PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS

 
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Preliminary 2020 Capacity Plan

Denver Public Schools
Planning Department

January 2016
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Table of Contents

   Purpose / Approach                                                       Slide 3

   Executive Summary                                                   Slides 4 – 6

   Forecasting Methodology                                            Slides 7 – 33

   Capacity Calculations & Current Utilization                       Slides 34 – 37

   Aligning Supply of Seats vs. Forecasted Enrollment Demand         Slides 38 – 89

      FNE Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts                      Slides 42 – 47

      NNE Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts                      Slides 48 – 63

      NW Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts                       Slides 64 – 69

      SE Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts                       Slides 70 – 79

      SW Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts                       Slides 80 – 89

   Aligning Supply of ECE-4 Seats vs. Supply of Kindergarten Seats   Slides 90 – 96

   Summary of Capacity Issues                                        Slides 97 – 99

                                                 2
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Purpose of this Document
                                                          Purpose
 The overarching goal of Denver Plan 2020 is to ensure that DPS offers Great Schools in Every Neighborhood.
 With resource constraints and continued growth in the city, it is critical that DPS prioritize bond construction dollars to
  expand access to high quality school seats in priority regions of the city.
 This preliminary 2020 capacity plan will support the 2016 Bond planning process by identifying areas of forecasted
  capacity shortages and prioritizing potential investments to meet demand needs.
 Signal to interested groups where need exists for new schools based on demographic growth

                                                         Approach

 This document will detail the 2020 capacity plan in several areas:
        Methodology for forecasting future enrollment
        Current state of enrollment factors
        Methodology for calculating school capacity
        Sub-regional view of 2020 forecasted enrollment
        Sub-regional supply vs. demand analysis
        Options to increase capacity at school / sub-regional level
        Prioritized list of recommended capacity solutions to meet 2020 forecasted enrollment

                                                               3
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Summary of Capacity Needs & Prioritization

                    4
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Summary of Needs/Prioritization of Projects

                                                                 Year     Seats
    Project (in the order of priority from the sub-committee)                     Priority
                                                                Needed   Needed

Elementary school seats in Gateway / Green Valley Ranch          2017     500        1

Middle school seats in Gateway / Green Valley Ranch              2017     450        1

High school seats in Gateway / Green Valley Ranch                2017     500        1

Elementary school seats in Stapleton North of I-70               2017     500        1

Elementary school seats in Stapleton North of I-70               2018     500        1

High school seats in Stapleton at the Sandoval Campus            2018     500        1

Elementary school seats in Montbello                             2018     500        2

Elementary school seats near Mayfair Park / Hale                 2018     150        2

Elementary school seats near Washington Park West                2019     100        2

ECE Center in the Far Southeast                                 ASAP      150        3

ECE Center at Place Bridge Academy                              ASAP      200        3

ECE Center at Fairview                                          ASAP      200        3

Addition at Pascual LeDoux ECE Center                           ASAP       50        3

                                  TOTAL                                  ~8,000

                                                          5
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Map of High Priority Capacity Projects

                                         Estimate of > $15 Million

                                         Estimate of < $15 Million
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Forecasting Methodology

           7
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Process for Residing Student Population Forecasting

                                                             Process

     Starting point:                                                              Adjust up/down for
                              Adjust up/down for        Adjust up/down for
 Historical enrollment                                                            cohort comparison         Final 2020 Forecast
                              enrollment trends         residential factors
   trends/averages                                                                       rates

Timing                   DPS Planning issues forecasts each spring looking out 5 years.

                         Forecasts are created by grade level by census block group. There are three grade levels that are
Forecast Level           forecasted: elementary, middle, and high school. There are 481 census block groups that are
                         forecasted for each of the grade levels.

                         The primary data points that are used for the forecast are updated each spring to incorporate the latest
Feedback Loop
                         findings.

                         This approach looks at the students residing in an area attending any DPS school, not the local
Impact of Choice
                         boundary/zone school. Choice behavior occurs outside of this forecast.

                                                                 8
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Defining the Student Population in DPS Forecasts

           Residents             Choice-Out to Other DPS          Choice-In from Other                Attendees
                                        Schools                     Neighborhoods

    Focus of DPS forecasts

 DPS Planning forecasts the number of students who reside in a given census block group in a given year and will attend
  any DPS school. This forecast is agnostic of the choice behavior of this students, meaning that whether a student decides
  to attend their boundary school or choice-out to a school across town, they are counted for in the forecast.

 One primary reason for not incorporating choice into a 5-year forecast is the possibility that programs or boundaries may
  change between now and 5 years out. For conservatism, this approach also allows for the assumption that all students
  will attend their boundary/zone school.

 The forecasted population must attend a DPS school. It does not include students who may live in the area but attend
  private school, another district, or are home schooled. It also does not include students living outside of Denver who may
  want to choice-in to DPS.

                                                             9
PRELIMINARY 2020 CAPACITY PLAN - DENVER PUBLIC SCHOOLS PLANNING DEPARTMENT JANUARY 2016 - BOARDDOCS
Overview of DPS Planning Regions

                                        Regional Structure Methodology
                                           Primarily set based on high school
                                            feeder patterns
                                           Also divided by major geographic
                                            features (highways, rivers, etc.)

                                   10
Overview of DPS Planning Sub-Regions

                                       Sub-Regional Structure Methodology
                                          Each region is divided into several sub-
                                           regions that tie to a set of school
                                           boundaries or neighborhoods
                                          This report will forecast 2020 elementary
                                           enrollment and capacity needs at the sub-
                                           region level

                                  11
Defining the Forecast Areas: Census Block Groups

                               SW062
                                                   SW055

                                                                          SW067

                             SW063             SW054

                                     Godsman Elementary

    DPS forecasts to the Census Block Group, which are created by the U.S. Census Bureau. There are 481
    block groups in the City and County of Denver. The average area for a block group in Denver is 0.32
    square miles.

    Rationale for Forecasting at the Census Block Group level:
     Better aligns data points with US Census Bureau and private GIS / demographic data providers
     More accurate due to 481 block groups as opposed to less than 100 elementary school boundaries
     More flexible due to the ability to assign a block group to different elementary schools, middle schools,
      and high schools

    This report will forecast 2020 middle and high school enrollment and capacity by blockgroup assigned to
    DPS middle and high school boundaries.

                                                           12
Summary of the Approach to Forecasting
                                       Inputs: Major Data Points

 Historical October      Birth Rates         Capture Rates           Residential     Yield Rates
 Count Enrollment                                                   Development

                                             Assumptions

                      Cohort Comparison       Future Growth         Housing Impact

                                   Resulting Forecast by Level

                               Block Group           Boundary / Regional
                                                   13
Data Sources for Major Data Points used in Forecasting

                                                Major Data Points

 Historical October          Birth Rates           Residential            Capture Rates              Yield Rates
 Count Enrollment                                 Development

  Name and age of         Date of birth by     Permitting data for       Percentage of            Number of DPS
 student by address         latitude and      every residential and       student-age          students per housing
 by year since 2000.        longitude of            commercial          population (5-17           unit by type:
                       residence for every    construction project    years old) residing in        affordable,
   Audited by the        child born in the      in development or      Denver versus the       apartment, attached,
     Colorado          state of Colorado by   approved by the City      percentage that              detached
   Department of          birth certificate    of Denver Planning         attend DPS
     Education                                        Office

                                     Source and Summary Description

                                                          14
Major Data Point: DPS K-12 Students Residing in Denver
Source: Colorado Department of Education

                                                         26% Increase since 2000
                                                                                                           79,942
                                                                                      73,972 76,274 78,746
                                                                 67,487 69,523 71,871
  63,669 63,929 65,844 66,015 65,606 64,840 64,843 64,716 65,122
    2000

           2001

                  2002

                         2003

                                2004

                                       2005

                                              2006

                                                        2007

                                                                    2008

                                                                           2009

                                                                                  2010

                                                                                         2011

                                                                                                2012

                                                                                                       2013

                                                                                                              2014

                                                                                                                     2015
                                                     Key Observations
 Enrollment, regardless of place of residence, has increased 29% since 2000.

 After eight years of relatively minimal growth, since 2008, DPS has added nearly 16,000 more Denver
  residents as students.

                                                               15
Major Data Point: Denver Birth Rates
Source: Colorado Department of Health & Human Services

                                        Births per Year Based on Kindergarten Class
    10,455
                                             10,255
                 10,156                                   10,120
                             9,974

                                                                           9,642
                                                                                      9,535
                                                                                                                       9,362
                                                                                                 9,222      9,202

                                                                                       2016-17
       2010-11

                   2011-12

                              2012-13

                                               2013-14

                                                            2014-15

                                                                            2015-16

                                                                                                  2017-18

                                                                                                             2018-19

                                                                                                                        2019-20
                                                         Kindergarten Class

                                                           Key Observations
 How to read the chart: Births are shown as a five year cohort. The “2015-16” count were children born between
  October 1, 2009 and September 30, 2010. This number includes any child born to a parent residing in Denver at the
  time of birth, but not babies that were born to parents residing outside of the city.

 Numerous national research organizations have published studies on the decline in births due to the recession.
  Specifically, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that the recession caused births to drop by at
  least half million people annually. Colorado state birth rates have declined 8.2% versus before the recession.

                                                                      16
Major Data Point: Capture Rates
Source: 2000 and 2010 US Census; October Count Enrollment
Capture Rate: Percentage of student-age population residing by block group that attends DPS versus other options, such as
private school, neighboring districts, or home schooling. For example, if 100 people age 5-17 reside in a given census block
group and 75 attend DPS, the capture rate is 75%. DPS relies on the census to have an accurate number of school-age
students residing in the City of Denver.
                           2010 K-12 Capture Rates

                                                                                              High rates of private school or
                                                                            Capture Rate      neighboring district. Potential
                                                                            < 46%             exists to recapture, though will
                                                                                              be difficult.
                                                                            Capture Rate      Growth potential by recapturing
                                                                            46%-70%           from other options.
                                                                            Capture Rate      Approaching the ceiling, but
                                                                            71% - 80%         growth opportunities remain.
                                                                                              Capture rates approaching or
                                                                            Capture Rate
                                                                                              at the ceiling. Minimal further
                                                                            > 81%
                                                                                              growth from increasing capture.

                                                            17
Major Data Point: Capture Rates
Source: 2000 and 2010 US Census; October Count Enrollment
Capture rate improvements between 2000 and 2010 were greatest among middle and high schools,
which have traditionally been lower than elementary school rates
              District-Wide Capture Rates                                   Key Regional Improvements
90%
                        86%                       2000                               Southeast Region
                                                  2010            90%                                                     2000
85%                                83%
                    82%                                           85%                                                     2010
           81%
80%                                                               80%
                                77%
        76%                                                                                74%
                                                                  75%
75%                                                                          70%                        70%
                                               72%
                                                                  70%
70%                                                               65%                               61%                60%
                                                                         59%             59%                        58%
                                                                  60%
65%                                         63%
                                                                  55%
60%                                                                         All      Elementary     Middle           High
          All      Elementary    Middle      High
                                                                        Near Northeast                    Northwest
                                                                  90%                             90%
                  Key Observations                                85%                             85%
                                                                                   79%
 Please note that the above figures reference capture            80%                             80%
  rates in 2010. Based on new American Community                  75%                             75%               71%
  Survey data, the overall DPS capture rate has                   70%                             70%
                                                                            66%
  increased another 2%.                                           65%                             65%
                                                                                                              60%
                                                                  60%                             60%
                                                                  55%                             55%
                                                                            High School                      High School

                                                         - 18 -
Major Data Point: Yield Rates
Approach to Translating Residential Development in Student Yield

                                                      Process

 City of Denver        Units are separated into        DPS identifies comparable   DPS applies the yield per
 provides permitting   single family detached, for-    units. For single family    unit to the number of units
 information.          purchase condo, for rental      detached units, DPS looks   by type to determine the
                       apartments, and affordable      at neighboring homes. For   total number of forecasted
                       housing.                        apartments / condos, DPS    students that will result
                                                       looks at similarly priced   from the development.
                                                       and sized units from
                                                       across the city.

                                                       19
Major Data Point: Yield Rates
How is a student yield calculated?
 Only Pre-K – 12 students attending a DPS school count towards the yield

                                                                                                       Count in
                                                                                  Age       # Kids
                                                                                                        Yield?
  No kids
                                                             3 year old             1          1           -
                                                             Pregnant
3rd Grader                                                                          2          1           -
Kinder                                                                              3          2           -
                                                             No kids
                                                                                 Pre-K         0           0
  No kids                                                    2 year old          Kinder        1           1
                                                             Pregnant
                                                                               1st Grader      1           1
1 year old                                                   3rd Grader        2nd Grader      1           1
                                                             1st Grader
                                                                               3rd Grader      2           2
5th Grader                                                   6th Grader &
2nd Grader                                                                     4th Grader      1*          0
                                                             4th Grader in
3 year old                                                   Private School    5th Grader      1           1
Pregnant
                                                                               6th Grader      1*          0

                                                                              * Private school does not count in
                                                                              DPS yield

                        6 DPS students
                                                   = .60 Yield
                           10 homes
                                                  20
Major Data Point: Residential Development
Source: City of Denver Planning Office
                                             There continues to be
                                              high levels of
                                              development in the city,
                                              with Stapleton and the
                                              FNE in particular.

                                             Based on historic
                                              findings, many of the
                                              NW projects will yield
                                              incrementally fewer
                                              students due to
                                              replacing existing
                                              families and many new
                                              residents being young
                                              professionals or empty
                                              nesters.

                                             Note that “scrapes” or
                                              “pop-tops” are not
                                              captured in the data on
                                              this chart due to lower
                                              levels of data visibility.

                                    21
Major Data Point: Residential Development
Source: City of Denver Planning Office
There are two different types of residential development occurring in Denver’s housing market.

 Type           Location                  Impact on Student Enrollment

 Urban Infill   Stapleton, Lowry, Green   High. Development is not replacing existing housing and is targeted at
                Valley Ranch, Gateway     younger families. Estimated 9,900 units remaining across the 4 areas.
 Scrapes /      Northwest Denver, City    Lower. Projects sometimes replace an existing family due to housing
 Pop-Tops       Park North, Platt Park,   price increases, which has been seen in NW Denver. SE Denver has
                Baker, SW Denver, Five    seen rising enrollment levels due to projects occurring on houses
                Points                    formerly owned by empty nesters, coinciding in neighborhoods with
                                          strong DPS schools.

                                                       22
Major Data Point: Change in Home Prices
Source: City of Denver Assessor’s Office 2010 and 2015

                   5 Year Price Per Square Foot Change
                                                                                  This map shows the 5
                                                                                  year price per square
                                                                                  footage difference for
                                                                                  all home types. The
                                                                                  neighborhoods in red
                                                                                  are gentrifying.

                                             Legend
                                                 Less than $25 per Square Foot

                                                 Between $25 and $100
                                                 per Square Foot

                                                 More than $100 per Square Foot

                                        23
Residential Re-Development Impact on Student Yields
One of the major impacts from gentrification is the change in housing stock. In many Denver neighborhoods, there are
numerous city blocks that have converted from single-family detached units to attached units, also known as townhomes or
condominiums.

                          2005                                                           2014
             Residential Units = 22                                         Residential Units = 48
             Students Attending DPS = 13                                    Students Attending DPS = 4
             Student Yield = 0.59                                           Student Yield = 0.08

                                                           24
Major Data Point: Residential Development Impact on Student Yields
Source: City of Denver Planning Office; Official October Count Enrollment
                                      Student Yields: Single Family Detached

                             1.00
                             0.90                                                    0.83
                                                                              0.80
                             0.80                                    0.74
                                                             0.70
                                                     0.64                     0.78    0.80
                             0.70
                                                             0.58      0.69
                             0.60   0.53     0.54
                                                     0.50
                             0.50                            0.41    0.42     0.43   0.43
                                                     0.40
                                    0.36     0.36
                             0.40
                             0.30
                                             0.28
                             0.20   0.25
                             0.10
                             0.00
                                    2009    2010    2011     2012    2013     2014   2015
                                       Stapleton       Green Valley Ranch       Denver

   In planning seats, DPS projects Stapleton and Green Valley Ranch single-family yields 20-40% higher than Highlands
    Ranch and other family-targeted neighborhoods, which is an aggressive assumption.
   For Denver County the student yield for all single family detached residential units is 0.43. Yield data for Stapleton
    and Green Valley Ranch has been nearly double that rate.
   While DPS-wide 84% of school-age population attends DPS, roughly 87% of Stapleton-area elementary children
    attended DPS schools. This contrasts with other affluent communities such as Cory Merrill, where the capture rate
    across grades is as low as 63%.
Major Data Point: Impact of Housing Prices on Student Yield Rates
Source: City of Denver; Geo-coded October Count
Housing prices in Denver have experienced among the highest % increases in the country over the past few years.
Between July 2014 and July 2015, Colorado’s home prices increased 10.4%, the second highest in the country. For
several neighborhoods in particular that have experienced large housing price increases, DPS Planning adjusts yield
assumptions to guide enrollment forecasts.

                       Yield (#
   Sales Price                         Units in Price                                Yield (#          New Units
                     Students per
   Group                                  Group                    Unit Type       Students per       Planned or in
                         unit)
                                                                                       unit)          Construction
   Less than
                          0.50             4,260
   $200,000                                                        Affordable          0.33               1,020
   $200,000 to
                          0.21             7,442                   Apartments          0.07              17,051
   $349,999
   $350,000 to                                                     Condominiums        0.07               11,389
                          0.15             4,857
   $499,999
   $500,000 to                                                     Townhomes           0.16               3,357
                          0.23             2,281
   $649,999
                                                                   Single Family
   $650,000 to                                                                         0.43               5,376
                          0.27              942                    Detached
   $799,999
   Greater than
                          0.28             1,178
   $800,000

  As home prices move up the student yield drops by
  half. The bounce back in the $500,000 and above is
  due to Stapleton, which has a large share of homes
  sold at these price points and have the highest yields in
  the metro area.

                                                              26
Summary of Impacts on Enrollment Forecast
                                            Inputs: Major Data Points

 Historical October           Birth Rates             Residential            Capture Rates              Yield Rates
 Count Enrollment                                    Development

 High enrollment         Declining birth rates     Different types of        Increased              Increasing home
 growth at all levels    across the city point     gentrification of older   performance of DPS,    prices are leading to
 but recent decline in   to elementary             neighborhoods has         including secondary    lower yield rates.
 kindergarten point      enrollment declines       historically led to       schools has led to     This is being partially
 towards flat            starting in 2014 with     declining rates of        increasing rates of    off-set by empty
 enrollment levels in    possible MS declines      students. City            student-age            nester families
 many neighborhoods      by 2020.                  permitting shows          population attending   moving out of the
 through 2020                                      more conversions          DPS.                   area being replaced
                                                   are planned.                                     by younger families.

                                                         Overall
        School performance is attracting more families to attend DPS, particularly due to secondary school
        strengthening. However, residential cost increases, shrinking birth rates, and conversion of housing to
        units with lower student yields is likely to result in minimal growth over the forecast horizon.

            Suggests enrollment decreases        Suggests minimal
                                                             27   increases           Suggests enrollment increases
Assumptions Used to Forecast Enrollment

                                        Data Points

    Cohort Comparison                  Future Growth             Housing Impact

   Is performance of one               (Pulled in from the      (Pulled in from the
   grade level improving vis-          previous section)        previous section)
   à-vis another? For
   instance, were families             Is elementary            Is the housing stock
   previously leaving DPS              enrollment               changing? Is
   because of lower                    increasing, leading to   housing more
   performance, but now are            larger future            designed for younger
   staying?                            cohorts?                 families than older
                                                                ones due to smaller
                                                                square footage?

                                Insights Guiding Assumptions

                                               28
Assumptions: Age of City & County of Denver Population City Wide
Source: 2015 Data from Colorado State Demographer’s Office

As data from the State of Colorado Demographer’s Office shows, there are declines in the number of children residing in
Denver as they age. Increases do not happen until students hit 18+ due to college and other post-K-12 opportunities.

                                                           29
Assumptions: Housing Impact & Economic Growth
Source: Denver Business Journal, Denver Post, Money Magazine, Mortgage
Professional America, 9News

                                       30
2020 District-Wide Forecast: Overview of Growth Factors

                Factor               Growth                            Comments

     High Residential Construction                  The are still 9,000+ residential units planned for
      Neighborhoods (Stapleton,                     Stapleton, Lowry, and GVR/Gateway. 5,000 of
      Green Valley Ranch, Lowry)                          which are single-family detached.
                                                     There are 20,000 residential units planned for
                                                       Denver, outside the three aforementioned
     Other Residential Development
                                                   developments. However, only 300 are single-family
                                                           detached. See slide 21 for map

                                                    Over the last five years the total number of births
              Birth Rates
                                                        dropped from 10,455 to 9,642 per year.

                                                   Capture rates have reached a ceiling in elementary
                                                    school. Still small gains projected for Middle and
            Capture Rates
                                                    High schools. See slide 17 for the 2010 Capture
                                                                         Rate Map.
                                                   Gentrification is the biggest downward pressure on
             Gentrification                        future enrollment growth. Discussed in more detail
                                                                    starting on slide 22.

           Likely to drive further        Minimal enrollment                      May reduce
           enrollment growth              growth expected                         enrollment levels

                                              31
Resulting Forecast: Guide to Forecast Calculation Process and Worksheet
Starting point:
                             Adjust up/down for          Adjust up/down for           Adjust up/down for
Historical MS
                             elementary                  residential factors          cohort comparison           Final 2020 Forecast
enrollment trends /
                             enrollment trends           (previous section)           rate of ES : MS
averages

                                  # of MS Students Residing                  Average Reside
                                                                                             MS : ES      2014 ES   2020 MS 2020 MS
  Census Block
                      2000     2010     2011      2012     2013     2014     5-Year   3-Year  Ratio       Growth    Forecast :ES Ratio

  080310154003         16        10      14        16       17          17     15       17       31%         21          19        38%

  080310005011         17        17      15        10       9           13     13       11       10%         5           18        20%

  080310005024         42        31      41        38       44          38     38       40       97%         4           34        97%

  080310154001         7         19      18        16       13          12     16       14       35%         14          15        31%

  080310003021         11        5       10        10       13          10     10       11       22%         -4          11        23%

  080310003024         7         11      6         6        8           9       8        8       35%         -3          8         30%

US Census Block              October Count enrollment for reside         3 and 5-year averages         2014 Growth for        2020 Ratio of
  Group Code                     and attend any DPS school                  of reside counts                 ES               MS students to
                                                                                                                                   ES
                                                                                    Ratio of MS students to ES
                                                                                                              Resulting 2020
                                                                                                          Forecast for MS reside
                                                                                                        attending any DPS school

                                                                   32
Resulting Forecast: Mapping Census Block Forecasts to School / Regional
Levels

                  DPS    DPS Planning ES Boundary MS Boundary HS Boundary
 Census Block   Planning Sub-Region
                 Region

 080310154003     NW        NW-G      Centennial    Skinner     North HS

 080310005011     NW        NW-E        Brown       Skinner     North HS

 080310005024     NW        NW-E        Brown       Skinner     North HS

 080310154001     NW        NW-G      Centennial    Skinner     North HS

 080310003021     NW        NW-E        Edison      Skinner     North HS

 080310003024     NW        NW-E        Edison      Skinner     North HS

                                              Each of the 480 census block groups within the City and
                                               County of Denver are geocoded to one or more elementary
                                               schools, middle schools, and high schools.
                                              DPS Planning is able to combine the blocks based on the
                                               education level that is being forecasted

                                                     33
Capacity Calculations & Current Utilization

                    34
Capacity Calculation Methodology

 Counted all Teaching Stations (TS) within each school. A Teaching Station is any space 585 square feet
  or larger in which instruction can occur (with some exceptions).

 Number of Teaching Stations X 25 students = Capacity

 Capacity calculation of a facility identifies the optimum number of students that the building should hold.

 Capacity figure does not take into account the exact program being offered in the facility, so it has to be
  considered an estimate.

 DPS has schools that operate above capacity and others that struggle to operate at 80% of capacity due
  to differences in program model, staffing, class size, etc. all impact the way a school fits in the building.

                                                     - 35 -
DPS Elementary & K-8 Schools with Utilization Rates Above 90%

                                   36
DPS Secondary Schools with Utilization Rates Above 90%

                                   37
Aligning Supply of Seats vs. Forecasted
          Enrollment Demand

                  38
Comparison of Forecasted Enrollment Demand vs. Supply of Seats
                                         For each sub-region at the elementary level, 2020
                                          forecasted demand is compared to 2020 planned
                                          capacity to determine any excess or shortage of seats.
                                         For each sub-region combined to middle and high school
                                          boundaries, 2020 forecasted demand is compared to
                                          2020 planned capacity to determine any excess or
                                          shortage of seats.
                                         Boundary and zone schools are included in capacity,
                                          while city-wide options like DSA or GALS are excluded
                                          because they serve a broad geographic area.

         Enrollment Demand                                     Supply of Seats

         +             =                                                  +
  2015

  2015       Growth            2020                      Current               Planned
 Actuals     Factors         Forecast                    Capacity              Capacity

                                            39
Since the 2012 bond, DPS has added 1,000 more students than seats

             E-12 Enrollment                                       Key Observations
                                91,429
                                                   The 2012 Bond program invested close to $200
                       90,150                       million in added capacity, totaling roughly 6,000
                                                    seats.
            87,398                                 Over the same time frame, DPS enrollment has
                                                    increased by 7,000 additional ECE-12 students.

   84,424                                          DPS has increased capacity in a cost-effective
                                                    manner. This includes reopening schools that
                                                    were formerly closed, sharing campuses to
                                                    maximize the capacity utilization in some areas,
                                                    and investing in smaller expansions of existing
                                                    sites as opposed to entirely new facilities.
   2012     2013        2014    2015
                                                   DPS has also invested mill levy funding in
                                                    community partners to expand pre-school
                                                    offerings, particularly in areas where there is
                                                    minimal DPS capacity to expand classes.

                                         - 40 -
Wide use of shared campuses has provided options close to where need is,
and significantly increased utilization of existing facilities at a low cost.

                                     - 41 -
Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts

             Far Northeast
             Near Northeast
               Northwest
               Southeast
               Southwest

                   42
2020 FNE-A Elementary School Forecast

            Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   7,000                                                                   FNE-A
                          6,030      5,791
   6,000       5,785

   5,000

   4,000

   3,000

   2,000

   1,000
                                                 239
        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity Need

                                                       Observations
 Currently Montbello has the largest class sizes in the district, with some grades above 28 students per room.
  Additionally, there are more students overflowed between FNE elementary schools than anywhere else in DPS.

 There is additional development scheduled to be completed in the eastern portion of FNE-A, by 2020 and DPS Planning
  is forecasting an additional 245 students will be generated from this new housing.

 A new elementary school will be needed in the sub-region, targeting the eastern portion of this sub-region, closer to
  Pena Boulevard.
  Forecast:                                                  Capacity needed

                                                            43
2020 FNE-B Elementary School Forecast

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   4,500                                                                 FNE-B
                          4,034      3,654
   4,000
   3,500
               3,127
   3,000
   2,500
   2,000
   1,500
   1,000
     500                                        380
       0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity Need

                                                    Observations
 Along with Montbello, Green Valley / Gateway has the largest elementary class sizes in DPS.

 Residential development in the sub-region is forecasted to yield 907 more elementary students by 2020.

 A new elementary school will be needed in the area because schools are already at or near capacity and will not be
  able to accommodate the forecasted number of students.

  Forecast:                                                Capacity needed

                                                           44
2020 FNE Middle School Forecast

          Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   5000
   4500                  4,389       3,927
              3,967
   4000
   3500
   3000
   2500
   2000
   1500
   1000
                                                 462
    500
      0
              2015      2020        2015    Remaining
            Students   Forecast    Capacity   Need

                                                   Observations
 Currently FNE MS are operated at 99% capacity, creating large class sizes and a lack of scheduling flexibility to utilize
  shared spaces and have optimal grade sizes.

 Similar to elementary, residential growth in the Gateway and Green Valley Ranch neighborhoods along with the
  matriculation of larger elementary schools to middle school will increase forecasted enrollment by 422 students by 2020.

 Although the Evie Denis campus and East Quad campus have been able to support recent growth, a middle school will
  be needed east of Peña Boulevard to support future residential growth.
  Forecast:                                                   Capacity needed

                                                             45
Far Northeast High School Context Setting: Number of FNE students choosing
 FNE schools or staying in district is increasing

                                    9th Grade Enrollment in FNE High Schools

                                                                              1,120

                                                    1,061
                                                                  1,049

                                        943

                                       2012         2013          2014        2015

 Improved options in Far Northeast Denver has led to a higher % of students attending DPS and in particular, a high
  school in the Far Northeast. A a result, 9th grade FNE enrollment has increased 19% since 2012.

 The HS capture rate in 2010 was 78%, which DPS Planning believes to have increased and will continue to increase due
  to improved options in the region.

 Three additional programs opened in 2015 or 2016: KIPP FNE HS, STRIVE Prep – RISE HS, and Legacy Options, will
  further increase capture rates and lead to further enrollment increases in the region.

                                                             46
2020 FNE High School Forecast

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    6000
                          5,399       4,806
    5000       4,686

    4000

    3000

    2000

    1000                                          593

        0
                2015      2020       2015    Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need

                                                       Observations
 FNE high schools are operating at a high capacity utilization rate as a result of increased % of students attending a
  regional school as opposed to leaving the district or choicing-in to other regions of DPS.

 As the larger elementary and middle school cohorts matriculate, the high school population is forecasted to increase by
  713 students.

 A new high school will be needed on the Green Valley Ranch side of the enrollment zone in 2017 to support growth.

  Forecast:                                                  Capacity needed

                                                             47
Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts

              Far Northeast
             Near Northeast
               Northwest
               Southeast
               Southwest

                   48
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Enrollment likely to remain flat

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    5,000                           4,710                                  NNE-A
    4,000      3,856     3,937

    3,000

    2,000

    1,000
                                                -773
        0
                2015    2020        2015 Remaining
   -1,000     Students Forecast    Capacity Need

   -2,000

                                                      Observations
 Minimal forecasted growth due to the gentrification of several neighborhoods in NNE-A.

 Thousands of housing units are being constructed in the River North area and will continue along Brighton Boulevard as
  part of the future National Western redevelopment. Based on similar units built over the past few years, these will
  generate a relatively low number of students.

 Barrett Elementary will close at the end of the 2015-16 school year due to low enrollment. There will continue to be
  excess capacity forecasted in this area through 2020.
  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                            49
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    3,000                                                                  NNE-B
                                     2,578
    2,500
               2,196      2,179
    2,000

    1,500

    1,000

      500
                                                -399
        0
                2015    2020        2015 Remaining
     -500     Students Forecast    Capacity Need
   -1,000

                                                      Observations
 Housing price increases have led to declining enrollment in many parts of Park Hill for elementary grades.

 As a result of assumed further housing price increases, enrollment is forecasted to remain flat in the area through 2020.

 Currently there is excess capacity in the area, and the opening of ROOTS Elementary in 2015 furthers the amount of
  excess capacity.

  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                            50
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Enrollment will remain flat

            Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   1,200                             1,093                                 NNE-C
   1,000        977        951

     800

     600

     400

     200
                                                -142
        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
    -200      Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
    -400

                                                     Observations
 Due to higher-end residential development that yields fewer students, DPS expects student population in the Capitol
  Hill/Cherry Creek neighborhoods to decrease.

 With the recent renovations at Bromwell, there will not be a need for additional capacity by 2020.

  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                            51
2020 Elementary School Forecast: High growth expected north of I-70 as rest of
Stapleton development is completed

            Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   4,000                  3,752      2,891                                 NNE-D
   3,500
               3,138
   3,000
   2,500
   2,000
   1,500
   1,000                                         861

     500
        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity Need

                                                    Observations
 Stapleton has been DPS’s fastest growing neighborhood over the past 10 years. As mentioned previously in this report,
  the number of students that are yielded from a home in Stapleton exceed that of any other neighborhood in the district.

 Going forward, there are 4,700 additional housing units to be constructed in Stapleton by 2022, yielding an additional
  2,300 students. Most of that development will occur north of I-70.

 Inspire Elementary will open in 2016 and be seeded at the Sandoval campus. An additional elementary school will be
  needed north of I-70 in 2018 (see details on ensuing slides).
  Forecast:                                                 Capacity needed

                                                            52
Context Setting: Historic and Forecasted Stapleton Elementary Enrollment and
Capacity

4500

4000

3500

3000                                                                                                                  1,326
                                                                                                    903      1,155
                                                                       282      403       615
2500                                                         107
                                                     8
2000

1500
                                                            2,452     2,479     2,437    2,384     2,342     2,299
1000                                               2,221                                                              2,236
                                         1,937
                               1,665
            1,160     1,345
 500

     0
            2009      2010      2011     2012      2013      2014     2015      2016      2017     2018      2019      2020
                                           South of I-70       North of I-70      Capacity

        Due to the construction of nearly 500 homes per year in the neighborhood, DPS has opened a new elementary
         school every two years to meet enrollment needs.
        In 2016, Inspire Elementary will open. DPS Planning forecasts an additional elementary school will also need to be
         opened in 2018 to meet continued needs. An 8 th elementary school is likely needed in 2021 or 2022, though the
         timing of that capacity need is likely to be outside the range of the forecast used in this report.

                                                                53
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Moderate growth expected near Buckley
Annex

            Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   3,000
                                     2,465
                                                                            NNE-E
                          2,527
   2,500
               2,164
   2,000

   1,500

   1,000

     500
                                                  62
        0
                2015      2020       2015    Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need

                                                  Observations
 The forecasted elementary growth of 363 elementary students in NNE-E is due primarily to the development of Buckley
  Annex and the former CU Denver Health Center at 9th and Colorado.

 Utilization rates for elementary schools in this sub-region will remain high through 2020 due to low choice-out rates from
  high-performing schools.

 100-125 seats in this neighborhood will relieve classroom constraints.

  Forecast:                                                  Capacity needed

                                                             54
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Enrollment will remain flat

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   1,800
              1,622      1,588     1,387                                 NNE-F
   1,600
   1,400
   1,200
   1,000
     800
     600
     400
                                               201
     200
       0
               2015      2020       2015 Remaining
             Students   Forecast   Capacity Need

                                                   Observations
 DPS expects the student population in the NNE-F sub-region to remain flat through 2020.

 An elementary newcomer center opened at Isabella Bird Community School in 2015-16 in an effort to reduce
  overcrowding at Place Bridge Academy’s newcomer center.

 See slide 90 for recommendations on a new ECE center in this neighborhood.

 Forecast:                                                Capacity needed

                                                          55
2020 Middle School Forecast: High growth north of I-70 in Stapleton will drive
growth in the Greater Park Hill Stapleton Enrollment Zone

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   2500
                         2,294      2,035

   2000       1,816

   1500

   1000

    500
                                                259

       0
              2015      2020       2015    Remaining
            Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need

                                                      Observations
 As matriculation of larger elementary cohorts to middle school occurs along with future growth from residential
  development continuing north of I-70, the forecasted population is expected to increase by 478 students.

 In order to accommodate the future growth, a new middle school may be needed or an expansion of an existing facility
  in the zone may be needed to meet growth.

 Note that in October 2015, 130 MS students from the zone attended nearby options Odyssey or DSA.

  Forecast:                                                 Capacity needed

                                                            56
2020 Middle School Forecast: Population will remain flat

        Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    1200
                                    1,036
    1000
     800
     600
     400       330        308
     200
       0
    -200       2015      2020       2015 Remaining
             Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
    -400
    -600
    -800                                      -728
   -1000

                                                        Observations
 Higher housing costs in Capitol Hill, Congress Park, and Cherry Creek neighborhoods have caused student population
  residing in the area to fall in recent years. DPS Planning does not expect the student population to recover.

 Forecast:                                              Capacity not needed

                                                         57
2020 Middle School Forecast: Growth will remain flat

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    2000

                                      1,609
    1500
               1,292      1,300

    1000

      500

                                                   -309
        0
                2015      2020        2015    Remaining
              Students   Forecast    Capacity   Need
     -500

                                                    Observations
 The middle school population in the Near Northeast Middle School Enrollment Zone will remain flat.

 With the introduction of McAuliffe II at Manual, there will not be a need for additional middle school capacity in the area.

  Forecast:                                                 Capacity not needed

                                                              58
2020 Middle School Forecast: Moderate growth expected from the Lowry
neighborhood

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    1800                  1,654      1,533
    1600       1,541
    1400
    1200
    1000
      800
      600
      400
      200                                         121
        0
                2015      2020       2015    Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need

                                                      Observations
 As the elementary population matriculates and new residential development is completed in the Lowry neighborhood,
  the middle school population is forecasted to increase by 113 students.

 Capacity at the middle school grades will remain tight, but does not include regional options like DLS or DSA.

 43% of students that live in the Hill, Denver Green, and Place boundaries choice-out to other middle schools. There is a
  26% choice-in rate from outside of these boundaries to the three schools, which results in a net choice-out rate of 17%
  or 260 students.
  Forecast:                                                 Monitor Capacity

                                                            59
2020 High School Forecast: Modest growth

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   2500
                                    2,269

   2000                  1,957
              1,864

   1500

   1000

    500

       0                                         -312
              2015      2020        2015    Remaining
            Students   Forecast    Capacity   Need
    -500

                                                     Observations
 The high school population is forecasted to increase by a modest 93 students, or 5%, in the East High School
  boundary.

 Currently East has nearly 1,200 seats available for choice-in. Any further growth in the boundary will allow for East to
  maintain their program size without any further capacity risks.

  Forecast:                                                Capacity not needed

                                                             60
2020 High School Forecast: Growth will remain flat through 2020

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    2000                             1,860

    1500       1,326      1,321

    1000

     500

                                               -539
       0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
    -500

   -1000

                                                  Observations
 The Manual High School boundary population in 2020 is expected to remain steady with no new capacity needed.

 A new middle school will be introduced in the area at Manual HS to create a high-performing feeder to Manual.

  Forecast:                                              Capacity not needed

                                                           61
2020 High School Forecast: High growth in Stapleton-area

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   1400
                        1,204       1,053
   1200

   1000

    800
              681
    600

    400

    200                                         151

       0
              2015      2020       2015    Remaining
            Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need

                                                    Observations
 Forecasted population in the Northfield High School boundary is expected to increase by 523 students as Stapleton
  area students matriculate to older grades and more residential development is completed.

 An additional 500 seats will be needed at the Sandoval campus to support the build-out of Northfield HS and to meet
  growing boundary enrollment needs from the Stapleton development.

 As highlighted earlier, roughly 50% of seats at Northfield are serving FNE students. Since there is a 2020 forecasted
  deficit of 593 seats in FNE by 2020, this Sandoval expansion will further allow Northfield to serve FNE students.
  Forecast:                                                 Capacity needed

                                                            62
2020 High School Forecast: Moderate growth

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   2500
                                   2,082
   2000                 1,871
             1,718
   1500

   1000

    500

                                               -211
       0
              2015      2020       2015    Remaining
            Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need
   -500

                                                    Observations
 The George Washington High School boundary is forecasted to increase by 153 students, or 9%, due to residential
  development and the matriculation of the student population in the Lowry neighborhood.

 There is adequate capacity at GW to support this growth.

 Forecast:                                              Capacity not needed

                                                             63
Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts

              Far Northeast
              Near Northeast
               Northwest
                Southeast
                Southwest

                   64
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   1,400                                                                  NW-A
                                    1,200
   1,200
   1,000
                758        765
     800
     600
     400
     200
       0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
    -200
              Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
    -400
                                                -435
    -600

                                                         Observations
 Although there are almost 5,000 residential units planned in the area, a majority of the projects are high-end
  condominium and apartment buildings. When looking at similar units in the area, these projects have led to low student
  yields. It is anticipated that the 5,000 new units will yield roughly 100 additional students.

 Existing capacity at area schools is adequate enough that if student yields were much higher, there would be available
  space for all incremental students.

  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                           65
2020 Elementary School Forecast: As gentrification continues, student
population growth will remain flat

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
  10,000                                                                 NW-B
                                                                         To G
   8,000                           7,525

   6,000       5,249    5,225

   4,000

   2,000

        0
                2015    2020     2015 Remaining
   -2,000     Students Forecast Capacity  Need
                                         -2,300
   -4,000

                                                     Observations
 The gentrification of the Highlands neighborhood that has spread throughout the Northwest region has driven out low-
  income families for higher-income families moving into higher-end units. In 2015, NW elementary enrollment declined
  by 4.4%, or 209 students.

 Further declines are possible due to continued development, housing price increases, and declining birth rates.
  Redevelopment in the Sun Valley neighborhood will be offset by declining enrollment in other neighborhoods of NW-C.

  Forecast:                                              Capacity not needed

                                                           66
2020 Middle School Forecast: Changes in housing stock will cause growth to
remain flat

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   1600
                                    1,389
   1400
   1200                 1,100
              1,057
   1000
    800
    600
    400
    200
                                                -289
       0
              2015      2020       2015    Remaining
    -200
            Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need
    -400

                                                    Observations
 In the Northwest Middle School Enrollment Zone, the population is forecasted to show minimal growth after declining by
  1.3% from 2014 to 2015.

 Similar to elementary schools in the area, housing prices and housing stock changes in the area may flatten potential
  growth. If enrollment does exceed the forecast, there is forecasted 26% excess capacity in the area in 2020.

  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                            67
2020 Middle School Forecast: Population declines due to changing housing
stock

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   1200
                                    1,030
   1000
              891
                         822
    800

    600

    400

    200
                                                -208
       0
              2015      2020       2015    Remaining
    -200    Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need
    -400

                                                      Observations
 Forecasted enrollment at the middle school level is expected to remain flat due to changes in housing stock along with
  housing price increases.

 If enrollment levels were to exceed forecasted levels, there is still 30%+ excess capacity at the Lake Campus to support
  the increased enrollment.

  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                            68
2020 High School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady through 2020

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    3000
                                     2,506
    2500
               1,994      1,958
    2000

    1500

    1000

     500

        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
    -500      Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
                                             -548
   -1000

                                                     Observations
 Population in the North High School boundary is forecasted to remain relatively steady through 2020.

 North HS, Strive, and CEC will have enough capacity to support the area even if actual enrollment exceeds the
  forecast.

  Forecast:                                              Capacity not needed

                                                           69
Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts

              Far Northeast
              Near Northeast
                Northwest
                Southeast
                Southwest

                   70
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

            Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   2,000                             1,875                                 SE-A
               1,589      1,585
   1,500

   1,000

     500

                                                -290
        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
    -500

                                                   Observations
 SE-A has recently experienced growth from the redevelopment of older, smaller homes into larger homes as well as
  very strong performance from area schools. Several schools in the area have large class sizes made up entirely of
  boundary students.

 Looking forward, growth rates are expected to slow due to birth rate declines and high capture rates.

 Capacity should be closely monitored. If housing stock changes continue or birth rate impacts are not felt due to
  housing turnover to younger families, then capacity may need to be added.
  Forecast:                                                 Monitor Capacity

                                                            71
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    2,500                            2,321                                  SE-B
    2,000      1,912      1,903

    1,500

    1,000

      500
                                                 -418
        0
                2015    2020        2015 Remaining
     -500     Students Forecast    Capacity Need

   -1,000

                                                    Observations
 The percentage of student-age population attending DPS is likely at a ceiling given private options available.

 Enrollment growth is forecasted to remain steady in the sub-region with available capacity to support any increases that
  may exceed forecasted levels.

  Forecast:                                                Capacity not needed

                                                            72
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Growth will remain flat

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   3,000                                                                  SE-C
               2,613      2,680      2,507
   2,500

   2,000

   1,500

   1,000

     500
                                                173
       0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity Need

                                                 Observations
 Joe Shoemaker school opened in 2015 to address over-crowding at Holm and Samuels.

 This sub-region has among the highest mobility rates in the city, which causes enrollment challenges in the area due to
  the TNLI models and large class sizes at area schools.

 One option to address over-capacity would be to build additional ECE capacity at the Shoemaker campus to serve area
  students and relieve facility pressure on Holm and Samuels. See slide 89 for more details on ECE shortages in the
  area.
  Forecast:                                                 Capacity needed

                                                            73
2020 Middle School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    700
                          583         600
    600       562

    500

    400

    300

    200

    100
                                                  -17
       0
              2015      2020        2015    Remaining
   -100     Students   Forecast    Capacity   Need

                                                     Observations
 Minimal forecasted growth, but capacity will be monitored through the availability of non-boundary seat offers in the
  SchoolChoice process. New development at the former Gates rubber site may result in additional students.

 Choice-out rates are expected to remain high for students living in the western portion of the Grant boundary due to the
  proximity to new high performing options in the West and Southwest Enrollment Zones.

 The current choice-out rate for 6th graders living in the Grant boundary is 59% and the choice-in rate for 6th graders to
  Grant Beacon is 37%, which results in a net choice-out rate of 22%.
  Forecast:                                                  Monitor Capacity

                                                             74
2020 Middle School Forecast: Growth will remain flat through 2020

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   1400
                                    1,225
   1200
                        1,005
   1000       947
    800
    600
    400
    200
                                                -220
       0
              2015      2020       2015    Remaining
    -200    Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need
    -400

                                                      Observations
 Growth in the Hamilton boundary will be primarily fueled by an aging student population and a slight increase in capture
  rates.

 In addition to Hamilton, Highline Academy SE K-8 has additional middle school capacity that serves this area, though
  there are very few options beyond these for far SE residents.

 Hamilton MS is projected to enroll 993 students in 2016, which would be the largest MS in the district and would create
  very tight capacity for the school. Monitor further growth to ensure choices as well as adequate capacity.
  Forecast:                                                 Monitor Capacity

                                                            75
2020 Middle School Forecast: Population will remain steady

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   1200
                                    1,100
   1000

    800       717        773

    600

    400

    200
                                               -327
       0
              2015      2020       2015    Remaining
    -200    Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need
    -400

                                                     Observations
 The middle school population is forecasted to increase by 56 students due to changes in housing stock in the University
  Hills neighborhood and increased capture rates with improved performance at Merrill.

 With three middle school programs in the area along with regional options, no extra capacity will be needed by 2020.

  Forecast:                                              Capacity not needed

                                                           76
2020 High School Forecast: Population will remain steady

          Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   2000
                                  1,755
   1500

   1000       818       818

    500

      0
             2015      2020       2015 Remaining
   -500    Students   Forecast   Capacity Need

  -1000
                                              -937
  -1500

                                                     Observations
 South High School has the smallest boundary enrollment of any DPS high school. The popularity of South has led to
  high choice-in rates from other areas in the city.

 Boundary population is expected to remain relatively flat through 2020 and any growth that exceeds the forecast would
  easily be served at area options.

  Forecast:                                              Capacity not needed

                                                           77
2020 High School Forecast: Modest population growth

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   2000
                                    1,684
   1500                 1,411
              1,288

   1000

    500

                                                -273
       0
              2015      2020       2015    Remaining
            Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need
    -500

                                                   Observations
 Boundary population in the Thomas Jefferson High School boundary is forecasted to grow by 10% by 2020.

 The primary drivers of enrollment are the matriculation of larger elementary and middle school grades along with
  increased capture rates of residents attending TJ.

 There is adequate capacity at TJ to handle the forecasted growth, though there are no other DPS options in this part of
  the city for residents.

  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                            78
Off-Track Segments: SE off-track students lack Pathway options in their region

                                                                              2015 SE Students by Segment

                                                                                                              Number of
                                                                                     Segment
                                                                                                              Students
                                                                           9th – Slightly off track              174
                                                                           9th – Far off track                    58
                                                                           9th / 10th – Far off track             19
                                                                           11th / 12th – Slightly off track      170
                                                                           11th / 12th – Far off track            65
                                                                           Total Off-Track                       486

                                                                                   * Please see Appendix for segment
                                                                                   explanation

                                                      Observations
 Due to limited school options in the SE, most students attend either GW, TJ, or South HS, all schools with more than
  1,000 students. In those schools, 486 students residing in SE Denver are off-track for graduation and may be better
  served in an alternative pathway school.

 There are currently no programs in the SE to serve off-track students, with students being forced to travel near
  downtown to access a pathway program

 A pathways program is needed to serve area residents, and capacity would be needed to house the program.

  Forecast:                                                  Capacity needed

                                                             79
Sub-Regions Supply / Demand Forecasts

              Far Northeast
              Near Northeast
                Northwest
                Southeast
               Southwest

                   80
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Flat enrollment, but tight capacity

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   7,000
              6,387      6,393      6,456
   6,000

   5,000

   4,000

   3,000

   2,000

   1,000
                                                 -63
       0                                                                     SW-A
              2015    2020          2015 Remaining
  -1,000    Students Forecast      Capacity Need                             and E

                                                       Observations
 As housing prices increase in the area, there is evidence that enrollment may decline as families are relocating out of
  the area, supported by a 2015 decline of 205 students versus 2014. This combined with lower birth rates, is driving a
  forecast of flat enrollment through 2020.

 One development to monitor is the redevelopment of the Westwood neighborhood that has the potential to cause
  fluctuations in enrollment as families are temporarily relocated.

 Monitor enrollment levels in the area since current capacity is among the tightest in the city.
  Forecast:                                                   Monitor Capacity

                                                              81
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

           Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   6,000                                                                     SW- B
                                    5,011                                    and C
   5,000      4,538      4,524
   4,000

   3,000

   2,000

   1,000
                                                -487
       0
              2015    2020          2015 Remaining
  -1,000    Students Forecast      Capacity Need

                                                   Observations
 Enrollment has declined in these neighborhoods due to affordability of housing.

 From the 2014-15 school year to the 2015-16 school year, the number of elementary age students residing in the area
  decreased by 81 students.

 Going forward, enrollment is forecasted to remain relatively flat. If enrollment exceeded the forecast, there is close to
  500 seats of excess capacity in the area.

  Forecast:                                                 Capacity not needed

                                                             82
2020 Elementary School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

            Forecast & Capacity Comparison
   1,200                                                                    SW-D
   1,000                              948

     800        717        715
     600

     400

     200
                                                 -233
        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
    -200      Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
    -400

                                                      Observations
 Student population in the far southwest is forecasted to remain relatively flat through 2020.

 In 2015, Kaiser boundary enrollment declined 7.8% and Grant Ranch declined 6.8%, driven primarily by birth rate
  declines and housing changes.

 If enrollment increased beyond the forecast, there is adequate capacity to serve the area.

  Forecast:                                                Capacity not needed

                                                             83
2020 Middle School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    4000
                                     3,615
    3500       3,232      3,182
    3000
    2500
    2000
    1500
    1000
     500
                                                 -433
        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
    -500
              Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
   -1000

                                                      Observations
 The West Middle School Zone has experienced continued enrollment growth as a result of stronger programs in the
  area, which will continue in 2016 with the opening of Kepner Beacon and Strive Prep Kepner, along with the
  reassignment of DSST College View into the zone.

 Housing price increases will be a netting factor against the capture rate increases in the area.

 While capacity is tight as a %, it is expected to be adequate for any enrollment gains by 2020.

  Forecast:                                                Capacity not needed

                                                             84
2020 Middle School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    2500

    2000                             1,877

    1500                  1,282
               1,241
    1000

     500
                                                -595
        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
    -500      Students   Forecast   Capacity Need

   -1000

                                                    Observations
 Due to the 2016 school openings of Bear Valley International School and DSST Henry, capture rates are expected to
  improve as residents attend DPS instead of neighboring districts.

 Any enrollment growth through 2020 will be served at available capacity in the area.

  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                            85
2020 Middle School Forecast: Enrollment will remain flat

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
     300
                                      258
     250
     200
     150        127        142

     100
       50
        0
                2015      2020       2015    Remaining
      -50     Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need
     -100
                                                  -116
     -150

                                                     Observations
 Middle school age student population is forecasted to remain flat and additional capacity will not be needed with a
  current excess of seats at Grant Ranch K-8.

  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                            86
2020 High School Forecast: Enrollment will remain steady

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    2500
                                     2,182
    2000       1,889      1,886

    1500

    1000

     500

        0                                        -296
                2015      2020       2015    Remaining
              Students   Forecast   Capacity   Need
     -500

                                                    Observations
 There is minimal forecasted growth in the West High School Enrollment Zone through 2020.

 Capture rate increases will be offset by redevelopment of the existing housing stock in these neighborhoods.

  Forecast:                                              Capacity not needed

                                                           87
2020 High School Forecast: Growth will remain flat

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    3500
    3000                            2,872

    2500       2,188      2,132
    2000
    1500
    1000
     500
                                                -740
        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
    -500      Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
   -1000

                                                     Observations
 There is minimal forecasted growth in the Lincoln High School boundary through 2020.

 Any additional enrollment gains are able to be served at area schools.

  Forecast:                                              Capacity not needed

                                                           88
2020 High School Forecast: Enrollment growth will remain flat

         Forecast & Capacity Comparison
    3000
    2500                             2,380

    2000
               1,467      1,498
    1500
    1000
     500
        0
                2015      2020       2015 Remaining
    -500      Students   Forecast   Capacity Need
   -1000
                                                -882
   -1500

                                                    Observations
 In the Kennedy boundary, enrollment levels are expected to remain flat through 2020.

 Enrollment gains in the area are able to be served at area schools.

  Forecast:                                               Capacity not needed

                                                            89
Aligning Supply of ECE-4 Seats vs. Supply
          of Kindergarten Seats

                   90
ECE Capacity Methodology

There are four primary types of pre-school that serve four-year-olds in Denver

   Pre-School at a
                                      Pre-School at DPS              Pre-School at Private
  Community Partner                                                                                  In-home Care
                                                                          Providers
                                    Tuition set/waived based
Tuition set/waived based                                                                           Often tuition-free
                                            on income               Primarily charge tuition
        on income

                                                           By sub-region, compare the ratio of 4 year olds without
         Total ECE-4 students served in a                   access to tuition-based programs served versus 5 year
        community site or at a DPS location                 olds served.
                                                           Incorporate FRL rates to assess the ability that families
                           versus                           are able to attend tuition-based providers.

                                                           Areas with high FRL K-5 rates and low ECE-4 to
            Total kindergarten students                     kindergarten ratios need additional ECE capacity.
                                                           Areas with low FRL K-5 rates or with high ECE-4 to
                                                            kindergarten ratios do not need additional ECE capacity.

                                                               91
Ratio of ECE-4 Students to Kindergarten Students

                                    92
Far Southeast ECE Capacity Needs

                    ECE-4                                           Kindergarten

  Total students served in a community site or at a DPS location: 177
  Total kindergarten students: 308
  Outcome: Only 57% of kindergartners in this area were likely able to attend a pre-school
  program. With an overall K-5 FRL rate of 68%, many families are unlikely to be able to attend a
  tuition-based program.
  Potential Additional Seats: 90 – 120 seats

                                                 93
Place Bridge/McMeen/Ellis ECE Capacity Needs
                    ECE-4                                           Kindergarten

   Total students served in a community site or at a DPS location: 185
   Total kindergarten students: 384
   Outcome: Only 48% of kindergartners in this area were likely able to attend a pre-school
   program. With an overall FRL rate of 76%, many families are unlikely to be able to attend a
   tuition-based program.
   Potential Additional Seats: 150 – 200 seats

                                                 94
Fairview Area ECE Capacity Needs
                    ECE-4                                           Kindergarten

   Total students served in a community site or at a DPS location: 169
   Total kindergarten students: 312
   Outcome: Only 54% of kindergartners in this area were likely able to attend a pre-school
   program. With an overall FRL rate of 93%, many families are unlikely to be able to attend a
   tuition-based program.
   Potential Additional Seats: 100 – 120 seats

                                                 95
Pascual LeDoux Area ECE Capacity Needs

                    ECE-4                                            Kindergarten

   Total students served in a community site or at a DPS location: 354
   Total kindergarten students: 678
   Outcome: Only 52% of kindergartners in this area were likely able to attend a pre-school
   program. With an overall FRL rate of 95%, many families are unlikely to be able to attend a
   tuition-based program.
   Potential Additional Seats: 50 – 100 seats, due to potential for other schools to use additional
   classrooms to serve ECE at more locations

                                                  96
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