Publican Sector Outlook: What does the future hold? - Deloitte

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Publican Sector Outlook: What does the future hold? - Deloitte
Publican Sector Outlook:
What does the future hold?
The publican sector has been severely impacted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic,
with domestic and international businesses experiencing closures like never before.

Introduction                                   as social distancing requirements will       In this article, we look at the challenges
The pub and hospitality industry plays         continue to impact on capacity and in        facing pubs in Ireland and the impact
a significant financial and social role in     turn profitability.                          COVID-19 has had on the industry.
its contribution to the Irish economy,
employing some 92,000 people across            Despite the encouraging news of the          We provide insight and analysis from
the sector, purchasing €1.1 billion worth      vaccine rollout this year, it appears pubs   Chris Kelly, Managing Director of the
of Irish inputs and exporting €1.25 billion    and restaurants in tourism destinations      Chris Kelly Group, who operate a number
worth of produce every year1. It has           favoured by international visitors could     of licenced premises in Dublin City
been an exceptional year for businesses        experience a lag in recovery; limited        centre and its suburbs, on his views and
operating in the hospitality sector. Rolling   numbers of overseas visitors are             experience in the industry, the current
lockdowns and repeated openings and            expected for the rest of the year and        challenges facing it, advice and key steps
closings of pubs has resulted in a year        potentially into 2022, as consumers          for those who may be in a stressed
with challenges never experienced              consider the risks with international        financial position and his outlook for
before. It has been particularly difficult     travel. Data firm OAG stated that it         the future. With the emergence of
for owners of ‘wet pubs’ who have              could be 2022/23 before the volume of        Private Equity investment and demand
remained closed for nearly twelve              international fliers return to the levels    for acquisitions, we also examine key
months. Looking at the sector from both        that had been expected for 20202.            considerations for licenced premises
a domestic and international standpoint,       Domestic tourism is however expected         operators in the months ahead.
businesses will undoubtedly continue to        to benefit, as people opt for short stay
face reduced revenues throughout 2021          vacations at home.

 1. The Drinks Industry Group of Ireland
 2. www.reuters.com
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Publican Sector Outlook: What does the future hold? - Deloitte
Publican Sector Market Outlook

Pre-Covid Market                               The uncertainty surrounding                   Payroll and staffing: Costs prior
Over the last decade, changes in               Brexit and the ongoing volatility and         to the current public health crisis
consumer behaviour and an increasingly         devaluation of Sterling has had a             were challenging for businesses as
competitive landscape have led to an           significant impact on the sector and          employment rates in Ireland were very
accelerated churn in the pub sector            operators across the border region in         high across all sectors and it was difficult
which has forced publicans to efficiently      addition to major cities such as Dublin       for many businesses to attract and retain
adapt their operating models.                  and Cork where historically there was a       good employees in the pub and services
                                               large volume of UK visitors.                  industry.
Although the industry has enjoyed
strong growth following the last financial     Rising cost pressures have been quite         The trading environment across rural
crisis in Ireland, there were signs prior to   challenging with a direct impact on           Ireland had also been significantly
the current public health crisis that the      profitability on the sector:                  impacted with the outlook for small
trading environment had become a lot                                                         rural pubs uncertain given the large
more challenging, as 2019 saw revenues         Insurance: The cost of insurance has          increase in rural pubs closing their doors
softening and cost pressures mounting          become a large burden and while               continuing. Regional pubs had to adapt
across the sector.                             additional premium increases have             to make themselves a destination for
                                               impacted on direct operating costs, there     people to travel to, with the main change
Changing consumer habits has been              has also been significant difficulty in       being towards gastro-pub offerings, as
the single largest challenge faced by          tackling insurance fraud, with the level of   well as increased entertainment to drive
publicans over the past number of years        management time and money required            footfall into premises.
with a younger generation of consumers         by businesses to mitigate against claims
now opting to socialise with friends in        increasing significantly.
private settings before attending a bar/
club setting later on in the night while       Rent: Additionally some publicans are
equally, consumers have become more            battling with historical upward-only rent
health conscious in recent years; both         review provisions in leases which has
changes having an impact on spend per          led to unsustainable rent levels on top
head in the bar sector.                        of an outdated rates system with little
                                               optimism in the sector that this will be
                                               resolved in the short term.

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Publican Sector Outlook: What does the future hold? - Deloitte
Publican Sector Market Outlook

Mr. Kelly, commenting on the challenges       City Centre footfall levels, and with it     Mr. Kelly commented that prior to the
which face the sector upon reopening          lunchtime and evening trade Monday to        current public health crisis, the future for
stated that “whilst many operators may        Friday. The reduction in tourism, events,    the sector was challenging but optimistic,
be fearful of the economic impacts of         and corporate travel will also have an       with the Gastro Pub sector in particular
the crisis which are yet to come, I would     effect, across cities and rural areas,       having great potential for growth whilst
be equally concerned on how people’s          tourism in particular for areas outside of   the ‘wet pub’ model is now seen as
habits may have changed. With the             Dublin. Certain rural locations will also    almost a different sector post Covid
exception of two brief periods when           suffer from a fall in corporate events       but still did have potential prior to the
indoor dining was allowed, people have        such as conferences etc, for example         current crisis.
now been confined to their houses             the upcoming months are usually the
for almost 12 months, it remains to be        time for large trade union conferences       Effect of Covid-19 on the Pub
seen if this will affect their habits going   which take place around the country,         Industry
forward”.                                     presumably these will all be moving to a     In March last year, pubs were asked to
                                              virtual model this year”.                    shut their doors with immediate effect.
When considering the impacts on city                                                       While some gastro pubs were able to
based locations versus those in more          Commenting on the sector outlook             trade for a period during the summer
suburban or rural areas Mr Kelly’s views      Morrissey’s Lisney state, “consumer          months, and again for three weeks in
are that “city locations will suffer in       confidence is likely to be connected         December due to their ability to provide
their own ways, the increase in people        to the national vaccine programme            a food offering, the ‘wet pubs’ have
working from home will obviously affect       which will be a key factor in businesses     remained shut almost one year on from
                                              returning to enjoying sustainable levels     their initial closure.
                                              of trade”.

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Publican Sector Outlook: What does the future hold? - Deloitte
Publican Sector Market Outlook

The level of liquidity required to retain key staff, key
suppliers and service ongoing debt obligations has been
significantly challenging across the sector given the
limited cash reserves held by many of these businesses
prior to the current crisis.

Drop in sales                                 Given the strenuous environment at            by having to close due to the current
The most obvious consequence of these         present there has been limited notice         pandemic. Proceedings were initiated
closures is the large loss of employment      provided to certain sectors with regards      by three Dublin bars - Sinnotts, The
and revenue for the sector, according         closures where most recently pubs             Leopardstown Inn and Lemon and Duke
to Drinks Industry Ireland, overall sales     had to close at 3pm on Christmas Eve.         - as well as Sean’s Bar in Athlone.
volumes were down 70.2% for the three         This resulted in huge losses to many
month period September to November            businesses who had to disregard large         Mr. Kelly as part of our discussions stated
2020 compared to the same three month         amounts of pre-purchased stock for            that the outcome of the test case will
period in 2019.                               the Christmas period with no ability to       have a large bearing on the ability of a
                                              recover these costs to date.                  number of businesses to pull through
Despite Government supports, lender                                                         the current crisis but reiterated his
forbearance and reduced expenditure,          In addition to the loss of value of stocks,   frustrations that such a test case had to
businesses continue to incur unavoidable      publicans were left in a situation having     be taken to allow businesses within the
costs during the periods of closure           to advise staff again that their jobs         sector rely upon business interruption
resulting in increased liquidity pressures.   were no longer available leaving 25,000       cover for 12 to 24 months of losses.
The level of liquidity required to retain     employees3 facing another extended
key staff, key suppliers and service          period on the Pandemic Unemployment           Reflecting on his own business (CKG),
ongoing debt obligations has been             Payment. Repeated closures have caused        and steps taken with regards his
significantly challenging across the sector   huge personal and financial stress to         operations last March, Mr. Kelly outlined
given the limited cash reserves held by       business owners and staff, with the           how he “immediately carried out a review
many of these businesses prior to the         uncertainty surrounding their jobs and        of all his operating costs and engaged
current crisis.                               future trading opportunities unknown.         with each of his key suppliers in an effort
                                              This has had a knock on effect to the         to protect cash reserves of the business
New research by the Drinks Industry           workforce from this sector whereby            and maintain a level of liquidity in his
Group of Ireland states more than 20%         personnel are now seeking employment          business to meet costs”. CKG availed of
of pubs in Ireland have continuing costs      in other areas of our economy resulting       Local Authority Restart grants, Covid
of up to €2,000 per week to sustain for       in key skill sets being lost when the         Restrictions Support Scheme, and the
items such as salaries, salary top-ups,       sector does reopen.                           Wage Subsidy Scheme to stem the losses
rent, and maintenance of premises.                                                          within his group but points out that the
These statistics should be of great           Welcome News                                  sector now needs clarity to ongoing
concern considering 60% of publicans          There was some welcome news                   support levels from the Government and
believe that government subsidies             recently for the sector when the High         commitment that they will continue for
cover only 20% or less of their costs         Court issued a decision in respect of         as long as the crisis lasts.
per month, while many publicans have          a “test case” brought by a number of
invested a significant amount of CAPEX        publicans (including Mr. Kelly), regarding    Commenting on the other challenges
to their premises to ensure adherence         business cancellation insurance cover         within the sector Mr. Kelly stated that
with relevant health and safety               in place prior to the public health crisis.   he “has tried to retain as many key staff
precautions and Government guidelines.        In what was considered a landmark             as possible, particularly in management
This situation is only compounded with        decision, the outcome of which affects        positions, but it is inevitable that
the pub’s inability to generate very little   claims made by more than 1,000 Irish          some may decide to seek alternative
revenue over the past 12 months.              pubs and restaurants, the High Court          employment in other sectors as the
                                              determined that the policy subject            continuing uncertainty drags on”.
                                              to the case, did cover losses incurred

3. The Drinks Industry Group of Ireland

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Publican Sector Outlook: What does the future hold? - Deloitte
Publican Sector Market Outlook

Additional concerns:                            Market Activity – Private Equity,              The report also stated that the impact
• Retention of staff will certainly be an       acquisition and consolidation                  of Covid on the Licence market for
  issue as those employed in the sector         According to Morrisey’s Lisney Licensed        extinguishment and transfer purposes
  look to other industries for longer term      Premises market review for 2020,               was a reduction of value in the order
  employment and job security.                  demand remained strong throughout              of 20% to 25% with prices somewhat
• Accumulated debt piles accrued                2020 with many purchasers pursuing             stabilised at €40,000.
  from the periods of closure will leave        opportunities via off-market approaches.
  many businesses in a vulnerable               In illustration of this point, 23% of market   The future value of licences will ultimately
  position when Government supports             transactions accounted for off-market          be influenced by their availability and
  and creditor forbearance filters out.         sales realising 49% of total market value      current value could possibly reduce
  According to research carried out by          in 2020. 7 property sales concluded            further should a large number of licences
  the Drinks Industry Group of Ireland,         during the Covid period of 2020 totalling      be brought to the market or cease
  one in four publicans have accumulated        approximately €12.4m and a further 7           to operate due to the impact of the
  debt of over €20,000 while 15% have           properties at contract stage totalling a       pandemic.
  accumulated over €50,0004.                    further combined €10.75m.
• Insurance Costs whilst the recent                                                            Looking forward, Morrisey’s Lisney
  ruling in favour of publicans against         Within the sector, the emergence of            believe “the initial months of 2021 will
  FBD Insurance in respect of their             Private Equity has become noteworthy           remain relatively quiet with limited public
  business interruption cover is positive,      and whilst traditionally licensed              offerings being made to the market,
  it will likely result in higher premiums in   premises have been acquired by owner           however, they are optimistic for the
  the longer term.                              operators that actively participate in the     future of the sector as a whole, citing the
• Change in consumer habits after a             running and operation of the premises,         industries resilience over the course of
  year of home drinking at off licence          Morrisey’s Lisney have reported                the last year including the adaptability
  prices, may result in consumers seeing        increased activity in the market by            and creativity of many publicans in the
  pub prices as bad value for money.            Private Equity funds. “Over the past 24        market”.
  Publicans may need to increase prices         months we have seen private equity
  slightly to make up for the long closure      take a considered interest in the Dublin       Mr Kelly in considering potential
  periods, but consumer resistance to           licensed premises property market.             opportunities in the market and whether
  any price hikes will definitely be a huge     This is due in part to the recovery of the     we may see consolidation or an increase
  factor.                                       sector throughout 2018 & 2019, and             in larger groups such as his holding a
• Liquidity Issues and access to credit         indeed early 2020 witnessing an uplift         number of pubs, he feels “there will be
  ability to raise new finance and/or           in both trading and underlying property        opportunities and while it’s a challenging
  access credit once businesses are             values, but also in part to increased          environment for all operators, the Wet
  fully operational again will certainly        competition within the investment sector       Pub is such an intrinsic part of our
  be a challenge particularly where             thereby encouraging private equity, and        society and culture, I feel confident
  there are legacy COVID-related debts          other investors, to seek opportunities         for it’s future. Unfortunately there will
  accumulated.                                  outside of the traditional investment          inevitably be certain businesses that are
                                                routes.”                                       unable to survive, and this will obviously
                                                                                               result in buy opportunities and group
                                                                                               consolidation”.

4. The Drinks Industry Group of Ireland

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Publican Sector Outlook: What does the future hold? - Deloitte
Publican Sector Market Outlook

What steps can businesses take?                                                               • Seek help - Business owners should
                                                  working capital in the business to allow
                                                                                                not be afraid to seek help from
We asked Mr. Kelly based on what he had           for a reopening in due course when
                                                                                                specialised advisors. Experienced
learnt from navigating the last crisis, still     restrictions are lifted will be key;
                                                                                                practitioners will often be able to
fresh in the mind of many in the sector,        • COVID Supports - As noted earlier
                                                                                                provide an options analysis for the
what advice he would give to those who            there are a range of COVID support
                                                                                                business to assist in determine the
may be in a stressed financial position.          measures available to businesses at
                                                                                                optimum strategy, to protect long-term
                                                  present in the form of Government
                                                                                                value, and the underlying asset base of
“It may seem like a cliché, but engage            supports and grants and every
                                                                                                the business.
with your lenders and suppliers                   business should ensure that they are
early. If you are in a highly stressed            availing of these;
                                                                                              Given the underlying liquidity challenges
position you’re going to need to make           • Open Dialogue - Early engagement
                                                                                              for all stakeholders in the industry,
arrangements with both, simply ignoring           with key stakeholders of the business
                                                                                              by developing an appropriate options
the problem won’t make it go away.                such as trade suppliers, staff members,
                                                                                              analysis, maintaining open dialogue with
Lenders will be aware of issues in the            and funders, is extremely important.
                                                                                              all stakeholders, and seeking help when
sector and although some suppliers                Consensual negotiations should be the
                                                                                              necessary, publicans can successfully
may well be facing their own challenges,          default starting position for businesses
                                                                                              navigate this period of volatility.
communication is key”.                            in distress. Given the levels of distress
                                                  across all sectors in the Irish economy
Advice from Deloitte                              at present, engaging early is likely to
Our Deloitte Restructuring team would             yield the best outcome for businesses,      “It may seem like a
also recommend the following practical
steps which businesses can take given
                                                  and should mitigate the likelihood of
                                                  a stakeholder or secured creditor of        cliché, but engage
the current challenges identified;
• Forecast and reforecast - Whilst
                                                  the business being “forced” to take a
                                                  position due to perhaps an event of
                                                                                              with your lenders
  the uncertainty associated with the
  threat of further/extended restrictions
                                                  default or inaction;
                                                • Maintain resilience - while the
                                                                                              and suppliers early.
  makes forecasting for the year ahead            priority for many in the sector will be     If you are in a highly
  a very difficult exercise, it is crucial        to secure the financial position of their
  that publicans continue to monitor              business, there is also a need to focus     stressed position
  and scrutinise all cash outflows in the         on leadership and staff commitment
  months ahead. Regular forecasting is            where possible. Ensuring that there is      you’re going to need
  encouraged, and whilst cash reserves
  will already be depleted for many
                                                  a proactive culture to decision making
                                                  and implementation or a recovery plan       to make arrangements
  publicans, ensuring there is a level of         will be key to the survival of business
                                                  during the pandemic;
                                                                                              with both, simply
                                                                                              ignoring the problem
                                                                                              won’t make it go
                                                                                              away. Lenders will be
                                                                                              aware of issues in the
                                                                                              sector and although
                                                                                              some suppliers may
                                                                                              well be facing their
                                                                                              own challenges
                                                                                              communication is key”.

                                                                                                                                          6
Publican Sector Market Outlook

  Conclusion
  While the battle for many publicans         The light at the end of the tunnel for     Additionally changing consumer
  became a last-ditch attempt to stay         many is the rollout of the Covid-19        trends will likely present new
  afloat during 2020, the outlook for         vaccines. Current indications from         opportunities for existing and new
  2021 unfortunately remains                  Government suggest that it will likely     market entrants as the sector
  challenging.                                be the end of the summer before 70%        diversifies to promote and engage
                                              of the population are vaccinated.          with consumers to drive footfall.
  The survival of certain pubs is
  contingent on the business model of         There will be some hope that a             Deloitte’s restructuring advisory team
  high consumer footfall at weekends          government roadmap will set out the        in Ireland, supported by our wider
  and peak seasons, a model that is           best and worst case scenarios for          Financial Advisory services (including
  materially challenged in the current        re-opening, with Living with Covid         tax, risk and accounting advisory
  public health crisis and maybe beyond       plan” a regular occurrence. The            teams), is best placed to advise clients
  due to a long term change in                prospect however of government             in navigating the current trading
  consumer habits.                            allowing wet pubs to reopen in the         environment. We have already
                                              absence of mass vaccination is             advised a number of businesses in
  The overall impact of the economic          considered very remote at this time.       seeking available options and have
  impact following Covid-19 is still                                                     provided support to clients in
  unknown, with many differing views          Whilst some publicans may never            navigating the current volatility in the
  ranging from a significant economic         reopen their doors, for others this will   market.
  uplift as consumers seek to spend           bring opportunity. Smaller businesses
  following lockdowns, versus those           with less access to liquidity are likely
  estimating a recession following an         to remain most challenged, we believe
  initial “jump” in economic activity, to a   this will lead to further consolidation
  significant economic impact for a           across the sector.
  number of years.

                                                                                                                                    7
Contacts
Mark Degnan                                                                                                   Dublin
Partner,                                                                                                      29 Earlsfort Terrace
Restructuring,                                                                                                Dublin 2
Financial Advisory Services,                                                                                  T: +353 1 417 2200
madegnan@deloitte.ie                                                                                          F: +353 1 417 2300

                                                                                                              Cork
Daryll McKenna                                                                                                No.6 Lapp’s Quay
Director,                                                                                                     Cork
Restructuring,                                                                                                T: +353 21 490 7000
Financial Advisory Services,                                                                                  F: +353 21 490 7001
dmckenna@deloitte.ie
                                                                                                              Limerick
                                                                                                              Deloitte and Touche House
Ailbhe O’Dwyer                                                                                                Charlotte Quay
Manager,                                                                                                      Limerick
Restructuring,                                                                                                T: +353 61 435500
Financial Advisory Services,                                                                                  F: +353 61 418310
aiodwyer@deloitte.ie
                                                                                                              Galway
                                                                                                              Galway Financial Services Centre
                                                                                                              Moneenageisha Road
                                                                                                              Galway
With thanks to                                                                                                T: +353 91 706000
Mr. Chris Kelly, Managing Director CKG                                                                        F: +353 91 706099
Mr. Tony Morrissey, Director, Lisney
                                                                                                              Belfast
                                                                                                              19 Bedford Street
                                                                                                              Belfast BT2 7EJ
                                                                                                              Northern Ireland
                                                                                                              T: +44 (0)28 9032 2861
                                                                                                              F: +44 (0)28 9023 4786

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