OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE - May 2019 DHL Global Forwarding, Freight Dominique von Orelli - Global Head, Ocean Freight
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PUBLIC
DHL Global Forwarding, Freight
OCEAN FREIGHT
MARKET UPDATE
May 2019
Publication Date 30th April 2019
Dominique von Orelli – Global Head, Ocean Freight
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PUBLIC
Contents
TOPIC OF THE MONTH
Carriers continue to prepare for the implementation of the IMO 2020 sulphur fuel cap
HIGH LEVEL DEVELOPMENT
MARKET OUTLOOK
Freight Rates and Volume Development
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & DEMAND DEVELOPMENT
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT
CARRIERS FINANCIALRESULTS 2018
REGULATIONS
? DID YOU KNOW?
Top 30 Ports 2018
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | May 2019 2
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Topic of the Month
Carriers continue to prepare for the implementation of the IMO 2020 sulphur fuel cap
MORE SHIPS BEING REROFITTED THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
Just over 50 ships have been retrofitted with scrubbers so far. However the number of
Three options to be compliant
containerships to be retrofitted this year will increase steadily, with up to 30 ships expected to
be out of service each month in the 2nd half of 2019. Most of these retrofits, which take the ships
out of service for between 30 to 50 days, are scheduled to coincide with their regular dry-docking
Option 1 Compliant LSFO 0.5%
dates in order to minimize the vessel’s downtime.
Spread HSFO 3.5% and LSFO 0.5% at approx $ 250 per ton
The rate of scrubber take up has continued to increase as more containership owners also opt
to install scrubbers, with the total number of scrubbers ordered so far estimated to have
Option 2 EGCSs (Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems, also called scrubbers) exceeded 700 units. Of this, about 200 will be fitted on newbuildings, while the remaining 500+
estimated at about USD 6 – 10 million per vessel units are expected to be retrofitted on existing ships.
At the same time carriers have started to negotiate agreements with suppliers for bunkering
Option 3 LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) and ensuring the supply of low sulphur oil (LSFO) before the new global sulphur cap of 0.5%
Shipping Lines seem reluctant to use it because for the safety for marine fuel oil comes into effect on 1 January 2020.
risks
Regardless whether a ship is retrofitted with a scrubber or has to use LSFO, cost of compliance
with the new regulation will be significant and will impact freight rates. The expected increase
on transport costs is estimated at $150 - $250 per TEU as of Q3, 2019.
Source: Alphaliner, DHL, etc
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | May 2019 3
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High Level Market Development – Supply and Demand
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP GROWTH BY REGION1) DHL TRADE BAROMETER6) SUPPLY/DEMAND
SUPPLY/DEMANDGROWTH
GROWTH(ANNUALIZED),
(ANNUALIZED), IN % 2)2)
IN%
CAGR 75
2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 7%
(2020-23) 70
6% Demand
65 Growth
EURO 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 60 5% %
MEA 2.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 55 4% Supply
50 3% Growth %
AMER 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% Ocean
45 2%
ASPA 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 40 Global
1%
35
0%
DGF World 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 30
2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
’17 ’18 ’19
WORLD CONTAINER INDEX (WCI)3) SHANGHAI CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX (SCFI)4) BUNKER PRICE INDEX5)
3,000 1,200 1,000
1,100
2,500 800
1,000
2,000
900 600
1,500 800
700 400
1,000 Actual Actual BIX 380
600
500 Forecast Forecast 200 BIX MGO
500
0 400 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
’17 ’18 ’19 ’17 ’18 ’19 17 18 ’19
1) real GDP, Global Insight, Copyright © IHS, Q1 2019 . All rights reserved. 2) Demand growth = Port-to-Port Container Traffic growth. Supply growth = Fleet Growth. Source: Drewry Maritime Research. 3) Drewry, in USD/40ft container, including BAF & THC both ends, 42 individual routes, excluding
intra-Asia routes, 5.5% predicted freight rate increase. 4) Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in USD/20ft container & USD/40ft ctnr for US routes, 15 routes from Shanghai. 5) Bunker Index, in USD/metric ton, Bunker Index MGO (BIX MGO) = avg. Global Bunker Price for marine gasoil (MGO) port prices; (BIX
380= avg. Global Bunker Price for all 380 centistoke (cSt) port prices; both index published on the Bunker Index website., Forecast based on HIS Market assumption of avg. USD70 per Brent barrel equaling Nov18 price. 6) DHL Global Trade Barometer Mar19, index value represents weighted average of
current growth and upcoming two months of trade, a value at 50 is considered neutral, expanding above 50, and shrinking below 50.
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Market Outlook May 2019 – Major Trades
Further extensive blank sailings are announced for May and carriers push for a rate increase.
EXPORT REGION IMPORT REGION CAPACITY RATE EXPORT REGION IMPORT REGION CAPACITY RATE
AMNO = =/+ AMNO = +
EURO AMLA
AMLA = =/+ ASPA = =
ASPA - = EURO = =
MENAT - = MENAT = =
SSA = = SSA -- ++
AMLA = = ASPA = =
AMNO ASPA
ASPA = = AMNO - +
EURO = = AMLA = -
MENAT = = EURO - +
SSA = = MENAT = +
OCEANIA - +
Strong Moderate No Moderate Strong
KEY ++ + = - --
Increase Increase Change Decline Decline
Source: DGF
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Market Outlook May 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Major Trades
Market outlook on smaller trades available in the back-up
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES OUTLOOK
ASPA – EURO Further extensive blank sailings are announced and carriers are pushing hard for a GRI in May.
EURO – ASPA & MEA Upcoming space crunches because of the blank sailings continue to put much pressure on space and container availability.
Rates in May are on the decline. But all carrier are upbeat on the volume increase to Mexico & WCSA for the upcoming peak season (June
ASPA – AMLA
2019), and have resisted capacity injection. Thus, tight space and surging rates are expected from June.
ASPA – AMNO Overall, May outlook expected to be tight on capacity with the void sailings and limitation on Panama draft into USEC.
Ocean rates are strong and still increasing; inland carriages in US remain problematic; congestion on USEC & CAEC causes severe delays
EURO – AMNO
into USMW area. MX: Space is tight
Volume increase due to the pre-Ramadan rush. Carriers are restricting low paying cargo and creating severe space issues. After the
ASPA – MENAT
successful GRI in April, carriers now announced a further GRI in May.
ASPA – ASPA Rates are stable. On the IPBC trade the space continues to be tight also due to the pre-Ramadan rush.
AMNO – EURO Rates from US to EURO remain flat. No change to capacity.
Source: DGF
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Economic Outlook & Demand Development
Global economic growth is stabilizing, but still vulnerable
Leading indicators for the eurozone’s industrial sectors remain weak and consistent with recession. Particularly troubling is the industrial downturn
in DE, where the March IHS Markit PMI fell to 44.1, the lowest in nearly seven years. The risk of adverse spillovers to domestic demand persists, but
EURO
offsetting factors such as mild inflation and looser fiscal policies are providing some support. Employment is also holding up, helping to stabilize
consumer sentiment. The factors typically associated with recessions are not present currently.
In the US the pace of inventory accumulation is unsustainably high in the Q1, which means inventories will be a drag on growth for the balance of
2019. For all of 2019, IHS Markit forecasts 2.3% real GDP growth, followed by 2.1% growth next year. After 2020, a period of
AMNO below-trend growth is expected that balances the risks between continued trend-like growth and a recession, and that puts the unemployment rate
on a gradually rising path. Nevertheless, downside risks to the forecast remain elevated—especially related to policy mistakes, including (but not
limited to) trade.
Increased likelihood in JP that the economy contracted in the first quarter. Consumer spending expected to rises before the October sales tax hike,
ASPA and then falls afterward. CN’s government should be able to stabilize growth with measured stimulus policies & an agreement with
the US to end the trade war - which is more likely than not, given increased pressure on both governments.
Negative trends have stopped worsening. There has been some progress on trade negotiations. The Fed and other central banks have hit the pause
EMERGING
button, which has allowed some emerging-market central banks to stop raising interest rates and others to cut. China’s industrial pain seems to be
MARKETS
easing, and commodity prices have flattened out.
Manufacturing output growth almost stalled, while service-sector growth accelerated to the joint-highest reading in eight months. The resulting
DEMAND gap between the two sectors was the widest since Aug ‘15 and among the biggest seen in the past decade. The weakness of global trade remained a
DEVELOPMENT key drag on demand growth and an area of additional concern for the outlook. Worldwide exports of goods and services fell again, with the rate of
decline the steepest since May ‘16, led by a further drop of goods exports.
Source: IHS Markit, IHS Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing, a PMI at 50 is considered neutral, expanding above 50, and business shrinking below 50.
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Capacity Development
CAPACITY
Plunging spot freight rates on the Asia – North Europe route have forced several carriers to mitigate the capacity deployed on the route. The rate decline happens as
capacity increases on the trade continue to outpace demand growth. The OCEAN Alliance will blank 4 sailings to North Europe in early May, as a response to the
expected low demand in China after the May Labour day holiday. THE Alliance will also void 3 sailings during the same period. The blank sailings will affect westbound
trade in weeks 17 to 19, and will reduce overall trade capacity by 60,000 TEU during the holiday period.
HMM also backed out from an initially planned increase in the capacity of its stand-alone ‘AEX’ service. The carrier has decided to maintain the weekly capacity of this
service at 4,700 – 5,400 TEU, instead of deploying vessels of 6,300 – 6,700 TEU as HMM had earlier scheduled. HMM will now combine the AEX Service and its Asia-
Pacific North West ‘PN2’ service into a pendulum service in early May. As the ‘AEX’ and ‘PN2’ will share the same Asian range, HMM will be able to operate the service
with 15 ships, saving 2 ships compared to the current pattern and to maximize the filling ratio of the ships in the Asian range.
However, these capacity management measures will not be sufficient to mitigate the effects of the capacity increase on the trade that was triggered by the launch of
one new OCEAN Alliance string (‘NEU7/CES’) in April and the upsize of one THE Alliance string. Average weekly capacity will still be 7% higher in May and June,
compared to the same period last year, while demand is forecast to grow by only 2-3%.
The idle containership fleet of over 500 TEU has dropped further to 108 units for 321,337 TEU as at 15 April 2019, representing just 1.4% of the total fleet. Idle
numbers fell across all size segments above 2,000 TEU, with several sectors enjoying a scrubber retrofit bonus as demand for substitute tonnage vessels
undergoing retrofitting are steadily increasing.
Evergreen is to assign the maxi-neo-panamax TRITON, a vessel with a 20-row beam of 51.20 m and an Loa of 369.00 m to a Panama Canal-routed Fare East – USEC
service. The 14,424 TEU TRITON will become the first-ever containership of this beam and length to transit the canal.
About a year ago, the Panama Canal Authority announced an increase of the maximum allowable beam for vessels transiting the Panama Canal from 49.00 m (19 rows)
to 51.25 m (20 rows). However the regulation included a max length of 366.00 m only. At 369.00 m the TRITON is 3.00 m above the current length maximum, for
which it received an exemption. The successful trial transit of Evergreen’s TRITON scheduled on 15 May 2019, could pave the way for more containerships of this size
to be deployed on the Far East – USEC route, allowing carriers to further increase economies of scale.
Source: Alphaliner, Dynaliners, carriers
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Carrier Financial Results 2018
Only six of the 11 top carriers who publish their financial results ended in the black, often with marginal net profits.
CARRIER FINANCIAL RESULTS FULL YEAR 2017-18 (US$ MILLION)
Revenue Operating Profit Operating Profit Margin Net Profit
Carrier 2017 2018 % 2017 2018 % 2017 2018 2017 2018 %
Maersk (Ocean business) 7), 8) 22'023 28'366 29% 2'777 3'007 8% 12.6% 10.6% n.a. n.a. n.a.
CMA CGM 2), 5) 21'116 23'476 11% 1'575 610 -61% 7.5% 2.6% 701 34 -95%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 1), 5) 12'814 17'376 36% 267 342 28% 2.1% 2.0% 264 252 -5%
Hapag-Lloyd 1), 5), 8) 13'414 15'583 16% 1'419 1'540 8% 10.6% 9.9% 44 63 43%
OOCL (container transport & logistics) 5), 11) 6'078 6'547 8% 105 210 100% 1.7% 3.2% -12 55 558%
Evergreen Marine Corp. 1), 5) 4'933 5'626 14% 223 6 -97% 4.5% 0.1% 229 10 -96%
Yang Ming 1), 5) 4'294 4'715 10% 17 -191 -1236% 0.4% -4.0% 11 -219 -2184%
ONE 3) n.a. 8'054 n.m. n.a. n.a. n.m. n.a. n.m. n.a. -491 n.m.
Zim 5) 2'978 3'248 9% 162 34 -79% 5.4% 1.0% 6 -126 -2200%
Wan Hai 1) 2'045 2'182 7% 106 32 -70% 5.2% 1.5% 86 37 -57%
HMM (container shipping business 1), 5) 3.9 4.2 8% -0.28 -0.45 62% -7.2% -10.8% n.a. n.a. n.a.
Average 9) 89'700.1 107'124.3 19% 6'650.2 5'589.2 -16% 7.4% 5.2% 1'328.8 105.1 -92%
Source: Alphaliner, DynaLiners; n.a. = not available, n.m. = not meaningful, 1) local currency numbers were converted into US$ using the average exchange rate for relevant financial period, 2) CMA CGM include NOL/APL, 3) results are Q1 to Q3 ’18 of
Japanese financial year, not calendar year, 5) operating profit is “Core EBIT”, 6) including UASC from 24 May 17, 7) including Hamburg Sued from 1 Dec 17, 8) operating profit is EBITDA, 9) Average excluding ONE, 10) incl. OOCL from 7 Aug 18, 11) excl.
Long Beach Container Terminal in 2018 & real estate investments
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Did you know?
Top 30 Ports 2018
Port Country mTEU 2018 Growth % Port Country mTEU 2018 Growth %
1 Shanghai China 42.01 4.4% 16 Kaohsiung Taisan 10.45 1.7%
2 Singapore Singapore 36.60 8.7% 17 Dalian China 9.77 0.6%
3 Ningbo China 26.35 7.1% 18 Tanjung Pelepas Malaysia 8.96 7.0%
4 Shenzhen China 25.74 2.1% 19 Hamburg Germany 8.77 -1.0%
5 Guangzhou China 21.87 7.4% 20 Laem Chabang Thailand 8.07 3.7%
6 Busan S. Korea 21.66 5.7% 21 New York/New Jersey USA 7.18 7.0%
7 Hong Kong China 19.60 -5.7% 22 Colombo Sri Lanka 7.05 13.5%
8 Qingdao China 19.32 5.5% 23 Jakarta Indonesia 6.90 13.5%
9 Los Angeles/Long Beach USA 17.55 3.9% 24 Yingkou China 6.49 3.3%
10 Tianjin China 16.01 6.2% 25 Suzhou China 6.36 8.2%
11 Dubai UAE 14.95 -2.7% 26 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam 6.33 6.8%
12 Rotterdam Netherlands 14.51 5.7% 27 Bremerhaven Germany 5.48 -0.6%
13 Port Kelang Malaysia 12.32 2.8% 28 Valencia Spain 5.18 7.3%
14 Antwerp Belgium 11.10 6.2% 29 Tokyo Japan 5.11 1.1%
15 Xiamen China 10.70 3.1% 30 Manila Philippines 5.05 4.7%
Source: Alphaliner, including estimates
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B A C K- U P
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Market Outlook May 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (1/2)
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES OUTLOOK
EURO – AMLA Capacity unchanged, space becomes tighter and allocation needs to be checked closely. Expect slight increase on rates.
EURO – MENAT ME region shows same trend as ASPA; low space but stable rates
Rates remain stable and space is available. Congestion / PSS surcharge for PODs in Nigeria from all carriers remain for now, but situation shall
EURO – SSA
become better soon.
Rates in the market are stable. Space became tight again out of USEC & USGC Ports on services to M.East & India Subcontinent.
AMNO – MENAT
April-May bookings are min. 3 weeks out.
Despite the GRI announcements in the first quarter, rates to South Africa and West Africa remained unchanged at least until end of May.
AMNO – SSA
No changes in capacity. Space is available.
Soft Q 1 volumes for the lines have resulted in surplus space to ECSA.
AMNO – AMLA
Liners taking tougher stance on conditions like free time, CY drops as equipment is needed for AMLA exports.
Roll over and space constraints affecting entire region.
Equipment deficits in Colombia, Peru, EC creating delays in bookings
AMLA Exports Fuel shortages in Mexico causing intermodal delays and trucker availability
Congestion in T/Shipment ports within CENAC continue
Carriers continue to be reluctant in offering conditions without a cost(F/Time, Special Equipment)
Market remains stable for both TPWB/SPAC trades for the month of May. Space for South East Asia remains under pressure.
AMNO – ASPA
Space ex USWC to Oceania is tight after re-structure of direct service string.
Source: DGF
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Market Outlook May 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (2/2)
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES OUTLOOK
EURO MED - AMNO re-stabilized after mitigated rate increase in April.
EURO MED – AMLA Unchanged / stable. Nothing to be highlighted
EURO MED – ASPA Unchanged / stable. Nothing to be highlighted
EURO MED – MENAT Unchanged / stable. Nothing to be highlighted
EURO MED – SSA Unchanged / stable. Nothing to be highlighted
Slack season recovery is slower than expected hence the Ocean Alliance has confirmed for blank sailing of the CA3 service (Pending
ASPA-SPAC
confirmation for CA6 blanking) which may result in the largely anticipated success in increasing rates for the first half of May.
Source: DGF
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Market Outlook – Volume Outlook in Main Trade Lanes, 2018 Estimate &
2019/22 Growth Forecast in %
2018e, in mTEU 2019e-2022e CAGR, in %
N O R T H N O R T H
A M E R I C A A M E R I C A
I n c l . 4.0 mTEU +2.4% 8.5 mTEU +4.7% I n c l .
M E X I C O F A R E A S T M E X I C O
2.2 mTEU +3.1% 12.8 mTEU +2.4% 18.7 mTEU +3.1%
2.0 mTEU 1.6 mTEU
+4.5% +4.3% 1.6 mTEU +4.3% E U R O P E 7.3 mTEU +3.4% 1.7 mTEU +2.2%
L A T I N L A T I N
I n c l . M E D
A M E R I C A 1.7 mTEU +2.5% 4.2 mTEU +4.6% A M E R I C A
INTRA ASIA
excl. Oceania
41.6 mTEU +4.8%
GLOBAL CONTAINER TRADE 2018e 152.6 mTEU +4.1% CAGR 2019e-2022e
Mid-term growth is mainly driven by Asian tradelanes.
Source: Seabury Nov18 update
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Carrier Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances
M E R G E R S A N D A Q U I S I T I O N S
United Hyundai
China CMA Hapag Hamburg Maersk Yang
Cosco OOCL Evergreen APL Arab Merchant MSC K Line MOL NYK
Shipping CGM Lloyd Süd Line Ming
Shipping Marine
HYUNDAI
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING EVER CMA CGM MAERSK LINE OCEAN NETWORK YANG
HAPAG-LLOYD MERCHANT MSC
OOCL GREEN APL MARINE Hamburg Süd EXPRESS (ONE) MING
A L L I A N C E S
F O R M E R A L L I A N C E S P R E S E N T A L L I A N C E S
MAERSK LINE OOCL
CMA CGM
MSC
MAERSK LINE CHINA SHIPPING OCEAN CMA CGM
2M OCEAN 3 2M HMM (strategic
MSC UNITED ARAB
cooperation until May
ALLIANCE CHINA COSCO SHIPPING
SHIPPING COMPANY EVERGREEN
2020)
HAPAG-LLOYD HYUNDAI COSCO
HAPAG-LLOYD
MOL MERCHANT EVERGREEN K-LINE
G6 MARINE CKYHE THE ALLIANCE ONE
NYK HANJIN YANG MING
OOCL YANG MING
APL SHPPING
*Source: Carriers
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Acronyms and Explanations
2M - Carrier Alliance: Maersk / MSC Ocean 3 - Carrier Alliance: CMA, UASC, China Shipping
AMLA - Latin America OCRS - Operational Cost Recovery surcharge
AMNO - North America OOCL - Orient Overseas Container Line
AR - Argentina OWS - Overweight Surcharge
ASPA - AsiaPacific PH - Philippines
BR - Brazil PNW - Pacific North West
CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Ppt. - Percentage points
CENAC - Central Amercia and Caribbean PSW - Pacific South West
CKYHE - Carrier Alliance: Cosco, K-Line, YangMing, Hanjin and Evergreen RR(I) - Rate Restoration
CNC - CNC Line (Cheng Lie Navigation Co. Ltd.) SAEC - South America East Coast
DG - Dangerous Goods SAWC - South America West Coast
DWT - Dead Weight Tonnage SOLAS - Safety of Life at Sea
EB - Eastbound SPRC - South People’s Republic of China – South China
ECSA - East Coast South America SSA - Sub-Saharan Africa
EGLV - Evergreen Marine Corp SSL - Steam Ship Line
EURO - Europe T - Thousands
FMC - US Federal Marine Commission TEU - Twenty foot equivalent unit (20‘ container)
G6 - Carrier Alliance: APL, Hapag Lloyd, Hyundai, MOL, NYK and OOCL TP - Trans Pacific
GRI - General Rate Increase TSA - Trans Pacific Stabilization Agreement
HJS - Hanjin Shipping ULCS - Ultra Large Container Ship
HMM - Hyundai USGC - US Gulf Coast
HL - Hapag -Lloyd US FMC - US Federal Maritime Commission
HSUD - Hamburg Süd USEC - US East Coast
HWS - Heavy Weight Surcharge USWC - US West Coast
IA - Intra Asia VGM - Verified Gross Mass
IPBC - India Pakistan Bangladesh Colombo VLCS - Very Large Container Ship
IPI - Inland Point Intermodal VSA - Vessel Sharing Agreement
ISC - Indian Sub Continent WB - Westbound
MENAT - Middle East and North Africa WCSA - West Coast South America
ML - Maersk Line WHL - Wan Hai
mn - Millions YML - Yang Ming Line
MoM - Month-on-Month YoY - Year-on-Year
NOO - Non-operating (vessel) owners YTD - Year-to-Date
DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | May 2019 16
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