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International Coordination Office (ICO)                  Find more information at
                for Polar Prediction                                     www.polarprediction.net

                PolarPredictNews
 Issue #15#14
Newsletter
 July 2020
Apr. 2020

                                              Sea ice scientists Stefanie Arndt (left) and Robert
                                              Ricker (right) during their weekly observational
                                              walk across the Arctic sea-ice floe to measure
                                              sea-ice thickness with the electromagnetic
                                              sensor (EM) sled and snow depth with the
                                              MagnaProbe during Leg 3 of the MOSAiC
                                              expedition where more than 600 international
                                              scientists study the central Arctic conditions
                                              during an entire year. The sled (to the very right
                                              in photo) measures the distance between the
                                              snow surface and the underlying ice/water
                                              interface, which is the total thickness of both the
                                              sea ice and snow. Subtracting the additionally
                                              measured snow depth with the MagnaProbe
                                              allows to calculate the actual sea-ice thickness
                                              (photo: Saga Svavarsdóttir/Alfred Wegener
                                              Institute).

                                                                                                    1
POLARPREDICTNEWS - POLAR PREDICTION PROJECT
E d ito ria l

                              International Coordination Office (ICO)                       Find more information at   16
                                                                                                                        p. 33
                                                                                                                                  This Year A Virtual AGU Fall
                                                                                                                                  Meeting
                                                                                                                                  by Kirstin Werner
                                                                                                                                                                              Dear Colleagues,

                                                                                                                                                                              It is time to briefly pause and celebrate the
                              for Polar Prediction                                          www.polarprediction.net
                                                                                                                                                                              publication of the 15th issue of PolarPredictNews.
                                                                                                                                                                              Launched in autumn 2016, Kirstin Werner and

                                                   Content                                                             17
                                                                                                                        p. 34
                                                                                                                                  2021 Arctic Frontiers – Building
                                                                                                                                  Bridges on Arctic Weather and
                                                                                                                                  Climate Prediction
                                                                                                                                                                              her team managed to publish one issue about
                                                                                                                                                                              every 3.5 months. Starting in October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                              as an 8-pager, PolarPredicNews has grown

    01         This Year is Difficult to Predict
               by Kirstin Werner
                                                                                                                                  by Kirstin Werner                           continuously in length and quality. Essentially, I
                                                                                                                                                                              consider PolarPredictNews one of the key legacy

                                                             09
    p. 5–10                                                                                                                                                                   elements that will provide an overview of the

                                                                                                                       18
                                                                        Improving Weather, Water, Ice                             Tenth International Workshop on             accomplishments of PPP and YOPP. And it will
                                                                        and Climate Information in the                            Sea Ice Modelling, Assimilation,            do so, in a very accessible and entertaining way
                                                              p. 22     Canadian Arctic                                 p. 35     Observations, Predictions and               (see, for example, the watercolour drawings by

    02         Towards Improved Forecasts in
               Northern Europe
               by Jonny Day and Gabriele Arduini
                                                                        New YOPP-endorsed project
                                                                                                                                  Verification
                                                                                                                                  by the International Ice Charting Working
                                                                                                                                  Group
                                                                                                                                                                              Amy Macfarlane that are spread throughout this
                                                                                                                                                                              whole 15th issue).

                                                             10
    p. 11–13
                                                                        YOPP Endorsement Open                                                                                 This latest issue also highlights exciting recent

                                                                                                                       19
                                                                        until 2021                                                NEW PUBLICATIONS                            scientific progress. For example, there is a report
                                                              p. 23                                                               Qizhen Sun et al.                           describing improvements in snow modelling
                                                                                                                                  Jun Inoue                                   that could enhance predictive capacity in polar

    03
                                                                                                                       p. 36-37
             Combining Modeling and                                                                                               Penny Wagner et al.                         regions and beyond. I am quite optimistic that
             Observations for Improved                                                                                                                                        this work will become a PPP/YOPP success story
    p. 14–15 Sea-Ice Predictions
               by Lars Nerger                                 11        Two New Contributions to Polar
                                                                        Prediction Matters
                                                             p. 24-25 Risk and Reward                                  20         YOPP-endorsed! – DACAPO-PESO
                                                                                                                                  project
                                                                                                                                                                              when it comes to going from research to better
                                                                                                                                                                              predictions and advanced services.

                                                                      Ice and Weather Forecast Software on             p. 38-40 Interview with Project PI Patric Seifert      Furthermore, I would like to highlight two special
                                                                      board Meachat Vessels                                                                                   issues. The one on Antarctic Meteorology and

    04         Improving Weather Forecasts in
               the Arctic
                                                                                                                       21         Upcoming Events
                                                                                                                                                                              Climate: Past, Present and Future presents
                                                                                                                                                                              latest findings from expanded and ongoing
    p. 16–17 by Anna Kathinka Dalland Evans
                                                              12        The IcePod – Three New
                                                                        Bonus Episodes
                                                             p. 28-29 by Kirstin Werner and
                                                                                                                         p. 41
                                                                                                                                  Online and In-Person Meetings               research efforts in Antarctic meteorology,
                                                                                                                                                                              weather prediction, climate variability and climate
                                                                                                                                                                              change. The special issue entitled Societal Value

    05
                                                                      Sara Pasqualetto                                                                                        of Improved Forecasting, published in Polar
               Third Coordinated Sea-Ice Fore-                                                                                                                                Geography, compiles a range of papers detailing
               cast Experiment in the                                                                                                                                         work that has been undertaken in conjunction
     p. 18     Southern Ocean                                                                                                  The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is a
                                                                                                                                                                              with the PPP’s Societal and Economic Research

                                                              13
               by François Massonnet                                    YOPP Sea Ice Experts: Farewell                        major international activity that has been
                                                                                                                                                                              and Applications (PPP-SERA) Task Team.
                                                                        and Welcome                                              initiated by the World Meteorological
                                                              p. 30     by Kirstin Werner and Helge Goessling                 Organization as a key component of the
                                                                                                                                                                              Finally, you will also find an update on COVID-19
                                                                                                                                      Polar Prediction Project (PPP).
                                                                                                                                                                              has impacted PPP and YOPP. Looking into the

    06
                                                                                                                                  The overarching goal of YOPP is to
               Background Story – Tell it with a                                                                                                                              future, it is very likely that most of the activities
                                                                                                                               significatnly advance our environmental
               Comic                                                                                                                                                          planned for 2020 and 2021 will be held online.

                                                             14
     p. 19                                                              Sharing Geoscience Online –                         prediction capabilities for the polar regions
               by Sara Pasqualetto                                                                                                                                            In fact, it may very well be the case that the
                                                                                                                                               and beyond.
                                                                        Joint YOPP-APPLICATE Session                                                                          next and final onsite meetings of the YOPP
                                                                                                                            As an internationally coordinated period of
                                                               p. 31    at EGU2020                                                                                               Consolidation Phase will the Polar Prediction
                                                                                                                             intensive observing, modelling, prediction,

    07
                                                                        by Kirstin Werner                                                                                                 School in Abisko (March 2022) and the
               Antarctic Meteorology                                                                                           verfication, user-engagement, and
                                                                                                                                                                                              YOPP Final Summit in Montreal (May
               and Climate Special                                                                                         education activities which involves va-
                                                                                                                                                                                               2022). However, this should not
     p. 20     Issue                                                                                                       rious stakeholders, YOPP contributes
                                                                                                                                                                                                 prevent us from doing exciting

                                                             15
               by Jenny Lin                                             YOPP at APECS Workshop                                                to the
                                                                                                                                                                                                  research.
                                                                        “Antarctic Science: Global                         knowledge base needed to mana-

    08                                                                  Connections”                                        ge the opportunities and risks that
               Special Issue on the Societal                  p. 32                                                                                                                            		            Happy reading,
                                                                        by Clare Eyars                                                     come with
               Value of Improving Forecasting                                                                                        polar climate change.
                                                                                                                                                                                               		            Thomas Jung
     p. 21     by Daniela Liggett
                                                                                                                                                                                             photo: Martina Buchholz/
                                                                                                                                                                                            Alfred Wegener Institute

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POLARPREDICTNEWS - POLAR PREDICTION PROJECT
FEATURED IN THIS ISSUE:                                                                                                        01
    Watercolour Drawings from MOSAiC Leg 3                                                                                         This Year is Difficult to Predict
    by Amy Macfarlane, WSL Institute for Snow and          It‘s difficult to give gifts whilst onboard as we                       by Kirstin Werner, Alfred Wegener Institute and                systems enabling nice and sunny conditions.
    Avalanche Research, Switzerland                        exhausted the shop’s chocolate and sweets supply                        International Coordination Office for                          However, “the current weather in Germany
                                                           after a few weeks, I found myself often drawing                         Polar Prediction                                               resembles more of a typical mid-European summer”,
    Good practice on board Polarstern is for the           small birthday cards to give a personal gift to                                                                                        says Majewski, “with more instability due to rapidly
    science team to leave an entry in Polarstern’s         my friends. When we started the journey back                            The World Meteorological Organization is                       moving short-term low-pressure areas over Europe,
    guestbook after each expedition leg. For leg 3 of      to Svalbard I offered to make the expedition‘s                          concerned about the decrease of airborne                       allowing at maximum some three to four days of
    the MOSAiC campaign, Amy Macfarlane, PhD               guestbook entry. So many unique events had                              atmospheric observations due to the suspension                 sunny weather before chilly temperatures are back.”
    student at the Snow and Avalanche Research             happened over the leg, it was extremely easy to                         of commercial air traffic since mid-March. The                 In Germany, this can be felt in particular at the
    Institute in Switzerland, prepared a watercolour       come up with ideas to incorporate each colleague                        German Weather Service starts using additional                 coasts, for example close to the North Sea.
    collage that captured many of the events that          into the drawing either with their work or expedition                   data from radiosondes’ sinking to the ground.
    happened during the 5-month leg and each team          hobbies. I could have added to this collage for a long                  While many of the research campaigns planned                   Missing an Historic Event while MOSAiC
    member either with their work or expedition            time but after 5 months(!) the leg came to an end as                    for this and the coming season in the Arctic                   Continues
    hobbies.                                               we saw Svalbard.                                                        and Antarctic were cancelled and others are                    Close to the North Sea is home for Stefanie Arndt,
                                                                                                                                   postponed, the one-year ice drift MOSAiC goes                  sea-ice scientist at the German Alfred Wegener
    After starting a PhD at the Snow and Avalanche         The same evening, due to a last-minute drop out, I                      on. How does the COVID-19 pandemic affect the                  Institute (AWI). After 145 days being away from
    Research Institute in Switzerland, I found myself      was invited to stay for leg 4. I found myself heading                   polar prediction community?                                    Bremerhaven, Arndt returned to Germany only four
    packing to join MOSAiC leg 3. As I prepared for        back to the Arctic. A 3-month trip now turning into                                                                                    weeks ago. Together with more than one hundred
    what was to                                                                               8 months. and I                      There are years when the weather can be forecast               German and international people, she spent the
    be a 3- month                                                                             couldn‘t be more                     more easily than in other years. “The COVID-19                 time when the pandemic peaked in Europe in the
    expedition,                                                                               grateful for the                     year is one with the summer being more difficult               central Arctic aboard the German research vessel
    my flat mates                                                                             thoughtful gift of                   to predict than for example last year’s summer”,               Polarstern. “While I definitely missed what can only
    gifted me with                                                                            watercolour paints                   says Detlev Majewski, head of the German                       be considered an historic event with entirely empty
    watercolour paints                                                                        and paintbrushes                     Meteorological Service’s department Meteorological             streets and people in Germany panic buying pasta
    and paintbrushes                                                                          that I will take back                Analysis and Numerical Modeling. In March, when                and toilet paper, the pandemic had a huge impact
    for my time                                                                               to the ice with me                   the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe forced people               to MOSAiC. Instead of three, I have now spent
    away. During                                                                              to keep me settled                   to move their entire lives to home, the weather was            five months in total away from home, and for some
    eventful and                                                                              on this (sometimes                   still dominated by longer-term stable high-pressure
    demanding times                                                                           quite wild)
    onboard, when                                                                             adventure.
    ice dynamics
    destroyed the
    runway and
    limited handover
                                                                       photo: Delphin Ruché
    plans, working in -40 degree temperatures on the
    ice and hearing about family and friends at home in
    quarantine, I turned to drawing.

    My work on MOSAiC is researching the snow
    on the sea ice and understanding how it changes
    throughout the seasons both physically and
    chemically. I have no installations on the ice,
    therefore the number of times I put on my thick
    snow boots and walked down the gangway directly
    correlated to the quantity and value of the data.
    Every evening I was physically exhausted from
    pulling a sledge over the ice and when I finished
                                                          Watercolour cartoons by Amy Macfarlane are spread over the entire
    with lab work and data entry I often got out my       PolarPredictNews #15 newsletter. Find the drawing as a whole in the
    watercolours as it‘s an easy task with aching         middle of the issue – you may want to print it as a poster to decorate   Stefanie Arndt and her colleague work on the ice during MOSAiC leg 3 (photo: Steven Fons/Alfred Wegener Institute).
    muscles.                                              your (home) office walls.

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POLARPREDICTNEWS - POLAR PREDICTION PROJECT
time, there was a huge uncertainty amongst the                    says Rex in the German podcast ‘Arctic Drift – Das
    team about how and when the next exchange of the                  Audiologbuch’.
    expedition legs would happen. At the same time, at
    least I myself have never worried about anything                  Drastic Decrease in Airborne Atmospheric
    but my family’s health.” Eventually, the MOSAiC                   Observations
    project board and logistic team found a good                      One huge impact of COVID-19 the World
    solution for the teams’ exchange. After a number                  Meteorological Organization has been concerned
    of international requests and negotiations, the two               about was the number of weather observations
    German research vessels RV Maria S. Merian and                    going down due to the drastic decrease in flight
    RV Sonne were finally able to assist in swapping                  traffic. “Overall, the decrease in the number of
    the science teams, crews and captains. Participants               commercial flights has resulted in a reduction of in
    of leg 4 had to stay quarantined in a hotel in                    certain regions up to ninety percent in observations
    Bremerhaven for two weeks in May before boarding of meteorological measurements from aircraft
    the vessels at Bremerhaven port. In a Svalbard fjord, platforms”, states the WMO in their press release
    they met with RV Polarstern in early June for the                 from 7 May 2020. Typically, commercial airliners of
    transfer. MOSAiC leader and chief scientist of leg                43 airlines and several thousand aircraft contribute
    4 Markus Rex is proud of the MOSAiC logistic                      to the WMO Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay
    team who assessed all possible options to make                    (AMDAR) programme with daily over 800,000
    the transfer happen: “It had been a difficult time                high-quality automatic observations of atmospheric
    for MOSAiC, and sometimes it was not clear at all                 temperature, wind speed and direction, and
    whether the                                                                                                                       Aikaterini Tavri is launching a weather balloon from Polarstern‘s helicopter deck during MOSAiC leg 4. Polarstern was the first
    expedition                                                                                                                        location where radiosonde descents were recorded. The COVID-19 pandemic caused the German Weather Service to speed up the
    would go on,                                                                                                                      process to implement meteorological data from all German radiosondes during descent, it has been operational since July 2020
    but in the                                                                                                                        (photo: Lisa Grosfeld/Alfred Wegener Institute).
    end, while                                                                                                                        Why not Measure while Radiosonde Sinks                           the new software to make sure the data is recorded
    most of the                                                                                                                       In order to keep up the good quality of forecasts                in both the DWD and the Polarstern system and
    international                                                                                                                     despite the decrease in airborne observations since              then being fed into the Global Telecommunication
    expeditions                                                                                                                       mid-March, the German Weather Service (DWD)                      System (GTS) of the WMO where it is available
    had to be                                                                                                                         reacted quickly. Not only did they increase the                  for the national weather centers to use the data to
    cancelled                                                                                                                         number of weather balloon launches over Germany                  initiate their forecasts”. Since May 2020, data from
    due to the                                                                                                                        since early April, they used the humidity data from              all radiosondes’ dives in Germany are recorded and
    Corona virus,                                                                                                                     the Global Navigation Satellite System GNSS as                   used in the DWD’s global and regional forecast
    MOSAiC                                                                                                                            well as radar volume data to measure radial wind                 models. “MeteoSwiss, the UK Met Office and other
    continues”.                                                                                                                       and precipitation. The DWD also initiated the use                European countries have also prompted to follow
    During the                                                                                                                        of the radiosondes’ descents for obtaining additional            us and started to measure atmospheric data during
    time when        Number of observational data per day used in the global DWD model ICON in June 2019 (left) vs. May 2020.         atmospheric data. Previously, radiosondes had                    their sondes’ descents”, says Cress.
    Polarstern       A decrease from about 10 to 4 per cent of assimilated data from airborne observations is caused by the reduced   recorded meteorological data only during ascents.
    left the                                                                                                                          But why not measure atmospheric data also after the              Modest Impact at the Poles?
    central Arctic sea-ice observatory unwatched for                  increasingly also adding humidity and turbulence                weather balloon has burst in the stratosphere, which             Recording the radiosondes’ drop down over the
    some weeks, most of the research camp needed                      measurements. In June 2019 about ten per cent of                usually happens around thirty kilometers elevation,              small research town Ny-Alesund on Svalbard
    to be packed. However, some of the autonomous                     the data assimilated into the global DWD ICON                   and sondes sink to the ground? The radiosonde                    would require both additional personnel to adjust
    instruments left on the ice floe during the vessel’s              model were from airborne observations, reducing to              manufacturer Vaisala had already equipped their                  the software and consultation with the Norwegian
    absence continued measurements. “After our                        only about four per cent in May 2020. In a test run             radiosonde model 41 with the ability to measure                  Meteorological Institute through which the
    return to the floe, re-building of the research camp              by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather                 data while the sonde drops down. “Polarstern                     atmospheric data is transmitted to the GTS. “But
    happened within just a week”, says Rex who came                   Forecasts (ECMWF) all airborne observations were                was the first location where we tested the data                  since there aren’t a lot of commercial overflights in
    back to an Arctic Ocean bathed in 24-hour-daylight,               removed from the forecast. “The sensitivity studies             uptake during the radiosondes’ descent starting in               the Arctic, we wouldn’t expect a lot of atmospheric
    much different from what he had experienced during have shown that in particular the short-range wind                             September 2019”, says Alexander Cress, a senior                  data loss across the North Pole”, says Detlev
    the dark Arctic winter conditions during leg 1. This              and temperature forecasts at 11 to 12 kilometers                research scientist in the data assimilation section              Majewski. Indeed, weather observations have not
    time it is a light version of the research camp as the            height – which is a typical aircraft cruising altitude          of the German Weather Service‘s Meteorological                   been strongly impacted so far in the Arctic, confirms
    ongoing instability of ice floe requires flexibility              – would degrade by up to 15%, with significant                  Analysis and Numerical Modeling department.                      Marion Maturilli, head of the Meteorological
    and the possibility to rapidly pack up instruments.               degradations at all forecast ranges up to seven                 Cress was the one who initiated and supported from               Observatory of the AWIPEV Research Base in
    “However, we might also be able to stay on this ice               days”, states ECMWF on 24 March 2020 in a news                  Germany this very first test run in the central Arctic.          Ny-Alesund, Svalbard. “For research campaigns
    floe until the end of this phase of the expedition”,              article on their website.                                       “It included a little bit of puzzling out how to install         in February and March and during the YOPP

6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       7
POLARPREDICTNEWS - POLAR PREDICTION PROJECT
Targeted Observing Period around and after                     “The exchange of the overwintering team will take         measurements are drastically reduced”, reports              or Antarctic very much (37%) or at least to some
    Easter, we launched weather balloons every six                 place during austral summer as scheduled. Routine         Lynne Talley, professor for oceanography at the             extent (52%). So far, the working situation of more
    hours. Otherwise, we did one radiosonde per                    meteorological measurements and maintenance of            Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of          than 40% of the survey participants has not been
    day.“ However, the crisis already had impact on a              instruments will thus be secured also for the coming      California, San Diego.                                      impacted by COVID-19 while more than 30% (50%
    research campaign using the German Polar 5 and 6               year at the Neumayer station”, says Schmithüsen.                                                                      of female respondents) indicated that they would
    aircraft within the YOPP-endorsed (AC)³ project.                                                                         Impact to Research Operations Strongly                      now have less time to carry out research due to
                                                                   “The COVID-19 pandemic has caused all National            Expected                                                    additional duties (including childcare, household
                                                                   Antarctic Programmes to reconsider how they               Resulting from a recent, non-representative survey          etc.). Only 13% of the survey participants expect
                                                                   can support the coming field season, with a united        carried out by the YOPP International Coordination          the national lock downs to impact the quality of
                                                                   focus on keeping Antarctica free from the virus”,         Office, there is concern among the polar                    Arctic or Antarctic forecast while there exists a huge
                                                                   is stated by Antarctica News Zealand which is             prediction community regarding a potential gap              uncertainty (more than 45%). More than 30% do
                                                                   New Zealand‘s government agency responsible for           in the collection of polar data and the subsequent          not consider the pandemic to have any impact to
                                                                   carrying out activities in Antarctica. Therefore, plans   deterioration of observational quality that might           forecast quality. However, operations are expected
                                                                   are to only support essential operational activities      reduce the amount of data assimilated into numerical        to being impacted “very much” (more than 40%) or
                                                                   and planned maintenance in the austral summer             models which eventually could lead to a loss of             at least “a little bit” (more than 20%) during the next
                                                                   season 2020/2021.                                         forecast accuracy. “Several field campaigns have            field seasons in the Arctic and Antarctic.
                                                                                                                             been cancelled or changed which will affect the
                                                                   “Regarding ships‘ operations, to my knowledge             availability for observational data to compare with         Much of the personal communication and exchange
                                                                   all levels of weather forecast communication for          numerical models”, says meteorology professor at            is now being compensated by video conferencing.
                                                                   merchant ships have been reported as ‘regular’”,          Stockholm University Gunilla Svensson who leads             “In some cases, this new way of networking might
                                                                   says Thomas Viguier, a former Safety and Security         the YOPPSiteMIP effort to evaluate model output             even be an advantage, with new collaborations
    Survey Question 1: The pandemic so far has impacted my         Officer of Merchant Marine now working as a               with polar observations.                                    between far-apart colleagues being established and
    daily operations/life/the research I am involved with in the   researcher at the Icelandic Arctic Cooperation                                                                        online conferences being much more accessible to
    Arctic and/or Antarctica?
                                                                   Network in Akureyri, Iceland. “However, maritime          If travel restrictions continue and only limited            everyone”, says Helge Goessling, climate scientist
                                                                   traffic reduced drastically mainly due to the             staff is allowed to stay at the polar research              at the Alfred Wegener Institute. “The reduced
    “Our flight campaign to support MOSAiC was                     impossibility to call at ports, the economic situation    stations, maintenance and service requirements              carbon footprint of our research community is
    supposed to launch in March/April 2020, aligned                and border control.” The cancellation of shipboard        for instruments will not be kept at a high level.           also a positive aspect. Some aspects, however, will
    to the YOPP Targeted Observations. But because                 operations also affects this year’s research cruises      “The installation of a new tall tower automatic             be difficult to compensate if strong constraints
    during this time there was no way to travel to                 that were already underway but are now cancelled.         weather station (AWS) at Byrd Station is now                due to the pandemic remain. For example, the
    Svalbard from where we would have departed, the                “Even for next year, all cruises in the Indian Ocean      delayed, as is much of the field work to maintain           establishment of research networks by young
    entire activity had to be cancelled”, says Manfred             sector of Southern Ocean were cancelled already           the AWS network”, says                                                                    scientists and intense
    Wendisch who is a meteorology professor at the                 so opportunities to deploy buoys or moorings have         Matthew Lazzara, research                                                                 workshops where
    University of Leipzig and leads (AC)³. The second              been changing rapidly, and shipboard support              meteorologist and principal                                                               people stick their heads
    MOSAiC aircraft campaign is, however, scheduled                                                                          investigator of the United                                                                together for a few days
    to take place as planned in August/September                                                                             States’ Antarctic Automatic                                                               to advance the science.
    2020. Other atmospheric science field work in                                                                            Weather Station Program                                                                   This can hardly be done
    Greenland, the Canadian Arctic or in Alaska has                                                                          that is maintained by the                                                                 online.”
    been either cancelled or postponed. Remote stations                                                                      Antarctic Meteorological
    such as Summit in Greenland might eventually run                                                                         Research Center at the                                                                       Early-career scientists
    out of helium and therefore need to reduce their                                                                         University of Wisconsin-                                                                     might indeed be
    radiosounding frequency.                                                                                                 Madison.                                                                                     seriously affected
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          from the pandemic
    At the other side of the world, at the German                                                                            In the survey that was                                                                       as field work for PhD
    Antarctic research station Neumayer, the impact                                                                          open from 6 to 20 July                                                                       projects is getting
    of COVID-19 so far seems to be modest. Holger                                                                            2020, the majority of the                                                                    delayed and networking
    Schmithüsen who leads the meteorological                                                                                 47 respondents indicated                                                                     opportunities shrink to a
    observatory at Neumayer does not expect                                                                                  that the pandemic so far                                                                     minimum. Irlanda Mora
    the pandemic to impact routine atmospheric                                                                               has impacted their daily                                                                     Rosales did her Master
    measurements from the station. However, again,                                                                           operations, life and/or
                                                                                                                                                          Survey Question 3: Did/Will the national lock downs impact the in Antarctic Sciences at
                                                                                                                                                          quality of weather and sea ice forecasts in/around your area of
    research activities for the next Antarctic summer              Survey Question 2: The COVID-19 situation has given me
                                                                                                                             their research in the Arctic operations in the Arctic and/or Antarctica?                     the Chilean University
                                                                   more time to work on scientific results.
    season have already been cancelled or postponed.                                                                                                                                                                      of Magallanes. “Doing

8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     9
POLARPREDICTNEWS - POLAR PREDICTION PROJECT
02
     science in South America is very difficult                                                                              Towards Improved Forecasts in Northern Europe with a New Snow
     as education is not a priority. We already
     have social, economics, ethics, and now also                                                                            Model Forecast Experiment
     ‘pandemic’ problems.”
                                                                                                                             by Jonny Day and Gabriele Arduini, European                showcase the excellent work done by the Finnish
     Wind Speed Measured from Space                                                                                          Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts                  Meteorological Institute (FMI) in collecting rich
     It can be considered pure luck that the Earth                                                                                                                                      meteorological data at Sodankylä, a snow covered
     observation satellite ADM-Aeolus has                                                                                    The original article has been published at the             boreal site in Finnish Lapland (e.g. Essery et al.
     been launched by the European Satellite                                                                                 ECMWF Science Blogs.                                       (2016) and Leppänen et al., (2016)) and highlight
     Agency at the right time to compensate for                                                                                                                                         their use at ECMWF.
     the loss of wind data through the drop in                                                                               Snow plays a crucial role in weather and climate,
     airborne atmospheric observations during the                                                                            particularly in high latitude and high altitude
     COVID-19 pandemic. Every three seconds, a                                                                               regions which are covered in deep snow either
     laser beam is sent from the satellite through the                                                                       permanently or for large parts of the year. It is an
     atmosphere where it is reflected by aerosols                                                                            important reservoir of fresh water for drinking
                                                           Survey Question 4: I expect the pandemic to impact the future
     and other particles. The movements of the             efforts in research and operations in the Arctic and Antarctica   and agriculture, and dramatically influences
     particles causes a frequency shift between the        with regard to weather and sea-ice forecasts.                     surface meteorology. Flooding associated with
     laser beam and its reflection, the so-called                                                                            rapid snow melt also poses significant hazard to
     Doppler effect, which can be translated into                                                                            human life. It is, therefore, crucial for weather
                                                           The new data sources that have been added during                  and hydrological forecasting at ECMWF that
     a wind speed. Since May 2020, the German              spring and summer this year to initiate DWD’s
     Weather Service has added this data to initiate                                                                         forecasts of snow and its influence on the weather
                                                           global and regional forecast models will be pursued,              are well captured in the forecasting system.
     their global forecast model ICON. Considering         even after airborne measurements might be back to a
     the positive experience which the national            pre-pandemic state. “In a way, COVID-19 has forced
     weather services are now gaining from using                                                                             Currently, most operational numerical weather
                                                           us to speed up enhancements which were planned                    prediction (NWP) models use only a single-layer
     the laser measurements from space, it has a           anyway to improve the quality of forecasts”, says
     drop of bitterness when Alex Cress and Detlev                                                                           snow scheme, which is thought to contribute to
                                                           Majewski. “With the additional data, we do not see                systematic temperature biases in ECMWF forecasts
     Majewski mention that the laser onboard               any deterioration of the forecasts’ quality. However,
     ADM-Aeolus is still a scientific mission: “After                                                                        in high latitude regions, including Northern Europe
                                                           as I mentioned – in some years, the weather forecast              during winter and spring (Arduini et al., 2019).
     the laser will be down in probably one and a          is more easy. This year is difficult anyway.”
     half years, it will take another four to five years                                                                     Using a single-layer snow scheme can also lead to
     to build another laser. But then it will be for                                                                         errors in the simulation of snow depth and cover.
     operational use of wind data”.                                                                                          For example, during spring, the single-layer scheme        Top: comparison of coupled atmosphere multi-layer snow
                                                                                                                                                                                        forecasts (coloured shading) with in-situ snow temperature
                                                                                                                             contributes to sluggish snowmelt. This leads to            (a) and snow density (b) measurements (coloured dots) (from
                                                                                                                             errors in hydrological forecasting but also to errors      Arduini et al. (2019)). The observed snow depth is shown with
                                                                                                                             in temperature, by delaying the transition to snow-        a grey line. Figures a & b reproduced under Creative Common
                                                                                                                                                                                        Licence CC BY 4.0.
                                                                                                                             free conditions in the forecasts.

                                                                                                                             A state-of-the-art multi-layer snow scheme has             Improved 2-Metre Temperature Forecasts
                                                                                                                             been implemented in an experimental version                in the Medium Range
                                                                                                                             of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as              A warm bias in night-time temperatures and a cold
                                                                                                                             part of ECMWF’s contribution to the WMO’s                  bias during the day is a long-standing error in the
                                                                                                                             Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) and the H2020-             IFS in Northern Europe during spring (page 12
                                                                                                                             APPLICATE project which is expected to improve             Figure a, b and c). Further analysis at Sodankylä
                                                                                                                             this situation. It is currently under testing within the   reveals that this underestimation of the amplitude of
                                                                                                                             4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation       the diurnal cycle of 2 m temperature is due to a lack
                                                                                                                             system and is expected to become operational in a          of sensitivity to changes in radiation in the IFS (page
                                                                                                                             forthcoming operational upgrade. Here, we present          12 Figure d). This lack of sensitivity is partly due to
                                                                                                                             some examples of the improvements the new snow             the use of the single-layer snow model in which the
                                                                                                                             model will bring to ECMWF forecasts, focused on            entire snowpack is represented by one layer and so
                                                                                                                             Northern Europe. This provides an opportunity to           a large thermal inertia can result if the snow pack is
                                                                                                                                                                                        deep, as is the case in Scandinavian regions during

10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      11
POLARPREDICTNEWS - POLAR PREDICTION PROJECT
winter and early spring (see ECMWF Newsletter,                   sensitivity (leading to more rapid warming in the            and density at Sodankylä, from observations and         References
     Haiden et al., 2018).                                            morning and cooling in the evening) can be seen              from forecasts coupled to the multi-layer snow          Arduini, G., Balsamo, G., Dutra, E., Day, J.J.,
                                                                      nicely by looking at how 2 m temperature responds            model. Snow temperature is measured by an               Sandu, I., Boussetta, S., Haiden, T. 2019: Impact
     Introducing the multi-layer scheme reduces these                 to variations in radiative forcing (Day et al., 2020),       array of thermistors which is covered by the snow       of a Multi-Layer Snow Scheme on Near-Surface
     errors by increasing the amplitude of the diurnal                such as the diurnal cycle of solar radiation (page 12        during wintertime, while snow density profiles          Weather Forecasts. Journal of Advances in Modeling
     cycle of temperature (page 12 Figure c). This is                 Figure d).                                                   are measured every week or so by digging a pit in       Earth Systems, doi: 10.1029/2019MS001725
     because directly representing a thin top layer of                                                                             the snow and weighing a snow sample of a certain
     snow, with a lower thermal inertia, makes the                    Realistic vertical snow structure                            volume at different depths.                             Day, J.J., Arduini, G., Sandu, I., Magnusson, L.,
     surface and near-surface air temperature more                    When adding a new Earth-system component to the              The multilayer snow model captures the propagation      Beljaars, A., Balsamo, G. et al. 2020: Measuring the
     sensitive to variations in radiative forcing than                forecasting system, it is also important to understand       of hot and cold waves within the snowpack, which is     Impact of a New Snow Model using Surface Energy
     is possible with the single-layer scheme, making                 the changes at the process level. Page 11 figures a          a key feature of deep snowpacks. Comparison of          Budget Process Relationships. Journal of Advances
     the simulation more realistic. This increase in                  and b show time-height plots of snow temperature             the modelled temperature with observations suggests     in Earth Systems Modelling [preprint],
                                                                                                                                   that the downward propagation of this cold wave         doi: 10.1002/essoar.10502951.1
                                                                                                                                   through the snowpack is well represented by the
                                                                                                                                   model. The temporal evolution of snow density           Essery, R., Kontu, A., Lemmetyinen, J., Dumont,
                                                                                                                                   also looks realistic throughout the season (see page    M., Ménhard, C.B. 2016: A 7-year dataset for
                                                                                                                                   11 Figure b), even though the snow density of the       Driving and Evaluating Snow Models at an
                                                                                                                                   bottom of the snowpack is overestimated by the          Arctic Site (Sodankylä, Finland). Geoscientific
                                                                                                                                   model, particularly after February.                     Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems
                                                                                                                                                                                           Modelling 5(1), 219–227,
                                                                                                                                   These results highlight the motivation and the          doi: 10.5194/gi-5-219-2016
                                                                                                                                   impact that the new snow model is expected to
                                                                                                                                   have on ECMWF forecasts. They also provide              Haiden, T., Sandu, I., Balsamo, G., Arduini, G.,
                                                                                                                                   an excellent example of how process-oriented            Beljaars, A. 2018: Addressing Biases in Near-
                                                                                                                                   evaluation of model developments at supersites,         Surface Forecasts. ECMWF. ECMWF Newsletter
                                                                                                                                   such as Sodankylä, helps to ensure that model           157), 20–25.
                                                                                                                                   developments are improving forecasts for the right
                                                                                                                                   reasons. However, clearly there is more to do to        Leppänen, L., Kontu, A., Hannula, H.-R., Sjöblom,
                                                                                                                                   understand and improve systematic forecast errors       H., Pulliainen, J. 2016: Sodankylä Manual Snow
                                                                                                                                   at this complex site, where interplay between snow,     Survey Program. Geoscientific Instrumentation,
                                                                                                                                   forest and atmosphere create a complex web of           Methods and Data Systems Modelling 5(1), 163–
                                                                                                                                   interactions. Work to further understand the sources    179, doi: 10.5194/gi-5-163-2016
                                                                                                                                   of error at Sodankylä, and other Arctic sites will be
                                                                                                                                   conducted as part of INTERACTIII.

     Top: Spatial map of March–April daily minimum (a) and maximum (b) temperature error for the ECMWF operational system
     at a lead time of 2 days. Bottom: (c) March–April mean diurnal cycle of 2 m temperature at Sodankylä in observations and in
     the ECMWF forecasting system with single-layer and multi-layer snow. (d) Mean temperature for each hour of the day as a
     function of downwelling shortwave radiation (numbers on the observed curve represent the hour of the day in UTC).

12                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                13
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03
     Combining Modeling and Observations for Improved Sea-Ice Predictions
     by Lars Nerger, Alfred Wegener Institute                         Data assimilation combines models with real                     sea-surface temperature and sea-ice properties like
                                                                      observational data. In the study, this methodology              thickness, concentration and drift velocity.
     The original article has been published on the                   is used to generate improved model fields which                 Including the data assimilation, the sea ice and the
     Helmholtz ESM webpage.                                           are then used to initialize the computation of model            ocean circulation becomes more realistic, as can be
                                                                      predictions. Other applications of data assimilation            shown when comparing the study with independent,
     In a study recently published in the Journal of                  are the assessment of model error and an optimized              non-assimilated observations. In general, the data-
     Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, a seamless                  representation of model processes.                              assimilation methodology is configured in a way
     sea-ice prediction system is introduced with a                                                                                   that each observation type can influence all model
     focus on the data assimilation component.                        A particularity of the model and data assimilation              variables. These effects can be assessed by studying
                                                                      system is that a so-called coupled model – the                  single data types. For example, the sea-ice drift
     Sea ice is an important component of the Earth                   Alfred-Wegener-Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM)                 velocities help to improve the representation of the
     system because it strongly influences heat exchanges             – was used. AWI-CM simulates interactions between               sea-ice thickness, and the sea-surface temperature
     between the ocean and the atmosphere. Models                     the ocean and sea ice as well as the atmosphere and             observations improve the ocean circulation at mid
     are used to predict the state of the sea-ice over                land surface. In this study, the data assimilation              depth.
     time scales from days to years. In a recent study,               software Parallel Data Assimilation Framework
     published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling                 (PDAF) is directly connected to AWI-CM to provide               The study by Mu et al. is therefore an important
     Earth Systems, Longjiang Mu and his colleagues                   online data-assimilation functionality. Directly                step toward a fully-featured sea-ice prediction
     from the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz                      combining the model with the data assimilation as               system. It further builds the sea-ice component of
     Centre for Polar and Marine Research developed                   done here reduces the computation time. In the study            the assimilation system that is currently developed
     and assessed a seamless sea-ice prediction system                by Mu et al., the data assimilation focused on ocean            in the Advanced Earth System Modelling Capacity
     with a focus on the data assimilation component.                 and sea ice, by assimilating observations of the                (ESM) project funded by the German Helmholtz
                                                                                                                                      Association (see more here). Within the ESM
                                                                                                                                      project, also other observations of the ocean and the
                                                                                                                                      atmosphere will be assimilated into various models
                                                                                                                                      to find good initial fields for prediction simulations,
                                                                                                                                      but also for the assessment of the models’ skills.

                                                                                                                                      Reference
                                                                                                                                      Mu, L., Nerger, L., Tang, Q., Losa, S.N.,
                                                                                                                                      Sidorenko, D., Wang, Q., Semmler, T.,
                                                                                                                                      Zampieri, L., Losch, M., Goessling,
                                                                                                                                      H.F. 2020: Toward a Data Assimilation
                                                                                                                                      System for Seamless Sea Ice
                                                                                                                                      Prediction Based on the AWI
                                                                                                                                      Climate Model. Journal of
                                                                                                                                      Advances in Modeling Earth
                                                                                                                                      Systems 12.
                                                                                                                                      doi: 10.1029/2019MS001937

     Sea-ice drift velocity averaged over the years 2008-2018 in the Arctic and Antarctic. Left column: the experiment without data
     assimilation, middle column: the experiment with data assimilation with improved drift, right column: comparison data from the
     Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF) (source: Mu et al., for details see text).

14                                                                                                                                                                                              15
POLARPREDICTNEWS - POLAR PREDICTION PROJECT
04
     Improving Weather Forecasts in the Arctic
     by Anna Kathinka Dalland Evans, Norwegian                        The primary objective of the Alertness project is to                                                                     our thanks to the communication department at the
     Meteorological Institute                                         improve Arctic weather forecasts and warnings, for                                                                       Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research for running
                                                                      the benefit of maritime operations, business and                                                                         the technical part of the event smoothly, and to
     Special conditions and few available observations                society.                                                                                                                 the communication department at the Norwegian
     provide extra challenges when forecasting                                                                                                                                                 Meteorological Institute for help in forming the
     weather in the northern regions. How do                          Talking about Weather Forecasting: the                                                                                   content of the event.
     researchers work with improving weather                          Online Event
     forecasts in the Arctic?                                         The event, which was broadcasted on Youtube,                                                                             The lectures and discussion are available online
                                                                      included four short popular science talks, as well                                                                       here (in Norwegian).
     Close to a hundred viewers followed the open                     as a session where a panel of researchers from The
     live streaming event when researchers from the                   Norwegian Meteorological Institute, The University       After the talks, a panel of researchers from The Norwegian
     YOPP-endorsed Alertness project invited everyone                 Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) and the Bjerknes Centre        Meteorological Institute, The University Centre in Svalbard
     interested to join them in a set of open lectures on
                                                                                                                                                                                                   About: Alertness
                                                                      for Climate Research, answered questions from the        (UNIS) and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, answe-
     this subject on May 27, 2020.                                    audience.
                                                                                                                               red questions from the audience (screenshot: Matilda Hallers-       Alertness (Advanced models and weather
                                                                                                                               tig).
                                                                                                                                                                                                   prediction in the Arctic) is a 4-year (2018–2021)
     The event was supposed to have taken place in                    Matilda Hallerstig is currently working on a Ph.D.                                                                           research project about Arctic weather prediction
                                                                                                                               a weather forecast is made, and why it does not
     Longyearbyen at Svalbard but was moved to an                     thesis within the Alertness project at NORCE/                                                                                financed by the Norwegian Research Council.
                                                                                                                               always correspond to the actual weather that people
     online platform due to the current COVID-19                      Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research. She kicked                                                                             The aim is to develop world leading capacity
                                                                                                                               experience.
     situation.                                                       off the online event with her story about how she                                                                            for the delivery of reliable and accurate Arctic
                                                                      moved from working as a weather forecaster in the        Finally, project lead for Alertness Jørn Kristiansen                weather forecasts and warnings for the benefit
     “People in the north naturally have an extra interest            city of Tromsø in the north of Norway, to working                                                                            of maritime operations, business and society.
                                                                                                                               from The Norwegian Meteorological Institute
     in the weather and in precise weather forecasting“,              with research on improving weather models. A text                                                                            Alertness is led by the Meteorological Institute
                                                                                                                               explained how the people involved in Alertness
     says Marius Jonassen, who lives in Longyearbyen                  version of this story is available at Science Norway.                                                                        of Norway (MET Norway) and is a cooperation
                                                                                                                               work with improving weather forecasts in the north.
     and works at the University Centre in Svalbard                   Hallerstig had also contributed an an article to Polar                                                                       between MET Norway, the University of Bergen
                                                                                                                               They work with developing the AROME Arctic
     (UNIS). Jonassen is co-lead for the Alertness                    Prediction Matters dialogue platform maintained by                                                                           (UiB), the Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE),
                                                                                                                               model in ways related to data assimilation, sub-
     research project. “We have a lot of field activities             the PPP International Coordination Office.                                                                                   the University of Tromsø (UiT), The Royal
                                                                                                                               grid scale parameterisations and the generation of
     with our students and staff“, he explains. “And in                                                                                                                                            Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI),
                                                                                                                               ensembles. “I would like to thank everyone who
     this context, precise weather forecasting is extremely           Marius Jonassen talked about the importance of                                                                               the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing
                                                                                                                               contributed into making this open event a success“,
     important for safety reasons.“                                   accurate weather forecasts for students and staff at                                                                         Center (NERSC) and The University Centre in
                                                                                                                               Kristiansen says. “An important aspect of Alertness
                                                                      UNIS and gave examples from field work conducted         is that academic researchers collaborate directly                   Svalbard (UNIS).
                                                                      in Svalbard. Morten Køltzow, researcher from The         with operational forecasting centres, and this was
                                                                      Norwegian Meteorological Institute, explained how        presented very nicely.“                                             Alertness home page:
     Students from the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) on
     a field trip in Isfjorden, Svalbard (photo: Nils Roar Sælthun/                                                                                                                                https://www.alertness.no/en/home
     UNIS).                                                                                                                    Thanks to everyone who gave talks and were part
                                                                                                                               of the discussion panel, and to those who watched                   Alertness is endorsed by the Year of Polar
                                                                                                                               the event live online and asked great questions. Also               Prediction (YOPP).

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POLARPREDICTNEWS - POLAR PREDICTION PROJECT
05                                                                                                                       06
     Third Coordinated Sea-Ice Forecast Experiment in the Southern Ocean                                                      Background Story – Tell it with a Comic
     by François Massonnet, Université Catholique de                 forecasts in the Southern Ocean. SIPN South has          by Sara Pasqualetto, Alfred Wegener Institute                 organized by the European Commission and the
     Louvain, Belgium                                                just issued its third post-season report evaluating      and International Coordination Office for Polar               Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized
                                                                     forecasts submitted in late November 2019 and            Prediction                                                    Enterprises (EASME). While Jung was discussing
     The Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN                      targeting the three-month period December                                                                              the APPLICATE project and its objectives and
     South) just issued its third post-season report                 2019-February 2020 (report available here).              Thinking of alternative ideas to get scientific               results, among the audience, the artist Fiammetta
     evaluating forecasts of sea-ice conditions around                                                                        results across is becoming a greater part of the              Ghedini transformed his words and science graphs
     Antarctica for the austral sea-ice                                                   One of the key findings, already    science process. Not only for peer-reviewed                   into a drawing.
     minimum season 2019/2020.                                                            hinted at last year, is that        publications but also when writing research
                                                                                          forecasts based on statistical      proposals and managing science projects,                      In an interview with Fiammetta Ghedini, who
     Operations in the Southern Ocean                                                     approaches seem more skillful       communication plays a crucial and ever                        founded RIVA Illustration, we discuss with her what
     are intensifying, both as a result of                                                than forecasts based on fully       increasing role. The question often is: how to                is behind this and many other illustrations created
     increased scientific interest for this                                               coupled dynamical models. This      deliver my message to a larger audience, without              by her start-up, we talk about visual storytelling and
     remote region and a growing interest                                                 indicates a large potential for     losing important pieces in the process?                       the relation between science and art. Read the full
     from stakeholders. Navigating                                                        improvement in our physical                                                                       article in the YOPP Background Stories.
     Antarctic waters is not without risk                                                 understanding of the Southern       A team of researchers and artists thought about
     though. The presence of sea ice,                                                     Ocean sea ice using process-        this and came up with a brilliant solution to make
     even in summer months, can hinder                                                    based models. Key regions like      science fun and more accessible: On the occasion
     the progression of vessels and, in the worst case,              the Ross Sea appear to be intrinsically difficult to     of the AAAS Annual Meeting in Seattle (see also
     become a real danger. In recent years, the study                predict and strongly influenced by unpredictable         PPP news item from 10 February 2020), artists
     of sea-ice predictability in the Southern Ocean                 weather events.                                          from the RIVA Illustrations start-up company
     has progressed and several potential mechanisms                                                                          created amazing pieces of art, inspired by the
     have been identified that bear promise for skillful             SIPN South will continue to collect forecast for the     scientific presentations at the meeting. APPLICATE
     predictions.                                                    coming years, including for the winter YOPP-SH           coordinator and PPP Steering Group chair Thomas
                                                                     Special Observing Period that is scheduled for mid-      Jung was among the presenters of the session on The
     SIPN South is an international initiative endorsed              April to mid-July 2022.                                  Future of Earth’s Climate: A World of Extremes?,
     by the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), that aims
     at coordinating realistic seasonal summer sea-ice               Find the SIPN South website here.

                                                                                                                             Live drawing by Fiammetta Ghedini from the presentation “Frontiers in Earth System Modeling: Where Do We Go From Here?“
       Antarctic sea ice (photo: Thomas Ronge/Alfred Wegener Institute).                                                     at AAAS 2020.

18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     19
07                                                                                                            08
     Antarctic Meteorology and Climate Special Issue                                                               Special Issue on the Societal Value of Improved Forecasting
     by Jenny Lin, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences       producing important information for policymakers“,       by Daniela Liggett, University of Christchurch, New    increase in users also producing weather and climate
                                                          said Ming Xue, an AAS editor-in-chief, and               Zealand                                                information and vice versa. This development seems
     The original article was published in Eurek Alert!   professor and director of the Center for Analysis and                                                           to go hand in hand with a move away from nation
                                                          Prediction of Storms at the University of Oklahoma       The academic journal Polar Geography has               states and the public sector as the main providers
     The Advances in Atmospheric Sciences special         in Norman, Oklahoma.                                     just published a special issue Societal Value of       of WWIC service towards a more prominent role
     issue entitled, Antarctic Meteorology and Climate:                                                            Improved Forecasting that compiles a range of          for the private sector in this space. Overall, the
     Past, Present and Future presents latest findings    The special issue also indicates that long-term          papers detailing work that has been undertaken         articles in this special issue address some important
     from expanded and ongoing research efforts           weather and climate changes are already underway         in conjunction with the PPP’s Societal and             questions regarding the use of WWIC and user
     in Antarctic meteorology, weather prediction,        across Antarctica and the Southern Ocean with            Economic Research and Applications (PPP-               needs as well as provider priorities. But they
     climate variability and climate change.              potentially far-reaching consequences, which will be     SERA) Task Team.                                       also raise further questions that serve as a timely
                                                          the object of future research.                                                                                  reminder that further work is needed on the effects
     The issue presents research conducted during                                                                  PPP-SERA championed this special issue as a            shifts in the WWIC actorscape, infrastructure and
     the Year of Polar Prediction – an international      Predict the Future Antarctic Climate more                community-building effort that also aims at reaching   funding landscape have for the continued and
     effort by the World Meteorological Organization      Accurate                                                 out to stakeholders world-wide. The publications       reliable provision of WWIC services, ideally with
     to improve predictions of weather, climate and       “Climate change research in the Antarctic is             featured in this special issue showcase research       the aim of reducing risks and improving operational
     sea-ice conditions in the Arctic and Antarctic.      relatively neglected compared to the Arctic,“ said       results and perspectives on “the use and potential     (and environmental) health and safety in the polar
     This collection of peer-reviewed papers provides     Jiping Liu, the issue‘s lead editor and associate        improvement of WWIC [weather, water, ice and           regions.
     evidence of variability and change in Antarctic      professor at the University at Albany in Albany,         climate] services for the polar regions in an effort
     environmental conditions, mostly based on enhanced   New York. “However, it‘s clear that climate change       to translate scientific and technological advances     The Special Issue in Polar Geography, Volume 43
     observations carried out during the YOPP Special     is already impacting the Antarctic and that studying     into societal value” (Lamers & Liggett, 2020). The     (2–3), 2020 can be found here.
     Observing Period in the Southern Ocean, the most     the changes is vital, because it enables us to predict   authors examine the
     extensive period of observations ever conducted in   the future climate more accurately.“                     multiple and complex
     and around Antarctica.                                                                                        ways of producing and
                                                          Signs of climate change in the Antarctic, added          using WWIC information
     More Reliable Weather Forecasts and                  Liu, include a strong warming over the Antarctic         in the polar regions and
     Climate Predictions                                  Peninsula, a deepening of the Amundsen Sea low,          shed light on who is
     YOPP efforts in the Southern Hemisphere stimulated   rapid warming of the upper ocean north of the            involved in this process,
     additional research in Antarctic meteorology         circumpolar current, an increase of sea ice since        what their information
     and climate by enabling                                                      the late 1970s followed by       needs are, what kind
     increased data collection and                                                a recent rapid decrease and      of information systems
     enhanced computing power                                                     accelerated ice loss from ice    and infrastructures are
     for modeling. The AAS special                                                shelf/sheet during the same      being utilized, how data
     issue suggests that future                                                   period                           is being managed, and
     Antarctic weather forecasts                                                                                   how WWIC services
     and climate predictions will                                                 “This is the second special      are funded. To this end,
     be more reliable based on the                                                issue published by AAS           regional case studies are
     combined new insights into                                                   highlighting scientific          included in this special
     the atmosphere, land surface,                                                progress in important areas      issue and highlight
     ocean conditions and sea-ice                                                 addressed by the YOPP“,          how diverse the WWIC
     variability – ultimately making                                              said Thomas Jung, professor      ‘actorscape’ is, and what
     operations in Antarctica and the                                             at the Alfred Wegener            current capabilities and
     Southern Ocean safer.                                                        Institute in Bremerhaven,        constraints frame WWIC
                                                                                  Germany, and YOPP                information provision and
     “These studies make                                                          coordinator. “In 2018, AAS       use.
     important contributions to our                                               also published a special
     understanding of the weather                                                 issue focusing on the impact     There is increasing
     and climate systems in the                                                   of Arctic change on Eurasian     erosion of the duality of
     polar regions and can improve                                                climate and weather.“            WWIC information users
     future climate projections while                                                                              versus providers and an

20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                21
09                                                                                                                      10
     Improving Weather, Water, Ice and Climate Information in the                                                            YOPP Endorsement Open until 2021
     Canadian Arctic                                                                                                         Projects, initiatives and institutions that           outstanding. As for the regular YOPP endorsement,
     The Canadian project Community WWIC Uses                          aims to better understand what Canadian Arctic        contribute to the aims of the Year of Polar           activities that request blind endorsement will receive
     and Needs (CWWICUN) recently received YOPP                        communities need to inform safe travel and how        Prediction are invited to request YOPP                a YOPP endorsement letter. However, to treat certain
     Endorsement. CWWICUN looks at improving                           the required information can be better accessed and   endorsement until the end of 2021. A ‘blind’          activities more confidentially, they will not be listed
     the weather, water, ice and climate information                   communicated. Local research coordinators are         YOPP-endorsement process is now also available        on the YOPP-endorsement page until funding is
     and services available to Canadian Inuit                          facilitating surveys in their home communities, and   on request for competitive funding situations.        secured. Through the blind YOPP endorsement, it is
     communities.                                                      responses will inform service providers and policy                                                          also possible to preclude particular reviewers.
                                                                       makers with the ultimate goal of improving WWIC       The Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and its flagship
     For people living in the Canadian Arctic,                         information and service delivery from local to        Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) initiative            Institutional Endorsement
     information on weather and ice conditions are                     international scales.                                 provide a unique collaboration and coordination       Institutional YOPP endorsement is also still
     crucial for planning their daily life and work.                                                                         opportunity for researchers involved in increasing    available. Research institutes and operational
     However, with the ongoing changes in climate and                  More information on CWWICUN can be found on           the understanding and improvement of polar            forecasting centers whose activities contribute to the
     industrial development, weather, water, ice and                   the project‘s website.                                environmental prediction. Projects, initiatives and   success of YOPP are invited to request institutional
     climate (WWIC) information and services have                                                                            institutions may seek endorsement from the PPP        YOPP endorsement. This differs from the project
     become less unpredictable, posing a risk for Inuit                CWWICUN and other YOPP-endorsed projects can          Steering Group. Benefits of YOPP endorsement          YOPP endorsement in the way that it addresses
     and other northern residents. The CWWICUN                         be found at the data base https://apps3.awi.de/YPP/   include increased visibility of research activities   general contributions to improving polar predictive
     project led by Gita Ljubicic, an Associate Professor              endorsed/projects. (kw/nm)                            (e.g., listing on the PPP website, featuring in       skill rather than individual academic projects or
     in the School of Earth, Environment and Society                                                                         PolarPredictNews newsletter); an international        programmes often sponsored through third-party
     at McMaster University (Hamilton, Canada),                                                                              framework for research to help leverage support       funding. With the institutional endorsement, the PPP
                                                                                                                             and funding; improved coordination between            Steering Group provides the possibility for research
                                                                                                                             different activities; and enhanced networking and     consortia such as operational weather forecasting
     Boats navigating sea ice during June break-up in Pangnirtung Fiord, Nunavut (photo: Gita Ljubicic).                     communication within the PPP/YOPP community.          centres and academic institutions to link with the
                                                                                                                             The opportunity for receiving YOPP endorsement        Year of Polar Prediction. (kw/tj/jw)
                                                                                                                             has been extended until the end of 2021.
                                                                                                                                                                                   Further information can be found https://
                                                                                                                             Blind YOPP Endorsement                                www.polarprediction.net/key-yopp-activities/
                                                                                                                             A blind YOPP endorsement                              yopp-endorsement/ or via email to office@
                                                                                                                             process has now been introduced.                      polarprediction.net.
                                                                                                                             This new mechanism
                                                                                                                             will allow people to
                                                                                                                             request
                                                                                                                             YOPP endorsement for
                                                                                                                             competitive projects
                                                                                                                             for which a funding
                                                                                                                             decision is still

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11
     Two New Contributions to Polar Prediction Matters
     Two new contributions to Polar Prediction                            In this contribution to Polar Prediction Matters,
     Matters – the dialogue platform for users and                        Jennifer Ross, PhD student at the University of
     providers of forecast in the polar regions – have                    Sheffield, describes the risks of sea-level rise and
     been published. In Risk and Reward, Jennifer                         iceberg abundance in the Nordic Seas caused by the
     Ross summarizes on the risks of the currently                        ongoing Greenland Ice Sheet melt. While there are
     ongoing Greenland ice sheet melting, and the                         fluctuations between seasons, the general trend of
     rewards to reliably predict and prevent harmful                      increased numbers of icebergs and meltwater input
     conditions. As an expert in Arctic shipping and                      over the years is likely to further rise. There is thus
     maritime industries, Thomas Viguier provides                         a need to better understand and predict the risks that
     insights on why it is so important to have                           are associated with both, enhanced flooding and
     accurate ice and weather predictions on board                        potential impacts to coastal areas, as well as hazards
     and what challenges the currently available                          for ships and offshore platforms in the open ocean.
     forecast software on the bridge are facing.                          To reliably forecast risks and thus help prevent
                                                                          hazards in the open ocean will be most rewarding
     Risk and Reward                                                      to scientists and forecasters able to support
     Today, the Earth’s ice sheets are constantly losing                  environmentally safe operations in the northern
     mass because of climate change. With about 79%                       regions. (kw/nm)
     ice-covered surface, Greenland has the second-
     largest ice sheet worldwide, after Antarctica.                       Find Jennifer Ross‘ Polar Prediction Matters article
     Ongoing melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet strongly                  here.
     affects the Atlantic and Arctic oceans, through sea-                                                                                              Example of an Integrated Bridge System (IBS) (source: http://www.gemrad.com/integrated-bridge-solutions/).
     level rise and iceberg release. This not only causes                 Ice and Weather Forecast Software on
     the global ocean circulation to destabilize, but the                 board Merchant Vessels                                              electronic ice and weather forecast software has
     water masses and numbers of icebergs released into                   Shipping in polar regions is challenged by extreme                  been introduced and is nowadays the preferred tool
     the sea also bear a number of risks for human and                    ice and weather conditions. Over the past years,                    for navigation from the bridge. It not only provides
     environment.                                                                                                                             information about the current weather and ice
                                                                                                                                              situation but displays forecasts to support officers in
                                                                                                                                              their decision-making process.                                      About: Polar Prediction Matters
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Polar Prediction Matters is a non-peer
                                                                                                                                              Focused on the interactions between the final users
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  reviewed forum initiated as a means to foster
                                                                                                                                              and the software application, Thomas Viguier, an
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  the dialogue between those that research,
                                                                                                                                              Arctic researcher working at the Icelandic Arctic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  develop, and provide polar environmental
                                                                                                                                              Cooperation Network in Akureyri, Iceland, explains
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  forecasts and those that use (or could use)
                                                                                                                                              the concept, benefits and challenges of the Integrated
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  polar environmental forecasts to guide
                                                                                                                                              Bridge System (IBS). “In the IBS approach, there
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  socio-economic decisions. It is hosted by the
                                                                                                                                              is a clear tendency in making data more accessible
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Helmholtz Association of German Research
                                                                                                                                              through software applications to maritime and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Center‘s blog portal and maintained by the
                                                                                                                                              shipping professionals, aiming to reduce risk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  International Coordination Office for Polar
                                                                                                                                              related to navigation in polar regions.“ Yet, often
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Prediction.
                                                                                                                                              the available software to display weather and ice
                                                                                                                                              forecasts appears complex, lacking user friendliness.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Polar Prediction Matters home page:
                                                                                                                                              Involving maritime end users to develop future on-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  https://blogs.helmholtz.de/
                                                                                                                                              board systems will be crucial to rapidly integrate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  polarpredictionmatters/
                                                                                                                                              new tools for successful use by the shipping
                                                                                                                                              industry. (kw/tv)

     In her new contribution to Polar Prediction Matters, Jennifer Ross writes: „Icebergs have been of public interest since the sinking      Find Thomas Viguier‘s Polar Prediction Matters
     of the RMS Titanic in 1912, off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada. While few ships sink from collisions with icebergs in this            article here.
     region nowadays, due mainly to daily forecasts of iceberg activity, icebergs still pose a direct risk to shipping and stationary plat-
     forms in the North-West Atlantic.“ (Photo: Darrel Swift, University of Sheffield)

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