PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...

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PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
PERSPECTIVE
  October 2018

The latest insights in
global dairy markets
Your regular global overview of the dairy
industry along with trends in milk production,
commodity prices and dairy trade.
PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
Welcome back
to Perspective!
October 2018
The end of the year is fast approaching with Spring starting in the
Southern Hemisphere and the milk season in New Zealand off to a good
start. Speaking of new beginnings, I am delighted to introduce myself
as Director NZMP Marketing, taking over the strong legacy of customer
focused innovation established by Gillian Munnik. I have spent over 20 years
in the co-operative and look forward to applying all my experience to our
continued ambition to be the best dairy ingredients and solutions partner.
It is always interesting to reflect on how consumers globally perceive
our NZ food products. We wanted to share some research we have been
reading from NZ academic Dr Nic Lees. There are still lots of unclaimed
opportunities to capitalise on positive customer perceptions of NZ food
products. If you would like any more information please get in touch with
your account manager or email NZMPbrand@fonterra.com
This month, I wanted to highlight these four key trends for you:
1. Weather and production – Global weather conditions are lifting feed
   costs which is impacting margins and already production is starting
   to slow. Australia production is down and Europe production slowing.
   Weather in New Zealand has been good and a slight increase in
   production is anticipated.

2. Exports – Europe exports weakened in May 2018, down -6% compared
   to May 2017. Rolling 12-month average for Europe is still positive and
   both New Zealand and USA are showing export growth compared to
   the same month last year.

3. Imports – China and rest of Asia show continued import growth
   compared to the same month the previous year, building on strong
   12-month growth.

4. Consumer trends – The holiday season is coming up and Blimling
   anticipates some demand support for butter and cheese in the US.

If you have any suggestions for topics you would like to read about in
Perspective, or any other general feedback, we would love to hear from you.

Kind regards,

Alex Turnbull
Director, NZMP Marketing
PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
In this issue
   Guest feature                      4

   Global production                  6

   Fonterra milk collection            7

   Global exports                     8

   Global imports                     9

   Tracking the global dairy market   10

   Global indicators                  11

   Commodity prices                   12

   GDT results                        13

   Industry commentary                14

   Glossary                           16

                                           3
PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
GUEST FEATURE

    The growing appetite for
    New Zealand food products
                                                                 Food products from New Zealand are missing out on
                                                                 significant premiums in global markets, according
                                                                 to research by Lincoln University and the University
                                                                 of Florida.

                                                                 The research revealed New Zealand’s food exports
                                                                 were mostly unbranded commodities which entered the
                                                                 manufacturing or food service sectors.

                                                                 Food and beverage manufacturers are not taking
                                                                 advantage of the positive perception of the quality and
                                                                 safety of food products from New Zealand.

                                                                 The research from the University of Florida showed most
                                                                 western consumers view New Zealand food as the next
                                                                 best thing to their own local products.

                                                                 Unfortunately, the lack of branding and marketing means
                                                                 food and beverage manufacturers give away the potential
                                                                 to take advantage of how consumers see New Zealand’s
                                                                 food products.
    Dr Nic Lees
    Senior Lecturer – Agribusiness                               In Japan, USA and Spain, New Zealand was the second
    Management, Lincoln University                               most trusted source for fresh fruit and vegetables.

    Dr Nic Lees is Senior Lecturer in Agribusiness                 New Zealand has a unique environment
    Management at Lincoln University where he teaches
                                                                       that enables it to produce food
    agribusiness strategic management and food marketing.
                                                                     products with distinct flavours and
    Prior to coming to Lincoln he had over 20 years’
    experience in a variety of roles in agribusiness including            nutritional composition.
    senior management, consulting, international sales and
    marketing, and the commercialisation of agritechnology.      Consumers in the United States rated New Zealand beef
                                                                 a close second to local beef, while in the United Kingdom,
    Nic holds a Horticultural Science Degree with honours        New Zealand lamb was seen as just as good as local lamb.
    from Massey University and a Master of Business
    Administration with distinction from the University          While the growing preference for local food is a challenge
    of Canterbury. He has completed a PhD at Lincoln             for food and beverage manufacturers, there is also a
    University in marketing and supply chain management.         significant opportunity to use this positive view to capture
                                                                 greater value.
    He has an international reputation for research
    on improving the competitive advantage of food               When New Zealand products were branded, such as wine
    supply chains. Recent research has focused on the            and kiwifruit, they captured a significant premium.
    identification and marketing of New Zealand food
                                                                 The price per litre of New Zealand wine is second only
    exports in international markets
                                                                 to France, and kiwifruit exports are sold at a significant
    He has presented his research at international conferences   premium over Italian or Chilean products.
    in Europe, China, the United States and New Zealand. He
    has been published in international academic journals and    If New Zealand can replicate this with other food
    is also a regular media commentator.                         exports, then it can move away from the current focus on
                                                                 increasing the volume of agricultural products and focus
                                                                 instead on increasing value.

4    NZMP PERSPECTIVE October 2018
PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
New Zealand has a unique environment that enables                      characteristics, yet little research has been done on the
it to produce food products with distinct flavours and                 health impacts of this.
nutritional composition. The country has high sunshine
                                                                       Food marketed on health attributes command very high
hours, elevated UV light levels, moderate climate and
                                                                       premiums over commodity products. Manuka honey and
young soils. These all have a positive impact on what
                                                                       A2 milk are clear examples of this.
it produces.
                                                                       To capture these premiums, all of us in New Zealand need
No other country had this combination of environmental
                                                                       to invest significantly more in understanding the distinct
characteristics.                                                       characteristics of the country’s agricultural products, and
Despite this, there has been little research done on                   how food and beverage manufacturers communicate this
identifying the impacts of this on the flavour, texture and            to consumers.
health characteristics of New Zealand-produced food.                   This will take time and require collaboration between
For example, research has shown that New Zealand-                      food exporters, government, universities and research
grown avocados have unique nutritional qualities, with                 institutes. However, the opportunity exists now to make
double the amount of vitamin B6 and 20 percent more                    the most of the New Zealand’s positive reputation in the
folate than those grown in other countries.                            eyes of overseas consumers. Some food and beverage
                                                                       manufacturers are capturing value from New Zealand-
We also know that New Zealand grass fed beef and dairy                 labelled products but many consumers remain unaware
products have lower saturated fats and other nutritional               that their food originated in New Zealand.

 Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the opinion of the author, not those of Fonterra,
 and Fonterra is not responsible for any decisions taken in reliance on the same.                                                    5
PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
GLOBAL PRODUCTION

    Early season production in
    New Zealand stronger than last
    year. Production down in Australia
    and slowing in Europe
    To view a summary of year-on-year changes in production click here

     NEW ZEALAND                      AUSTRALIA                          EUROPEAN UNION                             UNITED STATES

     0       %                       +2%                                +3%                                        +1%
     Production change                Production change                  Production change                          Production change
     the 12 months                    the 12 months                      the 12 months                              the 12 months
     to August 2018                   to July 2018                       to July 2018                               to August 2018

    For the 12 months to             Production for the                Production for the                         Milk production for the
    August, milk production was      12 months to July was up          12 months to July was up                   12 months to August
    flat compared to the same        +2% compared to the same          +3% compared to the same                   increased by +1% compared
    period last year.                period the previous year.         period the previous year.                  to the same period last year.
    Total New Zealand milk           The likelihood of an El Niño      Growth for the month of                    US milk production was up
    production increased             developing remains at             July was predominantly                     +1% in August compared to
    +5% in August compared           50% which will continue to        driven by Germany, France                  the same period last year.
    to the same month last           pressure milk production          and Spain up +3%, +2%                      Hot and humid weather
    year although it is still        throughout the season.            and +4% respectively but                   conditions had the potential
    early in the season. This                                          weekly production figures                  to slow growth but August
                                     Australian milk production
    was driven by favourable                                           for Germany and France                     milk production remained
                                     decreased -4% in July
    weather conditions in                                              in August are showing                      around last year’s level. An
                                     compared to the same
    Taranaki, Central Districts,                                       negative growth year                       increase in cow numbers
                                     period last year. This is being
    Canterbury and Southland/                                          on year.                                   regardless of heavy
                                     driven by rising on-farm
    Otago. Some of this                                                                                           slaughter rates sets the US
                                     input prices, droughts across     EU milk production
    increase has been offset as                                                                                   up to meet expected annual
                                     parts of the country and          increased by less than
    a result of heavy rains in the                                                                                growth of +1%.
                                     cow cull rates increasing (up     +1% in July compared to
    Bay of Plenty.
                                     +14% in July, year-on-year).      the same period last year
                                                                       as conditions became
                                                                       more favourable.

                                                                          Sources: Data from Global Trade Information Services and from government and
                                                                       industry websites, including USDA, Eurostat, High Ground Dairy, Dairy Australia and
                                                                                                             Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand
6    NZMP PERSPECTIVE October 2018
PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
FONTERRA MILK COLLECTION

  FONTERRA NEW ZEALAND MILK COLLECTION 2018/2019 SEASON

                        100
VOLUME (M LITRES/DAY)

                        80

                        60

                        40

                        20
                                                                                                               2018/19
                                                                                                               2017/18
                         0
                              JUN   JUL   AUG   SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN       FEB   MAR   APR   MAY    2016/17

             NEW ZEALAND                               AUSTRALIAN
             COLLECTION                                COLLECTION

      +4%                                             -8%
             Increase for the season                   Decrease for the season from
             from 1 June to 31 August 2018             1 July to 31 August 2018

Fonterra’s early season                               Fonterra’s milk collection
milk collection across                                across Australia for the
New Zealand for the three                             two months to 31 August
months to 31 August                                   reached 17 million kgMS,
reached 127 million kgMS,                             down -8% on the same
around 8% of total                                    period last season.
season production.
                                                      Poor seasonal conditions
New Zealand collections in                            are driving up input costs
August reached 97 million                             resulting in increased
kgMS, +3% up on the same                              cow cull rates. The poor
month last season.                                    seasonal outlook and a very
                                                      competitive milk supply
These volumes are small
                                                      market will more than
in the context of the full
                                                      likely continue to impact
season, as is usual for this
                                                      milk supply during the 2019
time of the year.
                                                      financial year.

Sources: Fonterra Global Dairy Update, September 2018

                                                                                                                                    7
PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
GLOBAL EXPORTS

    Export growth from New Zealand
    and the US in July. European
    exports weakened in May
    To view a summary of year-on-year changes in exports click here

     NEW ZEALAND                    AUSTRALIA                         EUROPEAN UNION                             UNITED STATES

     -2%                           +5%                                +4%                                       +10%
     Export change                  Export change                     Export change                              Export change
     for the 12 months              for the 12 months                 for the 12 months                          for the 12 months
     to July 2018                   to July 2018                      to May 2018                                to July 2018

    Exports for the 12 months      Exports for the 12 months         Exports for the 12 months                 Exports for the 12 months
    to July were down -2%, or      to July were up +5%, or           to May were up +4%,                       to July were up +10%,
    -57,000 MT, on the previous    +33,000 MT, on the previous       or +220,000 MT, on the                    or +218,000 MT, on the
    comparable period. This        comparable period.                previous comparable period.               previous comparable period.
    continues to be driven                                           Continued upside in SMP
                                   Fluid and fresh dairy, and                                                  This increase was driven
    by lower volumes across                                          and infant formula remain
                                   infant formula continued                                                    by growth across the five
    WMP, AMF, cheese and                                             the primary drivers behind
                                   to make up the majority                                                     largest export categories,
    SMP, down a combined                                             European dairy export
                                   of growth in Australian                                                     SMP, lactose, cheese, whey
    -116,000 MT. Fluid and fresh                                     growth, up a combined
                                   exports, up a combined                                                      powder and WPC and WPI,
    dairy and infant formula                                         +222,000 MT.
                                   +45,000 MT.                                                                 up a combined 185,000 MT.
    continued strong growth,
                                                                     EU dairy exports decreased
    up +76,000 MT.                 Australian dairy exports                                                    US dairy exports increased
                                                                     by -6%, or -28,000 MT,
                                   increased +4%, or +2,000                                                    by +12%, or +20,000 MT, in
    Total New Zealand dairy                                          in May compared to the
                                   MT, in July compared to the                                                 July compared to the same
    exports increased +6%,                                           same period last year. This
                                   same period last year. This                                                 period last year. Growth
    or +17,000 MT, in July                                           was primarily driven by
                                   growth was due to upside in                                                 in SMP and lactose of a
    compared to the same                                             declines in fluid and fresh
                                   most categories, up +10,000                                                 combined +17,000 MT, was
    period last year. This                                           dairy and SMP, down a
                                   MT, offset by declines                                                      the primary driver behind
    increase is driven by WMP                                        combined -30,000 MT.
                                   in butter, SMP, cultured                                                    this increase.
    and butter, up a combined                                        This was partially offset by
                                   products, other powders
    +32,000 MT. However,                                             gains in infant formula, up
                                   and caseinate of a combined
    declines in SMP of -16,000                                       +6,000 MT.
                                   +8,000 MT.
    MT dampened this increase.

                                                                 Sources: Data from Global Trade Information Services, US Dairy Export Council, EU Milk
                                                                                   Market Observatory, Dairy Australia, High Ground Dairy and Eucolait
8    NZMP PERSPECTIVE October 2018
PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
GLOBAL IMPORTS

Imports in Asia show continued strong
demand. Middle East and Africa remain
flat while Latin America declines
To view a summary of year-on-year changes in imports click here

 LATIN AMERICA                     ASIA                               MIDDLE EAST                       CHINA                     RUSSIA
                                                                      & AFRICA

-1%                                +2% +4% +17% +5%
 Import change for                 Import change for                 Import change for                  Import change for         Import change for
 the 12 months to                  the 12 months to                  the 12 months to                   the 12 months to          the 12 months to
 May 2018                          May 2018                          May 2018                           March 2018                May 2018

Imports for the 12                Imports for the 12                Imports for the 12                Imports for the 12         Imports for the 12
months to May were                months to May were                months to May were                months to March were       months to May 2018
down -1%, or -25,000              up +2%, or +102,000               up +4%, or 148,000                up +17%, or +394,000       were up +5% or
MT, compared to                   MT, compared to                   MT, compared to                   MT, compared to the        +55,816 MT compared
the same period the               the same period                   the same period the               same period last year.     to the same period
previous year. This               the previous year.                previous year. The                Strong demand out          the previous year.
decline was primarily             Continued growth                  increase is driven                of China continued
                                                                                                                                 This was mainly
driven by WMP                     in WMP and cheese                 by growth in SMP,                 with imports across
                                                                                                                                 driven by an increase
and AMF, down a                   of +96,000 MT were                cheese and fluid                  all key categories
                                                                                                                                 in fluid and fresh
combined -88,000                  the primary drivers of            and fresh dairy,                  up for the period.
                                                                                                                                 dairy and cultured
MT. An increase                   this upside.                      up a combined                     Infant formula, WMP
                                                                                                                                 products of +43% and
in SMP and whey                                                     +125,000 MT.                      and SMP imports
                                  Asia (excluding China)                                                                         +21% respectively.
powder of +62,000                                                                                     added a combined
                                  dairy import volumes¹             Middle East and
MT offset some of                                                                                     +220,000 MT of             Russia import volumes
                                  increased +3%, or                 Africa dairy import
the decline.                                                                                          additional volumes.        were up +25% or
                                  +12,000 MT, in May                volumes¹ were mostly
                                                                                                                                 +25,405 MT for May
Latin American dairy              compared to the                   flat in May compared              China dairy import
                                                                                                                                 2018 compared to the
import volumes¹                   same period last year.            to the same period                volumes² increased
                                                                                                                                 same month last year.
decreased -5%, or                 Growth in fluid and               last year. This was               +3%, or +7,000 MT,
-8,000 MT, in May                 fresh dairy and SMP               driven by strong                  in March compared
compared to the                   of +22,000 MT drove               growth in WMP of                  to the same period
same period last                  the increase. A decline           +10,000 MT, offset                last year. This was
year. This decrease               in whey powder of                 by declines in fluid              driven by a combined
was driven by cheese,             -7,000 MT partially               and fresh dairy of                +14,000 MT, or +22%,
SMP and AMF down                  dampened gains.                   -12,000 MT.                       growth in fluid and
-13%, or -12,000 MT.                                                                                  fresh dairy, butter and
This was partially                                                                                    lactose categories.
offset by gains in                                                                                    Declines in WMP of
WMP and lactose,                                                                                      -6,000 MT partially
up +3,000 MT.                                                                                         offset this growth.

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported import data.
2 China has suspended trade data, citing system technical issues. Based on exports to China, we estimate June volumes grew
15% compared to the previous comparable period.
Sources: Data from Global Trade Information Services; EU Milk Market Observatory; FAO; Highground Trading Group
                                                                                                                                                         9
PERSPECTIVE October 2018 - The latest insights in global dairy markets Your regular global overview of the dairy industry along with trends in ...
TRACKING THE GLOBAL DAIRY MARKET

     Global Dairy Market           PRODUCTION
     The charts on the right                                1000

     illustrate the year-on-year
                                                            800
     changes in imports, exports

                                   LIQUID MILK (M LITRES)
     and production for a range
                                                            600
     of countries that are
     important players in global
                                                            400
     dairy trade.
     The absolute size of                                   200
     the bars represents the
     change in imports, exports                                   0
     or production, relative
     to the same period the                                 -200
                                                                       SEP ‘17    OCT ‘17    NOV ‘17   DEC ‘17   JAN ‘18   FEB ‘18   MAR ‘18    APR ‘18    MAY ‘18    JUN ‘18   JUL ‘18    AUG ‘18
     previous year.
                                                                           NEW ZEALAND                    EU27              UNITED STATES                 AUSTRALIA                       AVERAGE
     Averages are shown where
                                   NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to July; New Zealand and US to August.
     data is complete for the
     regions presented.
                                   EXPORTS
     For further information
                                                            120
     click here

                                                            90

                                                            60
                                   MT (000s)

                                                             30

                                                             0

                                                            -30

                                                            -60
                                                                      AUG ‘17    SEP ‘17    OCT ‘17    NOV ‘17   DEC ‘17   JAN ‘18   FEB ‘18   MAR ‘18    APR ‘18    MAY ‘18 JUN ‘18       JUL ‘18

                                                                          NEW ZEALAND                   EU27               UNITED STATES                  AUSTRALIA                       AVERAGE

                                   NOTE: Data for EU to May; New Zealand, US and Australia to July.

                                   IMPORTS
                                                            160

                                                            120

                                                            80
                                   MT (000s)

                                                             40

                                                             0

                                                            -40

                                                            -80
                                                                      JUN ‘17    JUL ‘17    AUG ‘17    SEP ‘17   OCT ‘17   NOV ‘17   DEC ‘17   JAN ‘18    FEB ‘18    MAR ‘18    APR ‘18    MAY ‘18

                                                                          ASIA         CHINA            MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA             LATIN AMERICA               RUSSIA               AVERAGE

                                   NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East and Africa and Latin America to May; estimates for China for April and May.

                                                                                                        Source: Government milk production statistics/GTIS trade data/Fonterra analysis
10    NZMP PERSPECTIVE October 2018
GLOBAL INDICATORS

              Food Price
FAO Food Price Index averaged 199.1 points in August 2018, unchanged from previous month
and down -5.4% on the corresponding month last year. The Dairy Price Index averaged 196.2
points in August 2018, down -1.5% on previous month. International price quotations of butter,
skim milk powder and whole milk powder fell for a second month, whilst cheese rebounded
marginally. This downward trend reflects a seasonal decrease in market activities, as well
as uncertainty surrounding future export availability: Droughts could impede production in
Europe and Australia whilst New Zealand forecasts for the season have lifted.
Source: FAO

              Economic
Composite leading indicators (CLIs) are pointing towards easing growth in the
OECD area overall. Easing growth momentum is anticipated in large European
countries including the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy. Stable growth
momentum is forecast for the United States, Canada and Japan. Among major
emerging economies, growth is gaining momentum in China (industrial sector)
and India, however, easing of growth is anticipated in Brazil and Russia.
Source: OECD

              Consumer
The Argentinian peso weakened sharply against the dollar in late August. Economist Intelligence
Unit forecasts a lengthening recession and deep contraction for GDP, of -2.2%, in 2018, with very
weak growth in 2019, of +0.3%. Turkey is facing a currency crisis. Revised short-term real GDP
growth outlook for 2018 is +3.1% (from +4%) and for 2019 to +1% (from +4.6%). South Africa’s real
GDP growth for 2018 was also subject to downward revisions, now +0.9% (from +1.5%) due to
domestic and global headwinds. Growth should rebound to +1.8% in 2019. The risk of a full-blown
emerging-market crisis has been revised down, now a moderate 21‑30% likelihood of the event
occurring in the next two years, as few countries share the characteristics of Argentina and Turkey.
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

              Weather
A heatwave in the Northern Hemisphere and drought in Australia has led to feed costs
soaring. In the New Zealand Herald, Rabobank analyst Emma Higgins commented this
is having a big impact on feed costs. Straw wheat in England, which usually sells at £35/
tonne, is now going for closer to £100/tonne. Increases in prices are also occurring in the
German, French and Australian markets. Lifting feed costs are impacting margins and
already production is starting to slow. Weather in New Zealand has been good and a
slight increase in production is anticipated.
Sources: New Zealand Herald, Scoop, Climate Prediction Centre, World Agricultural Weather Highlights USDA oCOE

                                                                                                                                     11
COMMODITY PRICES

     WMP
      $4000                                                                                                                           September prices changes for WMP were mixed. Dutch
                                                                                                                                      Dairy Board prices rose +2.4% to USD 3,290/MT. GDT prices
      $3500                                                                                                                           decreased -5.0% to USD 2,851/MT. USDA Oceania prices
                                                                                                                                      were not available at time of update.
      $3000
                                                                                                                                      Forecasts and futures were mixed. NZX Futures’ average
      $2500                                                                                                                           price during the six month forecast period decreased -2.5%
                                                                                                                                      to USD 2,799/MT Rabobank Oceania predicted to remained
      $2000
                                                                                                                                      flat in price at 3,100/MT , while Informa Oceania predicts an
      $1500                                                                                                                           increase of +1.0% go USD 3,106/MT.
                Mar 18

                         Apr 18

                                  May 18

                                           Jun 18

                                                    Jul 18

                                                             Aug 18

                                                                                                                             Mar 19
                                                                      Sep 18

                                                                               Oct 18

                                                                                        Nov 18

                                                                                                  Dec 18

                                                                                                           Jan 19

                                                                                                                    Feb 19
     SMP
      $4000
                                                                                                                                      SMP price changes for September were all mostly positive,
      $3500                                                                                                                           with GDT prices increasing +2.2% to USD 2,027/MT, Dutch
                                                                                                                                      Dairy Board also increased by +3.8% to USD 1.739/MT and
      $3000                                                                                                                           USDA NASS also up +4.5% to USD 1,870/MT.

      $2500                                                                                                                           USDA Oceania prices were not available at time of update.

                                                                                                                                      Forecast/futures are pricing are similar to the current market
      $2000
                                                                                                                                      with prices between USD 2,000/MT and USD 2,174/MT.
      $1500
                Mar 18

                         Apr 18

                                  May 18

                                           Jun 18

                                                    Jul 18

                                                             Aug 18

                                                                      Sep 18

                                                                               Oct 18

                                                                                         Nov 18

                                                                                                  Dec 18

                                                                                                           Jan 19

                                                                                                                             Mar 19
                                                                                                                    Feb 19

     BUTTER
                                                                                                                                      Butter prices were mostly negative for September. GDT
      $6000
                                                                                                                                      prices decreased -7.0% to USD 4,275/MT, Dutch Dairy
      $5500
                                                                                                                                      Board down -1.2% to USD 6,263/MT and CME Spot
      $5000
                                                                                                                                      decreased -2.5% to USD 4,946/MT. USDA Oceania prices
      $4500
                                                                                                                                      were not available at time of update.
      $4000
      $3500                                                                                                                           Average futures and forecasts for October to March 2019
      $3000                                                                                                                           are relatively stable with CME Futures, Informa Oceania,
      $2500                                                                                                                           NZX Futures, Rabobank Oceania average prices over the
      $2000                                                                                                                           6 months at USD 5,041/MT, USD 3,989/MT, USD 5,495 and
      $1500
                                                                                                                                      USD 5,300/MT respectively.
                Mar 18

                         Apr 18

                                  May 18

                                           Jun 18

                                                    Jul 18

                                                             Aug 18

                                                                      Sep 18

                                                                               Oct 18

                                                                                         Nov 18

                                                                                                  Dec 18

                                                                                                           Jan 19

                                                                                                                             Mar 19
                                                                                                                    Feb 19

     CHEESE
      $8500                                                                                                                           Cheddar cheese prices stayed flat during September
      $7500
                                                                                                                                      with GDT at 3,631/MT and CME spot at 3,613/MT. USDA
                                                                                                                                      Oceania and EU commission prices were not available at
      $6500
                                                                                                                                      time of update.
      $5500
                                                                                                                                      Cheese Futures and forecasts pricing are mixed. CME
      $4500
                                                                                                                                      Futures prices decreased for the six months from October
      $3500                                                                                                                           to March 2019, down -1.6% to an average price of USD
      $2500                                                                                                                           3.593/MT. Informa Oceania averages USD 3,498/MT and
      $1 50 0                                                                                                                         Rabobank averages USD 3,600/MT.
            Mar 18

                         Apr 18

                                  May 18

                                           Jun 18

                                                    Jul 18

                                                             Aug 18

                                                                      Sep 18

                                                                               Oct 18

                                                                                        Nov 18

                                                                                                  Dec 18

                                                                                                           Jan 19

                                                                                                                             Mar 19
                                                                                                                    Feb 19

      Actuals                                                                                                                         Forecasts
         GDT Fonterra                          Dutch Dairy Board                        USDA Oceania                                     NZX Futures             CME Futures

         USDA NASS                             CME Spot                                 EU Commission                                    Rabobank Oceania        Informa Oceania

                                                                                                                                                    Source: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/
12   NZMP PERSPECTIVE October 2018
GDT RESULTS

TRADING EVENT 220

   -1.6                   %
                                                                usd       2,959 38.4                                             000/mt

   Change in Fonterra’s weighted average                        Fonterra’s weighted average                Fonterra product quantity
   product price from previous event                            product price (USD/MT)                     sold on GDT

                WMP                                             AMF                               SMP                         BUTTER

         -1.9%                                         -0.4%                                  -1.2%                     -0.0%
             $2,768                                           $5,294                           $1,989                        $4,270

       RENNET CASEIN                                             BMP                           CHEDDAR                       LACTOSE

        +1.8%                                                Not offered
                                                             at this event
                                                                                          -3.5%                             Not offered
                                                                                                                            at this event
             $5,421                                                                            $3,503

GDT SALES BY DESTINATION
TRADING EVENT 220                                                                             Latest Auction           Financial Year to Date

     North Asia (including China)            Latin America

     South East Asia                         Other
                                                                                                38,438                         140,997
     Middle East and Africa
                                                                                                 MT                              MT

The next trading event will be held on 2 October 2018.
Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

GDT PRICE INDEX
TRADING EVENT 220

The New Zealand dollar fell
                                               PRICE INDEX

over the month of August
after the Reserve Bank New
Zealand signalled a lower-
for-longer stance on interest
rate policy. US-China trade
war talk presents a key risk
event during September.
                                                                 GDT PRICE INDEX   NZD/USD SPOT RATE

Source: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/
                                                                                                                                                13
INDUSTRY COMMENTARY

     USDA, Dairy Outlook
     Published 18 September 2018

     Recent developments                                                This is in part a trade mitigation package to assist farmers
                                                                        adversely affected by recent trade actions of foreign
     Milk production for July 2018 increased just +0.4% on July 2017.   countries and includes revenue protection programmes and
     Milk cow numbers are down 800 and milk per cow increased           government contracts for liquid milk, amongst other things.
     less than +0.01% compared to same month last year. Low
     growth in milk production is in part due to strengthening feed     Dairy forecasts for 2018
     prices and relatively low milk prices, compounded by heat
                                                                        Milk production forecast is 217.8 billion pounds (98.8mMT),
     stress with higher than average temperatures in June and July.
                                                                        down -0.1 billion since last month. Annual forecast milking
     National Dairy Products Sales Report (NDPSR) showed                herd for 2018 has been lowered to 9.4 million head, down
     price increases across the board, particularly for cheddar         -5,000 and milk-per-cow forecast is unchanged.
     cheese. U.S. domestic prices high skim-solids products have
                                                                        Import forecast (on a milk-fat basis) has been raised to 6.2
     been converging with foreign export prices in recent months.
                                                                        billion pounds for the year (2.8mMT), +0.2 billion more than
     July 2018 exports on a milk-fat basis were 883 million             last month’s forecast, because of higher butter and cheese
     pounds, up compared to year ago but down compared to               imports in July. Export forecast has been decreased slightly
     last month. Exports on a skim-solids basis total 3.503 billion     to 10.3 billion (4.7mMT). Domestic use forecast on a milk-
     pounds, up compared to year ago but down on last month.            fat basis has been raised again, up +0.2 billion pounds to
     Tariffs contributed to decrease of cheese exports to Mexico        212.6 billion (96.4mMT).
     and whey exports to China. Cheese exports to Mexico fell
                                                                        Import forecast (on a skim-solids basis) has been raised
     -12 million pounds and total decline was -15 million pounds.
                                                                        slightly to 5.7 billion pounds (2.6mMT), with higher expected
     Whey product exports to China declined -8 million pounds
                                                                        imports of cheese and other products. Export forecast
     but declined -14 million pounds overall.
                                                                        has been reduced to 44.7 billion pounds (20.3mMT), -0.7
     Imports on a milk-fat basis were 574 million pounds, slightly      billion pounds lower than last forecast. This was driven by
     up compared to year ago and previous month. Imports on a           a decline in whey product exports which are not expected
     skim-solids basis, were 504 million pounds, down compared          to recover. Higher domestic use is forecast at 178.6 billion
     to July 2017 but a slight increase month on month. Cheese          pounds (81mMT), up +0.2 billion pounds, which will make
     and butter imports were high, with butter the highest since        up for some but not all the lost exports, leading to an
     May of 2004.                                                       increased ending stocks forecast up +0.5 billion pounds.
     USDA has recently announced several programmes and                 Dairy price forecasts for 2018 have been raised, based on
     legislations targeted at supporting domestic dairy industry.       recent movements with the exception of butter.

     Dairy forecasts for 2019
     Milk production is projected at 221.0 billion pounds               Imports on a skim-solids basis are forecast slightly higher
     (100.2mMT) for the year, an increase of 0.1 billion since last     at 5.6 billion pounds. Exports are down, at 44.1 billion
     forecast and driven by forecasts of higher milk price and          pounds. Continuing strength in the economy means
     lower feed prices. Annual forecast milk cow numbers for            domestic use is now forecast at 181.5 billion pounds. Ending
     2018 are expected to grow slightly to 9.4 million and milk-        stocks are now forecast at 10.8 billion pounds, +0.3 billion
     per-cow forecast is unchanged.                                     more than forecast last month.
     On a milk-fat basis, forecast for imports is 6.0 billion           Dry whey and NDM prices have been raised as tight supply
     pounds for 2019, +0.4 billion up as strength in butter and         and current price strength are expected to continue into
     cheese imports is expected to continue. Export forecast has        2019. Cheese prices are unchanged and butter has been
     been lowered to 9.8 billion pounds, -0.1 billion less than last    lowered slightly.
     month. Ending stocks are unchanged at 12.5 billion pounds.
     Domestic use raised again to 216.9 billion pounds, +0.3
     billion pounds higher than last month.
                                                                                                                          Sources: USDA

14    NZMP PERSPECTIVE October 2018
INDUSTRY COMMENTARY

Blimling, Forecast Update
Published 5 September 2018

Blimling notes that with Halloween and Christmas coming       Cheese prices should be supported by strong domestic
up, marketers are encouraging holiday demand with lots        demand and limited excess milk but could be derailed by
of promotions. Chunk cheese promotions usually rise 10%       aggressive promotional activity. Butter prices are expected
percent between September and October, and another            to rise seasonally with increasing demand but ample
10% in November. Butter demand looks strong with              inventories and lots of cream limiting upside. NDM/SMP
promotional growth yet to come in Thanksgiving week           prices slowly recover with stronger demand tempered by
(promotions increased near threefold last Thanksgiving        ample inventories and buyer price sensitivity. In the whey
week). Weak pricing could spur greater promotional activity   market, strong demand and tight supply should support
and a surge in sales.                                         prices in the near term, but new capacity and market
                                                              dynamics should alleviate pressure.

Sources: Blimling

                                                                                                                            15
GLOSSARY

         Fonterra draws the information in this update from a variety
         of principally external sources listed below. Also included are
         defined acronyms for better understanding.

                AMF Anhydrous Milk Fat                     IMF International Monetary Fund

                BMP Butter Milk Powder                     Informa Informa Economics Inc., Dairy
                                                           Group, Global Dairy Market Report
                CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange
                                                           LME Liquid Milk Equivalent
                DDB Dutch Dairy Board
                                                           MAT Moving Annual Total (this is data
                EIU Economist Intelligence Unit            averaged across the 12 month period)
                FAO United Nations Food and                MEA Middle East and Africa
                Agriculture Organisation
                                                           NDM Non-fat Dry Milk
                Farmgate Milk Price The price for
                                                           NZX NZ Stock Exchange
                milk supplied in New Zealand to
                Fonterra by farmer shareholders            OECD Organisation for Economic
                                                           Co‑operation and Development
                Fluid and Fresh Dairy The Fonterra
                grouping of fluid milk products (skim      Q[1] [First] Quarter
                milk, whole milk and cream pasteurised
                                                           Reference Products The dairy products
                or UHT processed), concentrated
                                                           used in the calculation of the Farmgate
                milk products (evaporated milk and
                                                           Milk Price, which are currently WMP,
                sweetened condensed milk) and yoghurt
                                                           SMP, BMP, butter and AMF
                FTA Free Trade Agreement                   SEA South East Asia
                GDI Global Dairy Intelligence group,       Season New Zealand: A period of
                Fonterra Cooperative Group Limited.        12 months to 31 May in each year.
                GDI provides insights to Fonterra          Australia: A period of 12 months
                management based on a model of the         to 30 June in each year
                global dairy market developed by GDI
                and populated with publicly available      SMP Skim Milk Powder
                data. The model outputs referenced         TE GDT Trading Event
                in this report do not reflect Fonterra’s
                non-public production or sales data        USDA NASS US Department of
                                                           Agriculture National Agricultural
                GDP Gross Domestic Product                 Statistics Service
                GDT Global Dairy Trade auction platform    USDA Oceania US Department of
                                                           Agriculture Agricultural marketing
                GDT Price Index is an index that
                                                           service price series for specific
                provides a measure of the weighted
                                                           products in the Oceania region
                average percentage change in the
                movement in price of all products          WMP Whole Milk Powder
                sold on GDT. This provides a simple
                                                           YOY Year-on-year
                measure of changes in dairy price
                between trading events                     YTD Year to date

16   NZMP PERSPECTIVE October 2018
REFERENCES

Tracking the global dairy market Production, Export
and Import charts
The production, export and import charts illustrate year-on-year changes in production,
exports and imports for a range of countries that are important players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of the bars represents the change in production, exports or imports
compared to the same month the previous year. The portion of the bar below zero represents
a year-on-year decrease and the portion above the line shows the year increase for that
country. Where countries are not shown this is likely due to the data not yet being available.

Weather Source (Page reference – 11)
Comments on weather are obtained from various government weather sites as well as
independent reports including Martell Crop Projections. Global milk production data is
sourced from government and industry websites including US Department of Agriculture
(USDA), EuroStat, Dairy Australia, Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ)
and others.

                                                                                                              17
Important note: The information and commentary contained in this ‘Perspective from NZMP’ is based on publicly available official government statistics;
industry association reports; other published industry reports together with data and insights developed by Fonterra’s Global Dairy Intelligence group
(‘GDI’). These sources are identified as appropriate in this ‘Perspective from NZMP’. GDI insights and data are derived from a global dairy market model
populated by publicly available data. The model inputs and outputs do not reflect Fonterra’s non-public production, pricing or sales data. Fonterra
Co-operative Group Limited and its group members involved in the manufacture or sale of NZMP branded products (‘Fonterra’) has provided this
‘Perspective from NZMP’ for informational purposes only. It does not constitute recommendations or advice for the purposes of making financial decisions
regarding trading in dairy products or commodities, or dealing in financial instruments relating to dairy commodities. Although every effort is made to
ensure the accuracy of reproducing and interpreting such information, no warranty or representation of such is made and Fonterra shall have no liability
in respect of any reliance placed on such information in the formulation of any business decision.
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