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Post Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences and economic activities in the European Union
Post
Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences
    and economic activities in the European Union

                                           European Commission
Post Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences and economic activities in the European Union
Submitted to the European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and
Equal Opportunities

Executed by:
TNO Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research
SEOR Erasmus University Rotterdam
ZSI Centre for Social Innovation

DG EMPL project VC/2007/0866
Post

This report is published as part of a series of forward-looking sector studies on New Skills and New
Jobs in the frame of the project Comprehensive Sectoral Analysis of Emerging Competences and
Economic Activities in the European Union.

This publication is commissioned under the European Community Programme for Employment and
Social Solidarity - PROGRESS (2007-2013).

This programme is managed by the Directorate-General for Employment, social affairs and equal
opportunities of the European Commission. It was established to financially support the implemen-
tation of the objectives of the European Union in the employment and social affairs area, as set out
in the Social Agenda, and thereby contribute to the achievement of the Lisbon Strategy goals in
these fields.

The seven-year Programme targets all stakeholders who can help shape the development of appro-
priate and effective employment and social legislation and policies, across the EU-27, EFTA-EEA and
EU candidate and pre-candidate countries.

PROGRESS mission is to strengthen the EU contribution in support of Member States’ commitment.
PROGRESS will be instrumental in:
   1. providing analysis and policy advice on PROGRESS policy areas;
   2. monitoring and reporting on the implementation of EU legislation and policies in PROGRESS
      policy areas;
   3. promoting policy transfer, learning and support among Member States on EU objectives and
      priorities; and
   4. relaying the views of the stakeholders and society at large

For more information see:
http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/progress/index_en.html

The information contained in this publication does not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of
the European Commission.

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                                                                                          European Commission
Post Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences and economic activities in the European Union
Post
Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences
    and economic activities in the European Union

                         Executive Summary

                    The full study is available under the link
                    http://ec.europa.eu/restructuringandjobs

                             European Commission

    Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities
                                    Unit F3

                          Manuscript completed in 2009
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held
responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication.

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Preface

                      Education and        of ­society and the economy, as a
                      training, in the     means to increased competitive-
                      context of a life-   ness and growth, as well as to
                      long     learning    greater social cohesion, in Europe.
                      perspective, are
                      an indispensable     This is more important than ever in
                      means for pro-       the current situation of crisis that
moting adaptability and employabi­         will undoubtedly lead to substan-
lity, active citizenship, personal and     tial changes in economic activities
professional fulfilment.                   in Europe coming years.

Investment in human capital                With this in mind, the Commission
through better education, and the          has elaborated a set of analysis of
development of skills and compe-           emerging competences in 18 sec-
tences should be increased. It is          tors. Those analysis are available
important to anticipate skills needs       to all economic, social and profes-
— and also skills gaps — which are         sional organisations, educations
emerging in the European labour            and training institutions, etc. They
market, as well as to improve the          can help them to refine their stra­
matching of knowledge, skills              tegies and to engage into forward-
and competences with the needs             looking actions.

                                                                        Robert Verrue

                                                        Director-General, Employment,
                                             Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities DG

                                                                                    3
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Aims and methodology

The renewed Lisbon strategy and          by a number of other initiatives over
European Employment strategy             the oncoming year and beyond. The
stress the need for Europe to place      current economic crisis calls for the
more emphasis on a better antici-        reinforcement of policies aimed at
pation of skill needs together with      developing the employability of the
the need to reduce labour markets        workforce. This project fits within
mismatches. These policies aims          this policy objective.
also at minimising social costs
and facilitating adaptation during       18 sector studies,
restructuring processes through          one methodology
a better anticipation and positive
management of change. Globalisa-         The results of this study aim to serve
tion, technological change, climate      as a guide in launching further EU
change and demographic develop-          and other actions to promote the
ments (including ageing and migra-       strategic management of human
tion) in that respect pose huge chal-    resources and to foster stronger
lenges, comprising both risks and        synergies between innovation,
opportunities. In that context, the      skills and jobs, taking into account
Commission has launched recently         the global context and encourag-
the New Skills for New Jobs initiative   ing adaptations to national and
together with other related Euro-        regional level.
pean projects aimed at identifying
future job and skills needs using        To validate, add and complement
quantitative modelling approaches.       the findings of the project and
While having advantages of robust-       to make sure that results are dis-
ness, stakeholders as well as the        seminated as broadly as possible
European Commission identified a         across Europe, relevant stakehold-
clear need for complementary more        ers including European social part-
qualitative forward-looking analy-       ners, other services from the Com-
sis. Consequently, the European          mission with the expertise in the
Commission commissioned in 2007          sectors analysed, representatives
a series of 18 future-oriented sector    from the European Parliament,
studies (horizon 2020) on skills and     the European Economic and Social
jobs following a uniform, qualita-       Committee, the Committee of the
tive methodology. Results of these       Regions, Eurofound and Cedefop
studies have become available in         were involved in the project from
summer 2009, and will be followed        the beginning.

4
Aims and methodology

Sectors Covered
Automotive industry
Defence
Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products
Non-metallic materials (glass, cement, ceramic…)
Electromechanical engineering
Computer, electronic and optical products
Building of ships and boats
Furniture and others
Electricity, gas, water & waste
Distribution, trade
Hotels, restaurants, catering and related services
Transport
Post and telecommunications
Financial services (bank, insurance and others)
Health and social work
Other services, maintenance and cleaning

A standard predefined methodol-               for emerging competences and
ogy was developed by a panel of               occupation profiles in terms of
experts under the direction of Prof           jobs expanding, transforming or
Maria João Rodrigues and applied              declining, and their implications
to all 18 studies to ensure consis-           in terms of strategic choices and
tency and comparability of the                subsequent recommendations for
results, the studies being produced           companies, education and train-
by different contractors.                     ing systems, social partners and
                                              public authorities at all levels. This
Based on the basic methodologi-               foresight methodology implies an
cal framework, each contractor                approach combining desk ­research
­executed 7 defined steps, starting           and expert knowledge.
 with the mapping of main trends,
 key drivers of change, leading to            At the end of each sector study a
 scenarios of plausible evolution             final European workshop for the
 and their implication for employ-            sector was organised by the Com-
 ment at the year 2020 time horizon,          mission to validate results as well
 the identification of implications           as refine recommendations. In

                                                                                  5
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addition to European Commis-          of all sections were summarised
sion and Eurofound staff, about 20    in a SWOT analysis and were used
experts per workshop from indus-      as input to identify key drivers.
try, academia and sector organi-
sations including workers and         Drivers of change
employers’ representatives with
a sound knowledge of jobs and         On the basis of the mapping of
skills were invited to comment and    the sector, a set of key drivers,
provide recommendations to the        sector specific or not, was identi-
report as part of the methodology.    fied. Literature review and expert
                                      knowledge of the sector were
Brief description of                  then used to define a conclu-
the methodological steps              sive list of sector-specific drivers.
                                      Drivers were classified as exog-
Mapping                               enous or endogenous depend-
                                      ing on the ability for the sector’s
The main purpose of this analy-       stakeholders and policymakers
sis was to provide factual back-      to influence them. These lists of
ground to identify key drivers        drivers were also discussed in the
used in the subsequent scenario       experts’ ­p anel workshops.
development. Consequently, the
Report analysed recent sector         Qualitative scenarios and impli-
developments and trends and, at       cations for employment trends
the same time, depicts the current
state of play in the sector with an    The set of selected sectoral ­drivers
emphasis on innovation, skills        of change served as an input to
and jobs. It was based on an anal-    ­develop scenarios for the evolution
ysis of available time series data     of the sector and implications for
and relevant existing studies. It      different occupations (composition
analysed 1) structural character-      of employment / emerging compe-
istics (production, value added,       tences) in the period 2008 to 2020.
employment in various dimen-
sions, and related factors); 2)       Implications of scenarios and
the value chain; 3) technological     emerging competences
change and innovation; 4) trade
and international competition as      Scenarios were built to assess the
well as 5) regulation. The results    implications for the level (absolute

6
Aims and methodology

demand) and composition (relative       were looked at in this step of the
demand compared to other job            methodology, focussing more
functions) of employment of dif-        particularly on the specific role
ferent job functions by 2020. New       to be played by sectoral organi-
and emergent skills required by dif-    sations, educational institutions
ferent job functions were identified    and governments such as a stron-
based on the analysis of the evolu-     ger cooperation between stake-
tion of past data on employment         holders or an increased flexibility
by occupation, on the analysis from     through modularisation of educa-
the present situation and of experts’   tion and training.
comments during the workshop.
The focus was on identifying and        Recommendations
describing key and critical com-
petences for the future for each of     Each sector study contains spe-
the major occupational function in      cific recommendations to the
relation to the different scenarios     sector. However, with the studies
elaborated. These formed the basis      analysing Europe as a whole, the
for the strategic choices identified    recommendations remain gen-
in a next step.                         eral and need a follow-up at the
                                        national and regional level. The
Strategic choices for companies to      intention of the project especially
meet emergent competence needs          in the follow up phase is to use the
                                        results to stimulate stakeholders
Each sector study assessed possible     at lower territorial levels (national
strategic choices in terms of feasi-    / regional) to work out results in
bility and actor involvement. The       more details, repeat and adapt this
options comprised recruiting work-      exercise to local needs rather than
ers from other sectors, countries,      providing standardised solutions.
recruiting graduates, re-training       Some general recommendations
employed workers as well as chang-      call for an intensified co-operation
ing work organisation.                  between relevant stakeholders, the
                                        need to invest strongly in human
Specific implications                   capital, more standardised regu-
for education and training              lations, enhanced VET to increase
                                        social mobility and coordinated
Options to improve or to adapt          National and European Vocational
education and training systems          Qualifications.

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The post sector – main characterisation

The post sector comprises postal          communication (e-mail, Internet)
services (‘national post activities’)     and doing business (B2B; B2C; e-bill-
and courier activities. It includes       ing, e-banking) have importantly
activities such as pickup, transport      altered the sector, and have led to
and delivery of letters and parcels       new products and new demand,
as well as the use of the universal       most importantly for express par-
service infrastructure (including         cels. Post services have gradually
retail locations, sorting and process-    shifted from an industry based on
ing facilities) and carrier routes to     two-way communication (mail and
deliver the mail. An important dif-       parcels) to an industry rendering
ference exists between companies          transportation (parcels, packages,
with a universal service obligation       freight) and advertising services.
for specific mail items such as letters   Liberalisation and IT developments
and other companies with no such          have stimulated competition, have
obligation. Universal Service Provid-     enabled the entry of new com-
ers (USPs), have to provide services      petitors (express companies) and
nationwide for all customers. The         have increased overall efficiency
‘other’ companies deliver primarily       in the sector. USPs and traditional
express parcels, a service not related    mail and parcel services have faced
to universal mail service.                decreases but new services (e.g.
                                          hybrid mail; advertising/direct
The post sector is characterized by       mail) and express companies have
strong change and dynamics. The           shown strong growth.
huge increase in IT-based ways of

8
Main economic and employment trends

Main economic and
employment trends
Value added of the post and tele-                             EU economy (2.3%) as a whole dur-
coms sectors combined amounted                                ing the period 1995-2006. Most of
to €307 bn for the EU-27 in 2006,                             this growth, again, was observed in
with the bulk of value added being                            telecoms. The NMS almost showed
generated by the telecoms sector.                             double digit annual growth of
Value added in post amounted to                               9.6%, three times as much as over-
€59.6 bn in 2004, of which almost                             all GDP growth.
two thirds were generated by
national post activities (USPs) and                           About 40,000 enterprises were
one third by courier activities (Euro-                        active in the post sector, of which
stat, 2008). USPs in the EU showed                            37,000 in courier activities. Alto-
below world average growth in the                             gether, they employed 1.94 mil-
period 1995-2000, but much higher                             lion people or 0.89% of overall EU
growth in 2000-2006. The express                              employment in 2006. Almost 81% of
industry, the main competitor of                              all jobs in the sector were based in
USPs after liberalisation, is one of                          the EU-15. Two thirds of total sector
Europe’s fastest growing sectors,                             employment was in national postal
with a yearly turnover growth of                              activities. Employment in post in
12% in 1998-2003. Although still                              the EU grew with 1.7% annually
small compared to its ‘old’ EU-15                             during the period 2000-2006, and
counterpart, the express indus-                               in the New Member States even
try has risen fivefold in the new                             with 2.7%. Most of this growth was
Member States (NMS) during the                                in courier services, with the express
same period. Value added annual                               sector showing an employment
growth of the post and telecoms                               growth of 13% per year during the
sector together was - with 5.6% -                             period 1998-2003.
more than twice the growth of the

Employment, state-of-play 2006 and changes 2000-2006

 Post and courier                Level 2006             Annual           Share in EU        Change in
 activities                      (times 1,000)          growth                              share
 EU                                           1 944                1.7             100                  0
 EU 15                                        1 718                1.6                 88               -1
 NMS                                            225                2.7                 12               1
Source: Eurostat/TNO. Post and courier services: NACE 64.1.

                                                                                                         9
Post

The majority of firms (97.2%) in the             only 7.7%, respectively 4.8% of all
post and telecoms sector together                employment, even though their
is small firms employing less than               share has been increasing with 2.5
50 employees. 1.9% are medium-                   and 2.3% points during the period
sized firms and only 0.9% are large              1995-2006. Large firms account for
firms with more than 250 employ-                 87.5% of employment, however
ees. However, small firms and                    with a decreasing share.
medium-sized firms account for

Employment trends by job function: shares (2006) and changes in
shares (in%), 2000-2006

 Post and                        Shares, 2006             Changes in shares, 2000-2006
 telecommunications
                                 EU15      NMS   EU       EU15      NMS       EU
 Managers                        9         9     9        -2        1         -2
 Engineers                       8         9     8        1         4         1
 Other professionals             17        18    17       -8        4         -6
 Clerks                          40        47    41       1         2         1
 Service workers                 2         3     2        -2        -4        -2
 Electronic equipment            5         5     5        2         -5        1
 mechanics
 Craft workers. plant            7         5     7        7         -3        6
 operators. drivers
 Elementary                      12        4     11       1         2         1
 occupations
Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey/TNO

The impact of IT on substitution                 of express companies), other pro-
(postal mail by Internet, by e-mail              fessionals (i.e. sales & marketing),
and by mobile messages), on                      engineers and IT professionals, and
e-business (parcels) and on adver-               sorting staff and mail carriers (see
tising obviously affects the skills              Table above: both drivers and ele-
mix. Most jobs in post are in the                mentary occupations). The share
categories ‘clerks’ (administrative              of women in overall employment
and sales personnel in, for exam-                of post and telecoms combined is
ple, post offices and back-offices               36% in the EU-15 and 53% in the

10
Main economic and employment trends

NMS. Almost half of all employees                            were achieved in the decrease of
is younger than 40 years. Low edu-                           the number of employees needed
cated workers in post and telecoms                           to staff the sorting centres as a
are almost all found in post. By                             much larger share of letters and
2000 the percentage of employees                             parcels are sorted mechanically
in USPs without qualification was                            nowadays. Other changes apply
57%. For other operators this share                          to sales & marketing professionals
is with 43% also substantial even                            (decreasing in EU-15 and increas-
though it decreased strongly, down                           ing in NMS), technicians (increasing
from 55% in 1995. Improved and                               in EU-15, strong decrease in NMS)
new technologies have allowed                                and engineers and IT professionals
companies to increase efficiency                             (a gradual upward change in the EU
of their logistics processes dra-                            as a whole).
matically. Most efficiency gains

Employment by gender, age and education: post and telecoms,
2000-2006
                           EU                            EU 15                  NMS
                           Level         Change          Level      Change      Level     Change
 Women                     39            1               36         0           53        -4
 Age < 40                  48            -4              48         -4          54        3
 Age 40 – 50               30            0               30         0           27        -4
 Age > 50                  22            4               22         4           19        1
 Low education             21            -4              25         -2          4         -4
 Mid education             57            2               52         -1          71        -5
 High education            22            2               23         3           25        9
 Entrepreneurs             3             n.a.            2          n.a.        4         n.a.
 Definition                Level %       Total           Level %    Total       Level %   Total
                           2006          change %        2006       change %    2006      change %
                                         2000-2006                  2000-2006             2000-2006
Source: TNO/Alphametrics based on Eurostat Labour Force Survey

                                                                                                   11
Post

Liberalisation and technological          to more-IT intensive production
progress have resulted in a reduc-        and newer services the nature of
tion in the number of staff employed      the business has changed to more
in traditional postal services and a      consultancy-type and technology-
change in the composition of the          driven services, requiring more
labour force, with more part-time         high skilled labour. Basic IT skills
jobs and less full-time jobs. The shift   have become more important for
in job and skills structure reflects a    operators and postmen; advanced
change in technologies (automat-          IT skills have become more impor-
ed sorting, automation, Internet,         tant for technical and professional
IT), markets (packages and freight,       operators. However, IT skills are not
new services) and business mod-           even the most important skills to
els (competition from new com-            be acquired, as will be shown in the
petitors but also from ICT and new        section on scenario implications.
media companies). With the shift

12
SWOT Analysis and Identification of Main Drivers

SWOT Analysis and
Identification of Main Drivers
The Strengths-Weaknesses-Oppor-                ­ ifferentiation was made between
                                               d
tunities-Threats (SWOT) analysis               exogenous drivers (drivers that
and the expert-based search for                form a “given” at sector level)1 and
main drivers of change both yield              endogenous drivers (drivers that
important building bricks for the              can be influenced at the sector lev-
design and further elaboration                 el, for instance by national or Euro-
of the scenarios (see Table SWOT               pean policy-making, or by collec-
and Table Main Drivers). A further             tive effort from within the sector).

SWOT Post Sector

 Strengths                                     Weaknesses
 • Stable demand (might go down in future)     • Old culture incumbents
 • New companies act as initiators             • Universal service provision
 • Dense network                               • Oligopoly (potent players drive the sector)
 • New IT technologies                         •License obligations (entry barrier)
 • Diversification of job profiles             • Enhanced automation leads to lower-
 • Trusted brands                                 quality-lower-paid jobs
 • Universal service provision

 Opportunities                                 Threats
 • Liberalisation                              • Security problems
 • IT                                          • Less interesting jobs due to insecurity
 • New products and services                   • Relocation of enterprises
 • Diversification of products and services    • Increasing regulation – acting as a barrier
 • Growth new EU members and global              to growth if unclear
    growth
 • Transparent, long term and foreseeable
    regulation
 • New forms of cooperation between public/
    private and private/private
 • High skilled job opportunities, need for
    up-skilling
 • Adaptation to new needs
Source: TNO/SEOR

                                               1 With the exception here of Technology, parts of which
                                                  which can be influenced at firm level. For reasons of
                                                  internal consistency of the scenarios, this driver is never-
                                                  theless categorised as exogenous.

                                                                                                          13
Post

Scenarios and implications
for employment
Four future scenarios have been            degree of uncertainty indicating
explored: 1) Snail-mail, 2) Post-all, 3)   possible paths for flexible anticipa-
Post-IT, and 4) Email-round (see Fig-      tion. In constructing the scenarios,
ure). The scenarios depict plausible       those drivers have been selected
and credible futures for the post sec-     that scored high on the criteria
tor in Europe by 2020. Rather than         relevance, impact and uncertainty.
wishful pictures (‘dreams’, ‘­crystal      The relevance criterion was used
ball gazing’) of the future, sce-          to focus and tailor the scenarios
narios are founded on drivers and          to the aim at hand, i.e. drawing
trends observed and are derived in         inferences on the future of jobs
a logical and deductive way, hence         and skills and knowledge needs by
making inferences about plausible          2020. Impact and uncertainty were
future developments. Rather than           used to define distinct directions in
predictions or forecasts based on          the four scenarios which have been
a model, the scenario outcomes             depicted in the figure below, with
in this study are based on expert          the exogenous drivers on the hori-
opinion. The bandwidth between             zontal axis and the endogenous
the most extreme scenarios can             drivers on the vertical axis.
be ­interpreted as indicative for the

14
Driver                  Is this    How        How         Are subs-   Are subs-   Are subs-   Short,      Are subs-   Are subs-
                                                                       driver     relevant   uncertain   tantial     tantial     tantial     medium or   tantial     tantial
                                                                       relevant   is this    is this     impacts     impact      impacts     long run    diffe-      diffe-
                                                                       for the    driver     driver      expec-      expected    expected    impact?     rences      rences
                                                                       sector?    for the    for the     ted         on          on          S M L       expec-      expec-
                                                                       Y/N        sector?    sector?     on the      employ-     new                     ted         ted
                                                                                  Scale      Scale       volume      ment        skills?                 between     between

              Category
                                                                                  0-10       0-10        of          compo-      Y/N                     (groups     sub-
                                                                                                         employ-     sition?                             of) coun-   sectors?
                                                                                                         ment?       Y/N                                 tries?      Y/N
                                                                                                         Y/N                                             Y/N
                                               Income per capita          Y          8          5           Y           N           N        Y   Y   Y      Y           N
                                               and household
                                               Increasing global          Y          5          3           Y           N           N        Y   Y   Y      N           Y
                                                                                                                                                                                 Main drivers of change: Post sector

                                               competition
                                               Emerging                   Y          3          3           N           N           Y        N   N   Y      N           N

              Economic
                                               economies driving
                                               global growth (new
                                               market demand,
                                               especially BRICs)
                                               Advances in IT             Y          5          6           N           N           Y        N   Y   Y      N           N
                                               impacting on
                                               organizational
                                               structures & new
                                               business models
                                               Internet changing          Y         10          0           Y           Y           Y        Y   Y   Y      N           N
                                               production and
                                               consumption patterns
                                               (e-business; etc.)

15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Scenarios and implications for employment

                   innovation
                                               New types of               Y          5          0           N           Y           Y        Y   Y   Y      Y           N
                                               work organization
                                               (teams-based,
                                               sociotechnique, etc.)

     Technology, R&D and product and process
                                               New/additional             Y         10          0           Y           Y           Y        Y   Y   Y      N           N
                                               value-added services
Driver                 Is this    How        How         Are subs-   Are subs-   Are subs-   Short,      Are subs-   Are subs-

16
                                                            driver     relevant   uncertain   tantial     tantial     tantial     medium or   tantial     tantial
                                                                                                                                                                      Post

                                                            relevant   is this    is this     impacts     impact      impacts     long run    diffe-      diffe-
                                                            for the    driver     driver      expec-      expected    expected    impact?     rences      rences
                                                            sector?    for the    for the     ted         on          on          S M L       expec-      expec-
                                                            Y/N        sector?    sector?     on the      employ-     new                     ted         ted
                                                                       Scale      Scale       volume      ment        skills?                 between     between

         Category
                                                                       0-10       0-10        of          compo-      Y/N                     (groups     sub-
                                                                                              employ-     sition?                             of) coun-   sectors?
                                                                                              ment?       Y/N                                 tries?      Y/N
                                                                                              Y/N                                             Y/N
                                     Trade and market          Y         10          0           Y           Y           Y        Y   Y   Y      Y           N
                                     liberalisation
                                     (national level)
                                     EU integration –          Y          5          5           Y           Y           Y        N   N   Y      Y           N
                                     broadening (bigger
                                     domestic market)
                                     Quality of                Y         10          0           Y           N           N        Y   Y   Y      Y           Y
                                     institutions
                                     (judiciary,
                                     transparency,
                                     corruption, business
                                     climate, structural
                                     rigidities)

         Institutional / Political
                                     Labour market             Y         10          3           Y           N           N        Y   Y   Y      N           N
                                     regulation
                                     Environmental             Y          5          3           Y           Y           Y        Y   Y   Y      N           N
                                     regulation
                                     Security and safety       Y          7          5           N           N           Y        Y   Y   Y      N           N
                                     regulation
     Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI.
Scenarios and implications for employment

                        Four future scenarios for the post sector and main underlying drivers

                                                                     Endogenous, sector specific
                                                                     drivers:
                                                                     - Trade and market regulation
                                                                     - Labour market regulation
                                                                     - Quality of institutions
                                                                     Open market, flexible labour
                                                                     market regulation, high quality
                                                                     institutions
                         Exogenous drivers:
                         - Technology:
                            • Value added services    - Moderate       Post-all       Email-round     - F ast
                            • Process innovations     - Moderate                                      - F ast
                            • Internet changing      - Moderate                                      - F ast
                               consumption patterns
                         - Lifestyle                  - Local         Snail-mail         Post-IT      - Virtual community
                                                         community
                         - Income                     - Low                                           -H
                                                                                                         igh
                                                                         Restricted competition,
                                                                         inflexible labour market
                                                                        regulation, low quality of
                                                                                institutions
                        Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI.

                                                                                                                  17
Post

Note that the demographics – age-         through and the quality of regula-
ing (less young, more retirees) – and     tory bodies is low. The demand for
its effects on labour supply have not     traditional and ‘new’ (IT-based) ser-
explicitly been identified in select-     vices is supposed to be stable over
ing the drivers, as demographics          time.
in the time frame of 2009-2020 are
relatively certain (i.e. predictable)     Scenario II: Post-all
and play a role across all scenari-
os. Education and training, which         Post-all depicts a world character-
stricto sensu could be perceived          ised - like in Snail-mail - by mod-
as endogenous factors, have been          erate technological progress, low
excluded. They form - together with       income growth and a community
a number of other strategies and/or       focus. Main difference is that com-
policies - the solutions and hence a      petitive market regulation and high
possible response to the impact of        quality institutions are present,
the scenario on skills, knowledge         with liberalization ensuring a high
and jobs. The key features of the         level of competition. The larger
four scenarios can be described as        corporations face increasing com-
follows:                                  petition from smaller niche players,
                                          both in the traditional postal and
Scenario I: Snail-mail                    in the express markets. Communi-
                                          ties and local presence are major
Snail-mail depicts a world charac-        drivers; the search for further cost
terised by a low level of change.         efficiency as a result of low income
Income growth levels are low,             growth and moderate technologi-
which result in small increases in        cal progress lead to restructuring
demand. The local community is            by incumbents, lay-offs and wage
important and technology does             decreases.
not change very fast. This stimu-
lates ‘old’ patterns of postal services   Scenario III: Post-IT
to survive. Change is also not stim-
ulated by competition, with large         Post-IT depicts a world character-
incumbents not being challenged           ised by fast technological progress
but rather becoming less market-          and virtual communities becoming
driven and inward-looking. The            more important than personal con-
intended next steps in postal mar-        tacts. The express segment is grow-
ket liberalisation are not carried        ing as a result of rising incomes

18
Scenarios and implications for employment

and more Internet shopping, while           new entrants compete heavily.
­traditional postal activities are lag-     Express companies are diversify-
 ging behind. Incumbents are not            ing into other mail segments, with
 very efficient, as competition is          their ability to service items quickly
 restricted and the quality of institu-     giving them significant advantage.
 tions is low. Also companies have          Flexible labour markets and ditto
 consolidated in order to cope with         regulation facilitate this process.
 diminishing market demands and
 to try to increase efficiency, but at
 a prize: making them inflexible and
 unable to change quickly to chang-
 ing market conditions. Often, new
 entrants are absorbed by the
 incumbents. Consumers turn to
 other sectors to provide them with
 the services they require, leaving
 companies overstaffed in various
 departments and forcing them to
 reorganise.

Scenario IV: Email-round

In    Email-round    technological
progress is fast, communities are
going virtual and income develops
favourably. Competition is further
stimulated by liberalisation and
deregulation. Traditional mail is
on the way back, with the number
of deliveries going down, offices
closed down and remuneration of
low educated workers going down.
However, companies grow and
develop many new value added
services, creating new chances for
workers but requiring news skills
and knowledge. Incumbents and

                                                                                19
Post

Implications of scenarios for jobs,
skills and knowledge by job function
Job volume changes. All scenarios                               change is large, but with very differ-
lead to substantial change in the                               ent different institutional settings,
structure of employment and skills                              most importantly the continuation
requirements, with the overall job                              of market liberalisation and deregu-
volume change being negative in                                 lation (Email-round) or a halt (Post-IT).
all scenarios, and with more dynam-                             Although job numbers will go down,
ics in Post-IT and Email-round (see                             the main differences between the
Table). Post-all and Snail-mail are                             scenarios is in skills and knowledge
the scenarios where technology has                              changes. Substantial differences will
least impact. In Post-IT and Email-                             continue to exist between new com-
round the impact of technological                               panies and ‘old’ incumbents.

Implications of scenarios: job volume changes by function, 2009-2020

                                        Snail-mail             Post-all       Post-IT      Email-round
 Managers                                    M                     D             M              M
 Business professionals                       D                    M              I              I
 Operations professionals                    M                     D             M               I
 Sorting staff and mail                      M                     D             D              D
 carriers
 Cashiers                                    M                     M             D              D
 Administrative staff                        M                     D             D              D
 Technicians                                 M                     D             M              M
 Transportation workers                       D                    D             D              D
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI. Note: D = decrease, I = increase, M = maintain.

In all scenarios except Post-all the                            leading in Post-all to a decrease in
number of managers is expected                                  the number of managers. In Email-
to stabilise, however, for differ-                              round, the decrease evens out as
ent reasons. With little competi-                               frequent changes, with high levels
tion managers use their power to                                of diversification, decentralisation,
remain in position, with not much                               new start-ups and concentration,
external pressure to reduce man-                                need to be managed. The number
agement layers. Under high com-                                 of business professionals is expect-
petition such pressure does exist,                              ed to increase in the scenarios with

20
Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function

fast changing market conditions             (sorting: automation; carriers: part-
and technological change. In Post-          time and flex workers). In high com-
IT and Email-round, more business           petition/fast technological change
professional are needed, both to            scenarios, the position of the sort-
generate and execute new high               ing and mail carriers is under pres-
value added products and ideas.             sure, resulting in further job losses.
In Snail-mail and Post-all, there is        This is also because of high substi-
not much need for business profes-          tution effects from other (technol-
sionals. The reason for this is that        ogy-induced) services. Snail-mail
competition is little and techno-           is the only scenario in which sort-
logical change slow. Only in Post-all       ing staff and mail carriers maintain
involving important restructuring,          their position, at least in numbers,
business professionals are more in          with local communities playing an
demand. Demand for operations               important role and competition
professionals which includes ICT            and technological change being
and other engineering profession-           low. A notable divide in wage pay
als but also logistics specialists, is      and conditions exists between old
for most part driven by technologi-         and younger mail carriers. New
cal development and supply of new           companies are hiring a new type
high value added services. In Email-        of distribution worker Active rede-
round, their number increases. A            ployment is one of the main chal-
similar trend is observed in Post-IT;       lenges for the coming years. The
however, with the number of com-            number of sales personnel stabi-
panies reducing, overall demand             lizes in Snail-mail and Post–all in
maintains. In Snail-mail their num-         which local communities play a
ber is stable: as the number of             role, with companies showing local
companies is more stable and since          presence. In Post-all incumbents
infrastructure and operations are           are under pressure to cut costs,
focal, demand for their services can        losing market share in niche mar-
be expected to be stable.                   kets, but winning also market share
                                            because of local presence. In fast
Sorting staff and mail carriers rep-        paced technological growth sce-
resent the bulk of employment in            narios where communities become
the postal sector. Their number is          even more virtually oriented, local
mostly dependent on demand for              presence is not required anymore,
postal services, but also fed by effi-      providing the incentive to com-
ciency measures, i.e. cost reduction        panies to cutting back on costs.

                                                                                   21
Post

Expected changes for administra-         However, the latter is not expected
tive personnel are similar as those      to offset the decrease in demand.
for sorting staff and mail carriers;     Active redeployment of this cat-
regarded mostly by management            egory of workers is one of the main
as overhead, this category is subject    challenges for the coming years.
to job cuts when profits are falling
behind. Also competition and tech-       Identification of emerging
nological change forces companies        competences, skills and
to cut costs. Only in Snail-mail their   knowledge needs
number is expected to maintain.
                                         By taking the scenarios and drivers
The expected growth of the num-          as a starting point, logical infer-
ber of technical staff is expected to    ences (‘guestimates’) of skills and
maintain in high paced Email-round       knowledge needs were made for
and Post-IT, with more value added       each of the identified job functions.
services being offered (requiring        Skills refer to the ability to apply
new equipment and maintenance),          knowledge and use know-how to
but decreasing demand for letter         complete tasks and solve prob-
mail. In Post-all reduction of over-     lems. In the context of the Europe-
head costs is important, stimulat-       an Qualification Framework (EQF),
ing companies to reorganise sort-        skills are described as cognitive
ing and other technical facilities as    (involving the use of logical, intui-
well as to cut costs by economis-        tive and creative thinking) or prac-
ing on maintenance. The demand           tical (involving manual dexterity
for transportation workers under         and the use of methods, materials,
fast paced technological growth          tools and instruments). Knowledge
decreases as part is replaced by         refers to the outcome of the accu-
digital items (Post-IT and Email-        mulation of information through
round). In Snail-mail local presence     learning. It is the body of facts,
requires local delivery and trans-       principles, theories and practices
port to local offices, although trans-   that is related to a field of work or
portation workers remain vulner-         study. In EQF context, knowledge
able to efficiency gains and hence       is described as theoretical and/or
outsourcing (viz. Post-all). USPs try    factual. Competences refer to the
to reduce the number of transport        proven ability to use knowledge,
workers but new start-up com-            skills and personal, social and/ or
panies require transport workers.        methodological abilities, in work

22
Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function

or study situations and in profes-                    elaboration of future skills and
sional and personal development.                      knowledge needs for the purpose
Competences thus defined come                         of this study, both have been fur-
actually close to what is generally                   ther ‘disentangled’ to result into six
understood nowadays as ‘soft skills’.                 clusters of similar and related skills
In EQF context, competences are                       and knowledge needs (see Box).
described in terms of responsibil-
ity and autonomy. In the practical

Overview of skills and knowledge needs identified for each job
function and scenario

 Knowledge (‘hard skills’)
 • Legislative / regulatory knowledge (environmental / safety / labour / contracting);
    Language*; e-skills; Marketing skills; Technical knowledge; Product knowledge; Product
    development
 Social Skills
 • Team working skills; Social perceptiveness (listening / understanding); Communication;
    Networking; Language*; Intercultural
 Problem-solving Skills
 • Analytical skills; Interdisciplinary; Initiative, Multi-skilling; Creativity
 Self-management Skills
 • Planning; Stress and time management; Flexibility; Multi-tasking
 Management skills
 • Strategic & visionary; Coaching and team building; Change management; Project
    management; Process optimizing; Quality management; People skills crucial for collegial
    management style
 Entrepreneurial skills
 • Supplier and customer relationship / understanding; Business understanding /
    development; Trend setting / trend spotting
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI

                                                                                             23
Post

Future skills and knowledge                                    Managers. Developments in the
needs by job function                                          postal sector, even in scenarios with
                                                               strong technological change, are
Across all job functions soft skills                           not as fast as in the telecoms and
will become increasingly important,                            other sectors. Skills and knowledge
especially so for high skilled profes-                         changes are therefore less dramatic
sional job functions. The general                              overall, but still have a substantial
trend of up-skilling across job func-                          impact for managers. For manag-
tions is bound to continue in the                              ers Email-round, with strong tech-
coming years. Due to the changing                              nological change and competition,
nature of jobs, predefined technical                           has the largest skills impact as it
knowledge capabilities will become                             drastically changes the business.
somewhat less important while skills                           Snail-mail with slow technologi-
to adapt and learn new competenc-                              cal change and little competition
es and life-long learning will be put                          departs from current practices in
at a premium. Certain knowledge –                              that the local community plays a
notably e-skills – will become more                            more decisive role in competition
important. Emerging competences                                and managing a company with a
of higher skilled jobs mostly refer to                         community focus requires different
how to learn, communicate, inter-                              techniques than the more tradi-
act and adapt to changing environ-                             tional management skills. Knowl-
ments in addition to a high quality                            edge is a major asset for managers.
education. Emerging competences                                In Post-IT and Post-all regulatory
in medium-educated job functions                               knowledge is vital in successfully
that mostly execute defined tasks                              acquiring other companies. In sce-
and processes refer mostly to spe-                             narios with strong technological
cific knowledge sets that can be                               change technical knowledge and
taught through learning.We illus-                              e-skills will become more influen-
trate the key emerging skills and                              tial, as managers need to keep up
knowledge needs for two of the                                 with developments. In all scenarios
eight distinguished job functions,                             social skills are needed, but with
notably managers, and operations                               different emphasis. Most important
professionals.2                                                is social perceptiveness. In the local
                                                               community scenarios social per-
2 F or a summary of future skills and knowledge needs for
   these and other job categories, see the tables at the end
                                                               ceptiveness is important in ident-
   of this summary. More extensive and detailed accounts       fying what the community wants,
   on skills and knowledge needs can be found in the main
   report, with further differentiations made by scenario.     and align the company ­accordingly.

24
Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function

In scenarios where efficiency and           t­ echnological growth. In Email-
technological development are                round with bottom-up change,
important, social perceptiveness             managers need to be approach-
is directed also internally, towards         able and have a more collegial
employees, as many organisational            management style. In all scenarios
changes will affect them. Manag-             leadership emerges as critical skill,
ers need to be able to communi-              especially leadership for guiding
cate and explain. In scenarios with          changes that are under way.
strong technological change it is
important to understand custom-             Operations professionals. Logisti-
ers in order to foresee develop-            cal efficiency is the prime concern
ments and to identify new oppor-            of operations professionals who
tunities. New opportunities require         are involved in everything related
(more) problem solving skills, most         to planning and distribution sys-
notably analytical skills and cre-          tems, including ICT and web relat-
ativity. These skills are needed in         ed services. In Post-all and Post-IT,
order to understand technologies            where companies focus on reduc-
and to be able to combine them              ing costs to cope with competition,
into business opportunities. Ana-           operations professionals play an
lytic skills are also important in          important role in streamlining the
restructuring. In scenarios with            organisation: improving the effi-
forced reorganizations (Post-all            ciency of processes and systems,
and Post-IT), coaching, team build-         and integrating new services. In
ing and change management skills            Email-round the focus is on inte-
are in high demand. In fast paced           grating new value added services.
scenarios flexibility is key; planning      In Snail-mail characterised by little
skills are more important in sce-           change and little competition,
narios of slow paced technological          companies focus on process reli-
growth. Marketing, business devel-          ability and coherence of business
opment and trend spotting skills            operations with local communities.
are most relevant in scenarios with
strong technological change. In all         E-skills, operational and logistical
scenarios it is crucial that manag-         technical knowledge as well as man-
ers understand their suppliers and          agement knowledge are important
customers.Most diversity occurs             for operational professionals, espe-
in management skills, with strate-          cially in scenarios with strong tech-
gic skills in scenarios with strong         nological change. In scenarios with

                                                                                   25
Post

slow technological progress, social    efficiency). Business development
perceptiveness is an increasingly      and understanding consumers and
required and challenging skill, with   suppliers skills are key in all sce-
the role of local communities being    narios. Trend setting and spotting
vital for the organisation. Network-   are very important in Email-round.
ing skills, communication skills and   All scenarios require some form of
team working skills are especially     new management skills. Strategic
key in scenarios of strong techno-     and visionary skills are especially
logical change, in convincing man-     relevant in Email-round and Post-
agers and business professionals of    IT. As companies economise on
the need to allocate more means to     overhead, quality management
new technologies. Strong techno-       becomes an issue. In dynamic sce-
logical change also requires more      narios change management and
problem-solving skills, including      project management skills are
signalling changes and to acting       required, either to deal with forced
accordingly, as well as analytical     changes or to develop new pos-
skills. Interdisciplinary skills are   sibilities. Moreover in all scenarios
important, as new value added          process optimising skill are highly
services are dependent on many         relevant.
different technologies. Changes in
the business environment require       These examples show that there
the operational professionals to       will not only be a continuous trend
adjust themselves to new circum-       of up-skilling in the coming years,
stances. The most obvious related      but also that skills and knowledge
self management skills are flexibil-   needs – and related gaps and
ity in Email-round (fast changing      shortages – need to be addressed
technologies) and better planning      flexibly, taking in mind the trajec-
skills in Email-round, Post-IT and     tory of strategic change of both the
Post-all (improving ­organisational    firm and the sector.

26
Main strategic choices to meet skill and knowledge needs

Main strategic choices to meet skill
and knowledge needs
In order to meet future skills and        overall longer-term business strat-
knowledge needs, apt and timely           egy, also for SMEs. Some solutions
solutions – referred to here as stra-     will be found within the company
tegic choices - are required (see         itself, e.g. through reorganising
table below). Strategic choices           functions within or between plants,
refer and relate to the medium- and       by offering (re)training trajecto-
longer term, even though emerg-           ries or by active global sourcing
ing skills and knowledge needs in         of personnel. For SMEs and espe-
practice may also apply to the now        cially for micro-enterprises such
and tomorrow. Essential in seeking        longer-term, more strategic human
appropriate solutions is to keep          resource management often will
this longer time perspective in           be more difficult to organise and
mind. Rather than focusing on one         operationalise.
single solution, a set of linked stra-
tegic choices will in most cases be       In order to address the identified
the best strategy to follow. Prioritis-   future skills and knowledge needs
ing both in time (what first, where       in an encompassing and timely
to follow up) and in allocation of        manner, appropriate joint action is
resources (including budgetary            needed by all stakeholders, includ-
focus) followed by further fine-tun-      ing the industry (firms, sector
ing is a clear necessity to guarantee     organisations and social partners),
that skills needs are targeted and        training and education institutes,
solved. Skill needs can be identi-        intermediary organisations and,
fied at various levels, ranging from      last but not least, government at
assessments at the national or even       all levels (EU, national, regional and
European sector level to more pre-        local). Collaboration is needed in
cise assessments at the regional          order to agree on and implement
and company level. Increasingly the       a package of feasible solutions.
identification of skills and knowl-       Timely, targeted and reliable infor-
edge needs but also the search            mation to make decisions – i.e. ade-
for adequate solutions will have          quate monitoring and analysis - is
to become an integral part of an          an essential prerequisite.

                                                                               27
Post

Conclusions

Implications, conclusions and             (higher) education;
re­commendations refer to two
distinct levels: the individual job     	4) Increase flexibility by pro-
function (micro) level focusing on        moting e-learning and blended
available options by job function         learning;
and the more aggregate generic
‘meso-level’ level. They are aimed      	5) Pro-actively re-train and up-
at sectoral stakeholders (firms,          skill employees and those made
social partner, education and             redundant;
training institutes and others)
and policy-makers. The preceding        	6) Train the trainers – keep voca-
table summarises the micro-level          tional training up-to-date;
options and highlights the main
findings by category. At the meso-      	7) Improve the provision of infor-
level a further distinction is made       mation on future skills and train-
between education and training            ing needs to both students and
on the one hand and ‘other’ main          trainers;
conclusions and recommenda-
tions on the other, as follows:         	8) Provide career guidance for
                                          labour market entrants and
Conclusions and                           employees;
recommendations on
education and training                  	9) Actively promote multi-skilling;

	1) Adapt and modernise voca-          	10) Provide special training and
  tional education and training           support to self-employed and
  (VET) and general education sys-        part-time employees;
  tems, but do this nationally rather
  than at the EU level;                 	11) Take special courses and sup-
                                          port for older workers seriously;
	2) Modernise VET by enhancing
  flexibility and addressing emer­      Main other conclusions
  ging training needs by modulari-      and recommendations
  sation;
                                        	1) Improve the image and attrac-
	3) Work towards closer collabo-         tiveness of the sector in view
  ration between companies and            of attracting high-skilled and

28
Conclusions

  technical staff;

	2) Collaborate with all relevant
  stakeholders and intensify co-
  operation: Partnerships for Inno-
  vation and Job creation and
  Social Dialogue;

	3) Recognise prior learning, pro-
  mote skills assessments and their
  validation and stimulate the
  international and intersectoral
  acknowledgement of qualifica-
  tion certificates;

	4) Invest strongly in human capital
  and and enhance the possibilities
  to engage in life-long learning.

                                                29
30
                                                         Snail-mail               Post-all                  Post-IT                  Email-round
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Post

                              1. Employment volume                   M                      D                        M                        M
                                  change
                              2. Skills changes                      3                      9                        15                       19
                                  counted
                              3. Emerging skills needs     Self-management,        Management, Social,        Entrepreneurship,        Entrepreneurship,
                                                                 Social,          Entrepreneurship, Self-       Management,           Management, Social,
                                                           Entrepreneurship           management              Knowledge, Social,       Entrepreneurship,
                                                                                                              Self-management,         Self-management,

     Managers
                                                                                                               Problem-solving          Problem-solving
                              4. Most important         In-house development;    In-house development;            In-house          In-house development;
                                  solutions               recruiting from other    recruiting from other         development;         recruiting from other
                                                                  sectors                  sectors           recruiting from other            sectors
                                                                                                                     sectors
                              5. Most important actors                C                      C                         C                        C
                              1. Employment volume                   D                      M                         I                        I
                                  change
                                                                                                                                                              main players in anticipatory action by scenario

                              2. Skills changes                      2                      9                        12                       22
                                  counted
                              3. Emerging skills needs          Social,           Social, Management,         Social, Knowledge,       Entrepreneurship,
                                                           Entrepreneurship        Entrepreneurship,            Management,              Management,
                                                                                  Knowledge, Problem-         Entrepreneurship,        Self-management,
                                                                                          solving              Problem-solving          Problem-solving,
                                                                                                                                                              Summary of job volumes, skills changes, strategic choices and

                                                                                                                                       Social, Knowledge

     Business professionals
                              4. Most important                Recruit              Recruit, (Re)train        Recruit, (Re)train       Recruit, (Re)train
                                  solutions
                              5. Most important actors                C                      C                         C                        C
1. Employment volume               M                      D                     M                     I
                                           change
                                       2. Skills changes                  4                      9                     16                   18
                                           counted
                                       3. Emerging skills needs    Entrepreneurship,       Management,           Problem solving,      Problem solving,
                                                                  Management, Social     Entrepreneurship,        Management,           Management,
                                                                                            Social, Self-          Knowledge,         Knowledge,Entre-
                                                                                           management           Entrepreneurship,    preneurship, Social,
                                                                                                                    Social, Self-     Self-management
                                                                                                                  management

     Operations professionals
                                       4. Most important               Recruit          Recruit, (Re)train     Recruit, (Re)train    Recruit, (Re)train
                                           solutions
                                       5. Most important actors           C, E                  C, E                   C, E                  C, E
                                       1. Employment volume               M                      D                     D                     D
                                           change
                                       2. Skills changes                  2                      7                     6                     8
                                           counted
                                       3. Emerging skills needs          Social          Self-management        Self-management      Self-management
                                                                                           (stress), Social,    (stress), Problem-    (stress), Social,
                                                                                          Problem-solving      solving, Knowledge       Knowledge
                                       4. Most important         Retrain, Information    Retrain, Recruit,      Retrain, Recruit,    Retrain, Recruit,
                                           solutions                                       Information            Information          Information

     Sorting staff and mail carriers
                                       5. Most important actors        C, E, S, U             C, E, S, U            C, E, S, U            C, E, S, U

31
                                                                                                                                                            Conclusions
32
                                                       Snail-mail                Post-all                  Post-IT                  Email-round
                                                                                                                                                             Post

                            1. Employment volume                   M                       M                            D                    D
                                change
                            2. Skills changes                      3                        9                           8                    8
                                counted
                            3. Emerging skills needs           Social            Social, Problem solving         Knowledge                Knowledge
                                                                                                                (regulatory),            (regulatory),
                                                                                                             Self-management,         Self-management,
                                                                                                              Problem solving          Problem solving

     Sales personnel
                                                                                                             Entrepreneurship         Entrepreneurship
                            4. Most important          (Re)train, Information   (Re)train, Information    (Re)train, Information   (Re)train, Information
                                solutions
                            5. Most important actors          C, E, S, U                C, E, S, U                   C, E, S, U           C, E, S, U
                            1. Employment volume                   M                        D                           D                    D
                                change
                            2. Skills changes                      2                        6                           8                   13
                                counted
                            3. Emerging skills needs       Management,              Problem solving,          Problem solving,         Problem solving,
                                                          Entrepreneurship         Management, Self-         Management, Self-        Self-management,
                                                                                     management                management             Entrepreneurship,
                                                                                                                                        Management

     Administrative staff
                            4. Most important          (Re)train, Information   (Re)train, Information    (Re)train, Information   (Re)train, Information
                                solutions
                            5. Most important actors             C, E                       C, E                       C, E                  C, E
1. Employment volume                M                                 D                                  M                                  M
                                     change
                                 2. Skills changes                   3                                 2                                   9                                  9
                                     counted
                                 3. Emerging skills needs    Self-management,                Self-management,                 Problem solving, Self-             Problem solving, Self-
                                                                   Social,                   Entrepreneurship                 management, Social,                management, Social,
                                                             Entrepreneurship                                                   Entrepreneurship                   Entrepreneurship

        Technicians
                                 4. Most important         (Re)train, Information         (Re)train, Information            (Re)train, Information,            (Re)train, Information,
                                     solutions                                                                                    New courses                        New courses
                                 5. Most important actors            C, E                              C, E                               C, E                               C, E
                                 1. Employment volume                D                                 D                                  D                                  D
                                     change
                                 2. Skills changes                   1                                 2                                   2                                  2
                                     counted
                                 3. Emerging skills needs    Self-management                 Self-management                    Self-management                    Self-management
                                 4. Most important         (Re)train, Information         (Re)train, Information             (Re)train, Information             (Re)train, Information
                                     solutions

        Transportation workers
                                 5. Most important actors          C, E, U                           C, E, U                            C, E, U                            C, E, U
     C=Companies; S=Sectoral organisations, U=trade Unions; E=Education and training institutes; G=Government (EU, Member State, regional, local). Notes: 1) The term ‘skills’ includes
     knowledge (needs). 2) The second row ‘skills changes counted’ refers to the number of skills categories in the most extreme scenario that are up to change. 3) Indicated in bold: skills or
     knowledge sub-categories up for the strongest upgrade need.

33
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Conclusions
Where to find more information?

 The following information can be found on the Europa website under the address:
                    http://ec.europa.eu/restructuringandjobs

The other 17 sector studies on the analysis of the sector’s evolution and future skills needs
                           The Restructuring in Europe report
                            The thematic restructuring forums
               The checklist and the toolkit on restructuring processes
                               The training guide for SMEs
              The national seminars on restructuring in 27 EU countries
                  Official documents related to restructuring policies
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