Prosperity in Central and Eastern Europe - Austria - 2016 A Legatum Institute Prosperity Report - Erste Group

Page created by Melvin Lopez
 
CONTINUE READING
Prosperity in Central and Eastern Europe - Austria - 2016 A Legatum Institute Prosperity Report - Erste Group
Prosperity in Central
and Eastern Europe -
Austria
2016

A Legatum Institute Prosperity Report
Prosperity in Central and Eastern Europe - Austria - 2016 A Legatum Institute Prosperity Report - Erste Group
The Legatum Institute

The Legatum Institute is an international think
tank and educational charity focused on
understanding and measuring prosperity.
Over the past ten years, the Prosperity Index
team has acquired a vast amount of experience
in the design of indices - the collection,
standardisation, and presentation of data – and
their application in both the policy and business
fields.
                                                    The third edition of the          The tenth edition of the   The first edition of the
The Legatum Prosperity Index™, the Institute’s      Africa Prosperity Report          Legatum Prosperity         UK Prosperity Index
                                                                                      Index™
signature publication, measures prosperity as
more than just the accumulation of material
wealth, but also the joy of everyday life and the
prospect of an even better life in the future.
                                                                               The first edition of the
The Prosperity Index team has extensive                                        Central and Eastern
experience in using indices to inform practical                                Europe Prosperity
recommendations in helping people lead more                                    Report
prosperous lives.
Prosperity in Central and Eastern Europe - Austria - 2016 A Legatum Institute Prosperity Report - Erste Group
The Legatum Prosperity Index™

                            The Legatum Prosperity Index™ is a global measure of prosperity
                            – wealth and wellbeing – across 149 countries globally, of which
                            16 are in Central and Eastern Europe.
                            The Index measures prosperity through the annual assessment
                            of each country’s performance across 104 variables that form
                            the nine ‘pillars’ (or sub-indices) of prosperity: Economic Quality,
                            Business Environment, Governance, Education, Health, Safety &
                            Security, Personal Freedom, Social Capital, and Natural
                            Environment
                            • The Index combines both objective and subjective data,
                              measuring not only how prosperous a country is, but how
                              prosperous its citizens feel.
                            • 2016 is the Index’s tenth edition. With a decade of data, the
                              Index is a unique global benchmarking tool, providing
                              governments with an insight into where they have delivered
                              for their citizens, where they have not, and why.
                            • Tracking performance over time, particularly in the context of
                              peer nations, the Index is also a powerful tool for citizens to
                              hold their governments to account.
Prosperity in Central and Eastern Europe - Austria - 2016 A Legatum Institute Prosperity Report - Erste Group
Central and Eastern Europe Prosperity Rankings

                                                                          Global Rankings (1st to 149th)
      CEE PI                              Economic   Business                                    Safety & Personal   Social
                  Country       PI Rank                        Governance Education Health                                     Environment
       Rank                                Quality Environment                                   Security Freedom    Capital
         1         Austria        15         11         20          15         11        25         9        23        15           12
         2        Slovenia        20         30         60          38         23        35        14        20        22           1
         3         Estonia        26         27         26          20         29        55        43        32        71           7
         4     Czech Republic     27         26         30          34         24        27        27        28        78           32
         5         Poland         34         37         45          36         33        47        21        39        85           46
         6        Slovakia        36         46         49          48         30        46        23        43        86           34
         7          Latvia        37         34         34          39         32        82        42        57        94           16
         8        Lithuania       42         45         55          37         43        80        45        41        125          33
         9         Croatia        43         61         89          44         37        56        31        38        113          30
        10        Hungary         47         52         56          46         38        50        38        46        114          93
        11        Romania         50         65         41          64         47        85        46        48        97           61
        12       Macedonia        53         93         44          62         40        66        37        69        119          85
        13         Bulgaria       57         73         71          78         39        91        48        66        111          41
        14      Montenegro        58         96         52          59         52        69        35        54        117         125
        15          Serbia        66         101        102         70         46        86        40        59        127         105
        16         Albania        74         107        67          71         76        49        68        60        106         121
Prosperity in Central and Eastern Europe - Austria - 2016 A Legatum Institute Prosperity Report - Erste Group
Austria strongest deliverer of prosperity in CEE

                                               How much prosperity is delivered with wealth?
                                  90
                                                                                                                                       The only developed country in Central
                                              Germany +13%               Switzerland +13%                                              and East Europe, Austria also leads in
                                  80                                                                                                   both prosperity and wealth.
   Prosperity Index Score, 2016

                                                                   Austria + 11%                                                       Ranked at 15th globally in prosperity,
                                  70
                                                                                                                                       Austria also has the 15th biggest positive
                                                                                                                                       prosperity surplus out of the 149
                                  60                                                                                                   countries we cover.
                                                    CEE

                                                                                                                                       Over-delivery: shows us that prosperity
                                  50                                                                                                   is more than just income or wealth, and
                                                                                                                                       that some countries, like Austria, are
                                                                                                                                       able to deliver more prosperity given
                                  40
                                                                                                                                       their wealth levels.

                                  30                                                                                                   Big prosperity surpluses are the true
                                       0   20.000         40.000          60.000      80.000   100.000   120.000   140.000   160.000   success stories.
                                                                           GDP per capita (PPP $), 2016
Prosperity in Central and Eastern Europe - Austria - 2016 A Legatum Institute Prosperity Report - Erste Group
Austria’s prosperity is broad based…

                                      Economic
                                       Quality
                                      85
                                      80                         Business
              Environment
                                      75                       Environment
                                      70
                                      65
                                                                                      People in Austria enjoy a safe and free
                                      60
                                                                                      society, high standards of education and
         Social                       55                                              health services, stable economic structures
                                                                         Governance
         Capital                      50                                              with low level of unemployment and near
                                      45                                              absence of poverty.

           Personal
                                                                     Education
                                                                                      Despite recent local corruption scandals,
           Freedom
                                                                                      Austria in general enjoys a highly transparent
                                                                                      and stable political system, its clean and
                          Safety                                                      effective governance is the envy of most of
                                                      Health
                        & Security                                                    its neighbours to the east.
                            Austria        Visegrad            Germany
…   but Austria underperforms other wealthy countries in prosperity

             To begin with, among countries at similar level of wealth, Austria has the smallest prosperity
             surplus in 2016.
…   and has lagged behind its neighbours in growing prosperity

                                         105

                                         104
            Prosperity Score, 2007=100

                                         103

                                         102

                                         101

                                         100

                                          99
                                               2007    2008     2009    2010     2011     2012    2013      2014   2015    2016

                                                                 West Europe    CEE     Austria   Germany

                                         Moreover, while prosperity has been growing in CEE and Germany, it stagnated in Austria,
                                         creating a sense of stasis.
Social Capital decline is behind underperformance

                                            Austria's Social Capital dropped by 8% since 2007
                                     102
                                                                                                                 Austria’s overall Social Capital score – which
                                                                                                                 measures the strength of cohesion and
                                     100
                                                                                                                 networks in society – dropped by 8% over
    Social Capital score, 2007=100

                                                                                                                 the past decade.
                                      98

                                      96
                                                                                                                 It is rare for social capital to experience such
                                                                                                                 large movements – Austria’s drop was the
                                      94
                                                                                                                 10th largest across the 149 countries covered
                                                                                                                 by the Prosperity Index.
                                      92

                                      90
                                                                                                                 Excluding Austria’s Social Capital sub-index
                                           2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016
                                                                                                                 would raise its 2016 global ranking from 15th
                                                                                                                 to just shy of the top 10, at 12th place.
What is Social Capital?

                          One of the Prosperity Index’s nine sub-indices – and a central one.
                          The Prosperity Index defines Social Capital into Four categories:

                          Trust: A central component of social capital is “trust”, which we can think
                          of as encompassing social trust and institutional trust. The first refers to
                          how widely and easily citizens trust each other. The second refers to the
                          degree to which citizens trust public institutions.

                          Family and Community: The CEE experience shows us that higher levels
                          of trust between immediate family and friends can compensate for low
                          levels of wider trust. We can refer to this component as “family and
                          community”, which measures the strength of informal networks connecting
                          families and friends together.

                          Civic Engagement: Social networks can also work through more formal
                          networks, such as volunteering and other charitable activities. We can
                          think of this component as “civic engagement”, which measures the
                          strength of formal bonds between citizens.

                          Civic Participation: Finally, we can think of the links between citizens and
                          public officials as the “civic participation” component. This measures how
                          involved and connected citizens are with their governing group.
Economic not social change driving Social Capital decline

                                                                  Austrians are growing increasinly tolerant                                                                                Sluggish economic growth is straining social capital

                                                                                                                                                   % people with affirmative answer
 % of people thinking Austria a good place for...

                                                    90%                                                                                                                               0,8                                                                                  4
                                                                                                                                                                                               69%                                                                         3
                                                                                                                                                                                      0,7
                                                    80%                                                                                78%
                                                                                                                                                                                      0,6                                                                                  2
                                                                                                                                       74%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Annual % growth
                                                    70%                                                                                68%                                                                                                                                 1
                                                                                                                                                                                      0,5                                                                              48%
                                                    60%     53%                                                                                                                                                              45%                                           0
                                                                                                                                                                                      0,4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -1
                                                    50%                                                                                                                               0,3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -2
                                                             51%
                                                    40%                                                                                                                               0,2                                                                                  -3
                                                                                                                                                                                      0,1                                                                      8%          -4
                                                    30%
                                                            34%
                                                                                                                                                                                       0                                                                                   -5
                                                    20%                                                                                                                                     2007   2008   2009   2010    2011    2012     2013   2014    2015       2016

                                                    10%                                                                                                                                                    Annual GDP per capita growth (%, right hand axis)
                                                    0%                                                                                                                                                     Sending financial help to other household
                                                          2007      2008   2009     2010   2011   2012   2013   2014      2015     2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Donating to charitable cause
                                                                    Ethnic minorities      Immigrants     LGBT groups

                                   Contrary to recent headlines about the rise of populism and                                                           A sluggish economy both necessitates and limits inter-
                                   heated debate on immigration, tolerance in Austrian society has                                                       household financial support and charitable donations. It is these
                                   been rising, becoming the most socially liberal country in CEE.                                                       two components that account for the overall decline in Social
                                                                                                                                                         Capital.

                                   Survey responses from Gallup World Poll: nationally representative sample of ~1,000 respondents conducted annually.
Social Capital: Austria compared with Norway

     Diffenrence in Social Capital Patterns between Norway and Austria

                                              Helping
                                              stranger
                                             20%
                                                                                              Both having high level of Social
                          Donating           15%
                                                                    Trust in                  Capital, Norway (6th) and
                                                                     police
                                                                                              Austria (15th) have very similar
                                             10%
                                                                                              patterns in most indicators
                                             5%
                                                                                              under the sub-index.
        Can rely on                          0%                                Treated with
      family or friends                                                           respect
                                             -5%                                              It is only in Donating and
                                                                                              Sending financial help to other
                                                                                              households, that the two
                                                                           Making
             Volunteering
                                                                           friends            countries are significantly
                                                                                              divergent.       In        both
                    Sending financial help               Voicing                              measurements, Norway is 17
                     to other household                  opinions
                                                                                              percentage points ahead of
                                                                                              Austria.
Social Capital can be improved independently of economy

                                                       The higher a country’s initial level of social capital, the smaller the economic shock
                                            0%
                                                                                                                                                     Social capital is affected by economic
  Economic Quality Score, peak to trough

                                                                                                                                                     forces, but isn’t a function of those forces
                                           -2%
                                                                                                                                                     alone.
                                           -4%
                                                                                                                                                     It softens the blow of economic disruption,
                                                                                                                                      Austria
                                                                                                                                                     and can be improved independently of
                                           -6%
                                                                                                                                                     economic forces.
                                           -8%
                                                                                                                                                     Report highlights ways in which social
                                                                                                                                                     capital can be strengthened:
                                           -10%
                                                                                                                                                     • Building institutional trust;
                                                                                                                                                     • Anti-corruption measures;
                                           -12%
                                                  30            35          40           45           50           55        60          65     70   • Engagement of civil society, etc.
                                                                                          Social Capital Score, peak
                                                                                                                                                     What Austria is going through is a decline
                                           Austria’s economic decline was large given its social capital starting point (as it                       in “Family & Community” and “Civic
                                           falls slightly below the trend line), but the general tendency implies that it                            Engagement” social capital – policies need
                                           would have been larger still if its initial social capital were weaker.                                   to address these variables.
Improving Social Capital has big prosperity pay-off

                                                 Reversing Austria's Social Capital decline would raise its overall prosperity
                                                                                 substantially
                                     79
                                                                                                                                                                        Besides being a component of
                                                                                                                                                                        prosperity itself, Social Capital has
  Predicted Prosperity Index Score

                                     78

                                     77
                                                                                                                                                                        crucial links to other sub-indices
                                                                                                                                                                        (trust in the business world and in
                                     76
                                                                                                                                                5th place globally      governance, for example) that
                                     75                                                                                                                                 amplify its effect on overall
                                     74
                                                                                                                                                                        prosperity.

                                     73

                                     72                                                                                                                                 Counterfactual: reversing Austria’s
                                          2007         2008     2009         2010         2011         2012         2013         2014         2015          2016
                                                                                                                                                                        Social Capital decline over the
                            Predicted path of Prosperity Index score above is the application of a regression coefficient to the reversed trend of Austria’s observed   past decade would see its global
                            Social Capital score decline between 2007 and 2016. The coefficient was estimated from an OLS regression of the PI on Social Capital
                            sub-index with year fixed effects, on the panel of CEE countries between 2007 and 2016: 0.68, significant at 1%. R2 0.81.                   prosperity ranking in 2016 go
                                                                                                                                                                        from 15th to 5th.
Social Capital: Learning to trust and help each other

                         Lithuanian Social Capital on the Rise
                      Trust in
                      police
                                                                                           Among all CEE countries, Lithuania has made the largest
     Sending financial help
       to other household
                                                                                           gains in Social Capital over the past ten years.
                      Making
                      friends
                                                                                           More than anything, it is the surge in general trust – public
                                                                                           trust in local police rose by 27 percentage points – that
               Treated with
                  respect                                                                  boosted its performance.

                  Donating                                                                 This is helped by the Lithuanian government’s resolute anti-
                  Voicing
                                                                                           corruption      programme,      synthesising   cross-sector
                  opinions                                                                 cooperation, better defined legal framework and
                                                                                           institutional design, as well as the implementation of
              Volunteering
                                                                                           transparency-enhancing technology such as e-government
                   Helping                                                                 services.
                   stranger

             Can rely on                                                                   But Lithuania’s social capital was also boosted by “Family &
           family or friends                                                               Community” type of Social Capital including inter-
                -5%              0%     5%        10%       15%       20%      25%   30%   household financial help, making friends
                                      Change in percentage points, 2007-2016
What is to be done in Austria?

                                                                            Austria can improve other areas of social capital that are less
                                                                                          directly affected by the economy
Have you volunteered your time to an organization in past year?

                                                                  45%

                                                                  40%
                                                                                                                              Ireland                            Donations and inter-household financial help are proxies for broader
                                                                  35%
                                                                                                              Netherlands                                        “Family & Community” and “Civic Engagement” social capital that
                                                                                               Slovenia
                                                                                                                      Switzerland                                were shown to have weak resilience.
                                                                                                        France
                                                                  30%                                                         Norway
                                                                                             Finland        Austria
                                                                                                     United Kingdom                                              •   Strengthen what’s there: perhaps lower levels in these variables
                                                                  25%
                                                                                                                                                                     reflect a move towards more “institutionalised” support – not
                             YES

                                                                  20%                                                                                                bad in itself, but trades-off social capital.

                                                                  15%
                                                                                                                                                                 •   Build what isn’t: volunteering is another form of this social capital
                                                                  10%                                                                                                and is lower in Austria (28%) than many other European
                                                                                                                                                                     countries. Help with time rather than money.
                                                                  5%

                                                                  0%
                                                                        0           20,000      40,000          60,000              80,000   100,000   120,000
                                                                                                     GDP per capita (PPP $), 2016
Key Findings from the CEE Prosperity Report
      KEY FINDING 1

     • Central and Eastern Europe’s convergence on Western Europe has been much faster in terms of prosperity than income alone. Most
       CEE countries deliver a prosperity surplus

      KEY FINDING 2

     • Central and Eastern Europe has one of the world’s largest deficits in social capital and this is holding back further prosperity growth.

      KEY FINDING 3

     • Social Capital, Governance, and Business Environment have a disproportionately large effect on CEE’s prosperity delivery.

      KEY FINDING 4

     • In an environment of slower global growth and one that is increasingly hostile to EU integration, CEE’s success depends on
       improving its own ability to deliver prosperity.

      KEY FINDING 5

     • Countries with high initial levels of social capital experienced less severe economic downturns between 2007 and 2016.

      KEY FINDING 6

     • Young Central and Eastern Europeans are more pro-business, better educated, have higher social capital and are more demanding
       of their governments - therein lies the opportunity to unlock prosperity, but also the challenge.
Benefiting from accession to EU

                                                                Social Capital                                                                                                 Business Environment
                                         120                                                                                                                    150

                                                                                                                         Business Environment score, 2007=100
        Social Capital score, 2007=100

                                         115                                                                                                                    140

                                         110                                                                                                                    130

                                         105                                                                                                                    120

                                         100                                                                                                                    110

                                          95                                                                                                                    100

                                          90                                                                                                                     90
                                               2007   2008   2009     2010   2011   2012   2013   2014    2015    2016                                                2007   2008   2009     2010   2011   2012   2013   2014    2015    2016

                                                  Albania           Macedonia       Montenegro           Serbia                                                          Albania           Macedonia       Montenegro           Serbia

                                                                     Governance
                                         115
                                                                                                                                                                EU accession has been a huge boost for prosperity
        Governance score, 2007=100

                                         110
                                                                                                                                                                in applicant countries. In order to comply with the
                                         105                                                                                                                    acquis communautaire, a range of policy and
                                         100                                                                                                                    institutional reforms need to be implemented,
                                                                                                                                                                which in turn improve performance in Governance,
                                          95
                                                                                                                                                                Business Environment, and Social Capital.
                                          90
                                               2007   2008   2009     2010   2011   2012   2013   2014    2015    2016

                                                  Albania           Macedonia       Montenegro           Serbia
How to Measure Prosperity?

                • Through literature review and regression analysis we select 104 variables that have statistically
   Selecting      significant and economically meaningful relationship with at least wealth or wellbeing.
   variables

                • We adopt distance-to-frontier approach to normalise variables of different units of measurement,
   Standardi      by comparing a country’s performance with the best and worst scenarios of the entire sample.
     sation

   Weighting
                • Each variable is assigned a weight, based on their varying significance to prosperity.
   Variables

                • In each of the nine pillars, variables’ distance-to-frontier scores are multiplied by their weights and
     Pillar
    scores
                  then summed to generate countries’ pillar scores.

                • The Prosperity Index score is determined by assigning equal weights to all nine pillars for each
   Prosperity
     Index        country. The mean of the nine pillars’ scores yields a country’s overall Prosperity score.
     score
Methodology: Social Capital
You can also read