need to increase returns. At this                                                0                                                     1                                                    2                                                         3
   stage, much of the capital appreciation is from a firming yield                                                                                                     Total Supply (sqm, millions)
   environment. While this is expected to continue, rent rises will be
   a top priority for landlords in the coming months.                                                               Source: PCNZ, Colliers International Research

                                                                              3
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
New Zealand Retail Market Indicators Q2 2016
                         Net Prime Rents      Net Secondary Rents       Prime Capital Value*           Secondary Capital      Prime Market               Secondary Market
      Precinct                ($/m²)                ($/m²)                    ($/m²)                     Value* ($/m²)        Yields** (%)                 Yields** (%)
                         Low        High           Low         High       Low          High             Low       High       Low         High            Low        High
  AUCKLAND
  CBD                    1,700       4,200          700         900       26,155      84,000            7,370     11,615     5.00%       6.50%           7.75%      9.50%
  Newmarket                  800     2,000          500         750       12,310      44,445            5,000      9,375     4.50%       6.50%           8.00%     10.00%
  Ponsonby Road              750     1,350          500         700       11,540      28,420            N/A        N/A       4.75%       6.50%            N/A        N/A
  Parnell Rise               550     850            N/A         N/A       7,855       17,000            N/A        N/A       5.00%       7.00%            N/A        N/A
  Dominion Road              250     520            N/A         N/A       3,450          9,455          N/A        N/A       5.50%       7.25%            N/A        N/A
  Takapuna                   500     1,000          300         450       7,145       20,000            3,530      6,000     5.00%       7.00%           7.50%      8.50%
  HAMILTON
  CBD                        250     525            100         250       3,335          8,075          975        3,125     6.50%       7.50%           8.00%     10.25%
  ROTORUA
  CBD                        180     350            100         200       2,120          4,665          835        2,220     6.75%       7.50%           8.50%      9.00%
  TAURANGA
  CBD                        300     500            175         250       4,000          7,690          1,945      3,335     6.50%       7.50%           7.50%      9.00%
  MT MAUNGANUI
  CBD                        375     600            200         300       6,820       15,000            3,075      6,000     4.50%       6.00%           5.50%      7.00%
  NAPIER
  CBD                        450     700            200         450       6,000       10,770            2,500      6,000     6.50%       7.50%           7.50%      8.00%
  HASTINGS
  CBD                        220     320            120         220       2,750          4,415          1,200      2,750     7.25%       8.00%           8.00%     10.00%
  PALMERSTON NORTH
  CBD                        300     600            150         300       3,750          8,570          1,365      3,335     7.00%       8.00%           9.00%     11.00%
  WELLINGTON
  Lambton Quay           1,720      1,855           531         620       24,570      30,915            7,080      8,550     6.00%       7.00%           7.25%      7.50%
  Willis Street              752    1,087           N/A         N/A       10,025      16,725            N/A        N/A       6.50%       7.50%            N/A        N/A
  Courtenay Place            649     864            N/A         N/A       8,655       13,290            N/A        N/A       6.50%       7.50%            N/A        N/A
  Cuba Mall                  561     947            N/A         N/A       7,480       14,570            N/A        N/A       6.50%       7.50%            N/A        N/A
  NELSON
  CBD                        450     700            250         400       6,000       11,665            3,335     5,715      6.00%       7.50%           7.00%      7.50%
  CHRISTCHURCH
  City Mall                  650    1,200           350         500       9,000       15,000            4,500     7,000      6.00%       7.50%           7.50%      9.00%
  CBD                        600     800            350         600       8,500       12,000            4,000     7,000      7.00%       8.50%           8.00%      9.00%
  QUEENSTOWN
  CBD                    1,300      2,000           450        1,000      26,000      50,000            7,500     20,000     4.00%       5.00%           5.00%      6.00%
  DUNEDIN
  CBD                        500    1,150           150         450       5,880       20,000            1,365     5,295      5.75%       8.50%           8.50%     11.00%

Main Retail Centres Market Indicators Q2 2016
                                              Net Face Rents                  Operating Expense                 Prime Capital Value*          Prime Market Yields**
          Shopping Centres                        ($/m²)                           ($/m²)                             ($/m²)                          (%)
                                             Low              High            Low                High            Low           High              Low              High
 AUCKLAND

 Regional Shopping Centres                   650              1,650           170                270             8,125         27,500            6.00%            8.00%

 District Shopping Centres                   260              750             150                230             2,735         11,110            6.75%            9.50%

 Bulk Retail Centres                         200              450             45                  75             2,160         6,785             6.63%            9.25%

 WELLINGTON

 Regional Shopping Centres                   500              1,100           170                270             5,555         16,295            6.75%            9.00%

 District Shopping Centres                   300              950             270                300             3,000         11,875            8.00%           10.00%

 Bulk Retail Centres                         205              300             45                  75             2,160         3,750             8.00%            9.50%

 CHRISTCHURCH

 Regional Shopping Centre                    600              2,500           170                270             6,665         25,715            7.00%            9.00%

 District Shopping Centres                   350              1,800           150                230             3,500         31,250            8.00%           10.00%

 Bulk Retail Centres                         200              330             25                  60             2,105         4,715             7.00%            9.50%

Source: Colliers International Research            Assumes 100-200 sqm shop         *Assuming fully leased at market rates       **Assuming freehold where appropriate
Note: Figures are rounded

                                                                                     4
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
Auckland                                                                                       Auckland Retail Vacancy Rate
                                                                                                                           June 2015    June 2016
                                                                                                12%

Demand strong in the CBD                                                                        10%

                                                                                                8%

                                                                               Vacancy Rates
Auckland CBD’s vacant space is the lowest in eight years, with only
                                                                                                6%
3,030 sqm of available space. However, the 2.7% vacancy rate is up
from 2.5% last year. The key reason for this anomaly is the reduction                           4%
in total stock due to the demolition of the Downtown Shopping                                   2%
Centre to make way for 100 new shops by October 2018. MidCity
                                                                                                0%
centre’s first level retail continues to provide the majority of vacant

                                                                                                       Overall

                                                                                                                 CBD

                                                                                                                       Queen St

                                                                                                                                  Newmarket

                                                                                                                                              Parnell

                                                                                                                                                        Ponsonby Rd

                                                                                                                                                                      Dominion Rd

                                                                                                                                                                                    Takapuna

                                                                                                                                                                                               Henderson

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Massey North
                                                                                                                                                                                                              /Westgate
space in the CBD.

Beyond the CBD, vacancy rates have edged up in the suburban
markets, as retailers jostle for the hottest spots. West Auckland is
                                                                                                  Source: Colliers International Research
a prime example, with the Westgate Town Centre attracting a
number of national and local retailers from secondary locations.
The Shopping Centre vacancy rate has also increased, up to
1.7% from 1.3%.

                                                                               Footlocker
Supply pipeline increases                                                      191 Queen Street, Auckland CBD

Total CBD supply has reduced by approximately 10% while con-
struction work takes place on the redevelopment of Downtown.
This has seen pressure on the limited supply in the CBD, as many
of the tenants have moved out of the centre and into the streets.
The NDG Centre has been deferred from 2021 and it will likely be
another one to two years before any further announcements are
made. Premises for Tiffany & Co. and Chanel in Britomart are
nearing the end of refurbishment which will provide additional
luxury retail space to the CBD. Shopping centre supply (which
includes all types of retail centres) has grown further over the
past year. The development pipeline remains healthy with an
additional 125,000 sqm under construction.
                                                                               Robert Jones Holdings Limited has leased 662 sqm of prime Level 1
                                                                               retail space at 191 Queen Street to Footlocker. Retailers nearby include
Rents and incentives likely to stabilise                                       TopShop and Cue, and the frontage on Queen Street provides exposure
                                                                               to high pedestrian flows.
Auckland CBD rents have risen again – despite already reaching
record highs. Average prime net face rents are now $2,950/sqm with
more than $4,000/sqm the highest rent achieved. Many landlords
are likely to lower their expectations in rent rises over the next year,
albeit further rental growth at the bottom end is still expected.
Bulk retail premises are approximately one-tenth the cost of prime
                                                                               Three Kings Shopping Centre and Plaza
                                                                               Auckland
CBD rates. Low inflation numbers continue to drag on retailers’
margins and the ability of non-CBD landlords to push up rents.

Investors are positive
Investors in Auckland retail property expect conditions to improve
over the next 12 months with a net positive 48% (optimists minus
pessimists), according to our latest investor confidence survey.
Although this is lower than the office and industrial sectors, this
is the highest level of retail enthusiasm since the survey began in
early 2006. The high levels of confidence combined with low interest
rates will push yields lower and capital values higher. The rate of
change will likely be less than previous periods as the gap between
yields and debt costs reduces.                                                 Antipodean Properties has sold Three Kings Shopping Centre and Plaza to
                                                                               a private investor for $37 million, reflecting a yield of 5.88%. The sale of the
                                                                               10,000 sqm centre is unconditional and is due to settle mid-November.

                                                                           5
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
SOU
                                                                                              TH
                                                                                                   ER
                                                                                                        N
                                                                                                            MW
                                                                                                                 Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Cust
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               oms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     St We BRITOMART
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          st                      Luxury/International
                                                                            Northern Shopping Centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1.6%      $3,600

                                                                                                                          SOU
                                                                                                             1.7%

                                                                                                                           TH
                                                                                                                                                                                                              National Branded
                                                                 18

                                                                                                                            ER
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sh o
                                                            Y               Takapuna                                                                                                                               3.3%                 $2,700                                r t l a n d St

                                                                                                                                N
                                                        W
                                                    M

                                                                                                                                 MW
                                           O   UR                                        2.9%               $750            6.00%                                            ia St
                                                                                                                                                                                     West

                                                                                                                                     Y
                                                                                                                                                                 V ict o r

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  t
                                       B

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              High S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Vict
                                H   AR                                                              Col le ge Hil l
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               oria
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      St E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    en S
                           ER

                                                                                                                                     AUCK
                                                                                                                                                                                Wel

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Q ue
                                                                                                                                                                                    les
                     P

                                                                                                                                                                                           ley S
                UP

                                                                                                                                                                                                   t We
                                                                                                                                                                                                              st

                                                                                                                                         LA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Entertainment/Service

                                                                                                                                             ND
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2.5%                $2,100

                                                                                                                                               H
                                                                Ponsonby
     N O RT H

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        t
                                                                                                                                                  A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       en S
                                                                                                                                Auckland CBD

                                                                                                                                                  M
                                                                                                                                                    IL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Q ue
                                                                   2.2%         $1,050                  5.63%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       y
                                                                                                                                                      TO

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   le
                ES

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  an
         W

                     TE

                                                                                                                                                       N

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          We

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  St
                          RN

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ll
                               MW

                                                                                                                                                         HW

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                es
                                     Y

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  l ey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     St
                                                                                                                                                           Y

                                                                                                                                                                                       ED

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Ea
                                                                                                                                                                                     POS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         en S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          st
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Parnell

                                                                                                                                                                                     PRO
                                                                                                                      16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Q ue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10.6%                   $700                    6.00%
Henderson
                                                                                                                  Central Shopping Centres
   5.6%               $325                 6.13%
                                                                                                                                             2.5%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       St
                                                                                                                                                                                              Newmarket

                                                                                                                                                                                                              t

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ley
                                                                                                                                                                                                       en S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  an
                                                                                                                                                                                                          3.9%                    $1,400                     5.50%

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Que

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  St
                                                                                                            SO
                                                                                                                 UT
                                                                                                                      H                                                                    SOUTH
                                                                                                                          WE                                                                                       ER
Western Shopping Centres                                                                                                       ST                                                                                       N
                                                                                                                                    ER
                                                                                              Rd                                         N
                      2.5%                                                               er                                MW
                                                                                                                 Dominion Rd

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            M
                                                                                     m

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               W
                                                                                um                                                            Y
                                                                           Cr

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Y
                                                                                                                          6.3%               $38516      6.38%
                                                                                                                                                                                                   PROPOSED
                                                                                                                                         Y
                                                                                                                                     W
                                                                                                                                    M
                                                                                                                                N

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              A
                                                                                                                           R
                                                                                                                          E

  KEY
                                                                                                                          T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              U
                                                                                                                      S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  CK
                                                                                                                      E
                                                                                                                 W

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LA
                                                                                                              H

                   Overall
                                                                                                             T

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ND
                                                                                                            R

        Vacancy Rates (%)                                                                                                                    Southern Shopping Centres                                                                                            Eastern Shopping Centres
                                                                                                        O
                                                                                                        N

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          HA
     Average Prime Retail                                                                                                                                     0.7%                                                                                                                               0.1%
        Net Rents ($/m2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  IL
            Average Prime                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            TO
          Market Yields (%)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               H
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                W
  Trend: June 15 - June 16                                                                                                                                                                               20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Y

     Actual June 16 figure 0%/$0

                          No Change
                                                                  Source: Colliers International Research
                                                                                                                                                                 Note: Shopping centres include city centres, town centres, regional centres,
                                                                                                                                                                 district centres, neighbourhood centres, bulk retail centres and others.

     Auckland Retail Market Review
     2016 compared to 2015

     Enquiry =                                                                                                                                          Average prime net rents  $1,017/sqm
     Consumer confidence =                                                                                                                                Average secondary net rents  $513/sqm
     Investor confidence  net positive 48%                                                                                                                Average prime yields  5.91%
     Supply                             Demand                                                                                                           Average secondary yields  8.05%
     Buyer groups = private and institutional investors                                                                                                    Overall vacancy  4.30% (June 2016)

                                                                                                                                                  6
NO TURNING BACK NOW Market Indicators Report | 2016 - NEW ZEALAND RETAIL - Colliers International
Wellington                                                                                      Wellington Retail Vacancy Rate

                                                                                                                                 June 2015    June 2016
                                                                                                 12%

Demand returns                                                                                   10%

                                                                                Vacancy Rates
The rise in new entrants to Wellington and more retailers relocating                             8%

around the CBD confirms the dramatic upturn in the market’s strength                             6%
in less than 18 months. Our June 2016 survey showed Wellington’s
8.9% CBD vacancy rate up fractionally from 8.3% a year ago, however,                             4%

this masks the underlying trend of the sector’s resurgence. Firstly,                             2%
approximately 6,400 sqm of retail space was yet to be leased by David
                                                                                                 0%
Jones (now up and running and boosting retail spend). There were,

                                                                                                                                     Lambton Quay
                                                                                                         Overall

                                                                                                                     CBD Core

                                                                                                                                                    Willis St

                                                                                                                                                                Manners St

                                                                                                                                                                             Cuba St

                                                                                                                                                                                       Courtenay Pl
and are, a number of new tenants signing up for space like Wittner,
Platypus, Life Pharmacy, a confidential major fashion retailer as well
as other major internationals all scouring around for their new home.
We expect the vacancy rate to push to low 7% by mid-next year, and                                 Source: Colliers International Research
this may prove to be conservative. The challenge for the sector will be
how to keep up with this heightened level of demand.

Supply increases
                                                                                Three Westfield Malls Sold
The completion of refurbished space for David Jones will reintroduce            Wellington
a sizeable amount of CBD supply, but it won’t unlock additional space
to lease. This is a rising trend, as landlords receive solid enquiry from
retailers when their premises come up for lease. New office buildings
will also provide new additions to the retail sector, while providing
new opportunities for retailers to move to better locations. The growth
of the Thorndon precinct for new government tenants as announced
in Wellington Accommodation Project 2 may see a shift in retailers
moving north over coming years. This will be especially noticeable for
convenience and food and beverage operators looking to take advan-
tage of the increased workforce. Shopping centre vacancy remains low
in the region (see map). Stride Property have recently announced
next steps in the redevelopment of Johnsonville Shopping Centre.

                                                                                In December 2015 ASX-listed Scentre Group sold three Westfield
Rents and incentives in a tight range                                           shopping centres for $549 million in two deals. NZX listed Stride
                                                                                Property purchased Queensgate and Chartwell centres for $445 million,
CBD gross prime face rents and regional centre rents have increased             and Ladstone Holdings purchased the Glenfield mall for $104 million.
over the past year. Bulk retail rents have remained steady. This is             The sale of the three centres provided a blended a yield of 8.2%.
reflective of the retailing environment, but also the sector’s tight
rental range in any region of New Zealand. Current retail spending
from StatsNZ shows consumers are out spending again. Wellington
retail sales were up 1.4% in the past year. However, the increase in
volumes at a higher rate indicates margins remain thin which may                Platypus Shoes
limit landlords from increasing rents rapidly in this positive                  93-97 Manners Street, Wellington
leasing environment.

Yields and capital values on the rise
Investors in Wellington retail property were at a net positive 30% in
our June 2016 confidence survey. This is the highest level of confidence
since the Colliers survey began in 2008. The confidence is reflected in
investment yields firming in the CBD and regional centres, down by
15 basis points and 12 basis points respectively. Bulk retail yields have
remained steady after firming by 20 basis points last year. There is a
lack of prime stock to invest in, which will be exacerbated by current
market conditions. Investment activity will rise as purchasers take
advantage of a lower interest rate environment. However, the focus              Platypus Shoes Limited has leased 250 sqm of retail space from a
will remain on capital appreciation rather than rent rises.                     private investor at 93-97 Manners Street in Wellington CBD.

                                                                            7
WELLINGTON RAILWAY STATION

                                                                                                                                  North City
                                                Lambton Quay
                      u ay

                                                                                                                                       0.0%
                      Q

                                                       3.5%       $2,098       6.50%
                  ton
              Lamb

                   Willis Street
                             7.8%                     $1,180      7.00%                                                                                                              2

                                                                                                                                                       Queensgate Shopping Centre
                                  t
                             lis S
                          Wil

                                                                                                                                                                     0.9%
                                                                                                        Johnsonville Shopping Centre
                                                                                                                      1.8%
                                                                                                                                               1

                                                  Cuba Street
                                                                                                                                                   2
      t
       sS

                                                           3.6%
  Willi

                                                                                                                 Wellington CBD
                                            t
                                          aS

                                                                                                                                                          KEY
                                         Cub

                                                               Manners Street
                                          Ma
                       Dix                     nn
                                                  e
                                                                       12.2%                                                                                              Overall
                          on                       rs
                                    St                S                                                                                                        Vacancy Rates (%)
                 ED

                                                       t
             POS
             PRO

                                                                                                                                                             Average Prime Retail
                                                                                                                                                              Gross Rents ($/m2)
             Courtenay Place                                                   Cou
                                                                                  rten                                                                            Average Prime
                      21.6%                     $875           7.00%                  ay P
                                                                                          l                                                                     Market Yields (%)
            t
            aS

                                                                                                                                                          Trend: June 15 - June 16
       Cub

                                                                                                                                                             Actual June 16 figure 0%/$0
                                                                                                                                                                       No Change
  t
 aS
Cub

                             PROPOSED

            Source: Colliers International Research
            Prime strip retail based on 100 - 200 sqm shop area

 Wellington Retail Market Review
 2016 compared to 2015

 Enquiry =                                                                                                         Average prime CBD gross rents  $1,257/sqm
 Consumer confidence =                                                                                               Average secondary CBD gross rents  $732/sqm
 Investor confidence  net positive 30%                                                                               Average prime yields  6.85%
 Supply                                   Demand                                                                    Average secondary yields  7.38%
 Buyer groups = private and institutional investors                                                                   Overall vacancy  8.90% (June 2016)

                                                                                                                  8
Christchurch                                                                BNZ Centre
                                                                            Christchurch

Spending growth rates balance out
Canterbury is the second largest catchment for retail spending
in New Zealand behind Auckland, representing 14% of the nation’s
retail spend. At first glance the slowdown in annual retail spending
to 0.4% in the 12 months to June 2016 signals a market losing
momentum. However, retail spending has increased by 10% since
mid-2014, outpacing New Zealand’s overall growth of 9% over the
same period. The latest results do signal an inevitable slowdown
in spending after such a high period of activity. Growth is likely
to re-emerge in the second half of the year.
                                                                            Stage Two of the BNZ Centre in Cashel Street is due for completion in
                                                                            December 2016. The $140 million precinct developed by Lichfield Holdings
Step by step, retailers sign up                                             has approximately 5,000 sqm of ground floor retail space. Confirmed
                                                                            tenancies include 119 sqm leased by Michael Hill and 157 sqm by Spark.
Suburban retailers are sticking to ‘retailing 101’ by setting up shop
in locations with the strongest catchment. Areas in the north and
the west are receiving the lion’s share of this spending and are
benefiting from the high number of residential projects underway.           The Landing
In the CBD, tipping point has been reached as enquiry is translating        Wigram Skies, Christchurch
into leasing deals. The commitment to the CBD by major office
occupiers has hastened retailers to commit to their own premises.
Recent examples include Superette, Partridge Jewellers, Macpac,
Country Road and more. Those who haven’t committed are either
close, in discussion or are engaged with the market to source the
most appropriate spot for their business. National fashion retailers
are slowly rising in number, but smaller local boutique retailers
may be struggling to commit given the significant jump in rents
from yesteryears. Announcements from international retailers like
TopShop continue to rally the sector, with more announcements
expected soon.

Rents have now been set                                                     The retail complex at The Landing in Wigram Skies is now 70% leased.
                                                                            A modern New World Supermarket anchored the first stage of the
The range for CBD retail rents is now starting to firm as higher            development which opened mid-2015. Other tenants include Joe’s Garage,
numbers of leasing deals take place. Typical net prime rents in the         Hikari Sushi Bar and a Unichem Pharmacy. The $40 million dollar project
                                                                            developed by Ngai Tahu Property Limited includes approximately 6000 sqm
CBD are between $600/sqm and $800/sqm, while suburban rents are
                                                                            of retail space.
typically below $600/sqm. Many of the larger format retail rents in
Christchurch range between $160/sqm and $375/sqm depending on
tenant brand, size and location. Christchurch large format retail
space below 1,000 sqm commands a slight premium compared                    Unit 3/ 950 Ferry Road
with other locations around New Zealand, with the exception of              Ferrymead, Christchurch
Auckland. Under the current retailing environment, there is limited
market rental growth expected, with the prevalence of fixed or CPI
adjusted rents. Turnover rents remain predominantly the domain
of larger national tenants.

Investors regain confidence
In the latest June 2016 Colliers International Investor Confidence
survey, Christchurch’s retail sector recorded a net positive 12%
(optimists minus pessimists). This is a positive turnaround for the
sector from the recent downward trend, which saw only a net posi-
tive 6% in March 2016. Momentum in development and leasing
activity in tandem with further yield appreciation are the main             Clarkmead Properties Limited sold Unit 3/950 Ferry Road for $1,732,000
drivers, a feature of the market set to continue.                           to a private investor reflecting a yield of 6.1%. The property consists of 394 sqm
                                                                            and includes ground floor retail, first floor office and off-street car parking.

                                                                        9
REGIONAL UPDATES

Hamilton
High profile, major asset sales in Hamilton over the past year highlight             Currently the wider Waikato region accounts for 9.4% of the nation’s
the retail sector’s recent rise in activity. The Base (half share), Westfield        total seasonally adjusted retail sales values each year. Although this
Chartwell and Centre Place South sold for an aggregate value of over                 remains broadly comparable to last year’s result, retail spending levels
$400 million. The national retail sector typically achieves a total                  are growing at about 3% pa. This is at a higher rate than rental growth
annual sales value of $1.1 billion, highlighting the significant size of             which remained typically steady, albeit a rise at the top-end range of
                                                                                     prime rents was recorded, now at $600/sqm. Solid catchment
the three major sales. There have also been a number of smaller retail
                                                                                     demographics, rising rents and competitive purchasers have led to
premises sold for under $2m, often reaching 6% yields. The purchasing
                                                                                     further capital appreciation and firming yields. Average prime retail
activity by listed property vehicles, syndicates and private investors
                                                                                     properties in Hamilton will now sell with a yield between 6% and 7%,
reflects the competition for assets in a sector starved of options.
                                                                                     down from 7% to 8% a year ago. Secondary assets are also receiving
Investors are bullish for retail, eyeing up Hamilton’s growth in                     stronger enquiry rates. Although yields are forecast to firm further,
population as well as the recent surge in residential dwelling prices                the rate of change experienced over the past 12 months is unlikely
and the positive impact expected on consumer spend.                                  to be repeated over the next 12 months.

                                                                                       Centre Place South
                                                                                       Hamilton CBD, Hamilton
                                                                                       NZX-listed company Kiwi Property Group Limited has confirmed
                                                                                       the sale of Centre Place South to Silverfin Capital Limited for $46.8
                                                                                       million. Equity of $27.6 million was raised from the sale of $50,000
                                                                                       parcels to wholesale investors through syndication. Silverfin projected
                                                                                       a 9% pre-tax return for the first full 12 month period, paid monthly.
                                                                                       The 10,933 sqm shopping centre comprises of 27 tenancies, along with
                                                                                       a new Farmers store. It also underwent a $36 million refurbishment
                                                                                       in 2013.

Palmerston North                                                                     Nelson
Overall demand conditions in the retail sector have been positive in                 Retailers in Nelson remain conscious of the rising, but thin margins
the past year, helping to lift the sector’s performance from previous                in the sector, which is exacerbated by low inflation and a relatively
years. Vacancy rates across the city are low, following on from                      stable spending environment. Population gains, as well as tourism
elevated enquiry levels that have translated into real activity.                     growth, remain key to the sector’s rise in profitability. A positive
In particular, the large format retail sector in Palmerston North                    outcome for tenants is that rents have remained relatively steady, with
received a boost with Bed, Bath & Beyond, Repco and Animates all                     prime rents ranging between $450/sqm and $700/sqm, and secondary
leasing space in 2016. Other opportunities in the strip retail sector                rents ranging between $250/sqm and $400/sqm. Forecasts of future
are occurring as tenant demand remains steady and positive, but                      rent rises remain below 3% pa for the majority of retailers. New leases
only for the right opportunities. Retail sales volumes were up 6.5%                  in Trafalgar Street, Achilles Avenue and High Street indicate tenant
in August 2016 compared to August 2015, with total retail spending                   demand is broad, catering to a varied and diverse consumer base.
values up a further 2%, according to Paymark. This will keep retailers               Investors remain challenged to find appropriate levels of stock to
content, especially as rents have remained broadly stable over the                   purchase, with anything that does become available receiving high
last 12 months. The higher levels of activity indicate the retail sector             enquiry. This is pushing yields to a tight range at the top end of the
in Palmerston North is moving into the next phase of stronger                        quality spectrum. Prime yields currently range between 6.00% and
underlying demand and more positive investor confidence levels.                      7.50%, with positive underlying sentiment likely to see these rates
This will assist with firming prime yields which currently range                     firm further over the next 12 months.
between 7.00% and 8.00%.

                                                                                10
Queenstown                                                                       Rotorua
The level of development activity in Queenstown’s retail sector                  Positive economic conditions provide the underlying support for
continues to push new boundaries. After years of modest activity,                Rotorua’s buoyant retail sector for 2016. Economic data analysed
there has been a burst of new retail space – predominantly in                    by Infometrics for the Rotorua District Council in the June 2016
Frankton Flats at Remarkables Park, Five Mile and Queenstown                     quarter shows: retail trade, tourism, guest nights, net migration,
Central (which is due for completion late 2017). New leases by Noel              car registrations, house prices, consents and other important
Leeming, The Warehouse, Harvey Norman and now Kmart indicate
                                                                                 metrics were all positive over the past year, and often outperform-
just how much change the sector is experiencing. Not to be left out,
                                                                                 ing New Zealand overall. While the local resident population is
the traditional heart of the retail sector in the CBD continues to exceed
                                                                                 up and spending levels are positive, the major boost has been from
expectations with little opportunity to secure space. Enabling the
                                                                                 domestic and international visitors. According to MBIE’s Monthly
increase in floor space is the significant projections of resident
population growth as well as the tourist population. While there                 Regional Tourism Estimates spending was up by 4.8% to $711
is almost 30,000 sqm of retail space under construction or in the                million over the past year. The higher spending levels are helping
pipeline, there are some indications that tenant churn will likely               with retail leasing activity, which is helping to reduce vacancy
see some space left behind that will be harder to lease. Despite all             rates from their peak in 2014. Accommodation and the food and
of this new supply, rents are continuing to grow, especially for prime           beverage retail sectors continue to benefit from the strong tourism
end space in the CBD. However, given the level of new space set                  sector. However, the increase in house prices is seeing greater
to enter the market over the next four years in Frankton, we would               spending at large format retailers for household goods and DIY
expect that rents may remain steady there. Investment yields are                 items. Retail rents in Rotorua typically range between $180 and
strong in Queenstown, reflecting the level of growth expected as well            $350/sqm, with rents at the lakefront end of Tutanekai St reaching
as the competition from investors for prime stock in an increasingly             approximately $280/sqm. Recent sales activity shows average
growing tourist destination hub.                                                 prime yields typically ranging between 6.75% and 7.50%.

Five Mile
Frankton, Queenstown

                                                                                 Hawke's Bay
                                                                                 Another strong year of retail spending in the Hawke’s Bay has kept
                                                                                 retailers confident in their future prospects. It has also kept yields
                                                                                 firm in a competitive market. The 9.4% annual increase in retail
                                                                                 spending volumes and 5.6% increase in retail spending values,
                                                                                 according to Paymark, highlight the sector still relies on sales.
                                                                                 Retail sales activity is buoyant, but not all retailers will be benefitting
                                                                                 in the high volume, low margin operating environment. This is
                                                                                 consistent with market leasing activity, with variation in performance
                                                                                 across sectors as well as locations. A strong development pipeline is
Stage two of Five Mile Shopping Centre is currently under construction           alleviating some pressure on the demand for retail space with recent
and is due to open early 2017. The 8,000 sqm second stage consists of            lease deals including 129 Hastings Street at $423.50/sqm. A stand out
three large format retail buildings to be leased by The Warehouse, Noel          purchase in the Hawke’s Bay over the past year was the SBS building
Leeming and Look Sharp, along with smaller specialty stores. The $130
million development of 23,000 sqm also includes Five Mile stage one
                                                                                 in Hastings, achieving a yield of 5.68%.
which opened in October last year.

                                                                            11
Tauranga/                                                                       Dunedin
Mt Maunganui                                                                    The 7.6% vacancy rate in Dunedin is the lowest recorded since 2012.
                                                                                Leasing activity has been strong in the past 12 months which has
                                                                                been driven by a number of tenant moves throughout the CBD.
The latest figures from Paymark shows another buoyant period
                                                                                There were 27 leases counterbalanced by 33 vacated shops, signalling
of spending activity in the area. The annual percentage change
                                                                                the level of churn in the market. The overall results highlight how the
between August 2015 and 2016 shows retail spending in the Bay
                                                                                retail sector is changing, with retailers jostling for position as well
of Plenty up 10.1% by value and 8.9% by volume outpacing all other
                                                                                as securing space in restrengthened premises. The ‘Golden Block’
regions across New Zealand. The results also highlight, however,
                                                                                continues to attract enquiry from retailers around the country,
that margins remain thin for retailers in the area, relying on volume           but opportunities remain scarce. Pedestrian flows continue to be
gains to drive profitability. This has been translated into the stable          strong in the area, dominated by the three main malls. More large
retail rental environment with prime rents over the past year                   format retail premises could be an option for Dunedin which
ranging from $300/sqm to $500/sqm in Tauranga and $375/sqm to                   continues to attract national retailers. The proposed second genera-
$600/sqm in Mt Maunganui. Investment intentions remain strong.                  tion District Plan will include new commercial and mixed use
Current yields for prime retail premises range from 6.50% to 7.50%              zones in order to accommodate for projected demand for retail
in Tauranga and 4.00% to 5.50% in Mount Maunganui, which has                    space. Investment activity is strong and competition from locals
firmed by 100 basis points over the past year. Given the growth                 and investors outside the area has pushed yields even further over
outlook in population, house price rises and business activity                  the past 12 months. We expect more firming to continue as the
we forecast retail conditions to continue improving.                            search for yield remains.

94 Elizabeth Street
Tauranga
                                                                                Dunedin Retail Vacancy Rate

                                                                                              9%
                                                                                                                  8.1%        8.1%                8.2%
                                                                                                                                         8.0%
                                                                                              8%                                                           7.6%

                                                                                              7%
                                                                               Vacancy Rate

                                                                                              6%
                                                                                                     5.1%
                                                                                              5%

                                                                                              4%

                                                                                              3%

                                                                                              2%

                                                                                              1%

                                                                                              0%
                                                                                                     J u n -1 1

                                                                                                                               Jun-13

                                                                                                                                         Jun-14

                                                                                                                                                  Jun-15

                                                                                                                                                           Jun-16
                                                                                                                  Jun-12

NZ Uniforms has leased the former Dick Smith building at 94 Elizabeth
Street for $250/sqm. The 400 sqm tenancy is situated on the entrance to
Tauranga CBD and is surrounded by national retail brands such as No.1
                                                                                               Source: Colliers International Research
Shoe Warehouse, Kathmandu and Plastic Box.

                                                                          12
Outlook
The sector’s momentum has been created from a prolonged period                The wise and weary of the industry – many who have seen these
of positive economic conditions. Commentators forecast this to                conditions before – will be the beneficiaries in the game that involves
continue – posting near, or above, long-term indicators.                      quick and calculated moves to stay ahead of the competition.

                                                                              Keeping abreast of the latest trends in retail is not everyone’s path
Factors keeping consumers and retailers much more content on
                                                                              to success in this upswing stage of the cycle, especially those looking
their future trading expectations than in the past year will be:
                                                                              for passive property returns.
>>national house price rises,
                                                                              While the stakes have been raised by this newly transformed retail
>>strong population gains,                                                    industry, some traditional market characteristics will remain.
>>a booming tourism market, and                                               Retailers should expect to have higher rents next year and investors
                                                                              should expect to pay more in this competitive purchasing cycle
>>a dairy sector that is climbing out of its recent lows.
                                                                              based on low interest rates and a growing depth in the number of
The key for retailer and landlord prosperity will be to not get caught        ‘cashed-up’ and ‘yield hungry’ purchasers.
up in the hype and move too far ahead of the day-to-day activities.           While retail is not for the faint hearted, economic conditions
Perhaps most importantly, remaining grounded in the knowledge                 currently supporting both retailers and investors suggest there
of the cyclical nature of economic and property markets.                      is little to steer the sector from its current growth path.

                                                                                NorthWest Shopping Centre
                                                                                Massey, Auckland
                                                                                Stride Property Limited’s NorthWest Shopping Centre opened in
                                                                                October last year comprising nearly 100 retail shops. NorthWest
                                                                                Two is located opposite the existing shopping centre. The second
                                                                                stage will provide around 7,700 sqm of additional retail, dining and
                                                                                office space and will border the Westgate Town Square. Zone 7 of
                                                                                Northwest has now been completed and comprises 25,000 sqm.
                                                                                Tenants include Harvey Norman, Rebel Sport, and Briscoes.

                                                                         13
A Selection of New Zealand Retail Leasing Activity
            Project Name/Address                     Precinct         NLA (m²)     Date                          Tenant

 AUCKLAND

 Atrium on Elliot, L2 & 3, Elliot Street           Auckland CBD           2,016   Q4 2015                     The Warehouse

 85 Cavendish Drive                                   Manukau             1,239   Q1 2016                  Mt Smart Marine Ltd

 Level 1, 191 Queen Street                         Auckland CBD           662     Q3 2016                       Footlocker

 Sylvia Park, 286 Mount Wellington Highway        Mount Wellington        2,528   Q4 2016                          Zara

 Sylvia Park, 286 Mount Wellington Highway        Mount Wellington        2,300   Q4 2016                          H&M

 Commercial Bay Retail Precinct, Customs Street    Auckland CBD           TBC     ~Q3 2018                         H&M

 DUNEDIN

 210 George Street                                     CBD                157     Q3 2015                      Flight Centre

 398 Cumberland Street                                 CBD                500     Q3 2015                    Anytime Fitness

 629 Princes Street                                    CBD                1,260   Q3 2015                        Animates

 239 George Street                                     CBD                150     Q2 2016                         Merric

 WELLINGTON

 256 Lambton Quay                                      CBD                TBC       TBC                          Topshop

 100 Taranaki Street                                   CBD                726     Q2 2016                     The White Star

 Retail 9, Airport Retail Park                       Lyall Bay            398     Q2 2016                    Brewary Limited

 55 Willis Street                                      CBD                109     Q2 2016                       Timberland

 49 Willis Street                                       CBD               122     Q2 2016                    David Lawrence

 93-97 Manners Street                                   CBD               250     Q3 2016                     Platypus Shoes

 264 Lambton Quay                                       CBD               145     Q3 2016                       Cotton On

 CHRISTCHURCH

 ANZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD        TBC     Q4 2016                        Glassons

 ANZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD        TBC     Q4 2016                      Hallensteins

 ANZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD        TBC     Q4 2016                     Mecca Maxima

 BNZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD        482     Q4 2016                          BNZ

 BNZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD        310     Q4 2016                       Pharmacy

 BNZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD        119     Q4 2016                       Michael Hill

 BNZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD         63     Q4 2016                        Pandora

 BNZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD        157     Q4 2016                         Spark

 BNZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD        100     Q4 2016                        Repotoire

 BNZ Centre                                       Christchurch CBD        146     Q4 2016                       Simply NZ

 PALMERSTON NORTH

 27 Princess Street                               Palmerston North        466     Q1 2016                        Animates

 126-150 Rangitikei Street                        Palmerston North        2,431   Q1 2016                        Farmers

 126-150 Rangitikei Street                        Palmerston North        526     Q2 2016                         Repco

 210-248 Rangitikei Street                        Palmerston North        723     Q3 2016                  Bed, Bath & Beyond

 NELSON

 70 Achilles Avenue                                 Nelson CBD            152     Q1 2016                CBD Craft Brewery Depot

 126 Trafalgar Street                                 Nelson              193     Q2 2016                      United Video

 296 High Street                                      Motueka             220     Q3 2016                 High end Charity Shop

 TAURANGA/MT MAUNGANUI

 301 Cameron Road                                    Tauranga             248     Q1 2016                Harmony Home Furniture

 T2, 511 Cameron Road                                Tauranga             200     Q2 2016                   Smartvets Limited

 Unit B3, Lot 4, 30 Gravatt Road                     Papamoa               95     Q2 2016                  James Street Burgers

 199 Maunganui Road                               Mount Maunganui          76     Q3 2016                   Alice & Co. Limited

 T2, 245 SH2, Bethlehem                              Bethlehem            126     Q4 2016                    The Pizza Library

 ROTORUA

 1281 Tutanekai Street                                Rotorua             200     Q3 2016                          Max

 QUEENSTOWN

 Five Mile Stage 1                                    Frankton            ~530    Q4 2015          Bed Bath and Beyond & Caroline Eve

 Remarkables Park, Hawthorne Drive                    Frankton            1,780   Q4 2016                Harvey Norman & Bakery

 Five Mile Stage 2                                    Frankton            7,650   Q1 2017    Warehouse, Noel Leeming, LookSharp, Lighting Plus

Source: Colliers International Research

                                                                     14
A Selection of New Zealand Retail Sales Activity
                                                            Estimated     Sale                      Sale Price
     Project Name/Address                   Precinct                                   Yield                                  Vendor                       Purchaser
                                                            NLA (m2)      Date                         ($)
 NATIONWIDE
 Countdown Portfolio – 19 Countdown                                                                                                                  Stride Property (Formerly
                                           Nationwide         Various    Q3 2015       6.50%        287,000,000       Antipodean Supermarkets
 Supermarkets                                                                                                                                         DNZ Property Fund Ltd)
 Three Westfield Shopping                                                                                                                                 Scentre Group
 Centres Sold – Queensgate,                Nationwide         Various    Q4 2015       8.20%        549,000,000    Scentre Group (New Zealand) Ltd    (New Zealand) Limited
 Chartwell and Glenfield                                                                                                                               & Ladstone Holdings
 AUCKLAND

 Zone 7, Westgate Town Centre                Massey           ~25,000    Q3 2015       7.00%        $82,500,000       NZ Retail Property Group         Kiwi Property Group

 Rialto Centre, 153 Broadway               Newmarket            TBC      Q1 2016       5.20%         $3,050,000            Private Vender                Private Investor

 Countdown, 90 Great South Rd               Papakura           ~2,980    Q1 2016       7.50%         $9,750,000       Papakura Super Trustees         Omara Property Group

                                                                                      Average
 8 Units, 252 Oteha Valley Rd                 Albany           1,024     Q2 2016                     $9,057,000            AEG Oteha Ltd                      Various
                                                                                       5.01%

 Wendy’s, 702 Mt Albert Rd                  Mt Albert           289      Q2 2016       4.32%         $3,755,000            Private Vendor               Private Purchaser

 The Hobsonville Centre,
                                           Hobsonville         6,988*    Q3 2016     Undisclosed    $36,295,000            Hobsonville Ltd              Trust Investments
 124 Hobsonville Rd

 Three Kings Shopping Centre & Plaza       Three Kings         10,194    Q3 2016**     5.88%        $37,000,000         Antipodean Properties                 Private

 CHRISTCHURCH

 3/950 Ferry Rd                             Ferrymead           394      Q3 2016       6.10%         $1,732,000     Clarkmead Properties Limited         Private Investor

 HAMILTON

 Te Awa, The Base, Te Rapa Rd                Te Rapa           87,000    Q3 2015     Confidential   $192,500,000        Tainui Group Holdings             Kiwi Property

 Hamilton Central Shopping Centre,
                                          Hamilton CBD         18,360    Q1 2016       10.35%       $13,400,000        Stride Property Limited        Stark Property Limited
 Corner of Bryce, Tristam & Ward St

 Centre Place South, 501 Victoria St      Hamilton CBD         10,933    Q3 2016       7.96%        $46,800,000      Kiwi Property Group Limited           Undisclosed

 QUEENSTOWN
                                                                                                                                                       ARM Ninety Two Ltd
 Five Mile Queenstown Stage 1             Buildings 2 & 3      9,531     Q2 2016       6.71%        $40,894,000     Queenstown Gateway (5M) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                       (Mitchell Mackersy)

 Five Mile Queenstown Stage 1               Building 4         2,480     Q2 2016       6.75%        $11,163,878     Queenstown Gateway (5M) Ltd      Oakwood Properties Ltd

 NELSON

 240 Trafalgar Street                         Nelson            540      Q3 2016       7.50%         $1,600,000             Private Trust                  Private Trust

 PALMERSTON NORTH

 Countdown, 673-679 Main Street         Palmerston North       1,960     Q2 2015       7.80%         $7,350,000            P P Projects Ltd            Mainland Capital Ltd

                                                                                                                                                       Geoffrey John Harold
 Rangitikei Flooring, 691-693 Main St   Palmerston North        665      Q3 2015       8.30%         $1,005,000          Waller Family Trust
                                                                                                                                                            Blackmore

 Smith City, 537 Main St                Palmerston North       2,280     Q3 2015       8.47%         $4,950,000     Humphries Developments Ltd           Monsoon NZ Ltd

 Palmerston Indoor Sports Arena,
                                        Palmerston North       1,410     Q2 2016       8.22%         $1,460,000              Ihaka Trust               Neville Hillary Smith
 180 Church St

 AvantiPlus, 407 Ferguson St            Palmerston North        925      Q2 2016       8.00%         $1,125,000    DRP & TJ Tylee Investment Trust    Bowcorp Holdings Ltd

 KFC, 201-213 Rangitikei St             Palmerston North        235      Q2 2016       6.00%         $2,065,000     Murray Prankerd Nominees Ltd           Mendip Trust

 DUNEDIN

 The Warehouse, 64 Hillside Rd            South Dunedin        23,683    Q3 2015       7.25%        $14,150,000     Eldamos Investments Limited        Mm Group 1 Limited

 301 George St                            Dunedin CBD           193      Q4 2015       7.00%         $1,900,000            Private Investor              Private Investor

 271 Thames St                               Oamaru             255      Q2 2016       6.10%         $1,890,000    Resturant Brands Proeprties Ltd       Private Investor

 5-9 Irwell St                                 Gore            3,760     Q3 2016       7.80%         $5,658,000            Private Investor              Private Investor

 TAURANGA/MT MAUNGANUI

 14 Marsh St                                Tauranga            524      Q3 2016       5.10%         $1,880,000       MTH Investments Limited           Selinden Park LTD

 Unit 3, 22 Gravatt Rd                      Papamoa             500      Q3 2016     Sold Vacant     $1,450,000       Kaurivale Holdings Limited           Phillip Borrie

Source: Colliers International Research                     *Site Area                **Unconditional date (due to settle mid-November)

                                                                                     15
A Selection of New Zealand Retail Development Updates
                                                                Estimated                                     Estimated
       Project Name/Address                    Precinct                                 Status                                      Owner/Developer
                                                                NLA (m2)                                      Completion
 NATIONWIDE
 Progressive Enterprises – $500 million
                                               Nationwide        Various               Proposed                 ~2019              Progressive Enterprises
 expansion
 Foodstuffs – Seven new supermarkets           Nationwide        Various               Proposed                 Various                  Foodstuffs

 AUCKLAND

 NorthWest Shopping Centre Stage 2             Westgate           7,700            Under Construction           Q3 2016            Stride Property Limited
 Sylvia Park, H&M and Zara                  Mount Wellington      ~4,800           Under Construction           Q4 2016                 Kiwi Property
 Commercial Bay Retail Centre                  CBD Core           18,000           Under Construction           Q3 2018      Precinct Properties Holdings Limited
 Ormiston Town Centre (Block F & J)            Flat Bush          30,000           Under Construction          Q3/4 2018   Todd Property Ormiston Town Centre Ltd
 Orchard Business Park (Retail Hub)             Albany            2,300            Under Construction            TBC           Orchard Park Retail Hub Limited
 Westgate Zone 9, 10, 11 & 12                  Auckland           67,000           Under Construction            TBC         NZ Retail Property Group (NZRPG)
 Sylvia Park                                Mount Wellington     ~20,000           Under Construction            2022                   Kiwi Property
 HAMILTON
 Lakewood Centre                               Cambridge          5,200     Construction commencing Q4 2016     Q4 2017            JV – Foster Develop Ltd
 WELLINGTON
 Kapiti Landing Business Park                     TBC             42,000           Under Construction           Q2 2016                 Todd Property
 Lombard Lane                                Lombard Lane         1,500            Under Construction           Q4 2016             Cook Strait Properties
 Cuba Mall                                   Wellington CBD        745             Under Construction           Q1 2017                     TBC
 Cinema Complex                               Queen Street         TBC             Under Construction           Q3 2017            Venture Consulting Ltd
 CHRISTCHURCH
 Pegasus                                        Pegasus           1,500            Under Construction           Q4 2016             Todd Property Limited
 BNZ Centre (Stage 2)                       Christchurch CBD      18,600           Under Construction           Q4 2016           Lichfield Holdings Limited
 The Hub Hornby                                 Hornby            22,000           Under Construction           Q4 2016            Shopping Centre Inv Ltd
 Prestons Shopping Centre (Stage 1)            Marshland           TBC                 Proposed                 Q1 2017       Ngai Tahu Property Group Limited
 ANZ Centre                                 Christchurch CBD      1,700            Under Construction           Q1 2017                CHC Properties
 The Crossing                               Christchurch CBD      14,000           Under Construction           Q1 2017      Crossing CBD/Karen Walker/Barkers
 The Terrace (Stage 1)                      Christchurch CBD      2,562            Under Construction           Q1 2017               Hereford Holdings
 West Melton Shopping Complex                 West Melton         2,000            Under Construction           Q1 2017      James Lloyd Developments Limited
 New Retail Hub, 87 Riccarton Road             Riccarton           TBC             Under Construction           Q2 2017             GP Mainland Limited
 The Terrace (Stage 2)                      Christchurch CBD       911             Under Construction           Q4 2017               Hereford Holdings
 Styx Centre                                    Belfast           20,000               Proposed                 Q3 2018              Calco Developments
 Ravenswood                                   Ravenswood          8,000                Proposed                  TBC              Infinity Investment Group
 QUEENSTOWN
 Marine Parade (Eichardts – Extension)            CBD              200             Under Construction           Q4 2016                 Louis Vuitton
 Remarkables Park "Entertainment
                                                Frankton          3,000            Under Construction           Q4 2016               Private Developer
 Precinct" – Stage 2
 Pak n Save, Shotover Park                      Frankton          ~6,000           Under Construction           Q4 2016        Foodstuffs South Island Limited
 81 Beach Street (Ex – ANZ)                Queenstown Central      450             Under Construction           Q4 2016         Redson Corp Holdings Limited
 Marine Parade (Eichardts – extension)     Queenstown Central      600             Under Construction           Q4 2016          Skyline Investments Limited
 Five Mile (Stage 2)                            Frankton          7,650            Under Construction           Q1 2017               Private Developer
 Remarkables Park "Market Street"
                                                Frankton           800             Under Construction           Q1 2017           Remarkables Park Limited
 Stage 2 – Remarkables House
 23-27 Shotover Street, ex Worldbar site   Queenstown Central      500             Under Construction           Q2 2017              Boyd Corp Limited
 Queenstown Central (Stage 1)                   Frankton          11,300               Proposed                 Q4 2017               Private Developer
 Remarkables Park "Market Street"
                                                Frankton           520                  Planning                Q2 2018                 Safari Group
 Stage 3 – Wyndham Hotel
 TAURANGA/MT MAUNGANUI
 Tauranga Crossing Stage 1
                                                Tauriko           17,800           Under Construction           Q3 2016           Tauranga Crossing Limited
 (Bulk Retail Centre), 1/5 Taurika Drive
 Tauranga Crossing Stage 2
                                                Tauriko           37,000               Proposed                 Q2 2018           Tauranga Crossing Limited
 (Cinema Complex), 1/5 Taurika Drive
 PALMERSTON NORTH
                                                                                                                             Brian Green Properties (Palmerston
 126-150 Rangitikei Street                  Palmerston North      2,700               Construction              Q4 2016
                                                                                                                                         North) Ltd
 NAPIER/HASTINGS
 Village Exchange                            Havelock North        942             Under Construction           Q4 2016          Lowmac Properties Limited
 MidCity Plaza                                   Napier            TBC             Under Construction           Q1 2017                     TBC
 The Park Megacentre                            Hastings           TBC             Under Construction           Q4 2017           Caboo Properties Limited

Source: Colliers International Research

                                                                              16
Commercial Bay
   Auckland CBD, Auckland
   Demolition is now underway at Commercial Bay, the
   $681 million development at the former Downtown
   Shopping Centre site. Owned and developed by NZX
   Listed Precinct Properties, the complex will include a
   three level retail precinct and is expected to open by
   October 2018. The 18,000 sqm of retail will consist of
   100 shops including a flagship store for international
   retailer H&M.

For more information contact:                                                                                        Colliers International Research
                                                                                                                     and Consulting offers a range
Alan McMahon                                            Aimee Simpson                                                of commercial and residential
National Director | Research                            Research Co-ordinator                                        property solutions:
& Consulting
                                                        Chris Farhi                                                  • Property Investment strategies
Chris Dibble                                            Director | Strategic Consulting                              • Demand & Supply Studies
Director | Research & Consulting
                                                        Caity Pask                                                   • Market Analysis & Forecasts
Leo Lee                                                 Senior Analyst | Strategic Consulting                        • Feasibility Analysis
Senior Research Consultant
                                                                                                                     • Catchment Analysis
Elena Christodoulou                                     Colliers International
                                                                                                                     • Lease Audit & Benchmarking
Research Analyst                                        Level 27, SAP Tower
                                                        151 Queen St,                                                • Site Options Analysis
Emily Duncan                                            Auckland                                                     • Corporate Real Estate Strategy
Research Analyst                                        +64 9 358 1888                                               • Financial Analysis
                                                                                                                     • Business Cases

Whilst all care has been taken to provide reasonably accurate information within this report, Colliers International cannot guarantee
the validity of all data and information utilised in preparing this research. Accordingly Colliers International New Zealand limited, do
not make any representation of warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content contained herein
and no legal liability is to be assumed or implied with respect thereto.
© All content is Copyright Colliers International New Zealand Limited 2016 and may not be reproduced without expressed permission.
You can also read